Comments on: A perfect space storm

A perfect space storm

stbalbach — Wed, 07 Jan 2009 08:31:13 -0800

A perfect space storm, which happens about every century, like the one that occurred in 1859, could cause "catastrophic social and economic disruptions", according to a new study by the National Academy of Sciences on behalf of NASA. "Potable water distribution affected within several hours; perishable foods and medications lost in 12-24 hours; immediate or eventual loss of heating/air conditioning, sewage disposal, phone service, transportation, fuel resupply and so on," the report states. Outages could take months to fix, the researchers say. Banks might close, and trade with other countries might halt. The next peak in solar activity is expected around 2012.

By: cavalier

cavalier — Wed, 07 Jan 2009 08:33:41 -0800

Since the Yahoo News link is sourced from Space.com, here is the original content from space.com -- I'm hoping their URL will last longer than the 4-6 weeks the News link will survive. NEAT! Mayan 2012 Apocalpytic-Chicken dance anyone?

By: cjorgensen

cjorgensen — Wed, 07 Jan 2009 08:34:10 -0800

Mayan's were right?

By: iamkimiam

iamkimiam — Wed, 07 Jan 2009 08:38:18 -0800

Didn't they make a movie about this?

By: cavalier

cavalier — Wed, 07 Jan 2009 08:39:27 -0800

Pretty barren homepage, but it's got a juicy teaser: "As I'm sure you know, they are coming back in just a few years. Check back here for additional information and items that you will need to be prepared." -- mayan2012.com.

By: mannequito

mannequito — Wed, 07 Jan 2009 08:39:52 -0800

That's weird, because the most rational interpretation I ever read of the Mayans predicitions was along the lines of the Earth's magnetism shifting and displacing its current angle to the sun, and in turn causing such a sudden change in climate for most of the world's population that a great many will die.

By: DU

DU — Wed, 07 Jan 2009 08:40:11 -0800

Well that's pretty scary. The solar observing community could give some warning but what are you going to do? Even as a homeowner I was like....turn off the computer? Ineffective, I bet. Maybe construct a Faraday cage around it (or the entire house?) with chicken wire?

By: Happy Dave

Happy Dave — Wed, 07 Jan 2009 08:42:39 -0800

Sheesh, all about the DOOM on the Blue today. Between this and the Black Swans post, I'm about ready to go and hide under the covers.

By: emjaybee

emjaybee — Wed, 07 Jan 2009 08:45:45 -0800

Is it National Panic Week and nobody told me? Because I forgot to wear my brown pants. :(

By: Durn Bronzefist

Durn Bronzefist — Wed, 07 Jan 2009 08:47:03 -0800

The Hydro-Quebec wiki article has a good level of detail on what actually occurred in 1989.

By: Joe Beese

Joe Beese — Wed, 07 Jan 2009 08:48:07 -0800

"The time has come to panic."

By: seanyboy

seanyboy — Wed, 07 Jan 2009 08:53:35 -0800

meh - It'll be fine.

By: HuronBob

HuronBob — Wed, 07 Jan 2009 08:53:41 -0800

They just don't make enough tin foil for you folks around here, do they?

By: jamstigator

jamstigator — Wed, 07 Jan 2009 08:56:07 -0800

Yikes. But...it seems to me that more or less the same precautions to deal with a breakdown in civilization due to a global financial meltdown would also help if a big space storm hits. You're gonna need to be able to handle the same stuff regardless of the disaster: shelter, food/water, light, medicines, security, transportation. All the talk about a new Depression had already motivated me to start making just-in-case SHTF (shit hits the fan) precautions to deal with a widespread breakdown in, well, everything. By the time 2012 rolls around I plan on being pretty damn prepared to just walk away from modern society for a lengthy period of time, if need be.

By: mrmojoflying

mrmojoflying — Wed, 07 Jan 2009 08:57:54 -0800

I joke with my parents off and on about moving back to the homestead, picking up a Winchester defender for every member of the family, and reinforcing the cistern and generator housing. But then we'd be like the rest of the family.

By: mrmojoflying

mrmojoflying — Wed, 07 Jan 2009 08:58:53 -0800

And by that I mean a bunch of country living social Armageddon waiting crazies.

By: DU

DU — Wed, 07 Jan 2009 09:02:12 -0800

Living in the suburbs, with a large, gardenable yard and access to streams and rivers, doesn't look so dumb now, eh?

