Recent posts here
discuss a growing sense that climate change is going to be worse than we thought. A link to Charles Stross's musing on a future that included climate change was discussed on MeFi here
But Kim Stanley Robinson asks a slightly different question: If capitalism is the driver of climate change, what happens next
? What does post-capitalism
Gunnar Garfors is on a mission to travel to all 198* countries in the world. As of today, he's at 196
. [more inside]
Key to slowing/stalling/reversal of desertification and climate change? More cows (sort of). Holistic Management
advocate and biologist Allan Savory
, co-founder of the Savory Institute
, discusses the counterintuitive tactic of allowing large herds of animals to free-roam marginal lands. [more inside]
The prospects of keeping climate change below that (2-degree goal) are fading away.
Scientists track carbon pollution both by monitoring what comes out of factories and what winds up in the atmosphere. Both are rising at rates faster than worst-case scenarios that climate scientists used in their most recent international projections.
"A theory quickly emerged: that believers in climate science had been the main people taking Dr. Lewandowsky’s survey, but instead of answering honestly, had decided en masse to impersonate climate contrarians, giving the craziest possible answers so as to make the contrarians look like whack jobs.
So, a paper about a tendency among this group to believe in conspiracy theories was met by … a conspiracy theory." - Unlocking the Conspiracy Mind-Set [more inside]
Melting Point Greenland
has some sublime hi-def video of, well, Greenland melting. The summer 2012 melt was unprecedented
, it alone
rose global sea-levels by 1mm. The scientist-run blog Greenland Melting
is following. Why Greenland's melting could be the biggest climate disaster of all
How can we get CO2 out of the atmosphere? Get it out of the sea first.
Making jet fuel from seawater
is a pretty cool -- albeit energy intensive -- trick. But applying the same science to scrub CO2 out of seawater, where it is more densely concentrated than in the atmosphere -- and, by doing so, to reduce atmospheric levels of CO2 back to acceptable levels -- that's a game saver.
"what would it take to draw atmospheric carbon down to 350 ppm with just this technology? . . . we would require the power of about 700 AP-1000 nuclear reactors. At the Chinese cost of $1.3b apiece and an 80 year lifetime this would cost a bit over $1 trillion dollars. That sounds like a lot of money. But its only about the cost of America’s 2003 Iraq War spread over the century, so I guess it’s a question of priorities."
...and the news ain't good: "Evidence for climate change abounds, from the top of the atmosphere to the depths of the oceans. This evidence has been compiled by scientists and engineers from around the world, using satellites, weather balloons, thermometers, buoys, and other observing systems. The sum total of this evidence tells an unambiguous story: the planet is warming."
Overview letter is here
, Executive Summary is here
, and the full download is here
. [WARNING: Full download runs to 147MB).
It's so hot in Australia they've added a new color to the weather map,
a Tasmania-sized deep purple blob 50 degrees or more (123 F). In the USA 2012 was the hottest year ever recorded
, smashing through previous records by a healthy margin. 2012 was also the second-worst on a measure called the Climate Extremes Index
, surpassed only by 1998. Globally, 2012 is expected to be ranked as the eighth-warmest year on record, with that announcement coming later in the month. "Climate change has had a role in this,” said Jake Crouch, a climate scientist at NOAA.
"It's like watching 'Manhattan breaking apart in front of your eyes', says filmmaker James Balog
. He's describing the largest iceberg calving ever filmed
, as featured in his movie, Chasing Ice
At Cambridge University, the Project for Existential Risk
is considering threats to humankind caused by developing technologies. It will be developing a prospectus for the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk, to be launched by the Astronomer Royal
, a co-founder of Skype
and the Bertrand Russell professor of philosophy
. More detail
from the university, while the news excites some journalists
. [more inside]
As if ticks weren't awful/awesome enough already, the Lone Star Tick (Amblyomma americanum
) has been shown
to transmit an allergy to meat
in humans. [more inside]
In a report released [Tuesday], the World Bank analyzed the consequences of allowing temperatures to reach 4°C above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century. ... the report's authors admit that predications are a challenge. Still, they do their best to try to paint a picture, and boy, is it grim.
Searching for Doggerland.
