MeFi post: London from Above, at Night

Very nice pix - many thanks for posting. I'd like to see someone photograph The East End as it goes through a rebirth, but on the ground not from above.

We live just off Commercial Road near Stepney Tube. When I bought my flat here in 2001 this part of London was designated a deprived area and Stamp Tax on the purchase was waived.

I wanted to live in The East End not only because I'm frugal and this is a remarkably... [more]
posted to MetaFilter by Mutant at 3:41 AM on August 30, 2008

nudar -- "Shit I lived right round the corner from you, Mutant! Practically on the corner of Cambridge Heath and Mile End rds. "

Howdy Neighbour!! So when were you there? Did you ever go into The Blind Beggar pub? They used to have big pix of the Kray Twins all over the place, but now they're gone, the place seems to be trying to upscale or something. Another divey bar used to be The Grave Maurice on Whitechapel. Now they've become some... [more]
posted to MetaFilter by Mutant at 6:50 AM on August 31, 2008

MeFi post: Those markets? Well, it seems they work like they are supposed to ...

eriko -- "Compared to the book size? This is a bad joke. They're making a killing on 3B on bond sales, and they're getting slaughtered on some five *trillion* in bad loans."

Well, it's the trend that's you've gotta pay attention to. Whether or not it's sustainable is anyone's guess, but these big funds typically move only in response to perceptions of undervaluation, sometimes extreme.

In any case, we'll probably... [more]
posted to MetaFilter by Mutant at 4:55 AM on August 28, 2008

Good observations about current and projected business conditions and no, neither the data nor my personal opinion indicates it's all uphill from here. There could indeed be significant downside, but what's interesting is we're seeing a second wave of fund activity targeting US Housing.

And keep in mind that these funds move slowly. While it might take three months or so for them to raise $5B, they certainly won't be in a hurry to spend it. It will happen like... [more]
posted to MetaFilter by Mutant at 7:04 AM on August 28, 2008

MeFi post: Silly pencil pushers! You can't KILL Physics! What's that? Oh, physics *research*. You've won this round!

This is piss poor news.

In the early 80's, right after my undergraduate degree (Math & Computer Science) I went to work for Bell Labs, in Holmdel, New Jersey. It was a wonderful place to work.

Folks were encouraged to follow their own interest, to cross pollinate and learn about other disciplines. For example, my office mate was working on some advanced fibre optic switching stuff that they'd hoped might find some... [more]
posted to MetaFilter by Mutant at 5:32 AM on August 28, 2008

MeFi post: If information is power, then access is empowering

"...the essence of poverty is the assymetry of information..."

I found that to be a very intriguing, very captivating statement, one that I've actually thought about before this wonderfully link dense FPP. I think there is more to information, especially to asymmetrical information sets than just the obvious, the price of goods, the ease of ordering or arranging delivery.

A previous job had me... [more]
posted to MetaFilter by Mutant at 11:22 AM on August 27, 2008

MeFi post: Larry Summers lays it out for the next President

In terms of banking / economics not much substance in that article; I guess Summers saves his most insightful views for his employer, D. E. Shaw.

The banking regulatory stuff was very superficial, and almost deceptive due to overall gloss.

American banks have consistently resisted adopting Basel II, unlike their European counterparts. Last July US Regulators issued yet another guidance note on the implementation of Basel II,... [more]
posted to MetaFilter by Mutant at 12:56 AM on August 27, 2008

SeizeTheDay -- "I don't know about that. Seems that the major Brokers use Basel II when it's convenient, like right now when they calculate Tier 1 and Total Capital ratios. Every major broker in this country is SERIOUSLY underfunded, and yet they report the highest capital ratios of any broker or bank."

Yeh, good point about being underfunded but also reporting very high capital ratios. Currently regulators in the United States apply full... [more]
posted to MetaFilter by Mutant at 6:15 AM on August 27, 2008

kliuless -- "...if you didn't click thru..."

Oh I clicked through all right - took a while to read it and I had to reread it again - great stuff!

This -- "[T]hree factors contribute to Fed’s underachievement as regards macroeconomic stability. The first is institutional: the Fed is the least independent of the three central banks and, unlike the ECB and the BoE, has a regulatory and supervisory role ...... [more]
posted to MetaFilter by Mutant at 7:35 AM on August 27, 2008

MeFi post: "A national debt will be to us a national blessing." Alexander Hamilton, Secretary of Treasury,1780

Yeh, these things are confusing at times, since different organisations will look at this subject differently, but let's take a pass at clarifying how the fifty trillion or so in debt is structured.

