The truth is rarely pure and never simple

February 13, 2016 7:11 AM

Zika is not the new Ebola But what is the truth about Zika and microcephaly?
Argentine and Brazilian doctors suspect mosquito insecticide as cause of microcephaly
Meanwhile Brazil’s health minister insisted on Friday that authorities were “absolutely sure” Zika was connected to microcephaly, though it has yet to be scientifically proven.
A review of four years’ worth of medical records finds far greater numbers of microcephaly cases from before the ongoing Zika virus epidemic than had been officially reported.
(Related)
posted by adamvasco (27 comments total)

Well, at least people are taking the problem seriously now.
posted by Small Dollar at 7:42 AM on February 13, 2016

No worries. We can just introduce lions to keep the populations of pesticide manufacturer headquarters in check.
posted by Behemoth at 7:48 AM on February 13, 2016 [15 favorites]

Yup there are plenty of anancephaly, and microcephaly, a number in Brownsville Texas/Matamoros and a bunch of new cases in the Yakima Washington area. They still put thalidomide in acne medication and the morning after drug coctail also has some mutagenic capabilities, the methotrexate. In the favelas, and other areas, some morning after concoction may have become the go to method of birth control. It is also possible some chemical contaminant got into something as ubiquitous as sunscreen, put out by a company who also makes accutaine. The bad product got dumped on an unsuspecting market, cheap. Colombia has lots of zika, little microcephaly.
posted by Oyéah at 8:33 AM on February 13, 2016 [3 favorites]

I feel so sorry for the Olympic athletes. I think I would heave a huge sigh of relief if the Olympic Committee announced they were postponing the games. And I read somewhere it has been suggested. Between the Zika virus, malaria carrying mosquitoes and the polluted water, why would an athlete agree to go?
posted by pjsky at 8:44 AM on February 13, 2016 [1 favorite]

Or restated more precisely. Scientists think there is a connection to Zika, but there are other hypotheses that need to be considered. The most likely alternative is pesticide use. Scientists are still trying to understand the possible connection between Zika and microcephaly.
posted by humanfont at 8:55 AM on February 13, 2016 [1 favorite]

Thanks for this. The number of people who are "absolutely sure" about causes and effects related to Zika, and the media's eagerness to promote this speculation is more frightening than the disease itself.
posted by sneebler at 8:56 AM on February 13, 2016

I think is the source of the "Brazilian/Argentinian doctors think it's pesticides" story reported in "The Ecologist". It appears to be a diatribe against Monsanto and pesticides, and mostly consists of uninformed or irrelevant speculation. But that's where we are at the moment.
posted by sneebler at 9:09 AM on February 13, 2016 [1 favorite]

Zika virus found in fetal brain

posted by discopolo at 9:15 AM on February 13, 2016 [2 favorites]

I feel so sorry for the Olympic athletes. I think I would heave a huge sigh of relief if the Olympic Committee announced they were postponing the games.

Conspiracy Theory: This hypothesis is being pushed by the IOC to make sure the Olympic Games happen and they get their money.
posted by eriko at 9:20 AM on February 13, 2016 [1 favorite]

Like cockroaches, the conspiracy theorists suggesting the Zika virus outbreak is anything but a normal, naturally-occurring event have begun to come out of the woodwork. To be expected, the theories they're espousing make no sense scientifically, and each theory is incompatible with the others, but why should anyone expect that conspiracy theorists would actually use logic?

*sighs*

Well, at least people are taking the problem seriously now.

This is a really good point.

I'm not a doctor, epidemologist or public health professional. But my thinking is that part of the problem with how people are responding to this (cue the conspiracy theorists or relative freaking out on Facebook) is that people don't understand what neglected tropical diseases are, and many of which are orders of magnitude far worse than Zika:

Neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) are a diverse group of communicable diseases that prevail in tropical and subtropical conditions in 149 countries and affect more than one billion people, costing developing economies billions of dollars every year. They mainly affect populations living in poverty, without adequate sanitation and in close contact with infectious vectors and domestic animals and livestock.

