Armageddon
August 16, 2008 6:25 PM Subscribe

Newsfilter: A.R.M.A.G.E.D.D.O.N. Discussion? (McCain v Obama is so last week...)
posted by fcummins (55 comments total)

This post was deleted for the following reason: Not really interesting webstuff and more like a roundup of breaking news presented in a kooky way. -- mathowie

"I hate, hate, hate it when they put multiple links in single words."
posted by fixedgear at 6:34 PM on August 16, 2008 [7 favorites]

> Since Russia invaded Georgia and occupied the separatist enclaves of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, looters and armed gangs in uniform — many of them apparently Ossetians, Chechens and Cossacks — have operated behind the army’s path, ransacking villages largely vacated by fleeing civilians. The push to Igoeti opened a new security vacuum between Gori and here, creating fresh targets for these roaming bands.

This goes a long way to explain what type of war this is. Typical of a lot of modern wars.
posted by stbalbach at 6:36 PM on August 16, 2008

One of those links damn better well be "something interesting on the web" and not just another omg!/fear/uncertainty/doubt article, or arm-a-gonna flag you to within an inch of your life.
posted by yhbc at 6:37 PM on August 16, 2008 [1 favorite]

Weirdly I think last week we had more Russia/Georgia discussion than McCain/Obama discussion.
posted by Artw at 6:37 PM on August 16, 2008 [1 favorite]

Nope! They're not. Flagged!
posted by yhbc at 6:39 PM on August 16, 2008

Well, he put dots between them, so at least we can see they are separate links.

Here is some good background from the WaPo. The Georgians are hardly pure as the driven snow here.

I think we all remember the dramatic video of a TV station being shut down live, but let's not forget it was McCain's new BFF Mikhail Saakashvili, president of Georgia who shut down that station.
posted by delmoi at 6:39 PM on August 16, 2008

stbalbach, has that ever not been typical of war? I have a colleague, a Yankee, who's married to a southerner. When he met his mother-in-law, probably thirty years ago, she pointed to a damaged antique chair and said, "See that? Sherman did that."
posted by fantabulous timewaster at 6:42 PM on August 16, 2008 [3 favorites]

I'm still waiting for Obama to take a bold public stand against McCain's "escalate! escalate! escalate!" Russia policy. But then his record on bold public stands hasn't been good lately.
posted by nasreddin at 6:42 PM on August 16, 2008 [2 favorites]

Russia is considering arming its Baltic fleet with nuclear warheads for the first time since the cold war.

Really?
posted by sluglicker at 6:42 PM on August 16, 2008

Weirdly I think last week we had more Russia/Georgia discussion than McCain/Obama discussion.

McCain has done everything he can to throw himself in to the middle of this. His chief foreign policy adviser was a paid lobbyist for the Georgian government. Saakashvili claims that he talks with McCain several times a day and has quoted McCain's "We are all Georgians now" statement in his speeches.
posted by delmoi at 6:43 PM on August 16, 2008

That's bad, right?
posted by Dizzy at 6:43 PM on August 16, 2008

New Cold War just happens to pop up right before an election between an Old Cold Warrior With Claimed Foreign Policy Cred and The Domestic Policy guy and you think "McCain v Obama is so last week"?
posted by DU at 6:46 PM on August 16, 2008 [1 favorite]

Look, sorry if you don't like the linking style. But the shit just hit the fan, and there wasn't a FPP. I just wanted to start the discussion. Because this is the biggest world event I've seen in my 46 years.
posted by fcummins at 6:46 PM on August 16, 2008

And America is fucked.
posted by fcummins at 6:47 PM on August 16, 2008

this is the biggest world event I've seen in my 46 years.

Don't be ridiculous. 9/11? The collapse of the Soviet Union? The oil crisis?
posted by nasreddin at 6:49 PM on August 16, 2008

This is happening very fast folks. 9/11 - style, if any of you kids remember.
posted by fcummins at 6:50 PM on August 16, 2008

None of this stuff is historically unique at all. It's just bog-standard geopolitical maneuvering and readjustment following America's retreat from sole superpower status. There'll be several of these kinds of realigning moments over the next few years, and none of them will lead to any significant changes in our daily lives.
posted by nasreddin at 6:52 PM on August 16, 2008 [2 favorites]

I'm still waiting for Obama to take a bold public stand against McCain's "escalate! escalate! escalate!" Russia policy.

