Mr Lotto
August 23, 2006 10:00 AM Subscribe
When your horoscope isn't enough.
Ever wonder how sophisticated New Yorkers can afford to live well in such an expensive city?
They have a system.
Ever wonder how sophisticated New Yorkers can afford to live well in such an expensive city?
They have a system.
Growing up in Upstate New York, I always wondered why EVERY lottery winner was from Brooklyn. Now I know.
posted by elmwood at 10:12 AM on August 23, 2006
posted by elmwood at 10:12 AM on August 23, 2006
Complete idiocy... that's the point, right?
posted by rockabilly_pete at 10:25 AM on August 23, 2006
posted by rockabilly_pete at 10:25 AM on August 23, 2006
The lotto is stupid-tax: The dumber you are, the more you pay.
posted by crunchyk9 at 10:27 AM on August 23, 2006
posted by crunchyk9 at 10:27 AM on August 23, 2006
Actually the reason New Yorkers can afford to live in New York is that they make more money than you.
posted by clevershark at 11:16 AM on August 23, 2006
posted by clevershark at 11:16 AM on August 23, 2006
I knew someone who's father and uncles played the pick 3 lottery here in Texas. They had a system. The father, he would sit for hours working out numbers. He would fill in graph paper with numbers, many lines of them stacked down the page. This was his hobby, and it seemed to bring him some kind of peace.
He won alot, the jackpots are small but he won enough where it seemed like his "system" worked. Perhaps it is just not hard to win...
I think religious belief in these "systems" is pretty common... it depends on the culture, though.
posted by LoopSouth at 11:38 AM on August 23, 2006
He won alot, the jackpots are small but he won enough where it seemed like his "system" worked. Perhaps it is just not hard to win...
I think religious belief in these "systems" is pretty common... it depends on the culture, though.
posted by LoopSouth at 11:38 AM on August 23, 2006
Hey, this coin I've been flipping came up heads the last nine times... I'd best bet my life savings that it'll be tails the next time, as clearly the chances of it being heads 10 times in a row are 1000-to-1 against!
You'd be amazed at the silliness. I know a semi-famous guy, some of you have heard of him, a self-made multi-millionaire, that truly believes has a foolproof roulette system where he counts the number of times red/black comes up in a row, and bets accordingly. I mean, he really really believes the "math" of it.
posted by frogan at 11:39 AM on August 23, 2006
You'd be amazed at the silliness. I know a semi-famous guy, some of you have heard of him, a self-made multi-millionaire, that truly believes has a foolproof roulette system where he counts the number of times red/black comes up in a row, and bets accordingly. I mean, he really really believes the "math" of it.
posted by frogan at 11:39 AM on August 23, 2006
where he counts the number of times red/black comes up in a row, and bets accordingly.
a martingale?
posted by sonofsamiam at 11:40 AM on August 23, 2006
a martingale?
posted by sonofsamiam at 11:40 AM on August 23, 2006
a martingale?
I had never heard that term before, but yes, it's a combination of a martingale and "it's been red six times now ... the odds of it being red again must be astronomical! Time to bet black!"
And somewhere, a pit boss gets his wings...
posted by frogan at 11:57 AM on August 23, 2006
I had never heard that term before, but yes, it's a combination of a martingale and "it's been red six times now ... the odds of it being red again must be astronomical! Time to bet black!"
And somewhere, a pit boss gets his wings...
posted by frogan at 11:57 AM on August 23, 2006
Everyone who comes up with the martingale thinks they invented it, and if you describe it right, it's hard to see where the logical flaw is.
posted by sonofsamiam at 12:01 PM on August 23, 2006
posted by sonofsamiam at 12:01 PM on August 23, 2006
Actually the reason New Yorkers can afford to live in New York is that they make more money than you.
Eh, some do. But other reasons include: their parents give them money, they have roommates, public transport is cheaper than owning a car, they live more frugally than you. There are many rich folks in New York, but even more poor ones.
posted by dame at 12:02 PM on August 23, 2006
Eh, some do. But other reasons include: their parents give them money, they have roommates, public transport is cheaper than owning a car, they live more frugally than you. There are many rich folks in New York, but even more poor ones.
posted by dame at 12:02 PM on August 23, 2006
You know what just kills me. Most everyone says that the lottery is tax for stupid people, or for people who can't do math. And then one of those stupid people wins millions of dollars.
