I will pay good money not to have this thread be about...

Man, if only I could securitize the income from what people will pay money to have threads not be about.

I was astonished to find that the story about CDSs and the credit crisis as I learned it from MeFi threads was correct.
posted to MetaFilter by a robot made out of meat at 10:57 AM on October 6, 2008

Paulson needs to deploy the stock injection, and deploy it hard.

FWIW, stock injection will take away value from any stocks that you own that get injected into. Better than zero from a bankruptcy...

Irony: my spendthrift friends were totally right. Saving money was a losing proposition relative to buying consumer goods. An ipod would have held its value better than VEU.
posted to MetaFilter by a robot made out of meat at 5:08 AM on October 7, 2008

The problem to me is that it requires the thief be able to boot the thing. I'll take my whole-disk-encryption.
posted to MetaFilter by a robot made out of meat at 4:57 PM on October 3, 2008

I think that the consensus here is wrong, and that McCain is right. Never thought that I'd type that.

Both candidates are spending significant time prepping for the debate. Right now congress and the administration are hashing out major legislation (adding up to 7% to the national debt) which will hand over major powers and responsibilities largely to whomever is elected in November. It makes much more sense for them to be in DC full time this week representing their... [more]
posted to MetaFilter by a robot made out of meat at 1:37 PM on September 24, 2008

Re: Rick Davis NYT article
Is the McCain campaign's assertion (that Davis since 2006 has been effectively divorced from the firm) correct? It's a pretty bold assertion if untrue.
posted to MetaFilter by a robot made out of meat at 2:44 PM on September 24, 2008

To be fair, Rick Davis, although he still has a title, surrendered complete control of the campaign quite some time ago. His stated reason IIRC was (as soon as Obama became viable) that he didn't want to do what a campaign against Obama would 'have' to do (presumably Willie Horton), and that he would resign if Obama won.

There's not much firing left to do. What a parting gift to Obama though.
posted to MetaFilter by a robot made out of meat at 10:38 AM on September 25, 2008

Drink on "Change." All that will be needed.
posted to MetaFilter by a robot made out of meat at 10:36 AM on September 26, 2008

McCain is perceived as rude, which is the worst thing you can be in the South.

I'm pretty sure my grandfather in TN would say that the worst thing that you can be in the South is a negro.
posted to MetaFilter by a robot made out of meat at 3:49 PM on September 26, 2008

What were the polls like at this point in 2004? I'm scared to get optimistic, because isn't this how we all felt 4 years ago? Will someone please convince me that things are different this time?

electoral-vote.com has a handy "this day in 2004" button. They also allow you to download their batch of 2004 polling. election-projection had something similar, but they want money now. IIRC he's GOP and therefore won't be getting any from me.
posted to MetaFilter by a robot made out of meat at 7:16 PM on September 27, 2008

You mean there's an actual clip of her being unable to name one supreme court case other than Roe v Wade and the press won't release it?

It's pure economics. You can air all ten stupid things that she said in one show and get good ratings, or you can trickle those out one at a time (mixed with normal stuff for 'balance') and get good ratings for 20 shows.

She couldn't think of Miranda? Rumsfeld? Bush v Gore? As an abortion... [more]
posted to MetaFilter by a robot made out of meat at 11:02 AM on September 30, 2008

Actually, after 2PM it takes a 20% drop of DJIA to trigger a NYSE halt. We're at 5.6% right now.
posted to MetaFilter by a robot made out of meat at 12:53 PM on September 29, 2008

Sorry, 2:30PM.
posted to MetaFilter by a robot made out of meat at 12:54 PM on September 29, 2008

If you were going to ship 30-odd tanks or dangerous chemicals or whatever through waters rife with piracy, wouldn't you hire an escort?
posted to MetaFilter by a robot made out of meat at 9:34 AM on September 29, 2008

Meatbomb: I'm sorry if I'm doing this wrong, but I think that the scary implication is supposed to be radiation or chemical weapons.
posted to MetaFilter by a robot made out of meat at 10:10 AM on September 29, 2008

That is, we need to have our precious research dollars given out via a peer-reviewed process, overseen by other experts in the field -- not by some congressman sticking in an earmark for the university in his state.

