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For fifteen hours, we hold sovereignty in our hands

Polls will open in less than twelve hours for a referendum to end the 307-year Union between England and Scotland. With an unprecedented 97% voter registration, including hundreds of thousands of 16 and 17 year olds, there are predictions of turnout well over 80% across the country. [more inside]
posted by Happy Dave on Sep 17, 2014 - 268 comments

The Era of Big Metafilter is Over

Tonight, President Barack Obama will deliver his 2014 State of the Union address. A stream will be available via the White House and from many other outlets. [more inside]
posted by Drinky Die on Jan 28, 2014 - 449 comments

DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN

Respected polling firm Gallup had a disastrous 2012, with a final presidential poll showing Romney 49-48 over Obama, some five points off of the final result. So what exactly went wrong?
posted by Chrysostom on Mar 12, 2013 - 85 comments

Democrats and Republicans can't even agree about food

Public Policy Polling (previously) dares to address the issues tearing this country apart- such as whether Olive Garden constitutes 'a quality source of authentic ethnic food'. What are the food issues polarizing America? [more inside]
posted by showbiz_liz on Feb 27, 2013 - 63 comments

So I voted for an axe-murderer

A new MP, Gloria De Piero was taken aback by how many people despised her because of her new profession. So she took to the streets to find out why. [more inside]
posted by smoke on Jan 2, 2013 - 20 comments

Public Policy Polling: "Do you have enough Santorum in your life, or not?"

How Polling Firm PPP Won The Election With Its Hilarious And Infuriating Questions: "Public Policy Polling, the firm that correctly predicted all 50 states in the presidential election, is known for asking some weird, quirky and, sometimes, controversial questions in its polls... Here are some of the firm's best questions of the election cycle." [more inside]
posted by flex on Nov 14, 2012 - 37 comments

The. Polls. Have. Stopped Making. Any. Sense.

“Maybe after the election I’ll have a better sense of the big picture,” he continues. “I do think I’ll probably try to learn statistics.”
"The. Polls. Have. Stopped. Making. Any. Sense." profiles Nate Silver of 538 and other polling innovations. Meanwhile, authentic polling nerds read the Princeton Election Consortium, pundits complain that "Political Scientists are Killing the Campaign 'Narrative'," and Peter Levine asks, "Would we better off without any horse-race polls?"
posted by anotherpanacea on Oct 4, 2012 - 89 comments

Handicapping the election

Now that we're in the homestretch toward the November Presidential election, it's time to choose your favorite electoral-vote projection oracle. All of these are sites that monitor individual state polls and voter sentiment trendlines. Here are some options: — Electoral-vote.com has been at it since 2004 and is a bonanza for polling stats junkies. Currently it's calling the electoral vote at 332 for Obama, 206 for Romney, with no toss-ups. (It takes 270 to win.) The site is run from The Netherlands by Andrew S. Tanenbaum, who prepares daily commentary and news analysis. His leanings are Democratic; for those who are bothered by that, he suggests a Republican-leaning alternative: [more inside]
posted by beagle on Sep 4, 2012 - 88 comments

Misconception #247: It's actually called Bidencare.

What's Obamacare? A studious Reddit user has read the mammoth 955-page Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, and outlined the important points of what the new law actually does, with specific citations. While the recently-upheld law itself remains unpopular, most individual components of the bill enjoy widespread popularity among republican politicians and the public, despite the fact that both groups remain largely unaware of the bill's actual provisions. [more inside]
posted by schmod on Jul 2, 2012 - 82 comments

A treasure trove for researchers

Polltopia (625 kb zip file) "It's a treasure trove for researchers that I'm sure is unmatched in the world of modern polling: [Daily Kos has] assembled all the raw data for every single Daily Kos/SEIU poll conducted in 2011 into a single file. That's 46 polls, including questionnaires ... in a nifty 623 KB package. No one else releases information this granular, so if you've ever wanted to take a deep, deep dive into raw polling data, this is your chance."
posted by crunchland on Feb 21, 2012 - 22 comments

"Signature domestic legislative achievement."

