MetaFilter posts tagged with Prediction

What we really want to discover in the near future

jjray — Wed, 23 Dec 2009 21:45:13 -0800

Decades of Future Science. In which advances of the next few decades are wishfully thought up.

Guitar music is on its way out.

goodnewsfortheinsane — Wed, 01 Apr 2009 14:24:44 -0800

Wrong Tomorrow is a bit like Long Bets, except shorter and without the bets.

Previously on Long Bets

Some articles about expert predictions

The Economist: The World in 2009

goodnewsfortheinsane — Thu, 27 Nov 2008 19:00:30 -0800

In 2009, a remarkably gifted politician, confronting a remarkably difficult set of challenges, will have to learn to say "No we can't", Guantánamo will prove a moral minefield, economic recovery will be invisible to the naked eye, governments must prepare for the day they stop financial guarantees, we will judge our commitment to sustainability, scientists should research the causes of religion, we will all be potential online paparazzi, English will have more words than any other language (but it's meaningless), Afghanistan will see a surge of Western (read: American) troops, Iran will continue its nuclear quest while diplomacy lies in shambles, the sea floor is the new frontier, we should rethink aging, (non-)voters will continue to thwart the European project -- but cheap travel will continue to buoy it -- though it has some unfinished business to attend to, and a Nordic defence bond will blossom.

The Economist: The World in 2009. Previously: 2008, 2007. How did we do last time around? And what will we probably be wrong about this time? Guest contributions: President of Brazil Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva seeks greater international cooperation and sees a growing global role for the larger emerging economies. Queen of Jordan Rania calls for education reform. Prime Minister of Australia Kevin Rudd calls upon mid-size powers to be creative and effective with their influence. Prime Minister of Spain José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero emphasizes the importance of transparency and solidarity in Europe. Prime Minister of Ukraine Yulia Tymoshenko, wedged between Russia and the EU, cites historical precedent. Former Secretary of State of the United States, Nobel Peace Prize laureate Henry Kissinger argues America will be less powerful, but will still be the essential nation in creating a new world order. Mayor Boris Johnson of London argues against over-regulation. Elections to watch: Brazil, Chile, European Parliament, Germany, Indonesia, Israel, Japan. Also: Russia will enter its first real difficult years under Putin, Brown might not make it, we won't ban nukes but we can pretend, Ontario will receive economic help from other provinces, Australians will grow ever more thirsty, and Britain needs to make stuff again. World in 2009 blog.

Brief History of the Twenty-First Century

phrontist — Tue, 07 Oct 2008 20:34:12 -0800

A Brief History of the Twenty-first Century

Lies, Damn Lies, Statistics...and Voter Polls

jeanmari — Mon, 08 Sep 2008 09:40:29 -0800

Margins of Error We can't seem to let the future alone. Even though we often get predictions about it so wrong. Because, as Niels Bohr once said, "Prediction is very difficult. Especially if it is about the future." What are the origins of political polling (beware of awful interface design)? And how is political polling evolving?

Bricks from ashes

klangklangston — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 11:55:30 -0800

Superstruct: An alternate reality game of future survival from the woman who brought you I Love Bees. Starting soon.

Dopamine

homunculus — Tue, 12 Aug 2008 11:30:25 -0800

A New State of Mind. "New research is linking dopamine to complex social phenomena and changing neuroscience in the process."

IBM's next 5 in 5

dobie — Mon, 19 May 2008 17:26:51 -0800

IBM's the next 5 in 5 "forecasts the five innovations that will change the way that we live, work and play in the next five years." An interesting list that covers a lot of landscape. I for one doubt that my socialized Canadian medicine will pay for a 3-D digital medical record. I would imagine only the rich, professional athletes, and cosmetic surgery aficionados will take part. However, I do agree that my life will increasingly, and depressingly, revolve more around my cellphone. Also, a link to last year's .

