Madagascar's Ports Still Open, Though
June 11, 2009 10:22 AM Subscribe
WHO declares global flu pandemic. "The world is moving into the early days of its first influenza pandemic in the 21st century," [WHO Chief Margaret ]Chan told reporters. "The (swine flu) virus is now unstoppable."
"The agency has stressed that most cases are mild and require no treatment, but the fear is that a rash of new infections could overwhelm hospitals and health authorities — especially in poorer countries."
"The agency has stressed that most cases are mild and require no treatment, but the fear is that a rash of new infections could overwhelm hospitals and health authorities — especially in poorer countries."
WHO declares global flu pandemic.
The World Health Organization does. Yeesh, can't be bothered to read your own article?
I make this bad pun every time I hear something about WHO. Which, lately, is daily. I'm so funny!
posted by gurple at 10:27 AM on June 11, 2009 [15 favorites]
The World Health Organization does. Yeesh, can't be bothered to read your own article?
I make this bad pun every time I hear something about WHO. Which, lately, is daily. I'm so funny!
posted by gurple at 10:27 AM on June 11, 2009 [15 favorites]
At least link to Chan's statement.
More info from the CDC.
posted by CunningLinguist at 10:31 AM on June 11, 2009 [1 favorite]
More info from the CDC.
posted by CunningLinguist at 10:31 AM on June 11, 2009 [1 favorite]
most cases are mild and require no treatment, but the fear is that a rash of new infections could overwhelm hospitals and health authorities
If the cases are mild, then the only way hospitals are going to be overwhelmed is if some alarmist media sources get people all worked up and heading to the hospital for every little cough. Fortunately that's very unlikely.
posted by DU at 10:32 AM on June 11, 2009 [6 favorites]
If the cases are mild, then the only way hospitals are going to be overwhelmed is if some alarmist media sources get people all worked up and heading to the hospital for every little cough. Fortunately that's very unlikely.
posted by DU at 10:32 AM on June 11, 2009 [6 favorites]
Sadly, I'm all panicked out by the previous swine flu pandemic to be interested. Wake me up when the aporkalypse is over.
posted by Sova at 10:32 AM on June 11, 2009 [5 favorites]
posted by Sova at 10:32 AM on June 11, 2009 [5 favorites]
If the cases are mild, then the only way hospitals are going to be overwhelmed is if some alarmist media sources...
Not quite true. At the height of the scare around here a month or so ago, I went to the doc, and he said they were really bogged down because of swine flu. False alarms, I asked? No, but they had to be extra careful with everyone who came in, just in case.
Also, facilities with immunosuppressed patients (like Seattle Cancer Care Alliance) have to be on their highest alert (daily no-symptom certifications for everyone, employees go home if the cough once), which is a lot less efficient than their normal operating procedures.
posted by gurple at 10:35 AM on June 11, 2009
Not quite true. At the height of the scare around here a month or so ago, I went to the doc, and he said they were really bogged down because of swine flu. False alarms, I asked? No, but they had to be extra careful with everyone who came in, just in case.
Also, facilities with immunosuppressed patients (like Seattle Cancer Care Alliance) have to be on their highest alert (daily no-symptom certifications for everyone, employees go home if the cough once), which is a lot less efficient than their normal operating procedures.
posted by gurple at 10:35 AM on June 11, 2009
I glanced over this headline when reading the news this morning and basically ignored it without reading the article. There was so much red flag raising by the news agencies a month or so ago that any new article about swine flu is like "The Boy Who Cried Wolf" to me....
posted by JibberJabber at 10:35 AM on June 11, 2009 [1 favorite]
posted by JibberJabber at 10:35 AM on June 11, 2009 [1 favorite]
I'm imagining this like that scene in Pinocchio where they all turn into donkeys. The infected can be identified by noses turning into snouts and little curly tails poking out of pants.
I feel like there was a movie or TV show that played off of that, but I can't recall it right now.
posted by backseatpilot at 10:36 AM on June 11, 2009
I feel like there was a movie or TV show that played off of that, but I can't recall it right now.
posted by backseatpilot at 10:36 AM on June 11, 2009
I feel like there was a movie or TV show that played off of that, but I can't recall it right now.
Queen Bavmorda: You dare to challenge me? You're not warriors! You're PIGS! [all the soldiers begin to turn into pigs]
posted by gurple at 10:38 AM on June 11, 2009 [2 favorites]
Queen Bavmorda: You dare to challenge me? You're not warriors! You're PIGS! [all the soldiers begin to turn into pigs]
posted by gurple at 10:38 AM on June 11, 2009 [2 favorites]
"If the cases are mild, then the only way hospitals are going to be overwhelmed is if some alarmist media sources get people all worked up and heading to the hospital for every little cough."
Most cases are mild. Most is kinda of a dodgy metric but if even 1% of cases are life threatening then even a fairly low infection rate can result in all sorts of traffic to hospitals.
posted by Mitheral at 10:40 AM on June 11, 2009
Most cases are mild. Most is kinda of a dodgy metric but if even 1% of cases are life threatening then even a fairly low infection rate can result in all sorts of traffic to hospitals.
posted by Mitheral at 10:40 AM on June 11, 2009
WHO declares global flu pandemic.
