The Odds of Dying
February 10, 2016 12:25 PM Subscribe
Everyone dies of something, but after slogging through the daily news, you'd think most people die from terrorism, shark attacks and gas explosions. But are these tragedies — not to mention deaths from lightning strikes, plane crashes and tsunamis — actually top killers in the United States?
But are these tragedies actually top killers in small-town Maine?
Worse, if that small town is named Cabot Cove.
posted by everybody had matching towels at 12:38 PM on February 10, 2016 [10 favorites]
Worse, if that small town is named Cabot Cove.
posted by everybody had matching towels at 12:38 PM on February 10, 2016 [10 favorites]
Ten weird ways to die. Number 7 will kill you!
posted by yhbc at 12:39 PM on February 10, 2016 [5 favorites]
posted by yhbc at 12:39 PM on February 10, 2016 [5 favorites]
Heart disease, cancer, stroke.
My father just had quintuple bypass surgery. I asked my doctor if I should be worried about it, and he said, "we all gotta die of something."
posted by My Dad at 12:39 PM on February 10, 2016
My father just had quintuple bypass surgery. I asked my doctor if I should be worried about it, and he said, "we all gotta die of something."
posted by My Dad at 12:39 PM on February 10, 2016
"In fact, more pedestrians died in the United States than motorcyclists (about 4,100 deaths) and bicyclists (about 900 deaths) combined"
This is challenging my worldview in far too many ways to wrap my head around.
posted by Mchelly at 12:40 PM on February 10, 2016 [1 favorite]
This is challenging my worldview in far too many ways to wrap my head around.
posted by Mchelly at 12:40 PM on February 10, 2016 [1 favorite]
It's kind of worth banging the "No, you really aren't going to be killed by terrorism" drum loud and boring though. Few things depress me more than our constant sensationalising of the risk from terror attacks. Terror is literally what terrorists want, and our overreacting to terrorism is the only way that their actions have any systemic impact whatsoever.
Terrorism doesn't matter much. That's the only sane message. Like people dying of tick bites doesn't matter and folks falling off mountains doesn't matter. It's a tragedy for those involved, and we should take reasonable steps to prevent it, but...it just doesn't matter that much, from a societal perspective.
Overreacting to terrorism, on the other hand, is a fucking nightmare.
posted by howfar at 12:46 PM on February 10, 2016 [65 favorites]
Terrorism doesn't matter much. That's the only sane message. Like people dying of tick bites doesn't matter and folks falling off mountains doesn't matter. It's a tragedy for those involved, and we should take reasonable steps to prevent it, but...it just doesn't matter that much, from a societal perspective.
Overreacting to terrorism, on the other hand, is a fucking nightmare.
posted by howfar at 12:46 PM on February 10, 2016 [65 favorites]
This is challenging my worldview in far too many ways to wrap my head around.
Very few people -- in fact, only one AFAIK -- have suffered ill effects from sticking their head into an operating particle accelerator.
This does not mean that sticking your head into an operating particle accelerator is safe.
posted by ROU_Xenophobe at 12:51 PM on February 10, 2016 [6 favorites]
Very few people -- in fact, only one AFAIK -- have suffered ill effects from sticking their head into an operating particle accelerator.
This does not mean that sticking your head into an operating particle accelerator is safe.
posted by ROU_Xenophobe at 12:51 PM on February 10, 2016 [6 favorites]
When these discussions come up I like to borrow from Bruce Schneier. I can't remember the exact quote but it's along these lines: If it were common, it wouldn't be news.
posted by elizilla at 12:54 PM on February 10, 2016 [6 favorites]
posted by elizilla at 12:54 PM on February 10, 2016 [6 favorites]
Terrorism doesn't matter much. That's the only sane message. Like people dying of tick bites doesn't matter and folks falling off mountains doesn't matter. It's a tragedy for those involved, and we should take reasonable steps to prevent it, but...it just doesn't matter that much, from a societal perspective.
Overreacting to terrorism, on the other hand, is a fucking nightmare.
It's the real life equivalent to the Phantom Menace.
posted by leotrotsky at 12:55 PM on February 10, 2016 [2 favorites]
Overreacting to terrorism, on the other hand, is a fucking nightmare.
It's the real life equivalent to the Phantom Menace.
posted by leotrotsky at 12:55 PM on February 10, 2016 [2 favorites]
Are there people who actually think terrorism, shark attacks, gas explosions, lightning strikes, plane crashes and tsunamis are anything more than a blip on the mortality tables? Wait, don't tell me, I don't want to know.
posted by entropicamericana at 12:57 PM on February 10, 2016 [2 favorites]
posted by entropicamericana at 12:57 PM on February 10, 2016 [2 favorites]
I teach prescription drugs cause 100,000 deaths per year separate from overdosing. (The article lists overdosing but not other drug deaths.)
