It's the climate, stupid
November 30, 2010 3:48 AM Subscribe
As the UK experiences the coldest November on record, one is reminded of last year's record-breaking cold. Perhaps some of us will remember last winter with a visual aid.
Regardless, debates about climate change go on, with Cameron refusing to participate in the upcoming UN climate summit in Mexico.
Looking at the extreme weather and natural events of 2010, there can be little doubt our natural world is changing...
January: Haitian earthquake
February: Chilean earthquake
April: Eyjafjallajokull volcano, Deep Water Horizon Oil Platform
June: The Warmest Month In Human History (for the fourth year in a row).
July: Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (Pakistan) floods, Typhoon Chanthu (China)
August: Moscow (Russia) extreme heat and forest fires
September: Oaxaca (Mexico) landslides, Los Angeles (United States) heat wave
October: Sumatra (Indonesia) earthquake and tsunami
Of course, it's not all doom and gloom. Extreme winters are good for prices and better for energy investors. Whilst common people around the world are stricken with everything from loss of life to food insecurity, new financial markets are emerging to protect the wealthy from the economic savagery of climate change. After all, $222B is too big a loss for financial markets to bear.
Whilst the West continues to prolong the debate and in the meantime, take record profits, the nations most affected have decided to go their own direction in solving these problems.
...and, yes Virginia, earthquakes are related to climate change
Looking at the extreme weather and natural events of 2010, there can be little doubt our natural world is changing...
January: Haitian earthquake
February: Chilean earthquake
April: Eyjafjallajokull volcano, Deep Water Horizon Oil Platform
June: The Warmest Month In Human History (for the fourth year in a row).
July: Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (Pakistan) floods, Typhoon Chanthu (China)
August: Moscow (Russia) extreme heat and forest fires
September: Oaxaca (Mexico) landslides, Los Angeles (United States) heat wave
October: Sumatra (Indonesia) earthquake and tsunami
Of course, it's not all doom and gloom. Extreme winters are good for prices and better for energy investors. Whilst common people around the world are stricken with everything from loss of life to food insecurity, new financial markets are emerging to protect the wealthy from the economic savagery of climate change. After all, $222B is too big a loss for financial markets to bear.
Whilst the West continues to prolong the debate and in the meantime, take record profits, the nations most affected have decided to go their own direction in solving these problems.
...and, yes Virginia, earthquakes are related to climate change
This post was deleted for the following reason: an Editorial hung together with weather and wikipedia links? No thanks. -- vacapinta
"...and, yes Virginia, earthquakes are related to climate change"
Really ... I didn't get that from that article. Are the rest of the links equally misrepresented?
Just asking, y'know
posted by jannw at 4:00 AM on November 30, 2010 [7 favorites]
Really ... I didn't get that from that article. Are the rest of the links equally misrepresented?
Just asking, y'know
posted by jannw at 4:00 AM on November 30, 2010 [7 favorites]
and, yes Virginia, earthquakes are related to climate change
Well, speculatively, anyway. Certainly not a proven link. Not that I don't believe that climate change is real, it is, and it is caused predominantly by human activity but citing a couple earthquakes, a volcanic eruption and human caused oil spill and then claiming that they are proof our world is changing is misleading, disingenious or both.
Earthquake data since 1900 shows steady numbers of strong earthquakes and earthquakes since 2000 seem to follow the century average. Whether that is evidence that human induced climate change is contributing to earthquake frequency I cannot say, but it doesn't appear to be.
Maybe World Wars stop volcanos.
It's easy to say look at this bad stuff happening, it proves I'm right. But as the ongoing debate about this topic shows, it's much more difficult to actually prove that you are right. Scientific consensus apparently means jack when it comes to affecting policy on this issue. Anyway, I don't think waving our hands and saying "earthquakes are caused by climate change, some scientist thinks so" is going to help the cause much.
posted by IvoShandor at 4:03 AM on November 30, 2010 [1 favorite]
Well, speculatively, anyway. Certainly not a proven link. Not that I don't believe that climate change is real, it is, and it is caused predominantly by human activity but citing a couple earthquakes, a volcanic eruption and human caused oil spill and then claiming that they are proof our world is changing is misleading, disingenious or both.
