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	<title>MetaFilter posts tagged with markets</title>
	<link>http://www.metafilter.com/tags/markets</link>
	<description>Posts tagged with 'markets' at MetaFilter.</description>
	<pubDate>Thu, 17 Dec 2009 03:55:21 -0800</pubDate> <lastBuildDate>Thu, 17 Dec 2009 03:55:21 -0800</lastBuildDate>

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	<item>
		<title>Used for centuries, end of lifed October 31st 2018 - The Cheque</title>
		<link>http://www.metafilter.com/87556/Used%2Dfor%2Dcenturies%2Dend%2Dof%2Dlifed%2DOctober%2D31st%2D2018%2DThe%2DCheque</link>
		<description> They were first known as &lt;i&gt;&quot;Praescriptiones&quot;&lt;/i&gt; and used by The Romans from around 100BC &lt;sup&gt;1&lt;/sup&gt;. Employed by Perisans of &lt;a href=&quot;http://i-cias.com/e.o/sassanid.htm&quot;&gt;the Sassanid Dynasty&lt;/a&gt; during the third century, they were then known as &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.muslimheritage.com/topics/default.cfm?ArticleID=598&quot;&gt;&lt;i&gt;&quot;Saqqs&quot;&lt;/i&gt;&lt;/a&gt;. They have been found &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.lib.cam.ac.uk/cgi-bin/GOLD/thumbs?class_mark=T-S_Ar.30.184&quot;&gt;in Egyptian ruins&lt;/a&gt; dating from the 12th century, about the same time as The Knights Templar bolstered their use by &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.reddit.com/r/todayilearned/comments/a5flu/til_the_knights_templar_invented_cheques/&quot;&gt;issuing written instruments, redeemable for cash&lt;/a&gt; to pilgrims bound for holy land bound. Even so, it took another five centuries for &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.thefreedictionary.com/Cheques&quot;&gt;&lt;i&gt;the cheque&lt;/i&gt;&lt;/a&gt; to be adopted by England. Closely related to &lt;a href=&quot;http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_of_exchange&quot;&gt;&lt;i&gt;Bills of Exchange&lt;/i&gt;&lt;/a&gt;,  cheques were originally issued by &lt;a href=&quot;http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/Goldsmiths%27&quot;&gt;&lt;i&gt;Goldsmiths&lt;/i&gt;&lt;/a&gt;, who allowed depositors to issue negotiable claims - &lt;i&gt;cheques&lt;/i&gt; - against gold held on deposit.  Later codified by &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.opsi.gov.uk/RevisedStatutes/Acts/ukpga/1882/cukpga_18820061_en_2#pt2-pb1-l1g3&quot;&gt;successive acts of Parliament&lt;/a&gt;,  cheques have remained largely unchanged for centuries.  In fact the last big innovation we&apos;ve witnessed with cheques was the introduction of &lt;a href=&quot;http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnetic_ink_character_recognition&quot;&gt;&lt;i&gt;magnetic ink&lt;/i&gt;&lt;/a&gt; some 53 years ago.  

However with &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.tmcnet.com/voip/ip-communications/articles/28212-report-usage-online-payment-systems-the-rise.htm&quot;&gt;the rise of electronic payment systems&lt;/a&gt; cheque use has declined sharply, to the point where &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.paymentscouncil.org.uk/about_us/&quot;&gt;The Payments Council&lt;/a&gt;, the organisation responsible for operating the UK&apos;s interbank payments systems,  will  &lt;a href=&quot;http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/banking_and_finance/article6959696.ece&quot;&gt;retire cheques effective 31 October 2018 &lt;/a&gt;.  

&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/s/1186480_fury_over_banks_cheque_plan&quot;&gt;Pensioners&lt;/a&gt; and others &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-1236508/DAILY-MAIL-COMMENT-Our-selfish-bankers.html&quot;&gt;critical of bankers&lt;/a&gt; were unimpressed by the move,  while &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.mailonsunday.co.uk/news/article-1236358/Cheques-disappear-decade--older-people-suffer-consequences.html&quot;&gt;banks supported the idea&lt;/a&gt;, citing the high &lt;a href=&quot;http://business.rediff.com/report/2009/dec/17/uk-to-phase-out-cheques.htm&quot;&gt;per cheque processing cost&lt;/a&gt;.

&lt;small&gt;&lt;small&gt;&lt;sup&gt;1&lt;/sup&gt; as documented by Durant &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.scribd.com/doc/20351615/The-Story-of-Civilization-03-Caesar-and-Christ&quot;&gt;in &lt;i&gt;The Story of Civilization&lt;/i&gt;,  Vol 3, &lt;i&gt;Caesar and Christ&lt;/i&gt;&lt;/a&gt;.
&lt;/small&gt;&lt;/small&gt; </description>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 17 Dec 2009 03:55:21 -0800</pubDate>
		<category>banks</category>
		<category>Check</category>
		<category>Checks</category>
		<category>Cheque</category>
		<category>Cheques</category>
		<category>economics</category>
		<category>finance</category>
		<category>HowBanksWork</category>
		<category>markets</category>
		<category>UKBanks</category>
		<dc:creator>Mutant</dc:creator>
	</item>
      <item>
		<title>George Soros on the Way Forward</title>
		<link>http://www.metafilter.com/86885/George%2DSoros%2Don%2Dthe%2DWay%2DForward</link>
		<description>&lt;a href="http://www.ft.com/indepth/soros-lectures"&gt;Soros lectures&lt;/a&gt; &lt;br&gt;You can &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.ft.com/cms/668e074a-bf24-11de-a696-00144feab49a.html?_i_referralObject=11018787&quot;&gt;slog through the video&lt;/a&gt;, but I preferred the transcripts &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0ca06172-bfe9-11de-aed2-00144feab49a.html&quot;&gt;1&lt;/a&gt; | &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.ft.com/cms/dbc0e0c6-bfe9-11de-aed2-00144feab49a.html&quot;&gt;2&lt;/a&gt; | &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/5714b216-bfea-11de-aed2-00144feab49a.html&quot;&gt;3&lt;/a&gt; | &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/d55926e8-bfea-11de-aed2-00144feab49a,dwp_uuid=90bc6a02-bf0b-11de-8034-00144feab49a.html&quot;&gt;4&lt;/a&gt; | &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/2ee0b622-bfeb-11de-aed2-00144feab49a.html&quot;&gt;5&lt;/a&gt; &lt;small&gt;+ to me, it started off rather abstract* (admittedly on his part) and slow (covered ground; note soros tag) and doesn&apos;t really get interesting until 3 -- &quot;The event that forced me to thoroughly reconsider the concept of open society was the re-election of President Bush...&quot; [altho he can get a bit arrogant (&quot;even I, who discovered&#8212;or invented&#8212;reflexivity, failed to recognize...&quot;)] -- and gets better from there... so i&apos;d skip to that if you&apos;re so inclined :P&lt;/small&gt;

kinda &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.metafilter.com/76580/laws-of-human-stupidity&quot;&gt;previously&lt;/a&gt;...

and btw, as a bonus, also see...
- &lt;a href=&quot;http://freakonomics.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/11/20/why-do-we-hate/&quot;&gt;Why Do We Hate?&lt;/a&gt;
- &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.esquire.com/print-this/world-poverty-map-1209&quot;&gt;What Makes a Nation Rich?&lt;/a&gt; 
- &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.skidelskyr.com/site/article/how-much-is-enough/&quot;&gt;How Much Is Enough?&lt;/a&gt;
- &lt;a href=&quot;http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2009/11/what-the-us-long-bond-market-is-telling-us.html&quot;&gt;What the U.S. Long Bond Market Is Telling Us&lt;/a&gt; (&lt;a href=&quot;http://blogs.reuters.com/rolfe-winkler/2009/11/20/krugman-on-the-invisible-bond-vigilantes/&quot;&gt;cf&lt;/a&gt;.) 
- &lt;a href=&quot;http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2009/11/chart-of-the-day-8.html&quot;&gt;The G20 in 2050&lt;/a&gt; (&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.nytimes.com/imagepages/2009/11/14/weekinreview/15chinagready.html&quot;&gt;viz&lt;/a&gt;.)  
- &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/newsnight/paulmason/2009/11/rare_earth_the_new_great_game.html&quot;&gt;Rare earth: The New Great Game&lt;/a&gt; [&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/current-affairs/rare-earth-elements_426341.html&quot;&gt;1&lt;/a&gt;,&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/75fe65ce-4c4e-11de-a6c5-00144feabdc0,dwp_uuid=e8477cc4-c820-11db-b0dc-000b5df10621.html&quot;&gt;2&lt;/a&gt;,&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.newscientist.com/articleimages/mg19426051.200/2-earths-natural-wealth-an-audit.html&quot;&gt;3&lt;/a&gt;,&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-why-all-fuss-over-rare-earths&quot;&gt;4&lt;/a&gt;,&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/6082464/World-faces-hi-tech-crunch-as-China-eyes-ban-on-rare-metal-exports.html&quot;&gt;5&lt;/a&gt;,&lt;a href=&quot;http://thomaspmbarnett.com/weblog/2009/10/latest_chinese_resource_war_se.html&quot;&gt;6&lt;/a&gt;]