While I think that this is generally true, I don't think that it's beyond the pale for Congress to set very specific priorities for scientific projects which intersect with policy goals. In this case, EPA and National... [more]
posted to MetaFilter by a robot made out of meat at 7:15 AM on September 29, 2008

Also, the "crab sex" money is actually for NOAA studying how to prevent overfishing of crab stocks, since they are an economically important species. Not absurd on its face, and again something that might not be on the scientific agenda but is relevant from a policy perspective. I could also see the merit in letting NOAA decide where to allocate money.

Is JM's still a hypocrite, but federal money for fisheries isn't so nuts.... [more]
posted to MetaFilter by a robot made out of meat at 7:49 AM on September 29, 2008

I should learn to make bigger comments.

Also, the reason that a zero-earmark design doesn't work is that it leaves too much leeway to the Administration. This administration loves to abuse power and place ninnies in charge, so I could see someone along the lines of Brownie doing a worse job of allocating money. It's funny that the standard I checked Palin against was "not absurd on its face," that that just seems right in politics.
posted to MetaFilter by a robot made out of meat at 7:54 AM on September 29, 2008

Cashman: check out this nifty graph. Out of about $1.2T the military and national security gets about $800B.
posted to MetaFilter by a robot made out of meat at 9:20 AM on September 29, 2008

This has caused me to ignore amazon.com ratings from here on out. Thank you.
posted to MetaFilter by a robot made out of meat at 7:21 PM on September 27, 2008

What a droll commentary on public policy and moral hazard. Bravo!
posted to MetaFilter by a robot made out of meat at 6:50 AM on September 23, 2008

What about the portion of the population that didn't leap into the obviously inflated market and buy a house that they couldn't afford? Would we get to buy a house for 50% off as well? Or would we have to continue renting while the less financially responsible get rewarded for their recklessness?

If the idea was to reduce the mortgage by a largish fraction of the lost property value, they wouldn't be getting rewarded so much as not completely destroyed.... [more]
posted to MetaFilter by a robot made out of meat at 9:16 AM on September 23, 2008

I think that Ashlar was saying that the plan as I described it would selectively do nothing for the people who bought their property outright (but were not selling a comparable property) during the asset bubble. Their net worth would be much less, especially if they have to sell their home soon. I don't know that first-time all-cash homebuyers during the bubble who need to sell soon are a very big population.
posted to MetaFilter by a robot made out of meat at 9:44 AM on September 26, 2008

Astronomy is the most humbling science. By virtue of being free from the need to be economically useful, astronomers can spend their time looking for stuff that they have no hope of ever understanding. That's excellent for the psyche of us all in a Lovecraftian way.

Biologist: I just learned what this protein does! Hubris++
Physicist: Awesome, I can explain the magnetic properties of this material! Hubris+=3
Mathematician: QED, mofo!... [more]
posted to MetaFilter by a robot made out of meat at 7:10 AM on September 26, 2008

Aw man, national assets just went down by several thousand pairs of pants.
posted to MetaFilter by a robot made out of meat at 8:55 AM on September 25, 2008

I wonder if that was completely impromptu. Does there exist somewhere a piece of paper with his outline?

• Palin alright
  
• Obama mama not
  
  • slept with black man
    
  • white/black pairs equiv. sloozy
    
  • Father sucks
    • Father quarter robot
      
    • Father alcoholic
      
    • Father african
      
    • Unknown number of wives
• insane gibberish

posted to MetaFilter by a robot made out of meat at 6:21 PM on September 24, 2008

It's gonna be so great when one of his parishioners tries to run for office and has to explain it all. I'm bookmarking this.