And now I'm imagining McCain as a Dalek. ES-CA-LAAAAATE! Pyoo! Pyoo! Kaboom!

This business with Georgia, though, has me so fucking uneasy. Feels like a trigger event for a world of badness.
posted by cmyk at 6:53 PM on August 16, 2008 [1 favorite]

This is happening very fast folks. 9/11 - style, if any of you kids remember.

What's happening? Your links aren't really that helpful for figuring it out. And you really think this is more important then 9/11?
posted by delmoi at 6:53 PM on August 16, 2008

This is happening very fast folks.

Wha-? It's been going on for weeks. US News media just started noticing it a couple of days ago is all.
posted by Artw at 6:53 PM on August 16, 2008

Nope. The last three hours on the wires have been amazing. Now the Russians are moving on Tiblisi, in the last few minutes.... All that stuff we thought you couldn't do any more, they're doing it.

I'll butt out now. Just wanted to point.
posted by fcummins at 6:53 PM on August 16, 2008

From the ever-reliable Al Jazeera.
posted by fixedgear at 6:56 PM on August 16, 2008

Wha-? It's been going on for weeks.

More like years. Both the missile shield thing and Russia-Georgia tensions have been brewing for a long time.
posted by nasreddin at 6:56 PM on August 16, 2008

Deny them your essence, fcummins.
posted by yhbc at 6:56 PM on August 16, 2008 [2 favorites]

All that stuff we thought you couldn't do any more, they're doing it.

Tell that to the Iraqis.
posted by delmoi at 7:00 PM on August 16, 2008 [2 favorites]

Hang on, what, Turkey is a big player?
posted by Artw at 7:00 PM on August 16, 2008

Complete Geo-political realignment. America is spent. Creates a vacuum. Russians move in big time. Nations choose sides, but its a multi-polar world. Turkey emerges as a big player. Iran was a distraction, but now they're a player, one among many. Tectonic. Good night.

America is far from spent. It's not nearly the power it was in the '90s, but it's still got the largest economy in the world and is tops on a whole lot of other scales (military spending, for one). Russia isn't going to do anything more than reassert its influence in the CIS and fluff its feathers in front of Western Europe for a little bit.

Resist the temptation to believe that you are living on the cusp of great changes.
posted by nasreddin at 7:00 PM on August 16, 2008

Yeah, you seem a little out of sorts, fcummins. Maybe bed is best.
posted by Mr. President Dr. Steve Elvis America at 7:00 PM on August 16, 2008

*yawn* America's fucked, politicians are stupid, I know, and it's sad that I prefaced this with a yawn.

This is part of why I generally distrust businessmen. Because a lot of this seems to be all about the money and they're playing with people's lives for it.

And Putin still has his hand up Medvedev's ass.
posted by kldickson at 7:01 PM on August 16, 2008

And Putin still has his hand up Medvedev's ass.

How could you possibly know that?
posted by delmoi at 7:03 PM on August 16, 2008

Yes. America has not got any clout at the moment. It is distrusted. It's army is all tied up and no way in hell could it take on the revitalized Russia. So Russia flexes. The Georgian thing is a lot like the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand. The ramifications are enormous. Under these circumstances, players like Iran and Turkey find they are holding good cards. Now is the time to make a move. Can you really imagine that a US strike on Iran is an option today? That changed. It was a week ago. And that changes the game from Iran's point of view too...
posted by fcummins at 7:04 PM on August 16, 2008

Literally!
posted by Artw at 7:04 PM on August 16, 2008

Is this something I'd have to listen to Alex Jones to understand?
posted by Roman Graves at 7:04 PM on August 16, 2008 [1 favorite]

How could you possibly know that?

Yeah, that's a very good point. All the amateur Kremlinology surrounding Putin and Medvedev has no basis in any serious analysis. Russian power politics is a lot less predictable than that.