---
&lt;small&gt;*in fleshing out his concept of reflexivity he goes thru (among other things and in other words) descriptive vs. prescriptive (or normative) theories, instrumental rationality and empiricism, false thinking and truthiness, the law of unintended consequences, &amp;amp;c. so if you&apos;re into that sort of stuff... have at it!&lt;/small&gt; </description>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">tag:metafilter.com,2009:site.86885</guid>
		<pubDate>Sat, 21 Nov 2009 19:42:21 -0800</pubDate>
		<category>capitalism</category>
		<category>china</category>
		<category>complexity</category>
		<category>cooperation</category>
		<category>democracy</category>
		<category>development</category>
		<category>economics</category>
		<category>finance</category>
		<category>government</category>
		<category>markets</category>
		<category>morals</category>
		<category>nation</category>
		<category>politics</category>
		<category>progress</category>
		<category>socialism</category>
		<category>society</category>
		<category>soros</category>
		<category>state</category>
		<category>systems</category>
		<category>us</category>
		<dc:creator>kliuless</dc:creator>
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		<title>&#8220;He who controls the money supply of a nation controls the nation&#8221;: James Garfield</title>
		<link>http://www.metafilter.com/85567/He%2Dwho%2Dcontrols%2Dthe%2Dmoney%2Dsupply%2Dof%2Da%2Dnation%2Dcontrols%2Dthe%2Dnation%2DJames%2DGarfield</link>
		<description> The &lt;a href=&quot;http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Bank_of_the_United_States&quot;&gt;First Bank of the United States&lt;/a&gt; was Americas first attempt at forming a &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/centralbank.asp?&amp;viewed=1&quot;&gt;Central Bank&lt;/a&gt;.  Inaugurated by Congress in 1791, it was followed by &lt;a href=&quot;http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Bank_of_the_United_States&quot;&gt;The Second Bank of the United States&lt;/a&gt;, which was dissolved in 1836.  &lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;And then The United States of America was without a Central Bank for 77 years. Those were hardly halcyon years;  as US States and banks shared responsibility for printing money,  inflation, asset volatility, market crashes and even depressions were common, for example &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.publicbookshelf.com/public_html/The_Great_Republic_By_the_Master_Historians_Vol_III/thepanic_ce.html&quot;&gt;The Financial Panic of 1837&lt;/a&gt;, &lt;a href=&quot;http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panic_of_1857&quot;&gt;The Panic of 1857&lt;/a&gt;,  The Panic of 1873 (aka &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.bankcrash.nl/english/historythelongdepression.php&quot;&gt;&quot;The Long Depression&quot;&lt;/a&gt;), &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.encyclopediaofarkansas.net/encyclopedia/entry-detail.aspx?entryID=4292&quot;&gt;The Panic of 1893&lt;/a&gt;,  and &lt;a href=&quot;http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panic_of_1907&quot;&gt;the Panic of 1907&lt;/a&gt;.

Central Banks serve two very important groups of customers: &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.frbsf.org/publications/federalreserve/fedinbrief/central.html&quot;&gt;they provide banking services both to the government&lt;/a&gt; as well as &lt;a href=&quot;http://banking.about.com/od/businessbanking/a/retailbank.htm&quot;&gt;retail&lt;/a&gt;, &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.investorwords.com/955/commercial_bank.html&quot;&gt;commercial&lt;/a&gt; and &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.businessdictionary.com/definition/investment-bank.html&quot;&gt;investment banks&lt;/a&gt;. Also, as recent events have shown,  the importance of their role as &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.businessdictionary.com/definition/lender-of-last-resort.html&quot;&gt;&quot;lender of last resort&quot;&lt;/a&gt; in time of financial stress (&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.answers.com/topic/systematic-risk&quot;&gt;systemic&lt;/a&gt; as well as &lt;a href=&quot;http://financial-dictionary.thefreedictionary.com/Unique+risk&quot;&gt;specific&lt;/a&gt;) can not be underestimated. 

Regardless, &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/business/july-dec09/federalreserve_07-30.html&quot;&gt;suspicion of Central Banking&lt;/a&gt; is very high in post bailout America, leading to a variety of demands ranging from &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-fed-audit26-2009sep26,0,3764253.story&quot;&gt;requests for an audit of The Federal Reserve&lt;/a&gt;, to more extreme views that &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0446549193/metafilter-20/ref=nosim/&quot;&gt;The Federal Reserve should be abolished&lt;/a&gt; altogether.

But if not The Fed then who would control the nation&apos;s money supply? </description>
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		<pubDate>Sat, 03 Oct 2009 04:31:04 -0800</pubDate>
		<category>banking</category>
		<category>bubbles</category>
		<category>capitalmarkets</category>
		<category>centralbanking</category>
		<category>centralbanks</category>
		<category>depression</category>
		<category>depressions</category>
		<category>economics</category>
		<category>finance</category>
		<category>financialbubbles</category>
		<category>inflation</category>
		<category>markets</category>
		<dc:creator>Mutant</dc:creator>
	</item>
      <item>
		<title>High Frequency Trading</title>
		<link>http://www.metafilter.com/83863/High%2DFrequency%2DTrading</link>
		<description>&lt;a href="http://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/news/2009/07/-it-sounds-like-something.ars"&gt;High Frequency Trading&lt;/a&gt; The &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.economist.com/businessfinance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=14133802&amp;fsrc=rss&quot;&gt;Algorithmic Trading&lt;/a&gt; animals have been let loose. &lt;a href=&quot;http://ajayshahblog.blogspot.com/2009/08/interesting-readings.html&quot;&gt; (via) &lt;/a&gt; A look at the various strategies used in High frequency trading and the hardware used.

&quot;it&apos;s ironic that the hardware that HFT platforms are using to battle it out over stocks, bonds, commodities, and other assets is essentially the same as the technology that PC gamers are using to play their own games with much lower stakes. &quot; </description>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">tag:metafilter.com,2009:site.83863</guid>
		<pubDate>Wed, 05 Aug 2009 04:06:25 -0800</pubDate>
		<category>algorithms</category>
		<category>highfrequencytrading</category>
		<category>markets</category>
		<category>trading</category>
		<dc:creator>manny_calavera</dc:creator>
	</item>
      <item>
		<title>a new politics of the common good</title>
		<link>http://www.metafilter.com/82460/a%2Dnew%2Dpolitics%2Dof%2Dthe%2Dcommon%2Dgood</link>
		<description>&lt;a href="http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2009/06/2009-reith-lectures-markets-and-morals.html"&gt;Markets and Morals&lt;/a&gt; -- &quot;without quite realising it, without ever deciding to do so, we drifted from having a market economy to being a market society&quot; -- is the first of the &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b00kt7rg&quot;&gt;2009 Reith Lectures&lt;/a&gt; delivered by &lt;a href=&quot;http://crookedtimber.org/2009/06/09/michael-sandels-reith-lectures/&quot;&gt;Michael Sandel&lt;/a&gt;. (&lt;a href=&quot;http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2009/03/the-end-of-universal-rationality.html&quot;&gt;previously&lt;/a&gt;) cf. &lt;a href=&quot;http://2parse.com/?p=3097&quot;&gt;Yglesias&lt;/a&gt; on &lt;a href=&quot;http://2parse.com/?p=3095&quot;&gt;free markets&lt;/a&gt;... which kinda reminded me of &lt;a href=&quot;http://richmedia.lse.ac.uk/publicLecturesAndEvents/20090203_1830_hereComesEverybodyHowChangeHappensWhenPeopleComeTogether.mp3&quot;&gt;clay shirky&apos;s LSE lecture&lt;/a&gt; (mp3; 43 mb; approx 93 minutes) esp the bit in the Q&amp;amp;A around 56.50 wrt money, motivation and &lt;a href=&quot;http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edward_L._Deci&quot;&gt;ed deci&lt;/a&gt; :P

&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.fimoculous.com/archive/post-6161.cfm&quot;&gt;bonus&lt;/a&gt;! </description>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">tag:metafilter.com,2009:site.82460</guid>
		<pubDate>Sun, 14 Jun 2009 07:11:35 -0800</pubDate>
		<category>commons</category>
		<category>markets</category>
		<category>morality</category>
		<category>morals</category>
		<category>politics</category>
		<dc:creator>kliuless</dc:creator>
	</item>
      <item>
		<title>it&apos;s good to be a banksta</title>
		<link>http://www.metafilter.com/79158/its%2Dgood%2Dto%2Dbe%2Da%2Dbanksta</link>
		<description>&lt;a href="http://www.pbs.org/moyers/journal/02132009/watch.html"&gt;Simon Johnson on Bill Moyers&lt;/a&gt; [&lt;a href=&quot;http://baselinescenario.com/2009/02/13/bill-moyers-journal-tonight-american-banking-oligarchs/&quot;&gt;1&lt;/a&gt;] (and, prolifically, making the public media rounds &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2009/02/hear_pay_up_or_else.html&quot;&gt;on npr&lt;/a&gt; [&lt;a href=&quot;http://baselinescenario.com/2009/02/13/ransom-note-interview/&quot;&gt;2&lt;/a&gt;]) &lt;a href=&quot;http://baselinescenario.com/2009/02/13/financial-stability-plan-bank-stress-test/&quot;&gt;tackling&lt;/a&gt; the &lt;a href=&quot;http://baselinescenario.com/2009/02/10/so-now-we-know/&quot;&gt;bailout&lt;/a&gt; of &lt;a href=&quot;http://baselinescenario.com/2009/02/08/high-noon-geithner-v-the-american-oligarchs/&quot;&gt;the American Oligarchs&lt;/a&gt;, a.k.a. &lt;a href=&quot;http://baselinescenario.com/2009/02/12/robbery-note-from-the-banking-oligarchs-this-morning/&quot;&gt;banksters&lt;/a&gt;... BONUS LISTENING :P

&lt;a href=&quot;http://infoproc.blogspot.com/2009/02/worlds-greatest-economic-minds.html&quot;&gt;Economic Contagion&lt;/a&gt; - &quot;Listen to this interview with former Goldman banker John Talbott for some refreshing straight talk (Leonard Lopate Show).&quot;

and peripherally related...

clay shirky on, essentially, &apos;&lt;a href=&quot;http://richmedia.lse.ac.uk/publicLecturesAndEvents/20090203_1830_hereComesEverybodyHowChangeHappensWhenPeopleComeTogether.mp3&quot;&gt;change.gov&lt;/a&gt;&apos; (42 mb; approx 92 minutes) and &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.pbs.org/moyers/journal/02132009/watch2.html&quot;&gt;bill moyers with nikki giovanni&lt;/a&gt;, which was (and whois) also awesome!

