Paris = Hot, McCain=Old Guy
August 6, 2008 6:42 AM Subscribe
Paris Responds John thought he would be clever and use Paris in his campaign ad... Paris one-ups him with an even BETTER ad..(slyt) maybe NSFW if females in bathing suits are frowned upon..
That was surprisingly good. Not, great, but good.
posted by Nick Verstayne at 6:48 AM on August 6, 2008 [11 favorites]
posted by Nick Verstayne at 6:48 AM on August 6, 2008 [11 favorites]
After watching the ad, I realized I'd never before heard her voice. I've only seen her smirk on the cover of magazines.
There's probably some feminist point to that, but I'm too distracted by the smirk. God, I hate that smirk.
posted by DU at 6:48 AM on August 6, 2008 [5 favorites]
There's probably some feminist point to that, but I'm too distracted by the smirk. God, I hate that smirk.
posted by DU at 6:48 AM on August 6, 2008 [5 favorites]
...it's funny. She even mocks her own image for a bit.
STOP CHANGING THE WORLD ON ME!
posted by mephron at 6:53 AM on August 6, 2008 [4 favorites]
STOP CHANGING THE WORLD ON ME!
posted by mephron at 6:53 AM on August 6, 2008 [4 favorites]
Burn, dude, BUUUUUURNNNNN!
posted by oddman at 6:54 AM on August 6, 2008 [2 favorites]
posted by oddman at 6:54 AM on August 6, 2008 [2 favorites]
yeah, that was mildly entertaining ... though she should be smoother with the self referential stuff.
at the point when she started praddling about offshore drilling and alternative energy, i kinda zoned out and thought wow ... i'm watching some hot babe with pink lipstick. and is that her nipple sticking out in her swimsuit? then the praddle sank in. oh, it's actually serious. of course, now that paris said it, it's going to sound silly.
i think i need to watch it again.
posted by lester at 6:56 AM on August 6, 2008
at the point when she started praddling about offshore drilling and alternative energy, i kinda zoned out and thought wow ... i'm watching some hot babe with pink lipstick. and is that her nipple sticking out in her swimsuit? then the praddle sank in. oh, it's actually serious. of course, now that paris said it, it's going to sound silly.
i think i need to watch it again.
posted by lester at 6:56 AM on August 6, 2008
I lol'd at, "I'll see you at the debates, bitches."
Maybe she's not such a vapid waste of skin after all.
posted by Hugh2d2 at 6:56 AM on August 6, 2008 [6 favorites]
Maybe she's not such a vapid waste of skin after all.
posted by Hugh2d2 at 6:56 AM on August 6, 2008 [6 favorites]
him with an even BETTER ad..(slyt)
Whoa, whoa. No need to call people names on the front page of metafilter like that. Okay, I get it. You don't like her.
posted by damn dirty ape at 6:59 AM on August 6, 2008 [4 favorites]
Whoa, whoa. No need to call people names on the front page of metafilter like that. Okay, I get it. You don't like her.
posted by damn dirty ape at 6:59 AM on August 6, 2008 [4 favorites]
More people are going to see this than the original McCain video. Even someone like Paris understands how the internet works (and what works on the internet) better than McCain does.
...at the point when she started praddling...
...then the praddle sank in.
This wouldn't sound nearly as dirty here if "praddle" was a real word.
posted by [NOT HERMITOSIS-IST] at 7:02 AM on August 6, 2008 [1 favorite]
...at the point when she started praddling...
...then the praddle sank in.
This wouldn't sound nearly as dirty here if "praddle" was a real word.
posted by [NOT HERMITOSIS-IST] at 7:02 AM on August 6, 2008 [1 favorite]
Saw that last night. We all knew that she knew exactly what she was doing with her image all along, but...pitch perfect in both nodding at and departing from her image.
posted by notsnot at 7:04 AM on August 6, 2008
posted by notsnot at 7:04 AM on August 6, 2008
Wow, the person I want to dick-punch after watching that video is NOT Paris Hilton!
posted by Mister_A at 7:04 AM on August 6, 2008 [1 favorite]
posted by Mister_A at 7:04 AM on August 6, 2008 [1 favorite]
Women make a vital contribution to all aspects of society and they deserve equal treatment and respect and stuff!
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 7:05 AM on August 6, 2008
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 7:05 AM on August 6, 2008
McCain's people responded with:
“It sounds like Paris Hilton supports John McCain’s ‘all of the above’ approach to America’s energy crisis - -including both alternatives and drilling. In reality, Paris Hilton may have a more substantive energy policy thanBarack Obama Barack Obama OR John McCain,” spokesman Tucker Bounds said.
/ I fixed that for them :)
posted by HuronBob at 7:07 AM on August 6, 2008
“It sounds like Paris Hilton supports John McCain’s ‘all of the above’ approach to America’s energy crisis - -including both alternatives and drilling. In reality, Paris Hilton may have a more substantive energy policy than
/ I fixed that for them :)
posted by HuronBob at 7:07 AM on August 6, 2008
God, it's like McCain can't even sling dirt correctly. That dude is so fucked.
posted by mkultra at 7:09 AM on August 6, 2008 [4 favorites]
posted by mkultra at 7:09 AM on August 6, 2008 [4 favorites]
That was amusing. Here's another link if funnyordie.com is blocked at your workplace. (Bite me, IT)
posted by nooneyouknow at 7:09 AM on August 6, 2008
posted by nooneyouknow at 7:09 AM on August 6, 2008
Pretty funny.
posted by fire&wings at 7:12 AM on August 6, 2008
posted by fire&wings at 7:12 AM on August 6, 2008
Ya know, I agree about the smirk, it's always driven me up a wall as well...but, compared to McCain's stupid ass smile, it is starting to be refreshing!
I do wonder if Paris and McCain had BOTH shown up in Sturgis, who would have received the bigger response???
posted by HuronBob at 7:12 AM on August 6, 2008
I do wonder if Paris and McCain had BOTH shown up in Sturgis, who would have received the bigger response???
posted by HuronBob at 7:12 AM on August 6, 2008
That dude is so fucked.
Really? Seen the polls lately?
posted by spicynuts at 7:12 AM on August 6, 2008
Really? Seen the polls lately?
posted by spicynuts at 7:12 AM on August 6, 2008
I'd be even more impressed were I to know that creating the piece was her idea. I suspect it was.
posted by bz at 7:12 AM on August 6, 2008
posted by bz at 7:12 AM on August 6, 2008
This doesn't absolve her of every single other bit of media coverage she's gotten, ever, but it's a damn good start.
posted by Ryvar at 7:14 AM on August 6, 2008
posted by Ryvar at 7:14 AM on August 6, 2008
I've never understood the hate on Paris. She's a fairly good looking, rich chick who made a pretty good pr0n flick, a kick-ass hamburger commercial , a middling reality show (as far as reality shows go) and a string of mediocre movies. And now, a sort of funny political ad.
I could see being indifferent to this, but hate?
posted by signal at 7:15 AM on August 6, 2008 [2 favorites]
I could see being indifferent to this, but hate?
posted by signal at 7:15 AM on August 6, 2008 [2 favorites]
Really? Seen the polls lately?
Uhh...yes. Have you? "Behind by less" isn't a winning hand yet.
posted by DU at 7:16 AM on August 6, 2008 [5 favorites]
Uhh...yes. Have you? "Behind by less" isn't a winning hand yet.
posted by DU at 7:16 AM on August 6, 2008 [5 favorites]
Maybe she's not such a vapid waste of skin after all.
I've been wondering if maybe she's actually smart as a whip, trolling America AND making big bucks (not that she didn't already have them) doing it.
posted by TheOnlyCoolTim at 7:16 AM on August 6, 2008 [1 favorite]
I've been wondering if maybe she's actually smart as a whip, trolling America AND making big bucks (not that she didn't already have them) doing it.
posted by TheOnlyCoolTim at 7:16 AM on August 6, 2008 [1 favorite]
My irrational affection for Paris Hilton has been vindicated!
posted by Alvy Ampersand at 7:20 AM on August 6, 2008
posted by Alvy Ampersand at 7:20 AM on August 6, 2008
I've been wondering if maybe she's actually smart as a whip, trolling America AND making big bucks (not that she didn't already have them) doing it.
Could be... we've been dumb enough to fall for it before.
posted by Hugh2d2 at 7:23 AM on August 6, 2008
Could be... we've been dumb enough to fall for it before.
posted by Hugh2d2 at 7:23 AM on August 6, 2008
How embarrassing is that? Having Paris Hilton score on you.
posted by RavinDave at 7:25 AM on August 6, 2008 [1 favorite]
posted by RavinDave at 7:25 AM on August 6, 2008 [1 favorite]
Regarding the polls, they always tighten up at this point in the race, and this race is going to be pretty tight - I think the Big O wins by 3-5 points in the end, but it could be a little more if he completely eviscerates McCain in the debates and if his people keep making these stupid mistakes (like essentially calling the youth of America stupid and getting them riled up to come out and vote for Obama). I don't think we're going to see a landslide win for O because there's still a lot of knee-jerk racism to overcome; there are people that would vote for McCain over Obama even if McCain promised to personally come over and literally bite their nuts off if elected, because at least he ain't black.
posted by Mister_A at 7:28 AM on August 6, 2008 [8 favorites]
posted by Mister_A at 7:28 AM on August 6, 2008 [8 favorites]
I believe that merits an 'Oooh, snap'.
I do like being pleasantly surprised by people.
posted by Happy Dave at 7:30 AM on August 6, 2008 [5 favorites]
I do like being pleasantly surprised by people.
posted by Happy Dave at 7:30 AM on August 6, 2008 [5 favorites]
I'm so heartened by this. Now I want to hear her economic strategy and foreign policy position. Either she's smarter than our real candidates, or she's picked better advisors, which makes her... smarter than our real... candidates...
posted by Tubes at 7:30 AM on August 6, 2008 [17 favorites]
posted by Tubes at 7:30 AM on August 6, 2008 [17 favorites]
Uhh...yes. Have you? "Behind by less" isn't a winning hand yet.
I watch NY1 every morning while getting dressed. Every morning they report the poll numbers. Yesterday they were in a dead heat. Give me some time I will google and see if I can find which poll they are using.
posted by spicynuts at 7:31 AM on August 6, 2008
I watch NY1 every morning while getting dressed. Every morning they report the poll numbers. Yesterday they were in a dead heat. Give me some time I will google and see if I can find which poll they are using.
posted by spicynuts at 7:31 AM on August 6, 2008
I'm thinking this could be a slam-dunk if we put Paris in as VP...or at least 2nd Lady.
posted by HuronBob at 7:31 AM on August 6, 2008
posted by HuronBob at 7:31 AM on August 6, 2008
Shucks. She had me at the cryptkeeper joke.
posted by cowbellemoo at 7:35 AM on August 6, 2008
posted by cowbellemoo at 7:35 AM on August 6, 2008
Give me some time I will google and see if I can find which poll they are using.
Don't bother
...this race is going to be pretty tight - I think the Big O wins by 3-5 points in the end...I don't think we're going to see a landslide win...
3-5 points is a landslide, depending on how you define "landslide".
posted by DU at 7:36 AM on August 6, 2008
Don't bother
...this race is going to be pretty tight - I think the Big O wins by 3-5 points in the end...I don't think we're going to see a landslide win...
3-5 points is a landslide, depending on how you define "landslide".
posted by DU at 7:36 AM on August 6, 2008
Now, I'm really, really hoping for a rebuttal video from Britney Spears where she trashes McCain, too.
posted by oddman at 7:37 AM on August 6, 2008
posted by oddman at 7:37 AM on August 6, 2008
Ok very quickly, from here (first google result for 2008 election polls)
"Zogby had Obama ahead by 10% nationally last month... that has dwindled to nothing. The Suffolk University poll here of Massachusetts voters also shows a narrowing Obama lead.