YEEEAAAAHHHHHH
posted by total warfare frown at 10:42 AM on June 11, 2009 [11 favorites]
YEEEAAAAHHHHHH
posted by total warfare frown at 10:42 AM on June 11, 2009 [11 favorites]
I had a great idea for an invention last night. The details don't matter, but if even 1% of humans on Earth buy it, I'm going to be a billionaire!
posted by DU at 10:42 AM on June 11, 2009
posted by DU at 10:42 AM on June 11, 2009
Unless the strain becomes deadly, there's really no concern. The virus is quite good thus far at keeping things alive long enough to transmit it.
posted by scrutiny at 10:43 AM on June 11, 2009
posted by scrutiny at 10:43 AM on June 11, 2009
In case you didn't catch the tagline reference, you might want to give Pandemic 2 a whirl.
posted by sophist at 10:43 AM on June 11, 2009
posted by sophist at 10:43 AM on June 11, 2009
The cooperative boardgame Pandemic is also quite a lot of fun, right about now.
posted by gurple at 10:45 AM on June 11, 2009 [2 favorites]
posted by gurple at 10:45 AM on June 11, 2009 [2 favorites]
Whoa, ~35k cases of which ~300 have been fatal. That actually is pretty close to 1% fatality, with "life threatening" obviously being much higher. My bad on the reverse alarmism.
posted by DU at 10:49 AM on June 11, 2009 [1 favorite]
posted by DU at 10:49 AM on June 11, 2009 [1 favorite]
empath gets props for the thread title. I spent weeks trying to get that damn President Madagascar Assassin badge on Kongregate.
posted by Faint of Butt at 10:53 AM on June 11, 2009
posted by Faint of Butt at 10:53 AM on June 11, 2009
I have constructed a swine flu test that is 99.9% accurate and can be administered over the internet.
Are you ready?
You don't have swine flu.
posted by christonabike at 10:54 AM on June 11, 2009 [25 favorites]
Are you ready?
You don't have swine flu.
posted by christonabike at 10:54 AM on June 11, 2009 [25 favorites]
How dare the WHO declare something a pandemic without massive fatalities and blood running in the streets of at least ten major cities! Now the American Insurance Companies can't reject every claim for H1N1 treatment! A pandemic without panic would mean... somebody's handling the situation, and we don't ever DARE suggest the WHO is doing that!
posted by wendell at 10:56 AM on June 11, 2009 [2 favorites]
posted by wendell at 10:56 AM on June 11, 2009 [2 favorites]
Yep, still not worried.
Also pork is damn cheap at the moment.
posted by sararah at 10:56 AM on June 11, 2009
Also pork is damn cheap at the moment.
posted by sararah at 10:56 AM on June 11, 2009
From Chan's statement:
No previous pandemic has been detected so early or watched so closely, in real-time, right at the very beginning. The world can now reap the benefits of investments, over the last five years, in pandemic preparedness.She underscores as well that of course things are going to be a lot worse in developing countries, saying in part, "it is prudent to anticipate a bleaker picture as the virus spreads to areas with limited resources, poor health care, and a high prevalence of underlying medical problems." However:
We have a head start. This places us in a strong position. But it also creates a demand for advice and reassurance in the midst of limited data and considerable scientific uncertainty.
Thanks to close monitoring, thorough investigations, and frank reporting from countries, we have some early snapshots depicting spread of the virus and the range of illness it can cause.
Worldwide, the number of deaths is small. Each and every one of these deaths is tragic, and we have to brace ourselves to see more. However, we do not expect to see a sudden and dramatic jump in the number of severe or fatal infections.posted by Marisa Stole the Precious Thing at 10:58 AM on June 11, 2009 [2 favorites]
WHO has been in close dialogue with influenza vaccine manufacturers. I understand that production of vaccines for seasonal influenza will be completed soon, and that full capacity will be available to ensure the largest possible supply of pandemic vaccine in the months to come.
DU, where did you get 35k cases with 300 deaths? I believe (at least, according to this article) that it's at 28,744 cases with 144 deaths, bringing the death rate to a whopping 0.005%. Less than that of seasonal flu. 1918's H1N1 was around 2.5%.
posted by SixteenTons at 11:06 AM on June 11, 2009
posted by SixteenTons at 11:06 AM on June 11, 2009
Having just been sick for a week, I don't know if I'd call the symptoms mild. They may not be extreme but they sure are persistent.
posted by doctor_negative at 11:08 AM on June 11, 2009
posted by doctor_negative at 11:08 AM on June 11, 2009
I don't have any figures, but SixteenTons should recheck his math. Those numbers give a fatality rate of 0.5%
posted by Salvor Hardin at 11:10 AM on June 11, 2009
posted by Salvor Hardin at 11:10 AM on June 11, 2009
I got the numbers from the excellent map link and yeah, check your math.
posted by DU at 11:12 AM on June 11, 2009
posted by DU at 11:12 AM on June 11, 2009
Check UR math OnePointSixTons....isn't that .5% mortality rate?
posted by HyperBlue at 11:13 AM on June 11, 2009 [5 favorites]
posted by HyperBlue at 11:13 AM on June 11, 2009 [5 favorites]
I had this last week. It wasn't the worst flu I've ever had by a long shot. But the symptoms come on fast, and it's a real energy zapper. I was sick for four days, and then very fatigued for two more. And my sinuses are only just now fully recovered.