---
&lt;small&gt;also recently related moyers on the blue &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.metafilter.com/75591/market-fundamentalism-for-the-last-25-or-so-years-And-now-that-world-is-collapsing&quot;&gt;1&lt;/a&gt; &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.metafilter.com/74213/Bacevich-speaks-to-Moyer-about-the-American-Empire&quot;&gt;2&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/small&gt; </description>
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		<pubDate>Sat, 14 Feb 2009 09:19:06 -0800</pubDate>
		<category>billmoyers</category>
		<category>change</category>
		<category>corruption</category>
		<category>finance</category>
		<category>government</category>
		<category>markets</category>
		<category>media</category>
		<category>money</category>
		<category>moyers</category>
		<category>npr</category>
		<category>pbs</category>
		<category>politics</category>
		<dc:creator>kliuless</dc:creator>
	</item>
      <item>
		<title>All predictions are wrong.  Or are they?</title>
		<link>http://www.metafilter.com/78041/All%2Dpredictions%2Dare%2Dwrong%2DOr%2Dare%2Dthey</link>
		<description> Every year the Strategy Team at &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.saxobank.com/&quot;&gt;Saxo Bank&lt;/a&gt;, a Danish &lt;a href=&quot;http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virtual_bank&quot;&gt;virtual bank&lt;/a&gt;, publishes a list of ten black swan class market events.  Some of the more dramatic possibilities Saxo advance for 2009: crude trading down to $25 a barrel causing severe social unrest in Iran, the S&amp;P 500 falling to 500, Chinese GDP approaching zero and several member states dropping the Euro. The complete &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.saxobank.ch/en/node/761265&quot;&gt;2009 list is here&lt;/a&gt; and for completeness their &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.saxobank.com/Site/About_Us/PressRoom/Releases/EN%20Outrageous%20Predictions%202008%20doc.pdf&quot;&gt;2008&lt;/a&gt; [ .pdf ] ,  &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.saxobank.com/data/files/Analysis/SaxoBank/Reports/YearlyOutlook2007.pdf&quot;&gt;2007&lt;/a&gt; [ .pdf ] and &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.saxobank.com/data/files/Analysis/SaxoBank/Reports/SaxoBankOutlook2006Update.pdf?stlnocount=true&quot;&gt;2006&lt;/a&gt; lists [ .pdf ]  are also available. Popularised by &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/&quot;&gt;Nassim Taleb&apos;s&lt;/a&gt; &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.amazon.co.uk/Black-Swan-Impact-Highly-Improbable/dp/0713999950&quot;&gt;&lt;i&gt;The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable&lt;/i&gt;&lt;/a&gt;, black swan events are &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.itl.nist.gov/div898/handbook/prc/section1/prc16.htm&quot;&gt;by definition statistical outliers&lt;/a&gt;.  Low in probability but potentially high in impact, even in the best of times prudence would dictate market participants at least be aware of - if not plan for - &lt;i&gt;all&lt;/i&gt; possibilities. </description>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">tag:metafilter.com,2009:site.78041</guid>
		<pubDate>Wed, 07 Jan 2009 02:13:13 -0800</pubDate>
		<category>banking</category>
		<category>economics</category>
		<category>finance</category>
		<category>investing</category>
		<category>markets</category>
		<category>predictions</category>
		<dc:creator>Mutant</dc:creator>
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		<title>Enjoy Risk? Then you may like 300% Leveraged ETFs</title>
		<link>http://www.metafilter.com/76553/Enjoy%2DRisk%2DThen%2Dyou%2Dmay%2Dlike%2D300%2DLeveraged%2DETFs</link>
		<description> &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.indexuniverse.com/sections/newsinfocus/4779-etfs-with-300-leverage-inverse-power-set-to-launch.html&quot;&gt;Enjoy Risk? Then you may like 300% Leveraged ETFs&lt;/a&gt; ETFs (&lt;a href=&quot;Enjoy&quot;&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exchange-traded_fund&quot;&gt;Exchange Traded Funds&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/a&gt;) trade just like stocks, but may (and often do) employ &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.oxburyresearch.com/index.php?option=com_content&amp;task=view&amp;id=300&amp;Itemid=36&quot;&gt;leverage&lt;/a&gt; to obtain the desired investment objective.  These particular offerings (&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.etfguide.com/news/447/Want-to-Triple-Your-Investment-Bets?-Direxion-ETFs-Launch/&quot;&gt;less than two weeks old )&lt;/a&gt; are summed up well &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.greenfaucet.com/technical-analysis/prediction-direxion-etfs-will-revolutionize-day-trading/80760&quot;&gt;here&lt;/a&gt;.  I especially like 

&lt;em&gt;&quot;if you like to go skydiving, keep a pet alligator in the bathtub, and dream of a winter king crab fishing in the Bering Strait, then you will be right at home with the Direxion ETFs.&quot;&lt;/em&gt; </description>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 14 Nov 2008 21:10:00 -0800</pubDate>
		<category>bear</category>
		<category>ETF</category>
		<category>leveraged</category>
		<category>markets</category>
		<dc:creator>Rafaelloello</dc:creator>
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		<title>Money for nothing: a new era of zero interest rates?</title>
		<link>http://www.metafilter.com/76463/Money%2Dfor%2Dnothing%2Da%2Dnew%2Dera%2Dof%2Dzero%2Dinterest%2Drates</link>
		<description> The Fed &lt;a href=&quot;http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/fed_interest_rates&quot;&gt;cut 100 bps&lt;/a&gt;.  BOE &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&amp;sid=agxY73_cuxYU&quot;&gt;cut 150 bps&lt;/a&gt;.  ECB &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&amp;sid=axO8AkbbPSHw&quot;&gt;cut 50 bps&lt;/a&gt;.  India, Vietnam, The Czech Republic, Switzerland, Denmark, South Korea and other nations have all cut interest rates in recent weeks,  with many Central Banks cutting more than once.  The G20 is now discussing the possibility of &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&amp;sid=a24GKseqaW7I&quot;&gt;further, coordinated interest rate cuts&lt;/a&gt;.  

As interest rates globally plummet, we are observing &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&amp;sid=agGBpPduI3E4&amp;refer=home&quot;&gt;what some analysts are calling &quot;The Race to Zero&quot;&lt;/a&gt;. Today almost every nation in both the developed and developing worlds is deeply in the territory of &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.mortgageguideuk.co.uk/blog/uk-housing-market/negative-real-interest-rates/&quot;&gt;negative real interest rates&lt;/a&gt;.  In other words,  savings kept dormant in the bank loses, rather than gains, value.   As the long anticipated &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/great-unwind-has-started-avoid/story.aspx?guid={1DC25DFD-3543-4CF4-BE26-74EA4B9C9330}&amp;dist=hplatest&quot;&gt; great unwinding continues&lt;/a&gt; Central Bankers seem to be hoping that low interest rates will force consumption, pushing economies forward at the same time monetary policy pulls.

Given this backdrop, a natural question would be how low can interest rates go?  The answer may lie in &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/2000/200051/200051pap.pdf&quot;&gt;an unpublished Federal Reserve research paper,  &lt;i&gt;&quot;Monetary Policy when the Nominal Short-Term Interest Rate is Zero.&#8221;&lt;/i&gt;&lt;/a&gt; (Clouse, J., et al, 2000) [.pdf]

Bonus street cred: Two of the authors are &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/2004/200440/200440pap.pdf&quot;&gt;architects of some of the unconventional mechanisms currently deployed by The Fed to fight this crisis&lt;/a&gt; (Clouse, J., Small, D., 2004) [.pdf].  No time for lengthy pdfs, no problem!  The New York Fed &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.ny.frb.org/markets/Forms_of_Fed_Lending.pdf&quot;&gt;published a single page, very accessible summary&lt;/a&gt; [.pdf]  of unconventional tools currently in use.

