"Pangloss deceived me cruelly when he said that all is for the best in the world."
October 10, 2011 2:36 AM Subscribe
One reason optimists retain a positive outlook even in the face of evidence to the contrary has been discovered, say researchers.
Optimism bias is as well-known to neuroscience as it is to philosophy. Recent science suggests the brain is very good at processing good news about the future and that it: "is becoming increasingly apparent in neuroscience, that a major part of brain function in decision-making is the testing of predictions against reality - in essence all people are 'scientists'. And despite how sophisticated these neural networks are, it is illuminating to see how the brain sometimes comes up with wrong and overly optimistic answers despite the evidence."
As Candide concluded, looking on the bright side may not be such a bright idea.
Optimism bias is as well-known to neuroscience as it is to philosophy. Recent science suggests the brain is very good at processing good news about the future and that it: "is becoming increasingly apparent in neuroscience, that a major part of brain function in decision-making is the testing of predictions against reality - in essence all people are 'scientists'. And despite how sophisticated these neural networks are, it is illuminating to see how the brain sometimes comes up with wrong and overly optimistic answers despite the evidence."
As Candide concluded, looking on the bright side may not be such a bright idea.
The first link suggests that optimism could have important health benefits. The last link suggests that optimism could be dangerous. So I'm pessimistic about optimism, but optimistic about pessimism.
posted by twoleftfeet at 2:55 AM on October 10, 2011 [17 favorites]
posted by twoleftfeet at 2:55 AM on October 10, 2011 [17 favorites]
In Psychology 100 I was taught that the brain gave illogical weighting to overly spectacular answers, not necessarily optimistic.
Am I gonna win the lottery tonight. YES I AM!
Is this plane that I'm boarding going to crash YES IT IS!
posted by uncanny hengeman at 2:55 AM on October 10, 2011 [18 favorites]
Am I gonna win the lottery tonight. YES I AM!
Is this plane that I'm boarding going to crash YES IT IS!
posted by uncanny hengeman at 2:55 AM on October 10, 2011 [18 favorites]
I wonder what the results would be if we tested the predictions people give against their actions - I don't expect to die before my children reach adulthood (and I have data to support me), but I have life insurance.
posted by hat_eater at 2:58 AM on October 10, 2011 [1 favorite]
posted by hat_eater at 2:58 AM on October 10, 2011 [1 favorite]
I see the glass as half-full until the exact moment when it becomes half-empty. Then I order another glass.
posted by twoleftfeet at 3:04 AM on October 10, 2011
posted by twoleftfeet at 3:04 AM on October 10, 2011
If my glass is half-full, it's a good reason to drink more!
*stumbles
posted by mannequito at 3:05 AM on October 10, 2011
*stumbles
posted by mannequito at 3:05 AM on October 10, 2011
There are at least two kinds of optimists. One of them thinks the future will turn out great. The other thinks that, no matter how the future turns out, they'll probably be happy. The former can be delusional but the latter needn't be.
posted by DU at 3:05 AM on October 10, 2011 [52 favorites]
posted by DU at 3:05 AM on October 10, 2011 [52 favorites]
The optimist sees the glass half-full. The optometrist sees the glass 20-20.
posted by twoleftfeet at 3:18 AM on October 10, 2011 [8 favorites]
posted by twoleftfeet at 3:18 AM on October 10, 2011 [8 favorites]
Optimists are naturally delusional. Pessimists prefer substance abuse.
posted by Skeptic at 3:19 AM on October 10, 2011 [8 favorites]
posted by Skeptic at 3:19 AM on October 10, 2011 [8 favorites]
In the end we all end up dead. Optimism, pessimism, or realism?
posted by mfoight at 3:20 AM on October 10, 2011 [2 favorites]
posted by mfoight at 3:20 AM on October 10, 2011 [2 favorites]
Not if you're only playing dead. Possumism.
posted by Eideteker at 3:25 AM on October 10, 2011 [47 favorites]
posted by Eideteker at 3:25 AM on October 10, 2011 [47 favorites]
Dr Sharot said: "The divorce rate is 50%, but people don't think it's the same for them. There is a very fundamental bias in the brain."
Of course people aren't rational, but to say that the divorce probability is 50% for everyone is wrong. If everyone believed that their divorce probability was 50%, they'd (still) be wrong. Divorce probability, averaged over relevant predictors of divorce, is 50%. For that to be true doesn't even require that anyone's divorce rate is 50%. Any particular person's divorce probability will depend on their individual circumstances.
To belabour the point, imagine two types of couples, one whose divorce probability is 25%, and another whose divorce probability is 75%. If half of couples are of the first type and half of couples are of the second type, then the marginal divorce rate will be 50%, even though no couple's divorce rate is 50%.
posted by Philosopher Dirtbike at 3:34 AM on October 10, 2011 [9 favorites]
Of course people aren't rational, but to say that the divorce probability is 50% for everyone is wrong. If everyone believed that their divorce probability was 50%, they'd (still) be wrong. Divorce probability, averaged over relevant predictors of divorce, is 50%. For that to be true doesn't even require that anyone's divorce rate is 50%. Any particular person's divorce probability will depend on their individual circumstances.
To belabour the point, imagine two types of couples, one whose divorce probability is 25%, and another whose divorce probability is 75%. If half of couples are of the first type and half of couples are of the second type, then the marginal divorce rate will be 50%, even though no couple's divorce rate is 50%.
posted by Philosopher Dirtbike at 3:34 AM on October 10, 2011 [9 favorites]
The divorce rate is 50%,
Great! That means that the marriage success rate is 50%. Incurable optimist.
posted by twoleftfeet at 3:38 AM on October 10, 2011 [3 favorites]
Great! That means that the marriage success rate is 50%. Incurable optimist.
posted by twoleftfeet at 3:38 AM on October 10, 2011 [3 favorites]
"One reason optimists ..."
