345 posts tagged with statistics.
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China announces it is scoring its citizens using big data

China rates its own citizens - including online behaviour: "The Chinese government is currently implementing a nationwide electronic system, called the Social Credit System, attributing to each of its 1,3 billion citizens a score for his or her behavior. The system will be based on various criteria, ranging from financial credibility and criminal record to social media behavior. From 2020 onwards each adult citizen should, besides his identity card, have such a credit code." [more inside]
posted by kliuless on May 5, 2015 - 77 comments

The Richer and the Poorer

The Washington Post reports what the rich and poor actually spend their money on, and where [more inside]
posted by ourt on Apr 14, 2015 - 52 comments

Abortion: It's Not So Black and White

"From my point of view, I believe all babies go to heaven," King told me when I asked him to explain how both labels fit his viewpoint. "And if this baby were to live a life where it would be abused ... it's just really hard to explain. It gets into the rights of the woman, and her body, at the same time. It just sometimes gets really hazy on each side." Sarah Kliff at Vox on What Americans Think of Abortion
posted by chavenet on Apr 8, 2015 - 39 comments

BASP+NHSTP=0

Academic journal bans p-value significance test An editorial published in the academic journal Basic and Applied Social Psychology (BASP) has declared that the null hypothesis significance testing procedure (NHSTP) is 'invalid', and have banned it from future papers submitted to the journal. [more inside]
posted by MisantropicPainforest on Mar 19, 2015 - 59 comments

"P-hacking is widespread."

P-hacking, or inflation bias, is the selective inclusion of experimental results that suggest statistical significance, as well as the selective exclusion of results which argue against the hypothesis. Skewing work towards positive results helps investigators publish in high-profile journals, which in turn improves access to funding. In a recent PLOS publication, Michael Jennions and Megan Head use text-mining and meta-analyses to determine the extent to which this influences a broad array of published research, offering recommendations on how to reduce this practice.
posted by a lungful of dragon on Mar 17, 2015 - 7 comments

It's not the 7-10 Split

What’s the Hardest Shot in Bowling?
posted by ShooBoo on Feb 18, 2015 - 29 comments

They evolved. They rebelled. There are many copies. And they have a plan

The Philadelphia 76ers are currently the worst team in basketball, but in terms of expected value, they are crushing. [more inside]
posted by Potomac Avenue on Feb 16, 2015 - 108 comments

The Ouroboros of Scientific Evidence

"Do whatever it takes to not fool yourself, period, that's the scientific method" - Neil deGrasse Tyson. What if we can't do that?
posted by LiteS on Feb 13, 2015 - 37 comments

Additive-noise methods

How to tell correlation from causation - "The basic intuition behind the method demonstrated by Prof. Joris Mooij of the University of Amsterdam and his co-authors is surprisingly simple: if one event influences another, then the random noise in the causing event will be reflected in the affected event."
posted by kliuless on Jan 12, 2015 - 25 comments

What is your interest: Politics, NFL, Soccer, Scrabble, Weather

Five Thirty Eight reports on its 33 Weirdest Charts for 2014
posted by rmhsinc on Jan 4, 2015 - 18 comments

Follow the trend lines, not the headlines.

How can we get a less hyperbolic assessment of the state of the world? Certainly not from daily journalism. News is about things that happen, not things that don’t happen. We never see a reporter saying to the camera, “Here we are, live from a country where a war has not broken out”—or a city that has not been bombed, or a school that has not been shot up. As long as violence has not vanished from the world, there will always be enough incidents to fill the evening news. And since the human mind estimates probability by the ease with which it can recall examples, newsreaders will always perceive that they live in dangerous times.
posted by ellieBOA on Jan 2, 2015 - 36 comments

((n - (r - 1)) ÷ n) × w

Best Ever Albums aggregates 17,000 "greatest album" charts to establish a statistical consensus on popular music rankings. [more inside]
posted by Iridic on Dec 17, 2014 - 73 comments

Rarer than hitting for the cycle...

Here's a list of baseball players who have stolen second, third and home in the same inning. [more inside]
posted by artsandsci on Dec 4, 2014 - 30 comments

How likely is it that birth control could let you down?

