Comments on: What happens when the Big One hits?

What happens when the Big One hits?

rtha — Wed, 12 Nov 2008 12:38:13 -0800

Is Oakland supposed to...ripple like that?

When the Hayward Fault finally flips out - and it will - what will it do to the Bay Area? Geologists have created simulations, from Berkeley to San Jose. warning: pop-up quicktime movies in the last link. Previously on MetaFilter; currently on AskMe (yes, you should buy earthquake insurance).

By: Burhanistan

Burhanistan — Wed, 12 Nov 2008 12:41:07 -0800

Looks like the ripple in that first video was done by a lazy animator who just made the whole frame ripple rather than the drawn topography. That or when the Hayward Fault looses its shit time and space will have trouble keeping up.

By: ericb

ericb — Wed, 12 Nov 2008 12:43:38 -0800

California preps for the 'Big One' -- "'The Great Southern California Shakeout' is the largest earthquake drill in U.S. history." [video | 02.28]

By: Malor

Malor — Wed, 12 Nov 2008 12:45:06 -0800

Yes. This actually happens. I was in Santa Rosa, California for the Loma Prieta quake. When we realized there was an earthquake, we ran outside and waited on the large lawn. It was amazing to watch; large waves were rolling through the ground, just like ocean waves. The concrete and asphalt didn't buckle; they flexed in strange and disturbing ways. That animation is probably precisely correct.

By: demiurge

demiurge — Wed, 12 Nov 2008 12:46:23 -0800

The video says it's a 1000x exaggeration.

By: queensissy

queensissy — Wed, 12 Nov 2008 12:49:47 -0800

I prefer my earthquake simulations to be made in jello.

By: allen.spaulding

allen.spaulding — Wed, 12 Nov 2008 12:55:53 -0800

Oakland wobbles but it don't fall down.

By: kuujjuarapik

kuujjuarapik — Wed, 12 Nov 2008 13:03:18 -0800

whoo whoooo.

By: deejay jaydee

deejay jaydee — Wed, 12 Nov 2008 13:04:12 -0800

nthing demiurge above . . . it's a 1000x exaggeration . . . of an earthquake that attains a magnitude of IX on the richter scale of intensity?? gosh . . . talk about a BIG one . . .

By: Marisa Stole the Precious Thing

Marisa Stole the Precious Thing — Wed, 12 Nov 2008 13:12:14 -0800

The Hayward Fault quake will actually be divine punishment for the hyphy movement.

By: cjorgensen

cjorgensen — Wed, 12 Nov 2008 13:13:53 -0800

It's actually reassuring to me that this is the only post with a doomedItellyoudoomed tag. And I live in Iowa. We only have tornados and floods here (usually not at the same time). Wild fires, Prop 8, earthquakes, Schwarzenegger. California is screwed.

By: filthy light thief

filthy light thief — Wed, 12 Nov 2008 13:18:39 -0800

Eh, Californians can prepare (for most of it). Earthquakes: build to code, and then some. Fires: stick with populated city centers, away from large brushy areas and canyons of firey doom. Prop 8: there's a legal process for this (hopefully). Schwarzenegger: unclear - he might not be that bad (compared to past folks - the whole special election was a huge waste, but it's over now). Floods? Build high above any possible flood plain. Tornadoes? Pray to the gods of unpredictability that someone else gets it and not you. Those are some scary muvvas (speaking as a Californian).

By: Damn That Television

Damn That Television — Wed, 12 Nov 2008 13:20:33 -0800

Ghost ride the earth

By: Sys Rq

Sys Rq — Wed, 12 Nov 2008 13:20:48 -0800

Well, what do you expect when you build a city on rock and roll?

By: loquacious

loquacious — Wed, 12 Nov 2008 13:22:24 -0800

Am I the only one that immediately loaded this page before anything else on reading the title? Yeah, the ripple is exaggerated for visual effect, otherwise from that altitude and view the movement would be sub-pixel. If the ground actually moved that far and that fast you'd see entire skyscrapers being thrown into the sky like bowling pins. Brick houses would explode like they were made out of dynamite and the resulting tsunami would probably make a new (old) sea out of the Imperial Valley. Which could totally happen. Those mountains came from somewhere. It's just probably more likely to happen in Yellowstone's Megacaldera. Also: STOP PLATE TECTONICS.