This thread will end well. Buy at 61.7; sell at 60.1.

googly — Fri, 16 May 2008 08:54:52 -0800

The Promise of Prediction Markets (full text link; .pdf here). A group of distinguished economists and other scholars has published a call to exempt prediction markets (previously on MeFi: 1, 2) from American laws that restrict internet gambling. The group was supported by the American Enterprise Institute's Reg-Markets Center, which includes several of the authors on its advisory board. They suggest that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission - which recently sought public comment on the issue - establish a "safe harbor" for small-stakes markets. PM boosters are ambivalent about the idea.

Solar Cycle 24 Prediction

RoseyD — Thu, 26 Apr 2007 19:13:59 -0800

This is interesting. Presented by the NOAA Space Environment Center (SEC) The official NOAA, NASA, and ISES Solar Cycle 24 prediction was released by the Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Panel on April 25, 2007. The Prediction Panel included members from NOAA, NASA, ISES and other US and International representatives. Press Briefings and presentations at the SEC Space Weather Workshop, plus additional announcements and information from the Panel are linked below. The Panel expects to update this prediction annually.

Biggest breakthroughs of the next 50 years

jeffmshaw — Sun, 19 Nov 2006 16:52:24 -0800

What will be the biggest scientific breakthroughs of the next 50 years? As part of their 50th anniversary celebration, the New Scientist asked 70 prominent minds for ideas on the subject. You can read the thoughts of scientists like Freeman Dyson, Benoit Mandelbrot and Jane Goodall individually, or browse by topic. For example, eight thinkers have something to say about alien life. The links to browse by topic can be found at the beginning of the main link. Also, compare with this thread about similar predictions from 1950.

Miracles You’ll See In The Next Fifty Years

MetaMonkey — Thu, 05 Oct 2006 23:24:03 -0800

Miracles You’ll See In The Next Fifty Years (Feb, 1950)
Some more up-to-date predictions: science, invention, space travel, colonisation, immortality, water shortage, flooding, nanotech, techno-apocalypse, extinction, mental health, smart machines, robots, mind uploading, AI, Asia, economics, demographics, goverance, cities. What is your prediction?

Handicapping the midterms

beagle — Mon, 10 Jul 2006 09:54:46 -0800

As in the 2004 elections, several useful sites have sprung up to keep track of the 2006 midterms for House, Senate and state gubernatorial races. Some have a political point of view, others don't, but they don't differ significantly on the outcome at this point. One of the veterans in this game is ElectionProjection.com, which was pretty close to actual results in '04. (A creation of "the Blogging Caesar"). From the right, there's MyElectionAnalysis.com, while ElectionPredictions seems to come from a neutral corner. All of these track statewide polls as they are published; they may differ in how they weight results. For a more subjective approach, see Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball or the Cook Political Report. Overall, the consensus seems to be that the GOP will hold both houses, but with slimmer margins, and lose on the gubernatorial front.

Gaze into my crystal ball...

daHIFI — Fri, 23 Dec 2005 09:33:45 -0800

BT Technology Timeline 2006-2051 It's interesting to see a major company such as BT set a timeline such as this, especially as they say thier 1990 timeline has had around 80% accuracy. They predict a supercomputer as powerful as the human mind in 2006, self aware computers that pass the turing test by 2020, and the rise of a global computer dictator by and artificial brain around 2040. After that its hard to predict, you know with the singularity coming and all... Some of the interesting things they predict: genetically engineered teddy bears; androids form 10% of the population around 2015; the Matrix is created, 2030; thought recognition as input device by 2014; the list goes on and on. Discuss. [via]

Probability senses tingling batman!

jeffburdges — Sun, 11 Dec 2005 07:38:01 -0800

Experts can suck at predicting the future. Their intuitive sense of probability is no more developed than lay-people's. A classic experiment is to present two indistinguishable choices are presented, but with unequal probability of reward. Humans look for complex patterns, which don't exist, and preform quite poorly. Rats quickly recognize the choice with higher probability, and preform optimally.

