But the accord also threatens to provoke a political crisis in the US. President Bush wants to push it through by the end of next month so he can declare a military victory and claim his 2003 invasion has been vindicated. But by perpetuating the US presence in Iraq, the long-term settlement would undercut pledges by the Democratic presidential nominee, Barack Obama, to withdraw US troops if he is elected president in November.I'm reminded of a passage from another article which russilwvong quoted here:
Is it possible that the new president will have that kind of resolution? I think not; to my ear Clinton and Obama don't sound drained of hope or bright ideas, determined to cut losses and end the agony. Why should they? They're coming in fresh from the sidelines. Getting out, giving up, admitting defeat are not what we expect from the psychology of newly elected presidents who have just overcome all odds and battled through to personal victory. They've managed the impossible once; why not again? Planning for withdrawals might begin on Day One, but the plans will be hostage to events.With the agreement in place, it will be that much more difficult for Obama to withdraw.
At first, perhaps, all runs smoothly. Then things begin to happen. The situation on the first day has altered by the tenth. Some faction of Iraqis joins or drops out of the fight. A troublesome law is passed, or left standing. A helicopter goes down with casualties in two digits. The Green Zone is hit by a new wave of rockets or mortars from Sadr City in Baghdad. The US Army protests that the rockets or mortars were provided by Iran. The new president warns Iran to stay out of the fight. The government in Tehran dismisses the warning. This is already a long-established pattern. Why should we expect it to change? So it goes. At an unmarked moment somewhere between the third and the sixth month a sea change occurs: Bush's war becomes the new president's war, and getting out means failure, means defeat, means rising opposition at home, means no second term. It's not hard to see where this is going.
Yeah, I can picture the T-shirt:Here you go.
MY TAX DOLLARS "LIBERATED" IRAQ
AND ALL I GOT WAS THIS LOUSY
$5.00 PER GALLON UNLEADED
Bush wants 50 military bases, control of Iraqi airspace and legal immunity for all American soldiers and contractors
Mr. President, Iraq is sovereign...President Bush's definition of sovereignty is different than mine; to me, a "fully sovereign nation" would control its own airspace.
Let Freedom Reign!
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posted by MrMoonPie at 1:14 PM on June 6, 2008 [11 favorites]