"These are good people! Strong people! Part of my family is a Mexican!"
July 10, 2013 7:21 PM Subscribe
The Republican Party is in a bind on immigration; after being saddled last year with a presidential nominee who notoriously suggested "self-deportation" as a solution to the issue and earning a mere 27% of the Latino vote, it was widely expected that the Republicans would find a way to appeal to that important—and growing—voting bloc. They may well yet, but it currently appears that the bill recently passed by the Senate is most likely dead on arrival in the House, to the satisfaction of certain voices on the right.
But compare the rhetoric of 2013 with the remarks made by then-candidates Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush at a forum in 1980 and consider how far the Republican Party has shifted...
Goddamned that video with Reagan and Bush the elder is just amazing.
posted by Pogo_Fuzzybutt at 7:31 PM on July 10, 2013 [6 favorites]
posted by Pogo_Fuzzybutt at 7:31 PM on July 10, 2013 [6 favorites]
It's not complicated. We've seen exactly this behavior before, more than 150 years ago, with the Southern Democrats, when they routinely threatened the destruction of the Union. They can't let brown people become citizens, become people, because they will naturally vote to their own interests, and so the strength of the "job creators" will be diminished.
The Confederate South, the base of the current Republican party, wants something that can never be: a return to the happy, white-dominated, darkies-get-in-line days of yesteryear. They will never have that, and so it drives them mad.
Oh, here's an idea! Could Republicans accept Hispanics, not as real people, mind you, but as 3/5ths of a person? There is precedent for this! And this stain on our great country was committed for exactly this reason: to accommodate the moral midgets that place their tiny claims of power over human decency.
I bet Ted Cruz, Rand Paul and Marco Rubio (as long as Cubans are excepted) would support that. Fuckers.
posted by SPrintF at 7:41 PM on July 10, 2013 [9 favorites]
The Confederate South, the base of the current Republican party, wants something that can never be: a return to the happy, white-dominated, darkies-get-in-line days of yesteryear. They will never have that, and so it drives them mad.
Oh, here's an idea! Could Republicans accept Hispanics, not as real people, mind you, but as 3/5ths of a person? There is precedent for this! And this stain on our great country was committed for exactly this reason: to accommodate the moral midgets that place their tiny claims of power over human decency.
I bet Ted Cruz, Rand Paul and Marco Rubio (as long as Cubans are excepted) would support that. Fuckers.
posted by SPrintF at 7:41 PM on July 10, 2013 [9 favorites]
To his credit, George W. Bush was just as "soft on immigration" as his father, and probably would have signed this bill in a heartbeat. (Jeb's wife is Mexican, and the daughter of a migrant worker at that, which might have something to do with it.)
posted by Sys Rq at 7:44 PM on July 10, 2013 [2 favorites]
posted by Sys Rq at 7:44 PM on July 10, 2013 [2 favorites]
Goddamned that video with Reagan and Bush the elder is just amazing.
Bush is to the left of mainstream Democrats today, while Reagan is afraid that Mexico might go Communist. The past is another country.
posted by gerryblog at 7:45 PM on July 10, 2013 [7 favorites]
Bush is to the left of mainstream Democrats today, while Reagan is afraid that Mexico might go Communist. The past is another country.
posted by gerryblog at 7:45 PM on July 10, 2013 [7 favorites]
I heard a Republican analyst describe his party as "ideological." What he meant by this is that its membership doesn't care about forging alliances in order to effectively govern. Instead their main concern is uncomprimising ideological purity, and the voters will mercilessly purge anyone who steps out of line. Marco Rubio might have just killed his chances at the next presidential nomination because he had the nerve to suggest an immigration policy that isn't actively insane, and he is otherwise an exceedingly radical right-winger. It looks to me like the GOP is content to have enough power to block everything, which makes double sense since it has no workable policy proposals for anything anyway. The only way around this predicament is to split off the people who aren't zealots into a party that might make a deal once in a while. If the GOP consistently fails to obtain a governing majority, or gets a mandate but makes an even bigger horror show of things than they did last time, then who knows. It could happen. Otherwise? I don't think a do-nothing stalemate can just persist forever.
posted by 1adam12 at 7:51 PM on July 10, 2013 [7 favorites]
posted by 1adam12 at 7:51 PM on July 10, 2013 [7 favorites]
My fear is that Republicans will compensate for their lack of appeal among minorities not by appealing to minorities, but through gerrymandering and voter suppression.
These tactics are already explicitly presented as such on right-leaning websites among the faithful (we need to stop amnesty or else we'll be out of power forever). They've given up on trying to reach out to Latinos and instead have gone straight to oppression.
posted by Avenger at 7:56 PM on July 10, 2013 [7 favorites]
These tactics are already explicitly presented as such on right-leaning websites among the faithful (we need to stop amnesty or else we'll be out of power forever). They've given up on trying to reach out to Latinos and instead have gone straight to oppression.
posted by Avenger at 7:56 PM on July 10, 2013 [7 favorites]
I actually just read an article saying there was a growing thought in the Republican party that if they just motivate EVEN MORE white people they won't have to reach out to all those nasty gays and Hispanics and things will be just fine.
posted by Ghostride The Whip at 7:59 PM on July 10, 2013
posted by Ghostride The Whip at 7:59 PM on July 10, 2013
Goddamned that video with Reagan and Bush the elder is just amazing.