&lt;small&gt;Full citation of research papers cited:
Clouse, J., Henderson, D., Orphanides, A.,  Small, D., Tinsley, P., 2000,  &quot;Monetary Policy when the Nominal Short-Term Interest Rate is Zero&#8221;, unpublished, Federal Reserve Board, Finance and Economics Discussion Series, 2000-51 FEDS Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 

Clouse, J., Small, D., 2004, &quot;The Scope of Monetary Policy Actions Authorised Under The Federal Reserve Act&quot;, Federal Reserve Board, Finance and Economics Discussion Series, 2004 FEDS Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
&lt;/small&gt; </description>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 12 Nov 2008 03:27:18 -0800</pubDate>
		<category>banking</category>
		<category>capitalmarkets</category>
		<category>economics</category>
		<category>finance</category>
		<category>InterestRates</category>
		<category>markets</category>
		<category>NegativeRealInterestRates</category>
		<category>TheFed</category>
		<dc:creator>Mutant</dc:creator>
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		<title>The most obscure but perhaps the most important economic indicator we&apos;ve got</title>
		<link>http://www.metafilter.com/76129/The%2Dmost%2Dobscure%2Dbut%2Dperhaps%2Dthe%2Dmost%2Dimportant%2Deconomic%2Dindicator%2Dweve%2Dgot</link>
		<description> How best to take the pulse of the global economy?  While market driven rates such as &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.bba.org.uk/bba/jsp/polopoly.jsp?d=225&amp;a=1413&quot;&gt;LIBOR&lt;/a&gt; or &lt;a href=&quot;http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/T-bill?jss=0&quot;&gt;US Government T-Bills&lt;/a&gt; reveal the state of &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.investorwords.com/1993/fixed_income.html&quot;&gt;fixed income&lt;/a&gt; and &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/creditdefaultswap.asp&quot;&gt;Credit Default Swaps&lt;/a&gt; tell the observer much about &lt;i&gt;possible&lt;/i&gt; default rates, many analysts prefer a more basal view.  The &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.drybulkindex.com/&quot;&gt;Baltic Dry Index&lt;/a&gt; is one such indicator. &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.balticexchange.com/default.asp?action=article&amp;ID=19&quot;&gt;For over 250 years member companies of the Baltic Exchange&lt;/a&gt; have tracked the cost of shipping goods across the globe.  Everyday they produce The Baltic Dry Index, which is nothing more than &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.wikinvest.com/stock/Baltic_Dry_Index_-_BDI_(BALDRY)&quot;&gt;&lt;i&gt;&quot;...a daily average of prices to ship raw materials&quot;&lt;/i&gt;&lt;/a&gt;.   The performance of this index is unbiased as speculators do not participate in this market; hence we consider this an effective forward looking indicator of the expected state of the global economy, and presently &lt;a href=&quot;http://bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=BDIY%3AIND&quot;&gt;the Baltic Dry Index is tanking&lt;/a&gt;. 

Looking for the bright side?  The Baltic Dry Index tells us its now over 90% cheaper to ship goods and material across the globe than it was a year ago.   At least until &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.lloydslist.com/ll/news/record-drop-sparks-fears-for-dry-bulk-owners/20017585735.htm&quot;&gt;bankruptcies in the shipping sector reduce capacity&lt;/a&gt; to fit demand. </description>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 31 Oct 2008 04:25:25 -0800</pubDate>
		<category>balticdryindex</category>
		<category>banking</category>
		<category>BDI</category>
		<category>capitalmarkets</category>
		<category>economicindicators</category>
		<category>economics</category>
		<category>finance</category>
		<category>markets</category>
		<category>nontraditionalindictaors</category>
		<dc:creator>Mutant</dc:creator>
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		<title>In praise of small banks</title>
		<link>http://www.metafilter.com/76108/In%2Dpraise%2Dof%2Dsmall%2Dbanks</link>
		<description> The nine biggest US banks aren&apos;t using $125 billion in federal bailout money to make loans. &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/25/business/25nocera.html?_r=1&amp;scp=1&amp;sq=nocera%20JPMorgan=cse&amp;oref=slogin&quot;&gt;They&apos;re going to use taxpayer dollars to buy other banks. &lt;/a&gt; That&apos;s not what we were &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.ustreas.gov/press/releases/hp1223.htm&quot;&gt;led to believe&lt;/a&gt; when Henry Paulson forced the nine banks to take the money. Turns out the banks &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&amp;sid=amZ3uCIUB8GQ&amp;refer=economy&quot;&gt;could do as they wished&lt;/a&gt; with the money. 

What about small banks? We seem to have forgotten about the thousands of local, community banks. They have functioned well in the crisis, and reports suggest that they have &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/09/25/AR2008092504155_pf.html&quot;&gt;even benefitted&lt;/a&gt;. 

A veteran banker who works for one of the big US banks &lt;a href=&quot;http://executivesuite.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/10/30/peeking-under-the-kimono-a-big-banker-speaks-out/&quot;&gt;says&lt;/a&gt; it&apos;s time we did something to help them. Smaller banks, he says, are part of the community and have a better understanding of who their customers are. 

&lt;em&gt;&quot;If we make the bailout funds available to the community bankers, I promise they will know what to do with the money. They will lend it and they will make prudent lending decisions, based on direct and comprehensive knowledge of the borrower. So what are we waiting for?&quot;&lt;/em&gt;

The big banks -- BofA, Citibank, JPMorgan -- aren&apos;t lending because they don&apos;t know their customers. They have depersonalized lending by relying on &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.reuters.com/article/inDepthNews/idUSN0231191820070510&quot;&gt;inaccurate credit scoring&lt;/a&gt; to make loans. Sometimes lenders &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.investopedia.com/terms/n/nina.asp&quot;&gt;don&apos;t even do that&lt;/a&gt;. This got the banks into trouble.  They wound up with &lt;a href=&quot;http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/subjects/m/mortgage-backed-securities/index.html&quot;&gt;toxic assets of dubious value&lt;/a&gt; on their balance sheets. 

It seems that this depersonalization goes to the heart of the global financial crisis. In finance, it&apos;s sometimes referred to as the &quot;&lt;a href=&quot;http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Principal-agent_problem&quot;&gt;principal-agent problem&lt;/a&gt;.&quot; It means looking at numbers instead of people. </description>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 30 Oct 2008 12:43:40 -0800</pubDate>
		<category>banking</category>
		<category>economics</category>
		<category>finance</category>
		<category>markets</category>
		<dc:creator>up in the old hotel</dc:creator>
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		<title>You don&apos;t really own the shares you think you own</title>
		<link>http://www.metafilter.com/75928/You%2Ddont%2Dreally%2Down%2Dthe%2Dshares%2Dyou%2Dthink%2Dyou%2Down</link>
		<description> All the stocks and bonds you &lt;i&gt;think&lt;/i&gt; you own are actually &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.dtcc.com/&quot;&gt;owned by a company you&apos;ve probably never heard of&lt;/a&gt;, a company owned by the same people who own the US Federal Reserve. Originally paper &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/stockcertificate.asp&quot;&gt;stocks certificates&lt;/a&gt; were issued  as evidence of ownership by companies to investors purchasing shares.  But as trading volume exploded in the late 60&apos;s this manual system didn&apos;t scale.   As an increasing number of trades  failed due to paper processing backlogs &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.nyse.com/pdfs/closings.pdf&quot;&gt;The New York Stock Exchange took the unprecedented steps of &lt;i&gt;closing on Wednesdays&lt;/i&gt; in 1968&lt;/a&gt;. [.pdf]&lt;/a&gt;  

In response to the crisis &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,844480,00.html&quot;&gt;The Central Certificate Service (CCS)&lt;/a&gt; was created to electronically settle trades and eliminate the need for share certificates. &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,838048-2,00.html&quot;&gt; Although intended as a temporary measure&lt;/a&gt;, it is still with us.

Financial assets purchased today aren&apos;t registered in &lt;i&gt;your name&lt;/i&gt;; rather they are held in what&apos;s known as &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/instreetname.asp&quot;&gt;&lt;i&gt;street name&lt;/i&gt;&lt;/a&gt;.  Regardless of the assets purchased or the broker used, this name is almost always a successor of CCS, namely &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.dtcc.com/&quot;&gt;The Depository Trust &amp;amp; Clearing Corporation&lt;/a&gt; (DTC), or some anomalous sounding &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.globalequity.org/glossary/term_detail.php?term_id=88&quot;&gt;variant of &quot;Cede &amp;amp; Co&quot;&lt;/a&gt;.

Holding &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.dtcc.com/about/business/statistics.php&quot;&gt;assets in excess of $40T&lt;/a&gt; (yes, &lt;b&gt;trillion&lt;/b&gt;), DTC is the single largest private trust in the world - in fact the largest company you&apos;ve probably never heard of.  

While DTC no doubt provides a critical service - standing behind and insuring the performance of hundreds of thousands of broker / dealers, institutional investors, banks, mutual funds, insurance companies and hedge funds,  many people are critical of this quasi-monopoly.  While some say a system like DTC &lt;a href=&quot;http://online.wsj.com/public/article/SB118359867562957720-5Yb1Y_mpcl9a2nKbc0IaV0tDHyk_20070712.html&quot;&gt;facilitates short selling&lt;/a&gt;, and &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.forbes.com/opinions/2008/09/23/naked-shorting-trades-oped-cx_pb_0923byrne.html&quot;&gt;and other forms of market manipulation&lt;/a&gt;, others claim the interests of American shareholders have been superceded by this system of indirect stock ownership, and the &lt;a href=&quot;http://publikationen.ub.uni-frankfurt.de/volltexte/2007/4885/pdf/ILF_WP_068.pdf&quot;&gt;technology now exists to revert to direct ownership of stocks&lt;/a&gt; [.pdf].

But, as the business of big business is indeed, big business, whether or not these temporary measures will ever be removed is anyones guess. </description>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 24 Oct 2008 06:30:10 -0800</pubDate>
		<category>banking</category>
		<category>capitalmarkets</category>
		<category>clearing</category>
		<category>DTC</category>
		<category>economics</category>
		<category>finance</category>
		<category>markets</category>
		<category>stockmarket</category>
		<dc:creator>Mutant</dc:creator>
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		<title>Essential Credit Crunch Reading</title>
		<link>http://www.metafilter.com/75613/Essential%2DCredit%2DCrunch%2DReading</link>
		<description> Afraid to read &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.ft.com/&quot;&gt;the daily news?&lt;/a&gt; Need some broader perspective on The Credit Crunch?  There are lots of different ideas by lots of different authors floating about ... One idea is &lt;b&gt;we simply pay up!&lt;/b&gt; In &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.amazon.co.uk/Trillion-Dollar-Meltdown-Rollers-Credit/dp/1586485636/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&amp;s=books&amp;qid=1223884948&amp;sr=8-1&quot;&gt;&lt;i&gt;The Trillion Dollar Meltdown&lt;/i&gt;&lt;/a&gt;, Charles Morris advises that we take the hit in one lump sum.  A TRILLION DOLLAR lump sum.  And what if that impressive lump sum isn&apos;t impressive enough?  Morris covers that possibility in &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.amazon.co.uk/Two-Trillion-Dollar-Meltdown-Rollers/dp/1586486918/ref=sr_1_2?ie=UTF8&amp;s=books&amp;qid=1223884948&amp;sr=8-2&quot;&gt;&lt;i&gt;The TWO Trillion Dollar Meltdown&lt;/i&gt;&lt;/a&gt; (someone please stop him before he writes another book!)