"For decades North Sea boatmen have been dragging
of a vanished world
in their nets. Now archaeologists are asking a timely question: What happens to people
as their homeland
disappears beneath a rising
October 2012 is the 332nd consecutive month with an above-average temperature. If you were born in or after April 1985, if you are right now 27 years old or younger, you have never lived through a month that was colder than average. State of the Climate: Global Analysis October 2012
(NOAA). While $50 billion Sandy has had the spotlight, the biggest natural disaster of 2012 (in the US) has been the Great Drought
still ongoing which is expected to cut America's GDP by 0.5 to 1% for the year. The death toll from the heat waves that accompanied this year's drought will exceed that of Sandy. This Sunday and Monday, Ken Burns premiers his new documentary "The Dust Bowl"
, on PBS. (via
While developed countries are pondering whether they should sign up to The Kyoto 2 Protocol and cut greenhouse gas emissions by 5% by 2020, based on 2000 levels
which may be of questionable impact
, the tiny Pacific territory of Tokelau
has ditched its primary source of electricity generation, costly diesel imports, in favour of 100% renewable solar power
, becoming the first nation in the world to do so
, at a time when the global energy systems of the 21C are struggling towards decarbonisation. [more inside]
A new study
in which researchers have compared the last 10 years of actual climate data with the world's most sophisticated climate simulations and found the models predicting the most extreme global warming have been the most accurate in predicting the actual climate over the last 10 years. That means if those models continue to hold true, the world could be in for a devastating worst case of 4 to 6 degrees C by 2100. There are scientists who lay out the logic
why human civilization could not survive. "If you have got a population of 9 billion by 2050 and you hit 4 degrees, 5 degrees or 6 degrees, you might have half a billion people surviving."
Meet The Climate Change Denier Who Became The Voice Of Hurricane Sandy On Wikipedia"Ken Mampel, an unemployed, 56-year-old Floridian, is in large part the creator of the massive Hurricane Sandy Wikipedia page. He's also the reason that, for nearly a week, the page had no mention of climate change."
The tragedy of climate change: the UK Pig Association is warning
that due to droughts
causing high pig food prices, a global bacon shortage
is now unavoidable
In 2003, the BBC reported that a population explosion of Great Gerbils
had destroyed more than 4 million hectares of grasslands in China's north-western Xinjiang region
-- an area about the size of Switzerland. By 2005 the damage covered 5
million hectares, and the Xinjuang Regional Headquarters for Controlling Locusts and Rodents were reported to be breeding and attracting pairs of golden eagles to curb the gerbil population. So McSweeney's Joshuah Bearman was assigned to the story. His report: An Investigation Into Xinjiang's Growing Swarm of Great Gerbils, Which May or May Not be Locked in a Death-Struggle With the Golden Eagle, With Important Parallels and/or Implications Regarding Koala Bears, The Pied Piper, Spongmonkeys, Cane Toads, Black Death, [and] Text-Messaging.
While the 2007 IPCC report
showed Arctic sea-ice still present in 2100, it is now an unfolding "global disaster"
according to Cambridge Professor Peter Wadhams
. Climate Code Red summarizes the science, saying the sea-ice is "in a 'death spiral' and likely to be gone in summer within a few years" ... "The sea-ice volume is now down to just one-fifth of what it was in 1979", and paints a newly emerging, rapidly worsening climate picture
, urging climate scientists to sound the alarm on new data showing a world on the brink of dramatic tipping points, far sooner than anyone anticipated
of Arctic ice cover
have hit record
lows. Melting usually continues into September, so this year’s minimum should be below the 2007 record.
The rate of melting far exceeds that predicted
by most models. Predictions
of when the Arctic might be entirely ice-free at the summer minimum are being brought sharply forwards
Is climate change causing our recent extreme weather events?
(pdf). A panel of eminent climate scientists lays out the current state of what we know, and what we don't know yet, in this forthcoming paper. Jason Samenow (of the Washington Post's Capital Weather Gang blog) nicely summarizes
the key points. [more inside]
NASA's James Hansen
has been called the "godfather" of climate warming
, largely because of his long record
of major publications on the topic. He is also a determined climate activist
, and demanding
(PDF) that immediate action be taken to deal effectively with the issue, while using his science
to advance his case. Recently, he and 2 colleagues
effectively contradicted the widespread view that individual extreme weather events cannot be directly linked with observed climate warming, using extreme high temperatures as an example. [additional earlier
(PDF) information]. (See previous
(PDF) related work by others.) Several climate experts have attacked
Hansen's activism and his science
(PDF). Does his activism make James Hansen a bad scientist? (Related previous posts here
, now peer-reviewed and published.)
