Warren Buffett says his favorite economic indicator (last 30sec) is the FTSI or Freight Transportation Services Index (blue line). Since 1979, across four recessions, the index "shows a strong leading relationship to the economy", with an acceleration of freight leading the economy "by an average of approximately 4 to 5 months". Explanation of the index (recommend PDF version), most recent analysis (July 2009).
posted by stbalbach on Jul 9, 2009 - 30 comments