The NYT calculates the probability of pregnancy using 15 common birth control methods, for up to 10 years of both "typical" and "perfect" use. Protip: the graphs do slidey comparison things on mouseover!
posted by Ragini on Nov 26, 2014 - 55 comments

British Breakdown

People that like Slugs are mostly males, aged 25-39, live in Northern Scotland, are far right politically and work in mining and quarrying. Favourite dishes are Spinach Risotto followed by Fidget Pie. They like bird watching and cycling. They describe themselves as alternative but on occasion silly. They are online for 36-40 hours per week and read the Guardian and New Scientist.
Whereas people that like Jellyfish are likely to be female, aged 25-39, live in the north east, are far left politically and work in research and development. Their favourite dish is Vegetarian Sausage Roll followed by Hunter's Stew. They like looking after their pets and archery. They describe themselves as idiosyncratic and on occasion withdrawn. They are online for 50+ hours per week and read the Guardian and New Scientist. [more inside]
posted by unliteral on Nov 17, 2014 - 63 comments

The observer at the end of time: Of immortal watchers and imaginary data

In a Multiverse, What Are the Odds? "Testing the multiverse hypothesis requires measuring whether our universe is statistically typical among the infinite variety of universes. But infinity does a number on statistics." (previously) [more inside]
posted by kliuless on Nov 9, 2014 - 47 comments

Top of the Heap

How many rats are there in New York? A new study reports the number may not be the previously estimated twice as many rats as people . Where did the wildly inflated numbers come from? Snopes has the scoop. Don't worry, you can still enjoy the Interactive NYC Rat Map.
posted by bq on Nov 4, 2014 - 13 comments

√2N

At the Far Ends of a New Universal Law
The law appeared in full form two decades later, when the mathematicians Craig Tracy and Harold Widom proved that the critical point in the kind of model May used was the peak of a statistical distribution. Then, in 1999, Jinho Baik, Percy Deift and Kurt Johansson discovered that the same statistical distribution also describes variations in sequences of shuffled integers — a completely unrelated mathematical abstraction. Soon the distribution appeared in models of the wriggling perimeter of a bacterial colony and other kinds of random growth. Before long, it was showing up all over physics and mathematics. “The big question was why,” said Satya Majumdar, a statistical physicist at the University of Paris-Sud. “Why does it pop up everywhere?”

posted by the man of twists and turns on Oct 28, 2014 - 17 comments

Chicken or egg? There was no moment when a dinosaur became a bird.

A team of researchers, including University of Edinburgh paleontologist Stephen Brusatte and Swarthmore College Associate Professor of Statistics Steve C. Wang, cataloging 853 skeletal characteristics in 150 dinosaurs and analyzing the rate at which these characters change, and they found that "there was no grand jump between nonbirds and birds in morphospace." In other words, birds didn't suddenly come into existence, but evolved, bit by bit, or characteristic by characteristic. But when birds were finally a thing, they went crazy. "Once it came together fully, it unlocked great evolutionary potential that allowed birds to evolve at a super-charged rate."
posted by filthy light thief on Sep 29, 2014 - 37 comments

Calculus without limits

Hyperreal numbers: infinities and infinitesimals - "In 1976, Jerome Keisler, a student of the famous logician Tarski, published this elementary textbook that teaches calculus using hyperreal numbers. Now it's free, with a Creative Commons copyright!" (pdf—25mb :) [more inside]
posted by kliuless on Sep 17, 2014 - 34 comments

It presumably refers to either a kind of sofa or a kind of birth control

The Upshot asked: Where are the hardest places to live in the U.S.? (A bit more on the ranking.) Now, given continuing economic divergence (previously): What do the two Americas search for?
posted by psoas on Aug 19, 2014 - 42 comments

An excellent programming language for data analysis

"Julia is a high-level, high-performance dynamic programming language for technical computing." The language is elegant (homoiconic, multiple-dispatch, consistent and extensible type system), but with easy-to-learn syntax. The standard library includes a wide array of fast and useful functions, and the number of useful packages is growing. [more inside]
posted by vogon_poet on Jul 20, 2014 - 34 comments

Quality of life around the developed world

The OECD has for a long time offered up measures of human wellbeing across a range of indices. Now they've taken the resolution a step further, providing measures of well being at a regional level for 300 regions/provinces/states across the developed world. How does your neck of the woods fare? What other part of the world is comparable to where you live? Allow your location and see.
posted by wilful on Jun 25, 2014 - 44 comments

He eats spiders so that you don't have to.

"'average person eats 3 spiders a year' factoid actualy just statistical error. average person eats 0 spiders per year. Spiders Georg, who lives in cave & eats over 10,000 each day, is an outlier adn should not have been counted". Spiders Georg provides statistical explanation for one of the most commonly mis-represented scientific 'facts' promulgated for years. Although the math may be a little off and Georg may in fact be consuming many more spiders. You can read more from the man himself if you want to know more about the spider eating life.
posted by codacorolla on May 27, 2014 - 48 comments

Meatfilter

Meat Atlas: facts and figures about the animals we eat
posted by Gyan on May 14, 2014 - 29 comments

Happy trees? Not all 381 times.

