Syriza stretches poll lead as Greek election campaign ends

January 23, 2015 3:53 PM

Greece’s anti-austerity party of the left, Syriza, has stretched its election lead to six points, putting it on course for a historic victory in Sunday’s crucial elections. Barely four weeks after the failure of parliament to elect a president, triggering the ballot, Greece’s fate now lies in the hands of 9.8 million voters. All the polls show, with growing conviction, that victory will go to Syriza. A poll released by GPO for Mega TV late on Thursday gave the far leftists a six-percentage-point lead over Samaras’s centre-right New Democracy, the dominant force in a coalition government that has held power since June 2012. A week earlier, GPO had the lead at four percentage points.

Frédéric Lordon: Syriza faces a choice between capitulation and open sedition

Syriza’s salvation won’t come from any European compromise nor from the chimera of the EU reflecting for a bit and deciding to reorganise its institutions. Such a proposal is as lacking in political realism as it is certain to be put off till some future point that never stops drifting further away. But the inanity of these false solutions doesn’t mean that there aren’t real ones. There is always an alternative. And in this case, the alternative is not to bend over backwards for the EU’s sake, but to overthrow the whole thing.

For all those people who feel a mix of worry, doubt and hope as they ruminate from afar on what might happen in Greece, there’s really only one thing left to do. Countering the gravitational pull of the institutions that work to bring deviants to order, they have to remind Syriza – at its current crossroads – of everything that’s depending on it, which is no small thing. It has to really fight austerity in the only way possible, with a rupture; it has to stand for open sedition against the ‘Union’s’ neoliberal order. That its, it must create a liberatory event that will free not only the Greek people, but also the many others who share its hopes.

Greece: Phase One: Syriza is the Left’s best chance at success in a generation. But for socialists, the hard part starts after election day. An interview with Stathis Kouvelakis conducted earlier this month. Kouvelakis is a member of the central committee of Syriza and a leading member of its Left Platform. He teaches political theory at King’s College London and is the author of Philosophy and Revolution from Kant to Marx and coeditor of Lenin Reloaded and Critical Companion to Contemporary Marxism.

A brief note from afar on the Greek election campaign from Stathis Kouvelakis: Toward - and for – a ‘Syriza landslide’!

1. The signs I’m getting from friends and comrades, in both Athens and the rest of Greece – corroborated by ‘local’ surveys (for the regions and major cities) – are all pointing the same way. It looks like there’s a wave of support heading Syriza’s way this Sunday. In the working-class districts of Athens the Right faces an utter rout. Meanwhile, outside the capital whole chunks of the right-wing electorate are now breaking for Syriza, following former PASOK voters. There is a calm atmosphere in the country, but at the same time real expectation is mounting. The conditions are ripe for a dynamic to build behind Syriza.

2. From a political point of view the Greek bourgeoisie and its political representatives are stunned and voiceless. All their hopes of heading off Syriza rely on Europe’s leaders – and ruling classes. For their part, the line seems clear enough: it is the politics of the ‘iron cage’, seeking to shut down a Syriza government as quickly as possible. The spearhead of this effort is the attempt to force Syriza to request an extension of the current ‘assistance programme’, which runs out on 28 February. Such an extension would allow continued financing, and thus for the debt to be repaid, but also implies continuing with the current policy and the country being subject to Troika discipline – perhaps under mildly reworked terms.

Greece’s solidarity movement: ‘it’s a whole new model – and it’s working’: Citizen-run health clinics, food centres, kitchens and legal aid hubs have sprung up to fill the gaps left by austerity – and now look set to play a bigger role under a Syriza government.

All these projects, it’s very important to me, are not just helping people who need it, but they represent almost the start of a new kind of society,” Katerini said. “They are run as direct democracies, with no hierarchy. They are about people taking responsibility for their lives, putting their skills to use, becoming productive again.”

posted by standardasparagus (52 comments total)

There's a good chance that Syriza will not only win the election (that seems almost certain), but that it will even win an absolute majority in the Parliament with just a shade over 150 seats. That majority seems to me to be crucial for any effective Syriza-style government.

