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Bush narrowly defeats Gore by 26 electors and 0.1 percent of the popular vote.
November 6, 2000 10:56 AM   Subscribe

Bush narrowly defeats Gore by 26 electors and 0.1 percent of the popular vote. That's the average of 14 predictions in the Washington Post. I thought it would be interesting to see how MetaFilter's pundits fare in predicting the Electoral Count and popular vote, so I'm offering a bribe ...
posted by rcade (71 comments total)

 
... a Fray T-shirt and Devil Doll to the person who most closely predicts the Electoral Vote and Popular Vote in tomorrow's election for Bush, Gore, Nader and a fourth category -- "Buchanan and others."
posted by rcade at 10:58 AM on November 6, 2000


If you'd like to go with the folks on the Washington Post, they predicted this:

Bush: 48.0 percent and 282 electoral votes
Gore: 47.9 percent and 256 electoral votes
Nader: 4.4 percent
Buchanan and Others: 1.8 percent

Predictions must be made on Monday. Offer not valid in St. Augustine, Florida.

posted by rcade at 11:03 AM on November 6, 2000


Nader in a landslide
posted by snakey at 11:05 AM on November 6, 2000


Bush: 43.3%

Gore: 47.7%

Nader: 7.3%

Buchanan and Others: 1.7%
posted by gleemax at 11:14 AM on November 6, 2000


You can't win without an electoral vote prediction too, Gleemax.

My prediction from St. Augustine, Florida: Bush 272, Gore 266, popular vote Bush 48.5, Gore 46.5, Nader 3, Buchanan and Others 2. I'm violating the separation of church and state by praying that this doesn't happen, but I feel like Bush is going to win Tuesday.
posted by rcade at 11:17 AM on November 6, 2000


We have pundits on Mefi? I thought it was a bunch of howler monkeys. ;)

And I'm sorry, but Mary Matalin? Peggy Noonan? These aren't pundits, they're Republican hired guns. Note that I don't know who the Democratic hired guns are in that list, but it's funny that both the Repubs "objectively" pick a Bush landslide.
posted by solistrato at 11:27 AM on November 6, 2000


I did a whole detailed breakdown of my prediction here, but the short of it is:

Popular:

Bush 49%
Gore 47%
Nader 4%

Electoral:

Gore 273
Bush 265

Gore wins.
posted by kevincmurphy at 11:28 AM on November 6, 2000


Bush 280 - 51.6
Gore 252 - 40.4
Nader - 8.5
Others - 1.5
posted by tiaka at 11:31 AM on November 6, 2000


Sorry.

Bush: 263
Gore: 275

Bush: 43.3%
Gore: 47.7%
Nader: 7.3%
Buchanan and Others: 1.7%
posted by gleemax at 11:32 AM on November 6, 2000


Solistrato: Bill Kristol is also a hard-core conservative, but he predicts a Gore victory. I haven't paid much attention to the guy on TV, but he seems to be a sky-is-falling kind of guy.
posted by rcade at 11:41 AM on November 6, 2000


Bush 43.4%
Gore 46.3%
Nader 6.8%
Others 1.2%

Hey, wait a sec. I'm wearing my Fray shirt right now. Oh well, another one can't hurt.
posted by Succa at 11:48 AM on November 6, 2000


I'll play.
Gore:  47.2%  282
Bush:  46.6%  256
Nader:  4.5%  0
Others: 1.7% 0
What the hell, I can't be more wrong than I was two years ago ...
posted by dhartung at 12:00 PM on November 6, 2000


I'll place my bet with Ben Stein's prediction, cuz he's really smart...

Bush 50% (280)
Gore 45% (258)
Nader 4%
Others 1%
posted by dandot at 12:01 PM on November 6, 2000


Gore: 47.2%
Bush: 46.8%
Nader: 4.4%
Others: 1.6%

Gore: 282
Bush: 256
posted by Mo Nickels at 12:04 PM on November 6, 2000


Bush: 45.6%
Gore: 47.9%
Nader: 5.2%
Buchanan et al: 1.3%

Bush: 257
Gore: 281

"Election 2000: Where Being Poked in the Eyes With Burning Sticks Sounds Pretty Good"


posted by Skot at 12:06 PM on November 6, 2000


Oops, forgot something...

