MetaFilter posts tagged with investing

All predictions are wrong. Or are they?

Mutant — Wed, 07 Jan 2009 02:13:13 -0800

Every year the Strategy Team at Saxo Bank, a Danish virtual bank, publishes a list of ten black swan class market events. Some of the more dramatic possibilities Saxo advance for 2009: crude trading down to $25 a barrel causing severe social unrest in Iran, the S&P 500 falling to 500, Chinese GDP approaching zero and several member states dropping the Euro. The complete 2009 list is here and for completeness their 2008 [ .pdf ] , 2007 [ .pdf ] and 2006 lists [ .pdf ] are also available. Popularised by Nassim Taleb's The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, black swan events are by definition statistical outliers. Low in probability but potentially high in impact, even in the best of times prudence would dictate market participants at least be aware of - if not plan for - all possibilities.

Poor Little Rich Kids.

gman — Thu, 20 Nov 2008 16:05:01 -0800

Influential billionaires like Carl, Thomas, Kirk, and Warren have been losing their shirts. And it's being felt around the world. Warning - First link plays video immediately and without warning.

Those markets? Well, it seems they work like they are supposed to ...

Mutant — Thu, 28 Aug 2008 04:14:50 -0800

Are funds calling a bottom to the US housing market? Even as house price declines are beginning to slow, home sales may have stablised and resales look healthy, big money - $5B here, $3B there, over there $2B and lots and lots of smaller amounts - is being deployed to take housing assets off banks balance sheets.

Meanwhile, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are actually booking the biggest profits on new mortgages since 1998. It ain't over 'til it's over, but in the markets you take what you can get.

The Material Girl is now a tangible investment

Mutant — Wed, 20 Aug 2008 02:50:40 -0800

Follow the money: for the past year, the big trade was short bank stocks, and use the cash to go long oil. Massively profitable, but now that trade is unwinding. So where is the big money being invested now? Lots of places: diamonds, fine art, guitars, and Madonna.

Sir John Templeton, 1912-2008, RIP and thank you for the investing lessons.

Mutant — Wed, 09 Jul 2008 03:48:25 -0800

The simple phrase "it's different this time" are the four most expensive words in the English language. Sir John Templeton, 1912-2008, we thank you for this lesson and countless others. One of modern finance's greatest pioneers, in 1954 Sir John Templeton launched what was one of the first globally oriented mutual funds, Templeton Growth Fund. At that time, almost nobody invested outside The United States. However Templeton argued that by restricting choices to domestic securities, investors were denying themselves of the chance to markedly increase portfolio diversification, lower volatility while increasing overall returns. Today Templeton's approach to portfolio diversification is textbook at business schools. Ideas and theories he devised and put into practice decades ago led to such stunning performance that in 1999 Money Magazine called Sir John “arguably the greatest global stock picker of the century”. Over a period of forty years, Templeton Growth Fund returned an average of 14.5% per annum. In 1992, a month before his 80th birthday, Templeton sold his mutual fund empire for a reported $440 million to Franklin Resources Inc. of San Mateo, California. While still was active in the fund's strategic management, Templeton next turned his attention to religion and charitable endeavours, founding the John Templeton Foundation which he intended to "serve as a philanthropic catalyst for research on concepts and realities such as love, gratitude, forgiveness and creativity." Sir John did, however, leave those of us still learning how to invest with one final gift: Sir John Templeton's 16 Rules for Investment Success. [.pdf] Sir John Templeton, 1918-2008, RIP and Godspeed.

He didn’t pay attention to man’s law or God’s law

Horace Rumpole — Fri, 21 Mar 2008 11:58:42 -0800

From the diamond to the street (literally) to your mailbox, one thing is absolutely certain: Nails never fails.

Buy Platinum (if you can afford $1800 per ounce)

JD Rucker — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 22:58:14 -0800

Jewelers, engine parts manufacturers, and most of all, investors are watching as platinum hits an all time high, topping $1800 per ounce. An electic supply crisis in South Africa is to blame/thank for this unprecedented rise as mines are facing limits to the amount of electricity they can use. A mining analyst said it could eventually top $2000/oz.

