Nassim Nicholas Taleb's book, Antifragile, was release at the end of November. His previous books centered on describing the problems of prediction. The new book is a conversational, sometimes diatribe, about, "How to live in a world we don't understand". [more inside]
A look behind the surprising amount of CGI used during the production of Black Swan. [slyt] [nsfw] [spoilers]
That guy who predicted the big one? Don't listen to him. Stern School of Business (NYU) Professor Nouriel Roubini (wiki : twitter : prev : prev : prev) made waves when he predicted the Great Recession, but not all of his predictions have panned out. This needn't be a surprise, however: Predicting the Next Big Thing: Success as a Signal of Poor Judgment outlines how those who make big, accurate predictions are often worse than the general public at making predictions in general. [more inside]
Darren Aronofsky's Black Swan has entered a long line of ballet movies to critical acclaim, Golden Globe nominations and Oscar buzz. But what do ballerinas think of it?
Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of the award-winning book The Black Swan, (previously), was interviewed recently by Charlie Rose: A conversation about economics with Nassim Taleb (as well as Time Magazine.) Taleb is more pessimistic than Nouriel Roubini, (previously, previously) who thinks that the total sum for this current global meltdown may be somewhere between 10-20 Trillion US dollars.
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable by Nassim Taleb is out. Reviews in the Wall Street Journal, LA Times, and Financial Times. Just in time with those of us with a love of Hume's problem of induction, non-Gaussian distributions and financial intellectualism. Read an early draft of chapter 16, The Bell Curve, That Great Intellectual Fraud. Read Taleb's "philisophical and literary notebook." Then, in a feat of metanarrative rarely seen outside of Metatalk, read his comments on comments on the book. Previously on Metafilter: Languagehat has already made his thoughts on Taleb known, it wasn't pretty, and someone with "vested interests in Taleb" responded. Taleb, refreshingly, does not shy away from debates about his work.
Malcom Gladwell's got a new one in the New Yorker about a guy whose investment strategy positions him to profit from unlikely and scary random catastrophes like 9/11. Its' not on newyorker.com, but the story's subject was kind enough to scan it and post it.