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Users that often use this tag:
The Whelk (6)
the man of twists ... (3)
zarq (3)
Atom Heart Mother (2)
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Bionic eyes for sale in 2019? Sign me up.

BBC Future predicts what will happen over the next 150 years, and also for the next 100 quintillion years, in handy infographic form.
posted by bayani on Jan 7, 2014 - 110 comments

"appointed to his spot by every single president since Nixon."

In 1973, a small think-tank with the mandate of anticipating and preparing for future threats was formed inside the DoD, called the Office of Net Assessment. A RAND corp strategist named Andrew Marshall was placed at its head. Forty years later, he's still at it and has survived the latest round of budget cuts - for now. [more inside]
posted by the man of twists and turns on Dec 9, 2013 - 18 comments

AskMetafilter In 1946.

A Logic Named Joe is a short science-fiction story by Murray Leinster. Published in 1946, the story depicts data-mining, massively networked computers, search engines, privacy/censorship filters and internet porn. Read it here.
posted by The Whelk on May 13, 2013 - 35 comments

Stay Dry and See the Future

Forecast.io is a new global weather data service announced yesterday. It boasts smoothly animating radar maps that predict up to a week in advance, a "time machine" to let you explore past and future weather, and intelligent text summaries. [more inside]
posted by duien on Mar 26, 2013 - 67 comments

The Dreams Of Big Data

Does Big Data Mean The Demise Of The Expert - And Intuition? - "Data-driven decisions are poised to augment or overrule human judgment." What Is Big Data? [more inside]
posted by the man of twists and turns on Mar 21, 2013 - 73 comments

no one could have predicted

With sincere regret we must inform you that due to circumstances recently discovered we must immediately cease trading activity on www.intrade.com. InTrade is apparently shutting down completely, at least for a while. Previously.
posted by gerryblog on Mar 10, 2013 - 98 comments

What, Me Worry?

Every year, Edge.org asks a question. This year's is:"What *Should* We Be Worried About?" The responses are things like "Chinese Eugenics," "We Are In Denial About Catastrophic Risks," "Worry About Internet Drivel," "The Patience Deficit," "The Power Of Bad Incentives," "The Complex, Consequential, Not-So-Easy Decisions About Our Water Resources," and "The Cultural And Cognitive Consequences Of Electronics." They are from people like Nassim Nicholas Taleb, David Rowan, Evgeny Morozov, Kate Jeffery, Vernor Vinge, Bruce Schneier, Alison Gopnik, Steven Pinker, Virginia Heffernan and Simon Baron-Cohen. There are 154 answers. [more inside]
posted by the man of twists and turns on Jan 22, 2013 - 97 comments

Any little vibration could reduce the whole creaking arrangement into a heap of rubble and ashes.

James Howard Kunstler's forecast for 2013
posted by mhjb on Jan 2, 2013 - 98 comments

Where are the flying cars? I was promised flying cars. I don't see any flying cars!

Global Trends 2030 Alternate Worlds is the latest quadrennial report from The US National Intelligence Council (NIC). (Report: PDF / Talking Points: PDF.) Similar to its predecessors, '2030' attempts to predict 'alternate visions of the future.' An official blog discusses their speculations. The Atlantic Council has published a "companion publication": "Envisioning 2030: US Strategy for a Post-Western World." [more inside]
posted by zarq on Dec 11, 2012 - 21 comments

Can Murder Be Tracked Like An Infectious Disease?

Researchers found that the pattern of murder in Newark, NJ is very similar in pattern to the spread of an infectious disease. Could this research show law enforcement a new way to predict where murders will occur?
posted by reenum on Dec 6, 2012 - 14 comments

The future of medicine, as seen in 1987

"Fairly predictive tests for Alzheimer's disease, schizophrenia, depression, some malignancies, heart disease, and most of the rest of the major killers and disablers will probably be in place by 2000 to 2010. Many if not most of these ailments will be assessable in terms of a very sophisticated genetic risk profile which it will be possible to generate in infancy or childhood (or in utero)." In 1987, cryonics advocate Mike Darwin wrote about the next twenty years of medicine.
posted by escabeche on May 25, 2012 - 17 comments

Hook Up Your Slurry Tube And Chow Down

io9 asks the question: When and Why did Science Fiction drop the ubiquitous "Dinner in a pill" device?
posted by The Whelk on May 7, 2012 - 95 comments

