Now that we're in the homestretch toward the November Presidential election, it's time to choose your favorite electoral-vote projection oracle. All of these are sites that monitor individual state polls and voter sentiment trendlines. Here are some options:
has been at it since 2004 and is a bonanza for polling stats junkies. Currently it's calling the electoral vote at 332 for Obama, 206 for Romney, with no toss-ups. (It takes 270 to win.) The site is run from The Netherlands by Andrew S. Tanenbaum
, who prepares daily commentary and news analysis. His leanings are Democratic; for those who are bothered by that, he suggests a Republican-leaning alternative: [more inside]
posted by beagle
on Sep 4, 2012 -
(625 kb zip file) "It's a treasure trove for researchers that I'm sure is unmatched in the world of modern polling:
[Daily Kos has] assembled all the raw data for every single Daily Kos/SEIU poll conducted in 2011 into a single file. That's 46 polls, including questionnaires ... in a nifty 623 KB package. No one else releases information this granular, so if you've ever wanted to take a deep, deep dive into raw polling data, this is your chance."
posted by crunchland
on Feb 21, 2012 -
With a ruling scheduled
today on Prop 8 — the California ballot measure that took away the right to marry from same-sex couples — Dave Fleischer has an in-depth analysis
of all of the polling data
on Prop 8, and his findings include some counter-intuitive numbers, like that the confusing wording actually ended up helping the No vote more than the Yes.
posted by klangklangston
on Aug 4, 2010 -
Rethinking Public Opinion
- the immense importance of public opinion polling in American politics, and the under-reported problems at the heart of the enterprise, combine to call for a serious critique of the polling industry, its assumptions, and its method
posted by Gyan
on Nov 8, 2008 -
According to a recent international survey
, there remains no global consensus regarding who was responsible for the 9/11 attacks. "On average, 46 percent of those surveyed said al Qaeda was responsible, 15 percent said the U.S. government, 7 percent said Israel and 7 percent said some other perpetrator... The U.S. government was to blame, according to 23 percent of Germans and 15 percent of Italians." The poll was collected by World Public Opinion
, a neat website filled with various polls about interesting topics.
posted by Baby_Balrog
on Sep 11, 2008 -
Who are Muslims?
Gallup has conducted a poll "in 40 predominantly Muslim nations and among significant Muslim populations in the West. It is the first set of unified and scientifically representative views from 1.3 billion Muslims globally." They'll be parsing and interpreting this data for years, but for the time being, they've offered some of their key results online
and in print
. See also, the Muslim-West Facts Initiative
) [more inside]
posted by anotherpanacea
on Jul 28, 2008 -
What’s for Dinner? The Pollster Wants to Know
"If there’s butter and white wine in your refrigerator and Fig Newtons in the cookie jar, you’re likely to vote for Hillary Clinton. Prefer olive oil, Bear Naked granola and a latte to go? You probably like Barack Obama, too. And if you’re leaning toward John McCain, it’s all about kicking back with a bourbon and a stuffed crust pizza while you watch the Democrats fight it out next week in Pennsylvania." [more inside]
posted by ericb
on Apr 18, 2008 -
Pennsylvania polling places regarding September 08 elections to have everything but voters.
posted by duende
on Oct 26, 2007 -
Poll of Palestinians by PCPO May 24 - 30, 2002
We can get conflicting Israeli views in their diverse news sources and polls. Here is a Palestinian poll, recently done It it does not deal with the Israel conflict but rather with the present government. This may provide some useful insights.
posted by Postroad
on Jun 5, 2002 -
Come Under Fire.
Watchdog Group Issues Rebuke on Poll on Islamic Countries. Meanwhile, those bogus aggregates continue to circulate freely in this country and around the world.
posted by semmi
on Mar 22, 2002 -
Muslims blast CNN polling techniques.
CNN apologizes and offers up an excuse to justify act. But is poll (1) out of place, (2) unjustified, (3) a fair assignment to get some interesting and/or useful information? (4) an overreaction on the part of those who would control what their children should and should not know and see.
posted by Postroad
on Dec 20, 2001 -
"I don't support military action: 12%"
poll asks, "For how long would you be willing to support U.S. military action against terrorism?" There are a lot more pacifists then I would have expected, given the circumstances. Of course, "As long as it takes" sits at 76%, which is also not surprising. We'll see what that number is in six months...
posted by tranquileye
on Sep 18, 2001 -
Linear regression analysis adds approximately 2700 votes to Gore's tally
-- "If Palm Beach county were like the other counties, according to estimates with Bush's votes Buchanan would have gotten around 600 votes in that county instead of 3407 votes he actually got. If we used Gore's votes to predict Buchanan's vote, we would have predicted Buchanan to get somewhere around 792 votes. ...[in any case] it can be claimed with a high degree of statistical confidence that the mistakes cost Gore somewhere between 2000 and 3000 votes. If Bush wins Florida by an amount smaller than this, such as 1700 votes, a strong claim can be made that the confusion over the unique ballot structure in Palm Beach cost Gore the presidency...."
posted by johnb
on Nov 9, 2000 -
Inside.com Publishes Exit Polling Data
(4:09 p.m. EST) George W. Bush appears to hold a slight popular-vote lead 49-48 percent. Al Gore is ahead in Florida, Illinois, Maine, Michigan, New Jersey, California and Washington. Bush holds an edge in New Hampshire, West Virginia, Ohio, Missouri, Arkansas, Tennessee, New Mexico, Wisconsin and Iowa. Minnesota and Pennsylvania are, crucially, too close to call. One freaky scenario being bandied about: the race ends in an electoral college tie, 269-269. In Senate races, Hillary Clinton is ahead in New York. Incumbents Ashcroft, Grams, Roth, Robb, and McCollum are losing. In Michigan, Abraham is tied.
posted by josholalia
on Nov 7, 2000 -
I just got polled for the presidential election
. . .and they didn't even mention Nader's name as a choice for president! I had to tell them 'I am voting for Ralph Nader." Ralph is pulling 6% in recent national polls. This really gets me steamed that they don't include his name in the %#@*!! polls.
posted by snakey
on Oct 22, 2000 -
We may be lonely, but at least we're enjoying it.
Today, the results of a new internet use survey were released. The main finding is that 70% of users say that the internet is improving their lives, another notable stat was that over 50% of those polled had used the internet before. There was one odd thing they found, almost 60% said they enjoyed the idiot box (TV) more than the internet. Could it be because you actually have to participate to use the internet, and it's not a passive medium? Personally, I can find more enjoyable content on the web in five minutes than I can surfing a TV dial for a week.
posted by mathowie
on Feb 24, 2000 -