UK Goes To Polls In EU Referendum
June 22, 2016 5:58 PM   Subscribe

The day is finally here, the UK decides. BBC: "Britain is set to go to the polls in an historic referendum on whether the country should remain a member of the European Union or leave. Polling stations are open between 07:00 BST and 22:00 BST. An estimated 46,499,537 people are entitled to take part in the vote - a record number for a UK election. It is only the third nationwide referendum in UK history and comes after a four-month battle for votes between the Leave and Remain campaigns. In common with other broadcasters, the BBC is limited in what it can report while polls are open but you can follow the results as they come in across the BBC after polls close on Thursday evening." posted by marienbad (2742 comments total) 96 users marked this as a favorite
 
John Oliver's Last Week Tonight on Brexit (jump straight to the song)

Which you couldn't see in on TV the UK because it was deemed insufficiently balanced to air until after the election.
posted by zachlipton at 6:04 PM on June 22, 2016 [13 favorites]


I just want to tell you all good luck. We're all counting on you.

No, really. I mean it this time. Don't fuck this up.
posted by schmod at 6:08 PM on June 22, 2016 [50 favorites]


Oh it's Brexit vote tonight and I'm feeling right/ possible economic suicide is the reason to get good and tight/
posted by The Whelk at 6:10 PM on June 22, 2016 [5 favorites]


Maybe I should just drink enough tonight I black out for all of tomorrow.
posted by Artw at 6:11 PM on June 22, 2016 [4 favorites]


I really hope that the vote favors "Bremain!"

Seriously, I do.
posted by Charles_Swan at 6:17 PM on June 22, 2016 [6 favorites]


I've had the interesting experience of being British but watching the whole debate from the other side of the Atlantic. The debate so far hasn't exactly inspired patriotism on my part. The leave side seem to inhabit a different world from me - so I find myself siding with politicians I'd vote against any day of the week.
posted by ElliotH at 6:17 PM on June 22, 2016 [6 favorites]


It's funny how almost no one comes off looking good in this thing, except for Jo Cox (RIP), Nicola Sturgeon and a few others. David Cameron looks pathetically weak, Boris Johnson and Michael Gove dangerous opportunists.
posted by My Dad at 6:20 PM on June 22, 2016 [3 favorites]


And if it happens doesn't Scotland then Scotleave and rejoin the EU? If this kind of thing gets popular it's gonna be Mr. Lee's Greater Hong Kong from Snow Crash...
posted by save alive nothing that breatheth at 6:22 PM on June 22, 2016 [24 favorites]


How late do we have to stay up to get some returns on this thing? The US election has been rough on me.
posted by vrakatar at 6:28 PM on June 22, 2016


About 24 hours at least. Start making coffee now, I guess.
posted by phooky at 6:29 PM on June 22, 2016 [2 favorites]


Well at least this will give all the alternative history fiction authors something to write about. Pick whichever future where we get dirigibles guys, I want to be in the timeline that gets dirigibles this time.
posted by XMLicious at 6:30 PM on June 22, 2016 [46 favorites]


The only thing certain about this referendum is the sheer misjudgement of Cameron in calling it. More arrogant than Randolph Churchill's resignation, Cameron could not have marred his legacy worse with an unforced blunder. Indeed, this referendum is his legacy. Everything else about him will soon be forgotten but this: he ripped a hole in the established politics of the UK so that he could gain a few more votes, and nobody knows how big that hole is going to get.

Fool. Fool. Fool.
posted by Emma May Smith at 6:33 PM on June 22, 2016 [86 favorites]


"How late do we have to stay up to get some returns on this thing?"

Based on past British poll-watching experience, you'll get some fairly robust early returns by around 10 p.m. NYC time and have a good idea of how it will all shake out by midnight NYC time unless it is agonizingly, recount-requiringly close. (Like hanging-chad close, not a normal amount of nail-biting close.) I thiiiiiink the polls in the UK start closing at close-of-business in NYC but it usually takes several hours for results to start reporting.
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 6:33 PM on June 22, 2016 [1 favorite]


It's terrifying. All the major economists and business leaders, the leaders of the two major parties, personalities ranging from Jeremy Clarkson to Billy Bragg are for Remain. About half the voters are responding with "well, fuck 'em". That is emphatically not healthy for a society with pretensions to democracy.

My hope is that whatever happens, it prompts some soul searching in London and Brussels. Why is so much of the population so disaffected? Is it a good idea to be pushing ahead with further integration when the EU has been found lacking in its handling of the economic and immigration crises? How do we best ensure that actions of the EU are broadly seen as democratic and legitimate, regardless of support?

I seriously doubt such soul searching will happen, and I don't honestly know which would be worse. Leave being followed by an explosion of similar sentiments across the continent or remain not being followed up with reforms in both the UK and EU to try and address the fact that the "Fuck everything and everyone" vote is creeping close to a majority in some places.
posted by Grimgrin at 6:40 PM on June 22, 2016 [16 favorites]


I'm old enough that when I was shipped off to boarding school in England, the debate was very much about joining the European community,(after the fact) and whether the UK would switch to the euro. It was after the last referendum, which iirc passed overwhelmingly to stay in the union. Even with the reading I've done, I don't feel educated enough to have a firm opinion, but my gut instinct is to go with Jo Cox and hope that the UK stays in the EU.
posted by SecretAgentSockpuppet at 6:40 PM on June 22, 2016



Timings: How the evening is likely to unfold (all times BST)
All timings are approximate and may be subject to change

00:30 – Results begin to be reported for a small number of councils
02:00 – First big wave of results with 22 councils expected around this time
04:00 – The largest wave of results with 88 councils expected to report
06:00 – Any clear winner likely reported by now over media channels
07:00 – Final (more rural) areas report
08:00 - 09:00 – Official result will be called in Manchester, “around breakfast time”, according to the electoral commission

Stolen from a UBS note.
posted by JPD at 6:41 PM on June 22, 2016 [4 favorites]


[BST is UTC+1]
posted by indubitable at 6:45 PM on June 22, 2016


Everything else about him will soon be forgotten

I can think of one other thing that will be remembered.
posted by aaronetc at 6:50 PM on June 22, 2016 [62 favorites]


No, no, no, the line is "Smoke me a kipper, I'll be back for breakfast." Not Brexit, breakfast. Leaving the EU won't bring Ace Rimmer back.
posted by ckape at 6:57 PM on June 22, 2016 [18 favorites]


I seriously doubt such soul searching will happen, and I don't honestly know which would be worse. Leave being followed by an explosion of similar sentiments across the continent or remain not being followed up with reforms in both the UK and EU to try and address the fact that the "Fuck everything and everyone" vote is creeping close to a majority in some places.

I swear to god people would vote "WW3 for Europe" if they were promised it would get rid of immigrants.
posted by Talez at 7:00 PM on June 22, 2016 [31 favorites]


My hope is that whatever happens, it prompts some soul searching in London and Brussels. Why is so much of the population so disaffected?

The only chance there's going to be that soul searching is if "Leave" wins.
posted by 3urypteris at 7:09 PM on June 22, 2016 [1 favorite]


Everything else about him will soon be forgotten but this

the pigfucking comes to mind
posted by poffin boffin at 7:23 PM on June 22, 2016 [58 favorites]


It has been said elsewhere in this thread but bears repeating,

Dear The UK

Don't fuck this up.

Sincerely
Us.
posted by prismatic7 at 7:27 PM on June 22, 2016


Jonathan Freedland This is why we must remain: Here's My Final Plea

The single most important quote from this piece:

Peace and war

This is the big one. For all its flaws, it’s worth remembering what the EU was created for and what it has achieved. It took a continent that for a thousand years had been soaked in blood and aimed to bind those perennially warring nations into a structure that would allow war no more. And in that noble endeavour it has succeeded.

For 70 years, the nations of Europe have stopped murdering each other – a 70-year exception to a millennium-long rule. The EU – clumsy and blundering and bureaucratic though it can be – has replaced armed conflict that killed millions with trade and negotiation. If Britain leaves, the likelihood is great that the EU will unravel.

And, once it’s gone, history suggests Europe will become the dark continent once more. We know what European nations, without the restraint of the EU, can do to each other: look at the break-up of Yugoslavia 20 years ago, look at Russia and Ukraine today.

A Brexit vote will imperil an institution that has kept the peace for three generations. Don’t let’s be the generation that wrecked it.

posted by lalochezia at 7:28 PM on June 22, 2016 [44 favorites]


How brave is Parliament? I keep seeing rumors and stories of how they'll block Brexit (with a super-majority of MPs) if the vote goes badly tomorrow. How big would the fallout be? Riots? Massive crisis involving governmental legitimacy?
posted by honestcoyote at 7:35 PM on June 22, 2016 [1 favorite]


Further evidence that capitalist integration and the expansion of markets is a force for peace.
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 7:37 PM on June 22, 2016 [1 favorite]


On the Tea Party contingent of my FB feed, this lovely cartoon has been making the rounds, making plain the artists feeling on the Brexit issue.
posted by dr_dank at 7:42 PM on June 22, 2016 [2 favorites]


What a time not to have any scotch.
posted by Artw at 7:43 PM on June 22, 2016 [7 favorites]


Best of luck to ya', UK. I hope it goes well for you (and for us all).
posted by codacorolla at 7:49 PM on June 22, 2016


David Allen Green has pointed out in the FT that the referendum is not in fact legally binding.

The relevant legislation did not provide for the referendum result to have any formal trigger effect. The referendum is advisory rather than mandatory. The 2011 referendum on electoral reform did have an obligation on the government to legislate in the event of a “yes” vote (the vote was “no” so this did not matter). But no such provision was included in the EU referendum legislation.

The article is very much worth a read.
posted by motty at 8:01 PM on June 22, 2016 [10 favorites]


The whole thing is baffling. A bunch of shouty racists trying to force a country to commit economic suicide.
posted by His thoughts were red thoughts at 8:08 PM on June 22, 2016 [26 favorites]


"If this kind of thing gets popular it's gonna be Mr. Lee's Greater Hong Kong from Snow Crash..."

... only without radioactive/RTG-powered sentry dogs, suitcase-sized chain/rail-guns, sexually immature male hackers and an imploding United State of Ameri-

Oh. I see.
posted by danhon at 8:17 PM on June 22, 2016 [9 favorites]



A Brexit vote will imperil an institution that has kept the peace for three generations. Don’t let’s be the generation that wrecked it.


No, what imperiled the institution is the idea that it's mission should be "ever-closer union."

Its mission should be "close enough to keep peace along the Rhine, but not so close that things like Greece happen." Reached that point around 1999? Great. Stay there. No need for any closer harmonization or transfer of authority to Brussels.
posted by ocschwar at 8:20 PM on June 22, 2016 [3 favorites]


It seems very weird to this (non-california) American to put such a giant policy change up to a popular vote.
posted by octothorpe at 8:30 PM on June 22, 2016 [1 favorite]


Julian Assange backs Brexit
posted by L.P. Hatecraft at 8:35 PM on June 22, 2016


If Brexit wins out, will there be any chance of Breturn further down the line?
posted by indubitable at 8:48 PM on June 22, 2016 [2 favorites]


Why I am voting Leave, by Professor Alan Johnson


And for once, do read the comments.
posted by ocschwar at 8:52 PM on June 22, 2016 [18 favorites]


This is the first time in all my years as a disenfranchised expat that I really regret that I can't vote in my native country.

Meet the new PM, same as the old PM, living in the U.S., I can't say I cared that much.

But this, stay or leave, it's a historical vote and it pains me that I can't participate.
posted by madajb at 10:10 PM on June 22, 2016 [1 favorite]


Seconding the future stuffed with dirigibles.

And also the neologism "Bremain." Good luck & co!
posted by notyou at 10:17 PM on June 22, 2016


UK Polling Report on Eve-of-Referendum polling:

TNS: REMAIN 41%, LEAVE 43%, Undecided or won’t vote 16%.
SurveyMonkey: REMAIN 50%, LEAVE 47%
Qriously: REMAIN 37%, LEAVE 51, Don’t know 12%
ComRes: REMAIN 54%, LEAVE 46%
YouGov: REMAIN 51%, LEAVE 49%
posted by TheophileEscargot at 10:25 PM on June 22, 2016 [1 favorite]


Would like to say that at least after today, the horrible campaign will be over. But whatever the result, the aftermath is likely to be horribler.

Social classes AB and graduates are overwhelmingly for Remain. Social classes C2, C3 and GCSE-only people are overwhelmingly for Leave. If Remain wins, there will be a festival of gloating about the great victory over the stupid, racist losers of the working class. The EU will star working through its backlog of unpopular acts (like budget increases) that it's suspended for the campaign. It will set in stone the idea that Labour party and the left are the enemies of the working class, and only UKIP and the populist right are on their side.

If Leave wins, at least in the short term the markets will throw a tantrum.

Buckle up, it's going to be a rough ride...
posted by TheophileEscargot at 10:36 PM on June 22, 2016 [29 favorites]


A Guardian columnist travels around Britain (Wales and England) to conduct man-on-the-street interview about the referendum. It's depressing, really, since so much of the Leave support seems to come from marginalized people—the low paid, the out of work, and so on—who are obviously doing worse since the crash. It's almost as though it's a referendum on austerity... but people against austerity are voting the wrong way.
posted by My Dad at 10:57 PM on June 22, 2016 [7 favorites]


Or what TheophileEscargot said. Nice find, that link.
posted by My Dad at 10:58 PM on June 22, 2016 [1 favorite]


the whole meme about taking pens to the polling booth because MI5 is going to try and rig the election result

I mean, if they're rigging it in favor of staying...
posted by iffthen at 11:06 PM on June 22, 2016


One of my favourite memories of the past year is a damp, dark, cold London evening, getting on the number 38 from Angel back to Holborn where I lived at the time. In the dark, going to the upper deck and feeling like I'd walked into another world. Because there were rows and rows of brillliantly colourful Roma women with bundles of flowers to sell in the West End, all of them laughing and chatting and moving around the upper deck. The vibrancy was amazing.

They're precisely the kind of immigrants that Brexiters most want to stop as I imagine few of them were sober hardworking types like the stereotypical plumber or university student, and probably they were not unknown to the law. But it was really magical and thinking of it now brings home to me what I've missed in the dismal Remain campaign: there's an idea of Europe which the EU embodies only very imperfectly, certainly for Brits, but wouldn't it be nice if we could push to make it more real? Instead, the Remain campaign started with trying to gouge more concessions out of the EU and since then all the talk on the Remain side has been about the what's in it for me and my bank account.

Anyway, barring flash floods or other disaster, my proxy vote will soon be cast, a firm Remain.
posted by tavegyl at 11:11 PM on June 22, 2016 [4 favorites]


If Remain wins, there will be a festival of gloating about the great victory over the stupid, racist losers of the working class.

I would say "sigh of relief" rather than festival of gloating. And if Brexit comes to be then much weeping at the sheer lack of rational thought that goes into making far-reaching political decisions. I've convinced three people personally that Remain is a better bet but every other person I know at work and in my immediate family is for Exit.

Just terrified that "gut" will trump "brain" today. My alarm is set for 5am Friday morning to get the results first thing.
posted by longbaugh at 11:13 PM on June 22, 2016 [4 favorites]


The campaign went from disgusting to national tragedy. I hope the result ends the bigotry. I already know it won't, but hopefully the racists will be humbled back into the shadows.
posted by adept256 at 11:42 PM on June 22, 2016 [2 favorites]


Well here is hoping it isn't the nail biter that the Quebec '95 referendum was.
posted by Mitheral at 11:45 PM on June 22, 2016


Under the melancholic but prickly Corbyn the Labour Party has allowed the whole thing to be about nothing other than immigration and 'the economy' (that fictional version of the concept that consists of nothing but finding new vocabulary to express simply 'what's good for the profits of business is good for the people').

It's not unexpected, since the poor man has opposed the EU his entire life and would have voted Brexit up till he became leader of the party.

There were plenty of socialist debates to be had about Brexit, e.g. from yesterday The Left and the EU: Why Cling to This Reactionary Institution?, but you wouldn't know it from Corbyn, who clearly did a deal in the interests of 'unity' within a parliamentary party that is going to stage a coup against him within months.

Well here is hoping it isn't the nail biter


All the prediction markets, and the city of London markets and traders, have already assumed a definite Remain vote. The prediction markets got it right where the polls didn't on Scotland and the last UK election. It may not even be close in the end.
posted by Coda Tronca at 11:54 PM on June 22, 2016 [2 favorites]


Mrs Angry of Broken Barnet posts on the Remain side, but there's also an interesting comment by someone who's torn about which way to vote.
posted by paduasoy at 12:38 AM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


A Nightmare Before Brexit

Say Brexit breaks it.
Boris’ll fix it?
Will he, bollox.
posted by rory at 12:50 AM on June 23, 2016 [5 favorites]


If Leave wins, at least in the short term the markets will throw a tantrum.

And the government will go into crisis. And anti immigrant sentiment will soar. And Boris Johnson will likely become prime minister. And austerity will be doubled down on. And Scotland may seek a second indyref.

But let's really worry about potential gloating?
posted by howfar at 12:54 AM on June 23, 2016 [11 favorites]


I think Cameron has performed horribly poorly in setting the terms of the election, campaigning and national leadership here

FTFY.

AIf Britain votes to exit, he is being handed a blank slate to do whatever the Tories really want to do. And if racist assholes think voting for exit will miraculously boot eastern Europeans out of pubsjobs while the Tories hold power, they are doomed to be disappointed.
posted by Autumn Leaf at 1:32 AM on June 23, 2016


I'm watching with anxiety from across the Irish Sea.

Of course the decision is up to the voters. If I could be sure that they were making it on the basis of reliable information, I'd be a lot happier. But I've been watching the British press coverage since I was a teenager, back when the UK and Ireland were part of the enlargement that brought the EEC from six members to nine, and in those more than forty years I don't think the British press has ever reported fairly on the EEC , EC or EU. There has always been a constant trickle of stories ridiculing European institutions, while genuine benefits have been ignored.

The Euromyths Index gives an idea of the range of stories the British press have come with, and the doomed efforts by the European Commission to correct the worst mistakes.

I really despise Boris Johnson over this: he is actually very familiar with the EU institutions, but in his time as European correspondent for the Daily Telegraph he specialized in these Euromyth kind of stories:
The Brussels Years: The making of Brexit Boris.

So much of the time, when the papers sneer about rules and regulations, they ignore the fact that regulating water quality, air quality and food production are improving the quality of life for everyone.
posted by Azara at 1:35 AM on June 23, 2016 [14 favorites]


I don't know what's going to happen today, but I do think it's dangerous to conflate leaders with followers; to imagine that all people considering a "leave" vote are bigots and racists. Which is to say, non-persons, whose interests and livelihoods we can completely disregard due to their (presumably) being horrible people and whose demographic and cultural replacement we can look forward to. That's no way to form any kind of political coalition against austerity, and a good way to alienate the working classes entirely from (what used to be) the left. As John Harris writes this morning in the Guardian:
Far too much political coverage has only one way of framing its subject: riding the battlebuses, fixating on the polls, and being so obsessed with each side’s supposed figureheads that the whole thing starts to look like gladiatorial sport (witness Tuesday’s utterly absurd debate in that well-known home of meaningful discourse, Wembley Arena). In turn, in the wider world, that feeds into a tendency to conflate parties and campaigns with the people who vote for them. The result: people who want out are perceived as being made from the same stuff as the nastier elements of the leave campaign, endlessly ready to be “whipped up” into a steaming rage, and therefore worthy of the same mixture of bafflement and contempt.
posted by Sonny Jim at 1:40 AM on June 23, 2016 [14 favorites]


personalities ranging from Jeremy Clarkson to Billy Bragg are for Remain

I really wish you hadn't said that. I was pretty solid, but the opportunity of telling both Clarkson and Bragg to fuck off with a single vote... OK, I might be destroying my children's economic future, but I've got to think seriously about an opportunity like that.
posted by Segundus at 2:00 AM on June 23, 2016 [4 favorites]


octothorpe: "It seems very weird to this (non-california) American to put such a giant policy change up to a popular vote."

That's very much the way many European politicians think and is part of the problem: Why leave something as important as democracy to the people.
posted by chavenet at 2:05 AM on June 23, 2016 [4 favorites]


"Great Britain has lost an Empire and has not yet found a role." (Dean Acheson, former US Secretary of State, 1962)

Geoffrey Wheatcroft:
No doubt, Cameron thought that he would repeat that trick, and heal the wounds of his own party. Instead, he set off a bitter feud within its ranks. But there was more to his mistake than merely failing to foresee that the Brexit wing of the Tories would comprise nearly half his MPs, and a noisy faction of his cabinet, or the degree to which the latest tragic migrant crisis would highlight existing fears about immigration. Cameron unleashed forces of which he had not been properly aware.

Something far deeper is at stake in this week’s vote. A wave of resentment against the elites is sweeping Europe, and in Britain this summer, as John Harris has written, we have seen a working-class revolt. The referendum is a form of displacement activity. It’s about something other – or much more – than what it is supposed to be about.

Those forces, for which Euroscepticism is a wholly inadequate word, range from crude racism and nativist dislike of immigrants, to humble patriotism and yearning for a maybe imaginary lost age. The referendum turns not so much on the national interest as on a national idea.

Grauniad long read

posted by Mister Bijou at 2:07 AM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


to imagine that all people considering a "leave" vote are bigots and racists

Just, like, a lot of them? There's this frequent insistence from Harris and others that people on "the left" don't understand working class people and it's really tiresome. Like that embarrassing Emily Thornbury bullshit. And Gillian Duffy. It always comes from commentators who have no contact with ordinary people beyond vox pops every election season.
posted by threetwentytwo at 2:10 AM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]




My friend gets to vote here and I am well jealous:

https://twitter.com/GaskellsHouse/status/745864840825143296
posted by threetwentytwo at 2:14 AM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Based on past British poll-watching experience, you'll get some fairly robust early returns by around 10 p.m. NYC time and have a good idea of how it will all shake out by midnight NYC time unless it is agonizingly, recount-requiringly close. (Like hanging-chad close, not a normal amount of nail-biting close.) I thiiiiiink the polls in the UK start closing at close-of-business in NYC but it usually takes several hours for results to start reporting.

Though this time there are no exit polls; various areas will start reporting during the night, though Remain-leaning areas will report disproportionately early. The Guardian has a timeline of what to expect at various times of the night.
posted by acb at 2:19 AM on June 23, 2016


Julian Assange backs Brexit

Julian Assange is by now the George Galloway of the cyberpunk set, right down to appearances on various authoritarian states' propaganda organs.
posted by acb at 2:21 AM on June 23, 2016 [5 favorites]


The Euromyths Index gives an idea of the range of stories the British press have come with, and the doomed efforts by the European Commission to correct the worst mistakes.

This one, on a supposed directive to force alpine cows into nappies is a work of art as an attempt at humor by a Serious Organization; still can't decide if not quite succeeding makes it cringeworthy or sublime.
posted by Dr Dracator at 2:22 AM on June 23, 2016


Well, I voted this morning. Lets hope it’s not so close that my vote matters.
posted by pharm at 2:26 AM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


to imagine that all people considering a "leave" vote are bigots and racists

Oh no, they're not racist, they're just happy to vote for a deeply racist course of action. I completely understand this very important and meaningful distinction.
posted by Dysk at 2:29 AM on June 23, 2016 [20 favorites]


The campaign went from disgusting to national tragedy. I hope the result ends the bigotry. I already know it won't, but hopefully the racists will be humbled back into the shadows.

Alas, it's unlikely.

If Leave prevail, of course, it'll be catastrophic. Perhaps Prime Minister Boris will fudge some kind of settlement which maintains the status quo, but there will be two years of economic upheaval. Perhaps we will drop out, the pound will sink and stay down, our Tory/UKIP overlords (including Lord Farage) will gut regulations, and Britain will become a highly competitive dirty sweatshop economy and tax haven, complete with captive workforce who can't up sticks and look for better opportunities abroad.

If Remain prevail by a narrow margin (say, 53%-47%), it's a much less bad result, but still not a good one. We stay in the EU, but the kippers and xenophobes won't be shut up. Having almost won it will embolden them and they'll stay on, spoiling things and spoiling for a rematch, abetted by the right-wing tabloids. UKIP will get people into the EU Parliament and gum up the works, so they can point at it and say “see? the EU doesn't work”.

A good result would be a thrashing for Leave, and a resounding mandate. If they were beaten down to the “crazification factor” of about 27%, they'd cease to be a factor (for a while; though who knows, if the red-tops pump enough hype into the corpse, they can probably eventually reanimate it). Britain's place in the EU would be all but undisputed and secure for the foreseeable future.
posted by acb at 2:29 AM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


acb: The Guardian has a timeline of what to expect at various times of the night.

This early Guardian article is similar, but also has some interesting commentary about what early results might indicate about the national vote. For example:
If the referendum were a dead heat, we should expect Leave to be six percentage points ahead in Sunderland, winning 53% to 47%. That figure is still subject to a lot of uncertainty: in a dead heat Leave could be anywhere between one point behind and 13 points ahead. But the closer things are in Sunderland, the better things will be for Remain.
posted by Pink Frost at 2:30 AM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Oh no, they're not racist, they're just happy to vote for a deeply racist course of action. I completely understand this very important and meaningful distinction.

It's like the Simpsons FOX News motto: “Not racist, but #1 with racists”
posted by acb at 2:30 AM on June 23, 2016 [22 favorites]


John Harris has written some really great articles over this referendum. He's approached Leave voters with a lot of humanity and understanding. I recommend all Remainers read him.
posted by Emma May Smith at 2:35 AM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


If Britain votes to exit, he is being handed a blank slate to do whatever the Tories really want to do.

If the vote is for Brexit, the only thing Cameron is getting handed is his P45; his government will be done inside of a week. Of course, that just means that it'll be Boris who'll be implementing the maximal Tory agenda, so that's maybe not so comforting.
posted by strangely stunted trees at 2:40 AM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


Oh please, if we leave the EU it won't lead to war in Europe, this is just scaremongering nonsense. Vote Leave, and lets put this failed, bloated, corrupt and useless experiment behind us, an experiment which benefits the rich and powerful way more than it benefits the poor and the working class.. DOn't believe me? Look at income and wealth inequality and ho it has gone up while we have been in the EU. Look at the combined wealth (bottom 10% = £5.7 bn, top 10% = £5 tn) so when people say we get more back than we put in it is going to the rich and powerful, not the poor. We have ongoing wage stagnation, lack of housing, lack of social housing, lack of educational opportunities (yes, the politicians saying we should remain are the same ones who brought in fees for H.E. meaning poor people graduate with huge amounts of debt!), millions of British people on the dole (as has been the case since mass immigration began - people say it doesn't cause unemployment yet how come they can find jobs fro millions of immigrants and not British people? It is all about decimating and destroying the working class so we have no power, money or fucking anything), lack of access to jobs, lack of access to better jobs once you have a job, low wages, poverty, inequality...

And then the corporations are saying stay - yeah, they care so much about the welfare of the poor they may us min wage (and millions on zero hours) so you are siding with the corporations if you vote remain - do you really think they have the best interests of the poor at heart when they say this? Really?

As for immigration - people are not against it because they are racist, and it is not a case of "no immigration at all" - it is the impact it has had on peoples lives and communities, impacts not felt by middle class liberals, by the grauniad or bbc, by the tories or the luvvies who say remain, by the rich or the corporations. So please can we stop with this "leave are racist" bullshit. There are racists on both sides of this. It has had a profound and deep effect - we are living in overcrowded and cramped and congested towns and cities and it will only get worse - the rich won't be happy until the poor are living in Victorian levels of squalor and overcrowding, and then you will all wring your hands and say "who could have forseen this." Wages have stagnated while the corporations have paid out massive dividends (more punters, more stuff sold + wage stagnation = lower costs) and poor people can't get their children into the school they want, and are stuck with older kids at hom as there is nowhere for them to live.


And frankly, George Osborne says remain - have you seen how vicious this guys policies are towards the poor, the mentally ill, the sick, the disadvantaged? When he says remain, you know we should be leaving.

And to read that the politicians will veto all the things people want to happen when we vote to leave is shocking, but they must do the will of their corporate paymasters as they all want a cushy corporate job when they leave office/civil service, all waved through by the lame and ineffective ACOBA. Corporate paymasters who want us to stay.

The EU is just another part of the system, a system designed to keep the poor down and the rich at the top, it is another tool in the arsenal of systemic inequality and the maintainance of this system.

Vote Leave.
posted by marienbad at 2:50 AM on June 23, 2016 [7 favorites]


> Oh no, they're not racist, they're just happy to vote for a deeply racist course of action. I completely understand this very important and meaningful distinction.

You know when you see a thing, don't like the thing, other the thing and then judge it...

I am passionately voting remain. I cannot conceive of doing anything other, but there are valid non-racist reasons to not like the EU and to prefer not to be in it.
posted by vbfg at 2:59 AM on June 23, 2016 [10 favorites]


As for immigration - people are not against it because they are racist, and it is not a case of "no immigration at all"

But quite a few are, and for quite a few it is.

There are racists on both sides of this.

I for one would be fascinated to see your list of Remain examples.

One of the best explanations I’ve seen of why Brexit has a grip on regional England.
posted by rory at 3:04 AM on June 23, 2016 [9 favorites]


There are a lot of things to unpack in that screed marenbad, but I can't see much there that has anything to do with European membership as such.
The wealth inequality in the UK is not the result of being a member of the European Community, neither does ' ongoing wage stagnation, lack of housing, lack of social housing, lack of educational opportunities (yes, the politicians saying we should remain are the same ones who brought in fees for H.E. meaning poor people graduate with huge amounts of debt!), millions of British people on the dole (as has been the case since mass immigration began - people say it doesn't cause unemployment yet how come they can find jobs fro millions of immigrants and not British people? It is all about decimating and destroying the working class so we have no power, money or fucking anything), lack of access to jobs, lack of access to better jobs once you have a job, low wages, poverty, inequality... '

Those are all important issues that are not directly related to this referendum.

Equating unemployment with immigration is particularly disturbing and indicates a contorted understanding of worker migration to the UK. Historically West Indian and Pakistani workers were invited to the UK to serve as a low paid workforce, this again has nothing to do with Europe.

For example I know that today there are many people who have English as a second language who are working low skilled jobs such as in a warehouse, retail work, restaurant work etc. There are several reasons why this is the case:
1) They turn up to work and work hard, they are willing workers
2) The management can mess them about on their wages and rights as they don't necessarily have good English language skills to complain or understanding of their rights
3) If they kick up a fuss they can be blacklisted and genuinely unable to find work
posted by asok at 3:08 AM on June 23, 2016 [13 favorites]


There are racists on both sides of this.

I for one would be fascinated to see your list of Remain examples.


It's probably pointless to talk about who is 'A Racist', but there are plenty of politicians on the Remain side who have been queuing up to 'talk tough on immigration' and are happy to press all those buttons when it suits them.

Picking up votes by blaming immigrants for taking jobs is not exactly a new thing in mainstream political discourse. It's 48 years since Powell's 'Rivers of Blood' speech.
posted by Coda Tronca at 3:13 AM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


The only positive I've found from this horrible and tawdry campaign is the discovery of how easy it is to gain Irish citizenship in the event the UK does shoot itself in the foot today.

Might do it even if Remain wins if only to get away from the Bullingdon club debating show that political conversation has fallen to in this country.
posted by brilliantmistake at 3:15 AM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


I voted remain today. But reluctantly. Because of the way this has all been framed, if leave wins, it will be seen as a victory for racists and specifically for UKIP. That is, the greatest strategy of the Remain camp is the vileness of the Leave Camp. But apart from that, I'm not certain that Remain is the most moral or even most prudent choice.

I am persuaded that our economy would take a big hit if we left the EU, and thereby lead to further irrational austerity measures. However, I'm not convinced we couldn't ultimately recover from that hit. And hey, maybe our house prices and rents ought to be lower?

I do not think we have a moral duty to permit economic migration. The value of freedom of movement is when you move for love, or to escape oppression and war. But it's quite plausible that economic migration causes wage stagnation for the poorest people, undermines collective bargaining, and maybe even undermines the countries from which people are migrating. (Economic migration serves the interests of the cosmopolitan elite (e.g. academics like me) I don't think it undermines social services.)

I think if we had the choice, we would vote for greater democratic accountability of the EU- specifically the capacity to elect the EU commission and not be hemmed in by immutable neo-liberal treaties. I hope we get another chance one day to demand democratic reform or else we'll leave.
posted by leibniz at 3:15 AM on June 23, 2016 [7 favorites]


You know when you see a thing, don't like the thing, other the thing and then judge it...

It's so everyday it's not other at all. Since I'm white and my spoken English is unaccented (a slight local twinge perhaps) I was constantly witness to "fucking immigrants" rants from colleagues in both retail and at a management consultancy firm. If and when I pointed out that I was also an immigrant, they'd concede that I was "one of the good ones" and "they didn't mean people like ME" and sometimes even "nah, it's these turks and Indians". It was clear that every time the word "immigrant" was uttered - and it was always with utter derision - it was intended and taken to mean people who weren't white.
posted by Dysk at 3:16 AM on June 23, 2016 [17 favorites]


My only reaction to Marienbad and other Lexiters (who are not entirely devoid of valid points!) is - "ok, but what on earth do you think will happen if Leave win?"
posted by ominous_paws at 3:23 AM on June 23, 2016 [10 favorites]


It's so everyday it's not other at all.

Exactly. Much as the leave campaign loves to push the mighty elites line, remain voters do actually know these people: They are parents, family members, co-workers, friends. And a lot of them are straight up racist when they think they're in good company.
posted by threetwentytwo at 3:25 AM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


If and when I pointed out that I was also an immigrant, they'd concede that I was "one of the good ones" and "they didn't mean people like ME" and sometimes even "nah, it's these turks and Indians". It was clear that every time the word "immigrant" was uttered - and it was always with utter derision - it was intended and taken to mean people who weren't white.

I had very similar experiences with (some) people in the UK. And I'd suspect that the majority of British people who have problems with immigrants are like that. But I don't think that's the whole story.

For example you've got even Farage saying he wants more Indian immigration compared to European (based around the shared English language and usage of the common law). Then at another extreme you've got people who really don't want any immigrants, including English-speaking white people (see some of the comments here, for example).

So yeah, plenty of racism. But not just that. There's some who are arguing against immigration based on genuine belief that their jobs are threatened or that the UK's too crowded [to be clear before I go to bed: I strongly disagree with them, and the political response to those beliefs has already cost me my ability to live and work in the UK].
posted by Pink Frost at 3:30 AM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


20 Reasons you should vote to leave the European Union from the Telegraph.

Some absolute howlers:
- We could have proper vacuum cleaners
- We could have blue passports again
- No more stupid recycling bins
- We could have proper light bulbs again

I seriously had to check I wasn't reading The Onion. The only one I agree with:
- British MEPs would be sacked

Yes I think they should be sacked. But sacked in that people should be voting for MEPs that would properly do their jobs. MEPs are full of UKIPers and Leave Tories, of course they're going to do a piss poor job of representing Britain in the EU, their main goal is to obstruct and dismantle the very idea of it.
posted by like_neon at 3:32 AM on June 23, 2016 [5 favorites]


4) They are not unionised

There is some evidence that wage suppression has resulted in areas and job types that have a high percentage of migrant workers. This is an issue for upholding workers' rights and minimum wage legislation.

leibniz - I do not think we have a moral duty to permit economic migration.

To give but one example, the NHS has been heavily reliant on migrant workers pretty much since it's conception. There are a good percentage of people in the UK who owe their lives to migrant workers.

I think people should be able to move about the planet as easily as money does, figuratively speaking. If we value people below money that is a sad indictment of 21st century humanity.
posted by asok at 3:33 AM on June 23, 2016 [9 favorites]


I have a lot of compassion for people who are voting leave as a reaction to de-industrialization and the financialization of the British economy. I think they've got cause and effect totally wrong, but I get where they are approaching the issue from. The rest of the leave voters are mostly racists and conspiracy theorists.

Which isn't too say the EU as an institution doesn't have problems. Far too bureaucratic and removed from the constituents - leads too much management of the elites.
posted by JPD at 3:33 AM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


By 8:30 this morning, I'd already been stopped in the street by a "Remain" campaigner anxious to give me one of her "I'm In" stickers and treated to a London cabbie's lengthy explanation of why he was voting "Leave". The "Remain" campaigner was urging everyone she stopped to recruit at least three of their own friends to the cause.

There was only one other voter in my local polling station when I stopped in there to vote "Remain" at about 11:15am, but I dare say it'll get much busier as the day wears on. I might nip up there again this evening to see what the crowds are like then.
posted by Paul Slade at 3:34 AM on June 23, 2016


leibniz - I do not think we have a moral duty to permit economic migration.

asok- To give but one example, the NHS has been heavily reliant on migrant workers pretty much since it's conception. There are a good percentage of people in the UK who owe their lives to migrant workers.

That's not a moral argument, but a prudential one. And both morally and prudentially, we ought to be investing in our NHS more- not relying on other countries to train our health professionals.
posted by leibniz at 3:38 AM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


In the US, political ads, slogans, shirts, and signs in front yards are relatively normal. It's not like that in England. Well, it wasn't until now. This. This is different.

It's literally everywhere. Everyone is talking about it. Even when they're not talking about it, I know they're thinking about it, like tiny thought bubbles above their heads.

After I voted this morning I went to Sainsburys to get some juice and two young men were talking about it. "I'm not going to vote," said the taller one. "But I told my mum to vote remain" he says, as if too embarrassed about his own stance.

Buses tell me to vote, with hands with big Xs on their white palms. Newspapers threaten me that if I vote remain that "Albania and Turkey are going to join the EU!" while others insist that families will be torn apart like ripped pieces of paper if I vote leave.

I even went to see my GP the other week and between the examination and prescription, he asked. I suggested he move to Australia with all the other GPs if we have to leave. "I'm too old," he told me.
posted by Ms. Moonlight at 3:38 AM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


Remain can chill: the bookmakers now have Remain getting shorter by the minute at 1/10 currently, and the prediction markets are rock solid for Remain. The big finance outfits do their own secret exit polls as the day goes on so look for currency speculation as well if you understand that stuff (I don't!).
posted by Coda Tronca at 3:40 AM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


For example you've got even Farage saying he wants more Indian immigration compared to European (based around the shared English language and usage of the common law). Then at another extreme you've got people who really don't want any immigrants, including English-speaking white people (see some of the comments here, for example).

Racism comes in many flavours! Some people are racist against Indians, some people against those with a funny accent, since against those who haven't had the "pleasure" of role under the British crown, some against everyone not born on their island! It's a veritable rainbow of hatred!
posted by Dysk at 3:40 AM on June 23, 2016 [5 favorites]


Regarding weather and turnout: (copied from the other thread)

In the UK:
Oxford academic and election specialist John Curtice when asked whether there was firm evidence of a link between weather and turnout said:
"No. We've had one or two general elections when it's been raining in some parts of the country and not in another and there has been no significant variation in turnout. Nobody has ever really done the analysis for local elections. It's one of the most common theories of turnout but nobody has ever found the evidence to back it up. We tend to avoid elections in December and January because snow can make a difference. Just because there's a little bit of rain in the south east people think it's relevant."


In the US:
They got data from every county in the U.S. for every presidential election from 1948 to 2000 and magtched that up with weather reports from over 20,000 weather stations and determined that for every inch of rain that a county receives above its average rainfall, turnout decreases roughly about one percentage point. And that reduction in turn out was for the benefit of the Republican party.


In the Netherlands:
A paper in International Journal of Biometeorology merged the election results from over 400 municipalities with election-day weather data drawn from the nearest weather station between 1971 and 2010. It found that the weather parameters indeed affect voter turnout. Election-day rainfall of roughly 25 mm (1 inch) reduces turnout by a rate of one percent, whereas a 10-degree-Celsius increase in temperature correlates with an increase of almost one percent in overall turnout. One hundred percent sunshine corresponds to a one and a half percent greater voter turnout compared to zero sunshine.
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 3:50 AM on June 23, 2016 [9 favorites]


To give but one example, the NHS has been heavily reliant on migrant workers pretty much since it's conception. There are a good percentage of people in the UK who owe their lives to migrant workers.

It is certainly true that the NHS has a moral duty to provide healthcare, and that much of it is delivered by immigrants. But there is still no ultimate moral duty to allow economic migration, as using migration to staff the NHS is policy and not a unalterable fact of life. It has always been UK policy to use less economically developed countries as sources of skilled healthcare staff rather than bear the training costs at home. The morality of that is questionable, but it is certainly not something which cannot be changed.

I don't believe in an autarkic healthcare system, but the use of the NHS to back up the argument for immigration is a red herring. The more so for its use in supporting unskilled EU migration, as EU citizens in the NHS tend toward the less skilled occupations rather than skilled such as doctors and nurses. I have spent my whole life being seen by doctors of different origins (Indian, Pakistani, Bangladeshi, Ugandan Indian, Malaysian, Somalian, Iraqi, and Egyptian), but so far never a doctor of European descent who wasn't English. The EU workforce entering the UK is nowhere near as skilled as those entering from outside the EU: only about 12% of EU migrants meet the criteria for non-EU migrants.
posted by Emma May Smith at 3:52 AM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


Fact checking brexit is the conclusion in a series of articles on the claims made by each campaign.

The author claims
"At every single turn, I found that the Leave campaign’s arguments were founded on lies."
and:
"every claim of [remain] I’ve checked  ... has turned out to be more or less sound."

of course there is plenty of scope there for cherry picking or game playing over what is and isn't a lie etc. etc.
(and the author has a pro-remain bias before he started)
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 3:58 AM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


leibniz, the moral argument is below that. The idea that human beings should be restricted from movement about the planet is what I am questioning. That there are immediately obvious positive results is worth bearing in mind.

Obviously we aught to be investing in the NHS, training people and making the jobs appealing. That has not been the case in the continuing drive to privatise and break up the NHS that has been ongoing since the 1980's. There is a reason why we have had to recruit overseas for these roles for the past 40+ years and it has nothing to do with European membership.

People have consistently voted against their best interests as regards the NHS and education, notwithstanding the short lived Libdem university fees promise.

From the New Scientist:
To understand complex issues, it is often a good idea to ask a scientist. One factor uncovered by research is the US's shifting racial demographics, which many people find threatening and respond by becoming racially intolerant. The changing demographics of the UK seems to be having a similar effect.

Fear of change is a natural impulse; the desire to pull up the drawbridge follows. But as we have repeatedly reported, that response is irrational and self-defeating. We urge everyone to think about what the hell is really going on before deciding which way to vote.
Emma May Smith, you have my argument confused. I am simply saying that migration is a net benefit, whether from within the EU or not. It is morally and economically the right thing to do. That there should be investment in training and better workers' rights is also morally and economically the right thing to do in the long run.
posted by asok at 4:00 AM on June 23, 2016


Can I ramble here? I'mma ramble.

I haven't voted yet. I'll do so when I'm home from work this evening in my very Leave-leaning prosperous South of England town. And I genuinely don't know how I'm finally going to tick that box when I'm standing in the booth. Unfortunately "Reluctantly Remain" or "Remain with serious reservations" is not an option. Neither is "Leave, but immediate General Election Please" or "Leave, but it's because I'm not for further integration and was happy with our current periphery status so no hard feelings Europe."

I'm a card-carrying Liberal Democrat, which is the only major (hah) party without a real euro-sceptic wing. It's heavily pro Europe. But none of the Remain arguments, if you can call them that, have been particularly persuasive to genuine undecided voters. It's been all about my pocketbook. Leave will mean a pound collapse. Leave will mean economic misery. Leave will mean doom. Remain will mean... more of the same I guess?

If we wake up tomorrow to a Leave victory, the sun will continue to rise. People will get up and go to work. The markets may punish us for a period, before remembering that none of the actual stuff of the economy has actually gone anywhere. We still have universities. Still have factories. Still have farms. Still have a highly educated, English speaking workforce. Still have an entrepreneurial culture. Still have mostly the same general regulations for public safety and quality of life as other big Western democracies. We still have massive cultural capital, a seat at the UN security council, a senior NATO membership, global military capability, and we're still a few miles off the French coast. In the medium term, we'll be fine I think. The Remain campaign has been all about how bad that short term might be. But in truth, nobody really knows.

I find it interesting and amusing that for this referendum at least, the EU has found an ally with progressives. I mean, the EU is probably the biggest, most badass Neoliberal corporatist institutions in history. Watching Corbyn give his support to the EU through gritted teeth is fun.

So, we'll see. I'm going to cast my vote at about 7pm, and I'll sleep well either way. Leave or Remain, we're going to have some real work to do in the morning.
posted by generichuman at 4:01 AM on June 23, 2016 [5 favorites]


But god, the anti-immigration racism has been pretty vile. From both sides wanting to appear "tough".

I'm an immigrant, but I'm an invisible immigrant because I'm white and Canadian and middle class and married to an English woman with two English kids.

The number of times I've had to gently remind people that I immigrated here is... irritating.
posted by generichuman at 4:08 AM on June 23, 2016 [10 favorites]


Meanwhile, in the music sphere, Andy Votel (of Finders Keepers Records, a fine purveyor of groovy foreign weirdness) has been campaigning for the In campaign, creating this logo, and sending out tweets like “#VoteBalearic #VoteYeYe #VoteKrautrock #VoteItalo #VoteCosmic #VoteGreekBeat #VotePopcorn #VoteStay #VoteRemain”. Meanwhile, Berlin-based electronic music software provider Native Instruments has urged Britons to vote In.

Which suggests that, should Leave prevail, there'll be no more music software from Berlin, mediterranean disco/psych vinyl, or especially Eurorack modules. All music in Britain will sound like an Oasis cover band from the Medway towns. It'll be the Mod Revival That Never Ended.
posted by acb at 4:10 AM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


generichuman - How about "vote to remain so you can decide later"? :) There's the possibility of another referendum to leave in the future, but we'll never be let back in.
posted by like_neon at 4:11 AM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Voted Remain this morning.

One thing I haven't seen a lot of discussion of is the not-unlikely chance that England as a whole will vote Leave by a narrow margin, but be kept in by the pro-EU votes of Scotland and possibly Wales. That's a distinct possibility, as Scotland is polling strongly pro-Remain and the five million or so of us up here squarely bridge the margin of error in English polling.

As a supporter of Scottish independence who was bitterly disappointed by the Indyref result, I might actually puke from schadenfreude overdose. The wailing about Little England's iron will being overridden by those damn Scots will be something to behold.
posted by Happy Dave at 4:11 AM on June 23, 2016 [19 favorites]


generichuman I find it interesting and amusing that for this referendum at least, the EU has found an ally with progressives. I mean, the EU is probably the biggest, most badass Neoliberal corporatist institutions in history.

Word! I am like, come on everyone, let's go down town for some hardcore civic obedience!
posted by asok at 4:12 AM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


How about "vote to remain so you can decide later"?

Do we just keep voting to renew our membership every few years until we decide to leave? Or would something have to change dramatically to justify having yet another EU membership referendum?
posted by acb at 4:14 AM on June 23, 2016


there are plenty of politicians on the Remain side who have been queuing up to 'talk tough on immigration' and are happy to press all those buttons when it suits them.

I would honestly like to see any example of public Remain rhetoric that comes anywhere close to Farage's "breaking point" poster.

I know there are people on both sides who question the UK's immigration levels, but there can be other reasons for that than racist ones, so there might be ways of discussing and addressing it that avoid racial discrimination (emphasis on the "might"). But none of the people telling EU citizens living in the UK to "go home" are Remain. There are plenty of EU citizens talking online about how they've experienced this; I've heard it from colleagues, too - people who have lived here for decades. The lack of public reassurance from the Leave camp about the post-Brexit fate of EU citizens who are already here only fuels it. There's no equivalent silence from Remain, because obviously Remain = freedom of movement, and the question doesn't arise.
posted by rory at 4:14 AM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


specifically the capacity to elect the EU commission

Are we going to elect Whitehall, then? Because we can implement that right now. Bloody unelected bureaucrats and their undemocratic ways, drafting laws and shaping policies for the UK Parliament to consider.

It's not like that in England. Well, it wasn't until now. This. This is different. It's literally everywhere. Everyone is talking about it.

One of the fascinating features of this referendum is that here in Edinburgh (and presumably the rest of Scotland, but I don't know), there are no signs in windows at all; the difference between this and the indyref in 2014 is marked. I think a lot of it's because we were suffering from Momentous Referendum fatigue. Now England knows the feeling too.
posted by rory at 4:15 AM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


One of the fascinating features of this referendum is that here in Edinburgh (and presumably the rest of Scotland, but I don't know), there are no signs in windows at all; the difference between this and the indyref in 2014 is marked.

Seen one or two signs in the New Town, all Remain. And a few Leave signs on Instagram, mostly in fishing communities. But yeah, compared to the Indyref, it's been barely visible. It's an English argument, pretty much.

I think a lot of it's because we were suffering from Momentous Referendum fatigue. Now England knows the feeling too.

Word.
posted by Happy Dave at 4:17 AM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


none of the Remain arguments, if you can call them that, have been particularly persuasive to genuine undecided voters. It's been all about my pocketbook.

The pocketbook certainly matters, but for me what matters more is that we're part of the only region in the world where our citizenship is effectively like having 28 citizenships. There's nowhere else like it. If you're from Australia or New Zealand, you have something roughly equivalent in respect of one another; or if you're from the US and Canada. But there aren't too many more examples like that.

It's expensive to secure the right to live and work in just one other country, let alone citizenship there, and it takes years and years. Ask any of us who've done it. To have that right for most of Europe is extraordinary. Extraordinary.
posted by rory at 4:18 AM on June 23, 2016 [20 favorites]


I've been trying to expand my circle of opinions that I follow, to break down the echo chamber a bit, and it is staggeringly difficult to do (because my opinions are all correct and based on the bets mix of sound logic and morals).

But one thing that I have seen is that a lot of Leave fans really feel very very strongly, real deep convictions heart and soul. (Very much unlike the majority of Remain). They also are in their own well reinforced echo chamber, and if the vote doesn't go Leave I really think there will be problems. They won't go away, not the hardcore believer who've only been emboldened by this referendum and it's hateful campaign.
There will be at least some violence in the streets tonight, if Remain win.
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 4:18 AM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


marienbad: DOn't believe me? Look at income and wealth inequality and ho it has gone up while we have been in the EU. Look at the combined wealth (bottom 10% = £5.7 bn, top 10% = £5 tn) so when people say we get more back than we put in it is going to the rich and powerful, not the poor.

Could an alternative explanation be that the EU has enriched everyone and it is the politics of the Tories that have failed spectacularly in distributing this wealth?

And frankly, George Osborne says remain - have you seen how vicious this guys policies are towards the poor, the mentally ill, the sick, the disadvantaged? When he says remain, you know we should be leaving.

I loathe George Osborne but this isn't a referendum about the Tories. All the major parties are for Remain, including the Greens and SNP - two parties I respect and that I do believe care about the common welfare.
The fact is that the EU provides protection for businesses, yes, but also provides protection for consumers. If all EU laws suddenly disappear, which ones do you think will be upheld and which will be eroded?

Your argument is the same as a good friend of mine (who was one of my referees for British Citizenship). A lot of people are angry. They should be angry. But this is not the right deal. This won't fix those things and will likely make them worse.
I voted Remain this morning and I will keep fighting to kick the Tories out and get people into power who really care about the people of this country and work toward a more equitable society.
posted by vacapinta at 4:20 AM on June 23, 2016 [17 favorites]


As a supporter of Scottish independence who was bitterly disappointed by the Indyref result, I might actually puke from schadenfreude overdose. The wailing about Little England's iron will being overridden by those damn Scots will be something to behold.

Yesterday, I saw a talk at Hacks & Hackers London by Joe Twyman of YouGov, about the uncertainty in referendum polling. He pointed out that YouGov don't know which way the referendum is likely to go (it's too close), though there are a few trends: for example, England and Wales are close, but Scotland and Northern Ireland lean strongly Remain (as does London, if separated). One takeaway is that, in his estimation, Leave would need a 4% lead in England to overcome Scotland/Northern Ireland. (The scenario he posited was called “Scot-blocked”, in which Scotland keeps the UK (barely) in.)

(There was also a beer poll there: a free bar offered Birra Moretti (which counted as a Remain vote) or London Pride (which counted as a Leave vote). The poll resulted in a 73% Remain victory (putting journalists/journalistic hackers alongside Guardian readers in opinion), and I witnessed a lot of people going to the bar and saying that, while they would prefer London Pride, they will take a Moretti for what it symbolises.)
posted by acb at 4:21 AM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


If we wake up tomorrow to a Leave victory, the sun will continue to rise. People will get up and go to work. The markets may punish us for a period, before remembering that none of the actual stuff of the economy has actually gone anywhere. We still have universities. Still have factories. Still have farms. Still have a highly educated, English speaking workforce. Still have an entrepreneurial culture. Still have mostly the same general regulations for public safety and quality of life as other big Western democracies. We still have massive cultural capital, a seat at the UN security council, a senior NATO membership, global military capability, and we're still a few miles off the French coast. In the medium term, we'll be fine I think.

...and the "we" that have those things just got a lot smaller.
posted by Dysk at 4:25 AM on June 23, 2016 [13 favorites]


(Because it will almost certainly not be plain sailing, life as usual for a bunch of us who are EU migrants and not part of any elite)
posted by Dysk at 4:26 AM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


rory: The pocketbook certainly matters, but for me what matters more is that we're part of the only region in the world where our citizenship is effectively like having 28 citizenships.

This is my fundamental issue with how the Remain campaign has been run. Leaving aside all the nastiness about immigration, Leave tapped offer a vision of what the UK should be. It's not a vision that I agree with, but at least they have something more profound than Remain's uninspiring appeal to the pocketbook. This is perhaps because the Tories drive the Remain campaign - the European ideal is not one they've had much time for. Even the John Oliver clip is basically 'hold your nose and vote remain, so you don't become poor(er)'. Surely there was a better story to be told.
posted by tavegyl at 4:27 AM on June 23, 2016 [6 favorites]


The comedian Daniel Kitson just sent this out on his mailing list, which is normally well written, but only really about upcoming show dates. Anyway I thought you might enjoy it.

"For just under two weeks, I've had a wonky red poster in my front room window urging passers by to vote remain. Doing my bit to get the word out. The only problem being that i live on a cul de sac and the passers by are largely limited to my neighbours, a vocal cluster of randy foxes and the occasional man from newcastle selling fish for the freezer.

I had the poster for quite a while before i put it up, it arrived from the labour party along with a reminder to pay my membership fees and for a few weeks it sat in the front room on the table. Folded up. The truth is that I was too embarrassed and frightened to put it up. I was embarrassed by the campaign to remain and i was frightened by the campaign to leave. I felt very much like everything was lurching towards something terrible and misguided and driven by the reckless, sometimes racist, rhetoric of the Campaign to leave and not being effectively opposed by a Remain campaign that was hamstrung by the complex pragmatism of its enthusiasm for Europe.

Now, I understand that it may seem insufficient to cite the mendacity and duplicity of the leave campaign as a reason for voting to Remain. But to witness the out and out lies being told, the concerted muddying of statistical water and the denigration of independent expert research has been thoroughly depressing. Watching Boris Johnson and Michael Gove acquire a sudden interest in the disenfranchised and manipulating other peoples anger and frustration in order to advance their own personal and political ambitions, happily appropriating UKIP slogans, welcoming their supporters and obviously, from time to time sanctimoniously denouncing the dog whistle horrors they secretly hope will hand them victory,

However, of course, no one wants to vote for option A just because option B is entirely populated by terrible, sickening, self interested shit bags. It's not inspiring and it doesn't make you feel like a hero, doing the right thing and taking a brave stand against the baddies. Besides, the Remain campaign has had more than its fair share of grim turnips trotting out twaddle. Not least, the prime minister, being both unable and unwilling to acknowledge that the main problems exploited by the leave campaign (lack of housing, struggling public services, low wages) were not the fault of the EU or immigration but his own Tory government and their utterly idealogical austerity politics and that actually the EU has not only provided access to a free market with the facile benefits of cheaper flights and affordable holidays and lack of roaming charges but also brought forward vital legislation on workers rights and protection from discrimination and parental leave and sickness rights and equal pay and environmental standards and human rights.

So I'm not voting Remain, simply or even mainly, in order to take a stand against Nigel Farage, Boris Jonson and Michael Gove with their courageous, privately educated, independently wealthy and media dominating underdog campaign against the establishment. I am voting Remain because Europe, at its core is about consensus and compromise and cooperation. Three things which whilst undeniably nauseating to talk about are, gallingly, in almost every situation the best or only way to find a solution.

I've gone back and forth on whether telling you this was a good thing to do what with me being a card carrying** member of the metropolitan elite tooting my opinion horn into what is, largely if not entirely, the self congratulatory echo chamber of my own mailing list. Especially since, for me, two of the lowest points of the campaign were watching Eddie Izzard on Question Time and Bob Geldoff on the Thames, seeing their failure to understand how their, doubtless well meaning, involvement was only galvanising the campaign to leave and very much playing into the idea that rich, famous people, whilst happily ensconced in their own privilege were telling the disenfranchised how to vote in order to preserve their celebrity lifestyle.

That shouldn't be the case here though, because two weeks ago I couldn't afford to buy an oreo cornetto and of course am not a celebrity. I am a known recluse.***

So the reason i have told you, is the same reason I eventually put my poster up. I was walking to meet a friend in crystal palace, where i live. I'd driven to wales the previous day and saw endless vote leave billboards in the fields lining the motorways, i'd seen placards stapled to lamp posts in the village i'm from and It had been a typically saddening day on the news, full of claims and counterclaims and falsehoods and floundering and i felt worried, deeply worried that it was over, that we were going to leave Europe. I was lost in my thoughts and isolate in my worry when I saw a little A3 Remain poster, the first one i'd seen in the whole campaign. In a shop window. A toy shop. A small Independent toy shop. And seeing that gave me such disproportionate cheer, it was incredible, It reminded me that i was not alone in my beliefs and that they weren't actually the disconnected, self involved beliefs of the liberal, metropolitan elite. They were the complicated, compromised, hopeful and optimistic beliefs of lots of people. People In all walks of life, in all sorts of areas of the country, who for all sorts of reasons rejected the implicit and explicit separatism of the leave campaign.

So i went home and put the poster up to change the minds of the foxes and the fish man.

I feel like a lot of people voting Remain aren't really banging on about it. Probably, i think, because we aren't entirely satisfied with the decision we've had to make. There are issues around Europe that we feel unhappy with, there are implicit agreements with people we dislike and there are misgivings about the campaign that have left us largely devoid of inspiration. In short, it feels less like taking a stand and more like making a compromised and conflicted decision.

But actually, making that comprised, conflicted, unsatisfying decision is taking a stand and that, i think, is the whole point.

So there you are.
Sorry its a bit late in the day, i find phrasing this sort of stuff deeply fiddly.
Good luck everyone.
GOODBYE FOREVER.

* - In fact I've already done it. Did it ages ago. In a special envelope
** - We actually have cards, they get you discounts on a subscription to the Gaurdian and free entry into Stringfellows.
*** -https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_recluses"
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 4:29 AM on June 23, 2016 [15 favorites]


Surely there was a better story to be told.

It has been nice to see on Twitter the different messages coming from other EU countries encouraging Britain to remain. Those are just a few, there was one I saw on Twitter moments that was something about croissants and notes from France. Mmmmm croissants...
posted by like_neon at 4:32 AM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Leave tapped offer a vision of what the UK should be

I.e., a rosy nostalgic view of an idealised past, before the Windrush and Beatlemania, back when children respected their elders, builder's tea had milk in it, and a man could both smoke in a pub and expect his wife to have dinner ready by the time he got home. Also: old maids cycling to communion past a village cricket match or something like that.
posted by acb at 4:33 AM on June 23, 2016 [8 favorites]


I.e., a rosy nostalgic view of an idealised past, before the Windrush and Beatlemania, back when children respected their elders, builder's tea had milk in it, and a man could both smoke in a pub and expect his wife to have dinner ready by the time he got home. Also: old maids cycling to communion past a village cricket match or something like that.

It just shows how little idea you have of what motivates Leavers. I think this is an intellectual 'here be dragons' for some Remainers.
posted by Emma May Smith at 4:39 AM on June 23, 2016 [9 favorites]


Given that the UK is generally on the right of Europe politically, leaving only seems likely to increase the influence of exploitative capitalism in the UK. If you think that a free market ideology is a bad thing, perhaps you should be more worried about the UK’s influence on Europe than Europe’s influence on the UK.
posted by Bloxworth Snout at 4:43 AM on June 23, 2016 [5 favorites]


I think Emma May Smith is absolutely right, and further I think not being able to put yourself in the mindset of the other side is a major problem in UK (and seriously in US) politics right now.
Politics should be about reaching consensus and compromise, but both sides have deeply entrenched views.
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 4:44 AM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


I saw a little A3 Remain poster, the first one i'd seen in the whole campaign. In a shop window. A toy shop. A small Independent toy shop. And seeing that gave me such disproportionate cheer, it was incredible, It reminded me that i was not alone in my beliefs

I felt a bit like that over recent days with #catsagainstbrexit and people changing their Twitter handles and icons. So this morning I changed my Twitter icon to the EU flag too, just for today; and it reminded me how much I like the EU flag. Looking at the stars in the sky makes me feel part of something bigger.
posted by rory at 4:46 AM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


There have been very few visible signs of the campaign in my corner of south-east Wales: one house with a ‘Leave’ poster in the window; and a couple of cars sporting ‘Independence Day’ stickers; and scarcely a visible sign of ‘Remain’ anywhere.

I voted Remain at 08:00 because of my pro-cosmopolitan & anti-isolationist sympathies; because I’ve benefitted from the freedom of movement within the EU, and from living & working in other EU countries, and would like others to continue to enjoy those benefits; because of the short-term economic upheaval that a Leave vote would likely cause; because of my aversion to the xenophobic elements in the Leave campaign, and despite my qualms at finding myself on the same side as Cameron, Cumberbatch & (most of) the Corporations.
posted by misteraitch at 4:51 AM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


Given that the UK is generally on the right of Europe politically, leaving only seems likely to increase the influence of exploitative capitalism in the UK. If you think that a free market ideology is a bad thing, perhaps you should be more worried about the UK’s influence on Europe than Europe’s influence on the UK.

A thousand times this. Leaving the EU will be no victory for the worker. We'll become a backwater where the right-wing will reign unchallenged and unconstrained, not a magically prosperous paradise for all.
posted by Happy Dave at 4:58 AM on June 23, 2016 [14 favorites]


tavegyl - This is my fundamental issue with how the Remain campaign has been run. Leaving aside all the nastiness about immigration, Leave tapped offer a vision of what the UK should be

Absolutely, the Leave campaign leaders are all ex-journalists and know how to provide rhetorical flourish and headline ready sound bites. They have a simple message, slogan and neologism, whereas the Remain campaign have none of that. This reflects the arguments in my opinion, on one side you have sloganeering, appeals to patriotism and racist dog whistling, and on the other a mish mash of rational arguments and appeals to authority which are more complex and difficult to convey in a sound bite friendly way. The Bremain campaign has been a sad thing to behold, if they had their chops they should have been able to reduce the Leave vote to the crazification factor mentioned above.

Emma May Smith may be right that there are some Remain voters that do not understand the motivation of the Leavers, but that works both ways. I have spent plenty of time reading about this and discussing it with anyone I could find on the Leave side, but I have heard no arguments that are solely related to EU membership. They are all issues to do with governing the UK, if you put aside the immigration issue which is the red herring/elephant in the room.
posted by asok at 5:03 AM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


not being able to put yourself in the mindset of the other side is a major problem in UK (and seriously in US) politics right now.

It benefits late capitalist 'managed' or guided democracies to encourage this ('Culture Wars'). You want the people divided into two frothing camps that loathe each other with absolute certainty, while almost never lifting the lid on the money and power relations that really affect people's lives. This referendum has just accelerated the UK along the lines set out by the US.
posted by Coda Tronca at 5:06 AM on June 23, 2016 [13 favorites]


I think Emma May Smith is absolutely right, and further I think not being able to put yourself in the mindset of the other side is a major problem in UK (and seriously in US) politics right now.

It's pretty hard to put yourself in the mindset of the Leave camp when their talking points are dogwhistle racism, outright lies or vague utopian ideals of chaos and its institutional benefits.

I mean the post-Brexit Johnson-Gove-Farage regime may be a triumph of workers rights and greater democracy but I have a strange feeling that it wouldn't be.
posted by brilliantmistake at 5:12 AM on June 23, 2016 [11 favorites]


A thousand times this. Leaving the EU will be no victory for the worker. We'll become a backwater where the right-wing will reign unchallenged and unconstrained, not a magically prosperous paradise for all.

The collapse in value of the pound after Britain's exit is also a bug rather than a feature. Actual wealth will be stored outside of Sterling, and a cheaper pound means lower labour costs. For the working people, that means fewer holidays abroad and imported goods.

And, of course, without the right to work abroad, it's not like EU workers could try their luck in, say, Germany or somewhere, unless they're highly-skilled and thus visa-worthy professionals.
posted by acb at 5:16 AM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


A big sterling deval does however allow Britain to be more attractive as a manufacturing center.

Something that will be important as you are going see meaningful reduction in GDP from Financial Services as lot of things done in the Southeast for the Eurozone will go away.
posted by JPD at 5:26 AM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


It's pretty hard to put yourself in the mindset of the Leave camp when their talking points are dogwhistle racism, outright lies or vague utopian ideals of chaos and its institutional benefits.

I mean the post-Brexit Johnson-Gove-Farage regime may be a triumph of workers rights and greater democracy but I have a strange feeling that it wouldn't be.


If you read some of the articles by John Harris he points out that the official Leave campaigners--and the big personalities--aren't at all liked by many Leavers.
posted by Emma May Smith at 5:30 AM on June 23, 2016


The whole thing is baffling. A bunch of shouty racists trying to force a country to commit economic suicide.

In the US, we call that "the Republican party"
posted by Foosnark at 5:38 AM on June 23, 2016 [17 favorites]


It's pretty hard to put yourself in the mindset of the Leave camp when their talking points are dogwhistle racism, outright lies or vague utopian ideals of chaos and its institutional benefits.

It is hard, it's very hard, but it's essential.
You can't just write of your opponents as all crazy racists or dupes. There are too many of them, maybe 50% of the country.
They believe that Brexit is right, and will do what it takes to get people to think that. Sure some arguments they may know to be weak, and some they accept because ideological zeal covers the cracks and they make themselves believe.
Are you so sure that every political argument you've ever made is rock solid, that you're not equivocating a little and lying to yourself a little because it benefits your side? Cos I've done that a ton even when I try hard not to.
It's essential that we understand why they believe what they believe.
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 5:38 AM on June 23, 2016 [11 favorites]


A big sterling deval does however allow Britain to be more attractive as a manufacturing center.

Something that will be important as you are going see meaningful reduction in GDP from Financial Services as lot of things done in the Southeast for the Eurozone will go away.


Except of course that the main economist Patrick Minford claims "leaving the EU would “mostly eliminate manufacturing”
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 5:41 AM on June 23, 2016


Oh, and in trying to remember his name I found this: Economists For Brexit
An interesting read.
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 5:42 AM on June 23, 2016


If you read some of the articles by John Harris he points out that the official Leave campaigners--and the big personalities--aren't at all liked by many Leavers.

I have, he tends to be one of the few broadsheet writers who actually goes out and talks to people and he does make some valid points.

I think he correctly identifies a huge element of the working class that feels disillusioned, unrepresented and separated from modern British society and are using the referendum as a way of giving a bloody nose to the establishment. I live in the West Midlands, that view is very common round these parts and gets twisted into anti immigration rhetoric very easily despite immigrants being the only reason cities like Birmingham still function.
posted by brilliantmistake at 5:48 AM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


The country is run by Tories, do you really think you're going to see manufacturing come back?
posted by Artw at 5:49 AM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


When we say "they", who are we talking about. I know a number of leave supporters, and it's clear that the arguments are diverse. But there is a big chunk of leave support that is not driven by anything reasonable or rational, but rather lies about Europe and immigration promulgated by a right-wing press. If leave wins today, it will, necessarily, be because of racism. The racists make up a much bigger proportion of the leave vote than any possible margin of victory.

And that's really problematic. A vote for leave will always be a victory for racism, even though a significant proportion of leave voters are not motivated by racism.

There are so many different leave arguments one could make (and I think they're all pretty weak, but that's just me) but the argument that will definitely be responsible for any win for leave is an argument that no decent person should countenance. If that happens, I think we can fairly confidently predict what the tenor of our post Brexit politics will be.

So, if you are a leaver saying people need to understand your side of things, make sure you're clear that you understand that many of the people on your side of things are there because of racism, although you are not.
posted by howfar at 5:50 AM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


The big finance outfits do their own secret exit polls as the day goes on so look for currency speculation as well if you understand that stuff

GBP/USD is currently at $1.49. That's up from $1.47 yesterday and $1.40 last week.

The markets are betting on Remain.
posted by plep at 5:51 AM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


When we say "they", who are we talking about.

I was speaking generally about any situation where there is a Them and an Us.

So, if you are a leaver saying people need to understand your side of things...

I voted Remain. I want to understand why many people believe (and strongly) that the answer is Leave (Or take any political position that I disagree with) because if you don't you end up with two sides, hiding in trenches throwing ineffectual rhetoric and bile at each other, that does nothing but make each trench deeper.
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 6:03 AM on June 23, 2016 [4 favorites]


The big finance outfits do their own secret exit polls as the day goes on so look for currency speculation as well if you understand that stuff

Also gambling companies have the odds in favour of Remain (but you can't see them if you are viewing the internet within the UK).
posted by like_neon at 6:06 AM on June 23, 2016


But you can see an aggregation of them here
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 6:08 AM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


I notice that Patrick Minford, the pro-Brexit economist, is quoted here in the Guardian:
But Minford says it would let businesses spread their wings. He would offset damage to industries protected by high tariffs with some short-term subsidy and by scrapping regulations in areas such as working hours, gender equality and climate change.
That's not a vision of the future UK that I find in any way appealing.
posted by Azara at 6:10 AM on June 23, 2016 [27 favorites]


I expect Remain will win, but in a few areas they could receive less than a third of the vote, and in many less than 40%. Distribution of votes in this referendum will be lumpy and uneven. The lower the margin of the Remain win the more salient this polarization will be for future politics. If UKIP continue to be the only party speaking to one side of this, then heaven can't help us.
posted by Emma May Smith at 6:11 AM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


what matters more is that we're part of the only region in the world where our citizenship is effectively like having 28 citizenships. There's nowhere else like it. If you're from Australia or New Zealand, you have something roughly equivalent in respect of one another; or if you're from the US and Canada.
The US and Canada really isn't like that. I'm Canadian and my wife is American and so we went through the easiest possible route for her to immigrate to Canada after we married. It took $2500 in fees, 120 pages of paperwork and 1.5 years for her to get a permit to live here.

NAFTA does have a special work permit for people in a small list of particular job titles and certifications to work as a contractor. But because I'm a Software Engineer with 20 years of experience but no bachelors degree, rather than a Systems Analyst with a bachelors degree (in any subject), it does not apply to me (which is especially funny because I work remotely for a US company as a contractor while living in Canada, but as soon as I cross the border I can't work for them anymore). Also, that permit has to be renewed every year and only applies while you're working in that particular field.

Border controls between the US and Canada have only gotten stricter since NAFTA. It used to be pretty normal for small border crossings to be largely unguarded and basically on the honour system but there's nothing like that anymore.

I inherited Dutch (and therefore EU) citizenship from my parents (and my children have inherited it from me) and am watching this referendum very closely. Mostly for selfish reasons I really hope Remain wins because I don't want to see copycat referendums in places like the Netherlands and risk seeing the EU disintegrate, and I want my family and my children to have the widest possible choice of where to live and work. I'm generally in favour of things like Quebec, Flemish, Scottish and Catalonian independence while strengthening international institutions like the EU.
posted by borsboom at 6:14 AM on June 23, 2016 [13 favorites]


I voted Remain because I do not want to be metaphorically punched in the face.

I'm very concerned about a possible Leave victory and I won't be at ease unless my favoured result is guaranteed.

The Remain campaign has been kind of hopeless; officially lead by Osborne and Cameron, who have both mostly focused on the economy and house prices. Things which a lot of the disillusioned won't be concerned by, as they are directly looking for acceptable jobs, affordable housing and a decent safety net. Obviously the economy has a big knock-on effect to these, but the lower-level stuff is ignored by the Etonites. Probably because it's their fault the concerns have continued being garbage.
posted by bumcivilian at 6:18 AM on June 23, 2016 [6 favorites]


Looking forward to reading more comments here, as the day progresses.

Our last referendum (IIRC) kicked a better voting system, AV, into the long grass for another generation, again as a result of lies, emotional manipulation, and appeals to ignorance from the right.

This referendum is a chance for a significant land-grab by the populist right, and instinctively I'm against majority decisions like this; the parliamentary system is successful for a reason.

Are there m/any cases where national referenda are successfully used as tools by progressives?
posted by Quagkapi at 6:24 AM on June 23, 2016


The US and Canada really isn't like that.

Thanks - I was going by memories from 15 years ago of my wife's rights to live and work in the US without a visa as a Canadian citizen, but if that's changed then it shows even more clearly what a privilege EU citizens enjoy. And we can add Switzerland and Norway to the list of 28, effectively, as they allow freedom of movement as part of buying into the EU free trade area.

As an Australian citizen I was able to live and work freely in New Zealand twenty years ago, and still would be as far as I'm aware (I'm dual Aust./UK now), but there's been considerable tightening up of welfare agreements between the two, so it's not quite as if we're a citizen of both by being a citizen of one.
posted by rory at 6:27 AM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]




I voted.

I'm a UK expat, now Australian citizen. That makes me a migrant.

Two weeks ago, when the polling started to get a bit squeaky, I registered to vote and arranged a proxy. My sister (a witch) became The Witch with Two Votes.

She has been using this to annoy the "Leave" brigade in the rural southwest:

"Well, I'm sure you'll vote as you see fit. Everybody gets one vote. Except me. I get two, of course."

Apparently, some people find this infuriating.
posted by Combat Wombat at 6:45 AM on June 23, 2016 [35 favorites]


The Grindr view of the EU Ref

Guys who think 'long and hard'...
posted by Coda Tronca at 6:51 AM on June 23, 2016


Are there m/any cases where national referenda are successfully used as tools by progressives?

Here in Ireland the written Constitution can only be amended by a referendum, so we have lots of examples, as you can see in the Wikipedia list.

Because our 1937 Constitution was presented by de Valera at the height of 1930s conservatism, there were some dreadful things in it by modern standards, which have been gradually chipped away.
I have voted in referendums to (among other things):
-allow votes for non-citizens
-remove the ban on divorce
-ratify the Good Friday agreement
-put a ban on capital punishment into the Constitution
-allow same-sex marriage
which I think are overall fairly progressive.

Because they are more common, voters are more familiar with the idea of referendums, and there is a better framework in place. Since the point is to amend the Constitution, the exact wording is normally well thrashed out beforehand, and people vote on a specific proposal rather than a general intent. The Referendum Commission is normally chaired by a High Court Judge (or retired Supreme Court Judge) and has a duty to disseminate information from a neutral standpoint.
posted by Azara at 6:57 AM on June 23, 2016 [15 favorites]


Brexit would suck for England. Scotland would eventually split off. Europe would have one less whiner onboard and would likely move closer to the unitary state most other members think it should become. From an outsider's perspective it would be a much more interesting timeline.
posted by Meatbomb at 6:57 AM on June 23, 2016


And we can add Switzerland and Norway to the list of 28, effectively, as they allow freedom of movement as part of buying into the EU free trade area.

And Iceland and Liechtenstein, as part of the EEA. Who wouldn't want freedom to live in Iceland?

For what it's worth, Switzerland isn't part of the EEA, but it does have a special agreement in place which means there is 'effectively' free movement. But this is more provisional than in Norway or Iceland.

Switzerland is of course a special case in many ways. Even more special than Blighty. An island but surrounded by mountains and not water.
posted by plep at 6:58 AM on June 23, 2016


It's for the people who have the education, money, resources and social capital to do things like take advantage of an Erasmus year in Paris or a cheaper university education in Amsterdam or a high-end job in Frankfurt.

Yet some of the same people who feel that way will turn around and complain about EU migrants coming here to take their blue-collar jobs. So, is freedom of movement only for financiers in Frankfurt, or is it for manual workers too? If you can travel to Prague for a stag weekend, you could travel there for a job.
posted by rory at 7:01 AM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


If you can travel to Prague for a stag weekend, you could travel there for a job.

If you want to earn an average of 793 Euros a month you can.
posted by Coda Tronca at 7:06 AM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


If you want to earn an average of 793 Euros a month you can.


I suspect Czechs find it more pleasant to get money by finding scutwork in England than by cleaning up English punter vomit on their own streets.
posted by ocschwar at 7:08 AM on June 23, 2016


If you can travel to Prague for a stag weekend, you could travel there for a job.
I mean, you could in theory, but for how many working-class people would that actually make sense?
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 7:08 AM on June 23, 2016


Farage's 'Independence Day' video reminds me of something...
posted by punilux at 7:10 AM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


Switzerland is of course a special case in many ways. Even more special than Blighty. An island but surrounded by mountains and not water.

And currently in grave danger of tearing up its special agreements, because its constitution was amended two and a half years ago (on an initiative by our own shouty racist party) to require immigration quotas, which is anathema to the free movement provisions of those agreements, and to prohibit the government from signing any treaties in conflict with immigration quotas in the meantime. The government has been trying to find some way off the collision course ever since.

If Brexit happens, the Brussels side of discussions to fix the Switzerland MEI mess will be tied up until after the 9 Feb 2017 cutoff date. If that happens, Switzerland-EU relations revert to a 1970s era tariff agreement, which will be... messy.

So vote Remain, and stick it to the shouty racists in two countries at once.
posted by Vetinari at 7:13 AM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


Hedge funds dumping big money into betting markets, to adjust the odds because the value of the pound is heavily correlated to the likelihood of leaving the EU.
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 7:16 AM on June 23, 2016 [5 favorites]


If you can travel to Prague for a stag weekend, you could travel there for a job.

Get on your bike was an unpleasant and dismissive argument when Norman Tebbit used it and it's not improved with age.
posted by SometimeNextMonth at 7:20 AM on June 23, 2016 [5 favorites]


oh, thanks for that. i just looked at those odds and was wondering why they seemed so skewed.
posted by andrewcooke at 7:21 AM on June 23, 2016


So vote Remain, and stick it to the shouty racists in two countries at once.


Not that I object to sticking it to shouty racists, but it bears remembering that EU policy towards Greece had a lot to do with the emergence and swelling of the Golden Dawn movement, and those racists have been more than just shouty.
posted by ocschwar at 7:21 AM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Money may be piling into betting odds late, but I'm pretty sure prediction markets have been unwavering for Remain ever since the referendum announcement.
posted by Coda Tronca at 7:22 AM on June 23, 2016


For the many people who are just getting by month-to-month in insecure work, it doesn't appear at first glance to have have a great deal of relevance to daily life.

For many people getting by month-to-month add you describe, the EU is supremely relevant, because it's the only thing guaranteeing us the right to continue to eke out that meagre life here. Somehow we - as people - are continually ignored in this debate.
posted by Dysk at 7:23 AM on June 23, 2016 [5 favorites]


am i right in thinking that betting on remain would hedge against short positions on the pound? so maybe the funds were going short on the pound, expecting leave to win, and then with the murder of jo cox they started to get cold feet and needed some way to cover their positions?
posted by andrewcooke at 7:26 AM on June 23, 2016


All too often, it feels like the EU is a thing that benefits the few, rather than the many. It's for the people who have the education, money, resources and social capital to do things like take advantage of an Erasmus year in Paris or a cheaper university education in Amsterdam or a high-end job in Frankfurt.
This is a great point. And then that privileged few go on Twitter or other parts of the liberal internet and denigrate leavers using the pitiless and othering language of contemporary anti-racism. If they're all just "bigots" and "racists," after all, their concerns can be summarily dismissed as essentially wrong and not worth engaging with. There's a refusal to understand or empathise coming from a certain section of the liberal left that I find disturbing. It increasingly reads as a form of class snobbery directed at those who haven't had access to the (considerable) economic and educational advantages of those pointing the finger.
posted by Sonny Jim at 7:33 AM on June 23, 2016 [16 favorites]


The #usepens hashtag is a bit worrying.
S many people are convinced that their vote might be changed that if the count is close I don't see them accepting it.
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 7:34 AM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Mod note: Couple of comments deleted. "You're a liar" is not a good way to participate in a conversation here.
posted by LobsterMitten (staff) at 7:42 AM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Even if you hate AA Gill (which I don't), it's hard to beat his recent summary of the Brexiteers' case.
posted by Paul Slade at 7:43 AM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Is using pens even allowed? I'm pretty sure that here in Canada, using anything other than the provided pencil would spoil your ballot.
posted by rodlymight at 7:45 AM on June 23, 2016


Hedge funds dumping big money into betting markets, to adjust the odds because the value of the pound is heavily correlated to the likelihood of leaving the EU.

ew. ZeroHedge link.
posted by JPD at 7:46 AM on June 23, 2016


Brexit would suck for England. Scotland would eventually split off.

And quite possibly Northern Ireland. A weird way for reunification to happen, but I'm sure the republicans would take it.
posted by bonehead at 7:48 AM on June 23, 2016 [4 favorites]


Did David Cameron not say that he will campaign to leave if his demands were not met last year? Were WW3 and other economic apocalyptic scenarios not so realistic back then?
posted by asra at 7:52 AM on June 23, 2016


The rules on ballot papers are fairly lax. If you've made a single indication of what vote you want then it will be counted. Doesn't matter how.
Here is a pdf (sorry) of some examples
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 7:53 AM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Oh also, is ZeroHedge bad? Like a finance DailyMail? I'd not seen it before.
(Do we have a page on the wiki for place we should avoid linking?)
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 7:54 AM on June 23, 2016


All too often, it feels like the EU is a thing that benefits the few, rather than the many. It's for the people who have the education, money, resources and social capital to do things like take advantage of an Erasmus year in Paris or a cheaper university education in Amsterdam or a high-end job in Frankfurt.

What about the people employed in huge manufacturing plants sited in the UK to export to the EU? Or the working class people enjoying their retirements in Spain? Or flying all over Europe on cheap flights? Or enjoying paternity or maternity leave?

When I think of a privileged few Boris Johnson comes to mind a bit quicker than a few muesli slippered Guardianistas.
posted by brilliantmistake at 7:56 AM on June 23, 2016 [5 favorites]


Oh also, is ZeroHedge bad? Like a finance DailyMail? I'd not seen it before.

oh god. it's speculative, unreliable and certainly not lefty. but at times it can also be interesting and thought provoking. so do we have to increase the echo chamber to 11 with additional informal rules about things We Must Not Speak About?
posted by andrewcooke at 7:59 AM on June 23, 2016 [7 favorites]


certainly not lefty

You can get snarked on here for linking to wsws.org or Counterpunch.
posted by Coda Tronca at 8:02 AM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


There's a refusal to understand or empathise coming from a certain section of the liberal left that I find disturbing. It increasingly reads as a form of class snobbery directed at those who haven't had access to the (considerable) economic and educational advantages of those pointing the finger.

Again, theres this assumption that Remain voters/ left liberals are all ivory tower elitists who've never met a poor person in their lives. I am working class. These people are my parents, the people I grew up with, my family and friends and colleagues . I know them. That doesn't mean I need to empathise with their concerns that forrins are coming over here and stealing their jobs and their houses.
posted by threetwentytwo at 8:17 AM on June 23, 2016 [18 favorites]


Or enjoying paternity or maternity leave?

Mothers in the UK enjoy more maternity leave than the minimum set out under EU law. The same goes for a number of workers' benefits which go beyond the minimum. The government could cut them without breaking EU rules if it thought taking away holidays would get it more votes. Of course, abolishing--or even cutting--such rights would be politically very difficult.

In a similar vein, I've read that leaving the EU would destroy LGBT rights. Given that the UK has one of the best set of LGBT rights in the world and much, much better than some EU countries, this is rather unlikely. In 2014, ILGA gave the UK a score of 82%, the highest in the whole of Europe. Latvia and Cyprus, both EU members, scored 20%.
posted by Emma May Smith at 8:21 AM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


I just wish I could find a more nuanced critique of the EU that doesn't revolve around Brexiter xenophobia. I would be shocked to learn that every single Brexiter is racist and/or xenophobic, so there must be more to "England first!" than jackboots and shaved heads and shooting MPs. But it's hard, as an American, to find good reporting that doesn't assume I'm already an expert in all things EU. I've read a few grumblings about how infighting makes the response to crises (ie: the Greek economy) glacial and ineffective, but I honestly have less understanding of the day-to-day of EU government than I'd like. If anyone has any suggestions for a decent book or article on the history of the EU and reasonably objective critiques of the problems with its operation I'd love to hear them.

I strongly suspect, but cannot prove, that the UK needs the EU more than the EU needs the UK. I heard a lovely gentleman from Wales on NPR talking about his sheep and cow farm. He is freaking out because 40% of his income is from EU subsidies. He has little to no hope that the British Parliament was going to replace his subsidy in the event of Brexit.
posted by xyzzy at 8:28 AM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


xyzzy - Kenan Malik provides a more measured take here, including noting the role of 'Fortress Europe' in limiting migration and closing borders for those outside the EU magic circle.
posted by Abiezer at 8:37 AM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


I strongly suspect, but cannot prove, that the UK needs the EU more than the EU needs the UK. I heard a lovely gentleman from Wales on NPR talking about his sheep and cow farm. He is freaking out because 40% of his income is from EU subsidies. He has little to no hope that the British Parliament was going to replace his subsidy in the event of Brexit.

About 45% of the EU's budget goes on CAP, which is basically (though it's a little more complicated) farm subsidies. The UK doesn't benefit from this hugely because of the tiny size of its farming sector (much less than 1% of GDP). The UK actually gets a rebate to make up for how little it receives in farm subsidies compared to how much it pays into the EU. There's a good argument that the CAP doesn't really work for the UK's farming sector: overpaying large producers and keeping small inefficient farmers in business. Were the UK to leave, however, it would be able to remove tariffs on food imported from outside the EU which would make food cheaper and, arguably, help farmers in less economically developed countries.

Nothing I've said above is definitive, naturally, and you might hear opposing arguments about the CAP. But it's certainly not easy to sort out the benefits of EU membership based on a single viewpoint.
posted by Emma May Smith at 8:43 AM on June 23, 2016


If the vote is very close, either way, you'll certainly see a renewed vigor in the Scottish (and perhaps Welsh) independence movement, which will almost certainly pass this time. Basically, by trying to mollify this inter-party squabble, Cameron may very well initiate the political partition of the UK as we know it.
posted by Chrischris at 8:44 AM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Thanks Azara, that's a really good list. I am duly convinced that they can be used for good.

Unfortunately, not this time. Not least because the entire motivation behind this referendum is placation of certain parts of the Conservative party, and a chance at regaining some ground from Farage's BNP-lite. This was always going to be a battle fought on their blood-stained turf. I wonder to what extent Cameron appreciated that.

It looks like Remain will win (84%!), but at a terrible cost, and I don't see UKIP and the restless Tories going away. It has not been worth it.

My fear is more referenda, called at the whim of the right, whenever they think they can make gains.
posted by Quagkapi at 8:58 AM on June 23, 2016


(* to be clear, that's a current 84% chance of Remain according to betting markets - not the vote split, which I guess will be within 5% of 50-50.)
posted by Quagkapi at 9:01 AM on June 23, 2016


If the vote is very close, either way, you'll certainly see a renewed vigor in the Scottish (and perhaps Welsh) independence movement, which will almost certainly pass this time. Basically, by trying to mollify this inter-party squabble, Cameron may very well initiate the political partition of the UK as we know it.

I'd love to see a federal system in the UK, rather than the constitutional hodgepodge we have today. Though the problem with that is, given that England constitutes about 80% of the population of the UK, there is no way that such an arrangement could be made to work without breaking England up into separate states (something which would meet resistance, as all such plans do).
posted by acb at 9:01 AM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Long read on farming in the UK and EU referendum, previously.
What is clear is that leaving the EU would leave the British countryside more vulnerable. It takes Britain out of a protected political space in which there is a fiercely contested balance of power between environmentalists and agribusiness into an open global arena where agribusiness has the muscle.

What leaving the EU would do would be to leave Britain scrambling to find its niche in a harsher, more extreme environment of intercontinental deals. The history of privatisation, the failure to regulate Britain’s wretched banks and the remorseless attacks on the BBC and the NHS all indicate that Britain’s government has been rewired to accommodate multinational corporate lobbying at the citizen’s expense. Why should it be any different for farmers outside the Common Agricultural Policy?
posted by asok at 9:03 AM on June 23, 2016 [5 favorites]


And if it happens doesn't Scotland then Scotleave and rejoin the EU?

And if *that* happens, then Mrs 43rd and I will quite possibly be piling our belongings into the car and heading North...
posted by 43rdAnd9th at 9:04 AM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


Wow that EU myths site is fascinating reading of how what appears to be intentional whisper down the lane misreadings of EU law are presented as headlines. This one on the myth of the EU "banning" beaches is a nice succinct example. TL;DR: the EU doesn't open or close beaches. Instead the directive requires monitoring and informing the public of the levels of E-coli and faecal streptococci in bathing waters. If anything the EU directive underplays the risk; the lowest bathing water rating is poor, their is no "OMG, you are bathing in 20% raw sewage, get out, get out, get out" rating.
posted by Mitheral at 9:05 AM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


(* to be clear, that's a current 84% chance of Remain according to betting markets - not the vote split, which I guess will be within 5% of 50-50.)

A narrow Remain victory isn't so much a victory as a temporary pulling back from the abyss, and the UK's Europhobic fewer becoming somewhat less acute. Farage and co. will still be causing strife, and politicians (mostly Tory, though possibly Labour as well) will still find that blaming Jacques and Fritz and their wine-drinking, garlic-eating buddies in Brussels for their constituents' problems can buy a lot of electoral capital. Perhaps at some point a crisis will pull Britain to another referendum, or even a unilateral declaration of secession. This will continue for another generation at least, until the people who grew up partying in Amsterdam every other weekend and holidaying in Ibiza are in charge.
posted by acb at 9:06 AM on June 23, 2016


Get on your bike was an unpleasant and dismissive argument when Norman Tebbit used it and it's not improved with age.

That misses the point of what I was arguing there, which was that people claiming that the freedom to live and work on the continent is only for the well-off while simultaneously complaining about manual labourers exercising their freedom of movement to come here are glossing over the fact that freedom of movement in the EU is for everyone in all directions. The point about stag weekends is that the cost of travel isn't the barrier it once was: this is the age of EasyJet and Ryanair. People have all sorts of options today that we didn't have in 1975.

If you were faced with making £73 a week on Jobseekers Allowance in London or £140/week working in Prague (which is what €793/month is roughly worth at the moment), wouldn't you be tempted? I know it wouldn't be right for everybody, but it would be for some. (It wouldn't have to be Prague, though - it could be anywhere in Europe.)

I would never dismiss anyone who didn't want to move to a whole other country for work, but what about those who do? A sizable part of the country has been dismissing the EU citizens who've come here to work.
posted by rory at 9:16 AM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


All too often, it feels like the EU is a thing that benefits the few, rather than the many.

Pay attention to the word choice. It's not about facts, it's about perception.

What about the people employed in huge manufacturing plants sited in the UK to export to the EU? Or the working class people enjoying their retirements in Spain? Or flying all over Europe on cheap flights? Or enjoying paternity or maternity leave?


If they FEEL like the EU doesn't benefit them, then someone aught to change their perception of the EU's benefits since their perception flies in the face of the facts.

Hopefully most of those folks understand what the EU does for them, but what about their neighbors that don't experience those benefits? Do they realize that their neighbors do? Whether or not people actually do benefit from membership in the EU, they won't vote to stay if their perception is that it doesn't benefits them. It's a case where perception is reality.
posted by VTX at 9:21 AM on June 23, 2016


And if it happens doesn't Scotland then Scotleave and rejoin the EU?

Would also accept Scotdaddle, Abscot, or Scoot-land,
posted by nom de poop at 9:22 AM on June 23, 2016 [23 favorites]


If people can't assume good faith, assume the other side is arguing their case reasonably and legitimately, if people immediately rush to assume there's some giant conspiracy against their side of the argument... well, that's the sort of breeding ground where extremism flourishes. It needs to be nipped in the bud now somehow before it really takes hold

By my definition, the political assassination of a sitting MP means that it's rather too late - it's taken hold.
posted by Dysk at 9:27 AM on June 23, 2016 [12 favorites]


You guys don't use pens to mark ballots?

Every time I've voted, and not used a touch-screen machine, it was with a felt tip pen they gave me to mark a "connect-the-lines" electronically-scanned ballot.
posted by Huffy Puffy at 9:27 AM on June 23, 2016


What is clear is that leaving the EU would leave the British countryside more vulnerable. It takes Britain out of a protected political space in which there is a fiercely contested balance of power between environmentalists and agribusiness into an open global arena where agribusiness has the muscle.

Yeah, American agribusiness would L-O-V-E a Brexit. Within 10 years, every farm in England would either be some hippy organic toy farm or just another arable cog in the Monsanto-Bayer-Deere international conglomerate. They can't survive without EU subsidies now. Hell, they can't even compete with their European compatriots when it comes to yield and pricing, much less Canada and America.
posted by Chrischris at 9:31 AM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Huffy Puffy, I was shocked the first time I voted here, but it typically involves making an x in a square on a flimsy piece of paper with one of those golf pencils. I felt like I was voting for class president in grade school.
posted by nangua at 9:31 AM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


You guys don't use pens to mark ballots?

UK ballots are (mostly) all hand counted. It's charming.
posted by brilliantmistake at 9:32 AM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


As you can imagine, I'm not exactly a big fan of the EU. At least the the current state where the EU has strayed so far from an entity to promote uniform growth across Europe as means to uphold social democracy / democratic socialism values in Europe to prevent the rise of authoritarian communism and fascism, and more of a platform for the finance industry to do as they please, or watching it consider welcoming a two-bit fascist like Erdogan. So, yeah, the EU has a lot of problems going right now, and I'm not 100% sure where I'd put a cross if the same referendum was held here.

But the real question - more than the IMGRUNTS! vs WWIII - is if Torylandia and Blairiteshire would be any different when it comes of making life better for the common citizen without EU "meddling", or the dismantling of the remains of public service would continue for the benefit of the private sector. But that is a question I'm guessing neither side wants to discuss, because most of them would start with "well, actually...."

(out of a pure selfish desire to see what would happen on the cover of The Sun, I'd like to see Remain gain the edge thanks to massive support from Scotland)
posted by lmfsilva at 9:36 AM on June 23, 2016


Lexit seems like the UK homologue of Bernie or Bust.
posted by dhens at 9:38 AM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


You guys don't use pens to mark ballots?

UK ballots are (mostly) all hand counted. It's charming.


