Japan's New Day

August 29, 2009 8:03 AM

Japan's opposition party, The Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), is projected to win a landslide victory tomorrow, ending the 52-year reign of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). Furthermore, according to a survey conducted by the popular Asahi Shimbun newspaper, the DPJ could win a two-thirds majority, enabling them to roll legislation through the Diet unabated. Despite the projections, the two parties are still battling hard. Washington is following these elections very closely, because of the man who could be the next prime minister, Yukio Hatoyama.

In an op-ed piece for the New York Times, Hatoyama criticizes US economic and foreign policy, and says that while "the Japan-U.S. security pact will continue to be the cornerstone of Japanese diplomatic policy", that "we must continue to build frameworks for stable economic cooperation and security across the [East Asian] region", including the development of a single pan-Asian currency. In addition, Hatoyama has been vocal about his opposition to public officials visiting Yasukuni Jinja, a Shinto shrine honoring fallen Japanese soldiers, including numerous war criminals - a move that could smooth relations with China and Korea. Gerald Curtis, a Japanese politics expert who teaches at Columbia University, sums up the sea change within the Japanese electorate thusly: "The DPJ will almost certainly win the majority — without a coalition partner. This is a huge, huge change. ... The public was waiting for a chance to show their dissatisfaction, which is why they had no election, because [Shinzo] Abe, [Yasuo] Fukuda and Aso knew that they would lose. So, they put it off until the very last moment. And lo and behold, they're going to lose."

posted by Marisa Stole the Precious Thing (46 comments total)

From the Hatoyama link:

Another pillar of the DPJ’s platform to end the current political order is to break the dynasties that have dominated post-war Japan, through its policy of banning the "inheriting" of electoral constituencies by relatives.

The problem is endemic in Japan: One-third of Lower House LDP members inherited their seats from older members of the family, rising to two-thirds in the cabinet of ministers. The current prime minister, and his three predecessors, are all sons or grandsons of former premiers. These boys, and a few girls, put the Clintons and Bushes to shame, and certainly give the Kennedys a run for their money.

Whoah. Could any mefites more familiar with Japanese politics explain why this is the case?
posted by Ndwright at 8:12 AM on August 29, 2009 [1 favorite]

I'm sure there are significant differences, but The Democratic party of Japan and Liberal Democratic Party sound like Judean Popular People's Front vs. People's Front of Judea to my uneducated ears. I found the basic policies for DPJ, but LDP's website is less straight-forward in this goal.
posted by filthy light thief at 8:19 AM on August 29, 2009 [2 favorites]

The DPJ will get in, but it's no big deal. Although there is a lot of posturing, their party is comprised of the same oligarchs and career retreads as the ruling LDP. There is no fundamental difference between the two parties (think the DPJ will reduce ties with Washington? No chance, whatsoever), except that the DPJ will further reduce subsidies and funding to regional and rural Japan - that's why the cities tend to vote DPJ, and the countryside votes LDP.

The Western MSM coverage of Japanese politics is terrible, by the way. The more interesting and accurate English-language reporting these days is in the blogosphere:

Observing Japan

Mutant Frog

Ampontan
posted by KokuRyu at 8:26 AM on August 29, 2009 [10 favorites]

I'm sure there are significant differences, but The Democratic party of Japan and Liberal Democratic Party sound like Judean Popular People's Front vs. People's Front of Judea to my uneducated ears.

The most significant differences, from what I've been reading, boil down to a shift in foreign and economic policy that edges away from Washington and towards east Asia. The change in attitude with regards to Yasukuni shrine is pretty big, too, considering the hurricane of controversy it creates within Japan and across Asia. The AP article and Hatoyama's article go into the foreign and economic policy changes, respectively, in greater depth.
posted by Marisa Stole the Precious Thing at 8:26 AM on August 29, 2009

A bit about the LDP's platform for this election. The Wikipedia article on the various factions that make up the LDP. The factions of the DPJ.

One reason why you're having trouble finding the LDP's basic policies is that there haven't been a lot of specifics from them for this election. They're mostly selling themselves as the reliable known quantity.
posted by jedicus at 8:27 AM on August 29, 2009

Thanks for this post.

