All predictions are wrong. Or are they?
January 7, 2009 2:13 AM Subscribe
posted by Mutant (32 comments total)
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Every year the Strategy Team at Saxo Bank
, a Danish virtual bank
, publishes a list of ten black swan class market events. Some of the more dramatic possibilities Saxo advance for 2009: crude trading down to $25 a barrel causing severe social unrest in Iran, the S&P 500 falling to 500, Chinese GDP approaching zero and several member states dropping the Euro. The complete 2009 list is here
and for completeness their 2008
[ .pdf ] , 2007
[ .pdf ] and 2006
lists [ .pdf ] are also available.
Popularised by Nassim Taleb's The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
, black swan events are by definition statistical outliers
. Low in probability but potentially high in impact, even in the best of times prudence would dictate market participants at least be aware of - if not plan for - all