See, were I one of those stupid people with millions of dollars, I'd start to wonder who was stupider.
posted by illiad at 12:15 PM on August 23, 2006
See, were I one of those stupid people with millions of dollars, I'd start to wonder who was stupider.
posted by illiad at 12:15 PM on August 23, 2006
And then one of those stupid people wins millions of dollars.
Yeah. One of them does. Average him in with all the millions of losers and you've still got a group you don't want to be a part of. But let's look at that winner: what happens then?
posted by George_Spiggott at 12:25 PM on August 23, 2006
Yeah. One of them does. Average him in with all the millions of losers and you've still got a group you don't want to be a part of. But let's look at that winner: what happens then?
posted by George_Spiggott at 12:25 PM on August 23, 2006
Right, that's eight of them. I'm willing to bet that there are a lot more than eight people in North America who've won millions. I'll bet they still have millions.
Tell ya what. I'll take the fifty million, you can call me stupid and a part of a group of losers, and we'll both be happy!
I think what this comes down to is one group ridiculing another group because there's more than a little snarky jealousy aimed at the "Winnars."
posted by illiad at 12:30 PM on August 23, 2006
Tell ya what. I'll take the fifty million, you can call me stupid and a part of a group of losers, and we'll both be happy!
I think what this comes down to is one group ridiculing another group because there's more than a little snarky jealousy aimed at the "Winnars."
posted by illiad at 12:30 PM on August 23, 2006
I think what this comes down to is one group ridiculing another group because there's more than a little snarky jealousy aimed at the "Winnars."
No, it involves a state monopoly taking advantage of people who can't bring themselves to admit they know better. For every million dollars won, there are at least one million and one dollars worth of losing tickets.
posted by sonofsamiam at 12:40 PM on August 23, 2006
No, it involves a state monopoly taking advantage of people who can't bring themselves to admit they know better. For every million dollars won, there are at least one million and one dollars worth of losing tickets.
posted by sonofsamiam at 12:40 PM on August 23, 2006
For every million dollars won, there are at least one million and one dollars worth of losing tickets.
Actually sonofsamiam, it's much worse than that. The lottery is a source of revenue for the state and for the private companies who administer them. Presumably the retailer has a markup as well. Lottery payouts are on the order of 50 to 60 cents on the dollar, meaning that for every million they give out -- in all games -- they take in as much as two million. By comparison roulette is practically a sure thing, paying on the order of something like 95c/$. And with roulette, you're going to win close to half the time while you're standing there, rather than waiting the rest of your life, and (the odds say) hundreds more lifetimes before you see a jackpot. And even those rare winners don't generally ever put their hands on very much cash.
posted by George_Spiggott at 12:56 PM on August 23, 2006
Actually sonofsamiam, it's much worse than that. The lottery is a source of revenue for the state and for the private companies who administer them. Presumably the retailer has a markup as well. Lottery payouts are on the order of 50 to 60 cents on the dollar, meaning that for every million they give out -- in all games -- they take in as much as two million. By comparison roulette is practically a sure thing, paying on the order of something like 95c/$. And with roulette, you're going to win close to half the time while you're standing there, rather than waiting the rest of your life, and (the odds say) hundreds more lifetimes before you see a jackpot. And even those rare winners don't generally ever put their hands on very much cash.
posted by George_Spiggott at 12:56 PM on August 23, 2006
Hah - a friend of mine showed me something like this the other day. I had to explain to him that its really random and the past really doesnt affect the future.
The only real way that this would work is if the system is flawed in such a way as to not be completely random. This is common with computers - where you can guess the next number in a pseudorandom sequence.
posted by SirOmega at 1:05 PM on August 23, 2006
The only real way that this would work is if the system is flawed in such a way as to not be completely random. This is common with computers - where you can guess the next number in a pseudorandom sequence.
posted by SirOmega at 1:05 PM on August 23, 2006
Lotteries are drugs. Chance-drugs. People get addicted and keep going back for another hit. The more clueless they are about odds, the stronger the effect. Even when their numbers don't come up, which is almost all the time, lottery users win because they buy the thrill of holding that chance in their sweaty hands. Then they lose and come down from the chance-high, but they can always go back and buy another, and they always do. To the lab (the government) and the dealer (the corner store), it's practically free money, like selling pot at 100 dollars a joint.