The worst flu I had was when I was 24. I was sick for two solid weeks, with a fever ranging from 101 to 103.5 degrees. I thought I was going to die. Doctor (I went twice) just said I had to ride it out. That's what I was expecting from H1N1.
posted by kimdog at 11:16 AM on June 11, 2009
The worst flu I had was when I was 24. I was sick for two solid weeks, with a fever ranging from 101 to 103.5 degrees. I thought I was going to die. Doctor (I went twice) just said I had to ride it out. That's what I was expecting from H1N1.
posted by kimdog at 11:16 AM on June 11, 2009
How dare the WHO declare something a pandemic without massive fatalities and blood running in the streets of at least ten major cities! Now the American Insurance Companies can't reject every claim for H1N1 treatment! A pandemic without panic would mean... somebody's handling the situation, and we don't ever DARE suggest the WHO is doing that!
Exactly. The WHO are abusing their power by creating headlines without supporting fotos of dead bodies or dying children. This is pure irresponsibility on their part. Thankfully, I expect the news outlets will deal sensibly with the matter, and not give in to the WHO's thoughtless, shallow, and sensationalizing "pronouncements" on this issue.
posted by Sova at 11:17 AM on June 11, 2009
Exactly. The WHO are abusing their power by creating headlines without supporting fotos of dead bodies or dying children. This is pure irresponsibility on their part. Thankfully, I expect the news outlets will deal sensibly with the matter, and not give in to the WHO's thoughtless, shallow, and sensationalizing "pronouncements" on this issue.
posted by Sova at 11:17 AM on June 11, 2009
According to the New York City department of health, they estimate as many as 550,000 overall (NY Times.
In other words, since it's often mild, it's probably very underreported.
posted by malphigian at 11:18 AM on June 11, 2009
In other words, since it's often mild, it's probably very underreported.
posted by malphigian at 11:18 AM on June 11, 2009
0.5% of Earth's 6,783,421,727 populace = approximately 34 million dead.
posted by HyperBlue at 11:22 AM on June 11, 2009 [2 favorites]
posted by HyperBlue at 11:22 AM on June 11, 2009 [2 favorites]
So, to repeat myself... good on public health officials for keeping on top of this, but everybody else can go back to bed.
In other words, since it's often mild, it's probably very underreported.
But they don't measure non-H1N1 flu cases, so who (WHO?) is to say if this is even a big deal relative to that?
Having just been sick for a week, I don't know if I'd call the symptoms mild. They may not be extreme but they sure are persistent.
Pneumonia, norwalk-like viruses, etc. Getting sick sucks. Getting sick with a named sickness is about the same.
Also, same old transmission vectors as regular flu: WASH YOUR HANDS.
posted by GuyZero at 11:26 AM on June 11, 2009 [1 favorite]
In other words, since it's often mild, it's probably very underreported.
But they don't measure non-H1N1 flu cases, so who (WHO?) is to say if this is even a big deal relative to that?
Having just been sick for a week, I don't know if I'd call the symptoms mild. They may not be extreme but they sure are persistent.
Pneumonia, norwalk-like viruses, etc. Getting sick sucks. Getting sick with a named sickness is about the same.
Also, same old transmission vectors as regular flu: WASH YOUR HANDS.
posted by GuyZero at 11:26 AM on June 11, 2009 [1 favorite]
0.5% of Earth's 6,783,421,727 populace = approximately 34 million dead.
Holy crap, man. Wow. And 0.5% of TEN TIMES the Earth's populace: 350 million dead! Wow, that's, like, the entire population of the US right now! WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE!
posted by gurple at 11:28 AM on June 11, 2009
Holy crap, man. Wow. And 0.5% of TEN TIMES the Earth's populace: 350 million dead! Wow, that's, like, the entire population of the US right now! WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE!
posted by gurple at 11:28 AM on June 11, 2009
Having just read The Great Influenza, I may be slightly more freaked out by this version of H1N1 than I was a few weeks back. However, as 1918 showed, a spring outbreak followed by a relatively quiet summer can mean that this autumn is when the shit really goes down.
posted by Paid In Full at 11:29 AM on June 11, 2009 [4 favorites]
posted by Paid In Full at 11:29 AM on June 11, 2009 [4 favorites]
that it's at 28,744 cases with 144 deaths, bringing the death rate to a whopping 0.005%. Less than that of seasonal flu. 1918's H1N1 was around 2.5%.
MATHFAIL.
posted by delmoi at 11:33 AM on June 11, 2009
MATHFAIL.
posted by delmoi at 11:33 AM on June 11, 2009
Given the extent of world travel in these modern times, aren't all flu outbreaks bound to become pandemics? In fact, our annual flu vaccines are developed mainly from a survey of the most prominent strains being exchanged in various countries throughout the world. Unless Mexico quarantined every spring breaker with a cough back in March, wasn't the swine flu pandemic inevitable, expected and thus, sneh?
posted by adamms222 at 11:34 AM on June 11, 2009
posted by adamms222 at 11:34 AM on June 11, 2009
Why is no one up in arms about plain ol' seasonal influenza?