I've been following this story over the past few days, but I still don't have a clear sense of why the LDP was able to maintain such a longstanding hold on power (52 years of one-party rule is something I associate with puppet regimes, not legitimate democracies) or why the Japanese electorate has only now became definitively disillusioned with its rule. Most coverage points to Japan's current economic crisis, but then why didn't earlier periods of recession and retrenchment (I'm thinking of the infamous crash of 1989-1990) affect the LDP's strangehold on political power?
posted by foxy_hedgehog at 8:34 AM on August 29, 2009

Wow, the DPJ's platform was fairly stultifying. What would the policy changes mean for the average Japanese person? Is it just a hope that these guys will be better stewards of the economy?
posted by delmoi at 8:43 AM on August 29, 2009

The most significant differences, from what I've been reading, boil down to a shift in foreign and economic policy that edges away from Washington and towards east Asia.

Interesting. Do you (plural or singular, MSTPT) think that this could be seen as part of a larger shift within Asia that might include a broad movement away from using the dollar as a reserve currency?
posted by foxy_hedgehog at 8:48 AM on August 29, 2009

Do you (plural or singular, MSTPT) think that this could be seen as part of a larger shift within Asia that might include a broad movement away from using the dollar as a reserve currency?

Well, that movement is already starting to take shape. And while Hatoyama says in the NYT piece that he doesn't see a single Asian currency for at least another ten years, I think it's pretty much a matter of time before it happens.
posted by Marisa Stole the Precious Thing at 8:54 AM on August 29, 2009

What would the policy changes mean for the average Japanese person?

Nothing. My wife is mildly interested in the election because the LDP might lose, but nobody trusts the DPJ. I mean, the DPJ was, until recently run by former LDP-er Ichiro Ozawa, a prototypical dirtbag if there ever was one.
posted by KokuRyu at 9:01 AM on August 29, 2009

including the development of a single pan-Asian currency

The Japanese are second only to the Chinese in the scale of their currency interventions; they've been printing yen and buying dollars to both support the dollar and to keep their exports cost-competitive in the US. They have, in essence, been importing our inflation, just like the Chinese, and it's a lot of the reason that goods inflation has been subdued over the last six or seven years. (I've been wondering, lately, if the health care cost increases are actually an early sign of domestic inflation -- doctors have pricing power that manufacturers don't.)

Japan's leadership is probably realizing that they'll never be paid back in dollars of equivalent value, and they're starting to look for the escape hatch.

Of the positions discussed in this post, it's that quiet sentence that could have the biggest impact on your life.
posted by Malor at 9:11 AM on August 29, 2009

Very sad to say, KokuRyu is right that there is little difference between the parties. I saw my local DPJ rep Maehara Seiji gladhanding yesterday in front of his newly refurbished and expanded (anticipating lots of supplicants, no doubt) office across from the supermarket. He has been a member of FOUR different parties in a 15-year career, and that is not unusual. He was actually party leader in 2005 and might be a frontrunner for PM now, but had to take the ceremonial fall when a greenhorn rep made a rookie mistake (cf. Livedoor scandal).
posted by planetkyoto at 9:14 AM on August 29, 2009

Somehow I don't really see China and Japan sharing a currency for a long time. Keep in mind the European Union had see a very high degree of government collaboration after WWII, under the shared threat of the Soviet Union, but also economic integration was seen as a way to prevent future wars.

There's also a systemic difference in that in Asia you have one huge country, China, and a bunch of smaller ones. And everyone hates the Japanese as well. So these smaller countries would basically be ceding their economic independence to China.

But who knows, I suppose it could happen.
posted by delmoi at 9:25 AM on August 29, 2009

planetkyoto: Very sad to say, KokuRyu is right that there is little difference between the parties.

I don't know Japanese politics but if one of them has been dominant for 52 years it stands to reason to me that any others would have been tailoring themselves to try to obtain the same appeal that the dominant party had. Wikipedia calls the LDP "one of the most consistently successful political parties in the democratic world".

delmoi: And everyone hates the Japanese as well.