Arthur C. Clark- 1974, predicting the Internet

Back in 1974, Arthur C. Clark imagined that we would be talking to each other via computers, and even purchasing theater reservations. How absurd!
posted by HuronBob on Apr 1, 2012 - 42 comments

Zone of Thought

Vernor Vinge is optimistic about the collapse of civilization
posted by Artw on Mar 22, 2012 - 47 comments

Never Too Early

Never Too Early Movie Predictions: "Quite possibly the earliest Oscar predictions on the web. Predictions are currently being made through 2017!"
posted by Iridic on Feb 23, 2012 - 15 comments

World building the future

MeFi's own cstross on the future: Part 1, Part 2.
posted by Zarkonnen on Jan 15, 2012 - 76 comments

The mid-century will be about "old people in big cities who are afraid of the sky."

Bruce Sterling's State Of The World - 2012
posted by The Whelk on Jan 5, 2012 - 115 comments

Life After Capitalism

One thing we can be certain of is that capitalism will end. Maybe not soon, but probably before too long; humanity has never before managed to craft an eternal social system, after all, and capitalism is a notably more precarious and volatile order than most of those that preceded it. The question, then, is what will come next.
posted by The Whelk on Dec 24, 2011 - 85 comments

The news knows it

Culturomics, an emerging field of study that applies climate-modeling levels of supercomputing power towards predicting human behavior, using "computerized analysis of vast digital book archives, offering novel insights into the functioning of human society", has been tried with digital news archives. [more inside]
posted by nomisxid on Sep 7, 2011 - 12 comments

Computational Theology

Author and Mefi's Own Charles Stross presents Three Arguments Against The Singularity
posted by The Whelk on Jun 24, 2011 - 188 comments

High-Stakes Seismology

In a chilling development, six Italian scientists (and one government official) are facing manslaughter charges for failing to predict the April 6, 2009 earthquake that killed 309 people.
posted by Betelgeuse on May 27, 2011 - 45 comments

Windex should have subsidized this video....

A Day Made of Glass. (A vision of the near-future from the makers of Gorilla Glass.) [more inside]
posted by zarq on Mar 8, 2011 - 80 comments

predicting civil unrest

Professors' global model forecasts civil unrest against governments - With protests spreading in the Middle East (now Yemen - not on the list) I thought this article and blog on a forecast model predicting "which countries will likely experience an escalation in domestic political violence [within the next five years]" was rather interesting. [more inside]
posted by kliuless on Jan 27, 2011 - 42 comments

The not so far, yet neither so near, past.

A lawfirm perusing the New York Times archives has examined how physician W. J. Mayo, famed industrialist Henry Ford, anatomist and anthropologist Arthur Keith, physicist and Nobel laureate Arthur Compton, chemist Willis R. Whitney, physicist and Nobel laureate Robert Millikan, physicist and chemist Michael Pupin, and sociologist William F. Ogburn foresaw the year 2011 from the year 1931, with commentary. [more inside]
posted by 1f2frfbf on Dec 15, 2010 - 13 comments

I. WAS. PROMISED. FLYING. CARS!

PopSci: Archive Gallery: From Chicago to Shanghai, 138 Visionary Years of World's Fairs [more inside]
posted by zarq on Sep 21, 2010 - 5 comments

We Are Going to Know a New Freedom and a New Happiness

Secret of AA: After 75 Years, We Don’t Know How It Works. "There is evidence that a big part of AA’s effectiveness may have nothing to do with the actual (12) steps. It may derive from something more fundamental: the power of the group. The importance of this is reflected by the fact that the more deeply AA members commit to the group, rather than just the program, the better they fare." [more inside]
posted by netbros on Jul 6, 2010 - 145 comments

Do you already have your Internet Surfing License?

How to Access the Internet (A Guide from 2025)
posted by knz on Jul 5, 2010 - 55 comments

Correct !

SLYT - shows old early nineties AT&T ad in accurate future prediction SHOCK !
posted by sgt.serenity on Jun 25, 2010 - 141 comments

The Internet - Where You And I Will Be Spending The Rest Of Our Lives

In the beginning of 1995 before the release of the first graphic browser, Clifford Stoll Of Newsweek said "After two decades online, I'm perplexed. It's not that I haven't had a gas of a good time on the Internet. I've met great people and even caught a hacker or two. But today, I'm uneasy about this most trendy and oversold community." Via Metachat.
posted by The Whelk on Feb 21, 2010 - 70 comments

What we really want to discover in the near future

Decades of Future Science. In which advances of the next few decades are wishfully thought up.
posted by jjray on Dec 23, 2009 - 22 comments

Guitar music is on its way out.

