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November 13, 2004 6:16 AM   Subscribe

Which Major League pitchers should we have expected no-hit games from who didn't deliver? Who statistically didn't deserve one but has one? A fascinating demonstration of baseball stats in action, whether you're a sports fan, a math fan, or just want to know how things like this work for the sake of future conversation. via our own yerfatma at sportsfilter.
posted by Mayor Curley (29 comments total)
 
Neat stuff. Baseball is such a joy for the lover of minutiae. Recently caught myself (over)explaining to a friend (probably sorry he asked) how a "knuckle-curve" works and thought to myself - "It's November and I'm talking this crap - I love baseball". Yea yea, get a life, I know.
posted by jalexei at 7:03 AM on November 13, 2004


Woah. Nolan Ryan had seven friggin' no-hitters? I mean, I knew he was a God, but that's incredible.
posted by Civil_Disobedient at 7:13 AM on November 13, 2004


As much as I love the game of baseball, stats fetish is one of the aspects I like least about it. This is an excellent example of a useless stat. To look at the numbers, only Walter Johnson, Tom Seaver and Jim Palmer came within .2 of matching their actual to ther expected no-hitters. Everyone else was significantly over or under.

I still believe in the magic of the game that allows for a no-hitter by Doc Gooden when he was well past his prime, while he never got one in his overpowering younger days. Also, Nolan Ryan shows that pitiching a no-no is as more a matter of mental will than it is of chance. That's the sort of thing that statistics can't approach to explain.
posted by psmealey at 7:22 AM on November 13, 2004


Oh, and I just wanted to add, I disagree with his sentiment that Pedro Martinez "deserves" a no-hitter because he had 9 but the game went to extra innings. While some stats apply to the individual, others are generated by the team. Look at RBI's, for example -- you could be on a bum team and get plenty of hits but no RBI's.

No-hitters / perfect games are accomplished with extreme talent (and sometimes a bit of luck), but can also be characterized as extremely bad hitting on the part of the opposing team. On "hitters teams" like Murderer's Row, or the Big Red Machine, or even the Sox in recent years, you just don't get no-hitters against them. Looked at another way: you may have a great pitcher, but if your team can't get a single run off the other team, then no "no-hitter."
posted by Civil_Disobedient at 7:27 AM on November 13, 2004




I love this stuff, too. On the "Who has one but doesn't deserve it" I jumped out of my chair to say "Mike
Witt's Perfect Game!," but somehow it didn't make the list.
posted by planetkyoto at 7:40 AM on November 13, 2004


Baseball is such a joy for the lover of minutiae.

I haven't been "into" baseball since 1986 (when the Astros blew it all over the place in the LCS against the Mets), until this summer when the Astros went on their hot streak. I was amazed at how many stats the broadcasters now keep track of. Number of pitches, pitcher vs. particular batter stats, etc etc. Back in the olden days it was all we could do to keep track of K's. I was also amazed at how pitching has changed in the last 18 years. It seems starters pitch less than 7 innings far more often now, and I can't tell you how many games I saw this summer where both teams had at least 4 different pitchers in one game. Wild, crazy stuff, and a good post.

/me misses JR Richard. He was cut down in his prime.
posted by WolfDaddy at 7:44 AM on November 13, 2004


While some stats apply to the individual, others are generated by the team.

Good point, C_D. That would lead to an entirely new level of those statistics: what were the team batting averages of those that had no-hitters thrown at them? If Nolan Ryan pitched against a team like, say, The Bad News Bears, he'd have a no-hitter every day.

p.s. Anyone interested in the wonderfully arcane world of baseball statistics should read the chapter on Bill James in Moneyball.
posted by LeLiLo at 7:50 AM on November 13, 2004


From PrinceValium's link::

That said, I do believe Ryan belongs in the Hall of Fame, because he won 324 games and he did a lot of things that nobody else has done, or likely will do. A Hall of Fame without Ryan would be like a lake without water.

I'm glad he mentions this. This got me to Googling, and I found this interesting article on the holder of "Fastest Baseball Pitcher". I thought Nolan Ryan held the title, but apparently Randy Johnson beat him this year at 102 mph. Go Unit!
posted by Civil_Disobedient at 8:00 AM on November 13, 2004


This is fantastic stuff; thanks for pointing it out. I've always liked Neyer's take, but not enough to pay for it, now that he's off of ESPN's free content.

You know, there's a lot of this stuff to be had on pay sites like Baseball Prospectus. But some of the most interesting analysis happens of baseball fan message boards. It's often difficult to find, because on all message boards the signal-to-noise ratio is rather high, but here's one on the effects of aging on catchers, from a prominent Red Sox message board that's really wonderful, and the link is worth a look if you like this style of thinking and writing about baseball.

Also, wolfdaddy: If we Red Sox fans could recover from '86 (I know, I know, it sounds pithy given the current context, but still... ), then so can you.
posted by .kobayashi. at 8:09 AM on November 13, 2004


I haven't been "into" baseball since 1986 (when the Astros blew it all over the place in the LCS against the Mets). . . I was amazed at how many stats the broadcasters now keep track of.

Me too, WolfDaddy, except for me it was 1980, when the Phillies beat the Astros (sorry) in what still (despite this year) has to be the greatest league championship series ever — four extra-inning games in a row, and the Phils in the last game (against Nolan Ryan, no less), scoring 5 runs in the 8th to send it into extra innings. And then the World Series win over Kansas City, first one ever for the Phils, after 98 years!

