BREXIT the Movie
May 15, 2016 3:08 AM Subscribe
BREXIT the Movie full length (1:10) a crowdfunded film making the case for Britain to leave the EU. Some short extracts: Fish, Gravy train, German miracle, Living regulated lives, Life outside the EU, Trading regulations.
I counter this with 1h10m of Michael Gove's face.
posted by cromagnon at 3:31 AM on May 15, 2016 [14 favorites]
posted by cromagnon at 3:31 AM on May 15, 2016 [14 favorites]
I heard a fun argument in the pub last night that the big problem with the UK's membership of the EU is that we don't have much influence there because we keep treating the European elections like a joke and sending utter gobshites like Nigel Farrage to represent us there. Unsurprisingly the other MEPs then tend to vote against our representatives.
posted by simonw at 3:33 AM on May 15, 2016 [12 favorites]
posted by simonw at 3:33 AM on May 15, 2016 [12 favorites]
Unsurprisingly the other MEPs then tend to vote against our representatives.
So, what have those other MEPs done that is beneficial to the populace of the UK or any other EU country?
posted by veedubya at 3:41 AM on May 15, 2016
So, what have those other MEPs done that is beneficial to the populace of the UK or any other EU country?
posted by veedubya at 3:41 AM on May 15, 2016
Produced and directed by Martin Durkin, of 'The Great Global Warming Swindle' fame. Which, well, if that's the way you handle a complex and often misunderstood scientific subject - a documentary that gets massively criticised by huge numbers of scientists who actually work on the issue for being inaccurate, misleading and propagandistic, up to and including having Ofcom complaints made one of the scientists you interviewed in the actual film upheld against you - I'm not hugely inclined to trust you about complex and often misunderstood political subjects, either.
posted by Catseye at 3:47 AM on May 15, 2016 [50 favorites]
posted by Catseye at 3:47 AM on May 15, 2016 [50 favorites]
As someone pointed out - for Brexit: Marine Le Pen, Putin, Trump. Boris.
Any questions?
posted by Devonian at 3:55 AM on May 15, 2016 [50 favorites]
Any questions?
posted by Devonian at 3:55 AM on May 15, 2016 [50 favorites]
So all these bodies are as "democratic" as the elected official of the member states (roughly). I don't understand how that is giving up democracy?
This is true. But it's really important for those of us who are vehemently opposed to Brexit to recognise that the institutions of the EU need to be better. For example, the Parliament needs to have the right of legislative initiative, because there is too little direct democracy in the EU. But we also need better public debating of significant Commission initiated legislation - both in the Parliament and in the press. The BCC would seem to be a good vehicle for the latter in the UK, and it would be relatively easy to require it to feature more prominent and complex EU politics strands - The prominence could be managed by the main TV news, and the complexity via Radio 4 and online. The World Service could even help out other countries too!
The EU is not any more antidemocratic, at its heart, than any other compromise we make about government of complex societies. I think it is certainly less fundamentally flawed than the British constitutional morass. But, even so, making it better matters, because our future, in a fragile and intimately connected world, is going to require supranational institutions. We need them to be the very best they can, even though the reality (at least for the conceivable future) will always be flawed.
posted by howfar at 3:57 AM on May 15, 2016 [11 favorites]
This is true. But it's really important for those of us who are vehemently opposed to Brexit to recognise that the institutions of the EU need to be better. For example, the Parliament needs to have the right of legislative initiative, because there is too little direct democracy in the EU. But we also need better public debating of significant Commission initiated legislation - both in the Parliament and in the press. The BCC would seem to be a good vehicle for the latter in the UK, and it would be relatively easy to require it to feature more prominent and complex EU politics strands - The prominence could be managed by the main TV news, and the complexity via Radio 4 and online. The World Service could even help out other countries too!
The EU is not any more antidemocratic, at its heart, than any other compromise we make about government of complex societies. I think it is certainly less fundamentally flawed than the British constitutional morass. But, even so, making it better matters, because our future, in a fragile and intimately connected world, is going to require supranational institutions. We need them to be the very best they can, even though the reality (at least for the conceivable future) will always be flawed.
posted by howfar at 3:57 AM on May 15, 2016 [11 favorites]
I wonder if there is actually a case for Brexit ? I will never know, as the only people who seem to speak in favour of it are narcissistic liars. Got as far as Melanie Phillips about 40 seconds in.
posted by devious truculent and unreliable at 3:58 AM on May 15, 2016 [9 favorites]
posted by devious truculent and unreliable at 3:58 AM on May 15, 2016 [9 favorites]
Point of order on the "Life Outside The EU" one - they address how much more free trade Switzerland has and how much more trading Switzerland does then the UK. But nowhere do they address just what it IS the UK would be exporting, compared to what Switzerland exports. I suspect "what goods you offer to export" has rather more impact on trade than does "membership in the EU".
And anyway, I prefer the counter-arguement video supporting the UK staying in the EU, largely because Patrick Stewart is in it and swears.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 4:00 AM on May 15, 2016 [17 favorites]
And anyway, I prefer the counter-arguement video supporting the UK staying in the EU, largely because Patrick Stewart is in it and swears.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 4:00 AM on May 15, 2016 [17 favorites]
the only people who seem to speak in favour of it are narcissistic liars. Got as far as Melanie Phillips about 40 seconds in.
posted by devious truculent and unreliable
I wonder what Morrissey thinks of Brexit...
posted by howfar at 4:00 AM on May 15, 2016 [2 favorites]
posted by devious truculent and unreliable
I wonder what Morrissey thinks of Brexit...
posted by howfar at 4:00 AM on May 15, 2016 [2 favorites]
It's just funny to see concerns about democracy from a country that still has a voting system that ISN'T proportional representation.
posted by dutchbint at 4:08 AM on May 15, 2016 [11 favorites]
posted by dutchbint at 4:08 AM on May 15, 2016 [11 favorites]
The UK has a monarch as head of state, an upper chamber of parliament that's full of hereditary, politically selected or religious members, and a lower chamber of parliament elected by First Past The Post. Something that doesn't seem to bother most Brexiters enthusing about democracy.
