Does anyone actually call T. Boone "Thomas"?
posted to MetaFilter by mullacc at 5:07 PM on November 20, 2008

I'll be in town Thurs-Sat, but leaving early on Sunday.
posted to MetaTalk by mullacc at 1:51 PM on November 20, 2008

Which is to say that Friday at Revival is fine with me.
posted to MetaTalk by mullacc at 1:56 PM on November 20, 2008

Calm down. Just about every first year analyst goes through this. They all put on a show of confidence after training is over, but I bet at least half of your analyst class is shitting their pants too. The truth is that most analysts take a good chunk of their first year to really grasp LBO and DCF models. And some take even longer--that's why private equity firms give basic LBO modeling tests when they interview 2nd year i-banking analysts. Staffers and senior bankers know many first year... [more]
posted to Ask Metafilter by mullacc at 10:26 PM on November 19, 2008

Fuck the heck.
posted to MetaFilter by mullacc at 11:02 AM on November 18, 2008

I'm sorry, but this gem from tkchrist absolutely needs to be on the sidebar.

The reason so many people took notice of the "I'm sorry..." lead in is that it's a blatant disregard for MeTa culture. Proper style dictates that you write your request and/or question in the form of a snide put-down that calls into question the motives and competence of the moderators.

This would've been... [more]
posted to MetaTalk by mullacc at 4:14 PM on November 12, 2008

The SIVs you've likely heard about accessed the ABCP market. Conduit/warehouse facilities involved in the origination/accumulation of financial assets also issue ABCP.

For example, many mortgage and specialty finance (auto, small/med business lenders, equipment leasing, credit card) companies set up "conduit" or "warehouse" facilities which finance the initial funding of new loans. These warehouse facilities get their funding via the ABCP... [more]
posted to Ask Metafilter by mullacc at 8:09 AM on November 12, 2008 marked best answer

I'm looking at a list of the top ABCP issuers and the assets are almost all ABS/CDOs, trade receivables, auto loans, credit card receivables and mortgages.

These structures only work when the asset has a set of cash flows associated with it. Accounts receivable work because it's indistinguishable from a short-term loan. Mortgages, credit cards, auto loans are all cash streams. A factory can be valuable collateral, but not a very useful one in an ABCP structure that is... [more]
posted to Ask Metafilter by mullacc at 10:17 AM on November 12, 2008 marked best answer

The Larry Sanders Show will change your life.
posted to Ask Metafilter by mullacc at 5:39 PM on November 11, 2008

Slacks are really underrated. Also: trousers.
posted to MetaTalk by mullacc at 11:23 AM on November 10, 2008

Some people I used to work with who I thought were wearing Hermes ties were actually wearing Vineyard Vines ties sometimes. Similar look (but trending to the more whimsical) and less expensive. They're not my style so I can't attest to the quality, but they definitely fooled me.

This article says John Kerry switched from Hermes to Vineyard Vines.... [more]
posted to Ask Metafilter by mullacc at 12:55 PM on November 5, 2008

Did any of those soccer ball victims get hurt? I hope so, goddamnit.
posted to MetaFilter by mullacc at 2:44 PM on November 4, 2008

The other category is a grab bag, but I'd guess the biggest chunk of it in the last couple years is leveraged loan CDOs--that is, corporate loans issued as part of a leveraged buyout, leveraged acquisition or dividend recap. It would also include small business loan pools, commercial real estate CDOs and probably other odd stuff like utility companies securitizing future rate increases (dunno what that's called exactly).

As for the credit card ABS market...I don't... [more]
posted to Ask Metafilter by mullacc at 2:25 PM on October 24, 2008 marked best answer

Are those credit-card debt products tranched and insured and re-insured with credit-default swaps like the mortgage-backed securites are?

I focused on insurance in the form credit default swaps above. But card ABS are also insured (or "wrapped" in the jargon) the traditional way by financial guarantors like MBIA and FGIC.
posted to Ask Metafilter by mullacc at 2:50 PM on October 24, 2008

If Obama succeeds in taking moderates, the evangelical and talk radio wings will only be stronger.

This is one of those outcomes that people seem to predict for just about any scenario. If Obama wins, it will make the hard right feel victimized and angry and they'll rally behind that. If McCain wins, the hard right will feel emboldened because they delivered the votes. It becomes a meaningless prediction.
posted to MetaFilter by mullacc at 9:30 AM on October 24, 2008

4. encouraged my ideas and innovations, 5. accepted my individuality, 6. let me joke around at work, 7. employed co-workers who were fun and weren't gaming the system

I think criteria 4-7 are commonly found in jobs where people are passionate about what they're doing. From what I've read, it sounds like professional chefs enjoy an atmosphere like this. Same with a tech start-up. But chefs and tech entrepreneurs work a ton of hours and deal with a lot... [more]
posted to Ask Metafilter by mullacc at 4:24 PM on October 23, 2008

What I don’t understand is the pure speculative aspects of them. Was defaulting on bonds fairly common? If not, it doesn’t seem like it would be a good market for speculative CDS purchasers – it would be akin to buying long-shot lottery tickets.