Definitely, I would think that it'd take lots more than the shrine thing to get the Chinese to forget the humiliating imperial conquest and biological warfare experiments and everything.
posted by XMLicious at 9:40 AM on August 29, 2009

It's Judgement Day
posted by KokuRyu at 9:41 AM on August 29, 2009 [3 favorites]

What happened to that guy from the Nihilist Party that was touring Japan in a panel van with a PA system, talking about how if elected he would destroy the state?

There were a couple of incredibly awesome campaign videos of him on YouTube which have been taken down, but were just him staring straight into the camera and delivering an increasingly unhinged rant about how he, if elected, would kill everything and everyone. (From what I had heard, he was more crazy than joking.)
posted by klangklangston at 10:31 AM on August 29, 2009 [1 favorite]

Wait, how long has Taro Aso been the Prime Minister of Japan?
posted by kldickson at 10:52 AM on August 29, 2009

Since last September, but the economic crisis has helped fuel the cries for new elections, and he eventually caved to the demand last July.
posted by Marisa Stole the Precious Thing at 10:58 AM on August 29, 2009

Whoah. Could any mefites more familiar with Japanese politics explain why this is the case?

The Western CW would probably say that Japan favors stability and continuity as part of its more structured society.

A few more mechanical explanations are that the single-seat electoral system favors pre-selected candidates, that funding is by party rather than candidate, or more generally that Japanese politics, as is typical of Asia, is tangled in cronyism.

On the other hand, consider that in the US, the Democrats controlled the House of Representatives continuously from 1955 until 1995, and the Senate from 1955 until 1981.

Japan, like the US, maintains a largely consistent bipartisan foreign policy. It would be contrary to national interests to have major swings tied to elections, so maybe to some eyes this boils down to "no significant differences". But it's entirely consistent with Realism, the theory of foreign policy in which nations are assumed to, for the most part, act in line with a baseline national interest. For Japan, counterbalance with China will always be paramount.

Wait, how long has Taro Aso been the Prime Minister of Japan?

About 11 months. Japan has had 27 PMs since 1947 for an average of 23 months, and three in the last three years since Koizumi quit (or more gracefully, retired).
posted by dhartung at 11:29 AM on August 29, 2009 [1 favorite]

"...the DPJ could win a two-thirds majority, enabling them to roll legislation through the Diet unabated."

Surely, no single party with majority in the legislature would just roll over the minority!
posted by Marky at 11:50 AM on August 29, 2009

Since last September, but the economic crisis has helped fuel the cries for new elections, and he eventually caved to the demand last July.

Actually, according to the Japanese constitution, in his role as prime minister Aso was required to dissolve the Lower House (triggering an election) and hold an election by the end of September.
posted by KokuRyu at 12:25 PM on August 29, 2009

Ah, yeah, on review of other sources, that is the case. It's a pretty byzantine system at times and to me, fascinating to follow, even if I do sometimes feel like I'm in a maze of mirrors.
posted by Marisa Stole the Precious Thing at 1:33 PM on August 29, 2009

Bullshit. This is obviously a right-wing conspiracy to take our eyes off what's happening here in the U.S.
posted by CountSpatula at 2:53 PM on August 29, 2009

What happened to that guy from the Nihilist Party that was touring Japan in a panel van with a PA system, talking about how if elected he would destroy the state?

Didn't you hear? He ran for president of the U.S. and won.

Also, I'm surprised there has been no mention of MeFi's post on the Happiness Realization Party in this discussion. You'll see the folly of this oversight before the day is through!!
posted by shii at 3:31 PM on August 29, 2009 [1 favorite]

I've honestly been rooting for the JCP, even though I know nothing about them apart from their platform.
posted by Marisa Stole the Precious Thing at 3:35 PM on August 29, 2009

Japanese studies major who has heard this too many times to get my hopes up.
And unless they are less politically complacent/resigned to the same old, same old, than when I lived there for 3 years, nothing is going to change.
posted by hooptycritter at 3:37 PM on August 29, 2009

Just waking up on election day here in Japan...

