Clinton-era Labor Secretary Robert Reich recently speculated about what lies ahead for the economy. He wrote he see only a 10 percent chance of a double dip recession (vs. a 30 percent chance of a strong or solid recovery; a 40 percent chance of a jobless recovery; and a 20 percent chance of a stalled recovery).posted by stbalbach at 5:50 PM on January 25, 2010 [2 favorites]
Take the Stuyvesant Town deal. The investors aren't shady subprime lenders or naive kids. ... One of the most persistent narratives of the recent crisis portrays a nation of unsophisticated home buyers led astray by greedy bankers. Supposedly those bankers were willing to write risky loans because they intended to pass them on to some unwary investor. But this explanation falters in the face of a legion of failing commercial deals. Prospective landlords had all the expertise they should have needed to put a fair price on properties—and the majority of lenders who were originating loans for their own portfolios had ample incentive to perform careful due diligence. The best explanation for the calamity that has overtaken us may simply be that cheap money makes us all stupid.posted by Johnny Assay at 7:46 PM on January 25, 2010 [4 favorites]
But guess who's losing billions, it's not Tishman Speyer, it's creditors like the state of California's pension system which now has to liquidate (or manage) the Stuy-town property.Well, why is calpers investing in such crazy-ass schemes in the first place? The whole "OH NOES STATE PENSION FUNDS" thing is a bit much. It seems like these things are often pretty corruptly managed.
Everyone should simply incorporate their families, or themselves. There, done. Buy your house through your corporation; want to walk away? It's just business. Want to contribution tons of money to a campaign without your neighbors getting upset? Use the corporation. It seems so simple somehow.Well, with a no-recourse mortgage ordinary people can already walk away from their mortgages if they want too. Incorporating in a LLC is something people already do if they want to. And before the SCOTUS ruiling people could already spend whatever they wanted on campaigns, as long as the spending wasn't co-ordinated. You could donate as much as you wanted to MoveOn, for example. The law has just changed to make it legal for corporations to do the same thing.
(And although it would suck to be evicted, the same market forces mean you could almost certainly get a nicer place for the same money -- or pay less for the same niceties elsewhere.)If it's not obvious: rent control means you don't pay market rate. But if you move out, you have to get a new apt at the current market rate, which then stays fixed. The market rates now, even in a down turn are going to be more then they were when the tenant moved in (based on my understanding of NYC rent control, which I read about in an Econ 101 textbook)
Note to self: the banks tell defaulting home owners that it is immoral to "walk away."The banks don't walk away from their debt. They walk to the US Congress. They make sure that debt is properly disposed of.
But they do it with their properties.
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posted by fatbird at 4:00 PM on January 25, 2010 [2 favorites]