Ooh, I hope it's something good!
(clicks link)
Oh. Crap. Self-delusion again? Surely one of these days ...
posted by aeschenkarnos at 3:39 AM on October 10, 2011 [5 favorites]
Ooh, I hope it's something good!
(clicks link)
Oh. Crap. Self-delusion again? Surely one of these days ...
posted by aeschenkarnos at 3:39 AM on October 10, 2011 [5 favorites]
The will end well. No, really! I'm sure it will.
posted by pracowity at 3:40 AM on October 10, 2011 [5 favorites]
posted by pracowity at 3:40 AM on October 10, 2011 [5 favorites]
Optimism is a necessary precondition to disappointment.
Isn't this like the NLP thing about the mind not getting negation rather than negativity - if I say there's no dog on the table, the mind wonders what kind of dog isn't there. Although functionally the same as saying there's nothing on the table, it's not perceived as such. It doesn't have to be about not accepting bad things - if I say I'm not hideously mutilated, the spectre of hideous mutilation is nonetheless injected into the discourse.
Incidentally, the universe itself isn't rational. Rationality is a kind of story we tell about the universe, in the same way that optimism and pessimism are.
posted by Grangousier at 3:45 AM on October 10, 2011 [3 favorites]
Isn't this like the NLP thing about the mind not getting negation rather than negativity - if I say there's no dog on the table, the mind wonders what kind of dog isn't there. Although functionally the same as saying there's nothing on the table, it's not perceived as such. It doesn't have to be about not accepting bad things - if I say I'm not hideously mutilated, the spectre of hideous mutilation is nonetheless injected into the discourse.
Incidentally, the universe itself isn't rational. Rationality is a kind of story we tell about the universe, in the same way that optimism and pessimism are.
posted by Grangousier at 3:45 AM on October 10, 2011 [3 favorites]
This really is the best of all possible worlds. Deal with it.
posted by twoleftfeet at 3:59 AM on October 10, 2011 [2 favorites]
posted by twoleftfeet at 3:59 AM on October 10, 2011 [2 favorites]
Oooh...oooh...ooooh...Mr. Kotter...Mr. Kotter...I know...I know..pick me...pick me:
Always Look on the Bright Side of Life
/Pythonfilter
posted by Skygazer at 4:26 AM on October 10, 2011 [3 favorites]
Always Look on the Bright Side of Life
/Pythonfilter
posted by Skygazer at 4:26 AM on October 10, 2011 [3 favorites]
I'm an "optipest" - not an optimist, not a pessimist ... I'm a stalker.
posted by the quidnunc kid at 4:41 AM on October 10, 2011
posted by the quidnunc kid at 4:41 AM on October 10, 2011
Doesn't whether the optimist finds the glass half full and the pessimist find it half empty depend on what is in the glass? I mean, the optimist might very well say "That's only half a glass of [your favorite disgusting substance here]," while the pessimist would declare "I have to deal with half a glass of [your favorite disgusting substance here]!"
More seriously, it also seems that cancer and divorce rates are kind of bad for this sort of thing -- because, while the national rate (maybe corrected for some of your specific factors) might be x%, your personal chance could be significantly different. Like the national divorce rate is 50%, but your social, economic, religious, educational factors put you at, say 35% -- however, you know your spouse has a gambling problem and, if they fall off that wagon, you are going to divorce them (because, I don't know, one of your parents had a serious gambling problem, and you aren't going down that road). Now,as an optimist, you may very well believe that your spouse has the strength of character to do that (disregarding evidence to the contrary or inflating evidence in support), but that's not the same as thinking your marriage chances are different, is it? Your marriage chance is 100% until it isn't....
posted by GenjiandProust at 4:48 AM on October 10, 2011 [2 favorites]
More seriously, it also seems that cancer and divorce rates are kind of bad for this sort of thing -- because, while the national rate (maybe corrected for some of your specific factors) might be x%, your personal chance could be significantly different. Like the national divorce rate is 50%, but your social, economic, religious, educational factors put you at, say 35% -- however, you know your spouse has a gambling problem and, if they fall off that wagon, you are going to divorce them (because, I don't know, one of your parents had a serious gambling problem, and you aren't going down that road). Now,as an optimist, you may very well believe that your spouse has the strength of character to do that (disregarding evidence to the contrary or inflating evidence in support), but that's not the same as thinking your marriage chances are different, is it? Your marriage chance is 100% until it isn't....
posted by GenjiandProust at 4:48 AM on October 10, 2011 [2 favorites]
Experimental economists have demonstrated quite well that people are measurably risk averse. Evolution tends to be pretty ad hoc -- if selection couldn't chip away at risk aversion in the rational process, it could mitigate it in fair measure with a tendency to emotional optimism.
posted by MattD at 4:51 AM on October 10, 2011 [3 favorites]
posted by MattD at 4:51 AM on October 10, 2011 [3 favorites]
You don't have to embrace Leibnitz' "best of all possible worlds" to be an optimist - that is just taking optimism to its extreme. You can be optimistic about the world you live in, about the fact that your life will take the best possible course regardless of how the rest of the world fares, about the fact that one (or many or all) individual, discreet event will have a positive outcome, your optimism can prompt you to think that whatever the outcome of any situation, you will be able to adapt to it, that it will turn out to be a hidden blessing (see, for instance, Steve Jobs Stamford speech re. his departure and then return to Apple), you will pull through anything, other people will be able to pull through anything, our planet will pull through anything we throw at it etc. etc. etc.
