Prediction markets trade uncertainty for collective wisdom, and have been proven to be more accurate than other mechanisms for predicting outcomes such as polls. Many corporate entities (HP, Intel, Google, Yahoo, Siemens, etc.) are said to be using them internally. Several successful prediction markets already exist, such as Hedgestreet, NewsFutures, the Iowa Electronic Markets, Hollywood Stock Exchange, and Inkling Markets. A spinoff of DARPA's Policy Analysis Market, prediction markets might be to markets what open source was to software.
posted on Dec 16, 2006 - View this thread