The biggest problem with saying that the UK can be like Switzerland, Norway or Singapore is that we've got a lot fewer Swiss, Norwegian or Singaporean people than those countries. The UK is full of British people, who do things differently. It's as silly as claiming that by staying in the EU, the UK would magically become like Finland.
posted by BinaryApe at 4:10 AM on May 15, 2016 [19 favorites]
The biggest problem with saying that the UK can be like Switzerland, Norway or Singapore is that we've got a lot fewer Swiss, Norwegian or Singaporean people than those countries. The UK is full of British people, who do things differently. It's as silly as claiming that by staying in the EU, the UK would magically become like Finland.
posted by BinaryApe at 4:10 AM on May 15, 2016 [19 favorites]
Oops, snap!
In answer to veedubya, I like that the UK's beaches are no longer covered in shit.
Stuff like freedom of movement, free trade, lower roaming charges, etc are nice, but I can't go to a beach without remembering the clean beach ratings and how much cleaner beaches are. Worth remembering too that the UK fought to keep its right to pump honest British excrement all over its own beaches.
posted by BinaryApe at 4:15 AM on May 15, 2016 [25 favorites]
In answer to veedubya, I like that the UK's beaches are no longer covered in shit.
Stuff like freedom of movement, free trade, lower roaming charges, etc are nice, but I can't go to a beach without remembering the clean beach ratings and how much cleaner beaches are. Worth remembering too that the UK fought to keep its right to pump honest British excrement all over its own beaches.
posted by BinaryApe at 4:15 AM on May 15, 2016 [25 favorites]
BinaryApe, I agree that those are good things. My question is, what specifically has the EU parliament done that makes the EU a better place?
posted by veedubya at 4:19 AM on May 15, 2016
posted by veedubya at 4:19 AM on May 15, 2016
My question is, what specifically has the EU parliament done that makes the EU a better place?
Lower roaming charges are a specific example of action by the Parliament.
posted by howfar at 4:41 AM on May 15, 2016 [3 favorites]
Lower roaming charges are a specific example of action by the Parliament.
posted by howfar at 4:41 AM on May 15, 2016 [3 favorites]
This could be an opening number for a Dinesh DiSouza film festival! Get out your popcorn!
posted by Steakfrites at 4:52 AM on May 15, 2016 [1 favorite]
posted by Steakfrites at 4:52 AM on May 15, 2016 [1 favorite]
Wait what - you all still believe that GB will exit europe as a result of a referendum? You should ask us Dutch what happens when you vote a certain way on a referendum... It'll get ignored in a politically expedient way.
posted by DreamerFi at 4:56 AM on May 15, 2016 [2 favorites]
posted by DreamerFi at 4:56 AM on May 15, 2016 [2 favorites]
I doubt that the total amount saved by reduced roaming charges would be anything more than a rounding error in the annual £1.3 billion cost of the EU parliament.
posted by veedubya at 4:59 AM on May 15, 2016
posted by veedubya at 4:59 AM on May 15, 2016
At the end of this telegraph article with an unprintable headline is an interesting one page summary of all the arguments for and against the vote on G. B. exiting the E. U.
(no idea why they would not provide a separate link to the list)
posted by bukvich at 5:25 AM on May 15, 2016 [1 favorite]
(no idea why they would not provide a separate link to the list)
posted by bukvich at 5:25 AM on May 15, 2016 [1 favorite]
I doubt that the total amount saved by reduced roaming charges would be anything more than a rounding error in the annual £1.3 billion cost of the EU parliament.
From the linked article:
"One-fifth of UK mobile users travelling to the EU in the last year have faced higher than usual bills for usage, collectively amounting to £573m, according to data from Uswitch."
44%, for the UK alone, is significantly more than a rounding error.
I am not entirely convinced that you're engaging in this conversation in good faith.
posted by howfar at 5:41 AM on May 15, 2016 [20 favorites]
From the linked article:
"One-fifth of UK mobile users travelling to the EU in the last year have faced higher than usual bills for usage, collectively amounting to £573m, according to data from Uswitch."
44%, for the UK alone, is significantly more than a rounding error.
I am not entirely convinced that you're engaging in this conversation in good faith.
posted by howfar at 5:41 AM on May 15, 2016 [20 favorites]
The odds heavily favour "Stay"; there hasn't been any significant movement for a while now.
I currently stay in a small market town in England where casual racism is endemic; you've only got to, well, wander around for a short while and listen, to confirm this.
Last week, I asked a Leave campaigner who was being tiresomely loud in the market square to give me three reasons why. The first: "Migrants are a drain on the economy!". I pointed out that the data proved exactly the opposite and they produced a net gain.
He huffed at this, thought, then said "Britain is better out than in!". I pointed out that this was a slogan, not a reason, and Britain is not the same as the UK. He paused for a while, then grinned. Okay, I thought, he's come up with something persuasive. Maybe with facts and references.
Wrong.
"Princess Diana died on the continent. If she had stayed in Britain, she'd still be alive."
I couldn't respond to that. Actually that's not true; there were some responses flicking through my head, but there were children nearby and it would not have been right if they heard them. So I left grinning man, who was probably under the impression that he had "won" and did things that were far more useful. On the plus side, it did remind me to check to register to vote so - if he's actually capable of making a mark - my vote at least will cancel out his.
I look forward to emigrating from this often embarrassing place.
posted by Wordshore at 5:55 AM on May 15, 2016 [32 favorites]
I currently stay in a small market town in England where casual racism is endemic; you've only got to, well, wander around for a short while and listen, to confirm this.
Last week, I asked a Leave campaigner who was being tiresomely loud in the market square to give me three reasons why. The first: "Migrants are a drain on the economy!". I pointed out that the data proved exactly the opposite and they produced a net gain.
He huffed at this, thought, then said "Britain is better out than in!". I pointed out that this was a slogan, not a reason, and Britain is not the same as the UK. He paused for a while, then grinned. Okay, I thought, he's come up with something persuasive. Maybe with facts and references.
Wrong.
"Princess Diana died on the continent. If she had stayed in Britain, she'd still be alive."
I couldn't respond to that. Actually that's not true; there were some responses flicking through my head, but there were children nearby and it would not have been right if they heard them. So I left grinning man, who was probably under the impression that he had "won" and did things that were far more useful. On the plus side, it did remind me to check to register to vote so - if he's actually capable of making a mark - my vote at least will cancel out his.