By: Kirth Gerson

Kirth Gerson — Wed, 12 Nov 2008 13:22:36 -0800

cjorgensen, you're not out of the woods yet.

By: vporter

vporter — Wed, 12 Nov 2008 13:26:46 -0800

I checked this when I saw this post.

By: mr_roboto

mr_roboto — Wed, 12 Nov 2008 13:29:45 -0800

And I live in Iowa. We only have tornados and floods here (usually not at the same time). The New Madrid Seismic Zone.

By: mullingitover

mullingitover — Wed, 12 Nov 2008 13:32:02 -0800

Marisa Stole the Precious Thing writes "The Hayward Fault quake will actually be divine punishment for the hyphy movement." It'll be divine punishment for mocking the hyphy movement. *goes back to sippin' drank*

By: empyrean

empyrean — Wed, 12 Nov 2008 13:32:53 -0800

I left California last year after a 3 year stay and, in regard to this particular issue (earthquakes), I am tearfully glad of that move. I experienced one very mild 30 second rolling quake in my brief stay and yeah. The earth randomly moving around under my fucking feet? I'm not cool with that. A flood? No problem. Hurricane? Been there, done that. Tornado? At least there's a chance of a siren. Earthquakes weird me out, man.

By: Marisa Stole the Precious Thing

Marisa Stole the Precious Thing — Wed, 12 Nov 2008 13:33:51 -0800

It'll be divine punishment for mocking the hyphy movement. Did I say "hyphy movement"? I meant "crunk, given new name and different terminology".

By: SaintCynr

SaintCynr — Wed, 12 Nov 2008 13:49:29 -0800

I was at work in SoDo Seattle during the Nisqually Quake, and looked out the window just as it hit. The cars in the parking lot were being borne aloft on a swelling sea of asphalt, gently rising and falling. Felt like the first few weird moments after the acid hits.

By: billysumday

billysumday — Wed, 12 Nov 2008 13:51:12 -0800

I hope whoever Obama appoints to FEMA has their shit together when it comes to earthquakes. Because if a big one hit the Bay Area or SoCal, it could really turn into a Katrina x10. Especially in SF where, if shit goes bad, there aren't a lot of ways to flee the peninsula. And to dismiss the threat of catastrophe by citing earthquake-proof building codes sort of ignores all the underground wiring and gas lines and such that could ignite SF into a ball of fire and destruction and take the city down once again. I mean, a huge earthquake is going to happen there, it's just a matter of when. Hopefully when I'm nowhere near it.

By: The Light Fantastic

The Light Fantastic — Wed, 12 Nov 2008 14:02:31 -0800

Good thing that "there's no there there," or shit would fall down!

By: maxwelton

maxwelton — Wed, 12 Nov 2008 14:11:36 -0800

My house sits almost exactly on top of the southern Whidbey Island fault. Good times! In the Nisqually quake, I had just stepped from the shower in my 1900 frame house in Seattle. I had visions of being the most embarrassing body pulled from the wreckage.

By: carsonb

carsonb — Wed, 12 Nov 2008 14:13:44 -0800

Do the Golden Bears still have the endzone sections of their stadium tarped over? I work for a city government now, and have to call in on my day off tomorrow after making sure my pets and roommate are OK. ...should probably crack open the earthquake buckets and make sure everything's still groovy there too. Thanks for the reminder!

By: mosk

mosk — Wed, 12 Nov 2008 14:16:15 -0800

Yeah, speaking as someone who's lived on the SF Peninsula his entire life, the Hayward fault scares the shit out of me! Loma Prieta was certainly scary, but most of the real damage took place elsewhere, primarily in Santa Cruz, Oakland, and SF. When the Hayward fault lets go, we're all fucked. For anyone who lives in the area, and especially those that own a home, I highly recommend reviewing the material on the Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG) earthquake information page. There's a lot of good info there, even if the site design is straight outta 1998.

