MetaFilter posts tagged with disease and illness

291 diseases and injuries + 67 risk factors + 1,160 non-fatal complications = 650 million estimates of how we age, sicken, and die

hat — Fri, 14 Dec 2012 11:08:08 -0800

As humans live longer, what ails us isn't necessarily what kills us: five data visualizations of how we age, sicken, and die. Causes of death by age, sex, region, and year. Heat map of leading causes and risks by region. Changes in leading causes and risks between 1990 and 2010. Healthy years lost to disability vs. life expectancy in 1990 and 2010. Uncertainties of causes and risks. From the team for the massive Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2010. The data visualizations page also includes a large number of static figures from the GBD 2010 study. The GBD 2010 team at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), an independent global health research center at the University of Washington, "spent almost 5 years building [the database of causes of death]; we have included almost 800 million deaths from 1950 to 2010, and the data come from different sources," resulting in "the biggest database for cause of death analysis in the world," according to Rafael Lozano at the University of Washington. The GBD 2010 includes:

291 diseases and injuries
67 risk factors
1,160 sequelae (nonfatal health consequences)
Estimates for 21 regions
Estimates for 20 age groups

Takeaway points from the press release (emphasis mine):

Child mortality has dropped by more than 60%, falling "so quickly that it has beaten every published prediction," though diarrhea and other infectious diseases still kill well over a million children under the age of 5 every year.
Deaths among adults aged 15 to 49 increased by 44% between 1970 and 2010, "in part because of increases in violence and the ongoing challenge of HIV/AIDS."
Undernutrition has "successfully been cut by two-thirds," and now physical inactivity and macronutrient overnutrition contribute to a 10%-and-rising fraction of the disease burden.

However,

The trends identified in GBD 2010 occur across regions with one notable exception: sub-Saharan Africa, where infectious diseases, childhood illnesses, and maternal causes of death account for as much as 70% of the burden of disease. By comparison, these conditions account for only one-third of the burden in south Asia and Oceania, and less than 20% in all other regions.

Research findings from the main publication summary (emphasis mine):

In 2010, the three leading risk factors for global disease burden were high blood pressure [...]; followed by tobacco smoking, including secondhand smoke [...]; and alcohol use [...] This reflects a substantial change from 1990 when the leading risk factors were childhood underweight [...]; followed by household air pollution from use of solid fuels [...]; and tobacco smoking, including secondhand smoke [...].
Regional differences are significant. While much of the world is burdened by obesity and high body mass index, underweight is still the leading risk factor in sub‐Saharan Africa. Other prevalent risk factors in the region include household air pollution and nonexclusive and discontinued breastfeeding.
Although child undernutrition has fallen significantly as a risk factor for all ages, it remained the leading risk factor worldwide in 2010 for children under 5, accounting for 12.4% of global DALYs [disability‐adjusted life years], followed by nonexclusive or discontinued breastfeeding at 7.6%.
A number of risks that primarily affect childhood communicable diseases, including unsafe water and sanitation and micronutrient deficiencies, declined in significance in the past 20 years, with unsafe water and sanitation accounting for only 0.9% of global DALYs in 2010.
At the same time, GBD 2010 findings show the importance of household air pollution from solid fuels and ambient particulate matter pollution as major risk factors. One or both rank in the top 10 as causes of disease burden in 13 of the 21 regions. In south Asia, they are the leading cause of burden.

From the Guardian's reporting (more: 1, 2, 3):

Since 1970 the largest gains in life expectancy have taken place in the Maldives (27.3 years for men and 29.4 years for women) and improvements in life expectancy at birth in excess of 20 years were recorded in Bangladesh, Bhutan, Iran, and Peru. But life expectancy fell by one to seven years in Zimbabwe and Lesotho, where populations were severely affected by HIV/Aids, and for men in Ukraine and Belarus, where an alcohol crisis took hold.

If you'd like to read the papers themselves, the full text is currently available for free (but registration required) at The Lancet. In addition to the data visualizations, the IHME provides GBD 2010 publication summaries: Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

Healthy life expectancy for 187 countries, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

Age‐specific and sex‐specific mortality in 187 countries, 1970–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

Years lived with disability (YLDs) for 1,160 sequelae of 289 diseases and injuries, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

Disability‐adjusted life years (DALYs) for 291 diseases and injuries in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

Common values in assessing health outcomes from disease and injury: disability weights measurement study for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010
Each of the data visualizations again:

Causes of death by age, sex, region, and year
Heat map of leading causes and risks by region
Changes in leading causes and risks between 1990 and 2010
Healthy years lost to disability vs. life expectancy in 1990 and 2010
Uncertainties of causes and risks

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation adds,

The findings are being announced at the Royal Society in London on Dec. 14 and published in The Lancet, the first time the journal has dedicated an entire triple issue to one study.