When it's time for some mellow craftiness it's time for Bob Ross. But what if you want to know how many times his paintings included palm trees? Cumulus clouds? What if it's time to apply some good ol' fashioned conditional probability to his oeuvre? Then this is the place to go.
posted by mr. digits on Apr 16, 2014 - 19 comments

Health Risks How-to

How to think of the risks of Autism. "As a statistically minded neuroscientist, I suggest a different approach that relies on a concept we are familiar with: relative odds. As a single common measuring stick to compare odds, I have chosen the “risk ratio,” a measure that allows the bigger picture to come into focus." A succint NYT op-ed that is also a good primer on assessing health risks in general as well as the impact of media coverage on skewing risk perception.
posted by storybored on Mar 30, 2014 - 20 comments

Data journalism

Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight re-launched this morning. Opening manifesto. Building an NCAA bracket. An article about a computer program to count how many lines each pair of characters in “Romeo and Juliet” spoke to each other. Toilet seat covers. 2014 midterms. And why this winter is so miserable. Among other gems.
posted by roomthreeseventeen on Mar 17, 2014 - 79 comments

Baltimore-Smalltimore

Earlier this year Tracy Halvorsen wrote an article called Baltimore City, You're Breaking my Heart. It was received with...uh, mixed results. Now Andy, from the blog B'more Connected has looked at the article from the point of view of statistics. "I think nearly everybody can agree with the basic premise suggested by Halvorsen’s article. I will paraphrase that premise as: It is tragic and frustrating when our neighbors, friends, or coworkers are the victims of violent crimes. Violent crime is too frequent in Baltimore. Something needs to be done to decrease that crime. Beyond that, I think we see Baltimore differently."
posted by josher71 on Mar 4, 2014 - 59 comments

John Baez on the maths of connecting everyone (and everything) on earth

Network Theory Overview - "The idea: nature and the world of human technology are full of networks! People like to draw diagrams of networks. Mathematical physicists know that in principle these diagrams can be understood using category theory. But why should physicists have all the fun? This is the century of understanding living systems and adapting to life on a finite planet. Math isn't the main thing we need, but it's got to be part of the solution... so one thing we should do is develop a unified and powerful theory of networks." (via ;)
posted by kliuless on Mar 2, 2014 - 17 comments

Is Home Birth In the US Safe?

Statistics professor challenges midwives' math on home birth safety. This article includes links to multiple original sources so be sure to read (or scroll) to the end.
posted by the young rope-rider on Feb 27, 2014 - 277 comments

Grateful Dead vs. Phish and Other Distinctions

Music Machinery presents a map of each U.S. state's most distinct favorite band or recording artist, as well as an app for playing with the data.
posted by Navelgazer on Feb 26, 2014 - 75 comments

The dangers of A/B testing

A/B testing has become a familiar term for most people running web sites, especially e-commerce sites. Unfortunately, most A/B test results are illusory (PDF, 312 kB). Here's how not to run an A/B test. Do use this sample size calculator or this weird trick.
posted by Foci for Analysis on Feb 23, 2014 - 38 comments

P-hacking

P values, the 'gold standard' of statistical validity, are not as reliable as many scientists assume.
posted by dhruva on Feb 14, 2014 - 103 comments

For unto us a child is born

According to statistician Aki Vehtari of Aalto University in Finland, there is diminished 20% chance that today, December 25th, is your birthday. There is a 5% higher likelihood than chance that your birthday is actually February 14th. [more inside]
posted by roomthreeseventeen on Dec 25, 2013 - 27 comments

That's when you started graphing everything.

The 15 Best Behavioural Science Graphs of 2010-13. [more inside]
posted by aka burlap on Dec 21, 2013 - 4 comments

An itinerant scholar for Bayes’ rule

Dennis Lindley, one of the most influential of 20th century statisticians, passed away on December 14 at age 90. Lindley was a strong advocate for Bayesian statistics before it was widely popular. What is Bayesian statistics and why was Dennis Lindley important? [more inside]
posted by Philosopher Dirtbike on Dec 20, 2013 - 13 comments