Does anyone know of an English-language source that will giving live election updates as the polls close and results are announced? Will e.g. Kathimerini be doing anything?
posted by crazy with stars at 4:03 PM on January 23, 2015 [2 favorites]

Greek elections: live coverage from Athens

#VoteSyriza2015 Greek Election Liveblog
posted by standardasparagus at 4:07 PM on January 23, 2015

If they have any sense, they will default on all the debt five minutes after the swearing in.
posted by PMdixon at 4:09 PM on January 23, 2015

Default on the debt, withdraw from the Euro, and embrace the robust economy it had for so many years before cooking the books to squeak in to the Eurozone.
posted by Nelson at 4:17 PM on January 23, 2015 [5 favorites]

At least by my read, Greece is now in a far stronger negotiating position than the EU. The EU bailout funds were used in large part, to finance debt. Debt that was held in large part by EU banks. Having lived through punishing austerity the problems a default would cause probably don't look so scary to the average Greek. Meanwhile the prospect of a Greek default, possible domino effect and other hard hit countries following their lead (Ireland and Spain leap to mind), and what that might mean for the EU is just as terrifying to the EU as it was when the crisis began.

Syriza may not need a Greek default if they can squeeze hard enough when talking to Brussels.
posted by Grimgrin at 4:19 PM on January 23, 2015 [2 favorites]

Austerity was a terrible policy.
posted by humanfont at 4:19 PM on January 23, 2015 [4 favorites]

I'm looking forward to the hilarity when they realize that they have to actually govern.
posted by jpe at 4:29 PM on January 23, 2015 [1 favorite]

I'm looking forward to the hilarity when they realize that they have to actually govern.

Why should they be the first?
posted by PMdixon at 4:34 PM on January 23, 2015 [2 favorites]

All the Greek political stories I've read in the last few years have been about the rise of hard-right fascists, so this is welcome news. Does this indicate a general movement away from Greece's hard-right?
posted by GameDesignerBen at 4:54 PM on January 23, 2015 [1 favorite]

I wonder whether a Pinochet-style coup will follow at the Stakeholders' behest; perhaps some of the Golden Dawn thugs can be rehabilitated into credible “defenders of Liberty”.
posted by acb at 4:56 PM on January 23, 2015

Thanks for posting this! My facebook feed is blowing up about this issue. Exciting times for the left! More articles:

Jerome Roos: What Happens in Greece can Transform Europe

This election can turn the tide in Greece (interview with Sotiris Martalis, a member of the Central Committee of SYRIZA)

GMIL, however, is not too optimistic

As far as Golden Dawn goes, I think they've been on the decline since a lot of their leaders were arrested over a year ago. They're still around, however. Polling results from a couple weeks ago are at the bottom of this page.
posted by Noisy Pink Bubbles at 5:02 PM on January 23, 2015 [2 favorites]

My understanding is Golden Dawn as an organization got taken down a few notches after its leader was arrested in murder charges. The whole group has been branded criminal and de-legitimized. No doubt there's still plenty of neo-facists knocking around Greece.

Not Syriza though, they're more of a populist movement specifically selling the language of Greece being better off without the policies and requirements of the hated EU, particularly Germany. It seems clear they will win this election, and clear that soon after Greece will either default entirely on European debt obligations or, if they're lucky, somehow strong-arm Germany into letting them repackage the debt and renegotiate the terms of staying in the Euro.

This set of links is a terrific backgrounder. If you want a less Syriza-friendly viewpoint The Economist is predictably not impressed with them.