CDS attract speculative players because you can trade them--when the market's expectation of default increases, the price of the CDS increases. Here are some charts showing the price of protection on MS, LEH... [more]
posted to Ask Metafilter by mullacc at 8:09 AM on October 22, 2008

Seems like a relatively crappy investment.

If you buy CDS for the purpose of speculating on the reference bond and you hold it through maturity but it never defaults, then it was a pretty crappy investment. But that's not really a flaw in the structure--it's a flaw in investment decision making.

But aren't they different in that they expire and have no underlying asset?

Since CDS... [more]
posted to Ask Metafilter by mullacc at 9:19 AM on October 22, 2008

PEITD
posted to MetaFilter by mullacc at 9:13 PM on October 21, 2008

matteo said: ...and I find the various non-Americans here rooting for Obama quite endearing in their cluelessness.

What does this mean? I can't come up with an interpretation that makes much sense.
posted to MetaFilter by mullacc at 9:12 AM on October 20, 2008

Just keep coming in at 9:30. The morning people are fascists and we must resist.
posted to Ask Metafilter by mullacc at 11:56 AM on October 17, 2008

But instead of saying something similar, she said "oh, okay well call me later if you're still up for it."

Many people think it's rude or demeaning to offer money to people (especially friends) who haven't asked for it. Money's a sensitive subject. If you had asked for the favor, I'm willing to bet she would've been happy to help.

On the other hand, holding a grudge against someone for not offering something you... [more]
posted to Ask Metafilter by mullacc at 10:19 AM on October 17, 2008

Suppose those investments that he made were necessary to keep his business competitive (i.e., he didn't just buy himself a truck to drive himself to & from work).

I'm not an s-corp tax expert and what I'm about to say is just a high-level corporate finance perspective...

The kind of reinvestments you're talking about are capital expenditures. Let's say Joe buys some machinery for a metal shop*, those machines become... [more]
posted to Ask Metafilter by mullacc at 11:30 AM on October 16, 2008

uh, on (lack of) preview what everyone else said. Bah.
posted to Ask Metafilter by mullacc at 11:32 AM on October 16, 2008

So does anyone have a link that explains in relatively plain English what Krugman's work on trade was about? That Bloomberg article doesn't offer much

Did you already see the Krugman post on Marginal Revolution?
posted to MetaFilter by mullacc at 11:00 AM on October 13, 2008

Paul Krugman's "informal explanation of what I got you-know-what for."
posted to MetaFilter by mullacc at 10:03 AM on October 16, 2008

Across the Curve for good insider-y credit market commentary written by an ex-trader. It's heavy on jargon, but it's worthwhile if you can get through it (coincidentally, the top entry on the blog right now is about his use of jargon and he encourages readers to email him questions).
posted to Ask Metafilter by mullacc at 9:25 PM on October 9, 2008

I don't understand why you frame this as collateral damage from "subprime". Iceland has been in some major shit for some time now (link from 2006). The global financial crisis has certainly accelerated and intensified the situation in Iceland, but linking this directly to "subprime" is just lazy.
posted to MetaFilter by mullacc at 9:14 PM on October 7, 2008

Here are some data points from the Manheim used auto index.

As others have expressed, we need more input--how much of a discount are you expecting? What are you trying to buy? I'd guess that whatever you look at to judge economic reality is not the same thing a user car dealer considers. It may just be a matter of patience.
posted to Ask Metafilter by mullacc at 7:33 AM on October 7, 2008

When I was into Guitar Wolf, I also loved Teengenerate and the Registrators.
posted to Ask Metafilter by mullacc at 7:16 AM on October 2, 2008

A guy that decided as late as 2007 that the housing market was overinflated is consitered a financial genius on Wall Street?

Plenty of investors lost their shirts betting against the housing and MBS markets starting back in '04, '05 and '06. Just like plenty of investors lost their shirts betting against the tech boom in '98 and '99. Shorting stocks and other securities that continue to rise is an incredibly expensive proposition.
posted to MetaFilter by mullacc at 10:57 AM on September 26, 2008

Not too shabby for a year's worth of work legalized robbery

Anyone interested in how short-sellers really operate should read David Einhorn's recent book, Fooling Some of the People All of the Time, about his six year battle with Allied Capital, one of his short targets. It's a really fascinating blow-by-blow account of the whole process.... [more]
posted to MetaFilter by mullacc at 12:52 PM on September 26, 2008

Prosper publishes performance data on their website.

You can play with the dates, but be careful when you're looking at more recent months as loans need to season for a bit to show comparable trends. And what you really need is static pool curves by origination vintage, which don't seem to be available. But based on my quick scan (and some experience looking at similar data for various consumer finance companies), I don't think these look very attractive. Even if you... [more]
posted to Ask Metafilter by mullacc at 9:37 PM on September 25, 2008

Apparently JPMorgan is paying $1.9 billion for the assets (all? not clear) and deposits and some of the other obligations. I assume the $1.9 billion will be used to pay off equity and bondholders, but it obviously won't be nearly enough.