Yeah, for sure. But the thing is, both of these men went on to the White House, and neither one of them were able to fix the problem. It's a goddamn shame, too, because GHWB is right on here. Immigrants always enrich our society.
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 8:00 PM on July 10, 2013
Yeah, for sure. But the thing is, both of these men went on to the White House, and neither one of them were able to fix the problem. It's a goddamn shame, too, because GHWB is right on here. Immigrants always enrich our society.
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 8:00 PM on July 10, 2013
But this was before Latinos became supertoxic with laser beam eyes.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 8:01 PM on July 10, 2013 [4 favorites]
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 8:01 PM on July 10, 2013 [4 favorites]
Yeah, for sure. But the thing is, both of these men went on to the White House, and neither one of them were able to fix the problem. It's a goddamn shame, too, because GHWB is right on here. Immigrants always enrich our society
That and his point that (immigrant) kids are entitled to what their neighbors are getting.
Now, the republican solution to immigrant kids in schools is to get rid of the schools entirely.
posted by Pogo_Fuzzybutt at 8:03 PM on July 10, 2013 [3 favorites]
That and his point that (immigrant) kids are entitled to what their neighbors are getting.
Now, the republican solution to immigrant kids in schools is to get rid of the schools entirely.
posted by Pogo_Fuzzybutt at 8:03 PM on July 10, 2013 [3 favorites]
Of course they weren't able to solve the problem. The problem – cheap, legally undocumented agricultural laborers – is saving American corporations labor costs.
posted by deathpanels at 8:03 PM on July 10, 2013 [3 favorites]
posted by deathpanels at 8:03 PM on July 10, 2013 [3 favorites]
The question seems to be whether the GOP's elderly, bigoted base will pass away before the party does. Because once they lose Texas...
posted by mullingitover at 8:08 PM on July 10, 2013 [2 favorites]
posted by mullingitover at 8:08 PM on July 10, 2013 [2 favorites]
I actually just read an article saying there was a growing thought in the Republican party that if they just motivate EVEN MORE white people they won't have to reach out to all those nasty gays and Hispanics and things will be just fine.
In 210 of the 234 Congressional districts with Republican representatives, the Hispanic share of the vote is under 25 percent.
posted by leopard at 8:10 PM on July 10, 2013 [3 favorites]
In 210 of the 234 Congressional districts with Republican representatives, the Hispanic share of the vote is under 25 percent.
posted by leopard at 8:10 PM on July 10, 2013 [3 favorites]
Yeah, I just don't see why the Republicans don't realize that allowing an estimated 11 million unauthorized immigrants to settle here isn't to their own benefit, because after all the 3 million legalized in 1986 when President Reagan signed the Simpson-Mazzoli Act certainly became staunch Republican voters.
Immigrants always enrich our society.
There's a cost to immigration just like everything else.
posted by dragoon at 8:10 PM on July 10, 2013 [1 favorite]
Immigrants always enrich our society.
There's a cost to immigration just like everything else.
posted by dragoon at 8:10 PM on July 10, 2013 [1 favorite]
leopard: "In 210 of the 234 Congressional districts with Republican representatives, the Hispanic share of the vote is under 25 percent."
Sure, but the more important question is, which direction is that number going in? I'm going to take a wild guess that it's not going down.
posted by mullingitover at 8:15 PM on July 10, 2013 [1 favorite]
Sure, but the more important question is, which direction is that number going in? I'm going to take a wild guess that it's not going down.
posted by mullingitover at 8:15 PM on July 10, 2013 [1 favorite]
Gerrymandering, voter suppression, and paring down to white only constituents doesn't get as far as it used to. Not only does the GOP lose minorities, it also loses younger whites who find the party's increasingly racial purging to be repugnant. They're going to get uglier in desperation, and I just don't think the country is going to return to 1950's views on race relations.
The GOP is in a real bind. The best they can do is scare a shrinking cohort enough to come out in record numbers. Of course, this will take even crazier tactics, further marginalizing themselves overall, brazenly playing the race card they worked so hard to pin on Democrats. The question right now is how far they'll dig themselves in that hole before they realize there's no path out.
posted by 2N2222 at 8:15 PM on July 10, 2013 [5 favorites]
The GOP is in a real bind. The best they can do is scare a shrinking cohort enough to come out in record numbers. Of course, this will take even crazier tactics, further marginalizing themselves overall, brazenly playing the race card they worked so hard to pin on Democrats. The question right now is how far they'll dig themselves in that hole before they realize there's no path out.
posted by 2N2222 at 8:15 PM on July 10, 2013 [5 favorites]
There's a cost to immigration just like everything else.
Sure. But we're going to have pay the cost whether we keep the fucked-up non-policy policy we have now or whether we adopt something less mind-bogglingly stupid.