What KokuRyu said is basically correct. The two parties have an incestuous relationship going back for the past twenty years, with the DPJ having a mix of idealists and defectors from the LDP. The original DPJ formed in 1998 was basically a center-left coalition, but the Liberal Party (a center-right party started by Ichiro Ozawa, also in 1998) joined the DPJ in 2003. The Liberal Party was actually part of the government for a short time in 1999, but Ozawa decided to take the party back into opposition after Komeito stole their thunder in the 2001 elections. Ozawa is a major figure in Japanese politics going back to the 1970s, and is known as "The Destroyer" for his scandals leading to the breakup of whatever party/coalition he was in at the time. Yet he has always made comebacks, time and time again.

Anyway, the point is that the DPJ is stuffed full of people handpicked by Ozawa. Although Ozawa is no longer party leader, he is widely seen as the major power broker within the party, and the major question is what will he do once the election is over. Tobias Harris over at Observing Japan thinks that he should be included in the cabinet to keep him from meddling and undermining the DPJ's promise to run a clean, transparent government. We'll see what happens, especially since Hatoyama is indebted to Ozawa as well.

Although the two parties don't differ much in their policies and their lack of explanation on how they plan to pay for them, the major differences are in domestic policy rather than foreign policy. The DPJ seems intent on devolving power to local and regional governments, which is part of a larger plan to take the running of government out of the hands of the bureaucracy and reduce waste. This resonates with a lot of people, which combined with the LDP's abysmal record on cutting waste and eliminating corruption, makes an overwhelming DPJ win seem only natural.

But I think most people are fairly cynical about the situation in Japan. It faces the double dilemma of a shrinking overall population but an increasing population of older people, which will strain social services (right now there are three workers for every pensioner, but that's supposed to rise to 1.2 workers for every pensioner by 2055). It has the highest debt-to-GDP ratio in the developed world. Immigration will become a key issue -- but both parties are ignoring that. The real meaning behind a DPJ win is that this will be the second time since 1955 that a non-LDP party has held a majority in the House of Representatives, and likely the first time that a single party will be able to do so unaided, meaning it will be a relatively strong government (compared to 1993). This will force the LDP to do some real soul searching -- hopefully leading to more responsive parties and more young people rising up within them.

We live in interesting times.
posted by armage at 4:23 PM on August 29, 2009 [1 favorite]

Even if the DPJ wins today, it's very unlikely that there will be large scale systemic changes. Many members of the DPJ were, at one time, members of the LDP. As pointed out above, there is also the issue of hereditary seats, which is common in both parties. Aso's grandfather was PM. According to this article, six of the last seven PM's were descendants of former Prime Ministers, and 11 of the 17 cabinet members are following in their family footsteps. Koizumi (the last PM with any sense of leadership) has designated his own seat to be given to his son, who has done very, very little to deserve it. He was said to be very active in his father's campaigns, though rumor has it his activity was essentially sorting the garbage at headquarters.

Perhaps the DPJ will try to end that, just as they've promised (like, well, everyone) to end Amakudari, the process whereby beaurocrats tend to receive cushy appointments upon retirement in the very industry they were supposed to be overseeing. Whether or not any meaningful reform happens there could be the biggest effect of this election.

Of course, in a country where people sometimes vote for a person because their name was easier to remember, I guess you get the leadership you deserve.
posted by Ghidorah at 5:14 PM on August 29, 2009

fwiw, "sea change" is something that occurs gradually over time.
posted by edgeways at 5:23 PM on August 29, 2009

Well no surprises as the election results scroll their way across the TV screen.....
posted by gomichild at 4:46 AM on August 30, 2009

fwiw, "sea change" is something that occurs gradually over time.

FWIW, I know. The linked article in that sentence describes a sea change. But apparently the two parties are identical and nothing's going to change, so there we have it.
posted by Marisa Stole the Precious Thing at 5:11 AM on August 30, 2009

Although the counting hasn't ended yet, every media outlet in Japan is calling for the DPJ to obtain a majority by itself, and some are even saying that it will control a supermajority (2/3) of the lower house.