$1.9b paid to the FDIC. And it's just the bank subsidiary assets/liabilities, not the holding company. What, you aren't on the conference call? Presentation/webcast here.... [more]
posted to MetaFilter by mullacc at 6:42 PM on September 25, 2008

I guess that means that TPG, who invested in WaMu a few months ago, will take a total loss.

That's the amazing part to me. TPG, heretofore the most successful of the big buyout shops, put in $2 billion in April and got paid $50 million to arrange a syndicate that put in another $5 billion (including other "smart" money players like Wellington). I don't know if any private equity firm has seen so much money go to zero so quickly.... [more]
posted to MetaFilter by mullacc at 6:51 PM on September 25, 2008

So even if the FDIC had failed, had WaMu not been able to be sold off, then "regular folk" accounts would still be safe? What are the other processes by which accounts are protected?

The FDIC put out this letter today.

Relevant quotes:

The fund's current balance is $45 billion – but that figure is not static...

Moreover, if needed, the FDIC has... [more]
posted to MetaFilter by mullacc at 6:54 PM on September 25, 2008

The FDIC put out this letter today.

Er, THIS letter.
posted to MetaFilter by mullacc at 6:57 PM on September 25, 2008

smackfu: I can't answer your question generally. But JPMorgan has been hot and cold on a WaMu acquisitions for a couple years. WaMu was seen as JPM's way to get into the big west coast markets and take on Wells Fargo. JPM had mergers talks with WaMu back in January and WaMu has also been shopping itself for a couple weeks now. On the conference call, Jamie Dimon said, and I'm paraphrasing here, that they've spent as much time or more on this WaMu acquisition as they have on any other deal.
posted to MetaFilter by mullacc at 7:26 PM on September 25, 2008

According to this WSJ article:

"At 8:30 this morning, Senator Obama called Senator McCain to ask him if he would join in issuing a joint statement outlining their shared principles and conditions for the Treasury proposal and urging Congress and the White House to act in a bipartisan manner to pass such a proposal," Mr. Burton said in an email to reporters. "At 2:30 this afternoon, Senator McCain returned Senator Obama's call and agreed to join him in... [more]
posted to MetaFilter by mullacc at 12:33 PM on September 24, 2008

Ahem. IRC.
posted to Ask Metafilter by mullacc at 3:01 PM on September 19, 2008

She shook her head and asked "Don't they have actuaries?"

Yes, except when you're measuring credit risk, they're called "rating agencies." And they fucking suck.
posted to MetaFilter by mullacc at 11:52 AM on September 19, 2008

Not just CDSs and counterpart bullshit, but everything from corporate liability insurance to your car insurance.

It's not clear to me how an AIG failure would have affected insurance policyholders. Most of the traditional insurance policies (i.e., the P&C stuff, not the CDS contracts) are written out of subsidiaries, which are regulated at the state level. Unless individual state regulators decided to allow AIG to let capital flow back to the... [more]
posted to MetaFilter by mullacc at 9:17 PM on September 16, 2008

Back during the Bear Stearns collapse I advocated on another website that any bailouts of investment banks should be at the very least linked to new regulative legislation.

I agree with this sentiment, but it would be hard (maybe impossible?) to balance the need for quick and decisive intervention by the Fed/Treasury and the desire to craft effective legislation to bring about new regulations. Certainly new legislation will be forthcoming but it's... [more]
posted to MetaFilter by mullacc at 12:00 PM on September 17, 2008

Thank you mister market!

FWIW, the cutesy 'Mr. Market' stuff originates from Ben Graham's Intelligent Investor, considered by many to be the most important book on investing.
posted to MetaFilter by mullacc at 7:07 PM on September 17, 2008

[Gold..gold...blah blah blah]...And I do agree that stocking up on ammunition and MREs is a prudent move. Picking up some spare water filters is another sharp play.

And also gold. Because in the new world The Ron Paul demands idols cast in his likeness. AND THEY BETTER BE GOLD, BOY.
posted to MetaFilter by mullacc at 7:41 AM on September 19, 2008

I don't know if GS has the same solvency problems that Bear Stearns, Lehman Bros, Merrill Lynch, and holy fuck am I really typing this list?

GS has termed out most of its debt, so it's a bit of a different scenario than Lehman and even MS. I am not your portfolio manager. I am not long GS.

In its best years it was able to earn $15B+, but earning $15B on over one trillion of liabilities... [more]
posted to Ask Metafilter by mullacc at 9:30 PM on September 18, 2008

Yes.
posted to Ask Metafilter by mullacc at 10:11 AM on September 17, 2008

Gerhard Richter is his dad!
posted to MetaTalk by mullacc at 12:43 PM on September 16, 2008

Wall St. is scary, in-your-face, flag-waving conservative

Avoid this specific type of generalization. I know from experience that it's untrue. Finance types may generally support free enterprise, but that hardly disqualifies someone from the U.S. definition of liberal. Also see: Bob Rubin, Jon Corzine, George Soros, Warren Buffett, etc. More broadly, don't assume someone's occupation defines their politics.
posted to Ask Metafilter by mullacc at 1:02 PM on September 9, 2008

I hope they worked donks into the honeymoon somehow. Either kind.
posted to MetaTalk by mullacc at 10:52 PM on September 7, 2008