By: Brandon Blatcher

Brandon Blatcher — Wed, 07 Jan 2009 09:04:09 -0800

*lights up cigs, opens flask and heads for the local greasy spoon*

By: filthy light thief

filthy light thief — Wed, 07 Jan 2009 09:32:12 -0800

Pfft, everything will be fine. We'll have had the fantastic first four years of President Obama to prepare us for this event. Then again, if the new administration can't save the US, the Republicans can use it as a major example of how the Democrats are weak in the face of Solar Threats. ---------------------------- I didn't get far enough into the 3rd link to see if they mentioned 2012, I found this MSNBC article which states [h]alf of the specialists predicted a moderately strong cycle of 140 sunspots expected to peak in October of 2011, while the rest called for a moderately weak cycle of 90 sunspots peaking in August of 2012. The twelve-member panel hopes to achieve a consensus sometime in the next six to 12 months.

By: VicNebulous

VicNebulous — Wed, 07 Jan 2009 09:35:18 -0800

Well, if it doesn't happen, at least we can still look forward to Asteroid 99942 Apophis. Will this be Obama's Katrina?

By: happyroach

happyroach — Wed, 07 Jan 2009 09:40:21 -0800

And then the zombie outbreak comes, right? It's from space, it involves radiation 'n shit, and so, zombies, right? Please?

By: Devils Rancher

Devils Rancher — Wed, 07 Jan 2009 09:41:34 -0800

People, people! This is not the time for panic -- this is the time for finger-pointing, ass-covering and recrimination!

By: FatherDagon

FatherDagon — Wed, 07 Jan 2009 09:47:22 -0800

I cannot fucking WAIT until 2013, when we won't have any more malingering prophecy years of apocalyptic doom lurking around the damn calendar. Until 2666, at least.

By: FatherDagon

FatherDagon — Wed, 07 Jan 2009 09:54:43 -0800

I mean, when the stars are right, you'll just KNOW. All this this calendar year business is just a distraction.

By: The Light Fantastic

The Light Fantastic — Wed, 07 Jan 2009 10:12:53 -0800

So I fill a bunch of water jugs, lay in a bunch of candles and good books and....... Relax!

By: stupidsexyFlanders

stupidsexyFlanders — Wed, 07 Jan 2009 10:14:53 -0800

What's with the apocolyptafilter? Reading this site for the past couple of weeks has been more scary than watching a George Bush press conference. Thank God my horror needs will remain satisfied through the Obama years.

By: homunculus

homunculus — Wed, 07 Jan 2009 10:25:32 -0800

Earth Atmosphere "Breathes," Thanks to Solar Winds

By: elwoodwiles

elwoodwiles — Wed, 07 Jan 2009 10:26:31 -0800

Will this be Obama's Katrina? It depends on how he reacts to it.

By: 1adam12

1adam12 — Wed, 07 Jan 2009 10:29:00 -0800

mrmojoflying, we're thinking of a Springfield M6 Scout instead. But seriously, there's nothing any of us can do about this other than keep the same kind of disaster kit around you'd want to have for any natural disaster. Several weeks worth of usable firewood, ditto canned and/or dried food, several tens of gallons of bottled water and a supply of purifying tablets. No point freaking out. Oh, wait, does this list mean I've already freaked out?

By: aramaic

aramaic — Wed, 07 Jan 2009 10:32:40 -0800

So, you're saying it's time for us to smash each others heads open and feast on the goo inside?

By: infinitefloatingbrains

infinitefloatingbrains — Wed, 07 Jan 2009 10:35:18 -0800

This study brought to you by Sony Pictures.

By: mrmojoflying

mrmojoflying — Wed, 07 Jan 2009 10:49:32 -0800

mrmojoflying, we're thinking of a Springfield M6 Scout instead. Neat rifle that I wasn't familiar with, but a little outside of my price range for apocalypse survival. But seriously, on this front, I've recommended to the folks to double the size of the cistern and to start taking home security at least seriously enough that they lock the windows, since they live in the middle of the woods. They've got a hell of a gasoline generator, but have balked several times on getting a natural gas gen with a 3-phase automatic transfer built in. I don't think they feel like they have the time to pour a slab and wire it up right now. Another big snowstorm might change their mind since they have gas heat (and hot water). Durable sources of heat, water, home protection, and three or four months worth of non-perishable food isn't freaking out if you have the means to acquire or provide it. Where I'm from it's called having a long memory.

By: blue_beetle

blue_beetle — Wed, 07 Jan 2009 11:14:09 -0800

There are 1485 anagrams for "Space Storm". One of them holds the key to earth's survival.

