A massive rare 'superstorm' is currently
bearing down on Alaska, with hurricane force winds (100+mph gusts), blizzard, sea-surge flooding. "This is going to be one of the worst storms on record over the Bering Sea". The storm passed through an area of unusually high sea surface temperatures. "This may
help explain why the storm is turning from an ordinary Bering Sea disturbance into a ‘superstorm’."
[more inside]
posted by stbalbach
on Nov 9, 2011 -
69 comments
National Hurricane Center and the Likelihood of Hurricanes. In December 2003 the NHC predicted a 68% chance of a major (Category 3-4-5) hurricane hitting the US, in fact there were three major hits on the US (Charlie, Ivan, and Jeanne). In December 2004 the NHC predicted a 69% chance of a major hurricane, in fact there were four major hists (Dennis, Katrina, Rita, and Wilma). The odds of that happening are about 0.9% (see link for math), or "statistically very significant evidence" the NHC predictions are understated.
Forecast for 2006: 81% chance of a major hurricane.
posted by stbalbach
on Mar 15, 2006 -
34 comments
Noted in the live stream from this TV station This is the "Local2 News" live tv stream (which has been pointed to in three previous MeFi threads about other news stories.
Currently they've from time to time been showing storm track predictive models (which they say are their own development).
I'd rather have pointers to more models than the TV station's occasional glimpses, but, this is the most varied set of storm track predictions I've seen. Anyone know where they're getting them?
posted by hank
on Sep 22, 2005 -
24 comments