Gore 278
Bush 260
posted by Succa at 12:11 PM on November 6, 2000


Gore 47.2, Bush 47.0, Nader 3.9%, Others 1.9%.

EVs: Gore, 296, Bush 242.

Added predictions:

Despite apparent closeness, election over early in the night, as Florida, Pennsylvania and Michigan are all Eastern time, and Gore carries all 3, all but assuring victory.

Some more predictions: House all but tied, with Bernie Sanders giving the Dems the right to organize.

Dems: 217
Dem-leaning independent: 1
Reps: 216
Rep-leading independent: 1


Senate: after election 49 D, 51 R, but Republicans get one more when Lieberman's seat is handed over to a Republican appointee.

posted by MattD at 12:11 PM on November 6, 2000


Bush 47% - 260
Gore 46% - 288

What the heck - And I'll also predict a democratic Senate!
posted by kokogiak at 12:12 PM on November 6, 2000


Generally close popular vote, but I'm calling a 1980 style electoral landslide.

Bush- 49%
Bore...um..Gore-45%
posted by Biergen at 12:26 PM on November 6, 2000


Sounds like fun -- I will go the pessimist route:

Bush 48% -- 287
Gore 45% -- 251
Nader 4% -- 0
Other 3% -- 0

Dems retake House, Senate 51-49 Republican.



posted by norm at 12:27 PM on November 6, 2000


Media leans Dem, People vote Rep (this year, see Reagan '80)
Bush 48.1%
Gore 44.9%
Nader 5.8%
Bucky/others 1.2%

Electoral
Bush 288
gore 250
posted by mcehlers at 12:46 PM on November 6, 2000


Popular:

Bush 47.1%
Gore 46.8%
Nader 3.5%
Buchanan 0.9%
Other 0.7%

Electoral:

Bush 268
Gore 270
Other 0

(I'm predicting Gore gets 1 e.v. from ME, Bush gets 3 e.v.
from ME)
posted by UrineSoakedRube at 12:55 PM on November 6, 2000


The media can say all they want about this being a "down to the wire" race, I think it's just wishful thinking on their part. Most polls are showing Bush with a narrow lead but keep in mind, polls historically have underestimated Republican strength. I think Bush is actually ahead by much more than people think. The GOP turnout is going to be HUGE, can't say the same about Gore's base.
Some may question me now, but here's my prediction:

Bush 51%--346
Gore 44%--192
Nader 4%--0
Other 1%--0
Republicans retain control of both the House and Senate.
posted by NDow at 12:59 PM on November 6, 2000


(considering foriegn real estate)
posted by brian at 1:18 PM on November 6, 2000


Bush: 47.7 percent and 289 electoral votes

Gore: 45.6 percent and 249 electoral votes

Nader: 5.2 percent

Buchanan and Others: 1.5 percent
posted by Mick at 1:22 PM on November 6, 2000


Gore: 47.4 percent and 337 electoral votes
Bush: 45.8 percent and 201 electoral votes
Nader: 5.2 percent
Buchanan and Others: 1.5 percent
posted by luke at 1:22 PM on November 6, 2000


Bush: 63% and 330 electoral votes
Gore: 32% and 208 electoral votes

Nader: 5%
posted by djones at 1:27 PM on November 6, 2000


Bush - 263 47.4%
Gore - 275 46.6%
Nader - 5.2%
Other < 1%

Rupublicans will then stage a bid to popularize election voting and rid the country of the electorial college for future elections. This issue will win them control of the presidency, the senate and the house in 2004. In 2008 there will no longer be a Republican party and a coalation between the Democrats and the Reform (after Gov. Ventura runs fro Senate) party will control Congress.
posted by DragonBoy at 1:33 PM on November 6, 2000


I'm just really scared that djones might be the closest one... sigh.
posted by kokogiak at 1:37 PM on November 6, 2000


Bush 281 Elec - 47.3%
Gore 257 Elec - 45.6%
Nader 0 Elec - 6% Pop.(Hope he gets this high, it seems this year it could actually be possible.)
posted by smcbride at 1:55 PM on November 6, 2000


Gore - 273 - 46.5%
Bush - 265 - 47.9%
Nader - 0 - 4.7%
others - 0 - 0.9%

posted by youhas at 2:02 PM on November 6, 2000


Hell of an idea.