Khrushchev brought Brezhnev into the Politburo, was his patron, and had his support when he took power after Stalin's death. Less than a decade later, Brezhnev showed up in Khrushchev's office and made him an offer he couldn't refuse.
posted by nasreddin at 7:09 PM on August 16, 2008

In the last 24 hours, nuclear strikes have been clearly on the table. You may think its just talk, but this is very virulent talk, of the kind that precedes major warfare. They are close to the edge here. The Russians have targeted Poland. The Ukranians have gone scurrying to NATO. NATO is a big player today. It wasn't a week ago. This is probably not so very obvious if you're in America. Check out the Israeli news: for them, Georgia is the abandoned child. The chinese are blissfully aloof, but worried. The Baltics are scared shitless. But they're in NATO. Ukraine isn't. They're in a really difficult spot.
posted by fcummins at 7:12 PM on August 16, 2008

Er, yeah, we're following it. Cheers.
posted by Artw at 7:13 PM on August 16, 2008 [1 favorite]

Since Russia invaded Georgia and occupied the separatist enclaves of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, looters and armed gangs in uniform — many of them apparently Ossetians, Chechens and Cossacks — have operated behind the army’s path, ransacking villages largely vacated by fleeing civilians.
.....

There'll be several of these kinds of realigning moments over the next few years, and none of them will lead to any significant changes in our daily lives.

Well I am really glad I don't live in rural Georgia. I think having my house looted by Ossetian irregulars and my daughter raped by Cossacks would be a really significant change in my life.

Say what you will about the US military, but bands of irregulars looting and pillaging isn't a normal and intentional part of it's MO. It's like we're back in the 20th century. Russia still hasn't civilized and, for what it's worth, I say a big "fuck you" to Mr. Putin.
posted by Meatbomb at 7:14 PM on August 16, 2008 [1 favorite]

Say what you will about the US military, but bands of irregulars looting and pillaging isn't a normal and intentional part of it's MO.

Right. We leave that to the hired help.
posted by BitterOldPunk at 7:24 PM on August 16, 2008

"I just wanted to start the discussion."

It's a fairly well-established rule that Metafilter is supposed to be about the links, and the discussion is a bonus. A byproduct, if you will, of something interesting that someone found on the web and wanted to share with others.
posted by An Infinity Of Monkeys at 7:29 PM on August 16, 2008 [3 favorites]

Now we just need to provide the Georgians with Sidewinders to take down their helicopters, and it'll all work out.
posted by smackfu at 7:34 PM on August 16, 2008

The Russians blew up a railway bridge today, a major east-west link, on which other nations depend also. They just did it. Boom. That puts a huge squeeze on Europe, because they (we) are very dependent on the natural gas lines, which are far more inflexible than oil pipelines. If the Russians can control the pipelines, they have us under their thumb too. That was the message in that bomb.

Where the hell are you getting this shit? It doesn't put anything on Europe. What other nations? What do natural gas pipelines have to do with railway bridges?

Stop being alarmist and go to bed.
posted by nasreddin at 7:37 PM on August 16, 2008 [1 favorite]

nasreddin writes "Russia isn't going to do anything more than reassert its influence in the CIS and fluff its feathers in front of Western Europe for a little bit. "

Yeah, all Putin wants is peace. Once he guarantees the safety of the ethnic Russians in the Sudetenland, and secures access to East Prussia through the Danzig Corridor, he has no further territorial ambitions.
posted by orthogonality at 7:40 PM on August 16, 2008 [1 favorite]

It's like fcummins has not watched any news in his "46 years" and is having a freak-out over all the new information.
posted by Sangermaine at 7:40 PM on August 16, 2008 [1 favorite]

Yeah, all Putin wants is peace. Once he guarantees the safety of the ethnic Russians in the Sudetenland, and secures access to East Prussia through the Danzig Corridor, he has no further territorial ambitions.