From WHO's own website:
Seasonal epidemics:
Influenza epidemics occur yearly during autumn and winter in temperate regions. Illnesses result in hospitalizations and deaths mainly among high-risk groups (the very young, elderly or chronically ill). Worldwide, these annual epidemics result in about three to five million cases of severe illness, and about 250 000 to 500 000 deaths. Most deaths associated with influenza in industrialized countries occur among people age 65 or older. In some tropical countries, influenza viruses circulate throughout the year with one or two peaks during rainy seasons. (Emphasis mine)
That means a fatality rate of as high as 10%!
posted by Kabanos at 11:37 AM on June 11, 2009 [1 favorite]
From WHO's own website:
Seasonal epidemics:
Influenza epidemics occur yearly during autumn and winter in temperate regions. Illnesses result in hospitalizations and deaths mainly among high-risk groups (the very young, elderly or chronically ill). Worldwide, these annual epidemics result in about three to five million cases of severe illness, and about 250 000 to 500 000 deaths. Most deaths associated with influenza in industrialized countries occur among people age 65 or older. In some tropical countries, influenza viruses circulate throughout the year with one or two peaks during rainy seasons. (Emphasis mine)
That means a fatality rate of as high as 10%!
posted by Kabanos at 11:37 AM on June 11, 2009 [1 favorite]
Why is no one up in arms about plain ol' seasonal influenza?
Exactly.
posted by GuyZero at 11:41 AM on June 11, 2009
Exactly.
posted by GuyZero at 11:41 AM on June 11, 2009
Severe Illness = people who had it bad enough to get treatment. Lots of people get the flu and never get treated for it.
posted by empath at 11:41 AM on June 11, 2009
posted by empath at 11:41 AM on June 11, 2009
That means a fatality rate of as high as 10%!
What is this, Bad Math Day? It means a fatality rate of as high as 10% of the number of cases of severe illness.
posted by gurple at 11:42 AM on June 11, 2009
What is this, Bad Math Day? It means a fatality rate of as high as 10% of the number of cases of severe illness.
posted by gurple at 11:42 AM on June 11, 2009
If the cases are mild, then the only way hospitals are going to be overwhelmed is if some alarmist media sources get people all worked up and heading to the hospital for every little cough
Or if they live in crowded and generally shitty conditions.
posted by Alvy Ampersand at 11:49 AM on June 11, 2009
Or if they live in crowded and generally shitty conditions.
posted by Alvy Ampersand at 11:49 AM on June 11, 2009
I bet this flu is going to decimate 3rd world populations. First world countries and pharmaceutical companies will be complicit. H1N1 is going to be a be tragedy but probably not to anyone I will know. I don't know how to feel about that.
posted by fuq at 12:02 PM on June 11, 2009 [1 favorite]
posted by fuq at 12:02 PM on June 11, 2009 [1 favorite]
There was so much red flag raising by the news agencies a month or so ago that any new article about swine flu is like "The Boy Who Cried Wolf" to me....
Try living in Queens, NY with a couple of toddlers who have been sick with flu-like symptoms off and on for more than three months. Many of the schools in our immediate area were closed last month, and St. Francis Prep is about 3 miles away. The kids who go to those schools work in businesses in the area, and I no doubt commute to the city on a train with many of their parents.
I realize that the situation isn't awful, and that there's no need to panic. But some of us can't simply dismiss/ignore reports like this.
However, I'm sincerely glad that you have the luxury to do so.
posted by zarq at 12:13 PM on June 11, 2009 [1 favorite]
Try living in Queens, NY with a couple of toddlers who have been sick with flu-like symptoms off and on for more than three months. Many of the schools in our immediate area were closed last month, and St. Francis Prep is about 3 miles away. The kids who go to those schools work in businesses in the area, and I no doubt commute to the city on a train with many of their parents.
I realize that the situation isn't awful, and that there's no need to panic. But some of us can't simply dismiss/ignore reports like this.
However, I'm sincerely glad that you have the luxury to do so.
posted by zarq at 12:13 PM on June 11, 2009 [1 favorite]
Exactly. The WHO are abusing their power by creating headlines without supporting fotos of dead bodies or dying children.
Plus stock photos of pigs.
posted by delmoi at 12:15 PM on June 11, 2009
Plus stock photos of pigs.
posted by delmoi at 12:15 PM on June 11, 2009
Wait wait wait... that's 0.5% fatalities, not 0.5% survivors? Man, Randall Flagg's gonna be pissed.
posted by Halloween Jack at 12:24 PM on June 11, 2009
posted by Halloween Jack at 12:24 PM on June 11, 2009
Hah, I note that Madagascar, true to form, doesn't have a single confirmed case.
posted by Happy Dave at 12:31 PM on June 11, 2009
posted by Happy Dave at 12:31 PM on June 11, 2009
Why is no one up in arms about plain ol' seasonal influenza?
Because many people have some kind of immunity to regular, ol' flu from vaccines or acquired immunity to other viruses.
However NO ONE* has immunity to swine flu. It's new, and we haven't had time to adapt. It will be back in the fall and winter. This recent WHO report just states the fact that it is now global. Its fatality rates are low, but consider the possibility of wide spread transmission, due to lack of immunity, and you come up with a big number of cases, and deaths.
