MetaFilter posts tagged with cycles

Hyperinflation in Zimbabwe wasn't all it appeared to be

Mutant — Tue, 22 Sep 2009 04:58:55 -0800

First Zimbabwe formally abandoned their currency, then received assistance from The IMF, and now now we're seeing inflation in that nation easing to an acceptable rate of 0.04% per month. So it's fair to ask, is hyperinflation in Zimbabwe is a thing of the past? There are five criteria seen in every documented case of hyperinflation; specifically

The population keeps most wealth in non financial assets
Any financial wealth is held in non local currency, and prices are quoted in that currency
Sales on credit explicitly price in expected inflation
Wages and interest rates are explicitly linked to inflation
Inflation of over 100% during a three year period is documented

So what was really behind Zimbabwe's remarkable - and devastating - hyperinflation? No, it wasn't imprudent monetary policy, nor was it unwise fiscal policy, it was something more base and easily understood. Hyperinflation in Zimbabwe was mostly caused by corruption, government officials and insiders enriching themselves at the cost of others. But amid all this good news, Zimbabwe's ruling elite don't like losing power, and there are genuine fears a return to the "bad old days" is just a matter of time.

To Cape Town..

fire&wings — Fri, 28 Aug 2009 09:55:49 -0800

The Big Africa Cycle. Peter Gostelow is cycling from Dorset, England to Cape Town to raise funds for The Against Malaria Foundation. And it's not his first big adventure. His "Long Ride Home" a 3 year cycle journey from Japan to England saw him cover over 48,000km unsupported and largely alone. Along the way he had his bike stolen by a crazy Nepalese butcher, lost half his belongings down a gorge in Tajikistan, had a run in with Iranian shepherds, and sneaked across Tibet, before being caught, fined and sent back. Of course, he cycled on. The Long Ride Home produced some very special photography (some collected highlights here and here, as well as images of Camping Wild and of his bike) and his latest adventure down through Europe and into Africa promises more of the same. You can follow him on his blog, Flickr stream, and on Twitter.

MUM's the word: The Museum of Menstruation and Women's Health

maudlin — Wed, 27 May 2009 16:54:49 -0800

"May God close your horable museum." Because I can't believe this has never been the subject of a full post here before, although it keeps popping up in comments: The Museum of Menstruation and Women's Health. The inimitable Harry Finley has assembled a dizzying and oddly comprehensive site. It may be a bit much to take in one go (dilute, dilute, OK?), but you might dip in at: menstrual slapping; patent medicines; facts of life booklets; the Little Doozee; pre-twentieth century menstrual products and practices; Lysol douching, yay and nay; or the tour of the museum inside Harry's house (now closed). Also: cats, because Harry likes cats.

Why the US won't see hyperinflation

Mutant — Wed, 13 May 2009 01:16:13 -0800

The Bulls vs. Bears? The incessant back and forth between equity market longs and shorts is well known to most retail investors via a variety of distribution channels; financial television, the print media, online news. But the really big market battle, one with the potential to impact the entire US economy, happens, as is usual in finance, just out of sight of retail eyes ... Not seen since the 80's, Bond Vigilantes is a phrase applied to institutional class investors who purchase government treasuries to satisfy their long dated obligations. Cognizant of the risks of inflation, they actively demand compensation in real terms for their investments. In recent weeks they have caused a UK government bond auction to fail, and have driven US bond yields higher. But even as Bond Vigilantes drive interest rates higher, the US Treasury is actively purchasing securities in the open market. This is, by any measure, an epic battle, one taking place almost sight unseen and one with very high stakes: can Ben Bernanke and the yet unseen US economic recovery tolerate higher bond yields? Speaking of the power of Bond Vigilantes to compel honesty in government spending, Clinton policy advisor James Carville, was famously quoted: "I used to think if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the president or the Pope or a .400 hitter. But now I want to come back as the bond market. You can intimidate everybody"

