While Shippensburg University professor David Kalist's report in Social Science Quarterly shows that "unpopular names are likely not the cause of crime," he explains that factors often associated with those names can "increase the tendency toward juvenile delinquency."
Boys with unpopular, girlish or uncommon names often are ridiculed by peers, come from families of low socioeconomic status and face discrimination in the workforce based on a preconceived bias about their names, according to the study, which analysed more than 15,000 names.
Conclusions. Unpopular names are likely not the cause of crime but correlated with factors that increase the tendency toward juvenile delinquency, such as a disadvantaged home environment and residence in a county with low socioeconomic status.So, instead, I shall raise a mighty cry of "Duh" and then throw a "WTF shitty science journalism" fit. Feel free to join me.
I think there is a good chance that even the claimed correlation between unusual names and criminality is wrong. I only quickly glanced through the academic paper, but it seems to me like the authors have made a mistake that will bias their results.posted by Jaltcoh at 8:56 AM on July 14, 2009 [14 favorites]
The authors first compute criminality for each name by taking the ratio of the number of juvenile delinquents with that name and dividing it by the number of children total with that name. The higher that ratio, the more criminal the name. But then the authors take the log of that ratio. The problem is that the log of zero is equal to negative infinity, so any name for which that ratio is equal to zero gets dropped from the analysis.
The kinds of names that will have a ratio of zero are uncommon names for which no one with that name is a juvenile delinquent.
If I understand correctly what they are doing, if exactly one person has a particular name, the only way that the observation for that name will be included in their sample is if that person is a juvenile delinquent! This leads to a powerful bias toward mistakenly concluding that people with uncommon names are more likely to be criminals.
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posted by cloeburner at 7:41 AM on July 14, 2009 [8 favorites]