Just watch Palin get protected from witches. The preacher notes how important it is for christians to take over the banking sector from "Israelites", and that afterward we won't have the corruption and problems we have now. I doubt the Obama campaign will do anything with this, since it will trigger the "bad... [more]
posted to MetaFilter by a robot made out of meat at 8:46 AM on September 25, 2008

Yes, it's a good blog, but 538's been FPPd already, and talked about in most of the election threads.
posted to MetaFilter by a robot made out of meat at 2:05 PM on September 24, 2008

Article 1 Section 9. It would be pretty awesome if Congress passed the "Whatever, it's just Canada" resolution.
posted to MetaFilter by a robot made out of meat at 9:50 AM on September 24, 2008

I'm a robot made out of meat, and I approve this SLYT.
posted to MetaFilter by a robot made out of meat at 9:48 AM on September 23, 2008

To education the public indeed.
posted to MetaFilter by a robot made out of meat at 5:10 AM on September 23, 2008

Mutant: don't most of these arbitrage games find and eliminate pricing inefficiencies? Isn't that good for the rest of the economy that wants to use the otherwise inefficiently priced assets? I could see the gain to everyone else of having corn priced 1/10^6 better be less than the money extracted by traders, but I don't know.
posted to MetaFilter by a robot made out of meat at 7:09 AM on September 22, 2008

I learned this reading style out of necessity when slogging through lexis dumps in the mid 90's.

I probably wouldn't have become a skimmer if 90% of the text available in my education had not been complete crap.
posted to MetaFilter by a robot made out of meat at 3:18 PM on September 20, 2008

DU: They don't do health insurance.
posted to MetaFilter by a robot made out of meat at 11:15 AM on September 19, 2008

I remember explaining to Ms. Vegetable that CDS don't require the buyers to own the underlying asset, and how little reserve was required to sell them. She shook her head and asked "Don't they have actuaries?"
posted to MetaFilter by a robot made out of meat at 11:22 AM on September 19, 2008

clevershark: I think a better analogy would be to send defaults from dumb-ass prosper.com loans. In the letter add that you have no idea what due diligence is but need only $1M, so it should be a no-brainer.
posted to MetaFilter by a robot made out of meat at 11:42 AM on September 19, 2008

Commodities Future Modernization Act which started this ... I tried to look into its legislative history, and as best I can tell it was rolled into the budget during conference on H.R.4577 by Sen. Gramm. He's the only one who said a word about it in debate (Page S11856). It was never actually voted on, since the senate approved the conference report by unanimous consent. So rarely is there just one person to blame.

At that conference committee, Sen Byrd is... [more]
posted to MetaFilter by a robot made out of meat at 1:31 PM on September 19, 2008

The problem with the wait and do stuff approach is that they used the password reset weakness to get access, so the next time palin tries to read her email she notices.

At first I thought "just like /b/, what fail" but now I see it as pure amazing troll win. What would get the pulse and sweat going on GOP die-hards? Hack the newb-who's-probably-been-breaking-the-law's email. What would get the same going on liberal America so hard that it strokes out? Don't... [more]
posted to MetaFilter by a robot made out of meat at 12:22 PM on September 17, 2008

Pantengliopoli: Their simulation methodology is a little complex.

From a weighted average of the polls in each state, there is a baseline for that state.