I pity people with pockets full of spent lottery tickets. They're a sad, sad bunch. I wish there were a way to capture some of that spontaneous funny money in decent microinvestments. Maybe you read an interesting article about a company and get excited about it, so you walk in off the street with no ID and no paperwork, and just buy five (or five hundred) dollars worth of that company. A machine registers the sale, the money goes to the company, and you have a little voucher for a certain amount of stock in that company. You can take it to a broker to cash it in any time you want. If there has to be a record of who bought it, then make it a simple credit card purchase, but require no paperwork except the credit card signature, nothing more formal than buying groceries. Get their money invested before they throw it away on Lotto tickets.
posted by pracowity at 1:11 PM on August 23, 2006
I pity people with pockets full of spent lottery tickets. They're a sad, sad bunch. I wish there were a way to capture some of that spontaneous funny money in decent microinvestments. Maybe you read an interesting article about a company and get excited about it, so you walk in off the street with no ID and no paperwork, and just buy five (or five hundred) dollars worth of that company. A machine registers the sale, the money goes to the company, and you have a little voucher for a certain amount of stock in that company. You can take it to a broker to cash it in any time you want. If there has to be a record of who bought it, then make it a simple credit card purchase, but require no paperwork except the credit card signature, nothing more formal than buying groceries. Get their money invested before they throw it away on Lotto tickets.
posted by pracowity at 1:11 PM on August 23, 2006
This is common with computers - where you can guess the next number in a pseudorandom sequence.
You would be amazed at how difficult this really is. In fact, if given only the numbers that come out of the PRNG, it is uncomputable (assuming that the PRNG is at all suitable for gaming.)
posted by sonofsamiam at 1:15 PM on August 23, 2006
You would be amazed at how difficult this really is. In fact, if given only the numbers that come out of the PRNG, it is uncomputable (assuming that the PRNG is at all suitable for gaming.)
posted by sonofsamiam at 1:15 PM on August 23, 2006
Yea, but the idea is that you've seen the source or hardware of the PRNG. This is common with open source encryption - anyone can look at the code and see how the algorythm works. Knowing enough about the system can lead to attacks on it.
posted by SirOmega at 1:18 PM on August 23, 2006
posted by SirOmega at 1:18 PM on August 23, 2006
No, even knowing the exact functionality of the PRNG, the random seed cannot be deduced from the output.
Many online gaming sites now publish the code for their PRNGs so that players can verify they are fair.
posted by sonofsamiam at 1:22 PM on August 23, 2006
Many online gaming sites now publish the code for their PRNGs so that players can verify they are fair.
posted by sonofsamiam at 1:22 PM on August 23, 2006
if you've ever, say, tried to buy cigarettes at a newsstand on a payday, you get to see lots of people playing the lottery. i find it kind of astounding when they rattle off dozens of numbers and how they should be played, or maybe it just seems impressive because i don't play the lottery. i do wonder sometimes if they a) are just randomly picking numbers right there b) always play the same numbers the same way or c) have some kind of complex system for determining their numbers.
i also wonder how someone pays so much attention to how their playing totally ignores the fact that the game is rigged.
posted by snofoam at 1:33 PM on August 23, 2006
i also wonder how someone pays so much attention to how their playing totally ignores the fact that the game is rigged.
posted by snofoam at 1:33 PM on August 23, 2006
do'h "how someone who pays so much attention to how they're playing"
posted by snofoam at 1:35 PM on August 23, 2006
posted by snofoam at 1:35 PM on August 23, 2006
I have to admit, I buy a lotto ticket every 4 months or so, and I do it purely for the license to daydream it provides. However, being aware of the odds, I only buy one when the total jackpots beyond a certain level, so that I would be able to finance each and every daydream. And I have some very expensive daydreams.
I know it's a stupidity tax, but there are some worthwhile social programs funded by it. Plus I probably lose more money than I spend on the occasional ticket every year. And yes, I realise I am only increasing the amount of money that goes down the drain. Sometimes I buy milk and don't drink it in time too.
Here endeth the lesson on the endless capacity for self-delusion the human being is capable of
posted by Sparx at 2:45 PM on August 23, 2006
I know it's a stupidity tax, but there are some worthwhile social programs funded by it. Plus I probably lose more money than I spend on the occasional ticket every year. And yes, I realise I am only increasing the amount of money that goes down the drain. Sometimes I buy milk and don't drink it in time too.
