MetaFilter posts tagged with GameTheory

Can game theory predict when Iran will get the bomb?

djgh — Wed, 19 Aug 2009 18:57:17 -0800

Can game theory predict when Iran will get the bomb? Bruce Bueno de Mesquita thinks yes. (Previously)

Overthinking Carol

Kadin2048 — Wed, 22 Jul 2009 21:57:35 -0800

The Carol Syndrome "Carol's perception that she scares men away is not a delusion after all. … It is not a matter of bad luck but a collateral effect of interactive rationality. A paradoxical consequence is that Carol's attractiveness acts as a repellent." Game theory (mis?)applied to dating. Dating and 'mate selection' are a popular choice for game theorists: there's the Eligible Bachelor Paradox, Nash equilibria as an explanation for male students' keg-party behavior, and an analysis of dating strategies (including the 'Idealistic Love Strategy w/ Time Restriction' and 'Advanced Young Love Strategy'). Still, others have competing theories. (Via HN)

The Price of Anarchy

parudox — Sat, 27 Dec 2008 23:23:01 -0800

Braess' paradox and the price of anarchy [PDF]: "We had three tunnels in the city and one needed to be shut down. Bizarrely, we found that car volumes dropped. ... We discovered it was a case of Braess' paradox, which says that by taking away space in an urban area you can actually increase the flow of traffic, and, by implication, by adding extra capacity to a road network you can reduce overall performance." The Price of Anarchy in Transportation Networks is the paper mentioned in the first link — see that for maps of Boston, London, and Manhattan that show which roads were beneficial to block (individually) in a simulation. If you are interested in selfish networks and are not afraid of math, check out Selfish Routing and the Price of Anarchy (review) as well as this paper for some bounds on the price of anarchy.

Don't the Norwegian players know that "Rock is for Rookies?

KokuRyu — Sun, 19 Oct 2008 19:57:05 -0800

The Yahoo! 2008 World Rock Paper Scissors (RPS) Championships will be held in Toronto, Ontario on October 25. First prize: $10,000. Norway has publicly stated that they aim for a Norwegian world champion by 2010. RPS trading cards can be found here. Graham Walker, co-founder of the World Rock Paper Scissors Society, discusses the sport on CBC here. Amusing posters and other kitsch. The Official Rock Paper Scissors Strategy Guide states: Don’t even think about competing before consulting The Official Rock Paper Scissors Strategy Guide On the history of the game: The first known proto-RPS game was played widely by early Homo-sapiens around 5000 B.C. They used it to resolve food and mating disputes Why you should compete: Rock Paper Scissors (RPS)—the ultimate decision-making tool—is the game you played as a child to determine who went fi rst in dodge ball or who got the last piece of candy. Today the ancient game is becoming a social phenomenon and this time it’s for adults.... What is a gambit? A series of three successive moves made with strategic intention, and include "THE CRESCENDO", "DENOUEMENT", "FISTFUL O' DOLLARS" (This move took the 1967 RPS World Championships by surprise and is arguably still one of the great surprise offensive moves), and more. Advanced play - why study RPS? "To the beginner the choices are few, to the expert the choices are many." - Wojek Smallsoa, as quoted in The Trio of Hands, 1962 Some claim mathematics is more of a determinant of who wins.

Computer game forecasts EOTWAWKI by 2042

stbalbach — Wed, 08 Oct 2008 06:16:38 -0800

According to the Global Extinction Awareness System (GEAS, by the Institute For the Future) - a simulation based on "the worlds’s first massively multiplayer forecasting game" - by the year 2042 AD there is a potentially terminal combination of five so-called “super-threats” which represent a collision of environmental, economic, and social risks. Acting together, the five super-threats may irreversibly overwhelm homo sapiens ability to survive. Spokesperson for United Nations Secretary General “We are grateful for GEAS’ work, and we treat their latest forecast with seriousness and profound gravity.”[[press release]]. The game runs from Oct.8 to Nov. 6, players wanted.