Unusual IRA investments

Adamchik — Fri, 13 Apr 2007 13:33:02 -0800

Sure, you can make your IRA contribution just before the deadline this year in plain old mutual funds, but did you know it is possible to put retirement money into Costa Rican hardwoods? Or income properties or perhaps even Chinese currency (not much yield there)? You can set up a self-directed IRA, where you choose the investments, which opens up quite a range of possibilities and perils. The dangers are obvious, and be sure watch the fees, though, and, of course, consult with your legal, tax, and financial advisors first.

Learn About the Stock Market While Wasting Time Online

ThePinkSuperhero — Tue, 09 Jan 2007 19:49:12 -0800

Want to learn about investing? Morningstar, an independent investment researcher, is offering 172 free online "classes" on stocks, bonds, funds, and portfolio building. And there's nifty quizzes at the end of each lesson where you can earn points that can be used for Morningstar products.

Dilbert's Rules for Investing

alms — Sun, 15 Oct 2006 19:05:18 -0800

Everything you need to know about investing in 129 words.

October Surprise

augustweed — Sun, 01 Oct 2006 14:44:43 -0800

Something wicked this way comes. There are a huge number of October 6th put options for the big indexes, just like the massive put options that took place just prior to 911. Fear the "October Surprise."

Peronal finances, or how I learned to stop worrying and invest in a 401k

knave — Tue, 01 Aug 2006 10:35:32 -0800

Get Rich Slowly, a personal finance web site (created by our jdroth), has been educational to someone who spent most of his life until now pretending financial matters don't exist. His blog is updated frequently, and contains insightful tips on living frugally, eliminating debt, saving and investing. Between his site, and another very educational site entitled I Will Teach You To Be Rich (start here), I've greatly expanded my knowledge about managing my money effectively. Perhaps most importantly, they're both consistently interesting and easy reads. [more inside]

You can't handle the truth.

I Love Tacos — Thu, 06 Apr 2006 12:33:40 -0800

Truth Markets. Invest in truthiness.

Popularity, therefore Authority?

Firas — Sat, 25 Feb 2006 12:52:57 -0800

John T. Reed’s analysis of Robert T. Kiyosaki’s book 'Rich Dad, Poor Dad'. [cache] Kiyosaki has spun a business empire off his book, including follow up publications, TV appearances and columns that make suprisingly broad statements about what's worth doing.

Shareholder activism

mullacc — Wed, 30 Nov 2005 10:17:55 -0800

Carl Icahn's Time Warner efforts find a powerful ally in "white-shoe" investment bank Lazard. Wall Street M&A advisors have been hesitant to support efforts by Icahn and his hedge fund brethren in their share-holder activist efforts for fear of alienating fee-paying corporate clients (investment banking, legal and registration fees on the Time Warner/AOL deal were approximately $300 million). By hiring Lazard, which is led by banking legend Bruce Wasserstein (1,2,3), Icahn is surely raising the intensity of his campaign against Time Warner management. Icahn has been successful in previous shareholder activist campaigns, most notably against Blockbuster (1,2), and talks a pretty mean game. Wall Street will be watching this closely - hedge fund activism is becoming a very real fear for company management/directors: Circuit City/Highfields Capital, Wendy's/Pershing, Bally's Fitness/Pardus Capital & Liberation Investment Group, Axciom/ValueAct Capital, MSC Software/ValueAct Capital (reg. required), Beazer Homes/Tontine Capital (second story on page) and more.

In Bowie We Trust... again?

me3dia — Tue, 23 Aug 2005 08:41:43 -0800

An unexpected side effect of iTunes. Remember Bowie Bonds? Introduced in 1997, bonds tied to future profits of music artists (besides Bowie, James Brown and the Isley Brothers offered them) tanked with the advent of online filesharing. Thanks to iTunes, some on Wall Street are betting that the Bowie Bond is a concept with a future.

nyse marketrac

nervousfritz — Wed, 27 Jul 2005 10:29:52 -0800

NYSE Marketrac, flash for investors.

