Nouriel Roubini's Global Macroeconomic and Financial Policy Site is big, broad, and pretty amazing. If you can stomach a 50 page .pdf, make sure to read the dollar-bear article: Will The Bretton Woods 2 Regime Unravel Soon? The Risk of a Hard Landing in 2005-2006.
posted by trharlan on Feb 22, 2005 - 6 comments

I.M.F. Report Says U.S. Deficits Threaten World Economy
With its rising budget deficit and ballooning trade imbalance, the United States is running up a foreign debt of such record-breaking proportions that it threatens the financial stability of the global economy, according to a report released Wednesday by the International Monetary Fund. Prepared by a team of I.M.F. economists, the report sounded a loud alarm about the shaky fiscal foundation of the United States, questioning the wisdom of the Bush administration's tax cuts and warning that large budget deficits pose "significant risks" not just for the United States but for the rest of the world. The report warns that the United States' net financial obligations to the rest of the world could be equal to 40 percent of its total economy within a few years--"an unprecedented level of external debt for a large industrial country," according to the fund, that could play havoc with the value of the dollar and international exchange rates.
From The Brookings Institute: Sustained Budget Deficits: Longer-Run U.S. Economic Performance and the Risk of Financial and Fiscal Disarray (Full Report PDF)
posted by y2karl on Jan 8, 2004 - 60 comments

The Fed is in a dangerous game with China : Chen Zhao, chief emerging markets strategist at Bank Credit Analyst Research Group, has written an article for The Financial Times, postulating that the Central Banks of the US and China are engaging in a massive reflation. When the reflation ends, however, the US may be in a world of hurt. Meanwhile, some members of the Bush administration are calling for china to let the $/Yuan exchange rate float. A prominent expert, however, expects China to continue to peg its currency. Others discuss the ramifications of a floating currency. Read yet another collection of links at the Library of Economics and Liberty.

What should happen to exchange rates? What will happen?
posted by trharlan on Aug 1, 2003 - 24 comments

What if oil was traded in euros? "Even more alarming, and completely unreported in the U.S. media, are significant monetary shifts in the reserve funds of foreign governments away from the dollar with movements towards the euro. It appears that the world community ... seems poised to respond with economic retribution if the U.S. government is regarded as an uncontrollable and dangerous superpower." An analysis of the previous link. Apologies to those I
posted by Birichini on Apr 23, 2003 - 25 comments