Even if you're not too keen on the guys running the party, you have to admit that it's pretty damn historic. Imagine the Republican Party holding power for over 50 years, then losing in a blowout to a Democratic Party that had never held a majority in either house of Congress and had no experience running government -- it's something like that for Japan.

Keep an eye on Observing Japan (linked upthread) for live commentary from Tobias Harris, who's in a media center somewhere in Tokyo.
posted by armage at 5:51 AM on August 30, 2009 [1 favorite]

force the LDP to do some real soul searching -- hopefully leading to more responsive parties and more young people rising up within them.


This. armage sums it up perfectly, I think.

Nothing might change, but it's still a major change nonetheless. Nothing like this has ever happened before while I've been old enough to vote; in fact, 52 years means years before I was even born.

Just the fact that Hatoyama's willing to stop that Yasukuni mess is enough to vote for his party, I think. And I've always considered Naoto Kan to be one of the relatively more respectable Japanese politicians because I remember the way when he was health minister for the LDP he worked to expose the government's responsibility regarding the spreading of tainted blood. He's not super-clean, but at the time what he did was truly unprecedented, and to me it was the first time that a politician actually followed through with his convictions and did something right, did something that actually made a positive difference in people's lives. I personally don't care for Ichiro Ozawa, but I'll probably support the Minshuto as long as Kan-san is a member.

For now, it's just awesome watching people like Nakagawa (who made that embarrassingly incoherent speech while intoxicated at the G8 conference) and Takebe and Fukuda and all of the "Koizumi Children" (except the real one, boo) lose their seats by such a wide margin. I've never seen anything like this happen before, except that one time Hosokawa had a brief stint as PM, and even though deep down I know that not much will probably change, it just makes me hopeful.

I'm also hoping Minshuto will follow through with its promise to make public education free until high school.
posted by misozaki at 6:27 AM on August 30, 2009 [2 favorites]

Thanks, armage and misozaki. I may not live in Japan and understand all the intricacies of politics there, but in what I've read it seemed like a party losing power after 52 years, the PM-to-be pledging to avoid Yasukuni as long as there are war criminals honored there, and the economic/foreign policy ideas Hatoyama brings up in the NYT article made for some really fascinating stuff. I understand there's a lot of distrust and cynicism, but still. Seemed a big deal to me anyway.
posted by Marisa Stole the Precious Thing at 6:35 AM on August 30, 2009

It is a big deal, Marisa Stole the Precious Thing! It is for me, and for the many people who voted Minshuto in this election. Great post, by the way, sorry I didn't say so before.
posted by misozaki at 6:47 AM on August 30, 2009

Oh boo, Fukuda's been reelected.
posted by misozaki at 6:57 AM on August 30, 2009

Oh, I don't mean to demean the DPJ's victory whatsoever -- it is certainly a big deal, and a huge accomplishment. After all, three years ago everyone figured the DPJ would breakup in the wake of the email scandal involving Horie Takafumi (the former head of Livedoor), but they managed to win a 2/3 majority in the upper house and have now made a complete takeover. I just want to remind folks outside Japan that things will not change as much as they expect in terms of foreign relations. Domestic policy is another matter...

Incidentally, Misozaki's comments are typical of many Japanese. They know nothing except the LDP and the various opposition parties that have come and gone over the years, and they are wary of handing the reins of government to an untested party -- but as the stagnation of the past 15+ years has shown, the thinking at this point is that anyone could do a better job than the LDP. I wish the DPJ luck, and I hope that they remember why they were chosen to lead Japan

(Not to depress you, misozaki, but Yasuo Fukuda won his seat, BTW. So did Nanking Massacre denier Tomomi Inada. I'm crossing my fingers that former PM Mori will bite the dust myself, but he'll still get in under the proportional representation system.)
posted by armage at 7:09 AM on August 30, 2009 [1 favorite]

Mr Hatoyama is the wealthy grandson of the founder of Bridgestone tyres, whose other grandfather was a former LDP prime minister.
posted by KokuRyu at 7:56 AM on August 30, 2009

Thanks, Armage and Misozaki and Kokuryu...I'm still unclear, however, about what it is about this particular moment that created the perfect storm for a shift in power.
posted by foxy_hedgehog at 8:06 AM on August 30, 2009

Well I'm no political analyst but Japan hasn't been in a great financial position for ages - wages haven't risen in years for your average worker but expenses have increased. There are a lot of tv reports on people working hard to just get by. Also we've had so many changes in Prime Minister recently it appears that the LDP just doesn't have anyone left with a strong enough personality to run.