Wrong Tomorrow is a bit like Long Bets, except shorter and without the bets. [more inside]
posted by goodnewsfortheinsane on Apr 1, 2009 - 15 comments

The Economist: The World in 2009

In 2009, a remarkably gifted politician, confronting a remarkably difficult set of challenges, will have to learn to say "No we can't", Guantánamo will prove a moral minefield, economic recovery will be invisible to the naked eye, governments must prepare for the day they stop financial guarantees, we will judge our commitment to sustainability, scientists should research the causes of religion, we will all be potential online paparazzi, English will have more words than any other language (but it's meaningless), Afghanistan will see a surge of Western (read: American) troops, Iran will continue its nuclear quest while diplomacy lies in shambles, the sea floor is the new frontier, we should rethink aging, (non-)voters will continue to thwart the European project -- but cheap travel will continue to buoy it -- though it has some unfinished business to attend to, and a Nordic defence bond will blossom.

The Economist: The World in 2009. [more inside]
posted by goodnewsfortheinsane on Nov 27, 2008 - 31 comments

Brief History of the Twenty-First Century

A Brief History of the Twenty-first Century
posted by phrontist on Oct 7, 2008 - 28 comments

Lies, Damn Lies, Statistics...and Voter Polls

Margins of Error We can't seem to let the future alone. Even though we often get predictions about it so wrong. Because, as Niels Bohr once said, "Prediction is very difficult. Especially if it is about the future." What are the origins of political polling (beware of awful interface design)? And how is political polling evolving?
posted by jeanmari on Sep 8, 2008 - 5 comments

Bricks from ashes

Superstruct: An alternate reality game of future survival from the woman who brought you I Love Bees. Starting soon.
posted by klangklangston on Aug 14, 2008 - 10 comments

Dopamine

A New State of Mind. "New research is linking dopamine to complex social phenomena and changing neuroscience in the process."
posted by homunculus on Aug 12, 2008 - 25 comments

IBM's next 5 in 5

IBM's the next 5 in 5 "forecasts the five innovations that will change the way that we live, work and play in the next five years." [more inside]
posted by dobie on May 19, 2008 - 60 comments

This thread will end well. Buy at 61.7; sell at 60.1.

The Promise of Prediction Markets (full text link; .pdf here). A group of distinguished economists and other scholars has published a call to exempt prediction markets (previously on MeFi: 1, 2) from American laws that restrict internet gambling. [more inside]
posted by googly on May 16, 2008 - 24 comments

Solar Cycle 24 Prediction

This is interesting. Presented by the NOAA Space Environment Center (SEC) The official NOAA, NASA, and ISES Solar Cycle 24 prediction was released by the Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Panel on April 25, 2007. The Prediction Panel included members from NOAA, NASA, ISES and other US and International representatives. Press Briefings and presentations at the SEC Space Weather Workshop, plus additional announcements and information from the Panel are linked below. The Panel expects to update this prediction annually.
posted by RoseyD on Apr 26, 2007 - 9 comments

Biggest breakthroughs of the next 50 years

What will be the biggest scientific breakthroughs of the next 50 years? As part of their 50th anniversary celebration, the New Scientist asked 70 prominent minds for ideas on the subject. You can read the thoughts of scientists like Freeman Dyson, Benoit Mandelbrot and Jane Goodall individually, or browse by topic. For example, eight thinkers have something to say about alien life. The links to browse by topic can be found at the beginning of the main link. Also, compare with this thread about similar predictions from 1950.
posted by jeffmshaw on Nov 19, 2006 - 89 comments

Miracles You’ll See In The Next Fifty Years

Miracles You’ll See In The Next Fifty Years (Feb, 1950)
Some more up-to-date predictions: science, invention, space travel, colonisation, immortality, water shortage, flooding, nanotech, techno-apocalypse, extinction, mental health, smart machines, robots, mind uploading, AI, Asia, economics, demographics, goverance, cities. What is your prediction?
posted by MetaMonkey on Oct 5, 2006 - 54 comments

Handicapping the midterms

As in the 2004 elections, several useful sites have sprung up to keep track of the 2006 midterms for House, Senate and state gubernatorial races. Some have a political point of view, others don't, but they don't differ significantly on the outcome at this point. One of the veterans in this game is ElectionProjection.com, which was pretty close to actual results in '04. (A creation of "the Blogging Caesar"). From the right, there's MyElectionAnalysis.com, while ElectionPredictions seems to come from a neutral corner. All of these track statewide polls as they are published; they may differ in how they weight results. For a more subjective approach, see Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball or the Cook Political Report. Overall, the consensus seems to be that the GOP will hold both houses, but with slimmer margins, and lose on the gubernatorial front.
posted by beagle on Jul 10, 2006 - 30 comments

Gaze into my crystal ball...