By: redteam

redteam — Wed, 07 Jan 2009 11:20:09 -0800

Don't pay attention to any of the apocalyptic 2012 nonsense related to Mayans. Most of that stuff was made up by the renowned shit-filled huckster, José Argüelles. Yes, the Harmonic Convergence guy. If you insist on believing that garbage, I want to ask you something: do you really believe the Mayans could predict the future? Maybe you also believe that they invented television.

By: maqsarian

maqsarian — Wed, 07 Jan 2009 12:11:34 -0800

There are 1485 anagrams for "Space Storm". One of them holds the key to earth's survival. God, I hope it's not "Taco Sperms". Maybe it's "Scam Poster". Holden Karnofsky will save us all.

By: Freen

Freen — Wed, 07 Jan 2009 12:31:53 -0800

Hate to break it to you, but every other time the mayan long count has completed a cycle? Nothing very interesting happened. 1618 1224 830 435 41 354 BC However, solar storms like this? Now, I've got to worry about the yellowstone supervolcano, a mega-tsunami from the canary islands, killer asteroids and now my good friend, the sun, ruining all my toys and destroying modern civilization as we know it. At least we don't have to worry about the imminent Robot overlords. They're totally screwed.

By: rand

rand — Wed, 07 Jan 2009 13:01:29 -0800

I cannot fucking WAIT until 2013, when we won't have any more malingering prophecy years of apocalyptic doom lurking around the damn calendar. Nah, they'll just find another calender. Mayan calenders? Pffft. Totally wrong. The real Date of the Apocalypse will be from the ancient Danish Calender of DOOM. That's right, the Danish. 2015. Mark your crappy non-apocalypse predicting calenders people!

By: quin

quin — Wed, 07 Jan 2009 13:15:59 -0800

But seriously, there's nothing any of us can do about this other than keep the same kind of disaster kit around you'd want to have for any natural disaster. This may or may not include: leather jacket, sawed off shotgun, canned pet food, V8 Interceptor, and a cattle dog. Alternatively, it could be the emergency kit variant that relies heavily on assless chaps, motorcycles, and mohawk cutting and coloring tools. As for me? I've resigned myself to the fact that because I'm well prepared, I'm guaranteed to die in the first few moments of any disaster, that way when the intrepid hero and his band of adventurers find my dessicated corpse in my car, they can open the trunk and find a full cache of supplies which will help them through into Act 3 of their story.

By: peppito

peppito — Wed, 07 Jan 2009 13:18:38 -0800

"The time has come to panic." What I want to know is how can I benefit from this panic? Invest in companies that make panic related products? Nabisco? The History Channel?

By: briank

briank — Wed, 07 Jan 2009 13:31:26 -0800

Now, I've got to worry about the yellowstone supervolcano, a mega-tsunami from the canary islands, killer asteroids and now my good friend, the sun, ruining all my toys and destroying modern civilization as we know it. At least we don't have to worry about the imminent Robot overlords. They're totally screwed. Freen, you forgot bird flu. But that's supposed to kill us all any day now, so probably by the time all those other things happen, we'll all be dead anyway.

By: rusty

rusty — Wed, 07 Jan 2009 13:41:55 -0800

Damn! And I just got done cleaning up from that Y2K disaster.

By: AzzaMcKazza

AzzaMcKazza — Wed, 07 Jan 2009 14:10:29 -0800

YES!!! Another reason to look forward to 2012. Man, it is going to be one Nervous year. BTW, 2012 isn't going to bring on THE END OF THE WORLD, but a massive consciousness change that will change the world 'as we perceive it' I for one look forward to this. It's much preferable to the world blowing up.

By: Halloween Jack

Halloween Jack — Wed, 07 Jan 2009 14:39:08 -0800

You're all ignoring the obvious solution: get the space storm and the Yellowstone supervolcano to fight each other, preferably on Venus.

By: Smedleyman

Smedleyman — Wed, 07 Jan 2009 14:41:27 -0800

"But seriously, there's nothing any of us can do about this other than keep the same kind of disaster kit around you'd want to have for any natural disaster." *adjusts assless chaps* (Say...aren't all chaps assless?) Yeah, that and developing cooperation skills and the ability to work in a group along with making dynamic social connections with people with wide varieties of skills as well. Always irked me about the barricade mentality, folks seem to prize competition above cooperation. Why? Never made any sense to me and I'm armed to the teeth. I mean it's a cute joke - give a man a fish and he'll eat for a day, give a man a gun and everyone will give him fish. But there's not a damned thing you can get with a firearm that's not a short term solution. Even ammo depends on a supply chain. I mean, sure, when a violent response is an option, typically it's the only option. But, what, you're going to train a gun on a doctor all day? Folks survive because they cooperate. Typically in disasters there's that bit of time where people go a little nuts. So maybe you need to compete around then. But if you've got a nice network set up already, you know people, they know you, you've got a place, etc. You'll wind up fat, happy and free while most folks are hole up waiting for the wind to change.