&lt;b&gt;Embrace the destruction.&lt;/b&gt; William Fleckenstein and Fred Sheean in &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.amazon.co.uk/Greenspans-Bubbles-Ignorance-Federal-Reserve/dp/0071591583/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&amp;s=books&amp;qid=1223885065&amp;sr=1-1&quot;&gt;&lt;i&gt;Greenspan&apos;s Bubbles&lt;/i&gt;&lt;/a&gt; argue that we&apos;ve been saved from bubbles one too many times.   Let nature take it&apos;s course!

&lt;b&gt;Simplify the system&lt;/b&gt; seems to be a theme several writers have raised.  Both George Soros in &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.amazon.co.uk/New-Paradigm-Financial-Markets-Credit/dp/1586486837/ref=pd_bxgy_b_text_b&quot;&gt;&lt;i&gt;The New Paradigm for Financial Markets&lt;/i&gt;&lt;/a&gt;  or Richard Bookstaber in &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.amazon.co.uk/Demon-Our-Own-Design-Innovation/dp/0471227277/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&amp;s=books&amp;qid=1223885159&amp;sr=1-1&quot;&gt;&lt;i&gt;A Demon of Our Own Design&lt;/i&gt;&lt;/a&gt; argue that we should simplify financial instruments, and stop market participants from employing excessive leverage. 

While simplification is attractive, in  &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.amazon.co.uk/Subprime-Solution-Todays-Financial-Happened/dp/0691139296/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&amp;s=books&amp;qid=1223885193&amp;sr=1-1&quot;&gt;&lt;i&gt;The Subprime Solution&lt;/i&gt;&lt;/a&gt; Robert Shiller not only outlines the causes of the subprime mess, he argues that this crisis shows us the desire to own a home is &lt;i&gt;a problem calling out for a solution&lt;/i&gt;.  He suggest &lt;b&gt;the creation of a new class of financial product&lt;/b&gt; is needed, something he is calling &lt;i&gt;&quot;continuous-workout mortgages&quot;&lt;/i&gt;, where payments are dynamically adjusted according to an individuals ability to pay. 

&lt;b&gt;Back to basics&lt;/b&gt;. In &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.amazon.co.uk/Money-Reckless-Finance-Kevin-Phillips/dp/0670019070/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&amp;s=books&amp;qid=1223885323&amp;sr=1-1&quot;&gt;&lt;i&gt;Bad Money, Reckless Finance&lt;/i&gt;&lt;/a&gt; Kevin Phillips argues that we&apos;ve let Wall Street and financial services dominate the US economy, and now it&apos;s time to revert to our roots, manufacturing.  He is busily writing a follow up, &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.amazon.co.uk/Bad-Money-Reckless-Politics-Capitalism/dp/0143114808/ref=sr_1_2?ie=UTF8&amp;s=books&amp;qid=1223885323&amp;sr=1-2&quot;&gt;&lt;i&gt;Bad Money: Reckless Finance, Failed Politics, and the Global Crisis of American Capitalism&lt;i&gt;&lt;/i&gt;&lt;/i&gt;&lt;/a&gt; which seems to cast a wider net of blame. 

&lt;b&gt;A crash is inevitable&lt;/b&gt;. In &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.amazon.co.uk/Wealth-War-Wisdom-Barton-Biggs/dp/0470223073/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&amp;s=books&amp;qid=1223885435&amp;sr=1-1&quot;&gt;&lt;i&gt;Wealth, War and Wisdom&lt;/i&gt;&lt;/a&gt; Barton Biggs notes that we see systemic crashes about one a century.  Its gonna, no, GOTTA happen!

And in the end, keep in mind that &lt;b&gt;we&apos;re all in this together&lt;/b&gt;.  In &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.amazon.co.uk/Panic-1907-Lessons-Learned-Markets/dp/047015263X/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&amp;s=books&amp;qid=1223885595&amp;sr=1-1&quot;&gt;&lt;i&gt;The Panic of 1907: Lessons Learned from the Markets Perfect Storm&lt;/i&gt;&lt;/a&gt; Robert Bruner &amp;amp; Sean Carr looked at one of the lesser known (but still very severe crashes), and showed how &lt;i&gt;&quot;collective action by leaders can arrest the spiral&quot; &lt;/i&gt;.  Everyone pitched in, pulled together and reduced the impact. 

So fight, simplify, surrender, pay up, create new instruments, no matter how you&apos;re planning to weather the storm, you&apos;ll have plenty of reading to while away the time. </description>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 13 Oct 2008 01:29:39 -0800</pubDate>
		<category>banking</category>
		<category>capitalmarkets</category>
		<category>creditcrunch</category>
		<category>economics</category>
		<category>finance</category>
		<category>markets</category>
		<dc:creator>Mutant</dc:creator>
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      <item>
		<title>&quot;...market fundamentalism for the last 25 or so years. And now that world is collapsing... &quot;</title>
		<link>http://www.metafilter.com/75591/market%2Dfundamentalism%2Dfor%2Dthe%2Dlast%2D25%2Dor%2Dso%2Dyears%2DAnd%2Dnow%2Dthat%2Dworld%2Dis%2Dcollapsing</link>
		<description>&lt;a href="http://www.pbs.org/moyers/journal/10102008/watch.html"&gt;Bill Moyers interviews George Soros on the financial crisis.&lt;/a&gt; Soros discusses market fundamentalism and the causes of the current crisis, as well as what can be done, and how this meltdown will change the global economy. &lt;small&gt;(&lt;a href=&quot;http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/10/george-soros-on.html#more&quot;&gt;via&lt;/a&gt; &lt;a href=&quot;http://bigpicture.typepad.com/&quot;&gt;The Big Picture&lt;/a&gt;)&lt;/small&gt; It begins with Moyers violating the behavioral norms of modern journalism:&lt;blockquote&gt;In the interest of full disclosure, you should know that I served three years on the board of George Soros&apos; foundation, the Open Society Institute, dealing with such issues as a free press, the rule of law, and human rights. But I&apos;ve had no involvement in his political activities and nothing to do, with his business interests unfortunately.&lt;/blockquote&gt; </description>
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		<pubDate>Sat, 11 Oct 2008 17:24:00 -0800</pubDate>
		<category>billmoyers</category>
		<category>bubble</category>
		<category>finance</category>
		<category>financialcrisis</category>
		<category>financialmeltdown</category>
		<category>georgesoros</category>
		<category>irrationalexuberance</category>
		<category>marketfundamentalism</category>
		<category>markets</category>
		<category>meltdown</category>
		<category>moyers</category>
		<category>pbs</category>
		<category>soros</category>
		<category>themadnessofcrowds</category>
		<dc:creator>[expletive deleted]</dc:creator>
	</item>
      <item>
		<title>Another potentially huge settlement day for CDS contracts ...</title>
		<link>http://www.metafilter.com/75540/Another%2Dpotentially%2Dhuge%2Dsettlement%2Dday%2Dfor%2DCDS%2Dcontracts</link>
		<description> &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.investorwords.com/5876/credit_default_swap.html&quot;&gt;Credit Default Swaps&lt;/a&gt; (CDS) are &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/derivative.asp&quot;&gt;derivative instruments&lt;/a&gt; providing the purchaser with protection against default on an underlying financial asset.  When  Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.credit-deriv.com/isdadefinitions.htm&quot;&gt;&lt;i&gt;technically&lt;/i&gt; defaulted&lt;/a&gt; on September 7th there was much speculation that the CDS market would collapse &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&amp;sid=ajsxbVS.W2lQ&amp;refer=home&quot;&gt;as a result of protection being invoked on $1.4 trillion dollars worth of debt&lt;/a&gt;.  On October 6th &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.isda.org/press/press100608.html&quot;&gt;these derivative contracts settled&lt;/a&gt;, and the CDS market didn&apos;t collapse &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/feedarticle/7845325&quot;&gt;with recovery rates of 92% being observed&lt;/a&gt;.  Today CDS contracts &lt;a href=&quot;http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&amp;sid=aX_FLjiKfbic&amp;refer=home&quot;&gt;protecting against the default of Lehman Brothers settle&lt;/a&gt;.  The problem?  Because industry lacks a central clearinghouse for these derivatives, &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&amp;sid=ad5I2uMlzN7o&amp;refer=home&quot;&gt;nobody is really sure how  many CDS contracts&lt;/a&gt; were written either &lt;b&gt;by&lt;/b&gt; Lehman or by other banks providing protection &lt;i&gt;against&lt;/i&gt; a Lehman default.   Next on the list are CDS&apos; covering Washington Mutual, which are due to settle October 23rd.  &lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&amp;sid=aggIxIogKZjg&amp;refer=home&quot;&gt;Meanwhile efforts to create a clearing house continue&lt;/a&gt;, as some folks speculate that &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/1a596038-9408-11dd-b277-0000779fd18c.html&quot;&gt;the settlement of Credit Default Swaps is a major reason why banks are hoarding cash&lt;/a&gt;.  </description>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 10 Oct 2008 02:32:15 -0800</pubDate>
		<category>banking</category>
		<category>capitalmarkets</category>
		<category>CDS</category>
		<category>creditdefaultswaps</category>
		<category>economics</category>
		<category>finance</category>
		<category>markets</category>
		<dc:creator>Mutant</dc:creator>
	</item>
      <item>
		<title>This is not your FDIC.  This is the Rich White Man&apos;s FDIC.</title>
		<link>http://www.metafilter.com/75177/This%2Dis%2Dnot%2Dyour%2DFDIC%2DThis%2Dis%2Dthe%2DRich%2DWhite%2DMans%2DFDIC</link>
		<description> A &lt;i&gt;private&lt;/i&gt; &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.fdic.gov/&quot;&gt;FDIC&lt;/a&gt;?  

&lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.cdars.com/&quot;&gt;The Certificate of Deposit Account Registry Service&lt;/a&gt;, or &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.bankrate.com/brm/news/sav/20030820a1.asp&quot;&gt;CDARS&lt;/a&gt;, is a way to conveniently spread bank accounts across multiple banks.  CDARS, run by privately held Promontory Interfinancial Network, offers its customers &lt;i&gt;up to $50 million of deposit insurance&lt;/i&gt;, or exactly 500 times single account limit mandated by the FDIC.  Promontory does this by arranging to distribute client funds nationwide in $100K increments to over 2,300 banks.  Promontory is nothing if not well connected: while founders Mark Jacobsen &lt;a href=&quot;http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_hb5243/is_199911/ai_n20124500&quot;&gt;previously served as Chief of Staff at the FDIC&lt;/a&gt;, co-founders Alan Blinder was &lt;a href=&quot;http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alan_Blinder&quot;&gt;Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve&lt;/a&gt; and Eugene Ludwig &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.haverford.edu/publications/spring00/ludwig.htm&quot;&gt;was Comptroller of the Currency&lt;/a&gt;, several former members of the FDIC currently serve on Promotory&apos;s board. 

&lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;Not surprisingly, some folks are openly critical of Promotory, some going so far as to state &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601170&amp;refer=home&amp;sid=aBaYKQD_UPcE&quot;&gt;&lt;i&gt;&quot;It undermines a lot of the safeguards around the FDIC deposit fund.&quot;&lt;/i&gt;&lt;/a&gt;  </description>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 26 Sep 2008 02:47:19 -0800</pubDate>
		<category>bankfailures</category>
		<category>banking</category>
		<category>capitalmarkets</category>
		<category>economics</category>
		<category>FDIC</category>
		<category>finance</category>
		<category>markets</category>
		<dc:creator>Mutant</dc:creator>
	</item>
      <item>
		<title>teh free markets, ur doin it wrong</title>
		<link>http://www.metafilter.com/75075/teh%2Dfree%2Dmarkets%2Dur%2Ddoin%2Dit%2Dwrong</link>
		<description> &lt;a href=&quot;http://lolfed.com/&quot;&gt;LOLFed&lt;/a&gt;.  &lt;i&gt;Doan cry, emo banker!&lt;/i&gt;  If you hate the latest financial crisis news, but love image macros, then this is the site for you.  It&apos;s like &lt;a href=&quot;http://icanhascheezburger.com/&quot;&gt;I Can Has Cheezburger&lt;/a&gt; meets the &lt;a href=&quot;http://online.wsj.com/public/us&quot;&gt;Wall Street Journal&lt;/a&gt;.  </description>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 22 Sep 2008 16:46:37 -0800</pubDate>
		<category>bankers</category>
		<category>banks</category>
		<category>federalreserve</category>
		<category>finance</category>
		<category>funny</category>
		<category>humor</category>
		<category>lolcats</category>
		<category>macros</category>
		<category>markets</category>
		<category>wallstreet</category>
		<dc:creator>Asparagirl</dc:creator>
	</item>
      <item>
		<title>Saturday night poker night is about to get a lot more interesting ...</title>
		<link>http://www.metafilter.com/75053/Saturday%2Dnight%2Dpoker%2Dnight%2Dis%2Dabout%2Dto%2Dget%2Da%2Dlot%2Dmore%2Dinteresting</link>
		<description> &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.investorwords.com/2296/hedge_fund.html&quot;&gt;Hedge Funds&lt;/a&gt; employ many different strategies to make money.  There are &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.investopedia.com/terms/1/130-30_strategy.asp&quot;&gt;long/short funds&lt;/a&gt;, &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.eurekahedge.com/news/04may_archive_japan_event_driven.asp&quot;&gt;event driven funds&lt;/a&gt;, &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.emergingportfolio.com/press/wsj_032406.pdf&quot;&gt;emerging markets funds&lt;/a&gt; [.pdf], funds looking to profit from &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.macroanalytics.com/html/global_macro.html&quot;&gt;global macroeconomic trends&lt;/a&gt; and a large number of funds employing &lt;a href=&quot;http://hedgefund.blogspot.com/2007/05/hedge-fund-arbitrage.html&quot;&gt;a wide range of arbitrage techniques&lt;/a&gt; to make money. 

&lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;But these techniques are the tried and the true.  As both assets under management and market turmoil have grown significantly,  hedge funds are rapidly branching out into domains far, far detached from finance:  &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d2bb83d0-0008-11dc-8c98-000b5df10621.html&quot;&gt;art&lt;/a&gt;, &lt;a href=&quot;http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/columnists/article3080766.ece&quot;&gt;litigation funding&lt;/a&gt; and &lt;i&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b5a0b48c-838d-11dd-907e-000077b07658.html&quot;&gt;now even poker&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/i&gt;  </description>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">tag:metafilter.com,2008:site.75053</guid>
		<pubDate>Mon, 22 Sep 2008 02:40:56 -0800</pubDate>
		<category>banking</category>
		<category>capitalmarkets</category>
		<category>economics</category>
		<category>finance</category>
		<category>hedgefunds</category>
		<category>markets</category>
		<dc:creator>Mutant</dc:creator>
	</item>
      <item>
		<title>Banking shares: New Day or False Dawn?</title>
		<link>http://www.metafilter.com/74728/Banking%2Dshares%2DNew%2DDay%2Dor%2DFalse%2DDawn</link>
		<description> A bottom for banking?  Buying or selling shares in a company one manages - &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.sec.gov/answers/insider.htm&quot;&gt;&lt;i&gt;insider trading&lt;/i&gt;&lt;/a&gt; - is legal in The United States, provided &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.sec.gov/answers/form345.htm&quot;&gt;the relevant forms&lt;/a&gt; are filed with &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.sec.gov/about/whatwedo.shtml&quot;&gt;The SEC&lt;/a&gt;.  This information is then made available to the general public via &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.sec.gov/edgar.shtml&quot;&gt;EDGAR&lt;/a&gt;, &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.secform4.com/&quot;&gt;Sec Form 4&lt;/a&gt;, or &lt;a href=&quot;http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/process/insider/top10insider.aspx&quot;&gt;high level aggregators&lt;/a&gt;.  Investors scour web sites for such filings, as purchases or sales of a companies shares by insiders are &lt;i&gt;public&lt;/i&gt; evidence of managements &lt;i&gt;private&lt;/i&gt; opinions regarding the &lt;i&gt;future&lt;/i&gt; prospects of the firm they are running.  

&lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;Even before yesterdays &lt;i&gt;relief rally&lt;/i&gt; &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601213&amp;sid=a8HdJqEuP66I&amp;refer=home&quot;&gt;insider buying in banking shares hit a two decade high&lt;/a&gt;. So does this surge in buying indicate the worst is over in banking?  When trading its best to pay close attention to a broad range of  signals, because &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/insiders-get-wrong-indymac/story.aspx?guid={95198CB1-872F-4E64-9CA4-C4FFAA6DF935}&quot;&gt;sometimes even the insiders get it wrong&lt;/a&gt;.

&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/a&gt;  </description>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">tag:metafilter.com,2008:site.74728</guid>
		<pubDate>Tue, 09 Sep 2008 03:39:42 -0800</pubDate>
		<category>banking</category>
		<category>capitalmarkets</category>
		<category>economics</category>
		<category>finance</category>
		<category>markets</category>
		<category>stockmarket</category>
		<dc:creator>Mutant</dc:creator>
	</item>
      <item>
		<title>Those markets? Well, it seems they work like they are supposed to ...</title>
		<link>http://www.metafilter.com/74454/Those%2Dmarkets%2DWell%2Dit%2Dseems%2Dthey%2Dwork%2Dlike%2Dthey%2Dare%2Dsupposed%2Dto</link>
		<description> Are funds calling a bottom to the US housing market?  Even as &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&amp;sid=ahhmUgCw1IO8&quot;&gt;house price declines are beginning to slow&lt;/a&gt;, home sales &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&amp;sid=akFU9JuCJExk&quot;&gt;may have stablised&lt;/a&gt; and &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&amp;sid=aAhl47f6kahA&quot;&gt;resales look healthy&lt;/a&gt;, big money - &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.reuters.com/article/innovationNews/idUSBNG2740720080827&quot;&gt;$5B here&lt;/a&gt;,  &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.thedeal.com/dealscape/2008/08/report_third_avenue_plans_3b_d.php&quot;&gt;$3B there&lt;/a&gt;, &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.thedeal.com/dealscape/2008/08/apollo_raising_2_billion_europ.php&quot;&gt;over there $2B&lt;/a&gt; and &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.bizjournals.com/memphis/stories/2008/08/25/daily13.html&quot;&gt;lots and lots&lt;/a&gt; of &lt;a href=&quot;http://triangle.bizjournals.com/triangle/stories/2008/08/25/story4.html?b=1219636800^1689363&quot;&gt;smaller amounts&lt;/a&gt;  - is being deployed to take housing assets &lt;i&gt;off&lt;/i&gt; banks balance sheets.  

&lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;Meanwhile, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&amp;sid=apmMPC6KnAtI&amp;refer=home&quot;&gt;are actually booking &lt;i&gt;the biggest profits on new mortgages since 1998&lt;/i&gt;&lt;/a&gt;.  It ain&apos;t over &apos;til it&apos;s over, but in the markets you take what you can get.  </description>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 28 Aug 2008 04:14:50 -0800</pubDate>
		<category>banking</category>
		<category>economics</category>
		<category>finance</category>
		<category>housingmarket</category>
		<category>investing</category>
		<category>markets</category>
		<dc:creator>Mutant</dc:creator>
	</item>
      <item>
		<title>&quot;A national debt will be to us a national blessing.&quot; Alexander Hamilton, Secretary of Treasury,1780</title>
		<link>http://www.metafilter.com/74404/A%2Dnational%2Ddebt%2Dwill%2Dbe%2Dto%2Dus%2Da%2Dnational%2Dblessing%2DAlexander%2DHamilton%2DSecretary%2Dof%2DTreasury1780</link>
		<description> Even as &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.agorafinancial.com/iousa.html&quot;&gt;I.O.U.S.A, a documentary looking at the United States&apos; $53T national debt&lt;/a&gt;, is to be shown at &lt;i&gt;both&lt;/i&gt; the Democratic and Republican conventions, economists are beginning to openly discuss the previously unthinkable - &lt;a href=&quot;http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121936581501662161.html?mod=googlenews_wsj&quot;&gt;should America should default on some or perhaps all it&apos;s obligations?&lt;/a&gt; Although some argue a sovereign default by the United States would not be the end of the world, with political fallout more severe than financial, most overlook the obvious: &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.eurointelligence.com/article.581+M563d02ed27c.0.html&quot;&gt;America has been quietly, slowly, but most certainly defaulting on much of it&apos;s outstanding debt since 2002&lt;/a&gt;, when the most recent Great US Dollar collapse began.  A similar &quot;soft default&quot; occurred in the late 1970&apos;s when The United States, faced with apparently insurmountable foreign debts,  &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.howestreet.com/articles/index.php?article_id=7134&quot;&gt;engineered a US Dollar decline in cooperation with the Group of Seven Industrialised Nations&lt;/a&gt;. 

Apparently when deciding between reducing&amp;#0160;the US debt or maintaing a strong US Dollar, those in charge decided to sacrifice the greenback.  Tough one &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.ustreas.gov/tic/mfh.txt&quot;&gt;if you&apos;re holding long term US Treasury bonds&lt;/a&gt;. </description>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">tag:metafilter.com,2008:site.74404</guid>
		<pubDate>Tue, 26 Aug 2008 02:30:39 -0800</pubDate>
		<category>banking</category>
		<category>capitalmarkets</category>
		<category>controlledinflation</category>
		<category>economics</category>
		<category>finance</category>
		<category>inflation</category>
		<category>markets</category>
		<dc:creator>Mutant</dc:creator>
	</item>
      <item>
		<title>While this is timely information bank failures are normal part of life.</title>
		<link>http://www.metafilter.com/73294/While%2Dthis%2Dis%2Dtimely%2Dinformation%2Dbank%2Dfailures%2Dare%2Dnormal%2Dpart%2Dof%2Dlife</link>
		<description> Worried about bank failures?   First step: &lt;a href=&quot;http://www4.fdic.gov/IDASP/main_bankfind.asp&quot;&gt;check if your bank is insured&lt;/a&gt; by the &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.fdic.gov/&quot;&gt;Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC)&lt;/a&gt;.  If so, then your first $100K is insured against loss so no worries. &lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;Got more than $100K?  Well then, you&apos;d better speak with EDIE. &lt;a href=&quot;http://www4.fdic.gov/EDIE/&quot;&gt;EDIE &lt;i&gt;(the &lt;b&gt;E&lt;/b&gt;lectronic &lt;b&gt;D&lt;/b&gt;eposit &lt;b&gt;I&lt;/b&gt;nsurance &lt;b&gt;E&lt;/b&gt;stimator)&lt;/i&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/i&gt; will tell you exactly how much FDIC insurance coverage you&apos;ve got.

The maximum coverage is $100K &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.fdic.gov/deposit/deposits/insured/index.html&quot;&gt;&lt;i&gt;per depositor per savings account&lt;/i&gt;&lt;/a&gt; per institution.  So one approach would be to distribute one&apos;s money at multiple financial institutions.  But by enlisting the entire family, the apparent FDIC limits for deposits at a single institution can be circumvented. Assuming we&apos;re talking about a married couple with two children, here&apos;s how it works.  

Husband and wife each maintain separate savings accounts, gaining FDIC coverage on an aggregate amount &lt;i&gt;greater than $100K but less than $200K&lt;/i&gt;.  The children can help out here as well; by opening accounts in their name, and using either a &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.investorwords.com/2851/living_trust.html&quot;&gt;living trust&lt;/a&gt;  or what is called a &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/payableondeath.asp&quot;&gt;&lt;i&gt;Payable On Death account&lt;/i&gt;&lt;/a&gt; another $100K per child &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.fdic.gov/deposit/deposits/financial/categories4.html#revocable&quot;&gt;will gain FDIC protection&lt;/a&gt;. And IRAs, are insured to a max of $250K per account holder, regardless of other funds on deposit.  

Using this approach, a family of four can gain FDIC coverage totaling almost one million dollars of deposits at a single institution.  What ever you do, &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.fdic.gov/deposit/deposits/financial/misunderstandings.html&quot;&gt;don&apos;t make these mistakes&lt;/a&gt;.

Troubled by trusts?  Confused by all these accounts?  

Well, the simplest approach would be to deposit your money into one of the 73 Massachusetts based banks which is a member of &lt;i&gt;both&lt;/i&gt; the FDIC and &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.difxs.com/DIF/Home.aspx&quot;&gt;&lt;i&gt;The Depositors Insurance Fund (DIF)&lt;/i&gt;&lt;/a&gt;.  

After FDIC coverage has been exceeded, this private insurance covers any shortfalls.  The last time we saw a large number of bank failures, the DIF covered uninsured losses of some 6,500 depositors at 19 failed member financial institutions.

Since it&apos;s inception &lt;a href=&quot;http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Depositors_Insurance_Fund&quot;&gt;&lt;i&gt;&quot;no depositor has ever lost a penny in a bank insured by both the FDIC and the DIF&quot;&lt;/i&gt;&lt;/a&gt;. </description>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 14 Jul 2008 06:58:14 -0800</pubDate>
		<category>banking</category>
		<category>capitalmarkets</category>
		<category>depositinsurance</category>
		<category>DIF</category>
		<category>economics</category>
		<category>FDIC</category>
		<category>finance</category>
		<category>markets</category>
		<dc:creator>Mutant</dc:creator>
	</item>
      <item>
		<title>Sir John Templeton, 1912-2008, RIP and thank you for the investing lessons.</title>
		<link>http://www.metafilter.com/73155/Sir%2DJohn%2DTempleton%2D19122008%2DRIP%2Dand%2Dthank%2Dyou%2Dfor%2Dthe%2Dinvesting%2Dlessons</link>
		<description> The simple phrase &lt;i&gt;&quot;it&apos;s different this time&quot;&lt;/i&gt; are the four most expensive words in the English language.  &lt;a href=&quot;http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Templeton&quot;&gt;Sir John Templeton&lt;/a&gt;, &lt;a href=&quot;http://us.ft.com/ftgateway/superpage.ft?news_id=fto070820081201128948&amp;page=2&quot;&gt;1912-2008&lt;/a&gt;, we thank you for this lesson and countless others. One of modern finance&apos;s greatest pioneers, in 1954 Sir John Templeton launched what was one of the first globally oriented mutual funds, &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.streetstories.com/john_templeton.html&quot;&gt;Templeton Growth Fund&lt;/a&gt;.  At that time, almost nobody invested &lt;i&gt;outside&lt;/i&gt; The United States. However Templeton argued that by restricting choices to domestic securities, investors were denying themselves of the chance to markedly increase portfolio diversification, lower volatility while increasing overall returns. 

Today &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.forbes.com/forbes/2004/0726/138.html&quot;&gt;Templeton&apos;s approach to portfolio diversification is textbook at business schools&lt;/a&gt;.  Ideas and theories he devised and put into practice decades ago led to such stunning performance that in 1999 Money Magazine called Sir John &#8220;arguably the greatest global stock picker of the century&#8221;.  Over a period of forty years, Templeton Growth Fund returned &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.globefund.com/servlet/story/GFGAM.20080709.RTEMPLETON09/GFStory/&quot;&gt;an average of 14.5% per annum&lt;/a&gt;. 

In 1992, a month before his 80th birthday, Templeton &lt;a href=&quot;http://alternativestocklibrary.com/library/?article=164&quot;&gt;sold his mutual fund empire&lt;/a&gt; for a reported $440 million to Franklin Resources Inc. of San Mateo, California.  