Earthquake data since 1900 shows steady numbers of strong earthquakes and earthquakes since 2000 seem to follow the century average. Whether that is evidence that human induced climate change is contributing to earthquake frequency I cannot say, but it doesn't appear to be.
Maybe World Wars stop volcanos.
It's easy to say look at this bad stuff happening, it proves I'm right. But as the ongoing debate about this topic shows, it's much more difficult to actually prove that you are right. Scientific consensus apparently means jack when it comes to affecting policy on this issue. Anyway, I don't think waving our hands and saying "earthquakes are caused by climate change, some scientist thinks so" is going to help the cause much.
posted by IvoShandor at 4:03 AM on November 30, 2010 [1 favorite]
I don't think I've ever seen so many server weather warnings issued simultaneously by the met office. Its is frigid I so wish I had central heating, I better go turn on the butane heaters :(.
posted by Virtblue at 4:08 AM on November 30, 2010
posted by Virtblue at 4:08 AM on November 30, 2010
I made my best attempt to mis-represent everything however unfortunately there is a growing body of knowledge that accurately represents itself...
"This dramatic warming is being felt across the Arctic region. In Alaska, earthquakes are rocking the seabed as tectonic plates – subdued for centuries by the weight of the glaciers on top of them – are now moving against each other again."
"...variations in the atmosphere and hydrosphere can drive very small changes in environmental conditions that are able, in turn, to trigger a response from the Earth’s crust.
"
"Our major conclusion is on a real possibility of the climate-seismicity coupling."
posted by nickrussell at 4:09 AM on November 30, 2010
"This dramatic warming is being felt across the Arctic region. In Alaska, earthquakes are rocking the seabed as tectonic plates – subdued for centuries by the weight of the glaciers on top of them – are now moving against each other again."
"...variations in the atmosphere and hydrosphere can drive very small changes in environmental conditions that are able, in turn, to trigger a response from the Earth’s crust.
"
"Our major conclusion is on a real possibility of the climate-seismicity coupling."
posted by nickrussell at 4:09 AM on November 30, 2010
"Looking at the extreme weather and natural events of 2010, there can be little doubt our natural world is changing..."
Isolated extreme events prove nothing about our world changing. Now if there is a trend where either the amplitude or frequency of these events is increasing or decreasing then statements can be made about world changing. But without the differential these are just isolated anecdotes.
posted by Mitheral at 4:17 AM on November 30, 2010 [4 favorites]
Isolated extreme events prove nothing about our world changing. Now if there is a trend where either the amplitude or frequency of these events is increasing or decreasing then statements can be made about world changing. But without the differential these are just isolated anecdotes.
posted by Mitheral at 4:17 AM on November 30, 2010 [4 favorites]
The Guardian article doesn't really say why Cameron has refused to participate in the climate summit, but the Telegraph reports it's because "there is unlikely to be a legally binding treaty that requires heads of state." Which isn't to say that's a good reason, but it's certainly better than the implication that Cameron hates the planet or something - he does, in fact, believe that climate change is real and caused by man-made action. The Telegraph article explains his POV a bit better.
I don't know Cameron's environmental record, but I think he makes some fair points. I guess I'm just wishing this FPP, as resource-rich as it is, was a little less bloggy.
posted by Marisa Stole the Precious Thing at 4:22 AM on November 30, 2010
I don't know Cameron's environmental record, but I think he makes some fair points. I guess I'm just wishing this FPP, as resource-rich as it is, was a little less bloggy.
posted by Marisa Stole the Precious Thing at 4:22 AM on November 30, 2010
Despite low expectations, at least 20 world leaders are expected to be present, the majority from Latin America. The small island states of Vanuatu, Samoa, Kiribati and Nauru are also planning to send their leaders.
What does the participation of these small states achieve? What do they bring to the bargaining table other than claims for financial compensation? Why should PM Cameron attend? It seems to me that he knows nothing will be achieved unless Britain is willing to make financial contributions that he is unable to offer. His island is broke too.