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 12:57 PM on February 10, 2016 [3 favorites]
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 12:57 PM on February 10, 2016 [3 favorites]
Guy in India was killed by a meteorite last week... don't you tell me not keep checking the skies!
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 1:04 PM on February 10, 2016 [5 favorites]
posted by fearfulsymmetry at 1:04 PM on February 10, 2016 [5 favorites]
Do people think deaths from terrorism are common? No, probably not. But they think it's worth warping public policy to a huge degree to try to prevent it, because it's scary in a way that heart disease isn't. People are terrible at assessing risk.
They think of the risk of death of things based on how stories of those deaths make them feel. People panic at the idea of their baby being gunned down by a maniac at their school. Just writing it makes me feel awful, even though there's a tiny tiny chance it'd ever happen to my own little boy.
posted by RustyBrooks at 1:10 PM on February 10, 2016 [3 favorites]
They think of the risk of death of things based on how stories of those deaths make them feel. People panic at the idea of their baby being gunned down by a maniac at their school. Just writing it makes me feel awful, even though there's a tiny tiny chance it'd ever happen to my own little boy.
posted by RustyBrooks at 1:10 PM on February 10, 2016 [3 favorites]
Dear MY DAD
you need to consider a new doctor.
posted by Postroad at 1:11 PM on February 10, 2016 [2 favorites]
you need to consider a new doctor.
posted by Postroad at 1:11 PM on February 10, 2016 [2 favorites]
Are there people who actually think terrorism, shark attacks, gas explosions, lightning strikes, plane crashes and tsunamis are anything more than a blip on the mortality tables? Wait, don't tell me, I don't want to know.
Yes. They tend to be the same people who will tell you those things are all God punishing us for gay marriage.
Now you know.
posted by Thorzdad at 1:14 PM on February 10, 2016
Yes. They tend to be the same people who will tell you those things are all God punishing us for gay marriage.
Now you know.
posted by Thorzdad at 1:14 PM on February 10, 2016
Yes. They tend to be the same people who will tell you those things are all God punishing us for gay marriage.
Or the person in charge of SyFy's content purchasing.
posted by srboisvert at 1:51 PM on February 10, 2016 [3 favorites]
Or the person in charge of SyFy's content purchasing.
posted by srboisvert at 1:51 PM on February 10, 2016 [3 favorites]
Dear MY DAD
you need to consider a new doctor.
What I left out is that I myself take medication to treat my high blood-pressure, I have lost weight, I'm exercising and I'm dealing with stress.
So beyond that there isn't much else to ponder except that "we all die, and most of us are going to die from heart disease, cancer or stroke."
posted by My Dad at 1:53 PM on February 10, 2016 [2 favorites]
you need to consider a new doctor.
What I left out is that I myself take medication to treat my high blood-pressure, I have lost weight, I'm exercising and I'm dealing with stress.
So beyond that there isn't much else to ponder except that "we all die, and most of us are going to die from heart disease, cancer or stroke."
posted by My Dad at 1:53 PM on February 10, 2016 [2 favorites]
Overreacting to terrorism, on the other hand, is a fucking nightmare.
Especially if you work in any kind of security related field. A disproportionate amount of our training ends up geared toward terrorism, yet almost no resources are allocated toward some of the real situations that happen ALL THE TIME.
posted by louche mustachio at 2:21 PM on February 10, 2016 [4 favorites]
For years my standard response when I think someone is worrying too much about things that can't be helped has been "yeah, and I might get hit by a meteorite." Perhaps I'll have to change that now that someone has actually been killed by a meteorite.
I'm personally hoping to find a more interesting way to die than heart disease, cancer, or stroke. Blowing myself up with dynamite, careening off a cliff while riding a motorcycle, or getting crushed by the collapse of a Grateful Dead-sized wall of PA gear would all be fine. This body is still in pretty good shape so I'm pretty sure I can get another 20 good years out of it but I'd definitely rather burn out than fade away.
posted by Mars Saxman at 2:23 PM on February 10, 2016 [2 favorites]
I'm personally hoping to find a more interesting way to die than heart disease, cancer, or stroke. Blowing myself up with dynamite, careening off a cliff while riding a motorcycle, or getting crushed by the collapse of a Grateful Dead-sized wall of PA gear would all be fine. This body is still in pretty good shape so I'm pretty sure I can get another 20 good years out of it but I'd definitely rather burn out than fade away.
posted by Mars Saxman at 2:23 PM on February 10, 2016 [2 favorites]
It's kind of worth banging the "No, you really aren't going to be killed by terrorism" drum loud and boring though.