Public support for the new healthcare law has dropped significantly, with just 34% of Americans viewing the law favorably, the lowest level of support since the president signed the law in March 2010. A new survey by the nonpartisan Kaiser Family Foundation, deals a blow to the Obama administration as Republican presidential candidates keep up their pledges to repeal the president’s signature domestic legislative achievement. 'Much of the decline appears to have been driven by faltering support among Democrats, just 52% of whom said they view the law favorably, down from 65% a month earlier. Support among independents dropped from 36% to 32%. And support from Republicans fell from 14% to 11%.' [more inside]
posted by VikingSword on Oct 28, 2011 - 91 comments

The numbers behind H8

With a ruling scheduled today on Prop 8 — the California ballot measure that took away the right to marry from same-sex couples — Dave Fleischer has an in-depth analysis of all of the polling data on Prop 8, and his findings include some counter-intuitive numbers, like that the confusing wording actually ended up helping the No vote more than the Yes.
posted by klangklangston on Aug 4, 2010 - 619 comments

Lies, Damn Lies, and Daily Kos polls

For the past year and a half, Daily Kos has been running weekly polls from the respected polling firm, Research 2000. Earlier this month, former Daily Kos diarist Nate Silver of Five Thirty Eight published a rating of pollsters that placed R2k near the bottom, leading Markos to fire R2K. Today, Markos alleges that R2K committed fraud, publishing a study of their results by independent statisticians. He promises to sue.
posted by empath on Jun 29, 2010 - 91 comments

Do you like this post? a)Yes b)Of course c)How could I not? d)Maybe

Rethinking Public Opinion - the immense importance of public opinion polling in American politics, and the under-reported problems at the heart of the enterprise, combine to call for a serious critique of the polling industry, its assumptions, and its method
posted by Gyan on Nov 8, 2008 - 40 comments

Election Protection

Having trouble voting? Have a question about the polling process in your state? The folks at the non-partisan 866-OUR-VOTE Election Protection Hotline are there to help. Online, they offer information about voting in your state, the ability to report problems at the polls or live chat with Election Protection workers.
posted by eschatfische on Nov 4, 2008 - 14 comments

Querying the noosphere

According to a recent international survey, there remains no global consensus regarding who was responsible for the 9/11 attacks. "On average, 46 percent of those surveyed said al Qaeda was responsible, 15 percent said the U.S. government, 7 percent said Israel and 7 percent said some other perpetrator... The U.S. government was to blame, according to 23 percent of Germans and 15 percent of Italians." The poll was collected by World Public Opinion, a neat website filled with various polls about interesting topics.
posted by Baby_Balrog on Sep 11, 2008 - 131 comments

What Muslims Really Think

Who are Muslims? Gallup has conducted a poll "in 40 predominantly Muslim nations and among significant Muslim populations in the West. It is the first set of unified and scientifically representative views from 1.3 billion Muslims globally." They'll be parsing and interpreting this data for years, but for the time being, they've offered some of their key results online and in print. See also, the Muslim-West Facts Initiative. (via) [more inside]
posted by anotherpanacea on Jul 28, 2008 - 37 comments

What’s for Dinner? The Pollster Wants to Know

What’s for Dinner? The Pollster Wants to Know
"If there’s butter and white wine in your refrigerator and Fig Newtons in the cookie jar, you’re likely to vote for Hillary Clinton. Prefer olive oil, Bear Naked granola and a latte to go? You probably like Barack Obama, too. And if you’re leaning toward John McCain, it’s all about kicking back with a bourbon and a stuffed crust pizza while you watch the Democrats fight it out next week in Pennsylvania." [more inside]
posted by ericb on Apr 18, 2008 - 74 comments

Perhaps the end of the hype cycle?

