Popular “prediction market” Intrade is shutting its doors to US Customers, following a suit (filed post-election fortunately) by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission. Some see this as inevitable, given their history of dissembling to regulators. Other (predictably) see it as another restriction of internet freedom. [more inside]
The Ideosphere, a prediction market like the one the Pentagon wanted to set up, predicts a 20% chance of the non-test use of a nuclear device on U.S. soil by 2010. Other predictions include the likelihood of various candidates winning the next Presidential election, as well as the number of troops killed in Iraq and the chance of a human clone by 2005.