One option is more financially sensible in the long run. The other will cost certain people a degree of political, social, and/or economic hegemony. Wanna bet which we end up with?
posted by rtha at 8:24 PM on July 10, 2013 [1 favorite]
Sure. But we're going to have pay the cost whether we keep the fucked-up non-policy policy we have now or whether we adopt something less mind-bogglingly stupid.
One option is more financially sensible in the long run. The other will cost certain people a degree of political, social, and/or economic hegemony. Wanna bet which we end up with?
posted by rtha at 8:24 PM on July 10, 2013 [1 favorite]
Yeah, I just don't see why the Republicans don't realize that allowing an estimated 11 million unauthorized immigrants to settle here isn't to their own benefit, because after all the 3 million legalized in 1986 when President Reagan signed the Simpson-Mazzoli Act certainly became staunch Republican voters.
The opportunity was there to scoop up Hispanic immigrants. It wasn't all that long ago when conservative pundits were praising Hispanics as "natural conservatives" Rank and file Republicans weren't having it, being composed of resentment filled whites and former conservative Southern Democrats. Their reaction wasn't to welcome immigrants to the fold. It was to drive them away because they weren't English speaking whites.
There's a cost to immigration just like everything else.
It's looking like the cost is almost always overshadowed by the benefits. Beneficial for native born, and beneficial for immigrants. Immigration has been notably successful in the US, a nation of immigrants.
posted by 2N2222 at 8:25 PM on July 10, 2013 [3 favorites]
The opportunity was there to scoop up Hispanic immigrants. It wasn't all that long ago when conservative pundits were praising Hispanics as "natural conservatives" Rank and file Republicans weren't having it, being composed of resentment filled whites and former conservative Southern Democrats. Their reaction wasn't to welcome immigrants to the fold. It was to drive them away because they weren't English speaking whites.
There's a cost to immigration just like everything else.
It's looking like the cost is almost always overshadowed by the benefits. Beneficial for native born, and beneficial for immigrants. Immigration has been notably successful in the US, a nation of immigrants.
posted by 2N2222 at 8:25 PM on July 10, 2013 [3 favorites]
Nate Silver projects Republicans to pick up 4-5 Senate seats in 2014, which would bring them to 49-50 Senators. They will probably keep the House in 2014. Going back to World War II, the US is exactly one election result off from perfectly alternating between 8 years of GOP and Dem Presidents. I know demographics are trending unfavorably, and that young voters tilt Democrat, but given the medium-term election forecast I'm not sure why they would think that they are doomed.
posted by leopard at 8:28 PM on July 10, 2013 [12 favorites]
posted by leopard at 8:28 PM on July 10, 2013 [12 favorites]
Not so fast.
There is a good argument to be made that the Republicans don't care about the Latino vote because they don't have to in order to thoroughly dominate the elections - including presidential - for the next 30 years or more.
Here is the argument, in four parts. You may or may not find it convincing, but the guy is showing his math, and he is has a point... the only question is how far that point goes:
1) The Case of the Missing White Voters, Revisited
2) Does GOP Have to Pass Immigration Reform?
3)The GOP and Hispanics: What the Future Holds
4)Demographics and the GOP, Part IV
and bonus:
Gerrymandering and the Republican House
posted by VikingSword at 8:38 PM on July 10, 2013 [4 favorites]
There is a good argument to be made that the Republicans don't care about the Latino vote because they don't have to in order to thoroughly dominate the elections - including presidential - for the next 30 years or more.
Here is the argument, in four parts. You may or may not find it convincing, but the guy is showing his math, and he is has a point... the only question is how far that point goes:
1) The Case of the Missing White Voters, Revisited
2) Does GOP Have to Pass Immigration Reform?
3)The GOP and Hispanics: What the Future Holds
4)Demographics and the GOP, Part IV
and bonus:
Gerrymandering and the Republican House
posted by VikingSword at 8:38 PM on July 10, 2013 [4 favorites]
Just got back from a Stand With Texas Women rally, and it was great to cheer for good (or partially good) legislators, but the Democrats in Texas also really need to reach out more to communities of color. The politicians were more diverse than the crowd, and Fort Worth has plenty of nonwhite citizens.
I also loved the speeches, but had the same feeling I have always had at official political functions...failure to understand that you need to tell people what they can do besides vote. You need to tell them to organize, to do door to door, to find their party's office and volunteer, etc. etc. They had a crowd full of excited people cheering and standing on hot asphalt in 100 degree heat, and they didn't tell us to do anything but vote. The vote is a long time away. They need to use that momentum now, not let it dissipate. Just saying "go vote, now!" feels like both a letdown and patronizing. Duh, guys. Tell us what we can do before that, rev us up, send us out to make some waves.
The fact that they don't do this of course makes me wonder if they really want to win, or are too afraid of enlarging their little club with outsiders, or something equally uncharitable.
Lots of people have no understanding of the political process of campaigning or getting votes, and aren't going to work on it without encouragement. I wish more politicians that I like understood this and acted on it.