BT Technology Timeline 2006-2051 It's interesting to see a major company such as BT set a timeline such as this, especially as they say thier 1990 timeline has had around 80% accuracy. They predict a supercomputer as powerful as the human mind in 2006, self aware computers that pass the turing test by 2020, and the rise of a global computer dictator by and artificial brain around 2040. After that its hard to predict, you know with the singularity coming and all... Some of the interesting things they predict: genetically engineered teddy bears; androids form 10% of the population around 2015; the Matrix is created, 2030; thought recognition as input device by 2014; the list goes on and on. Discuss. [via]
posted by daHIFI on Dec 23, 2005 - 43 comments

Probability senses tingling batman!

Experts can suck at predicting the future. Their intuitive sense of probability is no more developed than lay-people's. A classic experiment is to present two indistinguishable choices are presented, but with unequal probability of reward. Humans look for complex patterns, which don't exist, and preform quite poorly. Rats quickly recognize the choice with higher probability, and preform optimally.
posted by jeffburdges on Dec 11, 2005 - 34 comments

The Consensus of Crowds

Consensus View
New Yorker columnist James Surowiecki's book The Wisdom of Crowds "explores a deceptively simple idea that has profound implications: large groups of people are smarter than an elite few, no matter how brilliant—better at solving problems, fostering innovation, coming to wise decisions, even predicting the future." Now this idea has been put into practice with Consensus View, a site where you can enter your predictions on stocks, commodities, and currencies, and view the group consensus. (from wsj.com)
posted by reverendX on Sep 18, 2005 - 46 comments

"A Possible Declining Trend for Worldwide Innovation,"

Review of "A Possible Declining Trend for Worldwide Innovation," by Jonathan Huebner, who says the rate of human innovation has been steadily declining since the industrial revolution, and is headed toward an "economic limit" of very low apparent innovation that will be reached circa 2038. As one potential explanation, we must consider the possibility that human-initiated innovation, like energy consumption and population growth, is a process that naturally saturates with rising global income levels and technological intelligence--as technological progress increasingly satisfies current human needs, individuals become less concerned with technological development and turn more toward personal growth. More articles from Acceleration Watch.
posted by stbalbach on Jun 2, 2005 - 24 comments

The future of war is thus: information technology grows no potatoes.

It is more likely than not that most of America’s enemies in the near future will continue to be at least as awkwardly and inconveniently asymmetrical as they have been over the past 15 years. However, it would be grossly imprudent to assume that they will all be led by politicians as incompetent at grand strategy as Saddam Hussein or Slobodan Milosevic. There is probably a General Aideed lurking out there, not to mention a General Giap. A no-less-troubling thought is recognition of the certainty that America’s strategic future will witness enemies initially of the second-rate, and eventually of the first... One may choose to recall the old aphorism that “unless you have fought the Germans, you don’t really know war.” That thought, though one hopes not its precise national example, holds for the future.
How Has War Changed Since the End of the Cold War?  The answer seems to be not that much at all: The truth of the matter is that war is not changing its character, let alone miraculously accomplishing the impossible and changing its nature.
posted by y2karl on Mar 15, 2005 - 8 comments

Imagining the Internet

Imagining the Internet. What will become of the internet? And how far off have prognosticators been about it thus far? Submit your own predictions, if you dare.
posted by rushmc on Jan 10, 2005 - 27 comments

Election 2004: Step Right Up and Win Some Crap

Two weeks from today, John Kerry will win the popular vote by "23% or more" over George W. Bush, according to 5 Star Psychic Advice. See if you can do better than the spirit world by predicting the electoral and popular vote totals in the second quadrennial MetaFilter Presidential Contest ...
posted by rcade on Oct 19, 2004 - 127 comments

Electorometrics?

More Election Predictions. Not based on ideological politics, but on the way they speak, or perhaps on the way the economy moves, on top of futures markets. Are we moving toward Electorometrics?
posted by weston on May 6, 2004 - 19 comments

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