MetaFilter posts tagged with Predictions

The Economist: The World in 2010

goodnewsfortheinsane — Sat, 14 Nov 2009 17:09:43 -0800

In 2010, Obama will have a miserable year, NATO may lose in Afghanistan, the UK gets a regime change, China needs to chill, India's factories will overtake its farms, Europe risks becoming an irrelevant museum, the stimulus will need an exit strategy, the G20 will see a challenge from the "G2", African football will unite Korea, conflict over natural resources will grow, Sarkozy will be unloved and unrivalled, the kids will come together to solve the world's problems (because their elders are unable), technology will grow ever more ubiquitous, we'll all charge our phones via USB, MBAs will be uncool, the Space Shuttle will be put to rest, and Somalia will be the worst country in the world. And so the Tens begin.

The Economist: The World in 2010. Previously: 2009, 2008, 2007. How did we do last time around? Guest contributions: President of the European Commission José Manuel Barroso lines up Europe's priorities President of Russia Dmitry Medvedev argues for dialogue and cooperation President of the Maldives Mohamed Nasheed wants his island nation to remain above water President of Indonesia Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono would like for Islam and the West to live in harmony President of South Africa Jacob Zuma says Africa should rise to the occasion Director-General of the World Health Organisation Margaret Chan predicts the development of the flu pandemic Managing director of the International Monetary Fund Dominique Strauss-Kahn explains how to prevent another crisis CEO of Yahoo! Carol Bartz believes business leaders should tap into the information flood Chairman of HSBC Stephen Green argues that the financial sector should welcome emerging economies CEO of Fiat Group and Chrysler Group Sergio Marchionne thinks greener cars require bolder action CEO/CTO of SpaceX Elon Musk says the private sector should handle space travel

Yesterday's Energy of Tomorrow...and more

Miko — Mon, 27 Jul 2009 10:05:33 -0800

Peak Oil, 1925. In 2000, 20% of new buildings will be solar equipped. By the late 1990s, 90% of the world's energy will be nuclear-generated. These and other erroneous projections are being collected as part of the Forecast Project on the website Inventing Green: The Lost History of Alternative Energy in America.

Guitar music is on its way out.

goodnewsfortheinsane — Wed, 01 Apr 2009 14:24:44 -0800

Wrong Tomorrow is a bit like Long Bets, except shorter and without the bets.

Previously on Long Bets

Some articles about expert predictions

Silver's Picks for the Silver Screen

jonp72 — Thu, 19 Feb 2009 08:34:51 -0800

He predicted a losing season for the White Sox in 2007 and foresaw that the Tampa Bay Rays would be the best team in the American League in 2008, although he wrongly predicted that the Rays would win the World Series. He also predicted Obama's 6-point victory over McCain. Now the stats guru Nate Silver is picking the Oscar winners and predicting an upset win for Taraji P. Henson in the Best Supporting Actress category.

All predictions are wrong. Or are they?

Mutant — Wed, 07 Jan 2009 02:13:13 -0800

Every year the Strategy Team at Saxo Bank, a Danish virtual bank, publishes a list of ten black swan class market events. Some of the more dramatic possibilities Saxo advance for 2009: crude trading down to $25 a barrel causing severe social unrest in Iran, the S&P 500 falling to 500, Chinese GDP approaching zero and several member states dropping the Euro. The complete 2009 list is here and for completeness their 2008 [ .pdf ] , 2007 [ .pdf ] and 2006 lists [ .pdf ] are also available. Popularised by Nassim Taleb's The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, black swan events are by definition statistical outliers. Low in probability but potentially high in impact, even in the best of times prudence would dictate market participants at least be aware of - if not plan for - all possibilities.

The unforeseen

finnb — Tue, 16 Dec 2008 04:14:25 -0800

On Dec 14, the often-linked Clay Shirky (most recently) ended his guestblogging stint at boingboing with a question for the commenters: What's going to happen in the next five years or so that will catch most of the rest of us by surprise, but not you? 142 comments so far, ranging from apocalyptic visions to thoughts on standby power and the future of Mormonism. Predicting even the near term is difficult, of course, much less anticipating the unthinkable. Still: what surprises won't be surprising you?