The deaths in the article are almost entirely deaths in the United States, but for terrorism (and tsunamis) they give world numbers.
posted by ActingTheGoat at 2:26 PM on February 10, 2016
The deaths in the article are almost entirely deaths in the United States, but for terrorism (and tsunamis) they give world numbers.
posted by ActingTheGoat at 2:26 PM on February 10, 2016
But are these tragedies — not to mention deaths from lightning strikes, plane crashes and tsunamis — actually top killers in the United States?
Aha, it's Betteridge's law of Metafilter excerpts.
posted by sgranade at 2:26 PM on February 10, 2016
Aha, it's Betteridge's law of Metafilter excerpts.
posted by sgranade at 2:26 PM on February 10, 2016
"But are these tragedies actually top killers in small-town Maine?"
"Worse, if that small town is named Cabot Cove."
In England, that would be the villages in the county of Midsommer.
posted by King Sky Prawn at 2:31 PM on February 10, 2016 [3 favorites]
"Worse, if that small town is named Cabot Cove."
In England, that would be the villages in the county of Midsommer.
posted by King Sky Prawn at 2:31 PM on February 10, 2016 [3 favorites]
Especially if you work in any kind of security related field. A disproportionate amount of our training ends up geared toward terrorism, yet almost no resources are allocated toward some of the real situations that happen ALL THE TIME.I am going to do my second frigging "active shooter training" soon, because my office does it every so often. I think it's been renamed "violent incident survivor training," which originally made me think it was for people who had survived violent incidents, not about how to survive in the very, very unlikely event that you encounter a (particular kind of) violent incident. And I am irrationally pissed off about this. I know that occasionally people shoot up college campuses, and I know that there is a vanishingly small chance that I could be present when someone does that. But I'm a hell of a lot more likely to be present when someone has a heart attack or slips on the ice, so maybe they could better use that time to teach us all first aid?
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 2:40 PM on February 10, 2016 [11 favorites]
howfar: Terrorism doesn't matter much. That's the only sane message.
I mostly agree with you. Mostly. The threat of terrorism isn't raw numbers, it's that it's designed to cause systemic damage, the kind that leads to a collapse of authority and thence to civil war. Terrorism isn't a major threat to Americans, because the American political system is strong and unified*, but it's a major threat to other members of the American imperial system.
*I know, I know, it doesn't seem that way during an election season, but none of the candidates is threatening a coup.
posted by clawsoon at 3:19 PM on February 10, 2016 [2 favorites]
I mostly agree with you. Mostly. The threat of terrorism isn't raw numbers, it's that it's designed to cause systemic damage, the kind that leads to a collapse of authority and thence to civil war. Terrorism isn't a major threat to Americans, because the American political system is strong and unified*, but it's a major threat to other members of the American imperial system.
*I know, I know, it doesn't seem that way during an election season, but none of the candidates is threatening a coup.
posted by clawsoon at 3:19 PM on February 10, 2016 [2 favorites]
I was expecting to see being trampled to death by a marching band playing Louie Louie after being run over by a bus and a steamroller higher up. That's how my father went.
posted by Cookiebastard at 3:21 PM on February 10, 2016 [4 favorites]
posted by Cookiebastard at 3:21 PM on February 10, 2016 [4 favorites]
Since terrorism by actual number of fatalities is not really a big concern, maybe we need some new, fear inducing categories! In an age where facts and logic are now irrelevant, how about "Radical Islamic Heart Disease" or "Communist made automobile homicides" or "Socialist colon cancer."
If only we could convince the federal government to spend the money on where it actually matters. Alas, common sense = pipe dream.
posted by Muncle at 3:32 PM on February 10, 2016 [1 favorite]
If only we could convince the federal government to spend the money on where it actually matters. Alas, common sense = pipe dream.
posted by Muncle at 3:32 PM on February 10, 2016 [1 favorite]
Very few people -- in fact, only one AFAIK -- have suffered ill effects from sticking their head into an operating particle accelerator.