Here endeth the lesson on the endless capacity for self-delusion the human being is capable of
posted by Sparx at 2:45 PM on August 23, 2006
I bought a lottery ticket once.
It was 2002; I was just closing in on the end of my university education, and the costs of those halycon days were beginning to settle on my shoulders. Debt was all I could see, and day-to-day living was reduced to a simple equation of an exponentially increasing estimate of how long it would take for me to pay it all off. I could have asked my parents for help, but I was young, and pride meant I couldn't bring myself to go begging to mom and dad to bail me out when times got tough. So I continued to spend, courtesy of the charitable souls at Visa/Mastercard Inc, and my monthly minimum payments continued to increase, and which meant I had less money each month and needed to use my credit cards more and more to make ends meet.
To be honest, it was kind of liberating. I no longer had to worry about money; I was so incredibly fucked that there was simply no use worrying about it. Sure, I would never be able to pay for those new clothes, or that trip to the dentist, but if I was going to go bankrupt I felt it should be done with the reckless panache of the smoker who lights up in front of his oxygen tank; a sort of flipping-off, if you will, of the inevitable result of one's actions. Punk rock was instrumental in convincing myself this was the right thing to do.
One day, after a particularly rambunctious year-end party, I staggered into 7-11. I was sweating gin (because I thought it was classy), with that unique aroma of booze, cigarettes, pussy and despair that follows around so many recent grads like a thick Beijing smog. I needed some Dunhills; and while the clerk was putting on her glasses and puttering around the cigarette display, I found that I needed to lean against the counter to keep myself steady. Staring directly down in a vain attempt to fight down the rising nausea and dizziness, my eyes focused on a small ticket of paper. No, wait, several. They had large sums of money written on them. Magical numbers like $10,000. $25,000. $100,000! I was surprised to find the answer to all my worries so close at hand, and with the overly-enthusiastic gusto of one who is trying to mask a deadly hangover, I demanded the clerk give me several of these tickets at once.
Each had a game; tic-tac-toe, connect 4, simple child's games like that. According to the directions on the back, however, all I did for all of them was scratch off all the grey gunk and riches would be my reward.
I held on to those tickets for dear life, like a drowning man to a life raft in the choppy seas off Gibraltar. I scratched them right there outside the 7-11, hoping to walk right back in there with a smile on my face to claim my reward.
As I was scratching, I imagined how good it would feel to pay back all those I owed money to in the world; the university, my benefactors at Visa, Dr. Menon-Sen who had so expertly mended the damage of so many years of hard living to my teeth, and even the nice old lady at the flowershop who had sold me a bouquet on credit for my mother's birthday. And in repaying these people would my own reputation be burnished as a man who could keep his house in order - my ex-girlfriend's parents, who said I was in the carriage car of a bullet train headed for disaster - I'd show them! All the doubters, the nay-sayers, they would eat their words.
No winner. Not a one.
This couldn't be right. I had worked so hard for so long. Surely, Jesus Christ could relent for just one day and let me have this one, insignificant thing. What were a few thousand dollars to the Lord Almighty? Statistics and math floated around in my head, but I was impervious to the cold realities of logic and reason. They seemed such petty, graceless things compared to the ephermal joy a lottery ticket.
So of course, I went back. 5 more. 10 more. I spent $115 dollars that morning, just standing outside smoking my Dunhills and scrabbling away at scratch tickets palsied by drink.
I did not win a single dollar that day. Nor the next, or the day after. My visa ran out. I had spent $450 on lottery tickets, all at one store. I was quite a novelty; they talked about me in hushed voices when I entered the store and as I left with another bundle of tickets.
It finally came to pass that I came to the end of the line. I was out of cash. I finally found some secret reserve of strength, and got a job. Not a great job, but I slowly, crawlingly paid back my large accounts with nearly every lending institution available in Canada. I learned to appreciate the delicate training that goes into making credit counsellors seem non-judgemental, affable, even.
But every now and then, it still comes to me; there has to be a way. Some secret technique on the cutting edge, or perhaps the future of math and science, that will let me win all I desire.