In any event, what is the point of having a big summit? Brasil, the US, Russia, China, and India are all that are needed to discuss the matter of climate change. If these countries can get something together, then there can be a deal. If not, then there will never be a deal no matter what the leader of Nauru, or of the UK, thinks.
posted by three blind mice at 4:29 AM on November 30, 2010 [1 favorite]
What does the participation of these small states achieve? What do they bring to the bargaining table other than claims for financial compensation? Why should PM Cameron attend? It seems to me that he knows nothing will be achieved unless Britain is willing to make financial contributions that he is unable to offer. His island is broke too.
In any event, what is the point of having a big summit? Brasil, the US, Russia, China, and India are all that are needed to discuss the matter of climate change. If these countries can get something together, then there can be a deal. If not, then there will never be a deal no matter what the leader of Nauru, or of the UK, thinks.
posted by three blind mice at 4:29 AM on November 30, 2010 [1 favorite]
This bs is exactly why we get nowhere on combating AGW. Throwing every major natural disaster up and screaming OMG Global Warming based on very weak evidence makes it easy for climate change deniers to throw up arguments against AGW. It also enables them to create controversy over little thugs while ignoring the big picture.
The really important data from this year are as follows:
1-Another overly active hurricane season. in spite of the fact that only one TS hit the USA we still saw records high sea surface temperatures and 19 storms in te Atlantic. We also saw one storm go through the most rapid strengthening in history (see Jeff Masters blog summary at Wunderground)
2-Rapid melting in the arctic -- the third lowest level of sea ice despite having above normal ice formation in the winter. Consider the pace of the ice melt from March -July.
3-Continued trends on rising average global temperatures in almost every month compared to previous years.
posted by humanfont at 4:36 AM on November 30, 2010 [7 favorites]
The really important data from this year are as follows:
1-Another overly active hurricane season. in spite of the fact that only one TS hit the USA we still saw records high sea surface temperatures and 19 storms in te Atlantic. We also saw one storm go through the most rapid strengthening in history (see Jeff Masters blog summary at Wunderground)
2-Rapid melting in the arctic -- the third lowest level of sea ice despite having above normal ice formation in the winter. Consider the pace of the ice melt from March -July.
3-Continued trends on rising average global temperatures in almost every month compared to previous years.
posted by humanfont at 4:36 AM on November 30, 2010 [7 favorites]
it's certainly better than the implication that Cameron hates the planet or something
Yeah, I wish it had been clearer about that, as I am a world champion conclusion-jumper and rashly decided he was an ignorant fascist buffoon. Sorry Dave.
posted by elizardbits at 4:38 AM on November 30, 2010
Yeah, I wish it had been clearer about that, as I am a world champion conclusion-jumper and rashly decided he was an ignorant fascist buffoon. Sorry Dave.
posted by elizardbits at 4:38 AM on November 30, 2010
what is this post about exactly?
posted by memebake at 4:40 AM on November 30, 2010 [1 favorite]
posted by memebake at 4:40 AM on November 30, 2010 [1 favorite]
I'm guessing it's about to be deleted.
posted by Optamystic at 4:41 AM on November 30, 2010 [2 favorites]
posted by Optamystic at 4:41 AM on November 30, 2010 [2 favorites]
I am a world champion conclusion-jumper and rashly decided he was an ignorant fascist buffoon.
Oh, trust me, I'm far from the biggest fan of the conservatives. And I'm definitely not a big fan of his "profits-driven incentives" model of fighting climate change (some measures that should be taken might cut into profits). I just think the most important question behind "Leader X did this" is "Why?", and it's nice to see it answered instead of left hanging out there within the context of "the West continues to prolong the debate and in the meantime, take record profits".
posted by Marisa Stole the Precious Thing at 4:44 AM on November 30, 2010
Oh, trust me, I'm far from the biggest fan of the conservatives. And I'm definitely not a big fan of his "profits-driven incentives" model of fighting climate change (some measures that should be taken might cut into profits). I just think the most important question behind "Leader X did this" is "Why?", and it's nice to see it answered instead of left hanging out there within the context of "the West continues to prolong the debate and in the meantime, take record profits".