I look forward to emigrating from this often embarrassing place.
posted by Wordshore at 5:55 AM on May 15, 2016 [32 favorites]
What I particularly like about the roaming charge removal is that it was done against the lobbying of the telcos, but with significant grass-roots support from activists. It took a long time, because there isn't one European telco regulator but dozens, but it happened and lots of people have directly and measurably benefited.
Plus, roaming charges are almost criminal extortion.
So, yesh Mish Moneypenny, Europe can work for the individual through democratic processes.
posted by Devonian at 6:01 AM on May 15, 2016 [4 favorites]
Plus, roaming charges are almost criminal extortion.
So, yesh Mish Moneypenny, Europe can work for the individual through democratic processes.
posted by Devonian at 6:01 AM on May 15, 2016 [4 favorites]
Europe can work for the individual through democratic processes
For all its faults, it's important to remember that where consumer rights, workers rights and environmental issues are concerned a Conservative party in power with nobody to reign them in would be a disaster.
We are now realising just how much the Lib Dems were able to keep some of the worst excesses of Tory policy at bay and I think that were we to vote to leave we would see all of the worker, consumer & environmental rights that the EU are responsible for putting in place rolled back and there would be nothing to stop them asset-stripping everything to the bone.
posted by jontyjago at 6:03 AM on May 15, 2016 [12 favorites]
For all its faults, it's important to remember that where consumer rights, workers rights and environmental issues are concerned a Conservative party in power with nobody to reign them in would be a disaster.
We are now realising just how much the Lib Dems were able to keep some of the worst excesses of Tory policy at bay and I think that were we to vote to leave we would see all of the worker, consumer & environmental rights that the EU are responsible for putting in place rolled back and there would be nothing to stop them asset-stripping everything to the bone.
posted by jontyjago at 6:03 AM on May 15, 2016 [12 favorites]
What many of the Brexiters really want is a return to the days when Britain was a global power, trading with and getting rich from its empire, with a strong manufacturing base, hardly any immigrants, a 'special relationship' with America, and treating continental Europe as a minor distraction.
Leaving the EU won't bring any of that back, however. A large section of the right-wing press in the UK is fixated on immigrants, but
a) the majority of immigrants in the UK come from former Empire/Commonwealth countries rather than the EU.
b) the EU considers freedom of movement and free trade to be linked, so countries that want to trade freely with the EU like Switzerland/Norway/Iceland have to allow EU citizens to live and work in their countries.
c) it's a reciprocal thing, and there are lots and lots of UK citizens living in Spain and France who might lose that right if the UK pulls up the drawbridge.
posted by kersplunk at 6:06 AM on May 15, 2016 [6 favorites]
Leaving the EU won't bring any of that back, however. A large section of the right-wing press in the UK is fixated on immigrants, but
a) the majority of immigrants in the UK come from former Empire/Commonwealth countries rather than the EU.
b) the EU considers freedom of movement and free trade to be linked, so countries that want to trade freely with the EU like Switzerland/Norway/Iceland have to allow EU citizens to live and work in their countries.
c) it's a reciprocal thing, and there are lots and lots of UK citizens living in Spain and France who might lose that right if the UK pulls up the drawbridge.
posted by kersplunk at 6:06 AM on May 15, 2016 [6 favorites]
I watched the Fish section linked above and its a bit odd that not once do they even mention WHY the EU has introduced Fishing Quotas. Over-fishing is not mentioned at all. instead the EU fishing quotas are presented as some random, irrational, and arbitrary decision by "them" the "other".
This is no doubt indicative of the program as a whole. One-sided portrayal of rather complicated issues particularly where there are environmental issues in play.
posted by mary8nne at 6:07 AM on May 15, 2016 [13 favorites]
This is no doubt indicative of the program as a whole. One-sided portrayal of rather complicated issues particularly where there are environmental issues in play.
posted by mary8nne at 6:07 AM on May 15, 2016 [13 favorites]
The EU should embrace Brexit. As difficult as it will be for the EU and Britain, we need to figure out just what the value - financially, social, political and cultural - of EU is for everyone involved. I want to believe that EU membership results in far more benefits than drawbacks for individual states and the EU as a whole but I rather know that that's the case.
posted by Foci for Analysis at 6:30 AM on May 15, 2016
posted by Foci for Analysis at 6:30 AM on May 15, 2016
What many of the Brexiters really want is a return to the days when Britain was a global power...
make Britain Great again?
posted by ennui.bz at 6:50 AM on May 15, 2016 [17 favorites]
make Britain Great again?
posted by ennui.bz at 6:50 AM on May 15, 2016 [17 favorites]
The EU is not just good, but absolutely necessary for the environment. Environmental issues cross borders, and no single country can make meaningful decisions alone, whether they about over-fishing, agriculture, air-pollution and water pollution.
Same with consumer rights and food and product safety. And with human rights and workers' rights. EU is not perfect, but in many, many cases, the EU standards are higher than those of the member states, and secure a higher quality of life for most citizens than they would have had without the EU.
posted by mumimor at 6:52 AM on May 15, 2016 [11 favorites]
Same with consumer rights and food and product safety. And with human rights and workers' rights. EU is not perfect, but in many, many cases, the EU standards are higher than those of the member states, and secure a higher quality of life for most citizens than they would have had without the EU.
posted by mumimor at 6:52 AM on May 15, 2016 [11 favorites]
UK Staying in the EU? But UK is barely in the EU now as it is, having so many "derogations". Now I work inside the EU institutions and I know first-hand what a mess they are, being full of people who want to justify their own 10k EUR/month existences, but in my ideal society there would be no national governments, there would be a strong regional level, and a coordinated EU level.
We need a common tax, defence, immigration and about every other policy, or else we are just a pawn manipulated by the US global interest...
posted by Laotic at 7:00 AM on May 15, 2016 [8 favorites]
We need a common tax, defence, immigration and about every other policy, or else we are just a pawn manipulated by the US global interest...
posted by Laotic at 7:00 AM on May 15, 2016 [8 favorites]
I wonder if there is actually a case for Brexit ? I will never know, as the only people who seem to speak in favour of it are narcissistic liars. Got as far as Melanie Phillips about 40 seconds in.
Yeah, the debate is dominated by right-wingers. But there are centrists and left-wingers with Leave positions. It's interested to see how polarized this debate is, especially on the left, as there is only a thin sliver of politics stopping Corbyn from basically being a Leaver too. If the Labour leader came out in favour of leaving, the tone of the debate would be utterly different. No doubt the discussion on Metafilter would alter too.