While still was active in the fund&apos;s strategic management,  Templeton next turned his attention to religion and charitable endeavours,  founding the &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.templeton.org/&quot;&gt;John Templeton Foundation&lt;/a&gt; which he intended to &lt;i&gt;&quot;serve as a philanthropic catalyst for research on concepts and realities such as love, gratitude, forgiveness and creativity.&quot;&lt;/i&gt;

Sir John did, however, leave those of us still learning how to invest with one final gift:   &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.franklintempleton.com/retail/pdf/home/splash_PUB/TL_R16_1207.pdf&quot;&gt;Sir John Templeton&apos;s 16 Rules for Investment Success.&lt;/a&gt; [.pdf]

Sir John Templeton, 1918-2008, RIP and Godspeed. </description>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 09 Jul 2008 03:48:25 -0800</pubDate>
		<category>banking</category>
		<category>economics</category>
		<category>equities</category>
		<category>finance</category>
		<category>investing</category>
		<category>investinglegends</category>
		<category>markets</category>
		<category>stockmarket</category>
		<category>wallstreet</category>
		<dc:creator>Mutant</dc:creator>
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		<title>Is Ben Bernanke a finally coming out of the closet?</title>
		<link>http://www.metafilter.com/72377/Is%2DBen%2DBernanke%2Da%2Dfinally%2Dcoming%2Dout%2Dof%2Dthe%2Dcloset</link>
		<description> While the wild crowd call it &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.bostonherald.com/business/general/view.bg?articleid=1098267&quot;&gt;&quot;Woodstock for Central Bankers&quot;&lt;/a&gt;, others get festivities off on a sour note, referring to it as &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.bos.frb.org/phillips2008/&quot;&gt;&quot;Understanding Inflation and the Implications for Monetary Policy&quot;&lt;/a&gt;.

Regardless of what &lt;i&gt;your&lt;/i&gt; invitation to this party reads, it starts today, Monday June 9th on the 50th anniversary of &lt;a href=&quot;http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phillips_curve&quot;&gt;The Phillips Curve&lt;/a&gt;, a previously discredited forecasting tool which may be revived by &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/bios/board/bernanke.htm&quot;&gt;Ben Bernanke&lt;/a&gt; at The Federal Reserve. The Phillips Curve models an inverse relationship between unemployment and the rate of inflation. Specifically, as inflation &lt;i&gt;increases&lt;/i&gt; unemployment &lt;i&gt;decreases&lt;/i&gt;, and vice versa.  Adherents of The Philips Curve argue for a monetary policy accepting &lt;i&gt;relatively&lt;/i&gt; high rates of inflation as a trade off for low unemployment.  

While we have seen The Phillips Curve hold during long periods of both American and British economic history we have also seen &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.sparknotes.com/economics/macro/measuring2/section3.rhtml&quot;&gt;1970&apos;s style stagflation invalidate this theory&lt;/a&gt;, and today many believe the purest form of this model to be flawed. However variants of The Phillips Curve exist and are still in use by a variety of market participants to help forecast interest rates. 

It was long suspected Alan Greenspan used what is known as &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/fedmodel.asp&quot;&gt;&quot;The Fed Model&quot;&lt;/a&gt; - a comparison of the ratio of stock&apos;s &lt;i&gt;earnings to prices&lt;/i&gt;&lt;sup&gt;1&lt;/sup&gt; against the &lt;i&gt;yield on a 10 year Treasury bond&lt;/i&gt; - to help guide decisions regarding monetary policy.  Knowing precisely what models are used by The Fed is highly valued information to those hoping to anticipate - and thus profit from - changes in interest rates. 

Until now, Fed watchers &lt;a href=&quot;http://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2007/07/phillips-curve-is-alive-and-well.html&quot;&gt;could only speculate&lt;/a&gt; about the tools Ben Bernanke would deploy as part of his decision making process.  But with his keynote address at this conference, and considering &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2003/20030723/default.htm&quot;&gt;other times&lt;/a&gt; &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/Bernanke20070710a.htm&quot;&gt;he&apos;s mentioned&lt;/a&gt; this model, it&apos;s now obvious - Ben Bernanke is a closet Phillips Curver. 

No doubt a large number of market participants are busily building their own Phillips Curve models.

&lt;small&gt;&lt;sup&gt;1&lt;/sup&gt;That is, a ratio calculated as &lt;i&gt;earning divided by price&lt;/i&gt;, not to be confused with the more commonly known &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/price-earningsratio.asp&quot;&gt;&lt;i&gt;price to earnings ratio&lt;/i&gt;&lt;/a&gt;, or PE.&lt;/small&gt; </description>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 09 Jun 2008 04:01:36 -0800</pubDate>
		<category>banking</category>
		<category>economics</category>
		<category>federalreserve</category>
		<category>fedpolicy</category>
		<category>finance</category>
		<category>interestrates</category>
		<category>markets</category>
		<dc:creator>Mutant</dc:creator>
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		<title>Islamic Banking - a compelling mix of religion and finance</title>
		<link>http://www.metafilter.com/72315/Islamic%2DBanking%2Da%2Dcompelling%2Dmix%2Dof%2Dreligion%2Dand%2Dfinance</link>
		<description> While western banking institutions continue to reel from &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/news/columnists/article.html?in_article_id=423684&amp;in_author_id=2025&amp;in_page_id=19&quot;&gt;the credit crunch&lt;/a&gt;, Islamic banking, with assets &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.ibfim.com/index.php?option=com_content&amp;task=view&amp;id=1330&amp;Itemid=179&quot;&gt;approaching one trillion dollars, is growing at roughly 20% pa&lt;/a&gt; by offering Sharia compliant - and only Sharia compliant - financial products.  But compliance to Sharia law in matters financial is not easy &lt;small&gt;&lt;small&gt;(&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.metafilter.com/41803/no-interest-no-profit&quot;&gt;previously&lt;/a&gt;)&lt;/small&gt;&lt;/small&gt;. &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.religioustolerance.org/islsharia.htm&quot;&gt;Sharia law&lt;/a&gt;, derived from The Koran, is central to all aspects of Islamic life including, of course, financial affairs.  Devout Muslims are forbidden from investing in businesses dealing in alcohol, tobacco, pornography, weapons or pork. Further constraining Islamic Bankers, financial products offering interest (&lt;i&gt;making money from money&lt;/i&gt;, &quot;riba&quot;) or allowing the holder to profit from speculation (&lt;i&gt;uncertainty or gambling&lt;/i&gt;, &quot;gharar&quot;) are expressly forbidden by The Koran.
 
Considering such restrictions one might think cash is the only Sharia compliant investment.  But such thinking is deeply rooted in the mindset of Anglo American capitalism. Indeed, Islamic Banking - &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.businessdictionary.com/definition/ethical-investment.html&quot;&gt;ethical investment&lt;/a&gt; by definition - offers devout Muslims a wide range of Sharia compliant, financial products. 
 
&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/murabaha.asp&quot;&gt;&lt;i&gt;Murabaha&lt;/i&gt;&lt;/a&gt; is a transaction where all profit earned by the seller must be revealed to the purchaser.  &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.islamicmortgage.org/2007/03/23/islamic-mortgages-what-is-islamic-mortgage/&quot;&gt;Sharia compliant &lt;i&gt;Ijara&lt;/i&gt; mortgages&lt;/a&gt; are structured in this manner, where a property, acquired and owned by a bank, is paid off by the purchaser via fixed monthly payments broken down as rent plus equity.   And lest one think Islamic banking incapable of recognising business realities, &lt;i&gt;Tawliyah&lt;/i&gt; or &lt;i&gt;Wadiah&lt;/i&gt; - selling at cost or at loss respectively - are Sharia compliant transactions.

&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sukuk.asp&quot;&gt;&lt;i&gt;Sukuk&lt;/i&gt;&lt;/a&gt; is a Sharia compliant bond. It works by, for example, purchasing then leasing out land with capital paid in.  &lt;i&gt;Profits&lt;/i&gt; are returned to the Sukuk holder instead of interest. Such vehicles allows investors to realise regular return on their capital, but &lt;i&gt;not by the receipt of interest&lt;/i&gt;.  Sukuk is superior to many Western fixed income products, as there are &lt;i&gt;always&lt;/i&gt; physical assets underlying the structure.

&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.takaful.com.sa/m1sub1.asp&quot;&gt;Takaful&lt;/a&gt; - Sharia compliant insurance - pools the financial resources of a group of Muslims, and allowing them to claim benefit when needed.  The &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.icmif.org/services/takaful/about.asp&quot;&gt;five principles&lt;/a&gt; of &lt;i&gt;Takaful&lt;/i&gt; encourage mutual cooperation, personal responsibility and foster community.  

With these basic structures almost any retail financial product can be offered in a Sharia compliant manner.  And Islamic banking is big business; &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.hsbcamanah.com/1/2/hsbc-amanah/&quot;&gt;HSBC&lt;/a&gt;, &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&amp;sid=ax47JhwC1NRI&quot;&gt;Barclays&lt;/a&gt; and many other western insitutions now offer Islamic financial products.  

Finally, western governments have caught on as well - &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/8ccdcd48-253b-11dd-a14a-000077b07658.html&quot;&gt;England &lt;/a&gt; and &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/022a0494-338d-11dd-ba8a-0000779fd2ac.html&quot;&gt;Hong Kong&lt;/a&gt; both have plans to issue Islamic bonds, hoping to tap into offshore oil wealth. </description>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 06 Jun 2008 08:40:00 -0800</pubDate>
		<category>banking</category>
		<category>economics</category>
		<category>finance</category>
		<category>islam</category>
		<category>islamicbanking</category>
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		<dc:creator>Mutant</dc:creator>
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