Was climate science the real reason the strategic dynamos on the UVA board wanted president Teresa Sullivan gone? The fund manager behind the coup is "very, very angry" that I would even ask…
In a three-part series (1
) of muckraking blog posts, journalist Moe Tkacik
investigates the possibility that the failed ouster of President Teresa Sullivan from the University of Virginia (previously
) might have been motivated not by vague conflicts over Internet-based distance learning, as had been speculated — but instead by global-warming-denial politics, with the coup plotters on the Board opposing Sullivan over the hire of climate scientist Michael Mann (previously
Australia joined many
in putting a price
on carbon pollution (fixed
CO2e for three years) (prev)
. Despite extensive compensation
, this moderate
has proved enormously unpopular
("based on a lie
") and is expected to be repealed
the Federal Opposition are returned to government.
"Climate change will take on a life of it's own and spiral out of control. Something like half the earth's currently-inhabited land would become too hot to survive on. I don't mean it's difficult to grow beans, or your air-conditioning bills are inconveniently high. I mean, if you go outside you die of hotness. Places that were an average of 80F will now be an average of 170, 180F. Will there still be human civilization under those circumstances?
" - a TEDx talk on The Brutal Logic of Climate Change
, by David Roberts
Mexico passes ambitious climate change law
to reduce carbon emissions by 30 percent below 2000 levels by 2020, and 50 percent below 2000 levels by 2050. The law also stipulates that 35 percent of Mexico's electricity should come from renewable sources by the year 2024. It joins the United Kingdom in having legally binding emissions goals aimed at stemming the effects of climate change.
A Message from a Republican on Climate Change:
I'm going to tell you something that my Republican friends are loath to admit out loud: climate change is real. I'm a moderate Republican, fiscally conservative; a fan of small government, accountability, self-empowerment and sound science. I am not a climate scientist. I'm a Penn State meteorologist, and the weather maps I'm staring at are making me very uncomfortable.
The Republican Brain
is Chris Mooney
's second book investigating the reasons for the beliefs of conservative Americans, following 2005's The Republican War on Science
. He asks why
identified Republicans reject the scientific consensus on important issues, seemingly against their education achievement
, finding an answer
"Speaking for many scientists and engineers who have looked carefully and independently at the science of climate, we have a message to any candidate for public office: There is no compelling scientific argument for drastic action to "decarbonize" the world's economy. Even if one accepts the inflated climate forecasts of the IPCC, aggressive greenhouse-gas control policies are not justified economically." Link
. [more inside]
is a movement that takes a different view of economic expansion. Mostly it focuses on how value is created and what happens to the excess value. Proponents can be very aggressive
or very mellow
but a key part of their philosophy is that we must recognize the value we've inherited from the past. In other words, we don't start our lives with an empty ledger but have inherited many physical and intellectual gifts from previous generations. Recently I began wondering whether we shouldn't look at the other side of the ledger, particularly when it comes to ecological impacts - i.e., the messes we inherit. It turns out that in the early 90s, some social credit economists
were writing about this and were even talking about climate change as something that needed to be added to the equation. Is this an idea whose time has finally come?
"Although there is a great deal of psychological research on misinformation, there's no summary of the literature that offers practical guidelines on the most effective ways of reducing the influence of myths. The Debunking Handbook
boils the research down into a short, simple summary, intended as a guide for communicators in all areas (not just climate) who encounter misinformation." Direct PDF link.
Now the future is a kind of attenuating peninsula; as we move out on it, one side drops off to catastrophe; the other side, nowhere near as steep, moves down into various kinds of utopian futures. In other words, we have come to a moment of utopia or catastrophe; there is no middle ground, mediocrity will no longer succeed. So utopia is no longer a nice idea, but a survival necessity. "Remarks on Utopia in the Age of Climate Change,"
from Kim Stanley Robinson. Previously.
Dramatic and unprecedented
plumes of methane have been have been seen bubbling to the surface of the Arctic Ocean. [more inside]