Nobody asks for an id either. And, yes, they provide pencils and it is hand-counted.
My wife was stunned by all this and when she discovered this, was told by a poll worker "Madame, in this country we operate on trust!"
posted by vacapinta at 9:38 AM on June 23, 2016 [7 favorites]


There were some tests of electronic voting machines and internet voting in the UK in the early 2000s (I voted online for the novelty) but there were sufficient problems that AFAIK they're never been repeated and we do everything with pencils and bits of paper. The system seems to work pretty well, so I don't think there's any move to change it.

You also don't have to show any ID at the polling station, you can just turn up and tell them your name and address and they tick you off the list.
posted by penguinliz at 9:38 AM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


I would never dismiss anyone who didn't want to move to a whole other country for work, but what about those who do? A sizable part of the country has been dismissing the EU citizens who've come here to work.

I think the difference comes down to economic strategies. Nobody wants to work just to survive. Everybody wants a nice place to live and the hope of something better. EU migrants who come to the UK from Eastern Europe may well simply be here temporarily til they've saved enough money. The goal being to return home with enough to start their own business or buy a house or whatever. Nobody wants to pick potatoes forever. Others with skills may prefer to stay and take advantage of opportunities for better pay which aren't available at home.

Moving out to Czechia from the UK would mean that your chances of coming home are low. You might earn enough to live on, but not enough to save and invest back in England. It's a one way journey for the unskilled. And the attractions of living outside your home country are not that great when you're on a low income. There's not going to be some wonderful cosmopolitan society in a city for you. All the comfortable knowns and webs of community will be broken and replaced with...what?

Wealthy and skilled people can and do migrate all over. Poor and unskilled from low to high pay areas, even if they intend to return. It doesn't make any sense for the poor to leave to a place of lower pay when a great deal of their assets are intangible links and reciprocal relationships.
posted by Emma May Smith at 9:42 AM on June 23, 2016 [6 favorites]


I find it interesting and amusing that for this referendum at least, the EU has found an ally with progressives. I mean, the EU is probably the biggest, most badass Neoliberal corporatist institutions in history. Watching Corbyn give his support to the EU through gritted teeth is fun.

I've encountered this idea a few times while watching the debate from Afar (Tennessee, where England is widely believed to be somewhere in Central Asia and Brexit is what your Dad uses to stave off baldness), and I find it kind of confusing. I'm not an expert on EU economic policy, but just a cursory glance at the Gini Index for family income for the relevant states raises questions:

Great Britain: 32.4
European Union as a whole: 30.9
France 30.1
Germany 27.0

Given that "neoliberalism" is generally held by its critics to increase income inequality, is seems odd that the EU is doing somewhat better than Great Britain in that regard and that the two other largest EU economies are as well. Insofar as I've read up on recent British economic history, the consensus seems to be that the most significant influences on the past twenty years of economic life - including growing income inequality and the decline of economic security, the rise in unemployment, etc. has been internal British politics, that is the policies of first Margaret Thatcher's government and then the following conservative and New Labor leaders. Thatcher certainly never gave much indication that her policies were being dictated from Brussels.

I.e., a rosy nostalgic view of an idealised past, before the Windrush and Beatlemania, back when children respected their elders, builder's tea had milk in it, and a man could both smoke in a pub and expect his wife to have dinner ready by the time he got home. Also: old maids cycling to communion past a village cricket match or something like that.

It just shows how little idea you have of what motivates Leavers. I think this is an intellectual 'here be dragons' for some Remainers.


Yeah. What I'm seeing more of is nostalgia (if we need to call it that) for the postwar stability and prosperity, rather than this odd pastiche of prewar agrarianism, which isn't even within living memory of anyone under eighty. For a lot of people - and this isn't just true of Great Britain - the traumatic economic changes of the past thirty years have been intertwined in lived experience with changes in immigration, social mores, and political and media culture that in some cases have been positive (or at any rate are unrelated to pocketbook erosion), but which all sort of feel like the same giant package.

Given that the UK is generally on the right of Europe politically, leaving only seems likely to increase the influence of exploitative capitalism in the UK. If you think that a free market ideology is a bad thing, perhaps you should be more worried about the UK’s influence on Europe than Europe’s influence on the UK.

This was something I felt powerfully during the arguments over Grexit (even as Greece had and has a vastly more powerful case for feeling put-upon): is it true that leaving the EU actually, objectively (to use an old Marxist canard) would give a national government greater leeway to improve or even to more freely determine its economic situation? The broader global economy has plenty of other constraints and ruthless pressures, some of which were buffered by being part of the EU. The analogy I came to was being part of a labor union - you're going to have to take some shit from the reps, some of whom are more concerned about their own jobs and perks than they are about you, but leaving means stepping into a different power relationship, that between you and your employer. That step might still be worth taking, if the union is truly awful, but you need to think about it and balance the two squarely. I saw a lot of Leftist commentators on Grexit (not actual Greeks, mainly) talking about Greece "reasserting its sovereignty", as if it would then be sitting at the table as a equal with the USA, or Turkey, or China. Instead it would have been a small, poor state in a world with no empathy or respect whatever for such. Again, possibly still worth it, but you have to weigh the option honestly and carefully.

Great Britain, if it leaves will (even if it loses Scotland) have a much better position as an independent power than Greece would have, but at the same time they're still not going to be free to pursue whatever choices they want economically or politically (whether Rightist fantasies of Festung Brittanica or Leftist dreams of rebuilding Old Labor's Camelot of 1945-1972). Will exchanging the problems of inside the EU for the problems of outside the EU make it easier for a Leftist movement inside Britain to make the case for, or a British government to carry out, more egalitarian economic policies, or not?

And given, as I pointed out above, the demonstrated capacity of other large states to achieve greater income equality within the bounds of the EU, it's worth asking the question of whether the latter is actually a, much less the main, purveyor of "neoliberalism" or whether it's a convenient scapegoat for the failure of the British Left (as yet, at least) to recover from the one-two-three gut punch of Thatcherism, the longest suicide note in history, and Tony Blair's dead-end New Labour detour? And if so, who benefits most from that narrative?
posted by AdamCSnider at 9:42 AM on June 23, 2016 [7 favorites]


The UK has terrible polling but at least it has off-track betting. Being here in Dudley, unable to vote, working full time in a job only I could appreciate, being surrounded by people who are passionately attempting a work-life balance, hearing and reading arguments for months on end. I cannot get over the sheer racism of the leave campaign and how urgently they embraced UKIP as a driver for what has been a very ugly campaign. There is certainly a generational divide at the heart of this, but even that is cleaved. I hope that Britain remains in Europe.
I want to address the point of politicians queuing up to say their piece about leaving or remaining. Many parties missed the opportunity to use the referendum to actually organise for future elections because local elections will not be for another two years. The government perfectly timed the referendum to a time when local organisers would be financially exhausted.
If the UK does leave, it will be awful for a while. I cannot predict what will happen in my industries because no one is willing to discuss it. That is the most hostile part.
posted by parmanparman at 9:46 AM on June 23, 2016


Right. I'm going to vote. If there's no line I'll be back in ten minutes. I'll not take my poll card and see how easy it is to vote on trust.
posted by Emma May Smith at 9:54 AM on June 23, 2016


You also don't have to show any ID at the polling station, you can just turn up and tell them your name and address and they tick you off the list.

Which is exactly how I vote in New York City. ID requirements vary by location.
posted by gaspode at 9:55 AM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Even if you hate AA Gill (which I don't),

Nothing against you personally, but I'm never going to take a recommendation that starts off by proclaiming a lack of hatred for a man who killed a sentient primate for a laugh.
posted by howfar at 10:03 AM on June 23, 2016 [5 favorites]


The Guardian has a story on the #usepens whackjobbery. I particularly liked this comment:
FFS there are easier ways of rigging an election than issuing MI5 with erasers!
posted by Sonny Jim at 10:04 AM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


Okay, I'm back, and I've got stats.

My polling station covers about 2,230 registered voters.
I was the 863rd person to vote.
The staff expected another 400 votes in the next four hours.
Thus about 1,250 will have voted in person where I live.
However, a certain number of the 2,230 in the area have postal votes.
Return rate for postal votes at that station was 85%

I live in an area which is considered "Strong Leave".
posted by Emma May Smith at 10:08 AM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


just this guy, #usepens is a hilarious hashtag that's been set up to troll the Daily Mail. The story was that MI5 were looming - with a stockpile of rubbers, or erasers as some may know them - ready to erase vote exit ballot papers.

The Mail fell for it. Right there, they're re-tweeting the comedian who started the whole thing, quite unknowingly and quite sincerely. The exit team have been pretty fact-thin. Downright liars, some would say. That they re-tweet ridiculous fake conspiracies that portray them the victim is unsurprising.

Fanks, Mail. Fail. (the guys who proudly backed the Blackshirts and Hitler, in their part for European unity).

The question many are seeing in the referendum is not 'do we leave Europe' but 'have you been convinced that Boris Johnson-created 'eurocrats' are to blame for your economic situation and not 25 years of Reagan/Thatcherite selling of state assets for a song to the emergent neoliberal class'. This is a question that needs addressing, but they're more excited to see an opportunity to express small-minded racism and rejoice in unthinking nationalism instead. For that, I have little sympathy.
posted by davemee at 10:12 AM on June 23, 2016 [4 favorites]


I'm 44 and I've never taken ID or a poll card to vote in any UK election.
posted by Coda Tronca at 10:18 AM on June 23, 2016


Wish I'd been on the ball enough to do stats. Healthy number queueing at my inner city Brum polling station just now though, did bring my polling card but didn't need it.

Charmed as ever by the row of tiny coats on pegs (our station is a nursery school).
posted by brilliantmistake at 10:30 AM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]




"Now look closely, 007, this is a standard issue rubber. Now I know you've not used one of these in years, so..."
posted by Huffy Puffy at 10:53 AM on June 23, 2016 [8 favorites]


FP: Welcome to the Fantasy Island of Little England,

I've long found it curious how "Little Englander" has become a term of abuse in the modern sense. The original Little Englanders were abusively named so because of their anti-Empire and anti-colonialism and pro-Home Rule opinions. If you didn't want to conquer the world, steal land from its rightful owners, oppress the Irish, and continually spread and exert your influence, you were a contemptible Little Englander. "Great Britain" meant Empire and White Man's Burden and believing that you had a god-given right to rule.
posted by Emma May Smith at 11:00 AM on June 23, 2016 [5 favorites]


or watching it consider welcoming a two-bit fascist like Erdogan.

No fan of Erdogan, but wouldn't Turkiye joining the EU help counter its fundamentalist and Kurdophobic drift (veer)? Apologies if this seems naive.
posted by aught at 11:03 AM on June 23, 2016


Just been to vote and seems like theres been a fairly decent turnout- lots of people about and it's the first time we've ever had to queue at that polling station. Lots of young'uns about, including my 18 year old neighbour, who was adorably nervous about casting his first vote.
posted by threetwentytwo at 11:04 AM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Brexit: Farewell Internationalism?

Nigels against the World
Yet the Leavers are inexorably being dragged towards a vision of Britain without any such formal entanglements. In a speech on 19 April, which was hailed by most of the Brexiters as definitive, Michael Gove finally made it clear that Out means Out. Not tagging along like Norway or Switzerland, not seeking a new and complicated relationship like Canada, not a country member or a candidate member, but OUT. Gove, looking more than ever like a gleeful hamster on steroids, announced that Britain would leave the Single Market, would not seek to be part of EFTA (the organisation that includes Norway, Iceland, Switzerland and Liechtenstein), and would remain a member only of ‘the European Free Trade Zone that stretches from Iceland to the Russian border’. Alas, despite this grandiloquent description, the EFTZ exists largely in the imagination. The UK would be as Out as Bosnia, Serbia and Albania (the signal difference being that Bosnia, Serbia and Albania are all trying to get into the EU). We would be launched on a journey to become a Greater Albania. The prime minister of Albania, Edi Rama, said in response that he was ‘not convinced it would suit either our or Britain’s needs to create this new BBC: the British-Balkan Confederation.
Europe’s Sullen Child - "Would the Brexit debate have played out differently in a calmer, less crisis-ridden Europe? Maybe the threat of the UK leaving the EU would have caused citizens and politicians across Europe to think about ‘ever closer union’ and what it actually means or should mean for them. It’s a nice thought, but in reality virtually nobody in the last ten years or so has been willing to talk about what used to be known as finalité, the purported end-state of European integration."
If We Leave - "It isn’t hard to see the entire process stretching out for years, accompanied by litigation at every step. If the substance of most of our EU-derived laws and regulations stays in place, will Brexit have been worth it for the sake of what is jettisoned? One of the Brexit supporters’ main complaints is the influence of the European Court of Human Rights over UK law. But Brexit would not mark the end of that. Signing up to the European Convention of Human Rights and the jurisdiction of the Strasbourg court is a necessary condition for membership of the EU, but not the other way round: the convention and the court are not under the EU’s control. "
Left wingers for Brexit need to wake up to what they’re about to do
The stunning truth that explains the rise of the far-right in Britain and elsewhere: We're still living in a Depression—and that's giving power to far-right leaders throughout the Western world
Brexit and Trump: When politicians light xenophobic fires, everybody gets burned
more at OMNIVORE
posted by the man of twists and turns at 11:05 AM on June 23, 2016 [5 favorites]


Oh Steve Bell is quaint with his cartoon.

I expect he has a version of Low's 'Very well, alone' lined up too.
posted by Emma May Smith at 11:06 AM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]




Nick, at FlipChartFairyTales: Why I’m voting Remain
posted by the man of twists and turns at 11:20 AM on June 23, 2016


As I learned during our independence referendum, the pencils in British voting booths are apparently supposed to be wax pencils, which makes them both hard to erase and means that a sealed ballot box can survive getting immersed in water without votes becoming illegible.
posted by Happy Dave at 11:21 AM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


I wonder if economic panic caused by Brexit will be the kickoff for the next inevitable global recession.
posted by Apocryphon at 11:36 AM on June 23, 2016


There's a photo of Britain's state-of-the-art voting machines here. That one's for the AV referendum of 2011, but today's procedure was identical.
posted by Paul Slade at 11:47 AM on June 23, 2016


I believe that, all said, paper ballots, pencils, and hand counting, is likely the best way to conduct an election.
posted by Emma May Smith at 11:52 AM on June 23, 2016 [7 favorites]


There's a photo of Britain's state-of-the-art voting machines here. That one's for the AV referendum of 2011, but today's procedure was identical.

Australia does the same thing. No worries about hanging chads or mysteriously programmed Diebold machines. Admittedly they lost a box of votes last time, which (rightly) freaked everyone out - but I suspect part of the reason that got such attention is that the system usually works so well.
There are a few exceptions who get to vote electronically - mostly vision-impaired voters, and those stationed in the Antarctic or on overseas military postings.
posted by une_heure_pleine at 12:09 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


I suspect Czechs find it more pleasant to get money by finding scutwork in England than by cleaning up English punter vomit on their own streets.

I live and work in Prague. Generally, they don't bother washing vomit off the streets. Apparently, that's what rain is for.
posted by veedubya at 12:10 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


I voted Leave (by postal vote) about a month ago, so I spent today in a beer garden overlooking the Vltava, drinking lovely Czech beer at just under £1 a pint (or nearest metric equivalent). Sadly, I've misjudged the sun and burnt myself to a glorious crimson.
posted by veedubya at 12:19 PM on June 23, 2016


Why? Well...


Here's one case for Leave, without any of the disgusting propaganda.


I'd vote to leave because with the Greek standoff, we've seen the EU prevent Greece from answering the crisis with a repeat of the Worgl Experiment, even though it would help all parties. (TLDR: allowing Greece to issue euro-denominated scrip in order to get some money circulating in the country.)

The Worgl measure is something that American states and municipalities can do at any time, and did do all through the Great Depression. If Brussels is taking away a sovereign prerogative that DC continues to allow the states to exercise at any time, then it's time to reign them in.
posted by ocschwar at 12:34 PM on June 23, 2016


> We don't have to believe that the sun shines out of the Cabinet Office, but we do have to assume that on a basic level, government is on our side and running the country in what it believes is our interests.

I can't tell whether it's because I'm too naïvely idealistic or too naïvely cynical, but this statement does not resonate at all with me — like, it's not that I don't believe it, or don't agree with it, but more that it seems like words without substance to me, words that moreover can never have substance.

To my eye, any democracy worth the name has to be grounded in a solid foundation of deep mutual mistrust, with any process that's not as public and as visible as possible treated as not just potentially compromised, but in fact always presumed to be already actually compromised. Whenever there is significant money or power on the line, the incentives to subvert any process that's open to subversion will invariably result in someone subverting it. "Trust me" is what untrustworthy people say; trustworthy people say something more like "go ahead and take a look for yourself."

That said, of course, the #usepens people definitely seem too naïve about their cynicism; anyone who thinks they can thwart vote tampering by using pens badly needs to step up their paranoia game. Ballot security is serious business, and #usepens treats it like a silly game.
posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 12:41 PM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


I'm genuinely interested in why you opted for 'leave' as a British person living elsewhere in the EU.

Well, as you ask, I'll be honest: I wasn't going to vote because I'm also an Irish citizen, by virtue of a parent, so in or out the result really doesn't affect me much. Apart from Ireland changing the renewal process for a passport which is a bit of a bugger. What pushed me into voting was Obama's interference - that was seriously uncool.

I've voted Leave for two reasons:

Firstly, it's just a gut feeling that the UK doesn't really belong in the EU. There's just a different mindset here. For example, look at all of the exceptions that UK gets. To me that's indicative of hammering a square peg into a round hole.

Secondly, ironically enough, is the racism. By Christ, I've heard some absolutely disgusting stuff in the years that I've lived here. You want to hear something really nasty? Come over here and drop the word 'gypsy' into a conversation with locals. It's chilling. Same with Muslims, or immigrants in general. I personally don't want to be part of a club where that sort of shit is acceptable. I can still remember, with horrible clarity, the conversation that I got dragged into the day after that little boy's body was washed up on a beach. It had been a long time since I'd been that angry or disgusted.
posted by veedubya at 12:42 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


By "here" there, do you mean Prague or the UK?
posted by Grangousier at 12:44 PM on June 23, 2016


Prague. Sorry I didn't make that clear.
posted by veedubya at 12:45 PM on June 23, 2016


I don't have a shitty job. I'm paid well above average, in CZK.
posted by veedubya at 12:48 PM on June 23, 2016


Thought so. Thanks!

there is no way that such an arrangement could be made to work without breaking England up into separate states (something which would meet resistance, as all such plans do).

I don't know - Yorkshire would jump at the chance, probably the South West (assuming you could get Cornwall and Devon to agree for five minutes) too. I suspect the North East could work up enthusiasm and the Midlands could be talked into it. Give Kent any autonomy, though, and they'll declare war on Surrey.
posted by Grangousier at 12:49 PM on June 23, 2016


(Just realised that was like #humblebrag - I didn't mean it that way. Honest!)

sio42, we should meet up.
posted by veedubya at 12:50 PM on June 23, 2016


Am at work and on tablet, but the prof. Alan Johnson piece is amazing and I will finish reading it when I get home.
posted by marienbad at 12:57 PM on June 23, 2016


we do have to assume that on a basic level, government is on our side and running the country in what it believes is our interests.

Such an assumption is simply incompatible with also having class analysis of society.

It's not a moral issue. Individuals operating within any system maybe motivated by all sorts of reasons, good or bad, but they are not the issue.
posted by Coda Tronca at 12:59 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


Less than an hour now til the utter collapse of Western civilization...uh...the closing of the polls.
posted by Emma May Smith at 1:02 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


They think it's all over! It is... soon.
posted by veedubya at 1:04 PM on June 23, 2016


Remain now even further ahead in prediction markets.
posted by Coda Tronca at 1:07 PM on June 23, 2016


I suspect the North East could work up enthusiasm

I suspect that's an understatement. When the Scottish Referendum was underway I heard a lot of people here in Northumbria making noises about please may we join in, sorry about the whole Wall misunderstanding.
posted by reynir at 1:40 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


The rain is coming down so heavy in the gloaming you can't hear the cars over the sough. I hope nobody left it til the last minute here.
posted by Emma May Smith at 1:41 PM on June 23, 2016


The trouble with the pencil, paper and piece of string voting machine (which I wholeheartedly favour - I turned up, gave my address, agreed that yes, I was Devonian, and that was that) is it doesn't cope well with unexpected problems. There have been flash floods in SE England today, which have disrupted the trains and left a lot of people stranded away from their registered polling places, and an ATC strike in France which has done much the same. An emergency proxy scheme exists, but doesn't apply here. You can choose to vote by post ahead of time, and lots of people do, but if you didn't do that (I enjoy the little bit of theatre in going to vote) then you're going to lose your franchise.

Which is unfair and, I think, unnecessary - perhaps the emergency proxy system can be extended to allow some form of immediate registration and remote voting by phone, but only when circumstances dictate.

Meanwhile, the weather has been clement in Scotland and we're looking at a 70-80 percent turn-out in a solidly (as far as anyone can tell...) Remain nation.

Goddamn it, twelve minutes to close of play. No exit polls. This is going to be a looooong night. With gin. Lots of gin.
posted by Devonian at 1:48 PM on June 23, 2016


Wines! European wines!
posted by threetwentytwo at 1:52 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


There were active plans for devolution to the North East and Yorkshire not that long ago: they were rejected by local referendum so overwhelmingly that the whole idea died.
posted by Segundus at 1:53 PM on June 23, 2016


Bongggg! Polls are closed.
posted by ZipRibbons at 2:00 PM on June 23, 2016


/factory whistle blows

It's all over but the counting.
posted by fireoyster at 2:01 PM on June 23, 2016


The BBC airing the chimes of Big Ben as the polls close is great. Can CNN please do that in the US instead of their not-so-catchy jingles?
posted by zachlipton at 2:02 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Although, theoretically, people might yet be voting, because they guarantee you the vote if you're in the polling station or the queue to get in at 10:00. Not that I can imagine there being a queue, except that unpleasantness at the last general election.
posted by Grangousier at 2:02 PM on June 23, 2016


If things do go, you know, there, I wonder how many people living south of the border will start fantasising about their regions joining a Greater Scotland.
posted by Sonny Jim at 2:07 PM on June 23, 2016


Looks like Farage is already saying Remain could edge it. For once, please let him be right.
posted by billiebee at 2:12 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


I discussed the "don't have to show ID to vote" thing with someone in the office today.
They were amazed until it was pointed out that sure you can rock up and pretend to be someone else. But when they turn up they will still be able to vote and you've risked almost certain jail time to affect the outcome by about 0.0001%
posted by fullerine at 2:12 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


i haz mah t-shirt
posted by lalochezia at 2:12 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


Four point lead for Remain in on-the-day polls...
posted by Devonian at 2:13 PM on June 23, 2016


Canada on the edge of its seat waiting to learn if they'll have to put up with Mark Millar.
posted by Artw at 2:14 PM on June 23, 2016


According to Sky News, Nigel Farage, the Ukip leader, is saying “it looks like Remain will edge it”.
(Guardian live blog.)
posted by Sonny Jim at 2:15 PM on June 23, 2016


But when they turn up they will still be able to vote and you've risked almost certain jail time to affect the outcome by about 0.0001%

Not a very efficient way to steal a vote. All that seems to accomplish is annoying people.
posted by ZeusHumms at 2:15 PM on June 23, 2016


Gibraltar was 85% turnout. No wonder, their lives are basically going to be utterly fucked if the UK leave the EU.
posted by Talez at 2:15 PM on June 23, 2016


Ian Duncan Smith looking nervous, Nicky Morgan looking confident. Farage already having to state that UKIP isn't going anywhere
posted by brilliantmistake at 2:17 PM on June 23, 2016


Farage already having to state that UKIP isn't going anywhere

Admitting it is the first step, Nigel. Maybe he can give it up as a New Year resolution.
posted by Talez at 2:18 PM on June 23, 2016


Why would Farage concede already when it's going to be so close?? It's making me paranoid.
posted by like_neon at 2:19 PM on June 23, 2016


I don't want to discourage anyone from sitting up drinking all night, but even Farage has thrown in the towel:

Nigel Farage: Looks Like Remain Will Edge It
posted by Coda Tronca at 2:19 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Gibraltar was 85% turnout. No wonder, their lives are basically going to be utterly fucked if the UK leave the EU.

I suspect that Spain would look at Gibraltar with hungry(-ier) eyes in case of Brexit.
posted by dhens at 2:20 PM on June 23, 2016


I'm betting the "close vote" thing was all grand old media bollocks to ensure anyone paid any attention at all to this. Expect the same from Trump v. Clinton.
posted by chavenet at 2:24 PM on June 23, 2016


BBC - YouGov calling Remain 52%, Leave 48%.
posted by billiebee at 2:25 PM on June 23, 2016


I suspect that Spain would eye Gibraltar with hungry(-ier) eyes in case of Brexit.

It's not Spain. It's waking up one morning locked out from a market of 500 million people which has been driving the economic engine of your tiny little rock.
posted by Talez at 2:27 PM on June 23, 2016 [5 favorites]


The latest secret hedge fund exit poll data: REMAIN 45%, LEAVE 39%, DECALRE WAR 18%.
posted by sfenders at 2:29 PM on June 23, 2016 [4 favorites]


I suspect that Spain would eye Gibraltar with hungry(-ier) eyes in case of Brexit.

It's not Spain. It's waking up one morning locked out from a market of 500 million people which has been driving the economic engine of your tiny little rock.


Oh, I know that. But I think that the Spain thing would happen, too.
posted by dhens at 2:30 PM on June 23, 2016


Although, theoretically, people might yet be voting, because they guarantee you the vote if you're in the polling station or the queue to get in at 10:00. Not that I can imagine there being a queue, except that unpleasantness at the last general election.

Okay, story time!

They clarified the rule about voting after 10pm because of the 2010 election in Sheffield. That year saw the so-called Cleggmania when the Liberal Democrats, led by Nick Clegg, were polling incredibly well. The Labour Party was tired after thirteen years in government and lots of folk still didn't trust the Conservatives. Cleggmania was especially strong among young people and students. It looked as though the Lib Dems would gain a serious amount of seats and definitely hold the balance of power.

I was a student in Sheffield at the time. I was pretty much the first person in Sheffield Central to vote at 7am, in a little school off West Street. I went to bed after that, knowing that I wanted to stay up all the next night to watch the results. Everybody could see it would be interesting, and as a student I had nothing better to do. Sadly all of my housemates were bloody foreigners and none could be induced to share my interest.

I must have gotten to the student union bar before 10pm as I remember watching the polls close on the giant telly there. There was shortly a live news story about students somewhere in the Sheffield Hallam constituency who were refusing to leave a polling station without being able to vote. Basically, so many people had turned up because of Cleggmania--and Sheffield Hallam was Clegg's seat--that they hadn't all had time to vote before 10pm. I remember seeing the pictures of people on the telly arguing and refusing to leave, and some in the bar were pointing out: "That's Sam!" or "Hey, it's Josh!".

Sometime before 11pm there was a group of guys who came in to the union who had actually been turned away. But they didn't seem overly bitter to be honest, as I think they were mostly Lib Dem voters and knew that Clegg was assured to be returned. I stayed the whole night watching the election there, and despite Cleggmania the Labour cheers seemed much louder than the Lib Dem ones, and even the Conservatives made a pretty good effort.

I was happy anyway because I was a longtime Lib Dem supporter then and it was great to see so many others believing in the same thing. I had even worn yellow tights to show my support. A guy pointed them out and we got chatting. Even though it became clear the Lib Dems hadn't done quite as well as hoped (they didn't win Sheffield Central) I still pulled and we went on a date a few days later. Sadly he was as big a disappointment as Clegg, but at least it only took five days and not five years to get rid.
posted by Emma May Smith at 2:31 PM on June 23, 2016 [10 favorites]




Supposedly Sweden would also seek an exit if Brexit succeeds. Is there a list somewhere with every country that's credibly interested in leaving?
posted by Apocryphon at 2:40 PM on June 23, 2016


Farage has "un-conceded", says ITV. What a fucking joker.
posted by tapeguy at 2:52 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


Farage should be ashamed of himself over the whole conduct of the Brexit campaign, but I assume that since he heads UKIP his shame organ has already been surgically removed.
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 2:53 PM on June 23, 2016 [9 favorites]


Oh whew! So he's just being a prat like usual.
posted by like_neon at 2:57 PM on June 23, 2016


Well, given that at the last General Election Farage resigned and then unresigned, flip-flopping is kind of his signature move.
posted by reynir at 2:58 PM on June 23, 2016 [5 favorites]


This video from Bobby George has made me wonder why we bordered with the rest of the referendum campaigning at all. The only referendum video you need to see.
posted by howfar at 3:02 PM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


I mean the post-Brexit Johnson-Gove-Farage regime may be a triumph of workers rights and greater democracy but I have a strange feeling that it wouldn't be.

Are you saying it is now? Seriously and with all due respect, you are so far wrong it is untrue.
posted by marienbad at 3:05 PM on June 23, 2016


Yeah. Take a trip to a mining community in England, if you can find one, and tell them how great the EU has been at protecting their labour rights.
posted by veedubya at 3:07 PM on June 23, 2016


Looks like Farage is already saying Remain could edge it.

Phrasing.
posted by MikeKD at 3:10 PM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


Can anyone explain what "Brex mad" means? I feel like I'm missing something?
posted by threetwentytwo at 3:12 PM on June 23, 2016


Forget it, threetwentytwo, it's the Sun.
posted by chimaera at 3:13 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


You're not alone threetwentytwo. The BBC commentators were perplexed by it too.
posted by zachlipton at 3:14 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


If we stay in the EU, do people on here actually believe things will get better for the poor and the poor workers in the UK, when things have gotten progressively worse over the last 30 years, even while we have been in the EU?

It is ran by Junker who was head of tax haven Luxembourg, where all the corps set up shell companies to screw us over by avoiding tax to the tune of billions over the years. He really has the interests of the poor of Europe at heart! And he calls us traitors for wanting to leave. What a cock.
posted by marienbad at 3:16 PM on June 23, 2016


Forget it, threetwentytwo, it's the Sun.

Saturday's edition of the Sun: "Brexit Fixed! How did we know the result before printing on Friday? Ex-MI5 cleaner gives us the details of how we mysteriously got it right before the polls had even closed."
posted by Talez at 3:18 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


From the Hurry up harry link posted upthread:

"The crisis of the eurozone from 2010 even led to the removal of elected governments and their replacement with compliant technocrats—by the troika of the EU, the European Central Bank, and the IMF. The markets were kept happy, and the euro was kept intact, but the price was high: democracy was ‘discarded like unwanted clothing’ as the BBC Europe editor, Gavin Hewitt, put it in his valuable book The Lost Continent. More: the European welfare state was eroded; deflation, mass unemployment, poverty, and ugly and sometimes violent political populisms disfigured the European landscape.

The political meaning of the appointment of Jean-Claude Juncker as the president of the European Commission (which can draft laws and impose penalties on governments and firms) was this: the European political class and its bureaucracy has decided that the answer to the uprising is –as Angela Merkel says –‘More Europe!’ Jean-Claude Juncker is Mr. More Europe.

A former prime minister of Luxemburg, he is the consummate Euro-insider, a super-centralizer, a true believer in ‘ever-greater union,’ and a man without any record of pushing for more democratic accountability or for reform. He is the man who once attacked Germany as ‘very un-European.’"
posted by marienbad at 3:21 PM on June 23, 2016


If we stay in the EU, do people on here actually believe things will get better for the poor and the poor workers in the UK, when things have gotten progressively worse over the last 30 years, even while we have been in the EU?

I think it will get worse far less slowly than it would without the EU tempering the rightward pull of UK politics. I think prospects for things actually turning around and improving at some point are far better than they would be without.

You're right, business as usual is a problem, and something needs to change. Membership of the EU is not that thing - domestic politics is, most notably Tory and Tory-lite (New Labour) dominance of political discourse. Corbyn is no messiah, but he represents the best realistic chance at movement in the correct direction at least that we've had for a long long time.
posted by Dysk at 3:22 PM on June 23, 2016 [17 favorites]


I believe that we can exit at any time. It doesn't need to be now. It doesn't need to be driven by UKIP and the hard-right part of the Tories. It doesn't have to be without any post-exit planning. It doesn't have to be after having misrepresented the issues to voters.

I could go on but essentially just because we're saying "no" right now, doesn't mean we're saying "no" forever. Let's see what change we can push for. Let's see whether Corbyn can get in, let's see whether we can reverse the negative effects of austerity and regain some perspective and then, if it's still utterly immune to reform, let's make an actual plan and then we can leave.
posted by longbaugh at 3:22 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


If we stay in the EU, do people on here actually believe things will get better for the poor and the poor workers in the UK, when things have gotten progressively worse over the last 30 years, even while we have been in the EU?

I don't believe things will get particularly better for them in the short term, I believe they will have the potential to get better in the medium/long term. However what I do believe is that leaving would be a disaster that would wreck things for the poor in ways the EU won't begin to approach.
posted by SometimeNextMonth at 3:24 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


Can anyone explain what "Brex mad" means? I feel like I'm missing something?

Surely a pun on 'sex mad', playing up the high level of interest in the referendum.
posted by Pink Frost at 3:25 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


If we stay in the EU, do people on here actually believe things will get better for the poor and the poor workers in the UK, when things have gotten progressively worse over the last 30 years, even while we have been in the EU?

This isn't an argument for leaving. The things that have made it worse for poor people (lack of a housing policy, underinvestment in infrastructure, a hostility to our strategic resource industries, etc etc) are almost entirely domestic issues. There's just no argument in "The EU isn't a panacea, therefore we must leave".

I believe we have a better chance of making it better for poor people by not fucking up our economy. I know that it's poor form in some circles to say it, but poor economic performance disproportionately hurts poor people. Especially when you have 3.8 years of Tory government ahead.
posted by howfar at 3:26 PM on June 23, 2016 [10 favorites]


Guardian reporting very high turnout, and seems like most commentators are calling it for Remain.
posted by Pink Frost at 3:26 PM on June 23, 2016


Devonian: "The trouble with the pencil, paper and piece of string voting machine (which I wholeheartedly favour - I turned up, gave my address, agreed that yes, I was Devonian, and that was that) is it doesn't cope well with unexpected problems."

This isn't an inherent problem of pen and paper ballot setups which can setup to accept provisional ballots. Any polling station with power should be able to print off a ballot from any district in a provisional manner (not needed here of course because all the ballots are the same so you could just have a big stack of extras).
posted by Mitheral at 3:27 PM on June 23, 2016


Are you saying it is now?

No, of course not. In an ideal world a good majority of people in this country would not be voting for free market economics on a regular basis but they do so we have to take what we can get.

The EU is in no way a perfect institution and could go much much further but to say it has not protected workers rights is pretty disingenuous, there's the Working Time Directive at the very least.
posted by brilliantmistake at 3:28 PM on June 23, 2016


The problem is, howfar, that all these things, like the wealth and income inequality, have happened while we are in the EU - I am not saying it is the EU's fault, just that being in the EU didn't make a difference, and won't in future - things will continue to get worse even if we stay in, the rich and powerful will see to that.
posted by marienbad at 3:29 PM on June 23, 2016


I mean, the day that the UK pulls left so hard that the EU starts being a barrier to meaningfully progressive politics that would viable and realistic outside its influence, I'll be right there campaigning to leave. We are so so far from that reality, however. Bluntly put, it makes sense to me to get your shit together before you go it alone, at least.
posted by Dysk at 3:29 PM on June 23, 2016 [14 favorites]


I've got this nasty sinus infection that I picked up and won't go away. And the thing is, this sinus infection happened while I have a liver. I'm not saying it's my liver's fault I got this sinus infection, but having a liver didn't make a difference. So I think I'll have my liver removed.
posted by biogeo at 3:33 PM on June 23, 2016 [29 favorites]


The problem is, howfar, that all these things, like the wealth and income inequality, have happened while we are in the EU - I am not saying it is the EU's fault, just that being in the EU didn't make a difference, and won't in future - things will continue to get worse even if we stay in, the rich and powerful will see to that.

...but if it's not the fault of the EU, how is leaving the EU in any way going to contribute to fixing it? Your argument seems to be that it's orthogonal at best.
posted by Dysk at 3:34 PM on June 23, 2016 [6 favorites]


More from the Hurry up harry link - god this is amazing, where has this guy been all my life?

" ‘The same structures that Delors promised to use in the interests of the working class turned out by the time of the 2007–08 financial crash to have been used instead to push through a variety of neoliberal economic and social policies that have only damaged the European working class.’ Hence the near silence on the left during this campaign about the abject misery of Greece, or the trauma of 50% youth unemployment in Spain, or the remarkable pursuit of TTIP.As for leftist Ulrich Beck’s suggestion in German Europe that Southern Europe should consider German neocolonialism a good thing because, hey, this is the ‘best’ generation of Germans ever…well, we have passed over that sort of thing in silence too.

And here is something else we don’t talk about on the left: the impact on workers wages and rents. Listen to The Guardian’s – yes, that’s right, The Guardian’s – money expert, Patrick Collinson, explaining why he is voting Leave:

I know a painter/decorator who has not been able to raise his wages for 15 years. There’s always someone else, he says, willing to work for less. A driver who arrived from Turkey 18 years ago, who says the bus companies used to pay more than £12 an hour, but can now pay £10 or less because they have so many takers (and yes, the irony is noted). A care-home cleaner in a rundown seaside town who reckons her hopes of ever getting more than the minimum wage are zero. Each blames an influx of workers from the EU. Each of them are voting out. Tell them the EU protects workers’ rights and they just laugh.

When companies launch recruitment drives in eastern Europe they blame skills shortages in Britain. Really? If a big business wants to hire, say, drivers on £25 an hour, it will find it can do so easily; what they really mean is that they can’t find people willing to work for £10 an hour or less, with antisocial hours to boot. Meanwhile, workers here rejecting low wages are told they are lazy, chavvy and feckless when they refuse to be part of the so-called ‘jobs factory of Europe’.

Meanwhile, as wages for people in low-income groups are pegged back, rents rise. Many times I interviewed Britain’s biggest buy-to-let landlord, Fergus Wilson, and many times he told me how well he was doing from eastern European migrants, who filled nearly all his properties and kept his rental income booming. Rents in parts of the country are at catastrophic levels, snatching as much as 60% of pay. Migration is only part of the reason why that is happening. But when George Osborne declares house prices will fall by 18% if Britain quits, he’s giving the game away. He is saying membership of the EU keeps prices and rents much higher than they would otherwise be. Young people struggling with ludicrous rents, take note.""
posted by marienbad at 3:35 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


Dysk: see my next comment
posted by marienbad at 3:36 PM on June 23, 2016


Gibraltar declares! 19322 Remain; 823 Leave.

Hopefully that's an indication of things to come!
posted by Quagkapi at 3:37 PM on June 23, 2016


Supposedly Sweden would also seek an exit if Brexit succeeds. Is there a list somewhere with every country that's credibly interested in leaving?

Based on what? Latest poll had 49% for EU, 23% for leave, rest undecided. The only party that wants to leave the EU is the Left Party (formerly communists) with around 7% of the voters in the latest poll, even if I suspect the right fringe might go there if they can make it about immigrants.
posted by effbot at 3:41 PM on June 23, 2016


Nigel Farage is a spiteful little shit.
posted by Talez at 3:45 PM on June 23, 2016 [5 favorites]


When "left wing" rhetoric comes down to "the immigrants are taking our jobs", I tend to check out. It's not good economics and it's not good solidarity.
posted by howfar at 3:46 PM on June 23, 2016 [10 favorites]


What the link you keep quoting at length (the rest of us can follow links too, you don't need to duplicate the whole thing here) is describing is a failure of housing policy (a sane system of taxation and a removal of subsidies for non-resident property owners) and a failure to set a sensible minimum wage. These are very much internal UK issues, and the biggest drivers of the problems. Once that is addressed, then we can start looking at whether the EU is having a negative effect - at the moment, it's so insignificant relative to internal UK politics as to be irrelevant.
posted by Dysk at 3:50 PM on June 23, 2016 [8 favorites]


marienbad, I haven't read the Harry's Place piece, but I intend to. However, what on Earth makes you think the far-right wing of the Conservative Party - the Leavers - are the people to, for instance, raise the minimum wage, protect workers' rights, or maintain consumer and environmental protections?
posted by Quagkapi at 3:51 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


things will continue to get worse even if we stay in, the rich and powerful will see to that

That is their want, however it would not be the same toboggan ride into inanity that we would have with Boris Johnson at the helm pandering to the 'millionaire fascist' lead UKIP minority.

It is a lot harder to build things than it is to destroy them, but that is what is needed in the UK.

Once again marienbad, the stub end of workers' rights in a UK outside of the EU would be crushed under the heel of a UKIP/Tory alliance. The work needed to undo the destruction currently suffered by the welfare state and NHS is quite enough work for the Labour party, should they be able to get it through the upper house (assuming lower house majority).

Yes, neoliberalism is a crock, whether promoted at European or British government level. There is a huge amount wrong with the European Commission, but it's better than the alternative we are presented with at the moment. If any of these cretins had at least some record of giving a fig for democracy I might feel differently, but the current Leave team are far from being an asset to the collective.

Someone recently pointed out that any negotiation undertaken by a UK outside the EU would be woefully inadequate as the politicians likely to be doing the negotiating would be unable to talk to the governments in their own languages.

I shall just remind people that there are plenty of people whose lives would be seriously detrimentally impacted if we left the EU. This is not a semantic argument.
posted by asok at 3:57 PM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


Marienbad,amongst other bullshit, he is quoting Fergus fucking Wilson, one half of a couple who have been ludicrously allowed to fucking destroy the housing market of a particular area. No EU involvement required.
posted by threetwentytwo at 3:57 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Gibraltar declares! 19322 Remain; 823 Leave.

Hopefully that's an indication of things to come!


Gibraltar isn't exactly representative.
posted by Emma May Smith at 4:00 PM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


Newcastle marginally in favour of remain.
posted by edd at 4:01 PM on June 23, 2016


Newcastle marginally in favour of remain.

When polls predicted a large lead in favor of remain (I've seen +11.8 points). It's a scary result.
posted by zachlipton at 4:03 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Scarily close even there. Turnouts higher where there are old electorates. Shit.
posted by jaduncan at 4:04 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


UKIP and Leave: Make Britain White Again!
posted by Talez at 4:07 PM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


That result certainly made my face considerably whiter than it was beforehand.
posted by jaduncan at 4:09 PM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


Can anyone explain what "Brex mad" means? I feel like I'm missing something?

British people use 'mad' almost exclusively to mean crazy unlike Americans and Canadians who are more likely to use it to mean angry (but also sometimes to mean crazy).
posted by srboisvert at 4:11 PM on June 23, 2016


Dear Dad,

We heard you're having a fight with Mom and her friends. Just so you know, we think it's best if you stay together, but if you really can't stand it, you're welcome to move in with us for a while.

Sincerely,
Canada
posted by mrjohnmuller at 4:15 PM on June 23, 2016


Market reaction to that Newcastle result was intense on the GBP/USD exchange rate: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Clq9CrWWEAEjIc9.png
posted by jaduncan at 4:16 PM on June 23, 2016


Sunderland races to be first (video 1; video 2). I'm always cheered by watching these.

Sunderland has just declared: 134,400 votes. Remain 51,930; Leave 82,394.

63.0%

It's *JUST* within the abovementioned margin of uncertainty for a dead heat (Leave -1 - +13%), but well above the expected 6% lead for Leave.
posted by Quagkapi at 4:17 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


It's done. Britain will leave the EU.
posted by Talez at 4:18 PM on June 23, 2016 [6 favorites]


I've long found it curious how "Little Englander" has become a term of abuse in the modern sense. The original Little Englanders were abusively named so because of their anti-Empire and anti-colonialism and pro-Home Rule opinions.

I guess you've missed the bit where those anti-Empire and anti-colonialism and pro-Home Rule opinions were driven by the idea of Anglo-Saxon British supremacy; leading Little Englanders like Goldwin Smith were very clear in that any freedom would be limited to colonies with a white English majority who could be trusted to do things correctly, while colonies like India and Ireland, full of inferior people, had to be kept under tight control or god knows what would happen. He also was a raving anti-semite, a full-on racist, didn't think women should vote, etc.
posted by effbot at 4:19 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


Sunderland has just declared: 134,400 votes. Remain 51,930; Leave 82,394.

Put that together with Newcastle and I'm starting to worry Leave will take it.
posted by Pink Frost at 4:20 PM on June 23, 2016


Xenophobia and isolationism have managed to triumph. Congratulations, Nigel you shithead.
posted by Talez at 4:20 PM on June 23, 2016


Holy. Fuck.
posted by jaduncan at 4:20 PM on June 23, 2016


holy fucking shit sunderland not good not good at all
posted by lalochezia at 4:21 PM on June 23, 2016


The people of Sunderland just made a lot of bankers a lot of money judging by how far the value of the pound just fell.
posted by tapeguy at 4:22 PM on June 23, 2016


Solid Labour area, UKIP coming in second last election.
posted by Artw at 4:25 PM on June 23, 2016


BBC Radio 4 interviewing people at Glastonbury, asking them to please not swear because they're live
posted by BungaDunga at 4:29 PM on June 23, 2016 [4 favorites]


Pound down 6%.
posted by jaduncan at 4:31 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


I'm listening to R4 too; that was hilarious. I probably would have run away as well. It's not your real name, Carol!

* Also, urgh, maths. More like 61% Leave in Sunderland, just to correct myself, sorry. Still an extreme result.
posted by Quagkapi at 4:32 PM on June 23, 2016


What a mess. We're pulling for you, Bremainers.
posted by Existential Dread at 4:32 PM on June 23, 2016 [7 favorites]


Well at least loss of free movement won't matter. We won't be able to afford to leave the country.
posted by howfar at 4:33 PM on June 23, 2016 [4 favorites]


Gosh, Broadcasting House is a really lovely building.
posted by kalimac at 4:33 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Asshole Sunderland, why are you doing this to us
posted by tel3path at 4:34 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


What a mess. We're pulling for you, Bremainers.

Yeah, especially Dysk and any others who will be directly impacted by this. (Hoping if Brexit goes ahead it doesn't change the status of anyone already in the country. But who knows?).
posted by Pink Frost at 4:35 PM on June 23, 2016




(Hoping if Brexit goes ahead it doesn't change the status of anyone already in the country. But who knows?).

Leave.eu, although not the official campaign, did say that they would honour the status all EU citizens already here and considered them settled. All Leavers I've spoken to agree that that's the right thing to do, though I don't kid myself that it is the opinion of everybody. I personally think we don't have an option but to let them stay.
posted by Emma May Smith at 4:40 PM on June 23, 2016


This feels eerily like watching the last election results coming in; the polls were distinctly wrong then too, and resulted in 5 more years of Tory rule. I'm honestly afraid that leave will take the day; something I never quite believed before tonight.
posted by kalimac at 4:44 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Yay Foyle!!! I have never heard of you until today, but you saved us from Sunderland
posted by tel3path at 4:46 PM on June 23, 2016


It's an NI nationalist area. One would hope so, given that it has a heavy presence of people who want to trade with and travel to and from Ireland.
posted by jaduncan at 4:48 PM on June 23, 2016


I'm depressed as fuck about all this.
posted by dng at 4:49 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


Not sleeping
I have coffee
It's not helping
posted by longbaugh at 4:50 PM on June 23, 2016


Markets in free-fall. That weekly sub to the EU is going to look like such a bargain later today...
posted by Devonian at 4:51 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


I'm increasingly in favour of a Baarle-Nassau solution.
posted by edd at 4:52 PM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


Betfair has swung from 1:8 Remain to nearly 1:2 in the last hour.
posted by Quagkapi at 4:53 PM on June 23, 2016


Yes. Let's all just remember that "nobody could predict what the actual effect would be" when literally almost every single market participant said it was going to be absolute havoc.
posted by jaduncan at 4:53 PM on June 23, 2016 [6 favorites]


This feels like a lot of people are voting to have their leg amputated because they have a broken arm.
posted by Bloxworth Snout at 4:54 PM on June 23, 2016 [16 favorites]


Rumours of Lewisham showing 83% for remain. That seems high, but I don't know what we have to compare it to, if it's even accurate.
posted by howfar at 4:55 PM on June 23, 2016


I wouldn't panic just yet. Referendums are always won or lost in the Home Counties.
posted by Flashman at 4:56 PM on June 23, 2016


Swindon votes Leave by a 10K margin
posted by longbaugh at 4:57 PM on June 23, 2016


Labour said this, allegedly: "There has been a strong turnout, higher than the general election in many areas. Early indications showing more divergence than we expected - bigger leads than expected for Remain in likely Remain areas but also bigger leads for Leave in likely Leave areas."

It has to be said that none of the Labour party people look at all happy.
posted by jaduncan at 4:58 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Fuuuuuck.
posted by Artw at 4:58 PM on June 23, 2016


I would like to feel optimistic. But I don't. I think we're fucked.
posted by howfar at 4:58 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


An interesting post on the Guardian liveblog pointing out that students have gone back home for holidays but many of the polling models assume they'd be voting at their universities.
posted by zachlipton at 4:58 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Swindon and Broxborne both leave, with large turnouts. But a big turnout in Wandsworth in South London, expected to be strongly for remain.
posted by Pink Frost at 4:58 PM on June 23, 2016


I wouldn't panic just yet. Referendums are always won or lost in the Home Counties.

Well, somewhere called Broxborne--which the BBC says is in the Home Counties--voted for Leave about 2:1.
posted by Emma May Smith at 4:59 PM on June 23, 2016


Uggggggggh, is this what it feels like to watch a close US election from abroad and be unable to affect the outcome when a small group of people clearly want to burn the world down for everyone?
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 4:59 PM on June 23, 2016 [66 favorites]


Fuck you, Swindon and Broxbourne.
posted by tel3path at 5:01 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


psephologist is a word I've literally never heard before, or is it a Grauniadism?
posted by BungaDunga at 5:01 PM on June 23, 2016


I've never voted for the winning candidate (or even the winning party) in any election at any level so far in my life.

So I'm sorry everyone. About everything.
posted by dng at 5:02 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


Very surprised that Scilly voted for remain.
posted by howfar at 5:02 PM on June 23, 2016


Well, perhaps not everyone in Swindon and Broxbourne.
posted by longbaugh at 5:02 PM on June 23, 2016


Huh:
Psephology /sᵻˈfɒlədʒi/ (from Greek psephos ψῆφος, 'pebble', which the Greeks used as ballots) is a branch of political science which deals with the study and scientific analysis of elections.
posted by BungaDunga at 5:02 PM on June 23, 2016 [5 favorites]


psephologist is a word I've literally never heard before, or is it a Grauniadism?

Psephology has been around since the 1950s. Coined by a friend of Tolkien's as I recall.
posted by Emma May Smith at 5:04 PM on June 23, 2016


Watching the results
posted by chimaera at 5:05 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


Take a breath, folks. It'll be at least three hours before we've got any real idea of the ultimate result.
posted by Paul Slade at 5:05 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


Whoa. Are there any NON US-based 24 hour news channels on TV (e.g. Sky News, Al-Jazeera, etc) where I can watch the results come in? Would rather watch on my actual TV than my laptop.
posted by triggerfinger at 5:06 PM on June 23, 2016


Well, if leave happens, we'll just have to pick ourselves up and fight harder. But I'm so tired of fighting, every single fucking day, to stop these evil pricks from destroying the lives of the poor and the vulnerable. I am sick of the shit I have to wade through and the misery I see. I am fucking sick of having to fight against systems designed to punish people for being unlucky. I am bored of it. But there you go.
posted by howfar at 5:07 PM on June 23, 2016 [8 favorites]


triggerfinger, if you have a Roku, the SkyNews app on there works in the U.S. for their live broadcast. (I don't know about other media streamers.)
posted by fireoyster at 5:08 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Brexit too close to call! All hangs on Florida.

(stolen from a random tweet I saw pass by - made me laugh)
posted by inflatablekiwi at 5:09 PM on June 23, 2016


psephologist is a word I've literally never heard before, or is it a Grauniadism?

It's a real word but not one that people in the field, at least in the US, would use unless they were being intentionally silly and fake-pompous.
posted by ROU_Xenophobe at 5:09 PM on June 23, 2016


Well, perhaps not everyone in Swindon and Broxbourne.

If you can find 10 righteous men in Swindon and Broxbourne, I will not destroy them.
posted by tel3path at 5:09 PM on June 23, 2016 [7 favorites]


triggerfinger, try this?

This Medium post, via The Independent, appears to give some expected results, with confidence intervals, and they match the above Guardian "expectation" margins for Sunderland (column G).

There are several provisos in the post itself about the predictions: they could be wrong.

Here's the full table.
posted by Quagkapi at 5:10 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


And Kettering.

Fuck.
posted by tel3path at 5:10 PM on June 23, 2016


Basildon too.
posted by longbaugh at 5:11 PM on June 23, 2016


psephologist is a word I've literally never heard before, or is it a Grauniadism?

It's a real word but not one that people in the field, at least in the US, would use unless they were being intentionally silly and fake-pompous.


From memory it seems to be quite commonly-used in Indian English: the first time I encountered it was in Indian media coverage of an election there. Interesting to see it spread into more common use in English English.
posted by Pink Frost at 5:12 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Psephology /sᵻˈfɒlədʒi/ (from Greek psephos ψῆφος, 'pebble', which the Greeks used as ballots) is a branch of political science which deals with the study and scientific analysis of elections.

"The avalanche has already started. It is too late for the pebbles to vote." — Kosh, Babylon 5
posted by DevilsAdvocate at 5:13 PM on June 23, 2016 [10 favorites]


Brexit too close to call! All hangs on Florida.

that's actually pretty believable given the volume of British tourists
posted by indubitable at 5:14 PM on June 23, 2016 [4 favorites]


Sincerely,
Canada


Oh no, I've seen this universe before.
posted by Apocryphon at 5:14 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Please don't get angry at regions. In most of those regions there's still a lot of people whose votes are counting equally, who are voting the way you want. I somewhat expect my region to vote leave, but I'm still proud of it and there've been dedicated volunteers working to get every vote they can for their side.
posted by edd at 5:15 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Angela Eagle is the only one with a lick of fucking sense on the BBC panel right now.
posted by Talez at 5:15 PM on June 23, 2016


Yay Shetland, but it's not enough to save us.
posted by tel3path at 5:16 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


"How can we best shift the blame for exit onto Jeremy Corbyn?"
posted by longbaugh at 5:16 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


I lie awake at night thinking of angry letters to write to regions, and in the morning I write them and then I shred them and I just go no contact with that region.
posted by tel3path at 5:17 PM on June 23, 2016 [5 favorites]


Based on what? Latest poll had 49% for EU, 23% for leave, rest undecided. The only party that wants to leave the EU is the Left Party (formerly communists) with around 7% of the voters in the latest poll, even if I suspect the right fringe might go there if they can make it about immigrants.

Radio Sweden: Britain's EU debate closely watched by Sweden

My friend tells me it's less about immigration, and more about not wanting to pay to bail out Greece/Italy.
posted by Apocryphon at 5:17 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


Thanks to West Dunbartonshire, we are gaining
posted by tel3path at 5:17 PM on June 23, 2016


Sincerely,
Canada

Oh no, I've seen this universe before.
posted by Apocryphon at 5:14 PM on June 23 [+] [!]


I've been thinking of 1995 except .5% margin and some leaders for the separation blaming immigrants before the polls close. Especially if the final count happens on St. Jean Baptiste...
posted by chapps at 5:18 PM on June 23, 2016


Either Lindsay Lohan's twitter has been hacked or she's as obsessed with the Brexit vote as the rest of us.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 5:18 PM on June 23, 2016 [5 favorites]


Well, shit. South Tyneside, I'm not angry, just disappointed.
posted by tel3path at 5:20 PM on June 23, 2016


Why are these folks turning out for the EU ref but not against the Tories in the General Election?
posted by longbaugh at 5:23 PM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


My friend tells me it's less about immigration, and more about not wanting to pay to bail out Greece/Italy.

If the United States had this attitude we'd have a civil war per decade.
posted by Talez at 5:23 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


There was a horrendously depressing comment on the radio earlier that some people apparently didn't even know that Labour were pro-remain.
posted by Quagkapi at 5:26 PM on June 23, 2016


I've been thinking of 1995 except .5% margin and some leaders for the separation blaming immigrants before the polls close. Especially if the final count happens on St. Jean Baptiste...


Yeah, even if Remain wins the day, the Canadian experience tells us you're going to have to wait 20, 30 years before putting a stake in the heart of Brexit.

What happened with Quebec was changing demographics. And many of the issues Quebeckers were upset about, notably language and cultural rights, and jobs, were solved over 20-30 years.
posted by My Dad at 5:26 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


There was a horrendously depressing comment on the radio earlier that some people apparently didn't even know that Labour were pro-remain.

That's largely because the media only ever wanted to talk about Boris Johnson versus David Cameron.
posted by dng at 5:27 PM on June 23, 2016


Drunken 16 year olds doing a vox pop on BBC. Wonderful.
posted by Emma May Smith at 5:29 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


From the Guardian live blog:

You can always tell who is losing on an election night — it’s the side where they start blaming each other.
posted by infinitewindow at 5:31 PM on June 23, 2016 [4 favorites]


Tories talking about leaving after some time. Fuck that. Stick to your convictions. If they vote leave don't dally. Go to Brussels and invoke article 50 the very next day.
posted by Talez at 5:31 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


It's about immigration. Anyone who tells you differently is not correct. Just talk to ordinary people, and listen to what they say. They aren't talking about Greece, they're talking about migrants.

I know living in a democracy means accepting that sometimes your nation does things for reasons you don't agree with and with consequences you don't want. No matter what, we'll find a way to make it work in the end. But I'm very, very sad that it looks like there's another obstacle in the way.

Chin up. We've been through worse. We'll get through this.
posted by howfar at 5:32 PM on June 23, 2016 [9 favorites]


Labour's media visibility on the issue has been a terrible let down. I diplomatically want to blame the media, who I also blame for the 'faceless EU bureaucrats' who are only faceless because people haven't had their faces shoved in front of them.
posted by edd at 5:32 PM on June 23, 2016


Mary Beard: The Long Wait
posted by the man of twists and turns at 5:33 PM on June 23, 2016


TBH, it will be hard not to resent areas where polling data said immigration was the primary factor, especially when those areas have low actual immigration rates. Racism is impossible to respect.
posted by jaduncan at 5:33 PM on June 23, 2016 [13 favorites]


I'll have to hope if we do leave, we leave fast, suffer terribly, and the EU accepts us back as a lesson to the rest of us.
posted by edd at 5:35 PM on June 23, 2016


Corbyn does nuance. John Punter doesn't appear to do so. I totally understand why they didn't put him front and centre.
posted by longbaugh at 5:35 PM on June 23, 2016


Fear, greed and hate have won today.
posted by Talez at 5:36 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


When the UK ends up negotiating back into the EEA and has to accept freedom of movement aren't the racists going to be awfully disappointed?
posted by BungaDunga at 5:36 PM on June 23, 2016


They're racist. Horrible disappointment at the failure of their worldview is their unavoidable destiny.
posted by edd at 5:37 PM on June 23, 2016 [4 favorites]


As I kept saying to folks, if we leave we'll dump as much anti-ACC stuff as they can get away with. Never mind 300,000 immigrants, make that 300 million. Even if you're a racist shithead, it still makes sense to stay.
posted by longbaugh at 5:39 PM on June 23, 2016


We Are All Trump Now.
posted by Justinian at 5:39 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


University of East Anglia is doing rolling predictions on Medium

Predicted probability of Britain Remaining: 0.55
(10 of 382 areas reporting.)
Predicted vote share for Remain: 50.2 percent.
(90% prediction interval: 45.1 to 54.9 percent)
posted by BungaDunga at 5:40 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


Dundee, 60% Remain, 40% Leave - Guardian (Libby Brooks) earlier said "I’m also told to look out for surprisingly high leave votes in solid SNP areas like Dundee and Inverclyde; perhaps prompting some soul-searching for the party’s high command". Not sure if 40% counts as high?
posted by paduasoy at 5:40 PM on June 23, 2016


Other European countries need to seriously think about how they raise awareness of what exactly is funded, what exactly is protected, and what exactly is prevented by the EU. It's a good thing, but the media isn't covering the good things they do well enough.
posted by edd at 5:42 PM on June 23, 2016


that's actually pretty believable given the volume of British tourists

What happened to Watney's Red Barrel and TORRRREY MEEELINOS
posted by snuffleupagus at 5:45 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


When UK citizens have to apply for a visa weeks in advance and wait in the "other citizens" line to get to a bachelor party in Amsterdam, the racists are going to be awfully disappointed.
posted by zachlipton at 5:45 PM on June 23, 2016 [19 favorites]


Basildon - 38714 Remain, 67251 Leave
posted by longbaugh at 5:46 PM on June 23, 2016


I feel like their primary disappointment is going to be when they finally work out that our obligations under the 1951 Refugee Convention have fuck all to do with the EU.
posted by jaduncan at 5:47 PM on June 23, 2016 [23 favorites]


Basildon was always going to be a high leave area.
posted by edd at 5:48 PM on June 23, 2016


I don't know. US citizens can go to the Netherlands for up to 90 days without a visa. UK citizens will have to wait in the annoying line, but I'd be surprised if they needed visas for a short visit.

I think this will be a disaster in all sorts of big and small ways, but that's probably not one of them.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 5:48 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Many of fhe Leave banners I've seen have been accompanied by England flags. Which, as opposed to Scotland or Wales flags, is to be expected in England. But I notice a pattern in the majority Remain areas.
posted by tel3path at 5:50 PM on June 23, 2016


Is the line that bad usually? Last couple times I went to Schipol there was basically no line (as an American doing 90 day visa on arrival). They barely even looked at my passport.
posted by thefoxgod at 5:50 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Isn't there still five hours until the final results are in? Why are people panicking and conceding already. Has no one learned anything from the U.S. primary threads. Why decide before the votes are counted. Why.
posted by Apocryphon at 5:51 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


No-one is deciding anything, and conceding is irrelevant. We're just worried. (Maybe even very worried)

But worry is a pretty normal reaction. It'd be weird not to worry, surely, about something so important.
posted by dng at 5:53 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


Many of fhe Leave banners I've seen have been accompanied by England flags. Which, as opposed to Scotland or Wales flags, is to be expected in England. But I notice a pattern in the majority Remain areas.

There was some analysis, from where I do not know, which showed that English identity was tightly linked to Leave while British identity was likewise linked to Remain.
posted by Emma May Smith at 5:53 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


Has no one learned anything from the U.S. primary threads.

Have you seen the repetitive mod notes on those threads? NO ONE HAS LEARNED ANYTHING FROM THEM.
posted by infinitewindow at 5:54 PM on June 23, 2016 [37 favorites]


I think given the choice, England would like to leave the UK, but only if it could retain control over Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.
posted by tel3path at 5:55 PM on June 23, 2016 [18 favorites]


From UEA:
01:46 Third forecast update
Predicted probability of Britain Remaining: 0.32 (15 of 382 areas reporting.)
People are panicking because the odds have swing from 70/30(ish) to 30/70 and have kept moving in that direction. The 15 areas are expected to correlate (in admittedly complicated ways) with all the others, so they provide a lot of information, even though they're a tiny proportion.
posted by BungaDunga at 5:57 PM on June 23, 2016


I think given the choice, England would like to leave the UK, but only if it could retain control over Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.

The UK was a way of appeasing Scotland. It has always, always been English policy to dominate Scotland, Ireland, and Wales as far as possible and by any means. And by 'always' I mean since Alfred or before.
posted by Emma May Smith at 5:58 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


I don't know. US citizens can go to the Netherlands for up to 90 days without a visa. UK citizens will have to wait in the annoying line, but I'd be surprised if they needed visas for a short visit.

Sure, but admission without a visa for short visits would require a reciprocal agreement between the UK and the EU. The EU is presumably going to insist that agreement cover the entire EU, not just the countries the UK likes more (this has been a big sticking point with the US lately) and it could quickly become ugly.
posted by zachlipton at 6:01 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


Oh Swansea. Not you too :(
posted by longbaugh at 6:04 PM on June 23, 2016


Way to live up to your reputation, Merthyr.
posted by kalimac at 6:07 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Pound plummeting again.
posted by Emma May Smith at 6:08 PM on June 23, 2016


All the major stock markets and futures markets have plummeted in the last few minutes.
posted by dirigibleman at 6:09 PM on June 23, 2016


Hurray, City of London!
posted by Flashman at 6:12 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Economic decline breeds Nazis, Nazis breed economic decline. We're in for some fun times.
posted by Artw at 6:13 PM on June 23, 2016 [9 favorites]


I actually wonder if the EU would deliberately make things hard for British people with respect to things like travel, just as a warning to citizens of other countries who might get similar ideas.

I can't even imagine what anyone is going to do about Ireland and Northern Ireland. I imagine that the EU smoothed over a lot of cross-border issues that are now going to have to be confronted explicitly.
Hurray, City of London!
How many people live in the City of London?
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 6:14 PM on June 23, 2016


Hurray, City of London!

In any other context, seeing that sentiment on MeFi would make me question my sanity
posted by BungaDunga at 6:14 PM on June 23, 2016 [20 favorites]


Wikipedia to the rescue! About 7000 people live in the City of London. Who knew?
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 6:15 PM on June 23, 2016


In any other context, seeing that sentiment on MeFi would make me question my sanity

Hah, exactly.

There are about 7000 voters in the Square Mile, if I remember correctly.
posted by kalimac at 6:16 PM on June 23, 2016


I can't even imagine what anyone is going to do about Ireland and Northern Ireland. I imagine that the EU smoothed over a lot of cross-border issues that are now going to have to be confronted explicitly.

Several are now guarantees; if Leave win we've possibly just set up the death of the the Good Friday agreement.
posted by jaduncan at 6:16 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


"Win or lose we made our point"

Buddy, if the leave vote goes through you haven't made a point. You've essentially thrown the fucking world into chaos for a couple of years.
posted by Talez at 6:16 PM on June 23, 2016 [22 favorites]


"Not as complicated as the politicians are saying"

Immortal last fucking words.
posted by Talez at 6:17 PM on June 23, 2016 [7 favorites]


The University of East Anglia's most recent rolling forecast:

02:08 Fourth forecast update

This is a big update, and I'm conscious that I may have made a terrible mistake somewhere in estimating differential turnout, but here goes:

Predicted probability of Britain Remaining: 0.03
(33 of 382 areas reporting.)
Predicted vote share for Remain: 47.5 percent.
(90% prediction interval: 45.5 to 49.6 percent)

posted by crazy with stars at 6:18 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Yes, Arron Banks who is "not a nice man" by any definition.
posted by longbaugh at 6:18 PM on June 23, 2016


I actually wonder if the EU would deliberately make things hard for British people with respect to things like travel, just as a warning to citizens of other countries who might get similar ideas.

Germany's Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble has explicitly said that's what's going to happen. He was talking about single market access and not travel, but it's clear at least Germany wants the UK to feel the pain if they leave the EU.
posted by Sangermaine at 6:19 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Oh goddamn it Britain.
posted by biogeo at 6:19 PM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


Stupid question time: This is ultimately going to come down to a total for/against tally all across the nation, right? It's not some silly thing like the US electoral college where we're counting the number of areas as wins or losses rather than the raw vote totals...correct?
posted by scaryblackdeath at 6:20 PM on June 23, 2016


Holy shit
posted by triggerfinger at 6:20 PM on June 23, 2016


Correct.
posted by jaduncan at 6:20 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


About 7000 people live in the City of London. Who knew?

That's one regiment of Beefeaters.
posted by Flashman at 6:21 PM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


Yes, it's different outside the USofA, where we've been semi-protected against REAL democracy for 230 years
posted by oneswellfoop at 6:21 PM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


More pressure for Labour to accept responsibility for the Leave result on the Beeb.
posted by longbaugh at 6:21 PM on June 23, 2016


Stupid question time: This is ultimately going to come down to a total for/against tally all across the nation, right?

Yes, exactly.
posted by BungaDunga at 6:22 PM on June 23, 2016


Stupid question time: This is ultimately going to come down to a total for/against tally all across the nation, right? It's not some silly thing like the US electoral college where we're counting the number of areas as wins or losses rather than the raw vote totals...correct?

It is a national vote. All votes in one pot for one result.
posted by Emma May Smith at 6:22 PM on June 23, 2016


And it's not actually a binding national vote. Technically the government could ignore it (I'm sure Cameron would like to). But it would be political suicide to do so.
posted by Pink Frost at 6:23 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


I've never been to the UK but always wanted to go, having been raised in the US on BBC programs and stuff. Even though I don't know your country half as well as I'd like to, this makes me just so very sad.
posted by lazaruslong at 6:23 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


For Cameron even holding the referendum was political suicide.
posted by dng at 6:24 PM on June 23, 2016 [8 favorites]


it would be political suicide to do so.

Cameron is toast no matter which way the vote goes.
posted by My Dad at 6:24 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


"I've never been to the UK but always wanted to go"

Well, good news, your UK vacation is about to get quite a bit cheaper.
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 6:25 PM on June 23, 2016 [49 favorites]


Predicted probability of Britain Remaining: 0.03

holy fuck, what happened?
posted by snuffleupagus at 6:25 PM on June 23, 2016


Is it possible this could cause the government to fall, leading to new Parliamentary elections?
posted by Chocolate Pickle at 6:26 PM on June 23, 2016


Terrifying to think who is going to negotiate our exit treaty...
posted by patricio at 6:26 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


yay glasgae!!! show those stupid sassenachs their errors!
posted by lalochezia at 6:26 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Oh oh oh Britain is going to negotiate the best deal they can!

"Hey buddy, fuck you! By the way, buy my shit still?"

Good luck with that.
posted by Talez at 6:26 PM on June 23, 2016 [13 favorites]


Well, good news, your UK vacation is about to get quite a bit cheaper.

Unfortunately, you'll probably lose your job in the recession.
posted by dirigibleman at 6:26 PM on June 23, 2016 [5 favorites]


Cameron is toast no matter which way the vote goes.

And yet I can't quite trust him to fall on his sword for the good of the country.
posted by kalimac at 6:27 PM on June 23, 2016


Lambeth is 111,584 remain, 30,340 leave. God, I love inner London.
posted by jaduncan at 6:27 PM on June 23, 2016 [8 favorites]


And Exeter! 55% remain.
posted by paduasoy at 6:28 PM on June 23, 2016


Is it possible this could cause the government to fall, leading to new Parliamentary elections?

Possible, but it will take a course of events over weeks and months, not days.
posted by Emma May Smith at 6:28 PM on June 23, 2016


Professor Michael Thrasher, the Sky News number cruncher, says that as things stand it looks as if leave is heading for an 12-point lead.
I'm oddly comforted by this. It coming down to a hanging chad (or whatever) would be so infuriating. At least Britain is decidedly stepping off the plank, rather than just barely wobbling off.

Still, uggggh
posted by BungaDunga at 6:28 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Cameron is toast no matter which way the vote goes.

I would have said he's toast if it's Leave, although a number of Tories including Boris, wrote to him asking him to stay on no matter what. If it's Remain, I think he's fine.

Is it possible this could cause the government to fall, leading to new Parliamentary elections?

Possibly? I don't think anyone can say. But I'd say more likely the PM resigns, which wouldn't lead to new elections. The Tories just elect a new leader and she or he becomes PM. [Plus the UK has fixed-term Parliaments now, so not exactly sure how they could have new elections. And at work so don't have time to look it up]
posted by Pink Frost at 6:29 PM on June 23, 2016


The table is shifting now that London & the southeast results are starting to come in.
posted by Flashman at 6:30 PM on June 23, 2016


Is it possible this could cause the government to fall, leading to new Parliamentary elections?

Depends on what happens with the Tory electoral fraud investigations. They could lose their 12 seat majority in that case and then it's a free for all.
posted by longbaugh at 6:31 PM on June 23, 2016


What the fuck happens to London after this?

Britain's economy seems to be heavily predicated on London being a major financial center. Dropping out of the EU basically gives those industries little reason to remain.
posted by schmod at 6:31 PM on June 23, 2016 [5 favorites]


Huh. Maybe rather than Scottish independence, what this suggests is that it's time to think about partitioning England.

(I'm joking. But let's face it: it's probably what Britain would have done if Britain were a British colony.)
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 6:32 PM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


Is it possible this could cause the government to fall, leading to new Parliamentary elections?

Hard to see that - given the new fixed terms for parliament it's difficult to get a snap election. Need a vote of no confidence or 2/3 vote of parliament. Given result UKIP gains seem likely which none of the other parties want.
posted by patricio at 6:32 PM on June 23, 2016


What the fuck happens to London after this?

We move more towards being quasi-offshore, I would guess.
posted by jaduncan at 6:32 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


London is fabulous. I'm not a resident, but I travelled through it this morning and it was visibly in. Admittedly In were handing out stickers everywhere, but they were uncountable in a long (delayed by weather) journey, and Out was a very countable 3.
posted by edd at 6:32 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


I don't like the fact that the vote counter Guardian live blog is using Cameron and Johnson as the literal faces of Remain and Leave, respectively. This is not a parliamentary contest, nor (in theory) a personality contest.
posted by dhens at 6:33 PM on June 23, 2016 [7 favorites]



Cameron is toast no matter which way the vote goes.

Cameron Toast Crunch
posted by asockpuppet at 6:33 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


I bet it'll be good for Dublin, though.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 6:33 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Remain's in the lead again (for now)
posted by triggerfinger at 6:33 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


There's some guy hollering "yuuuhhh" after the announcement of each district Leave victory and I swear it's the exact same dude every time
posted by theodolite at 6:34 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Seeing the current results (2.4M leave, 2.5M remain) is fucking terrifying because it means the question of "Would a country destroy its own economy for the sake of xenophobia?" is not remotely as clear-cut as I thought it would be.
posted by 0xFCAF at 6:35 PM on June 23, 2016 [35 favorites]


Betting markets are back to 60% remain, fwiw...
posted by condour75 at 6:36 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Good god! my blood pressure cannot handle this!
posted by ramix at 6:37 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


The betting markets are basically just looking at the vote tracker on the BBC and following that.
posted by dng at 6:38 PM on June 23, 2016 [4 favorites]


Huh, really?

None of us are going to get any sleep tonight, are we?

(Guys: I have a weird, vertigo-inducing migraine, and I have taken migraine medication, and I have also had a glass of wine. And this is all very nuts. I apologize if I am totally incoherent and/or loopy.)
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 6:38 PM on June 23, 2016


"not remotely as clear-cut as I thought it would be."

History suggests: often very clear cut.
posted by jaduncan at 6:38 PM on June 23, 2016


The currency markets are doing the same thing. The candlestick charts started going all-green as soon as Glasgow was called.
posted by chimaera at 6:39 PM on June 23, 2016


Now would be a good time to buy some pounds
posted by Flashman at 6:39 PM on June 23, 2016


The betting markets are basically just looking at the vote tracker on the BBC and following that.

I think the stock and commodities markets are doing the same thing.
posted by dirigibleman at 6:39 PM on June 23, 2016


Blimey, Remain is ahead. Well, while I'm typing this.

Yeah, apropos of "yuuuhhh" I've never forgotten the bookstore I used to frequent at lunchtimes and these two women would often come in and one of them would be chattering and the other would signal her agreement by saying, "EeeYUUUUURh. EeeYUUUUURh. EeeYUUUUURh. EeeYUUUUURh. EeeYUUUUURh. EeeYUUUUURh. EeeYUUUUURh." Always the same pattern of seven consecutive donkey-brays, and I counted fifteen sets on average per five- to seven-minute visit. It is probably relevant that the bookstore was in Sloane Square.

Of course, under the new EU legislation this would not be allowed.
posted by tel3path at 6:40 PM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


Hold the line!
posted by drezdn at 6:40 PM on June 23, 2016


Hard to see that - given the new fixed terms for parliament it's difficult to get a snap election.

Fixed election laws don't override Westminster parliamentary procedures. The government can still fall anytime, and an election be called, via a vote of non-confidence. Canada has had fixed election laws at both the federal level and in various provinces for about a decade, and there have still been snap elections. All a fixed election law does is short circuit the governing party's right to schedule a vote at a time most favourable to them.

But in this specific situation, it's not at all implausible that enough hard-right Conservatives could break with Cameron in a non-confidence motion.

But the more likely scenario is an internal Conservative Party putsch that force Cameron from power and puts a new party leader (and Prime Minister) in place. The scary thing is the new PM could be much further to the right, with that wing emboldened by an Leave win.
posted by dry white toast at 6:40 PM on June 23, 2016


American tuning in to results. Our PBS affiliate carried the BBC World News for an hour which had pretty good coverage and graphics. Now we're stuck with the SkyNews Roku channel and omgggg it's so bad. It's like going from watching Gwen Ifill to Wolf Blitzer.
posted by mostly vowels at 6:40 PM on June 23, 2016


Cameron is toast no matter which way the vote goes.

The one silver lining if Leave happens is that Cameron will forever be remembered as the pigfucker who destroyed the greatest hope of cooperation on the continent which had previously caused the two most devastating wars in human history.

Jesus fuck.
posted by tavegyl at 6:41 PM on June 23, 2016 [29 favorites]


Wandsworth 75% remain.
posted by jaduncan at 6:43 PM on June 23, 2016


Big-boob twitter is suggesting that people buy things from British bra emporium Bravissimo because the pound is so low.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 6:43 PM on June 23, 2016 [6 favorites]


Is there any explanation for why Wales appears to be all-in for Leave? I was under the impression that Wales might vote more in line with Northern Ireland and Scotland (and indeed, might also be a candidate for an independence referendum of their own).
posted by palindromic at 6:46 PM on June 23, 2016


American tuning in to results. Our PBS affiliate carried the BBC World News for an hour which had pretty good coverage and graphics. Now we're stuck with the SkyNews Roku channel and omgggg it's so bad. It's like going from watching Gwen Ifill to Wolf Blitzer.

I, uh, hear that there are sites you can find with a simple google search that have bootleg streams of BBC 1.
posted by zachlipton at 6:46 PM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


Fixed election laws don't override Westminster parliamentary procedures.

I seem to recall we discussed this in the last UK election thread, and there's some thought that the UK fixed-term laws are written very poorly?
posted by Pink Frost at 6:48 PM on June 23, 2016


I, uh, hear that there are sites you can find with a simple google search that have bootleg streams of BBC 1.

If anyone has CNN International, they're covering live also.
posted by dnash at 6:48 PM on June 23, 2016


If the UK is absorbed into the EU the way things are going, all of Europe will ultimately be economically controlled by London. (Okay, that's an argument FOR Leave, just not one FOR England)

The UK hasn't been successfully invaded since Willam of Orange.

And no attempts made since Adolph of Germany. That WILL eventually change if UK is not part of EU.
posted by oneswellfoop at 6:48 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


there's some thought that the UK fixed-term laws are written very poorly

Poorly written laws are one of our proudest traditions.
posted by dng at 6:49 PM on June 23, 2016 [9 favorites]


I'm watching the stream straight on the BBC news website. But now I wonder if I'm not supposed to be.
posted by chimaera at 6:49 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


And no attempts made since Adolph of Germany. That WILL eventually change if UK is not part of EU.

Leaving the EU doesn't mean leaving NATO. (Or will the US have to join the EU, too?)
posted by Chocolate Pickle at 6:49 PM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


UKIP MP Paul Nuttall: "If we lose, and it is only going to be very tight ... Anger is a very powerful emotion in politics and people, I think, will come to Ukip in their droves".
posted by paduasoy at 6:51 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Is there any explanation for why Wales appears to be all-in for Leave?

I get the sense that it's largely a result of a lot of anger at the current government and is a viewed as a way to kick them one but good. (cf Leanne Woods at the vote count in Cardiff -- Guardian has the video and a write-up in their liveblog, though it's a way's back now.) Most of Wales is...not great, economically, and there's a great deal of anger particularly at immigrants. (As someone who lived as an immigrant in Wales -- even an 'acceptable' one, being White and English-speaking -- never underestimate the level of racism there.)

Note that this is despite the huge amounts of money Wales gets from the EU. These are people seriously determined to make a point, even if it involves shooting themselves in the foot.
posted by kalimac at 6:53 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


UKIP MP Paul Nuttall: "If we lose, and it is only going to be very tight ... Anger is a very powerful emotion in politics and people, I think, will come to Ukip in their droves".

So, either way, more Nazis? What a rosy vision of the future.
posted by His thoughts were red thoughts at 6:53 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]



UKIP MP Paul Nuttall: "If we lose, and it is only going to be very tight ... Anger is a very powerful emotion in politics and people, I think, will come to Ukip in their droves".


FUCK YOU YOU FEARMONGERING FASCIST FUCK
posted by lalochezia at 6:53 PM on June 23, 2016 [36 favorites]


People on here saying that people in the UK are anti immigration are racist are so far out of line it is unreal. People are anti immigration as it has impacted negatively on their lives, something most people on here don't have to contend with, as mostly on here you all have nice, middle class jobs, you are not fighting for a job against immigrant labour.

There are people whose children are stuck on the dole and can't get work, meanwhile there are thousands of immigrants in their town who have jobs. Their children can't find a place to live as all the HMOs are full of immigrants, and due to the strain on the property market, rents are skyrocketing.

There are people who have lost jobs and been replaced by immigrant labour - I worked somewhere many years ago, and a few years after I left I saw someone who had been there when I was there, she was now working in a shop, and she said all the British had been replaced by Polish, and she won't be the only person with that sort of story. There are a million and a quarter people on the dole, and have been since mass immigration began, and the number has never gone below a million, and yet you all expect these people to be in favour of immigration? If you were stuck on the dole and had to watch as immigrants flooded into the country and you still couldn't get a job, try to imagine how that would make you feel.

Here is a story from my life: I got a job with an agency, the woman in the agency was Polish. There were 3 of us who got started. At the end, as we were leaving, 3 Polish guys came in and spoke to her in Polish. We started a couple of days later and then after 3 days the Polish guys from the agency turned up and we were finished. I knew someone who worked there and they said yeah, the 3 Poles got your jobs. Now imagine how many people have suffered similar fates.

Surely the duty of the state is to care for it's people, to provide jobs for them, but we aren't allowed to do that in the UK, we have to have a million or more poor, working class people on the dole because the EU says we have to have mass immigration. Can you understand why people are angry? It is fuck all to do with racism, and all to do with the reductions in opportunity for the working class, forced upon us by the EU.

Further, now that the people who have come her have had children, people can't get their children into the schools they want as the required amount of infrastructure to meet the demand has not been made - and wont be made as the corporations no longer pay any tax, and the rich avoid it on a massive scale, so there is not the money for it. There is almost no way for the poorest now to climb out of poverty, because they are struggling to make ends meet, they have to chose between heating and eating due to wage stagnation caused by immigration. So please, enough with the "you are all racist" - your lives have not been impacted in the same way as the lives of the poor. Immigration doesn't benefit the poorest, it benefits the rich and powerful, that is why they are in favour of it (do you really think they said "How can we make the poor peoples lives better? I know, mass immigration" - really? No, they did this to fuck us over and it has worked, and the left and the media and the academics are cheerleading them on, just like Chomsky said.
posted by marienbad at 6:53 PM on June 23, 2016 [5 favorites]


Anger is a very powerful emotion in politics and people, I think, will come to Ukip in their droves.

Huh, so your xenophobic dickbag politicians make Kinsley gaffes, too.
posted by tonycpsu at 6:54 PM on June 23, 2016


Also the government could fall if enough MPs go to the 1922 committee and say they want to give a vote of no confidence in the government (I think, I'm sure some politics wonk will clarify.)
posted by marienbad at 6:55 PM on June 23, 2016


Liverpool votes to remain (58/42) <3
posted by triggerfinger at 6:56 PM on June 23, 2016 [4 favorites]


So I hate to be That Guy, but I can't help but see some degree of analogy between the Leave vote in the UK and Trump support in the USA. In both countries the White working class is the base of support for a campaign against received wisdom of how politics and economics are supposed to work, largely out of a nihilistic sense that screwing over the elites is worth taking an economic hit.

It's really none of my business as I'm not British, European, or otherwise affected directly by this vote, but I find myself rooting for Brexit out of some most likely foolish optimism that a big shakeup in the Western system could lead to positive changes.

Best of luck to all in the UK and Europe tonight, whichever way this goes.
posted by 3urypteris at 6:57 PM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


"And no attempts made since Adolph of Germany. That WILL eventually change if UK is not part of EU."

Oh please, who is going to try to invade us? Spain? This is scaremongering nonsense, we will still be in NATO.
posted by marienbad at 6:58 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]



There are people whose children are stuck on the dole and can't get work, meanwhile there are thousands of immigrants in their town who have jobs. Their children can't find a place to live as all the HMOs are full of immigrants, and due to the strain on the property market, rents are skyrocketing.


Show me the actual stats behind your anecdote. Where are these "thousands of immigrants" in their town that stole your jobs? (if its a town do you really think there are thousands???) Where is the evidence that immigrants, (rather than property speculators) cause the property prices to rise?

You may not be "a racist" but you are promulgating unsupported statements that AID RACISTS AND XENOPHOBES. You are functionally supporting racism.
posted by lalochezia at 6:59 PM on June 23, 2016 [65 favorites]


Stupid American question filter: I am familiar with freedom of movement within the EU in terms of work and residency, but how does this affect *voting*? In other words, could a Polish citizen who is living and working in Britain vote in the referendum? Or is voting restricted to British citizens?
posted by mostly vowels at 6:59 PM on June 23, 2016


In other words, could a Polish citizen who is living and working in Britain vote in the referendum? Or is voting restricted to British citizens?

No, and no ;)

For some reason, EU citizens can't vote in UK elections. However citizens of (some?) Commonwealth nations can - for example as a New Zealander I could and did vote in UK elections.
posted by Pink Frost at 7:01 PM on June 23, 2016


In other words, could a Polish citizen who is living and working in Britain vote in the referendum? Or is voting restricted to British citizens?

Only Commonwealth citizens residing in the UK and UK citizens who have been abroad less then fifteen years.
posted by Talez at 7:01 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


The official Beeb stream is not region locked for me right now.
posted by BungaDunga at 7:02 PM on June 23, 2016 [4 favorites]


My telly just turned itself off for some reason. Good riddance.
posted by dng at 7:03 PM on June 23, 2016 [4 favorites]


Graph of UK unemployment jan 2004 - apr 2015

So you are saying there aren't thousands of immigrants here with jobs? Really? Come to my town, I'll take you to Diam, and other places on the industrial estate full of immigrant labour.
posted by marienbad at 7:03 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


EU immigration doesn't seem to be causing problems where my parents live. It's saving a suburb of an unloved town that was in decline, and I don't hear too much that's bad, in the wide cross section of people I meet. The poorest people are very adaptable because everything changes so much. And there's plenty of places in Britain where there's no pressure in housing.

It's a little further up the ladder where people are feeling insecure, and not equipped with enough information about how to make themselves secure, or even a pathway to that information.
posted by ambrosen at 7:04 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


I have a lot of sympathy for the Brexit - but I also agree that much of the sentiment is the same as the Trump sentiment.
posted by corb at 7:04 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


People are anti immigration as it has impacted negatively on their lives

No. They are worse off economically than they were 20/30/40 years ago, and they are choosing to blame immigration. Those are different things.
posted by dry white toast at 7:04 PM on June 23, 2016 [65 favorites]


So you are saying there aren't thousands of immigrants here with jobs? Really? Come to my town, I'll take you to Diam, and other places on the industrial estate full of immigrant labour.

Migrants also expand the economy. Your fallacy is assuming that a fixed number of jobs exist.
posted by jaduncan at 7:05 PM on June 23, 2016 [13 favorites]



So you are saying there aren't thousands of immigrants here with jobs?


You said "meanwhile there are thousands of immigrants in their town who have jobs". Town singular. Not country. TOWN.

Show me this town with thousands of immigrants that have taken tbousands of jobs from your friends. .I call BULLSHIT. Classic fear-mongering. Why not just call them cockroaches and get it over with?
posted by lalochezia at 7:05 PM on June 23, 2016 [24 favorites]


Only Commonwealth citizens residing in the UK and UK citizens who have been abroad less then fifteen years.

And resident Irish citizens.
posted by Emma May Smith at 7:06 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]



Oh please, who is going to try to invade us? Spain?


A seed is planted in Philip XXXV's mind.
posted by drezdn at 7:06 PM on June 23, 2016 [6 favorites]


(I'm assuming you don't complain on a similar basis when British mothers have babies).
posted by jaduncan at 7:06 PM on June 23, 2016 [6 favorites]


Oh please, who is going to try to invade us? Spain? This is scaremongering nonsense, we will still be in NATO

So is Spain. But even in some fantastic prepper-fantasy Clancy-Dale-Peters-Ringo technothriller NATO schism scenario the US and Canada would not tolerate a Spanish (lol) invasion of the UK.

I'm imagining an axis of Spain, Italy and Greece, organized around annihilating its enemies.....tomorrow morning.

At least we get the old Dad jokes back, right? sob
posted by snuffleupagus at 7:06 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


"Graph of UK unemployment jan 2004 - apr 2015"

... your graph shows functionally full employment. Unemployment doesn't really go below 5% in modern economies.
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 7:06 PM on June 23, 2016 [13 favorites]


so why are there British people on the dole then? If the economy has expanded, why has unemployment among brits not gone below a million?
posted by marienbad at 7:07 PM on June 23, 2016


Graph of UK unemployment jan 2004 - apr 2015

And if you go back earlier you see that unemployment was much higher in the early 80s (Thatcherism) and the early 90s (recession). It then shot up in 2008 because of the Lehman Brothers collapse and market turmoil and then (by your figures) fell again. Nothing correlated with immigration at all.
posted by Pink Frost at 7:07 PM on June 23, 2016 [31 favorites]




Whaaa...? You mean I could vote in the UK elections if I lived there? British citizens could vote in Nova Scotia elections up until about a decade ago, but I had no idea the franchise went the other way.
posted by GhostintheMachine at 7:07 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Even if there are valid left-wing reasons for the UK to leave the EU, it looks to me as though a Leave win will mainly empower the right-wing.
posted by maggiemaggie at 7:08 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


marienbad, if you're going to link to things, you should probably read them first.

Your last link gives several explanations for UK unemployment. Immigration is not one of them.
posted by Sys Rq at 7:08 PM on June 23, 2016 [24 favorites]


Other European countries need to seriously think about how they raise awareness of what exactly is funded, what exactly is protected, and what exactly is prevented by the EU. It's a good thing, but the media isn't covering the good things they do well enough.

Perhaps. That said, I (non-EU citizen, so many grains of salt) have never been more of a euroskeptic than after I visited the Parlamentarium museum in Brussels. My concern began when I found five very helpful multiligual staff just standing around to help visitors operate the lockers, and continued when I realized how many millions they spent on the place in the middle of austerity.

Now is that a stupid example? Absolutely. But I'm not convinced that lists of "here's the good stuff the EU pays for" will be enough to convince the "here's how many EU regulations a eurosausage has to comply with" crowd.
posted by zachlipton at 7:09 PM on June 23, 2016


so why are there British people on the dole then? If the economy has expanded, why has unemployment among brits not gone below a million?

Are you honestly saying you can conceive of no other reason but immigration for unemployment levels?
posted by jaduncan at 7:09 PM on June 23, 2016 [12 favorites]


... your graph shows functionally full employment.

no it shows a million people on the dole.

Right I have to go to bed as I have to work two jobs to make ends meet (and even then I cant) so I am going to sleep - tomorrow will be well busy as it is open fucking day. Hopefully we will be out of the EU by then.

also, yeah, nice to see a bit of name calling on mefi.
posted by marienbad at 7:09 PM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


it looks to me as though a Leave win will mainly empower the right-wing.

And a subsequent Scottish IndyRef Part 2, if successful, would give Parliament to the Tories possibly for a generation.
posted by chimaera at 7:10 PM on June 23, 2016


so why are there British people on the dole then? If the economy has expanded, why has unemployment among brits not gone below a million?

Because the government arbitrarily decided to reduce the public sector by a third over the last six years?
posted by dng at 7:10 PM on June 23, 2016 [36 favorites]


The map is looking very odd. Scotland and London all Remain so far. Wales all Leave except Ceredigion (why is that an outlier?). England steadily building up Leave except for 7 LAs.
posted by paduasoy at 7:11 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


How do you look at that graph and not see things improving?
posted by czytm at 7:11 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


Please explain why there have been a million people on the dole while millions of immigrants can come here and get jobs? No one has done this.

Maybe people are unemployed because you're hogging all the jobs.

Yeah, funny. I ask a serious question and this is what I get?

Anyway, bed calls, I am tired from work, have fun.
posted by marienbad at 7:11 PM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


also, yeah, nice to see a bit of name calling on mefi.

That was not good.
posted by Flashman at 7:11 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


Is this guy credible? :/

Yes.
posted by jaduncan at 7:12 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Tl;dr: we are so, so fucked.
posted by jaduncan at 7:12 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Is this guy credible? :/

That's not what's on the Beeb's crawl right now:

"Close Result Expected"
50.5% v. 49.5%
posted by snuffleupagus at 7:12 PM on June 23, 2016


Dumfries and Galloway are the only possibility of breaking Scotland's constituency-level combo.
posted by chimaera at 7:13 PM on June 23, 2016


so why are there British people on the dole then? If the economy has expanded, why has unemployment among brits not gone below a million?

Friend, you are fixating on an easy scapegoat for huge economic problems that have plagued western nations ever since the 2008 recession. Many nations have recovered, but all of them have significant immigration. Maybe read up a bit more from a broad variety of sources. The world is not so black and white. If you think employment is an issue now, wait until England can't so easily trade with other countries.
posted by dry white toast at 7:13 PM on June 23, 2016 [36 favorites]


The complaints of... certain posters here show that there has been a problem in creating a "European" identity. Ideally (well, from a pro-EU view of things), a Polish person getting a job in the UK should be like a person from Mississippi getting a job in Ohio -- completely unremarkable.
posted by dhens at 7:13 PM on June 23, 2016 [12 favorites]


Anyone care to explain why Liverpool voted so strongly for Remain?
posted by maggiemaggie at 7:14 PM on June 23, 2016


a Polish person getting a job in the UK should be like a person from Mississippi getting a job in Ohio -- completely unremarkable

I don't think that was ever a realistic possibility in the medium term.
posted by Justinian at 7:14 PM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


It does seem to be widening in favor of Leave, though, and perhaps it's predictable due to whose votes have been counted so far.
posted by snuffleupagus at 7:14 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]



Anyone care to explain why Liverpool voted so strongly for Remain?


Because we know what it's like to be scapegoated for a problem we didn't cause, by powerful assholes who claim to speak for the working class.
posted by lalochezia at 7:15 PM on June 23, 2016 [45 favorites]


"... your graph shows functionally full employment."
no it shows a million people on the dole.


Right, which is bad, and 5% of 40 million working-age Britons is a big number. HOWEVER it's not going to get any lower if you leave the EU because the unemployment rate in a modern economy doesn't get any lower. If you were told the unemployment rate would fall from just above 5% by leaving the EU, you were massively lied to by people who definitely know better. That number's not going down any farther whether you stop all immigrants from coming in, leave the EU, shoot Britain to the moon, or invent the next Google. The economy will readjust until there's at least that much slack in the labor market.