Most Leaver arguments leave me cold, and I find that my own position isn't the same as theirs. I'm happy that the CFP is needed, but I'm againt the CAP as it is. There's no such nuance in the mainstream Leavers as it is.
posted by Emma May Smith at 7:05 AM on May 15, 2016 [3 favorites]
Yeah, the debate is dominated by right-wingers. But there are centrists and left-wingers with Leave positions. It's interested to see how polarized this debate is, especially on the left, as there is only a thin sliver of politics stopping Corbyn from basically being a Leaver too. If the Labour leader came out in favour of leaving, the tone of the debate would be utterly different. No doubt the discussion on Metafilter would alter too.
Most Leaver arguments leave me cold, and I find that my own position isn't the same as theirs. I'm happy that the CFP is needed, but I'm againt the CAP as it is. There's no such nuance in the mainstream Leavers as it is.
posted by Emma May Smith at 7:05 AM on May 15, 2016 [3 favorites]
I think we'll find there a quite a few Shy Leavers
posted by A189Nut at 7:26 AM on May 15, 2016 [3 favorites]
posted by A189Nut at 7:26 AM on May 15, 2016 [3 favorites]
The EU is not just good, but absolutely necessary for the environment.
And not just within Europe! It's difficult to overstate just how positive an impact RoHS has had outside of the EU, reducing toxic waste dumped abroad and vastly improving availability of lead-free parts worldwide. In the long term it's been great for the electronics industry as well, but it never would have happened through self-regulation.
posted by phooky at 7:28 AM on May 15, 2016 [8 favorites]
And not just within Europe! It's difficult to overstate just how positive an impact RoHS has had outside of the EU, reducing toxic waste dumped abroad and vastly improving availability of lead-free parts worldwide. In the long term it's been great for the electronics industry as well, but it never would have happened through self-regulation.
posted by phooky at 7:28 AM on May 15, 2016 [8 favorites]
Hehe I love the clip of EU-regulated man waking up and going through his regulated day, oh the horror of 52 regulations "related to" bread. Oh but it must be even more than 52, search in the EU regulations database for the term "bread" and look how many matches, how crazy is that! So many rules! Crushing business! Bakers are going bankrupt all over Europe because they can’t keep up with all the rules! You can’t even get a decent baguette in Paris these days! Because of the EU!
It’s not like pre-EU the UK itself had even stricter regulations on bread, or any of the 28 member countries had regulations of their own any product and and at some point needed some standardization anyway for reasons of trade, nah, it’s all an impossible tangle of useless rules made up for no reason by the EU.
There are valid concerns and arguments against the EU but that must be one of the weakest. Funny how in member states with economies in much worse shape than the UK the complaints you hear from businesses struggling are about either austerity measures and local taxation or global developments, not European regulations. That seems to be an obsession mainly for the Brits.
And Switzerland as example of a country doing well outside the EU? sure, it must be all because of being outside the EU...
I didn’t even get what the parallel is supposed to be between a post-EU future and the "miracle of post-war Germany", but it’s hilarious that video looks like pro-German propaganda.
posted by bitteschoen at 7:34 AM on May 15, 2016 [7 favorites]
It’s not like pre-EU the UK itself had even stricter regulations on bread, or any of the 28 member countries had regulations of their own any product and and at some point needed some standardization anyway for reasons of trade, nah, it’s all an impossible tangle of useless rules made up for no reason by the EU.
There are valid concerns and arguments against the EU but that must be one of the weakest. Funny how in member states with economies in much worse shape than the UK the complaints you hear from businesses struggling are about either austerity measures and local taxation or global developments, not European regulations. That seems to be an obsession mainly for the Brits.
And Switzerland as example of a country doing well outside the EU? sure, it must be all because of being outside the EU...
I didn’t even get what the parallel is supposed to be between a post-EU future and the "miracle of post-war Germany", but it’s hilarious that video looks like pro-German propaganda.
posted by bitteschoen at 7:34 AM on May 15, 2016 [7 favorites]
I watched the German Miracle one. It took all of 5 seconds to realize this is libertarian bullshit. I'm curious if there is a more balanced view, or real assessment of what the impacts would be.
Whatever this is, it would fit perfectly on Brietbart or Drudge Report over here in the states.
posted by herda05 at 8:05 AM on May 15, 2016 [3 favorites]
Whatever this is, it would fit perfectly on Brietbart or Drudge Report over here in the states.
posted by herda05 at 8:05 AM on May 15, 2016 [3 favorites]
What many of the Brexiters really want is a return to the days when Britain was a global power...
make Britain Great again?
The only way I can see this happening is if they find a way to make the rest of the world much worse. Which could explain exporting Tony Blair.
posted by srboisvert at 8:46 AM on May 15, 2016 [1 favorite]
make Britain Great again?
The only way I can see this happening is if they find a way to make the rest of the world much worse. Which could explain exporting Tony Blair.
posted by srboisvert at 8:46 AM on May 15, 2016 [1 favorite]
The lack of fish in the ocean is God's punishment for taking environmentalism seriously. If we just did more fishing, cut down more forests, and exercised dominion as He intended, we would have all the fish we ever need. Also loaves. Cheese? Wait not that one that's just a thing from that silly movie.
posted by idiopath at 8:59 AM on May 15, 2016
posted by idiopath at 8:59 AM on May 15, 2016
I think we'll find there a quite a few Shy Leavers
There is a difference between online and telephone polling for the referendum. Online shows a dead heat, or even a small Leave lead. Telephone often shows a moderate to big Remain lead. It is generally believed that online polls oversay UKIP support, so the same must be true of Leave. The effect could, however, by shy Leavers as you hint at.
I personally don't know. And I don't know if it will be that important anyway. I suspect that the main influence on the outcome will be undecideds breaking for the status quo. I don't blame folk for doing that. I think the way the EU has dealt with various crises over the last few years suggests the status quo isn't working, but the alternative to the status quo is unsure. Mainstream Leavers don't have a good narrative on what comes next. It's the inverse of the Scottish independence referendum, where the future narrative was good but the status quo wasn't really all that bad.
posted by Emma May Smith at 9:04 AM on May 15, 2016
There is a difference between online and telephone polling for the referendum. Online shows a dead heat, or even a small Leave lead. Telephone often shows a moderate to big Remain lead. It is generally believed that online polls oversay UKIP support, so the same must be true of Leave. The effect could, however, by shy Leavers as you hint at.