Leaving aside the Zika/microcephaly connection for a moment, it just so happens that wealthy, developed-nation tourists ran or may run the risk of exposure to Zika (influx of tourists via the Olympics, areas where it's endemic being popular tropical vacation spots, etc.), so it's generating all sorts of attention from people who otherwise couldn't be arsed to think about these things.

2008 figures here, but it makes the point:

New drugs, vaccines, and diagnostics are regularly developed for diseases that affect wealthy countries; however, they are never more needed than for so-called neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). These are infectious diseases such as dengue and helminth infections that collectively afflict hundreds of millions of poor patients in developing countries.

The cost and time to develop new pharmaceutical products is substantial. Taking the cost of failure into account (an important factor in this high-risk area), each new diagnostic is likely to have development costs in the range of US$2 million to US$10 million spread over a development time of 3–5 years (averaging US$0.5 million to US$0.75 million per diagnostic per year). Each new drug is likely to cost in the low hundreds of millions spread over 7–12 years (averaging $15 million to $30 million per drug per year); however, we note that drug reformulations or new fixed-dose combinations of existing drugs can have particularly low risks and costs. And each vaccine can cost up to hundreds of millions invested over 12–15 years of development (averaging US$35 million to US$60 million per vaccine per year).26

However, the level of investment into research and development of new products for NTDs, as reported in the annual Global Funding of Innovation for Neglected Diseases (G-FINDER) surveys, shows that few NTD areas receive anywhere near the level of funding required; and that funding, when it is available, is rarely allocated in a manner likely to move products through the pipeline to patients.

The other thing, as a layperson, that I think I understand about mosquito-borne illnesses in particular, is that there's a direct tie-in to things like infrastructure (even simple things like screens in windows, elimination of open sewers and other sources of standing water in heavily populated areas, etc.). And infrastructure and public sanitation have a huge effect on the prevalence of other neglected diseases that aren't mosquito-borne as well.

So, really, the response to the relative or co-worker who's jamming your Facebook feed with freakouts over Zika is to direct them to some info on these other diseases, many of which have the same tie-ins. Let's pick one out of a hat...lymphatic filariasis:

About 1.23 billion people in 58 countries worldwide are threatened by lymphatic filariasis and require preventive largescale treatment, also known as preventive chemotheraphy, to stop its spread.

Over 120 million people are infected, with about 40 million disfigured and incapacitated by the disease.

posted by mandolin conspiracy at 9:39 AM on February 13, 2016 [22 favorites]

2008 figures here, but it makes the point:

Sorry, missed the edit window. Neglected to link the bit above.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 9:49 AM on February 13, 2016

NewScientist : Whole Zika genome recovered from brain of baby with microcephaly

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2077091-whole-zika-genome-recovered-from-brain-of-baby-with-microcephaly/
posted by Sintram at 10:00 AM on February 13, 2016 [6 favorites]

The real threat here is not from Zika, but from the green-hued doom that hangs over each and every outbreak. When confronted with new threats to human flourishing, we should respond with rationality and resolve, insisting that research and inquiry will see us through all challenges. We need to push the so-called ‘limits of the planet’s ecology’ further, rather than retreat into fear and uncertainty.

Does anyone know anything about Spiked? Just looking at their site they look like all kinds of libertarian awful. The linked article looks like it's just one of many weird axe-grindy pieces against international institutions (most notably the WHO), environmentalists, and advocates of social justice. So maybe take anything they say with a grain of salt.

Also, they have an article entitled, "How I Became a Feminist Victim". Charming.
posted by no mind at 11:14 AM on February 13, 2016 [1 favorite]

NewScientist : Whole Zika genome recovered from brain of baby with microcephaly

Well -- so what? Correlation is not causation, and it's not as if they're slicing up many healthy babies' brains looking for zika.
posted by Sys Rq at 11:15 AM on February 13, 2016 [1 favorite]

What you need to know about the Zika virus
posted by a lungful of dragon at 11:40 AM on February 13, 2016

Does anyone know anything about Spiked?