Our Republicans are venal and stupid, but our Democrats bear some of the blame for not fighting back harder and more effectively. It's hard not to think that if Texas goes blue, it have a lot more to do with grassroots work outside the party and demographics combined then the party fighting harder or smarter.
posted by emjaybee at 8:40 PM on July 10, 2013 [23 favorites]
I also loved the speeches, but had the same feeling I have always had at official political functions...failure to understand that you need to tell people what they can do besides vote. You need to tell them to organize, to do door to door, to find their party's office and volunteer, etc. etc. They had a crowd full of excited people cheering and standing on hot asphalt in 100 degree heat, and they didn't tell us to do anything but vote. The vote is a long time away. They need to use that momentum now, not let it dissipate. Just saying "go vote, now!" feels like both a letdown and patronizing. Duh, guys. Tell us what we can do before that, rev us up, send us out to make some waves.
The fact that they don't do this of course makes me wonder if they really want to win, or are too afraid of enlarging their little club with outsiders, or something equally uncharitable.
Lots of people have no understanding of the political process of campaigning or getting votes, and aren't going to work on it without encouragement. I wish more politicians that I like understood this and acted on it.
Our Republicans are venal and stupid, but our Democrats bear some of the blame for not fighting back harder and more effectively. It's hard not to think that if Texas goes blue, it have a lot more to do with grassroots work outside the party and demographics combined then the party fighting harder or smarter.
posted by emjaybee at 8:40 PM on July 10, 2013 [23 favorites]
There's a cost to immigration. Just ask the Penobscot.
posted by TheWhiteSkull at 8:42 PM on July 10, 2013
posted by TheWhiteSkull at 8:42 PM on July 10, 2013
There are plenty of legitimate reasons to oppose immigration reform. But it's time to be honest about one big bad reason driving some of the most passionate, if less high-profile, opponents: Fear that whites are losing their country.
That was written by Mattk K. Lewis, a staunch conservative.
posted by mcmile at 8:56 PM on July 10, 2013 [2 favorites]
That was written by Mattk K. Lewis, a staunch conservative.
posted by mcmile at 8:56 PM on July 10, 2013 [2 favorites]
dances_with_sneetches: "But this was before Latinos became supertoxic with laser beam eyes."
If the real world is anything like D&D that means as a half-Latino I am semi-toxic but still with laser beam eyes. Fuck yes!
posted by invitapriore at 9:00 PM on July 10, 2013 [1 favorite]
If the real world is anything like D&D that means as a half-Latino I am semi-toxic but still with laser beam eyes. Fuck yes!
posted by invitapriore at 9:00 PM on July 10, 2013 [1 favorite]
Wha is this cost you mention? Is it in some fantasy economy where migrants and immigrants don't put more money into local economies than they take out?
posted by Brocktoon at 9:27 PM on July 10, 2013 [5 favorites]
posted by Brocktoon at 9:27 PM on July 10, 2013 [5 favorites]
The question seems to be whether the GOP's elderly, bigoted base will pass away before the party does
I've been hearing and reading about how much trouble the GOP/Conservatives are in once their supporters die of for almost 30 years.
It will never happen. It's laziness to believe in it. The GOP polls well in every age bracket above 35.
At this point, I don't think I'll live long enough to see the damage they've done in the past 10 years undone - and I'm only 40.
posted by Pogo_Fuzzybutt at 9:34 PM on July 10, 2013 [6 favorites]
"They had a crowd full of excited people cheering and standing on hot asphalt in 100 degree heat, and they didn't tell us to do anything but vote. The vote is a long time away. They need to use that momentum now, not let it dissipate. Just saying "go vote, now!" feels like both a letdown and patronizing. Duh, guys. Tell us what we can do before that, rev us up, send us out to make some waves."
Go tell your friends why you went, and try to make friends with some other people who are interested in building a strong Democratic Party in Texas. Then pick one local race that you want to win (or at least influence). For 2014, people are starting to make their campaign plans now, and finding the right candidate can take a while. By working on local races and getting them set up, you'll have a better infrastructure, including a list of volunteers and voters, that can help you with statewide races, etc.
It's also easy to form a PAC. Then you can fundraise, and when you have money, you have some say in which candidates run and how they run. You don't have to have a ton of money to win local races, and, again, the infrastructure will help other candidates you agree with even if you don't have time to be super active on their behalf in regular elections.
But really — you can start talking about this with your friends now. Form something DIY. Start filing paperwork. Start looking for winnable races.
posted by klangklangston at 9:46 PM on July 10, 2013 [2 favorites]
Go tell your friends why you went, and try to make friends with some other people who are interested in building a strong Democratic Party in Texas. Then pick one local race that you want to win (or at least influence). For 2014, people are starting to make their campaign plans now, and finding the right candidate can take a while. By working on local races and getting them set up, you'll have a better infrastructure, including a list of volunteers and voters, that can help you with statewide races, etc.
It's also easy to form a PAC. Then you can fundraise, and when you have money, you have some say in which candidates run and how they run. You don't have to have a ton of money to win local races, and, again, the infrastructure will help other candidates you agree with even if you don't have time to be super active on their behalf in regular elections.