By: deadmessenger

deadmessenger — Wed, 12 Nov 2008 14:26:30 -0800

Looks like the worst of it will be east of 580, which makes me happy now that I spend about half my time living in Emeryville.

By: billysumday

billysumday — Wed, 12 Nov 2008 14:27:46 -0800

Uh, Emeryville? You know that's just an artificially created jut of land, right? It'll liquify and dissolve into the bay faster than you can say "Pixar".

By: not applicable

not applicable — Wed, 12 Nov 2008 14:47:29 -0800

I'm doubtful when I hear people talk about liquefaction. I was in the Kobe earthquake in 1995 (a 7.2 or 7.3) and I lived an an artificial island. The damage to the physical island itself wasn't too extensive. It certainly didn't dissolve into the ocean. Some big cracks appeared in the soccer fields, some watery sludge gurgled up and the ports near the water had some pretty extensive damage to the concrete that made up their general structure. But like I said, it wasn't the end of days. Our island actually escaped relatively unscathed compared to the rest of Kobe. Is the bay area especially vulnerable? How is it different from other artificial islands or earthquake scenarios? I guess some more info on the fpp would have been relevant, though I'm sure its been discussed on mefi before.

By: quin

quin — Wed, 12 Nov 2008 15:01:39 -0800

I'm going to choose to believe that what I'm seeing here is that Oakland is actually a non-Newtonian fluid.

By: wildcrdj

wildcrdj — Wed, 12 Nov 2008 15:04:48 -0800

Well, the USGS stuff linked under "it will" is talking about the probability of a 6.7 or above. Even a 7 magnitude isn't going to cause chaos -- perhaps extensive property damage, but loss of life will be minimal and disruption is unlikely to be severe. Loma Prieta was a 7.1, for example. Anything over 8 would be the real worry (and a 9 could be insane), but I haven't seen any estimates on how likely those are. While building codes aren't an invincible shield, look at the difference between a 7 here and, say, the 1999 earthquake in Turkey (7.4) which killed tens of thousands.

By: billysumday

billysumday — Wed, 12 Nov 2008 15:05:37 -0800

I'm doubtful when I hear people talk about liquefaction. You may very well be doubtful when "people" talk about liquefaction, but what about "geologists"? They're like people but nerdier and much more fascinated by rocks!! Significant portions of Alameda County could be susceptible to landslides or liquefaction in the event of a strong earthquake, according to six new Seismic Hazard Zone maps released today by the California Department of Conservation.

By: rtha

rtha — Wed, 12 Nov 2008 15:07:04 -0800

Liquefaction is what pancaked houses in SF's Marina district during Loma Prieta. More on liquefaction.

By: rtha

rtha — Wed, 12 Nov 2008 15:12:07 -0800

"9. An automobile lies crushed under the third story of this apartment building in the Marina District. The ground levels are no longer visible because of structural failure and sinking due to liquefaction. [J.K. Nakata, U.S. Geological Survey]"

By: not applicable

not applicable — Wed, 12 Nov 2008 15:33:51 -0800

maybe not doubtful then, more like confused.

By: buggzzee23

buggzzee23 — Wed, 12 Nov 2008 15:51:03 -0800

Great quakes are indeed terrifying, but as others have said, survivable if buildings are up to California code. We were right in the thick of things for the Mw7.3 Landers quake of 1992 and 1999's Mw7.3 Hector Mine earthquake. Watching the response and cooperation of local, state and federal government agencies and the speed and efficiency at which NGO's, private industry and various private groups joined in the effort was pretty impressive. Those of us who live in California like to gripe a lot about our government, but there is no better place to be when disaster hits. With the possible exception of Florida, no other state is as prepared (or as experienced) for anything like our state government. And that preparation extends down through most of our county/city governments, along with private industries that know in advance what their contribution will be. Perhaps most importantly, we private citiizens have been constantly bombarded with what we need to be ready for. But, even with all of the forethought, preparation and practice, things are gonna be Hell here for a period of years after the Big One hits and the infrastructure is rebuilt.

