Flight 3407 Crash Preventable?

February 15, 2009 7:27 PM

"The FAA has looked into the recommendations [which might have prevented the crash of Flight 3407], but not adopted them. Canada's government adopted the suggested changes in 1999."Learn more about what was known about icing in this 23 minute NASA video, which specifically addresses horizontal stabilizer icing. "Flight crews may not have any aerodynamic clues that ice may be building up on the tailplane until the aircraft configuration is changed. The effects of ice contamination on the horizontal stabilizer are typically noticed during an approach, after flaps are extended and when the aircraft is close to the ground." The video ends with this chilling admonition for pilots: "Remember, in almost all tailplane icing accidents, the cockpit hits the ground first."
posted by Doohickie (16 comments total)

That's reassuring, since all of the planes that Porter Airlines (a Canadian airline based out of Toronto) uses are the same model as the one involved in this latest crash.
posted by krunk at 7:43 PM on February 15

"the cockpit hits the ground first"

as if it matters which end of the banana goes in the blender first
posted by Confess, Fletch at 7:48 PM on February 15 [3 favorites]

The NTSB issued a safety alert in December (2 page PDF) promoting early use of boots, and noting at "ice bridging" (once believed to arise from using boots "too early") was a myth. In November 2008 the FAA issued a notice with similar advice (4 page PDF) -- although this was directed to small general aviation aircraft, it's hard to imagine that commercial operators would remain ignorant of the findings WRT using deicing boots early and often.

That NASA video is pretty informative -- as I'd mentioned, it's pretty creepy how closely it matches the circumstances of the crash.
posted by exogenous at 7:51 PM on February 15

"the cockpit hits the ground first"

I'm not a pilot, but I think I recognise gallows humor.
posted by RobotVoodooPower at 7:52 PM on February 15

"the cockpit hits the ground first"

Good news! Less work to do if there are survivors...
posted by barc0001 at 8:01 PM on February 15

While I promoted the horizontal stabilizer icing theory in the first thread, it sounds like the initial data from the crash is not supporting it. This article in the NY Times indicates that the first indication of a problem was a nose excursion upward. It looks like I get what I deserve for speculating before, and this time I'm going to wait for more data on what happened.
posted by meinvt at 8:01 PM on February 15

Uh, I'm a total layman but I believe Continental 3407 crashed almost level, so does the "cockpit first" thing still hold up then? This I gather from news reports, at least.
posted by goodnewsfortheinsane at 8:03 PM on February 15

What meinvt said.
posted by goodnewsfortheinsane at 8:05 PM on February 15

Plane in N.Y. Crash Was on Autopilot -- "Plane was on autopilot in icy conditions, a possible violation of airline policy."
posted by ericb at 8:20 PM on February 15

Uh-oh... he'll get a stern talking-to for that...
posted by Doohickie at 8:50 PM on February 15 [1 favorite]

The video ends with this chilling admonition for pilots: "Remember, in almost all tailplane icing accidents, the cockpit hits the ground first."

I too read it as gallows humour.

This for some reason puts me in mind of something from Bill Bryson's African Diary:

The plane, I'm pleased to say, was quite new and looked sound, and the pilot, a man of great calmness named Nino, was unquestionably sober and reliable-looking. Under questioning, he pointed out that he wanted to crash even less than we did, since he would have to pay for the plane.
posted by ricochet biscuit at 9:47 PM on February 15

Double. There is an existing thread on this crash, including discussion of the NASA video, and the autopilot evidence, etc.
posted by weapons-grade pandemonium at 10:33 PM on February 15

Or like Roly Falk taking the Vulcan up for its first demonstration flights and rolling the 200,000 lbs, 100 ft wingspan monster while properly attired in tweed suit and tie.
posted by uncanny hengeman at 12:27 AM on February 16

That NYTimes article above also says:

Steven Chealander, the member of the safety board assigned to the investigation, also said that the crew had turned on the plane’s sophisticated de-icing system shortly after leaving Newark, long before the crash. Such systems can sometimes be ineffective if they are turned on too late, but that does not appear to have been the case here.

So it sounds like the recommendation was already followed.
posted by smackfu at 5:39 AM on February 16

...but I believe Continental 3407 crashed almost level...

Via CNN:

"...plane's nose pitched up 31 degrees, then down 45 degrees. The aircraft rolled left 46 degrees then right 105 degrees, or past the 90-degree vertical point."

I'd say that the plane did not crash almost level. It almost sounds like the autopilot or the pilot was fighting for control over the aircraft and something went wrong, most likey icing over some critical control surface.
posted by rand at 7:04 AM on February 16

Icing over the wings, causing an increase in angle of attack, which then goes into a stall, resulting in the nose-down, then post-stall gyrations exacerbated by ineffective control surfaces - all from the icing.
posted by squorch at 7:13 AM on February 16