It's shitty to be part of the 5%, but that number is not going lower. You deal with it through generous unemployment benefits, retraining benefits, and a sturdy social safety net -- which are domestic policy issues that domestic UK politicians have been busily eviscerating for the past several years.
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 7:16 PM on June 23, 2016 [101 favorites]


Or maybe those percentages were regional. I'm not entirely sure how to read their rotating banner thing.
posted by snuffleupagus at 7:16 PM on June 23, 2016


Don't know how much effect this had, but the Liverpool Echo supported Remain.
posted by paduasoy at 7:17 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Still trying to figure out if Britain leaving the EU will in any way explain why Jean-Luc Picard had a British accent in Star Trek: The Next Generation.

Years ago I'd postulated a Chunnel War of some sort, but a post-Brexit diaspora seems more likely now. However, since Khan and his supermen never did take over parts of the world, all history is in flux.
posted by fifteen schnitzengruben is my limit at 7:17 PM on June 23, 2016 [10 favorites]


Anyone care to explain why Liverpool voted so strongly for Remain?

Complete guess: A port city sees the value of being able to trade freely with other countries?
posted by dry white toast at 7:18 PM on June 23, 2016 [5 favorites]


Because we know what it's like to be scapegoated for a problem we didn't cause, by powerful assholes who claim to speak for the working class.

That's the harshest description of The Beatles that I've ever seen.
posted by drezdn at 7:18 PM on June 23, 2016 [50 favorites]


This year is officially off the fucking rails.
posted by Annika Cicada at 7:19 PM on June 23, 2016 [57 favorites]


Anyone care to explain why Liverpool voted so strongly for Remain?

Liverpool has historically been one of the major destinations for immigrants to the UK (starting with the Irish back in the 18th and 19th centuries), so that could be a big part of it.
posted by un petit cadeau at 7:19 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


I know lots of immigrants from the EU with jobs here. They're my doctors and nurses who literally keep me alive. They're my colleagues in the higher education sector who train our students for better jobs. And, obviously, I'm glad they're here.
posted by edd at 7:19 PM on June 23, 2016 [14 favorites]


Talez: "Immortal last fucking words."

Think of the worst divorce you've ever seen. Got it? OK, this is going to be messier than that.

Pink Frost: "I seem to recall we discussed this in the last UK election thread, and there's some thought that the UK fixed-term laws are written very poorly?"

A vote of No-Confidence is still a no confidence vote. The government can't enact any new legislation until after an election even if the fixed term legislation lets them zombie along as the government.

Chocolate Pickle: "Leaving the EU doesn't mean leaving NATO. (Or will the US have to join the EU, too?)"

Wow you know the end times are nigh when the EU goes to war with the UK and the US has to decide which ally to support (Sorry about that lack of support UK).
posted by Mitheral at 7:20 PM on June 23, 2016


Hilary Benn on the BBC just now: "It's not late enough to know. Which is, I suppose, another way to say, it's too early to tell."
posted by Flashman at 7:20 PM on June 23, 2016 [5 favorites]


these trends look SHIT
posted by lalochezia at 7:21 PM on June 23, 2016


a Polish person getting a job in the UK should be like a person from Mississippi getting a job in Ohio -- completely unremarkable

I don't think that was ever a realistic possibility in the medium term.


I think some of this is because of some of the major backers of the EU are cosmopolitan "Europeans" who perhaps don't realize that people without the time / means to travel (and most importantly, learn languages), will not feel as "at home" all over Europe as some of them.

Yeah. I wonder if (hopefully) the UK stays, this would become more and more likely?
posted by dhens at 7:21 PM on June 23, 2016 [4 favorites]


I forgot to mention, they're also the people that help pay for the doctors and nurses and the medication that literally keeps me alive.
posted by edd at 7:23 PM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


Wow, Canada's unemployment rate spiked in late 2008 and returned back down in the past year just like marienbad's linked graph... can I blame immigrants to the UK for unemployment in Canada, too?
posted by GhostintheMachine at 7:24 PM on June 23, 2016 [8 favorites]


Complete guess: A port city sees the value of being able to trade freely with other countries?

Grimsby, the biggest port by tonnage in England, voted heavily for Leave.
posted by Emma May Smith at 7:25 PM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


More pro-Leave propaganda charts available here.
posted by tonycpsu at 7:26 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


They're my colleagues in the higher education sector who train our students for better jobs. And, obviously, I'm glad they're here.

Yuuup. I taught in the UK for a year. I had two great colleagues who are from the continent and they have now moved from their jobs in the UK to a job in the Netherlands and a job in the Republic of Ireland, I think in part in anticipation of Brexit. Another colleague in the UK just recently obtained a massive grant from the European Research Council, which pours large amounts of money into UK Higher Ed. He of course voted Remain. I wonder what will happen to his project in case of Brexit?
posted by dhens at 7:27 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Complete guess: A port city sees the value of being able to trade freely with other countries?

Tendring, which covers Harwich, will be hugely Leave, whenever that declares. Suffolk Coastal (covering Felixstowe) probably will be as well.
posted by dng at 7:28 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Pound cliffing again.
posted by Emma May Smith at 7:28 PM on June 23, 2016


I promise you Americans speculating on how likely it is that people from other parts of Europe get jobs in the UK (and to a lesser extent, vice versa) that it's completely normal and unremarkable in my office, which isn't cosmopolitan.
posted by ambrosen at 7:28 PM on June 23, 2016 [4 favorites]


Pound now down 6%.
posted by jaduncan at 7:30 PM on June 23, 2016


I promise you Americans speculating on how likely it is that people from other parts of Europe get jobs in the UK (and to a lesser extent, vice versa) that it's completely normal and unremarkable in my office, which isn't cosmopolitan.

Oh yeah, I noticed it a lot both in the UK and elsewhere in the EU. I am just saying that for some people, it's apparently an issue.
posted by dhens at 7:31 PM on June 23, 2016


Guardian live blog reporting: "The Labour party is now working on the assumption that leave will win, according to party source."
posted by maggiemaggie at 7:31 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Guardian live blog reporting: "The Labour party is now working on the assumption that leave will win, according to party source."

Looks like I picked the wrong week to stop sniffing glue.

I wonder if the people hurt by the falling pound will blame immigrants for that too.
posted by Justinian at 7:33 PM on June 23, 2016 [25 favorites]


Complete guess: A port city sees the value of being able to trade freely with other countries?

Tendring, which covers Harwich, will be hugely Leave, whenever that declares. Suffolk Coastal (covering Felixstowe) probably will be as well.


Welp, shows what I know. Others' explanations about immigration in Liverpool make much more sense as a working theory.
posted by dry white toast at 7:35 PM on June 23, 2016


Immigrants have been used by the powerful as a scapegoat on which the working classes can focus their anger for so long now that you'd think we'd be wise to it. But sadly it keeps on working.
posted by Existential Dread at 7:35 PM on June 23, 2016 [28 favorites]


Farage "delighted" about Sheffield result.
posted by paduasoy at 7:36 PM on June 23, 2016


So how the hell do Leave negotiations even work? Does every EU country just basically get to demand whatever they want from the UK in exchange for tariff reductions? Can Spain demand Gibraltar (I mean it's one of the most strategically important ports in the world, surely there's an argument it should be under EU control, right)? Can every EU country demand a couple Beefeaters for tourism purposes?
posted by zachlipton at 7:37 PM on June 23, 2016


"Sheffield is 51% Leave. It was predicted to go Remain on 52%"
Posner: Do you ever look at your life?
Tom Irwin: I thought everybody did.
Posner: I'm a Jew... I'm small... I'm homosexual... and I live in Sheffield... I'm fucked.
--The History Boys
posted by zachlipton at 7:38 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


If it helps you guys feel better, here are the soothing sounds of Neil Diamond, on VH1 Storytellers.
posted by Huffy Puffy at 7:39 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


So how the hell do Leave negotiations even work?

And isn't this technically a non-binding vote? As far as I understand it, a referendum has no actual force unless Parliament enacts something to enable it...what happens if they don't?
posted by T.D. Strange at 7:41 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


So how the hell do Leave negotiations even work?

No-one knows, because the leave campaign never bothered to actually publish a paper or undertook any research at all about what would happen afterwards. Because who needs planning when you've got desire.
posted by dng at 7:41 PM on June 23, 2016 [23 favorites]


I'm going to bed soon. I cannot imagine how Leave can lose this now. The lead keeps growing and even strong Remains from London seem unlikely to pull it back.
posted by Emma May Smith at 7:43 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


And isn't this technically a non-binding vote? As far as I understand it, a referendum has no actual force unless Parliament enacts something to enable it...what happens if they don't?

Then membership in the UKIP jumps massively.
posted by Chocolate Pickle at 7:43 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Canterbury votes to leave?

Leave up by nearly 500,000 now.
posted by TWinbrook8 at 7:43 PM on June 23, 2016


So how the hell do Leave negotiations even work?

And isn't this technically a non-binding vote? As far as I understand it, a referendum has no actual force unless Parliament enacts something to enable it...what happens if they don't?


Dear Britain,

Can we interest you in a Clarity Act?

Sincerely,
Canada
posted by dry white toast at 7:43 PM on June 23, 2016 [5 favorites]


If it helps you guys feel better, here are the soothing sounds of Neil Diamond, on VH1 Storytellers.

"Few people know that I'm fueled creatively by my massive hatred of immigrants."
posted by dhens at 7:44 PM on June 23, 2016 [5 favorites]


London is barely in? Why is everyone assuming Leave will win?
posted by zutalors! at 7:44 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


As far as I understand it, a referendum has no actual force unless Parliament enacts something to enable it...what happens if they don't?

More assassinations.
posted by dirigibleman at 7:45 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


Hard to see that - given the new fixed terms for parliament it's difficult to get a snap election. Need a vote of no confidence or 2/3 vote of parliament.

BBC analyst is pointing out that they could just change the Fixed-term Parliaments Act and get a new election that way. It's hard to imagine Cameron staying on, but whether the Conservatives put up a new PM without a new election seems hard to predict.
posted by zachlipton at 7:45 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


And isn't this technically a non-binding vote? As far as I understand it, a referendum has no actual force unless Parliament enacts something to enable it...what happens if they don't?

Yep, it's not binding. In this case, the government would apply to leave the EU under Article 50 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union, which would start a two-year withdrawal process. But no-one knows what that would look like, or what forms negotiations would take - because no-one's done it before.
posted by Pink Frost at 7:46 PM on June 23, 2016


Given that the market is taking something fierce and everybody in England is now 6% 8% poorer than they were at this time last night, a case might be made that this is too damaging to actually do.

Either way, you'll probably end up with Boris in charge and then you can watch him loot what remains standing.
posted by fifteen schnitzengruben is my limit at 7:46 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


Oh fuck. There's still hope, isn't there? Right?
posted by jokeefe at 7:46 PM on June 23, 2016


Hey, can someone tell if me the world economy is about to explode? tia
posted by theodolite at 7:47 PM on June 23, 2016 [5 favorites]


A lot of people here have been asking why the pre-election polls were so wrong about this. I think we're seeing an example of Social Desireability Bias.

In this case it means that there has been so much propaganda about this election emphasizing how important "stay" is, and insulting and running down people who want to "leave" (and calling them racist and nazis and so on) that a lot of voters have been lying to pollsters about how they intend to vote.

Once in the privacy of the polling booth, they no longer have to pretend, so as a result you're seeing a lot more "leave" votes than the pollsters predicted.

Another example of Social Desireability Bias is the "Bradley Effect".
posted by Chocolate Pickle at 7:47 PM on June 23, 2016 [11 favorites]


I hope Manchester United already cut that check for Zlatan.
posted by Huffy Puffy at 7:48 PM on June 23, 2016 [5 favorites]


And isn't this technically a non-binding vote? As far as I understand it, a referendum has no actual force unless Parliament enacts something to enable it...what happens if they don't?

"Prime Minister Farage" Maybe not 100% cert but if a Con/Lab coalition decides to ignore a leave result UKIP will be right there for anyone who thought their leave vote meant something.

Looking at the results, the only reason this is even close is because of Scotland. And the Scottish votes are almost all counted. Without a million + vote swing in England this is looking like a leave victory.
posted by Grimgrin at 7:48 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


So I hate to be That Guy, but I can't help but see some degree of analogy between the Leave vote in the UK and Trump support in the USA.

I'd say to a large degree both of these are the working out of the anger and displacement caused by the 2007/2008 Recessions, combined with 30-40 years of steadily squeezing of the middle-lower classes & greater concentration of wealth at the top.

Even though, it is true, unemployment rates of returned to a more reasonable place, still lots of people are worse off than before; and certainly feel like they are worse off than before.

See discussion right up-thread here dead to right on this very point. Whether you accept their explanation/reasons or not (immigration, big government, etc), their feelings and their anger are quite real.

Brexit & Trump (and similar movements like the Tea Party) are trading on this mass feeling of anger and helplessness, and offering solutions.

If you don't like the solutions that Brexit & Trump are offering, you'd better get busy offering better ones--and spending a lot of time explaining to a lot of people why they are better. Because they truly are mad and they truly do not see why these solutions (Brexit/Trump/Tea Party etc) are not perfectly reasonable.

I will confess that one of my frustrations about the Great Recession is how effectively the oligarchs have been able to harness the resulting fear and anger in a way that improves their own standing while robbing everyone else. There was a massive opportunity in 2007/2008/2009 to make some real structural changes that would have hugely benefited the 99% and the democratic process. Instead, everything went to the benefit of the 0.1% with the excuse that, "This is an EMERGENCY now; We don't have ANY choice." Yeah, we had to act, but we could have taken an action to benefit the 99% and also save the economy; instead we funneled the same $$$ directly to the 0.1% and saved the economy.

When you do this, you make people mad. Very mad. They feel the unfairness in their bones even if they don't totally understand it.

And then the self-same oligarchs see some nice opportunities to channel that mass anger in directions that will benefit the 0.1% even more, while screwing the 99% even more.

And so it goes . . .

posted by flug at 7:49 PM on June 23, 2016 [60 favorites]


TWinbrook8, I'd thought all of Kent was likely to be Leave given the immigration issue there. Ukip got 14% of the vote in Canterbury last year. There are a lot of students, but maybe voting at their home addresses.
posted by paduasoy at 7:49 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


A lot of people here have been asking why the pre-election polls were so wrong about this. I think we're seeing an example of Social Desireability Bias.

Perhaps, but the flip-side of that is reversion to the status quo, which we saw much more in the Scottish independence referendum and are apparently not seeing so much here.
posted by zachlipton at 7:50 PM on June 23, 2016


If not "explode", then certainly "recede".
posted by penduluum at 7:50 PM on June 23, 2016


Also: Goddammit, there goes my EU passport. Fuck.
posted by jokeefe at 7:50 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


Another colleague in the UK just recently obtained a massive grant from the European Research Council, which pours large amounts of money into UK Higher Ed. He of course voted Remain. I wonder what will happen to his project in case of Brexit?

FYI, I looked it up and researchers from outside the EU are still eligible (they fund research in Norway, for example). Still, as an EU body, I wonder if they will (subliminally) shy away from future funding of UK projects.
posted by dhens at 7:50 PM on June 23, 2016


I wonder what will happen to his project in case of Brexit?

The ERC funds researchers also from outside the union, so chances are that the current project can proceed. For future activities, he has to talk to Boris' brother and hope that they'll ramp up spending (the UK spends less than the EU average on research on their own). Unless they replace him with friend-of-all-experts Gove, or something, at which point all bets are off.
posted by effbot at 7:50 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


2016 - It's too close to call between Death Year and Year of Idiocy.
posted by srboisvert at 7:53 PM on June 23, 2016 [8 favorites]


That mention of Gove made me head over to slap him. There were another 90 people doing the same.
posted by paduasoy at 7:53 PM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


its not often that a scouser says this but thank fuck for chelsea and manchester
posted by lalochezia at 7:55 PM on June 23, 2016 [12 favorites]


It's 3am and I don't want to go to sleep. What will I be waking up to?
posted by litleozy at 7:55 PM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


Brexit & Trump (and similar movements like the Tea Party) are trading on this mass feeling of anger and helplessness, and offering solutions.
"Solutions" that will put more power and money into the hands of the people with all the power and money. Good job, ninnies.
posted by oneswellfoop at 7:57 PM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


Scientists do get EU funding in the UK in a high proportion, but we generally feel the real benefit comes from increased links, not increased funding.
posted by edd at 7:58 PM on June 23, 2016 [5 favorites]


Is it too much to hope that people in the US will see this and start to understand the ramifications of a President Trump?

Yeah, it's too much isn't it?
posted by COD at 7:58 PM on June 23, 2016 [14 favorites]


I wonder if the people hurt by the falling pound will blame immigrants for that too.

hey, there will be fewer jobs for an immigrant to steal from a hard working Real Brit. silver lining.
posted by Krom Tatman at 7:58 PM on June 23, 2016 [5 favorites]


President Trump is the only scenario in which any country will even talk to Britain after this. Maybe he'll even let us join!
posted by dng at 7:59 PM on June 23, 2016


Well, if there's one silver lining to all this, I have relatives vising family in the UK right now. Their vacation just got a lot cheaper. Shit, things keep going the way they're going they might be able to pick up an otherwise too expensive souvenir. Bournemouth would look nice in the living room.
posted by Grimgrin at 8:00 PM on June 23, 2016 [15 favorites]


I don't think the pound would have dropped this much if the actual fucking Bank of England was blown up by a Bond villain
posted by theodolite at 8:02 PM on June 23, 2016 [54 favorites]


I'm in a bar in the Mission in San Francisco and one of the two TVs is showing live coverage of the results. I have been chatting a bit with a guy who's English (and a regular, hence the TV showing BBC World News) and he's thinking he's going to be weeping into his beer soon. He's not the only Brit in here, and all of them look depressed.
posted by rtha at 8:02 PM on June 23, 2016 [4 favorites]


exactly gimgrin, I'm like, "Thanks for not a lot, Brexit, but at least you made my honeymoon in september cheaper."
posted by Annika Cicada at 8:02 PM on June 23, 2016


This is good for Bitcoin.
posted by biogeo at 8:02 PM on June 23, 2016 [4 favorites]


(and calling them racist and nazis and so on)

I think you have that backwards; it was Gove who called people nazis, not the other way around.

As for who's the racist, I (again) present you with Leave campaign highlights like Abandon Ship and Breaking Point.
posted by effbot at 8:02 PM on June 23, 2016 [9 favorites]


Given that the market is taking something fierce and everybody in England is now 6% 8% 9% poorer than they were at this time last night

(And falling, with no end in sight)
posted by dirigibleman at 8:02 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


Bournemouth would look nice in the living room.

Please, take it. Could do you a deal with Weymouth and Poole too.
posted by paduasoy at 8:02 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


gbp/usd went from 1.40 to 1.36 within the last hour or so. The markets are now betting on a brexit.
posted by plep at 8:02 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Oh good, now Nigel Farage is giving a speech about "victory for real people"
posted by theodolite at 8:03 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


Reload this page and watch the pound plummet. Wild.
posted by oulipian at 8:03 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Proper fucking V for Vendetta speech here from Nigel Farage.
posted by dng at 8:03 PM on June 23, 2016 [10 favorites]


Sigh. Well, the world may be ending, but I'm going to buy some cheap bras.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 8:04 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


He actually said the victory was won without "a single bullet" fired.

What a turd.

And was that really an ID4 reference at the end? Ugh.
posted by snuffleupagus at 8:05 PM on June 23, 2016 [7 favorites]


The Mexican peso (vs usd) just jumped up. woe.
posted by dhruva at 8:06 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


For context, gbp/usd has gone from a peak of 1.49 to 1.36 within the last 24 hours. This is the steepest dive since 1992.
posted by plep at 8:07 PM on June 23, 2016


This is good for Bitcoin.

BTC/USD +13%
posted by save alive nothing that breatheth at 8:08 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


He actually said the victory was won without "a single bullet" fired.

Fuck me, I was listening to the shite and I missed this bit.

On the plus side, my donation in US dollars in memoriam will be worth more than ever.
posted by kalimac at 8:08 PM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


It's Labour you can't trust with the economy, though.
posted by dng at 8:08 PM on June 23, 2016 [4 favorites]


>450k vote difference at ~50% votes. it's over people.
posted by lalochezia at 8:09 PM on June 23, 2016


victory was won without "a single bullet" fired.

wrong
posted by theodolite at 8:10 PM on June 23, 2016 [82 favorites]


The economy will readjust until there's at least that much slack in the labor market.


The economy does not readjust. The economy is readjusted. It's a peeve of mine that people attribute agency to the economy.

The employment rate is maintained by the central banking authorities who play with cash flow to try and produce that 5 percent rate which is deemed to be a goldilocks value that keeps the economy growing just enough but keeps inflation down (full employment results in inflation because companies have to pay more to hire workers - though these days workers are so underpaid relative to productivity that there should be a lot of slack in the system).

The UK, having its own currency, controls this whether they are in or out of the EU. Some other EU countries though are pretty screwed by this because they can't manipulate how hot their economies are independently.
posted by srboisvert at 8:10 PM on June 23, 2016 [6 favorites]


Oh good, now Nigel Farage is giving a speech about "victory for real people"

Here at the bar we discussed whether we should huck things at the TV when he came on.
posted by rtha at 8:12 PM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


"Cheap pound would be great for UK exports were the UK not withdrawing from the world's biggest integrated market." --Matt Yglesias
posted by Pater Aletheias at 8:13 PM on June 23, 2016 [29 favorites]


"He actually said the victory was won without "a single bullet" fired. "

Dante has risen from his grave and is writing a tenth circle of hell JUST FOR THIS ASSHOLE.
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 8:13 PM on June 23, 2016 [66 favorites]


victory was won without "a single bullet" fired.

Absolutely disgusting.
posted by maggiemaggie at 8:14 PM on June 23, 2016 [19 favorites]


I cannot fucking believe I am seeing this.
posted by Annika Cicada at 8:17 PM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


this is what you get when you elect conservative governments too weak to stand up properly to their fascist wing......

......and labor governments who are too busy kissing the neoliberal ring at the cost of working class communities.

i just can't even
posted by lalochezia at 8:17 PM on June 23, 2016 [29 favorites]


Reload this page and watch the pound plummet. Wild.

xe.com just returns error for me, must be getting hammered.
posted by wallabear at 8:18 PM on June 23, 2016 [4 favorites]


its not often that a scouser says this but thank fuck for chelsea and manchester

Much as I hate LFC, I know we can rely on Scousers to do the right thing at the polling booth.

But Salford went leave? WTF?
posted by Pink Frost at 8:18 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Yahoo actually has a live chart of GBP vs USD.
posted by oulipian at 8:19 PM on June 23, 2016 [5 favorites]


Pound is at $1.34 and still falling. Holy crap.
posted by un petit cadeau at 8:20 PM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


Is this what happens when you have the govt turn a blind eye to peoples problems?
posted by asra at 8:20 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


This is stupefying. I'm very sorry for the UK posters here.
posted by codacorolla at 8:21 PM on June 23, 2016 [22 favorites]


Corbyn, for all I agree with his policies, hasn't led the Labour party even slightly, and I'm sad and disillusioned.
posted by ambrosen at 8:23 PM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


Is there any chance the London Stock Exchange does not open tomorrow to try and curb this free fall? Would that even help?
posted by palindromic at 8:23 PM on June 23, 2016


We are so fucked.
posted by Devonian at 8:24 PM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


So, looks like you guys has gotten yourself a new holiday, the "UK Independence Day" (abbreviated UKIԀ).
posted by effbot at 8:24 PM on June 23, 2016 [4 favorites]


The world trade markets are gonna be a freak out tomorrow.
posted by Annika Cicada at 8:24 PM on June 23, 2016 [5 favorites]


The Leaver on Radio 4 just said "nothing is going to happen" re the economy while the interviewer is audibly sputtering
posted by theodolite at 8:24 PM on June 23, 2016 [5 favorites]


VOTE NATIONAL ECONOMIC SUICIDE
posted by dng at 8:25 PM on June 23, 2016 [11 favorites]


Leave.eu, although not the official campaign, did say that they would honour the status all EU citizens already here and considered them settled. All Leavers I've spoken to agree that that's the right thing to do, though I don't kid myself that it is the opinion of everybody. I personally think we don't have an option but to let them stay.

This is not how it will work out in practice. Hell, it's barely how it works now. My "current status" is "doesn't count as resident in the UK except when you're in work" which means that, what with the being unable to work at the moment for health reasons, that my position here is incredibly tenuous as is, and that the ten years plus I have been living here - my entire adult life - count for shit all.
posted by Dysk at 8:25 PM on June 23, 2016 [19 favorites]


Jesus Mary and Joseph, the Brits are supposed to be smarter than us.

What the actual fuck?
posted by Mooski at 8:25 PM on June 23, 2016 [5 favorites]


Even on the other side of the world, this is terrifying.
posted by crossoverman at 8:25 PM on June 23, 2016 [4 favorites]


I thought, surely, once you'd fucked a pig, you couldn't do anything worse to your legacy....
posted by tzikeh at 8:26 PM on June 23, 2016 [40 favorites]


Jesus spraytanned christ on a segway what is happening in the goddamn world?

Good luck Brits and may this not foreshadow God Emperor Trump.
posted by Skorgu at 8:26 PM on June 23, 2016 [5 favorites]



Jesus Mary and Joseph, the Brits are supposed to be smarter than us.

What the actual fuck?


have you actually met real brits?
posted by lalochezia at 8:27 PM on June 23, 2016 [26 favorites]


I am hoping that there's lots of people working behind closed doors to make sure Britain gets a 6 month ass-kicking and gets to withdraw its withdrawal as long as it promises to act like a grown up from now on.

I think I'm thinking wishfully though.
posted by ambrosen at 8:27 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


Well, I'm on the verge of tears, but I will say I am so very proud of Scotland. I'm looking forward to their forthcoming independence, I expect great things.

All my thoughts and prayers are with you all!
posted by getting_back_on_track at 8:27 PM on June 23, 2016 [25 favorites]


I'm doubtful that Britain will actually leave the EU. The ref is non-binding, and there is simply too much wealth at stake that the wealthy elite will allow Britain to leave. I'm guessing that even if the ref results in a clear sentiment to leave the EU, a way forward will be found to prevent this or at least hollow out "leaving" so much that the result is effectively the same as staying.

Just my opinion from across the pond.
posted by InsertNiftyNameHere at 8:27 PM on June 23, 2016 [4 favorites]


Dysk. all the hugs.
posted by Annika Cicada at 8:28 PM on June 23, 2016 [10 favorites]


Doesn't matter if we leave or not, fascism won, and that's going to be a lasting stain.
posted by Artw at 8:28 PM on June 23, 2016 [48 favorites]


I'm constantly refreshing the results page to see if my constituency has declared yet. I do not know why I am doing this. It is not possible that it has not voted Leave. I need to talk to my cat, who will bite me and piss off, and then I need to go to bed. My brother-in-law's job is likely to be vulnerable now - mine hopefully not but I do not want to deal with the amount of hate and muddled thinking in the UK. Also, Sturgeon now talking about another Scottish referendum.
posted by paduasoy at 8:28 PM on June 23, 2016


GBP is at 30 year low against USD.
posted by Kabanos at 8:29 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


I'm pulling my money out of gold, oil, and stocks and buying Cadbury Flake. I feel for you, England, and hope this gets better before it gets worse.
posted by vrakatar at 8:29 PM on June 23, 2016


The pound is down almost 15% vs. the yen. This is recession-level lows.
posted by armage at 8:29 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


have you actually met real brits?

Yes, and I'm from Florida, thanks.
posted by Mooski at 8:29 PM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


I'm guessing that even if the ref results in a clear sentiment to leave the EU, a way forward will be found to prevent this or at least hollow out "leaving" so much that the result is effectively the same as staying.

I think you may be underestimating the desire of the rest of the EU to punish the UK severely both for giving up on the entire European project, and as a message to the ascendant far right in Hungary and elsewhere that this is what happens. Mainland Europe probably is not going to take this well, at all.
posted by T.D. Strange at 8:30 PM on June 23, 2016 [7 favorites]


Plenty of Brits still posting here, plenty of us smart, plenty of us stupid, so please don't other us when many of us are having the bottom fall out of our civil lives.
posted by ambrosen at 8:31 PM on June 23, 2016 [34 favorites]


People are just the same dumb everywhere.
posted by Drinky Die at 8:31 PM on June 23, 2016 [14 favorites]


Leave is up almost 700,000 now. The gap is widening.
posted by Pater Aletheias at 8:31 PM on June 23, 2016


Plenty of Brits still posting here, plenty of us smart, plenty of us stupid, so please don't other us when many of us are having the bottom fall out of our civil lives.

Agreed. Apologies for my mouth getting away with me.
posted by Mooski at 8:32 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


This is good for Bitcoin.

This is good for everything that can be exchanged for Pounds. Exchange widgets worth a few pounds yesterday for many pounds tomorrow, then when pounds recover, buy many more widgets.

(Some widgets are made of gold, shaped like bricks, and live in bank vaults.)

I kind of suspect that's all this whole stupid thing this is about. Rich people getting richer. Why else would Cameron have pushed for a referendum when he's in favour of the status quo? Gotta make that Panama money back somehow!
posted by Sys Rq at 8:32 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


This is just insane.
posted by strange chain at 8:32 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


I can only imagine the federal reserve is playing close attention to the reaction in the global markets. The next few days are gonna be unpredictable to say the least.
posted by Annika Cicada at 8:33 PM on June 23, 2016


I have never seen a clearer illustration of the political divide between London and the rest of England. Maybe we should become a Gibralter-esque exclave of Scotland.
posted by tavegyl at 8:33 PM on June 23, 2016 [6 favorites]


Also, my comment about Kent being Leave - bloody Tunbridge Wells is Remain. Tunbridge Wells! Never thought I would be praising them.
posted by paduasoy at 8:33 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


I feel for you, England, and hope this gets better before it gets worse.

However bad this will be for England, it will certainly be worse for Northern Ireland, Wales, and Scotland.
posted by Dysk at 8:34 PM on June 23, 2016 [9 favorites]


Britain showing the world we're still a global power by triggering a global recession all by ourselves.
posted by dng at 8:34 PM on June 23, 2016 [110 favorites]


My back of the envelope (actually a hastily thrown together excel spreadsheet) is saying that to win Remain needs >75% of all remaining votes. Seeing as how almost all the remaining votes are English... welp. It's not done, but it's resting under foil waiting to be carved and plated.

T.D. Strange: Yeap. The EU is going to roll out Wolfgang Schäuble in full enforcer mode. And so the EU will open up another self-inflicted sucking chest wound, as every would be (First two letters of country)-exiteer, starts waving a bloody shirt about how this demonstrates the EU actually views democracy, and we need to get out now before we loose any chance of national self determination.
posted by Grimgrin at 8:37 PM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


Clean sweep for Remain in Scotland.
posted by Flitcraft at 8:39 PM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


People are just the same dumb everywhere.

Which this year is more dumberer than everer.
posted by srboisvert at 8:39 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


Last area of Scotland just checked in - 100% remain.

Game on.
posted by Devonian at 8:39 PM on June 23, 2016 [11 favorites]


BBC called it now
posted by comealongpole at 8:39 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


If leave wins, is there a chance the Queen comes out for a speech and says simply, "No.", hoping that no one calls her on it?

Because jesus christ this cannot be happening.
posted by Slackermagee at 8:40 PM on June 23, 2016 [9 favorites]


However bad this will be for England, it will certainly be worse for Northern Ireland, Wales, and Scotland.

Can you elaborate on that?
posted by cacofonie at 8:40 PM on June 23, 2016


The BBC has called it. The people of the United Kingdom have voted to leave the European Union. Six pints of bitter, and quickly please, the world's about to end.
posted by Drinky Die at 8:41 PM on June 23, 2016 [42 favorites]


The guys on CNN International just reported its been called for "Leave". I guess this qualifies as a "Black Swan" event....................
posted by eagles123 at 8:41 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


Crashing the economy might turn out to be an effective way to keep the immigrants away.
posted by sfenders at 8:41 PM on June 23, 2016 [12 favorites]


I am actually crying now like a big useless baby. what a fucking load of shit

good night everyone
posted by dng at 8:41 PM on June 23, 2016 [9 favorites]


BBC: "The British people have spoken and the answer is -- we're out."

4 points. Yikes.
posted by chortly at 8:41 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


I watched John Oliver, and my reaction to his calling people who wanted to leave both stupid and racist was a realization...

Calling someone racist is just a dog-whistle for "working class / non-salaried"


Yes, of course, this is why the Leave campaign decided to post a giant poster of a throng of people punching a time clock with their sleeves rolled up - that's the real secret dog-whistle motivation, not racism at all. It's an unfortunate coincidence the throng of people were all brown and they cropped out the time clock by accident, but luckily everybody saw through that.
posted by Homeboy Trouble at 8:42 PM on June 23, 2016 [47 favorites]


ITV called it as well.

Fuck all of the things.
posted by kalimac at 8:42 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


My grandmother's maiden name was Buchanan. Scotland, you just made a large extended family of blue-blooded democrat Scottish descendants in Texas proud tonight.
posted by Annika Cicada at 8:42 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


I have never seen a clearer illustration of the political divide between London and the rest of England. Maybe we should become a Gibralter-esque exclave of Scotland.

For extra fun, compare that with a map of where in the UK immigrants actually live.
posted by effbot at 8:42 PM on June 23, 2016 [15 favorites]


Fuck.
posted by tonycpsu at 8:42 PM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


Oh god. Oh goooooooood. No.
posted by Quagkapi at 8:42 PM on June 23, 2016


Well, fuck, this just fucks the fuck out of all the fucks in fuckville. Fuck.
posted by vrakatar at 8:44 PM on June 23, 2016 [7 favorites]


No idea how to process this, so instead I'll descend into possibilities minutia.
Pretty soon after voting to stay in the UK, Scotland votes to remain in the EU as well, but appears to be outvoted overall.
Does Scotland have the opportunity to re-visit the independence vote and stay within the EU?
posted by meinvt at 8:44 PM on June 23, 2016 [4 favorites]


I am so, so sorry.
posted by Mooski at 8:44 PM on June 23, 2016


Unbelievable.
posted by theodolite at 8:45 PM on June 23, 2016


Does Scotland have the opportunity to re-visit the independence vote and stay within the EU?

Yes. Nicola Sturgeon has obviously not set a timeframe, but there is absolutely a chance for another referendum.
posted by kalimac at 8:45 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Can you elaborate on that?

EU money disproportionately flows to those countries over England, UK influence is heavily centralised in London and mostly considers the needs of the South East of England, and Northern Ireland has that whole open land border with an EU nation thing to deal with and all.

But mostly, I was reacting angrily to someone expressing sympathy for England over an issue that affects the entire UK. The terms are not interchangeable.
posted by Dysk at 8:45 PM on June 23, 2016 [5 favorites]


BBC political editor: "We're calling it - We're out"
posted by thefoxgod at 8:45 PM on June 23, 2016


Birmingham - leave.

Well, fuck.
posted by Artw at 8:46 PM on June 23, 2016


Okay, now is the time to panic.
posted by Apocryphon at 8:46 PM on June 23, 2016


disbelief.
posted by cacofonie at 8:46 PM on June 23, 2016


This really seems like a fake headline from Children of Men
posted by cacofonie at 8:48 PM on June 23, 2016 [4 favorites]


This is...wow.
posted by lazaruslong at 8:48 PM on June 23, 2016


There's no way Scotland will be allowed a vote to leave the UK. They need the oil now more than ever.
posted by dilaudid at 8:48 PM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


The Pound is down to 1.34 and the Euro is down to $1.09. I wouldn't be shocked tomorrow if the Euro is at parity and the Pound is under $1.25.
posted by chimaera at 8:49 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Surprised and worried.
posted by Miko at 8:49 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


This is a far-right coup.

And it worked.
posted by Quagkapi at 8:49 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


:(
posted by crossoverman at 8:49 PM on June 23, 2016


The PM and then George Osborne have to get a speech off before 8am when the LSE opens. FTSE 100 futures right now show the market expects to open down 8.5%. What the hell do they even say to that?
posted by zachlipton at 8:50 PM on June 23, 2016


Jesus Christ.
posted by mynameisluka at 8:50 PM on June 23, 2016


Hell yeah UK, let's abandon 40 years of progress and cooperation, cuz fuck yeah nationalism!

This is a world destruction your life ain't nothing.
posted by vrakatar at 8:50 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Most of Wales voting leave is currently depressing me the most. There are a lot of counties in Wales that get special EU funding for economic hardship that will be badly affected in the long run by this. I don't live there any more but it still saddens me immensely.
posted by jzed at 8:50 PM on June 23, 2016 [8 favorites]


At least we can look forward to Farage's announcement of a super-rare unreconcession.
posted by figurant at 8:52 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


The Nikkei is down 8%, Hang Seng 5%.

I admit I dumped everything I owned before the vote. Not out of prescience but out of pessimism. Of course with my history the headline here tomorrow will be "DOW SURGES 9% ON BREXIT RESULT".
posted by Justinian at 8:52 PM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


Fuck.
posted by Akhu at 8:52 PM on June 23, 2016




I could swear I posted something here... but it must have been Facebook....

things like the Brexit are what happen where the Powers that Be have used up all their trust and goodwill, and thus can no longer convince the people that they know what's best.

I think that in the long run, this will be good for all involved... lessons will be learned.
posted by MikeWarot at 8:53 PM on June 23, 2016 [4 favorites]


Does Scotland have the opportunity to re-visit the independence vote and stay within the EU?

Linking to Wikipedia here, but there was debate at the last referendum as to whether the Scottish Parliament had the power to call a referendum. In the end, the UK Parliament agreed that they could. So it seems uncertain as to whether Scotland could unilaterally decide to have another one.
posted by Pink Frost at 8:54 PM on June 23, 2016


I doubt either the UK or the EU will exist in five years' time, at least in a recognizable form to today.
posted by Emma May Smith at 8:55 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]




mark your calendars: 23/6/2016. not 9/11/01, not as spectacular, but the consequences will be dire.

just played out in less obvious, but equally causal chains.

certainly the environment - and workers rights - and human rights - are going to be more fucked - divide and conquer. if EU regulations have no teeth, the race to the bottom for profit seeking in the least regulated country will be all the more stronger and more vicious.

certainly, distrust of "the other" will increase

certainly, walls will go up

certainly, right-wing parties across Europe will be emboldened

i’m serious when I say this. the chances of real, armed, european conflict just got higher.

not 5 years from now, but 15 or 20.

when resource shortages hit, or more serious migration crises, or some environmental stress....... and there's no interdependence hardwired between states, we will choose to fight.

mark your calendars, students of history.
posted by lalochezia at 8:55 PM on June 23, 2016 [34 favorites]


I think that in the long run, this will be good for all involved... lessons will be learned.

It sure as fuck won't be for those of us getting thrown under the bus here. But keep pretending this is some abstract issue about principles, and not a real human tragedy with actual people's lives at stake.
posted by Dysk at 8:55 PM on June 23, 2016 [84 favorites]


good for all involved*

*Immigrants, British expats in EU, Northern Ireland, Gibraltar, people whose jobs rely on trade in the Common Market, academics, mixed-citizenship couples, recipients of EU aid not included in "all"
posted by dhens at 8:56 PM on June 23, 2016 [53 favorites]


World War II, but with the sides reversed.
posted by Apocryphon at 8:56 PM on June 23, 2016


Bloomberg has the Pound down to 1.3326 USD (-10.43%)

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GBPUSD:CUR
posted by snuffleupagus at 8:57 PM on June 23, 2016


At least we can look forward to Farage's announcement of a super-rare unreconcession.

Liam Fox just pointed out that the UKIP has now served it's purpose; this is why they started the party, so the right thing for Farage would be to disband it (and direct his voters to the conservatives instead, I assume). I'm not going to hold my breath.
posted by effbot at 8:57 PM on June 23, 2016


Feel likes the lights are going out again in Europe. :(

Hugs from across the pond to all my UK and Continent friends and family.
posted by longdaysjourney at 8:57 PM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


I think that in the long run, this will be good for all involved... lessons will be learned.

Except for, y'know, immigrants. Most of whom didn't need a(nother) "lesson" in xenophobia.
posted by Krom Tatman at 8:58 PM on June 23, 2016 [18 favorites]


>> good for all involved*

> *Immigrants, British expats in EU, Northern Ireland, Gibraltar, people whose jobs rely on trade in the Common Market, academics, mixed-citizenship couples, recipients of EU aid not included in "all"


Yeah, the mixed-citizenship academic couples I know in the UK are suddenly in an untenable position.

WTF, Britain.
posted by RedOrGreen at 9:00 PM on June 23, 2016 [7 favorites]


I reserve this mean glare for the Scots who voted no on the IndyRef: ಠ_ಠ

Since Brexit is a closed deal, I'm taking bets on whether the Tories/UKIP even allow the Scots to have a second one. They got too close last time.
posted by chimaera at 9:00 PM on June 23, 2016


Except for, y'know, immigrants.

Some of those immigrants in the UK who are also valued Mefites who deserve a better situation than this.
posted by Annika Cicada at 9:00 PM on June 23, 2016 [5 favorites]


Liam Fox just pointed out that the UKIP has now served it's purpose; this is why they started the party, so the right thing for Farage would be to disband it (and direct his voters to the conservatives instead, I assume).

UKIP doesn't win until Parliament passes a bill to leave the EU and all negotiations are completed.
posted by Chocolate Pickle at 9:02 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Corbyn, for all I agree with his policies, hasn't led the Labour party even slightly, and I'm sad and disillusioned.

I suppose where I'm seeing a silver lining in this mess is that perhaps the neoliberal majority of the Labour party and UK establishment generally need to have the living shit scared out of them and be dealt a major, major blow before they'll take seriously left-ish policies that could actually address contemporary economic problems. And perhaps the ECB will be more willing to consider Eurobonds and debt forgiveness, etc. when at least one major EU member has shut itself out over much less egregious disagreements than Greece and Spain can raise (EU != Eurozone yes I know, but still).

Time shall tell.
posted by 3urypteris at 9:02 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


Holy .... :/
posted by R343L at 9:06 PM on June 23, 2016


Wow. 2016. Man, I hope this doesn't presage a trump landslide.
posted by SecretAgentSockpuppet at 9:06 PM on June 23, 2016 [12 favorites]


I'm so, so sorry, Britain. And I am really, really afraid of what this mean for the global economy in the near term, and global peace in the long term.

To those saying Britain will still have NATO and the U.S., that won't be true if America follows Britain's lead and elects Trump and the "America First" crowd. He has made it clear he wouldn't hesitate to dissolve any long-standing alliances. And if Britain leaving the EU triggers yet another global recession, the odds of a Trump America just got a lot higher.
posted by biogeo at 9:07 PM on June 23, 2016 [9 favorites]


Since Brexit is a closed deal, I'm taking bets on whether the Tories/UKIP even allow the Scots to have a second one. They got too close last time.

This time it won't be in their gift to "allow" it. The Scottish Government can simply hold a "non-binding" referendum like this one, and stare down any UK government that dares to reject the implications of a resounding Yes vote.

Scotland could well be out of the UK before the next General Election.
posted by rory at 9:07 PM on June 23, 2016 [9 favorites]


A hell of a lot of people were sick of being told how to vote. Wow.
posted by Coda Tronca at 9:08 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


Omg. I'm in shock. I feel so much for my Scottish relatives.
posted by biggreenplant at 9:08 PM on June 23, 2016




Gah, so very shocked and sorry! This is horrible - poor you guys, so sorry!
posted by madamjujujive at 9:10 PM on June 23, 2016


@MarcusReports: Japan has halted trading #Brexit

Damn. I have a feeling we are going to see more market interventions before the day over. This is...ghastly.
posted by Annika Cicada at 9:12 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


@ITVAllegra
Am being told that Cameron and Osborne are finished. There will be a "dignified exit" say senior Tories. "Not immediate".
posted by lalochezia at 9:13 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Holy fuck. I really, really thought that Remain would pull through.

My UK friends are reporting that they're stunned, and shamed. Hugs and good wishes going out to anyone feeling likewise.
posted by TwoStride at 9:13 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


One of the major currencies is down 10% in a couple of hours, of course they're going to halt trading and regroup.

Wow, you guys really showed those immigrants a thing or two, didn't you? Remember when the worst thing that could happen is you'd get knocked out in the first round of the World Cup? Those were the days.
posted by fifteen schnitzengruben is my limit at 9:14 PM on June 23, 2016 [8 favorites]


Jesus christ, the Nikkei dropped 7.5%.
posted by biogeo at 9:14 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


2016.

A decade and a half of slow simmering is reaching a boil.
posted by flippant at 9:14 PM on June 23, 2016 [9 favorites]


The age divide on this vote is pretty stunning. There's going to be a lot of resentment toward older Brits for years to come over this.
posted by zachlipton at 9:14 PM on June 23, 2016 [24 favorites]


Well. Went to bed expecting Remain to win. This is very surprising.

Interesting times.
posted by veedubya at 9:15 PM on June 23, 2016


> I have a feeling we are going to see more market interventions before the day over. This is...ghastly.

Agreed. The markets had priced in "Remain" and would have been jittery if the vote had been too narrow for comfort. But an outright "Leave" outcome - those lemmings are going to be diving off the cliff in droves when the market opens. Ghastly is right.
posted by RedOrGreen at 9:15 PM on June 23, 2016


well this is some shit, is what this is.
posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 9:15 PM on June 23, 2016 [10 favorites]


The Nikkei is trading again -- they did have a short lunch break, so perhaps that was what was being referred to...?
posted by armage at 9:16 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


So disheartening and scary. The swing to the Right in so many countries at once is ominous.
posted by futz at 9:16 PM on June 23, 2016 [4 favorites]




The age divide on this vote is pretty stunning. There's going to be a lot of resentment toward older Brits for years to come over this.


im feeling pretty logans runny right now
posted by lalochezia at 9:16 PM on June 23, 2016 [17 favorites]


@lalochezia, I can't do it, I'm sorry. I want to give you a favorite, your hitting all of the right notes for me - great prose, a bold prophecy, a sentiment I can't disagree with...

But I can't do it, I'm fighting back tears here, trying to reason through the consequences of what we've just done, consequences for real flesh and blood people not just integers in some simulation, and I can't. I can't believe we're going down this road.

I refuse to.

I don't know what has just happened, to the UK, or to the world, but I see some small rays of light here.

A few weeks ago I had not even heard of the courageous hero MP Jo Cox, and now shes an honest to GD martyr for me. I will never forget the sacrifice she made for freedom.

I have to believe we can still fix this, I have to believe other people feel the same way, and there are enough of us, in America, in Europe, in the Middle East, in the UK, in China, in Africa, and all over the whole world, there are enough of us to keep pushing things forward.

I have to believe love is stronger than hate, and when all is said and done we will remember tonight, not as if it was a turning point towards a darker future, but as if it was a call to action, the dawning of a new age.

I will not let hope die tonight, I will not let this vote be a funeral pyre for our future.

There is an election coming up in my home country, and to be honest I was a bit blase about the whole thing. One thing which did die tonight is my cynicism. I am about to fall into line so hard. Yea, maybe I can't have exactly what I want, but I'm not going to let the dark forces of the night knock my country from the path of progress, even if it is incremental.

Maybe now we are a bit beaten down, but I'm confident if we help each other up we can stand together, and I'm sure then we will be even stronger for having endured.

Love is stronger than hate, if we keep going we will make it through the long night.
posted by getting_back_on_track at 9:17 PM on June 23, 2016 [53 favorites]


London exchange opens in a little under 3 hours, Nikkei is down 7-8% right now and I expect LSE will be brutal.

Of course, there's still a question of where things will stabilize in a week or two, but right now the financial markets are freaking out.
posted by thefoxgod at 9:18 PM on June 23, 2016


No, it was an automatic 10 minute break in trading triggered by the precipitous drop. It seems to have helped, it's rebounding a bit now.
posted by biogeo at 9:18 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Having been raised by a racist/sexist white male a half-century ago, I have learned two things: NEVER underestimate the power of 'my people' when we believe we're losing Privilege, and to paraphrase Pogo, "We are everyone's worst enemy, including our own".
posted by oneswellfoop at 9:18 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


Yeah the Nikkei was a planned break. WHEW.
posted by Annika Cicada at 9:19 PM on June 23, 2016


Current measure. More than 1.1 million Brits voted to leave than to stay. Let that sink in.
posted by lalochezia at 9:21 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


I'm pulling my money out of Cadbury Flake and buying guns and butter. Or butter guns, so I can shoot butter into things, mainly food, British food I hope, especially shepherd's pie and jelly babies.
posted by vrakatar at 9:22 PM on June 23, 2016 [5 favorites]


Went to sleep when it was looking ok, just woke back up beyond devastated. This as a result of one manifesto promise Cameron saw fit to hold up. Voluntary, arbitrary self sabotage on a massive scale. Terrified.
posted by runincircles at 9:22 PM on June 23, 2016 [4 favorites]


Trading briefly halted for Nikkei futures as circuit breaker kicks in. So it was technically a futures market.
posted by biogeo at 9:22 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


The most eponymous comment possibly ever on Mefi

Thank you. I needed this. Thank you.
posted by Annika Cicada at 9:22 PM on June 23, 2016 [8 favorites]


I think that in the long run, this will be good for all involved... lessons will be learned.

"The long run", when it comes to stuff like this, probably means "when I'm dead" for most people. And lessons learned are easy to unlearn. I am pessimistic.
posted by haapsane at 9:24 PM on June 23, 2016 [10 favorites]


@Simon_Nixon
ITV now reporting that Sinn Fein calling for new vote on united Ireland. Brexiters were adamant that this wouldn't happen.

@MarcMallett_UTV
BREAKING: Sinn Fein says "British government has forfeited any mandate to represent economic or political interests of people in N Ireland"
posted by triggerfinger at 9:24 PM on June 23, 2016 [48 favorites]


Better Together, they said. EU membership at risk if you vote out they said.

My arse. Bye bye United Kingdom. If you weren't doomed before, you are now.

The one tiny comfort is Cameron is toast. Offset by the likelihood of seeing a lot more of Fucking Farage.
posted by Happy Dave at 9:25 PM on June 23, 2016 [6 favorites]


phew, the world's stock markets are safe! Would hate democracy to interfere with capitalism and trade!

It's not just about a bunch of traders making money. The Pound now buys 11% less dollar-denominated stuff, which is a problem for basically anybody who gets paid in GBP and wants to buy things like fuel or food. And as the markets open, a lot of people will notice their retirement accounts are noticeably lighter. The financial markets matter here.
posted by zachlipton at 9:25 PM on June 23, 2016 [34 favorites]


NYT
Despite opinion polls ahead of the referendum on Thursday that showed either side in a position to win, the outcome nonetheless stunned much of Britain, Europe and the trans-Atlantic alliance, highlighting the power of anti-elite, populist and nationalist sentiment at a time of economic and cultural dislocation.
posted by Miko at 9:26 PM on June 23, 2016


phew, the world's stock markets are safe!

I'm sensing the snark, I guess here is where I should qualify that from where I sit I see stock market dislocations causing recessions that end up hurting poor, marginalized and oppressed people way way way more than the asset classes. So yeah, I don't want the stock markets to take a hit tomorrow because I don't want people to suffer more than they already do.
posted by Annika Cicada at 9:26 PM on June 23, 2016 [35 favorites]


Well, fuck.
posted by Nice Guy Mike at 9:27 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


> "The long run", when it comes to stuff like this, probably means "when I'm dead" for most people.

NYT commenting on the huge difference in support for Remain between older and younger Britons:

Older voters are more likely to be retired and on a pension or other fixed income. That could mean they feel insulated from any short-term economic downturns caused by a Brexit — and that they don’t expect to share in future economic gains from staying. Younger voters have more to gain and lose from the economy’s performance — and from being able to freely work across Europe.
posted by RedOrGreen at 9:27 PM on June 23, 2016 [6 favorites]


Older voters are going to find their fixed income is going to kill them if a bout of inflation degrades their pension’s spending power.
posted by pharm at 9:29 PM on June 23, 2016 [18 favorites]


I am reminded of a cartoon on a historian's blog. The text said something along the line of:

Those who do not study history are doomed to repeat it.

Those who study history are doomed to experiencing it's repitition driven by their fellows who don't study it.
posted by bukvich at 9:30 PM on June 23, 2016 [73 favorites]


bukvich, I was about to make that same joke. Or "joke".
posted by biogeo at 9:31 PM on June 23, 2016


I will never forget the sacrifice she made for freedom.

I understand your sentiment but I'm going to beg you to reframe. She didn't sign up for a tour in a war zone. She was not a soldier. She was serving her community in quite an ordinary way and did not - should not in any way - expect that she was offering her life. She did not "make" a sacrifice: her life was stolen from her.
posted by rtha at 9:32 PM on June 23, 2016 [99 favorites]


@AFP
#BREAKING: Scotland 'sees its future as part of the EU': First Minister
posted by triggerfinger at 9:32 PM on June 23, 2016 [13 favorites]


This is surreal.
posted by triggerfinger at 9:32 PM on June 23, 2016 [4 favorites]


Wow, guess those depressing Bond movies with Daniel Craig were actually just ahead of their time.
posted by FJT at 9:32 PM on June 23, 2016


I guess if Wales stays they can still call it the UK
posted by theodolite at 9:33 PM on June 23, 2016 [9 favorites]


I see stock market dislocations causing recessions that end up hurting poor, marginalized and oppressed people way way way more than the asset classes.

Fair enough, but it was worship of financial markets that got us into this mess in the first place.
posted by Coda Tronca at 9:33 PM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


Brexiters were adamant that this wouldn't happen.

I imagine we'll be seeing a lot of things happen that the Brexiters claimed wouldn't. Not that it'll stop them, of course.
posted by zombieflanders at 9:35 PM on June 23, 2016 [17 favorites]


What absolutely appalling news to wake up to. My stomach is sinking as fast as the pound. All I can think is idiots.
posted by Sonny Jim at 9:36 PM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


@BNONews
BREAKING: Dutch Party for Freedom leader Geert Wilders calls for Dutch EU referendum after Brexit

hahaha holy shit make it stop
posted by triggerfinger at 9:36 PM on June 23, 2016 [12 favorites]


I am patiently waiting for a nice simple explanation of how the Electoral College means this type of thing can't happen in the United States.
posted by yhbc at 9:37 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


I guess if Wales stays they can still call it the UK

They just need to let the Isle of Man and the Channel Islands (which are neither part of the UK nor of the EU) in as home nations to make up for Scotland and Norn Iron.
posted by dhens at 9:38 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Fair enough

It's actually not fair at all and the UK running for the Brexit is absolutely overprivileged and gross and doing further harm on top of the ones that the global markets are already creating. I don't see a polemic here. It's all the same cloth to me.
posted by Annika Cicada at 9:39 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


yhbc, it's not the Electoral College. It's that the last time it was tried, we fought a war over it.
posted by biogeo at 9:39 PM on June 23, 2016 [6 favorites]


BREAKING: Dutch Party for Freedom leader Geert Wilders calls for Dutch EU referendum after Brexit


Hoofbeats, faint, of unknown velocity, in the distance. I hear them. They are getting louder.
posted by lalochezia at 9:39 PM on June 23, 2016 [4 favorites]


Shite. Looks like I might have to play my Northern Irish dual citizenship card: It has been estimated that as many as six million Britons can claim an Irish-born grandparent
posted by jamespake at 9:39 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


But Parliament can still ignore this, right? Like when Staten Island voted to secede and then nothing happened?
posted by corb at 9:39 PM on June 23, 2016


We're fucked. We're totally fucked.

Guardian has the results graphed by different council demographics here.

Areas with more higher education voted Remain.
Areas with more people when no qualifications voted Leave.
Higher earning areas voted Remain.
Areas with more ABC1 residents voted Remain.
Younger areas voted Remain, older ones voted Leave.
Areas with residents born overseas voted Remain.

We're fucked.
posted by MattWPBS at 9:39 PM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


YHBC, this kind of thing can't happen in the US but the Electoral College is not the reason why. The reason is the precedent established by Abraham Lincoln in 1861. Any attempt in future at secession will be met with military force and suppressed ruthlessly.

And everyone knows it, so no one will try.
posted by Chocolate Pickle at 9:39 PM on June 23, 2016 [12 favorites]


I can only hope that Cameron, seeing all this doomsday shit go down, will get cold feet on what is technically a non-binding resolution.
posted by savetheclocktower at 9:39 PM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


Fair enough, but it was worship of financial markets that got us into this mess in the first place.

No it wasn't. It was a bunch of people voting in a referendum. It was a failure of government, a failure of social programs, and a failure of anyone to effectively challenge the growing xenophobia in British politics.
posted by Dysk at 9:41 PM on June 23, 2016 [46 favorites]


We're fucked. We're totally fucked.

More fucked than the Greeks were by the EU?
posted by Coda Tronca at 9:41 PM on June 23, 2016 [4 favorites]


Corb: Yes, Parliament could choose to ignore the referendum. I don’t believe that will happen however, barring some kind of national emergency level of economic collapse.
posted by pharm at 9:41 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


But Parliament can still ignore this, right?

They can, but I don't think they'd dare to.
posted by chimaera at 9:41 PM on June 23, 2016


corb: But Parliament can still ignore this, right? Like when Staten Island voted to secede and then nothing happened?

Doesn't need Parliamentary approval. Government goes to EU, invokes Article 50 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union, and then there's a two-year countdown until they leave.

But no-one really knows what's going to happen, which is terrifying. See the Guardian for eight questions Cameron must answer - most of which you would have wanted to know before the vote, not after.
posted by Pink Frost at 9:42 PM on June 23, 2016 [8 favorites]


Better Together, they said. EU membership at risk if you vote out they said.

And US$100+ oil will pay for everything, the other lot said. That was then, and this is the nightmare.

If IndyRef2 succeeds, it's only going to be with the help of No+Remain voters who see it as one last chance to stay in Europe. Meanwhile, some polls yesterday suggested that a substantial minority of SNP voters were Leave. Selling IndyRef2 is going to be a whole different kettle of fish from IndyRef1.
posted by rory at 9:42 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


"The lamps are going out all over Europe, we shall not see them lit again in our life-time." Edward Grey, 1914. (+102 years?)
posted by dhens at 9:42 PM on June 23, 2016 [5 favorites]


Remember Weimar
posted by Apocryphon at 9:42 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


It was worship of financial markets that got us into this mess in the first place.

Eh, it's the separation of financial markets from the fundamental trade goods that they're meant to improve availability of that caused it. And more importantly the fact that a tiny minority of people in the banking sector seem to understand the products they're using.
posted by ambrosen at 9:43 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


I can only hope that Cameron, seeing all this doomsday shit go down, will get cold feet on what is technically a non-binding resolution.

Ignoring the referendum might be a worse idea than leaving the EU in the first place, so I don't think Cameron would do that. Unless for some reason he has a political death wish.
posted by ymgve at 9:43 PM on June 23, 2016


It's weird how badly markets seem to price uncertainty in these things. All the polls gave Leave nearly a 50% chance. The markets were pretty stable going into this -- did they really expect markets to rise 10% in the event of a Remain win? It seems like they took the slight probability of a Remain win as a near-certainty.

Similarly, we're way underpricing the possibility of a Trump win. Even if you think it's just 30%, that's a 30% chance of global catatrophe. A proper market would be down a thousand points the moment it looked like Trump even had a decent chance.
posted by chortly at 9:43 PM on June 23, 2016 [11 favorites]


MattWPS: It’s the revenge of the lumpen-proletariat.
posted by pharm at 9:43 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Yeah. Parliament has to get real and refuse to ratify this. Just because a majority of English and NI voters have proudly announced that they're thick, doesn't mean we have to kill the EU, kill the union, destroy the pound, and commit the nation to complete and utter fucking penury.
posted by Sonny Jim at 9:43 PM on June 23, 2016 [9 favorites]


some kind of national emergency level of economic collapse.

unfolding now?
posted by vrakatar at 9:44 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


We're fucked. We're totally fucked.

More fucked than the Greeks were by the EU?


More fucked than WE would be within the EU. This is not Greece, and that comparison is a complete non-sequitur.
posted by Dysk at 9:44 PM on June 23, 2016 [23 favorites]


More fucked than the Greeks were by the EU?

We've done this to ourselves.
posted by MattWPBS at 9:46 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Just because a majority of English and NI voters have proudly announced that they're thick, doesn't mean we have to kill the EU

Northern Ireland voted majority in favour of remain. England and Wales voted majority leave.
posted by Dysk at 9:47 PM on June 23, 2016


Northern Ireland went Remain, I think, although not by as wide a margin as Scotland did. A majority of English and Welsh voters went for Leave.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 9:47 PM on June 23, 2016


Ignoring the referendum might be a worse idea than leaving the EU in the first place, so I don't think Cameron would do that. Unless for some reason he has a political death wish.

I think he's doomed either way.
posted by Apocryphon at 9:47 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Ignoring the referendum might be a worse idea than leaving the EU in the first place, so I don't think Cameron would do that. Unless for some reason he has a political death wish.

I can only hope Cameron has a political death wish. Yes, that's how slim my hopes are right now.

Though he's not going to have much of a political future either way at this point.
posted by savetheclocktower at 9:47 PM on June 23, 2016


Pretty sure if the US allowed stay/leave votes on secession, there's 5-10 States at risk for a leave majority.
posted by meehawl at 9:48 PM on June 23, 2016 [7 favorites]


I am patiently waiting for a nice simple explanation of how the Electoral College means this type of thing can't happen in the United States.

We don't have direct referendums at the Federal level.

In the US the vote to leave an international treaty organization or free trade league wouldn't be made by citizens at all, it would be made in Congress.
posted by snuffleupagus at 9:48 PM on June 23, 2016 [11 favorites]


To me, a bystander, the most surreal part of all this is the Leave people's adamant declarations that they represent the oppressed working-class interests against the middle-class Remain elites, despite the polls showing that younger voters overwhelmingly favor Remain.

Apparently 18-24 year olds are the wealthiest demo in England, and had dominated UK politics from atop their towers of money up until this referendum.
posted by fatehunter at 9:49 PM on June 23, 2016 [36 favorites]


Apologies to Northern Ireland there. (Thanks, Dysk.) It's early and I'm visibly upset ...
posted by Sonny Jim at 9:50 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


I'd have thought it pretty obvious that what the EU did to the people of Greece proved that it is not an organisation that has the material welfare of ordinary Europeans as a concern. I know people are shocked by all this, but it is a badass neoliberal trade organisation, as others have pointed out above.
posted by Coda Tronca at 9:51 PM on June 23, 2016 [7 favorites]


As a Canadian, I'm pretty sure this voids our arrangement with the Queen. I asked around, and it sounds like our head of state automatically switches to the nearest geographical monarch, which appears to be King Philippe of Belgium.
posted by oulipian at 9:52 PM on June 23, 2016 [11 favorites]




I'd have thought it pretty obvious that what the EU did to the people of Greece proved that it is not an organisation that has the material welfare of ordinary Europeans as a concern. I know people are shocked by all this, but it is a badass neoliberal trade organisation, as others have pointed out above.

...and every government in recent UK history makes it look like Engels, Marx and Che Guevara combined, by comparison.
posted by Dysk at 9:53 PM on June 23, 2016 [13 favorites]


Gosh, this is just terrible. I feel for all Britons in the wake of this... this madness.

The only condolence I can offer is this link to a BuzzFeed list of 40 cute animal gifs, which is not much but was a bit of a pleasant distraction to me just now.
posted by Homeboy Trouble at 9:53 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


How does Europe go forward with the major financial center of the region now out of the union? Do Brexitors really plan on mass deportations (on both sides of the coin)? What is the cost of managing such a major transition within the small space of two years? How did Leave voters never consider any of this a possibility?
posted by codacorolla at 9:53 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


We're fucked.

Don't worry, Boris has promised to apologize at some point in the future, if this turns out to have been a bad idea.

Pretty sure if the US allowed stay/leave votes on secession, there's 5-10 States at risk for a leave majority.

#texit is already a thing on Twitter.
posted by effbot at 9:54 PM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


So does Cameron resign/get ousted over this?
posted by TwoStride at 9:55 PM on June 23, 2016


Pretty sure if the US allowed stay/leave votes on secession, there's 5-10 States at risk for a leave majority.

Texit.
posted by Pater Aletheias at 9:55 PM on June 23, 2016 [7 favorites]


On R4 just now, UKIP representative vowing to never STFU or go away.

Die in a horrible fire, UKIP.

R4: "Vote Leave has the political capital to make demands of David Cameron."
posted by Quagkapi at 9:55 PM on June 23, 2016


I think the EU did that as a result of pressures made by the wealthy EU nations that demanded austerity measures.

What happened to Greece was not inflicted by some EU separate from the UK, and I I have little love for the EU as a result of the shit they pulled on Greece.

But that said the answer to that horrible chapter in history was not to light a trash fire that could potentially destabilize the global economy because immigrants in Calais.
posted by Annika Cicada at 9:55 PM on June 23, 2016 [7 favorites]


Yes, but probably not right away.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 9:55 PM on June 23, 2016


I'd have thought it pretty obvious that what the EU did to the people of Greece proved that it is not an organisation that has the material welfare of ordinary Europeans as a concern. I know people are shocked by all this, but it is a badass neoliberal trade organisation, as others have pointed out above.

I'm not saying it is, so stop straw manning. What we've just fucking done is hand an unholy amount of power to the right wing of a party who are already worse than anything about the EU by an order of magnitude. That's the people who are going to rewrite our fucking rights.
posted by MattWPBS at 9:56 PM on June 23, 2016 [26 favorites]


Well. This is a moment like the Kingdom of Poland legislating itself out of existence in the 18th century. Republics are a bundle of choices.

The very (faint) silver lining: Greece and Spain can expect more leniency from an EU desperate to avert secession fever, Brussels might actually heed this shot against the bows and implement more meaningful transparency and democracy in the MEP system.... uh, what else?

Oh yeah, America's economy keeps going strong as the Euro-zone falters. Pretty much the only thing keeping the dollar strong is the way that everybody else keeps imploding: China last year, Europe this year.

No silver lining for Brits though. Nothing but dark clouds for you lot. Sorry.
posted by LeRoienJaune at 9:57 PM on June 23, 2016 [7 favorites]


I mean, yes Cameron gets booted, but probably not today.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 9:57 PM on June 23, 2016


codacorolla - Paris and Frankfurt have some banks that are ready to roll out the red carpet.
posted by Wretch729 at 9:58 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


As a Canadian, I'm pretty sure this voids our arrangement with the Queen. I asked around, and it sounds like our head of state automatically switches to the nearest geographical monarch, which appears to be King Philippe of Belgium.

Just skipping Beyonce like that, huh?
posted by DynamiteToast at 9:58 PM on June 23, 2016 [72 favorites]


I saw a billboard yesterday in Florida or Georgia that read #cecede and a web address. Chilling...
posted by Windopaene at 9:58 PM on June 23, 2016


"Scotland will seek independence now. Cameron's legacy will be breaking up two unions. Neither needed to happen." -- @jk_rowling
posted by zachlipton at 9:59 PM on June 23, 2016 [29 favorites]


If the EU eases up on Greece and Spain (and Italy?) and makes the right noises, and the Pound and FTSE stay depressed enough in the short term, then maybe that will make Indy2 happen and we can step back from the brink.
posted by snuffleupagus at 9:59 PM on June 23, 2016


I feel bad for my family in Wales. Nobody deserves to suffer economic terrorism at the hands of cowardly, racist English.
posted by a lungful of dragon at 9:59 PM on June 23, 2016


How does Europe go forward with the major financial center of the region now out of the union?

Ordinary Brits wanted the bankers gone.
posted by Coda Tronca at 10:00 PM on June 23, 2016


A majority of Welsh voters voted to leave.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 10:00 PM on June 23, 2016 [12 favorites]


I still say that this won't stand. I will simply be *shocked* if the ultra-wealthy let the "little people" have any hint of self-determination. Wealthy elites simply refuse to give up power to the "unwashed masses."

I'm sorry to sound defeatist, but I would say I'm more of a realist. Money=Power. Always has, and always will.

It will be interesting to see how the elites twist their manipulation of the results of this into something that seemingly complies with the "leave" vote. It ain't gonna happen.
posted by InsertNiftyNameHere at 10:01 PM on June 23, 2016 [8 favorites]


I feel bad for my family in Wales. Nobody deserves to suffer economic terrorism at the hands of cowardly, racist English.

I hear you, but Wales also voted to leave.
posted by Pater Aletheias at 10:01 PM on June 23, 2016 [4 favorites]


Leave has officially crossed the 50% threshold.

.
posted by oulipian at 10:03 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


One of the more revealing moments of the Brexit campaign came when Michael Gove, a Conservative Outer once close to Prime Minister David Cameron, said: “People in this country have had enough of experts.” There it is: a celebration of ignorance that writes the opening line of the populists’ playbook. How long before Mr Gove, a former education secretary, is piling books on to bonfires?
Philip Stephens, Perils of a populist paean to ignorance, Financial Times (23 June 2016).
posted by Sonny Jim at 10:03 PM on June 23, 2016 [19 favorites]


Okay yeah, as amusing as it would be to see UK identity in-fighting revert to Celts (Britons) against Anglo-Saxons (British?) in some anachronistic nonexistent family feud, this referendum cut into all sides. To label all of this the fault of England or Wales is playing into the hands of the tribalists.
posted by Apocryphon at 10:04 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


I was surprised that yr hen wlad is so full of Little Englanders.
posted by Harvey Kilobit at 10:04 PM on June 23, 2016


I feel bad for my family in Wales. Nobody deserves to suffer economic terrorism at the hands of cowardly, racist English.

Very classy.
posted by veedubya at 10:05 PM on June 23, 2016 [7 favorites]


I don't see why everyone is so emotional about this? It's not like the Island is sailing away to the South Atlantic or something.... there's a ton of money they won't be sending to the EU, there will be one less layer of government on top of everything... things go back to the way it was before the EU, people need passports to travel, imports get taxed, and local businesses have a bit of protection from offshoring/outsourcing of jobs to places with lower standards of living.

From far away here in Indiana, as working person, it seems to be a good thing to get out of the EU if you're not salaried or rich.

I'm willing to be convinced otherwise.
posted by MikeWarot at 10:06 PM on June 23, 2016 [7 favorites]


I just woke up and heard the news.

FFS.

As a British expat living and working in the EU, I now have months of stress and uncertainty to deal with. And potentially a total upheaval of my entire family and professional life.

Horrible, horrible stupid fucking fuck.

Fuck.
posted by ZipRibbons at 10:06 PM on June 23, 2016 [32 favorites]


Ordinary Brits wanted the bankers gone

I've never heard an "ordinary Brit" saying this. I've heard concern over immigration, and that's pretty much it.
posted by howfar at 10:07 PM on June 23, 2016 [13 favorites]


I'm willing to be convinced otherwise.

How'd you like your money to be worth 10% less tomorrow?

That number will probably grow.
posted by snuffleupagus at 10:08 PM on June 23, 2016 [18 favorites]


This isn't about nationality; this is about class, an awful state school system, a demagogic tabloid media owned by right-wing crooks and loons, and a sense of gleeful nihilism bred by three decades of people feeling that their lives don't matter because of where they were born. That state of affairs cuts across national boundaries within the UK, unfortunately.
posted by Sonny Jim at 10:08 PM on June 23, 2016 [12 favorites]




I'm willing to be convinced otherwise.
posted by MikeWarot at 10:06 PM on June 23 [+] [!]


Here's what we've just thrown away


(I linked to this at the top of the thread)
posted by lalochezia at 10:09 PM on June 23, 2016 [4 favorites]


Well I went to sleep at 12 pretty cheerfully.

Fuck, fuck, fuck.

At least there's Cameron's resignation to look forward to now.
posted by brilliantmistake at 10:09 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


I don't see why everyone is so emotional about this?

Some of us are EU citizens living in the UK, or UK citizens living in the EU. This has the potential to majorly impact our lives. Others are our friends, partners, coworkers. And still more people are recognising that the EU is less bad for the unprivileged than any UK government in the last many decades, and certainly than the one we actually have now.

But I'm sure it just looks different in Indiana.
posted by Dysk at 10:10 PM on June 23, 2016 [92 favorites]


The contrast between MikeWarot's comment and that of ZipRibbons directly beneath it is sadly instructive.
posted by dhens at 10:10 PM on June 23, 2016 [26 favorites]


local businesses have a bit of protection from offshoring/outsourcing of jobs to places with lower standards of living.

What? Why? Have you actually read anything about this, or are you just guessing what it means? Because I don't understand this comment at all. We are likely to *lose* businesses, as large firms flee.
posted by howfar at 10:10 PM on June 23, 2016 [9 favorites]


Ordinary Brits wanted the bankers immigrants gone
yes, I know we all hate "FTFY" comments, but this is so obvious
posted by oneswellfoop at 10:11 PM on June 23, 2016 [4 favorites]


This is why we all need to be terrified of the effect of low-information voters.
posted by TwoStride at 10:12 PM on June 23, 2016 [24 favorites]


Ordinary Brits wanted the bankers gone

So they voted to isolate themselves on this godforsaken island with them!
posted by Dysk at 10:12 PM on June 23, 2016 [7 favorites]


I've seen mentions of another independence vote for Scotland and even the possibility of Ireland unification. Theoretically, could London secede and become a nation-state like Monaco or Singapore?

Because if "ordinary Brits" want the bankers gone and the people of London want to stay in EU...
posted by fatehunter at 10:12 PM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


A good and somewhat technical breakdown of "what happens next." Essentially, it will take years to play out, and the EU may force the UK to trigger Article 50, a fast-track to reverting to WTO rules for trading with Europe: Britain has voted to leave the EU – what happens next?
posted by My Dad at 10:13 PM on June 23, 2016


I'm willing to be convinced otherwise.

Even if you wave away the obvious negative economic effects, the Leave campaign was driven by a xenophobia against immigrants from Europe and immigrants from the rest of the world more broadly. Brexit will empower this strain of jingoistic nationalism in the UK, and in Europe more broadly. Generally speaking, the world is better off if those trends aren't running hot in Europe.
posted by fitnr at 10:13 PM on June 23, 2016 [16 favorites]


What the hell is an "ordinary Brit"
posted by Existential Dread at 10:13 PM on June 23, 2016 [12 favorites]


So what happens now? A few very very quick predictions:

In the short term we can expect an outbreak of soothing rhetoric from the likes of Johnson and Gove: don't worry, the sun is shining, Britain is still here, no need to panic.

Cameron will have to go. There will be calls for him to stay on for the sake of stability, but his authority has been so badly damaged that I can't see how he can survive. He will go, and go quickly. Johnson will probably succeed him.

It's important to realise that Johnson/Gove and Farage represent two totally different anti-EU positions. Johnson and Gove aren't particularly concerned about immigration, they oppose the EU on the grounds of political and legal sovereignty. Farage doesn't give a toss about the intellectual arguments for sovereignty, his sole concern is immigration. Gove I suspect is privately appalled by Farage's racism, and will do all he can to exclude Farage and UKIP from any significant role.

Johnson's main interest is himself. In fact I wonder how committed he is to leaving the EU at all. He certainly doesn't have the appetite for the months of long and boring treaty negotations that would have to follow. It's possible he may trot off to Brussels, exact some concessions, and then trot back again announcing 'good news chaps, we don't have to leave after all'.

Of course it could all turn out differently, and I can imagine other possible scenarios. Johnson and Gove fail to get the enabling legislation through Parliament, they call a snap election, and a Tory/UKIP electoral pact is followed by five years of a Tory/UKIP coalition government ..

The tragedy is that the Conservative Party has moved sharply to the right just at the time when the Labour Party is least equipped to offer a credible alternative.
posted by verstegan at 10:13 PM on June 23, 2016 [9 favorites]


christ. to those asking why people might be emotional about this, it's not like history has said anything instructive about why a resurgence of far-right nationalism and economic austerity might be troubling. time to turn to The Day Today's video for Britain in times of crisis
posted by Collaterly Sisters at 10:14 PM on June 23, 2016 [38 favorites]


What the hell is an "ordinary Brit"

I think they're related to the "real people" and "decent people" Farage claimed this as a victory for.

Not like me. I'm obviously fake and indecent. And foreign.
posted by Dysk at 10:15 PM on June 23, 2016 [17 favorites]


Well, here we are, and its a beautiful day. Proud of my city for rejecting this bullshit.
posted by threetwentytwo at 10:16 PM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


Cameron will have to go. There will be calls for him to stay on for the sake of stability,

I read somewhere (this thread?) that Johnson and others wrote letters to Cameron, imploring him to stay on "no matter what the result." I think any desire by Johnson for Cameron to stay on is motivated entirely by political pragmatism: in the chaos and volatility that is sure to dominate politics in the coming weeks and months, Cameron sure makes a good lightning rod and fall guy.
posted by My Dad at 10:16 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


@MikeWarot

The problem here is that a member nation leaving the EU is like trying to unscramble an egg. While the UK is a sovereign nation with its own money and laws, it has for decades been a member of a supranational entity explicitly designed to forge cultural, legal, and economic ties among its members. There are millions of UK citizens in other EU countries and other EU citizens in the UK, and untold arrangements and understandings crossing borders. It's hard to say exactly what's going to happen to any of those ties over the next couple years since there's no roadmap for an exit like this.

I suppose you can imagine what Indiana unilaterally seceding from the USA would be like although that's really an apples and oranges comparison.
posted by 3urypteris at 10:20 PM on June 23, 2016 [7 favorites]


So you are OK with references to Hitler? (Not Mike)
posted by futz at 10:21 PM on June 23, 2016


Californian here. I'm pretty sure you're fucked. I don't think everyone's a racist, though.
posted by chimaera at 10:21 PM on June 23, 2016 [4 favorites]


Yeah, the idea of an "ordinary Brit" is ridiculous. What I should say is that, save for one person who believes in conspiracy theories, I haven't encountered one pro-leave argument among people I actually know that doesn't invoke immigration, and I haven't encountered one that makes reference to the desire to get rid of the banking industry
posted by howfar at 10:22 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


England has became a country again.
posted by buzzman at 10:22 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


As a Canadian, I'm pretty sure this voids our arrangement with the Queen. I asked around, and it sounds like our head of state automatically switches to the nearest geographical monarch, which appears to be King Philippe of Belgium.

Drat, Princess Kawananakoa lost out by 200 miles.
posted by snuffleupagus at 10:23 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Indiana doesn’t have it’s own currency & defensible borders. So not really the same thing at all.
posted by pharm at 10:23 PM on June 23, 2016 [4 favorites]


MikeWarot: "From far away here in Indiana, as working person, it seems to be a good thing to get out of the EU if you're not salaried or rich.

I'm willing to be convinced otherwise.
"

Keep watching; I don't see any way things are better for working class and poor people 1, 2, 5 years from now. And I bet they also lose relatively compared to their cohorts in say Germany.
posted by Mitheral at 10:24 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


Why do I keep thinking about Hellblazer from the Thatcher years?
posted by snuffleupagus at 10:24 PM on June 23, 2016 [4 favorites]


Californian here. I'm pretty sure we're all fucked. I don't think everyone's a racist either, though.
posted by snuffleupagus at 10:25 PM on June 23, 2016 [5 favorites]


The world feels so much less safe today. I am so sorry for all who will suffer from this. I suspect we all will feel ill effects. But don't take any grief from US people. We elected Bush twice.
posted by madamjujujive at 10:26 PM on June 23, 2016 [5 favorites]


What the hell is an "ordinary Brit"

Basil Fawlty, apparently.
posted by Automocar at 10:26 PM on June 23, 2016 [26 favorites]


I've taken "ordinary Brit" as code for white, not part of the aristocracy, and a parallel of Plumber Joe from the 2012/2008 elections.
posted by toomanycurls at 10:27 PM on June 23, 2016 [11 favorites]


I think they're related to the "real people" and "decent people" Farage claimed this as a victory for.

Whereas Farage is a "lizard person."
posted by snuffleupagus at 10:27 PM on June 23, 2016 [8 favorites]


god, I bet MI5 could have prevented all this if it weren't for those damnable pen users.
posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 10:28 PM on June 23, 2016 [22 favorites]


Very classy.

Farage is clearly the pound shop Enoch Powell who everyone was warned about, but he ain't no Welshman, and UKIP and its fascist agenda didn't originate out of Wales, however close the tally.
posted by a lungful of dragon at 10:28 PM on June 23, 2016


This doesn't happen in a vacuum. Trading doesn't start in the US for a few hours and the Dow is already projected to open 700 points down.

I can't even get into xe.com at the moment because I'm sure everybody and their uncle is trying to figure out how much less their pound is worth than it was this morning. (Already the largest drop ever, by far)

If we're lucky, the US economy won't come tumbling after. On the brighter side, dollar cost averaging will mean that long-term growth will be fine. Assuming we even have a long-term, I'm getting a whole pre-Archduke Franz Ferdinand vibe out of the world now.
posted by fifteen schnitzengruben is my limit at 10:30 PM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


I guess polls aren't that accurate when the question forces someone to admit something their ashamed of (exiting the EU). I wonder how much this effect masks the support Trump really has?
posted by mulligan at 10:30 PM on June 23, 2016 [7 favorites]


Trump has made that claim in his own speeches.
posted by snuffleupagus at 10:32 PM on June 23, 2016


This is why I've been trying to tell Americans not to be complacent about Trump. A lot of people were sure this would be remain. The betting markets and the financial markets were all going 'Remain'. As were the polls. It's not over until it's over.

And the UK is certainly over.
posted by knapah at 10:32 PM on June 23, 2016 [23 favorites]


I think they're related to the "real people" and "decent people" Farage claimed this as a victory for.

I expect a real Brit is like a real American, where your realness tends to be inversely proportional to the melanin content of your skin.
posted by Justinian at 10:32 PM on June 23, 2016 [17 favorites]


Yeah, the idea of an "ordinary Brit" is ridiculous.

'Ordinary people' has been used a few times in this thread - by howfar for one - and meant nothing sinister in this context. It seems to have set some people off when coupled with 'Brit'.
posted by Coda Tronca at 10:33 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


Slightly calmer reaction:

Frankly, I'm not surprised. To the constant dismay of my friends, I have been predicting that any referendum on membership means Britain leaving the EU since Cameron made the promise in the last election. Then they decided to hold it during the euros, which didn't help. I briefly entertained some optimism briefly last night when the polls and financial market indicated a remain vote, which was obviously a mistake.

Do not underestimate people's willingness to cut off their nose to spite their face. Doubly so to spite someone else's.
posted by Dysk at 10:33 PM on June 23, 2016 [12 favorites]


I wonder how much this effect masks the support Trump really has?

Feels like a long time til November, dont it! One hell of a year!

Daniel Hannan on the news now, assuring EU migrants that all that will change is their voting rights. How he feels enabled to state that with authority is yet to be seen.
posted by threetwentytwo at 10:33 PM on June 23, 2016


I wasn't familiar with Farage before the last few days. I wasn't looking at the television and a British gentleman was speaking. I thought "that sounds like the head baddie from V for Vendetta." I looked over and saw who it was. That's when I learned about Nigel Farage.
posted by Justinian at 10:33 PM on June 23, 2016 [14 favorites]


I'm sincerely even more worried for all those refugees from Syria trying to find shelter. This cannot be a good development for them. At all.
posted by scaryblackdeath at 10:34 PM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


'Ordinary people' has been used a few times in this thread - by howfar for one - and meant nothing sinister in this context. It seems to have set some people off when coupled with 'Brit'.

It's the way it's inherently exclusionary in a way that ordinary people isn't. We're not concerned with any old person, only Brits need apply. Ordinary Brits, mind, none of your immigrant or second-generation Brits.
posted by Dysk at 10:35 PM on June 23, 2016 [12 favorites]


I don't see why everyone is so emotional about this? It's not like the Island is sailing away to the South Atlantic or something.... there's a ton of money they won't be sending to the EU, there will be one less layer of government on top of everything... things go back to the way it was before the EU, people need passports to travel, imports get taxed, and local businesses have a bit of protection from offshoring/outsourcing of jobs to places with lower standards of living.

A large number of my colleagues have just had their lives thrown into turmoil. My salary is worth less than it was yesterday. I won't be able to travel as easily in the future. I won't be able to work overseas as easily in the future. My friends who have their own small independent businesses just saw their costs rise massively, and the prospect of trading tariffs in the future. We're going to lose protection from our own government trying to turn us into a country with low standards of employee rights. I could carry on for ages.

My Grandmother’s Scottish, hopefully that'll put an ancestry citizenship on the cards.
posted by MattWPBS at 10:37 PM on June 23, 2016 [38 favorites]


This is truly, fourth-world sad. But, I mean, when the body politic keeps a known dead-pig fucker in charge and lets him put the whole economy on one vote cuz a immigrants....I shudder for Great Britain, and I pray for you each. I pray to God this does not portend Trump. In any case God Help us all. Also, please recognize the privilege in "willing" to be convinced, and thank you for at least willing to be convinced, unlike the simple majority of GB voters.
posted by riverlife at 10:37 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Whereas Farage is a "lizard person."

Farage's face looks like one of those Trump "Pepe" memes.
posted by My Dad at 10:37 PM on June 23, 2016


Well fair enough, I should have said 'ordinary people' then. But as I am a Londoner, I grew up with 'Brits' of every ethnic origin.
posted by Coda Tronca at 10:37 PM on June 23, 2016


But don't take any grief from US people. We elected Bush twice.

*ahem* We elected Bush once...
posted by 3urypteris at 10:37 PM on June 23, 2016 [68 favorites]


Daniel Hannan on the news now, assuring EU migrants that all that will change is their voting rights. How he feels enabled to state that with authority is yet to be seen.

"If you're an EU citizen, don't worry. Your status won't change. You just won't be able to vote in MEP or local elections."

So my status won't change, except that I will now be utterly disenfranchised in every way on every level and unable to vote in anything more than an Internet poll? How is that not my status changing significantly?
posted by Dysk at 10:38 PM on June 23, 2016 [28 favorites]


Ok, so a lot of egg-unscrambling has to happen... that makes sense to be in terms I can relate to. A lot of disruption is going to happen, which makes me sad.

The economic outcome of this may or may not be good, in general. Everyone thought Iceland was nuts when they kicked out the bankers, but they seem to be recovering quicker for it. I wouldn't count this one as decided either way.

Racism... yeah, that's a thing... it sucks.

Thanks for explaining it to me, MeFi.
posted by MikeWarot at 10:41 PM on June 23, 2016 [5 favorites]


"I'm getting a whole pre-Archduke Franz Ferdinand vibe out of the world now."

Yeah I'm trying not to overreact and Godwin my own brain but I don't want to UNDERreact either, and the National Front and literal Nazis getting all excited about it is not helping with my assessment of the appropriate level of panic here. (£150bn evaporating from the FTSE is probably plenty of panic to start with, I guess.)

Part of me just can't accept that people looked at this amazing utopian project for peace and said, "Sure, it stopped a thousand years of non-stop European warfare that frequently sucked in the entire known world, but I really just don't like how they regulate sausages so balls to all that."

Part of me is so angry at how the leave campaign manipulated voters' real concerns about the economy and their lives and livelihoods with outright lies, and with false promises that will never be delivered.
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 10:42 PM on June 23, 2016 [122 favorites]


oh my god britain what have you done
posted by poffin boffin at 10:43 PM on June 23, 2016 [12 favorites]


working person, it seems to be a good thing to get out of the EU if you're not salaried or rich

In Europe, working people have salaries, in general.
posted by ambrosen at 10:43 PM on June 23, 2016 [8 favorites]


Nigel Farage, the Ukip leader, has told ITV’s Good Morning Britain that he thought it was a mistake for the Vote Leave campaign to say that it could save £350m a week by leaving the EU and that the money could go to the NHS.

Well that didn't take long
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 10:44 PM on June 23, 2016 [28 favorites]


All the time, it was... We finally really did it. [falls to his knees screaming] YOU MANIACS! YOU BLEW IT UP! AH, DAMN YOU! GOD DAMN YOU ALL TO HELL!
posted by crossoverman at 10:45 PM on June 23, 2016 [4 favorites]


Human-flesh-eating lizard man Nigel Farage, the nazi party leader, cackled maniacally on good morning britain as he devoured a child. "it was all liessssss, you foolssss!"
posted by poffin boffin at 10:46 PM on June 23, 2016 [14 favorites]


Birmingham, city of immigrants, votes to leave.

God, half the city centre has been built with EU money.

It seems there is a very close correlation between areas of poverty and inequality and the Leave vote.
posted by brilliantmistake at 10:47 PM on June 23, 2016 [7 favorites]


Yeah, I have had salaried factory jobs and bar jobs. And hourly-paid doctor jobs, but they were pretty well-paid and not really what you're talking about. You get the same benefits either way, we don't have that divide like you do in the US.
posted by tinkletown at 10:47 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


working person, it seems to be a good thing to get out of the EU if you're not salaried or rich

In Europe, working people have salaries, in general.


I think the difference here is wage (per-hour / per-day) pay vs a monthly/annual salary, which tend to be from different types of occupations. (Not that I agree with the idea that non-salaried workers should support Brexit.)
posted by dhens at 10:47 PM on June 23, 2016


The border between Ireland and Northern Ireland is about to get interesting again.
posted by TWinbrook8 at 10:49 PM on June 23, 2016 [9 favorites]


Bunch of quitters, no wonder they lost the empire.
posted by ckape at 10:53 PM on June 23, 2016 [4 favorites]


Nigel Farage, the Ukip leader, has told ITV’s Good Morning Britain that he thought it was a mistake for the Vote Leave campaign to say that it could save £350m a week by leaving the EU and that the money could go to the NHS.

This will only be the first of many many promises brexit was sold with that will be backtracked in the coming weeks and months. Farage has less of a sense of subtlety or timing than most politicians, of course.
posted by Dysk at 10:53 PM on June 23, 2016 [28 favorites]


Otoh, how long will it be until another referendum can be held?
posted by Apocryphon at 10:54 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Otoh, how long will it be until another referendum can be held?


It was as clear a majority as anyone could ask for. You can't tell the people to keep voting until they get it right.
posted by Coda Tronca at 10:57 PM on June 23, 2016 [4 favorites]


I have one positive thought. When Farage's racists turn out to be just as good at fucking over the working class as Cameron's secret racists we will finally get this socialist utopia I've been dreaming about since I was a kid.

As if. Fuck.
posted by fullerine at 10:57 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Apropos of nothing, I love that Guardian histogram of the UK. It's like Britain as reimagined by Botero.
posted by 3urypteris at 10:57 PM on June 23, 2016 [4 favorites]


I feel like about a year from now, England (and I guess Wales) will probably be looking something like this
posted by DoctorFedora at 10:58 PM on June 23, 2016 [4 favorites]


this is just a spectacularly bad vote overall
posted by DoctorFedora at 10:58 PM on June 23, 2016


Otoh, how long will it be until another referendum can be held?

Yeah, I'm kinda wondering about the practicality of that. Like, in a week or a month or whatever, as the very serious consequences of this sink in and the lies become clear, can another referendum be called? Like, can they call it the Are You Fucking Serious Referendum of the Referendum?
posted by scaryblackdeath at 10:58 PM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


on the development side, it's fairly obvious it's going to hit grantees funded by DFID and FCO hard.
posted by cendawanita at 11:00 PM on June 23, 2016


It was as clear a majority as anyone could ask for. You can't tell the people to keep voting until they get it right.

But that's what a leave vote is isn't it? You only have to do it once, and then it's done and it's irrevocable, no matter how many stay votes you held previously, or how many would succeed in the future?

It's utterly ridiculous to change the entire structure of a government on a sort of vote that only once has to achieve a little over 50% one way vs. the other.
posted by Zalzidrax at 11:00 PM on June 23, 2016 [9 favorites]


Nigel Farage, the Ukip leader, has told ITV’s Good Morning Britain that he thought it was a mistake for the Vote Leave campaign to say that it could save £350m a week by leaving the EU and that the money could go to the NHS.

Oh no, poor Nigel! What terrible luck for him to have only just learned that this wasn't actually true, just after the results came in, and when he'd spent his entire campaign doing the best he could to be honest. He must feel so upset :(

Still, I'm sure he's never advocated NHS privatisation or anything, so it'll all be safe in his hands.

(ha. ha. ha.)
posted by Catseye at 11:00 PM on June 23, 2016 [13 favorites]


Otoh, how long will it be until another referendum can be held?

Here in Scotland, after this news? Oooh, give it about, I don't know - ten minutes?
posted by Catseye at 11:01 PM on June 23, 2016 [14 favorites]


i don't understand these people saying carney is likely to raise rates
do they think he is a bond villain
posted by PMdixon at 11:03 PM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


It was as clear a majority as anyone could ask for. You can't tell the people to keep voting until they get it right.

Not so clear six months down the line, as the actual repercussions appear. Would Parliament even be able to "follow the will of the people" if by that time people are so anti-Brexit that they're voting MPs out of office?
posted by Apocryphon at 11:04 PM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


I have to wonder how many Leave voters felt an instant pang of regret when Farage decided to crib from ID4 in his victory speech
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 11:06 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


England has became a country again.
A much smaller, much more isolated country. Good luck with that.
posted by oneswellfoop at 11:07 PM on June 23, 2016 [8 favorites]


I am so sorry to hear this.

.
posted by GrammarMoses at 11:08 PM on June 23, 2016


MikeWarot - The discussion has focused on Britain and rightfully so since that's the point of this thread and it's too early to know what the broader consequences might be. But for me the nightmare scenario, and I'm not saying it's likely just the nightmare for me, is as follows:

The UK leaving the EU crashes the UK economy and the Eurozone, triggering a global financial crisis. The economic turmoil sweeps Donald Trump into power in the US and empowers right wing nationalists throughout Europe not to mention leaving a generation already hurt by the 2008 bust even poorer. Acrimony between the European powers combined with Trump's isolationism destabilize the NATO alliance giving Russia room to make yet more mischief in Eastern Europe. At the same time, the economic uncertainty contributes to even more turmoil in the middle east and compromises the western powers' ability to confront ISIS. This global instability (don't forget China has been having problems since last year) leaves the Paris Agreement on Climate languishing, even as 2016 sees record breaking temperatures (May was the 13 month in a row to break global temperature records per NOAA). Within a decade the whole mess triggers waves of refugees that make the Syria crisis look like a school field trip. War in the Balkans. War in countries that had been dependent on oil money. It gets worse from there.

I'm not saying it's likely, but it's more likely than I thought it was yesterday that's for sure.
posted by Wretch729 at 11:08 PM on June 23, 2016 [48 favorites]


I have to wonder how many Leave voters felt an instant pang of regret...

I wonder how many Leave voters thought they were making a symbolic vote to stick it to the man but secretly thinking Remain would win in the end.
posted by dhens at 11:09 PM on June 23, 2016 [28 favorites]


I really don't think this turn of events has shifted us into The Darkest Timeline, but we're definitely officially into a more chaotic timeline than we were yesterday. What happens with the UK? Assumably Scoxit (you heard it here first folks) but what about Northern Ireland? Wales? Holy shit the regions of England itself?

And in the EU, what happens with Catalonia, Veneto, Wallonia, the Basque parts of Spain and France with respect to their status with in their status-quo nations? Greece and Spain and Italy within the Eurozone? Gert Wilders just called for a Dutch membership referendum, will that happen and/or will other nations do the same? And what about the nations in line to join the Union? And how is this all going to play out with Russia and the USA and the world at large?