The Dollar Auction and Swoopo

Zarkonnen — Wed, 01 Oct 2008 14:10:53 -0800

An online auction site called Swoopo, once called TeleBid, has hit upon an ingenious way to make money. They are an auction site not entirely unlike Ebay - but using a different auction scheme. Where EBay uses a slightly modified Vickrey auction system, Swoopo uses an auction system based on the "Dollar Auction" game - with interesting results. Their system is an open auction with a very tight time limit, where each bid made increases the price by seven pence, costs the bidder fifty pence to make and increases the time limit by a couple of seconds. This might seem benign at first, until you do the maths: For example, a camera worth £679.99 was recently sold for £189.49 to someone who had made 81 bids. This particular bidder paid a mere £229.99 for the camera. But to drive up the camera's price to £189.49, some 2706 bids had to be made, at a total cost of £1353. Hence, Swoopo ended up receiving £1542.49 for a camera valued at less than half that. It's a good deal for the winner - but an even better one for the company. An even stranger kind of auction takes place on the site - a "100% off" auction, where the final price does not have to be paid. Whoever makes the final bid before the timer runs out gets the object of the auction for no additional cost beyond the bidding fees. The object of the auction is five hundred pounds. So the deal is this: keep on giving money to Swoopo in 50p increments, hoping to be the one to get the money at the end. Whenever that is. At the time of writing, there was a £500 auction that has climbed to £738.08. If it ended at that point, one of the parties would walk away with £500 in exchange for however much it cost them to bid. And the company would end up with £5272 in fees in exchange for that £500. Is this auctioning or entertainment? A clever application of game theory? Gambling? A scam? It's probably not illegal, as far as anyone can tell. The decision on its morality is left up to the reader... Previously on Everything2 and TechCrunch, including a comment from (apparently) the CEO of Swoopo.

Behind Door Number One...

amyms — Tue, 08 Apr 2008 18:10:14 -0800

The Monty Hall Problem has struck again, and this time it’s not merely embarrassing mathematicians. If the calculations of a Yale economist are correct, there’s a sneaky logical fallacy in some of the most famous experiments in psychology." The NY Times' John Tierney reports on new research into cognitive dissonance as examined through the famous Monty Hall Problem. [A previous MetaFilter thread about the Monty Hall Problem: Let's Make A Deal!]

In the future, we're still all raging dirtbags.

anotherpanacea — Tue, 04 Dec 2007 10:27:38 -0800

Bruce Bueno de Mesquita uses rational choice theory to predict the future.

Evolution and Cooperation

homunculus — Sat, 11 Aug 2007 14:25:56 -0800

In Games, an Insight Into the Rules of Evolution. Carl Zimmer writes about Martin Nowak (previously mentioned here), a mathematical biologist who uses games to understand how cooperation evolved. [Via MindHacks.]

The Communal Moniker Was Either a Godsend or an Albatross

Joey Michaels — Mon, 09 Jul 2007 15:28:44 -0800

The Paisley Underground. From about 1982 to 1985, the Los Angeles club scene featured a bunch of guitar bands on the verge of being the next big thing, including The Dream Syndicate, Green on Red, The Long Ryders, The Rain Parade, Game Theory (later known as The Loud Family) and, of course, The Bangles (the only ones who managed to actually become a big thing). Michael Quercio of The Three O'Clock and Salvation Army inadvertently named the scene "Paisley underground" when he made an off handed joke during a radio interview. Most of the bands are now, to borrow a phrase from Game Theory leader Scott Miller, languishing in national obscurity, as opposed to local obscurity.

The Traveler's Dilemma

empath — Wed, 30 May 2007 08:56:26 -0800

"He asks each of them to write down...any dollar integer between 2 and 100 without conferring together. If both write the same number...he will pay each of them that amount. But if they write different numbers, he will ... pay both of them the lower number along with a bonus and a penalty--the person who wrote the lower number will get $2 more...and the one who wrote the higher number will get $2 less.... For instance, if Lucy writes 46 and Pete writes 100, Lucy will get $48 and Pete will get $44."

What amount would you choose? And what does your answer tell us about the limits of Game Theory?

The battle of wits has begun. It ends when you decide and we both drink, and find out who is right and who is dead.

blahblahblah — Wed, 19 Jul 2006 07:20:11 -0800

Game Theory at the movies. The Princess Bride demonstrates the use of common knowledge, Butch Cassidy laments pareto equilibrium, and Swingers is an example of pooling equilibrium. Though no longer on the site, you can still see the most involved rock, paper, scissors game ever filmed [.mov].

toilet seat problem

dhruva — Fri, 03 Feb 2006 21:17:56 -0800

A game theoretic approach to the toilet seat problem. Because people are really passionate about their toilets.

Logical Risks

alms — Fri, 27 Jan 2006 12:02:00 -0800

Answer three ~~simple~~ tricky questions and predict your sensitivity to risk. via Washington Monthly

Eat it, Rand.

schroedinger — Mon, 21 Mar 2005 19:38:33 -0800

An evolutionary basis for altruism. These findings suggest that true altruism, far from being a maladaptation, may be the key to our species' success by providing the social glue that allowed our ancestors to form strong, resilient groups. Sharing isn't just caring, it's surviving.