To everything there is a season and this is true of Economics

Mutant — Fri, 06 Mar 2009 05:27:10 -0800

Everybody knows the economy and thus the markets move in cycles. Economic expansion naturally leads to contraction, driven by credit and business cycles. But are economic booms followed by busts inevitable? At Business School today we accept and even teach cycles, for example the Kitchin inventory cycle (three to five years in length, first postulated by Joseph Kitchin in 1923), the Juglar fixed investment cycle (seven to eleven years in length, discovered by French physcian Clement Juglar in 1860) and the Kuznets infrastructue investment cycle (fifteen to twenty five years in length, postulated by Nobel Laureate Simon Kuznets), but could there be longer wave cycles dominating and driving these higher frequency waves? Nikolai Kondratieff was a Russian economist who favoured a holistic view, believing that efficient forecasts of economic activity and thus the markets had to integrate social and cultural trends. This broad perspective convinced him that amid the apparent chaos of the capital markets, long term unifying processes existed which could be leveraged for forecasting purposes. Kondratieff believed capitalism followed forty to sixty year cycles of economic growth followed by depression. These cycles are now known as "Kondratiev waves". Kondratieff waves postulate four basic "seasons" to the economic cycle; Summer, characterised by sharp increases in the money supply, leading to investment and inflation. Spring follows as the money injected into the economy during summer drives an expansion in business activity. Autumn, which sees a peak in share prices and relatively high debt levels amid slowing business activity is followed by Winter, where we observe bankruptcies and cratering share prices. To many followers of Kondratieff, the G20 are currently deep in winter [.jpg]. , and some have put together data summarising Kondratieff winters since the 1700's. While there is not much academic research corroborating Kondratieff's work, during periods of economic stress we tend to see increased interest in wave theories.

"... first by inflation and then by deflation, ..."

Mutant — Thu, 20 Nov 2008 04:28:22 -0800

Tangible evidence of deflation? The prices of commodities, houses and a wide range of consumer goods have collapsed, with observers predicting continued declines. While many point back to The Great Depression as an example of damaging deflation, the recession of 1920-1921, a frequently overlooked period in economic history, is perhaps the best example we've got of a deflationary wave similar to what might now taking place. During the period 1920 to 1921, wholesale prices declined some 36%, "the largest one year decline on record" (Vernon, 2007)¹ [.pdf] . By contrast, US CPI declined 1% for the month of October alone (roughly 13% annualised), the largest drop observed in 61 years, and a rate that may accelerate as The Great Unwinding continues. Deflation: The Good, The Bad and The Ugly. Excellent single link deflation Q&A. ¹Vernon, J., R., 2007, The 1920-21 Deflation: The Role of Aggregate Supply, Economic Inquiry, Volume 29 Issue 3, pp 572 - 580

Why everything new in finance has already been new at least once before

Mutant — Thu, 08 May 2008 04:27:16 -0800

The year was 1978. The US Dollar was collapsing, inflation was beginning to surge, the American economy was on the brink of recession and many warned of the perils of easy money. Needless to say, Arthur Burns, 10th Chairman of the US Federal Reserve, had a tough job. While Burns is widely credited with igniting the late 70's inflationary fires, it was G. William Miller, the 11th Federal Reserve Chairman who poured gasoline on the flames. Before Miller's tenure was complete inflation had peaked at roughly 13% pa and American wealth was being destroyed at an unprecedented rate. Commentators at the time compared America to Germany's Wiemar republic, often employing colourful phrases such as "banana republic" Stern fiscal medicine was needed and the 12th Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Paul Volcker was just the man to do it. Before "Tall Paul" Volcker's reign was over inflation had been markedly reduced - down to 3.2% in 1983 - but at a price. The United States endured a long, deep recession, driven by high interest rates and the highest level of unemployment since 1934. However many economists consider Volcker's remedy, his fiscal discipline as laying a solid foundation for the economic success of the late 80's and early 90's. So the year is 2008. The US Dollar is collapsing, inflation is beginning to surge, the United States is on the brink of recession and some are warning about the dangers of easy money. Will the legacy of the 14th Chairman of the Federal Reserve be Ben Bernanke as Arthur Burns or Ben Bernanke as Paul Volcker? Remember, there is no right or wrong answer. But please do try to avoid wearisome and inevitably grim (not to mention, oft repeated!!) predictions of impending economic disaster. The long view, the history of finance tells us not only has the United States been presented with similar, arguably identical problems in the past, we have dealt with them effectively. These times are hardly unique. We will get through them just fine.

Whatever it is, it’s better in the wind.

Smart Dalek — Mon, 19 Mar 2007 06:13:41 -0800

40 years ago, the Vicious Cycles motorcycle club assaulted a construction worker before taking to the road. Fortunately, filmmakers Chuck Menville (father of voice artist Scott Menville) and Len Janson were on hand to film the gang's misdeeds. Menville and Janson's picture would ultimately become part of a trilogy, with Blaze Glory and Sargent Swell of the Mounties produced wit similar eye-catching style. Decades later, the filmmakers' work would be echoed in another tale of conflict, in addition to a product-themed homage to more recent hipster subculture.

walrus — Fri, 01 Nov 2002 11:48:34 -0800

Google Compute is a distributed computing project involving users of the google toolbar. It's a light application which uses idle processor cycles to analyse data for "carefully selected charitable projects, with the guiding principle being to help humanity and advance scientific knowledge".