And I'd argue that everybody reading this - or anything - and everybody writing in this thread, any thread, or anywhere, or anybody who is doing anything whatsoever is an optimist at least in the sense that they are not overwhelmed and paralysied by the futility of it all. The ultimate pessimist would just stretch out on the floor wherever they are and wait to die.
posted by miorita at 4:52 AM on October 10, 2011
And I'd argue that everybody reading this - or anything - and everybody writing in this thread, any thread, or anywhere, or anybody who is doing anything whatsoever is an optimist at least in the sense that they are not overwhelmed and paralysied by the futility of it all. The ultimate pessimist would just stretch out on the floor wherever they are and wait to die.
posted by miorita at 4:52 AM on October 10, 2011
“I came to the conclusion that the optimist thought everything good except the pessimist, and that the pessimist thought everything bad, except himself.”
– G.K. Chesterton, Orthodoxy, chapter 5
posted by crocomancer at 4:52 AM on October 10, 2011 [5 favorites]
– G.K. Chesterton, Orthodoxy, chapter 5
posted by crocomancer at 4:52 AM on October 10, 2011 [5 favorites]
One of my favorite rules of thumb is that most things that appear to be statements of fact or representations also have a big component of actual alteration of oneself and the world. For whatever reason philosophy seems to have a built-in bias in favor of representation — why did we have to wait until Austin and Wittgenstein in the 1950s to start seeing language as performative? So I think it could be useful to think of beliefs and predictions as similar to prayers. By expecting something of my future, I alter my destiny — outlook-wise and psychosomatically. This "interesting comment" is turning out like a pseudointellectual The Secret...
posted by mbrock at 4:54 AM on October 10, 2011 [1 favorite]
posted by mbrock at 4:54 AM on October 10, 2011 [1 favorite]
I'm a paranoid optimist: I think they're after me, but won't get me.
posted by signal at 4:54 AM on October 10, 2011 [10 favorites]
posted by signal at 4:54 AM on October 10, 2011 [10 favorites]
With all this horse shit, there's bound to be a pony around here somewhere.
posted by Obscure Reference at 5:11 AM on October 10, 2011 [5 favorites]
posted by Obscure Reference at 5:11 AM on October 10, 2011 [5 favorites]
Miorita: The ultimate pessimist would just stretch out on the floor wherever they are and wait to die.
I've tried this many times. It doesn't work. But it does wonders for re-aligning your back.
posted by Skygazer at 5:14 AM on October 10, 2011 [6 favorites]
I've tried this many times. It doesn't work. But it does wonders for re-aligning your back.
posted by Skygazer at 5:14 AM on October 10, 2011 [6 favorites]
I believe in the power of positive negativity. I wish for the best but expect the worst, and therefore I"m rarely disappointed.
posted by localroger at 5:17 AM on October 10, 2011 [4 favorites]
posted by localroger at 5:17 AM on October 10, 2011 [4 favorites]
Am I gonna win the lottery tonight. YES I AM!Am I gonna crash while driving tired/drunk/aggressively? OF COURSE NOT!
Is this plane that I'm boarding going to crash YES IT IS!
Hmm... I can't actually think of an example of the fourth case: people commonly underestimating the frequency of a low-probability positive outcome. Can anyone else? I was going to try to make the case that some "biases" may just be unbiased calculation error, with relative errors naturally magnified for low-probability events... but if there really is a "missing quadrant" in the under/overestimation, good/bad outcome combinations, then that's not exactly unbiased, even if it's not a simple bias to explain.
posted by roystgnr at 5:25 AM on October 10, 2011 [1 favorite]
I once tried to start a pessimists club, but nobody thought it would amount to anything...
posted by samsara at 5:45 AM on October 10, 2011
posted by samsara at 5:45 AM on October 10, 2011
just take care of your shit.
posted by Horselover Phattie at 1:51 PM on October 10
Scatological positivism.
posted by Decani at 6:33 AM on October 10, 2011 [2 favorites]
posted by Horselover Phattie at 1:51 PM on October 10
Scatological positivism.
posted by Decani at 6:33 AM on October 10, 2011 [2 favorites]
I like optimists. They go through life assuming that no one wants to punch them in their lousy optimist faces, and yet they aren't surprised when it happens.
I think I need coffee.
posted by emelenjr at 6:40 AM on October 10, 2011 [2 favorites]
I think I need coffee.
posted by emelenjr at 6:40 AM on October 10, 2011 [2 favorites]
I always think of the glass as half-empty, but I also assume the beverage is poisoned, so that makes me an optimist.
posted by straight at 6:43 AM on October 10, 2011
posted by straight at 6:43 AM on October 10, 2011
All of this is very well, but let us cultivate our garden.
posted by blucevalo at 6:47 AM on October 10, 2011 [2 favorites]
posted by blucevalo at 6:47 AM on October 10, 2011 [2 favorites]
I can't actually think of an example of the fourth case: people commonly underestimating the frequency of a low-probability positive outcome. Can anyone else?
Nearly everyone's life includes unexpectedly good events which, in retrospect, turn out to have been pivotal and transformative. But I don't known that anyone would have recognized them in advance, or even at the time, as spectacular.
But I do think one form of optimism consists of putting yourself, actively, in a position to harvest such events. That is, Paul McCartney wouldn't have impressed John Lennon if he hadn't learned how to play the guitar and so on. The cosmic-fate side has to work itself out.