I'm worried for Greece. I mean they've made it 40 years without a military junta running the place, I just wonder how much longer that will last if the economy doesn't improve.
posted by Nelson at 5:06 PM on January 23, 2015

While agree about defaulting I'm wondering if Nelson's comment. About a "formerly" robust economy is sarcasm?
posted by JPD at 5:09 PM on January 23, 2015 [2 favorites]

Speaking of right-wing perspectives, one interesting take on all of this is from the Financial Times (Wolfgang Münchau), which argues that SYRIZA is the only force capable of saving the Euro:

Radical left is right about Europe’s debt

Political extremists may be the eurozone’s saviours
posted by Noisy Pink Bubbles at 5:13 PM on January 23, 2015 [4 favorites]

acb: I can't see the EU surviving sponsoring or even turning a blind eye to a coup. Every nationalist political movement in Europe would be shouting from the rooftops about it. They'd have their proof that the EU is really set to destroy the sovereignty of it's member states and does only tolerate electorates out of convenience. Imagine what the euro-skeptic right in the UK or France could do with it, even if they might be broadly sympathetic to the action, the opportunity to really stick the boot into the EU would be too huge to pass up. Hell, imagine trying to tell the average German voter that it was necessary that their government help put fascists in power in Greece. The fallout would mean death for the EU project. It might still happen, but I kind of doubt it.
posted by Grimgrin at 5:14 PM on January 23, 2015

It's not the EU technocrats who are pro austerity - it's the Germans and Finns.
posted by JPD at 5:20 PM on January 23, 2015

I think we may see a backpedaling Germany soon.
posted by Benny Andajetz at 5:26 PM on January 23, 2015

Syriza for Greece Doesn’t Mean Leaving the Euro

Greek bonds rallied this week, with the 10-year yield falling a percentage point to 9.1 percent, suggesting investors are becoming more sanguine about the prospect of a Syriza government.

The yields were above 30% in 2012.

SYRIZA Calls for End to Austerity, But to Stay in EU… Calls EU Sanctions Against Russia Bad Policy

Panayiotis Lafazanis, the parliamentary spokesman for SYRIZA, told us that his bloc wouldn’t seek to remove Greece from the EU if it wins the parliamentary election this Sunday, but would press ahead with scrapping austerity measure, saying, “SYRIZA isn’t advocating that we quit the Eurozone or the EU. SYRIZA is proposing a plan on how to restore and reorganise the country, cancel the Memorandum [of Economic and Financial Policies] and the austerity policy, take leave of the troika of lenders, and follow through on a programme to fight the poverty that came because of the Memorandum, and, of course, to write off a bigger chunk of [national] debt. These are our priorities and we’re going to deliver on our agenda”.

They just did a "Grexit" piece on NPR Marketplace today, and seemed to be saying a solid majority in Greece now prefer to stay in the EU. I'm looking for polling data, but am not really finding it.
posted by Golden Eternity at 5:30 PM on January 23, 2015 [1 favorite]

if Nelson's comment. About a "formerly" robust economy is sarcasm?

Yes. Greece has never had as robust of an economy as most of the other Eurozone members. They lied about their finances to meet Eurozone requirements. (Not a problem strictly unique to Greece, but there accounting was more creative than, say, France's.) Then they kept lying through the 2009 downturn.

The gap between financial reality and Greek pride because particularly clear to me when I listened to the story of Andreas Georgiou, a Greek financial statistics technocrat who was threatened with prosecution for reporting accurate deficit numbers to the EU. Georgiou's still hanging on to the job so I guess the threats haven't been carried through. Threatening to arrest technocrats because you don't like what they say is a popular thing in Greece.

It all seems terribly childish and dangerous, but maybe it works out for Greece. Maybe they play chicken again with the EU and manage to get more debt relief, more restructuring time, and some loosening of the austerity policies. Maybe they even start collecting some taxes and trimming the bureaucracy. Or maybe they withdraw entirely from the Euro and we'll see how Greece does on its own. Maybe Greece makes friends with Putin, that'd be fantastic.
posted by Nelson at 5:32 PM on January 23, 2015 [2 favorites]

I can well imagine a Grexit happening fairly soon, even if it is more political than economic. It's a sorry end to a long story, the moral of which is that aspirations of European unity alone are not enough. The EU has several times ignored reality when pursuing its goals (see the accession of Romania and Bulgaria), and it will always come back to bite them in the end.

As somebody who believes in eventual European unity, cooking the books to let Greece join--and ignoring the fundamental corruption present in that country--only sets us back.
posted by Thing at 5:33 PM on January 23, 2015

Turkey makes more sense to join the Eurozone than Greece ever has. Erdogan's cultural politics are drawing Turkey further away from the EU, but at least the economy is relatively stable.

