Obama: The Price of Being Black
posted by wittgenstein on Sep 22, 2008 - 76 comments

Margins of Error We can't seem to let the future alone. Even though we often get predictions about it so wrong. Because, as Niels Bohr once said, "Prediction is very difficult. Especially if it is about the future." What are the origins of political polling (beware of awful interface design)? And how is political polling evolving?
posted by jeanmari on Sep 8, 2008 - 5 comments

People vandalising Wikipedia is hardly a new thing but now even the office of the Australian Prime Minister, John Howard, is getting into the act. Website Wiki-Scanner (previously) has traced several edits to Wikipedia articles by the Prime Ministers staff, according to Australian newspaper The Courier Mail. And they aren't confined solely to the Wikipedia entry on the PM himself; there was even an act of vandalism on a martial-arts related entry, in which one of Howard's ministerial staffers wrote, “Poo bum dicky wee wee” on the page. Not good news on the eve of a federal election that the PM is largely expected to lose. Meanwhile, 'new media' is being put to good use at Opposition leader Kevin Rudd's website, Kevin07, where a recent blog entry compiles Youtube's 'best' political videos. Hours of fun for the whole family!
posted by Effigy2000 on Aug 23, 2007 - 17 comments

As in the 2004 elections, several useful sites have sprung up to keep track of the 2006 midterms for House, Senate and state gubernatorial races. Some have a political point of view, others don't, but they don't differ significantly on the outcome at this point. One of the veterans in this game is ElectionProjection.com, which was pretty close to actual results in '04. (A creation of "the Blogging Caesar"). From the right, there's MyElectionAnalysis.com, while ElectionPredictions seems to come from a neutral corner. All of these track statewide polls as they are published; they may differ in how they weight results. For a more subjective approach, see Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball or the Cook Political Report. Overall, the consensus seems to be that the GOP will hold both houses, but with slimmer margins, and lose on the gubernatorial front.
posted by beagle on Jul 10, 2006 - 30 comments

As Iraqis go to the polls on Jan. 30, it will be a daunting first exercise in democracy.
posted by furtive on Jan 26, 2005 - 31 comments

Yesterday's New York Times says Gore is still in the lead (story gone to New York Times archive hell). A story today says they two are neck-in-neck and Bush has lost his comfortable lead. Polls are worth about a nickel apiece when you burn them for firewood and can then turn down the thermostat.
posted by Mo Nickels on Sep 14, 2000 - 1 comment

Last week, Bush was up by 16 points. Today, Gore is up by 3. Who are all of these “swing” voters that can't make up their minds in the face of clear differences between the candidates?
posted by quirked on Aug 18, 2000 - 19 comments