The Watchful Investor

knave — Mon, 18 Jul 2005 13:50:10 -0800

The Watchful Investor "Bringing you the underreported, the underappreciated, and the overlooked news from the markets."
Jim Waddell created this frequently updated journal providing economic news and commentary, as well as a newsletter which gives more detailed coverage of specific market events and issues. Accessible and interesting, yet not dumbed down.

Five Years After the Bubble

trharlan — Fri, 15 Apr 2005 09:05:39 -0800

Five Years After the Bubble is a collection of ten links from the perspective of those who were neck deep in the whole thing. I found the link while reading up on Andy Kessler, who had an interesting piece in today's WSJ, and is giving away his new book.

Hans Hoppe is in trouble.

b_thinky — Sat, 12 Feb 2005 15:33:03 -0800

Hans Hoppe is in trouble. Why? In one of his lectures at UNLV, the world-renowned economist stated that homosexuals plan less for the future than heterosexuals. According to Hoppe, homosexuals tend not to have children, so they have little stake in the world beyond their own time. Other poor future planners include the very young (no concept of the future) and the very old (their time is almost up). A student filed a compaint against Hoppe for his "anti-gay" remarks, and UNLV wants to issue a letter of reprimand and force Hoppe to give up his next pay increase. So should an economics professor be forced to consider his students feelings prior to presenting economic theories? As Hoppe fights back, the libertarian community voices its support.

One man's retirement math: Social Security wins

Postroad — Mon, 27 Dec 2004 11:09:00 -0800

One man's retirement math: Social Security wins At the heart of President Bush's plan to sell Social Security private accounts is a simple notion: You're always better off investing your retirement money than letting the government do it. By doing it yourself, you can stow some money in the stock market, and over the long run will get a better return on that investment than today's Social Security system offers. The idea is broadly accepted. That's why the administration's plan to partially privatize the system sounds appealing to many. But that better return won't always happen. Just ask Stanley Logue of San Diego. For 45 years, the defense-industry analyst paid into the system until his retirement in 1994. But with all the recent hoopla over reform, Mr. Logue, a Massachusetts Institute of Technology graduate, decided to go back and check his own records. Would he have done better investing his money than the bureaucrats at the Social Security Administration?

Damn it Jim, I'm an Accountant Not a Cook

willnot — Mon, 28 Jun 2004 21:29:14 -0800

America's Black Budget - the Manipulation of Mortgage and Financial Markets Investors benefit from understanding the federal budget, credit policies and covert intervention that drive markets -- often overriding fundamental economics. How has the US governmental apparatus become so powerful in the marketplace and what does it mean to the health of our economy? How unstable is the mortgage bubble and where are the opportunities for investors if the bubble bursts?

Pop Goes the Bubble

willnot — Wed, 02 Jun 2004 16:54:16 -0800

Is a Market Disaster Immement? The Federal Reserve has confirmed [a] Stock Market Crash forecast by raising the Money Supply (M-3) by crisis proportions, up another 46.8 billion this past week. What awful calamity do they see? Something is up. This is unprecedented, unheard-of pre-catastrophe M-3 expansion. M-3 is up an amount that we've never seen before without a crisis

What is the future of the US stock market?

muppetboy — Fri, 14 May 2004 18:14:16 -0800

Why Stock Markets Crash : Critical Events in Complex Financial Systems. Professor Didier Sornette of UCLA has some very interesting things to say about stock markets. In his book, he explains how his "theory of cooperative herding and imitation [...] has detected the existence of a clear signature of herding in the decay of the US S&P500 index since August 2000 with high statistical significance, in the form of strong log-periodic components." Although his timing has been just a bit early, the theory, the predictions to date and the pictures are all pretty uncanny. This is easily the most interesting book on the stock market I have ever read and provides interesting and believable hypotheses about things I never imagined could have rigorous explanations. For an overview, here is an interview with the author.

Warren Buffett's Annual Letter

BlueTrain — Mon, 08 Mar 2004 13:02:56 -0800

Warren Buffett's annual letter to his shareholders is worth a read.