This is the first AP/Ipsos' national poll (Obama +9%). With the narrowing Obama lead across several pollsters and several states, AP/Ipsos probably would have had Obama ahead comfortably by 15% or so if they were polling last month. Just a guess. Or maybe they were polling and did not want to release those results ;-). "
So Zogby has them pretty much dead even, where Ipsos has Obama realtively comfortably ahead but dwindling. So, depending on your sources, we are both right.
posted by spicynuts at 7:37 AM on August 6, 2008
"Zogby had Obama ahead by 10% nationally last month... that has dwindled to nothing. The Suffolk University poll here of Massachusetts voters also shows a narrowing Obama lead.
This is the first AP/Ipsos' national poll (Obama +9%). With the narrowing Obama lead across several pollsters and several states, AP/Ipsos probably would have had Obama ahead comfortably by 15% or so if they were polling last month. Just a guess. Or maybe they were polling and did not want to release those results ;-). "
So Zogby has them pretty much dead even, where Ipsos has Obama realtively comfortably ahead but dwindling. So, depending on your sources, we are both right.
posted by spicynuts at 7:37 AM on August 6, 2008
Already checked, Paris is currently ineligible to run due to age.
posted by garlic at 7:39 AM on August 6, 2008
posted by garlic at 7:39 AM on August 6, 2008
don't bother
From your own link, here are the top polls. I'd say it's not a definitive landslide when half the polls have them at a pretty dead heat:
AP-Ipsos 7/31-8/4/08 833 RV 41 47
Rasmussen 8/1-3/08 3000 LV 47 46
Gallup 7/31-8/2/08 2684 RV 44 45
Zogby 7/31-8/1/08 1011 LV 42 41
Rasmussen 7/29-31/08 3000 LV 46 47
Gallup 7/28-30/08 2679 RV 44 45
Economist/YouGov 7/28-29/08 1000 A 37 44
CNN 7/27-29/08 914 RV 44 51 -
Rasmussen 7/26-28/08 3000 LV 46 47
Research 2000 7/25-27/08 1100 LV 39 51
posted by spicynuts at 7:39 AM on August 6, 2008
From your own link, here are the top polls. I'd say it's not a definitive landslide when half the polls have them at a pretty dead heat:
AP-Ipsos 7/31-8/4/08 833 RV 41 47
Rasmussen 8/1-3/08 3000 LV 47 46
Gallup 7/31-8/2/08 2684 RV 44 45
Zogby 7/31-8/1/08 1011 LV 42 41
Rasmussen 7/29-31/08 3000 LV 46 47
Gallup 7/28-30/08 2679 RV 44 45
Economist/YouGov 7/28-29/08 1000 A 37 44
CNN 7/27-29/08 914 RV 44 51 -
Rasmussen 7/26-28/08 3000 LV 46 47
Research 2000 7/25-27/08 1100 LV 39 51
posted by spicynuts at 7:39 AM on August 6, 2008
(Also, I wouldn't call 5 points all that tight. Keep in mind that poll percentages are not odds, they are distributions. That is, if on election night the polls say Obama has a lead of 52 to 47, that doesn't mean his chances of winning are a mere 52%. To illustrate this, imagine his lead to be 60/40 in the polls. The chances of winning is then near 100%.)
posted by DU at 7:40 AM on August 6, 2008
posted by DU at 7:40 AM on August 6, 2008
mephron wrote: ...it's funny. She even mocks her own image for a bit.
No shit. She's been doing that since day one. Not in any way a dafty, that Paris.
posted by jack_mo at 7:42 AM on August 6, 2008
No shit. She's been doing that since day one. Not in any way a dafty, that Paris.
posted by jack_mo at 7:42 AM on August 6, 2008
"Paris is currently ineligible to run due to age." as VP or 2nd Lady? 'Cuz I'm thinking that Paris is older than Monica was.
posted by HuronBob at 7:42 AM on August 6, 2008
posted by HuronBob at 7:42 AM on August 6, 2008
Ok what are his chances of winning if 3 out of 4 polls have it at a 1 point difference?
posted by spicynuts at 7:42 AM on August 6, 2008
posted by spicynuts at 7:42 AM on August 6, 2008
(also, DU, I'm not trying to be an asshole..I'm just curious how I should be feeling since every morning I'm aghast that my news outlet shows this thing as a dead heat).
posted by spicynuts at 7:43 AM on August 6, 2008
posted by spicynuts at 7:43 AM on August 6, 2008
Ok what are his chances of winning if 3 out of 4 polls have it at a 1 point difference?
You said "half" a minute ago. McCain is surging!
The composite diff is about 2.5 points. And much of McCain's recent "bounce" is due to the known-bad USA Today poll that showed him with a 4 pt lead (!!). So let's say it's Obama by 3 points. For now.
I am chuckling at your denial, though. You remind me of me in 2004.
posted by DU at 7:46 AM on August 6, 2008
You said "half" a minute ago. McCain is surging!
The composite diff is about 2.5 points. And much of McCain's recent "bounce" is due to the known-bad USA Today poll that showed him with a 4 pt lead (!!). So let's say it's Obama by 3 points. For now.
I am chuckling at your denial, though. You remind me of me in 2004.
posted by DU at 7:46 AM on August 6, 2008
What denial?? I am voting for Obama. And I'm just amazed that this thing is even close at all. But I live in NYC so my perception is skewed.
posted by spicynuts at 7:49 AM on August 6, 2008 [1 favorite]
posted by spicynuts at 7:49 AM on August 6, 2008 [1 favorite]
I've been wondering if maybe she's actually smart as a whip, trolling America AND making big bucks
It takes about 30 seconds of watching The Simple Life for it to be excruciatingly obvious that Paris & Nicole Richie are simply playing caricatures of themselves. (I know this, because that is all I could stand to watch.) Is she really a pampered, shallow person? Sure, I don't doubt that. Is she really a sex-obsessed naif with the IQ of a sand flea who just happens to be followed by paparazzi everywhere she goes? Not likely. She's built a career out of tirelessly, expertly managing the media perception of herself. Our perception of her is exactly what she wants it to be.
posted by designbot at 7:52 AM on August 6, 2008 [5 favorites]
It takes about 30 seconds of watching The Simple Life for it to be excruciatingly obvious that Paris & Nicole Richie are simply playing caricatures of themselves. (I know this, because that is all I could stand to watch.) Is she really a pampered, shallow person? Sure, I don't doubt that. Is she really a sex-obsessed naif with the IQ of a sand flea who just happens to be followed by paparazzi everywhere she goes? Not likely. She's built a career out of tirelessly, expertly managing the media perception of herself. Our perception of her is exactly what she wants it to be.
posted by designbot at 7:52 AM on August 6, 2008 [5 favorites]
As much as I hate to admit it, that was funny.
posted by Guy_Inamonkeysuit at 7:54 AM on August 6, 2008
posted by Guy_Inamonkeysuit at 7:54 AM on August 6, 2008
essentially calling the youth of America stupid and getting them riled up to come out and vote for Obama
I really really really don't want an Obama win to depend on the youth vote. Because there isn't one.
posted by Lentrohamsanin at 7:55 AM on August 6, 2008
I really really really don't want an Obama win to depend on the youth vote. Because there isn't one.
posted by Lentrohamsanin at 7:55 AM on August 6, 2008
spicynuts, the polls showed a very tight race between GHW Bush and WJ Clinton in 1992. Just sayin'. It's a natural thing for the polls to be tight at this point in the race; I would actually be more worried if Obama was up by 15 or 20 because I would suspect it was a hiccup or some black swan event that would quickly cause a rebound. Dead heat is just fine at this point.
posted by Mister_A at 7:57 AM on August 6, 2008
posted by Mister_A at 7:57 AM on August 6, 2008
In a tight election, Lentro, giving away 1% is a mistake that can sink you. Lots of young people are going to vote, as they always do. It won't be 75% of people under 25, but still we're talking about a few million votes cast by that demo in November. It's stupid to alienate them.
posted by Mister_A at 7:59 AM on August 6, 2008
posted by Mister_A at 7:59 AM on August 6, 2008
spicynuts, the polls showed a very tight race between GHW Bush and WJ Clinton in 1992. Just sayin'. It's a natural thing for the polls to be tight at this point in the race;
Did they not also show a very tight race between Kerry and Bush? What I'm responding to is the assertion above that McCain is going to get 'destroyed'. Seems to me it could go either way. Like I said, I'm in a liberal echo chamber here in NYC so I have no idea what word on the street is in places like Ohio, Michigan, etc.
posted by spicynuts at 7:59 AM on August 6, 2008
Did they not also show a very tight race between Kerry and Bush? What I'm responding to is the assertion above that McCain is going to get 'destroyed'. Seems to me it could go either way. Like I said, I'm in a liberal echo chamber here in NYC so I have no idea what word on the street is in places like Ohio, Michigan, etc.
posted by spicynuts at 7:59 AM on August 6, 2008
black swan event
Playing the race card, are we, Mister_A? I... see.
posted by Guy_Inamonkeysuit at 8:00 AM on August 6, 2008
Playing the race card, are we, Mister_A? I... see.
posted by Guy_Inamonkeysuit at 8:00 AM on August 6, 2008
Seems to me it could go either way.
I always find looking at this to be a bit more informative than nation wide polls in terms of what is going on. Because of the importance of the electoral college, you want to see the state by state results, not nation wide.
posted by never used baby shoes at 8:06 AM on August 6, 2008 [1 favorite]
I always find looking at this to be a bit more informative than nation wide polls in terms of what is going on. Because of the importance of the electoral college, you want to see the state by state results, not nation wide.
posted by never used baby shoes at 8:06 AM on August 6, 2008 [1 favorite]
It won't be 75% of people under 25...
I don't have any numbers here, but I definitely remember hearing that the 2004 election saw unprecedented numbers of youth votes. It's just that all numbers were up, so it was somewhat drowned out. I think 2006 had a relatively high youth turnout too, but...
oh crap, I'll just look for the damn numbers already!
OK, I didn't see exactly what I was looking for, but here: 2000 vs 2004.
posted by DU at 8:07 AM on August 6, 2008
I don't have any numbers here, but I definitely remember hearing that the 2004 election saw unprecedented numbers of youth votes. It's just that all numbers were up, so it was somewhat drowned out. I think 2006 had a relatively high youth turnout too, but...
oh crap, I'll just look for the damn numbers already!
OK, I didn't see exactly what I was looking for, but here: 2000 vs 2004.
posted by DU at 8:07 AM on August 6, 2008
HuronBob: "McCain's people responded with:
..........spokesman Tucker Bounds said.
Tucker?
TUCKER?
Please, parents of the future, take note: naming your kid Tucker is also a punishable form of child abuse.
posted by KevinSkomsvold at 8:10 AM on August 6, 2008
..........spokesman Tucker Bounds said.
Tucker?
TUCKER?
Please, parents of the future, take note: naming your kid Tucker is also a punishable form of child abuse.
posted by KevinSkomsvold at 8:10 AM on August 6, 2008
(Just noticed the weighted average at the bottom of my links. From 37% to 48% turnout. That's a 33% increase and all without the energizing influence of Obama's youthful campaign.)
posted by DU at 8:12 AM on August 6, 2008
posted by DU at 8:12 AM on August 6, 2008
I'm not buying it, she still sucks. Any parrot can read lines from a card. Someone else thought this was a clever idea, which I guess it is, but I'm not raising my opinion of the Paris Hilton, just cuz of this. Maybe if she keeps calling bullshit on politicians and contributes something positive to culture then she'd be respectable, but even if her shallowness is calculated what's so sly about that?
posted by Liquidwolf at 8:19 AM on August 6, 2008 [2 favorites]
posted by Liquidwolf at 8:19 AM on August 6, 2008 [2 favorites]
This early, polls are damn near worthless. Huge chunks of the electorate really aren't paying attention yet, and won't until their prime-time television gets preempted for the conventions.