Bush:................49%----304
Gore:................45%----234
Nader:................5%
Buchanan et al:..1%
posted by CRS at 2:30 PM on November 6, 2000


My prediction? Due to complete and total voter apathy, there will be only 3 votes cast- Nader votes for himself, Gore votes for himself, and Bush - oops! - votes for Gore, thus resulting in a Gore victory.

Gore - 66.6%
Bush - 0%
Nader - 33.3%

And since I'm sure the powers that be would have no clue how to distriute the electoral vote in this case, they'll just give them all to Gore.

Gore - 538

There it is.. and remember, you heard it here first.
posted by zempf at 2:33 PM on November 6, 2000


Gore - 269 - 47.1%
Bush - 269 - 48.3%
Nader - 0 - 3.5%
others - 0 - 1.1%

Tie game!

posted by sylloge at 2:37 PM on November 6, 2000


Bush-292- 51.5
Gore-246- 45.0
Nader-0- 3
Other-0- .5

Clinton in NY,
Corzine in NJ,
House 210 Rep, 213 Dem
Senate 53 Rep, 47 Dem
St. Louis/Minnesota Tennessee/Oakland
Rams/Titans Super Bowl
Lakers/Blazers 76ers/Magic
Lakers/Magic


Note: Do not take too seriously. Fan of none of the above. Politicians included.
posted by brent at 2:53 PM on November 6, 2000


Gore - 48% - 304
Bush - 44.5% - 234
Nader - 6.2%
Others - 1.3%

Perhaps this is merely wishful thinking on my part. I've really no idea how to go about this all scientific like.

But dammit I want that Devil Doll!!
posted by aladfar at 2:57 PM on November 6, 2000


LaRouche is taking it all the way.
posted by dogwelder at 2:59 PM on November 6, 2000


bush 265
gore 273
nader 5.3%
buchanon et al 0.9%
posted by sarahs at 3:06 PM on November 6, 2000


I predict Gore wins the Electoral vote 275 and loses the popular vote by 0.1%
posted by Jimbo at 3:19 PM on November 6, 2000


I forgot...Hillary will win in NY. Nader will get 2% of the popular vote.
posted by Jimbo at 3:22 PM on November 6, 2000


From the UK:

Bush - 47.2% - 262
Gore - 46.4% - 276
Nader - 4.8%
Others - 1.6%

Fun fun fun.
posted by holgate at 3:57 PM on November 6, 2000



Gore: 49.4 percent and 282 electoral votes
Bush: 47.9 percent and 256 electoral votes
Nader: 3.0 percent
Buchanan and Others: 1.8 percent

posted by gluechunk at 4:12 PM on November 6, 2000


Bush - 51%
Gore - 42%
Nader - 6%
Buchanan - 1%

with Bush winning 330 electoral votes (the ones that
matter)
posted by jbunch at 4:33 PM on November 6, 2000


Oh what the hell... If I win, I'll wear that Fray shirt in absolute shame.

Bush - 48.2% (293)
Gore - 45.8% (245)
Nader - 4.6%
Other - 1.3%

Gore blames Nader for the loss, but it's too late as the newly organized progressivist juggernaut rolls the Ventura / Biafra ticket to victory in '04!
posted by chicobangs at 4:44 PM on November 6, 2000


Run away Nader victory.

posted by lagado at 5:23 PM on November 6, 2000


Wait, my numbers add up to 105% or so.
My new numbers:

Gore: 48.4 percent and 282 electoral votes
Bush: 47.9 percent and 256 electoral votes
Nader: 3.0 percent
Buchanan and Others: 0.7 percent

posted by gluechunk at 5:42 PM on November 6, 2000


Bush - 277 (48%)
Gore - 261 (47%)
Nader - 0 (3%)
Browne - 0 (1%)
Buchanan - 0 (<1%)

Dems take the house, Republicans 52-48 in the Senate

In 2004, Third Parties will have a chance, as Ventura's Independence Party is planning a presidential campaign for that year, and have suggested men such as John Anderson, Lowell Weicker, Ventura, Bradley and Hines as possible candidates, all of whom would have broad-based support for a moderate but progressive bloc of socially-liberal and economically-conservative voters.