Oh God, Spiked, also known as the LM group also known as Living Marxism. Former Marxists turned libertarians. Politics of the latter, tactics of the former, like entryism. There is some thought they may have become accelerationists, dedicated to capitalism at all costs, in order to hasten the revolution.
posted by zabuni at 11:48 AM on February 13, 2016 [7 favorites]

Nature Feb 9th : - Proving Zika link to birth defects poses huge challenge. Obtaining conclusive evidence either way could take years, say researchers.
And from H5N1 Zika in Colombia: So far, without microcephaly.
posted by adamvasco at 11:49 AM on February 13, 2016 [2 favorites]

There's also a (more solid?) link between Zika and Guillain-Barré syndrome, which causes nerve damage. Microcephaly has retrospectively been associated with Zika in French Polynesia.

After completely dropping the ball on Ebola it's hard to take WHO seriously, but: Zika and microcephaly link confirmed "in weeks" says WHO.
posted by BungaDunga at 12:14 PM on February 13, 2016 [2 favorites]

Zika is the canary in the coal mine folks. 2 million years of adaptation or so in the everyday fauna skill set and a warming world adds up to many many of these "events" and the mere fact humans are also around and could be impacted does not enter into the main result.

Organisms will go forward, we might get sick [Zita, Dengue, Ebola], we might get bothered [boas in the swamps, new [to this latitude] and more aggressive ants, more shark attacks] and we might lose the battle entirely [ 90% bee colony collapse, ocean acidification taking out the food chain there, or a good old nasty war if Asia gets hit with a famine of unknown duration].

So , Well, at least people are taking the problem seriously now. is a good thing.

Late of course. Comments in these threads also harbor the classic obfuscatory take on the minutia of events made famous by the tobacco folks for 50 years about their health risk denials.

When do we start believing Al Gore?

***Pulls pin tosses grenade ***
posted by Freedomboy at 12:17 PM on February 13, 2016

Oh for heaven's sake. We're safer, healthier, live longer and are more secure than we've ever, ever, ever been in the history of our species, and that's including those of us in the so-called third world. You've got no conception of what life has been like for humans in the past at subsistence level: intense, typically riven with grief, and short.
posted by glasseyes at 12:56 PM on February 13, 2016 [8 favorites]

***Pulls pin tosses grenade ***

Meh.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 12:57 PM on February 13, 2016 [4 favorites]

Oh for heaven's sake. We're safer, healthier, live longer and are more secure than we've ever, ever, ever been in the history of our species, and that's including those of us in the so-called third world. You've got no conception of what life has been like for humans in the past at subsistence level: intense, typically riven with grief, and short.

Past Current performance does not necessarily predict future results.
posted by MikeKD at 8:23 PM on February 13, 2016 [1 favorite]

The other thing, as a layperson, that I think I understand about mosquito-borne illnesses in particular, is that there's a direct tie-in to things like infrastructure (even simple things like screens in windows, elimination of open sewers and other sources of standing water in heavily populated areas, etc.). And infrastructure and public sanitation have a huge effect on the prevalence of other neglected diseases that aren't mosquito-borne as well.

This is well worth emphasising: malaria was eradicated from England during a period where the climate was actually getting warmer and so more hospitable for transmission. While treatment getting cheaper was a part of this, infrastructure in the form of marsh drainage and better housing played a major role.

And increased vigilance always brings up increased cases of disease, especially in places which may have a poorer healthcare infrastructure. That doesn't mean that Zika hasn't caused birth defects, it just makes associating cause and effect much more difficult.

(Also mentioned upthread were thalidomide and methotrexate - both are associated with significant birth defects, but I don't think to microcephaly specifically. I'm happy to be corrected with appropriate citations if I'm wrong on this)
posted by Vortisaur at 4:43 AM on February 14, 2016

7000 cases of zika in Cabo Verde. No microcephaly reported.
posted by adamvasco at 4:18 PM on February 15, 2016

^sneebler here is a little more about the Larvicide Manufactured By Sumitomo; The chemical is known as Pyriproxyfen.
posted by adamvasco at 4:42 AM on February 16, 2016

Zika virus, microcephaly, and calls to bring back DDT
posted by the man of twists and turns at 4:17 PM on February 16, 2016 [2 favorites]

And now we have the pushback.

Huffpo: Don't believe the Monsanto zika connection

Sounds like we're still at a state of confusion without any real facts.
posted by Karaage at 4:31 PM on February 16, 2016 [1 favorite]