I found this video to be hysterical and delightful. Her energy proposal is a hell of a lot more coherent than McCain's.
posted by EatTheWeek at 8:20 AM on August 6, 2008
I found this video to be hysterical and delightful. Her energy proposal is a hell of a lot more coherent than McCain's.
posted by EatTheWeek at 8:20 AM on August 6, 2008
Not bad, thanks for the electoral college and historical turnout links people. I also suspect that national polls are weighted against peripatetic younger voters, esp. if these are telephone polls.
Now I'm gonna go watch CSPAN - Lindsay Lohan's giving a speech on catastrophic care coverage for the uninsured.
posted by Mister_A at 8:22 AM on August 6, 2008
Now I'm gonna go watch CSPAN - Lindsay Lohan's giving a speech on catastrophic care coverage for the uninsured.
posted by Mister_A at 8:22 AM on August 6, 2008
to quote family guy:
America loves hot, white jail-bait ass!
Wait a minute..... that is the smartest thing anyone has ever said about anything.
posted by shmegegge at 8:23 AM on August 6, 2008
America loves hot, white jail-bait ass!
Wait a minute..... that is the smartest thing anyone has ever said about anything.
posted by shmegegge at 8:23 AM on August 6, 2008
If anyone's interested in the relationship between polls and odds of winning, 538 is pretty much devoted to the question.
Paris' stock (on my own personal esteem exchange) went way up when I saw this video. It's not like she wrote a single word of the skit, but she pulled it off. She sounded assured and in touch with the material during the various-policy-words-rattle-off, and she was even funny. Having seen her in House Of Wax, I would never have predicted that she could sound informed and be funny, doing any material, under any direction, ever.
posted by damehex at 8:26 AM on August 6, 2008 [5 favorites]
Paris' stock (on my own personal esteem exchange) went way up when I saw this video. It's not like she wrote a single word of the skit, but she pulled it off. She sounded assured and in touch with the material during the various-policy-words-rattle-off, and she was even funny. Having seen her in House Of Wax, I would never have predicted that she could sound informed and be funny, doing any material, under any direction, ever.
posted by damehex at 8:26 AM on August 6, 2008 [5 favorites]
I'm not buying it, she still sucks. Any parrot can read lines from a card. Someone else thought this was a clever idea, which I guess it is, but I'm not raising my opinion of the Paris Hilton, just cuz of this. Maybe if she keeps calling bullshit on politicians and contributes something positive to culture then she'd be respectable, but even if her shallowness is calculated what's so sly about that?
It's... just... FUNNY! THAT'S WHAT IT IS!
posted by katillathehun at 8:29 AM on August 6, 2008
It's... just... FUNNY! THAT'S WHAT IT IS!
posted by katillathehun at 8:29 AM on August 6, 2008
It's... just... FUNNY! THAT'S WHAT IT IS!
OK then. I can deal with that!
posted by Liquidwolf at 8:34 AM on August 6, 2008
OK then. I can deal with that!
posted by Liquidwolf at 8:34 AM on August 6, 2008
rich chick who made a pretty good pr0n flick
My god, what kind of freakishly awful pr0n are you watching?
posted by Dennis Murphy at 8:36 AM on August 6, 2008 [4 favorites]
My god, what kind of freakishly awful pr0n are you watching?
posted by Dennis Murphy at 8:36 AM on August 6, 2008 [4 favorites]
I'm not buying it, she still sucks. Any parrot can read lines from a card. Someone else thought this was a clever idea
Yes but you know what? She had to agree to do it and put energy into making it convincing. She could have just as easily said "oh. my. god. puh. leez." and scooted off the Rodeo Drive instead of getting on board the project when the idea was presented to her.
posted by spicynuts at 8:37 AM on August 6, 2008
Yes but you know what? She had to agree to do it and put energy into making it convincing. She could have just as easily said "oh. my. god. puh. leez." and scooted off the Rodeo Drive instead of getting on board the project when the idea was presented to her.
posted by spicynuts at 8:37 AM on August 6, 2008
On the one hand Paris has never touched the Hilton trust fund money she lives completely off of her own earnings.
On the other hand, according to former head-writer Tina Fey, when she hosted Saturday Night Live she was shallow, lazy and had no sense of humor. She wanted to do sketches making of fun of girls she didn't like. She wanted to play Jessica Simpson in a sketch "because she's fat". There was even a bet amongst the crew on whether or not she would ask any personal questions about anyone else. Near the end of her week she asked if "Maya Rudolph was a Mexican." and counted that.
So she is self-possessed, shallow and willfully ignorant but she isn't stupid.
Funny bit though.
posted by Bonzai at 8:43 AM on August 6, 2008 [1 favorite]
On the other hand, according to former head-writer Tina Fey, when she hosted Saturday Night Live she was shallow, lazy and had no sense of humor. She wanted to do sketches making of fun of girls she didn't like. She wanted to play Jessica Simpson in a sketch "because she's fat". There was even a bet amongst the crew on whether or not she would ask any personal questions about anyone else. Near the end of her week she asked if "Maya Rudolph was a Mexican." and counted that.
So she is self-possessed, shallow and willfully ignorant but she isn't stupid.
Funny bit though.
posted by Bonzai at 8:43 AM on August 6, 2008 [1 favorite]
I'm waiting to see what her policy is on spice farming.
</geek>
posted by mystyk at 8:46 AM on August 6, 2008
</geek>
posted by mystyk at 8:46 AM on August 6, 2008
So, yeah. I once went to a focus group that paid me and eleven other people a hundred bucks to talk about what I liked and didn't like about a new type of Twinkie for an hour and a half. If they're gathering that much info about snack cakes, you can be damn certain they've got an entire hard drive of data on what makes Paris Hilton profitable.
What did you think Myspace was for? It's notoriously difficult to gather data regarding teen/early twenties consumers. On social networking sites, it's given away freely. Excessively. Myspace, Facebook, etc. are a market research goldmine.
The genius of Paris Hilton Inc. is that she has people to study that information for her. That and she doesn't really have to give one tenth of a goddamn what anyone thinks of her, therefore rendering her indestructible. It's either that or the Teflon in her spray-tan (it gives her a glow, too! HOT.)
posted by louche mustachio at 8:48 AM on August 6, 2008
Ok what are his chances of winning if 3 out of 4 polls have it at a 1 point difference?
I like how the pollsters have gotten everyone obsessed over popular vote polls. I know doing state-by-state polls is hard (like math), but that's how our system works so it seems negligent to not use that.
posted by smackfu at 8:53 AM on August 6, 2008 [2 favorites]
I like how the pollsters have gotten everyone obsessed over popular vote polls. I know doing state-by-state polls is hard (like math), but that's how our system works so it seems negligent to not use that.
posted by smackfu at 8:53 AM on August 6, 2008 [2 favorites]
She's not really my type so her hotness powers don't work on me much.
posted by Liquidwolf at 8:54 AM on August 6, 2008
posted by Liquidwolf at 8:54 AM on August 6, 2008
So, yeah. I once went to a focus group that paid me and eleven other people a hundred bucks to talk about what I liked and didn't like about a new type of Twinkie for an hour and a half.
You got paid for that? When i did market research at the mall, people did it for free all the time. Food and movie trailers, people would do for free. Cars (because we had minimum yearly salary requirements) and stuff like pesticides (cause who wants to talk about that?), we had to pay money for.
Dirty secret of the market research industry (at least as of the late 1990s), when screening people for market research studies, we could have up to 10% of our sample be african american/minority. But there was no minimum. We were actively discourage from having any African Americans in the survey at all. And this was in southern MD, where the population of black shoppers in our mall was probably north of 20%.
Nothing more embarassing than recruiting a black shopper and someone else having already filled the quota. The way we got out of it was that the shift manager would say, "Great, so can I just have your zipcode", and then whatever zipcode they gave, she'd say.. "Oh, sorry, we just filled our quota on that zipcode." They actually called black shoppers 'zips' or 'zipcodes'. The manager would often say things like "No zips left on this one, as we were heading back out to the mall.
So, anyway, just thought I'd say I'm looking forward to our first zipcode president.
posted by empath at 9:10 AM on August 6, 2008 [8 favorites]
You got paid for that? When i did market research at the mall, people did it for free all the time. Food and movie trailers, people would do for free. Cars (because we had minimum yearly salary requirements) and stuff like pesticides (cause who wants to talk about that?), we had to pay money for.
Dirty secret of the market research industry (at least as of the late 1990s), when screening people for market research studies, we could have up to 10% of our sample be african american/minority. But there was no minimum. We were actively discourage from having any African Americans in the survey at all. And this was in southern MD, where the population of black shoppers in our mall was probably north of 20%.
Nothing more embarassing than recruiting a black shopper and someone else having already filled the quota. The way we got out of it was that the shift manager would say, "Great, so can I just have your zipcode", and then whatever zipcode they gave, she'd say.. "Oh, sorry, we just filled our quota on that zipcode." They actually called black shoppers 'zips' or 'zipcodes'. The manager would often say things like "No zips left on this one, as we were heading back out to the mall.
So, anyway, just thought I'd say I'm looking forward to our first zipcode president.
posted by empath at 9:10 AM on August 6, 2008 [8 favorites]
I came across this argument in the HuffPo (screaming echo chamber though it is) and I'd be interested to know what Political MeFi folks reckon about its argument. I don't know enough about the details to determine if it's a good argument or whistling in the wind.
I'd also be interested to know if Ms Hilton wrote that herself. I'd be willing to bet she didn't, but, again, I don't know how to find out.
posted by Sparx at 9:13 AM on August 6, 2008
I'd also be interested to know if Ms Hilton wrote that herself. I'd be willing to bet she didn't, but, again, I don't know how to find out.
posted by Sparx at 9:13 AM on August 6, 2008
I'd be interested to know what Political MeFi folks reckon about its argument.
I just go by 538. He was dead right about the primaries more often than not, so I trust his modeling. He's got Obama with a slight lead (and his numbers are what he thinks the election will look like in November, not 'if the election were held today', which is what the pollsters are checking.
posted by empath at 9:17 AM on August 6, 2008
I just go by 538. He was dead right about the primaries more often than not, so I trust his modeling. He's got Obama with a slight lead (and his numbers are what he thinks the election will look like in November, not 'if the election were held today', which is what the pollsters are checking.
posted by empath at 9:17 AM on August 6, 2008
I check out these two every so often, Electoral Count (where closely contested states not yet counted) and No Toss-Up (with all states counted even if margin is razor thin), both from Real Clear Politics. Both show Obama way ahead.
posted by marsha56 at 9:17 AM on August 6, 2008
posted by marsha56 at 9:17 AM on August 6, 2008
He was dead right about the primaries more often than not, so I trust his modeling.
I like that site, but he's changed his modeling quite a bit since the primaries so I'd consider it untested at this point.
posted by DU at 9:21 AM on August 6, 2008
I like that site, but he's changed his modeling quite a bit since the primaries so I'd consider it untested at this point.
posted by DU at 9:21 AM on August 6, 2008
God damn it. I feel like the sky is falling, I can't be sure if water is still wet or fire is hot because all of my internal instruments for judging reality are completely out of whack and are going to totally need to be recalibrated.
Because I just saw something with Paris Hilton that made me kind of like her.
And that shit is just fucked right the hell up.
posted by quin at 9:33 AM on August 6, 2008 [3 favorites]
Because I just saw something with Paris Hilton that made me kind of like her.