By: flapjax at midnite

flapjax at midnite — Wed, 12 Nov 2008 15:55:53 -0800

Ripple? Hell yeah, man! It's just like Garcia sang: "Ripple in still water, when there is no pebble tossed, no wind to blow..." The Dead knew about all this stuff, man, that's why everybody oughtta be listening to the Dead, man.

By: bwg

bwg — Wed, 12 Nov 2008 15:59:40 -0800

You can build to code, but nature has a way of exceeding those tolerances. So good luck with that.

By: jenfullmoon

jenfullmoon — Wed, 12 Nov 2008 16:27:09 -0800

I just keep hoping I won't be in the Bay when this thing hits. At the very least, I'll have to start taking people in if their houses destruct. Which it looks like at least some folks will. Eeek.

By: Marisa Stole the Precious Thing

Marisa Stole the Precious Thing — Wed, 12 Nov 2008 16:32:53 -0800

Ripple? Hell yeah, man! It's just like Garcia sang: "Ripple in still water, when there is no pebble tossed, no wind to blow..." The Dead knew about all this stuff, man, that's why everybody oughtta be listening to the Dead, man. Have you ever lived in a house full of Deadheads? Deadheads who exchange what sounds like the same shitty live bootleg back and forth, raving about "Philly 96! Oh man, that's nothing compared to Detroit 83!" even though each tape sounds like the same boring, plinkety-plinkety, 45-minute noodle-fest? Deadheads whose idea of a "break" from listening to the Dead every waking hour is to play some Steve Miller, and who will drop their bongs, bellowing with rage, if you try playing any other band? If not, then trust me - not everybody ought to be listening to the Dead. Which I say knowing full well you were just making a joke, man. Heh.

By: tss

tss — Wed, 12 Nov 2008 16:36:49 -0800

How to Tell that This Video is Exaggerated (Besides the 1000x exaggeration legend in the figure) The foreground shows a long runway at an international airport; in general, these are about 10,000 feet long. Compared to this length, the end of the runway seems to oscillate about 2000 feet, with one thrust taking about three seconds. 2000 feet in 3 seconds is 2000*3600/3 = 2,400,000 ft/hr = 455 miles per hour, which is really too fast for rocks that aren't meteors.

By: gottabefunky

gottabefunky — Wed, 12 Nov 2008 16:51:56 -0800

Marc Reisner, who wrote Cadillac Desert, talked about this in his last book, A Dangerous Place. The last part of the otherwise nonfiction book is his imagining what it would be like to be there when the big one hits. Takeaway message: it's not the quake that probably gets you, it's the fires that rage out of control once all the water lines are cut.

By: rtha

rtha — Wed, 12 Nov 2008 17:20:42 -0800

I'v been too afraid to read that book...

By: benzenedream

benzenedream — Wed, 12 Nov 2008 17:38:50 -0800

Thanks Mosk. That ABAG site is great.

By: bottlebrushtree

bottlebrushtree — Wed, 12 Nov 2008 18:01:01 -0800

whoo whoooo. I was a little out of sorts since I didn't know where I put my glasses before I went to bed. Besides my house falling on me, my other big worry is being blind after the quake.

By: supermedusa

supermedusa — Wed, 12 Nov 2008 19:11:53 -0800

bbt, I am SOOO paranoid about my glasses getting smooshed in a quake, and here I am barely a few miles from the Hayward Fault!

By: hangingbyathread

hangingbyathread — Wed, 12 Nov 2008 20:43:43 -0800

Waking up in the middle of the night because of minor quakes here in Oakland pushed me to finally get Lasik. I couldn't stand the thought of being disoriented and blind in the middle of a big trembler.

By: 445supermag

445supermag — Wed, 12 Nov 2008 21:02:46 -0800

Video of liquefaction in Japan (1964).

By: flapjax at midnite

flapjax at midnite — Wed, 12 Nov 2008 21:15:29 -0800

I'm relieved to see that you knew it was a joke, MStPT. And, yes, I've spent some time here and there with Deadheads like you mention. Tiresome, brother, tiresome.