Here's the deets, in case anyone else was wondering
posted by Flashman at 3:36 PM on February 10, 2016 [2 favorites]
Here's the deets, in case anyone else was wondering
posted by Flashman at 3:36 PM on February 10, 2016 [2 favorites]
It seems like this would be a lot more useful if they crunched the numbers a bit more - for instance, if they normalized by age, maybe by demographic or geographic region too. Otherwise, it's impossible to say (as people here seem to want to say) which of these things are likely to kill you, for various values of "you." For instance, the article says that the top eight causes of death are:
1. Cardiovascular disease
2. Cancer
3. Chronic lower respiratory disease
4. Accidents
5. Strokes
6. Alzheimer's disease
7. Diabetes
8. Influenza and pneumonia
... but those clearly aren't the eight most likely things to kill me, a middle-class white guy in my late 30s. How many people in their 30s die of Alzheimer's? For that matter, how many people in their 30s die of cardiovascular disease, respiratory disease, cancer, strokes, diabetes, or influenza? Or even "accidents"? One thing I do know is that a much larger proportion of the US population is elderly now than was in the past; that probably changes things a bit, namely because a much larger proportion of people are dying of what we'd normally term "old age." And most (if not all) of those eight causes of death fit the category of "dying of old age" pretty well.
Meanwhile, the fact that the population is older now is probably skewing the numbers for other groups. The article counsels us to do certain things to avoid "cardiovascular disease" - but I note it doesn't do that for Alzheimer's. I wonder if it really is very common for younger people to die of heart disease and respiratory failure. Meanwhile, I'm willing to bet that violent deaths are more common among younger people than among the general population as a whole, although I'd also warrant they've been going down for a few decades.
And, as should be obvious, you'd probably see a huge variation if you broke this out by demographic, too - by class, etc. Poverty puts people at risk of a lot of different causes of death - and sometimes in interesting ways; I'd guess that, because of the effects of poverty, the poor are more likely to die of what we think of as treatable diseases, and also of diseases that are fostered by lifestyle like heart disease and respiratory disease.
posted by koeselitz at 4:43 PM on February 10, 2016 [7 favorites]
1. Cardiovascular disease
2. Cancer
3. Chronic lower respiratory disease
4. Accidents
5. Strokes
6. Alzheimer's disease
7. Diabetes
8. Influenza and pneumonia
... but those clearly aren't the eight most likely things to kill me, a middle-class white guy in my late 30s. How many people in their 30s die of Alzheimer's? For that matter, how many people in their 30s die of cardiovascular disease, respiratory disease, cancer, strokes, diabetes, or influenza? Or even "accidents"? One thing I do know is that a much larger proportion of the US population is elderly now than was in the past; that probably changes things a bit, namely because a much larger proportion of people are dying of what we'd normally term "old age." And most (if not all) of those eight causes of death fit the category of "dying of old age" pretty well.
Meanwhile, the fact that the population is older now is probably skewing the numbers for other groups. The article counsels us to do certain things to avoid "cardiovascular disease" - but I note it doesn't do that for Alzheimer's. I wonder if it really is very common for younger people to die of heart disease and respiratory failure. Meanwhile, I'm willing to bet that violent deaths are more common among younger people than among the general population as a whole, although I'd also warrant they've been going down for a few decades.
And, as should be obvious, you'd probably see a huge variation if you broke this out by demographic, too - by class, etc. Poverty puts people at risk of a lot of different causes of death - and sometimes in interesting ways; I'd guess that, because of the effects of poverty, the poor are more likely to die of what we think of as treatable diseases, and also of diseases that are fostered by lifestyle like heart disease and respiratory disease.
posted by koeselitz at 4:43 PM on February 10, 2016 [7 favorites]
This doesn't break it out by race or class, but it looks like as a man in his late 30s, you're most likely to die of poisoning (which I think means drug overdose), followed by suicide and heart disease. But mostly, you're not very likely to die of anything.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 4:59 PM on February 10, 2016 [2 favorites]
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 4:59 PM on February 10, 2016 [2 favorites]
It seems like this would be a lot more useful if they crunched the numbers a bit more - for instance, if they normalized by age, maybe by demographic or geographic region too.
Here's the CDC's table of leading causes of death by age group in the US for 2013. Koeselitz, as a man in your thirties, you're most likely to die of an accident and then, depending on which side of 35 you're on, either suicide or cancer. Since the 3rd most common cause of death in people under 35 is homicide, life appears to get calmer after 35.
(On preview, ArbitraryandCapricious is correct, mostly you're not likely to die at all).
posted by The Elusive Architeuthis at 5:07 PM on February 10, 2016 [3 favorites]
Here's the CDC's table of leading causes of death by age group in the US for 2013. Koeselitz, as a man in your thirties, you're most likely to die of an accident and then, depending on which side of 35 you're on, either suicide or cancer. Since the 3rd most common cause of death in people under 35 is homicide, life appears to get calmer after 35.