The Consensus of Crowds

reverendX — Sun, 18 Sep 2005 17:52:01 -0800

Consensus View
New Yorker columnist James Surowiecki's book The Wisdom of Crowds "explores a deceptively simple idea that has profound implications: large groups of people are smarter than an elite few, no matter how brilliant—better at solving problems, fostering innovation, coming to wise decisions, even predicting the future." Now this idea has been put into practice with Consensus View, a site where you can enter your predictions on stocks, commodities, and currencies, and view the group consensus. (from wsj.com)

"A Possible Declining Trend for Worldwide Innovation,"

stbalbach — Thu, 02 Jun 2005 23:22:14 -0800

Review of "A Possible Declining Trend for Worldwide Innovation," by Jonathan Huebner, who says the rate of human innovation has been steadily declining since the industrial revolution, and is headed toward an "economic limit" of very low apparent innovation that will be reached circa 2038. As one potential explanation, we must consider the possibility that human-initiated innovation, like energy consumption and population growth, is a process that naturally saturates with rising global income levels and technological intelligence--as technological progress increasingly satisfies current human needs, individuals become less concerned with technological development and turn more toward personal growth. More articles from Acceleration Watch.

The future of war is thus: information technology grows no potatoes.

y2karl — Tue, 15 Mar 2005 20:10:55 -0800

It is more likely than not that most of America’s enemies in the near future will continue to be at least as awkwardly and inconveniently asymmetrical as they have been over the past 15 years. However, it would be grossly imprudent to assume that they will all be led by politicians as incompetent at grand strategy as Saddam Hussein or Slobodan Milosevic. There is probably a General Aideed lurking out there, not to mention a General Giap. A no-less-troubling thought is recognition of the certainty that America’s strategic future will witness enemies initially of the second-rate, and eventually of the first... One may choose to recall the old aphorism that “unless you have fought the Germans, you don’t really know war.” That thought, though one hopes not its precise national example, holds for the future.

How Has War Changed Since the End of the Cold War? The answer seems to be not that much at all: The truth of the matter is that war is not changing its character, let alone miraculously accomplishing the impossible and changing its nature.

Imagining the Internet

rushmc — Mon, 10 Jan 2005 09:11:34 -0800

Imagining the Internet. What will become of the internet? And how far off have prognosticators been about it thus far? Submit your own predictions, if you dare.

Election 2004: Step Right Up and Win Some Crap

rcade — Tue, 19 Oct 2004 09:56:40 -0800

Two weeks from today, John Kerry will win the popular vote by "23% or more" over George W. Bush, according to 5 Star Psychic Advice. See if you can do better than the spirit world by predicting the electoral and popular vote totals in the second quadrennial MetaFilter Presidential Contest ...

Electorometrics?

weston — Thu, 06 May 2004 19:28:30 -0800

More Election Predictions. Not based on ideological politics, but on the way they speak, or perhaps on the way the economy moves, on top of futures markets. Are we moving toward Electorometrics?

Why 2004 will be like 1984

bonaldi — Tue, 06 Jan 2004 20:53:35 -0800

A dim view of Microsoft's 2004. Not that there aren't plenty of predictions out there, but this is the most in-depth look at the new face of our favourite anti-competitor I've seen yet.

Phillip K. Dick is God

Tlogmer — Sat, 11 Oct 2003 04:48:19 -0800

Science fiction writers on Arnold Schwarzenegger's election as California gov. (more inside)

polyphonic HSS

luser — Wed, 12 Mar 2003 11:08:44 -0800

Based on a software analysis of 250,000 CDs for mathematical patterns, and further analysis of the last 5 years of Billboards' Top 30, Polyphonic HMI thinks they know what it takes to rock your world (i.e., cause a song to shoot up the charts). Of course, major labels are interested (NYT link, scroll halfway down). Will this cause mainstream radio to be overrun with inane, soul-crushingly similar music, and crowd out anything different or interesting? Because I wouldn't like that!

insomnia_lj — Tue, 03 Sep 2002 06:13:47 -0800

Remember that MeFi post on earthquake prediction? They did it again. There was a 4.6 quake yesterday near Santa Barbara that hit the bullseye. Compare the map of where the quake hit to the prediction map. That's at least five accurate predictions since the scientific paper (pdf) was released earlier this year.