But optimism is more a set of actions than a state of mind, I think.
posted by argybarg at 6:53 AM on October 10, 2011 [1 favorite]
Nearly everyone's life includes unexpectedly good events which, in retrospect, turn out to have been pivotal and transformative. But I don't known that anyone would have recognized them in advance, or even at the time, as spectacular.
But I do think one form of optimism consists of putting yourself, actively, in a position to harvest such events. That is, Paul McCartney wouldn't have impressed John Lennon if he hadn't learned how to play the guitar and so on. The cosmic-fate side has to work itself out.
But optimism is more a set of actions than a state of mind, I think.
posted by argybarg at 6:53 AM on October 10, 2011 [1 favorite]
I've always said it's better to be a pessimist. If you're wrong, things are good. If you're right, you can say "I told you so!".
posted by lalochezia at 6:56 AM on October 10, 2011 [3 favorites]
posted by lalochezia at 6:56 AM on October 10, 2011 [3 favorites]
"What do you take me for, an idiot?"
—General Charles de Gaulle (1890-1970), when a journalist asked him if he was happy
posted by Crabby Appleton at 7:01 AM on October 10, 2011 [4 favorites]
—General Charles de Gaulle (1890-1970), when a journalist asked him if he was happy
posted by Crabby Appleton at 7:01 AM on October 10, 2011 [4 favorites]
Look at you, looking forward to the assumed pleasure of saying "I told you so!" just wait til you find out what a letdown it is.
posted by argybarg at 7:02 AM on October 10, 2011 [4 favorites]
posted by argybarg at 7:02 AM on October 10, 2011 [4 favorites]
Hmm... I can't actually think of an example of the fourth case: people commonly underestimating the frequency of a low-probability positive outcome.
There are a lot of people who feel they have "good parking karma." They assert that they can always find a parking spot when they need one. The alternative to this is a friend of mine who believes that there will always be a train leaving the station as she arrives at the T platform.
posted by GenjiandProust at 7:03 AM on October 10, 2011 [1 favorite]
There are a lot of people who feel they have "good parking karma." They assert that they can always find a parking spot when they need one. The alternative to this is a friend of mine who believes that there will always be a train leaving the station as she arrives at the T platform.
posted by GenjiandProust at 7:03 AM on October 10, 2011 [1 favorite]
Optimism is a highly irrational but nonetheless adaptive strategy, in that it allows you to keep trying regardless of barriers to success, which raises your chances of success from zero (if you don't try) to marginally more than zero. Over time this may work in your favor.
Personally, I think of optimism as a sort of perpetual procrastination; I know that depression/despair may actually be the logical attitude to take, but I'll wait to do that until things really are at the absolute worst. When the zombies attack, there'll be plenty of time for existential angst or adrenalin-fueled terror.
posted by emjaybee at 7:15 AM on October 10, 2011 [6 favorites]
Personally, I think of optimism as a sort of perpetual procrastination; I know that depression/despair may actually be the logical attitude to take, but I'll wait to do that until things really are at the absolute worst. When the zombies attack, there'll be plenty of time for existential angst or adrenalin-fueled terror.
posted by emjaybee at 7:15 AM on October 10, 2011 [6 favorites]
We have a number of studies, now, that show that optimists live longer, are happier, experience less illness, earn more, enjoy better relationships - the goes on - and then, every once in a while, some new study that shows, once again, that pessimists are better at assessing the risks or actual value of everything, evidently, except remaining a pessimist.
posted by zylocomotion at 7:16 AM on October 10, 2011 [15 favorites]
posted by zylocomotion at 7:16 AM on October 10, 2011 [15 favorites]
I just read the article and yet it is already slipping from my mind.
Beautiful day outside!
posted by LarryC at 7:27 AM on October 10, 2011 [1 favorite]
Beautiful day outside!
posted by LarryC at 7:27 AM on October 10, 2011 [1 favorite]
I think some people don't get my specific brand of optimism. I keep saying to them "I hope you die!" but what I am really saying is that I hope you aren't cursed with the burden of immortality, because you'll be lonely when the rest of humanity is snuffed out.
posted by RobotVoodooPower at 7:37 AM on October 10, 2011 [3 favorites]
posted by RobotVoodooPower at 7:37 AM on October 10, 2011 [3 favorites]
Optimism is for survivors.
posted by Liquidwolf at 7:39 AM on October 10, 2011
posted by Liquidwolf at 7:39 AM on October 10, 2011
And assholes, evidently.
posted by Crabby Appleton at 7:46 AM on October 10, 2011
posted by Crabby Appleton at 7:46 AM on October 10, 2011
This reminds me of something a new-agey person once said:
Me: Is the glass half empty or half full?
Her: I don't see it that way. I close my eyes and imagine it overflowing.
Me: ...
In fact, my reaction looked something like this.
posted by Sandor Clegane at 7:46 AM on October 10, 2011 [3 favorites]
Me: Is the glass half empty or half full?
Her: I don't see it that way. I close my eyes and imagine it overflowing.
Me: ...
In fact, my reaction looked something like this.
posted by Sandor Clegane at 7:46 AM on October 10, 2011 [3 favorites]
And then there's something I say which always elicits eye rolls from the more optimistic people I know: I'm not a pessimist, I'm a realist. It's not that I think everything is going to suck - it just does.
posted by Sandor Clegane at 7:48 AM on October 10, 2011
posted by Sandor Clegane at 7:48 AM on October 10, 2011
Maybe the real question is whether the glass is too large or too small for the task...