Neither screaming that it's not a big deal, or screaming that it's going to end the world are particularly helpful.
*ok fine, maybe some people have natural immunity to it, or those that have recovered from it are immune, but not many people total.
posted by fontophilic at 12:40 PM on June 11, 2009 [1 favorite]
Because many people have some kind of immunity to regular, ol' flu from vaccines or acquired immunity to other viruses.
However NO ONE* has immunity to swine flu. It's new, and we haven't had time to adapt. It will be back in the fall and winter. This recent WHO report just states the fact that it is now global. Its fatality rates are low, but consider the possibility of wide spread transmission, due to lack of immunity, and you come up with a big number of cases, and deaths.
Neither screaming that it's not a big deal, or screaming that it's going to end the world are particularly helpful.
*ok fine, maybe some people have natural immunity to it, or those that have recovered from it are immune, but not many people total.
posted by fontophilic at 12:40 PM on June 11, 2009 [1 favorite]
WHO declares global flu pandemic
...plus, they wrote a new song: "We Won't Get Flu'd Again."
posted by ZenMasterThis at 12:56 PM on June 11, 2009 [1 favorite]
...plus, they wrote a new song: "We Won't Get Flu'd Again."
posted by ZenMasterThis at 12:56 PM on June 11, 2009 [1 favorite]
Why is no one up in arms about plain ol' seasonal influenza?
Also, we don't know what will eventually happen with this strain yet. The seasonal virus isn't likely to evolve into something especially deadly. There is a greater possibility that H1N1 may. As Paid in Full pointed out, the 1918 virus started out mild as well.
posted by Hubajube at 1:00 PM on June 11, 2009
Also, we don't know what will eventually happen with this strain yet. The seasonal virus isn't likely to evolve into something especially deadly. There is a greater possibility that H1N1 may. As Paid in Full pointed out, the 1918 virus started out mild as well.
posted by Hubajube at 1:00 PM on June 11, 2009
It's new, and we haven't had time to adapt.
So the delay in developing a vaccine is pretty serious, but is there any reason to believe that the next round of flu vaccines in the fall won't cover H1N1 as well as they handle other strains? I mean, the situation you describe simply won't be true in six months for people who regularly receives flu vaccines, i.e. anyone in North America or Western Europe.
posted by GuyZero at 1:02 PM on June 11, 2009
So the delay in developing a vaccine is pretty serious, but is there any reason to believe that the next round of flu vaccines in the fall won't cover H1N1 as well as they handle other strains? I mean, the situation you describe simply won't be true in six months for people who regularly receives flu vaccines, i.e. anyone in North America or Western Europe.
posted by GuyZero at 1:02 PM on June 11, 2009
I bet this flu is going to decimate 3rd world populations.
"we do not expect to see a sudden and dramatic jump in the number of severe or fatal infections."
First world countries and pharmaceutical companies will be complicit.
"WHO has been in close dialogue with influenza vaccine manufacturers."
So the delay in developing a vaccine is pretty serious, but is there any reason to believe that the next round of flu vaccines in the fall won't cover H1N1 as well as they handle other strains?
"I understand that production of vaccines for seasonal influenza will be completed soon, and that full capacity will be available to ensure the largest possible supply of pandemic vaccine in the months to come."
All from the WHO's actual statement on the H1N1 pandemic.
posted by Marisa Stole the Precious Thing at 1:13 PM on June 11, 2009 [1 favorite]
"we do not expect to see a sudden and dramatic jump in the number of severe or fatal infections."
First world countries and pharmaceutical companies will be complicit.
"WHO has been in close dialogue with influenza vaccine manufacturers."
So the delay in developing a vaccine is pretty serious, but is there any reason to believe that the next round of flu vaccines in the fall won't cover H1N1 as well as they handle other strains?
"I understand that production of vaccines for seasonal influenza will be completed soon, and that full capacity will be available to ensure the largest possible supply of pandemic vaccine in the months to come."
All from the WHO's actual statement on the H1N1 pandemic.
posted by Marisa Stole the Precious Thing at 1:13 PM on June 11, 2009 [1 favorite]
For the thousandth time, THIS IS NOT SWINE FLU. This is an H1N1 which contains elements of avian, swine, and human flu viruses. It might have mutated in a pig farm, but we don't have a lot of evidence whether it did or not. Eating pig won't give you the flu, and again, its origin is only partially from pigs.
posted by dw at 1:14 PM on June 11, 2009
posted by dw at 1:14 PM on June 11, 2009
Swine flu is spelled "swineflue" in the tags. I picture a chimney stuffed with pigs. And then I think of smoked bacon. Then I feel bad because pigs are smart and cute. Then I click post and close the Metafilter window, feeling slightly conflicted. Not just about my slightly twisted humanity, but my use of the present tense to describe something I'm about to do, but reflecting upon it as if its something I've already done.
posted by iamkimiam at 1:17 PM on June 11, 2009 [6 favorites]
posted by iamkimiam at 1:17 PM on June 11, 2009 [6 favorites]
However, as 1918 showed, a spring outbreak followed by a relatively quiet summer can mean that this autumn is when the shit really goes down.
But, as has been pointed out above, this time we might have a vaccine by that point.