And, of course, if Colin ran, he'd win automatically. Powell is the man.

Kevs
posted by Kevs at 5:54 PM on November 6, 2000


Gore - 46% - 296
Bush - 46.5% - 242
Nader - 6.5%
Others - 1%

posted by mathowie at 6:29 PM on November 6, 2000


Bush -- 48% -- 283
Gore -- 45% -- 255
Nader -- 5%
Others -- 2%
posted by johnb at 6:59 PM on November 6, 2000


Bush 49.8% 301
Gore 44.5% 237
Nader 4.2%
Others 1.3%
Mickey Mouse .2
Generalissimo Francisco Franco 0


posted by RedBushes at 7:44 PM on November 6, 2000


Bush-- 51.5% 380 electoral votes
Gore-- 44.2% 155 electoral votes
Nader-- 3.1% 0 votes
Others-- 1.2%

This will be an early night. Republicans will retain control of the U.S. Senate 53-47 and House 220-216 with 3
independents.

posted by y2kpony at 7:51 PM on November 6, 2000


Bush 47.4% -Bush 268
Gore 46.6% -Gore 270
Nader 3.8%
Others 2.2%
posted by jay at 8:12 PM on November 6, 2000


Just give me the prize. Thats my damned vote.
posted by sinsurgent at 8:22 PM on November 6, 2000


Bush: 271 votes/ 46% popular
Gore: 269 votes/ 43% popular
Nader: o votes/ 4 % popular
Buchanan: 0 votes/ 1% popular

Green Party atkes a hold of house and senate, and marks America's Communist Revolution
posted by publius123 at 8:23 PM on November 6, 2000


Bush 288 49%
Gore 250 45%
Nader 4.2%
Others 1.8%

R's keep Senate and House. Remember Trafficant(D-OH) votes R on January 3 to help R's keep control
posted by bernerjc at 9:08 PM on November 6, 2000


Popular Vote:

Gore: 44,982,177 (43.795%)
Bush: 46,828,562 (45.593%)


Electoral Votes:

Gore: 273
Bush: 265

I have been tracking the popular vote/electoral vote splits for the past three weeks. It was a pet project of one of my professor (who is also a TV pollster). He dropped out half way through the semester. I kept on crunching the numbers. These numbers are true as of NOV 7.12:26 AM EST.

The projection model had no less than 5 "tie" scenarios. I will post the url of the website after the election. I have insecurites about my psychic abilities.
posted by tamim at 9:28 PM on November 6, 2000


I'll play. I agree that the Republicans tend to poll low, but not as low as they used to (in the 80s) since the activist era of taking over schoolboards etc. I think the most notable thing about Nader is that his candidacy will make sure the Dems get out to vote, where they might have held their nose before. My count includes PA and FL to Gore, with OR and WI.

Bush - 47.4 254 EV
Gore - 46.9 284 EV
Nader - 4.6
Others - 1.1
posted by mikel at 9:31 PM on November 6, 2000


Bush -- 45%
Gore -- 46%
Nader -- 6%
Others -- 3%


posted by sugarfish at 9:42 PM on November 6, 2000


I predict most of us will look like fools tomorrow night.

Bush — 268, 47.5%
Gore — 270, 45.5%
Nader — 0, 6.4%
Others — 0, 1.2%

That popular winner, electoral loser thing everybody’s been talking about.
posted by capt.crackpipe at 10:16 PM on November 6, 2000


Woah! I just saw John Zogby (of the Zogby polling firm, duh) say, “Nader... could get as close as ten [percent].” Which is strange considering his most recent poll shows Nader at four.