But really — you can start talking about this with your friends now. Form something DIY. Start filing paperwork. Start looking for winnable races.
posted by klangklangston at 9:46 PM on July 10, 2013 [2 favorites]
I've pointed this out before, but most people in the USA today have ancestors who migrated before the USA had any federal immigration laws. Then, as now, the initial rationale for these laws was racist and not economic. Then, as now, migrants were an enormous benefit to the USA: first-generation migrants are notoriously likely to be entrepreneurs; second-generation migrants are notoriously likely to be even wealthier and more successful that their parents. I have a feeling (as yet unquantified) that the USA's economic began to decline when it ran out of these first- and second-generation migrants.
posted by Joe in Australia at 10:20 PM on July 10, 2013
posted by Joe in Australia at 10:20 PM on July 10, 2013
I have a feeling (as yet unquantified) that the USA's economic began to decline when it ran out of these first- and second-generation migrants.
Not so much "ran out of them" as "made it exceedingly hard for them to be here legally, totally throwing out the possibility of their entrepreneurial success". They're here, they just can't become successful in the way others can because that draws attention and gets them deported. But we can't have that because they might become *gasp!* community leaders and respected business owners if they had the chance!
posted by jason_steakums at 11:02 PM on July 10, 2013
Not so much "ran out of them" as "made it exceedingly hard for them to be here legally, totally throwing out the possibility of their entrepreneurial success". They're here, they just can't become successful in the way others can because that draws attention and gets them deported. But we can't have that because they might become *gasp!* community leaders and respected business owners if they had the chance!
posted by jason_steakums at 11:02 PM on July 10, 2013
Could Republicans accept Hispanics, not as real people, mind you, but as 3/5ths of a person?
This may seem like a nitpick, but it was the South that wanted their slaves to be counted as full people for the purpose of allocating representatives. It was the North that didn't want them to count at all (since they were, after all, considered property not not permitted to vote). The compromise came to 3/5, but not because the slaveowning states wanted less.
posted by chimaera at 12:01 AM on July 11, 2013 [4 favorites]
This may seem like a nitpick, but it was the South that wanted their slaves to be counted as full people for the purpose of allocating representatives. It was the North that didn't want them to count at all (since they were, after all, considered property not not permitted to vote). The compromise came to 3/5, but not because the slaveowning states wanted less.
posted by chimaera at 12:01 AM on July 11, 2013 [4 favorites]
There's a really unhappy parallel between the slave "vote" and the so-called "ghost voters" created by the prison industry. Each of these represents a self-perpetuating system of misery: the human flesh incarcerated in prison districts is used to bulk out the districts in which they reside and to empower its masters. Similarly, the "3/5" rule was designed to keep slaveholders powerful; their masters could extract everything else from their slaves, so why not extract and use their votes?
posted by Joe in Australia at 2:02 AM on July 11, 2013 [8 favorites]
posted by Joe in Australia at 2:02 AM on July 11, 2013 [8 favorites]
I've been hearing and reading about how much trouble the GOP/Conservatives are in once their supporters die of for almost 30 years.
It will never happen. It's laziness to believe in it. The GOP polls well in every age bracket above 35.
Even if Republicans are "doomed" to fewer votes:
1. They know that they can gum up the works and get the legislation they want by filibustering.
2. If filibustering doesn't work, Democrats will pass Republican legislation couched in their own language, anyway.
They win, either way.
posted by Blazecock Pileon at 2:51 AM on July 11, 2013
It will never happen. It's laziness to believe in it. The GOP polls well in every age bracket above 35.
Even if Republicans are "doomed" to fewer votes:
1. They know that they can gum up the works and get the legislation they want by filibustering.
2. If filibustering doesn't work, Democrats will pass Republican legislation couched in their own language, anyway.
They win, either way.
posted by Blazecock Pileon at 2:51 AM on July 11, 2013
Yeah, I just don't see why the Republicans don't realize that allowing an estimated 11 million unauthorized immigrants to settle here isn't to their own benefit, because after all the 3 million legalized in 1986 when President Reagan signed the Simpson-Mazzoli Act certainly became staunch Republican voters.
George W Bush won 40% of the Latino vote in 2004, just sayin'. And, let's not forget about, y'know, the idea of being compassionate human beings.
There's a cost to immigration just like everything else.
Not sure what the cost would be, but it's certainly not a financial one, and is in fact a net benefit.
posted by zombieflanders at 6:12 AM on July 11, 2013 [2 favorites]
George W Bush won 40% of the Latino vote in 2004, just sayin'. And, let's not forget about, y'know, the idea of being compassionate human beings.
There's a cost to immigration just like everything else.
Not sure what the cost would be, but it's certainly not a financial one, and is in fact a net benefit.
posted by zombieflanders at 6:12 AM on July 11, 2013 [2 favorites]
Not so fast.
There is a good argument to be made that the Republicans don't care about the Latino vote because they don't have to in order to thoroughly dominate the elections - including presidential - for the next 30 years or more.
Here is the argument, in four parts. You may or may not find it convincing, but the guy is showing his math, and he is has a point... the only question is how far that point goes:
1) The Case of the Missing White Voters, Revisited
2) Does GOP Have to Pass Immigration Reform?