posted by Marisa Stole the Precious Thing at 4:44 AM on November 30, 2010
Very nearly a good post. Shame you couldn't have focused more on the continuing failure of global governments to face up to the human causes of climate change. I fear the random list of extreme weather reports has doomed this thread to another round of denialist sniping.
posted by londonmark at 4:48 AM on November 30, 2010 [1 favorite]
posted by londonmark at 4:48 AM on November 30, 2010 [1 favorite]
random list of extreme weather reports
So that's what this is about?
posted by fixedgear at 4:49 AM on November 30, 2010
So that's what this is about?
posted by fixedgear at 4:49 AM on November 30, 2010
Can't this post just be about how FUCKING COLD it is in London today? Seriously, fuck this city and its dumb infrastructure and its offices with inadequate heating or ventilation. Also fuck my old boots, which have a hole in the sole where slush gets in.
posted by Ted Maul at 4:53 AM on November 30, 2010 [1 favorite]
posted by Ted Maul at 4:53 AM on November 30, 2010 [1 favorite]
We sane people are tensely awaiting the rise of the charismatic individual who will seize this manufactured "weather fear" and whip it up into a powerful worldwide political movement or new religion. I think that only that's saved us so far is the internet. The web not only deflates existing authority, it's preventing the rise of new authoritarian religions and regimes. Look at the way people from all sides of the debate are coming into this thread to puncture this post's medieval effort to catalogue random weather events and characterize them as the willful acts of the evil climate demon.
posted by Faze at 4:55 AM on November 30, 2010
posted by Faze at 4:55 AM on November 30, 2010
What's the point of having a big summit, three blind mice?
Dude, it's being held in CANCUN. They're holding it in CANCUN. You could have a surplus used sock expo, hold it in Cancun, and you'd have shitloads of people coming in because (A) it's CANCUN and (B) who gives a shit about socks - it's CANCUN and someone else is paying for your trip, three hots and a cot. In exchange, you go to a half-hour meeting.
Show up, get noticed, bug out - then it's hit the beach and PARTY!
(BTW, much as I believe in AGW (On the Ruddiman model, which if it's to be believed explains why we're not currently in an ice age w/polar bears snacking on penguins around Panama...) I'll believe these clowns are serious about global climate change when they start acting like Ed Begely jr and not Al Gore.
10 days in Cancun. In December. Man, it's tough to be them...
posted by JB71 at 4:56 AM on November 30, 2010 [1 favorite]
Dude, it's being held in CANCUN. They're holding it in CANCUN. You could have a surplus used sock expo, hold it in Cancun, and you'd have shitloads of people coming in because (A) it's CANCUN and (B) who gives a shit about socks - it's CANCUN and someone else is paying for your trip, three hots and a cot. In exchange, you go to a half-hour meeting.
Show up, get noticed, bug out - then it's hit the beach and PARTY!
(BTW, much as I believe in AGW (On the Ruddiman model, which if it's to be believed explains why we're not currently in an ice age w/polar bears snacking on penguins around Panama...) I'll believe these clowns are serious about global climate change when they start acting like Ed Begely jr and not Al Gore.
10 days in Cancun. In December. Man, it's tough to be them...
posted by JB71 at 4:56 AM on November 30, 2010 [1 favorite]
...doom-doom doom-doom-doom doom doom DOOM doom doom-doom SNOWMEN TASTE LIKE WAAAAAFLES doom-doom-doom doom doom-doom IF YOU PUT SYRUP ON THEM doom-doom doom doom-doom doom...
posted by loquacious at 5:19 AM on November 30, 2010 [1 favorite]
posted by loquacious at 5:19 AM on November 30, 2010 [1 favorite]
Royal Society special issue details ‘hellish vision’ of 7°F (4°C) world
A 4C rise in the planet’s temperature would see severe droughts across the world and millions of migrants seeking refuge as their food supplies collapse.
posted by T.D. Strange at 5:21 AM on November 30, 2010
A 4C rise in the planet’s temperature would see severe droughts across the world and millions of migrants seeking refuge as their food supplies collapse.
posted by T.D. Strange at 5:21 AM on November 30, 2010
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posted by Ted Maul at 3:58 AM on November 30, 2010 [1 favorite]