Someone said it above, yes this is absolutely a date for the history books.
posted by 3urypteris at 11:09 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


Re: Texit, there are about as many people in Texas as there are people who voted in the UK referendum. Say half of them are eligible to vote. If Texas had a vote tomorrow to secede, I can almost guarantee that it would succeed, no matter how bug fuck insane the idea is. And thinking about the position I would be in, were that to happen, (if it were allowed, and rebellion wouldn't be crushed instantaneously by weapons of war), has made me much more empathetic to people like Dysk and others.

This is a huge sea change, but the thing I don't hear anyone talking about is how this is a bonanza for the top 10% of the monied class. people with assets to play in the markets tomorrow are going to make a fucking killing. Seriously, stocks and currencies will be a fire sale when the markets open. It sucks for everyone else,but the rich are going shopping tomorrow. Because frankly, nothing that happens will ever hurt the money class. The rest of us are doomed no matter what.
posted by SecretAgentSockpuppet at 11:10 PM on June 23, 2016 [20 favorites]


What have we done?

Dear Metafilter. I am English. I am not a racist. I voted Remain. I believe in European union, and the freedoms, rights and responsibilities it entails, based on its history in the 20th century. I campaigned on the streets, I handed out leaflets, I talked to people, I listened to people.

It is impossible for me to take in what has happened. My world has changed, and in no way for the better. I have friends I love whose lives are now thrown into turmoil, and a country I love now thrown into turmoil.

And for what?

England is lost.

I am, however, in Scotland. I don't know what I can do to return to the EU, but I wish to do it, and I think I'm in the best place I can be to make that happen.

The vote was a result of a failure of politics, not because of racism or closed-mindedness or stupidity. People want what's best for themselves and those they know: they have been sold down the river, and they knew it. But nobody who knew what had happened could or would tell them why, and others used that vacuum...

But sorry, everyone. I did what I could. It wasn't enough.
posted by Devonian at 11:10 PM on June 23, 2016 [99 favorites]


But that's what a leave vote is isn't it? You only have to do it once, and then it's done and it's irrevocable, no matter how many stay votes you held previously, or how many would succeed in the future?

Some independence referendums (e.g. Montenegro ) have used a threshold above 50% for precisely this reason. Had they done this here, I'm sure people would view it as Cameron rigging the results, but it's not that ridiculous to require a supermajority for such major changes.

I mean, heck, we just needed a supermajority here to enact a fairly small parcel tax to pay for wetlands restoration, yet 50%+1 is enough to turn the UK upside-down?
posted by zachlipton at 11:11 PM on June 23, 2016 [8 favorites]


good luck scotland, we're all counting on you.
posted by poffin boffin at 11:11 PM on June 23, 2016 [9 favorites]


I don't even know what to say.

We're an EU/US couple working in academia (why yes I am partially EU funded) and a related field in the UK, and those pounds dropping? That's our savings. The ones we were scraping together for our move and new home in not Britain.

We would've been in the US, but my wife was looking for an academic position in 2012 and guess what the US' take on same-sex couples was back then? Anyone remember DOMA?

So homophobia kept us out of the US, and now that we could go xenophobia has shattered our savings and made our futures - even in the short term - way unstable. Plus she's a visible minority so that's always fun when you live in a boiling cauldron of hate!

On the bright side we can get out. A lot of other people who are going to suffer the consequences can't. And there will be suffering, even more than there already has been (and that's with Jo Cox murdered over this).
posted by harujion at 11:12 PM on June 23, 2016 [53 favorites]


Texas is not going to vote to secede.
posted by Apocryphon at 11:16 PM on June 23, 2016 [4 favorites]


good luck scotland, we're all counting on you.

I don't know, I'm pretty hyped at the prospects for the reunification of Ireland. We can have multiple groundbreaking map revisions.
posted by Apocryphon at 11:17 PM on June 23, 2016 [13 favorites]


You can't tell the people to keep voting until they get it right.

Sure you can - the pro-EU oligarchs have done it several times.
posted by cmonkey at 11:18 PM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


My heart goes out to everyone in the UK who is harmed by this decision.
posted by Annika Cicada at 11:21 PM on June 23, 2016 [20 favorites]


Congratulations UK, you've done something that is going to actively and directly harm millions of people in a really nasty way. But I guess they're either not British or not really British enough (i.e. living outside of Britain) so it doesn't matter.
posted by shelleycat at 11:22 PM on June 23, 2016 [11 favorites]


If you mean on Brexit, probably never. As was already said, I don't think you can have a "do over" vote on this.

I think you absolutely can, particularly once the very real consequences start to sink in.
And people start realizing how badly they've been lied to.
posted by scaryblackdeath at 11:24 PM on June 23, 2016 [6 favorites]


Interesting that Cameron now plans to speak after 8am, followed by a statement from the governor of the Bank of England. The LSE opens at 8am and it will be a bloodbath. I'm surprised they don't want a statement out there before the market opens, not that there are any words they can give that would really help.

Of course Nigel Farage is speaking again now, so who knows what going to be left in five minutes.
posted by zachlipton at 11:24 PM on June 23, 2016


I feel sorry for Leave voters. They've been wholly deceived by misplaced blame & irresponsible leadership (both Labour and Tory)
posted by like_neon at 11:25 PM on June 23, 2016 [5 favorites]


AAA credit rating is going (unsurprisingly): http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/sp-says-uk-to-lose-top-credit-rating-after-vote-to-leave-the-eu-reports-a7099581.html

So that's going to make government borrowing even more expensive along with the currency dropping.
posted by MattWPBS at 11:26 PM on June 23, 2016 [10 favorites]


As much as Cameron should resign for allowing this to happen, Corbyn's failure to deliver the labour vote is a major contributing factor. I don't give a toss that he's an avuncular chap with some good policies. Leadership means getting things done.

Off to check the odds of May being PM by August...
posted by Busy Old Fool at 11:26 PM on June 23, 2016 [12 favorites]


Farage is pulling a Howard Dean, except listing off the EU states he thinks will quit next.
posted by zachlipton at 11:26 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


i don't understand these people saying carney is likely to raise rates
do they think he is a bond villain


Since the UK inherited one of our bankers...Carney might be mildly annoyed that this is the referendum scenario in which "money and the ethnic vote" lost, by which I mean to say that he's disappointed in the UK for being shortsightedly xenophobic, comme Jaques Parizeau, who, oddly, spoke with an Oxford accent while speaking English. An interesting position for a Quebec separatist.

But having visited the Scottish Parliament last year, and having listened to a lot of local opinion on how much the thing cost (it's a nice building, IMO, if controversial), it may be money well spent in short order.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 11:27 PM on June 23, 2016


Well, fuck. (Gets kilt out of wardrobe)
posted by alasdair at 11:29 PM on June 23, 2016 [7 favorites]


Looks like an even bigger shitshow will go down in the European markets. Calls for Deutsche Bank down 21%, Volkswagen 13%.
posted by zachlipton at 11:32 PM on June 23, 2016


Leave want Cameron to stay. The have no clue what to do now and they don't want to be anywhere near the shitstorm about to happen. Much easier to sqwak from the sidelines that It's Not Happening fast enough. For my part I want Cameron to stay as punishment for bringing on this mess in the first place.
posted by like_neon at 11:32 PM on June 23, 2016 [4 favorites]


Wait until the football hooligans get off their RyanAir flight to discover they don't get to go to the EU passport control line.

They have to line up with all the "foreigners." What then, lads?
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 11:33 PM on June 23, 2016 [19 favorites]


Look. The EU is not some Star Trek project for a peaceful federation. What it actually is is a neoliberal apparatus controlled by international bankers, administered in Brussels with no transparency whatsoever, which was set up post-WW-II by French bureaucrats.

Precisely the above is a very different narrative, but it is an accurate paraphrase of Yanis Varoufakis, the former Finance Minister during Grexit, as he explained EU politics to Chomsky, and Chomsky concurred, linking this to a crucial inflection point in history known as the Bretton Woods Conference of 1944.

Until the progressives as a whole account for this picture, without appropriate cognizance of this historical and political context, political failures of this sort are a given. The UK was always already in political precarity. The voting map--just look at the one on Guardian.com--it is literally a visual representation of class conflict, as a reaction to the economic relationships due to the above history. It's the EU's fault for establishing a capitalist, self-serving bureaucracy and not dealing with the frustrations and resentments down on the ground.

It's this sort of knowledge that makes the whole thing tragic (in the formal, literary sense). Brexit is a horrible outcome, but the only way it could have been stopped is if liberals, progressives, leftists alike did not buy into EU propaganda in the first place.
posted by polymodus at 11:35 PM on June 23, 2016 [59 favorites]


Whatever the motivation(s) (sovereignty, immigration, racism, economics, etc.) I still cannot grasp that a civilized nation has opted for self-vivisection. This is heartbreaking.
posted by riverlife at 11:36 PM on June 23, 2016 [4 favorites]


Yeah, Cameron staying on would be an extra cherry on top for Johnson and Farage and the rest, wouldn't it? Not only would they get their way, but then Cameron would be stuck suffering the brunt of anger and blame for all the shit that goes down in the aftermath.

No sympathy for Cameron given that he walked right into this mess, but he should step down just to force the Leave leaders to take over the mess and suffer the consequences.
posted by scaryblackdeath at 11:36 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


Oh but Nigel thinks Cameron should go. This is the thing about this group of clowns. They've barely had consensus as a Leave group throughout the whole campaign and this is who people think will have a coherent plan for the future?
posted by like_neon at 11:37 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


I feel sorry for Leave voters. They've been wholly deceived by misplaced blame & irresponsible leadership (both Labour and Tory)
Most won't have access to either the information sources or the analytical skills necessary to understand the scale of the deception.

Re: Labour leadership. It was telling how much heavy lifting Miliband and Brown ended up having to do during the last week of the campaign.
posted by Sonny Jim at 11:39 PM on June 23, 2016 [5 favorites]


Brexit to WHERE? I am absolutely flummoxed by this outcome.
posted by thebrokedown at 11:41 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


And Corbyn now speaking. He must feel really good now that his gag has been taken off his mouth.
posted by like_neon at 11:43 PM on June 23, 2016


Most won't have access to either the information sources or the analytical skills necessary to understand the scale of the deception.

Oh, nonsense. Can we please stop this? Leave voters went into this with their eyes open, knew exactly what they were voting for. Stop treating them like children.
posted by threetwentytwo at 11:44 PM on June 23, 2016 [6 favorites]


So 15 minutes before markets open in Europe, it's been a bloodbath in Asian equity markets so far. Japan down 8%, Hong Kong down 4.5%, Australia and India down 3.5%, S Korea down 3%, Singapore down 2% and China down 1.3%. Back of the envelope, that's down around $750 billion all together in local currency, over half of it in Japan. It's worse relative to the US dollar; Japan, Australia and New Zealand's currencies all lost value as well.
posted by Homeboy Trouble at 11:45 PM on June 23, 2016


I don't think they are children but I do think they have misplaced fears and anger that stemmed from poverty and widening gaps in wealth. These fears were inflamed and pandered to rather than a government listening and tackling the roots of those fears.
posted by like_neon at 11:48 PM on June 23, 2016 [7 favorites]


On the other hand, Empires rise, Empires fall. But has such an ancient nation willingly fallen on its own sword like this before, via the ballot box?
posted by riverlife at 11:48 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


From Twitter, which pointed out that The Financial Times has given up: Pound Losing Against, Well, Everything
posted by harujion at 11:48 PM on June 23, 2016 [6 favorites]


So 15 minutes before markets open in Europe, it's been a bloodbath in Asian equity markets so far. Japan down 8%, Hong Kong down 4.5%, Australia and India down 3.5%, S Korea down 3%, Singapore down 2% and China down 1.3%. Back of the envelope, that's down around $750 billion all together in local currency, over half of it in Japan. It's worse relative to the US dollar; Japan, Australia and New Zealand's currencies all lost value as well.

The JPY strengthened today against the USD, EUR, and GBP -- most investors see it as a safe haven currency when there is perceived global economic weakness.
posted by armage at 11:53 PM on June 23, 2016 [1 favorite]


Also may bedbugs forever roam the sheets of the 28% or so of this country who didn't vote. Aaron Burrs the lot of them.
posted by harujion at 11:54 PM on June 23, 2016 [2 favorites]


For those who think there's no way on Earth that Donald Trump could possibly be elected in November, let this be your wake-up call.

This year, man...can we just pretend it didn't happen and start fresh?
posted by SisterHavana at 11:54 PM on June 23, 2016 [38 favorites]


[Yanis Varoufakis] Yes, your concerns about loss of sovereignty are justified, but (and this is very important), you cannot regain your sovereignty by exiting the EU. The single market to which you need to belong for the economic success of your nation requires pooled sovereignty, but done in such a way that it works effectively for all nations who are a part of it giving transparency, stability and with proper democratic processes.

So, stay in and join the rest of us who are fighting for the EU to be properly democratised.


From this article Six economists on Brexit
posted by chapps at 11:54 PM on June 23, 2016 [9 favorites]




Just musing that my employers have a branch in the UK, which we refer to as the EU branch. We have a lot of EU customers outside the UK. Logically, if we want to be based in an Anglophone country still (we are New Zealand owned) it would now make sense to start planning to relocate to Dublin.

We're very small and won't make a difference, but I imagine there are large multinationals having exactly the same thoughts.
posted by i_am_joe's_spleen at 11:56 PM on June 23, 2016 [9 favorites]


I'll confess I'm a little bit let down UK, we gave you the benefit of the doubt and it turns out you really were smoking crack-rock in your grandma's cellar sending you into a drug-fueled psychotic break that led you to believe durning down the house would be easier than taking care of much needed repairs.
Also, Nigel, you should carry responsibility for this.
posted by From Bklyn at 11:57 PM on June 23, 2016 [3 favorites]


I'm sorry, but, yeah, a large amount of the people who voted to leave did so under false assumptions and as a result of disingenuous campaigning and vitriolic propaganda. 52% of people here aren't drooling racists, they are people living in a deeply unequal society, suffering the effects of "austerity" and acutely aware of the injustice of it, and were told that it was people more badly off than them's fault and that having greater control of borders would make life better. We know this rhetoric works, it's worked throughout history. It's not infantilising to point out the insidiousness of right wing propaganda and the failure of the left to educate and inform voters that the things they are hoping a Leave vote will fix are the fault of the current and previous right wing governments (Labour and Tory), and the liberal capitalist system as a whole. No hospital beds? Makes a lot more sense for those invested in destabilising public services in favour of privatisation to stir up hate against immigrants for "taking" them than point out that it's brutal cuts to funding that are (deliberately) undermining the NHS.
posted by mymbleth at 11:57 PM on June 23, 2016 [72 favorites]


riverlife: "On the other hand, Empires rise, Empires fall. "
It’s much harder when it’s all your call.
All alone, 'cross the sea.
When your people say they hate you...
Don't come crawling back to me!

Da da da dat da, dat da da da da ya da
Da da da dat da da ya da...

You’re on your own…
posted by Rhaomi at 11:57 PM on June 23, 2016 [10 favorites]


As usual, a Hamilton lyric sums it all up:
"You’re on your own
Awesome. Wow
Do you have a clue what happens now?"
posted by zachlipton at 11:58 PM on June 23, 2016 [22 favorites]


So, only half-facetious question: how can the U.K. now emulate what Norway does? They're not in the E.U. and somehow isn't collapsing. If you're going to wryly and sardonically bring up North Sea oil, then, well, certainly the first step is to somehow convince the Scots to say.
posted by Apocryphon at 12:00 AM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


Logically, if we want to be based in an Anglophone country still (we are New Zealand owned) it would now make sense to start planning to relocate to Dublin.

Unless the UK decides to cut you a deal better than the EU. Which is kind of the whole point.
posted by Coda Tronca at 12:02 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]




how can the U.K. now emulate what Norway does?

Stop electing Tories.
posted by ROU_Xenophobe at 12:03 AM on June 24, 2016 [21 favorites]


The bus was a lie?!
posted by harujion at 12:04 AM on June 24, 2016 [8 favorites]


823 people voted to trap themselves on Gibraltar. Astonishing.
posted by rum-soaked space hobo at 12:04 AM on June 24, 2016 [13 favorites]


.
posted by rum-soaked space hobo at 12:05 AM on June 24, 2016


MattWPS: So that's going to make government borrowing even more expensive along with the currency dropping.


No it wont: We print our own currency. This is what protects us from a Greece-like outcome - we are not beholden to the Bundesbank in order to keep the lights on.
posted by pharm at 12:05 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


how can the U.K. now emulate what Norway does?

Step 1: Cut their population by 59 million people
Step 2: Oil money for everyone!!
Step 3: Travel back in time so they never joined the EU in the first place
posted by harujion at 12:06 AM on June 24, 2016 [23 favorites]


how can the U.K. now emulate what Norway does?

It's easy! First, start exporting 1.7 million barrels of oil per day...
posted by Sys Rq at 12:07 AM on June 24, 2016 [3 favorites]


From Rami Ismail:
Just in case somebody argued the majority of the UK voted leave: they didn't.
37.5% voted Leave
34.7% voted Remain.
27.8% did not vote.
posted by harujion at 12:09 AM on June 24, 2016 [10 favorites]


With the oil price on the floor, having oil fields isn’t quite the money tree it used to be these days (which is why Scotland is not actually guaranteed to quit the UK at the moment - they don’t have the cushion of the oil income to back them, so it’s much riskier than it would otherwise be. Of course people said that about the EU referendum too!).
posted by pharm at 12:09 AM on June 24, 2016


Just in case somebody argued the majority of the UK voted leave: they didn't.

If you didn't vote you voted for the winning side by default.
posted by Justinian at 12:11 AM on June 24, 2016 [33 favorites]


My fault. I used a pencil. Sorry.
posted by vbfg at 12:11 AM on June 24, 2016 [6 favorites]


If the UK does actually leave, pretty much every multinational corporate tax dodge involving Ireland-UK-Netherlands etc will need to be redone. I'm thinking the UK gets taken out of the chain. That's a lot of zeros that will have to move around.
posted by meehawl at 12:12 AM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


Well, I suppose emulating Switzerland or Iceland are also out of the question.
posted by Apocryphon at 12:12 AM on June 24, 2016


London's financial centre already emulates Monaco.
posted by Coda Tronca at 12:14 AM on June 24, 2016 [3 favorites]


With the oil price on the floor, having oil fields isn’t quite the money tree it used to be these days

No, but for a country like Norway, which exports more oil than Canada with 1/6 the population, that's still not exactly a huge problem. (And the price is nowhere near the floor, incidentally. It's just no longer touching the ceiling.)
posted by Sys Rq at 12:14 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


Well, I suppose emulating Switzerland or Iceland are also out of the question.

Switzerland: cut the population by 56 or so million, go back in time and avoid all wars in the past century, convince everyone to save their money in your banks.

Iceland: ...seriously? They've essentially got the population of the greater Newcastle area.
posted by harujion at 12:16 AM on June 24, 2016 [6 favorites]


Suggestion of Cameron resigning now... Wouldn't blame him tbh
posted by threetwentytwo at 12:16 AM on June 24, 2016


Part of me just can't accept that people looked at this amazing utopian project for peace and said, "Sure, it stopped a thousand years of non-stop European warfare that frequently sucked in the entire known world, but I really just don't like how they regulate sausages so balls to all that."

I think the decision to leave is a terrible one, but this representation of the EU does not resemble any way it has acted or generally presented itself recently. Obviously, as I'm Irish I have some dark feelings about the supposed utopianism of the EU as we've recently experienced the iron hand rather than the dove of peace, but I suspect that even very strong EU supporters don't see it that way. Instead it is packaged as an economic necessity and it's hard to feel emotionally tied to what appears often more like a corporation than a government you have a stake in.
posted by lesbiassparrow at 12:16 AM on June 24, 2016 [5 favorites]


The UK banking sector has had 30% chopped off it’s share value on the markets.
posted by pharm at 12:16 AM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


emulate what Norway does? They're not in the E.U. and somehow isn't collapsing.

Start diverting in the 1990s some of the profits from North Sea oil into a sovereign wealth fund, like Norway did. Or, instead, use the profits to keep taxes down, like Thatcher and post-Thatcher Brit governments. Long-term versus short-term gain.
posted by Mister Bijou at 12:16 AM on June 24, 2016 [10 favorites]


This does not have to be the horrorshow that we fear. This is a massive opportunity to create the society that we want. The next stage in the neoliberal playbook will be the further demonisation of the working class. So it will be the ignorant Mackems wot did it like the rioting scousers or the striking miners of the 80s. They need to keep us fighting each other so they can get on with perpetuating their beneficial status quo.

We do not have to wait until Farage's racists turn out to be just as helpful to us as Cameron's secret racists; we can seize the initiative from them.

The thing about the nebulous "other" which they use to stoke fear is that it is nebulous. They used immigration as a convenient answer to why so many in this country live so perilously. We can offer different answers. We can define the "other" based on the reality of our inequality not the story that the right want us to follow.

But the anger that you feel against my peers, against my family for being so desperate for change that they turned to the only game in town cannot drive you. What Leave offered was a lie and a scam but they were the only ones offering something which wasn't perpetuation of the same shity zero-hour precariousness that most of this country are living under. The massive propaganda apparatus which shores up this neoliberal lie wasn't seriously countered because the fear which they use on *us* is the fear that rocking the austerity boat will cause some kind of collapse.

It doesn't have to be austerity, it can be a wealth tax and UBI.
It doesn't have to be racism, it can be a definition of Britishness which is based on reality.
It doesn't have to be fear.

The biggest lie we are told is that it has to be this way.

My country just voted for change at all costs. Now is the time to drive that change.
posted by fullerine at 12:20 AM on June 24, 2016 [39 favorites]


Is it really a likely possibility that Northern Ireland will give up on Unionism and 400 years of sentiment, and abandon the UK for the Republic? I know it's not 1972 anymore but I can't see their Remain vote as strong enough to dissolve the long memory.
posted by Harvey Kilobit at 12:22 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


Wow. Gone by October.
posted by threetwentytwo at 12:23 AM on June 24, 2016


Yup. Cameron is resigning.

Oh God. Does this mean we get Boris?
posted by pharm at 12:24 AM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


Cameron standing down ...
posted by Sonny Jim at 12:25 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


See ya
posted by Coda Tronca at 12:25 AM on June 24, 2016


Plans to wait to allow a new PM to invoke Article 50.
posted by zachlipton at 12:25 AM on June 24, 2016


Oh no.
Not Boris.
Please say it ain't so.
posted by harujion at 12:25 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


>My country just voted for change at all costs. Now is the time to drive that change.

A contact of mine on FB has a different opinion:

The sad fact is, a lot of people voting Leave did so either because they listened to a bunch of hyperbole and bullshit or because they're not happy with their current social and economic situation and somehow equate that to Europe. The problem is our government, not the EU, you fucking morons. And the irony is that half of you elected the Tories...
posted by My Dad at 12:26 AM on June 24, 2016 [7 favorites]


I never thought I'd see the day when I would be appalled by DC resigning.
posted by tinkletown at 12:26 AM on June 24, 2016 [23 favorites]


Trigger Article 50 after October.
posted by Mister Bijou at 12:26 AM on June 24, 2016


"We should be proud of the fact that we trust the people, he says. There are times when it is right to ask the people."

THIS WAS NOT THE TIME

It was not right

It was stupid.
posted by harujion at 12:27 AM on June 24, 2016 [18 favorites]


My money's on Gove, a possibility I find even more terrifying. Not that my money's worth anything any more.

Remember - there is nothing the ascendant Brexiters in the Tory party have touched that they've not completely fucked up. Now they get to fuck up the entire country rather than just individual government departments.

Thanks, Dave, you twat!
posted by Grangousier at 12:28 AM on June 24, 2016 [3 favorites]


Cameron resigns. This is the right thing. I only wanted him to stay to be punished. But this is the best option for him. Don't let the door hit your ass on the way out dude.
posted by like_neon at 12:28 AM on June 24, 2016


That's a heck of a pitch to try to calm the markets: no new PM until October; no affirmative steps to leave the EU until sometime after that. He's essentially saying he'll block the way for months in the hope everyone comes to their senses in the meantime.
posted by zachlipton at 12:28 AM on June 24, 2016 [6 favorites]


The SNP warned during the campaign that if - as has happened - the UK overall votes to leave the EU but Scots vote to remain, Scotland would be taken out of the EU "against its will" and this could be the trigger for another independence vote.
from the BBC.

I guess they could go back on their word, but it seems like another independence vote for Scotland is more likely now.
posted by Sleeper at 12:28 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


Who's likely to be in the running? May, Gove, Johnson?
posted by threetwentytwo at 12:28 AM on June 24, 2016


David Cameron: "To EU citizens living here, be assured that there will be no immediate change to your circumstances, no initial change to how our countries relate"

That sounds like there absolutely will be changes. In even the short term. Just not "immediately".
posted by Dysk at 12:29 AM on June 24, 2016 [3 favorites]


The problem is our government, not the EU, you fucking morons. And the irony is that half of you elected the Tories...

That man is stealing your cookie.
posted by fullerine at 12:29 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


So Cameron is a coward as well as an arsehole.
posted by Happy Dave at 12:30 AM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


Corbyn not quitting but already has about six knives sticking out of his back...
posted by Coda Tronca at 12:30 AM on June 24, 2016 [5 favorites]


Cameron says the next PM has to invoke Article 50. He won't touch that lever.

So we now have three months for things to get so bad that even the next PM can't survive trying it.

My child is worried that this referendum result shows that we can't count on democracy. She worries that it means Trump could become president. If that happens, I don't know where we'd go. Scotland's EU bid is still under threat of veto from Spain and Belgium. What a sickening feeling in my stomach. I was a European citizen for only a few years and now it will be taken from me.
posted by rum-soaked space hobo at 12:30 AM on June 24, 2016 [6 favorites]


We do not have to wait until Farage's racists turn out to be just as helpful to us as Cameron's secret racists; we can seize the initiative from them.

Except that we do. We're stuck with decidedly kippery Tories until 2020.
posted by Dysk at 12:30 AM on June 24, 2016


Most disastrous British Prime Minister since ... Eden? Chamberlain? Lord Freaking North?
posted by Sonny Jim at 12:31 AM on June 24, 2016 [3 favorites]


I voted to leave - and i'm thoroughly unsurprised that this thread is assuming that everyone who voted to leave is a racist. I thought long and hard about it, and decided that leaving was worth the risk.

I voted because I believe that the way the EU works means that it won't ever change unless it has a massive shock. Maybe this will be that shock, but i doubt it.

I have never believed in the Euro, and took the way Germany made a €100bn profit from the Greek crisis as evidence of just how fucked it was to have a single currency without a single exchequer.

I'm disgusted by the way the EU is treating refugees and migrants even when MSF refuses to take their money any longer. I would happily accept half the people in "the jungle" but believe that France has a duty to process them as refugees / asylum seekers / migrants as their first safe port.

I believe in free trade and in free movement of people, and I hope that the Remain group will now stand with the moderate "non-racist" leavers to make this leave into something that works for our EU colleagues.

I know my opinion is unpopular, and I know that I'll likely get flamed to a crisp. You may disagree with my conclusions, but please don't assume that everyone who voted to leave is racist, uninformed, or an idiot.

PS - after the "bloodbath" comments, the pound has now climbed back from 132 back to 136-137. It's not going to head back where it was any time soon, but the claims it was going to free fall were wrong. The currency was always going to drop because the markets hate the unknown.
posted by twine42 at 12:32 AM on June 24, 2016 [37 favorites]


Hopefully HRC takes this referendum as an indication that despite being a clown, Trump and the RNC can not be laughed away and victory assumed. They need to treat the upcoming presidential elections like they are facing Regan and go in hard.
posted by PenDevil at 12:33 AM on June 24, 2016 [21 favorites]


I don't know, I'm pretty hyped at the prospects for the reunification of Ireland. We can have multiple groundbreaking map revisions.

When I think of all the people who died or were injured in the Troubles, and the high hopes we had with the Good Friday Agreement, I find this kind of comment pretty sickening.
posted by Azara at 12:35 AM on June 24, 2016 [16 favorites]


I will do everthing I can as prime minister to steady the ship over the coming weeks and months. But I do not think it would be right for me to try to be the captain that steers our country to its next destination.

He says, having steered us straight into an iceberg.
posted by harujion at 12:35 AM on June 24, 2016 [12 favorites]


Thing is, twine42, you're outsourcing the majority of that risk to people like me - EU citizens in the UK. We didn't get to have a say in this, our interests were not considered and our humanity and existence barely if ever acknowledged, and we will be the ones bearing the biggest impact from this.

So you decided that risking MY life was worth it. I got no say.
posted by Dysk at 12:37 AM on June 24, 2016 [82 favorites]


It's not going to head back where it was any time soon, but the claims it was going to free fall were wrong.

...they were?

More than £100bn wiped off FTSE 100 after UK votes for Brexit.
Shares are plunging, and sterling has crumbled to a 31-year low...
posted by harujion at 12:37 AM on June 24, 2016 [12 favorites]


The captain of the Exxon Valdez has got to be feeling a huge weight lifted off his shoulders. This guy.
posted by riverlife at 12:38 AM on June 24, 2016 [3 favorites]


So you decided that risking MY life was worth it.

Dysk, the issues at stake affect a lot of us.
posted by Coda Tronca at 12:39 AM on June 24, 2016 [5 favorites]


Some more, more immediately, and more directly than others.
posted by Dysk at 12:40 AM on June 24, 2016 [9 favorites]


Went to sleep with Remain leading and woke up to this and I'm just stunned and horrified. I know that the semblance of peace we have here in Northern Ireland is much, more more tenuous than is portrayed in the media. The paramilitaries never went away, they never gave up control of their areas. Now we're back into an era of enforced border controls between North and South and Sinn Fein have already called for a vote on a United Ireland and I'm worried.
posted by billiebee at 12:41 AM on June 24, 2016 [25 favorites]


Twine. I hear you: Neither Leave nor Remain counted as a "good" option for me. Just the least worst out of two.

The EU showed its true colours in the post-crisis collapse of the southern fringe economies, when it protected German and French banks at the expense of the people of the south. Apparently pain and suffering was just fine for those that borrowed money foolishly, but not to be countenanced for the banks and companies that profited from that foolish lending. In the case of certain German companies who are absolutely f*ing notorious for it, they also bribed their way into creating those ludicrously expensive projects in the first place.

Given that, who would want to tie themselves to ever closer union with these people, who will happily throw you under the bus the moment things go south?

The EU could have been reformed, it could have accepted the need for change, but it bullheadedly refused to do so & Brexit is just one of the end results.
posted by pharm at 12:42 AM on June 24, 2016 [20 favorites]


Twine42 thanks for your honesty it's good to hear from all sides.
I'm a bit perplexed by your reasoning. Most of the things you list will not be effected positively by the UK leaving. France should definitely be processing refugees properly but how is severing ties with them going to motivate them to control the shared border better? You say the EU needed a shock to improve, and let's say this is the right shock, well the UK is now out so how would they benefit from these improvements?
posted by like_neon at 12:42 AM on June 24, 2016 [15 favorites]


(For the avoidance of doubt, I voted Remain for, amongst others, the many positive reasons that have been outlined here, but I didn’t like doing it.)
posted by pharm at 12:43 AM on June 24, 2016 [3 favorites]


Oh dear lord the Swiss embassy is sending calming emails to its citizens in the UK. They have a helpline.
posted by harujion at 12:44 AM on June 24, 2016 [14 favorites]


UK is now out so how would they benefit from these improvements?

We won’t, but if we hadn’t left, there would have been no real impetus for the EU to change.
posted by pharm at 12:45 AM on June 24, 2016


We won’t, but if we hadn’t left, there would have been no real impetus for the EU to change.

OK, stupid question here: What exactly is it that you want to change about the EU?
posted by sour cream at 12:47 AM on June 24, 2016


Like_neon - the UK won't benefit from the improvements (directly at least; who knows about indirectly) but I get to satisfy my conscience that I'm not part of that group benefiting.

Harujion - it dropped. It climbed. It looks relatively steady (or as steady as you can after only 45m). That's not a free fall.

Dysk - I'm sorry, I truly am. But that's one of the reasons I could never live and work somewhere where I have no voting rights.
posted by twine42 at 12:48 AM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


Oh dear lord the Swiss embassy is sending calming emails to its citizens in the UK. They have a helpline.

I wish I could count on any kind of support whatsoever from my embassy if I should need it with the changes that will come, but Denmark basically disowns anyone living outside the country for more than a few years. I'm rapidly running out of rights anywhere.
posted by Dysk at 12:48 AM on June 24, 2016 [6 favorites]


(Switzerland was never part of the EU)
posted by rum-soaked space hobo at 12:49 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


Dysk - I'm sorry, I truly am. But that's one of the reasons I could never live and work somewhere where I have no voting rights.

I had some voting rights here, actually - MEP and local elections. This vote just took that away from me.
posted by Dysk at 12:50 AM on June 24, 2016 [41 favorites]


Governor of Bank of England saying that there won't be a banking collapse, there really won't be a banking collapse, and just in case you were thinking there might be a banking collapse, there's an emergency fund of 250 billion pounds.

Why, were you thinking there might be a banking collapse?
posted by Devonian at 12:50 AM on June 24, 2016 [41 favorites]


sour cream: Oh, I don’t know. That they’re a bunch of neo-liberal shitheads who put German banks before the Greek and Spanish people? Have you *seen* the unemployment rate in Spain & Greece? Or maybe the way they put tariff barriers up against the poorest parts of the world (it took Kenya *decades* just to get the right to import flowers into the EU) which keeps them poor and subservient to multinational corporate interests? I have a little list, believe me.
posted by pharm at 12:51 AM on June 24, 2016 [4 favorites]


So, only half-facetious question: how can the U.K. now emulate what Norway does? They're not in the E.U. and somehow isn't collapsing.

Sign up to the European Economic Area, implement EU regulations and rules, pay costs for the EU, don't have a vote for anything in the EU.

Basically what we had, but without the special conditions like the rebate, or any input on what the rules are.
posted by MattWPBS at 12:52 AM on June 24, 2016 [19 favorites]


I believe Norway has to abide by the EU's rules on freedom of movement. The UK already has/had it *better* than Norway.
posted by My Dad at 12:54 AM on June 24, 2016 [8 favorites]


I voted because I believe that the way the EU works means that it won't ever change unless it has a massive shock. Maybe this will be that shock, but i doubt it.
Thing is, with the left thoroughly moribund and demoralised across Europe, the only political forces in a position to exploit this shock are those of the far right.
In a speech in Vienna last week at a meeting of rightwing, far-right and Eurosceptic parties convened under the motto “patriotic spring”, Le Pen said support for Brexit in the UK was one sign of a “new air” of patriotism sweeping Europe in what she called a “springtime of the people”.
European far right hails Britain's Brexit vote, Guardian (24 June 2016).
posted by Sonny Jim at 12:54 AM on June 24, 2016 [9 favorites]


Yeah, Norway's relationship with the EU is basically a study in how to make the maximum number of concessions for the minimum possible return. Why anyone would want to emulate it is beyond me.
posted by Dysk at 12:54 AM on June 24, 2016 [10 favorites]


“Wall Street Week” [Hulu]Saturday Night Live, 24 October 1987
posted by ob1quixote at 12:55 AM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


The pound against the dollar isn't too bad.
posted by Coda Tronca at 12:55 AM on June 24, 2016


YAY WE'RE FUCKED
posted by bumcivilian at 12:55 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


Caroline Lucas MP, interviewed on BBC TV:
I think this is an absolutely devastating result. Personally, I feel pretty heartbroken. It has revealed massive divisions within our country. There is such levels of alienation and anger and frustration which is real wake up call to Westminster. We have got here basically people rebelling against 98% of MPs.

The anger that we are hearing from around the country actually was less to do with EU per se and more to do with a sense of just having been un-heard, un-listened to for so many years.

We’re calling on all sides to come together to fix our democracy here in Britain – starting with electoral reform for the House of Commons. The democratic deficit will not be fixed by leaving the EU – we need to look closer to home too.
posted by asok at 12:57 AM on June 24, 2016 [18 favorites]


sour cream: Oh, I don’t know. That they’re a bunch of neo-liberal shitheads who put German banks before the Greek and Spanish people? Have you *seen* the unemployment rate in Spain & Greece? Or maybe the way they put tariff barriers up against the poorest parts of the world (it took Kenya *decades* just to get the right to import flowers into the EU) which keeps them poor and subservient to multinational corporate interests? I have a little list, believe me.

I see.
And Britain leaving the EU is going to change that exactly ... how?
posted by sour cream at 12:57 AM on June 24, 2016 [12 favorites]


Harujion - it dropped. It climbed. It looks relatively steady (or as steady as you can after only 45m). That's not a free fall.

Barclays is down 22%. That's a free fall. The major thing that's bringing the markets back up a little bit is that Cameron just stood up and promised to block the doorway for the next four months, essentially buying time.
posted by zachlipton at 12:58 AM on June 24, 2016 [5 favorites]


BBC: David Cameron to quit
posted by Joey Michaels at 12:59 AM on June 24, 2016


We have shot ourselves in the arse and it might not kill us but it’s going to hurt.
posted by misteraitch at 12:59 AM on June 24, 2016 [3 favorites]


We did it Patrick!
posted by Drinky Die at 12:59 AM on June 24, 2016 [4 favorites]


Unfortunately a good proportion of the UK public just voted to not do any emotional work in figuring out why we are in the mess we are in and instead decided to blame the other. Not entirely surprising, but disappointing nonetheless.
posted by asok at 1:00 AM on June 24, 2016 [19 favorites]


What it actually is is a neoliberal apparatus controlled by international bankers, administered in Brussels with no transparency whatsoever, which was set up post-WW-II by French bureaucrats. Precisely the above is a very different narrative, but it is an accurate paraphrase of Yanis Varoufakis...

also btw: Brexit would be the worst of all worlds, says Varoufakis

anyway, fwiw some selected tweets and RTs from @edwardnh: @ianbremmer... posted by kliuless at 1:01 AM on June 24, 2016 [31 favorites]


YEAH BENT BANANAS IN BUNCHES OF 4! #brexit #freedom

what do you mean they're 25% more expensive?
posted by davemee at 1:07 AM on June 24, 2016 [12 favorites]


I volunteered for Remain for 8 hours in various places around Southwark, London yesterday.

There were a lot of good conversations, smiles and suportive comments; both Lambeth and Southwark went over 70% for Remain.

There were a few dickheads.

In particular, one guy walked up to me and shouted "You should be ashamed of yourself! You're taking away our sovereignty!" He grabbed my Remain poster out of my hands, crumpled it up, screamed "Fuck off!" and threw it in my face, hard, from close range.

That guy is celebrating today.

The man who murdered Jo Cox is celebrating in his prison cell.

The EDL, Britain First, and the National Front are celebrating.

The country I thought I was part of, where I've lived since 1990, where I have spent over half my life, is over.
posted by Pallas Athena at 1:08 AM on June 24, 2016 [98 favorites]


From my FB feed:

The post war baby boomers - the most privileged generation ever in terms of benefits, pensions, job security and rights have sold all of us down the river.

Can't fault that analysis.
posted by asok at 1:10 AM on June 24, 2016 [66 favorites]


Governor of Bank of England saying that there won't be a banking collapse, there really won't be a banking collapse, and just in case you were thinking there might be a banking collapse, there's an emergency fund of 250 billion pounds.

Why, were you thinking there might be a banking collapse?


That strikes me as an incredibly prudent move, really. A firm signal that the BoE has the big artillery and isn't afraid to use it. A reminder to everyone that it isn't 2008, that they've learned from that, that they're ready to face a potential crisis. And by doing that, they make the crisis less likely.
posted by Pink Frost at 1:11 AM on June 24, 2016 [7 favorites]


Is it really a likely possibility that Northern Ireland will give up on Unionism and 400 years of sentiment, and abandon the UK for the Republic?

I shouldn't think so, but I wonder whether there will be new legs for the idea of independence? If the logic works for Scotland, why not for N.I.? You might try to develop an independent but co-operative position between a friendly independent Scotland and the Republic, all within the EU and detached from England.

That's a pretty sunny imaginative take on a severely problematic situation, of course.
posted by Segundus at 1:11 AM on June 24, 2016 [3 favorites]


The EDL, Britain First, and the National Front are celebrating.

This is true, but the referendum was also decided by disaffected former Labour voters. Ignoring that on this thread won't make it go away.
posted by Coda Tronca at 1:12 AM on June 24, 2016 [6 favorites]


The Day Today "Britain in times of crisis" link has been taken off YouTube. Just when the nation needs it most! Which leaves me only with this.
posted by Sonny Jim at 1:14 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


Shhh, Coda. Don't get in the way of people who need to believe this is all down to racists. :(
posted by twine42 at 1:16 AM on June 24, 2016 [5 favorites]


The EDL, Britain First, and the National Front are celebrating.

This is true, but the referendum was also decided by disaffected former Labour voters. Ignoring that on this thread won't make it go away.


The groups have a lot of overlap. This is one reason I don't like calling racists "hard right". More often than not, they're not particularly right wing at all, they're protectionist, isolationist, sort-of social democrats, often. Even UKIP - with its hyper-local campaign strategy - positions itself as left wing (and sometimes fields former Labour candidates) in parts of the North. That such groups might attract former Labour voters is no surprise.
posted by Dysk at 1:16 AM on June 24, 2016 [9 favorites]




HOW AGES VOTED (YouGov poll)
18-24: 75% Remain
25-49: 56% Remain 50-64:
44% Remain
65+: 39% Remain

My colleague called this "generational terrorism".
posted by harujion at 1:19 AM on June 24, 2016 [59 favorites]


Pallas Athena, thank you for fighting the good fight - I didn't get a vote, so I'm humbled that so many worked tirelessly for what I believe would have been the right thing. And I'm sorry.
posted by harujion at 1:21 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


when it protected German and French banks at the expense of the people

TARP: A Love Story
posted by kliuless at 1:23 AM on June 24, 2016


You get that disaffected former Labour voters and racists arent mutually exclusive, right?
posted by threetwentytwo at 1:23 AM on June 24, 2016 [5 favorites]


" Unless the UK decides to cut you a deal better than the EU. Which is kind of the whole point."

Right, but as things stand, in terms of where are the fewest barriers and the most people, we would prefer to be in Ireland where we can employ people we relate to who have freedom to move around Europe. We're a services company and who can work where is a big thing for us. The most an open UK can ever offer us is the entire UK.
posted by i_am_joe's_spleen at 1:24 AM on June 24, 2016 [4 favorites]


You get that disaffected former Labour voters and racists arent mutually exclusive, right?

The argument runs that they have had racist attitudes stoked up and amplified in them by UKIP as a result of being betrayed by the hideous neoliberal Blairite Labour Party over the last 20 years.
posted by Coda Tronca at 1:30 AM on June 24, 2016


I feel really bad for all the remain campaign people handing out leaflets yesterday at Canada Water station and elsewhere whom I ignored and walked past like a stupid, self-absorbed commuter. I wish I'd said something—thanks for all your hard work; I voted remain this morning on the way to work; fingers crossed for the result—but I didn't. I can only imagine how crushed all those idealistic, overwhelmingly young volunteers are feeling right now.
posted by Sonny Jim at 1:30 AM on June 24, 2016 [3 favorites]




I'm with you I_am_joe's_spleen. Our company is based in London, but we are pan-european, and rely on easy transit for all kinds of workers. Just looking into how feasible it is to move us all to Germany
posted by stevedawg at 1:35 AM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


English being the lingua franca of Europe now, the irony is that we don't need to be based in England any more.
posted by i_am_joe's_spleen at 1:38 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


For perspective: The 250 billion £ being ready to aid the financial institutions is worth roughly 27 years of EU membership fees for the UK

That link is comparing apples with oranges though - the 250bn will presumably be emergency liquidity assistance, where a central bank lends money to commercial banks who would otherwise have trouble getting short-term funds. Thus stopping panic and bank runs. It's not that the BoE would literally spend the 250bn and get nothing back.

[Though certainly, the losses in the stock market and in the drop of the value of the pound would no doubt make up for many years of membership fees]
posted by Pink Frost at 1:39 AM on June 24, 2016 [4 favorites]


The newspapers won. The fuckers. Stoking 'it's the immigrants fault' for years. If Cameron forced the implementation of The Leveson Enquiry this could have been somewhat quelled, but no. Freedom of the press and all that, no responsibility.

Cowardly, lying fuckers.
posted by bumcivilian at 1:39 AM on June 24, 2016 [31 favorites]


Same as SteveDawg and I_am_joe's_spleen. European HQ, office full of European ex-pats and UK people. General feeling in the office is that there's going to be evaluation of other European offices for HQ, and probably no more functions moved here.
posted by MattWPBS at 1:40 AM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


BBC reports that people driving past Boris Johnson's house this morning have been shouting unbroadcastable things in the direction of his front door. He emerged to a chorus of boos before ducking into a car.
posted by zachlipton at 1:40 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


BBC reporting that an angry, hostile crowd has formed outside Boris Johnson's house in London ...
posted by Sonny Jim at 1:40 AM on June 24, 2016


I'm sure that bias will improve with the removal of EU rules on media ownership. Oh no, sorry, the opposite of that.
posted by jaduncan at 1:40 AM on June 24, 2016 [3 favorites]


fuck
posted by pixie at 1:41 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


.
posted by Pendragon at 1:43 AM on June 24, 2016


BBC reporting that an angry, hostile crowd has formed outside Boris Johnson's house in London ...

And here's a pic

I would call him a traitor of London but that balloon has always been in it only for himself.
posted by like_neon at 1:44 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


Screw the racists (and I can't believe that >%50 of Britain's population is racist), but the way the EU operates is simply not democratic, so leaving seems only rational. Not a guarantee of success, of course.
posted by pixelrevolt at 1:47 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


My eternal respect and gratitude to the first, second, and third people who egg Boris.
posted by Quagkapi at 1:49 AM on June 24, 2016 [5 favorites]


And here's a pic

Are those two guys on his balcony, or the one next door? I hate him as much as the next person but breaking into his house isn't really cricket is it?
posted by tinkletown at 1:49 AM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


GBP is now at a low not seen since March this year.
The FTSE 100 is at a low not seen since the 17th.

I repeat my comment about things not being in free fall...
posted by twine42 at 1:49 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]




Calling people racist because they voted leave is a bit much. And 37.5% voted leave, not 52 %
posted by Pendragon at 1:51 AM on June 24, 2016 [3 favorites]


I voted to remain. This is a horrific result and I think I'm learning what it means to grieve.

I want to say 'this is not my country any more' but I don't feel that's the right way to put it. But it's not a country I want to be a part of. I feel like I've woken up in a fictional place. 'The forces of darkness have won' is something I expect to read in a book, not wake up and find that I'm living through.

And the worst of it is that in a few months or years' time, I don't think I'll be able to look back at this comment and think it was hyperbole.
posted by dowcrag at 1:52 AM on June 24, 2016 [7 favorites]




if we hadn’t left, there would have been no real impetus for the EU to change.
Now that you're leaving, how much influence will you have to make the EU change? How about ZERO? How about LESS THAN ZERO, as in "well, we're glad they're gone so they can't get in out way..." Yep, you handed neoliberals in Europe a victory at the same time you handed racists in Britain a victory.

the EU operates is simply not democratic
It's impossible for me to believe that considering the Economic influence of London, that the "not democratic" was at least A LITTLE BIT the UK's fault?

And just as it happens every time a 25% voter turnout in midterms hands America's Congress to the Republicans, if you DIDN'T vote, you damned well supported whoever won. Thanks for nothing.
posted by oneswellfoop at 1:54 AM on June 24, 2016 [20 favorites]


It is frankly rich that British people have the gall to attack the EU over "not being democratic":

  • Unelected second chamber.
  • Featuring members of one particular religion.
  • "National" parliament without jurisdiction over various parts of the country.
  • First-past-the-post resulting in governments elected by 25% of the electorate having total power.

    And you know what? It works fine. It muddles along. It even changes over time as our needs change.

    "Undemocratic" is a weasel word when applied to the EU. All human institutions are flawed. The "undemocratic" flaws in the EU are the result of nation states wanting to keep sovereignty, not some conspiracy.

    ...

    Fuck, I'm rambling, because I'm so sad and cross. Justify your fucking racism any way like. I'm out.

  • posted by alasdair at 1:55 AM on June 24, 2016 [78 favorites]


    With you there Dowcrag. Feels like a terrible mistake has been made and I'm so ashamed to be British. And there's some people celebrating!
    Meanwhile my Irish, French and Italian pals who live here are all saying variations of 'wow, this feels weird, I feel oddly unwelcome' and worrying about their jobs/lack of jobs/houses they've bought/were thinking of buying.
    A big disaster for most people under 40 this.
    posted by stevedawg at 1:55 AM on June 24, 2016 [3 favorites]


    The massive propaganda apparatus which shores up this neoliberal lie wasn't seriously countered because the fear which they use on *us* is the fear that rocking the austerity boat will cause some kind of collapse. It doesn't have to be austerity, it can be a wealth tax and UBI.

    -The Sandworm Solution
    -The Myth of Austerity and Growth
    posted by kliuless at 1:56 AM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


    If anyone's interested in a legal analysis, my former employers have a briefing here. Targeted at their corporate clients, obviously, but an easy read and covers things like trade, IP law, environmental law, the process for leaving, etc. Also discusses the future relationship between UK and EU, whether on a Norwegian model or something different.
    posted by Pink Frost at 1:59 AM on June 24, 2016 [8 favorites]


    Ohhhhh for fuck's sake. Shut it down forever!
    posted by lucidium at 2:01 AM on June 24, 2016 [3 favorites]


    Are those two guys on his balcony, or the one next door? I hate him as much as the next person but breaking into his house isn't really cricket is it?

    I'm aware the following views aren't the best of me.

    I don't know. You should ask the EU national friends of mine who have no idea what will happen with the rest of their life, or the entire population of the UK having less money. It's not less harsh when people are forcibly evicted from their house due to the bedroom tax, or whatever comes next due to the entirely predictable welfare cuts to come with lower tax receipts. Boris having to put up with shit for having cynically (and remember, he also had a column on file for if he decided to campaign for the EU) lied about his own views and played along with racists seems relatively small in comparison. One person has already died from the kind of bullshit that he has sold. I hope that he regrets his own decision and the damage that he has done for the rest of his life.
    posted by jaduncan at 2:02 AM on June 24, 2016 [10 favorites]


    A friend cycling to work in London reports that sne was caught up in a crowd of other cyclists who were spontaneously surrounding Boris' car and booing him.

    I doubt he'd do much better up here.
    posted by Devonian at 2:06 AM on June 24, 2016 [3 favorites]


    Britain has not voted to leave the EU. England (outside London) and Wales have voted to leave the EU.

    Hello from Scotland, where 62% of votes were for remain, the SNP may seek their own deal with the EU and a social media campaign for a second independence referendum has started. #indyref2

    And then there's Northern Ireland, where 55.8% of votes were for remain, and Sinn Fein's Martin McGuinness has called for a vote on joining the Irish Republic, while there are concerns about what Brexit will mean for the Good Friday Agreement.
    posted by Vortisaur at 2:07 AM on June 24, 2016 [8 favorites]


    The post war baby boomers - the most privileged generation ever in terms of benefits, pensions, job security and rights have sold all of us down the river.

    They always do. Over and over and over again.

    Not sure whether Brexit will be that great for their pensions. Or the value of their houses. Or their chances of not being eaten by marauding gangs of neo-nazis.
    posted by lucien_reeve at 2:08 AM on June 24, 2016 [19 favorites]


    sorry, everyone. I did what I could. It wasn't enough

    My heart is with you and your friends, and I'm with you in grief. But - I don't accept your apology, because I won't lose hope in any country with such people as you in it, and I won't be upset that you (and Pallas) put all your great effort into that cause we believe in.

    I think you did well, and what you did was not an effort wasted, even if the result didn't go our way. And I will have cause to not despair, because I have your example to live up to.

    So I'll say that my heart has its own sovereignty; I refuse it to be diminished because of this one piece of tawdry politics, but it grows greater and more rich because of the work and the example of those like you.
    posted by the quidnunc kid at 2:17 AM on June 24, 2016 [52 favorites]


    Having a national holiday for 50% of the people in the country seems like a step towards mending those broken bridges in our society.
    posted by vbfg at 2:17 AM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


    Britain has not voted to leave the EU. England (outside London) and Wales have voted to leave the EU.
    And by the nature of Democracy in a not-totally-homogenous nation, they voted to drag you away with them. I know how it feels; as a resident of California since I've been able to vote, I was dragged along when California's Initiative System committed us to some appalling things, like Prop. 13's defunding of education, the Three Strikes Rule that overfilled our prisons and banning Same-Sex Marriage. Too bad you don't have a Supreme Court like the US does to decide we've democratically screwed up.

    But if you think the neoliberal "austerity" is bad now, wait 'til you see how the surviving Tories handle the instant recession your anti-neoliberal Brexit votes helped cause. Here's a tip: the Lesser of Two Evils is still LESS Evil.
    posted by oneswellfoop at 2:18 AM on June 24, 2016 [11 favorites]


    GBP/USD back at 1.39.

    It's gone from 1.40 at the start of the week, to 1.49 on the back of expected Remain victory, crashing down to 1.33 on the Leave result, and back to 1.39 after Cameron's resignation (and I guess certainty).

    So basically it's back to where it was on Monday, for now. Just via a very convoluted route.
    posted by plep at 2:21 AM on June 24, 2016 [6 favorites]


    And America's Most Evil Alternative Ever, Donald Trump, had had no opinion on Brexit before, but now that it has passed, he loves it!!!
    posted by oneswellfoop at 2:22 AM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


    I've been at work all day, and my British coworkers were a stark contrast, with the younger, happy go lucky guy who refused to really accept that there was any tinge of race involved in the issue, and the slightly older British teacher with a kid, who was, as she said, gutted by the result. She's more of a world traveler type, with British friends living all around Europe, while the other teacher frequently talks about his rough upbringing in public housing. As much as the older teacher would rail about the idiocy of the decision, the younger one would only keep repeating "I can see both sides" but I a way that was pretty obvious he hadn't really given much thought to the outcome.

    For myself, I'm pretty stunned, and a lot more worried about the US elections in November. Stupid tends to build momentum, and there's just been a giant surge in stupid today. I wonder how many of the people who voted leave out of a sense of "lets burn it all down" and are now just realizing how dumb they've been. I've heard enough people claiming they'll vote for Trump for basically the same reason, and it's terrifying.

    Either way, this is a fucking terrifying development. As I sww mentioned, no, the EU isn't Star Trek, but dammit, it was a step in the right direction. Nations coming together and finding common cause, building for the greater good, that's how we pull ourselves out of the muck. Nationalism and fear of the other is just the muck trying to pull us back down, keeping us from the better, freer future. There's no purpose in where we're born, no divine ordination. We are born where we are born out of a fluke of luck and a preponderance of chance. For those born in bounty, building walls and denying the same opportunity to others is something that, not too long ago, seemed like it might someday be done away with. With any luck, this is a blip, an aberration, with Britain quickly finding itself on the wrong side of social and political evolution, sheepishly admitting it's error, and rejoining.
    posted by Ghidorah at 2:24 AM on June 24, 2016 [35 favorites]


    > With any luck, this is a blip, an aberration, with Britain quickly finding itself on the wrong side of social and political evolution, sheepishly admitting it's error, and rejoining.

    The best, best, best chance of that is for a new deal with Europe and a new referendum before the Article 50 button is pressed. Otherwise this is a done deal for a very long time.

    Europe has places to be. It cannot keep stopping for the same passenger to get on and off the bus.
    posted by vbfg at 2:28 AM on June 24, 2016 [6 favorites]


    Hopefully this should be a wake up to Germany that they need to change their stance to Greece/Spain/Italy and start cutting them better deals.
    posted by PenDevil at 2:29 AM on June 24, 2016 [3 favorites]


    How many metaphorical Wake Up Calls have you ever seen that have actually woken anybody up?
    posted by Grangousier at 2:30 AM on June 24, 2016 [49 favorites]


    I'm considering doing a little currency speculation. Like, for example, "what can I still buy with this pound coin?"

    This morning the answer was a consolation Cornish pasty breakfast that, for the moment, is made in Cornwall.
    posted by vbfg at 2:34 AM on June 24, 2016


    Speaking of Cornwall
    posted by like_neon at 2:36 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    This probably sums up the EU referendum vote:

    https://c1.staticflickr.com/1/26/54129281_25d22f9fba_b.jpg
    posted by pharm at 2:36 AM on June 24, 2016 [6 favorites]


    Wow, the Brexit camp are still shouting at us to "stop scaremongering!"

    Surely once it's actually happened we call that "reporting", no?
    posted by rum-soaked space hobo at 2:39 AM on June 24, 2016 [42 favorites]


    Ghidorah: "Stupid tends to build momentum, and there's just been a giant surge in stupid today"

    QFT
    posted by chavenet at 2:40 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]




    "....the younger generation has lost the right to live and work in 27 other countries. We will never know the extent of the lost opportunities, friendships, marriages, and experiences we will be denied."

    Those sentences really struck me, as someone who spent ~4 years in Britain (one in Scotland, three in England) in the early-to-mid 2000s. People were forming those relationships all around me, and over the decade since I left, my facebook wall's filled up with news and pictures of weddings and babies and relocations and research collaborations, many of which might never have come into being had we not been living in that moment of unprecedented freedom of movement. Many of my non-British friends and classmates and co-workers ended up staying on in the UK, building lives and careers and families there, and in a slightly alternate timeline I might have done in the same. I'm sad and scared for them today, and mourning the sense of possibility we lived in then.
    posted by karayel at 2:42 AM on June 24, 2016 [99 favorites]


    The closing off of Britain, the loss of freedom of travel, work, and residence will only give the ignorance and close-mindedness that won out today more time to fester.
    posted by Ghidorah at 2:48 AM on June 24, 2016 [11 favorites]


    I want to say 'this is not my country any more' but I don't feel that's the right way to put it. But it's not a country I want to be a part of. I feel like I've woken up in a fictional place. 'The forces of darkness have won' is something I expect to read in a book, not wake up and find that I'm living through.

    As an Australian, that's exactly how I felt after finding out that the Howard Government's then-new "anti-terrorism" laws, which allow "terrorist suspects" to be locked up for weeks without being charged and make it a crime to reveal that this has happened, were supported by 2/3 of the population.

    You have all my sympathy.

    I wish I could reassure you that the feeling goes away, but it really doesn't. You just get used to having it.
    posted by flabdablet at 2:51 AM on June 24, 2016 [9 favorites]


    All in all, this is a fascinating time to be reading a series of novels about how fascism comes to the UK.
    posted by duffell at 2:54 AM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


    I wonder whether freedom of movement / immigration isn't a bit of a canard on both sides. Surely in negotiations with the EU, they will demand the same (or similar) freedom of movement as part of belonging to whatever trading bloc we apply for. In negotiations as asymmetrical as the ones coming up, the weaker party just has to roll over. And membership of that trading bloc will also have membership fees. We haven't voted to give up migration, just citizenship rights; we haven't voted away EU regulations (which we'll have to conform to), just the ability to affect those regulations; we haven't voted away the need to pay money to the EU, just the rebate and any subsidies that EU membership might have entitled us to (and which many of the areas that just voted to leave relied on).

    In this morning's sense of intemperateness, I do wonder if we should give such power to people with no entry criteria other than the ability to spell "X". But that would take me to somewhere even worse, so I should probably give it up.

    But maybe we should see what the Tories' crack team of political and diplomatic geniuses manage to negotiate for us with the EU. Given how understanding they were towards Greece.
    posted by Grangousier at 3:00 AM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


    The boomers really are hellbent-for-leather on taking the whole goddamn shooting match down with them when they go, aren't they?
    posted by enn at 3:00 AM on June 24, 2016 [25 favorites]


    I think their motto is "apres moi, le deluge."
    posted by Justinian at 3:11 AM on June 24, 2016 [18 favorites]


    You would think that Boris Johnson, as past mayor for a city that relies on immigrants across all classes for labour and a financial services industry that needs access to large markets to function, would be waving the Remain flag the highest. You would think...
    posted by PenDevil at 3:13 AM on June 24, 2016 [5 favorites]


    Boris' decision to back Brexit has to be one of the most cynical moves, ever, in modern politics. As a mayor of London, he cannot possibly believe it was right. He wants PM. That's all.
    posted by Quagkapi at 3:15 AM on June 24, 2016 [29 favorites]


    Boris has always been in it for Boris & decided to through his lot in with Leave because that gave him the best chance of climbing the greasy pole. After all, if Remain won he’d always get another chance.
    posted by pharm at 3:15 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    To Boris Johnson, anything that doesn't sate the immediate desires of Boris Johnson might as well not exist.
    posted by Grangousier at 3:15 AM on June 24, 2016 [4 favorites]




    This is a travesty and I genuinely feel bad about it. I was watching some grinning British commentator on a financial news network this morning crowing about how everything would be back to normal soon and that Article 50 will probably never happen. This is just "a message" to the EU and certainly "another referendum" will be had after the EU concedes to British demands. I feel like that guy was living in a fantasy world.
    posted by xyzzy at 3:18 AM on June 24, 2016 [3 favorites]


    He sounds a bit like the guy who voted to leave but genuinely seems to have believed his vote wouldn't count. And is now terrified.

    It might have seemed like a dream but it was all too real.

    FWIW, I have chosen to blame Angus Deayton for sniffing coke off the tits of a Sun / NOTW employee. Without that there's no Boris in his current form.
    posted by vbfg at 3:22 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    I think we all need to take a deep breath. This is awful, terrible news but the country is not going to crumble overnight. Now, it might crumble over the next few years, but it's not happening this weekend.

    Nothing is happening this weekend. Cameron won't be in a position to make anything happen until he leaves in October. No one is going to be in a position to make anything happen while a general election palaver is underway.

    The government has failed the UK massively. This is the result of years of avoiding the hard work of actually listening to their citizens who were instead lured by easy and wrong finger-pointing.

    But instead of looking for ways to run away, can the Remain voters please use this as a wake up call of our own to unify and try and dampen this horrific tide we see before us? We can unify. The Leave group are a mess of headless chickens. And no, I don't know what the answer is. But I don't think the answer is dismissing a big portion of the population as a bunch of racist idiots.
    posted by like_neon at 3:26 AM on June 24, 2016 [5 favorites]


    > while a general election palaver is underway

    Is a GE confirmed? Conservative leadership contest, yes, but another GE, within 18 months of the last?
    posted by Quagkapi at 3:29 AM on June 24, 2016


    Which General Election is this? My understanding is the PM is resigning. That's a Tory party leadership election, not a general election.

    (Which will at least give us the same people in power that were undermining Brown as an "unelected" Prime Minister).
    posted by vbfg at 3:30 AM on June 24, 2016


    I sometimes wonder how different UK politics would have been if we had proportional representation for the past forty years. But I guess this referendum shows that the British people are perfectly capable of shooting themselves in the foot even without the distorting effect of FPTP.
    posted by Bloxworth Snout at 3:30 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    Yes, xyzzy. If anything would cement the feeling that the opinions of the disenfranchised don't matter it would be the referendum counting for nothing. We avoided riots on the streets as they got the result they wanted this time.

    like_neon, one of the problems is the uncertainty for all UK citizens working in Europe and all EU citizens in the UK, as well as all the businesses that rely on the EU.

    Healing would be ideal, but that would require some degree of humility on the part of the Leavers as well as the ability to forgive on the part of the Remainers.

    It's a mess.
    posted by asok at 3:31 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    Sturgeon giving a speech right now in Edinburgh. And all of a sudden it's on. Indy Ref 2: Election Boogaloo.
    posted by Len at 3:31 AM on June 24, 2016 [7 favorites]


    Louisa Compton: With leave voters in Manchester for BBCNews -most told us they woke up thinking "what have I done?" & didn't actually expect the uk to leave

    I sincerely hope I'm overestimating the number of "just for the lulz" or "shake up the system, man" Trump supporters.
    posted by duffell at 3:32 AM on June 24, 2016 [16 favorites]


    I stand corrected, not a GE. But still, it will be a clusterfuck searching for a new leader.

    like_neon, one of the problems is the uncertainty for all UK citizens working in Europe and all EU citizens in the UK, as well as all the businesses that rely on the EU.

    I agree, also horrible. I work in a small company that relies on EU clients with lots of EU employees. I am going to do whatever I can. Still learning what there is to do, but there must be something. No policies have yet been created. I know I won't be alone in being hyper vigilant about how to affect those policies once drafting starts underway.
    posted by like_neon at 3:35 AM on June 24, 2016


    I live in England. If I moved to Scotland tomorrow (for the sake of hypothetical argument), what are the chances of:
    1. Scotland having a second independence referendum that ends in a 'yes' vote;


    99%. Nicola Sturgeon's just giving a speech about it now.

    2. The new independent Scotland remaining a member of the EU;

    Remaining, 0%. Rejoining, almost certainly, but it'll take a while.

    Unless they do a ROC/PRC-style switcheroo in which the EU chooses to pretend that the UK separated from Scotland, and Scotland continues as "the UK" in EU terms... which sounds like the type of thing Brussels would go in for, actually.

    3. That country allowing me to become a citizen, rather than remaining as an English and non-EU citizen?

    Tricky. Bad times for refugees of all stripes, these days.
    posted by Vetinari at 3:37 AM on June 24, 2016 [4 favorites]


    The saying is "if you think Boris Johnson is on your side, you're missing something." Boris has no ideology other than the political rise of Boris. He'll say anything he discovers the voters want to hear. This can be useful, as he can be swayed to your side. It can be devastating, as he'll leave you at the altar.

    All that said, the waffling and equivocation among every Tory who takes the podium now leaves us with possibly the biggest constitutional crisis since the Abdication.
    posted by rum-soaked space hobo at 3:38 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    But instead of looking for ways to run away, can the Remain voters please use this as a wake up call of our own to unify and try and dampen this horrific tide we see before us?

    Can those of us who'd settled in the UK but didn't get a vote run away at least? (Not sure where we'd run TO at this point, but we've had the Welcome rug swept out from under us.)
    posted by harujion at 3:40 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    Boris is Aaron Burr (only less charismatic). He has no beliefs. He just wants to be in the room where it happens. And he'd probably kill to get it!
    posted by harujion at 3:43 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    Please stay. Know that there are people who stand with you. Quite a lot of people actually! Do not let this outcome bully you into leaving. That's what they want.
    posted by like_neon at 3:44 AM on June 24, 2016


    Just wanted to thank the vote leave team for encouraging this kind of thing, which is a lovely throw-back to our nationalist and violent times in the 1970s.

    Perhaps I'm wrong. Perhaps the football is still on. But I find the prevalence of this kind of iconography, in particular demographic areas, quite chilling. That we've now 'shaken up' the bottle and given permission for this kind of communication all seems to be related.

    Well played for shaking things up. I'm starting to fear for *my* life, and I'm a white british heterosexual male. At least we still have police services in cas... oh 50% cutbacks? Winner all round! Those remaining police are going to be tied up as Gove and Johnson's personal bodyguard.
    posted by davemee at 3:46 AM on June 24, 2016 [4 favorites]


    Can those of us who'd settled in the UK but didn't get a vote run away at least? (Not sure where we'd run TO at this point, but we've had the Welcome rug swept out from under us.)

    Please stay. Know that there are people who stand with you. Quite a lot of people actually! Do not let this outcome bully you into leaving. That's what they want.


    Please do whatever you need to do to be safe.
    posted by duffell at 3:46 AM on June 24, 2016 [5 favorites]


    "Papers, ye fecking coont" soon to be heard throughout Britain
    posted by sidereal at 3:46 AM on June 24, 2016 [3 favorites]


    If anything would cement the feeling that the opinions of the disenfranchised don't matter it would be the referendum counting for nothing.

    Those that voted are not disenfranchised. Those of us who are disenfranchised - don't have the right to vote - are the immigrants here. Our opinions clearly count for nothing, and implementing the result of the referendum would cement that.

    Refusing to implement brexit would show that the views of the enfranchised count for nothing. Which is quite different, given that it is in fact the enfranchised making the very clear statement that disenfranchised groups in the UK (the vast majority of whom a have no voting rights due to being immigrants) whose views, interests, and lives are worthless.
    posted by Dysk at 3:48 AM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


    winterhill - pretty sure the stance on Scottish citizenship at the last referendum from the current government was 'anyone who lives in Scotland who already has British citizenship, plus anyone who lives here from the EU who wants to apply for it'.
    posted by Happy Dave at 3:49 AM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


    Well that didn't take long for me to get sick of Remain's belly up attitude.
    posted by like_neon at 3:52 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    winterhill - pretty sure the stance on Scottish citizenship at the last referendum from the current government was 'anyone who lives in Scotland who already has British citizenship, plus anyone who lives here from the EU who wants to apply for it'.

    Yep, pretty sure Edinburgh will be a substantially larger city by the time the next Scottish referendum comes round. Which will be very soon.
    posted by brilliantmistake at 3:54 AM on June 24, 2016 [4 favorites]


    Fair point Dysk, I mean the people who feel disenfranchised but are actually incredibly privileged and lucky, rather than the people who are actually disenfranchised.

    On the subject of Indyref2, there was a study by the LSE that reported that there was an effect due to No voters last time that had affinity with the statement 'I am British' rather than 'I am Scottish'. Whether they would have more affinity with 'I am an EU Citizen' or 'I am British (where the UK leader is on the far right and wants to leave the EU)' is an interesting question.
    posted by asok at 4:04 AM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


    Regions with the biggest votes for Leave are also the most economically dependent on the EU

    The same dynamic exists in the US; the areas with the most dependence on the federal government are also the most likely to vote for the party which claims to want to shrink the federal government.
    posted by Slothrup at 4:06 AM on June 24, 2016 [12 favorites]


    EU referendum: Boris Johnson coy on future after PM quits.
    Mr Johnson, installed as the bookies' favourite to succeed David Cameron, is expected to talk to the media later.
    Boris the fucking buffoon Johnson as PM. Truly the darkest fucking timeline.
    posted by Talez at 4:09 AM on June 24, 2016 [5 favorites]


    I gotta be honest, I thought it would be close, but I really didn't think Leave would win. Now my Facebook is a series of sad UK-born friends, friends and family who moved there for jobs or love and they are uncertain what happens now.

    My SIL was thinking of moving back home to Canada after the last election, so I'm wondering if that went from "probably" to "yup, gonna do it."
    posted by Kitteh at 4:10 AM on June 24, 2016


    So if Scotland declares independence, wouldn't the resulting UK be that much more conservative?
    posted by octothorpe at 4:11 AM on June 24, 2016


    Some interesting result maps from the BBC.
    posted by antiwiggle at 4:12 AM on June 24, 2016


    Boris the fucking buffoon Johnson as PM. Truly the darkest fucking timeline

    The darkest timeline is if Trump wins in November too. Can you imagine those state visits?
    posted by Elementary Penguin at 4:13 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    So if Scotland declares independence, wouldn't the resulting UK be that much more conservative?

    England will be renamed Toryhampton.
    posted by duffell at 4:15 AM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


    MPs submit Corbyn no confidence motion. If accepted it would be followed by a secret ballot of Labour MPs on Tuesday.

    Hold onto your butts.
    posted by like_neon at 4:16 AM on June 24, 2016 [6 favorites]


    octothorpe: Yes, very much so. The SNP holds about 56 seats. Without those, there’s no way the current Labour movement can hope to hold power.
    posted by pharm at 4:16 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    Boy, did I pick a bad day to quit my job with nothing else lined up.

    Time to look for work north of the border, I think.
    posted by Acey at 4:16 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    So if Scotland declares independence, wouldn't the resulting UK be that much more conservative?

    For the time being.

    But political outlook depends on cultural and social identity. Their will be a transition from UK and British to England and English, a lot of reevaluation and reimagining who we are. With the UK gone what will our history mean to us? What is the difference to being English and not British? It is a process which will take years but will deeply change how we think and talk about our country.
    posted by Emma May Smith at 4:17 AM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


    Please stay. Know that there are people who stand with you. Quite a lot of people actually! Do not let this outcome bully you into leaving. That's what they want.

    Well they'll get it - they're not changing the rules for us now, but when they do, one of us will have to earn £35k to be allowed to remain. £35,000. That is not money I can make - possibly ever. And it's certainly not money I can gamble our future on maybe not needing to be allowed to keep living here.
    posted by harujion at 4:17 AM on June 24, 2016 [9 favorites]


    Parliament website crashed due to huge interest in second referendum poll. The second referendum that Farage claimed would be necessary yesterday, but no doubt has conveniently forgotten about now.
    posted by asok at 4:21 AM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]




    What are the chances this leads to special discussions between the UK and EU to address some of the most serious grievances, allowing the UK government to say they don't have to leave now because they forced satisfactory change on Brussels?

    I mean, I'm sure those talks are/will be happening, but what are the chances it succeeds?
    posted by GhostintheMachine at 4:22 AM on June 24, 2016 [3 favorites]


    England will be renamed Toryhampton

    Not all of England:

    London remain 59.9%
    Rest of England leave 57%
    posted by Mister Bijou at 4:22 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    This petition to have another go has crashed the government website.
    But I'm wondering if they don't have a different problem now.

    The Referendum is non-binding. To exit they need to pass a motion in parliament to implement Article 50 (I think, anyway). That's going to need a majority vote of MPs and then go through lords and get a majority there.
    posted by Just this guy, y'know at 4:23 AM on June 24, 2016 [3 favorites]


    Ah, already I'm seeing (from US folks on FB and Twitter) who don't understand how expensive it is to emigrate: "But why wouldn't UK people just move to here or Canada?"
    posted by Kitteh at 4:24 AM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


    Ghost: small. Having had the referendum, the UK probably has to leave the EU as it’s currently constituted. However, there’s nothing stopping the EU/UK governments cooking up a “special relationship” to smooth things over. We’ll have to wait and see.
    posted by pharm at 4:24 AM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]




    It’s interesting (to me!) that of the Northern cities, the majority Leave ones were Birmingham and Sheffield. Why those two? Manchester has a similar demographic to Birmingham & strongly voted Remain. Liverpool, Leeds, York & Newcastle also voted Remain.

    I can sort of see Sheffield - it’s a city that has never really recovered from the collapse of the steel industry - but why Birmingham?
    posted by pharm at 4:27 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    MPs submit Corbyn no confidence motion. If accepted it would be followed by a secret ballot of Labour MPs on Tuesday.

    At a time when everyone is talking about the importance of and need for unity, the Labour party goes and does this. Whoever ends up leading the party, remember this moment - they are putting their political career above any sense of political stability and any hope of a meaningful challenge to this result. That it will almost certainly represent a shift rightward, back toward Blairite New Labour, crushes any chance of anything even remotely approximating the lexit so many have been crowing for.
    posted by Dysk at 4:28 AM on June 24, 2016 [10 favorites]


    Corbyn was bloody awful on R4 this morning. If he’s like that at the GE than Labour are utterly stuffed.
    posted by pharm at 4:28 AM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


    A song for this Friday morning.

    I was honestly expecting this.
    posted by Talez at 4:29 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    To be fair, Corbyn is the worst person for Labour unity. He had to be practically dragged by horses to support Remain.
    posted by like_neon at 4:29 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    Whoever ends up leading the party, remember this moment - they are putting their political career above any sense of political stability and any hope of a meaningful challenge to this result.

    The people responsible are:

    Proposed by: Rt Hon Dame Margaret Hodge MP

    Seconded by: Ann Coffey MP

    posted by lucien_reeve at 4:30 AM on June 24, 2016


    jinx! That wasn’t a reply to your comment Dysk.

    However, yes: if Scotland is going to Leave then I can’t see how a Corbynite Labour party has a path to power. They can cede to either a Blairite left or Labour will spend a generation in the wilderness. Am I wrong?
    posted by pharm at 4:31 AM on June 24, 2016


    I can sort of see Sheffield - it’s a city that has never really recovered from the collapse of the steel industry - but why Birmingham?

    The Midlands was one of the hardest hit areas in the most recent economic downturn. Unemployment in particular has been high compared to the national average. And then there's the fact that it's so often ignored - too far south to be even notionally part of any "northern powerhouse" strategy, too far north to benefit much from the London wealth. Couple that with vast deprived areas and a stupendously expensive and fancy city centre, and you have a powder keg of resentment.
    posted by Dysk at 4:32 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    +250% spike in "what happens if we leave the EU" in the past hour

    WHAT IS THIS? I DON'T EVEN?
    posted by Talez at 4:33 AM on June 24, 2016 [14 favorites]


    So far there are discussions on all three of the regions that voted majority remain to leave the UK.
    Scotland, NI and London

    Maybe we could all get together and form a separate country.
    Or maybe we can stay the UK since we've got London, Edinburgh and Belfast and the rest can just be Wales.
    posted by Just this guy, y'know at 4:33 AM on June 24, 2016 [10 favorites]


    Please explain why there have been a million people on the dole while millions of immigrants can come here and get jobs? No one has done this.

    I'm just an American, but I will try.

    1. Rich-as-Croesus CEOs cut jobs that actually pay a living wage, out of a means to drive up their own profits and thus earn their own massive salaries.
    2. However, at the same time they expand jobs with shitty pay so they can claim "but we're also creating jobs!.....Okay, those jobs pay shit and if you are a Briton with even a modest lifestyle you wouldn't be able to live on the salary, because we only pay pennies, but we're still creating jobs!"
    3. Britons who own a home or have a family - or both - consider these jobs, realize that they would go bankrupt on the pay, and turn them down, staying on the dole.
    4. Immigrants who have absolutely nothing, and are in even more desperate financial circumstances than many of us know, take those jobs because it's that or nothing.
    5. Meanwhile, the CEOs add another "zero" to their salaries because they were able to save even more money by getting the Britons with mortgages off of their payroll and still keep production up; and now, they are also able to respond to complaints from Britons about "why aren't there any jobs" by implying that it is the immigrants' fault and not their own.

    And a personal note - your "evidence" that "millions of people on the dole" and "immigrants taking our jobs" consists of one single instance of nepotism you saw, at one shop. You strike me as a thinking individual; start looking at where the real problem is - and it's not that one shop in Diam.
    posted by EmpressCallipygos at 4:34 AM on June 24, 2016 [101 favorites]


    Incidentally, part of me wants to blame all this crap on the unions electing the younger Miliband to lead the Labour party in the first place, followed by Corbyn. I think a Labour party led by the Blairites might not have been everything they wanted from Labour, but at the same time it wouldn’t have handed the country over to a bunch of Tories who have managed to drag us out of the EU & probably break the Union in the process, ensuring that the left will never hold power for a generation.
    posted by pharm at 4:35 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    Or maybe we can stay the UK since we've got London, Edinburgh and Belfast and the rest can just be Wales.

    New Mercia.
    posted by plep at 4:37 AM on June 24, 2016 [5 favorites]


    Labour's done. I'm eyeing the Women's Equality Party as a viable option.
    posted by like_neon at 4:37 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    This petition to have another go has crashed the government website.

    111,809 signatures right now (15k/hour), so parliament will have to consider a debate.
    posted by effbot at 4:38 AM on June 24, 2016 [3 favorites]


    To be fair, Corbyn is the worst person for Labour unity. He had to be practically dragged by horses to support Remain.

    For Parliamentary Labour Party unity, perhaps. For the grassroots of the party, less so. He clearly wanted to be on the other side of this issue, which goes a long way to explaining his lacklustre performance in the campaigning, but he represents the only credible alternative to the exact neoliberal consensus this was a rebellion against, and the party could have done well by the country to unify around his policy platform. Instead, AT A TIME WHEN PEOPLE HAVE JUST THROWN THE STATUS QUO OUT THE WINDOW MOST EMPHATICALLY, they're reverting back to the mean, going for that sweet, sweet establishment centrism.

    Madness. If you want Corbyn gone, if he turns out to be a damp squib, there's plenty of time yet. Giving the dust a little time to settle would have allowed the party to capitalise on the situation to assume degree, help shape the discourse around how things are going to be organised now. Instead, internal squabbles, and letting the Tories dictate the terms of the debate entirely. Lovely.
    posted by Dysk at 4:38 AM on June 24, 2016 [18 favorites]


    Considering joining the Greens and assisting their campaign for proportional representation in any way I can. I have to say, the absolutely sick feeling in the pit of my stomach that I got when I saw the notification from the BBC app on my phone this morning just after 5 am hasn't gone away. Instead, it's worse than ever. God this feels absolutely hopeless.
    posted by Sonny Jim at 4:39 AM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


    I can sort of see Sheffield - it’s a city that has never really recovered from the collapse of the steel industry - but why Birmingham?

    Birmingham has never really recovered from the collapse of the car industry and has huge problems with unemployment and graduate retention. Although there are very wealthy areas the city has never seemed to hang together in the way that Manchester or Liverpool do and certainly hasn't got the same unity and drive.
    posted by brilliantmistake at 4:39 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    If the Labour party ditch Corbyn then they are also going to lose the support from the young voters that signed up in droves to support him. The middle ground is a small and crowded playing area. The main problem is that as an actual anti-establishment figure Corbyn is up against the combined might of the establishment and the press. That and the fact that Corbyn has yet to find a left wing PR and spin doctor to help him, possibly due to the fact he hates all that noise. Unfortunately that is the fuel that the political machine runs on.
    posted by asok at 4:40 AM on June 24, 2016 [3 favorites]


    But the car industry hasn’t collapsed! The UK is selling cars as fast as we can turn the things out. Maybe the *Birmingham* car industry has collapsed though?
    posted by pharm at 4:41 AM on June 24, 2016


    A lot of people commenting on Leave voting areas, pointing out that they usually don't have a number of migrants. Well, the strongest Leave areas are around the Wash--specifically Holland--which does have a high number of EU migrants. I don't think it suddenly makes it valid, but it's a counterpoint to the idea that Leave voters citing immigration as a reason have not experience of it.
    posted by Emma May Smith at 4:41 AM on June 24, 2016


    That and the fact that Corbyn has yet to find a left wing PR and spin doctor to help him, possibly due to the fact he hates all that noise. Unfortunately that is the fuel that the political machine runs on.

    Yes well, everyone that pointed out that regardless of his political views Corbyn appears to have his head in the clouds when it comes to doing what it takes to win elections has turned out to be absolutely right so far haven’t they? Politics is a contact sport: moaning about that doesn’t change the reality - it just means that you *don’t* *win*.
    posted by pharm at 4:43 AM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


    Instead, internal squabbles, and letting the Tories dictate the terms of the debate entirely.

    That sums up the entire year since Corbyn was leader. So when exactly is he going to sort this group out?
    posted by like_neon at 4:44 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    It is kind of ironic that those areas most in receipt of EU money have all voted to Leave.
    posted by pharm at 4:45 AM on June 24, 2016 [3 favorites]


    The British car industry collapsed, just not the car industry in Britain. All the old huge British automakers were based in and around the Midlands, and broadly don't exist any more (Jaguar has some limited production capacity here still, but that's about it). The cars that are made in Britain today are predominantly not British-badged (even though they're designed here usually, often exclusively for the UK or UK and EU market) and are made in factories in places like Luton, but Brum or Cov. "The British Car Industry" means something fairly specific in this circumstance - British Leyland, Austin, Climax, et al, proper old Midlands manufacturing, not just any old automobile industry in Britain.
    posted by Dysk at 4:46 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    > At a time when everyone is talking about the importance of and need for unity, the Labour party goes and does this.
    ...
    > If you want Corbyn gone, if he turns out to be a damp squib, there's plenty of time yet.

    Despite my above comment, I think a snap GE this autumn could be quite likely, after the Conservatives unify around their own new leader. Otherwise we have 4 years of a PM with no electoral mandate. In that event, Labour need a viable, popular leader, fast (unless the strategy is to wait out the next 5 years). I like Corbyn. I would like him to be that viable, popular leader. But at the moment, I do not see it, and his performance in this referendum, I agree, has been awfully lackluster.

    The Conservatives have just experienced a serious push rightward. The centre ground is open.
    posted by Quagkapi at 4:46 AM on June 24, 2016 [5 favorites]


    It is kind of ironic that those areas most in receipt of EU money have all voted to Leave.

    It seems to be a form of irony that we've exported from the US - it's the states that tend to receive a lot of Federal money that have the most people complaining about "the federal government getting too involved with people", as I understand it.
    posted by EmpressCallipygos at 4:47 AM on June 24, 2016 [10 favorites]


    Boris Johnson strutting out of the Total Perspective Vortex like "ALL IS WELL FOLKS"
    posted by duffell at 4:47 AM on June 24, 2016 [12 favorites]


    Re: Corbyn's leadership. There's a gender aspect to opposition against him as well as an ideological one; a sense that his circle is something of a boys' club and that promising female MPs are being ignored. Remember that Jo Cox came out as an outspoken critic of Corbyn in the months before she was assassinated.
    posted by Sonny Jim at 4:47 AM on June 24, 2016


    It is kind of ironic that those areas most in receipt of EU money have all voted to Leave.

    Yeah, but the sales pitch was that they'd get £350m more each week without the EU, so that's not so strange.
    posted by effbot at 4:48 AM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


    I probably overlap with a majority of Corbyn's platform and I was happy to see some energy come from the left when he started getting attention and traction. But he's not a leader. He kind of reminds me of Sanders in this way.
    posted by like_neon at 4:48 AM on June 24, 2016 [5 favorites]


    this is like the biggest own goal in history.
    posted by localhuman at 4:48 AM on June 24, 2016 [37 favorites]


    That sums up the entire year since Corbyn was leader. So when exactly is he going to sort this group out?

    I'm of the opinion that it's the group that need to sort themselves out and really behind the leader with the biggest mandate the party has ever seen. But I guess you can blame Corbyn for all the knives in his back instead of the hands holding them, sure.
    posted by Dysk at 4:48 AM on June 24, 2016 [7 favorites]


    Also, the Leave campaign assured regional councils that the UK Treasury would compensate them for the loss of EU structural funds. Which seems completely pie in the sky, but still.
    posted by Sonny Jim at 4:49 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    It is kind of ironic that those areas most in receipt of EU money have all voted to Leave.

    The linking factor is that they're economically precarious. If you're poor you get EU funds. If you're poor you're more likely to seek to blame or hurt an external actor. There's no irony, just tragedy.
    posted by Emma May Smith at 4:50 AM on June 24, 2016 [12 favorites]


    I have enough space in my heart to hold them all equally accountable.
    posted by like_neon at 4:50 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    the Leave campaign assured regional councils that the UK Treasury would compensate them for the loss of EU structural funds

    Yuh. That's not going to happen. Birds fly. Fish swim. Tories lie.
    posted by Grangousier at 4:51 AM on June 24, 2016 [25 favorites]


    The linking factor is that they're economically precarious. If you're poor you get EU funds. If you're poor you're more likely to seek to blame or hurt an external actor. There's no irony, just tragedy.

    That's because you missed the bit where the irony comes in - the poor blaming the external actors that are directly alleviating their economic predicament and cutting off their own support. It's tragic too, of course.
    posted by Dysk at 4:53 AM on June 24, 2016 [5 favorites]




    Ah. I always wondered what it would feel like to live in a sociopolitical garbage fire.
    posted by harujion at 4:58 AM on June 24, 2016 [5 favorites]


    Yes Corbyn had a mandate. His performance is even more damning because of it. Did he use this mandate effectively, if at all? Where was this overwhelming support for him to lead when his party MPs weren't getting it together? I like the guy, really. I just don't think he's a good leader, he hasn't made good use of his year as leader, and now I'm afraid it's too late for Labour to recover.
    posted by like_neon at 4:58 AM on June 24, 2016 [5 favorites]


    The next James Bond movie will be just Bond spending 2 hours in passport control at Charles De Gaulle.
    posted by T.D. Strange at 5:00 AM on June 24, 2016 [83 favorites]


    The Conservatives have just experienced a serious push rightward. The centre ground is open.

    What the hell is the point of the Labour party if they're just going to go for the same policy platforms and positions add the Tories? I don't want them on the "centre ground" (which in the UK is right-wing as fuck by the standards of the rest of northern Europe) I want a fucking alternative, a left wing party. A choice between two colours of Tory is not a meaningful choice.
    posted by Dysk at 5:00 AM on June 24, 2016 [15 favorites]


    "But why wouldn't UK people just move to here or Canada?"

    *facepalm*

    My wife is American. We would LOVE to move to Canada. Anyone want to offer us jobs? No? Next on the list: America. I've got an American spouse of 2+ year (in a few months). We've got all our papers and evidence. It'll be at least $5k for my visa - more if we run on any snags at all - and can take 16 month.
    posted by harujion at 5:02 AM on June 24, 2016 [11 favorites]


    I still can't even Boris Buffoon Johnson being PM.

    My wife is American. We would LOVE to move to Canada. Anyone want to offer us jobs? No? Next on the list: America. I've got an American spouse of 2+ year (in a few months). We've got all our papers and evidence. It'll be at least $5k for my visa - more if we run on any snags at all - and can take 16 month.

    I looked into the possibility of uprooting myself and my wife to Australia in case of a Trump win. An 801 subclass is USD$5,485.00 alone. Before any lawyers. Australia wants five and a half thousand fucking dollars for a partner visa.
    posted by Talez at 5:07 AM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


    everyone that pointed out that regardless of his political views Corbyn appears to have his head in the clouds when it comes to doing what it takes to win elections has turned out to be absolutely right so far haven’t they?

    Well, yes and no. He had the biggest mandate of any Labour leader, sticking to his tried and tested approach of avoiding the press and not playing schoolyard games in parliament has endeared him to some, but doesn't push his brand in the way that someone at the opposite end of the spectrum, such as Boris Johnson, does.

    Ideally we would have a charming Labour leader that was not a preening, Machiavellian monomaniac, however there is some debate whether there are any charming people who are not so some degree sociopathic.
    posted by asok at 5:07 AM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


    But the car industry hasn’t collapsed! The UK is selling cars as fast as we can turn the things out. Maybe the *Birmingham* car industry has collapsed though?

    Funny - I'm sure 30,000 jobs in Birmingham were lost when MG Rover (the last domestically owned mass market car manufacturer) went down. Maybe I imagined it.

    JLR still employs people in the city but on nowhere near the scale that the industry used to and the supply chain doesn't really exist in the city like it used to.
    posted by brilliantmistake at 5:07 AM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


    Canada sounds cool but America, really? Have you read their news recently? Or you may want to wait until November at the very least.
    posted by like_neon at 5:09 AM on June 24, 2016 [11 favorites]




    JLR still employs people in the city but on nowhere near the scale that the industry used to and the supply chain doesn't really exist in the city like it used to.

    My friends at JLR are really freaking out about the referendum result, and the fall in sterling. Even though they export most of their products, they firstly need access to the European market - their largest - and basically every major component is imported from mainland Europe, so the currency devaluation advantage for exports is non-existent.
    posted by Dysk at 5:12 AM on June 24, 2016 [3 favorites]


    I must have missed this referendum: "UK votes to leave UN."
    posted by effbot at 5:14 AM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


    effbot, and basically none of those cars are made in Brum or the Black Country, so they don't actually count against the closure of MG Rover.
    posted by Dysk at 5:14 AM on June 24, 2016




    I looked into what I would need for moving to Canada a while ago - sort of but not just in case of this result - and apparently they don't like you if you have a long-term mental health condition as you might be seen as a drain on social services. Given that I haven't seen a psych for three years and have been waiting for a referral since March, I can't see I could be any less of a drain.
    posted by mippy at 5:16 AM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


    UK told to leave as soon as possible
    The reaction from the EU to Britain’s leave vote has been unequivocal - there is no going back. Not only that but they have told Britain to get a move on in invoking article 50 of the Lisbon treaty, which represents formal notification of the decision to leave
    posted by PenDevil at 5:16 AM on June 24, 2016 [11 favorites]


    It's funny: every time there's the potential for some awful election result in the US, people say they're going to move to Canada, and I laugh and laugh, because these folks clearly have never tried to immigrate anywhere. You don't just up and move: it's a long, difficult, expensive project, and there's no guarantee that the country you want to move to will be willing to take you.

    Of course, British people can just up and move to any one of 27 other countries, but that's what they voted to give up yesterday.
    posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 5:17 AM on June 24, 2016 [43 favorites]


    I looked into the possibility of uprooting myself and my wife to Australia in case of a Trump win. An 801 subclass is USD$5,485.00 alone. Before any lawyers. Australia wants five and a half thousand fucking dollars for a partner visa.

    Exactly. People who have never had to emigrate don't understand that it's a lot of money in paperwork alone to do so. You pay your money, think you do everything right, and they can still reject you. You don't get that money back!

    Waiting over here in Canada for our markets to wake up. The CBC is predicting this will also impact the CAD. Sigh. We've been below par for so long, it will really suck if it takes a serious hit again.
    posted by Kitteh at 5:17 AM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


    (And while the number of cars produced in the UK may be a record number, the number of jobs involved in that is far from it. A modern, largely automated production line can produce many more cars with far fewer people than the traditional 70s heyday Midlands workshop full of women sewing interiors and men assembling things by hand, badly.)
    posted by Dysk at 5:18 AM on June 24, 2016 [3 favorites]


    Before the referrendum I remember there was an interview with someone on the Leave side explaining that the car industry shouldn't have to worry because:

    1) He doesn't think Europe would stop buying UK cars just because they got more expensive to export
    2) And don't worry if German cars get expensive to import, British consumers can just buy British cars instead.

    Looking at this list of UK manufactured cars with Mini, Bentley, Aston Martin, Rolls Royce, Jaguar on it, argument number 2 sounds an awful lot like "Let them eat cake!"
    posted by like_neon at 5:18 AM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


    If Cameron doesn't trigger Article 50 by COB the EU should immediately start Article 7 suspension proceedings. Immediately strip the passports of UK based financial services retailers.

    Don't pussyfoot around. The populace deserve to know just how much this will gut the UK economy.
    posted by Talez at 5:24 AM on June 24, 2016 [9 favorites]


    Easy for you to say, Yankee-boy.
    posted by Grangousier at 5:25 AM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


    "Of course, British people can just up and move to any one of 27 other countries, but that's what they voted to give up yesterday."

    This is one of the things that pisses me off the most. Yesterday, I could have decided to move to Germany, or do a degree in Amsterdam, or stay in Spain for six months without a visa. Now I can't. I know people who have married sooner than they perhaps would have done for immigration purposes, and it is a long and expensive process. However, I've always wanted to live in another country for a while, and the only thing making it difficult for Europe was the whole business of getting older and putting down roots. Now it might be as difficult as migrating to the US.

    If Scotland become independent my Scots SO wants to go back there. It's tempting. Unfortunately I work in a very, very London-centric industry, one which caused us both to move to London from the North/Scotland in the first place, and quite a specific role within that. Sigh.
    posted by mippy at 5:26 AM on June 24, 2016 [5 favorites]


    "Let them eat cake!"

    Oh, if the market collapses completely, I'm sure Tata can start shipping Nanos to the UK. It'll probably takes some deregulation to make it street legal, but that shouldn't be a problem now.
    posted by effbot at 5:27 AM on June 24, 2016 [4 favorites]


    Easy for you to say, Yankee-boy.