Game Theory Resource

Gyan — Mon, 03 Jan 2005 04:05:28 -0800

Game Theory.

TFT KO'd by TSG in IPD

kliuless — Thu, 14 Oct 2004 18:59:41 -0800

Tit-for-tat dethroned in iterated prisoner's dilemma competition! But it might not work so well in RL, and what if you threw in QM? :D

The Sleeping Beaty problem

salmacis — Wed, 21 Jul 2004 03:15:10 -0800

"We plan to put Beauty to sleep by chemical means, and then we’ll flip a fair coin. If the coin lands Heads, we will awaken Beauty on Monday afternoon and interview her. If it lands Tails, we will awaken her Monday afternoon, interview her, put her back to sleep, and then awaken her again on Tuesday afternoon and interview her again. The (each?) interview is to consist of the one question : what is your credence now for the proposition that our coin landed Heads? When awakened (and during the interview) Beauty will not be able to tell which day it is, nor will she remember whether she has been awakened before. She knows about the above details of our experiment. What credence should she state in answer to our question?"

In light of the recent thread on the Monty Hall problem, here's a probability puzzle that's even more mind-bending: the Sleeping Beauty problem. Some people say the answer is 1/2. Some people say the answer is 1/3. Some people say there is no answer. Papers have been written which can't resolve this one.

Let's Make a Deal!

monju_bosatsu — Tue, 20 Jul 2004 09:12:10 -0800

A playable version of the Monty Hall problem. More information.

Game Theories: Are these virtual worlds the best place to study the real one?

hoder — Mon, 17 May 2004 05:38:40 -0800

Game Theories: Are these virtual worlds the best place to study the real one? The Gross National Product of EverQuest, measured by how much wealth all the players together created in a single year inside the game. It turned out to be $2,266 U.S. per capita. By World Bank rankings, that made EverQuest richer than India, Bulgaria, or China, and nearly as wealthy as Russia. (by Clive Thompson)

Economists in hell.

monju_bosatsu — Mon, 03 Nov 2003 10:05:27 -0800

Problems in infinite decision theory [pdf]. You are in hell and facing an eternity of torment, but the devil offers you a way out, which you can take once and only once at any time from now on. Today, if you ask him to, the devil will toss a fair coin once and if it comes up heads you are free (but if tails then you face eternal torment with no possibility of reprieve). You don’t have to play today, though, because tomorrow the devil will make the deal slightly more favourable to you (and you know this): he’ll toss the coin twice but just one head will free you. The day after, the offer will improve further: 3 tosses with just one head needed. And so on (4 tosses, 5 tosses, ….1000 tosses …) for the rest of time if needed. So, given that the devil will give you better odds on every day after this one, but that you want to escape from hell some time, when should accept his offer? More discussion here.

A Beautiful Post

_sirmissalot_ — Fri, 28 Feb 2003 14:49:13 -0800

The Ultimate Game. Game theory was applied extensively by US foreign policy-makers during the Cold War, and many would credit those "moves" with the triumph of the West. But can it work now? Are rogue states and terrorists "rational actors?" Are we seeing a classic two-player game playing out with the US and Iraq? What does it even mean to "win" in the post-Soviet era? If these theories interest you, try these online simulations.

kliuless — Thu, 08 Aug 2002 19:01:49 -0800

Civil War: Political Violence and Robust Settlements -- an article from the Santa Fe Institute Bulletin about game theoretical approaches combined with on the ground field studies to analyze war and conflict. The article centers around work (Forging Democracy From Below: Insurgent Transitions in South Africa and El Salvador | Insurgent Collective Action and Civil War in El Salvador) done by Elisabeth Jean Wood, an NYU professor of political science with a background in physics. "The reason to study violence and suffering," says Wood, "is to understand its origins, processes, andâ?"ideallyâ?"to contribute to its cessation."

riley370 — Wed, 12 Dec 2001 23:22:19 -0800

The Nash equilibrium
So at the present time I seem to be thinking rationally again in the style that is characteristic of scientists. However this is not entirely a matter of joy as if someone returned from physical disability to good physical health. One aspect of this is that rationality of thought imposes a limit on a person's concept of his relation to the cosmos....from John F. Nash Jr.'s autobiography for the 1994 Nobel Prize for Economics.