Almost ten trillion dollars of this obligation consists of direct Federal Debt. Of that, about $5.4 trillion is held by the public , with another $4.2 trillion existing as Intragovernmental holdings (e.g., Veterans benefits, etc).... [more]
posted to MetaFilter by Mutant at 4:39 AM on August 26, 2008

bystander -- "Over time, the USD will lose its reserve currency status, in favour of the Euro and commodities (PPP based pricing really)."

Agreed. These will be relatively slow adjustments and we're seeing evidence of these changes taking place already.

For example, in 1999 the US Dollar accounting for some 70.9% of global currency reserves, with The Euro the next big player at 17.9%.

As... [more]
posted to MetaFilter by Mutant at 10:26 AM on August 26, 2008

Wow! I messed up that table far worse than I imagined possible ... but it's the thought that counts, eh?
posted to MetaFilter by Mutant at 10:26 AM on August 26, 2008

spicynuts -- "Maybe I misunderstand out of ignorance your use of the word debt here, but debt is not inherently a bad thing. Who did people get money from to start businesses or invent things or do research prior to debt? From their rich parents. Either that, or they got it from rich patrons, which is debt. Debt with the expectation of a big return is what enables regular people to do amazing things like start companies and invent/discover things or create art, isn't it? There is... [more]
posted to MetaFilter by Mutant at 11:24 AM on August 26, 2008

saulgoodman -- "... see, that's exactly why the value of all currencies should be pegged not to any commodity but to some more abstract but meaningful physical metric."

Well, we've already tried pretty much any commodity out there to back currencies, and all failed, some more spectacularly than others. For example, for thousands of years we did try gold as an alternative currency system, and it failed for various reasons. Silver before... [more]
posted to MetaFilter by Mutant at 11:53 AM on August 26, 2008

In response to an overnight emails - yes, we are seeing more parallels to the late 70's / early 80's - The Fed's Fisher warns on inflation, even as energy prices decline and The US economy slows.

So stagflation: above trend inflation, below trend economic growth and above trend unemployment. Although these things rarely (if ever) repeat themselves precisely. So we could see much higher inflation with slower economic growth (even contraction) all while unemployment... [more]
posted to MetaFilter by Mutant at 6:44 AM on August 27, 2008

MeFi post: The Material Girl is now a tangible investment

Back in the 80's I owned two art galleries in New York, so fine art as an alternative investment class didn't surprise me. Neither did diamonds or perhaps even guitars (the '42 index' tracking guitars has returned 31% per annum over the past 17 years. Not too shabby.

But the Madonna as an investment angle is very amusing. What was that expression about a fool and his money ...
posted to MetaFilter by Mutant at 2:51 AM on August 20, 2008

MeFi post: TSA security theater

TSA seems to be operate as though they are answerable to NOBODY.

I'm American and have lived in Europe for about eleven years. I work in banking, and depending upon the job I'm doing at the time, there have been years when I'm in and out of the US for meetings as often as several times a month. Business Class flight to New York, Chicago or Washington, stick around for one, maybe two days, and then home.

But there have been times when I... [more]
posted to MetaFilter by Mutant at 1:57 AM on August 20, 2008

MeFi post: No Echo from Echo

This is a really interesting FPP. I'm currently taking a year off to write my MBA dissertation, but during my course of study we got to work through (in the context of our classes) ideas for various businesses.

One concept that I pitchedfor a few of my classes was a low scale record label focused exclusively on live shows of pub bands.

If we look at bands that are capable of attracting, pretty consistently, 50 people or more to a show at a pub,... [more]
posted to MetaFilter by Mutant at 7:04 AM on August 19, 2008

I just put an early revision of my marketing plan up on the web.

While the numbers were ultimately tweaked somewhat from those in this copy (bands added each quarter instead of annually, etc), this document does give insight into how the business is supposed to work (much like saulgoodman's idea), presents a SWOT analysis, competitor analysis, overall review of the operating environment and lots of other background information.

I'll try to find... [more]
posted to MetaFilter by Mutant at 9:11 AM on August 19, 2008

MeFi post: It's the end of the world as we know it... lalala

You know one of the problem with predictions such as Roubini's is the system he's based in analysis on isn't stable; in fact it's constantly changing. In the case of the US Housing crisis we've seen The Fed react in unexpected ways, and with remarkable aclarity.