"Bitter" harvest The week started off in classic campaign form: a report of remarks made by Obama percolated through the media and came to dominate the news cycle. In typically circular fashion, the exhaustive coverage came to provide its own justification, as journalists covered the controversy that they had largely created... [more inside]
posted by psmealey on Apr 16, 2008 - 282 comments

Voters get Santorumed

Pennsylvania polling places regarding September 08 elections to have everything but voters.
posted by duende on Oct 26, 2007 - 31 comments

Madisonian Democracy without Madison Avenue

Deliberative Polling®, developed by Professor James S. Fishkin, is a technique which combines deliberation in small group discussions with scientific random sampling to provide public consultation for public policy and for electoral issues. Since deliberation is good for civic health, this model has also been floated as a fourth branch of government: Deliberation Day. This proposal has met with some criticism. (Many links are pdf.)
posted by anotherpanacea on Jan 22, 2007 - 13 comments

2006 Elections, interactive style

New York Times 2006 interactive elections map. A really impressive guide to the current House, Senate, and governor races with all of the poll data and analysis a political junky could ask for; plus the ability to modify the maps by population, ethnicity, and income levels. It also allows you to play out scenarios. [registration may be required]
posted by blahblahblah on Jul 27, 2006 - 18 comments

Next door, yet worlds apart, we look at each other

While the nonpartisan Pew Research Center normally focuses on US domestic issues, such as the recently and narrowly failed flag-burning amendment, the Pew Global Attitudes Project takes a wider view with reports such as The Great Divide: How Westerners and Muslims View Each Other and 16-Nation Pew Global Attitudes Survey, with results that are parts obvious, non-obvious, foreboding, hopeful and contradictory in how the two societies seemingly feel about themselves and each other. [mi]
posted by Mr. Six on Jun 28, 2006 - 8 comments

World fears new Bush era

Guess what? Another poll (since MeFites enjoy them sooooo much)! This one is a take on how much the world trusts and loves Bush.
posted by acrobat on Jan 20, 2005 - 7 comments

Polling truth

With one week to go, Americans are being inundated by polls. At least 112 have been published for the presidential contest in the last week alone. Democratic pollster Mark Blumenthal maintains that, in the campaign's last hours, we tend to see 'undecided' voters 'break' for the challenger. Testing this theory, blogger Chris Bowers examined presidential poll results since 1976, and calculated that undecided voters broke for the challenger 86% of the time. So, is this really how it's going to turn out? Are the Republicans' attempts to 'steal' another election going to bear any fruit?
posted by acrobat on Oct 26, 2004 - 11 comments

landline, schmandline.

Hold the phone. You probably already know that many Americans are ditching their land lines in favor of cell phones:
It is part of a generational shift to wireless, says Leap's chief executive, Harvey White. "Our demographic is younger, and when people start a household today they simply never bother to get a land line."
But were you aware that pollsters don't call cell phones? Media saturation, changes in communications technology, and missed demographics (americans abroad, for example) seem to make polls increasingly irrelevant. (first link via e-v.com)
posted by whatnot on Sep 17, 2004 - 21 comments

the wonderful world of polls

Exit polls are back from the dead. After a total failure in both the 2000 and 2002, exit polls return to the national election scene, with the Iowa caucus exit poll results (PDF). But can the new team overcome the strong distrust of the previous organization?
posted by calwatch on Jan 19, 2004 - 7 comments

Poll of Palestinians by PCPO May 24 - 30, 2002

Poll of Palestinians by PCPO May 24 - 30, 2002 We can get conflicting Israeli views in their diverse news sources and polls. Here is a Palestinian poll, recently done It it does not deal with the Israel conflict but rather with the present government. This may provide some useful insights.
posted by Postroad on Jun 5, 2002 - 13 comments

Polls

Polls Come Under Fire. Watchdog Group Issues Rebuke on Poll on Islamic Countries. Meanwhile, those bogus aggregates continue to circulate freely in this country and around the world.
posted by semmi on Mar 22, 2002 - 16 comments

Muslims blast CNN polling techniques.