The future that wasn't

Kirth Gerson — Thu, 11 Dec 2008 04:01:59 -0800

The 10 worst predictions for 2008 #7 isn't actually a prediction, and #8 could still happen, but it's still a collection of Wrongness. Bill Kristol's record remains perfect.

The Economist: The World in 2009

goodnewsfortheinsane — Thu, 27 Nov 2008 19:00:30 -0800

In 2009, a remarkably gifted politician, confronting a remarkably difficult set of challenges, will have to learn to say "No we can't", Guantánamo will prove a moral minefield, economic recovery will be invisible to the naked eye, governments must prepare for the day they stop financial guarantees, we will judge our commitment to sustainability, scientists should research the causes of religion, we will all be potential online paparazzi, English will have more words than any other language (but it's meaningless), Afghanistan will see a surge of Western (read: American) troops, Iran will continue its nuclear quest while diplomacy lies in shambles, the sea floor is the new frontier, we should rethink aging, (non-)voters will continue to thwart the European project -- but cheap travel will continue to buoy it -- though it has some unfinished business to attend to, and a Nordic defence bond will blossom.

The Economist: The World in 2009. Previously: 2008, 2007. How did we do last time around? And what will we probably be wrong about this time? Guest contributions: President of Brazil Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva seeks greater international cooperation and sees a growing global role for the larger emerging economies. Queen of Jordan Rania calls for education reform. Prime Minister of Australia Kevin Rudd calls upon mid-size powers to be creative and effective with their influence. Prime Minister of Spain José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero emphasizes the importance of transparency and solidarity in Europe. Prime Minister of Ukraine Yulia Tymoshenko, wedged between Russia and the EU, cites historical precedent. Former Secretary of State of the United States, Nobel Peace Prize laureate Henry Kissinger argues America will be less powerful, but will still be the essential nation in creating a new world order. Mayor Boris Johnson of London argues against over-regulation. Elections to watch: Brazil, Chile, European Parliament, Germany, Indonesia, Israel, Japan. Also: Russia will enter its first real difficult years under Putin, Brown might not make it, we won't ban nukes but we can pretend, Ontario will receive economic help from other provinces, Australians will grow ever more thirsty, and Britain needs to make stuff again. World in 2009 blog.

Read about 2063 as imagined in 1963

jonson — Mon, 14 Apr 2008 21:24:09 -0800

In 1963, General Dynamics Astronautics asked politicians, scientists, and military commanders to speculate on the potential state of the world in 2063, recording all these speculations in a book, and sealing it in a time capsule that was lost during the demolition of the General Dynamics Astronautics building. Thankfully, the entirety of the book is available as a download thanks to the fine folks at Paleo-Future. Found Via.

Life in the Future

caddis — Mon, 24 Mar 2008 09:57:02 -0800

40 Years in the Future - Another "what will life look like in the future" article. This one from Mechanix Illustrated, 1968. (via Boing Boing)

What does the future hold?

athenian — Fri, 08 Feb 2008 09:44:56 -0800

The Cabinet Office in the UK has published "Future Strategic Challenges for Britain" [full pdf, summary pdf, website], a 180-page document which summarises current futures thinking in the UK Government, with a horizon of about 20 years. It includes predictions on big issues such as democratic participation, foreign affairs, climate change, family life and public services.

The World of Tomorrow

Soup — Wed, 12 Dec 2007 14:13:38 -0800

The Middleton Family at the New York World's Fair (1939). The Original Futurama. Featuring Elektro, the Smoking Robot.

The Economist: The World in 2008

goodnewsfortheinsane — Wed, 28 Nov 2007 17:46:56 -0800

In 2008, China will fail to ride the Olympics wave and improve its worldwide image, the US will vote mainly on health (barring a terrorist attack or a recession), usher in a period of pragmatic caution and toast to it over a nice Merlot, the culture wars will go global, Israel may decide that it must act alone against Iran, African gangs will prosper, UK politics will be re-established as a spectator sport, we will finally quit oil - and want yet more of it, the potato will make a comeback, an island will be moved for the sake of the Euro, we will rush to give for free what others charge for, U will HAV CASH, robots will explore the seas of Earth, which is round, by the way, pigs will fly, and we will like totally love it (don't we?).

