http://www.metafilter.com/tags/predictive Posts tagged with 'predictive' at MetaFilter. Mon, 26 Sep 2005 05:51:22 -0800 Mon, 26 Sep 2005 05:51:22 -0800 en-us http://blogs.law.harvard.edu/tech/rss 60 http://www.metafilter.com/45394/Google%2Dstarts%2Dan%2Dinternal%2Dfutures%2Dmarket <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2005/09/26/business/26google.html?ei=5090&amp;en=c171e8934faa7fc1&amp;ex=1285387200&amp;partner=rssuserland&amp;emc=rss&amp;pagewanted=print">Google's Crystal Ball::NYTimes.</a> Quite interesting...Via <a href="http://www.techdirt.com">TechDirt</a>: <blockquote>Google has created a <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction_market">predictive market system</a>, basically a way for its employees to bet on the likelihood of possible events. Such markets have long been used to predict world events, like election results. <a href="http://www.intrade.com/">Intrade</a>, part of the <a href="http://www.tradesports.com/aav2/TEN/TENhome.html">Trade Exchange Network</a>, allows people to bet on elections, stock market indexes and even the weather, for example.</blockquote> I wonder <a href="http://www.blogpulse.com/trend?query1=%22George+W.+Bush%22+%22resign%22&label1=Bush%2Bresign&query2=%22George+W.+Bush%22+%22impeach%22&label2=Bush%2Bimpeach&query3=%22George+W.+Bush%22+%22third+term%22&label3=Bush%2Bthird%2Bterm&days=90&x=20&y=11">how accurate </a>the <a href="http://www.blogpulse.com/trend?query1=Microsoft&label1=Microsoft&query2=Mac&label2=Mac&query3=Linux&label3=Linux&days=90&x=47&y=6">aggregated content</a> of blogs would be to <a href="http://www.blogpulse.com/trend?query1=%22Playstation+3%22+or+PS3&label1=PS3&query2=%22XBOX+360%22+or+%22XBOX360%22&label2=XBOX+360&query3=%22Nintendo+Revolution%22&label3=Nintendo+Revolution&days=60&x=27&y=7">measure the likelihood </a>of <a href="http://www.blogpulse.com/trend?query1=hurricane+texas&label1=hurricane+texas&query2=hurricane+louisiana&label2=hurricane+louisiana&query3=hurricane+florida&label3=hurricane+florida&days=90&x=46&y=8">prospective real world events</a>? The economist they consulted, <a href="http://www.sims.berkeley.edu/~hal/">Hal R. Varian</a>, has some <a href="http://www.sims.berkeley.edu/resources/infoecon/">interesting links </a>on his web page as well. I think that the internet better get their anti-spam technology up to par before we have people "gaming" the future through blogspam. For an explanation of Futures Markets (<a href="http://futures.tradingcharts.com/menu.html">charts</a>), see <a href="http://www.cftc.gov/opa/brochures/opaeconpurp.htm">this page</a> at the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission. tag:metafilter.com,2005:site.45394 Mon, 26 Sep 2005 05:51:22 -0800 blog data futurist gambling hedge information intelligence predictive rzklkng