Of course, the traditional breed-the-virus-inside-an-egg method typically requires four to six months to produce the first batches of vaccine. If H1N1 development was closer to six, then we'd be just a little too late to get out in front of the flu season.
Fortunately, Baxter's been working on a Vero cell-based technique that cuts down the development to a little more than three months:
posted by Iridic at 1:21 PM on June 11, 2009
But, as has been pointed out above, this time we might have a vaccine by that point.
Of course, the traditional breed-the-virus-inside-an-egg method typically requires four to six months to produce the first batches of vaccine. If H1N1 development was closer to six, then we'd be just a little too late to get out in front of the flu season.
Fortunately, Baxter's been working on a Vero cell-based technique that cuts down the development to a little more than three months:
In total, vaccines using the process could be released within approximately 12 weeks, significantly earlier than with traditional egg-based systems. In addition, all influenza strains with pandemic potential tested for growth in vero cells have produced reproducibly high yields, enabling Baxter to flexibly respond to the emerging variant pandemic virus strains. (Source: a 2007 press release.)All indications are that Baxter has perfected the process and is using it to quietly develop a vaccine. It may well be that we won't need it, but we'll have at least a few million doses by the end of the summer, just in case.
posted by Iridic at 1:21 PM on June 11, 2009
All from the WHO's actual statement on the H1N1 pandemic.
The WHO is totally confusing me. They keep making really rational, reasonable statements about how not-bad/bad things are but then they say "BTW, PANDEMIC!" I think there may be some sort of gap between what epidemiologists consider a pandemic and the lay interpretation of the word. It's as if doctors started referring to headaches as "terminal brain cancer".
posted by GuyZero at 1:21 PM on June 11, 2009
The WHO is totally confusing me. They keep making really rational, reasonable statements about how not-bad/bad things are but then they say "BTW, PANDEMIC!" I think there may be some sort of gap between what epidemiologists consider a pandemic and the lay interpretation of the word. It's as if doctors started referring to headaches as "terminal brain cancer".
posted by GuyZero at 1:21 PM on June 11, 2009
I think there may be some sort of gap between what epidemiologists consider a pandemic and the lay interpretation of the word.
I think you're right. I believe "pandemic" just means it's an illness that will inevitably spread throughout the world, and does not necessarily involve wiping out million of people.
posted by Marisa Stole the Precious Thing at 1:26 PM on June 11, 2009
I think you're right. I believe "pandemic" just means it's an illness that will inevitably spread throughout the world, and does not necessarily involve wiping out million of people.
posted by Marisa Stole the Precious Thing at 1:26 PM on June 11, 2009
I bet this flu is going to decimate 3rd world populations.
"we do not expect to see a sudden and dramatic jump in the number of severe or fatal infections."
Insect-borne and water-borne diseases like malaria and cholera remain much more dangerous for most of Africa if that's what you mean by the third world. And sexually-transmitted diseases like AIDS. The flu, even H1N1, is really the least of their worries.
Everybody realizes there are a lot of other diseases out there, right? Right?
posted by GuyZero at 1:26 PM on June 11, 2009
"we do not expect to see a sudden and dramatic jump in the number of severe or fatal infections."
Insect-borne and water-borne diseases like malaria and cholera remain much more dangerous for most of Africa if that's what you mean by the third world. And sexually-transmitted diseases like AIDS. The flu, even H1N1, is really the least of their worries.
Everybody realizes there are a lot of other diseases out there, right? Right?
posted by GuyZero at 1:26 PM on June 11, 2009
Either way, I'm stocking up in Sprite, Dayquil and Campbell's Chicken Soup.
posted by qvantamon at 1:35 PM on June 11, 2009
posted by qvantamon at 1:35 PM on June 11, 2009
OMG doctor_negative has swine flu! He'll infect MeFi and kill us all!
posted by homunculus at 1:44 PM on June 11, 2009 [1 favorite]
posted by homunculus at 1:44 PM on June 11, 2009 [1 favorite]
I've got a fever, and the only cure is . . . wait . . . there's no cure?
How to cure.
posted by Kabanos at 1:55 PM on June 11, 2009
How to cure.
posted by Kabanos at 1:55 PM on June 11, 2009
PANDEMIC
All pandemic means is that it's everywhere, it says absolutely nothing about it's severity in terms of fatilities, etc.
Pandemic = All People
Epidemic = Many People.
It basically means, chances are, you or someone you know is going to get swine flu, if you don't get vaccinated.
Speaking of which, where is the vaccine? They've had plenty of time.
posted by empath at 1:57 PM on June 11, 2009
All pandemic means is that it's everywhere, it says absolutely nothing about it's severity in terms of fatilities, etc.
Pandemic = All People
Epidemic = Many People.
It basically means, chances are, you or someone you know is going to get swine flu, if you don't get vaccinated.
Speaking of which, where is the vaccine? They've had plenty of time.
posted by empath at 1:57 PM on June 11, 2009
They've had plenty of time.
I Am Not A Vaccine Manufacturer, but somehow, I don't think they have. Aren't there issues about isolating the virus, finding an attenuated version safe to inject into people, and then you have to grow it in eggs for a while?