    I'm a British subject and a Commonwealth Citizen.
    posted by Talez at 5:28 AM on June 24, 2016 [5 favorites]


    Cake?
    posted by goodnewsfortheinsane at 5:28 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    Can we not get Gordon Brown back? VAT of 15%. $2 to the pound. What a glorious time for internet shopping.

    On Facebook, there's a group dedicated to hunting down 'replica' items from AliExpress and they are all pissed off because things will now be more expensive. Many of the posters have 'Vote Out' avatars. Someone on my Twitter said that a colleague who voted out is now really pissed off at how much he paid for his euros this morning.
    posted by mippy at 5:28 AM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


    Then sorry. I'm a bit touchy on that at the moment.
    posted by Grangousier at 5:28 AM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


    Oh, if the market collapses completely, I'm sure Tata can start shipping Nanos to the UK.

    I read that as 'Nandos' and was going to say that now is not the time for Boris #banter and a cheeky Nandos.
    posted by mippy at 5:29 AM on June 24, 2016 [5 favorites]


    It's funny: every time there's the potential for some awful election result in the US, people say they're going to move to Canada, and I laugh and laugh, because these folks clearly have never tried to immigrate anywhere.

    Someone way upthread claimed that there is a similar degree of freedom of movement between the US and Canada as exists within the EU. Of course, this is completely false. Canada has a points-based immigration system. Unless you are a highly-educated elite professional with a job offer in hand, you (like me) are not getting any kind of work or residence visa from Canada, the end. Leave voters have no idea what they just threw away. There is nowhere else in the world which allows the freedom of movement that the EU does. I would kill for an EU passport and these people just gave it up for nothing.
    posted by enn at 5:29 AM on June 24, 2016 [56 favorites]


    Unfortunately I work in a very, very London-centric industry, one which caused us both to move to London from the North/Scotland in the first place, and quite a specific role within that.

    Finance? Because...
    posted by (Arsenio) Hall and (Warren) Oates at 5:29 AM on June 24, 2016


    What's the reaction of the public to the fact that their savings just took a haircut?
    posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 5:30 AM on June 24, 2016


    I'm a British subject and a Commonwealth Citizen.

    ...and thus basically unaffected by this, unlike those of us living in the UK.
    posted by Dysk at 5:31 AM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


    I too think a punishment beating from the focal point of the argument is what's needed here. That'll learn us.
    posted by vbfg at 5:32 AM on June 24, 2016


    I would kill for an EU passport and these people just gave it up for nothing.

    Not for nothing. They gave it up because some racist, xenophobic, shitheel cuntlord said it would give the NHS more money and then said "oops" and took it back the moment his racist and xenophobic interests were satisfied.
    posted by Talez at 5:32 AM on June 24, 2016 [58 favorites]


    What's the Article 50 foot-dragging about? From all the rhetoric about independence and taking back control I'd have thought Gove and Johnson would be climbing over each other to push that button, but suddenly it's all "oh, no rush, no need for haste, we have all the time in the world..."
    posted by Catseye at 5:33 AM on June 24, 2016 [7 favorites]


    TBH I could use a cheeky Nando's right about now. And a pint of London Pride.

    Speaking of which, it actually is London Pride this weekend. Should be interesting.
    posted by like_neon at 5:34 AM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


    What's the Article 50 foot-dragging about? From all the rhetoric about independence and taking back control I'd have thought Gove and Johnson would be climbing over each other to push that button, but suddenly it's all "oh, no rush, no need for haste, we have all the time in the world..."

    Their brinkmanship reached its sad, inevitable conclusion, and from the precipice they gazed into the abyss, only to realise that holy fuck, that is a LONG way down, maybe we should like, stop and think about this, hey?
    posted by Dysk at 5:37 AM on June 24, 2016 [36 favorites]


    And then Juncker prodded them in the small of the back.
    posted by Grangousier at 5:39 AM on June 24, 2016 [9 favorites]


    This Leave leadership reaction reminds me of Begbie throwing the bottle off the balcony, but instead of the fight he offers the girl a tissue and suggests calling an ambulance.
    posted by asok at 5:39 AM on June 24, 2016


    Europe is Lost.
    posted by Happy Dave at 5:40 AM on June 24, 2016 [7 favorites]


    What's the Article 50 foot-dragging about?

    Boris never believed in any of that; he doesn't believe in anything except Boris. Positioning himself as a "Leave" supporter and leader in the campaign set him up as the next Tory leader and PM if Remain lost. For Boris, personal ambition was the only point of the exercise. And now that he's likely to be the next PM he's not going to be in a hurry to trigger an actual exit (because while Cameron is going to be remembered with Chamberlain as "epic failure", being "the PM who presided over the breakup of the United Kingdom" wouldn't look good in the history books either), so he's probably hoping for some minor concession from the EU (limited border controls/restrictions on free movement, or something) so he can claim a victory and simultaneously become the saviour of the UK (extremely cynical, I know, but I wouldn't be the least surprised if that's the rough thought process).
    posted by Pseudonymous Cognomen at 5:40 AM on June 24, 2016 [10 favorites]


    Maybe a taxi rather than an ambulance. And doesn't offer to pay.
    posted by asok at 5:40 AM on June 24, 2016


    so he's probably hoping for some minor concession from the EU

    Juncker has stated that there will be no concessions. The UK can either stay or fuck off. And they better choose quick.

    If Boris thinks the EU will come crawling back to him I think he's going to be sorely mistaken.
    posted by Talez at 5:43 AM on June 24, 2016 [10 favorites]


    The post war baby boomers - the most privileged generation ever in terms of benefits, pensions, job security and rights have sold all of us down the river.

    Also the sun sets in the West.

    It's the Boomer's MO and it's not out of malice but entitlement. What's weird is that their self-interested naivete hasn't worn down much with time and life. They still think they're sticking it to the Man and being wise by living for the here and now.

    Nope, you're sticking it to your kids. And their kids. It is the opposite of wisdom.
    posted by snuffleupagus at 5:43 AM on June 24, 2016 [42 favorites]


    Juncker has stated that there will be no concessions. The UK can either stay or fuck off.

    He just doesn't want to risk any more countries following suit. It's what a negotiation looks like.

    Every few hundred comments I feel like pointing out that the EU is not a socialist project.
    posted by Coda Tronca at 5:56 AM on June 24, 2016 [5 favorites]


    I wonder whether Spain and Belgium would still block a Scottish ascension to the EU if Scotland did secede from the UK to rejoin the EU.
    posted by Talez at 5:57 AM on June 24, 2016


    The vote is in and now we must face the consequences.

    This is all work that need to be done. We've just poked a large series of holes in an already rusty and sinking ship (cf. enlightenement, internationalism, peace, social justice) and now we must repair them while others continue to poke.
    posted by lalochezia at 5:58 AM on June 24, 2016


    Every few hundred comments I feel like pointing out that the EU is not a socialist project.

    Of course not. It's technocratic if anything. Which the Sun and Daily Mail have no end of joy pointing out.
    posted by Talez at 5:58 AM on June 24, 2016


    ...there are about as many people in Texas as there are people who voted in the UK referendum.

    In my fantasy Texas votes to leave and the next day the President gives a speech stating he respects the decision, seals the borders around Texas, and cuts off all Federal funds flowing into Texas.

    30 days later Texas votes 98% to come back.
    posted by COD at 6:02 AM on June 24, 2016 [36 favorites]


    It is in the EU's interest to make this as nasty and painful a divorce as possible for Britain, pour encourager les autres. What further negotiations are to be had? The British have been recalcitrant already and had already secured for themselves special concessions from the EU, which they just shit away in a fit of pique. Either the EU brings the pain, or it hastens it own collapse by being seen as weak.
    posted by Chrischris at 6:04 AM on June 24, 2016 [17 favorites]


    Every few hundred comments I feel like pointing out that the EU is not a socialist project.

    And it's still so far left of Westminster politics as to not even be on the same scale.
    posted by Dysk at 6:05 AM on June 24, 2016 [15 favorites]


    English and Scottish people are different, but not in that they both want more freedom.
    They endeavour to avoid being thrown inside Moloch, who would condemn them ?
    Anyway, France did quite the same in 2005 - its government didn't really notice. I wonder if the Union isn't pressuring UK right now to send its government on a similar way to mend the damage done. i.e. pretending to respect people's will but at the same time following an unchanged agenda.
    posted by nicolin at 6:08 AM on June 24, 2016


    As an EU migrant living in Glasgow (and having lived here for a decade), I cannot tell you how reassuring to hear Nicola Sturgeon lead with a statement to EU citizens: "You remain welcome here, Scotland is your home and your contribution is valued" That was what finally made me break into tears. The relief.
    posted by kariebookish at 6:08 AM on June 24, 2016 [118 favorites]


    And it's still so far left of Westminster politics as to not even be on the same scale.

    Simply not true.
    posted by Coda Tronca at 6:09 AM on June 24, 2016


    These people who are all of a sudden confused about the actual consequences of this outcome, what did they think they were doing in the voting booths? Did they think this was just some sort of opinion poll? Or perhaps they have been too conditioned from years of X-Factor and didn't think the results would have any truly lasting effects.
    posted by like_neon at 6:10 AM on June 24, 2016 [6 favorites]


    These people who are all of a sudden confused about the actual consequences of this outcome, what did they think they were doing in the voting booths? Did they think this was just some sort of opinion poll?

    Honestly, if it's anything at all like what I've seen on this side of the pond, it was about choosing a side and then having that side win.

    What winning actually meant may have been a secondary consideration.
    posted by Mooski at 6:13 AM on June 24, 2016 [20 favorites]




    Or perhaps they have been too conditioned from years of X-Factor and didn't think the results would have any truly lasting effects.

    Let's not be too hasty. The de facto breakup of One Direction has wounded the UK in a way that will take a generation and a reunion concert in twenty years to heal.
    posted by Talez at 6:15 AM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


    The mood of the leavers on my Facebook is remarkably subdued, given their previous enthusiasm. A lot saying "well it's going to hurt in the short term, but we'll be better off in the long run".
    posted by threetwentytwo at 6:15 AM on June 24, 2016


    Living in the Midlands, currently unable to work and on a one-year waiting list for a corrective surgery that I could never afford privately, and for which the expertise doesn't exist in much of the rest of Europe, I am worried. Nobody is reassuring me, and I am deeply deeply worried that I might end up losing access to the NHS before the procedure, leaving me effectively permanently crippled due to having major surgery on the NHS and never being able to have the minor correction done.
    posted by Dysk at 6:16 AM on June 24, 2016 [8 favorites]




    One Direction didn't win X-Factor that year. Matt Cardle won. Who? Exactly.
    posted by like_neon at 6:20 AM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


    These people who are all of a sudden confused about the actual consequences of this outcome, what did they think they were doing in the voting booths? Did they think this was just some sort of opinion poll? Or perhaps they have been too conditioned from years of X-Factor and didn't think the results would have any truly lasting effects.
    It sounds like, to a large extent, leave voters are people who feel disenfranchised. And one thing about feeling powerless is that it's hard to think about consequences. If you feel like you have no agency, then everything you do is basically symbolic, or else it's meaningless. I think it must be weird for people to wake up and realize that they weren't so powerless and now they may be fucked.
    posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 6:22 AM on June 24, 2016 [50 favorites]


    "Mom, Dad, it's nativism! Don't touch it!"
    posted by nom de poop at 6:23 AM on June 24, 2016 [24 favorites]


    Morgan Stanley say they are not moving their staff, and the stock market meltdown is not happening.

    Slavoj Zizek once remarked that 'it is easier to imagine the end of the world than the end of capitalism.'
    posted by Coda Tronca at 6:24 AM on June 24, 2016 [10 favorites]


    Well, as long as those 2000 jobs were only held by $PEJORATIVE_SLANG_FOR_IRISH and $PEJORATIVE_SLANG_FOR_GERMAN the Leavers won't regard this as a loss of British jobs at all.

    Or I don't know, I was up all night so it's hard for me to tell what an actually incisive bitter joke would look like.

    My only ray of hope is that the referendum is advisory not compulsory, and the major corporations are not going to like this leaving nonsense at all - and as noted, the EU is not a socialist institution and the main reason British government has been resistant to the EU all along is the desire to have a starving working class while protecting the interests of the rich - something they were doing very successfully up until now. The paradox being that finagling a way to stay in response to putative pressure from corporations might be the only thing that saves us hoi polloi from something even worse.
    posted by tel3path at 6:24 AM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


    Regrets, I've had a few:
    Cornwall has issued an urgent plea for reassurance that it will not be worse off following the Brexit vote. The county has received "significant amounts" of funding from the EU for the past 15 years due to its "relatively weak economy". But, following the vote to leave the Union, the council says it is seeking urgent reassurance money allocated to it will still be received.
    posted by (Arsenio) Hall and (Warren) Oates at 6:26 AM on June 24, 2016 [16 favorites]


    I am deeply deeply worried that I might end up losing access to the NHS before the procedure

    I am very sorry to hear that, Dysk. But I refuse to believe the world has gone that mad, or will do so so quickly. Best thoughts, strong wishes, and hopes of assurance from house quidnunc.
    posted by the quidnunc kid at 6:29 AM on June 24, 2016 [7 favorites]


    Supposing I were living in an alternate reality where instead of being an middle-class, middle-aged American living in a major US city, I were the same guy as a Brit living in London.

    What will be the "boots-on-the-ground", practical consequences of this decision? Does it mean that imported goods are immediately tariffed so that my French champagne and cheese are 20% more expensive? Does it mean that I have to wait in longer passport lines when I ride Eurostar to Paris?

    I guess what I'm wondering is, what are the expected, tangible effects for the average "man in the street" in the UK? (i.e. not the existential or symbolic effects or impact on national or personal identity)

    What's really going to change?
    posted by theorique at 6:30 AM on June 24, 2016


    It could just be my social circle, but I've never seen such widespread and outspoken shock and horror at a world event. Even the people who never talk about politics seem to be quite upset about this.
    posted by schmod at 6:32 AM on June 24, 2016 [5 favorites]


    This happened yesterday.....what a great time to weaken the European project.

    Reuters: Russia seen putting new nuclear-capable missiles along NATO border by 2019 (deployment of Iskander mobile systems to Kaliningrad)
    posted by snuffleupagus at 6:33 AM on June 24, 2016 [3 favorites]


    Remember: The British government deliberately ignored will of the people when it decided not to name a research vessel Boaty McBoatFace.

    Let's hope they have the same wisdom this time around.

    How bad would the consequences be if parliament ignores the referendum? Would they be easier to live with?
    posted by schmod at 6:34 AM on June 24, 2016 [16 favorites]


    Coda Tronca is making a good point. At this point with David Cameron gone by oct and 3 months for the world to sort out what this means seems like the best outcome after the vote.

    I mean it's still a clusterfuck just less of one.
    posted by Annika Cicada at 6:34 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]




    Dow drops 500 points in three minutes after opening bell...

    Jesus.
    posted by Windopaene at 6:34 AM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


    Juncker has stated that there will be no concessions. The UK can either stay or fuck off.

    Actually it sounds more like he said, "fuck right off, and do it quickly". You made your choice, now get on with it. No takesy backsies.
    posted by T.D. Strange at 6:35 AM on June 24, 2016 [14 favorites]


    AbritraryAndCapricious - this is a very good point, thanks. I have also felt that it was rather irresponsible for the government/Cameron to abdicate this decision to the general public and it's got a lot to do with this. We should just decide who our local MP is and what day to take out the rubbish. It is the MPs job to be informed enough to make such enormous decisions for the national good. That's why we (theoretically) vote for them. This is why we don't put going to war to a vote.
    posted by like_neon at 6:35 AM on June 24, 2016 [4 favorites]


    I'm reminded of a Jimmy Carr joke. "If someone who doesn't speak English comes here and takes your job, you're shit!". Well, not so much a joke, as something people are going to quote when they try to explain the seething contempt the elite in the UK have for its poor and economically vulnerable that lead us to this state.

    If you think this was about privilege consider: You're arguing the tremendously privileged sods who are below the C1 demographic, have no qualifications, limited education, and who are looking at old age without the NHS were overruling the terribly oppressed wealthy, educated, mobile, and young.

    I said it at the beginning, and I'll say it at the end. We've let our societies get so unequal and so utterly disregarding of the less fortunate that at least half the people who are motivated to vote are so angry and so distrustful of everyone and everything that a pack of demagogues can lead them off a cliff. We are looking at the death of democracy here. This is literally how they go, things get so bad that when some asshole rides up on a white horse with a plan to fix things they're voted into power.
    posted by Grimgrin at 6:35 AM on June 24, 2016 [15 favorites]


    Footage of Boris Johnson giving speeches today is not encouraging. There's a real look of fear in his eyes. He looks small and scared. Coupled with Farage's premature concession last night, it really does give the impression of a piece of political brinkmanship that got well out of control. Nobody really wanted this, not even large chunks of the Leave team.
    posted by Sonny Jim at 6:36 AM on June 24, 2016 [29 favorites]


    Dow drops 500 points in three minutes after opening bell...

    Jesus.
    posted by Windopaene at 9:34 AM on June 24 [+] [!]


    This is to be expected, and a number of those markets are going to be bumpy for a while. If you are an investor and you have cash, there will some stellar buying opportunities. If you're (like most people) in a long-term position, just ride it out.
    posted by Thistledown at 6:37 AM on June 24, 2016 [5 favorites]


    Reuters: Russia seen putting new nuclear-capable missiles along NATO border by 2019 (deployment of Iskander mobile systems to Kaliningrad)

    They must be overjoyed. Westward expansion is very much on the table for them now.
    posted by Artw at 6:37 AM on June 24, 2016 [6 favorites]


    I've seen this a lot on Twitter -- "Let this be a warning about Trump!" Well, okay. I mean I'm petrified that Trump will be elected. What the hell do you want me to do about it? The only people who can guarantee that Trump is not elected are Republicans and Republican-leaning independents standing up to him and saying "NO." If they don't do that, then it's a 50/50 race. Since I'm not one of those people I'm not really sure what I'm supposed to do to "wake up" to the danger that Trump is.

    No hyperbole -- is this what it was like living in the 1930s? Just watching nations make horrible decisions and powerless to stop it, just sitting around hoping it doesn't get worse.
    posted by (Arsenio) Hall and (Warren) Oates at 6:38 AM on June 24, 2016 [47 favorites]


    The current headlines from the video-clip sidebar on the BBC News homepage, in order:
    • Cameron says UK 'needs fresh leadership'
    • Merkel: 'We have to remain calm'
    • Donald Trump: 'Brexit is a good thing'
    So, yeah. No reason to worry. Everything is fine. Nothing is on fire. These are normal headlines that would never be cause for alarm.
    posted by schmod at 6:40 AM on June 24, 2016 [10 favorites]


    What the hell do you want me to do about it?

    Vote. Make sure everybody you know votes. Drive mom to the polls. Spread awareness – call out their lies.
    posted by schmod at 6:41 AM on June 24, 2016 [12 favorites]


    Keep it just to the UK referendum in what way? The whole reason why people are freaking about this is because this affects the global economy and is going to set off a chain reaction of potentially frightening events.
    posted by (Arsenio) Hall and (Warren) Oates at 6:44 AM on June 24, 2016 [11 favorites]


    Turbulence and Uncertainty for the Market After ‘Brexit’ - Peter S. Goodman, NYT:
    Most broadly, the vote is likely to resonate as a sign that major democracies are increasingly vulnerable to the influence of populist political movements that curry favor by demonizing immigrants and external forces such as officials in Brussels and Washington, low-wage workers in China and Mexico.

    The noisy and acrimonious campaign over leaving the bloc played on inchoate fears in Europe and much of the developed world: dismay over globalization at a time of intensified competition for jobs, and angst over immigration as it refashions conceptions of national identity. Those sentiments will surely find additional avenues for expression, challenging trade arrangements, reinvigorating existential questions about the shared euro currency and sowing uncertainty throughout the financial realm.
    posted by joseph conrad is fully awesome at 6:44 AM on June 24, 2016


    2016: Remain calm. Nothing is on fire.
    posted by Sonny Jim at 6:44 AM on June 24, 2016 [18 favorites]


    I am calm. Did it help?
    posted by Namlit at 6:47 AM on June 24, 2016 [8 favorites]




    It does look like Farage actually didn't really want it, just like Corbyn didn't really want to be Labour leader.
    posted by Coda Tronca at 6:48 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    Alright, you non-believers. Don't you feel just a little bit like maybe the Antichrist is coming?
    posted by dances_with_sneetches at 6:48 AM on June 24, 2016 [9 favorites]


    I'm okay with the events that are unfolding currently.
    posted by asok at 6:49 AM on June 24, 2016 [7 favorites]


    that's okay, things are going to be okay
    posted by entropicamericana at 6:53 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    Mod note: Can we keep this thread about the UK referendum?

    Totally a fair point -- though in this case I do get if folks draw parallels, and Trump did sort of insert himself into this story by casually materializing in Scotland for some reason. But you're right to note that the topic of this thread is clear and it should not become Another US Election Thread or some kind of proxy thereof. So as always feel free to flag anything that looks like it really shouldn't be here and we'll take a look.
    posted by goodnewsfortheinsane (staff) at 6:54 AM on June 24, 2016 [10 favorites]




    Thanks winterhill! Just a meme in this case referring to Nothing is on fire.
    posted by asok at 6:54 AM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


    Mefi's Own Flashboy on post-Brexit Britain.

    Also a woman calling Boris Johnson a twat on Sky News.

    Both cheered me up a bit.

    But only a bit.
    posted by Happy Dave at 6:55 AM on June 24, 2016 [11 favorites]


    we haven't voted away EU regulations (which we'll have to conform to), just the ability to affect those regulations; we haven't voted away the need to pay money to the EU, just the rebate and any subsidies that EU membership might have entitled us to

    I don't really understand this. How will England still be bound by this?
    posted by corb at 6:56 AM on June 24, 2016


    O hey, messrs fear, doubt and despair? Fuck you guys!1
    1 not a commentary on any previous comment, nor a command to fellow MeFites, but rather an apostrophe to introduce:

    A wistful sonnet upon the contemplation of losing my rights under Articles 20(1) and 20(2)(a) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union

    No, now is not the hour for despair
    What victory have they who do not love
    The love we have, who care for other cares?
    If culture's just what everybody does

    Then I'll do only hope, and never hate
    Even if they take away those rights
    In Articles that I thought truly great
    In Treaties fairly-fashioned (to my sight).

    Sweet immigration made me all I'll be
    As all my forebears came and went again
    As migrants, economic refugees,
    From parts of former empire. But, then -

    O blessèd day! - when granted my degree in
    Britishness ... then was I European.
    posted by the quidnunc kid at 6:57 AM on June 24, 2016 [23 favorites]


    How will England still be bound by this?

    They still trade with EU countries. (well, presumably)
    posted by (Arsenio) Hall and (Warren) Oates at 6:57 AM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


    I don't really understand this. How will England still be bound by this?

    If you want to sell products into the European single market (the largest trade bloc in the world and our biggest export destination by far) you have to conform to EU regulations. So, like Norway, we'll still have to obey the rules, we'll just have zero say in them.

    Also it's Britain/the UK, not England. England may have fucked the rest of us in the UK, but please stop making this elementary mistake.
    posted by Happy Dave at 6:59 AM on June 24, 2016 [17 favorites]


    How will England still be bound by this?

    If they still want to trade with the EU, they will have to conform to EU standards anyway, or be locked out of the market. They'll also have to pay the EU for access to that market anyway. Only now they have no say in those regulations, and will get nothing else in return.
    posted by T.D. Strange at 6:59 AM on June 24, 2016 [7 favorites]


    > I don't really understand this. How will England still be bound by this?

    You know all those annoying confirmations of cookies that started popping up on just about all websites?

    That's the product of an EU regulation. You want to sell to the EU you abide by their regulations. US companies as well as British.
    posted by vbfg at 6:59 AM on June 24, 2016


    Finance? Because...
          Just heard this rumour in the City: both @BNPParibas and @jpmorgan planning to relocate to Paris


    Erm don't mean to point out the obvious but both the P and Pari in BNPParibas refer to Paris. Banque Nationale de Paris. That said, the underlying probability is true – I work in La Défense, which is France's financial and energy management sector. Lots of friends and colleagues working in various banks with offices in London. They're all saying the same thing: why stay in London now when Paris is nearby and offices are available? Indeed, in an interesting coincidence, IT departments have been moved out of offices here over the past year, to cheaper office rents in northern suburbs, leaving a lot of La Défense office real estate available. My colleagues are saying that their bosses are visibly delighted at the prospect of bringing London outposts here.

    I'm really worried for friends in England and English friends here in France. All of them were Remain; their networks are inextricably tied to the EU. They honestly don't know what they're going to do.

    It will also be "interesting" (in the "may you live in interesting times" sense) to see what happens to retired UK citizens who made the most of the EU to buy property in Provence and in Spain... it's got to be a huge worry for them.
    posted by fraula at 7:01 AM on June 24, 2016 [10 favorites]


    Hillary Clinton, on Facebook: We respect the choice the people of the United Kingdom have made. Our first task has to be to make sure that the economic uncertainty created by these events does not hurt working families here in America. We also have to make clear America's steadfast commitment to the special relationship with Britain and the transatlantic alliance with Europe. This time of uncertainty only underscores the need for calm, steady, experienced leadership in the White House to protect Americans' pocketbooks and livelihoods, to support our friends and allies, to stand up to our adversaries, and to defend our interests. It also underscores the need for us to pull together to solve our challenges as a country, not tear each other down.
    posted by roomthreeseventeen at 7:01 AM on June 24, 2016 [16 favorites]


    I don't really understand this. How will England still be bound by this?
    Trade partners still have to abide by the regulations of their partners. (Mostly. I mean, China will still attempt to sell poison floors/walls/dog food to Americans. But when we find out Bad Things(tm) can happen as per our trade agreements.)
    posted by xyzzy at 7:01 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    Its going to be hilarious when the UK bails out its local industries and then the EU puts anti-dumping tariffs on the products.
    posted by JPD at 7:02 AM on June 24, 2016 [3 favorites]


    Millions of people who weren't able to vote in this referendum - because they are EU citizens right? - are now feeling shaky about their entire future.

    Immigrants from all nations now feel less secure about their place in the UK.

    Young people are now facing an endless recession and the prospect of walls being put up so that they cannot go and make their future in another country

    Scotland is deadly serious about leaving. Sturgeon has stated another referendum will be called and is already meeting with EU leaders. So, goodbye United Kingdom.

    Any "deals" the UK does with the EU will be as a tiny country with a crashing economy, negotiating against an enormous bloc who wants to turn them into an example. You guess what kind of deal that will be.

    The United States does not care about the UK as much as the UK thinks it does.

    The people who voted Leave because they were unhappy with the state of affairs may discover to their dismay that it will get worse.

    There's a German word for this: Verschlimmbesserung
    "A supposed improvement that makes things worse."
    posted by vacapinta at 7:03 AM on June 24, 2016 [114 favorites]


    Okay, in the first place, a middle-class Londoner doesn't have the disposable income to spend the money on those kinds of luxury goods and travel, at least not routinely. That doesn't mean they won't be spending money on those things, but they can't afford them.

    I'm old enough to remember the anticipation of 1992 and in particular my dad's optimism that it would bring in a whole new raft of worker's rights. At that time, immediately pre-1992, I had had to come home to my working-class household in a depressed town because I couldn't ever get enough of the right kind of paperwork for the French authorities to hand over my carte de séjour - which I believe is still a requirement - nor to open a bank account in France, such that I couldn't be paid even though technically employed.

    Because I was on a year off, I of course was not entitled to the last remnants of a student grant, which still existed then (a full grant was usually just enough to cover rent on a room in a shared house, but nothing else in the way of subsistence). Because I was a student (and in any case had quit my job abroad) I wasn't entitled to benefits, since that was the year they took such things away from students. My parents kept sending me to the job centre despite my protests, the job centre kept turning me away after my three hour queuing sessions, because "we don't get jobs for students any more, we only get jobs for people who need them". I was eventually, about five months into my year off, saved by a zero-hours contract as a cleaner at the local hospital (I had applied to be a porter at £8000 per year, but it turned out that porters were men. Women were cleaners and earned £6000 per year, so that's what I was hired as). Of course I was deeply in debt with an APR of 27% from my Parisian sojourn and my time without income, so I didn't make much progress financially that year.

    The student grant is of course a thing of the past, while an undergraduate degree is much more of a requirement now than it was then (in those days only 15% of my age group went on to university). Nowadays it's funded by personal debt, though not as much as it is in the USA. Still, higher education the UK has much more in common with the USA in terms of how much it costs the student, compared to the rest of Europe. This was never going to change and in fact was only ever going to get worse regardless of whether the UK remained in the EU.

    Likewise, access to benefits is worse, and much more restricted for those aged under 25 who are now explicitly expected to live in the family home and be dependent on their parents. Unemployment may be lower, though the way unemployment rates are calculated may be different (as described above I didn't fit into the unemployment statistics).

    People talk about zero-hours contracts as if they were a new thing, but maybe they're only new to the middle classes; I wouldn't know.

    I don't know about job role and pay ratios currently; I looked up vacancies for my local hospital but the only one advertised was for a porter; there was no cleaner's vacancy to compare it to.

    I can however testify that due to improved information systems, that kind of long queuing at the job centre is a thing of the past. During the relatively extensive amounts of time I spent there in the last 10 years, I was never kept waiting for more than an hour, and was usually seen within minutes of my allocated timeslot (I mean with an Oxbridge degree in languages and another in computer science, where else would I go? It was either there or join Zaphod Beeblebrox in his spaceship).

    I did eventually get one of those nice middle-class jobs mentioned above at the age of 38, after a lifetime of chance and/or pink-collar employment. Sadly it was too late for me ever to be able to afford to move out of the family home, so I can't tell you what it would be like if I were living in London instead of within commuting distance of it (note that commuting costs are as high or higher than housing costs in my town, but local wages are set at poverty level so no I could not save money by working locally). But I am at least middle-class now, and have been for several years. I can only claim to tick that one box out of your three, as I'm not a bloke (gee, wonder what influence that's had on my personal socioeconomic history).
    posted by tel3path at 7:04 AM on June 24, 2016 [25 favorites]


    There's a German word for this:

    Of course there is.
    posted by entropicamericana at 7:09 AM on June 24, 2016 [31 favorites]


    Uh my last response was a reply to theorique in case that wasn't clear.
    posted by tel3path at 7:09 AM on June 24, 2016


    Its going to be hilarious when the UK bails out its local industries and then the EU puts anti-dumping tariffs on the products.

    And when American Agribusiness comes in and completely destroys whatever's left of British agriculture once the EU welfare checks stop coming.
    posted by Chrischris at 7:09 AM on June 24, 2016 [5 favorites]


    And my expectation is that Britain will continue its established strategy of being different and worse than the rest of Europe, just like it was when it was in Europe, except now as people have said it won't be able to demand a bunch of exceptions to the rules it still has to follow.
    posted by tel3path at 7:11 AM on June 24, 2016 [8 favorites]


    Oh and I should add that APR on borrowing has gotten much much worse, to the point where I can't believe it is legal - I actually don't think it was legal when I was younger. You routinely see ads for payday loans with APRs in four figures today.
    posted by tel3path at 7:14 AM on June 24, 2016 [3 favorites]




    Hillary Clinton, on Facebook: We respect the choice the people of the United Kingdom have made.
    *jaw drops*

    Out of all of the few things that you'd think the Clintons would offer their vocal and unwavering support to, I would have put the EU at the top of their list. I've grown to expect Hillary to equivocate on a lot of issues, but not this.

    How is this a savvy move? The EU is practically the platonic ideal of the Clinton world-view, and she's not exactly going to be able to distance herself from its neoliberal ideology.
    posted by schmod at 7:15 AM on June 24, 2016 [3 favorites]


    What's she supposed to say? "First of all, fuck right off to the British voters, who are a bunch of dumb-dumbs who don't know their arses from their ballsacks."

    Every world leader is going to say some variant of what she said.
    posted by (Arsenio) Hall and (Warren) Oates at 7:17 AM on June 24, 2016 [105 favorites]


    telpath: Uh my last response was a reply to theorique in case that wasn't clear.

    I appreciate your detailed response. Despite my username, I find highly abstract discussions of global-scale political movements very hard to understand. It really helps when someone explains it in a tangible, "on the ground" way. Thanks again!
    posted by theorique at 7:17 AM on June 24, 2016 [3 favorites]


    No that's more along the lines of "I understand why he did it," as stated by for example Divine's mom when he ate that dogshit in the John Waters movie. It doesn't mean she actually thinks it's a good idea.
    posted by tel3path at 7:18 AM on June 24, 2016 [16 favorites]


    I can't imagine anyone actively running for office making a statement that doesn't respect the will of the voters.
    posted by Bulgaroktonos at 7:19 AM on June 24, 2016 [11 favorites]


    The way nationalists in other countries approve of this, like the right-wing in the Netherlands or Trump, reminds me of Lord Copper from Evelyn Waugh's Scoop: "The Beast stands for strong mutually antagonistic governments everywhere."
    posted by Alluring Mouthbreather at 7:19 AM on June 24, 2016 [6 favorites]


    "We respect the choice the people of the UK have made" is like a parent watching their toddler after it ate a box of fudge, rolling around the floor in agony, "while I respect the choice you've made here..."
    posted by (Arsenio) Hall and (Warren) Oates at 7:20 AM on June 24, 2016 [29 favorites]


    Cornwall has issued an urgent plea for reassurance that it will not be worse off following the Brexit vote. The county has received "significant amounts" of funding from the EU for the past 15 years due to its "relatively weak economy". But, following the vote to leave the Union, the council says it is seeking urgent reassurance money allocated to it will still be received.

    "Yeah, baby, I'm leaving you, but that's no reason why we still can't shag..."
    posted by Capt. Renault at 7:20 AM on June 24, 2016 [7 favorites]


    Every world leader is going to say some variant of what she said.

    The White House statement so far was much more ominous.
    posted by T.D. Strange at 7:20 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    The darkest timeline is if Trump wins in November too. Can you imagine those state visits?

    Nah, PM Ford needs to be in power up north to complete the Anglo trifecta.
    posted by Apocryphon at 7:20 AM on June 24, 2016


    I see Cameron's resigned.
    posted by joseph conrad is fully awesome at 7:24 AM on June 24, 2016


    The Politics of Anger
    It’s not just Trump. Authoritarian populism is rising across the West. Here’s why. - "Populist authoritarianism can best be explained as a cultural backlash in Western societies against long-term, ongoing social change."
    posted by the man of twists and turns at 7:25 AM on June 24, 2016 [3 favorites]


    Wait. 71% of the people who voted Leave think **THE INTERNET** is a force for ill?

    Wow.

    And RIP to the United Kingdom, 309 years was a good run I suppose. Not only is Scotland firing up the exit engines again, people are also talking about Wales leaving as well. I'm not sure what you'd call the coalition between Northern Ireland and England, but I don't think calling it "the United Kingdom" is going to work.
    posted by sotonohito at 7:25 AM on June 24, 2016 [3 favorites]


    Is this what Trump means by Scotland going wild over the vote?
    posted by like_neon at 7:26 AM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


    I appreciate your detailed response. Despite my username, I find highly abstract discussions of global-scale political movements very hard to understand. It really helps when someone explains it in a tangible, "on the ground" way. Thanks again!
    posted by theorique at 10:17 AM on June 24


    Ironique.
    posted by leotrotsky at 7:26 AM on June 24, 2016 [3 favorites]


    Looking at that polling map it seems clear to me that a lot of Scotland is most likely fuming pissed right now.

    If the UK holds together for 5 more years well color me impressed.
    posted by Annika Cicada at 7:27 AM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


    Why would Wales say they want to leave the UK? They voted to leave the EU (52%). They are one of the reasons the outcome is what it is.
    posted by like_neon at 7:28 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    Not only is Scotland firing up the exit engines again, people are also talking about Wales leaving as well. I'm not sure what you'd call the coalition between Northern Ireland and England, but I don't think calling it "the United Kingdom" is going to work.

    Wait, isn't it Northern Ireland that was pro-Remain and Wales that was pro-Leave?
    posted by saturday_morning at 7:29 AM on June 24, 2016


    I've seen this a lot on Twitter -- "Let this be a warning about Trump!" Well, okay. I mean I'm petrified that Trump will be elected. What the hell do you want me to do about it? The only people who can guarantee that Trump is not elected are Republicans and Republican-leaning independents standing up to him and saying "NO." If they don't do that, then it's a 50/50 race. Since I'm not one of those people I'm not really sure what I'm supposed to do to "wake up" to the danger that Trump is.

    I think there are multiple parallels, and multiple lessons that can be learned and applied. The big one, as far as I'm concerned, is that decisions aren't just made by those who show up, but by those who don't. I have several lefty Democrat friends who are making noises about not bothering to show up to vote in November. The election could be decided by them, just as surely as it could be decided by the people you're talking about.

    The other big takeaway, as far as I'm concerned, is that plenty of the surrogates of the Remain camp seemed to think the xenophobia of the loudest voices in the Leave camp would do sufficient damage, that they didn't need to present a compelling counter-narrative. I see a lot of people treating Trump this way. "Oh, it's fine, he's so unhinged and racist and evil, and his supporters are so horrible, he couldn't possibly win." No. That kind of complacency invites fascism. You need a compelling, affirmative argument. (This is not to say that *nobody* in the Remain camp was presenting affirmative arguments, but there was a hell of a lot of complacency there for a while, until people realized the threat of Leave winning was real.)
    posted by duffell at 7:29 AM on June 24, 2016 [38 favorites]


    She could have criticized the outcome without criticizing the path by which they got there. Paul Ryan was democratically elected, and Clinton makes no secret of disagreeing with that outcome.

    Also, why bundle that statement with platitudes like "America's steadfast commitment to the special relationship with Britain"?

    Just because the decision was made democratically doesn't mean that the US needs to agree with it. Actions have consequences, and the British people just made a decision that seriously jeopardizes American interests in Europe.

    If this is how Britain treats its alliances, every single one of Britain's allies needs to be carefully reevaluating its relationships with the UK right now, and the US is no exception. The "special relationship" exists because it's mutually beneficial for the UK and US.

    It just got a lot less attractive, and a lot more risky for the US.
    posted by schmod at 7:31 AM on June 24, 2016 [8 favorites]


    Cornwall has issued an urgent plea for reassurance that it will not be worse off following the Brexit vote. The county has received "significant amounts" of funding from the EU for the past 15 years due to its "relatively weak economy". But, following the vote to leave the Union, the council says it is seeking urgent reassurance money allocated to it will still be received.


    That's pathetic.

    And it's just as pathetic as all the UK politicians who will blame all the problems the UK will face on the EU. And that's what it is really all about, isn't it? Bitching rights.

    They could have had the best of both worlds: Endless bitching about the EU while enjoying all the benefits. Now they'll just keep the bitching rights, but nobody will care, because it will be increasingly irrelevant what UK politicians say.

    The EU should take Scotland and possibly Northern Ireland, but the UK (or what will be left of it) can keep Cornwall.
    And, as noted above, it looks like Spain would welcome Gibraltar with open arms.
    posted by sour cream at 7:33 AM on June 24, 2016 [3 favorites]


    Krugman is cautiously optimistic-ish about the economics, less so about the politics:
    Now, it’s true that world stock markets are down; so are interest rates around the world, presumably reflecting fears of economic weakness that will force central banks to keep monetary policy very loose. Why these fears?

    One answer is that uncertainty might depress investment. We don’t know how the process of Brexit plays out, and I could see CEOs choosing to delay spending until matter clarify.
    ...

    Where I think there has been real additional damage done, damage that wouldn’t have happened but for Cameron’s policy malfeasance, is within the UK itself. I am of course not an expert here, but it looks all too likely that the vote will both empower the worst elements in British political life and lead to the breakup of the UK itself. Prime Minister Boris looks a lot more likely than President Donald; but he may find himself Prime Minister of England – full stop.
    posted by palindromic at 7:34 AM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


    Juncker: "We now expect the United Kingdom government to give effect to this decision of the British people as soon as possible, however painful that process may be. Any delay would unnecessarily prolong uncertainty."

    Dumb question: since the Leave campaign wants to take things slow, and the EU itself would look for a quick exit, is there any mechanism for the EU to take control of the process, rather than wait for the UK to invoke Article 50? Or can the EU only speed things up for itself by saying 'nope' on any point of negotiation?
    posted by Capt. Renault at 7:34 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    Wait. 71% of the people who voted Leave think **THE INTERNET** is a force for ill?

    I think that's backwards: 71% of the people who think the Internet is a force for ill voted Leave.
    posted by stopgap at 7:37 AM on June 24, 2016 [7 favorites]


    Why would Wales say they want to leave the UK?

    Self-destructive nationalist pride in the style of Nigel Farage? Or maybe they're just in the mood for leaving things.
    posted by sfenders at 7:37 AM on June 24, 2016 [3 favorites]


    Outside my daughter's school today and spoke to one of the dads

    "How did you vote?"
    "Well, I did around 500 hours of research into both sides and came up with Remain. Yourself?"
    "Oh me? Out!"
    "How many hours of research did you do?"
    "None"
    "You've just binned the NHS then mate"
    "No, we've got £350 million pound a week. It'll be great"
    "..."
    posted by longbaugh at 7:37 AM on June 24, 2016 [57 favorites]


    is there any mechanism for the EU to take control of the process, rather than wait for the UK to invoke Article 50?

    Until Article 50 is invoked, the UK has not formally stated its intention of leaving the EU. All that has happened is that a non-binding referendum has occurred.

    Nobody in the UK Parliament seems eager to pull that lever right away, oddly enough. Cameron basically punted it off to the next guy.
    posted by vacapinta at 7:39 AM on June 24, 2016 [4 favorites]


    Cameron is just trying to slow things down hoping that someone will come up with a sensible, soft sort of exit, right?
    posted by Alluring Mouthbreather at 7:40 AM on June 24, 2016 [3 favorites]


    I work for a multinational company with subsidiaries all over the world. We have a major corporate entity in London and another in corporate entity in Paris. There is talk of expanding our team's operations to create an EU specific security team (that I have been advocating hard to lead hahaha) and up until last night I think all of us assumed that expansion would be in our major London hub but this throws all that into question.

    I would say if the UK offers up some kind of safe harbor again (the EU really did make my work life a nightmare when they revoked safe harbor) that the UK could see a huge migration of hosted technology services out of the EU.

    So, there's some glimmers of hope there I suppose. If I were leading scotland I would look to negotiate a data sharing and privacy agreement that is attractive to business AND respectful and cooperative with the EU (both sides make valid points and there is room to negotiate even though it may be frustrating as hell) then start courting businesses HARD to move their tech operations to Glasgow and Edinburgh. Then vote to leave the UK. IMO this looks like Scotland's moment to seize and win.
    posted by Annika Cicada at 7:41 AM on June 24, 2016 [6 favorites]


    You need a compelling, affirmative argument.

    So that's the thing- did the Remain campaign address the grievances of the Leave folks by promising that if the UK stayed, they would push for reforms, as in plan X, Y, and Zed to better the relationship between the country and the EU, and the nature of the EU itself? Because if all they did was to defend the status quo and went "these are the blessings you're enjoying because of the EU", then honestly that's not something that resonates with voters. The public is spoiled and takes blessings for granted. It's not until they're taken away that they start to miss them, as we're about to see now. Remain should have focused on promising to make the EU a better and more compelling place to be in.
    posted by Apocryphon at 7:42 AM on June 24, 2016 [4 favorites]


    I think that's his plan, yes.

    I also think that the EU isn't going to let him have it.

    Sorry fuckers, you voted to leave, don't let the door hit you on the way out seems to be the sentiment from EU leadership.
    posted by sotonohito at 7:42 AM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


    Nobody in the UK Parliament seems eager to pull that lever right away, oddly enough. Cameron basically punted it off to the next guy.

    Understood -- I'm asking if there's a lever the EU itself can pull.
    posted by Capt. Renault at 7:42 AM on June 24, 2016


    To be honest I think Boris and Gove feel the same way. I don't think any of them thought they'd actually win. They look like they're shitting themselves - look at Boris's speech. "We'll always be part of Europe", "No need to do anything hasty".

    These fuckers have wrecked the economy, ruined EU citizens' lives, and caused a disastrous lurch to the right in British politics, and it was all just Boris larking about for the cameras.
    posted by tinkletown at 7:45 AM on June 24, 2016 [57 favorites]


    Help me, someone in my facebook feed said they are looking forward to visiting the UK this fall because the atmosphere will be like when Thatcher resigned.
    posted by maggiemaggie at 7:50 AM on June 24, 2016 [5 favorites]


    Proper fucking V for Vendetta speech here from Nigel Farage.

    Dear Alan Moore,

    We hereby apologize for making fun of you for being a curmudgeonly eccentric who believed in magic. We now realize that you are an actual wizard, perhaps even a cranky reincarnation of Merlin himself, come to warn England of its impending doom.

    Sincerely,

    The rest of the world

    P.S. - That scene in the V for Vendetta film adaptation where everything gets blown up is still kinda cool, though.
    posted by zombieflanders at 7:51 AM on June 24, 2016 [26 favorites]


    Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard.

    I'm just sorry about all the people who will get it long and hard. I'm sorry that rampant xenophobia won't suddenly disappear. I'm sorry for the UK I loved.
    posted by ersatz at 7:51 AM on June 24, 2016 [9 favorites]


    I'd wager that the EU is now very worried that if they allow Parliament to slow-walk the process Brexit will become a long-term political football and create continuing uncertainty just as bad as the impacts of yesterday's referendum as polls and general-election results shift. Better to rip off the bandage and be done with it.
    posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 7:52 AM on June 24, 2016 [3 favorites]


    I'm talking to my London counterparts on Slack and their mood is "saddened and frustrated". They all know this will mean a LOT of pain for a long long time to come.
    posted by Annika Cicada at 7:52 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    "Just because the decision was made democratically doesn't mean that the US needs to agree with it. Actions have consequences, and the British people just made a decision that seriously jeopardizes American interests in Europe."
    ...Yes is really fucking does.

    Bleeding so that the whole world has the same rights to self determination that we do is the sum total of everything noble or just about American foreign policy for the last hundred years. Its the fucking point. We fought WWII in defense of the Atlantic Charter, which commits us to doing exactly that, and we fought WWI in defense of the same principles. We don't need to like the shit bucket that the UK has now decided to pour all over itself, and Hilary's statement makes it abundantly clear that she doesn't like it or the global mess that its making, but we sure as fuck need to respect it. If democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard, then thats our bag.

    What a ridiculous thing to fault her for.
    posted by Blasdelb at 7:53 AM on June 24, 2016 [38 favorites]


    BBC: eight reasons Leave won.

    So the markets have fallen? Hmm, I seem to recall this happening before, black wednesday in the 80s? and again in the 90s, and again in the financial crash. They always bounce back though, look at them now, highest levels ever!
    posted by marienbad at 7:54 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    Brexit: Australians overseas hit by Commonwealth Bank suspension of currency exchange

    Australians around the world are reporting an inability to access their money after the Commonwealth Bank suspended currency exchanges in the wake of the Brexit referendum result.
    posted by moody cow at 7:56 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    So the markets have fallen? Hmm, I seem to recall this happening before, black wednesday in the 80s? and again in the 90s, and again in the financial crash. They always bounce back though, look at them now, highest levels ever!

    I'm sure that's of great consolation to the monied elites and corporate interests that can afford take a decades-long view and have the cash to scoop bargains in recession.
    posted by snuffleupagus at 7:56 AM on June 24, 2016 [31 favorites]




    So the markets have fallen? Hmm, I seem to recall this happening before, black wednesday in the 80s? and again in the 90s, and again in the financial crash. They always bounce back though, look at them now, highest levels ever!

    And a greater number of people had to be put on the dole to get them to bounce back each time.

    May I submit "thunderingly huge levels of myopia" as reason number 9 on your list?
    posted by EmpressCallipygos at 7:57 AM on June 24, 2016 [9 favorites]


    (Arsenio) Hall and (Warren) Oates, not sure if your comment was being sarcastic, but I do think it's comforting people are doing some minimal research on things outside of their own immediate problems.
    posted by roomthreeseventeen at 7:58 AM on June 24, 2016


    And the EU shows its true colours, when it doesn't get its own way:

    "EU referendum: UK 'must not delay leaving'" - "Mr Juncker went into crisis talks with European parliament president Martin Schulz, president of the European Council Donald Tusk and Dutch PM Mark Rutte on Friday morning... They added that the deal agreed with Mr Cameron in February to protect London's financial markets, curb immigration and opt out of closer union "ceases to exist" and "there will be no renegotiation"."

    Ceases to exist? Wow, just shows what the EU is really like.

    Also remember - the EU is conducting secret negotiations over TTiP - they were planing to sell us all out to American Corporations in secret, no-one is allowed to talk about this, it is all done behind closed doors and behind our backs.

    Unfortunately - 2 MPs submit "No confidence" motion in Corbyn.
    posted by marienbad at 7:59 AM on June 24, 2016 [3 favorites]


    1. Is drain cleaner bad for you?
    2. What happens when you drink drain cleaner?
    3. Why do I feel so bad after drinking the drain cleaner?
    4. What are the main ingredients in drain cleaner?
    5. How can I return the rest of the drain cleaner?
    posted by theodolite at 8:00 AM on June 24, 2016 [67 favorites]


    Comforting.

    This friends, is why direct democracy is not exactly all that feasible or desirable.
    posted by Annika Cicada at 8:00 AM on June 24, 2016 [5 favorites]


    And the EU shows its true colours, when it doesn't get its own way

    The UK said it's taking its ball and going home, and you're complaining that the EU is saying 'don't let the door hit your ass on the way out?'
    posted by snuffleupagus at 8:01 AM on June 24, 2016 [117 favorites]


    Regarding Scotland having to apply for EU membership in the event of an independence vote: would it be possible for the EU to choose to recognize Scotland as the successor state to the United Kingdom, thus allowing (UK minus Scotland) to leave the EU and Scotland to seamlessly remain a member state?

    I mean, the international community recognized Russia as the successor state to the USSR for lots of good reasons, but it could theoretically have chosen to recognize, I dunno, Ukraine or Kazakhstan or something.
    posted by jedicus at 8:02 AM on June 24, 2016 [6 favorites]


    What was that about "thunderingly huge levels of myopia" again?
    posted by tocts at 8:02 AM on June 24, 2016 [3 favorites]


    (Arsenio) Hall and (Warren) Oates, not sure if your comment was being sarcastic, but I do think it's comforting people are doing some minimal research on things outside of their own immediate problems.

    I think the point there was that maybe voters should have googled things like "what is the EU" and "what happens if we leave the EU" *before* the vote.
    posted by middleclasstool at 8:03 AM on June 24, 2016 [12 favorites]


    It looks like a nation-level version of "Hold my beer and watch this!"
    posted by elgilito at 8:04 AM on June 24, 2016 [22 favorites]


    I think the point there was that maybe voters should have googled things like "what is the EU" and "what happens if we leave the EU" *before* the vote.

    I see. I didn't realize the Google trends was from UK only.
    posted by roomthreeseventeen at 8:05 AM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


    Also remember - the EU is conducting secret negotiations over TTiP - they were planing to sell us all out to American Corporations in secret, no-one is allowed to talk about this, it is all done behind closed doors and behind our backs.

    No, these days Selling Out to American Corporations is done out in the open. It's good for stock prices and Twitter mentions.
    posted by snuffleupagus at 8:05 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    And the EU shows its true colours, when it doesn't get its own way

    How exactly is the EU supposed to behave when one of its members votes to leave? The UK can't vote to leave and then whine when the EU says, "OK please go."
    posted by Mavri at 8:05 AM on June 24, 2016 [22 favorites]


    the image literally says "in the UK since Brexit result was announced"
    posted by Krom Tatman at 8:06 AM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


    "Ceases to exist? Wow, just shows what the EU is really like."
    You understand that this happening is written into the text of the agreement right? Like, the agreement is only valid so long as the UK stays in the EU and it was invalidated by the British public who can read the agreement for themselves not some faceless "Brussels Bureaucrat" right? And here I though this was all about sovereignty and taking responsibility, well you've got it, good and hard.
    "As agreed, the “New Settlement for the United Kingdom within the European Union”, reached at the European Council on 18-19 February 2016, will now not take effect and ceases to exist. There will be no renegotiation."
    posted by Blasdelb at 8:07 AM on June 24, 2016 [55 favorites]


    the image literally says "in the UK since Brexit result was announced"

    Sorry, it was hard for me to see.
    posted by roomthreeseventeen at 8:07 AM on June 24, 2016


    And the EU shows its true colours, when it doesn't get its own way

    Terribly unfair of them to allow the UK to negotiate special concessions to remain in the union and then declare those concessions invalid when the UK leaves anyway. Why won't they just let Britain unilaterally decide everything?
    posted by Pater Aletheias at 8:07 AM on June 24, 2016 [56 favorites]


    "And a greater number of people had to be put on the dole to get them to bounce back each time."
    posted by EmpressCallipygos

    UK unemployment figures. As you can see it was at 9.7 and then 10 % before and only went up slightly after, and then came down. (aug 92 onwards)
    posted by marienbad at 8:08 AM on June 24, 2016


    And the EU shows its true colours, when it doesn't get its own way

    How exactly is the EU supposed to behave when one of its members votes to leave? The UK can't vote to leave and then whine when the EU says, "OK please go."


    Also, that's how they prevent everyone else from rushing to the exits. When folks see the negative consequences of departure for the UK, all the other $exit movements will likely lose steam.
    posted by leotrotsky at 8:08 AM on June 24, 2016 [4 favorites]


    Dow starting to trend downward again.

    And then ticked back up again. This is going to be such a bizzare day.
    posted by snuffleupagus at 8:09 AM on June 24, 2016




    Okay, so we can just stop paying in then, right? All that money we pay each week, no more paying it. Ok, I have to go to my second job now so cant stay and talk about this, although there isn't much point, it is done, we are out.
    posted by marienbad at 8:09 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    From The cstross link above:
    "CASE NIGHTMARE TWEED"

    indeed.
    posted by ArgentCorvid at 8:09 AM on June 24, 2016 [3 favorites]


    Also remember - the EU is conducting secret negotiations over TTiP - they were planing to sell us all out to American Corporations in secret, no-one is allowed to talk about this, it is all done behind closed doors and behind our backs.

    And now you've just made it so much easier and cheaper for us to buy!
    posted by Chrischris at 8:11 AM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


    Exactly. People who have never had to emigrate don't understand that it's a lot of money in paperwork alone to do so. You pay your money, think you do everything right, and they can still reject you. You don't get that money back!

    That's not all it costs either. It costs you regular contact with your best friends and family. It costs you all those tax breaks you were eligible for (student loan interest, mortgage interest, etc..), it cost you all the benefits you will not be entitled to in the country you move to, it will cost you the lag time until you get a work visa, it costs your professional network, it costs you a lot of your education's reputation, it costs you the understanding of your work history, it costs you your hard earned social and historical understanding of the society you live in, it costs you the time it takes to figure out how things work, and it costs you your franchise.

    And if you move to the United States it might just cost you your sanity every four years.

    International immigration is a pretty raw deal for the first generation unless where you are coming from is a failed state or are an EU citizen moving within the EU.
    posted by srboisvert at 8:12 AM on June 24, 2016 [19 favorites]


    Understood -- I'm asking if there's a lever the EU itself can pull.

    No. As I understand things, only a member country can invoke Article 50 and begin the process of leaving the EU. The referendum in the UK is not binding on Parliament - Parliament defends it’s sovereignty doggedly - and Parliament will invoke Article 50 when it’s good and ready and not before.

    See Jack Of Kent for some details.
    posted by pharm at 8:13 AM on June 24, 2016 [5 favorites]


    It's like that last scene in Animal Farm, but instead of pigs and humans becoming indistinguishable, it's fervent Brexiters and Donald Trump.
    posted by zombieflanders at 8:13 AM on June 24, 2016




    Okay, so we can just stop paying in then, right? All that money we pay each week, no more paying it. Ok, I have to go to my second job now so cant stay and talk about this, although there isn't much point, it is done, we are out.


    This spectacular anti-fact know-nothingism is the future of Britain England folks.

    Enjoy your job while it lasts.
    posted by lalochezia at 8:14 AM on June 24, 2016 [50 favorites]


    All that money we pay each week, no more paying it.

    You'll be paying to to access the common markets under treaty, or to replace EU subsidies to localities.

    The time to check the arithmetic behind the bus slogans was before the vote.

    Ok, I have to go to my second job now so cant stay and talk about this


    You should probably take a sick day (while you have them) and apply for a third job.
    posted by snuffleupagus at 8:14 AM on June 24, 2016 [20 favorites]


    The Dow has not had the predicted dramatic drop. "DJIA plunged to ... where it was last week" just doesn't have as much exciting drama I guess. Nor "GBP plunges to about where it was in January and march!!"

    I think the people trying to make these part of a crushing-consequences-of-this-stupidity story are mostly revealing that they have no perspective and no idea what they're talking about and are just making up a Kiplingesque just-so story (or learning that the financial press does this constantly).
    posted by rr at 8:14 AM on June 24, 2016 [5 favorites]



    @farcentrist: "#Brexit to be followed by Grexit. Departugal. Italeave. Fruckoff. Czechout. Oustria. Finish. Slovakout. Latervia. Byegium"
    posted by Golden Eternity at 8:16 AM on June 24, 2016 [45 favorites]


    I think the people trying to make these part of a crushing-consequences-of-this-stupidity story are mostly revealing that they have no perspective

    Whereas less than a day of market data provides the most magisterial of perspectives for the opposite position, somehow.
    posted by snuffleupagus at 8:17 AM on June 24, 2016 [19 favorites]




    every time there's the potential for some awful election result in the US, people say they're going to move to Canada

    That's not far enough away from President Trump, unless you're planning to move to Rankin Inlet.
    posted by the road and the damned at 8:18 AM on June 24, 2016


    re. "the markets":

    I really do believe Cameron resigning immediately and saying "wait until october" sent the global message that was needed to forestall serious market churn today. What we're seeing is the market factoring that in.

    So basically instead of ripping the transmission out by trying to reverse on the highway we're gonna ride the clutch for a few hundred miles until it burns out. At least we can plan for an exit that way.
    posted by Annika Cicada at 8:18 AM on June 24, 2016 [12 favorites]


    Dow / S&P / Nasdaq are all down about 2-3%. (link may not be archival quality)

    It's a loss but not a huge one. Biggest losses were off the open, and a slight recovery throughout the morning.
    posted by theorique at 8:20 AM on June 24, 2016


    So I'll say that my heart has its own sovereignty;

    Thanks for this.
    posted by urbanwhaleshark at 8:21 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    So - I work for an institution that has headquarters offices in New York City, in London, in Brussels, and in Geneva; it is helmed by a former British MP; and operates in about 50 other countries worldwide.

    I of course cannot divulge the content of the conversations happening around the office today, but they're reaaaaaal interesting.
    posted by EmpressCallipygos at 8:22 AM on June 24, 2016 [28 favorites]


    @nicoleperlroth: The most articulate take on #Brexit is actually this FT reader comment today:
    A quick note on the first three tragedies. Firstly, it was the working classes who voted for us to leave because they were economically disregarded and it is they who will suffer the most in the short term from the dearth of jobs and investment. They have merely swapped one distant and unreachable elite for another one. Secondly, the younger generation has lost the right to live and work in 27 other countries. We will never know the full extent of the lost opportunities, friendships, marriages and experiences we will be denied. Freedom of movement was taken away by our parents, uncles, and grandparents in a parting blow to a generation that was already drowning in the debts of our predecessors. Thirdly and perhaps most significantly, we now live in a post-factual democracy. When the facts met the myths they were as useless as bullets bouncing off the bodies of aliens in a HG Wells novel. When Michael Gove said 'the British people are sick of experts' he was right. But can anybody tell me the last time a prevailing culture of anti-intellectualism has lead to anything other than bigotry?
    posted by Kabanos at 8:23 AM on June 24, 2016 [100 favorites]


    Grexit. Departugal. Italeave. Fruckoff. Czechout. Oustria. Finish. Slovakout. Latervia. Byegium

    Several of these are actual Marvel universe European countries.
    posted by Artw at 8:25 AM on June 24, 2016 [44 favorites]


    #Brexit to be followed by Grexit. Departugal. Italeave. Fruckoff. Czechout. Oustria. Finish. Slovakout. Latervia. Byegium"

    Latvia con dios.
    posted by mochapickle at 8:27 AM on June 24, 2016 [23 favorites]


    I think there are multiple parallels, and multiple lessons that can be learned and applied. The big one, as far as I'm concerned, is that decisions aren't just made by those who show up, but by those who don't. I have several lefty Democrat friends who are making noises about not bothering to show up to vote in November. The election could be decided by them

    I'm going to eat crow now, because this was my comment; apparently turnout for the Brexit vote was pretty damn high. Turnout was reliably higher for older voters than younger ones, but still high all around. And Leave won. It's Bloody Mary time.
    posted by duffell at 8:28 AM on June 24, 2016 [4 favorites]




    "GBP plunges to about where it was in January and march!!"

    As you can plainly see on the chart, there's nothing unsual going on at all.
    posted by sfenders at 8:30 AM on June 24, 2016 [10 favorites]


    So - I work for an institution that has headquarters offices in New York City, in London, in Brussels, and in Geneva; it is helmed by a former British MP; and operates in about 50 other countries worldwide.

    I of course cannot divulge the content of the conversations happening around the office today, but they're reaaaaaal interesting.


    You're not going to leave us hanging like that, shurely?
    posted by progosk at 8:32 AM on June 24, 2016


    Time to get my Irish passport. I had forgot in the panic that I have dual Irish and British nationality, so I'll still get all the freedom of movement as an Irish citizen (at least I fucking better). As will my brother, who lives in London but whose girlfriend is French. As will my nieces growing up and I'm glad because the thing that was angering me most was the thought of the freedom of movement that had been taken from them. I want them to have opportunities we had totally taken for granted until some people decided that wasn't bloody good enough. We were members of an exclusive club and we didn't want to pay the membership fees but we wanted all the perks and discounts.
    posted by billiebee at 8:36 AM on June 24, 2016 [13 favorites]


    "We're only making plans for Nigel. He's got his future in British Steel a call center handling complaints from Angry Midwestern Americans, who can't understand his goddamned accent."
    posted by Chrischris at 8:36 AM on June 24, 2016 [7 favorites]


    Fruckoff.
    Still holding out for "Briexit".
    posted by phooky at 8:38 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    As you can plainly see on the chart, there's nothing unsual going on at all.

    It's like the "THIS IS FINE" Gunshow comic morphed into time series chart.
    posted by tonycpsu at 8:42 AM on June 24, 2016 [5 favorites]


    I work for an institution that has headquarters offices in New York City, in London, in Brussels, and in Geneva; it is helmed by a former British MP; and operates in about 50 other countries worldwide.
    --------------------
    You're not going to leave us hanging like that, shurely?

    International Rescue Committee?

    posted by Mister Bijou at 8:43 AM on June 24, 2016


    The UK vote to leave the EU seems to be roughly equivalent to the USA electing Donald Trump. "I'm pissed off, I don't like things the way they are, so what the hell, I'll give whiskey and car keys to a 12 year old."
    posted by quonsar II: smock fishpants and the temple of foon at 8:43 AM on June 24, 2016 [6 favorites]


    I'm convinced Cameron resigned because, having gone from fucking a pig to fucking the UK, he looks ahead and sees no higher mountains to climb.
    posted by Pope Guilty at 8:43 AM on June 24, 2016 [29 favorites]


    Next on the list: America. I've got an American spouse of 2+ year (in a few months). We've got all our papers and evidence. It'll be at least $5k for my visa - more if we run on any snags at all - and can take 16 month.

    Leave winning still sucks, but:

    Just to note that unless your case is complicated for some reason (most commonly: you have a criminal record), you can absolutely do marriage-based immigration to the US without paying an attorney. It's fussy and detail-oriented but not actually difficult and there are good communities at visajourney and elsewhere to help make it relatively simple. It'll still cost in the ballpark of USD 1K, but that's at least less than 5K.
    posted by ROU_Xenophobe at 8:51 AM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


    Brexit is a horrible outcome, but the only way it could have been stopped is if liberals, progressives, leftists alike did not buy into EU propaganda in the first place.

    Ah, the inevitable "It's your own fault" response.
    posted by aught at 8:51 AM on June 24, 2016 [12 favorites]


    "I'm pissed off, I don't like things the way they are, so what the hell, I'll give whiskey and car keys to a 12 year old."

    You have to provide a reasonable alternative to giving the whiskey and car keys to a 12 year old. You have to listen to grievances and take them very seriously, even if you yourself don't agree. The grief and upset are very real. More than anything else I'm upset by the condescension I'm seeing this morning.
    posted by phooky at 8:51 AM on June 24, 2016 [11 favorites]


    Footage of Boris Johnson giving speeches today is not encouraging. There's a real look of fear in his eyes. He looks small and scared. Coupled with Farage's premature concession last night, it really does give the impression of a piece of political brinkmanship that got well out of control. Nobody really wanted this, not even large chunks of the Leave team.

    I've always felt this way about Quebec separatism in Canada. It's fun thought experiment, drinking gripe and political power lever right up until somebody actually pulls the lever all the way over to separate and then Quebec is fucked.

    Everybody knows this including the separatists but they have to walk the knife's edge in order to make their threat credible so they can get political concessions.

    The last referendum was so close they don't dare seriously call for another for fear that they would actually win and by winning lose.
    posted by srboisvert at 8:53 AM on June 24, 2016 [10 favorites]


    You have to provide a reasonable alternative to giving the whiskey and car keys to a 12 year old.

    Not giving whiskey and car keys to a 12 year old.
    posted by (Arsenio) Hall and (Warren) Oates at 8:53 AM on June 24, 2016 [71 favorites]


    I saw this retweeted by a fellow mefite, and have transcribed it here:
    I am actively searching through Facebook for people celebrating the Brexit leave victory, but the filter bubble is SO strong, and extends SO far into things like Facebook's custom search that I can't find anyone who is happy *despite the fact that over half the country is clearly jubilant today* and despite the fact that I'm *actively* looking to hear what they are saying.

    This echo-chamber problem is now SO severe and SO chronic that I can only only beg any friends I have who actually work for Facebook and other major social media and technology to urgently tell their leaders that to not act on this problem now is tantamount to actively supporting and funding the tearing apart of the fabric of our societies. Just because they aren't like anarchists or terrorists - the effect is the same, we're getting countries where one half just doesn't know anything at all about the other.

    It's in the power of people like Mark Zuckerberg to do something about this, if they're strong enough and wise enough to swap a little shareholder value for the welfare of whole nations, and the world as a whole.
    posted by duffell at 8:55 AM on June 24, 2016 [47 favorites]


    @farcentrist: "#Brexit to be followed by Grexit. Departugal. Italeave. Fruckoff. Czechout. Oustria. Finish. Slovakout. Latervia. Byegium"

    Wow, the rest of that dude's Twitter feed sure is horribly racist though
    posted by oulipian at 8:55 AM on June 24, 2016


    International Rescue Committee?

    I do work for the IRC, yes.

    And for the record, when I refer to conversations around the office, I'm talking about "me and my buddies around the water cooler" rather than "official statements from anyone". It's just a really, really different mindset from what I suspect I'd be finding at my old job in finance; even though my old job was at UBS, the actual people who worked in the building were still kind of mono-national in population, as opposed to here where just off the top of my head I can think of co-workers from eight different countries.
    posted by EmpressCallipygos at 8:55 AM on June 24, 2016 [3 favorites]


    Ah, the inevitable "It's your own fault" response.

    I find "Look what you made me do to you" more and more galling the older I get.
    posted by Pope Guilty at 8:57 AM on June 24, 2016 [18 favorites]


    Thanks, ROU_Xenophobe - there's a few complications (nothing bad, just a mix of nationalities and countries of residence demanding an inordinate amount of extra paperwork), plus my wife is in the UK rather than the US... but mostly we've seen what happens when people try it themselves - or even try it with bad lawyers! - to want to risk it. Though I'm always open for advice from people who've been through the process!
    posted by harujion at 8:58 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    That's a good point about the echo chambers/uncrossable divisions, but it may mainly be class divisions simply replicating themselves online.

    Earlier today I have literally been sat in fancy offices of glass and steel in London with an atmosphere of total shock among zero humans who voted Leave; while outside you could regularly hear horns blowing in celebration as vans went by.
    posted by Coda Tronca at 8:58 AM on June 24, 2016 [7 favorites]


    Dear American voters:

    Don't be like this idiot come November. Your vote has actual consequences.

    Best,
    Rest of the World
    posted by the cydonian at 8:58 AM on June 24, 2016 [10 favorites]


    Just because they aren't like anarchists or terrorists - the effect is the same, we're getting countries where one half just doesn't know anything at all about the other.

    At the risk of sounding the tinfoil haberdasher, I think that may be by design.
    posted by Mooski at 8:59 AM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


    Not giving whiskey and car keys to a 12 year old.
    This is precisely the kind of reaction that I'm concerned about.
    posted by phooky at 8:59 AM on June 24, 2016


    Brexit is a horrible outcome, but the only way it could have been stopped is if liberals, progressives, leftists alike did not buy into EU propaganda in the first place.

    Ah, the inevitable "It's your own fault" response.


    You've got to admit, tho, that's quite a crippling blow the best just delivered to the good.
    posted by octobersurprise at 8:59 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    You have to provide a reasonable alternative to giving the whiskey and car keys to a 12 year old.

    Not if your current problem is that you keep getting run over by bad drivers.

    (12-year olds are typically tall enough to reach the pedals, now if the suggestion involved a 3-year old...)
    posted by effbot at 9:01 AM on June 24, 2016


    This is precisely the kind of reaction that I'm concerned about.

    Hey everybody, just a heads-up that the Brexit was my fault.
    posted by (Arsenio) Hall and (Warren) Oates at 9:02 AM on June 24, 2016 [16 favorites]


    I know a lot of leavers on Facebook. And the mood is oddly sombre. I was expecting a load of triumphalist "suck it lefties" stuff and its just not there. There's a lot of, as I said up thread, statements about it being best in the long run, but I think that the realisation that there's going to be a long old slog to actual brexit has dampened spirits somewhat.
    posted by threetwentytwo at 9:02 AM on June 24, 2016 [3 favorites]


    12-year olds are typically tall enough to reach the pedals

    given enough whiskey it ceases to matter how long the legs are.
    posted by quonsar II: smock fishpants and the temple of foon at 9:02 AM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


    You know it's a dark day when we're in a thread about elections and the quidnunc kid's comments aren't jokes about voting for him...
    posted by DynamiteToast at 9:03 AM on June 24, 2016 [43 favorites]


    On one hand, there seem to many idiots who voted Leave who thought it wouldn't happen or that their vote somehow "wouldn't count." On the other, can you imagine the amount of disenfranchisement it takes to get to that point?

    I'd be sympathetic, but since so much of the Leave message seems to be about taking back responsibility, it's their own fault. You can say that those who disagree somehow owe them a "meaningful alternative" but part of being a voter is knowing that your vote against the status quo is GOING TO DISRUPT THE STATUS QUO.
    posted by MCMikeNamara at 9:03 AM on June 24, 2016 [12 favorites]


    You know it's a dark day when we're in a thread about elections and the quidnunc kid's comments aren't jokes about voting for him...

    that's because he left
    posted by rorgy at 9:04 AM on June 24, 2016


    Speaking of literal Nazis, the Sun put one on their front cover.

    No, seriously. He's a member of an organized group of neo-Nazis.
    posted by mandolin conspiracy at 9:04 AM on June 24, 2016 [10 favorites]


    I guess one meta-takeaway from both sides of the Atlantic (and Pacific) is that the system is grinding down to being battles between colorless technocrats, corporate interests, racist fearmongers, aristocratic chauvinists, and disillusioned disempowered democrats.

    The Star Wars prequels were right all along.
    posted by Apocryphon at 9:06 AM on June 24, 2016 [5 favorites]


    Dear American voters: Don't be like this idiot come November. Your vote has actual consequences.

    I don't think American voters like that guy are the problem. The thing that scares me more are the people who want the system to fall down and want the world to burn, and are taking Brexit and/or Trump because they believe that's the quickest way to make it happen. They know their vote has consequences, but the consequences they hope for are petrifying.
    posted by EmpressCallipygos at 9:06 AM on June 24, 2016 [23 favorites]


    I think most Leavers would be very perky if Farage and Johnson had looked even remotely like their hearts were in it this morning.

    In case you missed it, Farage did not even bother to show up for his final televised debate (had dinner with his son at last minute) and then announced his own defeat at 10pm last night.

    Gove is looking likely for PM.
    posted by Coda Tronca at 9:07 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    No, seriously. He's a member of an organized group of neo-Nazis.

    If the Sun had a sense of shame they might be slightly embarrassed.
    posted by Talez at 9:10 AM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


    Actually, one can draw a parallel with the 2002 French presidential election, when far-right and ultra-nationalist leader Le Pen horrifyingly finished second in the first round. Voters redeemed themselves in the second round by electing Chirac in a landslide, but that was a close call and a scary reminder that voters can toy with democracy in very dangerous ways: first round Le Pen voters where not all racist/holocaust deniers/white supremacists/torture aficionados/promoters of Nazi songs, but they still voted for someone who was all of this (and proud of it) to make a point. But at least they could sober up between the rounds.
    posted by elgilito at 9:11 AM on June 24, 2016 [8 favorites]


    Today so far has been one long episode of Truth Coming Out of Her Well to Shame Mankind
    posted by duffell at 9:12 AM on June 24, 2016 [11 favorites]


    Yeah, I find myself a bit shocked by the demographics of the vote. The boomers are old enough to remember that it was Thatcher and the Tories that have fucked the middle and working class, and that there was an almost 80% "Pro EU" referendum in their lifetime.

    The austerity programs that gutted the social safety net in the UK were coming from inside the house, not from the bureaucrats in Brussels. Which is not to say that the austerity programs favored by Brussels were good for anyone except the banks and the wealthy who own them, but still. I think a fair number of people looked at the EU response to Greece and italy, and were very afraid. Absolutely, ukip used xenophobic rhetoric, but to ignore the economic fear and loathing that is the result of 30 years of screwing everyone but the top 10%, is imho a bad mistake.

    This vote would have made a lot more sense if it had been a call for wealth sharing, or serious tax reforms on the wealthy, but when voters know what will never happen, when there is zero chance that there will ever be economic parity, that Sloan Rangers will keep buying £50k bags while bitching about paying a livable wage to their eastern European nannies, that ceos will keep making thousands of pounds an hour while giving zero hour "jobs" that hide the real levels of unemployment, then burning it all down becomes a hopeless existential cry into the wilderness.

    I'm still baffled by the demographics though.
    posted by SecretAgentSockpuppet at 9:12 AM on June 24, 2016 [11 favorites]


    I think most Leavers would be very perky if Farage and Johnson had looked even remotely like their hearts were in it this morning.

    Those two names together make me think "knife fight in a clown car."
    posted by mandolin conspiracy at 9:13 AM on June 24, 2016 [5 favorites]


    This vote would have made a lot more sense if it had been a call for wealth sharing, or serious tax reforms on the wealthy, but when voters know what will never happen, when there is zero chance that there will ever be economic parity...

    This is precisely a big part of why Leave won: because it came closest to offering some (wretched, pitiful) kind of morality, some kind of narrative of 'society is not just money and technocracy and economic growth'. Blairite Labour and the Tories have nothing to offer other than 'the market'.
    posted by Coda Tronca at 9:20 AM on June 24, 2016 [10 favorites]


    I'm convinced Cameron resigned because, having gone from fucking a pig to fucking the UK, he looks ahead and sees no higher mountains to climb.

    You think the UK relationship with the EU was rocky, try fucking a mountain.
    posted by urbanwhaleshark at 9:20 AM on June 24, 2016 [4 favorites]


    This is precisely a big part of why Leave won: because it came closest to offering some (wretched, pitiful) kind of morality, some kind of narrative of 'society is not just money and technocracy and economic growth'.

    Would that narrative be something along the lines of "we need to reclaim our national sovereignty in order to kick out THOSE people?" Because that's not really a positive justification. Nationalism and anti-immigrant sentiment have never signaled peace, prosperity, or stability for anyone.
    posted by Existential Dread at 9:24 AM on June 24, 2016 [15 favorites]


    Today a friend of mine has to find another £20,000 to pay an overseas supplier, thanks to the pound tanking. He doesn't know if he will be able to keep his business running if the pound doesn't recover quickly. He employs five people, so there are six people whose livelihoods are now at risk. The decision to exit the EU is going to have a massive short-term effect on small business owners like him who need market stability.
    posted by essexjan at 9:24 AM on June 24, 2016 [49 favorites]


    And it was the small businesses that the Leave campaign swore were the ones being strangled by the EU.
    posted by like_neon at 9:27 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    try fucking a mountain

    Gibraltar voted 96% for Remain, so I think Cameron's managed to do that, too.
    posted by the road and the damned at 9:30 AM on June 24, 2016 [45 favorites]


    Leave voters have no idea what they just threw away. There is nowhere else in the world which allows the freedom of movement that the EU does.

    I think a number of Leave voters voted exactly because they wanted to throw that away. They didn't want freedom of movement. They wanted an immigration policy which treated EU countries the same as non-EU countries.
    posted by Emma May Smith at 9:31 AM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


    I wonder how many leave voters woke up this morning like this woman and regretted their choice?
    posted by Ashwagandha at 9:38 AM on June 24, 2016 [10 favorites]


    because it came closest to offering some (wretched, pitiful) kind of morality

    "I mean, say what you want about the tenets of Brexit, Dude, at least it's an ethos."
    posted by FJT at 9:39 AM on June 24, 2016 [11 favorites]


    I know this is a tired internet cliche but I CAN'T EVEN with that woman and her ilk. I. Can't. EVEN.
    posted by harujion at 9:40 AM on June 24, 2016 [8 favorites]


    There's more than one (from earlier up the thread).
    posted by like_neon at 9:41 AM on June 24, 2016




    I wonder how many leave voters woke up this morning like this woman and regretted their choice?

    Also, there must be a German word for it.
    posted by progosk at 9:44 AM on June 24, 2016 [3 favorites]




    Also, there must be a German word for it.

    There's a very good English word for her too.
    posted by urbanwhaleshark at 9:45 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    #bornbritishandbrown is making me want to cry. Again. These are the people suffering now. Not Dave. These people. The British citizens who have to hear this on their journey to work:

    "You'll be next, you know."

    "Go home now."
    posted by harujion at 9:45 AM on June 24, 2016 [14 favorites]


    "I mean, say what you want about the tenets of Brexit, Dude, at least it's an ethos."

    I was seriously going to make that statement. The thing about status quo is that without emotional appeals then it just becomes nihilism, easily twisted into submission to shadowy foreign corporate elites. In a referendum you fight an ethos with your own ethos, you don't simply go, "Well of course you should remain, it's obvious, duh!"
    posted by Apocryphon at 9:45 AM on June 24, 2016 [4 favorites]


    So again, the people WHO VOTED ON AN ACTUAL POLICY WHICH IS NOW BEING IMPLEMENTED are not disenfranchised.They might have FELT disenfranchised, but well, that's provably wrong. Just look at the referendum. Those of us who are most affected by that outcome - EU citizens in the UK - are disenfranchised.

    If you think this was about privilege consider: You're arguing the tremendously privileged sods who are below the C1 demographic, have no qualifications, limited education, and who are looking at old age without the NHS were overruling the terribly oppressed wealthy, educated, mobile, and young.

    The young are wealthy now? Not the young I know. In fact, I'm pretty sure that demographic data is likely to show that the 18-24 bracket is hardly the wealthiest. The young are not the bastion of privilege and wealth you imply.
    posted by Dysk at 9:49 AM on June 24, 2016 [25 favorites]


    Not surprisingly, the Metro is one of the papers that revel in and profit from anti-factual know nothingism and strongly came out in favour of Leave.
    posted by like_neon at 9:49 AM on June 24, 2016 [4 favorites]


    It's fundamentally difficult to make a persuasive argument for any status quo. Unless you live in perfect utopia there's always going to be something shitty happening that Team Blow It All Up will promise they can fix. That's why it's often a good idea to set the bar higher than a simple majority vote for making such massive and irreversible changes.
    posted by theodolite at 9:51 AM on June 24, 2016 [3 favorites]


    Also, there must be a German word for it.

    Fuckwitzen.
    posted by biffa at 9:51 AM on June 24, 2016 [5 favorites]


    Also, there must be a German word for it.

    Scheisswählen
    posted by snuffleupagus at 9:54 AM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


    Hey everybody, just a heads-up that the Brexit was my fault.

    I'll try one more time, because this is important to me.

    I am terrified by the rise of xenophobia and fascism in Europe and America. Shit I thought was dead and buried-- racism, antisemitism-- are blooming like sick mushrooms. It's clear that there's a segment of society that sees itself as being left behind by our financial and cultural institutions. You can argue about whether or not they actually are being left behind or if it's fair that they feel that way, but they actually do feel they are being cut out. They are angry. They are humans. You have to address that anger and upset, because despite your feeling about whether it is justified, it exists.

    You can do that with fiscal and cultural policy. You can provide support for the vulnerable. You can regulate minimum wages and provide enforcement (for everyone, not just citizens, to fight the whole "immigrants pushing down wages" canard). You can provide media that addresses everyone, not just the comfortable people who your advertisers salivate over. You can reach out.

    That's not what I'm seeing this morning. What I'm seeing is this: hot takes. Suggestions that maybe democracy is unworkable. Implications that the people voting for leave are universally stupid, or racist, or easily led, or just don't know what's good for them.

    These are your fellow human beings. They are on the same planet. Their voices effect your life. You have to engage with them. There isn't another option. The upthread attack on marienbad was painful to watch.

    A couple of years ago I gave some money to the Mayday PAC when it first started up, and watched it completely fail in its goals. There was a lot of head-scratching then: they'd outspent their opponents handily in some fairly low-profile contests. Why hadn't they won? They advertised more! It hadn't occurred to them that voters wouldn't just pull the lever for whichever name they saw more frequently on their TV set. There was no engagement. There was just condescension.

    This is all getting very personal, and very close for me. The other week my Trump supporter neighbor down the street yelled "Fuck the Jews!" and when his friend tried to shush him, said, "I don't give a fuck who hears me!" This is widespread. This is in Brooklyn, for fuck's sake. We're past the point where snarky dismissal is going to help.

    No one is blaming you for the results of the vote yesterday. If you're unhappy with it, as many of us are, try to communicate with the people you disagree with, instead of just othering them and hoping they go away. The endgame of "hoping someone goes away" is that someone ends up dead.
    posted by phooky at 9:54 AM on June 24, 2016 [71 favorites]


    Also, there must be a German word for it.

    Fuckwitzen.


    Now, now.

    Pfennigsnachklickerung?
    posted by progosk at 9:55 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    It's fundamentally difficult to make a persuasive argument for any status quo.

    That's why Remain shouldn't have been about status quo. It should have been, "We'll stay in the EU but we're going to work harder to reform it to reflect our national interests. You can be an Eurosceptic and still be in favor of being in the EU. We should use this referendum to reflect our commitment to changing the EU to our liking." Not, "the EU has given us all of these benefits and it's great, don't you see?" when the average person these days isn't particularly content and almost certainly takes for granted the benefits they receive from any given impersonal government entity.
    posted by Apocryphon at 9:55 AM on June 24, 2016 [6 favorites]


    That confusion over what Brexit might mean for the country's economy appears to have been reflected across the United Kingdom on Thursday. Google reported sharp upticks in searches not only related to the ballot measure but also about basic questions concerning the implications of the vote. At about 1 a.m. Eastern time, about eight hours after the polls closed, Google reported that searches for "what happens if we leave the EU" had more than tripled.
    posted by octothorpe at 9:55 AM on June 24, 2016


    Believe it you Leaver
    posted by Kabanos at 9:56 AM on June 24, 2016 [6 favorites]


    I wonder how many leave voters woke up this morning like this woman and regretted their choice?
    "On hearing the outcome, Dominic Garcia, an engineer, said: “I was – gutted’s not the word - but shocked that it’s happening.” He was concerned about “backtracking” by leave-supporting politicians, he said, “especially about the £350m to the NHS. That was on the side of a bus and now it’s not going to happen.
    But it was on the side of a bus!

    Not enough facepalms.
    posted by octobersurprise at 9:57 AM on June 24, 2016 [27 favorites]


    That's why Remain shouldn't have been about status quo

    Maybe the campaign should have styled itself Reform or Improve or something like that.
    posted by snuffleupagus at 9:57 AM on June 24, 2016 [6 favorites]


    Implications that the people voting for leave are universally stupid, or racist, or easily led, or just don't know what's good for them.

    A number of these people also voted for a government that is fucking up the NHS and making disabled people - like a good friend of mine - unable to afford independence. I've been keeping an eye on the local paper of the area in which I grew up, one that is extremely racially divisive, where if the story happens to feature a brown person the comments end up being closed, and a number of people voting out said they were doing so because they didn't like immigration (which won't effect the Muslim population of the town, when people refer to 'immigrants' it's never French people), or because they thought that the EU takes away money that would improve the NHS.

    It's not the people who voted leave that are making me depressed. It's the bullshit rhetoric that sly man-of-the-people politicians use to convince disenfranchised people in economically depressed areas that the solution to their problems is to SEND EM ALL BACK and IF YOU AREN'T WHITE YOU AREN'T BRITISH. This is not the same thing as Euroscepticism. It's people with unpleasant agendas twisting the narrative.
    posted by mippy at 10:03 AM on June 24, 2016 [20 favorites]


    One of my wife’s colleagues was harangued by some drunk shithead in a cafe this lunchtime for speaking German to her German friend. “This is the UK, speak f*king English” was the message apparently.

    The Leave campaign has deliberately stirred the pot of xenophobia & outright racism and I fear Jo Cox is not going to be their first victim. But it won’t be their fault, oh no, they couldn’t possibly have seen it coming now could they?

    It’s going to take an enormous effort just to undo the damage the Leave campaign has wrought. I don’t think they even realise what they’ve actually done to this country.
    posted by pharm at 10:04 AM on June 24, 2016 [45 favorites]


    Brexit, a Still Life [FB]
    posted by Kabanos at 10:05 AM on June 24, 2016 [11 favorites]


    That's why Remain shouldn't have been about status quo.

    Wasn't it originally about Cameron's deal? That was back in February, though.
    posted by effbot at 10:06 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    In a referendum you fight an ethos with your own ethos, you don't simply go, "Well of course you should remain, it's obvious, duh!"

    Well, strangely enough the Brexit vote does remind me a bit of Taiwan's situation, and for them "status quo" does work out and poll-after-poll (unofficial, of course) on the island has the majority backing it. I think this is partly because "status quo" gives a range of flexibility that allows them to walk all the way up to either line (either independence or reunification) without having to cross it, thus gaining the benefits of being more pro-China or pro-US/Pacific. The fact that crossing either line could jeopardize the benefits of one side (or even possibly both) has made the status quo the most attractive option.
    posted by FJT at 10:07 AM on June 24, 2016 [3 favorites]


    Just gone on to said local paper to see the reaction.

    "Think what you like but it is fairly obvious why voting in [area] has gone in favour of leaving the EU. The message is, if you dont like living in this country and cannot live by OUR way of life, then please feel free to go and live somewhere else. I am English and proud of it. Power to the people!"

    "The message could not be any clearer...... We don't want any more people to come to live here. Stay in your own country..don't like it...?..........hard luck..... Pull up the drawbridge.......tod
    ay"

    "All this, in the face of rising numbers of young unemployed, is to my mind, a national scandal that needs to be addressed rather than ignored. Perhaps this can be done, now we are on our way out of the EU and the future of the Schengen Agreement will no longer be forced upon us, preferential legislation towards ensuring that 'positive discrimination' in giving a local a job, rather than what is the current practise of where an whole shift speaks many of the Eastern European languages as our young people languish on the dole, feeling rejected by society....As I said above it will encourage the Tories to implement a harsher benefits system as there will now be no excuse for the young unemployed to turn down the zero hour contracts with agencies supplying workers to food processing factories, office cleaners, agricultural labourers etc."

    (In answer to a comment on whether we should have a referendum on capital punishment): "We should be able to have a referendum on all contentious matters for example, how much money is spent looking after children who are born with genetic defects? Should we be able to introduce compulsory sterilisation for women where its proven they cannot look after their children (For example, I'm thinking of the woman in Newcastle who has had 13 children taken into care and is pregnant again), should there be an upper limit on the number of children that a woman can have?"

    I mean, this is what happens when you start down that road.
    posted by mippy at 10:09 AM on June 24, 2016 [10 favorites]


    > Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard.

    Near the top of the thread, yesterday, I asked about good, progressive outcomes from referenda. There have been some.

    Fundamentally, I don't think we can blame these voters who now "regret" their vote. Yes, they doomed themselves. The referendum was the rope we handed them.

    Normally, parliamentary, representative democracy protects people from this. From themselves.

    > There is a pro-Remain majority in the House of Commons of 454 MPs to 147. - BBC, 6th of June.
    posted by Quagkapi at 10:10 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    That's why Remain shouldn't have been about status quo

    This! I didn't understand why Remain didn't shout about how our representatives in the EU (the MEPs, Farage is one) are full of douche nozzles who did not have any interest in representing the needs and desires of the U.K. public. Our representatives failed us and rather than voting on those MEP elections (don't know the numbers but pretty sure turn out for those are dreadful) this is how the public shows it's disapproval. Of course people felt they weren't properly represented in the EU. It's because the people who were supposed to represent us didn't do their fucking jobs.
    posted by like_neon at 10:10 AM on June 24, 2016 [11 favorites]


    What will happen when people who thought they were voting for Immigrants Go Home notice that they haven't?
    posted by theodolite at 10:11 AM on June 24, 2016 [16 favorites]


    "Go home now."

    Horrible. Happened not far from where I live. Croydon is a massive cesspool of racists and misogynists.
    posted by urbanwhaleshark at 10:12 AM on June 24, 2016


    In that town, if people buy any daily paper, it's likely to be the local one only. My friend's parents didn't read any other newspapers.
    posted by mippy at 10:15 AM on June 24, 2016


    This reminds me a bit of the way Prohibition got voted in during the 30s in US; lots of people thought it would only apply to hard liquor, or large quantities, and were astonished that they could no longer legally get a drink. They also pushed for it out of a feeling of vague moral obligation + no grasp of actual consequences.
    posted by emjaybee at 10:15 AM on June 24, 2016 [43 favorites]


    Fundamentally, I don't think we can blame these voters who now "regret" their vote. Yes, they doomed themselves. The referendum was the rope we handed them.

    "We" handed them nothing - a racist, right-wing tabloid media and internally fractured Tory party handed them rope. A lot of us have been saying that this referendum business was a good fucking awful idea from the start. We are not all responsible for this. If anyone has to own up and take responsibility, it is the Tories, UKIP, the (print) media, and anyone who calls themselves "eurosceptic".

    The rest of us, we're just lumped in this mess with them. A bunch of us didn't actually get to vote, even (which hint hint, everyone, is what "disenfranchised" actually means - in this context it was the people this was done to, not those doing the doing.)
    posted by Dysk at 10:15 AM on June 24, 2016 [23 favorites]


    "Think what you like but it is fairly obvious why voting in [area] has gone in favour of leaving the EU. The message is, if you dont like living in this country and cannot live by OUR way of life, then please feel free to go and live somewhere else. I am English and proud of it. Power to the people!"

    "I would leave but you jackasses just voted us out of free movement!"
    posted by Talez at 10:16 AM on June 24, 2016 [7 favorites]


    What I'm hearing in all of this is that the left/progressives/liberals, both in the US and in the UK and probably in a lot of other places around the world are doing messaging wrong. It's like everyone doing the PR and strategizing is hanging out on FB and going home early without doing any real outreach or getting any real insight into what their target populations need to hear to make good decisions.

    In research, we have community advisory boards. After many years of creating research and trying to recruit for it in ivory towers without the input of the community, researchers realized that the way to get buy in was to ask what the communities affected needed. It works. Not every time and not everybody, but it does work.
    posted by Sophie1 at 10:17 AM on June 24, 2016 [14 favorites]


    I wonder what would happen if the MPs refuse to vote for Article 50 legislation.
    posted by Talez at 10:18 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    Just to note that unless your case is complicated for some reason (most commonly: you have a criminal record), you can absolutely do marriage-based immigration to the US without paying an attorney. It's fussy and detail-oriented but not actually difficult and there are good communities at visajourney and elsewhere to help make it relatively simple. It'll still cost in the ballpark of USD 1K, but that's at least less than 5K.

    Can confirm that this is generally true. However, the fees have increased since I was a US Permanent Resident. While it probably won't cost you quite $5K (USD), it will probably cost you a couple thousand. Some of the significant forms cost ~$1000 to file on their own!

    I don't think American voters like that guy are the problem. The thing that scares me more are the people who want the system to fall down and want the world to burn, and are taking Brexit and/or Trump because they believe that's the quickest way to make it happen. They know their vote has consequences, but the consequences they hope for are petrifying.

    Those are the so-called accelerationists. They seem to believe that "crashing the plane, with no survivors" (so to speak), is the best way to pave the shining path for the new Communist future (or whatever their justification).

    Needless to say, a lot of people disagree with this rationale.
    posted by theorique at 10:18 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    without doing any real outreach

    A thousand times this. We preach to the choir, and too often dismiss the congregation. My take away from this is I'm going to have to start talking to people who disagree with me more often, and I'm introverted as hell.
    posted by Mooski at 10:21 AM on June 24, 2016 [14 favorites]


    I wonder what would happen if the MPs refuse to vote for Article 50 legislation.

    I fear Jo Cox's murder won't be the end.
    posted by urbanwhaleshark at 10:22 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    Question: Theoretically, could the Queen just nope this all away?
    posted by Sys Rq at 10:22 AM on June 24, 2016


    Sure, she can probably afford to retire anywhere on the continent.
    posted by oulipian at 10:23 AM on June 24, 2016 [8 favorites]


    The fact that crossing either line could jeopardize the benefits of one side (or even possibly both) has made the status quo the most attractive option.

    Yeah, I think that's the main difference between this and Cross-Strait relations. Neither reality is particularly tenable or desirable for all sides involved, so the legal fiction is maintained.
    posted by Apocryphon at 10:25 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    I still have hope that the condition for re-entering the single market will be joining the Schengen Treaty.
    posted by rum-soaked space hobo at 10:27 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    I was wondering the other day why we pay so little attention to our MEPs in the UK. I don't know how it is in other countries, but I couldn't tell you offhand who my MEP is. I never read anything about them in the newspaper. Most people don't vote in the European elections, and the result of those elections never gets any tv or radio airtime.

    I did vote in the European elections (and googled who they all were), but I have no idea who actually got in and I don't know how I would go about finding out. The only time I ever hear about MEPs in the news is when I hear stories about UKIP MEPs happily drawing their salary and claiming expenses but refusing to attend meetings. There's no wonder people thought getting rid of the EU wouldn't have any impact on their lives.

    People have always treated European elections and local council elections as a chance to give the lot in Westminster a kicking because they are seen as low-risk and a bit of a joke (you can vote Green or UKIP or whoever and it won't make any difference). I'm not altogether surprised that lots of people treated the referendum vote exactly the same, and I can easily believe that some had absolutely no idea what they were about to do.
    posted by tinkletown at 10:27 AM on June 24, 2016 [7 favorites]


    I wonder what would happen if the MPs refuse to vote for Article 50 legislation.