First of all, the tools that were always available - and used - by Central Bankers includeInterest ratesReserve requirementsCapital requirements Open Market OperationsThe Discount WindowLender of last... [more]
posted to MetaFilter by Mutant at 4:23 AM on August 17, 2008

pharm -- "Good grief. A simple google search for "nouriel roubini publications" brings up this page. You really didn't try very hard did you? More coffee required obviously."

Ha! No I didn't google him, but did look in Ahtens and SSRN (both academic publishing databases) - interesting he stopped publishing in 2004 and started pushing his work onto his own blog and website, and no longer submits to peer reviewed journals.... [more]
posted to MetaFilter by Mutant at 5:10 AM on August 17, 2008

diogenes -- "Why ignore the more informative year over year number?"

Yeh, granted, I wasn't ignoring, just couldn't find the publication I was looking for before (between making breakfast for Mrs Mutant and myself, and watching Olympics).

So, in terms of a US housing bottom, house prices in Cleveland fell some 37% from a high observed in September 2005 to an eleven year low seen March 2008 , before rebounding 18%... [more]
posted to MetaFilter by Mutant at 6:26 AM on August 17, 2008

Another source refuting overall collapse - the S&P/Case-Shiller data [.xls].

They don't go into as much detail as the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight data I presented earlier, and aggregate across Metropolitan Areas (e.g., the aggregate the Pacific Northwest in Seattle and don't, in this data set at least, break out Portland separately).

Their data is showing that for the broad, 20 Metropolitan Areas... [more]
posted to MetaFilter by Mutant at 6:55 AM on August 17, 2008

Labonte (2003) presents an interesting study of the US Housing Bubble, in particular priori bubbles.

Full citation:

Labronte, 2003, "U.S. Housing Prices: Is There a Bubble?", Labonte, M., , Analyst in Macroeconomics, Government and Finance Division, Special Report for Congress, Order Code RL31918.

In California, for example, prices spike about 75% in four years. They then... [more]
posted to MetaFilter by Mutant at 7:47 AM on August 17, 2008

pharm -- "To be fair to Roubini, I don't think he's ever predicted outright economic collapse. Tough times for some, sure, but not TEOTWAWKI.

I believe his current call is for there to be a recession in the US which counts as the worst since the Great Depression, but that things are not going to be as bad as they were then. That's no where near being TEOTWAWKI."

Fair enough, and I certainly don't want to appear to be... [more]
posted to MetaFilter by Mutant at 9:09 AM on August 17, 2008

yort -- "The only thing keeping the US out of recession is the absurdly low official inflation numbers and Pollyannas like you ..."

Wow! Mutant's are indeed powerful, but I had no idea!! Singlehandedly or am I working in some kind of group of superheroes? Ha!


But this -- "and the slightest revisions to previous GDP inputs will put us there, like how Q407 went into the... [more]
posted to MetaFilter by Mutant at 9:32 AM on August 17, 2008

SeizeTheDay -- "I wanted to stay out of this thread because I'd rather not write a 5 page diatribe, but Mutant, you've got to stop selling this as an indicator that the future is looking up. "

Ok, what peer review quantitative metric would you suggest we use?

When I first started working on a trading desk everyone "knew" the yield curve was an efficient predictor of recessions. Estrella put the... [more]
posted to MetaFilter by Mutant at 9:57 AM on August 17, 2008

yort -- "My vague chart above came from this WSJ blog post, from which:..."

Ah the charts were fine, just difficult to read especially so over the last, perhaps most significant term. If you've got the data underlying the chart that would be great. Otherwise no worries; I'll be at my Bloomberg in the AM and can research. Failing that I'm sure DataStream has the underlying information. I still don't see these series as... [more]
posted to MetaFilter by Mutant at 1:23 PM on August 17, 2008

SeizeTheDay -- "You're completely missing my point, which is that the ability to, with relative ease and low transaction cost, speculate in commodities while assuming that the world was decoupled (which is what happened in August of 2007), caused the yield curve to improperly be viewed as "normal".

Well, much of the recent events in the market - the last year or so anyway - was driven by big funds shorting banks and going long oil.... [more]
posted to MetaFilter by Mutant at 4:32 PM on August 17, 2008

pharm -- "Mutant: It's clear that all that risk management modelling effort that you talk about failed the banks completely this time around. It usually does of course, that's human nature! A bubble expands & no-one incorporates the possibility of the bubble deflating because it's a new! shiny! paradigm & everything in the garden is rosy. Bankers are just as prone to group-think as the rest of us."