I personally don't know. And I don't know if it will be that important anyway. I suspect that the main influence on the outcome will be undecideds breaking for the status quo. I don't blame folk for doing that. I think the way the EU has dealt with various crises over the last few years suggests the status quo isn't working, but the alternative to the status quo is unsure. Mainstream Leavers don't have a good narrative on what comes next. It's the inverse of the Scottish independence referendum, where the future narrative was good but the status quo wasn't really all that bad.
posted by Emma May Smith at 9:04 AM on May 15, 2016
I think we'll find there a quite a few Shy Leavers
You might be right. But the BPC post-mortem on last year's dodgy polls suggests that the problems were with sampling errors, not the theorised "Shy Tory" effect (quick summary of the report, here from UK Polling Report). But sampling is even more difficult for a referendum than for a general election, so all possibilities, between clear leave and clear remain, are open. I think the best guess is a marginal remain vote, but I don't think that there's any reason for anyone to say they're confident of that (or anything).
posted by howfar at 9:32 AM on May 15, 2016
You might be right. But the BPC post-mortem on last year's dodgy polls suggests that the problems were with sampling errors, not the theorised "Shy Tory" effect (quick summary of the report, here from UK Polling Report). But sampling is even more difficult for a referendum than for a general election, so all possibilities, between clear leave and clear remain, are open. I think the best guess is a marginal remain vote, but I don't think that there's any reason for anyone to say they're confident of that (or anything).
posted by howfar at 9:32 AM on May 15, 2016
I counter this with 1h10m of Michael Gove's face.
Not just Gove - Gove, Duncan Smith, Johnson, Grayling, Whittingdale. Everything they touch turns to fucked up beyond repair. It's not altogether clear to me what Priti Patel has fucked up, but given that she's Employment Minister, and looking at the state of employment in this country, it's fair to assume she's left the usual trail of scorched earth and ruined lives.
Whatever the non-Right arguments against the EU (in the grasp of TTIP) might be (and they're not unconvincing), it would be insane to hand the reins over to these lunatics, and they obviously have a plan they'll put into action in the event of a Leave vote. It's not so much that they couldn't organise a piss-up in a brewery as that the first thing they'd do is sell the brewery to property developers to be turned into unsellable luxury flats and pocket the proceeds. Then they would sneer at the people who were expecting them to organise the party for having unrealistic expectations in assuming they'd competently execute the one job they were given.
It's true that their opponents (Cameron, Hunt, Osborne) are more than capable of fucking things over in their own way, but I'm not altogether convinced that the campaign they're mounting in favour of Remain is part of a big plan to fuck up everything completely in the way that the Leave campaign is.
In any case, these are all ludicrous wreckers, and that they are in the ascendency is equal measures appalling tragedy and cosmic joke. Ha, ha, fucking ha.
posted by Grangousier at 9:44 AM on May 15, 2016 [5 favorites]
Not just Gove - Gove, Duncan Smith, Johnson, Grayling, Whittingdale. Everything they touch turns to fucked up beyond repair. It's not altogether clear to me what Priti Patel has fucked up, but given that she's Employment Minister, and looking at the state of employment in this country, it's fair to assume she's left the usual trail of scorched earth and ruined lives.
Whatever the non-Right arguments against the EU (in the grasp of TTIP) might be (and they're not unconvincing), it would be insane to hand the reins over to these lunatics, and they obviously have a plan they'll put into action in the event of a Leave vote. It's not so much that they couldn't organise a piss-up in a brewery as that the first thing they'd do is sell the brewery to property developers to be turned into unsellable luxury flats and pocket the proceeds. Then they would sneer at the people who were expecting them to organise the party for having unrealistic expectations in assuming they'd competently execute the one job they were given.
It's true that their opponents (Cameron, Hunt, Osborne) are more than capable of fucking things over in their own way, but I'm not altogether convinced that the campaign they're mounting in favour of Remain is part of a big plan to fuck up everything completely in the way that the Leave campaign is.
In any case, these are all ludicrous wreckers, and that they are in the ascendency is equal measures appalling tragedy and cosmic joke. Ha, ha, fucking ha.
posted by Grangousier at 9:44 AM on May 15, 2016 [5 favorites]
I wonder what Morrissey thinks of Brexit...
I bet he wants out, but at least he is entertaining. Vote:Leave's tub-thumpers are ugly and mean-spirited. You wouldnt want to agree with them about anything.
(Like the great man I also love being noticed, so cheers, howler.)
posted by devious truculent and unreliable at 9:59 AM on May 15, 2016
I bet he wants out, but at least he is entertaining. Vote:Leave's tub-thumpers are ugly and mean-spirited. You wouldnt want to agree with them about anything.
(Like the great man I also love being noticed, so cheers, howler.)
posted by devious truculent and unreliable at 9:59 AM on May 15, 2016
Maybe this was oversimplified, but wasn't one of the biggest reasons for forming the EU to create disincentives for the next Eurosquabblefest to escalate into another World War? And isn't that the very reason some of the more marginal economies like Greece and Turkey were invited to join? I seem to recall a fair amount of hand-wringing over this issue a few months ago when the issue was a possible GRexit.
posted by Bringer Tom at 10:13 AM on May 15, 2016 [1 favorite]
posted by Bringer Tom at 10:13 AM on May 15, 2016 [1 favorite]
Maybe this was oversimplified, but wasn't one of the biggest reasons for forming the EU to create disincentives for the next Eurosquabblefest to escalate into another World War? And isn't that the very reason some of the more marginal economies like Greece and Turkey were invited to join? I seem to recall a fair amount of hand-wringing over this issue a few months ago when the issue was a possible GRexit.
Some elements of what would become the EU were founded with the goal of inmeshing strategic industries in Europe. The idea being that war would become harder. I think further expansions occurred for various reasons. Certainly Greece and Turkey were rewarded for being good allies, and the proposed membership of Turkey would likely lapse without US pressure. Other countries in the east were similar, but by the time they applied there was also a notion of a European ideal which the EU embodied.