And that shit is just fucked right the hell up.
posted by quin at 9:33 AM on August 6, 2008 [3 favorites]
he's changed his modeling quite a bit since the primaries so I'd consider it untested at this point.
I knew that, but let me rephrase -- I trust his ability to pick and appropriate model. He switched his models up a bit during the primaries, as well, depending on the state.
posted by empath at 9:34 AM on August 6, 2008
I knew that, but let me rephrase -- I trust his ability to pick and appropriate model. He switched his models up a bit during the primaries, as well, depending on the state.
posted by empath at 9:34 AM on August 6, 2008
McCain Offers His Wife Up to Topless Biker Babe Beauty Contest
Hot.
posted by homunculus at 9:35 AM on August 6, 2008
Hot.
posted by homunculus at 9:35 AM on August 6, 2008
Other polling analysis sites worth looking at:
Election Projection (For what it's worth, the only site that I know of with a Republican bias)
Pollster.com (Along with 538, pretty much the gold standard for this sort of thing)
Princeton Election Consortium (More of a snapshot of current polls than 538's forward-looking analysis, but good for getting a look at where the race stands today.)
posted by EarBucket at 9:37 AM on August 6, 2008 [3 favorites]
Election Projection (For what it's worth, the only site that I know of with a Republican bias)
Pollster.com (Along with 538, pretty much the gold standard for this sort of thing)
Princeton Election Consortium (More of a snapshot of current polls than 538's forward-looking analysis, but good for getting a look at where the race stands today.)
posted by EarBucket at 9:37 AM on August 6, 2008 [3 favorites]
Obama has a nice dig on McCain for the ridiculous tire pressure thing.
It's like these guys take pride in being ignorant.
They think it's funny that they're making fun of something that is actually true.
posted by afu at 9:39 AM on August 6, 2008 [5 favorites]
It's like these guys take pride in being ignorant.
They think it's funny that they're making fun of something that is actually true.
posted by afu at 9:39 AM on August 6, 2008 [5 favorites]
The part that won me over was when she spent 4 second reading the magazine before announcing "Maui."
posted by Joey Michaels at 9:40 AM on August 6, 2008 [1 favorite]
posted by Joey Michaels at 9:40 AM on August 6, 2008 [1 favorite]
(As far as my own predictions go, I think Obama has a floor of about 200 electoral votes, and a ceiling of 400. McCain, on the other hand, has a ceiling of about 340, but a floor around 140. Obama's the one with the bigger cushion. That doesn't mean he can't lose, but I'd put McCain's odds somewhere around one in four.
posted by EarBucket at 9:46 AM on August 6, 2008 [1 favorite]
posted by EarBucket at 9:46 AM on August 6, 2008 [1 favorite]
afu, I agree about the tire gauge thing–it's a common sense thing that your friggin' mechanic knows and may well have mentioned to you; it's an easy way to get better gas mileage, and so of course it is worth lampooning? That really turned me off (even more) to the McCainiacs.
posted by Mister_A at 9:48 AM on August 6, 2008
posted by Mister_A at 9:48 AM on August 6, 2008
I am chuckling at your denial, though. You remind me of me in 2004.
Ugh, 'denial'? Don't think a candidate will win, just because you want the candidate to win. The polls are far from satisfying:
"With Election Day still three months away, 48 percent said they're hearing too much about the Democratic candidate, according to a poll released Wednesday by the nonpartisan Pew Research Center. Just 26 percent said the same about his Republican rival, John McCain... At the same time, nearly four in 10 said they've been hearing too little about McCain — about four times the number who said so about Obama."
So even though the candidates are neck and neck, the probability of backlash is weighted against Obama. Complacency possibly even deters voters, who think their man already has it in the bag anyway, so why waste time? This is not in your interest.
posted by dgaicun at 9:51 AM on August 6, 2008
Ugh, 'denial'? Don't think a candidate will win, just because you want the candidate to win. The polls are far from satisfying:
"With Election Day still three months away, 48 percent said they're hearing too much about the Democratic candidate, according to a poll released Wednesday by the nonpartisan Pew Research Center. Just 26 percent said the same about his Republican rival, John McCain... At the same time, nearly four in 10 said they've been hearing too little about McCain — about four times the number who said so about Obama."
So even though the candidates are neck and neck, the probability of backlash is weighted against Obama. Complacency possibly even deters voters, who think their man already has it in the bag anyway, so why waste time? This is not in your interest.
posted by dgaicun at 9:51 AM on August 6, 2008
And, having watched that clip (from afu), I once again think it is possible that Obama will slaughter McCain in November. Jeez, he's good.
posted by Mister_A at 9:53 AM on August 6, 2008
posted by Mister_A at 9:53 AM on August 6, 2008
Isn't it amazing (horrifying? depressing?) that even on a place like Metafilter, a post about Paris Hilton is guaranteed to generate a couple hundred comments? I could post a single link on the front page with the words Paris Hilton and link it to a picture of living room wallpaper and it would still get 200 comments.
posted by spicynuts at 9:56 AM on August 6, 2008
posted by spicynuts at 9:56 AM on August 6, 2008
afu, I agree about the tire gauge thing–it's a common sense thing that your friggin' mechanic knows and may well have mentioned to you; it's an easy way to get better gas mileage, and so of course it is worth lampooning?
Not just common sense - it's SCIENCE!
posted by never used baby shoes at 10:00 AM on August 6, 2008
Not just common sense - it's SCIENCE!
posted by never used baby shoes at 10:00 AM on August 6, 2008
Wow. Mediocrity is really running this country into the ground, ain't it. Pleah.
posted by daq at 10:01 AM on August 6, 2008
posted by daq at 10:01 AM on August 6, 2008
Meh, I didn't think it was that funny. For one thing, her energy proposal sucks. She claims offshore drilling would help us cover the gap while alternative energy comes online, but in fact those drills won't produce any oil for 10 years. It's just a give-away to the oil companies just like all of the republican ideas. But, the republicans have successfully hoodwinked the population again. Also, Obama has said he would compromise on drilling, so all three of their positions is actually the same (except she didn't say anything about CO2 cap and trade, which is a big difference between McCain and Obama)
I thought the rest of the video was kind of cliched and had bad timing.
posted by delmoi at 10:03 AM on August 6, 2008 [1 favorite]
I thought the rest of the video was kind of cliched and had bad timing.
posted by delmoi at 10:03 AM on August 6, 2008 [1 favorite]
That will teach McCain to mess with someone that can afford to hire better marketing people than his.
posted by zzazazz at 10:04 AM on August 6, 2008
posted by zzazazz at 10:04 AM on August 6, 2008
But does the wallpaper have a well-defined energy policy?
posted by wabbittwax at 10:09 AM on August 6, 2008
posted by wabbittwax at 10:09 AM on August 6, 2008
God damn it. I feel like the sky is falling, I can't be sure if water is still wet or fire is hot because all of my internal instruments for judging reality are completely out of whack and are going to totally need to be recalibrated.
Because I just saw something with Paris Hilton that made me kind of like her.
And that shit is just fucked right the hell up.
A co-worker just came by to find out what I was laughing about and I replayed the video and then we were both laughing and when we calmed down we went outside to make sure the sky hadn't fallen down, because feeling a bit of respect for Paris Hilton is about the last thing either of us ever expected to feel.
posted by rtha at 10:13 AM on August 6, 2008
Because I just saw something with Paris Hilton that made me kind of like her.
And that shit is just fucked right the hell up.
A co-worker just came by to find out what I was laughing about and I replayed the video and then we were both laughing and when we calmed down we went outside to make sure the sky hadn't fallen down, because feeling a bit of respect for Paris Hilton is about the last thing either of us ever expected to feel.
posted by rtha at 10:13 AM on August 6, 2008
The debate about various polls and how McCain & Obama are doing drives me insane with unchecked anger. If you find yourself wondering which polling site or data is the best source, perhaps you might consider that all of them are worthless.
Polls are ruining the electoral system and they're hurting America. I wish they would stop.
... and tangentially, it really bugs me that I can't say that something or someone is hot anymore without feeling like I'm referencing Paris Hilton.
posted by wabbittwax at 10:16 AM on August 6, 2008
Polls are ruining the electoral system and they're hurting America. I wish they would stop.
... and tangentially, it really bugs me that I can't say that something or someone is hot anymore without feeling like I'm referencing Paris Hilton.
posted by wabbittwax at 10:16 AM on August 6, 2008
It's really rather funny. I've been living abroad for 10 years. Paris Hilton is not very known to me. I did catch her show briefly, once, and while it wasn't my cup o tea, I was totally blown away by the perfection of her silliness. I didn't even know who she was, at that point. Funny enough, when I started noticing folks here commenting about her, I rather quickly realized it just had to be the same chick with the little dog that wore booties (LOL!)
Paris Hilton is no vapid female, but she plays one on TV, and plays it very very good. That should be obvious if you just consider the perfection of her role. An idiot would mess it up. And please note, I totally lack the attraction bias, being rather fond of males.
posted by Goofyy at 10:18 AM on August 6, 2008
Paris Hilton is no vapid female, but she plays one on TV, and plays it very very good. That should be obvious if you just consider the perfection of her role. An idiot would mess it up. And please note, I totally lack the attraction bias, being rather fond of males.
posted by Goofyy at 10:18 AM on August 6, 2008
Anyone who thinks the election is in the bag is a fool.
Not only is it going to be close, McCain has a real chance.
People who think it is in the bag really don't understand their fellow Americans at all.
Regardless of how much everyone wants it not to be the case, race is a real issue in this race everywhere except potentially California and New York.
Voters will turn out by the hundreds of thousands (dare i say millions?) to vote AGAINST a black man.
Will voters turn out in similar numbers to vote FOR a black man? Unknown, but doubtful.
I have basically established that anyone who votes Republican this next election is too stupid to be my friend. If someone looks at the last 8 years and decides, yep, 4 more years of THAT, then honestly, without being funny or exaggerating, then that person is too stupid to be associated with.
I'm also going to assume anyone who isn't a total moron (see above) who votes Republican this year is also racist.
posted by Ynoxas at 10:18 AM on August 6, 2008
Not only is it going to be close, McCain has a real chance.
People who think it is in the bag really don't understand their fellow Americans at all.
Regardless of how much everyone wants it not to be the case, race is a real issue in this race everywhere except potentially California and New York.
Voters will turn out by the hundreds of thousands (dare i say millions?) to vote AGAINST a black man.
Will voters turn out in similar numbers to vote FOR a black man? Unknown, but doubtful.
I have basically established that anyone who votes Republican this next election is too stupid to be my friend. If someone looks at the last 8 years and decides, yep, 4 more years of THAT, then honestly, without being funny or exaggerating, then that person is too stupid to be associated with.
I'm also going to assume anyone who isn't a total moron (see above) who votes Republican this year is also racist.
posted by Ynoxas at 10:18 AM on August 6, 2008
Will voters turn out in similar numbers to vote FOR a black man? Unknown, but doubtful.
Ah, the old "black voters don't count." Argument. Wonderful.
While African Americans usually vote 90% democratic, this year it's expected that AA turnout will be massive, and some people think it could tip some southern states (NC is one people are talking about)
posted by delmoi at 10:29 AM on August 6, 2008
Ah, the old "black voters don't count." Argument. Wonderful.
While African Americans usually vote 90% democratic, this year it's expected that AA turnout will be massive, and some people think it could tip some southern states (NC is one people are talking about)
posted by delmoi at 10:29 AM on August 6, 2008
Yeah, Paris, but what about universal health care?
There are, like, blonde whores out there who can't afford THEIR Valtrex.
Like, do you support free health care for, like, STD treatments, and like, free condoms for high schoolers and, um, like, rolling papers in every grocery store and stuff?
Also, like, um, what? Did you get your wonky eye fixed? Ooo, nice.
