MetaFilter posts tagged with economics and investing

All predictions are wrong. Or are they?

Mutant — Wed, 07 Jan 2009 02:13:13 -0800

Every year the Strategy Team at Saxo Bank, a Danish virtual bank, publishes a list of ten black swan class market events. Some of the more dramatic possibilities Saxo advance for 2009: crude trading down to $25 a barrel causing severe social unrest in Iran, the S&P 500 falling to 500, Chinese GDP approaching zero and several member states dropping the Euro. The complete 2009 list is here and for completeness their 2008 [ .pdf ] , 2007 [ .pdf ] and 2006 lists [ .pdf ] are also available. Popularised by Nassim Taleb's The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, black swan events are by definition statistical outliers. Low in probability but potentially high in impact, even in the best of times prudence would dictate market participants at least be aware of - if not plan for - all possibilities.

Those markets? Well, it seems they work like they are supposed to ...

Mutant — Thu, 28 Aug 2008 04:14:50 -0800

Are funds calling a bottom to the US housing market? Even as house price declines are beginning to slow, home sales may have stablised and resales look healthy, big money - $5B here, $3B there, over there $2B and lots and lots of smaller amounts - is being deployed to take housing assets off banks balance sheets.

Meanwhile, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are actually booking the biggest profits on new mortgages since 1998. It ain't over 'til it's over, but in the markets you take what you can get.

The Material Girl is now a tangible investment

Mutant — Wed, 20 Aug 2008 02:50:40 -0800

Follow the money: for the past year, the big trade was short bank stocks, and use the cash to go long oil. Massively profitable, but now that trade is unwinding. So where is the big money being invested now? Lots of places: diamonds, fine art, guitars, and Madonna.

Sir John Templeton, 1912-2008, RIP and thank you for the investing lessons.

Mutant — Wed, 09 Jul 2008 03:48:25 -0800

The simple phrase "it's different this time" are the four most expensive words in the English language. Sir John Templeton, 1912-2008, we thank you for this lesson and countless others. One of modern finance's greatest pioneers, in 1954 Sir John Templeton launched what was one of the first globally oriented mutual funds, Templeton Growth Fund. At that time, almost nobody invested outside The United States. However Templeton argued that by restricting choices to domestic securities, investors were denying themselves of the chance to markedly increase portfolio diversification, lower volatility while increasing overall returns. Today Templeton's approach to portfolio diversification is textbook at business schools. Ideas and theories he devised and put into practice decades ago led to such stunning performance that in 1999 Money Magazine called Sir John “arguably the greatest global stock picker of the century”. Over a period of forty years, Templeton Growth Fund returned an average of 14.5% per annum. In 1992, a month before his 80th birthday, Templeton sold his mutual fund empire for a reported $440 million to Franklin Resources Inc. of San Mateo, California. While still was active in the fund's strategic management, Templeton next turned his attention to religion and charitable endeavours, founding the John Templeton Foundation which he intended to "serve as a philanthropic catalyst for research on concepts and realities such as love, gratitude, forgiveness and creativity." Sir John did, however, leave those of us still learning how to invest with one final gift: Sir John Templeton's 16 Rules for Investment Success. [.pdf] Sir John Templeton, 1918-2008, RIP and Godspeed.

Popularity, therefore Authority?

Firas — Sat, 25 Feb 2006 12:52:57 -0800

John T. Reed’s analysis of Robert T. Kiyosaki’s book 'Rich Dad, Poor Dad'. [cache] Kiyosaki has spun a business empire off his book, including follow up publications, TV appearances and columns that make suprisingly broad statements about what's worth doing.

Five Years After the Bubble

trharlan — Fri, 15 Apr 2005 09:05:39 -0800

Five Years After the Bubble is a collection of ten links from the perspective of those who were neck deep in the whole thing. I found the link while reading up on Andy Kessler, who had an interesting piece in today's WSJ, and is giving away his new book.

Hans Hoppe is in trouble.

b_thinky — Sat, 12 Feb 2005 15:33:03 -0800

Hans Hoppe is in trouble. Why? In one of his lectures at UNLV, the world-renowned economist stated that homosexuals plan less for the future than heterosexuals. According to Hoppe, homosexuals tend not to have children, so they have little stake in the world beyond their own time. Other poor future planners include the very young (no concept of the future) and the very old (their time is almost up). A student filed a compaint against Hoppe for his "anti-gay" remarks, and UNLV wants to issue a letter of reprimand and force Hoppe to give up his next pay increase. So should an economics professor be forced to consider his students feelings prior to presenting economic theories? As Hoppe fights back, the libertarian community voices its support.