LOL PUTIN IS LIKE HITLER OMG!!111! NO MORE MUNICHS!!!111 NEV4R AGAIN!1
posted by nasreddin at 7:42 PM on August 16, 2008

nasreddin writes "What do natural gas pipelines have to do with railway bridges? "

Taking out a bridge is a none-too-subtle message that you can as easily, and are as willing to, take out a pipeline. That it's Russia, not Georgia, that controls Georgian territory. This message isn't being missed by any former Russian Republic -- or any NATO countries either.
posted by orthogonality at 7:46 PM on August 16, 2008

This is happening very fast folks. 9/11 - style, if any of you kids remember.

yeah, it is happening - to the georgians - sucks to be them, but they asked for it

the rest of it is various impotent people sticking their chests out and pounding them like belligerent monkeys right before they buy each other some drinks and sort it out amongst themselves
posted by pyramid termite at 7:47 PM on August 16, 2008 [1 favorite]

ps - unlike you, mr 46 year old, i'm actually old enough to remember the cuban missle crisis, so you'll have to forgive me if i'm not easily rattled like you are
posted by pyramid termite at 7:48 PM on August 16, 2008 [2 favorites]

[considers making popcorn]
posted by humannaire at 7:53 PM on August 16, 2008

The Georgian thing is a lot like the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand.
In the last 24 hours, nuclear strikes have been clearly on the table.

Oh for christ's sake, what a load of crap. Go to bed; you're going to be embarrassed in the morning.

This is a shitty post. Next time someone hyperventilates over the AP wire, add it to the perfectly good existing post, OK?
posted by languagehat at 7:54 PM on August 16, 2008 [1 favorite]

Taking out a bridge is a none-too-subtle message that you can as easily, and are as willing to, take out a pipeline. That it's Russia, not Georgia, that controls Georgian territory. This message isn't being missed by any former Russian Republic -- or any NATO countries either.

The major pipeline running through Georgia also runs through Azerbaijan, which is friendly to Russia and which Russia has been trying to coax and coddle. There's no way in hell they're going to stab the Azeris in the back like that--and Azerbaijan has learned the lesson of Georgia. It's just bluster. Putin isn't going to conquer anybody. After keeping his troops around for a bit, he'll make a magnanimous gesture (like a kid playing keep-away) and leave the Georgians alone and Saakashvili's reputation in shambles. Just watch.

Facile comparisons to Hitler and Munich are bad when the Right does it, but they're just as bad when the self-proclaimed Left does it.
posted by nasreddin at 7:56 PM on August 16, 2008

An Infinity Of Monkeys: "It's a fairly well-established rule that Metafilter is supposed to be about the links, and the discussion is a bonus. A byproduct, if you will, of something interesting that someone found on the web and wanted to share with others."

..but often poor FPP's have awesome threads, and likewise great FPP's insipid response. There is no rule, MeFi is fairly plastic in how it molds from moment to moment around the personalities involved, as any online community should.

fantabulous timewaster: "stbalbach, has that ever not been typical of war? I have a colleague, a Yankee, who's married to a southerner. When he met his mother-in-law, probably thirty years ago, she pointed to a damaged antique chair and said, "See that? Sherman did that.""

No there is something particularly modern, post-ColdWar about this conflict, it is similar to other post-ColdWar conflicts like in the Balkans or Sudan. It's about organized criminal elements masquerading (or colluding with) state actors for the purposes of criminal economic gain - thugs and ruffians as Bush calls them. Part of the larger trend of crime operating in the vacuum of international law. It's sort of the dark side of globalization.
posted by stbalbach at 7:57 PM on August 16, 2008

Taking out a bridge is a none-too-subtle message that you can as easily, and are as willing to, take out a pipeline.

Who, exactly, is surprised that Russia can take out a bridge? Or a pipeline? Russia can take out a whole fucking continent if it's so inclined.
posted by pardonyou? at 8:00 PM on August 16, 2008

Yeah, all Putin wants is peace. Once he guarantees the safety of the ethnic Russians in the Sudetenland, and secures access to East Prussia through the Danzig Corridor, he has no further territorial ambitions.

Well, I just hope Chairman Mao stays out of all this. But I guess he's pretty busy with the Olympics now, so, I guess I shouldn't worry.
posted by flapjax at midnite at 8:03 PM on August 16, 2008 [2 favorites]

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