The problem is, as Haas's neofunctionalism posited, that once set in motion the EU (and its forerunners) provided their own logic for further growth and deepening of powers. I don't know that we've got to the point where we're at now with any real plan. Were the EU a superstate the situation would, ironically, be better as decisions and responsibility for them would have a sounder basis. But we're in a position where Germany--simply because of its size not through any conspiracy--is responsible for dealing with crises which arise. They've dealt with them in ways which don't give me hope: austerity, Greek debt restructuring, dodgy deals with Erdogan.
The UK, due to its position and derogations, has avoided the worst of what hit the EU over the last eight years. But we're lucky and might not be next time. I think that for all the good the EU may bring, there's a fundamental unsoundness in it which will only keep being problematic. Were Greece leaving the EU I think a lot more folk here would be sympathetic. I cannot see why leaving in a position of relative strength is a worse proposition.
posted by Emma May Smith at 11:20 AM on May 15, 2016 [2 favorites]
Some elements of what would become the EU were founded with the goal of inmeshing strategic industries in Europe. The idea being that war would become harder. I think further expansions occurred for various reasons. Certainly Greece and Turkey were rewarded for being good allies, and the proposed membership of Turkey would likely lapse without US pressure. Other countries in the east were similar, but by the time they applied there was also a notion of a European ideal which the EU embodied.
The problem is, as Haas's neofunctionalism posited, that once set in motion the EU (and its forerunners) provided their own logic for further growth and deepening of powers. I don't know that we've got to the point where we're at now with any real plan. Were the EU a superstate the situation would, ironically, be better as decisions and responsibility for them would have a sounder basis. But we're in a position where Germany--simply because of its size not through any conspiracy--is responsible for dealing with crises which arise. They've dealt with them in ways which don't give me hope: austerity, Greek debt restructuring, dodgy deals with Erdogan.
The UK, due to its position and derogations, has avoided the worst of what hit the EU over the last eight years. But we're lucky and might not be next time. I think that for all the good the EU may bring, there's a fundamental unsoundness in it which will only keep being problematic. Were Greece leaving the EU I think a lot more folk here would be sympathetic. I cannot see why leaving in a position of relative strength is a worse proposition.
posted by Emma May Smith at 11:20 AM on May 15, 2016 [2 favorites]
Wait what - you all still believe that GB will exit europe as a result of a referendum? You should ask us Dutch what happens when you vote a certain way on a referendum... It'll get ignored in a politically expedient way.
I think we all know how much British Democracy is actually worth.
posted by Navelgazer at 11:38 AM on May 15, 2016 [3 favorites]
I think we all know how much British Democracy is actually worth.
posted by Navelgazer at 11:38 AM on May 15, 2016 [3 favorites]
MAKE BRITAIN GREAT AGAIN
SHIT ON BEACHES NOW
posted by benzenedream at 1:38 PM on May 15, 2016 [2 favorites]
SHIT ON BEACHES NOW
posted by benzenedream at 1:38 PM on May 15, 2016 [2 favorites]
Jenny Jones, prominent member of the Green Party, is pro Brexit and is now putting her head above the parapet citing austerity and TTIP, despite her party lining up with all the constant BBC/Labour/Cameron howling.
posted by Coda Tronca at 2:20 PM on May 15, 2016
posted by Coda Tronca at 2:20 PM on May 15, 2016
Active boycott.
I don't mean this disrespectfully, but that seems to be, in essence, the same unshifting, ahistorical Trotskyist analysis that has been offered up in response to everything by a fraction of the left for generations. I do not for an instant doubt the necessity of international solidarity between normal people, but disengaging from practical politics and letting the right run everything while we plan our revolution has never, ever, been the answer, and it's not the answer today either.
posted by howfar at 2:59 PM on May 15, 2016 [6 favorites]
I don't mean this disrespectfully, but that seems to be, in essence, the same unshifting, ahistorical Trotskyist analysis that has been offered up in response to everything by a fraction of the left for generations. I do not for an instant doubt the necessity of international solidarity between normal people, but disengaging from practical politics and letting the right run everything while we plan our revolution has never, ever, been the answer, and it's not the answer today either.
posted by howfar at 2:59 PM on May 15, 2016 [6 favorites]
You should ask us Dutch what happens when you vote a certain way on a referendum... It'll get ignored in a politically expedient way.
This. I have a difficult time imagining Brexit actually happening, particularly because of the use of the EU as a politically expedient scapegoat. "We aren't the ones forcing [unpleasant, probably necessary thing] on you -- it's nasty old Brussels! Boo! Hiss!"
Without that scapegoat, Westminster is going to be accountable for a lot of things they don't want to be, and that won't be allowed to happen. Plus, it's hard to maintain your position as the economic capital of Europe if you're no longer in Europe. Plus, there are a lot of UK businesspeople who depend on East European workers for shit jobs, and they don't want that pipeline disrupted, either.
A little show of democracy, and business will continue as usual.
(All of which are gross oversimplifications, and I look forward to your angry letters.)
posted by Capt. Renault at 4:36 PM on May 15, 2016 [2 favorites]
This. I have a difficult time imagining Brexit actually happening, particularly because of the use of the EU as a politically expedient scapegoat. "We aren't the ones forcing [unpleasant, probably necessary thing] on you -- it's nasty old Brussels! Boo! Hiss!"
Without that scapegoat, Westminster is going to be accountable for a lot of things they don't want to be, and that won't be allowed to happen. Plus, it's hard to maintain your position as the economic capital of Europe if you're no longer in Europe. Plus, there are a lot of UK businesspeople who depend on East European workers for shit jobs, and they don't want that pipeline disrupted, either.
A little show of democracy, and business will continue as usual.
(All of which are gross oversimplifications, and I look forward to your angry letters.)
posted by Capt. Renault at 4:36 PM on May 15, 2016 [2 favorites]
Ah, you blessed innocent summer child, Capt. Renault, for thinking that a post-Brexit Britain would be forced to confront its own shortcomings instead of blaming everything on that there Europe.
Here's the game plan.