By: Pseudology

Pseudology — Wed, 07 Jan 2009 14:52:34 -0800

On December 21st 2012 I'm holding an end of the world party. Everyone must bring non-perishable foods and tin foil hats.

By: theora55

theora55 — Wed, 07 Jan 2009 15:05:46 -0800

Solar storms make for some amazing aurora displays. I hope the world doesn't end before the pretty light show.

By: qvantamon

qvantamon — Wed, 07 Jan 2009 15:42:47 -0800

You know what's going to be funny? If the world really ends at Dec 21st 2012, statistically there will be someone, somewhere, completely clueless about it, that will be flushing their toilet at the exact moment everything starts to... let's say... go down the crapper. You can imagine the guy pushing the button, looking around and crying "HOLY SHIT! WHAT HAVE I JUST DONE?"

By: AzzaMcKazza

AzzaMcKazza — Wed, 07 Jan 2009 15:54:16 -0800

qvantamon - Oh man. That thought just made me even KEENER for 2012

By: Uther Bentrazor

Uther Bentrazor — Wed, 07 Jan 2009 17:35:13 -0800

Christ, if I can't convince the world as a whole to, can we here at Metafilter make an effort this year to never use the tired term "Perfect Storm" anymore? I know that movie had a catchy title and all, but seriously, not every clusterfuck is a Perfect Storm.

By: Marisa Stole the Precious Thing

Marisa Stole the Precious Thing — Wed, 07 Jan 2009 18:04:25 -0800

There's not really much reason to panic. To quote:

"A catastrophic failure of commercial and government infrastructure in space and on the ground can be mitigated through raising public awareness, improving vulnerable infrastructure and developing advanced forecasting capabilities," the report states.

What amounts to a power surge through the electrical grids of planet Earth doesn't necessarily spell the end of civilization. Probably a few chaotic hours here and there, but essential services will undoubtedly have back-ups in the event of a surge/failure (many if not most already do), and off-grid locations will probably not really feel it at all.

By: Mitheral

Mitheral — Wed, 07 Jan 2009 18:34:36 -0800

DU writes "Living in the suburbs, with a large, gardenable yard and access to streams and rivers, doesn't look so dumb now, eh?" It takes a few years to turn turf into a decent garden free of wire worms, cutworms, and other assorted vegitable killing pests. So you'll want to get started digging. qvantamon writes "If the world really ends at Dec 21st 2012, statistically there will be someone, somewhere, completely clueless about it, that will be flushing their toilet at the exact moment everything starts to... let's say... go down the crapper. You can imagine the guy pushing the button, looking around and crying 'HOLY SHIT! WHAT HAVE I JUST DONE?'" This happened to me last year. I was staying at my sisters and just as I flicked off the outside light all the lights in town went out. Very surreal for at least a few seconds and I actually instinctively flicked the switch back on hoping to turn the town back on.

By: BrotherCaine

BrotherCaine — Wed, 07 Jan 2009 18:35:06 -0800

MStPT: What about the large transformers integral to our entire power grid that take 10+ months to build and supply, and the long wires heating to the point of ignition all over the country? If the grid melts and panic hits we're talking massive nationwide riots, looting, etc... I've got 30 days of earthquake supplies, but I don't know how I'd get insulin. But there's not a damned thing you can get with a firearm that's not a short term solution. Even ammo depends on a supply chain. I mean, sure, when a violent response is an option, typically it's the only option. Time to learn how to fletch I guess.

By: stavrosthewonderchicken

stavrosthewonderchicken — Wed, 07 Jan 2009 18:50:11 -0800

Kaboom! Earth dies.