The Economist: The World in 2008. So how will we predict the future in the future? And how did we do last time round? Guest contributions: Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon of the United Nations President Nicolas Sarkozy of France Mayor Michael Bloomberg of New York City Angelina Jolie, goodwill ambassador to the UNHCR Michel Platini, UEFA president Peter Diamandis, chairman of the X PRIZE Foundation

But what about the flying cars?

straight — Fri, 20 Jul 2007 13:38:11 -0800

Why science fiction is hard. Inspired by reports of a creative new, Rube-Goldberg spamming technique in World of Warcraft, MetaFilter's own Charlie Stross imagines trying to explain gold farming to someone from 1977. (Previously: 1, 2, 3)

Your graduate research team in Guatemala - just checking in.

phaedon — Sat, 28 Apr 2007 11:24:00 -0800

Paleo-Future: A look into the future that never was. More recent predictions include the future according to AT&T, Apple's Knowledge Navigator and Bill Gates on the Future of Police Work.

People will live for 50 years!

antifuse — Thu, 19 Apr 2007 07:03:13 -0800

In the year 1900, Ladies Home Journal writer John Elfreth Watkins Jr wrote an article entitled What May Happen In The Next 100 Years". This is apparently what the most learned, conservative men of the "greatest institutions of science and learning" had to say about the coming hundred years.

The Economist: The World in 2007

goodnewsfortheinsane — Sat, 02 Dec 2006 11:10:41 -0800

In 2007 there will be lots of anniversaries, the web will keep killing the television star, the popcorn will taste familiar, humankind will come closer still to achieving immortality, and text messaging will conquer Africa. And although the spread of democracy is stalling (don't worry however - the Swedes still win (pdf)), it's still down to George Bush.

The Economist: The World in 2007.

Shop Class as Soulcraft

Kwantsar — Thu, 07 Sep 2006 19:53:20 -0800

Much of the “jobs of the future” rhetoric surrounding the eagerness to end shop class and get every warm body into college, thence into a cubicle, implicitly assumes that we are heading to a “post-industrial” economy in which everyone will deal only in abstractions. Yet trafficking in abstractions is not the same as thinking...

Future events such as these will affect you in the future!

Astro Zombie — Tue, 11 Apr 2006 05:48:52 -0800

Can you prove it didn't happen? Best known for his work on Plan 9 from Outer Space, the Amazing Criswell had quite a career outside of his rare appearances in film. The spit-curled, stentorian psychic had a penchant for bizarre predictions, was the source for music by Mae West, and inspired some damned interesting writing.

I predict another long year

MiltonRandKalman — Thu, 29 Dec 2005 14:38:11 -0800

Look...look into the LCD Ball. Divine the great spirits of tech and gaze into 2006. The new year is only a few days away, how hard is it to guess into next week?

Expertise

semmi — Thu, 01 Dec 2005 12:26:34 -0800

Everybody's an expert, but does expertise promote better predictions?

Watching Rita, some models

hank — Thu, 22 Sep 2005 18:15:41 -0800

Noted in the live stream from this TV station This is the "Local2 News" live tv stream (which has been pointed to in three previous MeFi threads about other news stories. Currently they've from time to time been showing storm track predictive models (which they say are their own development). I'd rather have pointers to more models than the TV station's occasional glimpses, but, this is the most varied set of storm track predictions I've seen. Anyone know where they're getting them?

A Brief History of the Apocalypse

brundlefly — Wed, 22 Jun 2005 12:50:20 -0800

The sky is falling! From Romulus to Ronald Reagan: a comprehensive timeline of apocalyptic predictions. If you decide to put some stock in one or more of these prophecies, you may need to do some preparatory research.

Real-Money Pope Pools

pruner — Sat, 09 Apr 2005 23:21:04 -0800

PopaPOOLooza – a capitalistic approach to Popapalooza (discussed here).

Googlewhack is so, like, whenever

Sparx — Mon, 04 Apr 2005 21:36:55 -0800

What's hot in technogeekery? Match your predictions with Yahoo's ongoing search stats using $10,000 fake dollars as investment capital. Is this how Yahoo is going to steal Google's mindshare - or just another pointless thing to do with search engines?