3)The GOP and Hispanics: What the Future Holds
4)Demographics and the GOP, Part IV
and bonus:
Gerrymandering and the Republican House
Trende does not make a very convincing argument, actually. Here's some rebuttals:
Doubling Down on the White Man’s Party
How the GOP stopped worrying about Latinos and learned to love the base
On immigration, demographics and math
GOP Might Just Stick with This "Party of White People" Thing
No, Republicans, ‘Missing’ White Voters Won’t Save You
Should Republicans Just Focus on White Voters?
The TL;DR of all of that is that, no, the "missing white voter" math does not check out, and that the only viable path is voter suppression, for which they got an assist from SCOTUS, led by a Chief Justice who in his capacity while serving with the Reagan administration was specifically to neuter the VRA. Mission accomplished!
posted by zombieflanders at 6:28 AM on July 11, 2013 [2 favorites]
There is a good argument to be made that the Republicans don't care about the Latino vote because they don't have to in order to thoroughly dominate the elections - including presidential - for the next 30 years or more.
Here is the argument, in four parts. You may or may not find it convincing, but the guy is showing his math, and he is has a point... the only question is how far that point goes:
1) The Case of the Missing White Voters, Revisited
2) Does GOP Have to Pass Immigration Reform?
3)The GOP and Hispanics: What the Future Holds
4)Demographics and the GOP, Part IV
and bonus:
Gerrymandering and the Republican House
Trende does not make a very convincing argument, actually. Here's some rebuttals:
Doubling Down on the White Man’s Party
How the GOP stopped worrying about Latinos and learned to love the base
On immigration, demographics and math
GOP Might Just Stick with This "Party of White People" Thing
No, Republicans, ‘Missing’ White Voters Won’t Save You
Should Republicans Just Focus on White Voters?
The TL;DR of all of that is that, no, the "missing white voter" math does not check out, and that the only viable path is voter suppression, for which they got an assist from SCOTUS, led by a Chief Justice who in his capacity while serving with the Reagan administration was specifically to neuter the VRA. Mission accomplished!
posted by zombieflanders at 6:28 AM on July 11, 2013 [2 favorites]
Also, yes, the House is unlikely to unstick until 2020, but after that it's anyone's guess because of Census drawing. In the meantime, demographics alone won't provide GOP wins in presidential election years, although midterms might be a different story.
posted by zombieflanders at 6:30 AM on July 11, 2013
posted by zombieflanders at 6:30 AM on July 11, 2013
Obama's second term sure went to shit in a hurry.
At least he managed to get James Comey a job.
posted by notyou at 7:14 AM on July 11, 2013
At least he managed to get James Comey a job.
posted by notyou at 7:14 AM on July 11, 2013
The worst part of all of this is that the Senate is in just as bad shape as the House because of the filibuster. On immigration, it's the House GOP that refuses to compromise, but yesterday, the GOP filibustered a House GOP-backed proposal to partially clean up the student loan rate mess that they created last month. Despite getting enough votes for passage in the GOP-controlled House, the bill was opposed by every single GOP Senator, enough to block the bill despite a majority favoring passage. You see bipartisan coalition-building in the Senate more often than in the House, but the bills usually die anyway because of the need to get 60 votes on every. single. fucking. bill.
And nobody notices, because the media is happy to report that "The Senate" failed to pass the bill, when it's really the hostage takers in the GOP caucus blocking any bill that could make Democrats look like they're governing.
posted by tonycpsu at 7:41 AM on July 11, 2013
And nobody notices, because the media is happy to report that "The Senate" failed to pass the bill, when it's really the hostage takers in the GOP caucus blocking any bill that could make Democrats look like they're governing.
posted by tonycpsu at 7:41 AM on July 11, 2013
But this was before Latinos became supertoxic with laser beam eyes.
I blame Monsanto.
posted by jaduncan at 8:09 AM on July 11, 2013
I blame Monsanto.
posted by jaduncan at 8:09 AM on July 11, 2013
I wonder if the SCOTUS destruction of the Civil Rights Act has had an effect Republican imigration strategy. If they can suppress the Latino vote through gerrymandering and voting laws, maybe they don't really need to worry that much about changing voter demographics.
We're searching our souls and we're wondering why,
we got beat so badly our rivals are gloating.
It’s obvious now where our campaign went wrong,
we should have prevented more people from voting.
- Calvin Trillin
posted by Golden Eternity at 8:26 AM on July 11, 2013 [2 favorites]
We're searching our souls and we're wondering why,
we got beat so badly our rivals are gloating.
It’s obvious now where our campaign went wrong,
we should have prevented more people from voting.
- Calvin Trillin
posted by Golden Eternity at 8:26 AM on July 11, 2013 [2 favorites]
If the real world is anything like D&D that means as a half-Latino I am semi-toxic but still with laser beam eyes. Fuck yes!
But the lasers are very low power. Rather than melting flesh with agonizing flame, The beams feel like a warm and gentle tropical rain.
posted by Thoughtcrime at 9:27 AM on July 11, 2013 [1 favorite]
But the lasers are very low power. Rather than melting flesh with agonizing flame, The beams feel like a warm and gentle tropical rain.
posted by Thoughtcrime at 9:27 AM on July 11, 2013 [1 favorite]
The worst part of all of this is that the Senate is in just as bad shape as the House because of the filibuster.