Those size 11 pumps are hot. FIERCE, even. I hope they're cruelty-free, cause like, leather and fur is so Beyonce summer of 2006.
Vote, bitches!
all kidding aside... I would totally talk to her at a party and probably be nice, because she has got to get mountains of shit from everybody, everywhere, so, sorry P. Mo Money, Mo Problems.
posted by Unicorn on the cob at 10:38 AM on August 6, 2008
There are, like, blonde whores out there who can't afford THEIR Valtrex.
Like, do you support free health care for, like, STD treatments, and like, free condoms for high schoolers and, um, like, rolling papers in every grocery store and stuff?
Also, like, um, what? Did you get your wonky eye fixed? Ooo, nice.
Those size 11 pumps are hot. FIERCE, even. I hope they're cruelty-free, cause like, leather and fur is so Beyonce summer of 2006.
Vote, bitches!
all kidding aside... I would totally talk to her at a party and probably be nice, because she has got to get mountains of shit from everybody, everywhere, so, sorry P. Mo Money, Mo Problems.
posted by Unicorn on the cob at 10:38 AM on August 6, 2008
Here's hoping, delmoi!
I think VA is in play too–if it is even still considered a "red state" at all...
posted by Mister_A at 10:38 AM on August 6, 2008
I think VA is in play too–if it is even still considered a "red state" at all...
posted by Mister_A at 10:38 AM on August 6, 2008
Some supposed flaws in 538's methodology.
Having read that, it doesn't appear to me to be pointing out flaws in the methodology. It starts with the point that 538 is trying to predict the outcome which is inherently less precise than giving a current snapshot. That isn't a flaw, it's a difference in goal. The second point is that running all those simulations is completely unnecessary as you can simply plot a curve and come up with virtually the same results. This is true but does not point out flaw in poblano's (Nate's) predictions, only that you could reach the same predictions without bothering to run the simulations.
If those are the biggest "flaws" he can find, I think poblano is doing okay.
And as he points out, poblano likes simulations because he's a baseball guy. I'd be fine with just using a bell curve but that would probably be like nails on a chalkboard to poblano.
My own objection to the methodology is that the state elections aren't uncorrelated events. If poblano gives Obama a 58% of winning Colorado and a 74% of winning New Mexico I don't believe you can just run simulations where Obama wins Colorado 58% of the time and Obama wins New Mexico 74% of the time. If Obama wins Colorado, he will win New Mexico more than 74% of the time. Conversely, if he loses Colorado, he will win New Mexico less than 74% of the time. They aren't disconnected and I don't think they can be treated as independent events.
I believe his regression is supposed to account for that but I still don't think you can treat the election simulation the way he treats it.
It's still the only election site I bookmark. I used to follow a lot; I deleted all of them once I started reading 538. The rest are completely extraneous now.
posted by Justinian at 10:40 AM on August 6, 2008
Having read that, it doesn't appear to me to be pointing out flaws in the methodology. It starts with the point that 538 is trying to predict the outcome which is inherently less precise than giving a current snapshot. That isn't a flaw, it's a difference in goal. The second point is that running all those simulations is completely unnecessary as you can simply plot a curve and come up with virtually the same results. This is true but does not point out flaw in poblano's (Nate's) predictions, only that you could reach the same predictions without bothering to run the simulations.
If those are the biggest "flaws" he can find, I think poblano is doing okay.
And as he points out, poblano likes simulations because he's a baseball guy. I'd be fine with just using a bell curve but that would probably be like nails on a chalkboard to poblano.
My own objection to the methodology is that the state elections aren't uncorrelated events. If poblano gives Obama a 58% of winning Colorado and a 74% of winning New Mexico I don't believe you can just run simulations where Obama wins Colorado 58% of the time and Obama wins New Mexico 74% of the time. If Obama wins Colorado, he will win New Mexico more than 74% of the time. Conversely, if he loses Colorado, he will win New Mexico less than 74% of the time. They aren't disconnected and I don't think they can be treated as independent events.
I believe his regression is supposed to account for that but I still don't think you can treat the election simulation the way he treats it.
It's still the only election site I bookmark. I used to follow a lot; I deleted all of them once I started reading 538. The rest are completely extraneous now.
posted by Justinian at 10:40 AM on August 6, 2008
I just don't read any of them. They're all extraneous. Polls are only useful to the candidate so they can let the winds blow their opinions to the lowest common denominator. Go democracy.
posted by smackfu at 10:46 AM on August 6, 2008
posted by smackfu at 10:46 AM on August 6, 2008
Isn't it amazing (horrifying? depressing?) that even on a place like Metafilter, a post about Paris Hilton is guaranteed to generate a couple hundred comments? I could post a single link on the front page with the words Paris Hilton and link it to a picture of living room wallpaper and it would still get 200 comments.
spicynuts, this seems an unfair characterization of this thread, especially coming from you, one of its most active participants. A quick read of the thread indicates that many of the comments (at least 1/3, probably more) are not really about Miss Hilton at all.
posted by Mister_A at 10:47 AM on August 6, 2008
spicynuts, this seems an unfair characterization of this thread, especially coming from you, one of its most active participants. A quick read of the thread indicates that many of the comments (at least 1/3, probably more) are not really about Miss Hilton at all.
posted by Mister_A at 10:47 AM on August 6, 2008
I think VA is in play too–if it is even still considered a "red state" at all...
Virginia's absolutely in play. It's probably the closest thing to a toss-up we've got at this point in the race. (Not the state most likely to flip--Iowa's practically in the bag for Obama.) North Carolina's looking iffier, but I think we have a decent shot here. The demographics have been trending bluer over the past decade, and black turnout's going to be huge.
posted by EarBucket at 10:47 AM on August 6, 2008
Virginia's absolutely in play. It's probably the closest thing to a toss-up we've got at this point in the race. (Not the state most likely to flip--Iowa's practically in the bag for Obama.) North Carolina's looking iffier, but I think we have a decent shot here. The demographics have been trending bluer over the past decade, and black turnout's going to be huge.
posted by EarBucket at 10:47 AM on August 6, 2008
Isn't the fact the Funny or Die is running this mean that Will Farrell and Adam McKay are behind this? Next up, Pearl the Landlady interviews Cindy McCain.
posted by Ber at 10:58 AM on August 6, 2008
posted by Ber at 10:58 AM on August 6, 2008
If you find yourself wondering which polling site or data is the best source, perhaps you might consider that all of them are worthless.
Only if by "worthless" you mean "generally accurate snapshots of how the population of interest would answer the same questions at that point."
posted by ROU_Xenophobe at 10:59 AM on August 6, 2008
Only if by "worthless" you mean "generally accurate snapshots of how the population of interest would answer the same questions at that point."
posted by ROU_Xenophobe at 10:59 AM on August 6, 2008
spicynuts, this seems an unfair characterization of this thread, especially coming from you,
This was not a dig..it was a whimsical observation with tongue in cheek. I actually am happy the direction the discussion has taken..it's interesting. I was not chastising anyone.
posted by spicynuts at 11:02 AM on August 6, 2008
This was not a dig..it was a whimsical observation with tongue in cheek. I actually am happy the direction the discussion has taken..it's interesting. I was not chastising anyone.
posted by spicynuts at 11:02 AM on August 6, 2008
Awh Paris...bless your evil little purse-dog carrying, big rock wearing, bimbo playing persona...for today, for a brief shining moment, I was actually amused by you.
posted by dejah420 at 11:04 AM on August 6, 2008
posted by dejah420 at 11:04 AM on August 6, 2008
Now, I know there are some polls out there saying this man has a 32% approval rating. But guys like us, we don't pay attention to the polls. We know that polls are just a collection of statistics that reflect what people are thinking in "reality." And reality has a well-known liberal bias.
posted by EarBucket at 11:08 AM on August 6, 2008
posted by EarBucket at 11:08 AM on August 6, 2008
HA! I made you use the smiley! I think that's almost a ban hammer.
posted by spicynuts at 11:37 AM on August 6, 2008
posted by spicynuts at 11:37 AM on August 6, 2008
McCain only started going after Paris and Britney because he screwed up with that whole outdated 'Dr. No' reference after Obama made a 'Dr. Phil' reference--a mistake that made him look pretty much as old as Montgomery Burns.
posted by troybob at 11:47 AM on August 6, 2008
posted by troybob at 11:47 AM on August 6, 2008
> She's adorable.
Ah, quiet all you, she's still despicable.
posted by Peter H at 11:47 AM on August 6, 2008
Ah, quiet all you, she's still despicable.
posted by Peter H at 11:47 AM on August 6, 2008
Ah, the old "black voters don't count." Argument. Wonderful.
What?
That's not what I'm saying at all. Maybe others you have encountered have said that, but that's hardly my point, even stretching it.
What I mean is that there are lots (and lots, and lots) of racist crackers out there who will purposefully go vote, even if they are not regular voters, maybe not even voted before, who will vote for the sole purpose of voting against a black man.
You're the one saying blacks already vote 90% democratic. How much more can they do?
Blacks are only 12% of the population.
It's not that they "don't count"; it is that I'm afraid they are outnumbered by racist crackers. I know that more than 12% of Tennessee is a bunch of racist rednecks, by far. And I've already heard lots of people say "I don't think I can vote for a black man for President".
Yes, people say that, out loud, in public. Usually to head-nods of approval from those surrounding them. I know one guy who has voted Democrat in every national election since Truman and he has said he will likely stay home and not vote.
Basically, if McCain gets the Latino vote, and keeps the christian fundamentalists and the "I'm afraid of terrorists" soccer moms, then there's a real chance he will win.
This is not going to be a landslide for Obama. People who think it is are living in a fantasy world.
posted by Ynoxas at 11:49 AM on August 6, 2008
What?
That's not what I'm saying at all. Maybe others you have encountered have said that, but that's hardly my point, even stretching it.
What I mean is that there are lots (and lots, and lots) of racist crackers out there who will purposefully go vote, even if they are not regular voters, maybe not even voted before, who will vote for the sole purpose of voting against a black man.
You're the one saying blacks already vote 90% democratic. How much more can they do?
Blacks are only 12% of the population.
It's not that they "don't count"; it is that I'm afraid they are outnumbered by racist crackers. I know that more than 12% of Tennessee is a bunch of racist rednecks, by far. And I've already heard lots of people say "I don't think I can vote for a black man for President".
Yes, people say that, out loud, in public. Usually to head-nods of approval from those surrounding them. I know one guy who has voted Democrat in every national election since Truman and he has said he will likely stay home and not vote.
Basically, if McCain gets the Latino vote, and keeps the christian fundamentalists and the "I'm afraid of terrorists" soccer moms, then there's a real chance he will win.
This is not going to be a landslide for Obama. People who think it is are living in a fantasy world.
posted by Ynoxas at 11:49 AM on August 6, 2008
We'll always have Paris.
posted by seanmpuckett at 11:55 AM on August 6, 2008 [4 favorites]
posted by seanmpuckett at 11:55 AM on August 6, 2008 [4 favorites]
I have always loved Paris Hilton, if only for the fact that 10,000 years from now she will stand alone as the most honest and accurate representation of our age.
posted by troybob at 11:57 AM on August 6, 2008 [3 favorites]
posted by troybob at 11:57 AM on August 6, 2008 [3 favorites]
Ynoxas is right. Quit fooling yourselves. McCain could win. In fact I will go out on a limb and predict that he will win. I hope I'm wrong. But I don't think I am (so far I've been 6 and 1 calling elections, which is not a bad track record).
I think McCain will take it for four reasons.
#1 30%+ of America still thinks George Bush is a genius and can do no wrong and McCain will tell all the same AMURICAH! shit they love to hear.