1. Things are bad
2. Reason? Immigrants. Regulation. Lack of sovereignty - all Europe's fault!
3. Cure? Leave Europe!
4. Nation agrees - ****BREXIT**** Hurrah! Sales of Elgar 78s and bunting soar.
5. We Stride Out To Take Our Place Among The Nations, do favourable trade deals, reform independent economy, etc
6. World says 'fuck off', reformed economy = everything sold off to VCs
7. No jobs, no money, no social services.
8. Things are bad!
9. Reason? Vindictive Europe refuses to do our bidding.
10. Cure? Demand restitution from Norway for Viking raids? Send one remaining battleship to raid Monaco? I don't know. What do isolated right-wing regimes normally do when the economy collapses?
OK, I do know that one.
posted by Devonian at 2:28 AM on May 16, 2016 [9 favorites]
Here's the game plan.
1. Things are bad
2. Reason? Immigrants. Regulation. Lack of sovereignty - all Europe's fault!
3. Cure? Leave Europe!
4. Nation agrees - ****BREXIT**** Hurrah! Sales of Elgar 78s and bunting soar.
5. We Stride Out To Take Our Place Among The Nations, do favourable trade deals, reform independent economy, etc
6. World says 'fuck off', reformed economy = everything sold off to VCs
7. No jobs, no money, no social services.
8. Things are bad!
9. Reason? Vindictive Europe refuses to do our bidding.
10. Cure? Demand restitution from Norway for Viking raids? Send one remaining battleship to raid Monaco? I don't know. What do isolated right-wing regimes normally do when the economy collapses?
OK, I do know that one.
posted by Devonian at 2:28 AM on May 16, 2016 [9 favorites]
If the Leavers were longstanding campaigners for democratic change in Britain then I might be able to take their interest in European democracy seriously. Tony Benn had plenty to say on the lack of representation in the European parliament, and there is much that is wrong with the system, but none of it is mentioned by the Leavers.
Over 70% of meetings held by European Commissioners and their closest advisors are with corporate lobbyists and 2% with local authorities.*
You have to appreciate what the lobbyists are up against though. MEPs get a very reasonable wage and a lot of generous allowances (including an optional €304 for every day they turn up to work at the parliament).
That I still trust the European more than the Leavers is testament to their moral decrepitude.
*Analysis of the 4,318 lobby meetings declared by the top tier of European Commission officials between December 2014 and June 2015 shows that more than 75% were with corporate lobbyists. This compares to 18% with NGOs, 4% with think tanks and 2% with local authorities. Google, General Electric and Airbus are some of the most active lobbyists at this level, with 25 to 29 meetings each. Google and General Electric are also some of the biggest spenders in Brussels, each declaring EU lobby budgets of around €3.5 million per year.
posted by asok at 7:27 AM on May 16, 2016 [1 favorite]
‘If one meets a powerful person ask them five questions: ‘What power have you got? Where did you get it from? In whose interests do you exercise it? To whom are you accountable? And how can we get rid of you?’ If you cannot get rid of the people who govern you, you do not live in a democratic system’ – Tony BennLobbying the European parliament is big business, despite the attempts to create a (voluntary) lobbyist register there is still nothing approaching transparency on this issue. For example, when I look at the list of lobbying by cost I see Apetra (representing Belgian petroleum interests) have spent €95m on lobbying and have one lobbyist. They must be a very busy person! In the NGO rankings I see that the Banana Growers of Belize have spent €5.8m, that's a lot of lubrication for pushing the world's favourite fruit! The register is a mess and needs sorting out, but it is not as big a mess as the lobbying situation at the European parliament.
Over 70% of meetings held by European Commissioners and their closest advisors are with corporate lobbyists and 2% with local authorities.*
You have to appreciate what the lobbyists are up against though. MEPs get a very reasonable wage and a lot of generous allowances (including an optional €304 for every day they turn up to work at the parliament).
That I still trust the European more than the Leavers is testament to their moral decrepitude.
*Analysis of the 4,318 lobby meetings declared by the top tier of European Commission officials between December 2014 and June 2015 shows that more than 75% were with corporate lobbyists. This compares to 18% with NGOs, 4% with think tanks and 2% with local authorities. Google, General Electric and Airbus are some of the most active lobbyists at this level, with 25 to 29 meetings each. Google and General Electric are also some of the biggest spenders in Brussels, each declaring EU lobby budgets of around €3.5 million per year.
posted by asok at 7:27 AM on May 16, 2016 [1 favorite]
BBC Newsnight Live Text - Does the EU work for us?
EU referendum: More than 300 business leaders back a Brexit
Europe migrant crisis: EU faces 'populist uprising'
Osborne says central argument settled, as he appears alongside Cable and Balls (yes, really!) (Do you believe him?)
Brexit: EU rules have ‘let dangerous criminals’ enter Britain
Open borders allow Isil sleeper cells into Europe and UK capable of carrying out Paris-style attacks, warns US intelligence chief
BBC: EU referendum issues guide: Explore the arguments (although seeing as the BBC is a remainer, I am dubious about reading their propaganda.)
posted by marienbad at 2:23 PM on May 16, 2016
EU referendum: More than 300 business leaders back a Brexit
Europe migrant crisis: EU faces 'populist uprising'
Osborne says central argument settled, as he appears alongside Cable and Balls (yes, really!) (Do you believe him?)
Brexit: EU rules have ‘let dangerous criminals’ enter Britain
Open borders allow Isil sleeper cells into Europe and UK capable of carrying out Paris-style attacks, warns US intelligence chief
BBC: EU referendum issues guide: Explore the arguments (although seeing as the BBC is a remainer, I am dubious about reading their propaganda.)
posted by marienbad at 2:23 PM on May 16, 2016
The leftwing case for Brexit (one day) - Paul Mason
The key point he makes is one I believe is true: were a left wing government to be in control many leftwingers would vote Leave. I think this is really short term thinking, as it is far from guaranteed that Johnson or Gove would be able to form a majority government in parliament. It would not take many Conservatives to join with the SNP and Labour to force a confidence motion against any post-referendum government. Indeed, at the very least the whole political outfall would be very bloody for the Conservatives and them forming any kind of coherent government under anybody would be impossible.
posted by Emma May Smith at 2:44 PM on May 16, 2016
The key point he makes is one I believe is true: were a left wing government to be in control many leftwingers would vote Leave. I think this is really short term thinking, as it is far from guaranteed that Johnson or Gove would be able to form a majority government in parliament. It would not take many Conservatives to join with the SNP and Labour to force a confidence motion against any post-referendum government. Indeed, at the very least the whole political outfall would be very bloody for the Conservatives and them forming any kind of coherent government under anybody would be impossible.
posted by Emma May Smith at 2:44 PM on May 16, 2016
I struggle to see how throwing the country into turmoil on turmoil will be a good thing for ordinary people, in particular given the real possibility that the right wing of the Tory party could end up in power propped up by UKIP. Please don't vote leave in order to hurt the Tories. If you genuinely think it's the right policy, that's fair enough, but if you're doing it in order to throw the dice in hope that things will somehow get better...just consider what has tended to happen when people have tried that in the past.