Normally I don't recommend exporting the mess of legislative rules we have in Texas to the national Congress, but in this case, I say make 'em actually filibuster. Make 'em stand there and talk until they get tired if they want to stop a bill. I don't understand why the threat of a filibuster is treated as a bill-killing measure in the US Congress.
posted by donajo at 9:38 AM on July 11, 2013
Normally I don't recommend exporting the mess of legislative rules we have in Texas to the national Congress, but in this case, I say make 'em actually filibuster. Make 'em stand there and talk until they get tired if they want to stop a bill. I don't understand why the threat of a filibuster is treated as a bill-killing measure in the US Congress.
posted by donajo at 9:38 AM on July 11, 2013
I don't understand why the threat of a filibuster is treated as a bill-killing measure in the US Congress.
It was a deal made in the 70s.
Talking filibusters aren't "We stand there and talk until we get tired and then you win." The threat underlying a talking filibuster is that while I'm standing here talking, I'm taking up the time that we would have spent for Bill1. And if I keep talking, I'm using up the time that we would have spent on Bill2 and Bill3, and any other topic or bill. Talking filibusters work either by literally running out the clock, in chambers with hard limits on session length, or by getting the supports of Bill1 and Bill2 and Bill3 to urge the supporters of FilibusteredBill (or party leaders) to withdraw the bill because they're worried that the chamber is never going to get back to their bills that were filibustered-over.
The deal in the 70s was that there would be multiple tracks of legislation, so that if one bill was "filibustered" we'd just move on to another topic, but that in exchange, the filibuster would be virtual. But that was back in the 70s, when that other track wasn't virtually certain to be filibustered too.
Requiring them to stand up and talk would not be much of a deterrent in any case. By and large filibustering senators are taking positions broadly approved of by their (general or primary) constituents, and legislators love taking public positions that their constituents approve of.
posted by ROU_Xenophobe at 10:19 AM on July 11, 2013 [4 favorites]
It was a deal made in the 70s.
Talking filibusters aren't "We stand there and talk until we get tired and then you win." The threat underlying a talking filibuster is that while I'm standing here talking, I'm taking up the time that we would have spent for Bill1. And if I keep talking, I'm using up the time that we would have spent on Bill2 and Bill3, and any other topic or bill. Talking filibusters work either by literally running out the clock, in chambers with hard limits on session length, or by getting the supports of Bill1 and Bill2 and Bill3 to urge the supporters of FilibusteredBill (or party leaders) to withdraw the bill because they're worried that the chamber is never going to get back to their bills that were filibustered-over.
The deal in the 70s was that there would be multiple tracks of legislation, so that if one bill was "filibustered" we'd just move on to another topic, but that in exchange, the filibuster would be virtual. But that was back in the 70s, when that other track wasn't virtually certain to be filibustered too.
Requiring them to stand up and talk would not be much of a deterrent in any case. By and large filibustering senators are taking positions broadly approved of by their (general or primary) constituents, and legislators love taking public positions that their constituents approve of.
posted by ROU_Xenophobe at 10:19 AM on July 11, 2013 [4 favorites]
A very detailed running of Trende's numbers on white voters and finding them wanting, with a focus on non-southern whites: Winning More White Voters Won't Save the GOP
There are two ways to view the Democratic resilience, or even strength, among non-southern whites. On the one hand, there’s room for Republicans to improve among white voters. That gives the GOP a route to the presidency without big gains among non-white voters, at least for now. On the other hand, it casts doubt on the view that Republicans will inexorably gain among whites, at least outside of the South.posted by zombieflanders at 11:51 AM on July 11, 2013 [1 favorite]
Reversing the anti-GOP trend among non-southern white voters will probably require changes in messaging or policy, probably by moderating on both economic and cultural issues. The Electoral College encourages the GOP to make gains across a diverse swath of swing states, and they need to push back against the equally diverse Democratic attacks that have hobbled the GOP: the attacks on cultural issues that hurt Republicans around Denver, Washington, and Columbus; the depiction of the GOP as the party of the elite, which has hurt the GOP just about everywhere; and yes, the challenges immigration reform poses in Las Vegas, Denver, Orlando-Kissimmee, and Miami.
Yet conservatives take solace in the possibility that they could win with gains through whites, presumably on the assumption that the changes needed for gains among non-southern white voters will be less painful than embracing immigration reform. To the extent that this assumption is informed by the view that the GOP is making broad, steady gains among white voters, it is wrong. The GOP has a tough road ahead.
If the Dems move any farther to the right, they'll die out just when the Republicans do. I wonder what'll come along to fill the vacuum?
posted by Twang at 12:39 PM on July 11, 2013 [1 favorite]
posted by Twang at 12:39 PM on July 11, 2013 [1 favorite]
: "Requiring them to stand up and talk would not be much of a deterrent in any case. By and large filibustering senators are taking positions broadly approved of by their (general or primary) constituents, and legislators love taking public positions that their constituents approve of."