(It seems unfair to be having this conversation when it's 3:30AM in Greece. I hope to be corrected and educated when some of the locals can participate.)
posted by Nelson at 5:36 PM on January 23, 2015

It's not the EU technocrats who are pro austerity - it's the Germans and Finns.

The technocrats are implementing the austerity policies of the Germans.
posted by JackFlash at 8:27 PM on January 23, 2015 [2 favorites]

The technocrats are implementing the austerity policies of the Germans.

Is the president of the ECB not a technocrat? Or is QE (admittedly hobbled by the bad risk sharing) austerity?
posted by PMdixon at 9:07 PM on January 23, 2015

I assume you are referring to the ECB that raised interest rates in 2011 and 2012, pushing the EU back into recession -- the technocrats who said that they had done all that was necessary and the rest must be accomplished by "structural reform" which is a polite term for breaking the backs of labor.
posted by JackFlash at 10:39 PM on January 23, 2015

As far as Golden Dawn goes, I think they've been on the decline since a lot of their leaders were arrested over a year ago. They're still around, however. Polling results from a couple weeks ago are at the bottom of this page.

There is some concern that polling results for GD are not representative: in the question for what people voted last time around, GD is getting less than what they actually got at the ballot. This can be read in two ways - either that people regret their previous vote and will not own up to it, or that GD has instructed hardline supporters to systematically lie to the polls. My feeling is that it's more the former than the latter, but we won't really know until Sunday night.
posted by Dr Dracator at 10:40 PM on January 23, 2015 [1 favorite]

Dr Dracator you're right , social desirability bias is a real thing and has led pollsters regularly astray. Americans should look up the Bradley Effect for a local example.
posted by smoke at 12:35 AM on January 24, 2015

I do hope that Syriza could actually default on the debt, drop from the Euro, inflate the currency, and maintain a functioning economy, in large part by funding the solidarity movement instead of their expensive bureaucracy. I suppose Europe might choose to go along with Syriza, allowing them to stay in the Euro, but honestly that sounds like a distraction from the actual problem governing well.
posted by jeffburdges at 12:55 AM on January 24, 2015 [1 favorite]

citizen-run health clinics, food centres, kitchens and legal aid hubs have sprung up to fill the gaps left by austerity

So the Right is right? If you cut the state back, atrophied civil society will re-grow to provide a support structure? Cool.
posted by alasdair at 1:32 AM on January 24, 2015

Citizen-run health clinics, food centres, kitchens and legal aid hubs have sprung up to fill the gaps left by austerity – and now look set to play a bigger role under a Syriza government.
All these projects, it’s very important to me, are not just helping people who need it, but they represent almost the start of a new kind of society,” Katerini said. “They are run as direct democracies, with no hierarchy. They are about people taking responsibility for their lives, putting their skills to use, becoming productive again.”

This is a very good sign.
A big problem with Greece was/is a lack of a civil society in that there was no real sense of the larger good. Everyone fends for himself and if you pay taxes, you are regarded as either stupid or crazy. Or both. So the emergence of a civil society where people help each other is a good start.

A good friend of mine, who has Greek ancestry, recently told me of a shift in general attitudes over the last three years or so. Before, his Greek relatives blamed everyone but themselves for the sorry state that Greece is in. Especially popular was apparently a story about how the German company Siemens paid bribes to secure them some infrastructure projects. (Yeah, right, I'm sure that's the main reason you are in such big trouble.) Similarly, the newspapers used to be full of Merkel = Hitler propaganda and blamed everything on the evil foreigners. Only recently have stories along the lines of "Why can't we Greeks get our shit together?" started to appear.
posted by sour cream at 2:21 AM on January 24, 2015 [1 favorite]

Reading this thread as a Greek living in Greece is a bit surreal. Syriza and Golden Dawn aren't another version of Left vs Right, in this case Radical Left vs Far Right. This is not a battle of cultures or ideas. Both parties are in effect massive protest movements: they are both angry at the existing Greek political and economic reality and they are both have (vastly different) approaches to dealing with it.