#2 Most liberals are looking for a savior and have lost the entire notion of what politics IS in this country. When liberals say they will "hold their nose" and vote for Obama, or worse, they won't vote for him becuase of FISA, or Hillary, or what ever the fuck, that tells me there IS not enough politically scrupulous lefties in this country anymore. God. It's embarrassing.
#3 People hate admitting mistakes. And voting Obama in is clear admission that we all made a terrible mistake with the Iraq War (as if reality wasn't enough) and with Bush's policies in general. Not that Obama will rescue us or correct these wrongs. But symbolically electing a black liberal says it all.
#4 America is filled with stupid racist mother-fuckers (See number 1).
As for the polls? McCain has run THE worst campaign of our time and Obama has run quite possibly the best since Kennedy. No matter what machinations effect the polls they just should not be this close.
I would love to be wrong.
posted by tkchrist at 12:22 PM on August 6, 2008 [7 favorites]
I think McCain will take it for four reasons.
#1 30%+ of America still thinks George Bush is a genius and can do no wrong and McCain will tell all the same AMURICAH! shit they love to hear.
#2 Most liberals are looking for a savior and have lost the entire notion of what politics IS in this country. When liberals say they will "hold their nose" and vote for Obama, or worse, they won't vote for him becuase of FISA, or Hillary, or what ever the fuck, that tells me there IS not enough politically scrupulous lefties in this country anymore. God. It's embarrassing.
#3 People hate admitting mistakes. And voting Obama in is clear admission that we all made a terrible mistake with the Iraq War (as if reality wasn't enough) and with Bush's policies in general. Not that Obama will rescue us or correct these wrongs. But symbolically electing a black liberal says it all.
#4 America is filled with stupid racist mother-fuckers (See number 1).
As for the polls? McCain has run THE worst campaign of our time and Obama has run quite possibly the best since Kennedy. No matter what machinations effect the polls they just should not be this close.
I would love to be wrong.
posted by tkchrist at 12:22 PM on August 6, 2008 [7 favorites]
Polls are only useful to the candidate so they can let the winds blow their opinions to the lowest common denominator. Go democracy.
Politics matters. This sort of cynical a-politicism is a tool of those in power to keep themselves in power at the expense of the powerless. Go you.
posted by Justinian at 12:26 PM on August 6, 2008
Politics matters. This sort of cynical a-politicism is a tool of those in power to keep themselves in power at the expense of the powerless. Go you.
posted by Justinian at 12:26 PM on August 6, 2008
Good points tkchrist, and I agree that this will probably be a close election–but you just can't read too much into polling at this point. The candidates are still unknown quantities to many voters at this point in the race.
posted by Mister_A at 12:28 PM on August 6, 2008
posted by Mister_A at 12:28 PM on August 6, 2008
tkchrist: McCain has run THE worst campaign of our time and Obama has run quite possibly the best since Kennedy
Interesting comparison. You've seen the campaign material and commercials that aired during the 1960 campaign for Nixon, haven't you? You think McCain has problems with the camera? Oof.
posted by thanotopsis at 12:41 PM on August 6, 2008
Interesting comparison. You've seen the campaign material and commercials that aired during the 1960 campaign for Nixon, haven't you? You think McCain has problems with the camera? Oof.
posted by thanotopsis at 12:41 PM on August 6, 2008
"...white hair wrinkle old guy"
Actuarial analysis says McCain won't be "healthy" by end of second term as president.
posted by ericb at 12:45 PM on August 6, 2008
Actuarial analysis says McCain won't be "healthy" by end of second term as president.
posted by ericb at 12:45 PM on August 6, 2008
Paris's enthusiastic praddling is sure trigger an election.
posted by CynicalKnight at 12:46 PM on August 6, 2008
posted by CynicalKnight at 12:46 PM on August 6, 2008
[insert] 'to'
posted by CynicalKnight at 12:46 PM on August 6, 2008
posted by CynicalKnight at 12:46 PM on August 6, 2008
She's my favorite pointless celebrity. Anybody who does self-referential vapididty and has such a thick skin is hot, in my book. She goes on Letterman and takes it like a champ. She plays type jussssst right. Cool as a cucumber. She's a natrual comedienne, I might even say.
But omg did you see the uneven texture on her cheeks? She is so aging.
posted by Ambrosia Voyeur at 12:53 PM on August 6, 2008
But omg did you see the uneven texture on her cheeks? She is so aging.
posted by Ambrosia Voyeur at 12:53 PM on August 6, 2008
McCain has run THE worst campaign of our time and Obama has run quite possibly the best since Kennedy
Since I'd rather eat a bowl full of boogers and earwax than watch MTV these days, can someone tell me if that channel and its ilk are engaging with Obama they way they did with Clinton in 92?
posted by spicynuts at 12:54 PM on August 6, 2008 [1 favorite]
Since I'd rather eat a bowl full of boogers and earwax than watch MTV these days, can someone tell me if that channel and its ilk are engaging with Obama they way they did with Clinton in 92?
posted by spicynuts at 12:54 PM on August 6, 2008 [1 favorite]
Not only is it going to be close, McCain has a real chance.
Like tkchrist said, not only does he have a chance, McCain is going to win.
It's going to be a combination of (successful) negative campagning by the geezer, some last minute scandal (made up, if necessary), a considerable percentage not voting for the black guy out of principle, rigged voting machines in Ohio and elsewhere, and most of the media outlets not picking up on any of the frequent goofs of McCain but blowing any small misstep by Obama out of proportion. Curiously enough, the actual proposed policies of the candidates will affect less than 5% of all voters.
The rigged voting machines will be uncovered weeks after the election, but hey, what can you do, America hates itself a sore loser and look! there's Paris Hilton on TV over there, wasn't she running in the election as well?
posted by sour cream at 12:56 PM on August 6, 2008 [1 favorite]
Like tkchrist said, not only does he have a chance, McCain is going to win.
It's going to be a combination of (successful) negative campagning by the geezer, some last minute scandal (made up, if necessary), a considerable percentage not voting for the black guy out of principle, rigged voting machines in Ohio and elsewhere, and most of the media outlets not picking up on any of the frequent goofs of McCain but blowing any small misstep by Obama out of proportion. Curiously enough, the actual proposed policies of the candidates will affect less than 5% of all voters.
The rigged voting machines will be uncovered weeks after the election, but hey, what can you do, America hates itself a sore loser and look! there's Paris Hilton on TV over there, wasn't she running in the election as well?
posted by sour cream at 12:56 PM on August 6, 2008 [1 favorite]
The decision by the McCain people to try and make a positive out of this video shows just how desperate and out of touch they really are.
posted by notreally at 12:58 PM on August 6, 2008
I would love to be wrong.
I hope you're wrong, as well. Along with sour cream I'm not convinced that Obama has this election "in the bag." Heck -- I'm a lifelong Red Sox fan. Even now I still expect the worst to happen every season.
posted by ericb at 1:04 PM on August 6, 2008
I hope you're wrong, as well. Along with sour cream I'm not convinced that Obama has this election "in the bag." Heck -- I'm a lifelong Red Sox fan. Even now I still expect the worst to happen every season.
posted by ericb at 1:04 PM on August 6, 2008
You're the one saying blacks already vote 90% democratic. How much more can they do?
They can turn out. In 2004, it wasn't the case that 90% of blacks voted for Kerry. About 55% did. And about 6% voted for Bush... and 40% didn't vote, or didn't register (or couldn't).
While black citizens are more likely to be barred from voting for prior convictions, there are still a very deep well of black votes out there waiting to be tapped.
Higher black turnout alone could make the difference in Ohio or Florida.
posted by ROU_Xenophobe at 1:12 PM on August 6, 2008
They can turn out. In 2004, it wasn't the case that 90% of blacks voted for Kerry. About 55% did. And about 6% voted for Bush... and 40% didn't vote, or didn't register (or couldn't).
While black citizens are more likely to be barred from voting for prior convictions, there are still a very deep well of black votes out there waiting to be tapped.
Higher black turnout alone could make the difference in Ohio or Florida.
posted by ROU_Xenophobe at 1:12 PM on August 6, 2008
Remember, if you say Mccain will win now, you get to gloat in November if it happens! Hedge your bets now.
posted by smackfu at 1:21 PM on August 6, 2008
posted by smackfu at 1:21 PM on August 6, 2008
What is with all the "praddling"?
spicynuts, I'm waiting for that FPP.
posted by Bovine Love at 1:36 PM on August 6, 2008
spicynuts, I'm waiting for that FPP.
posted by Bovine Love at 1:36 PM on August 6, 2008
which one??? the one with the wallpaper? i'm not into egregious use of the front page.
posted by spicynuts at 1:43 PM on August 6, 2008
posted by spicynuts at 1:43 PM on August 6, 2008
smackfu: I promise you, if McCain wins, gloating will be the absolute last thing I'm interested in.
It's a cautionary warning to everyone to not take this election as a given.
The MetaFilter community would harbor a greater-than-normal distribution of political activists, I'm guessing, and a much greater-than-normal distribution of liberals.
"We" don't need to take this election lying down, and just assume Obama is a shoo-in (shoe-in?) because "republicans sux".
If feel strongly about this. As I said, I am willing to make my social choices based on this election, as at this point it becomes a character issue. If someone can't have enough moral fiber to at least try to get this country on a new path, then I can't bother to have any respect for them.
I'm not in love with Obama. But at this rate, I'm willing to take practically anyone over McCain.
America cannot withstand 4 more years of republican rule.
I hope beyond hope that the Senate and House both expand their majorities and that Obama wins. Then we at least have a chance of making change.
And please God/Jesus/Allah/Buddha/Vishnu/Bob/Flying Spaghetti Monster/nobody, please don't let him make a completely boneheaded choice for VP.
Don't make me say it.
posted by Ynoxas at 1:43 PM on August 6, 2008
It's a cautionary warning to everyone to not take this election as a given.
The MetaFilter community would harbor a greater-than-normal distribution of political activists, I'm guessing, and a much greater-than-normal distribution of liberals.
"We" don't need to take this election lying down, and just assume Obama is a shoo-in (shoe-in?) because "republicans sux".
If feel strongly about this. As I said, I am willing to make my social choices based on this election, as at this point it becomes a character issue. If someone can't have enough moral fiber to at least try to get this country on a new path, then I can't bother to have any respect for them.
I'm not in love with Obama. But at this rate, I'm willing to take practically anyone over McCain.
America cannot withstand 4 more years of republican rule.
I hope beyond hope that the Senate and House both expand their majorities and that Obama wins. Then we at least have a chance of making change.
And please God/Jesus/Allah/Buddha/Vishnu/Bob/Flying Spaghetti Monster/nobody, please don't let him make a completely boneheaded choice for VP.
Don't make me say it.
posted by Ynoxas at 1:43 PM on August 6, 2008
spicynuts, that is the one. Yeah, the front page is overrun already and I have to hit "read all" too often in my favorite reader, but people do tend to go on about too much Paris or the like and not enough "real" topics, and it struck me as being an interesting post idea; a statement. Now, of course, the FP is not for statements (though I, for one, encourage editorializing), but it still struck me as interesting. And a kind of self challenge.
posted by Bovine Love at 1:48 PM on August 6, 2008
posted by Bovine Love at 1:48 PM on August 6, 2008
That will teach McCain to mess with someone that can afford to hire better marketing people than his.