I figured nothing could top that, but this summer a friend got my kid interested in the Red Sox. Before long, we were checking players and statistics on the Internet, and I was astounded at what gets tracked now. GIDP, IBB, OPS, SecA, TPA, AGS, BIPA, DIPS ERA, Hld, PFR, and my favorite, WHIP. (All explained here.)

p.s. For the Red Sox fans reading this — the 1980 NL batting champion? Bill Buckner, of course, then with the Cubs.
posted by LeLiLo at 8:15 AM on November 13, 2004




The Pirates won the game, 2-0, although Ellis walked eight batters. It was the highpoint in the baseball career of one of the finer pitchers of his time, and arguably,one of the greatest achievements in the history of sports.

I absolutely agree.
posted by psmealey at 8:48 AM on November 13, 2004


Another Ellis note:

He supposedly coined the term "no-no".

Too high to actually pronounce "no-hitter," he turned to a teammate and babbled "Hey, look, I’ve got a no-no going!"
posted by titanshiny at 8:58 AM on November 13, 2004


.kobayashi. & lelilo: I've learned not to bemoan the fate of Houston teams too loudly, as I often get drowned out by the wails of Chicago and Boston residents ... if not threatened with outright bodily harm ;-)
posted by WolfDaddy at 10:20 AM on November 13, 2004


Ha! I immediately thought of Sid Fernandez and Sam McDowell for the first question and I wasn't far off. McDowell didn't have the career he should have because of his struggles with alcoholism. I don't know what happened to Fernandez, although I believe he does hold the record for the fattest ass in MLB history.
posted by TimeFactor at 11:47 AM on November 13, 2004


As a fellow? ableit ex-Houstonian, I wholeheartedly agree with your sentiment regarding JR Richard. He and Don Wilson were my favorites. Each sadly cut down as young men.
posted by damnitkage at 11:58 AM on November 13, 2004


I don't know what happened to Fernandez, although I believe he does hold the record for the fattest ass in MLB history.

Is that official? Does El Sid edge out Cecil Fielder and Kirby Puckett in that category?
posted by psmealey at 12:25 PM on November 13, 2004


Thanks for the J.R. Richard reminder, wolfie. I remember that incident and Thurman Munson's death (both of which happened not long after my paternal grandparent's deaths), were my earliest harbingers that sports heroes were as mortal as the rest of us.
posted by jonmc at 1:21 PM on November 13, 2004


Is that official? Does El Sid edge out Cecil Fielder and Kirby Puckett in that category?

Aren't you forgetting Boog Powell?
posted by jonmc at 1:26 PM on November 13, 2004


Baseball is dead. The competitive imbalance in baseball is beyond atrocious. The only reason a team like the Twins can even struggle into the playoffs (to lose again) is because they're in weak division.

/rant of bitter jays fan.
posted by The God Complex at 1:30 PM on November 13, 2004


Memories of J.R. Richard...

I spent a few years of my childhood in the Astrobuddies, the Astros' youth program. It gave kids some discounts of tickets, and the occasional instructional clinic or chance to meet some of the players and get autographs after games.

My pride and joy autograph was from Richard, and to this day when I hear Randy Johnson being described as imposing I smile to myself and remember just how big J.R. - all 6'8" of him - looked to me as I meekly held out the picture I wanted him to sign. But he was super nice to us kids, and I left with a serious case of hero worship.

It sure would have been nice to watch the 1980 season, when the Astros got Nolan Ryan, if Richard had been healthy, but by that time he was already suffering from the precursors to his career ending stroke. Imagine how much fun opposing hitters would have had playing a series against Houston and getting to face the fireballs of Richard and Ryan, offset for the sake of variety with knuckleballer Joe "Nail file? What nail file?" Niekro .

Sigh. Good memories.
posted by John Smallberries at 1:37 PM on November 13, 2004


I was in the Astrosbuddies too! My hero was Terry Puhl, who I got to play catch with for about 5 minutes.

Remember the $2 seats way up high in the 'dome? Sigh, those were the days.
posted by WolfDaddy at 2:09 PM on November 13, 2004


Uh, Terry Puhl, that is.
posted by WolfDaddy at 2:10 PM on November 13, 2004


The competitive imbalance in baseball is beyond atrocious.

This could have been written at almost any point in the last hundred years.
posted by yerfatma at 2:58 PM on November 13, 2004


Sid Fernandez may not have had the fattest ass in absolute terms but in relation to the rest of his body (as measured by proportional ass fatness or PAF) he really has no challengers.
posted by TimeFactor at 3:00 PM on November 13, 2004


This could have been written at almost any point in the last hundred years.

The 80s and early 90s were far better for that sort of thing, much as they were in most major sports.
posted by The God Complex at 3:00 PM on November 13, 2004


At least you have baseball!

/rant of bitter Expos fan.

I wonder how many of those 57 no-hitters were against teams with winning records or better than league average OBP.
posted by ?! at 8:07 PM on November 13, 2004


The 80s and early 90s were far better for that sort of thing, much as they were in most major sports.

Can you quantify that? If it is true, it's a fluctuation like anything else. If all you mean is "My team won once" or "The Yankees weren't that good," that's a different story.
posted by yerfatma at 11:37 AM on November 14, 2004


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