Well, failed the banks... [more]
posted to MetaFilter by Mutant at 1:51 AM on August 18, 2008

"... but your seeming need to dominate the conversation, insistence that markets and macroeconomics cannot be seen through anything other than an extremely narrow (and imo debatable, but let's not go down that road) lens, coupled with a hypersensitivity to criticism is annoying, counter-productive and may be misleading many of the non-market types here to believe you're the one and only true authority on these matters. But as you yourself note, you are not: so why not try dropping... [more]
posted to MetaFilter by Mutant at 4:51 AM on August 18, 2008

pharm -- Unfortunately, I suspect that the banks would be very resistant to it & would almost certainly lobby to remove the restriction on their lending during the good times, which could last decades or more."

Yes, they most certainly would contest such proposals and lobby - vigorously would be an understatement - against any such a requirement.

I'm willing to bet that if Basel II were extended to require regulatory... [more]
posted to MetaFilter by Mutant at 11:49 AM on August 18, 2008

bookie -- "Mea culpa for the crankiness. Full moon, long weekend, zero sleep."

No worries bookie and upon reflection I am without a doubt a tad bit too chatty in these threads, but in my defense I'll just say I'm not working, my Kats won't talk finance to me, I don't watch no TV and I'm looking for diversions to keep me from writing my dissertation.

So its MetaFilters fault I am the way I am.... [more]
posted to MetaFilter by Mutant at 1:53 AM on August 19, 2008

MeFi post: Most countries treat tourists better than citizens

Well folks I have to admit that when I crafted the FPP I was more interested in the "Five Flags" theory, or how some people are structuring their personal affairs to minimise government meddling.

Originating and maintaining citizenship in one (perhaps more) country while living in a second, generating money in a third, parking assets in a forth and selecting a fifth nation for the bulk of your leisure time - the Five Flags - is intellectually appealing to me... [more]
posted to MetaFilter by Mutant at 3:23 AM on August 11, 2008

MeFi post: Veri Angry

Interesting article - many thanks.

I teach finance part time at the Masters level at a fully accredited University in London, and we get a lot of Americans who do a term or even year abroad. For them there's an lesson to be learned in our grading - the University is aware of grade inflation in the US and we simply do not import it.

For example, a passing grade in a course is 50% - not sure about the letter equivalent - and... [more]
posted to MetaFilter by Mutant at 8:28 AM on August 5, 2008

MeFi post: insert extremely clever title here

The list does indeed have a bunch of strange choices and, as feya_lamb points out, some puzzling omissions. FWIW, when I took my MBA one of our case studies was on Anita Roddick and The Body Shop - an incredibly solid business. Roddick's did enough in her life to warrant a dozen biographies, and not just for her very impressive corporate activities. Keep in mind before she stepped up to the plate very few folks in The West knew - let alone cared - for fair trade with developing nations.... [more]
posted to MetaFilter by Mutant at 3:55 AM on August 2, 2008

infini -- "...and I believe her children did not inherit that wealth..."

Yeh, I started out as a dirt poor country boy and because I work in banking have come to know many wealthy people - even one billionaire - and I've got maximum respect for those who decide not to leave the bulk of their wealth to their children.

Back in New York I got to know a couple of trust fund kids that ran with our... [more]
posted to MetaFilter by Mutant at 5:10 AM on August 2, 2008

infini -- "What about the impact of the highest recorded trade deficit ever, China's serious concerns about the trillion or so invested in Freddie and Fannie and minor details like Merrill Lynch taking more money from Singapore?"

Well, its all about relative performance. You know that old expression - "when America catches a cold, [INSERT COUNTRY NAME HERE] catches pneumonia" - look at the history of finance for... [more]
posted to MetaFilter by Mutant at 3:48 AM on August 3, 2008

Gross and the others are talking short term, tactical asset allocations to maximise returns over the horizon. Gross himself was bearish, very, very negative on the US for maybe two years and just flipped his view about one month ago. This view could shift very rapidly should another August debacle arise, perhaps in a different market than $LIBOR.

I've haven't read Zakaria's book myself, but looking at the synopsis on Amazon (not the most rigorous way to assimilate a... [more]
posted to MetaFilter by Mutant at 4:54 AM on August 3, 2008

MeFi post: Unusual Public Offering

Wow, interesting concept but all of this seems to have been for naught.

It's been a long time since I've gone through the US Series Seven material, but central to understanding what the SEC does is the fact that they exist to protect the general public. Before the SEC this type of stuff went on all the time, and it was very, very difficult for the retail investor to operate in the stock market, to pick good securities from questionable schemes.... [more]
posted to MetaFilter by Mutant at 2:57 AM on August 3, 2008

MeFi post: Rolex watches for Allied POWs

I'm not surprised to read this - Rolex is a very unique company in many ways.