Talking filibusters at least add a political price tag. I don't think the senators would be able to take the heat of public scrutiny when they're, day in and day out, featured in the press as they very actively obstruct the legislative process. We're in the middle of the least-productive legislative session in history, with an unprecedented number of filibusters.
Sunlight is a fantastic disinfectant, and I don't think the breathtaking abuse of the filibuster would last long if the public were able see a GOP face repeatedly associated with the obstructionism.
posted by mullingitover at 2:06 PM on July 11, 2013 [2 favorites]
Talking filibusters at least add a political price tag. I don't think the senators would be able to take the heat of public scrutiny when they're, day in and day out, featured in the press as they very actively obstruct the legislative process. We're in the middle of the least-productive legislative session in history, with an unprecedented number of filibusters.
Sunlight is a fantastic disinfectant, and I don't think the breathtaking abuse of the filibuster would last long if the public were able see a GOP face repeatedly associated with the obstructionism.
posted by mullingitover at 2:06 PM on July 11, 2013 [2 favorites]
Requiring them to stand up and talk would not be much of a deterrent in any case. By and large filibustering senators are taking positions broadly approved of by their (general or primary) constituents, and legislators love taking public positions that their constituents approve of.
I'm honestly not trying to be snarky here, but consider the implications of requiring Stand-N-Talk filibusters combined with the fact that not a few senators are in their 70s and 80s.
posted by LastOfHisKind at 5:53 PM on July 11, 2013
I'm honestly not trying to be snarky here, but consider the implications of requiring Stand-N-Talk filibusters combined with the fact that not a few senators are in their 70s and 80s.
posted by LastOfHisKind at 5:53 PM on July 11, 2013
The Bush/Reagan video strikes me as extra bittersweet resulting from the giant League of Women Voters backdrop proclaiming the debate's sponsorship.
posted by threeants at 5:54 PM on July 11, 2013 [1 favorite]
posted by threeants at 5:54 PM on July 11, 2013 [1 favorite]
Teacher-turned-representative Mark Takano got a hold of some of the GOP's talking points, and marked them up.
Suffice it to say, the GOP's arguments were....lacking in substance.
posted by schmod at 9:24 PM on July 11, 2013 [3 favorites]
Suffice it to say, the GOP's arguments were....lacking in substance.
posted by schmod at 9:24 PM on July 11, 2013 [3 favorites]
consider the implications of requiring Stand-N-Talk filibusters combined with the fact that not a few senators are in their 70s and 80s
It would bias the talking towards younger senators and older ones who happen to be fitter. You only need a very few of either to sustain the talking part of an old-style filibuster.
posted by ROU_Xenophobe at 10:12 PM on July 11, 2013
It would bias the talking towards younger senators and older ones who happen to be fitter. You only need a very few of either to sustain the talking part of an old-style filibuster.
posted by ROU_Xenophobe at 10:12 PM on July 11, 2013
From the man described as "the Walter Cronkite of Hispanic news," Jorge Ramos of Univision:
@jorgeramosnews: Does @SpeakerBoehner really want to be the new Joe Arpaio for the Hispanic community?
posted by zombieflanders at 8:20 AM on July 12, 2013
@jorgeramosnews: Does @SpeakerBoehner really want to be the new Joe Arpaio for the Hispanic community?
posted by zombieflanders at 8:20 AM on July 12, 2013
I wonder if the SCOTUS destruction of the Civil Voting Rights Act has had an effect Republican imigration strategy.
Doh!
Lyndon B. Johnson - We Shall Overcome
posted by Golden Eternity at 12:53 PM on July 13, 2013 [1 favorite]
Doh!
Lyndon B. Johnson - We Shall Overcome
So we want to open the gates to opportunity. But we're also going to give all our people, black and white, the help that they need to walk through those gates. My first job after college was as a teacher in Cotulla, Texas, in a small Mexican-American school. Few of them could speak English and I couldn't speak much Spanish. My students were poor and they often came to class without breakfast and hungry. And they knew even in their youth the pain of prejudice. They never seemed to know why people disliked them, but they knew it was so because I saw it in their eyes.Or not, I guess.
I often walked home late in the afternoon after the classes were finished wishing there was more that I could do. But all I knew was to teach them the little that I knew, hoping that I might help them against the hardships that lay ahead. And somehow you never forget what poverty and hatred can do when you see its scars on the hopeful face of a young child.
I never thought then, in 1928, that I would be standing here in 1965. It never even occurred to me in my fondest dreams that I might have the chance to help the sons and daughters of those students, and to help people like them all over this country. But now I do have that chance.
[...]
But even if we pass this bill the battle will not be over. What happened in Selma is part of a far larger movement which reaches into every section and state of America. It is the effort of American Negroes to secure for themselves the full blessings of American life. Their cause must be our cause too. Because it's not just Negroes, but really it's all of us, who must overcome the crippling legacy of bigotry and injustice.
And we shall overcome.
posted by Golden Eternity at 12:53 PM on July 13, 2013 [1 favorite]
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posted by sonic meat machine at 7:25 PM on July 10, 2013