If the vaccine makers could turn their industry on a dime, there wouldn't be any need for them to guess months and months ahead of time about which strains of seasonal influenza might be the fashionable ones for the year. They could just wait and see, and then make 'em like mad.
I don't remember where, but I seem to have heard 3-6 month turnaround, minimum. And that's if you have a safe version of the bugs to breed in the first place.
posted by hippybear at 2:50 PM on June 11, 2009
I Am Not A Vaccine Manufacturer, but somehow, I don't think they have. Aren't there issues about isolating the virus, finding an attenuated version safe to inject into people, and then you have to grow it in eggs for a while?
If the vaccine makers could turn their industry on a dime, there wouldn't be any need for them to guess months and months ahead of time about which strains of seasonal influenza might be the fashionable ones for the year. They could just wait and see, and then make 'em like mad.
I don't remember where, but I seem to have heard 3-6 month turnaround, minimum. And that's if you have a safe version of the bugs to breed in the first place.
posted by hippybear at 2:50 PM on June 11, 2009
Over here our local News Limited newspapers are keeping a counter on most of their pages. The number of deaths is 0.
That's not stopping the bastards from saying stuff like Swine flu toll hits 1000.
It all reminds me of that little bit from The Simpsons episode Lisa on Ice.
Announcer: And now, here's your Action Anchor[tm], Kent Brockman.
Kent: [jumping in, panting] Hello, I'm Kent Brockman! Our top
stories tonight: a tremendous _explosion_ in the price of
lumber, President Reagan _dyes_...his hair, plus Garry
Trudeau and his new musical comedy revue. But first! Let's
check the death count from the killer storm bearing down on
us like a shotgun full of snow.
Weatherman: Well, Kent, as of now the death count is zero. But it _is_
ready to shoot right up.
Kent: Oh my God. [shakes fist at heaven] Damn you snow!
posted by Talez at 3:09 PM on June 11, 2009
That's not stopping the bastards from saying stuff like Swine flu toll hits 1000.
It all reminds me of that little bit from The Simpsons episode Lisa on Ice.
Announcer: And now, here's your Action Anchor[tm], Kent Brockman.
Kent: [jumping in, panting] Hello, I'm Kent Brockman! Our top
stories tonight: a tremendous _explosion_ in the price of
lumber, President Reagan _dyes_...his hair, plus Garry
Trudeau and his new musical comedy revue. But first! Let's
check the death count from the killer storm bearing down on
us like a shotgun full of snow.
Weatherman: Well, Kent, as of now the death count is zero. But it _is_
ready to shoot right up.
Kent: Oh my God. [shakes fist at heaven] Damn you snow!
posted by Talez at 3:09 PM on June 11, 2009
"If the cases are mild, then the only way hospitals are going to be overwhelmed is if some alarmist media sources get people all worked up and heading to the hospital for every little cough."
On the other hand, having people overly worried means the spread of the virus can be tracked much more closely. There is a ton we can learn from that, which in turn can help us manage future pandemics.
Also, maybe the panic will finally get people to wise up about washing their hands, sneezing into their elbows, and staying the hell home when they're sick.
posted by five fresh fish at 3:12 PM on June 11, 2009
On the other hand, having people overly worried means the spread of the virus can be tracked much more closely. There is a ton we can learn from that, which in turn can help us manage future pandemics.
Also, maybe the panic will finally get people to wise up about washing their hands, sneezing into their elbows, and staying the hell home when they're sick.
posted by five fresh fish at 3:12 PM on June 11, 2009
staying the hell home when they're sick.
Today at my kid's grade 5 "graduation" ceremony they gave out several "Perfect Attendance" awards which kinda annoyed me because it contributes to exactly that behaviour - coming to school while sick. Not being late to school is good to encourage but no parent should value perfect attendance over not spreading some bug around.
posted by GuyZero at 3:15 PM on June 11, 2009
Today at my kid's grade 5 "graduation" ceremony they gave out several "Perfect Attendance" awards which kinda annoyed me because it contributes to exactly that behaviour - coming to school while sick. Not being late to school is good to encourage but no parent should value perfect attendance over not spreading some bug around.
posted by GuyZero at 3:15 PM on June 11, 2009
I believe (at least, according to this article) that it's at 28,744 cases with 144 deaths, bringing the death rate to a whopping 0.005%.
SixteenTons, do you happen to work for Verizon?
posted by painquale at 3:37 PM on June 11, 2009 [6 favorites]
SixteenTons, do you happen to work for Verizon?
posted by painquale at 3:37 PM on June 11, 2009 [6 favorites]
Heh. When I was a kid you went to school if you could walk, the only exception being if you displayed some kind of obvious symptoms like spots or a fever. (And even then it had to be a really bad fever or it was out the door with you.) But that was a different, less socially responsible era.
I think what we're seeing now with H1N1 and the earlier Avian Flu is the development of a global immune system. For the first time, humanity has become organized enough to track and tackle these viruses on a total level, instead of just dealing with them on a regional or national basis and letting the rest of the world take care of itself. There's still lots of problems to be figured out, but it's really encouraging that this kind of organization even exists. Hopefully we'll get better and better at dealing with pandemics over time.
posted by Kevin Street at 3:43 PM on June 11, 2009 [1 favorite]
I think what we're seeing now with H1N1 and the earlier Avian Flu is the development of a global immune system. For the first time, humanity has become organized enough to track and tackle these viruses on a total level, instead of just dealing with them on a regional or national basis and letting the rest of the world take care of itself. There's still lots of problems to be figured out, but it's really encouraging that this kind of organization even exists. Hopefully we'll get better and better at dealing with pandemics over time.
posted by Kevin Street at 3:43 PM on June 11, 2009 [1 favorite]
I'm waiting for someone on Oprah to tell me that eating bacon will give me autism.