Where we are is bad. Don't imagine for one second it couldn't get much, much, much worse.
posted by howfar at 2:56 PM on May 16, 2016 [4 favorites]
Where we are is bad. Don't imagine for one second it couldn't get much, much, much worse.
posted by howfar at 2:56 PM on May 16, 2016 [4 favorites]
The leftwing case for Brexit (one day)
Like so many other things from Mason, that article probably sounded a lot more coherent in his brain than it does on paper, and is perhaps best summarized by this letter to the editor: Paul Mason writes “in Britain I can replace the government”. If that’s true, why hasn’t he done it?
posted by effbot at 5:33 PM on May 17, 2016
Like so many other things from Mason, that article probably sounded a lot more coherent in his brain than it does on paper, and is perhaps best summarized by this letter to the editor: Paul Mason writes “in Britain I can replace the government”. If that’s true, why hasn’t he done it?
posted by effbot at 5:33 PM on May 17, 2016
On the larger scale, the poll that's out today has had an effect on both the currency rates and the betting markets.
At the micro level, I was pleasantly surprised that my avowed Leave and anti-EU work colleague - at least previously - is now going to vote Remain. Reluctantly, but still Remain. He's been particularly scathing of the Leave campaign of late, using the words 'unpersuasive', 'inconsistent' and, in the case of Boris's "Hitler" comment which may turn out to be a watershed moment, '[expletive] embarrassing'.
Anyway, we'll see. The fact that the serial loser Nigel Farage is now saying that if the vote is narrowly in favor of Remain then there could be a second referendum seems to point to some desperation in the Leave camp.
posted by Wordshore at 10:22 AM on May 18, 2016
At the micro level, I was pleasantly surprised that my avowed Leave and anti-EU work colleague - at least previously - is now going to vote Remain. Reluctantly, but still Remain. He's been particularly scathing of the Leave campaign of late, using the words 'unpersuasive', 'inconsistent' and, in the case of Boris's "Hitler" comment which may turn out to be a watershed moment, '[expletive] embarrassing'.
Anyway, we'll see. The fact that the serial loser Nigel Farage is now saying that if the vote is narrowly in favor of Remain then there could be a second referendum seems to point to some desperation in the Leave camp.
posted by Wordshore at 10:22 AM on May 18, 2016
The fact that the serial loser Nigel Farage is now saying that if the vote is narrowly in favor of Remain then there could be a second referendum seems to point to some desperation in the Leave camp.
It's not just Farage, either -- various tories have also promised to keep the fight going no matter the outcome, to the extent that some talk about a "stab-in-the-back myth" in the works; here's Nick Cohen : "...this is the wider point, which should concern everyone who thinks that Gove or Johnson could be leading our country soon. All who cross them, whether it is the CBI, TUC, Obama, governor of the Bank of England, IMF or OECD, must be lying and corrupt. In an echo of Marxists of the 20th century, they will never admit that an opponent is arguing in good faith." (kind of ruins the "it's about democracy" argument, if not else).
posted by effbot at 12:05 PM on May 18, 2016 [2 favorites]
It's not just Farage, either -- various tories have also promised to keep the fight going no matter the outcome, to the extent that some talk about a "stab-in-the-back myth" in the works; here's Nick Cohen : "...this is the wider point, which should concern everyone who thinks that Gove or Johnson could be leading our country soon. All who cross them, whether it is the CBI, TUC, Obama, governor of the Bank of England, IMF or OECD, must be lying and corrupt. In an echo of Marxists of the 20th century, they will never admit that an opponent is arguing in good faith." (kind of ruins the "it's about democracy" argument, if not else).
posted by effbot at 12:05 PM on May 18, 2016 [2 favorites]
Nick Cohen gets in a dig about Marxism when he's discussing the opinions of ultra-senior Tories Gove and Boris Johnson. What a total prick.
posted by Coda Tronca at 1:22 PM on May 18, 2016 [1 favorite]
posted by Coda Tronca at 1:22 PM on May 18, 2016 [1 favorite]
So seems the BREXIT crowd is now borrowing both the propaganda and the graphics design from the xenophobic swiss right, in case someone still thought that this was about anything other than "fucking foreigners".
posted by effbot at 6:03 PM on May 21, 2016
posted by effbot at 6:03 PM on May 21, 2016
Given the increasingly poor polling for leave (whether or not it's a good predictor, because who knows?), this campaign is probably only going to get uglier. I've been getting 'Britain First' emails via a disposable address, and they're becoming increasingly indistinguishable from the output of the 'mainstream' Leave campaign.
posted by howfar at 6:04 AM on May 24, 2016
posted by howfar at 6:04 AM on May 24, 2016
Choose your elites – I’ll go with the ones that have done some proper work - "No, the truth of it is that, as with elections, the EU referendum is a competition between elites. The voters must make up their own minds but the information they get comes through politicians, academics, journalists, think tanks, industry bodies and professional services firms."
posted by the man of twists and turns at 7:56 AM on May 27, 2016 [1 favorite]
posted by the man of twists and turns at 7:56 AM on May 27, 2016 [1 favorite]
Project fear is a fitting name, you should be fucking terrified
posted by Grangousier at 3:00 AM on June 11, 2016 [2 favorites]
posted by Grangousier at 3:00 AM on June 11, 2016 [2 favorites]
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This thread has been archived and is closed to new comments
EU Council - is made up of the individual prime-minsters, presidents etc of each member state (elected)
EU Commission - is by members of the goverment of each state (indirectly elected)
EU Parliament - representatives directly elected by the people of the EU. (directly elected)
So all these bodies are as "democratic" as the elected official of the member states (roughly). I don't understand how that is giving up democracy?
posted by mary8nne at 3:22 AM on May 15, 2016 [7 favorites]