By: Burhanistan

Burhanistan — Wed, 12 Nov 2008 21:16:58 -0800

Video of liquefaction in Japan (1964). Holy crap! What would that do to somoene who fell down while it was going on around them? Just give them a good bone rattling shake or would some of those waves continue through their body and turn them into slurry?

By: flapjax at midnite

flapjax at midnite — Wed, 12 Nov 2008 21:28:52 -0800

By: flapjax at midnite

flapjax at midnite — Wed, 12 Nov 2008 21:32:42 -0800

...or would some of those waves continue through their body and turn them into slurry? Maybe elsewhere, B-han, but here in Japan it turns you into miso soup. Mmmm! Miso soup!

By: Burhanistan

Burhanistan — Wed, 12 Nov 2008 21:34:16 -0800

Ah, so if you were caught in the middle of liquefaction taking place you would probably just sink down like you were in quicksand and then suffocate to death. How...comforting.

By: Burhanistan

Burhanistan — Wed, 12 Nov 2008 21:35:29 -0800

Heh...you would exclaim "Me so soup!" (cause of the broken English acceptance of your fate of becoming soup, see)

By: LordSludge

LordSludge — Wed, 12 Nov 2008 21:37:03 -0800

On a positive note, Maynard is happy.

By: pmbuko

pmbuko — Wed, 12 Nov 2008 21:42:25 -0800

Maybe it will drive real estate prices down enough so I can move back from Virginia and finally buy my California home.

By: fshgrl

fshgrl — Wed, 12 Nov 2008 21:59:13 -0800

It really does ripple like that on soft substrate- I saw an earthquake on a flat expanse of sand once and it was pretty cool. It shook all the tracks out like an Etch-A-Sketch. What I'm really waiting for is a repeat of the the 1862 flood.. They say it rained for so long that water flowed out against the tide through the Golden Gate for 8 straight days. The central valley was submerged to the tops of the telegraph poles and Orange County was an inland sea. They had to inaugurate the new governor in a rowboat.

By: Burhanistan

Burhanistan — Wed, 12 Nov 2008 22:01:38 -0800

On fishgirl's seismic fetish is 2 million other people's overarching catastrophic nightmare.

By: The Light Fantastic

The Light Fantastic — Wed, 12 Nov 2008 22:05:13 -0800

Maybe it will drive real estate prices down enough so I can move back from Virginia and finally buy my California home. I have friends that are just waiting for the big one to come so that they can afford property.

By: flapjax at midnite

flapjax at midnite — Wed, 12 Nov 2008 23:32:12 -0800

broken English acceptance of your fate My new favorite phrase.

By: librarylis

librarylis — Thu, 13 Nov 2008 00:24:30 -0800

So, I've been to Alaska, and I've always been more freaked out by *their* earthquakes than California's. Ghost trees? For miles and miles? No, thanks, I'll take San Francisco circa 1906, fire and all. Not because the huge earthquake and the fires and floods afterward were in any way better than the '64 Alaska quake, but because Californians by and large know what to expect out of their quakes. We've been preparing and learning (can't underestimate that) for years, and optimism says that those are important in the scheme of things.

By: fshgrl

fshgrl — Thu, 13 Nov 2008 00:46:44 -0800

On fishgirl's seismic fetish is 2 million other people's overarching catastrophic nightmare. Oh it's not seismic, it's just a really big rainstorm. And its pretty much bound to happen again some day. But apparently people never learn when it comes to building houses and other important in risky places. Me included. I live, literally, on the San Andreas fault.

By: Phineas Rhyne

Phineas Rhyne — Thu, 13 Nov 2008 21:32:23 -0800

As a project for my work, I was called upon to convert liquefaction maps for the 9 counties north of the bay into Google Maps overlays. It's sort of sobering to see just how much of the area actually is in some danger of liquefaction/settlement. Then again, I'm also nth-ing the "we know how to build/plan/prepare for it" comments above. California's fascination with the earth is the reason I became a geologist in the first place.