Researchers at the
New England Complex Systems Institute say they've uncovered a pattern that triggers riots wherever it's found. What is that pattern?
The price of food. When it rises to a certain level, social unrest & violence are soon to follow. According to their calculations the food price index is due to peak in August of 2013, assuming no corrective action is taken. The original paper is
here.
posted by scalefree
on Aug 21, 2011 -
49 comments
Plunging into the shadows: "In
thinly traded, lightly regulated and untransparent markets,
the bold can make an awful lot of money—and
they can lose it on an even more extravagant scale... In today's caffeine-fuelled dealing rooms, a barely regulated private-equity group could very well borrow money from syndicates of private lenders, including hedge funds, to spend on taking public companies private. At each stage,
risks can be converted into securities, sliced up, repackaged, sold on and sliced up again. The endless opportunities to
write contracts on underlying debt instruments explains why
the outstanding value of credit-derivatives contracts has rocketed to $26 trillion—$9 trillion more than six months ago, and seven times as much as in 2003."
posted by kliuless
on Sep 24, 2006 -
27 comments
The Logic of Diversity "A new book,
The Wisdom of Crowds [
..:] by
The New Yorker columnist James Surowiecki, has recently popularized the idea that groups can, in some ways, be smarter than their members, which is superficially similar to
Page's results. While Surowiecki gives many examples of what one might call collective cognition, where groups out-perform isolated individuals, he really has only one explanation for this phenomenon, based on one of his examples: jelly beans [
...] averaging together many independent, unbiased guesses gives a result that is probably closer to the truth than any one guess. While true — it's the
central limit theorem of statistics — it's far from being the only way in which
diversity can be beneficial in problem solving."
(Three-Toed Sloth)
posted by kliuless
on Jun 20, 2005 -
6 comments
Dancing with Systems: What to do when systems resist change. Is an excerpt from the late Systems Theorist and Enviromentalist Donella Meadow's unfinished last book. There is beautiful information here. If you are confused and wondering about some of the ideas that has infused the world-wide peace, enviromental, social justice and anti-globalization movements (That is of course Globalization as defined by the Washington Consensus policies) you would be very hard pressed to find a better place to start.
Here are points in the essay.
Listen to the wisdom of the system.
Expose your mental models to the open air.
Stay humble. Stay a learner.
Honor and protect information.
Locate responsibility in the system.
Make feedback policies for feedback systems.
Pay attention to what is important, not just what is quantifiable.
Go for the good of the whole.
Expand time horizons.
Expand thought horizons.
Expand the boundary of caring.
Celebrate complexity.
Hold fast to the goal of goodness.
posted by thedailygrowl
on Jan 18, 2003 -
9 comments