The Lancet includes The story of GBD 2010: a “super-human” effort:

“Running the programs to map the data to our cause list of 291 causes and correcting the bias can take days, even using a powerful cluster of more than 100 computers. The data that we have to store after the modelling process can take 3 terabytes.” [Rafael] Lozano estimates that the storage needed for the causes of death data was 400 times bigger than that for GBD 1990 [...] Majid Ezzati, chair in global and environmental health at the School of Public Health, Imperial College London, UK, told The Lancet, As researchers, we tend to believe that more ‘data’ are better than less. I still believe so. But more data, but not all the perfect data we could wish for, means that we need to fundamentally think differently about when to stop searching for more and how to use it [...] The study brought out the well-known but far too frequently overlooked issue that people of different scientific traditions—clinicians, basic scientists, epidemiologists, and quantitative scientists—think and speak differently about the same problem. This can of course be a very powerful resource for bringing together different ways of looking at a problem and solving in the most comprehensive and interesting way—a true systems approach. It can also be a challenge, and at times a source of tension.

(Previously on the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation: Is there a market for years?)

Turn Your Head and Oink

hermitosis — Sun, 14 Jan 2007 19:38:22 -0800

What disease does your pig have? Mine has Porcine Epidemic Diahorroea!

Is H5N1 flu transitioning to human-to-human transmission?

chakalakasp — Fri, 02 Dec 2005 01:30:31 -0800

Is H5N1 flu transitioning to a human-to-human illness? Recent reports of familial clusters suggest that it may be, though there are certainly other possible explanations, such as families living in environments contaminated by virus-laden bird feces. On the other hand, it would seem that epidemiologists are growing increasingly interested in the possibility that these clusters are indicative of human-to-human transmissions. Further, the virus may be inching towards being asymptomatic, which isn't as good as it sounds: if people can carry the virus and transmit it to others without showing symptoms, it will be very difficult to impossible to tell who is a vector and highly difficult to control any emerging epidemic.

Unconfirmed mini-outbreak of H5N1 in China

chakalakasp — Wed, 23 Nov 2005 17:56:51 -0800

China isn't known for being open about most things, including the spread of deadly diseases. (Many will remember China's original attempt to cover up SARS. As the International Society for Infectious Diseases reports, a prominent WHO virologist has made a claim that China has now experienced at least 300 human avian flu deaths and is actively attempting to cover this information up. "We are systematically deceived," he is reported to have said. "At least 5 medical co-workers who should be reporting on the situation in the provinces were arrested, and [other] publication-willing researchers were threatened with punishments."

International ME/CFS/Fibromyalgia Awareness Day

Wulfgar! — Wed, 12 May 2004 13:47:47 -0800

May 12th is International ME/CFS/Fibromyalgia Awareness Day. If you aren't aware of these afflictions, then it's time to become so. "Fibromyalgia (FM) is an increasingly recognized chronic pain illness which is characterized by widespread musculoskeletal aches, pain and stiffness, soft tissue tenderness, general fatigue and sleep disturbances." The WebMD description. For those who live with chronic fatigue, systemic immunity problems, and long term pain, I think the rest of us, at least, owe our awareness of what these people cope with every day. Again, via the always excellent Watermark, who writes movingly of her relationship with Fibromyalgia.

WolfDaddy — Thu, 26 Sep 2002 11:57:30 -0800

For years, it's been observed that some people infected with HIV never develop full-blown AIDS. Now American and Chinese scientists think they know why. But remember kids, barebacking is still dangerous, and a cocktail is not a cure. Maybe this research will change all that.

How Safe is the Blood Supply?

ahughey — Fri, 19 Jul 2002 13:07:02 -0800

How Safe is the Blood Supply? A tainted donor infects two with HIV in Florida. The people in charge of the blood claim it's safe. But recent books and documentaries raise serious questions.

Mystery Illness

snowgoon — Tue, 21 May 2002 08:17:50 -0800

Mystery Illness such a mystery? Help needed! (old news, new information?) OK, I'm going to try and do this without naming names... The British troops in Afghanistan have been struck down by a mystery illness recently, with an investigation finding that the illness was just a "winter vomiting" bug.
I've heard different. The source may have been an Al Qaeda terrorist who had been captured. The 'mystery illness' may have been caught when the British or US government used biological warfare to make it easier to find and capture members of Al Qaeda. Can anyone help verify this? I should stress I only have word of mouth from a friend of a friend. All very speculative, but I've not been able to find anything else on this... yet...

Use MetaFilter to prevent Alzheimer's disease.

DragonBoy — Sun, 09 Jul 2000 19:34:21 -0800

Use MetaFilter to prevent Alzheimer's disease. It seems that a love of reading may help reduce the risk of getting Alzheimer's disease.

People with more education, in contrast, seem at lower risk of Alzheimer's. A study presented Sunday of Swedish twins where one twin had Alzheimer's and the other was healthy suggests a love of reading [metafilter.com], as a child and adult, might be protective.