I am generally a gloomy person, and I definitely like having a plan B (and often C and D), but I do try and keep my eyes open for the positive opportunity. I am well aware that I am usually going to share a bus seat with someone who is surly, crazy, or diseased, but I have made a number of friends talking with people on my regular bus routes, so I try to keep an open mind.
posted by GenjiandProust at 7:53 AM on October 10, 2011
I am generally a gloomy person, and I definitely like having a plan B (and often C and D), but I do try and keep my eyes open for the positive opportunity. I am well aware that I am usually going to share a bus seat with someone who is surly, crazy, or diseased, but I have made a number of friends talking with people on my regular bus routes, so I try to keep an open mind.
posted by GenjiandProust at 7:53 AM on October 10, 2011
I'd guess that optimism can be a self-fulfilling prophecy. People who believe themselves to be lucky are better at spotting and capitalising on opportunities:
emjaybee - I know that depression/despair may actually be the logical attitude to take, but I'll wait to do that until things really are at the absolute worst.
zylocomotion - We have a number of studies, now, that show that optimists live longer, are happier, experience less illness, earn more, enjoy better relationships - the goes on - and then, every once in a while, some new study that shows, once again, that pessimists are better at assessing the risks or actual value of everything, evidently, except remaining a pessimist.
Along these lines, I've become convinced that while depression fucks with my mind in all sorts of interesting ways, it also tends to make me much more rational and, among other things, dramatically improves my ability to accurately evaluate risks/rewards. There's a stage of it that's actually useful, freeing me from undue optimism and other stupid-monkey-brain mistakes and making me more able to actually apply my brain to hard problems. Except the one of how to not be depressed, obviously.
But, yeah, improved rationality doesn't necessarily seem to lead to happiness. I think that believing you're right is probably much more important for happiness than actually being right, which seems to be supported by the linked articles.
posted by metaBugs at 7:56 AM on October 10, 2011
My research revealed that lucky people generateFrom The Luck Factor [PDF], by Prof Richard Wiseman.
their own good fortune via four basic principles.
They are skilled at creating and noticing chance opportunities,
make lucky decisions by listening to
their intuition, create self-fulfilling prophesies via
positive expectations, and adopt a resilient attitude
that transforms bad luck into good.
emjaybee - I know that depression/despair may actually be the logical attitude to take, but I'll wait to do that until things really are at the absolute worst.
zylocomotion - We have a number of studies, now, that show that optimists live longer, are happier, experience less illness, earn more, enjoy better relationships - the goes on - and then, every once in a while, some new study that shows, once again, that pessimists are better at assessing the risks or actual value of everything, evidently, except remaining a pessimist.
Along these lines, I've become convinced that while depression fucks with my mind in all sorts of interesting ways, it also tends to make me much more rational and, among other things, dramatically improves my ability to accurately evaluate risks/rewards. There's a stage of it that's actually useful, freeing me from undue optimism and other stupid-monkey-brain mistakes and making me more able to actually apply my brain to hard problems. Except the one of how to not be depressed, obviously.
But, yeah, improved rationality doesn't necessarily seem to lead to happiness. I think that believing you're right is probably much more important for happiness than actually being right, which seems to be supported by the linked articles.
posted by metaBugs at 7:56 AM on October 10, 2011
Genjilandproust, re: parking karma....I don't think I have parking karma per se, but I do pray to Bob, who is my parking god. And I've trained all sorts of people to do it with me, cause it's funny. I will say, as we near our destination; "pray to Bob!" And everyone responds, "praying to Bob!" And because Bob is good, and Bob is slack, Bob always provides for a close spot. Praise Bob, from whom all parking flows.
To the topic at hand: everyone says I'm an optimist, because I really do believe we can fix the world, but I'm realistic enough to realize that it is all sorts of screwed up.
posted by dejah420 at 8:03 AM on October 10, 2011 [6 favorites]
To the topic at hand: everyone says I'm an optimist, because I really do believe we can fix the world, but I'm realistic enough to realize that it is all sorts of screwed up.
posted by dejah420 at 8:03 AM on October 10, 2011 [6 favorites]
Yeah, cause I clearly said that I tied salvation to parking. Sheesh, some people have no sense of humor in the morning.
posted by dejah420 at 8:16 AM on October 10, 2011
posted by dejah420 at 8:16 AM on October 10, 2011
Am I gonna win the lottery tonight. YES I AM!
Is this plane that I'm boarding going to crash YES IT IS!
Oh my God! I won the lottery!
*plane crashes*
posted by jamjam at 8:17 AM on October 10, 2011
Is this plane that I'm boarding going to crash YES IT IS!
Oh my God! I won the lottery!
*plane crashes*
posted by jamjam at 8:17 AM on October 10, 2011
Play poker against amateurs sometime for prime examples of this. The probability of catching the card that makes their straight/flush/whatever is pretty low, but they still chase them.
posted by rocket88 at 8:22 AM on October 10, 2011 [1 favorite]
posted by rocket88 at 8:22 AM on October 10, 2011 [1 favorite]
There are a lot of people who feel they have "good parking karma." They assert that they can always find a parking spot when they need one.