By: Marisa Stole the Precious Thing

Marisa Stole the Precious Thing — Wed, 07 Jan 2009 21:10:09 -0800

What about the large transformers integral to our entire power grid that take 10+ months to build and supply, and the long wires heating to the point of ignition all over the country? If the grid melts and panic hits we're talking massive nationwide riots, looting, etc... Now that you mention it, taking a look at the study, these are the conclusions they reach:

In synthesizing the ideas and discussion offered in this session and in the entire workshop, audience members offered several perspectives and suggestions about current needs: -Improved physical understanding of solar processes to enable forcasting -Effective means of transitioning from models to operations -The addition of space weather coverage on The Weather Channel -The codification of risk assessment standards for space weather events, including space weather analogs to 100-year risks -Analysis of cascading effects on complex, coupled systems -The articulation of scenarios that illustrate the effects of space weather, as a means to educate the public and policy committee about the importance of space weather In a spirit of optimism, the conference adjourned.

I, personally, would love to see some space weather on the Weather Channel.

By: sneebler

sneebler — Wed, 07 Jan 2009 21:38:37 -0800

Invest in companies that make panic related products? Nabisco? The History Channel? Depends.

By: Tom Blees

Tom Blees — Wed, 07 Jan 2009 23:56:36 -0800

A class ten solar flare can happen anytime, even in periods of relative solar quietude. If it happened to be pointed at the earth, when it hit it would knock out pretty much all the transformers on the grid, basically a giant EMP. If, for instance, the USA happened to bear the brunt of it, it might take as many as 5 years to get all the transformers replaced. It would be a very serious event. Fortunately the odds of this happening are small, yet it would be very sensible to take a simple precaution: Put shutoff switches and grounding lines on the upstream side of all our transformers, with a big red button at every power plant that could isolate all the transformers in the event of such a flare. Our solar observatories would be able to provide us with about a 2-hour warning (the pulse doesn't travel at the speed of light), so we could essentially go dark and let it pass, then start up again. The hitch? In order to start up the turbines from a cold start they have to be spun up first, and only about 10% of our power plants have diesel or gas engines set up to do that. All the others rely on electricity from the grid to spin them up. So it could take quite a while to get back online again. The logical time to install these kill switches and grounding wires would be when we rewire the grid with the new type of transmission lines called Aluminum Conductor Composite Reinforced (ACCR) lines. They can carry 2-4 times the current of today's lines, which will allow us to convert to an all-electric society without having to establish new rights of way and transmission towers. At that time we could also install backup engines to spin up the turbines from a dark start at about half our power plants, making the whole system safe from this type of rare but quite possible solar risk, and quite capable of restarting pretty quickly after it passes. So you can put your guns away.

By: rusty

rusty — Thu, 08 Jan 2009 07:52:16 -0800

So... 90% of our electrical generating capacity requires electricity to start? That right there is engineering at its finest.

By: DU

DU — Thu, 08 Jan 2009 09:43:28 -0800

Why do the turbines need to be "spun up" at all? Doesn't the water falling out of a dam (say) do that? Or are they designed to take that force only when running at speed? Anyway, I'm not an expert but doesn't an EMP kill even some electrical equipment that's turned off? The M part of the pulse generates huge Es and burns them out. Transformers already handle big loads so maybe that's not a big deal....except I'm sure they also have sensitive electronics controlling them. Upshot: It's not clear to me that going dark is any protection against EMPs. Faraday caging them should work, though.

By: Kadin2048

Kadin2048 — Thu, 08 Jan 2009 11:04:02 -0800

Generators work by moving coils of wire in magnetic fields. However, most big generators do not contain permanent magnets, like small motors do -- they would be prohibitively expensive and hard to make, and they wouldn't produce strong enough fields. Instead, they have static coils which perform the same function as the magnets in a small generator or motor. These coils need to be energized, obviously, and to do this they need a power source. Normally, a small amount of the power produced by the generator is fed back into it for this purpose. But during a "cold start," there's an obvious bootstrapping problem. This is where you start to require separate generators; it's not an issue of physically moving the generator components: you can do that pretty easily, but without an electrical source, you just have coils of wire spinning around other coils of wire -- that won't get you any juice.

By: DU

DU — Thu, 08 Jan 2009 12:13:34 -0800

Yeah, but a little gas generator that....well, I guess that's what Tom Blees was saying. They don't have those. That's kinda dumb.

By: quin

quin — Thu, 08 Jan 2009 12:28:13 -0800

BrotherCaine : Time to learn how to fletch I guess. I know exactly what this means, and yet, as I look at it, I keep reading it wrong, and all I can think is "Damn, that's a kinky approach to apocalypse survival."

By: BrotherCaine

BrotherCaine — Fri, 09 Jan 2009 22:08:58 -0800

Are you thinking felch?