Ah, screw um. These things are always slanted against third parties.
posted by capt.crackpipe at 10:40 PM on November 6, 2000


i almost hope the "popular winner, electoral loser thing" happens. i'd love to see the nation rise up in protest and abolish the electoral college.

but i'm not holding my breath that anyone but me cares that much. much like i'm not holding my breath that i'll be anything but very disappointed tomorrow.
posted by Sapphireblue at 10:46 PM on November 6, 2000


If we have a PV-EV split, the EV winner gets to be the president. But God forbid, we have a tie in EV, then the house gets to decide who our next president will be. And house will vote according to States, casting only 50 votes. Let's just hope, for the sake of sanity, someone wins the EV.

Zogby is right when he says Nader might get upto 10% of the national PV. There are tons of votes "unaccounted for" in all the projection models. I personally think that Nader will max out at 7%. What will happen if he fails to get 5% while taking down Gore with him?
posted by tamim at 10:53 PM on November 6, 2000


Sapphireblue -- I would be overjoyed if we had popular/electoral split (because it would build pressure to get rid of the electoral college, adopt instant runoff voting, and so on).

I heard somewhere that the odds of that happening is 20%. tamim, what does your model say about the probability of a "split" scenario in general?

Presumably a lot depends on whether Gore takes Florida...any guesses?
posted by johnb at 11:03 PM on November 6, 2000


I figured he’d take Florida (prescription drugs and snr. citizens) but lose Minnesota (indie voter streak tilting state to Bush).
posted by capt.crackpipe at 11:06 PM on November 6, 2000


One other thing. Some astrologist (salt anyone? I've got salt here.) predicts whomever wins the election will be assassinated before leaving office.

It had something to do with being elected in a year ending in zero and a rising fire sign. Or some such horse pucky.
posted by capt.crackpipe at 11:23 PM on November 6, 2000


My model predicts a 1/3 probability of EV/PV split, which is really high. In those situations when EV/PV is split, Gore wins the EV (Presidency) 83.3% of the times. (The data of Bush winning EV in an EV/PV split is right now out dated. The trend has shifted towards Gore on this one.)




posted by tamim at 11:42 PM on November 6, 2000


Just another tidbit, accroding to the data of Oct 12 (which is now obsolete), Gore was winning the presidency by a margin of 4500 popular votes. If 2400 voters in Nevada voted for Bush, Gore would've lost the election (and 4 EV of Nevada).

Some times the projection models are more exciting than real elections. Gore has not been close in popular votes in a very long while. This scares me.
posted by tamim at 11:47 PM on November 6, 2000


Is there still time? (yeah, polls just opened here in Ohio, but I'd love to see the projected winners with 0.0002% of the votes cast...)

Anyways, Bush 45.6% 264, Gore 46.5% 274, Nader 5.6%, Buchanan & Hagelin and others 2.3%, Notre Dame 31, Boston College 17 (Go Irish!).


posted by Avogadro at 5:08 AM on November 7, 2000


The thing about the polling which tends to exclude Nader is the way that they select who is called a "likely voter." One important factor in this decision is if the person voted in the last three elections; thus, no one under 30 is a "likely voter" according to the pollsters.
posted by donkeymon at 8:21 AM on November 7, 2000


No predictions, but I've got a tenner on Gore.

Very frustrating of all you Americans to have your election in the middle of the night.
posted by Mocata at 2:02 PM on November 7, 2000


We can nearly settle this here bet. There’s only a few possibilities left.


EV
(Gore taking Oregon and Florida)
Gore 292
Bush 246

(Splitting states, Gore taking Oregon listed first)
Gore 267
Bush 271

Gore 285
Bush 253

(Bush sweeping up)
Gore 260
Bush 278


PV:
Gore 49%
Bush 48%
Nader 3%
Other 0%


Sources: Yahoo (AP), MSNBC, CNN
posted by capt.crackpipe at 10:58 PM on November 8, 2000


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