Welcome to experimental error #4. I'm wondering if you can still be an optimist and fully grok the issue of confirmation bias.
posted by eriko at 8:31 AM on October 10, 2011
Welcome to experimental error #4. I'm wondering if you can still be an optimist and fully grok the issue of confirmation bias.
posted by eriko at 8:31 AM on October 10, 2011
Everyone is an optimist or we'd all off ourselves. Why does anyone get up in the morning? Something good might happen.
posted by mrgrimm at 8:40 AM on October 10, 2011 [1 favorite]
posted by mrgrimm at 8:40 AM on October 10, 2011 [1 favorite]
Winners don't quit, and quitters don't win, but those who don't win and don't quit are idiots.
posted by leapfrog at 8:46 AM on October 10, 2011
posted by leapfrog at 8:46 AM on October 10, 2011
Welcome to experimental error #4. I'm wondering if you can still be an optimist and fully grok the issue of confirmation bias.
I think that systematized confirmation bias is at the heart of the optimist/pessimist gap. I mean, what is an optimist but a person who notices the good results, ignores the bad results, and looks forward to more good results? The pessimist does the same thing but notices the bad results.
How pervasive does confirmation bias have to be to be a personality trait? Also, since there are claims that optimists are more successful, etc, is it confirmation bias if it tends to produce better outcomes in the long term?
As a pessimist, if the answer is "yes," I can only say "it figures."
posted by GenjiandProust at 9:14 AM on October 10, 2011
I think that systematized confirmation bias is at the heart of the optimist/pessimist gap. I mean, what is an optimist but a person who notices the good results, ignores the bad results, and looks forward to more good results? The pessimist does the same thing but notices the bad results.
How pervasive does confirmation bias have to be to be a personality trait? Also, since there are claims that optimists are more successful, etc, is it confirmation bias if it tends to produce better outcomes in the long term?
As a pessimist, if the answer is "yes," I can only say "it figures."
posted by GenjiandProust at 9:14 AM on October 10, 2011
Maybe the real question is whether the glass is too large or too small for the task...
That's the old joke: an optimist sees it half full, a pessimist sees it half empty, and an engineer sees it's twice as big as it needs to be.
posted by Celsius1414 at 9:21 AM on October 10, 2011 [4 favorites]
That's the old joke: an optimist sees it half full, a pessimist sees it half empty, and an engineer sees it's twice as big as it needs to be.
posted by Celsius1414 at 9:21 AM on October 10, 2011 [4 favorites]
At least in my own personal life, I don't believe "optimism" and "pessimism" are even concepts that make any sense whatsoever - at least insofar as they are attitudes that govern every single attitude I have about everything. Who thinks in such simplistic ways? I think people hear the terms and then are tempted to ask themselves whether they're optimistics or pessimists, and then decide after the fact instead of acknowledging the complex, often convoluted and contradictory, non-universal ways we think about various aspects of our lives.
I'm somewhat pessimistic about my job search because there haven't been many results, but I'm forcing myself to think optimistically about it because otherwise the negativity is toxic and could show through in interviews. I've been optimistic about losing weight because I've been learning how to cook at home instead of eating out all the time, but I'm currently ambivalent about it because I hit a plateau that's been going on for a month. I'm very pessimistic about the state of our country and the Obama administration, but the Occupy movement has given me a faint glimmer of hope. I'm optimistic about making new music because the synth I just bought is amazing. I'm pessimistic about my dating prospects but I'm working through that and realizing it's part of a larger self-esteem issue I have. etc. etc. I don't think there's a simple way to characterize all of this as "pessimist" or "optimist" behavior, it's just.. a bunch of things going on in a weird, complex brain.
posted by naju at 9:39 AM on October 10, 2011 [7 favorites]
I'm somewhat pessimistic about my job search because there haven't been many results, but I'm forcing myself to think optimistically about it because otherwise the negativity is toxic and could show through in interviews. I've been optimistic about losing weight because I've been learning how to cook at home instead of eating out all the time, but I'm currently ambivalent about it because I hit a plateau that's been going on for a month. I'm very pessimistic about the state of our country and the Obama administration, but the Occupy movement has given me a faint glimmer of hope. I'm optimistic about making new music because the synth I just bought is amazing. I'm pessimistic about my dating prospects but I'm working through that and realizing it's part of a larger self-esteem issue I have. etc. etc. I don't think there's a simple way to characterize all of this as "pessimist" or "optimist" behavior, it's just.. a bunch of things going on in a weird, complex brain.
posted by naju at 9:39 AM on October 10, 2011 [7 favorites]
Metafilter pessimist: all this horse shit.
Metafilter optimist: there's bound to be a pony around here somewhere!
posted by misha at 10:11 AM on October 10, 2011 [2 favorites]
Metafilter optimist: there's bound to be a pony around here somewhere!
posted by misha at 10:11 AM on October 10, 2011 [2 favorites]
My favorite glass half-full, optimist/pessimist analogy:
posted by misha at 10:15 AM on October 10, 2011 [3 favorites]
There are, it has been said, two types of people in the world. There are those who, when presented with a glass that is exactly half full, say: this glass is half full. And then there are those who say: this glass is half empty. The world belongs, however, to those who can look at the glass and say: "What's up with this glass? Excuse me? Excuse me? This is my glass? I don't think so. My glass was full! And it was a bigger glass!"From the appropriately titled book The Truth.
posted by misha at 10:15 AM on October 10, 2011 [3 favorites]
We have a number of studies, now, that show that optimists live longer, are happier, experience less illness, earn more, enjoy better relationships - the goes on - and then, every once in a while, some new study that shows, once again, that pessimists are better at assessing the risks or actual value of everything, evidently, except remaining a pessimist.