In Japanese politics it's becoming more of a cult of personality - the politicians who were formerly on TV like the Governor of Osaka Toru Hashimoto and the Governor of Miyazaki Hideo Higashikokubaru who are bringing a more dynamic side to their roles and getting people excited. They are also getting results - Higashikokubaru's efforts have boosted sales of local produce and tourism - he never appears on TV without a bag of Miyazaki goodies, and Hashimoto seems to have made a difference financially for Osaka.
posted by gomichild at 3:42 PM on August 30, 2009

I'm still unclear, however, about what it is about this particular moment that created the perfect storm for a shift in power.

As gomichild said, the economic collapse and the longer-term economic malaise is part of it. However, there are a lot of little things that have added up to a bigger picture of the LDP as a bunch of incompetents. Food purity scandals, poor agricultural policy, disappearing pension records, amakudari, and general political deafness (c.f former Finance Minister Nakagawa's drunkenness at February's G7, or the innumerable "hatsugen" from government ministers) -- and that's just in the past few years. Another thing to keep in mind is that Junichiro Koizumi's huge victory in the "postal privatization" election in 2005 was essentially just that -- a referendum on Koizumi and his policies, not the LDP. (Witness the so-called "Koizumi children" dropping like flies in this election.) Poll numbers for the LDP just kept sagging over the course of Aso's administration, and he was essentially forced into calling the election when he did (due to the term of the current House of Representatives ending in September). These factors, plus an utter lack of charisma among current LDP leaders, led to this "perfect storm" victory for the DPJ.

At the prefectural level, politics are much closer to that in the US -- there's a directly-elected governor who has a great deal of power, and therefore the more charismatic one is the better one will do in an election. The three "famous governors" are Hashimoto in Osaka, Higashikokubaru in Miyazaki, and Morita in Chiba -- all former TV personalities. The former two have been quite outspoken on devolving authority to prefectures and municipalities, something that the DPJ says they will pursue. Gomichild is right that they have been boons to their respective constituencies, if only by making a lot of noise about the financial and economic problems that they and other prefectures face.

Anyway, the most surprising thing about this election was that there were no surprises, really. All of the polling indicated a DPJ landslide, and that did indeed occur. They won't have a 2/3 majority by themselves, but since they control the upper house at least until 2010 it's not a major issue. They'll still likely form a coalition with the numerous smaller parties, but they will without a doubt control the debate from now on.
posted by armage at 5:22 PM on August 30, 2009 [1 favorite]

Can someone just say whether Akira is coming back or not?
posted by Liver at 6:42 PM on August 30, 2009 [1 favorite]

They'll still likely form a coalition with the numerous smaller parties

Got my fingers crossed for R&G and the JCP!

I'm being too optimistic here, aren't I?
posted by Marisa Stole the Precious Thing at 8:06 PM on August 30, 2009

I tend to agree with Sean Kinsell's brief analysis of the DPJ win:

One thing I can say: it’s nice to see the Japanese citizenry projecting boldness and vigor on the world stage. For the last twenty years, the Western media narratives have operated at two extremes: either the grin-and-bear-it Japanese were soldiering on through their economic malaise like helpless drones, or some sensationalizably freakish subculture (like hikikomori kids or people who hang out at manga/Internet cafes) represented the social meltdown that was just around the corner. At least, whatever the Hatoyama administration actually ends up doing, for the time being the story will rightly be one of voters using the democratic process to hold their underperforming leaders accountable.
posted by KokuRyu at 8:41 PM on August 30, 2009 [1 favorite]

PM's new wife claims to have been abducted by aliens
posted by delmoi at 8:34 AM on September 3, 2009

Er, I mean new PM's wife.
posted by delmoi at 8:34 AM on September 3, 2009