The Pareto of our Discontent

College football attracts a lot of rabid fans. Of late, college football (and football in general) has also attracted an increasing number of stats enthusiasts peddling increasingly obscure metrics to quantify success and failure. At MGoBlog, a popular Michigan fan blog, one intrepid poster has turned the statistics tools on the fanbase itself. A Season in Profanity details the usage of various swear words in open game threads. Among the relationships detailed are the usage of various colorful expressions by game, mood of the fan base by opponent, swearing efficiency, which coach(es) should be fired, and even the individual play outcomes that inspired the greatest amount of swearing. As it was kind of a rough season for the team, there was a substantial amount of data to comb through. [more inside]
posted by Existential Dread on Dec 17, 2013 - 13 comments

Cooperstown number crunching

Kenny Shirley and Carlos Scheidegger of AT&T Labs have put together a fascinating tool to analyze voting patterns for the baseball Hall of Fame. This Deadspin post will help walk you through it. [more inside]
posted by Chrysostom on Dec 11, 2013 - 20 comments

Monday Morning Robocoach

Watching one of the exciting snow-bound football games yesterday, the thought may have occurred to you: If I was a coach, would I go for it on this 4th down? This bot from the New York Times will tell you, and maybe even add a little attitude to the answer, which is usually much more aggressive than NFL coaches.
posted by Potomac Avenue on Dec 9, 2013 - 74 comments

Math with Bad Drawings

Headlines from a Mathematically Literate World [more inside]
posted by Blasdelb on Dec 4, 2013 - 32 comments

Courtesy of the University of Oklahoma Institute for Quality Communities

The U.S. Cities Where the Fewest Commuters Get to Work By Car
posted by Blazecock Pileon on Nov 28, 2013 - 41 comments

Extreme Measures May Mislead

How to think about "Science Studies Prove My Position", for politicians and all non-scientists. Any collation of measures (the effectiveness of a given school, say) will show variability owing to differences in innate ability (teacher competence), plus sampling (children might by chance be an atypical sample with complications), plus bias (the school might be in an area where people are unusually unhealthy), plus measurement error (outcomes might be measured in different ways for different schools). However, the resulting variation is typically interpreted only as differences in innate ability, ignoring the other sources. This becomes problematic with statements describing an extreme outcome ('the pass rate doubled') or comparing the magnitude of the extreme with the mean ('the pass rate in school x is three times the national average') or the range ('there is an x-fold difference between the highest- and lowest-performing schools'). League tables, in particular, are rarely reliable summaries of performance.
posted by Dashy on Nov 25, 2013 - 28 comments

Card tricks...

...to leave a smile on your face, by Helder Guimarães: Individual vs Crowd | Chaos | Freedom | Trick [more inside]
posted by Blazecock Pileon on Nov 8, 2013 - 12 comments

Statistics Done Wrong: a free guide for scientists

Statistics Done Wrong is a guide to the most popular statistical errors and slip-ups committed by scientists every day, in the lab and in peer-reviewed journals. Statistics Done Wrong assumes no prior knowledge of statistics, so you can read it before your first statistics course or after thirty years of scientific practice.
posted by Foci for Analysis on Oct 27, 2013 - 39 comments

"Statlas also makes it easy to spot the littler plays"

Statlas, a way to visualize baseball. [more inside]
posted by the man of twists and turns on Oct 24, 2013 - 4 comments

1985-86: The Genesis Of Truculence

This is one example of a phenomenon I noticed throughout this chart: natural rival franchises tend to have similar numbers of goon seasons. This would suggest that goon employment may be (in some instances) localized arms races between rivals, whose cyclical number of goons tends to reflect the other’s in some perverted game of Mutually Assured Terrible Hockey (MATH)... We also have a team like Detroit near the bottom of the list, with only 8.5 goon seasons in their history. Since 1985-86, the Wings have only had 4.5 goon seasons. They’ve only had 2 goon seasons since 1988-89. Coincidentally, they’ve been pretty damned swell at winning hockey games since that time. The Evolution of Goon Culture in the NHL
posted by mannequito on Sep 28, 2013 - 23 comments

Weather is fine in Fargo

"On September 19th, the Census Bureau released the American Community Survey (ACS) estimates of poverty and income. Based on a much larger survey sample than the older Current Population Survey, the ACS affords a closer look at state, regional, and local income patterns (like health and education spending). It is not a pretty picture." --Neat Data visualizations of the survey info from Dissent Magazine.
posted by Potomac Avenue on Sep 27, 2013 - 8 comments

WORST. STATE. EVER.

What is your state worst at?
posted by blue_beetle on Sep 23, 2013 - 88 comments

Happy 114, Mr Hitchcock!

The Hitchcock Infographic
posted by crossoverman on Aug 13, 2013 - 18 comments

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