    I believe initiating Article 50 does not require any legislation—it's royal prerogative (and therefore is the responsibility of the prime minister). The Commons can pass legislation that opposes initiating Article 50.
    posted by My Dad at 10:27 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    Sys Rq. Theoretically, sure. In reality? LOL. Nope. The Queen is not going to trigger a constitutional crisis that would threaten the status of the monarchy in the UK. Parliament is sovereign and every monarch since the reformation has recognised this. Blowing up the monarchy over something as relatively trivial (to the monarch) as this is not going to happen.
    posted by pharm at 10:28 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    Implications that the people voting for leave are universally stupid, or racist, or easily led

    So #notallleavers, basically?

    The real thing here is that enough of them are racists/xenophobes/nationalists/idiots/not properly housebroken for it to matter; I take it you haven't read a single interview with "EU migrants" living in the UK, because a recurring theme in those interviews is that people no longer feel welcome (see e.g. 1, 2, 3). It may not stand out to you when someone is herp derping about how the evil Polish took err jerbs, but trust me, those of us who are "EU migrants" do notice.

    Which I guess explains why there's so many leavers on my social feeds today; not people who voted for Brexit, but people who are actually considering leaving the UK.
    posted by effbot at 10:28 AM on June 24, 2016 [16 favorites]


    What will happen when people who thought they were voting for Immigrants Go Home notice that they haven't?

    Nothing good, is for damn sure.
    posted by penduluum at 10:29 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    Sys Rq. Theoretically, sure. In reality? LOL. Nope. The Queen is not going to trigger a constitutional crisis that would threaten the status of the monarchy in the UK. Parliament is sovereign and every monarch since the reformation has recognised this. Blowing up the monarchy over something as relatively trivial (to the monarch) as this is not going to happen.

    When Scotland is trying to leave the kingdom to do its own thing, wouldn't that be a monarchial crisis for the Union?
    posted by Apocryphon at 10:31 AM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


    I look forward to Britain's elderly building a huge wall around the country to keep immigrants out, and then another one right inside it to keep their own young people in.
    posted by Naberius at 10:31 AM on June 24, 2016 [4 favorites]




    Question: Theoretically, could the Queen just nope this all away?

    Yes. Every law passed in Parliament needs to receive Royal Assent - it's the final stage before a Bill becomes an Act. If she says "no" at that stage, it doesn't pass.

    Slight complicating factor with that:

    a) no monarch has actually refused to give royal assent since 1708
    b) if she did, it would cause a massive constitutional crisis, tangle up the entire law-making procedure for everything for a while, and no doubt end up eventually with the law passing anyway.

    Current thought on Royal Assent these days is that it's a duty of the monarch under our parliamentary democracy to give it - it is her job to say "yes", not her job to make a decision. (Which actually raises some interesting theoretical scenarios on what the monarch's duty would be if Parliament passed something that was really against democracy, like extending the fixed term of a parliament to 200 years or something - but I think we've all had enough visions of apocalyptic authoritarian futures for today.)
    posted by Catseye at 10:34 AM on June 24, 2016 [5 favorites]


    Satire strikes
    posted by Miko at 10:34 AM on June 24, 2016 [5 favorites]


    The queen is Queen of Scotland quite separately from being Queen of England and Wales. It used to be two different people prior to James I/VI. It shouldn't make much odds to her if they leave the union, she'll still be queen of both (in the same way that she is also Queen of Canada and Queen of Australia without either of those being part of the UK).
    posted by tinkletown at 10:36 AM on June 24, 2016 [11 favorites]


    I'll try one more time, because this is important to me.

    And I'll give a straightforward response.

    The people who voted Brexit either set out to screw Britain or did not undertake elementary fact checking - like checking that £350 million nonsense that Farage was peddling that e.g. ignored the British rebate and any money Britain got back from the EU. And then Cornwall have the sheer chutzpah after voting to cut their noses off to spite their faces to plead for the money to be restored that they voted to be taken away.

    The people most likely to vote Leave are part of the parasitic elderly and retirees in Britain who are busy screwing the young. And I don't care what official class they are in. The pension has been entirely protected from the impacts of the economically illiterate austerity that the Tories they support have inflicted on people I care about. And the NHS I care about. Meanwhile, thanks to another inter-generational parasitism of wealth, house prices are so high that 20% of young adults still live with their parents. And don't get me started on how ridiculous the rental market is. And the youth unemployment rate is almost 15% as againt the 6% nationally. That's what getting screwed by the system looks like. Yet the young overwhelmingly voted Remain.

    The people who voted Brexit in general aren't the ones getting badly screwed by the system - they are the lower middle class giving a damn good kicking to those weaker than they are. People at the bottom almost never vote for revolution - they are right on the edge and know what uncertainty does. The Brexit voters as a rule actually have a decent sized slice of the pie. They yowl about being disenfranchised despite having votes. They own houses and get disproportionate benefits that thanks to their mismanagement I don't expect to be around (the State Pension) and are upset when others get money.

    I'll be less angry with the Brexiters tomorrow. And I know we suck at messaging - it's something I've been saying round my circles for a long time (and ask me about the Remain campaign sometime - or why I gave up on the Green Party earlier this year). But for today? In addition to the normal groundswell of generational warfare they are screwing the millenials with they sabotaged my country and probably destroyed it. They threatened the marriages of some of my friends. By electing the Tories in 2010 when we knew what they literally endangered the lives of some of my friends by voting Tory. They demonstrated that they could not be trusted to do the very most basic research into what they were voting for (anyone who thinks that Farage's £350 million/week figure was in any way honest shouldn't be allowed a sharp object). But for today? I would not piss on anyone who voted for Brexit if they were on fire.

    And one thing that puts water between me and them is that I am very much aware that letting the world burn is something I would regret. So I won't do it even when I'm as upset and furious as I am now.
    posted by Francis at 10:37 AM on June 24, 2016 [62 favorites]


    The road to Brexit: 16 things you need to know about what will happen if we vote to leave the EU

    So these are the ones that caught my eye.
    11. Beyond the negotiations, parliament would also have a great deal of legislating to do. Withdrawal would require repeal of the European Communities Act (ECA) of 1972 – the legislation that underpins the UK’s EU membership. But there would also be two much larger tasks. First, a great deal of legislation has been passed over the last forty years that enacts provisions required under EU membership. Parliament would presumably wish to review – and in places amend or repeal – this body of law during or following withdrawal. Second, EU ‘regulations’ apply directly in the UK without domestic implementing legislation and would automatically cease to apply upon repeal of the ECA. But it would be essential to retain some of these, at least in the short term: otherwise, we would lack rules on many important matters. Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska points out, for example, that much of the trading done in the City of London would overnight become illegal unless new provision were made. The process of reviewing this legislation – working out what to keep, what to amend, and what to remove – would be lengthy, complex, and contested. It has been discussed further on this site by former Clerk of the House of Commons Lord Lisvane.
    So basically the UK have to rebuild the entire regulatory framework that has been thrown out over the past forty years and they'll probably just keep using the EU frameworks anyway until they customize them to what the politicians in the UK want. This is going to be an absolute magnet for corrupt financial services players and needs to be watched like a hawk by the press.
    12. Whitehall, meanwhile, would be severely stretched by the mammoth exercise of withdrawal. The civil service has zero spare capacity after the cuts of the last five years: many departments have seen budget cuts of over a quarter since 2010, and total civil service employment has fallen by almost a fifth in the same period. Further spending reductions for the coming years were set out in last year’s spending review. The UK has no current capacity at all in trade negotiations, as this is a job that has been outsourced to Brussels. The task of reviewing 40 years of EU and domestic legislation could take five or ten years. It would make it very difficult for the government to embark on any new policy while it reviews all these old policies. Whitehall also risks becoming very clumsy in handling important relationships (such as with Scotland: see below) because it would be so severely distracted.
    So there's no guarantee that the UK even has a civil service able to actually do all the shit necessary to disentangle themselves from the EU. The institutional memory that the UK used to have is gone. It's blank.

    It's going to be hell for the UK for the next few years.
    posted by Talez at 10:37 AM on June 24, 2016 [32 favorites]


    It's like people read/saw Children Of Men as something to which to aspire rather than something to avoid.

    I just shouted at the Guardian for their ridiculous romanticised "Nigel Farage basks in the triumph of his new dawn" headline, because FFS.
    posted by urbanwhaleshark at 10:38 AM on June 24, 2016 [5 favorites]


    Or in short would everyone saying that the anger of the Brexiters is justified please shut up or at least acknowledge that the anger of the Remainers is at least as justified.
    posted by Francis at 10:38 AM on June 24, 2016 [24 favorites]


    When Scotland is trying to leave the kingdom to do its own thing, wouldn't that be a monarchial crisis for the Union?

    The Queen is The Queen of Canada as well as of the United Kingdom and we're all pretty independent so I don't think it would be a big deal.

    (on preview tinkletown beat me to it)

    And from a Canadian who went to Quebec to demonstrate in favour of solidarity before the '95 referendum, I feel your pain England. It's a terrible thing that has happened and I hope nothing truly terrible comes of it. New sets of regulations will be a pain in the ass but hopefully kind people will hold back an upswing in xenophobia.
    posted by GuyZero at 10:39 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    When Scotland is trying to leave the kingdom to do its own thing, wouldn't that be a monarchial crisis for the Union?

    No. The Queen would remain monarch of Scotland whether Scotland was in the United Kingdom or not by reason of the crown passing down the chain of monarchs from James VI of Scotland to her.
    posted by pharm at 10:39 AM on June 24, 2016




    The real thing here is that enough of them are racists/xenophobes/nationalists/idiots/not properly housebroken for it to matter; I take it you haven't read a single interview with "EU migrants" living in the UK, because a recurring theme in those interviews is that people no longer feel welcome (see e.g. 1, 2, 3). It may not stand out to you when someone is herp derping about how the evil Polish took err jerbs, but trust me, those of us who are "EU migrants" do notice.

    I think, as an American, the last several decades should have forced to realize that our civil society cannot live without the presence of racists/xenophobes/nationalists/idiots/not properly housebroken. And we have pretty much given up on them, to live in our own separate bubbles. But come election time, we realize that we all share the same democracies.

    I think the labels of "racist!" or "sexist!" are wearing thin. There's a societal backlash after the progress of the '60s. It's been coupled with increasing economic inequality and feeling of malaise, of impotence. In the '90s there were anti-political correctness rhetoric and stuff like the militia movements, but people generally got along with diversity because hey the Cold War is over and we won in Iraq and the nascent tech industry was making us all rich as hell. Times have changed.

    The man who is unemployed or underemployed and has a chip on his shoulder against the system is not going to care if you call him a racist or a xenophobe. Those words have been bandied around for decades. To some extent, the amount of academic critical theorizing that goes into constructing elaborate definitions of oppression and so forth just make racism seem meaningless to the average layman. And so, it's no longer a simple axiom that "racism is bad! What you're doing/saying is racist. You should not do that." People are questioning these simple truths, when the whole point of not being racist is being able to treat any human being as oneself. That man does not care if you call him a racist, because at that point he views it as just a political insult from an Other who is Othering him.

    But we're not full Weimar yet. We're not yet having full-scale street riots between the militias of political factions, gunfights in the streets. That man is not yet your life-or-death enemy.

    So while we have time, it's best if you can find a way to win over that man.
    posted by Apocryphon at 10:40 AM on June 24, 2016 [19 favorites]


    The Queen would remain monarch of Scotland whether Scotland was in the United Kingdom or not by reason of the crown passing down the chain of monarchs from James VI of Scotland to her.

    So upon separating, the Scots won't declare a new republic and position themselves into the Nordic bloc? Phooey.
    posted by Apocryphon at 10:43 AM on June 24, 2016


    So upon separating, the Scots won't declare a new republic and position themselves into the Nordic bloc? Phooey.

    I’m not very in touch with the current mood regarding republicanism in Scotland, but no: I really don’t think that’s going to happen. Ask cstross if he turns up?
    posted by pharm at 10:46 AM on June 24, 2016


    This clip of Farage backtracking on the supposed savings of a Brexit is incredible. This really is the golden age of lies and bullshit.
    posted by My Dad at 10:46 AM on June 24, 2016 [14 favorites]


    Can you try and win him over from his prison cell?

    I'm pretty sure he didn't get to vote in the referendum anyway, whereas millions did, and they're not getting into gunfights as of yet.

    And with less snark: writing off millions of voters as all the same as one neo-Nazi with mental illness is exactly falling into the game of Othering and tribalism.
    posted by Apocryphon at 10:46 AM on June 24, 2016 [8 favorites]


    winterhill: you can tell we’re not in a fascist country (thankfully) because that man is still in a prison cell & hasn’t been quietly set free by a CPS that’s been threatened with physical violence unless they find a way to do so.
    posted by pharm at 10:48 AM on June 24, 2016


    Given that my city was in riots last time Trump stopped over, I'd say we're all in this together.
    posted by Apocryphon at 10:50 AM on June 24, 2016 [6 favorites]


    especially cially about the £350m to the NHS. That was on the side of a bus and now it’s not going to happen.

    Farage says the £350m a week pledge for the NHS was "a mistake
    ".

    Or a lie as we little people call it.
    posted by biffa at 10:51 AM on June 24, 2016 [28 favorites]


    Listen, I GET IT. I honestly get a lot of the sentiment behind Trump/Brexit/nationalism in general. I am not some globalist shill who longs for a single-world culture with open borders.

    I just feel that ripping apart a framework which was borne out of the largest loss of life in human history because you DON'T LIKE ALL THE BROWN PEOPLE AND THEIR SPICY FOOD is understandably infuriating to many.
    posted by lattiboy at 10:51 AM on June 24, 2016 [22 favorites]


    New sets of regulations will be a pain in the ass but hopefully kind people will hold back an upswing in xenophobia.

    As those of us who are immigrants living in the UK keep saying, that is too late. It's already happened.
    posted by Dysk at 10:54 AM on June 24, 2016 [4 favorites]


    writing off millions of voters as all the same as one neo-Nazi with mental illness is exactly falling into the game of Othering and tribalism.

    OTOH
    posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 10:54 AM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


    I'm pretty sure he didn't get to vote in the referendum anyway

    Yes he did because he murdered a woman to deny her vote. And her fucking life. So snark better next time.
    posted by urbanwhaleshark at 10:55 AM on June 24, 2016 [46 favorites]


    They could position themselves in the Nordic bloc with a monarch if they wanted to. No need for a republic - Norway, Sweden and Denmark all have a royal family, and there was a lot of intermarriage between the Scots and Norwegian royal families in the Middle Ages anyway so it would be like old times.

    Edit: sorry thread seems to have moved on.
    posted by tinkletown at 10:55 AM on June 24, 2016 [3 favorites]


    ...by reason of the crown passing down the chain of monarchs from James VI of Scotland to her.

    Perhaps Franz, Duke of Bavaria (a direct descendant of Charles I and and the heir-general of the Jacobite succession) could profit from all this confusion by pressing his claim on Scotland.
    posted by Iridic at 10:56 AM on June 24, 2016 [3 favorites]


    The man being held for the shooting hasn't been found guilty as yet, or found insane as far as I heard so he probably did have voting rights. He could have already voted by post. Not sure what the arrangements actually are for people held ahead of trial.
    posted by biffa at 11:02 AM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


    Farage says the £350m a week pledge for the NHS was "a mistake".

    Or a lie as we little people call it.


    Gives a new meaning to throwing one's allies under the bus.
    posted by snuffleupagus at 11:03 AM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


    Franz is not married, and his oldest brother has no sons, so any claims on Scotland would pass to his next oldest brother Prince Luitpold and his son Ludwig Heinrich. Bonnie Prince Charlie he ain't.
    posted by infinitewindow at 11:05 AM on June 24, 2016


    Franz, Duke of Bavaria

    Things are looking bad enough in Europe without involving a Bavarian Duke named Franz.
    posted by snuffleupagus at 11:06 AM on June 24, 2016 [26 favorites]


    Wait. 71% of the people who voted Leave think **THE INTERNET** is a force for ill?

    They read the comments.
    posted by phearlez at 11:06 AM on June 24, 2016 [7 favorites]


    Regexit
    posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 11:09 AM on June 24, 2016


    > "We" handed them nothing - a racist, right-wing tabloid media and internally fractured Tory party handed them rope. A lot of us have been saying that this referendum business was a good fucking awful idea from the start. We are not all responsible for this. If anyone has to own up and take responsibility, it is the Tories, UKIP, the (print) media, and anyone who calls themselves "eurosceptic".

    I agree with your entire post. But did we really all do enough to prevent this referendum? It happened, so I don't think we did.

    > Gives a new meaning to throwing one's allies under the bus.

    In his pathetic "what has happened?" speech earlier today, Boris returned the favour to Farage by attempting to distance himself from people who "play politics with immigration", I think was the phrase. The clown hopes we will forget how he got this power.
    posted by Quagkapi at 11:12 AM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


    Bonnie Prince Charlie he ain't.

    "Prince Luitpold was born at Schloß Leutstetten near Starnberg, in Bavaria. He is the only surviving child of Prince Ludwig of Bavaria (1913–2008) and his wife Princess Irmingard of Bavaria (1923–2010)."


    Irmingard, look at those teeth!
    posted by Capt. Renault at 11:13 AM on June 24, 2016 [4 favorites]


    s/Regexit/Regrexit/
    posted by paper chromatographologist at 11:13 AM on June 24, 2016 [19 favorites]


    Just let me clear. I'm 100% with XQUZYPHYR on this. Quoted in full.
    I knew I'd wake up to a bunch of defensive "well I voted for Leave but for these other reasons; I'm not a racist" comments. In the U.S., our equivalent I guess are the disaffected Bernie voters or just overall Clinton haters who are totally fine with Trump winning because it will "send a message" or "it won't hurt them personally" or whatever.

    We get it, guys. Congratulations on you, personally, not being a racist.

    Also, congratulations on the victory for the coalition you formed with a bunch of fucking racists to give them everything they wanted.
    posted by urbanwhaleshark at 11:13 AM on June 24, 2016 [36 favorites]


    Yes he did because he murdered a woman to deny her vote. And her fucking life. So snark better next time.

    People are understandably angry here. And for a good amount of time they should express that anger. But in the long run, equating those millions of voters, who have different reasons for voting as they did, as one monolithic horde of thugs and crazies and racists, is not going to help. I've seen this shit repeated election after election and it seems like the leading democracies are just further sinking into polarization and fragmentation and othering. I'm not saying that I know what to do about it. I just think we need to do something different.
    posted by Apocryphon at 11:14 AM on June 24, 2016 [7 favorites]


    Beverly nails it
    posted by flabdablet at 11:18 AM on June 24, 2016 [44 favorites]


    oops sorry cjelli. Thank you for the enlightened pedantry I treasure here at Metafilter.
    posted by emjaybee at 11:19 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    Happy this is our mayor. Don't miss you at all Boris.
    posted by like_neon at 11:23 AM on June 24, 2016 [4 favorites]


    People are understandably angry here. And for a good amount of time they should express that anger. But in the long run, equating those millions of voters, who have different reasons for voting as they did, as one monolithic horde of thugs and crazies and racists, is not going to help.

    I don't buy this for a second. The reasoning that the "leave" campaign gave was never convincing. It was never thought out. It was never based in anything other than vague promises, open xenophobia, and an emotional appeal to national identity. Feel free to do a person-by-person poll if you wish, but how else do we judge a voting bloc than by the campaign that they voted for?
    posted by codacorolla at 11:23 AM on June 24, 2016 [26 favorites]


    But in the long run, equating those millions of voters, who have different reasons for voting as they did, as one monolithic horde of thugs and crazies and racists, is not going to help.

    Whether or not it helps, they're allowed to do it on account of it being objectively true. Voting Brexit was short-sighted and hate-motivated just as voting Republican in the US is short-sighted and hate-motivated, and you can claim all you want that you or your mom or whoever isn't personally racist but what you do matters a hell of a lot more than what you say. If you do racist things, you are a racist. If you don't want to be a racist, don't engage in lynching, not even by proxy.
    posted by IAmUnaware at 11:26 AM on June 24, 2016 [14 favorites]


    Nobody is saying the entire brexit crowd is dogs but we're pretty well within reason to be suspicious that they've all got fleas now.
    posted by phearlez at 11:26 AM on June 24, 2016 [21 favorites]


    People are understandably angry here. And for a good amount of time they should express that anger. But in the long run, equating those millions of voters, who have different reasons for voting as they did, as one monolithic horde of thugs and crazies and racists, is not going to help

    The problem is that a sizable amount of them are uneducated, which is in itself a problem. And a lot of them seme to be expressing regret, having no idea what they even voted for.
    posted by roomthreeseventeen at 11:27 AM on June 24, 2016 [6 favorites]


    But did we really all do enough to prevent this referendum? It happened, so I don't think we did.

    As a poor, queer, trans person, unable to work, was I really in any position to? In any position to be listened to by leave voters? Hell, I'm pretty much exactly the bogeyman scare story they're railing against. Maybe you didn't do enough, but I am not going to have the responsibility for how other people voted hung on me.
    posted by Dysk at 11:27 AM on June 24, 2016 [17 favorites]


    So while we have time, it's best if you can find a way to win over that man.

    I do agree with this. It is very clear that a significant proportion of the population feels distanced enough from their government, their international community, anyone who is The Elite or An Expert or etc etc etc. I mean, there's a reason the narrative of "these ivory-tower establishment elites don't understand real Brits like you" has played so well here, and it's because people are feeling that distance so keenly already.

    But: how?

    To take one example: lots of people feel that immigration is putting a huge burden on the NHS, and the NHS is struggling to cope as a result. This is not true. It's really, provably not true. We know what's putting pressure on the NHS (austerity on one hand, an ageing population on the other). But it feels true to people, and that turns out to be a surprisingly difficult thing to shake.

    So you can say "well I don't think it's immigration causing that problem" - and be ignored, because they already know it's true. Or you can say "I work for the government and I know about all the strategic work done on NHS funding and demand and I can show you all the graphs and figures you'll ever, ever need that show immigration is not the problem here" - and be ignored, because now you're the elite/establishment/ivory tower people, and you're clearly lying. Or you can say "hey I work in the NHS, immigration is not only not hurting us, it's actually keeping us going" - and be ignored, because it just doesn't feel true to people, and it doesn't match up with what they see as the evidence of their own experience, and therefore you disagreeing with them feels like you dismissing them.

    So how do you deal with that? It's a no-win situation when the only way people will feel their concerns are acknowledged is if their concerns are agreed with.

    I am not trying to present this as an argument for why we shouldn't even bother trying to reach people we disagree with. Obviously we should, and I feel really strongly that we should, and I want to know how we can effectively do it, and... I'm stumped.
    posted by Catseye at 11:27 AM on June 24, 2016 [99 favorites]


    One thing to soften the blow: the truly baroque insults that Scots have been flinging towards Trump in response to his ill-advised "Scotland took its country back" tweet. Among the things they have called him:

    "witless fucking cocksplat"
    "incompressible jizztrumpet"
    "ignorant fuckmuppet"
    "buttplug face"
    "weapons-grade plum"
    "toupéd fucktrumpet"
    "Pumkinfart"
    "uncooked pastry"
    "clueless orangutan"
    "fuckstick helmethair"
    "tiny-fingered, Cheeto-faced, ferret-wearing shitgibbon"
    posted by EmpressCallipygos at 11:28 AM on June 24, 2016 [147 favorites]


    Yes, flabdablet, Beverly does nail it. Completely. Eloquent and correct and all my thoughts. Thank you.
    posted by Quagkapi at 11:28 AM on June 24, 2016 [4 favorites]


    busy screwing the young

    This image is making the rounds right now: "Average number of years voters have to live with the decision".
    posted by effbot at 11:29 AM on June 24, 2016 [15 favorites]


    Whether or not it helps, they're allowed to do it on account of it being objectively true. Voting Brexit was short-sighted and hate-motivated just as voting Republican in the US is short-sighted and hate-motivated, and you can claim all you want that you or your mom or whoever isn't personally racist but what you do matters a hell of a lot more than what you say. If you do racist things, you are a racist. If you don't want to be a racist, don't engage in lynching, not even by proxy.

    Voting "Leave" was tantamount to lynching? That kind of dialogue is not going to build bridges with people who voted "Leave" for economic or political reasons. Which is many, many of them. Not all "Leave" voters are BNP and Combat 18, despite what the Guardian would have us believe.
    posted by theorique at 11:29 AM on June 24, 2016 [9 favorites]


    I am starting to think that the stakes are so high here that Parliament may have sufficient cover to go with the 48% instead of the 52%. Presumably by the time the new leadership election happens, they'll have had some time to grapple with the economic effects and understand just how large this self-inflicted wound would be, and the Tories will choose two leadership candidates who want to remain in the EU.

    It may be political suicide, but at this point most options appear to be political suicide.
    posted by savetheclocktower at 11:30 AM on June 24, 2016 [4 favorites]


    This image is making the rounds right now: "Average number of years voters have to live with the decision".

    Well, there's no reason this decision has to be permanent, right?
    posted by roomthreeseventeen at 11:31 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    Not all "Leave" voters are BNP and Combat 18, despite what the Guardian would have us believe

    But they were all happy to throw their lot in with Britain First and UKIP, so they're hardly blameless either.
    posted by Dysk at 11:32 AM on June 24, 2016 [12 favorites]


    I don't think Parliament even needs to approve it. The Prime Minister can invoke the leave process on his own.
    posted by BungaDunga at 11:33 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    As one of the 75% of 18-24 year olds who voted for remain yesterday I feel mainly fear and anxiety. I'm due to graduate Uni in 2 weeks time and I feel like all my hard work towards a stable career has been reduced to the whims of whoever the conservative party chooses for the next leader (so much for democracy). I'm due to start a PhD in a scientific field in Scotland in September. By the time I come home for Christmas I might be separated from all my family and friends by an international border if Scotland votes for independence. I know that many academics feared the Scottish independence last time and went as far as negotiating exit strategies to foreign universities. I'm faced with so much uncertainty; will the funding allocated to me still be available outside the EU? Will an independent Scotland make available the funds for research? Will I be relocated to wherever my supervisor wants to? If I move to say, Germany will the EPSRC still be funding me? Will the EPSRC even exist in Scotland?

    Sorry for waffling but this is just my story and it alligns with many people I know who are scared about what happens next.
    posted by Shikantaza at 11:33 AM on June 24, 2016 [27 favorites]


    Well, there's no reason this decision has to be permanent, right?

    Given how hard it was to get the UK to join in the first place and all the special treatment they've been given, I'm thinking it's hard to imagine en EU that would want them back, even in 10-20 years when presumably many of the Leave voters have passed on.
    posted by tonycpsu at 11:34 AM on June 24, 2016 [4 favorites]


    "witless fucking cocksplat"
    "incompressible jizztrumpet"
    "ignorant fuckmuppet"
    "buttplug face"
    "weapons-grade plum"
    "toupéd fucktrumpet"
    "Pumkinfart"
    "uncooked pastry"
    "clueless orangutan"
    "fuckstick helmethair"
    "tiny-fingered, Cheeto-faced, ferret-wearing shitgibbon"
    posted by EmpressCallipygos at 2:28 PM on June 24 [4 favorites +] [!]


    Okay, those are funny, but calling someone "uncooked pastry" just goes beyond the boundaries of good taste...
    posted by Thistledown at 11:35 AM on June 24, 2016 [4 favorites]


    I realize it's against the Prime Directive to interfere with a civilization's development, but can't the Star Trek people make an exception and do one of their time loops for us?
    posted by dances_with_sneetches at 11:35 AM on June 24, 2016 [9 favorites]


    I think that people are misunderstanding the Brexit a bit here. There is a lot of discussion here on Metafilter that suggests the Brexit represents a victory for the right-wing, while the EU is some kind of vaguely leftist (or at least socially liberal?) organization, and that leftists should be against Brexit.

    Here is the reality: This is not right wing vs. left wing. The Brexit situation is Old Right vs. New Right.

    The EU is a fundamentally neoliberal and capitalist construction. It was literally created (in embryonic form) after WWII as a bulwark against communism and as a means to bolster capitalism on the Continent. It is, essentially, "NATO for bankers". The EU is fully neoliberal: free markets, open borders, undercut unions, promote exports by lowering benefits, etc.

    You're going to think I'm crazy for saying this, but the EU is also, essentially, a dictatorship. By "dictatorship" here, I mean that the actual opinions of the common people have little to no relationship to EU policy. Hollande -- a "socialist" -- is actively trying to break unions in France. The French people don't want that, but they're going to get it anyway, because some very, very wealthy people in Paris, Brussels and Geneva have decided that it must happen.

    In the EU, you can vote for anybody you want and say anything you want, protest as much as you want, etc., but actual policy decisions are largely a foregone conclusion. Whatever is best for the "market" will be the policy, no matter what. The EU is, then, a kind of liberal dictatorship, where speech and political activity is free and unimpeded, but unconnected to actual policy outcomes.

    The Brexit crowd, of course, isn't any better. They represent the kind of populist, racist right-wing isolationism that is now on the rise in the US as well.

    But here's the thing: since the 1990's, people all around the world have been told, continually, that there is no alternative to neoliberalism. There is simply no alternative. WTO protests? Occupy? Mass deunionization? Mass unemployment?

    Sorry, there's no alternative. End of history and all that. Sorry you lost your job. Consider learning how to code! Here's a coupon for Walmart. Clearly there is no alternative. Etc. etc.

    Trump and Brexiters are putting themselves out there as an "alternative" to neoliberalism. That's why the Old Right (fascism, closed borders, closed economies, racial purity, etc.) is coming back with a vengeance. They are proposing an alternative.

    Question: do you have an alternative to neoliberalism? I don't think we really do. We talk alot about "socialism" but I'm not sure anybody knows what that means anymore. It's not enough simply to hold the Old Right in horror, scream "racism" and hope that nobody elects them anymore. Clearly this strategy is not working. There needs to be a workable, non-racist, leftist alternative to both the Old Right and the New Right. It has to be something more than "No sensible person would dare to vote against neoliberalism" or whatever. It has to be something that appeals to the masses, something with a slogan, and something that gives people hope for a future, and not just promises of more cars and Eurovision contests.

    We need to come up with a vision of what humanity should be. If we don't do it, then Trump, Farage and Putin will do it for us.
    posted by Tyrant King Porn Dragon at 11:36 AM on June 24, 2016 [107 favorites]


    People are getting bent out of shape about searches for"what happens when we exit" and assigning the searches to leave voters. I'd think most are from remain voters who didn't think leave would win.
    posted by Mitheral at 11:39 AM on June 24, 2016 [5 favorites]


    > I am starting to think that the stakes are so high here that Parliament may have sufficient cover to go with the 48% instead of the 52%.

    WriteToThem.com. Do it. Plead. I have. If there's a chance at any stage that we can backtrack via MP vote, it's worth it to try.
    posted by Quagkapi at 11:43 AM on June 24, 2016


    It is kind of ironic that those areas most in receipt of EU money have all voted to Leave.

    Tracks similarly to areas of the U.S. who receive a disproportionate amount of Federal funding being those who complain most and vote for representatives who vow to slash "wasteful" spending.
    posted by aught at 11:46 AM on June 24, 2016 [9 favorites]


    We need to come up with a vision of what humanity should be. If we don't do it, then Trump, Farage and Putin will do it for us.

    I do agree with this, but for now it's looking liking either Boris Johnson or Michael Gove are going to be the next PM, and it's not going to do any good for the likes of those that voted for Leave.
    posted by maggiemaggie at 11:48 AM on June 24, 2016


    roomthreeseventeen: "
    Well, there's no reason this decision has to be permanent, right?
    "

    No way the EU gives the UK the sweet deal they had before if they try to rejoin.
    posted by Mitheral at 11:48 AM on June 24, 2016 [3 favorites]


    WriteToThem.com. Do it. Plead. I have. If there's a chance at any stage that we can backtrack via MP vote, it's worth it to try.

    I mean, as stupid as the decision was, you all did vote though, right? The MP should respect the vote.
    posted by roomthreeseventeen at 11:49 AM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


    roomthreeseventeen: "
    Well, there's no reason this decision has to be permanent, right?"

    No way the EU gives the UK the sweet deal they had before if they try to rejoin.
    posted by Mitheral at 2:48 PM on June 24 [+] [!]


    They haven't left yet. No deal terms have changed.
    posted by Thistledown at 11:49 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    The EU is, then, a kind of liberal dictatorship, where speech and political activity is free and unimpeded, but unconnected to actual policy outcomes.


    Yes, yes. This is a given......

    The EU also tied together in a neoliberal WORLD.....one of the few places where enlightenment values have seriously taken hold.....into a mutually dependent trade-and-cooperation-enabled anti-war-pact by default.

    Left or right, socialist or not, if the countries separate - which they will - and they come under resource, migration or environmental pressure, they will fight. Look at the last thousand years of European history for your proof.

    If you can keep countries from war, then you can do the democracy and society building slowly.

    If there is war, ALL of your alternatives go to strongmen and chaos. The End - at least for 10? 50? 100? years? By which time other factors will have taken over.


    And this is while the world had better things to do than revisit imbecilic nationalism
    . It's not like global warming, species die off, pollution, and other lower probability but serious existential threats are going to be focused on MORE now that we have another immediate emergency to deal with.

    Sorry people. The truth hurts. They may not know it, but leavers are Complicit in a terrible crime.
    posted by lalochezia at 11:50 AM on June 24, 2016 [35 favorites]


    If Parliament refuses to back Brexit, wouldn't the government fall and have to call new elections? The PM has already come out and said they will back Brexit; I can't see a government surviving that vote. So there's new elections, all the angry Leave supporters vote UKIP, and then we end up with PM Farage.
    posted by BungaDunga at 11:50 AM on June 24, 2016


    The UK is leaving the EU. Stop Bargaining.
    posted by Annika Cicada at 11:50 AM on June 24, 2016 [5 favorites]


    I am starting to think that the stakes are so high here that Parliament may have sufficient cover to go with the 48% instead of the 52%.

    UKIP says thanks for the votes.
    posted by Emma May Smith at 11:52 AM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    This thread seems to have now reached the consensus hive mind point that any opposition to the EU was vile racist idiocy.

    The EU was not a socialist project.
    posted by Coda Tronca at 11:53 AM on June 24, 2016 [7 favorites]


    The Brexit situation is Old Right vs. New Right.

    I'm not so sure I'd frame it that way - or maybe I'd more specifically say the populist right is the wayward offspring of the neoliberal right. It's the predictable enough end result of the rhetoric neoliberals deployed to push their policies through.

    I wouldn't also rush to say socialism is not viable. With 62 people holding half the world's wealth, much of the solution lies in taxation and redistribution, as well as international development and serious peacemaking efforts to stem the movements of migrants around the globe. Is it a realistic alternative? Well, people are getting deeply concerned, maybe enough to support a change of vision. But it took 40 years to get into this, and I don't feel confident we will bounce right out. My strong personal conviction is that a move toward a more definitively socialist model of governance is absolutely necessary in the face of increased automation, dwindling fuel supplies, and increased precarity.
    posted by Miko at 11:54 AM on June 24, 2016 [8 favorites]


    either Boris Johnson or Michael Gove are going to be the next PM

    Because British Boomers looked at the Trump vs Cruz shitshow across the pond and thought "We need one of those!"

    Buffoon vs Weasel, round 2: I'm tipping another victory for Buffoon.
    posted by flabdablet at 11:55 AM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


    And as far as concern trolling goes, some of you may not be *intending* that, but that is what you are inadvertently doing.

    UKIP *fucking lied* to the population about the 350 million pounds thing. If there's one thing I've learned in security it's that you can't compete against a determined state-sponsored threat actor out to get what they want.

    So stop with this "we've got to change our messsage" hand wringing. I did this after the 2000 and 2004 US elections and it was *useless*. Counterproductive.

    Take it to the opposition hard and believe in your facts and your understanding of the future you *know* is the correct arc of history. Tie the tories (and ukip and whoever else) to this boat anchor and sink 'em.
    posted by Annika Cicada at 11:56 AM on June 24, 2016 [44 favorites]


    30 days later Texas votes 98% to come back.

    That's the part that's a fantasy; Texas politicians would never admit the mistake, even in the face of total social and economic collapse.
    posted by aught at 11:56 AM on June 24, 2016 [8 favorites]


    I'm really not trying to US up this thread, but the posts from people who voted leave because it was a "shock" or flipped the table or whatever and that's what needed to happen are scaring the fucking shittity fuck out of me because some of them are literally word for word what i've heard from trump supporters. And i've literally gone to a trump rally out of curiosity and listened to them speak.

    To the people saying we're not on the darkest timeline, ok yea maybe we're not, but we're at the choose-your-own-adventure fork in the road and there's an awful lot of pondering going on.
    posted by emptythought at 11:57 AM on June 24, 2016 [32 favorites]


    This thread seems to have now reached the consensus hive mind point that any opposition to the EU was vile racist idiocy.

    Let's be a little more accurate here: Opposition to remaining in the EU was complicit with vile racist idiocy. Or did all those cutesy posters and billboards showing brown invading hordes mean nothing?

    The EU may not have been a socialist enterprise, but at least it was not nationalist nor was it fascist.
    posted by Existential Dread at 11:57 AM on June 24, 2016 [44 favorites]


    And let's please keep Texas out of this, I live here and don't want that derail on top of this issue.
    posted by Annika Cicada at 11:57 AM on June 24, 2016 [11 favorites]


    roomthreeseventeen, yes, we voted, but in my MP's constituency (and in many others), there was actually a majority for Remain. In my opinion, this gives my MP a mandate to oppose the progress of this whole mess. This is what our representatives are for.

    In fact, I think MPs have a mandate to act in their constituents' best interests, no matter the vote in their constituency. In my opinion.
    posted by Quagkapi at 11:58 AM on June 24, 2016 [5 favorites]


    Tie the tories (and ukip and whoever else) to this boat anchor and sink 'em.

    Yes Boris and Nigel are the dogs who finally caught up to the car.
    posted by (Arsenio) Hall and (Warren) Oates at 11:58 AM on June 24, 2016 [7 favorites]


    In fact, I think MPs have a mandate to act in their constituents' best interests, no matter the vote in their constituency. In my opinion.

    I mean, I'm an American, so my only comparison is our delegate process, and there would be riots if delegates voted in whatever they decided the best interest of the country was.
    posted by roomthreeseventeen at 12:00 PM on June 24, 2016


    Take it to the opposition hard and believe in your facts and your understanding of the future you *know* is the correct arc of history. Tie the tories (and ukip and whoever else) to this boat anchor and sink 'em.

    You know what, I'm fine with that too. If you want to view the oppositional as unredeemable, then do your electoral math, figure out how many moderates you need to peel off to win, and then fight like hell. I don't know how Labour is these days, but certainly the Democrats don't seem to be very good at either bipartisanship messaging in a way to win over Republican voters (as opposed to 'bipartisanship' that consists of rolling over to legislators); or fighting. Instead it's all sort of tepid scolding. If you want to stick to your guns instead of trying to convert, then fine, but you go and get that 51%.

    From what I've read about the Remain campaign, they did not seem to have actually fought. They stuck to the "No sensible person would dare to vote against neoliberalism" non-strategy.
    posted by Apocryphon at 12:02 PM on June 24, 2016 [5 favorites]


    People are getting bent out of shape about searches for "what happens when we exit" and assigning the searches to leave voters.
    Judging by the vox pops the BBC broadcast tonight, the average London leave voter is an ageing boomer sitting around in a dismal pub during working hours, wittering things like, "I've got me country back!" while wearing obviously borrowed Army memorabilia. I can't imagine anyone like that doing even basic internet research to inform their votes.

    Having said that, though, that's kind of the problem. I don't really know any leave voters; my ward went "remain" by one of the highest percentages in the UK. All I have to understand the other side are these ludicrous caricatures. Bubbles, man.
    posted by Sonny Jim at 12:02 PM on June 24, 2016 [3 favorites]


    > This thread seems to have now reached the consensus hive mind point that any opposition to the EU was vile racist idiocy.

    The EU was not a socialist project.
    posted by Coda Tronca at 11:53 AM on June 24 [+] [!]


    I mean I'm an American, and I'm kind of a doofus besides that, but right now I'm comfortable saying that despite the EU being on the whole a misguided project, leaving the EU was a terrible decision for the UK to make, largely because the UK had the good parts of the EU (freedom of travel, EU workplace regulation, EU subsidies) without the bad parts (currency union). Moreover, there seem to be very good purely contingent reasons for the UK not to pull out, based on the accreted decades of UK law and institutions becoming deeply entangled with EU law and institutions. From my position of relative ignorance, the "it's like unscrambling an egg" metaphor seems apt.

    I am absolutely willing (eager, in fact) to hear counterarguments here. Right now I'm looking at my facebook feed — chock full of American leftists — and at the moment I feel confident in saying that most of the pro-leavers in that demographic can be dismissed as accelerationists. I'm sort of starved for good left arguments for brexit, and I don't know if I'm not finding them because they don't exist or if I'm not finding them because I'm not looking in the right places.
    posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 12:04 PM on June 24, 2016 [17 favorites]


    They haven't left yet. No deal terms have changed.
    posted by Thistledown at 2:49 PM on June 24


    They Have. Junker has stated that the last round of negotiated terms are now void. the UK gets no more concessions, no more special treatment, no more handling with kid gloves. They wanted out. Now, they are. Don't tarry by the gate, England, the rest of Europe and the world economy doesn't have the time or energy to listen to your regrets and second-guesses.

    Welcome to the jungle.
    posted by Chrischris at 12:09 PM on June 24, 2016 [4 favorites]


    They may not know it, but leavers are Complicit in a terrible crime.

    It makes me wonder if the potential dissolution of the EU could be the thing that results, after a lot of turmoil, in a stronger, more centralized European state. Not unlike the US under the Articles of Confederation and then the Constitution. But I dread to see what it would take for people to put up with a true European equivalent of a federal constitution. If WW2 wasn't enough to do it (and De Gaulle being a horrible prick with the ECM afterward), I don't really want to see what would be enough.
    posted by chimaera at 12:10 PM on June 24, 2016 [6 favorites]


    I'm sort of starved for good left arguments for brexit, and I don't know if I'm not finding them because they don't exist or if I'm not finding them because I'm not looking in the right places.

    The EU shitting on the entire population of countries, to prop up the banks, might be a good place to start.
    posted by veedubya at 12:10 PM on June 24, 2016 [13 favorites]


    Sometimes the horseshoe theory of politics makes sense. Sometimes, you almost get an O, as the reckless far lefties and the nuttiest far righties strain close together and just barely softly kiss.
    posted by nom de poop at 12:11 PM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


    Paul Mason: “The Left-Wing Case for Brexit (One Day)” might suit?
    posted by pharm at 12:11 PM on June 24, 2016


    Damon Young at VSB on Why Brexit Should Scare the Fuck Out of You for American readers (hint: racism for political gain further emboldened).
    posted by TwoStride at 12:11 PM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


    I'm sort of starved for good left arguments for brexit, and I don't know if I'm not finding them because they don't exist or if I'm not finding them because I'm not looking in the right places.

    The EU shitting on the entire population of countries, to prop up the banks, might be a good place to start.
    posted by veedubya at 3:10 PM on June 24 [+] [!]


    LOL
    America
    China
    Japan
    posted by Chrischris at 12:14 PM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


    You're going to think I'm crazy for saying this, but the EU is also, essentially, a dictatorship. By "dictatorship" here, I mean that the actual opinions of the common people have little to no relationship to EU policy.

    By that definition, so is the UK.
    posted by Dysk at 12:14 PM on June 24, 2016 [11 favorites]


    > The EU shitting on the entire population of countries, to prop up the banks, might be a good place to start.
    posted by veedubya at 12:10 PM on June 24 [+] [!]


    That's an argument for the EU being bad, which I wholeheartedly agree with. But there's a gap between "the EU is bad" and "the UK should leave the EU immediately."

    Again, position of ignorance, but it seems to me that most of the shitting the EU has done, it's only been able to do because of the currency union, and that the UK withdrawing from the EU doesn't do much of anything to save the shat-upon countries.
    posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 12:15 PM on June 24, 2016 [7 favorites]


    You Can't Tip a Buick, it says, plainly and simply, that that is a club that I, as a socialist, don't want to be a member of.
    posted by veedubya at 12:17 PM on June 24, 2016


    And to think I was in the middle of moving money out of sterling when this happened.

    Maybe I can add "lost it all in the crash" to my old timey affectations
    posted by The Whelk at 12:17 PM on June 24, 2016 [8 favorites]




    FFS, Mefites.

    You've all spent 8 years complaining about how our political processes showed themselves utterly inadequate to the task of addressing the crisis of 2008, and how all our institutions are beholden to Big Money.

    In Europe, that blame belongs squarely with Brussels. Now Britain's Parliament has a mandate to start exercising, democratically, every prerogative that Brussels had arrogated to itself. And you don't recognize it for the opportunity that it is?
    posted by ocschwar at 12:21 PM on June 24, 2016 [7 favorites]


    If there's one saving grace it's that the UK has control over their own currency.

    And as far the EU goes, yeah it's got a lot of really shitty problems but having a voice in future of the EU is no longer the UK's concern after last night.

    Y'all are in divorce proceedings now. Who best deserves custody and responsibility for raising the UK children. The message of Remain or the message of Leave?
    posted by Annika Cicada at 12:22 PM on June 24, 2016


    Now Britain's Parliament has a mandate to start exercising, democratically, every prerogative that Brussels had arrogated to itself. And you don't recognize it for the opportunity that it is?

    Perhaps you haven't noticed the loud nationalist and anti-immigrant ranting and raving that has included the murder of a progressive MP? Or the fact that the people driving this 'opportunity' immediately began to walk back the promises they made to get to this point?
    posted by Existential Dread at 12:25 PM on June 24, 2016 [51 favorites]


    Now Britain's Parliament has a mandate to start exercising, democratically, every prerogative that Brussels had arrogated to itself.

    I'm sure fiscal stimulus is right at the top of the Tory government's list.
    posted by T.D. Strange at 12:26 PM on June 24, 2016 [20 favorites]


    The only financially-stable country in Europe that I see being overrun by "Big Money" is the UK.
    posted by schmod at 12:27 PM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    Paul Mason: “The Left-Wing Case for Brexit (One Day)” might suit?

    Letters: A closer look at the leftwing case for Brexit

    Includes this gem:
    Paul Mason writes “in Britain I can replace the government”. If that’s true, why hasn’t he done it?
    posted by effbot at 12:28 PM on June 24, 2016 [3 favorites]


    Perhaps you haven't noticed the loud nationalist and anti-immigrant ranting and raving that has included the murder of a progressive MP?

    I also noticed that 3 decades of deindustrialization has had a lot to do with engendering that resentment, and that the EU has had a lot to do with it.


    Or the fact that the people driving this 'opportunity' immediately began to walk back the promises they made to get to this point?

    IBYM "immediately discredited themselves by walking back those promises."

    If you don't take this opportunity to shame them under the rock where they belong, it would be worse than a crime. It would be a blunder.
    posted by ocschwar at 12:29 PM on June 24, 2016


    Ah, here comes the points my dad, bless him, made to calm me down/know it all over the phone today. Let's look at the bright side: we can now have a Discussion about Europe. Discourse and reflection and the EU is terrible anyway and why are you so upset this is all theoretical. Right? It's not like this is affecting any real lives right now or anything!

    ...I'm not saying that's wrong, but going straight to the theoretical discussion of nature of the European Project is really difficult for those of us who are still taking in all the stories of people who are hurting, and being hurt. It's really difficult for those of us who have ourselves been hurt.
    posted by harujion at 12:30 PM on June 24, 2016 [5 favorites]


    The left-wing case for Remain, from Yanis Varoufakis

    I visited towns in England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland, seeking to convince progressives that dissolving the EU was not the solution. I argued that its disintegration would unleash deflationary forces of the type that predictably tighten the screws of austerity everywhere and end up favouring the establishment and its xenophobic sidekicks.
    posted by maggiemaggie at 12:35 PM on June 24, 2016 [6 favorites]


    veedubya, so far you've offered four reasons for your Leave vote:

    1. a "gut feeling" that Britain "doesn't belong"
    2. the Czechs you live among are racist and make you uncomfortable
    3. the EU has imposed terrible austerity on its poorer members
    4. as a socialist you simply "don't want to be a member"

    All of these boil down to the fact that you find UK's membership in the EU to be personally compromising or distasteful, in a moral sense. But UK belonging to the EU makes you a "member" only in a nebulous, two-levels-removed way; I'm not proud of things my state or country does, but I try to change those policies through voting and activism. On the other hand, voting Leave puts you in the company of proud racists and makes you directly responsible for encouraging their dangerous rhetoric. It also fixes nothing.
    posted by theodolite at 12:36 PM on June 24, 2016 [15 favorites]


    So the only other passport I'm eligible for is Israel, think I'll pass on the military service thanks. Might accelerate popping the question to my Aussie partner
    posted by Shikantaza at 12:37 PM on June 24, 2016


    They have just voted for the destruction of the U.K. Those Union Jacks you're (Leavers) toting around? That blue is for Scotland. Get rid of those flags, because the blue is out of the Union.

    I'm just stunned and so sad today.
    posted by persona au gratin at 12:39 PM on June 24, 2016 [11 favorites]


    theodolite, everybody that voted Remain is in the company of, among others David Cameron and George Osborne. The two people who have gleefully inflicted more harm on the weakest in UK society since peak-Thatcher. DC and GO and their disgusting Tory/LibDem government are, incidentally, why I chose to leave the UK.

    It's sad that you don't approve of my choices, but I didn't ask for your approval. I made my choice as a matter of conscience.
    posted by veedubya at 12:43 PM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


    I'm having a hard time seeing the bank of Scotland consolidating into the euro?
    posted by Annika Cicada at 12:44 PM on June 24, 2016


    So you decided to stand with Farage and Johnson oookay.
    posted by like_neon at 12:45 PM on June 24, 2016 [26 favorites]


    Get rid of those flags, because the blue is out of the Union.

    The weird thing is that earlier I thought "It's time." We should to the whole boiling. It's time for Scottish independence; It's time for a reunited Ireland. I don't know whether it always was, but it definitely is now. If we're going to do this, we need to do it properly.
    posted by Grangousier at 12:46 PM on June 24, 2016 [3 favorites]


    I can't believe all the Lexit voters think that real, on the ground conditions for the most marginal people in British society will somehow get better after Brexit. I agree with nearly all of their criticisms of the EU. But the actual conditions of people in a perma-Tory England/Wales rump state will be much, much worse.
    posted by dhens at 12:46 PM on June 24, 2016 [19 favorites]


    theodolite, everybody that voted Remain is in the company of, among others David Cameron and George Osborne. The two people who have gleefully inflicted more harm on the weakest in UK society since peak-Thatcher.

    Any everyone that voted Leave is in the company of, among others Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage. The two people who, given the chance, would gleefully inflict more harm on the weakest in UK society than what David Cameron and George Osborne could dream up.
    posted by Talez at 12:47 PM on June 24, 2016 [26 favorites]


    (That's just the dreaded "gut feeling", though.)
    posted by Grangousier at 12:47 PM on June 24, 2016


    Quite a few comments on cstross's blog (linked upthread) are discussing the possibility of a second referendum. The idea is that the terms of exit, having been negotiated with Brussels, would then be put to a vote, giving those with buyer's remorse a second chance.
    posted by werkzeuger at 12:48 PM on June 24, 2016 [4 favorites]


    like_neon, no I made my choice despite, temporarily, sharing common cause with people that I despise.

    Given that the leading spokespeople of both sides are utter shites, I'm guessing that lots of people had to hold their nose whilst voting.
    posted by veedubya at 12:48 PM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    Also, this was earlier in the thread, but the Crown of England and the Crown of Scotland have not existed as separate legal / political entities since 1707 with the Acts of Union. So, if Scotland does become independent, it could well keep the royal family as head of state, but a new position of "Queen of Scotland" would have to be (re-)created, like Queen of Canada, Queen of Australia, Queen of Tuvalu, Queen of Jamaica etc. have already been.
    posted by dhens at 12:48 PM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    Talez - look at the shit that Ian Duncan Smith and Chris Grayling have already inflicted on people. These are people with hard-ons for the post-EU England.
    posted by Grangousier at 12:48 PM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    theodolite, everybody that voted Remain is in the company of, among others David Cameron and George Osborne. The two people who have gleefully inflicted more harm on the weakest in UK society since peak-Thatcher.

    You voted against 1 percent of the people you otherwise agree with and with 90 percent of the ones you don't. Well played.
    posted by Etrigan at 12:49 PM on June 24, 2016 [19 favorites]


    The awesome thing about this is that it absolutely destroys the number 1 prerogative of both the Conservative and Labour Parties in the UK: defend The City.

    Pretty hard to be Europe's financial center when you are out of Europe.

    I wonder how the least democratic couple of acres in Europe outside of the Vatican City is enjoying themselves today.
    posted by srboisvert at 12:50 PM on June 24, 2016 [6 favorites]


    > You Can't Tip a Buick, it says, plainly and simply, that that is a club that I, as a socialist, don't want to be a member of.

    I actively dislike the United States government, think that it exists to prop up capital and white supremacy, but I don't think California should secede from it. I appreciate the argument about not wanting to be entangled in distasteful organizations, on a level of maintaining personal purity, but personal purity is when you get down to it a concept that's alien to leftism.
    posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 12:50 PM on June 24, 2016 [25 favorites]


    but a new position of "Queen of Scotland" would have to be (re-)created, like Queen of Canada, Queen of Australia, Queen of Tuvalu, Queen of Jamaica etc. have already been.

    you can't have beyonce, she's ours and we're not giving her up
    posted by poffin boffin at 12:51 PM on June 24, 2016 [26 favorites]


    > Quite a few comments on cstross's blog (linked upthread) are discussing the possibility of a second referendum. The idea is that the terms of exit, having been negotiated with Brussels, would then be put to a vote, giving those with buyer's remorse a second chance.

    This is really what should've happened in the first place, because it would've given people a more informed choice than "status quo versus god-knows-what."
    posted by savetheclocktower at 12:51 PM on June 24, 2016 [3 favorites]


    Personally I'd have thought the nominees for Queen of Scotland were Kelly Macdonald, Susan Calman and Lulu, but then I'm a fucking London sassanach and I know nothing.
    posted by Grangousier at 12:53 PM on June 24, 2016


    You voted against 1 percent of the people you otherwise agree with and with 90 percent of the ones you don't. Well played.

    What?
    posted by veedubya at 12:54 PM on June 24, 2016


    I almost abstained because voting with Gove and the Pigfucker was nigh on unbearable
    Not voting against Farage was something I couldn't live with.

    I think I'm not alone, and there is a massive opportunity for a left-wing populist to get my vote. Problem is the labour party seem determined to get rid of him.
    posted by fullerine at 12:54 PM on June 24, 2016 [6 favorites]


    Sometimes the horseshoe theory of politics makes sense. Sometimes, you almost get an O, as the reckless far lefties and the nuttiest far righties strain close together and just barely softly kiss.

    And so started my search for some Trump/Sanders slash.
    posted by 445supermag at 12:55 PM on June 24, 2016 [4 favorites]


    I appreciate the argument about not wanting to be entangled in distasteful organizations, on a level of maintaining personal purity, but personal purity is when you get down to it a concept that's alien to leftism.

    No true (independent) Scotsman blah blah blah...
    posted by veedubya at 12:55 PM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]



    I appreciate the argument about not wanting to be entangled in distasteful organizations, on a level of maintaining personal purity, but personal purity is when you get down to it a concept that's alien to leftism.


    Only some fool from the Judean People's Front would say that.
    posted by ocschwar at 12:59 PM on June 24, 2016 [4 favorites]


    I think I'm not alone, and there is a massive opportunity for a left-wing populist to get my vote.

    This is the thing - I want to grab Labour "moderates" by the lapels and scream "These people who joined the party after Corbyn, they're not all fucking Trotskyists. They're a sizeable constituency you can appeal to. But you have to appeal to them, you can't just patronise and despise them."

    But that's too long to scream properly. I'd have to stop in the middle for a breath and spoil the effect.
    posted by Grangousier at 1:00 PM on June 24, 2016 [14 favorites]


    I think I'm not alone, and there is a massive opportunity for a left-wing populist to get my vote. Problem is the labour party seem determined to get rid of him.

    fullerine, up until the last couple of weeks, I thought that Corbyn would be the reason that I'd vote for Labour for the first time since John Smith died. To say that I've been disillusioned is a bitter understatement. I wouldn't have cared whether he argued for Remain or Leave, but I wanted to see him make a passionate argument one way or the other. Instead we got a soggy flannel.
    posted by veedubya at 1:00 PM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


    the Crown of England and the Crown of Scotland have not existed as separate legal / political entities since 1707 with the Acts of Union

    It goes further back than that. The crowns were unified in 1603*, resulting in two separate states ruled by the same person, creating a personal union. The Acts of Union operated on the states, creating a political union.

    * Strictly speaking there remained two separate crowns, but the right to both crowns became vested in the same person (and his heirs).
    posted by jedicus at 1:00 PM on June 24, 2016


    This thread seems to have now reached the consensus hive mind point that any opposition to the EU was vile racist idiocy. The EU was not a socialist project.

    I've no doubt that there are objections to the EU that are not "vile," "racist," or "idiotic," but to my eyes, here in the US, the votes to leave the EU at the present time seem to have been one or more of the three. But if it's comforting to tell yourself that the EU "is not a socialist project" while you watch your country disintegrate into something that will be by no means "socialist," well, then, you take your comfort where you get it.

    (I'll say that for Ralph Nader—he never broke up the country.)
    posted by octobersurprise at 1:00 PM on June 24, 2016 [9 favorites]


    Best comment I've seen
    This morning feels like that moment in Ghostbusters when the inspector shuts down the containment unit.
    posted by theora55 at 1:00 PM on June 24, 2016 [43 favorites]


    I'M FROM THE EPA
    posted by Existential Dread at 1:02 PM on June 24, 2016 [3 favorites]




    This morning feels like that moment in Ghostbusters when the inspector shuts down the containment unit.

    Well that's apt seeing as Nigel Farage has no dick.
    posted by Talez at 1:02 PM on June 24, 2016 [12 favorites]


    If you're thinking that for some people this was a popularity contest between a pig-fucking millionaire-careerist corporate puppet, a Chancellor of the Exchequer whose qualifications add up to destroying a restaurant, destroying the UK economy, and graduating from the Moron Academy, and two other careerist politicians, one of whom is a neo-fascist, rather than thinking of what a Brexist means for the people who have actually thought through the moral and ethical outcomes for their livelihoods, and for the livelihoods of their friends, rethink your position before you insult us, please.

    Go back to watching Big Brother.
    posted by urbanwhaleshark at 1:03 PM on June 24, 2016 [11 favorites]


    This looks extraordinarily bad
    posted by Sonny Jim at 1:03 PM on June 24, 2016 [4 favorites]


    I'm sure there were "good Germans", to borrow a phrase from HST, who thought a vote for National Socialism would fix the economic devastation of post-WW I reparations, who held their nose about the other stuff. It strains belief to think that people would still make that kind of bargain, especially older people who have lived through WW II or at least its after-effects, but as Beverly points out, it was the UK that has made that choice and will have to make its people and others suffer the social and economic consequences.
    posted by a lungful of dragon at 1:04 PM on June 24, 2016 [9 favorites]


    Go back to watching Big Brother.

    #teamDa'Vonne
    posted by roomthreeseventeen at 1:04 PM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    Well put, urbanwhaleshark. Wholeheartedly agree.
    posted by veedubya at 1:05 PM on June 24, 2016



    the Crown of England and the Crown of Scotland have not existed as separate legal / political entities since 1707 with the Acts of Union

    It goes further back than that. The crowns were unified in 1603*, resulting in two separate states ruled by the same person, creating a personal union. The Acts of Union operated on the states, creating a political union.

    * Strictly speaking there remained two separate crowns, but the right to both crowns became vested in the same person (and his heirs).


    That was one of the reasons for the Acts of Union in 1707, because after the Glorious Revolution in 1688-89 (which modified the rules of succession, leaving the option for a potentially competing heir) and Scotland's fiscal troubles in the 1690s, there was a fear that the Scots might opt for a different monarch than that of England, jeopardizing the de facto "Great Britain" created by the personal union. So, they made it official.
    posted by dhens at 1:06 PM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    But if it's comforting to tell yourself that the EU "is not a socialist project" while you watch your country disintegrate into something that will be by no means "socialist," well, then, you take your comfort where you get it.

    Aw shucks, thanks for the patronising bullshit about what comforts me, American dude.
    posted by Coda Tronca at 1:06 PM on June 24, 2016 [5 favorites]


    In case you were wondering what Sarah Palin thinks about all this.

    Nope.
    posted by Drinky Die at 1:06 PM on June 24, 2016 [21 favorites]


    In case you were wondering what Sarah Palin thinks about all this.

    not any more likely than me wondering what something i just flushed down the toilet thinks about all this.
    posted by poffin boffin at 1:08 PM on June 24, 2016 [9 favorites]


    like_neon, no I made my choice despite, temporarily, sharing common cause with people that I despise.

    But you do think Farage and Boris' shit stink less than Cameron's.
    posted by like_neon at 1:08 PM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    Given that the leading spokespeople of both sides are utter shites, I'm guessing that lots of people had to hold their nose whilst voting.

    I don't understand this mentality at all. I proudly voted Remain. I wasn't voting for Cameron or for Boris. I was voting for an issue that affected the country. Did people think this was a football game?

    If I was voting *for* anyone, it was probably the heads of the Wildlife trust who basically concluded that the EU was a force for good and the environment and climate change actions would be severely jeopardized if we left.
    posted by vacapinta at 1:08 PM on June 24, 2016 [42 favorites]


    In case you were wondering what Sarah Palin thinks about all this.

    "Everything I know about the world, I learned from a Fox News ticker."
    posted by effbot at 1:10 PM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    Texit.
    posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 1:10 PM on June 24, 2016


    thanks for the patronising bullshit about what comforts me, American dude.

    I can make you a great deal on some Common Law Grand Juries.
    posted by octobersurprise at 1:11 PM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    But you do think Farage and Boris' shit stink less than Cameron's.

    No, I don't. But do carry on telling lies about me. It's obviously playing well to the gallery.
    posted by veedubya at 1:11 PM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


    If the crown of Scotland is up for grabs I should mention I look amazing in a a robe of state.
    posted by The Whelk at 1:12 PM on June 24, 2016 [21 favorites]


    Fuck it. Stupid is stupid and bigots are bigots and no I won't build a bridge to them.

    Megami, one of your allies in the Remain camp was Jeremy Clarkson, whose bridge 'had a slope on it'.
    posted by veedubya at 1:13 PM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


    Have we reached the point where all of our opinions are awkwardly boiling over into transphobic/sexually-Othering jokes about people who are, admittedly, horrible?

    Well that's apt seeing as Nigel Farage has no dick.

    Ah.
    posted by duffell at 1:13 PM on June 24, 2016 [6 favorites]


    one of your allies in the Remain camp was Jeremy Clarkson, whose bridge 'had a slope on it'.

    One of your allies in the Leave camp murdered someone last week. Feel free to stop trying to convince people that you're on the side of the fucking angels.
    posted by Etrigan at 1:15 PM on June 24, 2016 [56 favorites]


    no I made my choice despite, temporarily, sharing common cause with people that I despise.

    must not godwin must not godwin must not godwin

    Wait, was that out loud?
    posted by Behemoth at 1:15 PM on June 24, 2016 [5 favorites]


    Have we reached the point where all of our opinions are awkwardly boiling over into transphobic/sexually-Othering jokes about people who are, admittedly, horrible?

    Well that's apt seeing as Nigel Farage has no dick.

    Ah.
    posted by duffell at 4:13 PM on June 24 [+] [!]


    Ah. I think you missed a further Ghostbusters reference, where the EPA man, Walter Peck, and the Ghostbusters are in the mayor's office.

    Aykroyd says, motioning to EPA man Walter Peck, "Everything was fine until dickless here shut down the grid."

    Mayor: "Is this true?"

    Venkman: "Yes. it's true. This man has no dick."
    posted by Thistledown at 1:17 PM on June 24, 2016 [7 favorites]


    A person's reasons for voting a certain way may be perfectly valid to them without affecting the fact that the result is a shitstorm.
    posted by Mooski at 1:17 PM on June 24, 2016 [3 favorites]


    look, there were assholes on both sides of this, and no doubt some of the abstainers are assholes

    this is really not getting us anywhere
    posted by savetheclocktower at 1:18 PM on June 24, 2016 [6 favorites]


    The deeper fear among Tory remainers now isn’t just of a recession. It’s about the rise of something new in British politics, unleashed when politicians with scant respect for truth meet desperate voters; and for the backlash to come, when it sinks in that Brexit hasn’t ended immigration overnight or magically given depressed communities their futures back. Already, one wonders what those who voted desperately for change make of being told there’s no rush to invoke article 50 ... But control is what the Brexiters said they wanted. Now they’ve got it, and they’re about to find out how it feels.
    Gaby Hinsliff, A pyrrhic victory? Boris Johnson wakes up to the costs of Brexit, Guardian (24 June 2016)
    posted by Sonny Jim at 1:18 PM on June 24, 2016


    Both Remain and Leave were total shitshows. The binary choice was therefore to err on the side of picking the least dangerous option which was Remain. Cameron and Osbourne are both diabolical but had we chosen Remain we could at least have tried to reverse the damage of austerity via a Labour/Green/SNP vote in 2020 and then utilised that to segue into a successful exit when we had a better fallback.

    If your choices are Diabolical and Done or Diabolical and Option Open why on Earth would you choose the former? I am so far left on the Political Compass that I literally fall off the bottom left corner and even I know that the latter option is overall the better choice for me, those around me suffering from austerity, the people of Europe and those outside.

    The circular firing squad is already in session though so let's all moan about how this choice was the only rational one, avoiding the obvious fact that this was in fact the worst political decision since the invasion of Iraq.
    posted by longbaugh at 1:23 PM on June 24, 2016 [19 favorites]


    It's sad that you don't approve of my choices, but I didn't ask for your approval. I made my choice as a matter of conscience.

    Well, I hope the righteousness of your decision will compensate for the weight of its consequences.
    posted by theodolite at 1:23 PM on June 24, 2016 [16 favorites]


    As a dutch person, fine, you chose to leave the EU, now leave as quickly as possible, thank you.
    posted by Pendragon at 1:23 PM on June 24, 2016 [3 favorites]




    So I am being asked to consider that not everyone on the Leave side is the same, that they all had different and individual reasons for voting out, but you are happy to lump me in with Clarkson.
    Oh the irony.


    No, you are being asked to consider that in a binary contest with shitheads talking up both sides, it's entirely possible that people may have voted despite those shitheads not because of them. That goes both ways. Glasshouses, sauce for the goose, etc.
    posted by veedubya at 1:24 PM on June 24, 2016




    must not godwin must not godwin must not godwin

    Wait, was that out loud?
    posted by Behemoth


    One of Mike Godwin's Tweets.
    posted by ZeusHumms at 1:25 PM on June 24, 2016 [4 favorites]


    Well, I hope the righteousness of your decision will compensate for the weight of its consequences.

    At the moment, completely hypothetical consequences.

    I didn't claim that I made a righteous decision. I made the decision that I thought was right based on my personal feelings. As, I assume, did everybody else who voted that didn't have a gun to their head.
    posted by veedubya at 1:27 PM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    Shock Brexit result: how did the bookies get it so wrong?

    I've seen this question asked a few times today, and I don't quite understand it. How would a bookie get anything "right" or "wrong"? After all, it's the bettors whose actions set the odds.
    posted by (Arsenio) Hall and (Warren) Oates at 1:28 PM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    The price to re-join the single market should be simple:
    The UK should be required to join schengen, extend and accept right of abode for all participating European nations, and open the borders at Eurostar etc.
    If you want free flow of capital, then you have to take the free flow of people along with it.

    I want all the other rights the EU provides, but this seems like a neat one-to-one deal that should put the lie to a lot of "I voted leave but not because I'm racist or fear immigrants" kind of talk.
    posted by rum-soaked space hobo at 1:29 PM on June 24, 2016 [9 favorites]


    Mod note: A couple comments removed. Y'all let's (a) drop the Ghostbusters/dickless thing all around and (b) just kinda cool it a little in general. If you're finding yourself coming back repeatedly at other folks over a point of clear and unreconciling disagreement it's probably a good idea to just recognize that and step away from the thread for a while.
    posted by cortex (staff) at 1:31 PM on June 24, 2016 [17 favorites]


    The "Liberal Leavers" just don't get it. The awful neoliberals running the EU were one of the few things moderating the awful neofascists in power in the United Kingdom and keeping them from doing some pretty bad shit. The result will be Tories/UKIP Gone Wild and you can't evade some responsibility for it.

    #notallbrexits are racists and fascists but you have seriously empowered the racists and fascists.

    Get back to me in 6 months about your "completely hypothetical consequences". History says you'll have to come crawling, if you still have working knees at all.

    Now we in America have to fight to keep the #BernieOrBust boys from committing the same nation-killing act.
    posted by oneswellfoop at 1:31 PM on June 24, 2016 [35 favorites]


    Shock Brexit result: how did the bookies get it so wrong?

    I've seen this question asked a few times today, and I don't quite understand it. How would a bookie get anything "right" or "wrong"? After all, it's the bettors whose actions set the odds.


    It's not a simple equation, like "$X has been bet for, $Y has been bet against, therefore the odds are X:Y". The bookies set initial odds and spreads (which is a huge opportunity for them to get things wrong right out of the gate), and adjust from there based not just on which way people are betting, but on where the bookies think more people will bet if the odds change, information that hasn't made it to the public (or portions thereof), and other factors.
    posted by Etrigan at 1:33 PM on June 24, 2016 [3 favorites]


    Shock Brexit result: how did the bookies get it so wrong?

    Basically, given a choice between continued neoliberalism and a shift to outright fascism, a lot more people will choose fascism in private than will admit to it in public. (See Trump poll results.)
    posted by Naberius at 1:34 PM on June 24, 2016 [10 favorites]


    Get back to me in 6 months about your "completely hypothetical consequences". History says you'll have to come crawling, if you still have working knees at all.

    There is no history to suggest anything for this. This is a completely unprecedented event. Hence, 'hypothetical consequences'.
    posted by veedubya at 1:35 PM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    One of your allies in the Leave camp murdered someone last week.

    This is insanely overheated. It was a plebiscite.

    As it seems to be an OK MeFi thing to go 'full personal' within a political debate, I would like to mention at this point that I lived through the experience of having my Marxist-Feminist mother nearly beaten to death by supporters of the far right, of whom there were far, far more in 1980s London who used to be called the National Front and who make up 25 percent of the vote in France and many other EU countries. I still think the EU sucks and did not endorse it yesterday, although she went further and voted Leave, as did Tariq Ali and most other UK Trotskyists.
    posted by Coda Tronca at 1:35 PM on June 24, 2016 [6 favorites]


    Basically, given a choice between continued neoliberalism and a shift to outright fascism, a lot more people will choose fascism in private than will admit to it in public. (See Trump poll results.)

    Huh? Trump's poll numbers in the primaries were largely correct. It's just that people didn't believe them. Same with Leave -- in the week before the vote, the aggregate of polls had Leave ahead.

    The polls haven't been the problem. It's people not wanting to believe the polls that has been the problem.
    posted by (Arsenio) Hall and (Warren) Oates at 1:37 PM on June 24, 2016 [11 favorites]


    Basically, given a choice between continued neoliberalism and a shift to outright fascism, a lot more people will choose fascism in private than will admit to it in public. (See Trump poll results.)

    This makes me wonder if I should put money on Trump winning the presidency (if the action's good) while voting for Clinton. God knows my family and I will need all the help we can get, financial or otherwise, in the event of a Trump win.
    posted by duffell at 1:37 PM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    This makes me wonder if I should put money on Trump winning the presidency (if the action's good) while voting for Clinton. God knows my family and I will need all the help we can get, financial or otherwise, in the event of a Trump win.

    I wouldn't bother. The electoral college will thankfully stop most of the stupidity.
    posted by Talez at 1:41 PM on June 24, 2016


    Get back to me in 6 months about your "completely hypothetical consequences". History says you'll have to come crawling, if you still have working knees at all.

    There is no history to suggest anything for this. This is a completely unprecedented event. Hence, 'hypothetical consequences'.


    "Look, I just threw this match into a tank of petrol! How was I supposed to know it would catch on fire?"
    posted by dhens at 1:41 PM on June 24, 2016 [7 favorites]


    The Whelk on the Scottish throne would indeed be awesome.
    posted by persona au gratin at 1:41 PM on June 24, 2016 [9 favorites]


    I think maybe the thing happening is that people with consequentialist theories of ethics are looking at people with theories rooted in virtue ethics and saying their tactics are bad, while the virtue ethics people are looking at the consequentialists and calling them ethically tainted. These ethical schema are maybe not reconcilable, which means we're doomed to at least in some part talk past each other.

    For my part — and I apologize for the True Scotsman / People's Front of Judea phrasing above — I personally distrust the idea that we should make decisions based on extricating ourselves from associations we don't want any part of, largely because it seems, well, anti-materialist; we can't make extricating ourselves from associations we did not choose and often dislike a primary goal, because the material world is on the whole a set of associations that we didn't choose and often dislike.

    I think institutional processes are more important than values, because institutional processes are how values are made present in the world, and I think the most valuable parts of left thought are the ones that focus on institutional processes, what effects (or consequences) they have, and on how we might devise tactics to intervene in/seize control of those processes. From this perspective the UK leaving the EU seems like a tactical blunder for leftists, even though it may allow UK citizens to feel better about the sorts of association they're in.

    I think in theory I value purity much, much less than most other people. I do in fact think that individual purity is a concept that fits in better with right-wing philosophy and values than left-wing philosophy and values — even though a ton of leftists make the maintenance of individual purity central to their ethics. As such I tend to give severe side-eye (lookin' at you, Trotskyists, lookin' at you) to people on the left who tend to privilege individual purity over other values.

    That said, in practice rather than theory, I tend to become a shambling anxious wreck, even more than I normally am, when I try to advocate for political causes that make me feel impure or conflicted or even just, I don't know, oogy inside. And this oogy-inside feeling persists even if I think that the consequences of advocating for those causes will be good.
    posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 1:41 PM on June 24, 2016 [58 favorites]


    The limits on political prop bets are usually quite low, especially at the off shore grey market books available to the average American bettor. $200 at +285 (from 5dimes) is only a profit of $570. That's not going to go real far to ameliorate the pain of a Trump win.
    posted by T.D. Strange at 1:42 PM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


    HOT takes! HOT takes! Gitchyer HOT takes!*

    Brexit is not about Britain
    Brexit: the Biggest Global Monetary Shock Since 2008 - "Brexit is the biggest global monetary shock since 2008. This could be the tipping point that turns the existing global slowdown of 2016 into a global recession. Here is why."
    Why today is a great day for democracy
    With a single vote, England just screwed us all
    What will happen now? - "If Scotland or Northern Ireland or both do peel off, the immediate prospects are fairly grim for people in what – the term is obsolete – used to be called Labour’s ‘heartlands’ in Rump UK."
    Nicola Griffith: UK RIP - "Here’s the thing: it won’t always be bad. If the EU breaks it will eventually be remade, and remade better. But it could take a very loooong time. And meanwhile many people will suffer and die—I mean many and I mean die. I am thinking of those millions of refugees for starters. And people like me: crips and queers and people of colour, those the disgruntled turn on when the going gets sticky."

    *takness, hotness not guaranteed. buyer beware
    posted by the man of twists and turns at 1:43 PM on June 24, 2016 [4 favorites]


    theora55: "This morning feels like that moment in Ghostbusters when the inspector shuts down the containment unit."

    Note that as in the Brexit vote Peck didn't actually throw the switch; he convinced the working class electrician do it for him.
    posted by Mitheral at 1:43 PM on June 24, 2016 [27 favorites]


    Trump's poll numbers in the primaries were largely correct. It's just that people didn't believe them.

    Was referring to more recent polls showing Trump losing badly to Clinton. For the point I was trying to make, the polling in the Republican primaries is irrelevant. There's literally one person in the whole country I can name who I would want to see become President less than Donald Trump. That person is Ted Cruz. That's the kind of year its been.
    posted by Naberius at 1:43 PM on June 24, 2016


    Was referring to more recent polls showing Trump losing badly to Clinton.

    So am I. The polling in Trump vs Clinton should be believed because the polling has been correct. Saying "this polling probably isn't correct" is making the same mistake that people made during the Republican primary, only in reverse.
    posted by (Arsenio) Hall and (Warren) Oates at 1:44 PM on June 24, 2016 [8 favorites]


    Coda Tronca, my mother came in her mid-teens with her family to the UK from Ireland. Within a couple of days she had a job working at the Co-Op. Within a week of that she was leaving work when she had the shit beaten out of her by some National Front thugs who objected to her accent. Spent a couple of weeks in hospital. This was during the height of the 'No blacks. No Irish. No dogs.' period.

    Yet now, apparently, I'm as one with those thugs because I chose to vote my conscience.
    posted by veedubya at 1:44 PM on June 24, 2016 [4 favorites]


    If you want to know why racism, and fascism, and bigotry appeal to many, bear in mind that their intangible assets--relationships, community, identity, solidarity--are worth many times their monetary wealth.
    posted by Emma May Smith at 1:47 PM on June 24, 2016 [5 favorites]


    Yet now, apparently, I'm as one with those thugs because I chose to vote my conscience.

    Well, you voted to give them what they wanted. Sorry, I'm sure you love your mother and stuff, but if a bunch of thugs and bastards want some thing X because it supports their thuggish bastardy, and you agree to give it to them, your reasons are your own, but you still gave them the thing they wanted to support their thuggish bastardy.

    Like I said about Trump voters a while back here, you don't get to vote Nazi and than disclaim any responsibility for the war and the camps because you just wanted the autobahn and the Volkswagens.
    posted by Naberius at 1:47 PM on June 24, 2016 [56 favorites]


    You chose to vote your conscience, to bad it's going to screw the UK over.
    posted by Pendragon at 1:47 PM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    Can I suggest we keep the US election talk in the US election thread?
    posted by zachlipton at 1:48 PM on June 24, 2016 [8 favorites]


    That includes discussion of polling accuracy?
    posted by (Arsenio) Hall and (Warren) Oates at 1:48 PM on June 24, 2016


    Yet now, apparently, I'm as one with those thugs because I chose to vote my conscience.

    If what you want on an issue matches the fash line, maybe take some time to figure out why and reevaluate.
    posted by Pope Guilty at 1:50 PM on June 24, 2016 [9 favorites]


    Yet now, apparently, I'm as one with those thugs because I chose to vote my conscience.

    Seems your conscience told you to vote for far fewer people being able to tell your "my mother came here to the UK from another country, and within a couple of days she had a job" story in the future.
    posted by effbot at 1:50 PM on June 24, 2016 [45 favorites]


    And not only is your vote going to screw the UK over, it's also going to screw the economy of my country, the Netherlands, over. So thanks.
    posted by Pendragon at 1:52 PM on June 24, 2016 [3 favorites]


    May I please ask that we on the Left, who are on the same side, please stop berating one another. It's done. It was probably a bad idea. Let's work together now. Pretty please?
    posted by longbaugh at 1:53 PM on June 24, 2016 [11 favorites]


    I don't think I've ever seen such a display of open contempt for democracy, and for anybody that makes the 'wrong' choice. Unbelievable.

    I think this is the worst Mefi thread I've ever seen.
    posted by veedubya at 1:57 PM on June 24, 2016 [15 favorites]


    It's done. It was probably a bad idea. Let's work together now. Pretty please?

    I'm up for that. I mean I get that it's kind of a shitty choice to have to make (the neoliberalism vs. fascism part). But hey, I'm an American who came of age in 1980 (I am old.) My entire adult life has been one of shitty political choices. We have a responsibility to make the least shitty choice possible.
    posted by Naberius at 1:59 PM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


    Respect for Democracy means that you're allowed to vote how you want. It also means people are allowed to tell you when they think your vote was foolish.
    posted by Justinian at 1:59 PM on June 24, 2016 [88 favorites]


    Pick 20 random threads from 10 years ago; I bet you find a worse one.
    posted by Mitheral at 2:00 PM on June 24, 2016 [13 favorites]


    It's not contempt for democracy. You have made your choice, fine. But your choice is going to have major economic consequences.
    posted by Pendragon at 2:00 PM on June 24, 2016 [9 favorites]


    I don't think I've ever seen such a display of open contempt for democracy, and for anybody that makes the 'wrong' choice. Unbelievable.

    It was hardly a mandate. It's a bit odd you're surprised that the discussion is contentious here, too.
    posted by chimaera at 2:01 PM on June 24, 2016 [7 favorites]


    I'm actually extremely impressed there's been very little need for mod interference. I've mostly been skimming, but people have been angry and I'm glad the mods decided 'a little anger seems appropriate at this point and no one's being a total dick to each other so it's cool'.

    veedubya you're not helping the thread be better though.
    posted by DynamiteToast at 2:01 PM on June 24, 2016 [3 favorites]


    > I don't think I've ever seen such a display of open contempt for democracy, and for anybody that makes the 'wrong' choice. Unbelievable.

    I think this is the worst Mefi thread I've ever seen.


    Ask me how I know you haven't been following the U.S. election threads...
    posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 2:02 PM on June 24, 2016 [28 favorites]




    I think this is the worst Mefi thread I've ever seen.
    posted by veedubya at 1:57 PM on June 24 [4 favorites +] [!]


    Funny how it's the one where folks disagree with you.
    posted by a box and a stick and a string and a bear at 2:03 PM on June 24, 2016 [35 favorites]


    I am, perhaps, out of my depth...

    This referendum vote was really a massive expression of opinion, and there is significant (reported) backlash even among proponents.

    But no actual damage has been done here, right? I mean, financial markets sway on news all the time, and this is certainly big news, but no borders have changed, no laws have been passed, and no one has pulled the pin on the grenade yet, right?

    They've only voted for the idea of it, so far.

    So shouldn't we all take a deep breath, step back a moment and contemplate this?

    Healthy debate and discourse is good - it's one of the reasons I come to MeFi - but the level of invective and anger here seems disproportionate to actual consequences thus far. In my limited view.
    posted by Thistledown at 2:03 PM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


    I absolutely respect democracy. I will cheerfully insist that undemocratic systems inherently cannot be legitimate. But that doesn't mean that I agree with every choice made by democratic means, or that I will affirm, celebrate, and refrain from criticizing and condemning a terrible, terrible decision simply because it was made democratically.
    posted by Pope Guilty at 2:04 PM on June 24, 2016 [17 favorites]


    Look at the history of 'merica encouraging honest elections (Syria in the 50's) and then a coup is staged six months when the "wrong" choice is made by the ignorant indignants.

    Just wait, first articles I read was how the "clause 50(?)" would take two years and the splitting out the countries that want to "remain".
    posted by sammyo at 2:04 PM on June 24, 2016


    No, the UK chose to leave, so let them leave, as quickly as possible.
    posted by Pendragon at 2:05 PM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    People are utterly terrified. This places so many basic things in jeopardy (homes, careers, livelihood, living standards, relationships, nation). It's an unprecedented situation for so many of us; no wonder the discussion is ... contentious. This isn't an academic disagreement; it's visceral and people are scared for their futures.
    posted by Sonny Jim at 2:05 PM on June 24, 2016 [31 favorites]


    Many, many of the people you want me to build a bridge with are out and out racists. And they refuse to believe reality - I have had discussions with these people, and as Catseye eloquently points out above, they refuse to accept reality when that reality gets in the way of what they want to believe. As in these people willfully reject reality. Not because of the political elite, or a loss of manufacturing, or the EU. But because of hate. And stupidity.

    I think the grim fact is that those who you consider racist and/or stupid have always been a part of the electorate, and in recent years that segment has gotten more angry and more prone to voting overtly racist and stupid politicians. If you think they should be defeated, then by all means, organize and go all out and defeat them. But if you're not able to, then you have to realize that at the end of the day they are still your common man, many of them have been screwed over by the same economic and political forces that are screwing you over, and something- and I reiterate, I don't know what- needs to be done in order to either convert them.

    And the other point is that accusing people for being racist is no longer useful. It's become a politicized term that's weakening and weakening. The rise of the alt-right is a testament to that; it's become countercultural to embrace atavistic prejudices. All of this is horrible and should be combated. But you can't fight it using the same tactics and strategies of the past.
    posted by Apocryphon at 2:05 PM on June 24, 2016 [12 favorites]


    In case you were wondering what Sarah Palin thinks about all this.

    not any more likely than me wondering what something i just flushed down the toilet thinks about all this.

    “I’m very concernedwaaaaaaaaa………!”
    posted by Going To Maine at 2:07 PM on June 24, 2016 [6 favorites]


    I wonder how many Brits living and working in the EU woke up today to find that their fellow Brits had voted their jobs and homes away.
    posted by Pope Guilty at 2:07 PM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    It's not contempt for democracy. You have made your choice, fine. But your choice is going to have major economic consequences.

    So amazing to see MeFi go full technocrat. People were wringing their hands here about a fall in the stock markets earlier.
    posted by Coda Tronca at 2:09 PM on June 24, 2016 [3 favorites]


    No, the UK chose to leave, so let them leave, as quickly as possible.

    Under the rules of article 50, that means up to two years and mutual agreement among the other 27 member nations.
    posted by Going To Maine at 2:09 PM on June 24, 2016


    The rise of the alt-right is a testament to that; it's become countercultural to embrace atavistic prejudices. All of this is horrible and should be combated. But you can't fight it using the same tactics and strategies of the past.

    Well, to be fair, we haven't actually tried burning Atlanta again. It sure worked wonders the last time.
    posted by Naberius at 2:09 PM on June 24, 2016 [3 favorites]


    I need to give the Leftist Leavers a break... being UK citizens, they just haven't experienced what we have in the USofA where our division between the Executive and Legislative has demonstrated clearly that there is no better alternative to Neoliberalism in politics today, only the strong-arm neofascism of the 'mainstream' Republicans or the one-man kleptocracy of Dictator Donald. The British system gives a false sense of "well, we can do a lot better", although a British Bernie Sanders would be as impotent as, if not more, than Jeremy Corbyn.

    a display of open contempt for democracy
    Here in California, Direct Democracy gave us a law prohibiting same-sex marriage that was overturned by a Supreme Court directly elected by nobody. And California is still suffering the effects of 1978's Proposition 13. Put me down as highly suspicious of anything calling itself "democracy".

    Let's work together now. Pretty please?
    Okay, explain to me how you're going to get a Tory/UKIP dominated British government to support the kind of Global Warming actions that the EU has committed to before the rising sea level washes over your proud island nation.

    I think this is the worst Mefi thread I've ever seen.
    The truth hurts like a bitch, doesn't it?
    posted by oneswellfoop at 2:10 PM on June 24, 2016 [12 favorites]


    So amazing to see MeFi go full technocrat

    What's technocrat about wanting this whole mess to go away as quickly as possible ?
    posted by Pendragon at 2:11 PM on June 24, 2016 [3 favorites]


    Well, to be fair, we haven't actually tried burning Atlanta again. It sure worked wonders the last time.

    Sherman's March to the Sea is cool and all but times have changed so one should probably pick a different locale to go Washington on
    posted by Apocryphon at 2:11 PM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    I wonder how many Brits living and working in the EU woke up today to find that their fellow Brits had voted their jobs and homes away.

    How does citizenship work in the EU exactly? Is there any kind of larger EU citizenship that a British national could choose to retain? Basically electing to "Remain" (on an individual level) in another country as an EU citizen?

    Or would they pretty much just become aliens with only British citizenship and no particular right to remain where they are?

    If the latter, Jesus Christ!
    posted by Naberius at 2:13 PM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    I don't think I've ever seen such a display of open contempt for democracy, and for anybody that makes the 'wrong' choice. Unbelievable.

    There are plenty of pro-democracy advocates and theorists who argue against the notion that intermittent voting is the purest expression of the people's will.
    posted by MetalFingerz at 2:13 PM on June 24, 2016 [4 favorites]


    No, EU citizenship is contingent on being a citizen of an EU member country. Your country leaves the EU? You’re no longer an EU citizen.
    posted by pharm at 2:14 PM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


    The New Yorker cover.
    posted by 1970s Antihero at 2:14 PM on June 24, 2016 [29 favorites]


    Wow. That really sucks. I suspect there are going to be a lot of residency/citizenship applications to deal with across Europe.

    Or refugees...
    posted by Naberius at 2:15 PM on June 24, 2016


    Coda Tronca: "So amazing to see MeFi go full technocrat. People were wringing their hands here about a fall in the stock markets earlier."

    People dying is one of the results of an economic collapse/downturn.
    posted by Mitheral at 2:16 PM on June 24, 2016 [33 favorites]


    Let's not forget that for the past 25 years conservative tabloids in the UK have relentlessly attacked the EU by feeding the public a daily serving of lies, distorted truths and exaggerations about EU policies (known as Euromyths). Things like "EU wants to stop binge drinking by slapping extra tax on our booze" (The Sun, Feb 2016) or "EU wants to ban bingo callers from using phrases like “two fat ladies”" (more on the Euromyths page of the EU website). The Brexit is also the product of a deliberate, decade-long smear+FUD campaign against European institutions that basically taught the public to see the EU as a bogeyman.
    posted by elgilito at 2:17 PM on June 24, 2016 [32 favorites]


    The EU could hasten things by invoking Article 7 and suspend the UK, pending Article 50 separation. Article 7 talks about violations of Article 2, which is pretty general, and the actions of the Leave campaign could be construed as such, in the Cardinal Richelieu sense.
    posted by chimaera at 2:18 PM on June 24, 2016 [3 favorites]


    People were wringing their hands here about a fall in the stock markets earlier.

    Whilst I am no financial whizkid I can't pretend that the vagaries of international finance do not impact me and mine. Those stock market losses translate into lost businesses, lost jobs and will directly make the world a worse place for many. We're not weeping for bankers, trust me.
    posted by longbaugh at 2:20 PM on June 24, 2016 [29 favorites]


    So amazing to see MeFi go full technocrat. People were wringing their hands here about a fall in the stock markets earlier.

    And? MeFites are a highly educated bunch, and as we can see have lots of different perspectives, interests, and concerns. I'm concerned about the stock market tanking and chaos in the currency markets for a lot of reasons. My personal investments are there but not super high on that list. Employment, recession, climate change, full-throated nationalism; all of these things are moving in a not-great direction, and we should address them with every means possible, be it political, technocratic, or whatever. We're not some sort of leftist salon debating how this dovetails with our socialist principles.

    Me, I've had Cave In's Trepanning stuck in my head all day.

    We're going over the cliff together
    This time I'll hold my breath

    To the edge of the pit
    Till the blood is shed

    I will be watching you plunge
    to your death

    posted by Existential Dread at 2:21 PM on June 24, 2016 [9 favorites]


    It’s not contempt for democracy. You have made your choice, fine. But your choice is going to have major economic consequences.

    So amazing to see MeFi go full technocrat. People were wringing their hands here about a fall in the stock markets earlier.

    Having invested my savings in plates of beans, I remain unconcerned.
    posted by Going To Maine at 2:22 PM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


    Tomorrows FT cover.
    posted by pharm at 2:22 PM on June 24, 2016


    Okay, explain to me how you're going to get a Tory/UKIP dominated British government to support the kind of Global Warming actions that the EU has committed to before the rising sea level washes over your proud island nation.

    If full nightmare happens, England+Wales is left with a Tory/UKIP after Scotland and Northern Ireland bolt, that sounds like the time for desperate measures. As in, go for ultra-aggressive voting drives to get as close to 100% youth and other oppositional demographics voting as possible. It'd be incredibly difficult but that's what it would take in a desperate situation. The U.S. might very well require such measures in the coming election.
    posted by Apocryphon at 2:23 PM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


    People dying is one of the results of an economic collapse/downturn.

    The societal collapse in progress here is not just limited to economic effects, either.
    posted by a lungful of dragon at 2:27 PM on June 24, 2016 [4 favorites]


    Whilst I am no financial whizkid I can't pretend that the vagaries of international finance do not impact me and mine.

    Another world is possible. If you've lost even sight of that idea then you have nothing to say other than 'please help me, CEOs and Obama and Bilderberg'. I'm 45 with kids. Come on people, the technocratic future is not doable.
    posted by Coda Tronca at 2:29 PM on June 24, 2016 [3 favorites]


    I don't think I've ever seen such a display of open contempt for democracy, and for anybody that makes the 'wrong' choice.

    What the heck did you think was going to happen when you basically gave Europe and the rest of the world a middle finger and told us we're not welcome there? Honestly, are we supposed to appreciate that you don't like us and feel that we're a drag on you?

    And at the same time, how did you react when the US elected George W. Bush? I doubt you were like, "What a great day for the expression of democracy!"
    posted by FJT at 2:30 PM on June 24, 2016 [49 favorites]


    Whilst I am no financial whizkid I can't pretend that the vagaries of international finance do not impact me and mine.

    Another world is possible. If you've lost even sight of that idea then you have nothing to say other than 'please help me, CEOs and Obama and Bilderberg'. I'm 45 with kids. Come on people, the technocratic future is not doable.


    And how will this great future come about in perma-Tory rump England/Wales?
    posted by dhens at 2:32 PM on June 24, 2016 [8 favorites]


    Apocryphon: The problem is that those 18-25 year olds just won’t vote. They piss and moan about how terrible it is when elections don’t go the way they want, but in aggregate they won’t get out there and put their cross in the box. This referendum was sadly not an exception to the rule.

    So the young get shafted, because the old do vote & politicians know it.

    I have no idea what to do about this: I have voted in every UK general election since I was 18, but that makes me the exception, not the rule. If you can convince the young to just match the turnout of the over 65s then you’ll transform UK politics in an instant, so I’m all ears but decade after decade of UK general election have failed to make any impact.
    posted by pharm at 2:33 PM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


    Do we think the rest of the EU is going to make this as painful as possible for the UK so as to keep anyone else from leaving? I've seen some stuff about that, but am not sure yet whether that's an EU consensus yet. After all, isn't there still enough integration of economies that a UK recession will drag down other already anemic parts of Europe?
    posted by Alluring Mouthbreather at 2:33 PM on June 24, 2016


    I don't think I've ever seen such a display of open contempt for democracy, and for anybody that makes the 'wrong' choice.

    Why not have a referendum for every decision made by government? I hear they do that in California.
    posted by My Dad at 2:34 PM on June 24, 2016 [4 favorites]


    The problem is that those 18-25 year olds just won’t vote.

    I know, but I figure that in the face of apocalypse, which their country out of the EU and dissected, people will finally vote if that's what it takes to prevent a one-party takeover. There's gotta be a limit break.