Muslims blast CNN polling techniques. CNN apologizes and offers up an excuse to justify act. But is poll (1) out of place, (2) unjustified, (3) a fair assignment to get some interesting and/or useful information? (4) an overreaction on the part of those who would control what their children should and should not know and see.
posted by Postroad on Dec 20, 2001 - 20 comments

With Many Watching, Solomon Islands Holds National Elections

With Many Watching, Solomon Islands Holds National Elections
We called it a "failed state." Polling has begun in the Solomon Islands for a new national Parliament. Many are watching and hoping that a new government will restore a semblance of order to the cities and revive the bankrupt economy. There is practically no law in the cities, since the coup last year. Citizens of Honiara, the capital recently blockaded the home of PM Sogavare in protest of his unwillingness to quell ongoing ethnic militia warfare. The national airline ran out of gasoline yesterday, stranding voters returning to their home provinces. But this is the age of the Internet, and SI Brodcasting Co. and Radio Australia are providing live coverage online.
posted by rschram on Dec 4, 2001 - 3 comments

"I don't support military action: 12%"

"I don't support military action: 12%" Online CNN poll asks, "For how long would you be willing to support U.S. military action against terrorism?" There are a lot more pacifists then I would have expected, given the circumstances. Of course, "As long as it takes" sits at 76%, which is also not surprising. We'll see what that number is in six months...
posted by tranquileye on Sep 18, 2001 - 25 comments

Washington Post/ABC News Poll: Bush's approval rating at 87%

Washington Post/ABC News Poll: Bush's approval rating at 87% - I wonder if that rating is going to go on a roller-coaster ride similar to his father's.
posted by mrbula on Sep 13, 2001 - 17 comments

Linear regression analysis

Linear regression analysis adds approximately 2700 votes to Gore's tally -- "If Palm Beach county were like the other counties, according to estimates with Bush's votes Buchanan would have gotten around 600 votes in that county instead of 3407 votes he actually got. If we used Gore's votes to predict Buchanan's vote, we would have predicted Buchanan to get somewhere around 792 votes. ...[in any case] it can be claimed with a high degree of statistical confidence that the mistakes cost Gore somewhere between 2000 and 3000 votes. If Bush wins Florida by an amount smaller than this, such as 1700 votes, a strong claim can be made that the confusion over the unique ballot structure in Palm Beach cost Gore the presidency...."
posted by johnb on Nov 9, 2000 - 25 comments

Inside.com Publishes Exit Polling Data

Inside.com Publishes Exit Polling Data (4:09 p.m. EST) George W. Bush appears to hold a slight popular-vote lead 49-48 percent. Al Gore is ahead in Florida, Illinois, Maine, Michigan, New Jersey, California and Washington. Bush holds an edge in New Hampshire, West Virginia, Ohio, Missouri, Arkansas, Tennessee, New Mexico, Wisconsin and Iowa. Minnesota and Pennsylvania are, crucially, too close to call. One freaky scenario being bandied about: the race ends in an electoral college tie, 269-269. In Senate races, Hillary Clinton is ahead in New York. Incumbents Ashcroft, Grams, Roth, Robb, and McCollum are losing. In Michigan, Abraham is tied.
posted by josholalia on Nov 7, 2000 - 16 comments

I just got polled for the presidential election

I just got polled for the presidential election. . .and they didn't even mention Nader's name as a choice for president! I had to tell them 'I am voting for Ralph Nader." Ralph is pulling 6% in recent national polls. This really gets me steamed that they don't include his name in the %#@*!! polls.
posted by snakey on Oct 22, 2000 - 14 comments

More than half of the public opinion survey firms in the US have no idea what they're doing, and 57% of *those* have never even heard of the Internet.

More than half of the public opinion survey firms in the US have no idea what they're doing, and 57% of *those* have never even heard of the Internet.
posted by baylink on Sep 22, 2000 - 2 comments

We may be lonely, but at least we're enjoying it.

We may be lonely, but at least we're enjoying it. Today, the results of a new internet use survey were released. The main finding is that 70% of users say that the internet is improving their lives, another notable stat was that over 50% of those polled had used the internet before. There was one odd thing they found, almost 60% said they enjoyed the idiot box (TV) more than the internet. Could it be because you actually have to participate to use the internet, and it's not a passive medium? Personally, I can find more enjoyable content on the web in five minutes than I can surfing a TV dial for a week.
posted by mathowie on Feb 24, 2000 - 3 comments

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