Syriza is indeed staffed with some Leftists and they are pursuing a radical left agenda. But that's not why ppl are voting for them. Instead Syriza is getting votes from: a) young ppl who feel disenfranchised (and at 30+% unemployment they are absolutely right to be) and feel that a 41 yo PM may represent them better than the rest of the grey-haired politicians in Greece, b) a massive amount of others who feel that Syriza will be able to turn the clock back to a pre-Crisis economy.

Reality is, other than Tsipras, the rest of Syriza's leadership are 60+ yo academics who have never managed a euro (or drachma) or balanced books for anything, and also, oh, that the economy is not coming back. Not in this generation: not when there are 1.2 employed people for every retiree, not with general unemployment at over 20%, 'bad' loans (personal and business) at over 30% of bank portfolios, and when every single political leader is bowing to his side's interest groups and refuses to reform anything. Anything at all.

These elections are about a nation still living in denial, 5 years after the rug was pulled from under our feet. It doesn't matter who wins tomorrow. The Greeks have lost.
posted by costas at 2:28 AM on January 24, 2015 [13 favorites]

Relevant Ig Nobel prize :

N.B.: ECONOMICS PRIZE [ITALY]: ISTAT — the Italian government's National Institute of Statistics, for proudly taking the lead in fulfilling the European Union mandate for each country to increase the official size of its national economy by including revenues from prostitution, illegal drug sales, smuggling, and all other unlawful financial transactions between willing participants.
REFERENCE: "Cambia il Sistema europeo dei conti nazionali e regionali - Sec2010", ISTAT, 2014.
REFERENCE: "European System of National and Regional Accounts (ESA 2010)," Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union, 2013.
posted by jeffburdges at 5:46 AM on January 24, 2015

It's not just some utopian idea of turning the clock back to a pre-Crisis economy, it's about how crises should be handled - and make no mistake, this will be soon coming to everyone's door. But this shouldn't be dealt with by bringing people down to their knees, obliterating worker's rights paid for with bloody fights, not by making the poor suffer even more to avoid bank bankruptcies, right in the cradle of Europe. I don't trust Syriza, they are inexperienced to say the least, as well as deeply divided as any leftist movement. But some of us have just had enough of the inefficient and cynical government kowtowing to every financial demand while sparing the rich and traditionally benefiting classes, while at the same time not adhering to any sound reforms proposed in the memorandum. This may go down in a blaze of glory, but it might be worth a try. In any case, whoever wins, I don't expect to see many celebrations - we are all aware of the severity of the times and very apprehensive about our future.
posted by helion at 7:04 AM on January 24, 2015 [3 favorites]

I have found the situation in Greece absolutely fascinating for a while now. It does seem like the country has begun to turn a corner on how it views its situation, but I wouldn't trust any politician that claims it has an answer for as big of a problem as they have. I was laid off during the American recession, but I couldn't imagine experiencing the added weight of all the other issues in their economy.

Part of me would like to see Syriza do the most drastic thing possible and let the EU know they weren't going to be financially handcuffed anymore. I don't believe it would solve all of their problems (I second the comments here questioning their day to day governing abilities), but it would certainly make for another interesting chapter in the euro story.

My girlfriend's mother is a Greek living in America, and she once said she didn't think Greece should be in the EU because its culturally very different. Considering the gap between their fiscal policy and Germany's, I found that to be a bit of a pleasant take on things. There's also some truth there, though. Greece sits bordering nations that it may share some things with, but none of its neighbors strongly resemble the country. I wonder if it would be better off setting its own course.
posted by lownote at 8:04 AM on January 24, 2015

Not Syriza though, they're more of a populist movement ...

If you read the interview with Stathis Kouvelakis in Jacobin it's quite clear that Syriza is *not* a populist movement, while a lot of it's recent growth has come from expansion in traditional hard left working class voters, the core of the party is intellectuals and public employees. Kouvelakis acknowledges that the youth and worker segments of the party are not well-organized.