Hans Wilsdorf, a German watch maker, founded a predecessor firm in London in the early 1900's. Their business was integrating other peoples watch movements into cases they constructed themselves.

After a few years due to England's high taxes on exports of jewelry, they relocated to Switzerland and setup shop under the name Rolex, which, as far... [more]
posted to MetaFilter by Mutant at 2:29 AM on August 1, 2008

MeFi post: Let's Step Outside

I haven't see The Dark Knight yet, and skipped the Bourne movies as I don't care for spy stuff, but I'd suggest the movies I've seen recently have more realistic fight scenes than ever.

This is just my opinion of course, but it's downright unnatural for two people to trade blows for three or four minutes. Just doesn't happen. Usually one either gets lucky or overpowers the other early on, and then its game over.... [more]
posted to MetaFilter by Mutant at 7:51 AM on July 29, 2008

MeFi post: Good governance 2.0

Curious, but I didn't see anything regarding finance on that list. This is especially interesting as there is lots of industry chatter recently regarding lack of process / exceptions being made in certain areas that many of us working in the field believe may come back to bite these folks on the ass later.

I'll just put one example on the table (there are more, many more that I'm aware of), and note that while it presents an example of not only lax... [more]
posted to MetaFilter by Mutant at 6:30 AM on July 29, 2008

MeFi post: Do you really know who people are?

They seem to have some data integration issues; I looked up a few acquaintances from The Old Days and one who served a conviction of manslaughter (pleaded down from murder one) isn't present in their system, and neither is another acquaintance currently residing in Elmira. On the other hand, several incidents that I have first hand knowledge of appear to have been changed - a violent assault / conviction now shows up as "other" with few details about the actual event.... [more]
posted to MetaFilter by Mutant at 1:37 AM on July 25, 2008

MeFi post: I want my five dollars back?

Ah very interesting site.

Curious that they selected five dollars as their reference point, as we know that there are roughly one billion people living on one dollar a day or less [.pdf]. And the same source shows that an alarming forty percent of the planet's population lives on two dollars a day or less!

Still an interesting experiment though - thanks for posting.
posted to MetaFilter by Mutant at 1:55 AM on July 23, 2008

MeFi post: It's the Pew News IQ... Comin' right at you...

9/12, 76%, I'm American but have lived in Europe since 1997 so questions about US politics tripped me up somewhat.

I have to say though only two finance questions doesn't impress me at all. Especially so considering events of the past year. And the Dow? The S&P 500 is far more representative of the overall stock market (and future prospects of the American economy) than the rather narrowly focused Dow.

Regardless, any... [more]
posted to MetaFilter by Mutant at 5:08 AM on July 19, 2008

Sys Rq -- "Yeah, like I'm about to memorize a number that's constantly fluctuating and only affects my life once in a blue moon. YES bank employees should know them. YES stock brokers should know them. Joe Schmoe? When I need to know, I'll look them up."

Ok I can't cite any data reflecting base rate changes that isn't behind a payfor firewall, and I try very hard to avoid linking to such sources on Metafilter as I like to help folks... [more]
posted to MetaFilter by Mutant at 12:02 PM on July 19, 2008

Sys Rq -- "That, mutant, is what I was responding to. How often do you think people evaluate loans or seek out "savings products"? It doesn't come up very often, I can assure you. Less often than the prime rate changes."

Ok, I try not to post opinion regarding finance on Metafilter. So, like my comment above, I'll post data supporting my argument; the difference being my comments won't represent what I... [more]
posted to MetaFilter by Mutant at 3:12 PM on July 19, 2008

Sys Rq -- "I haven't overlooked that at all. I've merely implied that that is how people think of bankers because that is how banks market themselves. "

Yeh, marketing is an interesting point to raise. But every industry markets itself, the public image is somewhat different to the reality, and banking is no different. So once again, we revert to the point that knowledge of the basics - interest rates, the rate of... [more]
posted to MetaFilter by Mutant at 5:08 AM on July 20, 2008

MeFi post: Investors can still afford stones

rakish_yet_centered -- "Does this apply to ETFs? Or is Brazil past this? I'm thinking of EWZ."

Well, ETFs - or Exchange Traded Funds - are collective investment vehicles sold in the United States. So while the vehicle itself certainly won't be corrupt and you as an investor won't have any problems wrt getting what you've paid for (your interests are protected by the SEC), the managers of such funds may,... [more]
posted to MetaFilter by Mutant at 1:22 AM on July 18, 2008

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