OPRAH OR IT DIDN'T HAPPEN
posted by tzikeh at 3:58 PM on June 11, 2009 [4 favorites]
OPRAH OR IT DIDN'T HAPPEN
posted by tzikeh at 3:58 PM on June 11, 2009 [4 favorites]
The kids who go to those schools work in businesses in the area
I hope they aren't spending too much time in school or those NYC sweatshops aren't going to have a chance against the Salvadoran shirt maker children.
posted by morganw at 4:33 PM on June 11, 2009
I hope they aren't spending too much time in school or those NYC sweatshops aren't going to have a chance against the Salvadoran shirt maker children.
posted by morganw at 4:33 PM on June 11, 2009
Maybe I was just lucky growin' up in the sticks, but I never had a flu vaccine, and never got super-duper sick. Granted, when I moved to Pittsburgh back in the early '90's, I got laid-down sick every spring for like three or four years in a row, but now I don't seem to get sick all that often. At least, not like flu-sick. I get the odd food poisoning or minor injury, a cold here and there, but I can't remember the last time I got flu-like symptoms. In fact, I had never even heard of flu vaccines until a few years ago, when the "not enough vaccine" thing was in the news.
posted by Mister Moofoo at 6:26 PM on June 11, 2009
posted by Mister Moofoo at 6:26 PM on June 11, 2009
I'm waiting for someone on Oprah to tell me that eating bacon will give me autism.
it only does if you arrange it into perfect squares while cooking it
posted by pyramid termite at 8:48 PM on June 11, 2009 [2 favorites]
it only does if you arrange it into perfect squares while cooking it
posted by pyramid termite at 8:48 PM on June 11, 2009 [2 favorites]
Stop picking on SixteenOunces, you guys.
posted by No-sword at 4:04 AM on June 12, 2009 [1 favorite]
posted by No-sword at 4:04 AM on June 12, 2009 [1 favorite]
I think there may be some sort of gap between what epidemiologists consider a pandemic and the lay interpretation of the word.
I think you're right. I believe "pandemic" just means it's an illness that will inevitably spread throughout the world, and does not necessarily involve wiping out million of people.
Pandemic = sustained "community-level outbreaks" in at least two regions. Doesn't say anything about the severity of the illness. See here (PDF); more here.
posted by Infinite Jest at 8:58 AM on June 12, 2009
I think you're right. I believe "pandemic" just means it's an illness that will inevitably spread throughout the world, and does not necessarily involve wiping out million of people.
Pandemic = sustained "community-level outbreaks" in at least two regions. Doesn't say anything about the severity of the illness. See here (PDF); more here.
posted by Infinite Jest at 8:58 AM on June 12, 2009
Generally speaking, the milder forms of viruses spread faster than the more serious/deadly forms, simply because there's no "OMG, evil flu! Lock'em up! Run away!" reaction to the milder forms. This is likely part of why the initial outbreak had a much higher mortality rate, despite the continued spread of the virus worldwide. Being a brand-new virus, it will still cause noted illness in more people than a typical flu, and will therefore have a slightly higher mortality rate. But most people, especially those with access to good food and clean water, have no reason to worry.
Speaking of which, where is the vaccine? They've had plenty of time.
Um, not really, no.
posted by zennie at 9:17 AM on June 12, 2009
Speaking of which, where is the vaccine? They've had plenty of time.
Um, not really, no.
posted by zennie at 9:17 AM on June 12, 2009
Being a brand-new virus, it will still cause noted illness in more people than a typical flu, and will therefore have a slightly higher mortality rate.
Can you explain this a little more? It seems that so far this strain has a lower mortality rate than the seasonal flu. Why does new=more lethal?
posted by CunningLinguist at 9:32 AM on June 12, 2009
Can you explain this a little more? It seems that so far this strain has a lower mortality rate than the seasonal flu. Why does new=more lethal?
posted by CunningLinguist at 9:32 AM on June 12, 2009
New = no natural immunity in the population. It is theoretically "more lethal" if you in total number of deaths because of an increased total number of infections. (Please note: all of my above statements, are vastly simplified.)
posted by zennie at 10:17 AM on June 12, 2009
posted by zennie at 10:17 AM on June 12, 2009
Right, but does more people infected automatically mean more deaths?
posted by CunningLinguist at 10:22 AM on June 12, 2009
posted by CunningLinguist at 10:22 AM on June 12, 2009
There tends to be that kind of relationship between prevalence and mortality, statistically.
posted by zennie at 10:36 AM on June 12, 2009
posted by zennie at 10:36 AM on June 12, 2009
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Wait, most cases are mild? That's a relief. I'll just revise the end of the world signs to read: Watch out! Mild Fever ahead!
posted by filthy light thief at 10:27 AM on June 11, 2009