Next, if you look at the demographics of a given state (say, OH) you can that its polling tends to move with states "like it" (such as MI, PA) more than states not "like it" (such as AL, GA, OR). You can also see how its polling tends to move with the national polling.... [more]
posted to MetaFilter by a robot made out of meat at 10:55 AM on September 15, 2008

Artw: Contrary to Nate's inclination, they aren't in any way adjusting for the convention bounce. The sims went from 70-odd% Obama to high-50s% McCain in a week. Nate himself thinks that you need to wait a bit before polls become believable again. If you look at the electorally-significant states, the polls haven't been too bad for Obama. It's the national trackers which have driven a great deal of the swing.
posted to MetaFilter by a robot made out of meat at 11:35 AM on September 15, 2008

If it helps, there are factors which polling doesn't do a good job of catching. For example, in NC democrats have gained 160,000 in voter registration over republicans. That's probably not going to win NC (their BOE has obsessive and easy to access numbers, which is why I used them), but there are similar results in closer states. Most pollsters also use a likely-voter model, which Obama's ground game hopes to change (ie, get turnout among youth, minorities).
posted to MetaFilter by a robot made out of meat at 12:20 PM on September 15, 2008

Oh, and that 160,000 is since January.
posted to MetaFilter by a robot made out of meat at 12:21 PM on September 15, 2008

Just like a /b/tard, not getting all the data off before announcing. Someone competent would have never announced this until control of gov.sarah could be parlayed to compromise gov.palin, and a tarball of everything put on a server in Indonesia.
posted to MetaFilter by a robot made out of meat at 11:12 AM on September 17, 2008

Questions for FinEcon people:
1) should I avoid the side of the street with the Citigroup building on it?
2) I'm a vegetarian for ethical reasons. a) If I come upon fresh killed banker, would it be inconsistent of me to take some home for my cat? b) Do I need to worry about barbiturates in the meat, or can I cook those off?
3) At how many stories fall is a Rolex 50% likely to survive?
posted to MetaFilter by a robot made out of meat at 4:48 AM on September 15, 2008

However, I think an intelligent argument could be made that the expectation of a Fed bail-out is part of the problem

They're trying to avoid moral hazard by wiping out the shareholders. FRE got a bailout, but the common stock investors in FRE are screwed. AIG is 80% owned by the federal reserve now, and if I understand correctly they will get paid before stock investors. Investors in Bear Stearns got a little less destroyed.... [more]
posted to MetaFilter by a robot made out of meat at 7:28 AM on September 17, 2008

This, all this. When crude is $120-140 then Russia can do what it wants. When it's $90 less. On NPR they said there's a floor somewhere around $75 because at that point the more expensive new production starts to turn off. A few weeks ago people were saying it could go to $200.

Also hilarious: the DRILL BABY DRILL morons are going to have trouble finding explorers who want to do that drilling now.
posted to MetaFilter by a robot made out of meat at 6:57 AM on September 17, 2008

I'm kind of hesitant to take financial information from a site who's header is "News - Analysis - Conspiracies"
posted to MetaFilter by a robot made out of meat at 7:04 AM on September 17, 2008

I know some people at A Major Insurance Firm who do nothing but enterprise risk -- the kind of singular events that collapse tens of billions of dollars and could send the largest firms out of business. People know about this and take it seriously.
posted to MetaFilter by a robot made out of meat at 4:31 PM on September 16, 2008

Scoll down doesn't work (for me) but the google cache does.

A technical ~askme is possible. I know about R, stata, linux, SGE, perl, and many other technical issues. The other day I was having a really hard time because I had to make something work in python and HOW IS STATEMENT FORMED WHY NO MATCH?!
posted to MetaFilter by a robot made out of meat at 8:00 AM on September 15, 2008

I'm remembering that scene from Becket where he declares lord so-and-so excommunicated. I imagine something similar for expertsexchange at google. The robes, the monks, everything.

Larry Page: Experts Exchange, seized upon the bot of the Holy Googlecorp and unlawfully did serve it misleading pages. Furthermore, in the presence of Experts Exchange, and by its command, its servers seized upon the short attention span of the user and demanded money. This is the sin of... [more]
posted to MetaFilter by a robot made out of meat at 8:19 AM on September 15, 2008

These videos are exactly what I expected. Except that someone was smoking it more than once.
posted to MetaFilter by a robot made out of meat at 4:45 PM on September 14, 2008