Look, man, someone gotta be the one to say "okay, okay, that all sounds great, totally with you, but you know, just for argument's sake, let's say they don't turn tail and run when they get a taste of our steel and it's not all over by teatime. Do we, uh, have a plan for that? Just you know, wondering."
posted by Diablevert at 11:08 AM on October 10, 2011 [2 favorites]
Look, man, someone gotta be the one to say "okay, okay, that all sounds great, totally with you, but you know, just for argument's sake, let's say they don't turn tail and run when they get a taste of our steel and it's not all over by teatime. Do we, uh, have a plan for that? Just you know, wondering."
posted by Diablevert at 11:08 AM on October 10, 2011 [2 favorites]
In a population of ... 14? My prefrontal cortex is refusing to cooperate.
posted by falcon at 12:16 PM on October 10, 2011
posted by falcon at 12:16 PM on October 10, 2011
OPTIMISM, n. The doctrine, or belief, that everything is beautiful, including what is ugly, everything good, especially the bad, and everything right that is wrong. It is held with greatest tenacity by those most accustomed to the mischance of falling into adversity, and is most acceptably expounded with the grin that apes a smile. Being a blind faith, it is inaccessible to the light of disproof — an intellectual disorder, yielding to no treatment but death. It is hereditary, but fortunately not contagious.
OPTIMIST, n. A proponent of the doctrine that black is white.
A pessimist applied to God for relief.
"Ah, you wish me to restore your hope and cheerfulness," said God. "No," replied the petitioner, "I wish you to create something that would justify them."
"The world is all created," said God, "but you have overlooked something — the mortality of the optimist."
PESSIMISM, n. A philosophy forced upon the convictions of the observer by the disheartening prevalence of the optimist with his scarecrow hope and his unsightly smile.
CYNIC, n. A blackguard whose faulty vision sees things as they are, not as they ought to be. Hence the custom among the Scythians of plucking out a cynic's eyes to improve his vision.
-- Ambrose Bierce, The Devil's Dictionary
posted by Errant at 12:37 PM on October 10, 2011 [3 favorites]
OPTIMIST, n. A proponent of the doctrine that black is white.
A pessimist applied to God for relief.
"Ah, you wish me to restore your hope and cheerfulness," said God. "No," replied the petitioner, "I wish you to create something that would justify them."
"The world is all created," said God, "but you have overlooked something — the mortality of the optimist."
PESSIMISM, n. A philosophy forced upon the convictions of the observer by the disheartening prevalence of the optimist with his scarecrow hope and his unsightly smile.
CYNIC, n. A blackguard whose faulty vision sees things as they are, not as they ought to be. Hence the custom among the Scythians of plucking out a cynic's eyes to improve his vision.
-- Ambrose Bierce, The Devil's Dictionary
posted by Errant at 12:37 PM on October 10, 2011 [3 favorites]
In a population of ... 14? My prefrontal cortex is refusing to cooperate.
You can just MeMail him, you know.
posted by vidur at 12:41 PM on October 10, 2011 [1 favorite]
You can just MeMail him, you know.
posted by vidur at 12:41 PM on October 10, 2011 [1 favorite]
Also, since there are claims that optimists are more successful, etc, is it confirmation bias if it tends to produce better outcomes in the long term?
Confirmation bias is just confirmation bias, no matter what kind of outcomes it produces. In which case anyway I don't know that confirmation bias itself is capable of "producing" an outcome, it's what you do with/about the information/fact/belief that you think is being confirmed that does that. If that makes sense.
In a population of ... 14? My prefrontal cortex is refusing to cooperate.
Yeah this is...baffling me. I wish I could read the whole article without having to shell out $32 to find out how they did their stats, but there's no way their power can't be abysmal. Plus this is an optimism study, not an exotic drug test! It can't have been that hard to find volunteers.
posted by clavier at 2:49 PM on October 10, 2011
Confirmation bias is just confirmation bias, no matter what kind of outcomes it produces. In which case anyway I don't know that confirmation bias itself is capable of "producing" an outcome, it's what you do with/about the information/fact/belief that you think is being confirmed that does that. If that makes sense.
In a population of ... 14? My prefrontal cortex is refusing to cooperate.
Yeah this is...baffling me. I wish I could read the whole article without having to shell out $32 to find out how they did their stats, but there's no way their power can't be abysmal. Plus this is an optimism study, not an exotic drug test! It can't have been that hard to find volunteers.
posted by clavier at 2:49 PM on October 10, 2011
This points out exactly what drives me nutty about optimists.
posted by jenfullmoon at 3:08 PM on October 10, 2011
posted by jenfullmoon at 3:08 PM on October 10, 2011
All my realism/pessimism has got me is constant anxiety.
I'm actually getting therapy to teach me to reject constant negative thoughts.
posted by Lovecraft In Brooklyn at 3:53 PM on October 10, 2011 [1 favorite]
I'm actually getting therapy to teach me to reject constant negative thoughts.
posted by Lovecraft In Brooklyn at 3:53 PM on October 10, 2011 [1 favorite]
Optimists are delusional. To be realistic you need to be a pessimist. But it's probably not worth it because it's bound to end badly.
No one is as delusional as a pessimist. They justify their misery with their theory that they are "realists" -- yet they passively sit there and wallow and whine with self-pity while the rest of the world -- the ones who have enough confidence in their own competence and don't waste time and energy to come up with excuses for their inaction to actually get off their duffs and make a positive difference by actually having the courage to do something and face the bad to get beyond the obstacles that hide the good, even if it takes practice and patience, and gratitude.
It is not a question of seeing a glass of half-empty or half-full -- it's the realization that you can go and fill up your glass all by yourself and not curse fate because someone isn't filling up your glass for you.