Syriza was formed as both the traditional 'communist' hard left and the establishment left parties collapsed. It's ideologically diverse and doesn't have an efficient party organization... according to Kouvelakis.

I think it's rather unlikely that Syriza can govern decisively when it takes power.
posted by ennui.bz at 8:46 AM on January 24, 2015

Grexit: An Escape to More of the Same
posted by Golden Eternity at 11:12 AM on January 24, 2015

French far right rooting for hard-left Syriza in Greek poll
posted by Golden Eternity at 12:43 PM on January 24, 2015

Guardian liveblog of results.

Official exit polls are due in the next few minutes. An earlier leak put Syriza ahead by 12-14 percent, but that's not really a reliable source (and exit polls often differ from eventual results).
posted by rollick at 8:59 AM on January 25, 2015

Nevertheless, first exit polls giving Syriza a ~12.5% lead.
posted by Quilford at 9:05 AM on January 25, 2015

*wonders what taz thinks of things*
posted by Quilford at 9:24 AM on January 25, 2015

The Nazis are currently in third, apparently.
posted by Golden Eternity at 9:28 AM on January 25, 2015

Skai TV exit poll: Syriza 36-39 ND 24-27 Potami 6,5-8,5 GDawn 6-8 KKE 5-7 Pasok 4-6 Ind.Grks 2,5-4,5 GPap 2-3

source: grauniad

Kapa Research Exit Poll: SYRIZA 33.5 – 37.5 ND 25 - 28 Golden Dawn 5.5 - 7.5 To Potami 5

source: grauniad
posted by Mister Bijou at 9:35 AM on January 25, 2015

*wonders what taz thinks of things*

*Pokes head in*

We're Team Tsipras, but I'm afraid I'm going to take a pass on discussing Greek politics.
posted by taz at 10:14 AM on January 25, 2015

@dayvyg: "Syriza supporters singing anti-fascist anthem Bella Ciao at the party's election centre in Athens"
posted by Golden Eternity at 11:50 AM on January 25, 2015 [1 favorite]

Such an important event for the future of contemporary politics; it is a shame that this post is now effectively buried.
posted by standardasparagus at 4:08 PM on January 25, 2015

@ObsoleteDogma: "Syriza will reportedly form a coalition with the right-wing, anti-austerity Independent Greeks"
posted by Golden Eternity at 4:27 PM on January 25, 2015

it is a shame that this post is now effectively buried

I'm confident that anyone who wants to discuss the election, etc. on the Blue can find it.
posted by Noisy Pink Bubbles at 5:00 PM on January 25, 2015

Indeed, just a matter of the difference between actively searching the thread out versus seeing it near the top.
posted by standardasparagus at 5:15 PM on January 25, 2015

"Syriza will reportedly form a coalition with the right-wing, anti-austerity Independent Greeks"

I find this news dubious since it's not clear that SYRIZA hasn't won an outright majority in the parliament. The latest tally from the WSJ puts them at 150/300 seats with not all the votes counted.
posted by Noisy Pink Bubbles at 8:35 PM on January 25, 2015

I don't see this happening - TV is reporting 149 of the seats at 99.8% counted, and they would need 151 for a single party government.
posted by Dr Dracator at 9:17 PM on January 25, 2015

I take it back; it looks like SYRIZA is going to form a coalition government with the Independent Greeks.
posted by Noisy Pink Bubbles at 9:33 PM on January 25, 2015 [1 favorite]

IG, and their leader Kammenos are one of the winners here - this was their best case scenario. For reference, this was their main TV spot: Kammenos is explaining to young Alexis he can't run the train safely on his own, and needs guidance from somebody wiser and more experienced. Some might find this a little ironic, as IG are somewhat... interesting politically: one of Kammenos' famous moments so far has been submitting a formal question to parliament demanding to know the truth about chemtrails.
posted by Dr Dracator at 10:46 PM on January 25, 2015

Well, standardasparagus, it looks like you (kinda) got your wish: New Thread
posted by Noisy Pink Bubbles at 5:58 AM on January 26, 2015