And I'll bet it cost Paris quite a bit less too. If it was purely an internet release, she didn't have to buy air time, right?
posted by mmrtnt at 1:55 PM on August 6, 2008
And I'll bet it cost Paris quite a bit less too. If it was purely an internet release, she didn't have to buy air time, right?
posted by mmrtnt at 1:55 PM on August 6, 2008
Jake Szymanski of FunnyorDie.com (who directed/produced the video) was just interviewed on MSNBC. He said that last week co-founder Adam McKay contacted Paris Hilton with the idea for the "ad." She agreed. They sent her a script. When they arrived in New York (where the spot was filmed) from L.A. theylearned that she had memorized the script. When filming she refused to use cue-cards, hence her ability to look straight into the camera lens when reciting her lines. He said that she was knowledgable about the campaigns, etc. After filming she made turkey sandwiches for the crew.
posted by ericb at 2:07 PM on August 6, 2008 [4 favorites]
posted by ericb at 2:07 PM on August 6, 2008 [4 favorites]
Behind the Scenes of Hilton's Mock Ad
“Paris Hilton didn't need cue cards for her presidential campaign ad.posted by ericb at 2:09 PM on August 6, 2008
The 24-year-old heiress memorized her entire monologue, which included Hilton outlining her energy plan, in an online video spoof posted on Funny or Die, the comedy Web site's content director said.
Co-founder Adam McKay came up with the concept for a mock ad starring Hilton, which has received over 3 million views since it was posted Tuesday.
‘Adam thought it would be really funny to get Paris to respond to the John McCain ad that featured her,’ Funny or Die content director Amy Rhodes told The Associated Press on Wednesday. ‘Adam contacted Paris directly, and she agreed to do it. He wrote the sketch. And she really, really loved it.’
In the online video, Hilton — clad in a leopard-print swimsuit and heels while lounging poolside — announces her candidacy for president and suggests an energy plan that combines elements of McCain's offshore oil drilling plan and Barack Obama's incentives for new energy technology. She also suggests a running mate: R&B singer Rihanna.
‘I want America to know that I'm, like, totally ready to lead,’ she says in the video.
Rhodes said the video was directed by Jake Szymanski and produced by Chris Henchy of Gary Sanchez Productions. She said the video took a few hours to shoot at the house where Hilton was staying at in the Hamptons. Rhodes also said Hilton was not compensated for appearing in the video ‘because she decided she just wanted to do it for fun.’
Jason Moore, Hilton's manager, would not comment to the AP about Hilton's appearance in the video.”
it's quite unclear and convoluted but I do give her credit for jumping at this the way she did. that video surprised me.
posted by krautland at 2:15 PM on August 6, 2008
posted by krautland at 2:15 PM on August 6, 2008
In related political news --
Sen. Hillary Clinton Not Ruling Out Having Name Put Up for Vote in Denver
Sen. Hillary Clinton Not Ruling Out Having Name Put Up for Vote in Denver
“Sen. Hillary Clinton told a gathering of supporters last week that she's looking for a ‘strategy’ for her delegates to have their voices heard and ‘respected’ at the Democratic National Convention -- and did not rule out the possibility of having her name placed into nomination at the convention alongside Sen. Barack Obama's.posted by ericb at 2:34 PM on August 6, 2008
Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton told a gathering of supporters last week that she's looking for a ‘strategy’ for her delegates to have their voices heard and ‘respected’ at the Democratic National Convention where Sen. Barack Obama is expected to be nominated as the Democratic presidential candidate.
‘I happen to believe that we will come out stronger if people feel that their voices were heard and their views were respected. I think that is a very big part of how we actually come out unified,’ Clinton, D-N.Y., said at a California fundraiser last Thursday, in a video clip captured by an attendee and posted on YouTube.
‘Because I know from just what I'm hearing, that there's incredible pent up desire. And I think that people want to feel like, 'OK, it's a catharsis, we're here, we did it, and then everybody get behind Sen. Obama.' That is what most people believe is the best way to go,’ she said.
‘No decisions have been made. And so we are trying to work all this through with the DNC and with the Obama campaign.’”
Young people may not be as stupid as they seem: Story at 11.
posted by clearly at 3:03 PM on August 6, 2008
posted by clearly at 3:03 PM on August 6, 2008
Economic Model Predicts Clear Obama Win in November
The model is 12-2. Obviously there are some different factors in this race that weren't in any of the others (well, one main one: the black candidate), but its predictions are pretty much in line with the other models out there, around 50% of the vote for Obama and about a 3-5% margin.
The one I'm working with right now, projected out to November, has Obama winning 278 to 260 with Obama losing Ohio, Indiana, Missouri, and Florida while picking up Nevada, Colorado, and New Mexico. The model is pretty pessimistic.
Either way, though, I'll be happy with the outcome. If McCain wins then this country will get what it deserves. If Obama wins then we'll have a much better chance at taking a small baby step back toward redemption. And it would be really nice if we can shift the national dialog back to the left a bit. I'm really sick of working within a framework where "socialist" is accepted as an insult, helping the poor is seen as a "nanny state," while more corporate welfare is seen as "necessary to the health of the economy," and unmitigated political cowardice in the face of terrorism is seen as "strength."
I'm still optimistic.
posted by effwerd at 3:20 PM on August 6, 2008
The model is 12-2. Obviously there are some different factors in this race that weren't in any of the others (well, one main one: the black candidate), but its predictions are pretty much in line with the other models out there, around 50% of the vote for Obama and about a 3-5% margin.
The one I'm working with right now, projected out to November, has Obama winning 278 to 260 with Obama losing Ohio, Indiana, Missouri, and Florida while picking up Nevada, Colorado, and New Mexico. The model is pretty pessimistic.
Either way, though, I'll be happy with the outcome. If McCain wins then this country will get what it deserves. If Obama wins then we'll have a much better chance at taking a small baby step back toward redemption. And it would be really nice if we can shift the national dialog back to the left a bit. I'm really sick of working within a framework where "socialist" is accepted as an insult, helping the poor is seen as a "nanny state," while more corporate welfare is seen as "necessary to the health of the economy," and unmitigated political cowardice in the face of terrorism is seen as "strength."
I'm still optimistic.
posted by effwerd at 3:20 PM on August 6, 2008
Remember, if you say Mccain will win now, you get to gloat in November if it happens! Hedge your bets now.
Yes. Because eight more years of the country being irreparably looted and dismantled by criminal Republicans is just cause for gloating.
I'm just warning you. Get your shit together, liberals. Or you will get what you deserve.
posted by tkchrist at 3:28 PM on August 6, 2008
If McCain wins then this country will get what it deserves.
I have sometimes considered something like this. I view Obama as offering continuing evil and destruction on a smaller and slower scale than the continuing evil and destruction offered by McCain, and thus the more preferable of the two allowed candidates and getting my vote, but sometimes I wonder if things would work out better (either for Americans or for the world as a whole) if McCain gets in and we get the downfall of America over with quicker.
posted by TheOnlyCoolTim at 4:17 PM on August 6, 2008 [1 favorite]
I have sometimes considered something like this. I view Obama as offering continuing evil and destruction on a smaller and slower scale than the continuing evil and destruction offered by McCain, and thus the more preferable of the two allowed candidates and getting my vote, but sometimes I wonder if things would work out better (either for Americans or for the world as a whole) if McCain gets in and we get the downfall of America over with quicker.
posted by TheOnlyCoolTim at 4:17 PM on August 6, 2008 [1 favorite]
And please God/Jesus/Allah/Buddha/Vishnu/Bob/Flying Spaghetti Monster/nobody...
I always add in "random forces of the universe".
posted by Mental Wimp at 4:42 PM on August 6, 2008
I always add in "random forces of the universe".
posted by Mental Wimp at 4:42 PM on August 6, 2008
That's not what I'm saying at all. Maybe others you have encountered have said that, but that's hardly my point, even stretching it.
What you said was "Will voters turn out in similar numbers to vote FOR a black man? Unknown, but doubtful."
The point is, the only way that makes sense is if you totally discount black voters. Secondly, while when they turn out in the polls, African Americans mostly vote Democratic, but the turnout numbers matter quite a bit.
It's not that they "don't count"; it is that I'm afraid they are outnumbered by racist crackers. I know that more than 12% of Tennessee is a bunch of racist rednecks, by far.
But see, you're comparing the state population of racists to the national population of blacks. it dosn't matter if more then 12% of Tennesseans are racists, what matters is whether or not more then 17% are racists, since tennassee is 17% Black. Georgia is 29.9% African American, North Carolina is 21% black and so on, which is why Obama did so well in the primaries.
But obviously no one is counting on any of those states going blue in 2008, although as I said North Carolina is a state that some people think Obama has a chance in.
Anyway, the rest of your analysis is based on people around you, in Tennessee, but Tennassee isn't like the rest of the U.S.
This is not going to be a landslide for Obama. People who think it is are living in a fantasy world.
Maybe not a 'landslide' but certainly a pretty decent victory, but really that 'fantasy world' where society isn't teaming with more then 12% 'racist rednecks' actually exists and it's called "most of the United States"
posted by delmoi at 5:27 PM on August 6, 2008
What you said was "Will voters turn out in similar numbers to vote FOR a black man? Unknown, but doubtful."
The point is, the only way that makes sense is if you totally discount black voters. Secondly, while when they turn out in the polls, African Americans mostly vote Democratic, but the turnout numbers matter quite a bit.
It's not that they "don't count"; it is that I'm afraid they are outnumbered by racist crackers. I know that more than 12% of Tennessee is a bunch of racist rednecks, by far.
But see, you're comparing the state population of racists to the national population of blacks. it dosn't matter if more then 12% of Tennesseans are racists, what matters is whether or not more then 17% are racists, since tennassee is 17% Black. Georgia is 29.9% African American, North Carolina is 21% black and so on, which is why Obama did so well in the primaries.
But obviously no one is counting on any of those states going blue in 2008, although as I said North Carolina is a state that some people think Obama has a chance in.
Anyway, the rest of your analysis is based on people around you, in Tennessee, but Tennassee isn't like the rest of the U.S.
I know that more than 12% of Tennessee is a bunch of racist rednecks, by far. And I've already heard lots of people say "I don't think I can vote for a black man for President".Well, maybe the rest of the country dosn't have that problem. All you have to do is look at an electoral map, Obama will probably win and he'll mostly do it with non-southern states.
This is not going to be a landslide for Obama. People who think it is are living in a fantasy world.
Maybe not a 'landslide' but certainly a pretty decent victory, but really that 'fantasy world' where society isn't teaming with more then 12% 'racist rednecks' actually exists and it's called "most of the United States"
posted by delmoi at 5:27 PM on August 6, 2008
if McCain gets the Latino vote
Hispanic Voters Solidly Behind Obama, by 30%.
Poll: Obama is winning Latino vote
Obama shoring up vital Hispanic voting bloc
And that's before the Democrats spend $20 million on outreach to Latino voters.
And voting Obama in is clear admission that we all made a terrible mistake with the Iraq War
Opposition to Iraq War Reaches New High, with "63% of Americans saying the United States made a mistake in sending troops to Iraq."
I wonder if things would work out better (either for Americans or for the world as a whole) if McCain gets in and we get the downfall of America over with quicker
Some people said the same thing about 2004 and I am not satisfied with the results of the experiment.
posted by kirkaracha at 5:27 PM on August 6, 2008
Oh. Jeez. I forgot the 5th and most obvious reason we could easily see a McCain win:
Gay marriage.
posted by tkchrist at 5:33 PM on August 6, 2008
Gay marriage.
posted by tkchrist at 5:33 PM on August 6, 2008
"I wonder if things would work out better (either for Americans or for the world as a whole) if McCain gets in and we get the downfall of America over with quicker"
Um. No thank you. The Bond Supervillain "I've got to blow up the moon to save the world" Solution doesn't seem to work out all that well.
When the US collapses life is going to suck HARD for 75% of our population for quite some time afterward.
posted by tkchrist at 5:40 PM on August 6, 2008
Um. No thank you. The Bond Supervillain "I've got to blow up the moon to save the world" Solution doesn't seem to work out all that well.