I wish pessimists would just grow up -- it would do the world a whole lot of good.
posted by Alexandra Kitty at 5:06 PM on October 10, 2011
No one is as delusional as a pessimist. They justify their misery with their theory that they are "realists" -- yet they passively sit there and wallow and whine with self-pity while the rest of the world -- the ones who have enough confidence in their own competence and don't waste time and energy to come up with excuses for their inaction to actually get off their duffs and make a positive difference by actually having the courage to do something and face the bad to get beyond the obstacles that hide the good, even if it takes practice and patience, and gratitude.
It is not a question of seeing a glass of half-empty or half-full -- it's the realization that you can go and fill up your glass all by yourself and not curse fate because someone isn't filling up your glass for you.
I wish pessimists would just grow up -- it would do the world a whole lot of good.
posted by Alexandra Kitty at 5:06 PM on October 10, 2011
No one is as delusional as a pessimist. They justify their misery with their theory that they are "realists" -- yet they passively sit there and wallow and whine with self-pity while the rest of the world -- the ones who have enough confidence in their own competence and don't waste time and energy to come up with excuses for their inaction to actually get off their duffs and make a positive difference by actually having the courage to do something and face the bad to get beyond the obstacles that hide the good, even if it takes practice and patience, and gratitude.
There's no 'positive difference' to make. Anything you do eventually ends in death. Think about dentist trips - no matter how much you stall or meander, it'll end up in the same place. And if you're 'optimistic' than you create more misery and death by creating other mortality-aware beings and perpetuating the cycle of death (life).
posted by Lovecraft In Brooklyn at 5:08 PM on October 10, 2011 [1 favorite]
BTW, I'm the most optimistic I've been in years right now.
posted by Lovecraft In Brooklyn at 5:08 PM on October 10, 2011
posted by Lovecraft In Brooklyn at 5:08 PM on October 10, 2011
Nah pessimists suck because they assume that there's a possible 'good' that things can go. Even when things go 'good' it's actually bad, because that fleeting moment of happiness anchors you to the world. When everything is crap, than you can justify death not being so horrible because it's an end to the pain. When you realize 'hey, life is good. The sun is shining, I'm healthy, people love me, Arkham City is out soon' that only lasts until you remember that all joy is fleeting.
I said it once before but it bears repeating.
posted by Lovecraft In Brooklyn at 5:35 PM on October 10, 2011
I said it once before but it bears repeating.
posted by Lovecraft In Brooklyn at 5:35 PM on October 10, 2011
No, it's the misery of anyone who has the courage to seriously and honestly face the human condition and all its implications. Only God can save us from the despair that entails.
posted by Crabby Appleton at 6:45 PM on October 10, 2011 [1 favorite]
posted by Crabby Appleton at 6:45 PM on October 10, 2011 [1 favorite]
But I'm also a perverse optimist, since I spend the hours before sleep contemplating the end of all things when I need to be happy I can summon up the small things. Videogames, my friends, my family, my music. the world is beautiful and I'm alive. thinking of getting a Stay Positive logo tat. i really can summon up vast reserves of short term optimism, but in the long term i know that everything dies, baby, that's a fact
posted by Lovecraft In Brooklyn at 6:57 PM on October 10, 2011
posted by Lovecraft In Brooklyn at 6:57 PM on October 10, 2011
Everyone is an optimist or we'd all off ourselves. Why does anyone get up in the morning? Something good might happen.
If we were really optimistic we'd off ourselves because we might go to Heaven
posted by Lovecraft In Brooklyn at 7:00 PM on October 10, 2011
If we were really optimistic we'd off ourselves because we might go to Heaven
posted by Lovecraft In Brooklyn at 7:00 PM on October 10, 2011
Optimism and pessimism are different symptoms of the same underlying insanity.
posted by rainy at 7:19 PM on October 10, 2011
posted by rainy at 7:19 PM on October 10, 2011
Optimism and pessimism are different symptoms of the same underlying insanity.
Ease up there, tiger.
posted by uncanny hengeman at 12:57 AM on October 11, 2011
Ease up there, tiger.
posted by uncanny hengeman at 12:57 AM on October 11, 2011
Thanissaro Bhikkhu, discussing whether Buddhism is pessimistic:
A fair number of writers have pointed out the basic confidence inherent in the four noble truths, and yet the rumor of Buddhism's pessimism persists. I wonder why. One possible explanation is that, in coming to Buddhism, we sub-consciously expect it to address issues that have a long history in our own culture. By starting out with suffering as his first truth, the Buddha seems to be offering his position on a question with a long history in the West: is the world basically good or bad?posted by mbrock at 5:40 AM on October 11, 2011 [1 favorite]
According to Genesis, this was the first question that occurred to God after he had finished his creation: had he done a good job? He then looked at the world and saw that it was good. Ever since then, people in the West have sided with or against God on his answer, but in doing so they have affirmed that the question was worth asking to begin with. [...]
I take my entire philosophy from one line spoken by a villain (I think it was Destro, or Cobra Commander) in a GI Joe comic I read as a kid: "Life is an illusion. Only death is real".
posted by Lovecraft In Brooklyn at 3:27 PM on October 11, 2011
posted by Lovecraft In Brooklyn at 3:27 PM on October 11, 2011
Death is an illusion too. We've all been here since the beginning of time, and we'll all be here at the end of it. You can't die for the life of you--how depressing is that?
posted by mrgrimm at 3:33 PM on October 11, 2011
posted by mrgrimm at 3:33 PM on October 11, 2011
« Older Hamburger | 1953 Motorcycle Tour of Europe Newer »
This thread has been archived and is closed to new comments
posted by Decani at 2:53 AM on October 10, 2011 [20 favorites]