That is why people like lottery systems (sorry this post was so long, boring day at work).
posted by kfx at 4:14 PM on August 23, 2006 [3 favorites]
It was 2002; I was just closing in on the end of my university education, and the costs of those halycon days were beginning to settle on my shoulders. Debt was all I could see, and day-to-day living was reduced to a simple equation of an exponentially increasing estimate of how long it would take for me to pay it all off. I could have asked my parents for help, but I was young, and pride meant I couldn't bring myself to go begging to mom and dad to bail me out when times got tough. So I continued to spend, courtesy of the charitable souls at Visa/Mastercard Inc, and my monthly minimum payments continued to increase, and which meant I had less money each month and needed to use my credit cards more and more to make ends meet.
To be honest, it was kind of liberating. I no longer had to worry about money; I was so incredibly fucked that there was simply no use worrying about it. Sure, I would never be able to pay for those new clothes, or that trip to the dentist, but if I was going to go bankrupt I felt it should be done with the reckless panache of the smoker who lights up in front of his oxygen tank; a sort of flipping-off, if you will, of the inevitable result of one's actions. Punk rock was instrumental in convincing myself this was the right thing to do.
One day, after a particularly rambunctious year-end party, I staggered into 7-11. I was sweating gin (because I thought it was classy), with that unique aroma of booze, cigarettes, pussy and despair that follows around so many recent grads like a thick Beijing smog. I needed some Dunhills; and while the clerk was putting on her glasses and puttering around the cigarette display, I found that I needed to lean against the counter to keep myself steady. Staring directly down in a vain attempt to fight down the rising nausea and dizziness, my eyes focused on a small ticket of paper. No, wait, several. They had large sums of money written on them. Magical numbers like $10,000. $25,000. $100,000! I was surprised to find the answer to all my worries so close at hand, and with the overly-enthusiastic gusto of one who is trying to mask a deadly hangover, I demanded the clerk give me several of these tickets at once.
Each had a game; tic-tac-toe, connect 4, simple child's games like that. According to the directions on the back, however, all I did for all of them was scratch off all the grey gunk and riches would be my reward.
I held on to those tickets for dear life, like a drowning man to a life raft in the choppy seas off Gibraltar. I scratched them right there outside the 7-11, hoping to walk right back in there with a smile on my face to claim my reward.
As I was scratching, I imagined how good it would feel to pay back all those I owed money to in the world; the university, my benefactors at Visa, Dr. Menon-Sen who had so expertly mended the damage of so many years of hard living to my teeth, and even the nice old lady at the flowershop who had sold me a bouquet on credit for my mother's birthday. And in repaying these people would my own reputation be burnished as a man who could keep his house in order - my ex-girlfriend's parents, who said I was in the carriage car of a bullet train headed for disaster - I'd show them! All the doubters, the nay-sayers, they would eat their words.
No winner. Not a one.
This couldn't be right. I had worked so hard for so long. Surely, Jesus Christ could relent for just one day and let me have this one, insignificant thing. What were a few thousand dollars to the Lord Almighty? Statistics and math floated around in my head, but I was impervious to the cold realities of logic and reason. They seemed such petty, graceless things compared to the ephermal joy a lottery ticket.
So of course, I went back. 5 more. 10 more. I spent $115 dollars that morning, just standing outside smoking my Dunhills and scrabbling away at scratch tickets palsied by drink.
I did not win a single dollar that day. Nor the next, or the day after. My visa ran out. I had spent $450 on lottery tickets, all at one store. I was quite a novelty; they talked about me in hushed voices when I entered the store and as I left with another bundle of tickets.
It finally came to pass that I came to the end of the line. I was out of cash. I finally found some secret reserve of strength, and got a job. Not a great job, but I slowly, crawlingly paid back my large accounts with nearly every lending institution available in Canada. I learned to appreciate the delicate training that goes into making credit counsellors seem non-judgemental, affable, even.
But every now and then, it still comes to me; there has to be a way. Some secret technique on the cutting edge, or perhaps the future of math and science, that will let me win all I desire.
That is why people like lottery systems (sorry this post was so long, boring day at work).
posted by kfx at 4:14 PM on August 23, 2006 [3 favorites]
Hey - some of us live in Washington Heights (or the outer boroughs).
posted by FeldBum at 4:37 PM on August 23, 2006
posted by FeldBum at 4:37 PM on August 23, 2006
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Hey, this coin I've been flipping came up heads the last nine times... I'd best bet my life savings that it'll be tails the next time, as clearly the chances of it being heads 10 times in a row are 1000-to-1 against!
Or is this some kind of lotto system I'm unacquainted with?
posted by Mayor West at 10:08 AM on August 23, 2006