MetaFilter posts tagged with recession and finance

UK and USA might lose AAA rating

memebake — Tue, 26 May 2009 15:11:41 -0800

Standard & Poor’s changed the UK's credit outlook from stable to negative a few days ago, and warned that there is a chance the UK could lose its AAA rating. Meanwhile, Moodys, another of the big 3 rating agencies, has warned that the US might also eventually lose its AAA rating. The UK announcement caused sterling to drop by 1% and the FTSE by 2%. However, many blame the same rating agencies for their part in triggering the subprime crisis. The irony of this is not lost on the Wall Street Journal, who note that "After all, those governments are jacking up spending, in part, to bail out the financial firms who gobbled up those 'AAA' asset backed securities duly blessed by the credit ratings firms." How did the CDO's get AAA rated in the first place? There are reports that it may have been a bug in the rating software, although Greenspan says its because the ratings were based on only the last two decades, giving a too-optimistic outlook. This reseach paper by Vasiliki Skreta and Laura Veldkamp looks through some of the options. Incidentally, all the ratings given by the rating agencies come with a disclaimer: S&P says in small print: "Any user of the information contained herein should not rely on any credit rating or other opinion contained herein in making any investment decision". Joseph Mason, a former economist at the US Treasury Department, points out that "The ratings giveth and the disclaimer takes it away."

"Because the math is really complicated people assume it must be right."

dersins — Tue, 10 Mar 2009 12:36:14 -0800

They are known as “quants” because they do quantitative finance. Seduced by a vision of mathematical elegance underlying some of the messiest of human activities, they apply skills they once hoped to use to untangle string theory or the nervous system to making money. "They Tried to Outsmart Wall Street." [spoiler inside] They failed.

Wall Street on the Tundra

shii — Wed, 04 Mar 2009 18:41:55 -0800

"Iceland is no longer a country. It is a hedge fund." Also: exploding Range Rovers and the environmental impacts on elves. (Pre-vi-ous-ly.)

Religious takes on the global financial crisis

desjardins — Wed, 14 Jan 2009 15:04:30 -0800

The Dalai Lama blames the financial crisis on a decline in spirituality. Hindus blame it on greed. Saudi Grand Mufti, Abdul Aziz al-Sheikh, blames the crisis on ignoring God's rules. Jewish scholars say we could have avoided a crisis by following Talmudic traditions. Pope Benedict sees the global financial system as "self-centred, short-sighted and lacking in concern for the destitute." Is it right to pray for the economy? (a Christian perspective). A Malaysian conference brings together Buddhists, Christians, Muslims, Hindus, Taoists, and Sikhs to discuss the crisis.

AAA?

Gyan — Mon, 24 Nov 2008 06:47:35 -0800

Anatomy of a Meltdown - Ben Bernanke and the financial crisis (in one page)

sovereign risk and the current economy

bystander — Mon, 03 Nov 2008 04:37:30 -0800

Another economic post. With the debt and equity markets in a comparative calm, a lot of people are asking what next? One area little examined is the idea of sovereign risk. Basically, those with the armies make to rules, and you don't want to be invested there when they change the rules,. The USA has been the power behind globalisation for over half a century, enforcing the rules of the marketplace we have grown to accept. Some are questioning whether it can maintain this position. Many countries have used their power to set the law to default on external debt, or in some cases, nationalise external investments. It is the last resort when your economy is in trouble, and a growing number of people see it on the cards for the USA (admittedly, with not much credibility). But who will be next?

Cui bono?

Pastabagel — Thu, 20 Sep 2007 09:41:30 -0800

On Tuesday, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 0.5%. Wall Street aggressively demanded the cut to stop the sub-prime mortgage contagion from triggering a credit crisis among large US and foreign investment banks and the collapse of their over-leveraged hedge funds, which ultimately threatened to drag the US economy into recession. The market rallied this week in response to the Fed's move. But there is no free lunch. Oil rallied also, to an all-time high of $81/bbl. The rate cut shattered the dollar, sending it to new lows against the Euro and to parity with the Canadian dollar. The falling dollar puts pressure on China, whose dollar-pegged currency has attracted the ire of many US politicians, causing China to threaten the US with the "nuclear option" of diversifying its foreign currency reserves away from the dollar. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia refuses to cut its interest rates in lockstep with the US for the first time ever, signaling that it may break its long standing dollar peg as well. In other words, foreign investors who currently own roughly 50% of the publicly-owned portion of the US national debt may flee the US bond markets. Result? We'll probably slide into recession anyway. But there is a silver lining: it turns out that many of those large investment banks and hedge funds were making far more money than anyone thought all along. Confused? Some background: Currency carry trade - how currencies are related to one another How interest rates, inflation, exchange rates, and trade deficits are interrelated How interest rates and bonds are related Peviously 1 2 3 4