    This referendum was pretty damn important, but people still didn't take it seriously to get educated or to not troll vote. But I figure that there will inevitably be even more important elections.
    posted by Apocryphon at 2:35 PM on June 24, 2016


    Two things come to mind: compulsory voting and proportional representation. The time to start campaigning for those things is now.
    posted by Sonny Jim at 2:35 PM on June 24, 2016 [5 favorites]


    Do we think the rest of the EU is going to make this as painful as possible for the UK so as to keep anyone else from leaving? I've seen some stuff about that, but am not sure yet whether that's an EU consensus yet. After all, isn't there still enough integration of economies that a UK recession will drag down other already anemic parts of Europe?

    I think that just as Greece is the EU's example of what happens when you piss off the rich nations, the UK will be the EU's example of what happens when you leave.
    posted by Pope Guilty at 2:36 PM on June 24, 2016 [12 favorites]


    Mob rule is not democracy.

    Stripping people of their citizenship should not be left to a 50% vote, especially when some of those people whose rights are being taken away were not allowed to vote.
    posted by Zalzidrax at 2:36 PM on June 24, 2016 [36 favorites]


    how did you react when the US elected George W. Bush?

    I didn't get on MeFi and explain how everyone in the USA was a racist.
    posted by Coda Tronca at 2:36 PM on June 24, 2016 [15 favorites]


    Another world is possible. If you've lost even sight of that idea then you have nothing to say other than 'please help me, CEOs and Obama and Bilderberg'. I'm 45 with kids. Come on people, the technocratic future is not doable.

    With all due respect that is magical thinking. The world we live in has financial mechanisms in place and the negative impact of Brexit on those systems will cause upheaval across all national boundaries. I'm 40 with three kids, one of whom would have liked to go to uni in the EU within the next two years, now no longer possible.

    I am a post-nation state anarchist and I could give a fuck about finance but by the same token I'm also a realist and I know that no matter how hard I pray and how hard I work that we're not going to see it all taken down and replaced by Fully Automated Luxury Communism tomorrow.

    For now, please understand - I'm on your side. I don't like where we are, I don't like the decision that has been made on my kid's behalf but we must work together or the world be both want? It's done.

    Really holding out for the Culture to swoop in about now.
    posted by longbaugh at 2:37 PM on June 24, 2016 [37 favorites]


    I know, but I figure that in the face of apocalypse, which their country out of the EU and dissected, people will finally vote if that's what it takes to prevent a one-party takeover. There's gotta be a limit break.

    Not to attack you, Apocryphon, but people's boundless unfounded optimism re: voting patterns never ceases to amaze me. Large groups of people will vote to be whipped and then say "thank you sir, may I have another?"
    posted by dhens at 2:37 PM on June 24, 2016 [5 favorites]


    Why not have a referendum for every decision made by government? I hear they do that in California.

    I can't say I hate it. Sometimes it's awesome and CA gets out ahead of the rest of the nation in a lot of good ways (prop 20 redistricting law). Sometimes we bend over and cram a red-hot poker up our own collective ass (prop 13 property tax law).
    posted by chimaera at 2:40 PM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    Thank you longbaugh, I agree with a lot of what you say.
    posted by Coda Tronca at 2:41 PM on June 24, 2016 [4 favorites]


    There's a third option, which is the Libertarian fantasy that the market will punish racists rather than reward them.
    posted by chimaera at 2:42 PM on June 24, 2016


    There is a two-year negotiating period once Article 50 is invoked, but if the UK doesn't actually invoke Article 50, it cannot be invoked by the rest of the EU, can it? Invoking Article 50 is where the actual Brexit takes place, correct?
    posted by Thistledown at 2:42 PM on June 24, 2016


    I am a post-nation state anarchist and I could give a fuck about finance but by the same token I'm also a realist and I know that no matter how hard I pray and how hard I work that we're not going to see it all taken down and replaced by Fully Automated Luxury Communism tomorrow.

    Seriously, there's worse things than liberalism and fascism is one of them.
    posted by Pope Guilty at 2:43 PM on June 24, 2016 [18 favorites]


    Exactly Thistledown. Only a member country can invoke Article 50. In principle, the UK could play silly buggers for years & annoy the snot out of the EU, but that’s unlikely.
    posted by pharm at 2:44 PM on June 24, 2016


    The EU can invoke article 7 and suspend the UK.
    posted by chimaera at 2:45 PM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


    If the UK does not invoke article 50 quickly enough, the EU could invoke article 7 and revoke voting rights from the UK.
    posted by Pendragon at 2:45 PM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    Ah, thanks. That alters my perception of the situation a bit.
    posted by Thistledown at 2:48 PM on June 24, 2016


    I'm not sure where people in this thread are getting this idea that everything in the UK is fine and dandy and has been for a long time. The UK has been going to shit for a long time, things have gotten worse and worse for a long time - check out various FPPs on here about how bad things are in various areas of the UK. We have been going to hell in a handcart for a long time now, as anyone who reads (for e.g.) Private Eye, or maybe even the Grauniad can tell you. So this idea that suddenly it is a disaster, well it was a disaster before, the country has been fucked for a long time.

    And this has happened while we are in the EU, so the idea that staying would have helped make things better is totally inaccurate - income and wealth inequality has risen massively over the time we have been in the EU. I am not saying it is the EUs fault, but the idea that staying in was making things better is just not right.

    Also, maybe you should ask the people of Greece about how wonderful they think the EU is after what the EU (and IMF) did to them. Maybe now the EU will be a little more considerate in its actions towards places like Greece, Spain, Italy...

    As for leaving, if they want it done quickly, let's do it quickly. There is a formal process that is supposed to take place, so that things can be disentangled, but if the EU wants it over, and so do we, lets just do it asap. Fuck them, they will no longer control us.
    posted by marienbad at 2:48 PM on June 24, 2016 [4 favorites]


    That would be a clusterfuck though (article 7) and the NNNxit dominos may be triggered by the EU actually acting like the scaremongers say they do.
    posted by fullerine at 2:49 PM on June 24, 2016




    The EU and the UK could evoke article 57 and slap each other with fish.
    posted by dances_with_sneetches at 2:50 PM on June 24, 2016 [7 favorites]


    The UK could just create a new Act of Union to extend Great Britain to cover the whole of Europe, and get rid of the EU entirely.
    posted by Apocryphon at 2:51 PM on June 24, 2016


    . Fuck them, they will no longer control us.

    Goodbye to you too.
    posted by Pendragon at 2:52 PM on June 24, 2016 [6 favorites]


    Cleese lives in the US, and Palin lives in the UK. The UK doesn't have a chance anymore if it comes to article 57 fish slapping.
    posted by chimaera at 2:53 PM on June 24, 2016 [4 favorites]


    The most recent post on the UKIP website is from before the referendum. "Your decision today is a simple one: whether there will be a nation called the UK in 20 years’ time." Damn straight!
    posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 2:53 PM on June 24, 2016 [6 favorites]


    Fuck them, they will no longer control us.

    Hey what a coincidence I'm drunk too.
    posted by Grangousier at 2:53 PM on June 24, 2016 [24 favorites]


    I'm not sure where people in this thread are getting this idea that everything in the UK is fine and dandy and has been for a long time.

    Few, if any, people are saying this. They are saying that leaving the EU would not fix things that are bad, and would in fact almost certainly make them worse.

    Fuck them, they will no longer control us.


    Or give you access to the Common Market!
    posted by dhens at 2:53 PM on June 24, 2016 [21 favorites]


    Marienbad - that is the fault of the Tories who have now been enabled to an even greater degree than before. I've said it twice now but third time is the charm - Lexit could have been done right and it would probably be a good start in rolling back neoliberalism but to Lexit safely you need to have Labour/Green/SNP in power.

    Would waiting really have been that bad?
    posted by longbaugh at 2:54 PM on June 24, 2016 [8 favorites]




    People who say voting is a waste of time because the establishment always gets what it wants should pay attention to Brexit and to the nomination of Donald Trump.
    posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 2:54 PM on June 24, 2016 [10 favorites]




    I think that the EU punishing the UK--that is, making withdrawal worse than needs be--would be counterproductive in the long run. Any country in the EU with a strongly eurosceptic population must be engaged in a way which allays their fears. Scaring them into silence only buys a few more years til the problem comes out, in the meantime having worsened.
    posted by Emma May Smith at 2:56 PM on June 24, 2016 [5 favorites]


    And this has happened while we are in the EU... I am not saying it is the EUs fault

    Then, for the love of God, what's your point??
    posted by urbanwhaleshark at 2:56 PM on June 24, 2016 [19 favorites]




    Or give you access to the Common Market!

    Is the endgame President Trump and Prime Minister Johnson signs a TAFTA pact into being?
    posted by Apocryphon at 2:58 PM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    income and wealth inequality has risen massively over the time we have been in the EU.

    Surely you're not saying that, had the UK not joined the EU or had left the EU much earlier, income inequality would NOT have risen?

    Just because income inequality rose massively, that it doesn't follow that being in the EU is what caused it. It's entirely possible that it would have been much worse and will now get much worse much faster by not being in the UK.

    I mean, if you're trying to say that being in the EU made inequality worse and (this bit is just as important) you believe that remaining in the EU will lead to less or at least a lower rate of advance of income inequality, then THAT is a reason to leave the EU.

    But "income inequality was bad while we were an EU member" doesn't make sense.
    posted by VTX at 2:58 PM on June 24, 2016 [18 favorites]


    I think that the EU punishing the UK--that is, making withdrawal worse than needs be--would be counterproductive in the long run.

    The problem is that the EU commission don't seem to be that much brighter than Brexiteers when it comes to consequences.
    posted by Grangousier at 2:58 PM on June 24, 2016 [5 favorites]


    The EU didn't force the UK to keep fucking electing Tories.
    posted by Pope Guilty at 2:59 PM on June 24, 2016 [55 favorites]


    Is the endgame President Trump and Prime Minister Johnson signs a TAFTA pact into being?

    Oh man, will people be shipping Tronson (my neologism tyvm) now? (Caveat: Apparently Trump didn't know who Johnson is when asked about it today.)
    posted by dhens at 3:00 PM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    Neil Henderson has your UK front pages. A few others under the #tomorrowspaperstoday hashtag
    posted by IanMorr at 3:02 PM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    Palin helpfully includes an image of Margaret Thatcher who strongly supported membership of both the UN and EU

    Criminy, even whoever was running Lindsay Lohan's Twitter account last night knows that.
    posted by MCMikeNamara at 3:02 PM on June 24, 2016 [4 favorites]


    On second thought, it was a dumb question. Anything involving this crew and Anglo-American relations will be nothing short of Airstrip One.
    posted by Apocryphon at 3:03 PM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    I think that the EU punishing the UK--that is, making withdrawal worse than needs be--would be counterproductive in the long run.

    What ? And have more countries leave the EU ?
    posted by Pendragon at 3:04 PM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    And how will this great future come about in perma-Tory rump England/Wales?

    Yeah, I'd like to hear more of this and less "hang the bankers" boilerplate. Tell me how Jerusalem will be built in England's green and not-so-pleasant land.
    posted by octobersurprise at 3:04 PM on June 24, 2016 [11 favorites]


    Jeremy Corbyn appears to be Bernie Sanders drained of all wit and charisma
    posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 3:07 PM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


    All this reminds me, anyone seen Osbourne yet? More pertinently, anyone expecting to ever see him again?
    posted by comealongpole at 3:08 PM on June 24, 2016 [3 favorites]


    Coda Tronca: People were wringing their hands here about a fall in the stock markets earlier.

    The Dow dropped 611 points. Its 8th largest drop ever.
    NASDAQ had its worst day since 2011.
    Both the Dow and the S&P lost everything they gained this year.
    Pound sterling lost more than 10% against the US dollar. Its overnight low was $1.3224. Why is that such a big deal? Well, it hasn't been that low in 31 years, since 1985.
    People are now questioning whether the markets will remain in free fall next week.

    People are rightfully concerned. They should be.
    posted by zarq at 3:10 PM on June 24, 2016 [33 favorites]


    > I think in theory I value purity much, much less than most other people. I do in fact think that individual purity is a concept that fits in better with right-wing philosophy and values than left-wing philosophy and values

    Hear, hear.

    Also, my condolences to UK MeFites. I hope it doesn't go as badly for you as people seem to think it's going to.
    posted by languagehat at 3:10 PM on June 24, 2016 [11 favorites]


    To get around getting cut out of the Common Market, the U.K. could join NAFTA, which does have an agreement with the EU. Supposedly Clinton and Blair had such plans, see The Economist: "Dream On?" (2000)
    posted by Apocryphon at 3:11 PM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    Daniel Hannan just on Newsnight. Looks like having used immigration to stir up the anti-EU vote the Brexit Tories are intending to throw their voters under the bus & accept free movement of labour as the price of access to the common market.

    Which I’m sure was the plan all along. Christ.
    posted by pharm at 3:12 PM on June 24, 2016 [8 favorites]


    pharm: "The problem is that those 18-25 year olds just won’t vote. They piss and moan about how terrible it is when elections don’t go the way they want, but in aggregate they won’t get out there and put their cross in the box."

    There are two circles in the Venn diagram (young people who didn't vote and young people pissing and moaning about results). I'd guess there is a weak overlap of those two circles.

    Also I'd bet a lot of the young people not voting are merely undecided rather than indifferent. From what I've seen older people tend to be more confident (not to be confused with less reckless). I mean undecideds should go down and then spoil their ballots so they can be counted but for everyone but stat nerds not going is functionally the same result.

    Pendragon: "What ? And have more countries leave the EU ?"

    Things will be bad enough, I don't think the EU needs to get punitive to have it obvious to other countries that exiting the EU is a bad idea. Maybe I'm too optimistic.
    posted by Mitheral at 3:12 PM on June 24, 2016 [4 favorites]




    I've heard NAFTA being bandied about but looking at the negative impacts on Canada and Mexico I'm not sure that shitty stick is worth grasping.
    posted by longbaugh at 3:13 PM on June 24, 2016


    What ? And have more countries leave the EU ?

    Threatening other countries into silence and submission is not a long run strategy. They will still leave, eventually, but with greater bitterness and less chance to turn them around. The UK deserves the consequences, but punishment for the sake of keeping the others in line will end up harming the EU more.
    posted by Emma May Smith at 3:13 PM on June 24, 2016 [3 favorites]


    My strong personal conviction is that a move toward a more definitively socialist model of governance is absolutely necessary in the face of increased automation, dwindling fuel supplies, and increased precarity.

    As population grows, economies grow, transportation and communications options multiply, and so on, moving in the general direction you indicate becomes the only feasible option for dealing with the social, economic, and health issues that large populations in a modern, mobile society create. When you have social, economic, and health problems that involve hundreds of millions to billions of people, you must have society-scale solutions to match them.

    But, these kinds of solutions make people feel profoundly uncomfortable. They want to retreat to the isolated village of their grandparents, where "Dr. Dave" riding his horse around the village all night long--and paid in chickens, pails of milk, etc--was the health care system. People dropping off a casserole and some spare veggies from their garden on a Sunday afternoon at Widow Jones's house was the welfare system.*

    In the 21st Century, that idealized system just straight-up has no chance of working. But people are profoundly uncomfortable with that fact, and don't like any of the solutions that have any chance of actually working.

    Welcome to 21st Century politics . . .

    *Not that this was ever a realistic solution. Lots of people in these circumstances just died. Or lived brief, very unpleasant lives.
    posted by flug at 3:14 PM on June 24, 2016 [9 favorites]


    All this reminds me, anyone seen Osbourne yet? More pertinentlu, anyone expecting to ever see him again?

    I have an image of him proudly announcing to his mother that he's about to be a Made Man.

    /goodfellas
    posted by Grangousier at 3:15 PM on June 24, 2016 [5 favorites]


    zarq, the stock markets didn't collapse and most people wouldn't give a fuck if they did anyway. Again, amazed to see technocracy rule here.

    Jeremy Corbyn appears to be Bernie Sanders drained of all wit and charisma


    He's been a committed activist working tirelessly, passionately for everything from mental health issues to Palestinian solidarity for over 30 years. He was my MP for 20 years and I saw him walk the streets doing it. Sorry if he didn't cut it for you on some fucking reality TV show.
    posted by Coda Tronca at 3:15 PM on June 24, 2016 [19 favorites]


    Osborne's not known as the Submarine Chancellor for nothing. Presumably, he's surveying the landscape through a periscope from the safety of the ocean depths, choosing his moment for a sudden and decisive surfacing. Either that, or he's packed all the gold onboard and is making a break for Argentina.
    posted by Sonny Jim at 3:15 PM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


    Denmark could easily leave. They’ve tried to before (sort of) & the EU elites effectively made them have a second referendum having threatened hellfire & damnation in order to get the result they wanted.
    posted by pharm at 3:16 PM on June 24, 2016




    Hmmm. My Dad thinks we just got rid of the metric system.

    I don't know what to do with this information so I'm giving it to you. I don't want it.
    posted by vbfg at 3:19 PM on June 24, 2016 [94 favorites]


    Corbyn has... been a committed activist working tirelessly, passionately for everything from mental health issues to Palestinian solidarity for over 30 years. He was my MP for 20 years and I saw him walk the streets doing it.
    And he reluctantly supported Stay, because the alternative was - and is - awful.
    posted by oneswellfoop at 3:20 PM on June 24, 2016 [8 favorites]


    It is weird because when the EU was forcing austerity measures on Greece in order to satisfy German banks I thought that the best thing for Greece to do would be to exit the EU. But during the whole campaign in the UK I was very much of the opinion that there was no good reason for the UK to leave.

    I am really not sure what the Leave supporters think will happen. Are they expecting manufacturing jobs to come back? Those jobs have moved to either cheaper countries in Europe or outside the EU altogether. They're not coming back, and reducing the UKs access to the common market will likely cause even more jobs to be lost. Are they expecting less foreign influence in the UK? Huge swaths of the country are already owned by foreigners, including important industries (wasn't the main news of a couple of weeks ago about Tata Steel thinking of closing a plant and Cameron trying to come to a deal to keep the jobs?) and Rupert Murdoch, an Australian, owns your media. I guess the UK would now have full control of immigration, but it already has that as far as non-white people are concerned. This just means that the UK doesn't have to let Poles, Romanians, and potentially Turks in the future, from migrating to the UK en masse. I guess that is a benefit for a certain segment of the population.
    posted by any portmanteau in a storm at 3:22 PM on June 24, 2016 [3 favorites]


    he reluctantly supported Stay, because the alternative was - and is - awful.

    The thing is, everyone could see he was doing it reluctantly, because he said he was. Leadership involves appearing to enthusiastically support the things you believe to be necessary.
    posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 3:24 PM on June 24, 2016 [6 favorites]


    Threatening other countries into silence and submission is not a long run strategy.

    "We aren't inclined to give you the benefits of EU membership once you've left" isn't threatening the UK. Apparently a whole bunch of voters believed that they would get to keep all the tasty candy bits of EU membership and dump the responsibilities. The EU is just saying that's not going to happen; that's just realism, not threats.
    posted by tavella at 3:24 PM on June 24, 2016 [31 favorites]


    Corbyn was atrocious. Mealy mouthed “well I think on balance you should probably vote X” does not get the vote out. The Remain campaign left entire days open the diary for Labour to take centre stage and they did *sod all*. Sure eventually they panicked & rolled out people who actually know how to reach out to voters (ie, Brown et al) but by then it was far, far too late.
    posted by pharm at 3:25 PM on June 24, 2016 [4 favorites]


    IanMorr: "Neil Henderson has your UK front pages. A few others under the #tomorrowspaperstoday hashtag"

    Are there sport specific issues of mainstream UK newspapers or are those front pages the first page of sport sections? IE: can you go to the news stand and just buy the Times Sports newspaper?
    posted by Mitheral at 3:26 PM on June 24, 2016


    zarq, the stock markets didn't collapse and most people wouldn't give a fuck if they did anyway.

    Then they're fucking morons.

    I'm old enough to have lived through several economic recessions over the years. One while living just above the poverty line. All of them were hellish.

    Again, amazed to see technocracy rule here.

    I honestly have no idea what you mean by this. Being worried that stock and financial markets are plunging is not a vote of support for corporatocracy or whatever you seem to be glibly implying. It's a voiced concern that economic downturns can hit many people very badly.
    posted by zarq at 3:27 PM on June 24, 2016 [75 favorites]


    The New Yorker cover with the Monty Python sillywalkers going over a cliff was interesting because John Cleese lost all my respect recently with an anti-Political-Correctness screed that led to a twitter fight with American webcomicker Jon Rosenberg, who has been more comedically daring and FUNNIER over the last 15 years than Cleese has been over the last 50. Of course, Cleese did his own Leave of the UK a long time ago, but I have no problem with making him the symbol of elitist Tory British politics. He can share a pig with Cameron for all I care about him.
    posted by oneswellfoop at 3:27 PM on June 24, 2016 [3 favorites]


    I, for one, am looking forward to seeing the apocalyptic cover art of next week's Economist.
    posted by palindromic at 3:28 PM on June 24, 2016 [5 favorites]


    any portmanteau in a storm: "This just means that the UK doesn't have to let Poles, Romanians, and potentially Turks in the future, from migrating to the UK en masse."

    But they will; the UK is facing the same demographics time bomb as most (all?) western 1st world nations. Immigration from "acceptable" sources isn't going to fix that.
    posted by Mitheral at 3:31 PM on June 24, 2016 [4 favorites]


    Really holding out for the Culture to swoop in about now.

    ROU_Xenophobe can only do so much under Contact rules.
    posted by snuffleupagus at 3:32 PM on June 24, 2016 [13 favorites]


    Yeah but that's where robots come in. The UK can just follow Japan's lead.
    posted by any portmanteau in a storm at 3:34 PM on June 24, 2016


    Are you at all familiar with Japan?
    posted by Grangousier at 3:35 PM on June 24, 2016 [9 favorites]


    ROU_Xenophobe can only do so much under Contact rules.

    Special Circumstances takes those more as nebulous suggestions than, you know, hard and fast rules.

    What a disaster this is. The UK is going to dissolve in front of us. I'm shellshocked.
    posted by Justinian at 3:35 PM on June 24, 2016 [3 favorites]


    "We aren't inclined to give you the benefits of EU membership once you've left" isn't threatening the UK. Apparently a whole bunch of voters believed that they would get to keep all the tasty candy bits of EU membership and dump the responsibilities. The EU is just saying that's not going to happen; that's just realism, not threats.

    Letting the UK bear the consequences of Leave is fine. Good, even. But some EU politicians have specifically threatened to make leaving the EU as bad as possible. They want to hurt the UK so much that no other member state dares to think about leaving ever again. This is not an issue of what Leavers think or want, but how the EU intends to uphold its position.
    posted by Emma May Smith at 3:37 PM on June 24, 2016 [4 favorites]


    Really holding out for the Culture to swoop in about now.

    First thing we have to do is call in a request (or email it) to BBC World Service Radio that they play "Mr David Bowie's 'Space Oddity' for the good ship Arbitrary and all who sail in her."
    posted by zarq at 3:38 PM on June 24, 2016 [6 favorites]


    Are you at all familiar with Japan?

    Everyone is very polite and likes tea?
    posted by Artw at 3:39 PM on June 24, 2016 [4 favorites]


    As for leaving, if they want it done quickly, let's do it quickly. There is a formal process that is supposed to take place, so that things can be disentangled, but if the EU wants it over, and so do we, lets just do it asap. Fuck them, they will no longer control us.

    Ok. What does it mean to leave ASAP? A few basic questions:
    • You're, say, a Polish citizen who has been living and working in the UK for the past five years. What happens to you? Your family?
    • You're a UK citizen who lives and works in, say, France. What happens to you? Your family?
    • You're a UK citizen who wants to visit Amsterdam for a few days. Under what terms are you admitted? Do you have visa-free access?
    • You're a UK citizen who bought a case of wine in France. How much duty do you have to pay to bring it home?
    • You make landing gears in the UK, but you buy a bunch of the parts from EU countries. Then you export the finished landing gears to an EU country where they put the planes together. Who pays import duty and how much does it cost?
    • You work for the above-mentioned landing gear factory. What happens to you?
    • The terms of your employment are covered by the Working Time Directive. What happens with your job when that goes away?
    • What does it mean for the UK if Scotland and/or Northern Ireland are unhappy with this arrangement?
    And we could ask a hundred more just like these. Nobody can possibly answer them now. These are super serious questions that have direct impacts on the lives of millions of people.
    posted by zachlipton at 3:39 PM on June 24, 2016 [92 favorites]


    These are super serious questions that have direct impacts on the lives of millions of people.

    B-b-b-b-b-but accountability and neoliberalism and stuff!
    posted by dhens at 3:41 PM on June 24, 2016 [11 favorites]


    The default state of leaving is getting none of the benefits; that's what is going to hurt the UK, the fact they don't get access to the common market, that they get to pay tariffs and the like. What the UK wants is some of the candy to make it hurt less, and the EU is saying nah. If you've decided to repeatedly punch yourself in the face, it's not threatening if someone declines to bring you a bag of ice for the bruises.
    posted by tavella at 3:41 PM on June 24, 2016 [4 favorites]


    Are you at all familiar with Japan?

    Everyone is very polite and likes tea?


    Sort of.

    It's a lot more complicated than that.

    As a British person who knows Japan a bit, I'm fairly confident that that doesn't work, anyway.
    posted by Grangousier at 3:41 PM on June 24, 2016


    Really holding out for the Culture to swoop in about now.

    You rang?
    posted by Skaffen-Amtiskaw at 3:43 PM on June 24, 2016 [23 favorites]


    Can someone define "technocratic" for me in some way that doesn't come down to "I don't like these people"?
    posted by Justinian at 3:46 PM on June 24, 2016 [28 favorites]


    If Daniel Hannon on Newsnight is to be believed, the Brexit Tories are about to throw their voters expectations for a clampdown on immigration under the bus alongside the NHS waffle.

    Which was probably the plan all along: Thatcherite Tories believe in the free movement of labour, capital and goods after all & if the proles choose to believe their pre-election claims about immigration then more fool them apparently.

    What will the people who voted for Leave expecting them to do something about immigration do afterwards? Join the BNP I imagine. This is going to be rough.
    posted by pharm at 3:48 PM on June 24, 2016 [5 favorites]


    In further bad news, Independence Day: Resurgence got 1* in the Guardian.
    posted by biffa at 3:49 PM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


    Are you at all familiar with Japan?
    As linked earlier in the thread: Japan
    posted by oneswellfoop at 3:52 PM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    When I use "technocratic" as a term of abuse, typically I'm talking about people who believe that skilled management can supplant democratic decisionmaking — that like the people who know a lot about how things are run are the ones who should make all the key decisions about how things are run.

    As we've seen in the case of the EU's nonsense in Greece, technocratic leaders often end up deciding on legitimately terrible plans and then carrying them out — but carrying them out very very efficiently.

    What's complicating things in this debate is that although technocrats often make bad decisions and then carry them out efficiently, technocrats by no means have a monopoly on bad decisionmaking.
    posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 3:53 PM on June 24, 2016 [13 favorites]


    If Daniel Hannon on Newsnight is to be believed, the Brexit Tories are about to throw their voters expectations for a clampdown on immigration under the bus alongside the NHS waffle.

    But this was always bullshit. And transparent bullshit. They were selling the Norway solution as a viable UK option but it means still paying most of the money we were paying in, still allowing free movement (ie immigration), just not getting a vote in future decisions. It was a lie and an it was an obvious lie. All it required to know it was a lie was that a voter read basic information about the EU before they voted. They chose not to, so fuck them if they don't get what they want, now that they have voted to not get what they want.
    posted by biffa at 3:53 PM on June 24, 2016 [3 favorites]


    Sometimes the horseshoe theory of politics makes sense. Sometimes, you almost get an O, as the reckless far lefties and the nuttiest far righties strain close together and just barely softly kiss.

    It's like someone drew an ensō circle with great gusto... using a turd
    posted by emptythought at 3:54 PM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


    Can someone define "technocratic" for me in some way that doesn't come down to "I don't like these people"?

    Technocracy.
    Technocracy Movement.

    I've only ever heard the phrase used in terms of anti-intellectualism. Describing a situation in which scientists, engineers, "technical experts" and other educated people, take over the government and force their book learnin' on the dumb unwashed masses, to bypass democracy for nefarious purposes.
    posted by zarq at 3:57 PM on June 24, 2016 [14 favorites]


    Thanks. That doesn't seem very much like what we've have now which is government by lawyers and rich folks.
    posted by Justinian at 3:58 PM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


    Oh man, will people be shipping Tronson (my neologism tyvm) now?

    Shipping Tronson Johump fornever.
    posted by snuffleupagus at 3:59 PM on June 24, 2016


    zarq, the stock markets didn't collapse and most people wouldn't give a fuck if they did anyway. Again, amazed to see technocracy rule here.

    Yeah, why should I care if my retirement fund is wiped out?
    posted by octothorpe at 3:59 PM on June 24, 2016 [46 favorites]


    technocrats by no means have a monopoly on bad decisionmaking.
    But the opposite of technocrats - I like to call them idiocrats - make bad decisions even more often, and historically, the decisions they're able to successfully impliment are usually the worst.

    the reckless far lefties and the nuttiest far righties strain close together and just barely softly kiss.
    Considering the personalities of most of the 'nuttiest far righties', it won't just be a kiss and it'll be anything but soft.
    posted by oneswellfoop at 4:00 PM on June 24, 2016 [3 favorites]


    If Daniel Hannon on Newsnight is to be believed, the Brexit Tories are about to throw their voters expectations for a clampdown on immigration under the bus alongside the NHS waffle.

    So if the pro-Leave Tories knew that they weren't actually getting the £350 million they were claiming, and they knew they weren't going to stop immigration the way they were claiming, and they knew they'd have to continue paying even more to the EU if they hoped to have any kind of economy at all as a going concern, then ... why did they do any of this?

    Honest question: what was the fucking point? What did they achieve or hope to achieve? What have they even gained by setting their own house on fire? I can identify and understand racism; I can identify and understand economic innumeracy or fuck-witted decision-making. This I legitimately do not understand. Honest to God I can't see any answer to what's unfolded in the last 24 hours besides either total ignorance or suicidal tantrum-throwing.
    posted by penduluum at 4:00 PM on June 24, 2016 [9 favorites]


    A day in history. Not a good day in history as England votes to become a theme park on the NW corner of Europe featuring the aging Brenda to be followed by Big Ears.
    Scotland´s gone as Nicola Sturgeon made very clear.
    The plan is that there is no plan and that is what is so very scary.
    The over 45´s have destroyed the hopes of youth and that is very sad.
    Upset, I´m fucking gutted in knowing that my reasons for leaving Engerland 45 years ago have proved to be prescient. I feel for Beverly and her ilk, all those hopes dashed by the xenophobic and rascist small mindedness of a selfish isolationist not very clear thinking people.
    posted by adamvasco at 4:01 PM on June 24, 2016 [3 favorites]


    what was the fucking point?

    Staying in power for another election and making money for their corporate puppetmasters?
    posted by Joey Michaels at 4:02 PM on June 24, 2016 [8 favorites]


    > Thanks. That doesn't seem very much like what we've have now which is government by lawyers and rich folks.

    In modern terms "technocracy" doesn't refer to government by engineers or whatever, but instead to government by people who are good at bureaucracy. The "techno" in the word is less about "technology," as in hunks of metal and plastic that do clever things, and more about "techne," meaning skill in the abstract.
    posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 4:02 PM on June 24, 2016 [13 favorites]


    Justinian: It may help to have an example of a government largely held to be technocratic, the quite recent Italian Monti cabinet.
    posted by biffa at 4:02 PM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    I had "fucking hell, that's what it's like" moment. And I'm glad I had it now at 40 rather than later.

    I live in South London - a fantastic mix of all cultures here - I'm a glaringly white Anglo male from Kent - sadly another hotspot for racial tension, but I've lived here for over 20 years and do consider it home. Never no bother. Escaping from that lunatic crackhead was interesting tho. Anyway...

    I don't get scared of anyone. I'm fast if I need to get away from somewhere, gobby enough to talk myself out of a situation if need be. Generally I try to be compassionate and kind.

    The most scary people I encountered tonight were white people. Not because of what they did, or said, but what they looked like.

    That was a fucking wake-up call.

    I'm going to be processing experience that for the rest of my life.
    posted by urbanwhaleshark at 4:04 PM on June 24, 2016 [13 favorites]


    > So if the pro-Leave Tories knew that they weren't actually getting the £350 million they were claiming, and they knew they weren't going to stop immigration the way they were claiming, and they knew they'd have to continue paying even more to the EU if they hoped to have any kind of economy at all as a growing concern, then ... why did they do any of this?

    Honest question: what was the fucking point? What did they achieve or hope to achieve? What have they even gained by setting their own house on fire? I can identify and understand racism; I can identify and understand economic innumeracy or fuck-witted decision-making. This I legitimately do not understand. Honest to God I can't see any answer to what's unfolded in the last 24 hours besides either total ignorance or suicidal tantrum-throwing.


    If I knew a genie that was passing out wishes, one of my wishes (somewhere down on the list, after personal immortality, perpetual youth, and more wishes) would be to know which conservative leaders are accelerationists, which ones are nihilists, and which ones are just garden-variety assholes.
    posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 4:05 PM on June 24, 2016 [7 favorites]




    what was the fucking point?

    Staying in power for another election


    Not quite, we are 4 years from another election. Rather Boris jumped on board as it offered a possible route to getting Cameron out and neutering Osborne, Gove for probably the same reason. Farage was an outsider who has been pursuing this route to power for some time and was given an opportunity by Cameron's kneeling to internal tory politics.
    posted by biffa at 4:07 PM on June 24, 2016 [3 favorites]


    It was about a power grab by the hyper-neo-liberal wing. But seeing the rabbit-in-headlights expression on Gove's face, now I'm not so sure. now it's just stupidity rolling on through sheer momentum, powered by EU commission maliciousness.
    posted by Grangousier at 4:17 PM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    Can someone define "technocratic" for me in some way that doesn't come down to "I don't like these people"?

    they were a band in the 80s and 90s who had a couple of pretty great dance hits that are often found on "best of the 80s/90s" compilation albums
    posted by poffin boffin at 4:19 PM on June 24, 2016 [14 favorites]


    I'm not going to call them 'boomers' anymore. I'm going to respect what they have achieved by calling them 'kaboomers'.
    posted by srboisvert at 4:22 PM on June 24, 2016 [19 favorites]


    famous technocrat
    posted by prize bull octorok at 4:22 PM on June 24, 2016


    they were a band in the 80s and 90s who had a couple of pretty great dance hits that are often found on "best of the 80s/90s" compilation albums

    o i wish
    posted by Grangousier at 4:22 PM on June 24, 2016


    They failed because Margaret Thatcher was interviewed about them on kids Saturday morning TV and said she couldn't dance to them because their tunes had no melody. And promptly stole our young bone-nourishing milk.
    posted by urbanwhaleshark at 4:27 PM on June 24, 2016 [6 favorites]


    It is weird because when the EU was forcing austerity measures on Greece in order to satisfy German banks I thought that the best thing for Greece to do would be to exit the EU. But during the whole campaign in the UK I was very much of the opinion that there was no good reason for the UK to leave.

    But I think that despite the consequences of leaving, it probably would have been better for Greece to leave as the austerity policies were having a devastating human toll and they likely would have been able to get back on their feet more quickly had they been able to go back to (and devalue) the drachma, rather than continue to lurch from crisis to crisis indefinitely. The UK is a totally different situation where EU membership seems to be (overall) a net positive.
    posted by triggerfinger at 4:28 PM on June 24, 2016 [3 favorites]


    this beat is technocratic
    posted by octobersurprise at 4:28 PM on June 24, 2016 [3 favorites]


    And this has happened while we are in the EU, so the idea that staying would have helped make things better is totally inaccurate - income and wealth inequality has risen massively over the time we have been in the EU. I am not saying it is the EUs fault, but the idea that staying in was making things better is just not right.

    "We were falling all the while we were wearing a parachute, I'm not saying it was the parachute's fault but the idea that it was stopping us falling is just not right. I don't understand why everyone's upset that we've taken off the parachute - we were falling anyway."
    posted by Dysk at 4:33 PM on June 24, 2016 [57 favorites]


    Shake your Maastricht
    posted by Going To Maine at 4:34 PM on June 24, 2016 [4 favorites]


    Oh, and Euro So Beautiful
    posted by Going To Maine at 4:35 PM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    I'm in mourning. I'm an expatriate Brit, haven't lived in the UK for over twenty years but today I feel as though I've lost my country. This isn't the world I knew or thought I knew. How did we get so uncaring about each other?

    I owe the EU so much. My life is fundamentally changed for the better because of the EU and the Erasmus grant that took me to Paris and where I met the wonderful Mrs. A. For that, and so much more, I will always be in their debt.

    My heart is broken and I've been on the verge of tears all day.
    posted by arcticseal at 4:37 PM on June 24, 2016 [38 favorites]


    And promptly stole our young bone-nourishing milk.

    And by this I mean she went house-to-house under the cover of darkness and leeched the delicious child-milk from our terrified skeletons.
    posted by urbanwhaleshark at 4:37 PM on June 24, 2016 [18 favorites]


    I've only ever heard the phrase used in terms of anti-intellectualism. Describing a situation in which scientists, engineers, "technical experts" and other educated people, take over the government and force their book learnin' on the dumb unwashed masses, to bypass democracy for nefarious purposes.

    Enh, I will quibble some quibbles with that. Yes, in its original and its most technical (heh) sense, technocracy just means rule by technical expertise, but a lot of people objecting to "technocracy" are objecting to the overconfident notion that governance can be reduced to just knowing which levers to push and when, and you pretty much only need to look at the last 30 years of global economic history to understand why that can sometimes lead to (well-intentioned, meticulously planned) disaster.

    (or what YCTAB said)
    posted by Krom Tatman at 4:40 PM on June 24, 2016 [4 favorites]


    get up! (before your country's over)
    posted by octobersurprise at 4:43 PM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


    Not quite, we are 4 years from another election.

    I have a feeling that a lot of things will happen during those four years, though.
    posted by effbot at 4:48 PM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    I'm just gonna go to the Winchester, have a nice cold pint, and wait for all of this to blow over.
    posted by chillmost at 4:49 PM on June 24, 2016 [45 favorites]


    So... if Scotland and N.I. leave, does that mean they'll need to redesign the flag? Or are the nationalist sorts going to lack the shame to do that...
    posted by Zalzidrax at 4:50 PM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    I'm just gonna go to the Winchester, have a nice cold pint, and wait for all of this to blow over.: chillmost

    Eponysterical and zombietastic.
    posted by urbanwhaleshark at 4:53 PM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


    If Scotland leaves the nationalist sorts would probably love to use the English flag with a green field or a dragon dropped in there somewhere.
    posted by snuffleupagus at 4:54 PM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    Wales will finally be on the flag.
    posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 4:54 PM on June 24, 2016 [3 favorites]




    Dammit, snuffleupagus.
    posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 4:55 PM on June 24, 2016




    Marketplace on NPR echoed a lot of the sentiment in this thread.
    posted by Annika Cicada at 4:59 PM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    "Honest question: what was the fucking point? What did they achieve or hope to achieve? What have they even gained by setting their own house on fire? I can identify and understand racism; I can identify and understand economic innumeracy or fuck-witted decision-making. This I legitimately do not understand. Honest to God I can't see any answer to what's unfolded in the last 24 hours besides either total ignorance or suicidal tantrum-throwing."

    I think they believe that without the constraints of the EU they can go full Thatcher.

    You never go full Thatcher.
    posted by fullerine at 4:59 PM on June 24, 2016 [13 favorites]


    And by this I mean she went house-to-house under the cover of darkness and leeched the delicious child-milk from our terrified skeletons.

    It's pronounced skellington.
    posted by howfar at 5:00 PM on June 24, 2016 [8 favorites]




    You never go full Thatcher.

    yes you can

    it's called Chile
    posted by Grangousier at 5:01 PM on June 24, 2016 [27 favorites]


    Can someone define "technocratic" for me in some way that doesn't come down to "I don't like these people"?

    "a scientist or technical expert who has a lot of power in politics or industry" (Mirriam Webster)

    Bonus
    "Definition of Technocracy
    the government or control of society or industry by an elite of technical experts.
    an instance or application of technocracy. [...]
    an elite of technical experts."

    So I would say its the an idea related to Plato's "philosopher kings", and a way of thinking some blame for totalitarianism as it promotes an elite group to decide for everyone else because they are the only people smart enough to do it...

    The bonus is that this system made possible by the "populists" who undermine access to public education on the grounds that the elites shouldn't get to run everything, thus ensuring that only the elites know how things work because they make sure to get an education... So we have a lovely cycle of two bad plans for how to run a society feeding each other.
    posted by chapps at 5:03 PM on June 24, 2016 [5 favorites]




    In modern terms "technocracy" doesn't refer to government by engineers or whatever, but instead to government by people who are good at bureaucracy.
    posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 4:02 PM on June 24 [4 favorites +] [!]


    So, this form of governance presided over by "people who are good at bureaucracy"... Wouldn't that be best described as a "bureaucracy"?
    posted by a box and a stick and a string and a bear at 5:07 PM on June 24, 2016 [3 favorites]


    Can someone define "technocratic" for me in some way that doesn't come down to "I don't like these people"?

    I don't know how it's being used here, but it's a thing with its own history and context related to early twentieth century progressivism, which basically presumes rule by experts (engineers and scientists, originally) whose ideology is taken not as ideology at all but as objective reality.
    posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 5:10 PM on June 24, 2016 [9 favorites]


    The over 45´s have destroyed the hopes of youth and that is very sad.

    Really?
    posted by marienbad at 5:11 PM on June 24, 2016


    I would be interested to see the demographic skew of those young people who voted for remain, as I would put money on them being AB12, middle and upper middle class young people. How many kids from moss side and Broadwater Farm voted, does anyone know?
    posted by marienbad at 5:12 PM on June 24, 2016


    Can someone define "technocratic" for me in some way that doesn't come down to "I don't like these people"?

    Principal Skinner: "Not only are the trains running on time, they're running on metric time."
    posted by 445supermag at 5:15 PM on June 24, 2016 [8 favorites]


    > So, this form of governance presided over by "people who are good at bureaucracy"... Wouldn't that be best described as a "bureaucracy"?

    I mean it's complicated. I was going to type out a thing about how the words have different valences (bureaucracy is about bureaucratic rule for the sake of bureaucratic rule, technocracy is about the genuine conviction that the people who know how law and finance work are the best to rule, something like that), but really poffin boffin's definition is way better than anything I could come up with.

    also while looking for 80s electronic music that might be appropriate for this thread, I found myself watching this video for the first time in decades. And now I'm complicatedly bummed out, because the last time I watched it Thomas Dolby definitely looked like an adult to me, and now he definitely looks like a child to me, and tl;dr getting old sucks.
    posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 5:16 PM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


    marienbad, with all due respect, do you know how to read a graph?
    posted by a box and a stick and a string and a bear at 5:19 PM on June 24, 2016 [32 favorites]


    "Technocrat" hasn't had the engineering utopia meaning for a while now.

    If it helps, think of "technocrat" as overlapping with "wonk". "Wonk" plus actual political power equals "technocrat".
    posted by tobascodagama at 5:19 PM on June 24, 2016 [7 favorites]


    I suspect Technocracy is derived directly from the Greek techne rather than via Technology - techne is Craftsmanship or Art - technocrats believe they are craftsmen of control. The EU leadership are technocrats; so is Obama, so is Hillary. Blair certainly was. All people who have mistaken "getting away with it" with "success".
    posted by Grangousier at 5:21 PM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


    also while looking for 80s electronic music that might be appropriate for this thread

    Not electronic, but I've definitely been humming "Making plans for Nigel," "Mayor Of Simpleton," and "Up the Junction."
    posted by octobersurprise at 5:21 PM on June 24, 2016 [8 favorites]


    The heirs of the Order of Reason work in secret every day to order the world, push forward Enlightened Science, and purge the world of paranormal Reality Deviants, and this is the thanks they get? Metafilter is totally in the bag for the Traditions, I knew it!
    posted by Pope Guilty at 5:29 PM on June 24, 2016 [6 favorites]


    Call in the HIT Marks!
    posted by robocop is bleeding at 5:32 PM on June 24, 2016 [9 favorites]


    I mean, Alan Greenspan was a technocrat par excellence, spoken of as some sort of wise economic demigod who could fine tune the economy like a machine.

    In order to believe that you have to accept his ideology as being an accurate reflection of reality, and not a Randite fever dream.

    The original technocrats were part of the progressive attempt to reconcile industrial capitalism with modern, democratic government, essentially to preempt labor militancy and radicalism.

    So the problems of industrial/urban society were not because of any structural problems -- the capitalist structure was fine -- it was that government and business were not being run by disinterested experts.
    posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 5:32 PM on June 24, 2016 [7 favorites]


    I would be interested to see the demographic skew of those young people who voted for remain, as I would put money on them being AB12, middle and upper middle class young people. How many kids from moss side and Broadwater Farm voted, does anyone know?

    Page 28. The number of poll respondents of a given social class in each age subgroup were approximately paritous, and young people had a slightly lower proportion of AB-identified folks compared to older groups (37% for 18-24s vs 40% for 55-64)

    Keep reaching, though!
    posted by Krom Tatman at 5:33 PM on June 24, 2016 [15 favorites]


    Why did Scotland, whose economy, from what I understand, seems to be doing much worse than that of the UK in general, vote overwhelmingly for remain?
    posted by dhens at 5:37 PM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    Can we please start ignoring Julian Assange's opinon on everything?
    posted by missmerrymack at 8:43 PM on June 22 [70 favorites +] [!]
    Wikileaks believes Brexit will lead to ‘scrapping’ of Assange warrant
    posted by L.P. Hatecraft at 5:37 PM on June 24, 2016


    also while looking for 80s electronic music that might be appropriate for this thread

    Try later
    posted by snuffleupagus at 5:40 PM on June 24, 2016


    Wikileaks believes Brexit will lead to ‘scrapping’ of Assange warrant

    The Virtual Adepts are working with the Sabbat now. smdh
    posted by Apocryphon at 5:43 PM on June 24, 2016 [6 favorites]


    The Virtual Adepts are working with the Sabbat now. smdh

    And the Ventrue have completely fucked the dog.
    posted by snuffleupagus at 5:44 PM on June 24, 2016 [4 favorites]


    I think you mean the pig
    posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 5:45 PM on June 24, 2016 [8 favorites]


    The Virtual Adepts are working with the Sabbat now. smdh

    It figures Brexit would happen during Second Edition.
    posted by Pope Guilty at 5:46 PM on June 24, 2016 [10 favorites]


    Why did Scotland, whose economy, from what I understand, seems to be doing much worse than that of the UK in general, vote overwhelmingly for remain?

    Trade and manufacturing, plus subsidies and access to the EU shared market (meaning no tariffs for exporting manufactured goods to the market, nor excess costs in importing goods to local economies), and freedom of movement throughout the Eurozone. You know, sensible things and whatnot that allow them to keep operating at a deficit budget like a good Keynesian economy should.

    Basically just plain old economic stability.
    posted by daq at 5:48 PM on June 24, 2016 [15 favorites]


    I don't know, this whole thing seems like a Black Spiral Dancer plot to me. Scotland votes to join the wyrm!
    posted by LeRoienJaune at 5:48 PM on June 24, 2016 [3 favorites]


    Also, It's Grim Up North.
    posted by daq at 5:50 PM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    daq, thanks for your answer. I guess what I was trying to get at is that the "misery = pro-leave" theory seems to fall flat, at least in regard to Scotland.
    posted by dhens at 5:58 PM on June 24, 2016


    George Szirtes, the Hungarian-born English poet and translator, has this to say:

    Now strut about your bunker,
    Your disenchanted grove.
    Welcome to your paradise
    Of Boris, Farage and Gove.

    Now watch the rest of Europe
    Falling apart again,
    Landing in the smelly laps
    Of Wilders and Le Pen.

    Now inspect the damage,
    Now survey the wreck,
    Now pick up your shovel
    And clear up your own dreck.

    And now that Donald Trump
    Is safely on his way,
    Go clink a glass with him.
    It's Independence Day!
    posted by vac2003 at 6:16 PM on June 24, 2016 [15 favorites]


    "This thread seems to have now reached the consensus hive mind point that any opposition to the EU was vile racist idiocy."

    Others have addressed this hours-old comment, but I'd like to chime in. Several people here are critical of the EU for reasons best exemplified by what happened with Greece -- that's certainly true in my case. I strongly favor Grexit, in fact.

    But my sense is that only a very tiny portion of the Leave vote was motivated by this kind of criticism -- not to put too fine a point on it, but I doubt that more than a few percent of the Leave voters understand anything at all about these issues. That's not what is motivating the overwhelming majority of the Leave vote -- just as, for example, economic fears by the working class are not motivating Trump's support in the US. What is motivating both is xenophobic resentment, which can be fairly characterized as a form of racist bigotry.

    Again, there are numerous reasons to be very critical of the EU. For that matter, speaking for myself and as an American, I think that the City of London and, more generally, the finance sector in the UK is the locus for a large part of what's wrong in the UK, it was enabled by the EU and depends upon the EU, and few things would make me happier than a humbling of that sector. It is their interest that austerity has served and to the degree that economic concerns have played a role in the Leave vote, they are going to reap what they've sown. All else aside, the UK will be better off if this results in a reduction in the size of the financial sector. But that's one relatively small good outcome in the context of all the much larger bad outcomes of Brexit. The primary motivation for the Leave vote is vile, most of its backers are vile, and the practical results of Brexit will largely be vile. There may be some legitimate grievances against the EU here and there, but this isn't the way to address them.

    Furthermore, as an American who has been a close observer of the problems in the Euro periphery, it's taken me a long, long time to understand that the idea of Europe, of the EU, has a huge amount of cultural weight that must be reckoned in its own right. It means something. It means something to embrace it or to reject it. Completely independently of what one thinks about the bureaucrats in Brussels, or about the ECB, or any actual policies and institutions. To reject that idea says something about one's fundamental values, one's vision of the future. This is why the Greeks, though overwhelmingly hating the terms of the deal they were offered, nevertheless strongly supported staying in the EU and keeping the Euro. Not because they wanted their cake and to eat it, too, as some suggested, but because they both want a fair deal and they strongly favor the overall European project. Rightly so, on both counts. The people that reject Europe are regressive and xenophobic and it's entirely fair to criticism them in those terms.
    posted by Ivan Fyodorovich at 6:17 PM on June 24, 2016 [50 favorites]


    I'm 45 with kids. Come on people, the technocratic future is not doable.

    I'm from Canada. I have kids. I sure wish my kids had EU passports. With a population of just 36 million, Canada is such a small country, with such limited job prospects, and a cost of living that is become more and more unaffordable literally every day. If I could give my kids a passport to a dynamic economic zone of 500 million people, I would be so happy. Luckily, they have Japanese passports and are truly bilingual and bicultural, so they'll have the opportunity to live and work in a labour market of 100 million people.

    But to be confined to England, with a population of just 53 million, with a service economy and no labour mobility is not what I would want for my children. Being able to live and work anywhere in Europe would be such a gift.
    posted by My Dad at 6:18 PM on June 24, 2016 [20 favorites]


    Mod note: Subthread deleted. This is a really hard thread, and coming in with inflammatory comparisons to a totally dissimilar and unrelated event in a different country is really not starting your analysis on a sound footing. Let's please try not to turn the heat up to 11 with inflamed rhetoric. Thanks.
    posted by restless_nomad (staff) at 6:29 PM on June 24, 2016 [3 favorites]


    Not electronic, but I've definitely been humming "Making plans for Nigel," "Mayor Of Simpleton," and "Up the Junction."

    I've had this one rattling around my head since last night, appropriate I feel for the return of Thatchery Madness.
    posted by Celsius1414 at 6:31 PM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    It means something. It means something to embrace it or to reject it. Completely independently of what one thinks about the bureaucrats in Brussels, or about the ECB, or any actual policies and institutions. To reject that idea says something about one's fundamental values, one's vision of the future.

    Which is why there's plenty of EU supporters outside the UK who cannot wait until the UK is out of the picture, so the EU can start focusing on important things. (They're also really happy that Cameron's deal is no longer on the agenda; the compromises made there are considered more dangerous than a clean exit.)
    posted by effbot at 6:50 PM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    In related news, Donald Trump has announced that the US and the UK will be united together under the Trump administration. Not sure what form of government he has in mind; if the UK will become a state or the US a collection of kingdoms, but I guess we'll find out.
    posted by effbot at 6:51 PM on June 24, 2016


    The English have placed a bomb under the Irish peace process
    Recklessly, casually, with barely a thought, English nationalists have planted a bomb under the settlement that brought peace to Northern Ireland and close cordiality to relations between Britain and Ireland. To do this seriously and soberly would have been bad. To do it so carelessly, with nothing more than a pat on the head and a reassurance that everything will be all right, is frankly insulting.
    posted by BungaDunga at 7:01 PM on June 24, 2016 [40 favorites]




    BBC World on the radio (via NPR) did a bunch of "man/woman on the street" reactions today. One of them was this 80-year-old former soldier who broke down crying about how happy he was that "our soldiers, sailors, and airmen will never take orders from Germany." He got really weepy, recognizing that he wouldn't be around much longer but he never thought he'd see the day. He ended sobbing over and over, "I've got my country back."

    I'm an American, so this isn't as emotional for me. I generally have a lot of sympathies for military sorts, but I just...I simultaneously felt sorry for him and really angry with him.

    Sorry because I kept thinking, "Does this guy even really understand how all this works?" Clearly this was super emotional for him. He really sounded like he needed a hug. And I can totally appreciate that desire to keep one's national military independent, but...dude. You're still part of NATO. All those military alliances don't go away. And they've protected you all this time. WTF.

    Mostly I was angry, because he reminded me so much of all the right-wing guys I knew in the military who were (and are) so sure that the Republicans in the US are the ones best suited to running things, no matter how badly and how consistently Republicans absolutely screw the military and veterans. This sort of mindset is just crazy to me, and I don't know whether I should feel better or worse to see it in another country.

    Then they brought on a very young woman who was also crushed, because so much of this basically crushes her dreams of the future, and she's part of the generation that will have to live with the consequences of this. Her I just felt straight-up awful for. What a terrible thing to have happen right as you start your adult life.
    posted by scaryblackdeath at 7:10 PM on June 24, 2016 [64 favorites]


    "The English have placed a bomb under the Irish peace process"

    That's worth reading for the explanation of the specifics for why this is the case -- which are alarming. It's not just about sentiment (although that's involved, too), it's about numerous practical and legal issues which are inherently destabilizing and problematic.
    posted by Ivan Fyodorovich at 7:11 PM on June 24, 2016 [5 favorites]


    Reflections of a referendum fence-sitter
    If there is one political message that has been reinforced by the surprising success of the Brexit campaign it is that our political class, and perhaps especially the centre-left part of it, has under-estimated the negative consequences—psychological, economic and social—of greater global (and European) interconnection on people in the bottom half of the income spectrum. What may also have been missed is that while many people in the top 20 or 30 per cent of the educational and economic hierarchy have become less attached to national social contracts in the past couple of generations, most people have actually become MORE attached to them.
    posted by the man of twists and turns at 7:17 PM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


    As a really hard-pushing Leftperson who's often felt a discomfort with his fellow opinion-holders and a meta-discomfort about if that discomfort is somehow counterproductive or reflective of prejudices or biases I didn't know I had... maybe one silver lining to this year is how it's made me come to terms with how fucking disgusted I am with the counterproductive self-righteousness of some of my so-called "allies".

    This world needs a major change. And I'm thinking it starts with the left. With creating a genuinely and radically progressive movement that won't leave a streak of shit thirty miles wide out of a refusal to wipe a fucking ass when it needs motherfucking wiping.

    Destroy a nation in your desire to send a message to the EU, you. Never mind the historical trend of economic ruin unleashing waves of bigotry, intolerance, and violence, literally fucking always. God forbid a ten-year-old's understanding of history get in the way of your fine-tuned sense of right and wrong.

    I'd have lived with my doubt happily if it meant preventing a global disaster, but it really is a weight off my shoulders to realize how potently my disgust for that line of thinking truly is, so fucking thank you for that. May you be forced back into a world of reasonable compromises as quickly as we can possibly shove you back into one. I hope I get to see you fuckers seethe.
    posted by rorgy at 7:18 PM on June 24, 2016 [22 favorites]


    Honestly, Britain just fucked itself hard and maybe fucked Scotland and Northern Ireland as well.

    Yes the EU is governed by a technocratic neoliberal cabal that largely reflects the economic interests of France and Germany but the UK more or less had a good deal going and in theory it could've been a counter balance to German rule but of course you guys kinda threw that away because apparently brown people are scary.

    It seems like there are more than a few accelerationists on that side of the pond although I generally fail to see how making things appreciably worse for large sectors of the population is somehow going to result in some broad reallocation of public support towards socialism.

    I mean it seem obvious that you guys are dealing with your own set of consequences for playing on people's economic fears by scapegoating the other. We might get Trump and you are apparently willing to let the racists drive economic and political decisions. My general feeling is that in times of great economic insecurity you get people flocking to the extremes. Yes some of those people become hardcore socialsts but just as many if not more flock towards all sorts of racist, nationalist political parties.

    Ultimately the status quo might've sucked although I think the correlation of economic inequality and UK membership with the EU is a specious one. The US and other areas of the world had massive increases in economic inequality and we never joined the EU. I think it's maybe even plausibe to suggest that UK access to EU markets probably allowed for increased economic prosperity not less.

    I also think that fundamentally choosing to leave was a sign of weakness, basically instead of staying in the EU and working to make it better, more democratic, etc the UK basically took it's ball and went home. And now the EU is supposed to bend over backwards to negotiate even though the UK needs access to the EU more than the EU needs access to the UK.

    Yeah I guess you could join some sort of economic free trade zone with the US but seriously if you guys are concerned about the technocrats in Brussels fucking you over I can't wait to show you how bad the US technocrats can totally fuck you over. Might as well plan on being Puerto Rico 2.0.
    posted by vuron at 7:19 PM on June 24, 2016 [14 favorites]


    > As a really hard-pushing Leftperson who's often felt a discomfort with his fellow opinion-holders and a meta-discomfort about if that discomfort is somehow counterproductive or reflective of prejudices or biases I didn't know I had... maybe one silver lining to this year is how it's made me come to terms with how fucking disgusted I am with the counterproductive self-righteousness of some of my so-called "allies".

    I mean ten points for correctness, but at least negative thirty points for the mismatch between the argument you're making and the way you've made it.
    posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 7:24 PM on June 24, 2016 [4 favorites]


    That's worth reading for the explanation of the specifics for why this is the case -- which are alarming. It's not just about sentiment (although that's involved, too), it's about numerous practical and legal issues which are inherently destabilizing and problematic.

    What I find amazing is the demographic that should know better- the Olds, who lived through the peace process and everything before- blithely voted for Leave anyway.

    Closing the NI border is unthinkable, but so is border checks between NI and the rest of the UK. I can't help but think it's going to be awfully destabilizing. Sinn Fein is already calling for a referendum on an open border with Ireland. Spain wants joint control of Gibraltar. Scotland wants independence (again). By the time this is over and done, there might not be a UK in anything but name.

    This is an instance of an entire nation voting to cut off their nose to spite their face.
    posted by BungaDunga at 7:25 PM on June 24, 2016 [5 favorites]


    Regarding the old guy who seems happy to save his country from the Hun.

    Yeah I get it, old guys in Britain probably sit around and wonder how the allies won the war in WW2 yet somehow the UK is subject to Germany now. I guess the EU must be a personal affront to perceived honor of the UK that some of these guys were willing to fight and die for.

    I think there was more or less an acceptance that the EU could interfere with the sovereignity of smaller states for the greater good but when it came to the EU limiting UK sovereign power especially in regards to immigration policies and freedom of movement suddenly there seems to be an outcry against elites.

    I understand that the monied elites that are so entrenched in London banking circles have made a huge amount of money over the years with access to EU markets and there is resentment of the outsize share of the profits those industries take but by the same token it's possible to see that while in theory the current system is imperfect trying to replace it with something else especially after you just basically fucked London, the North, Scotland, Ireland, etc because some of the technoelite were getting wealthy is kind of fucked.

    It's basically saying that yeah you have the privilege to take a risk despite the fact that so many of your fellow Britons don't have the luxury of being willing to give up a mediocre system on the off chance it can be replaced with something better instead of the likelihood it can get much worse.
    posted by vuron at 7:31 PM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


    111,809 signatures right now (15k/hour), so parliament will have to consider a debate.

    Now over half a million signatures, which puts it in the top three petitions ever:
    1. Give the Meningitis B vaccine to ALL children, not just newborn babies (823,346 signatures).
    2. Block Donald J Trump from UK entry (586,935)
    3. EU Referendum Rules triggering a 2nd EU Referendum (525,111)
    4. Stop all immigration and close the UK borders until ISIS is defeated (463,500)
    5. Accept more asylum seekers and increase support for refugee migrants in the UK (450,287)
    posted by effbot at 7:34 PM on June 24, 2016 [3 favorites]


    I mean ten points for correctness, but at least negative thirty points for the mismatch between the argument you're making and the way you've made it.

    I don't expect any of the people I'm talking about to be any better at listening to reason than the skinhead racists they've aligned themselves with. Actually, given past experiences, I'd bet on better odds with converting the skinheads. Thankfully, those are not the only options.
    posted by rorgy at 7:34 PM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]




    Can London vote to secede from the rest of Britain? Like use the M25 as a barrier between London and the rest of crazy? Yeah it probably wouldn't be practical but it kind of seems like how the big cities in Texas have to just sit around and take shit while the rest of Texas loses it's goddamn mind over something stupid.

    Maybe all the Brexit people inside of the Motorway can just immigrate after partition to Surrey or something.
    posted by vuron at 7:44 PM on June 24, 2016 [3 favorites]


    The "elites" have always been plenty racist themselves, so in that way, they "empowered" the racism and privilege of the lower-class racists. If they didn't want to White Havenots to revolt, they should have made damn sure the Others they let into the country were working under the lower-class racists. A classic mistake.

    That is the most nakedly and astoundingly racist thing in even this thread.
    posted by Dysk at 7:45 PM on June 24, 2016 [13 favorites]


    You know what, on reading flying-rodent's comment I now feel sad for Brits who felt like their only option was to figuratively light their country on fire.
    posted by Annika Cicada at 7:46 PM on June 24, 2016


    People light the country on fire and there's plenty of sympathy to go round for the arsonists getting their fingers burnt, but everyone seems to forget the people being used as kindling for the fire. From my vantage point, tied to a flaming pole, I say fuck them. There can be a time for reconciliation. That time is after the frothing nationalism and xenophobia have died back, after people have realised they've fucked up, once they're ready to fucking apologise. That time is not now.
    posted by Dysk at 7:49 PM on June 24, 2016 [43 favorites]


    hm. I thought the classic mistake was to never go against a Sicilian when death is on the line.
    posted by Annika Cicada at 7:51 PM on June 24, 2016


    Point well received Dysk.
    posted by Annika Cicada at 7:52 PM on June 24, 2016


    (And dysk my humor with respect to the princess bride comment is not directed at your response that comment, but rather the original comment you're referring to)
    posted by Annika Cicada at 7:54 PM on June 24, 2016


    Watching this unfold from Hong Kong has been devastating. As a dual US-Dutch citizen who lives in Hong Kong and has British in-laws, I'm probably part of the post-national problem in the eyes of the Leave voters.

    I know several people who voted Leave, and they break into two camps:

    1.
    Don't understand the consequences. Have been solidly lied to by parties and press, and don't really understand how the countries in the EU are connected financially. They're voting metric vs. imperial measurements, against immigrant hordes taking their jobs, and to keep the empire strong. I feel so worried and sad for these people since they have been lied to contiually and I don't know, I really don't know how you can communicate complexity when you are being drowned out by liars like Farage who claim that the answer is really very simple.

    2.
    Accelerationists on the left. I really hate these people today-- the ones who voted Leave because they understand the consequences and want to see the center fall anyhow. I really really really am angry at this point of view. They claim to be on the side of the people, but rather than argue their case for the left they ride on the liars and fascists preying on the first group of voters. If your truth is the truth, then don't rely on fascists to reach your goals.

    I am so frightened for NL at the moment. So many voices calling for their own referendum, and so many of the same issues at stake.
    posted by frumiousb at 7:56 PM on June 24, 2016 [40 favorites]


    I don't understand the point of a second referendum. Britain- both its government and now its people-doesn't really believe in the European Project. Now that the actual economic pain of leaving, and the reality of their own precarity outside the confines of an institution they've never treated with anything but contempt, has started to dawn on them, it's suddenly high time for a do-over. Why? So that the rest of Europe can listen to their wheedling and demands for more special treatment? It's time for a clean break. European Unity will either stand or collapse, but at least those in the EU will actually be in it.
    posted by Chrischris at 7:59 PM on June 24, 2016 [3 favorites]


    I'm actually struggling to see an example where accelerationism actually worked out for the left on anything. Even in the number of cases where a collapse of the center actually resulted in Leftists gaining power it seems like most of those tended to also have huge numbers of people negatively impacted by the economic and political uncertainty before the left managed to gain control and return the situation to some degree of stability.

    All to often economic unrest just result in racist nationalists coming to power because it's always much easier to blame the outsider amongst us than actually work to fix the problems though compromise.
    posted by vuron at 8:04 PM on June 24, 2016 [10 favorites]


    A second referendum actually does make sense to me. Certainly, the whole world would feel fremdschämen or something for England if they voted in after suddenly realizing the consequences of voting out after they had already voted out.1 However, though the embarrassment (and loss of standing) that would come with that would suck, it'd suck less than either actually leaving or having parliament block leaving without an additional referendum.

    1: what are they a nation of cats
    posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 8:06 PM on June 24, 2016 [24 favorites]


    However, though the embarrassment (and loss of standing) that would come with that would suck, it'd suck less than either actually leaving or having parliament block leaving without an additional referendum.

    I wouldn't be quite so certain that a second referendum wouldn't return the same result.
    posted by Dysk at 8:15 PM on June 24, 2016 [3 favorites]


    Even if there's a take backsies 2nd referendum, all the new concessions Cameron negotiated are out the window right? At this point the EU leadership has no reason to give any ground, the UK would have to go back to the status quo circa 2014-15, and suffer the loss of face of turning tail back to the EU after all. That doesn't seem tenable from the current government's perspective, especially since they can't assure that the outcome will be different.

    The EU seems pretty intent on starting divorce proceedings not in October but, like, tomorrow, and once that bell is rung, is there even any mechanism to stop the procss and hold a second vote and make sure that this is really, really, what the UK people want? Once Article 50 is invoked, that sort of seems like the point of no return even if the whole country had a change of heart en mass.
    posted by T.D. Strange at 8:20 PM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


    The EU seems pretty intent on starting divorce proceedings not in October but, like, tomorrow

    Sure, doesn't mean they'll get it; Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon is quite clear, it requires notification by the leaving country. So they can demand things start now, but absent a formal Article 50 notification, nothing happens. (The EU is in no position to demand things start now, anyway, as Article 50 ALSO says "subject to the member state's constitutional procedures"; a non-binding referendum without parliamentary ratification most likely doesn't meet the test of "constitutionality" for the UK).
    posted by Pseudonymous Cognomen at 8:34 PM on June 24, 2016 [8 favorites]


    > I wouldn't be quite so certain that a second referendum wouldn't return the same result.
    posted by Dysk at 8:15 PM on June 24 [+] [!]


    well, in that case we'd at least know that England is awful full stop, rather than just disaffectedly ironically awful when they think it doesn't matter.
    posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 8:36 PM on June 24, 2016 [6 favorites]


    Can London vote to secede from the rest of Britain?
    Well, the Banks and other Big Businesses in London can always move somewhere else. I think the 52% of the UK voters have decided to no longer be "world business friendly" and that's why they haven't damaged the World Economy, just killed their own.
    posted by oneswellfoop at 8:38 PM on June 24, 2016 [4 favorites]


    What does this mean for the asylum seekers coming in to UK via Europe?
    posted by asra at 8:47 PM on June 24, 2016




    David Frum: Why Britain Left - "Is it possible that leaders and elites had it all wrong?"

    THANKS DAVID!
    posted by the man of twists and turns at 9:05 PM on June 24, 2016


      If there's one saving grace it's that the UK has control over their own currency.

    GBP/USD was around 1.50 when the polls closed. Seven hours later it was at 1.32. That's a crash.

    Years ago, I worked for a Forex startup (they'd been on the front cover of Wired in the boom years). Though I found most of the work odious, one of the founders did explain that democratizing foreign exchange trading allowed people to see when their governments had made stupid decisions.

    Yesterday was a stupid decision. It is a foretaste of Fascism. This is a President Trump-level disaster.
    posted by scruss at 9:09 PM on June 24, 2016 [11 favorites]


    David Frum: It actually was the immigrant's fault. And also immigrants in America so Hilary = Merkel.
    posted by T.D. Strange at 9:13 PM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    It's amazing how the people most willing to burn the place down seem to think themselves inflammable. Just because you started the riot doesn't mean you're going to come out ahead when it's all said and done. And a lot of people you know are going to get fucked in the process.
    posted by downtohisturtles at 9:14 PM on June 24, 2016 [9 favorites]


    Surely one just could build a wall along the Northern Ireland - Republic of Ireland border.

    And make the Republic pay for it.
    posted by Rumple at 9:16 PM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


    Surely one just could build a wall along the Northern Ireland - Republic of Ireland border.

    And make the Republic pay for it.


    You joke, but some (bigots) in Northern Ireland refer to inhabitants of the Republic as "Mexicans."
    posted by dhens at 9:20 PM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


    A very powerful Facebook post that I came across when a Belgian friend of mine, whose husband is British, shared it. (Gee, won't their lives be SO MUCH BETTER after Brexit!!!)

    INDEPENDENCE DAY ROUNDUP

    Our first day of independence has gone just swimmingly:

    1. Nigel Farage went on the tele and retracted the (false) claim that we send £350 million per week to the EU that would now be re-directed to the NHS and said Vote Leave should never have made that commitment to voters in the first place. Yesterday, this commitment was on the side of Vote Leave busses across the country. Exit polling indicates additional funding for the NHS was cited as a reason for leaving by nearly 80% of leave voters.
    2. Daniel Hannan MEP retracted the (false) claim that leaving the EU will lead to drastically reduced immigration into Britain. Exit polling indicates this was the second most cited reason voters gave for leaving the EU. Would have been nice if Vote Leave had bothered to be honest with voters about both of these matters before today.
    3. S&P, the only rating agency still giving the UK a AAA credit rating, confirms it has placed that rating under review for downgrade. It appears a downgrade is much more likely than not. Borrowing costs to fund Britain’s large deficit are set to increase markedly.
    4. Sterling collapsed to its lowest level against the USD in three decades, the biggest single day drop in the history of the currency. It is the third biggest single day drop in any currency ever. It is currently $1.36, down an incredible 13 cents against the dollar in less than 24 hours from a high of $1.49 yesterday.
    5. Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s first minister, has said a second independence referendum is “highly likely”. Scots will likely vote on dismembering the United Kingdom in the next few years, which will fuel uncertainty and economic turmoil.
    6. Sinn Fein and various others in Northern Ireland call for a border poll on reunification.
    7. Spain calls for co-sovereignty over Gibraltar.
    8. More than £1.5 trillion in wealth was wiped out across global markets in just a few hours this morning, the single greatest wealth destroying event in stock market history. That's 187 years’ worth of British contributions to the EU. Seems worth it to get that money back from Brussels though.
    9. The FTSE 100 (largely multinationals) fell more than 8% and the FTSE 250 (which reflects mostly British firms rather than multinationals) fell more than 12%. Both steadied after Mark Carney declared that the Bank of England would not hesitate to intervene to instil stability, the same sort of intervention that Mario Draghi had to make to save the Euro during the Greek crisis and that the G7 had to make to save the global economy after the collapse of Lehman. Brexit is an event that ranks alongside those crises in terms of effects on global markets.
    10. Ultimately, the FTSE 100 finished down 3% and the FTSE 250 down 7%. Hundreds of billions of pounds has been wiped off people’s ISAs and pension funds. Banks in particular have been hammered.
    11. David Cameron resigned without mapping out any plan for implementing the results of the referendum. Boris Johnson is odds on favourite to be our next Prime Minister. In October.
    12. Labour MPs have moved for a vote of no confidence in Jeremy Corbyn which will be considered by the party on Monday.
    13. The presidents of the European Council, Commission and Parliament told us to invoke Article 50 and leave as soon as possible and the settlement negotiated by David Cameron earlier this year is now void.
    14. Nigel Farage, who earlier claimed that independence was achieved "without a single bullet being fired", just called for UK gun laws to be relaxed, one week after Jo Cox was murdered on the street in broad daylight. With a gun.
    15. Numerous reports of immigrants, and native Britons who happen to be brown, being told to “go back home” in the street and on the Tube, the vote to leave apparently having been taken by some as an indication that most of the country now thinks this sort of thing is acceptable, rather than profoundly un-British and utterly awful.

    Freedom ain't free.


    I bet all those Lexiters are super happy that they stuffed it to those mean ol' bankers and technocrats in Brussels.
    posted by dhens at 9:24 PM on June 24, 2016 [107 favorites]


    A second referendum might be kind of cowardly, but if it manages to prevent this cluster from actually fucking I think it would still be a good thing, even if hypocritical.
    posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 9:24 PM on June 24, 2016 [5 favorites]


    THANK YOU BRITONS!
    
    BUT OUR BREXIT IS IN ANOTHER REFERENDUM!
    
    posted by tonycpsu at 9:30 PM on June 24, 2016 [12 favorites]


    The cluster has already fucked, Ray
    posted by Annika Cicada at 9:31 PM on June 24, 2016 [7 favorites]


    A second referendum might be kind of cowardly, but if it manages to prevent this cluster from actually fucking I think it would still be a good thing, even if hypocritical.

    A friend of mine of Facebook kept trying to think of ways that Brexit could actually be avoided, because he couldn't fathom the awful consequences of it. He also tried to argue that the rest of the EU would want to avoid it too. I replied that Brexit hurts the UK far more than the EU. In fact, many in the rest of Europe want it to happen quick. I can't say I blame them -- the UK already had all the benefits of membership, plus a bunch of added exceptions to make the deal sweeter, got potentially more exceptions in Feb, and still chose to take its ball and go home. EU Parliament president Martin Schulz got (correctly) straight to the point when he said that he didn't want the "continent taken hostage because of Tory party fight."
    posted by dhens at 9:32 PM on June 24, 2016 [3 favorites]


    14. Nigel Farage, who earlier claimed that independence was achieved "without a single bullet being fired", just called for UK gun laws to be relaxed, one week after Jo Cox was murdered on the street in broad daylight. With a gun.

    I don't think this is actually true. I saw the story being posted around Facebook, but the dateline was in 2014.
    posted by BungaDunga at 9:36 PM on June 24, 2016 [3 favorites]


    I wonder what other wrangling and negotiating will happen between now and article 50 being invoked. I'm sure if "the letter of intent to invoke" has been delivered clearly enough to the EU then that is enough to get both sides at the table to start listening out who get what in the pending divorce. No reason to wait 3 months to start discussing the framework if you know it's coming right? I'm just assuming though.
    posted by Annika Cicada at 9:42 PM on June 24, 2016


    If the UK starts wobbling on its desire to leave, the rest of the EU could conceivably invoke article 7 and suspend them. It's not what article 7 is meant to be used for but I honestly don't think the rest of the EU is feeling very charitable right now.
    posted by BungaDunga at 9:42 PM on June 24, 2016 [5 favorites]


    Closing the NI border is unthinkable, but so is border checks between NI and the rest of the UK. I can't help but think it's going to be awfully destabilizing. Sinn Fein is already calling for a referendum on an open border with Ireland.

    Do you honestly think that this isn't a desirable outcome for the Brexit backers? They were perfectly willing to see a defenseless MP get brutally murdered- a low-grade military conflict in the north can be seen as an excellent way to militarizing the society.
    posted by happyroach at 9:49 PM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


    >: No reason to wait 3 months to start discussing the framework if you know it's coming right? I'm just assuming though.

    If you're a now-outgoing British PM facing down a Parliament that is 3:1 for Remain and you have no desire to throw a Constitutional crisis on top of a Financial and International one, then there is a rather big reason to wait. (What happens if Parliament refuses to vote to repeal the European Communities Act? Will Britain wind up being out of the EU but having internal law that still requires it?)
    posted by fireoyster at 9:51 PM on June 24, 2016 [2 favorites]


    4. Sterling collapsed to its lowest level against the USD in three decades, the biggest single day drop in the history of the currency. It is the third biggest single day drop in any currency ever. It is currently $1.36, down an incredible 13 cents against the dollar in less than 24 hours from a high of $1.49 yesterday.
    ...
    8. More than £1.5 trillion in wealth was wiped out across global markets in just a few hours this morning, the single greatest wealth destroying event in stock market history. That's 187 years’ worth of British contributions to the EU. Seems worth it to get that money back from Brussels though.


    These are dramatic figures, but don't they really just tell us that the result came as a surprise to the financial world and that there is a lot of uncertainty about what comes next? I mean, it looks to me like the 13-cent drop is partly because markets were bidding up the value of the pound in expectation of a Remain outcome; it's more like a 7-cent drop compared to where things were last Friday -- still substantial, but much smaller. Obviously the uncertainty is a big deal, and there are going to be significant economic consequences, but do a single day's market numbers really mean much?
    posted by Gerald Bostock at 10:05 PM on June 24, 2016 [7 favorites]


    Obviously the uncertainty is a big deal, and there are going to be significant economic consequences, but do a single day's market numbers really mean much?

    Obviously not. It's weak neoliberal reasoning that attracts that sort of easy scapegoating, that because Lexiters--the disempowered and disenfranchised--were involved in disrupting the status quo using the only leverage they have, the attribution of harm/responsibility falls to them. The EU management is portrayed as completely innocent in creating this socioeconomic climate. Actual international political history is ignored, as I've [and others have] already mentioned.

    In other political circles we call this ressentiment.
    posted by polymodus at 10:21 PM on June 24, 2016 [7 favorites]


    14. Nigel Farage, who earlier claimed that independence was achieved "without a single bullet being fired", just called for UK gun laws to be relaxed, one week after Jo Cox was murdered on the street in broad daylight. With a gun.

    I don't think this is actually true. I saw the story being posted around Facebook, but the dateline was in 2014.
    posted by BungaDunga at 9:36 PM on June 24 [+] [!]


    Have you tried googling "Nigel Farage"+"without a single bullet being fired"? I guess the headlines could all be wrong, but I get the feeling they're not.
    posted by a box and a stick and a string and a bear at 10:36 PM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    It's the story about him calling for gun laws to be relaxed that's from 2014.
    posted by L.P. Hatecraft at 10:41 PM on June 24, 2016 [4 favorites]


    disrupting the status quo using the only leverage they have

    Again, this argument elides the lies they were told by the fascist right and seemingly ignores its presence. Do you think they wanted to disrupt the status quo or that they wanted to hold back change? There's a discussion to be had about how those points of view differ, but I would argue they are fundamentally different. I am not at all sure the vote is a reflection of a revolt against the Brussels elite as much as it is a resentment against the fading of a world which has been given a fake half-life in media and nostalgia. You're using some pretty impressive terms and definitions, but you're begging some pretty important questions at the same time.
    posted by frumiousb at 10:44 PM on June 24, 2016 [12 favorites]


    Obviously not. It's weak neoliberal reasoning that attracts that sort of easy scapegoating, that because Lexiters--the disempowered and disenfranchised--were involved in perturbing the status quo using the only leverage they have, the attribution of harm/responsibility falls to them. The EU management is portrayed as completely innocent in creating this socioeconomic climate. Actual international political history is ignored, as I've [and others have] already mentioned.

    Most people don't want to discuss international political history when they want to know why stuff is suddenly more expensive and their retirement accounts are worth less (and that includes, say, a saver in Japan who doesn't give a crap about the UK (the Nikkei had the biggest drop its seen in decades). Oil is priced in dollars; the UK imports 50% of its food from countries that don't use the pound. When the pound falls, that stuff costs more pounds to buy. That stuff matters to Nigel Farage's "real people."

    And yes, the markets did recover somewhat, partially because they were perhaps, er, irrationally inexuberant at first, and in large part due to Cameron's promise to block the door for the next few months and the BoE's promise to backstop the markets with massive cash injections. But the pound still trades at its lowest level against the dollar in decades. And the point in dhens's post is important: the biggest FTSE 100 companies closed down just a few percent because they're big international companies most of which aren't tied incredibly closely to the UK. But smaller UK companies, like those who build houses or sell building materials, were far harder hit. At the end of the day, that comes back to hurt plenty of "real people" too.

    Just because disempowered people pulled the first lever they came across doesn't suddenly turn them into automatic heroic revolutionaries. They (and everyone sharing a country with them) have to take the consequences of their decisions. So yes, the attribution of responsibility does go to the people who voted Leave. The people who pulled the level are generally considered responsible when the fire alarm goes off.
    posted by zachlipton at 10:48 PM on June 24, 2016 [23 favorites]


    A second referendum might be kind of cowardly, but if it manages to prevent this cluster from actually fucking I think it would still be a good thing, even if hypocritical.

    Wasn't the entire reason David Cameron called this referendum in the first place was because of pressure from the Euroskeptic rump within his party (that dates back decades and decades), and because of pressure from UKIP?

    Holding another referendum doesn't guarantee people will vote "Remain." Putting off the Brexit is also going to be impossible because of the pressure the Euroskeptic rump puts on any Conservative prime minister.

    There's no turning back.
    posted by My Dad at 11:32 PM on June 24, 2016 [1 favorite]


    I find accelerationists and Lexiters exasperating, but I also have difficulty imagining that there are enough of them in this country to have had any real effect on the referendum. Did more than 1.3 million left accelerationists cast a leave vote on the 23rd? I doubt it.
    posted by Sonny Jim at 11:48 PM on June 24, 2016 [6 favorites]


    This whole thing vaguely reminds me of people here in India burning buses during riots. No matter the actual grievance, buses are going to get burnt. Angry people are going to choose the most convenient target rather than the most effective one, even if it's ultimately pointless or even self-defeating.
    posted by vanar sena at 11:50 PM on June 24, 2016 [11 favorites]


    A second referendum might be kind of cowardly, but if it manages to prevent this cluster from actually fucking I think it would still be a good thing, even if hypocritical.
    Rank hypocrisy and a collective desire to act as if nothing happened.
    I'm fairly certain Britain could manage that.

    Brex what? Sorry I think you must be mistaken.
    posted by fullerine at 11:57 PM on June 24, 2016 [15 favorites]


    not to make this about me, but to make this about me
    i'm realizing that this will be bad for Louisiana, because

    1) forestry agreements we had with DRAX UK biomass not to cut down hardwood forests were dependent on EU sustainability agreements

    2) same EU sustainability agreements cut UK consumption of coal, and the US really really wants to sell the UK coal. US coal is transported through louisiana and virginia, and is giving local residents asthma.

    3) oh yeah, climate agreements. good bye, y'all. come visit new orleans soon if you'd like to see it.


    in Georgia, while i was living there, a plebiscite on marriage that went against gay people was overturned because the language was obscure--the vote was thrown out on procedural grounds. i wonder if there's any chance this could be challenged by a judicial proceeding?

    you know, since it seems like a lot of people were really voting for the NHS, rather than against their pensions?
    posted by eustatic at 12:24 AM on June 25, 2016 [4 favorites]


    Guardian: 75% of people aged 18-24 voted to Remain. We are collecting their stories here.
    posted by PenDevil at 12:27 AM on June 25, 2016 [5 favorites]


    Fuck it. Stupid is stupid and bigots are bigots and no I won't build a bridge to them.

    Here's the thing: they outnumber you.
    posted by flabdablet at 12:46 AM on June 25, 2016 [1 favorite]


    ...they outnumber you.

    Yeah, but only for the next 10-15 years, demographics being what they are.
    posted by longbaugh at 12:53 AM on June 25, 2016 [1 favorite]


    B-b-b-b-b-but accountability and neoliberalism and stuff!

    Mm, why would any ordinary people care about that fancy politics stuff? All they care about is the stock market.

    Let's have a conversation about the middle east in which the only important factor is the price of oil.
    posted by Coda Tronca at 1:28 AM on June 25, 2016 [1 favorite]


    Here's the thing: they outnumber you.
    Actually it's the combination of bigot voters and apathetic non-voters that really outnumber you. It's probably a lot easier and productive to reach out to the non-voters. From my experience... well, I had a deeply bigoted father who I could never really reach, although a couple times when he was getting older, I got him to change a vote by misleading him about who was the 'whiter' candidate. Deception can be a virtue.
    posted by oneswellfoop at 1:36 AM on June 25, 2016 [5 favorites]


    Seen this morning on Facebook

    "If you don't like the fact that England chose to Leave Europe, why don't you just fuck off and go and live there?"
    posted by longbaugh at 1:47 AM on June 25, 2016 [1 favorite]


    Wow, this thread is probably one of the most interesting in years, although sadly its topic is extremely depressing.

    Reading it will take some time, so I'll leave some notes for future reference.

    When Golden Dawn first appeared in Greece, I felt a shiver down my spine, because clearly, having an openly neonazist party in any european parliament - or any parliament, that is - is so clearly absurd, so obviously impossible, I had to pinch myself because I tought I was having a nightmare. Yet, reality is worse then the worse nightmares, if it allows the single worse disaster ever to struck Europe and the world to come up...in a parliament!

    I also remember watching - before Golden Dawn, if my memory servers - a video by the extremely despicable Borghezio, one of the vilest "politician" to disgrace the face of the planet since the nazi times, openly advising some right wing group in France to disguise themselves in a manner that would not "trigger" the usual "fascist" alarm bells.

    Of course, opportunist will take advantage of any tactique to gather even the smallest crumb of "power" and the cover-up was made available by the absolute lack of a strong response to the 2008 still ongoing crisis. Shifting power from those unwilling to use it to amend some damages to those who simply _claim_ the will use it to amend something is a no brainer and indeed I am beginning to think half of Britain did exactly that: they delivered power to the "next best thing"...altough the next best thing is actually even more despicable then the "worse present thing", namely the present administrations.

    Now how to con half a country? Conservative UK was never in favour of Europe, if my memory serves, but actually I do not have enough information of the modern political history of Britain to assess how deeply the anti-european sentiments is rooted in the UK. Yet, I remember watching a video/or hearing something from Varoufakis (ex finance minister of UK) in which Margaret Thatcher noted, the day she resigned, criticized the idea of relinquishing central bank powers to an external bureaucracy. That is probably the real meat - or a significant portion of it - behind UK's euroskepticism as promoted by conservatives.

    But central banks are so technical an aspect - altough a critical one - you cannot just sell that as a sovereignity argument, unless of course you start beating it during the middle of a fiancial crisis, arguning that central banks are printing money to save banks, as opposed to saving people, which happens - at least apparently - to be exactly the case.

    Now of course, a black hole argument, in which anything could be stated as true or false without fear of being caught bullshiting by the common people, is one that every cinical politician loves. But central banks are too complex, immigration is much more relateable and, more importantly, immigration is not going to impact (not immediately) the younger, more intellectually advanced, pan-european young graduates which are still backed by mom and dad and that can still hope in a better future while working some service job.

    Except that is not the case if you are young, undereducated and hungry for any decent opportunity to make _enough_ to become financially indipendent - yet, not even college graduates can afford that, let alone young people in the less paid everday services sector.

    Now I mention that also because it appears some of the UK media is already drumming that the old generation stiffed the young one: that might be the case (that young people voted in favour of EU), but it can quickly turn into an intergenerational blame game, a vicious and horrible "game" designed to _divide_ ordinary people, who are already too willing to blame the other 50% for the negative consequence that might occour.

    The next step to defuse an even deeper extremization and return to 1930 stile factions would probably require making the EU actually help people fell a lot less economically and financially insecure. Whatever the cost, as the alternative is probably going to be much worse ...Brexit possibily being the beginning of that "much worse".
    posted by elpapacito at 1:50 AM on June 25, 2016 [6 favorites]


    Radio 4 has been amazing this morning. My jaw has been dropping every 10 minutes.

    First Cash reading this triumphant poem about natural disasters like fire and ice and the "multitudes."

    Then, Andrew Gimson who supports Boris Johnson as PM, defending Boris Johnson's lies by saying that he is a good liar and "people want to be lied to"

    They are emboldened now and they are all coming out.
    posted by vacapinta at 1:55 AM on June 25, 2016 [11 favorites]


    For your consideration: one more prescient track.
    posted by gimonca at 1:57 AM on June 25, 2016


    @kerihw: you act as if you've never painted a massive lie on a bus
    posted by howfar at 2:05 AM on June 25, 2016 [2 favorites]


    Can we at least fuck off the "this website uses cookies" popups?

    I'm going to bet that we will almost certainly going to continue to be subject to them, without our government ever being able to do anything to stop them. Which is going to make them even more infuriating.
    posted by howfar at 2:11 AM on June 25, 2016 [3 favorites]


    I'd start to worry if I accessed a website that DOESN'T use cookies... either 1996 design or they found something new that's much more evil.
    posted by oneswellfoop at 2:18 AM on June 25, 2016 [2 favorites]


    Now that I've had the chance for this news to sink in and to absorb some more content, I find that I'm most angered by the cynical voters who X'ed for Brexit because lol. It's one thing to have a firm belief, even if it's based on disingenuous agitprop plastered on buses, but still vote your conscience. It's something else entirely to sort of blink dazedly the next day and go, "Huh, I thought my vote wouldn't count because cynicism, so I just had some fun with it. Let me search the googles now to see what I did." Playing games with people's lives for your own personal amusement is borderline sociopathic. People have suffered and died in great numbers to create, protect, and maintain these democracies and shitting on that legacy for the lols is beyond the pale. I'd rather people like this just stay home and let the grownups do the citizenry's business. And I worry that this effect will bleed into my own country's upcoming election cycle. I suppose that even though I live in a firmly blue state in a firmly red district, I will have to make damned sure to vote my ass off in November to lessen the effect of such asshattery.

    One thing I am curious about. It's become the latest thing for various American news networks to fact check claims made during campaigns. I doubt many people pay much attention to it and I'm borderline certain that "facts" are meaningless in the face of sincere belief when it comes to politics and religion. But was there much of an effort in the UK media to debunk the money to EU becomes money to NHS claim made by Brexiters?
    posted by xyzzy at 2:40 AM on June 25, 2016 [20 favorites]


    Winterhill, maybe you're not grasping at straws. The petition for a new referendum just hit 1,000,000 signatures, and it's still growing.
    posted by suburbanbeatnik at 2:45 AM on June 25, 2016 [4 favorites]


    xyzzy - there were several fact checking websites available throughout but the vast majority of voters will almost certainly made their minds up instantaneously and then sought out information to confirm their pre-existing bias. Those that didn't seek an immediate echo chamber of like-minded thinking probably did no research whatsoever and simply voted with their gut.

    Awesome people like me* that did lots of research on both sides POV managed to convince a few folks to change sides through engagement but essentially the battle lines appeared to be drawn from the get go and there was little fair and reasonable discussion. The level of discourse on MeFi is several hundred levels better than it is IRL but there was clearly disagreement between Remain and Leave here and I don't recall a single mind being changed.

    *I'm not being entirely serious here incidentally
    posted by longbaugh at 2:52 AM on June 25, 2016 [1 favorite]


    Do you honestly think that this isn't a desirable outcome for the Brexit backers? They were perfectly willing to see a defenseless MP get brutally murdered- a low-grade military conflict in the north can be seen as an excellent way to militarizing the society.

    This terrifies me. I live in a very Loyalist area, grew up Unionist and have family members who honestly believe Hitler had good ideas (seriously, family get togethers can be hard work). There is a sizeable minority in Northern Ireland that would be more than happy for the Army to be back on the streets. The flag protests were certainly an attempt to take us back to the dark old days.

    Also remember the only Party to back exit was the Democratic Unionist Party (That is, democracy only if you believe in the Union). They are a sinister bunch of so called Christians who have always opposed the agreement 80% of the population backed. They oppose Gay rights, the building of Mosques, Womens rights, integration. They wanted information in Museums to suggest there is debate over the age of the Earth (as in 5,000 years old debate). They are supported by half of the country.

    These are not good times to be a liberal socialist anywhere in the world. We've watched as the world around us has become less caring.

    I no longer consider myself British at all and if there is ever a Border Poll I think the results will be very tight indeed. The consequences either way will not be good.

    The best hope we have is to come to some sort of agreement that understands the people of Northern Ireland are very much a special case. If there are to be border controls they need to be from the Island to the UK, not between areas of Ireland. Losing that border was huge. We can't reimplement it.
    posted by twistedonion at 2:56 AM on June 25, 2016 [24 favorites]


    Britain on Monday.
    posted by condour75 at 3:05 AM on June 25, 2016 [5 favorites]


    Fuck it. Stupid is stupid and bigots are bigots and no I won't build a bridge to them.

    Here's the thing: they outnumber you.

    Yeah, but only for the next 10-15 years, demographics being what they are.


    While I certainly don't agree with the line of reasoning that we somehow have a duty to handhold the bigots, the "it's ok, the bigots are dying!" line drives me fucking crazy. That is really really really really really really really really really really really really really really really really NOT how bigotry works. It's a comforting lie made up by younger generations of white people to exonerate themselves from the hard work of building a better world.
    posted by duffell at 3:08 AM on June 25, 2016 [57 favorites]


    Yes - remember, these old bigots were hippies and punks.
    posted by Grangousier at 3:19 AM on June 25, 2016 [19 favorites]


    Also remember the only Party to back exit was the Democratic Unionist Party

    What really got me was seeing that the "Strong Vote for Remain" in West Belfast was with a turnout of only 48.8%. Seriously, less than 50% in what is a Republican stronghold, way less than in May's Assembly election where it was 57.8%. It makes me wonder whether Sinn Féin were secretly hoping for this result, where they can say "You're the ones who voted to ditch the Good Friday Agreement! Now let's have another referendum on a United Ireland!"
    posted by Azara at 3:24 AM on June 25, 2016 [1 favorite]


    But what, in reality, would be the effect of Britain (or England/Wales) transitioning from the EU to the EEA on the ground? Our companies would still be able to trade freely with the rEU, we'd still be able to employ EU nationals and live and work there visa-free, there'd still be no trade tariffs. It doesn't seem to me like the kind of scenario that requires the sky-is-falling stuff that is happening now - the massive devaluation of GBP, the worldwide stock market crashes, and so on.

    As an EU citizen living in the UK, the limits on what benefits are available to me as it's are pretty extreme. Were the UK to transition to merely EEA membership, I would lose that entirely (thus making me ineligible for any government assistance of any kind, anywhere in the world).
    posted by Dysk at 3:26 AM on June 25, 2016 [3 favorites]


    While I certainly don't agree with the line of reasoning that we somehow have a duty to handhold the bigots, the "it's ok, the bigots are dying!" line drives me fucking crazy.

    I should have been clear that I was being entirely tongue in cheek here. I don't believe that being racist is a generational thing. I'm sorry for muddying the water and making a joke where it wasn't appropriate to do so.
    posted by longbaugh at 3:35 AM on June 25, 2016 [3 favorites]


    So my mixed race mother in law, 70 years old, born and raised in Birmingham, has a fucking MBE for a long and distinguished career in the public sector, this morning had to deal with racist abuse from two celebrating Leave supporters in the café she frequents everything day.

