Presidential Betting Market Acting a Little Oddly
September 24, 2008 1:37 PM Subscribe
posted by WCityMike (39 comments total)
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Nate Silver, the proprietor of the fantastic electoral projection site FiveThirtyEight.com
, notices that the presidential betting market on Intrade is behaving very oddly
: "[S]ome individual trader or some small group of traders are shorting all the Obama contacts in bulk and resetting the entire market. The markets then organically climb back upward until the rogue trader strikes again six or eight hours later."
"So?" you say. "Meh." But adding a little curiousity to this matter, "this [rogue] trader is not only selling Obama contracts and buying McCain contracts ... they also seem to be buying Hillary Clinton contracts. [...] So someone is betting on some sort of disqualifying event happening to Obama."
Is this a zomgzomgzomgCONSPIRACY?! No. But it is a intriguing little side wrinkle. And I imagine you didn't know that "[b]etween the Obama and McCain contracts, there appears to be about $400,000 in contracts changing hands every day."1
And, as Silver points out, "I don't think this is any cause for alarm ... if Joe Biden
contracts were being bought up as part of this scheme, that might be more concerning, but they aren't. Still, if I were the FBI, I would probably want to know the identity of this trader."
1"Contract" being analogous in this case to "bet."