(On preview, ArbitraryandCapricious is correct, mostly you're not likely to die at all).
posted by The Elusive Architeuthis at 5:07 PM on February 10, 2016 [3 favorites]
One would think staying in bed... well forget that, there are enough people that "strangle in their bed cloths" that it's a recorded category. Oh and beware showers and bathtubs.
posted by sammyo at 5:25 PM on February 10, 2016 [2 favorites]
posted by sammyo at 5:25 PM on February 10, 2016 [2 favorites]
I want to die peacefully in my sleep, like my grandfather. Not screaming in terror, like the passengers in his car.
posted by crazylegs at 5:54 PM on February 10, 2016 [9 favorites]
posted by crazylegs at 5:54 PM on February 10, 2016 [9 favorites]
Mauled by a mammal
(not including dogs)
If the cat trips me on the stairs and I fall to my death and then I get mauled (for supper purposes) because there was no human left to open the cans of kitty food - will this count under 'mauled by a mammal'?
posted by kitten magic at 6:17 PM on February 10, 2016 [2 favorites]
(not including dogs)
If the cat trips me on the stairs and I fall to my death and then I get mauled (for supper purposes) because there was no human left to open the cans of kitty food - will this count under 'mauled by a mammal'?
posted by kitten magic at 6:17 PM on February 10, 2016 [2 favorites]
No. That's simply "accident," followed by fair use.
posted by yesster at 7:00 PM on February 10, 2016 [8 favorites]
posted by yesster at 7:00 PM on February 10, 2016 [8 favorites]
If my death is caused by an asteroid striking the earth, I want to be riding the asteroid.
posted by justsomebodythatyouusedtoknow at 7:13 PM on February 10, 2016 [2 favorites]
posted by justsomebodythatyouusedtoknow at 7:13 PM on February 10, 2016 [2 favorites]
My father just had quintuple bypass surgery. I asked my doctor if I should be worried about it, and he said, "we all gotta die of something."
posted by My Dad
Have you considered an eponysterectomy?
posted by sneebler at 7:26 PM on February 10, 2016 [7 favorites]
posted by My Dad
Have you considered an eponysterectomy?
posted by sneebler at 7:26 PM on February 10, 2016 [7 favorites]
Tylenol kills like 1000 people a year in the US.
posted by Sebmojo at 8:13 PM on February 10, 2016 [2 favorites]
posted by Sebmojo at 8:13 PM on February 10, 2016 [2 favorites]
Oh right. I saw this earlier but didn't make the connection—this was written by a former colleague of mine. Very cool!
posted by limeonaire at 8:56 PM on February 10, 2016
posted by limeonaire at 8:56 PM on February 10, 2016
The biggest threat to most people from terrorism is further infringement of civil liberties by their own governments in the name of preventing terrorism.
posted by terretu at 12:05 AM on February 11, 2016 [6 favorites]
posted by terretu at 12:05 AM on February 11, 2016 [6 favorites]
This is why you need a Machine of Death (A machine which tells you in a few words how you are going to die)
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 2:15 AM on February 11, 2016
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 2:15 AM on February 11, 2016
Guy in India was killed by a meteorite last week... don't you tell me not keep checking the skies!
Archaeopteryx Chicken Little was right!
posted by sebastienbailard at 2:23 AM on February 11, 2016 [1 favorite]
posted by sebastienbailard at 2:23 AM on February 11, 2016 [1 favorite]
Ironic that the chicken descendants/cousins of Archaeopteryx were the only ones to survive the sky falling, now, isn't it?
Or is it? Ironic, or good planning?
posted by clawsoon at 8:11 AM on February 11, 2016 [1 favorite]
Or is it? Ironic, or good planning?
posted by clawsoon at 8:11 AM on February 11, 2016 [1 favorite]
This does break it down by gender, class, and age. Pretty interesting...
posted by LizBoBiz at 10:21 AM on February 11, 2016
posted by LizBoBiz at 10:21 AM on February 11, 2016
there are enough people that "strangle in their bed cloths" that it's a recorded category.
I heard this recently and was confused. I just tried to look it up. So much porn.
posted by bongo_x at 11:37 PM on February 11, 2016 [1 favorite]
I heard this recently and was confused. I just tried to look it up. So much porn.
posted by bongo_x at 11:37 PM on February 11, 2016 [1 favorite]
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