When the US collapses life is going to suck HARD for 75% of our population for quite some time afterward.
posted by tkchrist at 5:40 PM on August 6, 2008
I'd vote for her, depending on who else was running. I mean, how else can we beat France?
posted by jeffburdges at 6:02 PM on August 6, 2008
posted by jeffburdges at 6:02 PM on August 6, 2008
sometimes I wonder if things would work out better (either for Americans or for the world as a whole) if McCain gets in and we get the downfall of America over with quicker.
Perhaps you should pause to think about the consequences of giving McCain the big red button. Even if you're not a fan of American, I assume you're not a fan of nuclear war.
posted by Solon and Thanks at 6:18 PM on August 6, 2008
Perhaps you should pause to think about the consequences of giving McCain the big red button. Even if you're not a fan of American, I assume you're not a fan of nuclear war.
posted by Solon and Thanks at 6:18 PM on August 6, 2008
I don't see how anyone can claim to foresee this election. But I'd like to believe that (a) racism isn't that inspiring a reason for racist solidly red states to vote, while (b) African Americans will be very inspired.
posted by jeffburdges at 6:18 PM on August 6, 2008
posted by jeffburdges at 6:18 PM on August 6, 2008
Hispanics in Florida are pissed that McCain isn't trying harder to get their votes.
posted by oddman at 6:31 PM on August 6, 2008
posted by oddman at 6:31 PM on August 6, 2008
Re: the "Paris is secretly smart" posts...I would agree, but I saw her do two interviews after she got of of the clink. One was on Letterman, who berated her to talk about jail to the point that she nearly broke down in tears. I actually felt pissed at Letterman for being such a dick, but Paris was completely unable to steer the conversation in any direction. But the next was on Larry King, where she talked about being railroaded because of her celebrity status, but couldn't elaborate on why. King was visibly baffled about why she was even on his show, she had so little to say about anything.
Intelligence has many level and manifestations. Paris may be smart about some things, but I don't see it, this video notwithstanding.
posted by zardoz at 6:36 PM on August 6, 2008
Intelligence has many level and manifestations. Paris may be smart about some things, but I don't see it, this video notwithstanding.
posted by zardoz at 6:36 PM on August 6, 2008
Straight Talk Express acquires bumper sticker, hits minivan.
posted by EarBucket at 6:38 PM on August 6, 2008
posted by EarBucket at 6:38 PM on August 6, 2008
But I live in NYC so my perception is skewed.
Just wanting to point out that this should replace "I (heart) New York" as the official slogan.
(And I used to live in New York, so I can say that.)
posted by jeanmari at 6:39 PM on August 6, 2008
Just wanting to point out that this should replace "I (heart) New York" as the official slogan.
(And I used to live in New York, so I can say that.)
posted by jeanmari at 6:39 PM on August 6, 2008
I'd rather eat a bowl full of boogers and earwax than watch MTV these days
Actually, that would qualify you to have your own show on MTV these days.
posted by troybob at 7:49 PM on August 6, 2008
Actually, that would qualify you to have your own show on MTV these days.
posted by troybob at 7:49 PM on August 6, 2008
If it weren't for Paris Hilton, third-rate columnists would never get a chance to use the word 'vapid.'
posted by troybob at 8:00 PM on August 6, 2008
posted by troybob at 8:00 PM on August 6, 2008
Whatever, bitches, I would totally paint it pink too. Let them drink cosmos.
posted by johannahdeschanel at 8:31 PM on August 6, 2008
posted by johannahdeschanel at 8:31 PM on August 6, 2008
Jake Szymanski of FunnyorDie.com (who directed/produced the video) was just interviewed on MSNBC.
MSNBC's David Shuster talks with Funnyordie.com's Jake Szymanski, the director of he Paris Hilton response to John McCain [video | 04:05].
posted by ericb at 10:17 PM on August 6, 2008
MSNBC's David Shuster talks with Funnyordie.com's Jake Szymanski, the director of he Paris Hilton response to John McCain [video | 04:05].
posted by ericb at 10:17 PM on August 6, 2008
I'm too distracted by the smirk. God, I hate that smirk.
I don't think it's actually a smirk. More that she was advised (or worked out for herself) that she looks terrible in any pose other than a three-quarter face with her mouth closed & her head tilted to one side. Always camera-conscious, she retains this pose all the time when there's a camera around.
It's not uncommon. Linda Evangelista was told she had a weak chin & could correct it by keeping her mouth slightly open, and hey presto! Shots of Linda with her mouth closed are as rare as hens' teeth.
Plenty of regular people do it too - using the exact same pose & facial expression in every photo taken of them. You only need to spend about five minutes on any social networking site to notice this.
posted by UbuRoivas at 11:49 PM on August 6, 2008 [1 favorite]
I don't think it's actually a smirk. More that she was advised (or worked out for herself) that she looks terrible in any pose other than a three-quarter face with her mouth closed & her head tilted to one side. Always camera-conscious, she retains this pose all the time when there's a camera around.
It's not uncommon. Linda Evangelista was told she had a weak chin & could correct it by keeping her mouth slightly open, and hey presto! Shots of Linda with her mouth closed are as rare as hens' teeth.
Plenty of regular people do it too - using the exact same pose & facial expression in every photo taken of them. You only need to spend about five minutes on any social networking site to notice this.
posted by UbuRoivas at 11:49 PM on August 6, 2008 [1 favorite]
I have to say, whoever's responsible for making this thing, they've promoted it extremely well. It was on the news at 2am on Wednesday. The Canadian news.
posted by tehloki at 2:36 AM on August 7, 2008
posted by tehloki at 2:36 AM on August 7, 2008
Mod note: Comment and reactions removed. If you can't make your point without lazily trotting out nasty slurs, save your breath.
posted by cortex (staff) at 6:26 AM on August 7, 2008
posted by cortex (staff) at 6:26 AM on August 7, 2008
Plenty of regular people do it too - using the exact same pose & facial expression in every photo taken of them. You only need to spend about five minutes on any social networking site to notice this.
It's called head canting - you see it in paintings as far back as the 14th Century, maybe older. It's supposed to be a vulnerable (exposing the neck)/submissive/child-like pose. So you see it a lot in Christian religous paintings, and portraits of women and children, but almost never in portraits of aristocratic men. I find it fascinating that it's been around so long, and made the leap from painting, where it was imposed by the (male) painter to informal photography, where it's projected by the (female) subject.
I'd argue that there's nothing submissive about the way Paris makes the pose, though - she's flipped the balance of power, using it to place limits on her representation by the photographers that follow her about.
I may be overbeansing my plate of think here a bit, admittedly.
posted by jack_mo at 1:39 PM on August 7, 2008 [1 favorite]
It's called head canting - you see it in paintings as far back as the 14th Century, maybe older. It's supposed to be a vulnerable (exposing the neck)/submissive/child-like pose. So you see it a lot in Christian religous paintings, and portraits of women and children, but almost never in portraits of aristocratic men. I find it fascinating that it's been around so long, and made the leap from painting, where it was imposed by the (male) painter to informal photography, where it's projected by the (female) subject.
I'd argue that there's nothing submissive about the way Paris makes the pose, though - she's flipped the balance of power, using it to place limits on her representation by the photographers that follow her about.
I may be overbeansing my plate of think here a bit, admittedly.
posted by jack_mo at 1:39 PM on August 7, 2008 [1 favorite]
Oh, I didn't mean canting, specifically. I meant that plenty of people obviously go to a bit of effort to work out their best side, best expression, best angle, whatever, and stick to it almost religiously.
But you could be right about the balance of power. She never seems to play it up for the camera with fun or goofy or happy or exasperated or any other kind of look other than that stock-standard haughty kind of smirk we've been discussing.
posted by UbuRoivas at 2:44 PM on August 7, 2008
But you could be right about the balance of power. She never seems to play it up for the camera with fun or goofy or happy or exasperated or any other kind of look other than that stock-standard haughty kind of smirk we've been discussing.
posted by UbuRoivas at 2:44 PM on August 7, 2008
It's called head canting - you see it in paintings as far back as the 14th Century, maybe older. It's supposed to be a vulnerable (exposing the neck)/submissive/child-like pose.
How I learned this was that eyes in a level line perpendicular to the viewer is confrontational, the mode of address, ergo dominant. Eyes tilted, or skewed into the Z axis connote deference, inscrutability, mystery - basically the building blocks of the feminine mystique. By now, head cants, either on the x or y axes are deeply entrenched with the attractive features of femininity. Of course, in candids this isn't always possible, so a paparazzi celebrity is a difficult sample case, but in portraits and self-portraits, any time women want to be seen as feminine and attractive, there is pervasive canting.
I'm not sure if Paris is going for the cool-as-a-cucumber beatific thing with her knowing smirk, or teh sex, but I find the discussion interesting.
posted by Ambrosia Voyeur at 3:51 PM on August 7, 2008
How I learned this was that eyes in a level line perpendicular to the viewer is confrontational, the mode of address, ergo dominant. Eyes tilted, or skewed into the Z axis connote deference, inscrutability, mystery - basically the building blocks of the feminine mystique. By now, head cants, either on the x or y axes are deeply entrenched with the attractive features of femininity. Of course, in candids this isn't always possible, so a paparazzi celebrity is a difficult sample case, but in portraits and self-portraits, any time women want to be seen as feminine and attractive, there is pervasive canting.
I'm not sure if Paris is going for the cool-as-a-cucumber beatific thing with her knowing smirk, or teh sex, but I find the discussion interesting.
posted by Ambrosia Voyeur at 3:51 PM on August 7, 2008
It's called head canting...
The Paris Hilton Pose.
posted by ericb at 4:43 PM on August 7, 2008 [1 favorite]
The Paris Hilton Pose.
posted by ericb at 4:43 PM on August 7, 2008 [1 favorite]
How I learned this was that eyes in a level line perpendicular to the viewer is confrontational, the mode of address, ergo dominant.
Not necessarily. It's also an example of mirroring, which creates an unconscious connection, equality or empathy - based on a model or (unconscious) metaphor of viewing yourself directly in a mirror.
There may be no greater signifier of honesty & earnestness than looking somebody directly in the eye, face to face, as if watching oneself front-on in a mirror like that.
Canting goes against that kind of direct connection, making the canter seem more aloof or mysterious, at the same time as displaying a vulnerable neck.
posted by UbuRoivas at 5:47 PM on August 7, 2008
Not necessarily. It's also an example of mirroring, which creates an unconscious connection, equality or empathy - based on a model or (unconscious) metaphor of viewing yourself directly in a mirror.
There may be no greater signifier of honesty & earnestness than looking somebody directly in the eye, face to face, as if watching oneself front-on in a mirror like that.
Canting goes against that kind of direct connection, making the canter seem more aloof or mysterious, at the same time as displaying a vulnerable neck.
posted by UbuRoivas at 5:47 PM on August 7, 2008
God damn it. I feel like the sky is falling, I can't be sure if water is still wet or fire is hot because all of my internal instruments for judging reality are completely out of whack and are going to totally need to be recalibrated.
Because I just saw something with Paris Hilton that made me kind of like her.
And that shit is just fucked right the hell up.
Wow, it's weird how this has changed Paris haters into temporary Paris tolerators. I'm the opposite - I actually used to have affection for Paris but this spoof campaign video is just another tryhard thing she's done that makes me think "blegh, Paris."
posted by mjao at 5:03 AM on August 9, 2008
Because I just saw something with Paris Hilton that made me kind of like her.
And that shit is just fucked right the hell up.
Wow, it's weird how this has changed Paris haters into temporary Paris tolerators. I'm the opposite - I actually used to have affection for Paris but this spoof campaign video is just another tryhard thing she's done that makes me think "blegh, Paris."
posted by mjao at 5:03 AM on August 9, 2008
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posted by HuronBob at 6:43 AM on August 6, 2008 [8 favorites]