    Hurrah for this new world of freedom.
    posted by brilliantmistake at 3:35 AM on June 25, 2016 [72 favorites]


    winterhill: That may be a likely result. Especially in that it respects the referendum (Leaving the EU) without sabotaging trade or movement unduly. So, in the end, the result may be something nobody really wanted.

    It doesn't matter. My wife and I are also making plans to move to Scotland. They sound like sensible people up there. I am not liking the mood in England right now.

    I am a dual US/UK citizen and my wife is EU so we are pretty lucky compared to many others. But if we are shocked and angry, I can only imagine how many others must feel right now.
    posted by vacapinta at 3:39 AM on June 25, 2016 [2 favorites]


    But since the most likely outcome of this whole clusterfuck is EEA membership for the rUK, are we really going to suddenly see recession and mass unemployment in a month or two once the shock wears off?

    Except the EU Commission have made it very clear that we will have to be punished.

    I mean, I don't like them any more than Nigel Farage - at some point they have to be challenged or they'll bring the continent down - but Brexit isn't the way to do it, it would need to be a coalition of EU states. It's like dealing with a bully by sticking your own head down the shittiest toilet bowl and gesturing to the flush handle.

    So, at this point, we have to assume that whatever the outcome is, it will be designed to be uncomfortable for us.
    posted by Grangousier at 3:41 AM on June 25, 2016 [4 favorites]


    in law, 70 years old, born and raised in Birmingham, has a fucking MBE for a long and distinguished career in the public sector, this morning had to deal with racist abuse from two celebrating Leave supporters in the café she frequents everything day.


    I'm always wary of anecdotal evidence but the mood has changed... I'm used to dirty looks being given to foreigners on the bus into work but yesterday both on the way to work and home I heard quite audible discussions about foreigners and one old woman complained loudly to herself about two Asians having a conversation in their own language.

    I've been saying this all along. The argument was framed wrong. There are plenty of reasons to leave the eu but we have legitimized Farage and all that goes with it.
    posted by twistedonion at 3:44 AM on June 25, 2016 [23 favorites]


    It's like dealing with a bully by sticking your own head down the shittiest toilet bowl and gesturing to the flush handle.

    It's even worse because the EU doesn't have to actively do anything. It's like sticking your head in an auto-flush toilet and expecting the bully to pull you out before it goes off.
    posted by Pyry at 3:45 AM on June 25, 2016 [1 favorite]


    I should have been clear that I was being entirely tongue in cheek here. I don't believe that being racist is a generational thing. I'm sorry for muddying the water and making a joke where it wasn't appropriate to do so.

    Oh, no worries. Anyhow, I assumed your comment as a remark on the age breakdown of this particular vote's results, which is completely fair; I've just seen enough toxic bigotry from younger people that I feel compelled to make that point whenever discussion veers toward "the bigots are dying."
    posted by duffell at 3:46 AM on June 25, 2016 [6 favorites]


    It makes me wonder whether Sinn Féin were secretly hoping for this result,

    Of course they were, same as the SNP. Political parties only have their own interests at heart. I despise the Republicans as much as the Loyalists. They all have too much blood on their hands.
    posted by twistedonion at 3:48 AM on June 25, 2016 [4 favorites]


    Except the EU Commission have made it very clear that we will have to be punished.

    I hope, think, and pray that this will take the form of losing many of the UK-specific concessions, like not being in schengen, or the ability to except EU nationals from equal access to benefits, or the continuation of EU payments without the rebate, etc.
    posted by Dysk at 3:48 AM on June 25, 2016 [12 favorites]


    I appreciate that duffell but yeah - it wasn't helpful and I feel a bit of a dick for laughing about it. These are our parents and grandparents and it was incumbent upon us to say 'You're not doing me or my kids a favour by voting out'. I convinced my mum to switch from Leave to Remain but my mother and father in law still think they've done this with our best interests at heart. Sunday lunch tomorrow is going to be epically awkward.
    posted by longbaugh at 3:50 AM on June 25, 2016 [4 favorites]


    Is this buyer's remorse, or what? Brexiter Liam Fox:
    Meanwhile, Liam Fox cast doubt on the necessity of triggering the article 50 clause of the Lisbon treaty that sets out the legal process for a country’s EU withdrawal.

    “A lot of things were said in advance of this referendum that we might want to think about again and that [invoking article 50] is one of them,” said the Conservative MP.

    “I think that it doesn’t make any sense to trigger article 50 without having a period of reflection first, for the cabinet to determine exactly what it is that we’re going to be seeking and in what timescale.
    Grauniad
    posted by Mister Bijou at 3:54 AM on June 25, 2016 [5 favorites]


    I didn't mention it before but after my comment above I explained what was going to happen and the bloke's face just fell. He realised he'd been sold a lie. That was my fault too. I've too often shrugged off the racist comments or just said 'Come on now, that's wrong' when I've heard them but I could have engaged better with them. Rotherham is hardly a bastion of Left wing thought - in fact there's a good chance it'll go UKIP next time out but I'm going to make an effort to engage and inform more people. They're good folk most of them, they just don't know what the stakes are (and yes, I'm aware of how terrible that sounds with the implication that they lack agency).
    posted by longbaugh at 3:58 AM on June 25, 2016 [5 favorites]


    Children of Men was an excellent film. For soundtrack selection, I reccommend Billy Bragg, Waiting for the Great Leap Forward.
    posted by Meatbomb at 3:59 AM on June 25, 2016 [2 favorites]




    It makes me wonder whether Sinn Féin were secretly hoping for this result,


    I sincerely doubt it. While they can now opportunistically call for a border poll on Unification (which our First Minister has already said will not happen so we're not going anywhere) they will seriously feel the loss of EU funding. The amount of Peace money which was given to NI post ceasefire was huge and in many cases found its way to "community groups" ie ex-paramilitary groups on both sides. In many ways it's what kept people quiet and under the radar - the loss of that is partly what worries me.

    I have genuine worries about much of what will take place over the short and long term and this is a serious thread. But please don't judge me to know that an actual thought which popped into my head as I fell asleep last night was BUT WHAT ABOUT EUROVISION
    posted by billiebee at 4:03 AM on June 25, 2016 [19 favorites]


    Regarding Eurovision, the BBC remains a member of the EBU, so that shouldn't change in any way. It's not like Israel or Australia are EU members, either.
    posted by Dysk at 4:06 AM on June 25, 2016 [5 favorites]


    yes but really there's no point in the UK even fielding an act next year it's null points all round for the foreseeable are you happy now BoJo?
    posted by billiebee at 4:10 AM on June 25, 2016 [13 favorites]


    Right, so…

    I'm late getting to this thread because after yesterday's results I had to go swim in a lake about 10 miles from humanity. It helped for a bit.

    So, since January 2016 I've been working at one of the universities in Birmingham (UK) as a lecturer. I'm a Canadian-born post-migrant child of Peruvian/Colombian ancestry, having completed my studies in the US (Chicago) while also living in Paris and Berlin at various points for my research. My years in the post-doc precariat were spent mostly in Berlin, followed by 1.5 years contract-teaching in the Netherlands before finally finding a 'permanent' gig in Brum.

    My research projects have always been European in scope, and my own travel and social/professional networks span most of the EU. I am brown-skinned but speak English with a Canadian accent, French with a Parisian accent, German with a messy accent, and Dutch with a Northern (Groningen) accent. I could be some kind of EU poster child / mascot, probably.

    As a scholar, I'm expected to win external (usually gov't) funding for my research; considering that so much of it is focused EU zones outside of the UK, my likelihood of getting funding in the future from UK research councils is going to drop like a rock. In the meanwhile, nobody knows if UK-based scholars will still have access to EU-based research schemes, which are by far the largest and most prestigious.

    The irony of all this is that I had *just* spent the last few months celebrating the stability of a permanent contract job after several years of post-doctoral precarity, and now that stability seems to be evaporating very quickly.

    And, of course, none of this even speaks to the spike in everyday racism that brown folks of all sorts will be experiencing in the coming days. I'm living and working in Birmingham—an intensely post-migrant and mixed city—but the West Midlands region itself voted most strongly for Leave in the referendum. That tension certainly isn't going anywhere.

    So, for like the third or fourth week in a row: everything is terrible + this is why we can't have nice things.
    posted by LMGM at 4:10 AM on June 25, 2016 [56 favorites]


    yes but really there's no point in the UK even fielding an act next year it's null points all round for the foreseeable are you happy now BoJo?

    The BBC selection comittee does a pretty damn good job of seeing to that regardless of politics. You're probably likely to do better than in the past now, with a few points from Russia.
    posted by Dysk at 4:16 AM on June 25, 2016 [3 favorites]


    Is this buyer's remorse, or what? Brexiter Liam Fox:

    Nevermind. The ins-and-outs of article 50 here (scroll down to The Negotiations)
    posted by Mister Bijou at 4:20 AM on June 25, 2016


    Yes - remember, these old bigots were hippies and punks

    Or pop fans, glam rockers, prog rockers, folk rockers, hard rockers, heavy metallers, soft rockers, pub rockers, reggae whatevers, classical music players...
    posted by Mister Bijou at 4:34 AM on June 25, 2016 [1 favorite]


    > Radio 4 has been amazing this morning. My jaw has been dropping every 10 minutes.

    First Cash reading this triumphant poem about natural disasters like fire and ice and the "multitudes."


    A poem by John Gower, an English poet writing in French. (Oh, the irony.) Bill Cash seems to have assumed that the poem is a celebration of ordinary decent people standing up for themselves. It's actually a warning that the multitudes will 'produce merciless destruction when they get the upper hand' and 'will not be stopped by reason'.
    posted by verstegan at 4:39 AM on June 25, 2016 [9 favorites]


    I think the smart money is starting to be put on nothing much happening at all for a couple of years.
    posted by Coda Tronca at 5:05 AM on June 25, 2016 [3 favorites]


    The leave campaign has appeared to row back on key pledges made during the EU referendum campaign less than 24 hours after the UK voted for Brexit, after it emerged immigration levels could remain unchanged.
    posted by (Arsenio) Hall and (Warren) Oates at 5:12 AM on June 25, 2016 [11 favorites]


    British migrants to Spain who love the quality of life and free healthcare now worried about their future, even though they would have voted to leave if they were in the UK because they don't like the immigration policy. #youcouldntmakeitup
    posted by billiebee at 5:25 AM on June 25, 2016 [15 favorites]




    Via Private Eye (Number Crunching):

    £15bn - Cuts in public spending George Osborne says would follow a Brexit vote and would be ‘a lose- lose situation for British families’

    £29bn - Cuts in public spending George Osborne has made since becoming chancellor, which are good for the economy and show we’re ‘living within our means’
    posted by marienbad at 5:33 AM on June 25, 2016 [4 favorites]


    Yes, Osborne's cuts were terrible, and further cuts will be more terrible still. They will, however, be inevitable following an exit from the EU and EEA especially, and they are effectively inevitable with that outcome. Osborne is a vicious hypocrit, happy to needlessly inflict pain and justify it as "necessary" and then point out that cuts are awful when it's politically expedient to. Still doesn't make putting ourselves in a position where government finances WILL suffer just to spite him.

    Even a stopped clock is right twice a day.
    posted by Dysk at 5:38 AM on June 25, 2016 [6 favorites]


    Cuts in public spending George Osborne

    Oh, "a lose-lose situation" against "living within our means"... those Bullingdon Club boys, such wags!
    posted by Mister Bijou at 5:42 AM on June 25, 2016


    It will be interesting to see the faces of the Brexiters when instead of Britons going to Greece and Spain for cheap vacations people start going to England for cheap vacations because they decided to implode the UK's economy in one day.

    I mean seriously what was the expected result of this from an economic perspective? A resurrection of the Empire? Instead of being an intrinsic part of the largest economic market in the world now the UK will be more or less adrift surrounded by massive economic powers that hardly need the UK. It's an awful negotiating position.

    Norway can get by with it to a degree because they have a shit ton of North Sea oil money and a very small population but I can't see how being in the Euro trade zone without being a member of the EU actually helps the UK. Was there actually belief that Brussels and Merkel and Hollande would back down when they have the much stronger negotiating position?
    posted by vuron at 5:49 AM on June 25, 2016 [2 favorites]


    It's not £15bn vs. £29bn. It's £15bn + £29bn. Which is worse?
    posted by longbaugh at 5:49 AM on June 25, 2016 [8 favorites]


    Obviously the uncertainty is a big deal, and there are going to be significant economic consequences, but do a single day's market numbers really mean much?

    Not a lot, but there are some interesting details in there. While Cameron's and Carney's actions avoided a bit of chaos, the big saver seems to have been the big actors that do most of their business outside the UK, where the market decided that the huge GBP drop balanced out other factors. Domestic actors fared less well, with anyone involved in housing dropping like a stone (20-30%). So the market is all set up for a UK recession.

    (Continental indexes took a harder beating, but the people raving about how the market didn't tank probably don't care about that, so let's ignore them for now.)
    posted by effbot at 5:54 AM on June 25, 2016 [3 favorites]


    I mean seriously what was the expected result of this from an economic perspective?

    House prices may fall.
    posted by Coda Tronca at 5:54 AM on June 25, 2016


    It doesn't seem to me like the kind of scenario that requires the sky-is-falling stuff that is happening now - the massive devaluation of GBP, the worldwide stock market crashes, and so on.

    The inability of Downing Street to negotiate special concessions to protect The City will be a crushing blow. The finance sector is a major driver of the British economy and it pretty much depends on avoiding serious regulation. It was item 1 on every Downing Street - EU meeting agenda for a reason.
    posted by srboisvert at 5:59 AM on June 25, 2016 [3 favorites]


    Yes housing prices might fall, especially if investors in London real estate who have been parking assets in the form of high priced homes in London decide that the safety and ROI on their investment is too low and they move that money into more liquid assets.

    Considering the top end is pretty much composed of cash buyers I wonder if a mass sell-off of housing stock will put a lot of people with mortgages in really bad shape as their home values plummet.
    posted by vuron at 6:01 AM on June 25, 2016


    It's not all doom and gloom - the Brexiters really struck a blow for the working class man on the street! Sorry, did I say working class man? I meant hedge fund tycoon. (Apologies for linking to the Daily Mail)
    posted by billiebee at 6:02 AM on June 25, 2016


    A resurrection of the Empire?

    Wasn't the referendum forced through by the 1922 committee? (Which is obviously named so since they're working on rolling everything back to the era when the Empire was as large as it would ever be, with a quarter of the world under UK rule, right? :-)
    posted by effbot at 6:02 AM on June 25, 2016


    I think the thinking goes that so long as the rest of the EU holds, there will be quite a few bad years in the UK but there probably won't be any sort of global recession. Businesses and industries that need be in the EU will move operations to France or elsewhere, and things will chug along. The American economy, strengthened against the pound, might actually see more investment, as it will be seen as safer. There's just a lot of uncertainty until we know how quickly the UK leaves, and how cleanly, and whether other countries start threatening to leave (but they'll probably wait to see how things go with Britain).
    posted by (Arsenio) Hall and (Warren) Oates at 6:09 AM on June 25, 2016 [4 favorites]


    It sounds like continental Europeans should start pushing their MEPs to increase financial regulations right about now. Why should Downing Street's views be taken seriously if they're leaving anyways? lol
    posted by jeffburdges at 6:09 AM on June 25, 2016 [2 favorites]




    Why should Downing Street's views be taken seriously if they're leaving anyways? lol

    The world's fifth biggest economy cannot be bullied and pushed around like Germany explicitly, mercilessly did to Greece, whether in or out.
    posted by Coda Tronca at 6:17 AM on June 25, 2016 [1 favorite]


    marienbad I'm a little confused by the intent of your post/comment -- is the thinking basically this: "an event happened; afterwards, very rich people lost a lot of money; therefore the event was good"?
    posted by (Arsenio) Hall and (Warren) Oates at 6:19 AM on June 25, 2016 [7 favorites]


    I'm thinking about dysk, the super rich will be fine.
    posted by Annika Cicada at 6:21 AM on June 25, 2016 [11 favorites]


    Yeah I guess I'm just confused, because lots of not-rich people lost a ton of wealth, as well. But I don't know, maybe I'm missing something.
    posted by (Arsenio) Hall and (Warren) Oates at 6:22 AM on June 25, 2016


    Coda Tronca: "The world's fifth biggest economy cannot be bullied and pushed around like Germany explicitly, mercilessly did to Greece, whether in or out."

    Sixth biggest economy as of yesterday.
    posted by octothorpe at 6:24 AM on June 25, 2016 [24 favorites]


    Whole lot of pension money tied up in those funds. I suspect a fair few old folk didn't think that through.
    posted by longbaugh at 6:25 AM on June 25, 2016 [1 favorite]




    In the meanwhile, nobody knows if UK-based scholars will still have access to EU-based research schemes, which are by far the largest and most prestigious.

    I'm currently a team leader in a H2020 project so I had a look. It turns out that non-EU countries can apply too, provided that they are in the right list (Switzerland got a nice chunk of the FP7 funding for instance), so theoretically UK universities (who got about 2 billion euros from FP7) could apply in the future, though this will be obviously more complicated and will require more red tape. I hope that my UK colleagues will be fine for the duration of the project I'm working on, but the Brexit is a major blow to UK R&D.

    On a different subject, some French politicians are demanding that the UK/France border in Calais (where the migrant camps are) be moved to Dover, so that British authorities would have to deal with thousands of UK-bound migrants arriving legally by train or boat on English shores.
    posted by elgilito at 6:28 AM on June 25, 2016 [3 favorites]


    Speaking of people who voted Leave and regretted it the next day...

    Jelani Cobb on Twitter: Eddie Murphy had a routine in the 80s about drunk white people voting for Jesse Jackson for kicks then sobering up saying "He f**king won??"

    Here it is on Youtube.
    posted by duffell at 6:38 AM on June 25, 2016 [1 favorite]


    If the world's richest people got fucked yesterday despite being insulated by wealth and privilege I imagine the impacts further down the food chain will be awful.

    I mean if you are worth several billion already losing a billion or so will hurt but due to decreasing marginal utility the actual impact on you in a material way is negligible unless you are highly leveraged.

    If you are middle class though and your pension just got fucked by racist Islamophobia then yeah that can result in a lot of damage
    posted by vuron at 6:43 AM on June 25, 2016 [13 favorites]


    effbot they were reporting that on the local news last night. One of the interesting turn of events is that part of the run on Irish passport applications has been from Unionist areas. People who previously wouldn't have got an Irish passport for love nor money, no surrender etc, now think that maybe it's not such a bad idea after all...
    posted by billiebee at 6:43 AM on June 25, 2016 [5 favorites]


    We also need to keep the difference between losing a billion on paper and losing an actual billion in mind: Both the pound and the various stock markets are bound to recover some of their losses, if you don't need to sell now you haven't lost anything.
    posted by Dr Dracator at 6:45 AM on June 25, 2016 [1 favorite]


    some French politicians are demanding that the UK/France border in Calais (where the migrant camps are) be moved to Dover

    Sadly, it looks like their dreams will not turn into reality.

    No change to Le Touquet accord, France says
    posted by Mister Bijou at 6:48 AM on June 25, 2016


    It's basically inevitable that a Britain outside of the EU becomes even more financialized and deregulated or it suffers a decline in living standards and real wages as it finds a way to make manufacturing competitive again.

    The idea that it was the EU responsible for the structure of the economy and income inequality is ill-informed

    Also an independent Scotland is basically subject to how Spain feels about Catalonia on the day the vote for entry into the EU comes up
    posted by JPD at 6:50 AM on June 25, 2016 [6 favorites]


    First thing I heard people say when Sinn Féin brought up the possibility of a poll on a reunified Ireland was "they better ask us (in the Republic) too, and they might be surprised by our response".
    posted by Fence at 6:50 AM on June 25, 2016


    I agree that you don't need to realize your losses immediately but you also need to factor in that due to the UK economy basically getting fucked by Brexit there is no guarantee that the Pound will recover.

    Plus most people are in stuff like index funds so to a certain degree they are already going to realize some of those losses. People on a long time horizon might be okay but people looking to retire in the next couple of years probably saw their post retirement income get hammered
    posted by vuron at 6:51 AM on June 25, 2016 [1 favorite]


    It sounds like Downing Street was the largest obstacle to stronger financial regulations across Europe though. We should not waste any time in strengthening the regulations they fought against, given that they've decided they're leaving anyways.
    posted by jeffburdges at 6:56 AM on June 25, 2016 [1 favorite]


    I'm sure the Republic wouldn't mind reunification if the DUPs fucked off to England but I am not sure I would want to suddenly import Northern Ireland's shit during turbulent times.

    It will be interesting to see if there is a big exodus of multinationals from the UK to Ireland. I could see the big banks going to France or the US depending on their focus but a bunch of other firms might try to jump ship.
    posted by vuron at 6:57 AM on June 25, 2016


    First thing I heard people say when Sinn Féin brought up the possibility of a poll on a reunified Ireland was "they better ask us (in the Republic) too, and they might be surprised by our response".

    Oh I don't think we would be. Anyone who thinks that the Republic wants to take us back is living in cloud cuckoo land. But then there's a lot of that going around.
    posted by billiebee at 6:58 AM on June 25, 2016 [10 favorites]


    It sounds like Downing Street was the largest obstacle to stronger financial regulations across Europe though. We should not waste any time in strengthening the regulations they fought against, given that they've decided they're leaving anyways


    They were but actual banks were regulated at a national not EU level. The UK was more about the uniformity of regulation for investment products and securities, which isn't a solvency thing really.
    posted by JPD at 7:18 AM on June 25, 2016








    For anyone still confused as to whether anti-immigration sentiment formed part of the Leave campaign, someone has troubled themselves to create "Yes We Won Now Send Them Back" t-shirts.
    posted by billiebee at 8:06 AM on June 25, 2016 [4 favorites]


    A few reflections, now that I've gathered my thoughts.

    I was up until 2am on Thursday night and Friday morning, and feel asleep on the couch with the grim news of a likely Leave win dancing around my head. At 4am I woke and read on, confirming the worst, watching the pound crash on international markets, until the sun came up and I wandered in a daze into the kitchen. Switching on Radio 4, I heard Nigel Farage crowing about a victory for "real people", "ordinary people", "decent people"; I couldn't stand listening to the man any longer than that, and switched off the radio until I figured he'd be gone. Real, ordinary, decent: I would rather be unreal, extraordinary, and, if it comes to that, indecent. Fuck you, Nigel Farage, and all your friends. Fuck your Real Ale fascism and your narrow plans for the country I've made my home, the country of my ancestors and my children. I don't describe myself as an "expat" and cocoon myself among other UK-based Aussies: I'm an immigrant, who chose to live in this country, for many reasons up to and including its membership of the EU. When you suggest that EU immigrants are a problem, or that refugees looking for safe harbour here are a problem, you attack the supposedly "good" immigrants too. We're all "good" immigrants, as good or bad as anyone else - real people, ordinary people, decent people, making our lives in a precarious world, grateful to live in a relatively secure and stable society. And now, because the elderly and the regions have swallowed the lies of Farage and Murdoch, of Boris and Gove and the Daily Mail, that security is gone, that stability is gone, and it will be decades before it returns, if at all.

    Yesterday morning I sat on a university exam board with colleagues who were Scottish, English, Welsh, Canadian, American, and me an Australian, all shell-shocked and heartbroken, all thinking of other colleagues from Belgium, Germany, Austria, Greece and Italy who weren't at our meeting but work alongside us every day. None of us know the full implications yet for our institution and our jobs, but they can't be good. Many of us will have voted in the 2014 Scottish Referendum against gambling with our sector's future by disrupting the foundations of Scottish governance. Now that the wider UK has done exactly that, our best chance for security is to accept the many downsides of independence and embrace its upside: that it represents our only remaining chance to remain in the EU. If Scotland gains independence and re-admittance, its universities (along with Ireland's) stand to benefit as the only remaining Anglosphere universities in the EU, working with colleagues across Europe and welcoming new talent from England and Europe who want to do the same. But those benefits will be a poor substitute for what we've collectively lost. I'm so desperately sad for fellow academics in England and Wales today - I shudder to think about the effect this will have on them (and, until IndyRef2, us).

    Even though the implications for Scotland are enormous, as they are for everywhere in Britain, I keep thinking of Northern Ireland. I visited it for the first time in 2013, after a lifetime of growing up hearing about the Troubles, bombs on mainland Britain, and finally, and miraculously, the Good Friday agreement. On a day-trip from Belfast to Derry I marvelled that we could now drive out to the Inishowen Peninsula in the Republic without hindrance and that the only signs of difference were the euro prices on service-station signs. Fintan O'Toole's bitter condemnation of the casual indifference of Leave voters towards the fate of this hard-won peace feels entirely justified. Maybe a reunified Ireland will be the end result, or maybe Northern Ireland too will become independent within the EU, but the road to either destination appears far from smooth.

    The only satisfaction I can imagine from the coming months is watching the internicene struggles within the Brexit camp, between the "soft exit" EEA proponents and the crypto-fascists, but any such satisfaction will be undermined by the impact that all of them will have on the rest of us. What on earth will happen once most Leave voters realise they aren't going to get their extra millions for the NHS, or any kind of brake on EU immigration once the EEA camp get their way? (Not that too many EU citizens will want to move here now.) Where will Britain find the seasoned trade negotiators it will need to replace the equivalents in the EU, now that Whitehall has lost all institutional memory of the necessary skills? What if some or all of Britain's emigrants in the EU are forced to return? And how on earth will Britain stuff its racist, foreigner-baiting monsters back into Pandora's box of lead-lined tolerance?

    Yesterday I dropped my son off at his Edinburgh primary school and heard dozens of young voices around us expressing dismay at the Leave result, as he had also done over breakfast; sure, they were mostly following the family line in this 74% Remain city, but the sense that his generation had just had their future stolen from them couldn't have been stronger. Maybe, in Scotland, we can claw a little of it back. I wouldn't know what to say, though, to the nine-year-olds of Cambridge or Cardiff. I suppose by the time they're my age their country will have found a new role in the world and a new normal. Still, try telling a nine-year-old that everything will be fine again by the time they're middle-aged.
    posted by rory at 8:07 AM on June 25, 2016 [67 favorites]


    Brexit: Pulling the Signal Out of the Noise
    Reasons for Brexit
    The referendum, living standards and inequality
    Britain’s EU Problem is a London Problem
    "If Boris Johnson looked downbeat yesterday, that is because he realises that he has lost."
    The sky has not fallen after Brexit but we face years of hard labour

    'If you've got money, you vote in ... if you haven't got money, you vote out'
    Most of all, Brexit is the consequence of the economic bargain struck in the early 1980s, whereby we waved goodbye to the security and certainties of the postwar settlement, and were given instead an economic model that has just about served the most populous parts of the country, while leaving too much of the rest to anxiously decline. Look at the map of those results, and that huge island of “in” voting in London and the south-east; or those jaw-dropping vote-shares for remain in the centre of the capital: 69% in Tory Kensington and Chelsea; 75% in Camden; 78% in Hackney, contrasted with comparable shares for leave in such places as Great Yarmouth (71%), Castle Point in Essex (73%), and Redcar and Cleveland (66%). Here is a country so imbalanced it has effectively fallen over.
    So odd to see UK austerity policies blamed on EU meddling via. Cameron did that one on his own.
    posted by the man of twists and turns at 8:15 AM on June 25, 2016 [6 favorites]


    "If Boris Johnson looked downbeat yesterday, that is because he realises that he has lost."

    It's a Guardian comment, so odds are your browser scroll you to some bizarre discussion between american trolls and russian trolls, but the comment is definitely worth reading. Some fragments:
    With one fell swoop yesterday at 9:15 am, Cameron effectively annulled the referendum result, and simultaneously destroyed the political careers of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and leading Brexiters who cost him so much anguish, not to mention his premiership.
    How?
    Throughout the campaign, Cameron had repeatedly said that a vote for leave would lead to triggering Article 50 straight away. Whether implicitly or explicitly, the image was clear: he would be giving that notice under Article 50 the morning after a vote to leave. Whether that was scaremongering or not is a bit moot now but, in the midst of the sentimental nautical references of his speech yesterday, he quietly abandoned that position and handed the responsibility over to his successor.
    [...]
    Boris Johnson knew this yesterday, when he emerged subdued from his home and was even more subdued at the press conference. He has been out-maneouvered and check-mated.
    If he runs for leadership of the party, and then fails to follow through on triggering Article 50, then he is finished. If he does not run and effectively abandons the field, then he is finished. If he runs, wins and pulls the UK out of the EU, then it will all be over - Scotland will break away, there will be upheaval in Ireland, a recession ... broken trade agreements. Then he is also finished. Boris Johnson knows all of this. [...]
    The Brexit leaders now have a result that they cannot use. For them, leadership of the Tory party has become a poison chalice.
    posted by effbot at 8:25 AM on June 25, 2016 [60 favorites]


    +1 for that Blyth video that Coda Tronca linked.

    The only thing the "eventually people will come for [the elites]" ending needs is "... unless they distract the populace with racist, xenophobic scapegoating, which seems to be working at the moment."
    posted by Noisy Pink Bubbles at 8:28 AM on June 25, 2016 [3 favorites]


    The Red Arrows just flew overhead, streaming out red, white and blue smoke. I searched and quickly found it was for Pride, but for a moment there it felt fucking sinister.
    posted by Pallas Athena at 8:35 AM on June 25, 2016 [1 favorite]


    The Tories that have been flirting with White Nationalism and that's what the UKIPs represent have no one to blame but themselves. By continually pandering to the Ultra Right ruling party Conservatives have just been empowering Farage and his ilk.

    If you need the votes of scared racists to stay in power you need to be reevaluating your strategy.

    Trying to maintain a big tent that aligns Economic conservatives and social conservatives might help your side maintain power but it also can result in situations where charismatic nationalist like Trump and Farage force you into political decisions that ultimately are disastrous.

    Moderate fiscal Tories should look at this result with alarm and push for a move towards a Centrist coalition but they won't because they are terrified of losing power to the UKIPs
    posted by vuron at 8:35 AM on June 25, 2016 [6 favorites]


    > I've only ever heard the phrase used in terms of anti-intellectualism. Describing a situation in which scientists, engineers, "technical experts" and other educated people, take over the government and force their book learnin' on the dumb unwashed masses, to bypass democracy for nefarious purposes.

    Enh, I will quibble some quibbles with that. Yes, in its original and its most technical (heh) sense, technocracy just means rule by technical expertise, but a lot of people objecting to "technocracy" are objecting to the overconfident notion that governance can be reduced to just knowing which levers to push and when, and you pretty much only need to look at the last 30 years of global economic history to understand why that can sometimes lead to (well-intentioned, meticulously planned) disaster.


    I'll quibble too, to point out that it was not originally "used in terms of anti-intellectualism" but was a proud slogan of anti-democratic intellectuals, of which there were a lot in the pre-WWII period, with a lot of big ideas that look pretty bad now (e.g., eugenics). And that mentality hasn't gone away, though the terms and the big ideas change; people who consider themselves smarter than the average bear tend to have contempt for the average bear and to be sure that they and their pals could run the world far better than is managed by democracy. And of course it's easy to be pissed at democracy (a/k/a "mob rule") when you're faced with Brexit, but the thing is, there is no better alternative under present conditions. What is necessary is for the average bear to have enough security and education so that votes aren't so frequently based on ignorance and fear. How we get there, though... that's the problem.
    posted by languagehat at 8:40 AM on June 25, 2016 [17 favorites]


    What on earth will happen once most Leave voters realise they aren't going to get their extra millions for the NHS, or any kind of brake on EU immigration once the EEA camp get their way?

    They will double down on support for the weasels who lead them, go on more marches, and break more immigrants' windows.
    posted by flabdablet at 8:48 AM on June 25, 2016 [10 favorites]


    A lot of commentators seem to be using the data from Lord Ashcroft Polls

    One part I find particularly interesting, and which I haven't seen highlighted in the various columns linked, is the last part, which says:
    More than three quarters (77%) of those who voted to remain thought “the decision we make in the referendum could have disastrous consequences for us as a country if we get it wrong”. More than two thirds (69%) of leavers, by contrast, thought the decision “might make us a bit better or worse off as a country, but there probably isn’t much in it either way”.
    oops, edited to say that the bold in the quote was added by me
    posted by Azara at 8:50 AM on June 25, 2016 [11 favorites]


    That Blythe interview was interesting in that it blamed the elites but was also full of Anti German sentiment basically saying that the Euro is great for big European industrial exporters like BMW but shitty for Southern European economies that will see wage pressure from the eastern European immigrants (which seems like coded antislav prejudice).

    Of course the reality is that globalism is here to stay and the only real way to counter the negative impacts of globalization is by building strong trading blocks that can more or less force importers to comply with regulations by virtue of their combined economic might.

    It's foolish to think that small individual nation states can compete and dictate terms at the same level that the EU can.

    I am sure Chinese and US importers are probably salivating at being able to export to the UK without having to deal with EU regulations.

    I totally think the Tories in the UK will be able to protect the interest of average Britons without the combined might of the EU in stuff like TPP negotiations. Yep party of Thatcher is totally reliable on things like that.
    posted by vuron at 8:52 AM on June 25, 2016 [6 favorites]




    (which seems like coded antislav prejudice)

    Yeah, I bailed out at that point. Maybe it got better later, but I'm so fucking tired of these strands of "fuck the eastern europeans, they don't deserve the progress they've been seeing lately, better change things so southern europe doesn't need to deal with their structural problems" that constantly surfaces in the debate (even if it's occasionally hilarious when it gets mixed up with weird mediterranean exotism from people who's gone there on organized charter tours and thinks everyone works in tourism, or just thinks Yanis is, like, really hot). I mean, it's not like eastern europe is not noticing, and they're a large chunk of the EU28 leadership so driving the populations into the hands of authoritarian fuckwit nationalists isn't that great of a strategy.
    posted by effbot at 9:18 AM on June 25, 2016 [1 favorite]


    Professor Blyth turns out to be a racist too.
    posted by Coda Tronca at 9:29 AM on June 25, 2016


    We also need to keep the difference between losing a billion on paper and losing an actual billion in mind: Both the pound and the various stock markets are bound to recover some of their losses, if you don't need to sell now you haven't lost anything.

    There's something called an opportunity cost and it's very real and very actual. In fact periods of unemployment can have a dramatic opportunity cost on lifetime earnings and compound rather quickly.
    posted by Talez at 9:44 AM on June 25, 2016 [11 favorites]


    Re Mark Blythe: I don't think protectionism is gonna yield anything productive in the EU nations, or anywhere for that matter. He's funny and affable, but kind of an asshole too. Seems like I could have a lovable debate with the guy, get raging pissed in the debate yet still hug him and share a pint afterwards, so I guess there's that.

    I'm not a fan of multilateral trade agreements either or the bullshit promises of Neoliberalism. Mark I believe, is correct in his assumptions of what makes that political ideology so toxic. but he offers no real path forward other than to throw his arms in the air. I mean, he's a highly educated white guy so he will be relatively safe no matter what happens. So he can wait watch and see IMO. Others though cannot just wait and see. They need answers now.

    For an example on my politics and how I view all this, take NAFTA for instance, which bothered this shit out of me not because the jobs that went to Mexico but rather because the working conditions it allows to exist in the maquiladoras down there. I mean, if we're gonna do this right then I believe we should be focusing on the working conditions and limiting the possibilities of worker exploitation in developing nations. That ain't gonna happen under neoliberalism.

    So I guess, what I would like to ask Mark Blythe is: "Is there way to build a global society where we are able to give a fuck about the welfare of all people?"

    Seems like the Neoliberal and Anti-neoliberal sides are winning in the EU *and* with the leave (and trump) supporters, while the socially democratic sides of remain (and maaaaybe bernie) as well as a whole raft of other poorly organized progressive supporters are struggling to find their message that connects to the center. Because like, giving a shit about our fellow humans the world over seems like such a simple principle to convey. I really don't know how to talk more about it.

    I honestly ask this: What more does the socially democratic side need to say before the neoliberal and anti-neoliberal sides make a space for human-rights centered global economic policies to be valued?
    posted by Annika Cicada at 9:48 AM on June 25, 2016 [7 favorites]


    From a largely unnoticed (until now) House of Lords report on leaving the EU:
    We asked Sir David [Edward KCMG, QC, PC, FRSE, a former Judge of the Court of Justice of the European Union and Professor Emeritus at the School of Law, University of Edinburgh] whether he thought the Scottish Parliament would have to give its consent to measures extinguishing the application of EU law in Scotland. He noted that such measures would entail amendment of section 29 of the Scotland Act 1998, which binds the Scottish Parliament to act in a manner compatible with EU law, and he therefore believed that the Scottish Parliament’s consent would be required. He could envisage certain political advantages being drawn from not giving consent.

    We note that the European Communities Act is also entrenched in the devolution settlements of Wales and Northern Ireland. Though we have taken no evidence on this specific point, we have no reason to believe that the requirement for legislative consent for its repeal would not apply to all the devolved nations.
    In other words, the words of MeFi's own Charles Stross, Constitutional Crisis Ahoy!
    If the next leader of the Conservative Party in Westminster (presumptively Bojo, although I am having nightmares about Theresa May getting the job) wants a fig-leaf for switching to "remain", [our] Nicola is about the best that they could hope for. On the other hand, if the Commission are serious about wanting the UK out, they could insist on keeping Scotland as a separate member state, just to add to the pain. The possibilities are endless, within limits.
    posted by infinitewindow at 9:49 AM on June 25, 2016 [10 favorites]


    I don't care if he's racist or not, doing a public interview where you more or less indicate that immigrants from Eastern Europe are pushing doen wages for Western and Southern Europeans is pretty irresponsible because it's reinforcing the scapegoat narrative of the right even if it's intended to be an attack on the elites.

    I think it's indicative of the divisions on the left that think of everything in terms of class conflict and those that have allowed intersectionality to influence their political stances.

    You might not like the impacts of globalization but I think it's possible to argue that from a utilitarian perspective an increase in overall prosperity in the EU block is worth decreases in prosperity in individual nation states. It seems the left should focus less on national concerns and more on improving labor conditions across the EU
    posted by vuron at 9:51 AM on June 25, 2016 [9 favorites]


    doing a public interview where you more or less indicate that immigrants from Eastern Europe are pushing doen wages for Western and Southern Europeans is pretty irresponsible

    It's just a fact. That's why they were allowed in in the first place.
    posted by Coda Tronca at 9:55 AM on June 25, 2016 [7 favorites]


    For me it was all about sovereignty, the ability to make our own decisions and not be ruled by the faceless, non-elected bureaucrats in Brussels ...

    It was also about uncontrolled migration, but never about the economy. I never believed “project fear”, and if the economy does falter, now we have regained control of our country we can make decisions and take action ourselves to rectify it.

    ...

    As an older member of the population, I ... resent the current ageist view being peddled by remain voters that my vote to leave was somehow selfish and of less value than those of a young person, and that I should have thought of their future. I did think of their future, it was just a different future I saw; one living in a free, independent nation, able to make its own decisions unencumbered by Brussels.

    Just because I am older, my opinion is to be ignored or seen as being of less worth. You could say that as I have worked for over 40 years, paid more into society than any young person I therefore have more at stake to lose. My opinion is far more valid.
    —Gary, 55, London
    Meet 10 Britons who voted to leave the EU, Guardian (25 June 2016)
    posted by Sonny Jim at 10:12 AM on June 25, 2016 [3 favorites]


    It's just a fact. That's why they were allowed in in the first place.

    At the moment, European citizens are allowed into the UK because they're fellow Europeans, part of a union that doesn't allow "discrimination based on nationality between workers of the Member States as regards employment, remuneration and other conditions of work and employment." That's one of the four fundamental freedoms for all citizens of EU. Same rights for everyone.

    I know the right-wing UK press tells you otherwise, but they're not a reliable source.
    posted by effbot at 10:14 AM on June 25, 2016 [27 favorites]


    Coda Tronca, surely you mean they are used as cheap labour by those who want to keep wages low. The migrants aren't responsible for a low minimum wage, the national government is!

    The only way to win higher wages is for all workers--migrant and local born--to work together. Scapegoating thus undermines the goal.
    posted by chapps at 10:15 AM on June 25, 2016 [14 favorites]


    Scapegoating thus undermines the goal.

    But it's so easy and instantly gratifying! Fixing the real problem takes work and boooo to that.
    posted by Talez at 10:16 AM on June 25, 2016 [8 favorites]


    Here's a thought. If you resent being called selfish then DON'T ACT SELFISHLY.
    posted by Annika Cicada at 10:18 AM on June 25, 2016 [19 favorites]


    For real, the younger generation grew up with the EU as part of their national identity and the elders of the UK just took that away because they want to return to some post WWII national British identity? (I could have that wrong, it just seems like a harkening back to a good ol days that probably never really was. I mean ask Turing how it worked out for him)

    On a really simple level this whole thing feels like parents took their kid's punk T-shirts out of their bedrooms and burned them on the front lawn for their own good.
    posted by Annika Cicada at 10:22 AM on June 25, 2016 [8 favorites]


    Except there are indications that immigrants actually contribute to the economy just like Latino immigrants contribute to the US economy.

    Strictly viewing the economics of immigration from the lens of zero sum and that for a polish immigrant to suceed a council estate individual has to go on the dole is nonsense. It is possible for both groups to economically prosper.

    Being strictly anti immigrant is a shitty policy especially in light of western Europes trend towards negative population growth. Maybe the UK should look at the relative economic stagnation of Japan as something to avoid rather than something to emulate.

    The solution to the ills of globalization in Europe are not a return to Nationalism because quite frankly you guys are awful about any sort of nationalist tendencies but rather an attempt to reverse the dominance if monetarist policies among the EU.

    There has already been an understanding that politics of austerity have been problematic but instead of pushing a return to Keynesian policies perhaps done at a macro EU level there has been a shift towards right wing nationalist parties who absolutely will not create economic prosperity in the underclass.
    posted by vuron at 10:23 AM on June 25, 2016 [13 favorites]


    Coda Tronca, surely you mean they are used as cheap labour by those who want to keep wages low.

    Of course that's what I mean.
    posted by Coda Tronca at 10:28 AM on June 25, 2016 [5 favorites]


    Good, I'm glad I asked because i was misreading you.


    Re Talez "Fixing the real problem takes work".. . I agree!

    So how can social movements that want economic justice move the public sentiment from "throw the bastards out" to "lets build something better for everyone, including migrants".

    I see hope in the co-operatives movement, which is already well established in the UK as a democratic economic model, and which has been successful in recent years as a buttress against losing local economies (saving the local pub or shop or post office or team through co-op ownership, for example). Is this a place where a more progressive response can be built?

    This is a question facing the left around the world, of course, certainly in my province (in Canada) there is a disconnect between working people and unions, between working people and people living in poverty, and the party founded by unions.

    Of course I am just stating the obvious, but I am thinking a lot about the mechanics of this work.
    posted by chapps at 10:36 AM on June 25, 2016 [4 favorites]


    Except of course the data doesn't actually support that conclusion.

    It wasn't polish immigrants who shut down manufacturing
    posted by JPD at 10:37 AM on June 25, 2016 [4 favorites]


    Maybe the UK should look at the relative economic stagnation of Japan as something to avoid rather than something to emulate.

    The idea that Japan is experiencing "stagnation" is an absolute myth. The difference between Britain and Japan is that Japan has never pursued austerity. When people talk about Japan's stagnation, whether they realize it or not, they're criticizing Japan for refusing to slash public budgets, as has been done in Britain and the US.

    Japan, by the way, has a sizable population of "guest workers" in the country that serve as cheap labour, and the government is slowly moving towards mass immigration (although what is the point if, like in Canada, most immigrants live in poverty and are underemployed?)

    Everyone says that "of course, Japan is headed for a reckoning, Japan is going to jump off a cliff," but, gee, look who just jumped off the cliff first? And look who is poised to do so in November 2016?

    People always want to point out how "bad" Japan is, but while there may be income disparity, the quality of life in much of the country outside of a couple of regions is pretty high.

    Maybe Britain should be looking to Japan for inspiration: continued (albeit tattered) social contract, public spending, affordable education, good transportation, etc etc.
    posted by My Dad at 10:54 AM on June 25, 2016 [8 favorites]


    And of course it's easy to be pissed at democracy (a/k/a "mob rule") when you're faced with Brexit, but the thing is, there is no better alternative under present conditions. What is necessary is for the average bear to have enough security and education so that votes aren't so frequently based on ignorance and fear. How we get there, though... that's the problem.

    While I don't disagree with the general thrust of your point, I think there was a better alternative to what just happened - representative democracy. It's not just about security and education, it's also about having a democracy that is both effective and legitimate. British representative democracy is (was?) a relatively effective means of government, but there is a fundamental need for us to make our sovereign parliament more legitimate.

    Instead, David Cameron decided to entirely undermine Britain's constitutional structure for personal gain, resulting in one of the greatest acts of self-harm that any nation has ever engaged in. Even a Tory/UKIP coalition (such as a proportional version of our last election might have produced) would not have jumped off this cliff without any real planning or negotiation.

    We needed more democracy, we still need more democracy. We did not need a binary referendum on a fundamentally complex and issue.

    One thing I've been wondering about is whether the apparent buyer's remorse that at least a small number of people are exhibiting about yesterday's result has something to do with a general loss of faith in the democratic process. Did some proportion of voters, used to not being listened to, simply think that there was no way they'd have been allowed to vote if it was going to change anything?
    posted by howfar at 11:02 AM on June 25, 2016 [12 favorites]


    The quality of life is high but declining and will decline dramatically when/if the government is forced to devalue all at once.

    Japan is not a model you want to follow. Additionally it's only worked as long as it has because the government has funded themselves largely through an extremely high domestic savings rate and a risk averse population that was happy to buy JGBs.

    Britain doesn't have that.
    posted by JPD at 11:03 AM on June 25, 2016 [1 favorite]


    So now the petition has reached 2 million signatures (!!) and it's still growing. Yet all the media outlets quote Cameron and Corbyn who have insisted there will be no new referendum. Is there truly no hope for a new referendum? At any rate, Cameron's dead meat, and it looks like Corbyn's days are numbered.
    posted by suburbanbeatnik at 11:06 AM on June 25, 2016 [1 favorite]


    I wonder if all future referendums -- not just in the UK but worldwide -- would benefit from having a third "to be quite honest, I don't understand the full implications of this" option.
    posted by tobascodagama at 11:07 AM on June 25, 2016 [20 favorites]


    The problem is that the people who genuinely don't understand the question would ignore it. Ignorance is such a well of confidence.
    posted by Grangousier at 11:09 AM on June 25, 2016 [18 favorites]


    tobascodagama, assuming the dunning-kruger effect is accurate, then I believe the most informed among society would never actually vote for anything, leaving the least informed voters to pick whatever side they gut-checked on.
    posted by Annika Cicada at 11:10 AM on June 25, 2016 [4 favorites]


    The problem is that the people who genuinely don't understand the question would ignore it. Ignorance is such a well of confidence.

    What if we offered shares in a Bitcoin mining operation as a reward for ticking this box?
    posted by howfar at 11:10 AM on June 25, 2016 [9 favorites]


    Yeah, a "I'm voting for the lulz" option would probably be more accurate.
    posted by TwoStride at 11:11 AM on June 25, 2016 [4 favorites]


    tobascodagama, assuming the dunning-kruger effect is accurate, then I believe the most informed among society would never actually vote for anything, leaving the least informed voters to pick whatever side they gut-checked on.

    I'm not sure this is a fundamentally different result than what we already get.
    posted by tobascodagama at 11:14 AM on June 25, 2016 [3 favorites]


    I'm not sure this is a fundamentally different result than what we already get.

    I'm 90% sure this is how Bojo Jojo made it past the first round of preselection in his first election.
    posted by Talez at 11:17 AM on June 25, 2016 [2 favorites]


    Metafilter: to be quite honest, I don't understand the full implications of this
    posted by one_bean at 11:23 AM on June 25, 2016 [12 favorites]


    I like the way there's an unprecedented constitutional crisis happening and David Cameron's gone to watch some marching bands troop through the centre of cleethorpes and everyone else in the government has phoned in sick and won't get out of bed at all.

    Imagine having a plan or some sense of responsibility or even making even the barest attempt at governance in the slightest.
    posted by dng at 11:24 AM on June 25, 2016 [12 favorites]


    One implication is a Brexit-themed Chuck Tingle novel
    posted by Noisy Pink Bubbles at 11:24 AM on June 25, 2016 [16 favorites]




    There's something called an opportunity cost and it's very real and very actual. In fact periods of unemployment can have a dramatic opportunity cost on lifetime earnings and compound rather quickly.

    I was mostly thinking of dramatic claims that big investors/funds have had $X billion pounds wiped out overnight: they haven't, they're going to be sitting on their positions until things get better. Not a good thing to have happening to your investment, but not as bad as the number figure makes it sound.
    posted by Dr Dracator at 11:30 AM on June 25, 2016 [1 favorite]


    The 'LOL Leave voters regret it' stories in the media are just their extension of the relentless smearing of all Leave voters as racists and idiots.
    This was, in great part, a vote by those angered and demoralised by the sheer arrogance of the apologists for the “Remain” campaign and the dismemberment of a socially just civil life in Britain. The last bastion of the historic reforms of 1945, the National Health Service, has been so subverted by Tory and Labour-supported privateers it is fighting for its life.

    A forewarning came when the Treasurer, George Osborne, the embodiment of both Britain’s ancient regime and the banking mafia in Europe, threatened to cut £30 billion from public services if people voted the wrong way; it was blackmail on a shocking scale.
    Yes. Pulling the country apart is just a great big reactionary "fuck you" to the powers that be. That's not a stupid reaction by idiots at all.
    posted by Talez at 11:31 AM on June 25, 2016 [28 favorites]




    That Pilger article is basically so much hokkum. People weren't voting for Brexit to teach neoliberal theocrats a lesson but because they want a return to a mythical past.

    And the rhetoric and invective might as well have just been lifted off of some right wing site like Breitbart.

    The hatred of all things London more or less leapt of the page and I am sorry when your intent starts to resemble Robespierre and the Terror you have lost me.
    posted by vuron at 11:38 AM on June 25, 2016 [12 favorites]


    So I took a quick look at the comments in the Daily Mail article. How frequent/robust was the characterization of the EU as a "dictatorship" by Leave?
    posted by TwoStride at 11:41 AM on June 25, 2016 [1 favorite]


    What is necessary is for the average bear to have enough security and education so that votes aren't so frequently based on ignorance and fear.

    This needs to happen in a way that doesn't involve making the decision to sacrifice a great number of bears in a decision consulting everyone but those slated for the first round of culling.
    posted by Dysk at 11:41 AM on June 25, 2016 [2 favorites]


    People weren't voting for Brexit to teach neoliberal theocrats a lesson but because they want a return to a mythical past.

    An assertion.
    posted by Coda Tronca at 11:41 AM on June 25, 2016 [1 favorite]


    On Johnson and Gove:
    ... Vote Leave assured the electorate it would reclaim a supposed £350m Brussels takes from us each week. They knew it was a lie. Between them, they promised to spend £111bn on the NHS, cuts to VAT and council tax, higher pensions, a better transport system and replacements for the EU subsidies to the arts, science, farmers and deprived regions. When boring experts said that, far from being rich, we would face a £40bn hole in our public finances, Vote Leave knew how to fight back. In Johnsonian fashion, it said that the truth tellers were corrupt liars in Brussels’ pocket
    There are liars and then there’s Boris Johnson and Michael Gove
    posted by Mister Bijou at 11:41 AM on June 25, 2016 [3 favorites]


    dng, I'm reminded of the story put about that John Major was found hiding in the toilet on Black Wednesday. Except even if that were true he actually came out and faced the music that same day.
    posted by comealongpole at 11:43 AM on June 25, 2016 [2 favorites]


    An assertion.

    As are Pilger's claims. They just happen to be assertions you agree with.
    posted by howfar at 11:44 AM on June 25, 2016 [16 favorites]


    There are liars and then there’s Boris Johnson and Michael Gove

    And yet there's a good chance that one of those two fuckwits is going to be the PM.

    How sad that must make a pom right now.
    posted by Talez at 11:44 AM on June 25, 2016 [1 favorite]


    Imagine having a plan or some sense of responsibility or even making even the barest attempt at governance in the slightest.

    Oh, they had plans. Boris probably had a couple of plans, even. But not for the combination of brexit win and Cameron going "ok, I'm out, it's all yours now" without even bothering to call him first, and that after he'd signed that letter and all. That ruined all his plans.

    But don't worry, he'll come up with new ones. I'm not convinced he's going to be your next PM, though.
    posted by effbot at 11:44 AM on June 25, 2016 [3 favorites]


    That Pilger article is basically so much hokkum. People weren't voting for Brexit to teach neoliberal theocrats a lesson but because they want a return to a mythical past.
    Look, if we're going to deride Leavers for voting with their gut can we not pull opinions out of our arse to back up the points?
    So now the petition has reached 2 million signatures (!!) and it's still growing. Yet all the media outlets quote Cameron and Corbyn who have insisted there will be no new referendum. Is there truly no hope for a new referendum?
    A snap election and one side running on "we will stay in" is the only way I can see that happening.
    The only problem with that is the chances of BoJo or Gove calling a snap election are pretty much fuck all.
    posted by fullerine at 11:49 AM on June 25, 2016 [1 favorite]


    A second referendum would not be necessary if, as a result of Cameron’s resignation, the UK fought a general election where the winning side explicitly campaigned not to invoke Article 50. This general election would become the second referendum.

    PM's can't call snap elections anymore though. They have to be triggered by a vote of no confidence by parliament. I'm not sure that's particularly likely.
    posted by sourcejedi at 11:54 AM on June 25, 2016


    Another thing which this whole situation brings to mind is a headline I read in The (Sunday?) Times years ago (late nineties probably) and which has haunted me ever since. I don't know if it was a re-dressed thinktank press release, a puff piece for a book dressed up as news or what. As I imperfectly recall the small article buried in the back of the paper sketched in broad, vague and doom-laden terms the likely trajectory of the early-to-mid twenty-first century, i.e. the obvious likely rise of China/India, a broader reach for international terrorism, splintering of post-WWII institutions and so-forth. The particularly memorable headline was "West To Decline And Fall Among Bad Neighbours".

    I never, never expected my country, [Great] Britain/The United Kingdom to play the role of a bad neighbour.
    posted by comealongpole at 12:00 PM on June 25, 2016


    PM's can't call snap elections anymore though. They have to be triggered by a vote of no confidence by parliament. I'm not sure that's particularly likely.

    You really think the SNP and Labor wouldn't jump at the chance to push the dysfunctional Tories off a cliff?
    posted by Talez at 12:01 PM on June 25, 2016


    The Leave campaigning was "Make Britain Great (i.e., White) Again". It's not an assertion, it's taking the campaigners at face value.
    posted by tobascodagama at 12:02 PM on June 25, 2016 [14 favorites]


    Remind me: What part of "leave the EU so we can close the borders to all those filthy refugees" is sticking it to the technocrats in Brussels?
    posted by tobascodagama at 12:04 PM on June 25, 2016 [15 favorites]


    Whatever the result of the referendum, what has followed - that the leaders of the Leave campaign were basically bullshitting and have no clear idea of what to do next - suggests to me that members of Parliament have a quite justifiable case for ignoring the referendum for the good of the country. What that would do to all the jubilant types merrily going round telling anyone vaguely foreign-looking they're going to be sent home is going to be really interesting.

    Since they were voting for what was essentially a pack of lies, they're going to be disappointed sooner or later, so we might as well get it over with.
    posted by Grangousier at 12:05 PM on June 25, 2016 [5 favorites]


    You really think the SNP and Labor wouldn't jump at the chance to push the dysfunctional Tories off a cliff?

    I think the Tories have a straight majority, and I don't know what any of them would gain from voting to help remove that majority. Corrections very much welcomed.
    posted by sourcejedi at 12:06 PM on June 25, 2016


    Are you guys really suggesting that a great deal of UKIP and tory voters weren't primarily voting based upon immigration?

    I do think that there are some legitimate concerns about the EU government but a rapid withdrawal is stupid and destructive and basically guaranteed to harm those it's supposed to benefit.

    Pressure on Brussels is easier inside the EU than external to it.

    And if this ends up devastating Britain's economy and people want to return should the UK get to return to special status which already favors British interests or should the have to return under the same conditions other states have?
    posted by vuron at 12:07 PM on June 25, 2016 [3 favorites]


    An A to Z of Brexit.
    posted by Artw at 12:08 PM on June 25, 2016 [1 favorite]




    I think the Tories have a straight majority, and I don't know what any of them would gain from voting to help remove that majority. Corrections very much welcomed.

    When your options are no confidence and letting either Bojo Jojo or Gove into the PM chair to dismantle the UK, the question a lot of backbenchers must be asking themselves right now is "party or country?"
    posted by Talez at 12:08 PM on June 25, 2016 [3 favorites]


    PM's can't call snap elections anymore though. They have to be triggered by a vote of no confidence by parliament. I'm not sure that's particularly likely.

    Well, any majority of Parliament can trigger a general election, in reality. Because you only need a straight majority to repeal the Fixed-term Parliaments Act. "Constitutional" legislation is only ever advisory, at least until it become ingrained as constitutional convention, and, even then, Parliament is sovereign.
    posted by howfar at 12:10 PM on June 25, 2016 [2 favorites]


    I think we can safely assume that anyone who claims all leavers voted leave for one single reason, especially when that reason happens to be the one they have themselves, is wrong.

    But the "I'm not racist, therefore racism has nothing to do with the result" leave folks should go read some articles from earlier this year about the campaign strategies -- the Brexit campaign explicitly decided to focus on immigration in late April when the polls didn't go the way they wanted, which was soon followed by things like the apparently 4chan-inspired Abandon Ship cartoon and the infamous Breaking Point. And some might even remember the murder of a pro-EU politician, even if the guy in the photo in the second link has already forgotten about her. The leavers will forever be associated with that stuff.
    posted by effbot at 12:11 PM on June 25, 2016 [23 favorites]


    Also, it strikes me you shouldn't claim that "most of the rest of Britain" voted for Brexit when it was only...what, a 52% majority? And how low was the voter turnout?
    posted by EmpressCallipygos at 12:17 PM on June 25, 2016 [8 favorites]


    From the man of twists and turns' link:

    "But the Leave campaigners lied! They won’t be sending all of the EU savings to the NHS, as promised.
    I never thought we’d redirect all of the EU savings to the NHS, because that would be insane. What about the other industries that need increased government support now, like agriculture and science? I always thought the savings would be spent on a broad range of deserving areas, many of which currently rely on EU cash and mustn’t be neglected."

    It looks like this man thinks that it's the bit about giving it to the NHS that was a lie, not the £350m figure itself. He is still in for a rude awakening when those areas that mustn't be neglected have the financial floor pulled out from underneath them.
    posted by Dysk at 12:17 PM on June 25, 2016 [10 favorites]


    I am utterly shocked at the number of Leave justifiers whose arguments include a strong dose of "Well, now that we've voted to remove the brakes from the Tories, it's time to get Labor in!"
    posted by Pope Guilty at 12:19 PM on June 25, 2016 [2 favorites]


    Why did I, like most of the UK, vote ‘Brexit’?

    a) what a pile of shallow self-congratulatory wank that article is, and
    b) what a shitty headline; a narrow victory at 72% turnout means that most of the UK didn't vote Leave.
    posted by We had a deal, Kyle at 12:19 PM on June 25, 2016 [21 favorites]


    He is still in for a rude awakening when those areas that mustn't be neglected have the financial floor pulled out from underneath them.

    Every council who is currently getting EU funding is going to be coming to Westminster hat in hand.
    posted by Talez at 12:19 PM on June 25, 2016 [1 favorite]


    But the "I'm not racist, therefore racism has nothing to do with the result" leave folks

    For the record, the Pilger article fully acknowledges the whipping up of race hate in its 4th paragraph. And he is one of the most experienced, dedicated, courageous and respected of all left journalists and activists, not some random dude on the internet like me.
    posted by Coda Tronca at 12:20 PM on June 25, 2016 [1 favorite]


    Why did I, like most of the UK, vote ‘Brexit’?

    Of course, I'm no racist! Nosirree! But those immigrants! We can't be expected to allow those immigrants here in such numbers, can we?
    posted by Existential Dread at 12:21 PM on June 25, 2016 [9 favorites]


    Every council who is currently getting EU funding is going to be coming to Westminster hat in hand.

    That's a lot of hats. Don't think there's going to be enough bread to fill all them, I don't.
    posted by Dysk at 12:22 PM on June 25, 2016 [6 favorites]


    Of course, I'm no racist! Nosirree! But those immigrants! We can't be expected to allow those immigrants here in such numbers, can we?

    I mean, the entire population of Turkey is packed and ready to hop on the next plane to Heathrow!
    posted by Grangousier at 12:31 PM on June 25, 2016


    Mod note: A few comments removed; this is once again getting more heated than it needs to, and folks need to do a bit better job all around of not escalating the conversation in here as some sort of personalized proxy for all the complicated shit tied up in national and international politics, and conversely of not treating discussion of those larger issues as an inherently personal attack. And if you've been commenting a bunch in here, probably a decent idea to just step away and let the thread breathe in general.
    posted by cortex (staff) at 12:42 PM on June 25, 2016 [11 favorites]


    I hope that as I age I'll continue to vote with the best interests of youth in mind. The people that voted to fight again the battles of WWII I found really troubling. But this paragraph really creeps me out:
    What about the 74% of 18–24 year olds who voted Remain? This is a very unfair result for a Remain-voting generation who’ll have to live with it the longest.

    I agree the EU referendum should have set an upper age limit, as people over-80 won’t live with the consequences for long. I’d vote for a rule change for future referendums like this, although I can imagine the difficulties trying to decide what the upper age limit should be! 65? 75? 80?
    That's a very blithe acceptance of age discrimination there, pal.
    posted by Existential Dread at 12:47 PM on June 25, 2016 [13 favorites]


    And he is one of the most experienced, dedicated, courageous and respected of all left journalists and activists

    Also the guy who called Obama "Uncle Tom". He went off the rails ages ago.
    posted by effbot at 12:47 PM on June 25, 2016 [16 favorites]


    That's a very blithe acceptance of age discrimination there, pal.
    Theresa May feels like the best option.
    I stopped reading his nonsense at that point.
    posted by urbanwhaleshark at 12:52 PM on June 25, 2016 [4 favorites]


    No elected representative is going to allow a do over referendum without some significant changes to the offer on the table. Cause where does that stop? Don't like the result of your constituency election? Let's start an unrepresentative petition to have another go!

    There would've been a petition with just as many signatories if we'd voted to Remain.
    posted by Helga-woo at 12:54 PM on June 25, 2016 [2 favorites]


    Sorry, for those who don't know, Theresa May is pretty much the vilest person in the Tory cabinet.
    posted by urbanwhaleshark at 1:02 PM on June 25, 2016 [11 favorites]


    No elected representative is going to allow a do over referendum without some significant changes to the offer on the table.

    As noted earlier, the Daily Mail has now informed their readers of the consequences. Looks like a significant change to me :-)
    posted by effbot at 1:05 PM on June 25, 2016 [4 favorites]


    No elected representative is going to allow a do over referendum without some significant changes to the offer on the table.

    Not just the Daily Mail, the Leave campaign have rather amended what they're offering since the vote.
    posted by Dysk at 1:07 PM on June 25, 2016 [4 favorites]


    Possibly but a remain result probably wouldn't have triggered a massive sell off of assets. For a decent number of pro Brexit voters the mass sell off and now sober analysis of the actual financial impacts of Brexit are causing buyers remorse in some people.

    Is a do over appropriate? Probably not but the referendum was never appropriate either.

    Representative democracies aren't perfect but at least they typically avoid doing completely stupid things like this. And representative democracies reconsider things all the time I can see a case being made that voters in the UK need another chance to consider this course of action before going all the way.
    posted by vuron at 1:07 PM on June 25, 2016 [5 favorites]


    urbanwhaleshark: Only because Ian Duncan Smith resigned.
    posted by Grangousier at 1:07 PM on June 25, 2016 [3 favorites]


    As noted earlier, the Daily Mail has now informed their readers of the consequences. Looks like a significant change to me :-)

    If you're being facetious the smiley is actually :^)
    posted by Talez at 1:10 PM on June 25, 2016


    Isn't the facetious smile more or less implied in regards to the Mail?
    posted by vuron at 1:12 PM on June 25, 2016


    the chances of BoJo or Gove calling a snap election are pretty much fuck all

    Really? Why do you think Labour MPs are trying to get rid of Corbyn? It's because they think the new PM might call a snap election in the autumn. If that happens, and if Corbyn is still in charge, the Labour Party will be heading for electoral disaster.

    PM's can't call snap elections anymore though

    Yes, they can, though they would have to do so via a vote of confidence. And it might be a very shrewd thing to do, to call an early general election, with the Tories well placed to pick up votes from UKIP, and Labour hopelessly divided.

    A lot now depends on the timetable for invoking Article 50. As a lot of people have been pointing out, the UK would be well advised to delay this as long as possible. Article 50 turns out to be a really crap piece of drafting (probably because nobody imagined it would ever have to be used) and doesn't even explain how the process of notification is supposed to happen. But as Joshua Rozenberg pointed out in the Guardian yesterday, Article 50 is a wasting asset with no emergency brake. In other words, once the two-year countdown begins, there is no way of stopping or delaying it. The UK would therefore have to negotiate from a very weak bargaining position; the EU could set whatever terms and conditions it wanted, and say, in effect, 'take it or leave it', knowing that the UK would have no alternative. (And if you think the EU wouldn't behave like that, I'm afraid you're being naive.)

    So a possible scenario might be this. Prime Minister Johnson announces a six-month period of intensive negotiation to agree on a 'roadmap' for Britain's exit from the EU. At the end of that time, he emerges with a set of proposals. He then calls a general election, declaring that if he wins the election he will immediately invoke Article 50. The election will effectively be a second referendum.
    posted by verstegan at 1:14 PM on June 25, 2016 [8 favorites]


    I never, never expected my country, [Great] Britain/The United Kingdom to play the role of a bad neighbour.

    *cough*history..*cough*colonialism...*cough*orientalism...
    posted by aielen at 1:24 PM on June 25, 2016 [30 favorites]


    Sorry, for those who don't know, Theresa May is pretty much the vilest person in the Tory cabinet.

    I'm not going to defend Theresa May, who is genuinely vile (for example, not being above lying about human rights law, immigration and cats), but I worry about a tendency to label her as exceptionally vile in the company she keeps. The potential gender implications are concerning to me.

    I want to be clear that I don't mean that as any specific criticism of your statement, given I do not know the specific reasons for your view. I just wanted to flag up my concern about a general tendency which I personally perceive in relation to May.
    posted by howfar at 1:25 PM on June 25, 2016 [6 favorites]


    I want to be clear that I don't mean that as any specific criticism of your statement, given I do not know the specific reasons for your view. I just wanted to flag up my concern about a general tendency which I personally perceive in relation to May.

    NP. It wasn't a reflection of her gender, and apologise if it came across that way. It was a reflection of her disgust of people and the many ways she sets about to destroy their lives and families. I completely understand your concern tho which is why I made a conscious choice not to take my comments in that direction, and I'd ask anyone else from refraining from that too.
    posted by urbanwhaleshark at 1:31 PM on June 25, 2016 [4 favorites]


    Honestly, May is genuinely terribad. Ian And Duncan Smith was smug and incompetent. Of the cabinet, it's easily the unctuous, slithy Gove most worthy of the epithet "vile" though.
    posted by comealongpole at 1:33 PM on June 25, 2016 [4 favorites]


    True.
    posted by Grangousier at 1:38 PM on June 25, 2016




    Talk about serendipity. This just appeared on my timeline (2 months old).
    Britain should withdraw from the European convention on human rights regardless of the EU referendum result, Theresa May has said, in comments that contradict ministers within her own government.
    posted by urbanwhaleshark at 1:41 PM on June 25, 2016 [1 favorite]


    Has The Intercept endorsed Trump yet?
    posted by (Arsenio) Hall and (Warren) Oates at 1:45 PM on June 25, 2016 [1 favorite]


    It can be two things, Glenn.
    posted by Sys Rq at 1:54 PM on June 25, 2016 [6 favorites]


    Even Greenwald is arguing that it is the wrong answer to a question that establishment politics failed to address - I.e. that it was effectively a mistake, a vote borne of frustration and ignorance.
    posted by Dysk at 1:57 PM on June 25, 2016 [4 favorites]


    Leave voters -- like Trump voters -- are simply motivated by economic anxiety and we should listen to their concerns to fully understand their complicated frustrations.
    posted by (Arsenio) Hall and (Warren) Oates at 1:58 PM on June 25, 2016 [15 favorites]


    Honestly, May is genuinely terribad.

    Friends in London with solid media connections say May is currently seen as the most likely next PM; Johnson probably don't want to at this point (being the one who invokes Article 50 was never in his plan, as suggested earlier, and chances are he didn't even expect Brexit to win), and I'm not sure Gove has ever wanted to be the main guy.

    But that's just speculation, and lots of things can change between now and October (or when the French figure out how to force the UK to invoke Article 50, whatever happens first).
    posted by effbot at 1:59 PM on June 25, 2016


    ...fully understand their complicated frustrations.

    What's up with that hair tho?
    posted by Annika Cicada at 2:03 PM on June 25, 2016 [2 favorites]


    Greenwald does have a point: rather than simply rejecting the result and the voters that delivered it, we need to offer something better to reduce the inequality so evident in our society. But in trying to emphasize this point, there seems to be this desire to paper over the very stark fact that Brexit/Trumpism is driven by some of the very elites Greenwald decries, manipulating working class voters through overt racism and ethnic panic. Pointing that out and pushing back hard against it can coincide with pushing our more sane 'establishment' leaders to do better.
    posted by Existential Dread at 2:05 PM on June 25, 2016 [18 favorites]


    First post-Brexit polls of support in Scotland for independence are at 59 percent - the independence referendum lost 45-55. That's an enormous swing.

    It's only one poll, of course, and things are febrile, but it's a very strong signal.
    posted by Devonian at 2:05 PM on June 25, 2016 [8 favorites]


    So what happens to UKIP when Scotland leaves? Not really a UK to be I anymore, is there?
    posted by (Arsenio) Hall and (Warren) Oates at 2:09 PM on June 25, 2016 [1 favorite]


    So what happens to UKIP when Scotland leaves? Not really a UK to be I anymore, is there?

    They become WEKIP (Wales and England Kingdom Independence Party).
    posted by Talez at 2:11 PM on June 25, 2016 [2 favorites]


    Norsefire, obviously
    posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 2:11 PM on June 25, 2016 [8 favorites]


    It will still be the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, if GB now means "England & Wales".
    posted by billiebee at 2:11 PM on June 25, 2016 [3 favorites]


    Why did I, like most of the UK, vote ‘Brexit’?
    [link] posted by the man of twists and turns at 8:08 PM on June 25


    Gah, I should have spared my blood pressure and not read that. Some of it is post-hoc rationalisation, sure, but some of it is the sort of stuff we're going to hear a lot of in coming weeks and months, so it warrants debunking...

    In three years, I’d like to see a reformed Labour government back in power — one that’s in touch with their voters who largely voted out of the EU.

    "Largely" doesn't mean "mostly". Most Labour voters voted to remain. How will they feel about a "reformed Labour" that rejects their position?

    So why did I vote Leave? Simply because I believe it’s more democratic to elect a government who have full control over affairs like taxes and immigration, and will work 100% for the economic prosperity of its people, services and industries. Is that so mad? It’s how it was for years before we joined. Do any Americans reading this find this position crazy? Or Canadians? Australians?

    Hey, that last one is little ol' dual-citizen me! Yes, I find it crazy, and suspect quite a few Americans and Canadians would too, because we all come from federal countries. We have the right of freedom of movement from state to state and province to province, and any attempt to abridge that would strike us as crazy - yet moving from Vancouver to Quebec is just as dramatic a change as moving from London to Provence. Individual states also have control over some taxation but not all of it, so that's not going to strike us as crazy either. Also, we vote for different governments at state and federal level, and understand that democracy resides at both of those levels (and in local elections too, just as we do in the UK for councils and/or mayors). Just because you might not have paid attention to European Parliament elections doesn't mean they didn't happen.

    You already had a UK government working 100% for the prosperity of its people. You also had an EU working 100% for the prosperity of its people. 1 in 8 of its people were British. (Are! Are British! I cling to the reassurance that I'll be an EU citizen for a couple more years yet, at least.)

    The government used to know they’d need to finance ‘X’ number of schools, houses and hospitals, to provide for a population they could predict the future numbers of… but when immigrant numbers are unpredictable but high we can’t cope

    When my son was born in 2007 it was in the middle of a mini-baby boom, in part due to shameless economic migrants of child-bearing age like me, no doubt, but also for other reasons, and in any case only just passing the UK birth rate last seen in 1990, and never as high as birth rates from 1945-1975. Any council education departments paying attention were entirely able to predict that school numbers would be under strain five years later. They wouldn't have been under strain in my city if the council hadn't shut down urban primary schools in the early 2000s in response to a decline in the 1990s and lost the capacity to ramp up again quickly. Even then, they wouldn't have been under such strain if the council had redrawn its school catchment boundaries to spread kids around more evenly. And even then, they might not be under strain for that much longer, because birth rates started going down again in 2013.

    Most countries aren’t in the EU and do perfectly well for themselves.

    Most countries have never been in the EU, so we have no way of knowing how they would cope with leaving it. We also had no way of knowing how we would cope with that, but we're sure as hell going to find out now.

    I also worry that Scotland will get a second referendum on national independence, and this time will vote to leave the United Kingdom — more as a pro-EU vote. A UK without Scotland would be terrible for both countries, I still believe.

    Well, stand by for terrible, because it's going to happen. The 45 will almost all vote the same way again for the reasons they held in 2014 (the crash in oil prices might give a few some pause), and if a mere 1 in 8 or 9 of the rest change their vote as a means of staying in the EU, Scotland will become independent. Nostalgia for long-retired fishing fleets won't change that.

    it’s possible they could vote to join a struggling EU just as the UK become a more dynamic and prosperous country outside of the EU

    The rest of the EU has 6-7 times as many people in it as the UK, and many of them are (quelle surprise!) very clever. They've got just as much chance of figuring out how to make things work as the "dynamic" UK. And how dynamic do we really think the UK will be only a few years from now, which is when indy Scotland will rejoin the EU? How dynamic has most of the UK been feeling eight years after 2008?

    Of course, there’s a chance I’ll read this article in 2, 5 or 10 year’s times and shake my head in utter disbelief at the nonsense I wrote. ... Was I brainwashed by Boris? Hoodwinked by Gove? Fed lies by the Leave campaign in a quest for autonomous political power? ... Maybe! I don’t know for sure.

    Start paying attention to all of the Leave backtracking that's been going on these past few days, and you'll soon know for sure. No need to wait 2 years.
    posted by rory at 2:13 PM on June 25, 2016 [42 favorites]


    So what happens to UKIP when Scotland leaves? Not really a UK to be I anymore, is there?

    Unsubstantial Kingdom.
    posted by duffell at 2:13 PM on June 25, 2016


    Scotland leaving the union was probably a bad decision to make when the last vote happened.

    The UK leaving the EU is also a bad decision.

    Scotland choosing to leave the Union and rejoin the EU might be seen as making the best of a bad decision.

    Ultimately it seems like Scotland expects Brussels to look after their interests more than Westminster.

    Regarding Greenwald, haven't we all come to the realization that he's just a left contrarian. He's great at identifying problems but completely shit at helping create solutions.
    posted by vuron at 2:16 PM on June 25, 2016 [10 favorites]


    Ultimately it seems like Scotland expects Brussels to look after their interests more than Westminster.

    That's hardly new.
    posted by Pope Guilty at 2:20 PM on June 25, 2016


    Scotland leaving the union was probably a bad decision to make when the last vote happened.

    The UK leaving the EU is also a bad decision.

    Scotland choosing to leave the Union and rejoin the EU might be seen as making the best of a bad decision.


    Exactly.

    I'd quite like the next Yes campaign to tweak their imagery a bit, though. Put the Indy Yes inside the EU stars and I might even stick it in my own window next time.
    posted by rory at 2:32 PM on June 25, 2016




    Ultimately it seems like Scotland expects Brussels to look after their interests more than Westminster.

    If Scotland signed over the North Sea oilfields to England they'd save Scotland the trouble and kick them out of the union themselves. That's what Scotland staying in the union is entirely about.
    posted by Talez at 2:37 PM on June 25, 2016 [2 favorites]


    Well it's probably an opinion based upon years of hard won experience. I wouldn't be shocked if Yorkshire and Liverpool would be willing to vote for Disunion if they were given the option as well based deep seated animosity regarding policies towards the North.

    The number of Labour voters that seem willing to cross over and vote UKIP for stuff like the European elections seem concerning, it seems to show that attempts to divide and conquer the working class along ethnic and nationalist lines is an extremely successful strategy.

    I'm not really sure what this vote is intended to accomplish in regards to advancing labour interests in the UK.

    1) Vote Brexit
    2) SNP freaks the fuck out and votes the exist the union
    3) Balance of power completely shifts in favor of the Tories
    4) Dismantling of remaining social programs like the NHS
    5) ?
    6) PROFIT

    Short term yeah it seems like it's a good way to punish those horrible bankers but the reality is tat Capital is hypermobile and the UK leaving the EU just made doing business in the UK harder which will no doubt mean the loss of companies and banks to environments where they can achieve better returns. So basically seems like the classic case of cutting off your nose to spite your face.
    posted by vuron at 2:40 PM on June 25, 2016 [1 favorite]


    We have the right of freedom of movement from state to state and province to province, and any attempt to abridge that would strike us as crazy - yet moving from Vancouver to Quebec is just as dramatic a change as moving from London to Provence.

    You don't call your fellow citizens "immigrants" or "migrants" by default, though. I mean, this paragraph would sound pretty cranky if you replaced [group of people] with, say, vancouverites:
    I don’t blame [group of people] for coming here, and it’s great that most get jobs and pay their taxes (atrocious propaganda that they don’t), but you can’t plan the future of [my state/country's] needs when you can’t accurately predict the growth of our population. The government used to know they’d need to finance ‘X’ number of schools, houses and hospitals, to provide for a population they could predict the future numbers of… but when [group of people] numbers are unpredictable but high we can’t cope.
    but using "immigrant" is perfectly fine, despite these immigrants being other EU citizens. (For people who aren't EU citizens, try reading it as "I don't blame you for coming here, but...". Or if you need to be beaten over the head, insert a visual minority...)
    posted by effbot at 2:44 PM on June 25, 2016 [2 favorites]


    Not to that extent, perhaps, but for example in parts of BC where there's an influx of Quebecois to work during fruit-picking season you hear some pretty nasty stuff that's not so different.
    posted by borsboom at 2:46 PM on June 25, 2016 [4 favorites]




    > What is necessary is for the average bear to have enough security and education so that votes aren't so frequently based on ignorance and fear.

    This needs to happen in a way that doesn't involve making the decision to sacrifice a great number of bears in a decision consulting everyone but those slated for the first round of culling.


    I agree with you, of course.
    posted by languagehat at 3:03 PM on June 25, 2016


    littleozy: Corbyn’s performance has been *abysmal*. He has to go.
    posted by pharm at 3:04 PM on June 25, 2016


    I shouldn't quote things I posted on Facebook, but:
    So how about this for a game plan? UK votes to leave the EU. Scotland votes to leave the UK and stay in the EU. NI votes to merge with the Republic and stay in the EU. Which leaves the new country of Englandandwales. Which applies to join the EU.
    I came to the conclusion that the new country should be called Wangland.
    posted by Grangousier at 3:11 PM on June 25, 2016 [10 favorites]


    Mod note: Coda Tronca, if you can't participate here without insulting other people, you can't participate here.
    posted by restless_nomad (staff) at 3:11 PM on June 25, 2016 [11 favorites]


    Regarding Greenwald, haven't we all come to the realization that he's just a left contrarian.

    He is a Pulitzer prize winning mainstream journalist and I did not come to that conclusion.
    posted by Coda Tronca at 3:15 PM on June 25, 2016


    You don't call your fellow citizens "immigrants" or "migrants" by default, though.

    I'm originally from Tasmania. Ask other Australians what we're like, and you'll hear some pretty familiar sentiments. Or ask Tasmanians about the impact of all the mainlanders who moved there last decade (after 9/11, when fears about international travel prompted them to do that trip to Tassie they'd always meant to do), and how they bought up houses along the state's east coast.

    We don't call people moving from state to state "immigrants", it's true. We talk about "interstate migrants". I've been both - the experiences had a fair bit in common.

    The crap the Poles get in Britain today was being dealt out to the Irish a few generations ago, even when a lot of them were from part of the UK (or, in the 19th century, when all of them were).
    posted by rory at 3:15 PM on June 25, 2016 [6 favorites]


    Jesus Christ, what did Cameron expect to happen? Talk about head up his butt, he badly miscalculated that he could win. Helluva way to blow major political gains for your party.
    posted by Brandon Blatcher at 3:20 PM on June 25, 2016



    I think the Tories have a straight majority, and I don't know what any of them would gain from voting to help remove that majority. Corrections very much welcomed.


    Tory electoral fraud could skew this majority. I think there are around 22 seats up if the investigations go badly for them. The majority is less and therefore we could see an election called. UKIP would stand to gain the most from this however and the lack of support for Labour in both the heartlands and by folk who think Corbyn isn't up to the job means a Tory/UKIP alliance and we're back where we started.
    posted by longbaugh at 3:22 PM on June 25, 2016 [1 favorite]


    From The Guardian's Paul Mason, is this just wishful thinking? I'd especially like to hear from UK Mefites.
    Britain is not a rainy, fascist island – here’s my plan for ProgrExit
    posted by CatastropheWaitress at 3:22 PM on June 25, 2016 [2 favorites]


    Leave voters -- like Trump voters -- are simply motivated by economic anxiety and we should listen to their concerns to fully understand their complicated frustrations.

    Tribalism, prejudice, and yes, hatred itself, can have complex motivations, and dismissing the opposition as a "bunch of stupid racists" is letting them win. If people truly want to give up on them then by all means, try and separate your nations between racists and non-racists and be done with it. That's not feasible? Then maybe a little understanding is necessary to move forward.
    posted by Apocryphon at 3:41 PM on June 25, 2016 [4 favorites]


    Tribalism, prejudice, and yes, hatred itself, can have complex motivations,

    And interesting expressions!

    Speaking with a Remain voter today. They thought Leave was stupid. Poles are decent people, they said. They're not the kind of immigrant we need to get rid of, they said. We need their help against the Muslims. EDL were right.

    So that's one Remain voter.
    posted by Emma May Smith at 3:45 PM on June 25, 2016 [3 favorites]


    I should add that my personal experiences of migration haven't been anywhere near as difficult as they could have been had I looked different. There's a reason Farage's "Breaking Point" poster cropped out the whitest-looking guy. Which makes people like me a useful test case: if someone thinks I'm a supposedly "good" immigrant even though I'm just as much an economic migrant taking a job that could conceivably have gone to a local, and put just as much "pressure on services", then immigration isn't what they're objecting to.

    (Sadly, I include interstate Australian migration here, and not just migration to the UK, as I would bet a shiny new plastic A$50 note that Australians of non-Anglo background who move to some of the less-multicultural areas cop all sorts of bullshit when they do.)
    posted by rory at 3:47 PM on June 25, 2016 [5 favorites]


    Not to that extent, perhaps, but for example in parts of BC where there's an influx of Quebecois to work during fruit-picking season you hear some pretty nasty stuff that's not so different.

    Yeah, that was kind of my point. That it's rather nasty.
    posted by effbot at 3:51 PM on June 25, 2016


    You don't call your fellow citizens "immigrants" or "migrants" by default, though.

    US citizen here joining in with the Canadians and Aussies to remind you that this isn't universally true. The "Californians go home"/"thanks for visiting, but please don't stay" that you'll see in Oregon (and Washington, to a lesser extent) is a bit playful most of the time, but sentiments like that are common across the country and have the potential to turn nasty rather quickly should the economy take a turn for the dire. And that's not even really factoring in the racial elements at play in many states.
    posted by a box and a stick and a string and a bear at 3:59 PM on June 25, 2016 [10 favorites]


    Greenwald is a Pulitzer prize winning mainstream journalist
    ...and that Pulitzer was not for Commentary. In fact, I put up the following caveat for all Journalist/Commentators: If they're that smart, why aren't they participating directly in politics? Op/Eds and Blogs are nice things to hide behind when your opinions turn into "big oops". Two words: Bill Kristol. That's why, especially at times like this, it's best to be most attentive to the opinions of the people with real 'skin in the game', the politicians. Even at their most self-serving, ridiculous or scary, their statements MEAN something.
    posted by oneswellfoop at 4:02 PM on June 25, 2016 [1 favorite]


    Behold, the perfect cinematic metaphor for what the U.K. just did.

    (The European Union is the white truck.)
    posted by New Frontier at 4:03 PM on June 25, 2016 [4 favorites]


    in new hampshire, vacationers from massachusetts are commonly referred to as massholes.
    posted by quonsar II: smock fishpants and the temple of foon at 4:03 PM on June 25, 2016


    Massachusetts residents are commonly referred to as massholes in many states. There's a reason for this.
    posted by a box and a stick and a string and a bear at 4:05 PM on June 25, 2016 [11 favorites]


    Yes. Pulling the country apart is just a great big reactionary "fuck you" to the powers that be. That's not a stupid reaction by idiots at all.

    To be fair, the American Revolution was a revolt over soda tax and fear of French Catholics.
    posted by Apocryphon at 4:14 PM on June 25, 2016 [2 favorites]


    Tory electoral fraud could skew this majority. I think there are around 22 seats up if the investigations go badly for them. The majority is less and therefore we could see an election called.

    Even if 22 MPs are found guilty and lose their seats its going to take a while. But its also a big if. But the Tories losing their majority doesn't have to mean an election. They could seek the support of other parties or they could form a coalition if anyone will have them, much as they expected to up the GE day in May 2015. If they had just had 22 MPs convicted then they would be looking to leave as much time as possible before the next election.
    posted by biffa at 4:17 PM on June 25, 2016


    I am sure I saw an article yesterday where the EU leaders spoke of how they were going to respond to Brexit, and it said something like they would listen to the people of Europe, be more compassionate, and that maybe there was too much austerity. I thought it was on the BBC but I can't find it now, so does anyone have a link to anything like that? Or am I conflating reading so many articles about this over the last couple of days? If anyone can link to anything I would appreciate it. (Yes, I read the "you must leave now" stuff, so I don't need you to link to that. Or Merkels comments.)

    "Strictly viewing the economics of immigration from the lens of zero sum and that for a polish immigrant to suceed a council estate individual has to go on the dole is nonsense. It is possible for both groups to economically prosper."

    This is not what has happened though. There has been over a million British people on the dole since mass immigration began in 2004, and it has never gone below a million. At one point there were almost a million young British people on the dole, many of them black, and pretty much all of them working class.

    Further (self link FPPs I have posted):

    Poor White Boys Finish Last

    Sunday Times Rich List "Wealthier than ever"

    Britain's Poorest City (FTA: "That may be only one measure of poverty, but at a time when there has been a sustained assault on living standards for everyone it is surely a difficult extreme.")

    People Borrowing Money to pay for food

    UK dividends hit new record in Q3 2012

    (Not a self FPP link)

    Recession prompted 'unprecedented' fall in wages (FTA: The IFS report comes a day after union organisation the TUC found pay in some parts of the UK had shrunk by more than 10% since the start of the downturn in 2007.)

    So as you can see, the policy of free movement has had winners and losers, as any policy does, and the winners are not the poor and the working class. Quelle surprise!

    The problem on here is that most people are middle class and have middle class jobs surrounded by other middle class people and are insulated from these sorts of issues and problems, and think anyone who talks about the issues and problems is just a racist. If the free movement has been of benefit to everyone (as the quote from upthread I quoted says) then please explain how it has benefited the poorest in the UK, those on the dole, long term unemployed, those on low wages and struggling to make ends meet. How has it improved access to services such as healthcare, housing, and education, and access to and ease of getting a job, and then a better job afterwards.

    People in this thread said "immigrants getting jobs in the UK increases the economy" (from which I assume they mean made it stronger and bigger.) Ok, so if the economy has improved and gotten bigger and stronger, how come there are millions of British people on minimum wage and/or zero hours contracts? Please note: I am aware that zero hours was a Tory policy, I am not saying immigration has caused it, what I am saying is that the idea that we all benefit equally from mass immigration is just not true.

    Further, who wanted this policy in the first place, and why? Did the poor of western Europe vote for it? No, it was a policy dictated by the rich and the corporations.. Why? So they could make money.

    So, answers on a postcard please, as they used to say. Also, shouting "you are a racist" does not win you the argument, nor does picking up on a typo and using it as some sort of lever to spout off on a rant. If you cannot definitively answer the questions I have posed, without doing that, then in my opinion you have lost the argument.

    One last thing: I lived in a shared house a few years ago, I was the only Brit in the place, everyone else was Polish (not bad for a racist lol!) When I moved in they joked "You are now living in a Polish Ghetto" - it was a bit slummy, but was double glazed and had central heating, so a warm slum. One night we sat in the kitchen, drinking and chilling, and just talking about all sorts of stuff, and the topic of immigration came up (they brought it up) and one of them said "why do you think we are here?" - I said to fill jobs, and he said "we are here so the rich can make money off our labour." And then we talked about how there is the rich who own everything and the poor who work and suffer, and were in total agreement. So maybe you could go out and ask Polish people what they think of free movement, why they think they were allowed to come here. Ask them if they think the policy was enacted to make Polish people's lives better, or was it to be used as a source of cheap labour. (And I mean Polish people doing working class jobs. If you work at a uni, don't ask the Polish Professor why he is there, it isn't really the same thing at all.)

    And finally, on a lighter note: Poland beat Switzerland on penalties in the Euros. Obviously as Metafilter's resident racist I was gutted: I was hoping they would go home! (This joke stolen from Fullerine over on the lmfsilva's Round of 16 Euros Thread. Insert "coming over here, stealing our jokes" gag here.)
    posted by marienbad at 4:19 PM on June 25, 2016 [8 favorites]


    Just had my first experience with the new racism! Went to fetch some petrol and two blokes talking about how we're rid of the Slovakians and then "it's the Pakis next".

    Okay - to get this out of the way. Leave was not racist. Grassroots Out *was*. Regardless, this is the new England. Your reasoning for exit might have been absolutely above board but this is now apparently acceptable. I ain't mad atcha but now it's time to work together to roll this back before it becomes normalised behaviour.
    posted by longbaugh at 4:19 PM on June 25, 2016 [13 favorites]


    Forgot to add this link to above comment: Young people 'feel they have nothing to live for'
    posted by marienbad at 4:22 PM on June 25, 2016 [2 favorites]


    US citizen here joining in with the Canadians and Aussies to remind you that this isn't universally true. The "Californians go home"/"thanks for visiting, but please don't stay" that you'll see in Oregon

    See also: fucking snowbirds.
    posted by ROU_Xenophobe at 4:24 PM on June 25, 2016 [1 favorite]


    I put up the following caveat for all Journalist/Commentators: If they're that smart, why aren't they participating directly in politics?

    All the journalists who attempted to consider Leave voters as something other than racists or idiots, or racist idiots, had to be dismissed on this thread, from Pilger to Greenwald, and perhaps that didn't work, so now we have 'if you're so smart why don't you run the economy?'
    posted by Coda Tronca at 4:25 PM on June 25, 2016 [8 favorites]


    This is not what has happened though. There has been over a million British people on the dole since mass immigration began in 2004, and it has never gone below a million. At one point there were almost a million young British people on the dole, many of them black, and pretty much all of them working class.

    What? Are you saying that unemployment went up in 2004? Because..um..it didn't.
    posted by howfar at 4:29 PM on June 25, 2016 [5 favorites]


    There's a reason for this.

    Stupid meaningless generalizations and stereotypes? There is a lot of that going around lately.


    No, it's because the old Massachusetts postal abbreviation was "Mass", which is like "ass" with an "m" at the beginning. Massachusetts could have the most wonderful residents in the country and they still would have been called Massholes by their neighbors.
    posted by a box and a stick and a string and a bear at 4:30 PM on June 25, 2016 [5 favorites]


    I am saying it hasn't gone down below a million in years.
    posted by marienbad at 4:30 PM on June 25, 2016


    This was a working-class revolt, but it is not a working-class victory. That’s the tragedy here.

    I was just about to post that when I noticed your link. It's Laurie Penny, and she's not happy. Lots of great quotables.

    And then this: "I’ve already had people telling me it won’t be long before a new Kristallnacht, and people like me had better go back – where? I was born in London. Perhaps the city can secede."

    ...

    At the end, a call to action: "I believe we can still be better than this. I want my country back, and it’s a country I’ve never known, and getting there will take more strength, more kindness, more resilience than this divided nation has mustered in living memory. Meanwhile, I’m putting the kettle on again. Today is a day for mourning, for retweeting sick memes and holding our loved ones close. Tomorrow – well. Tomorrow, we get to work."
    posted by effbot at 4:31 PM on June 25, 2016 [4 favorites]


    As can be seen from the graph, from 05 to 12 it is pretty much constantly going up.
    posted by marienbad at 4:32 PM on June 25, 2016


    I am saying it hasn't gone down below a million in years.

    But you linked it to immigration. But look at the figures. Unemployment tracks the performance of the economy. Do you have any data to suggest it has any connection with immigration? Because you're (at the very least) strongly implying it does.
    posted by howfar at 4:32 PM on June 25, 2016 [15 favorites]


    Young people 'feel they have nothing to live for'

    Young people voted quite decisively to Remain.

    Also there's pretty good odds the UK will end up negotiating back into freedom of movement ala Norway so Brexit might end up doing literally nothing on EU immigration.
    posted by BungaDunga at 4:33 PM on June 25, 2016 [9 favorites]


    From The Guardian's Paul Mason, is this just wishful thinking? I'd especially like to hear from UK Mefites.

    Yes, sadly. Just for starters, he's calling for Labour party unity around a leader they're currently falling over themselves to get rid of.
    posted by Dysk at 4:37 PM on June 25, 2016


    As can be seen from the graph, from 05 to 12 it is pretty much constantly going up.

    But why are you linking that to free movement of workers? So...A8 worker registration access to the job market starts in May 2004, and then a year later unemployment starts to increase. I mean, what's your evidence that this has anything to do with anything?
    posted by howfar at 4:38 PM on June 25, 2016 [1 favorite]


    Howfar - upthread someone said that immigrants getting jobs in the UK made the economy stronger/bigger. So if the economy has gotten bigger and stronger as a result of immigration, and, as you say, unemployment tracks it, why has it not gone down?
    posted by marienbad at 4:39 PM on June 25, 2016


    As can be seen from the graph, from 05 to 12 it is pretty much constantly going up.

    No. It shot up in 08 because of a global economic recession, held pretty steady until 12, and has been falling quite obviously since then. Why has unemployment been improving so dramatically in the past 4 years? Your own links don't provide any support for your anti-immigrant stance.
    posted by Mavri at 4:41 PM on June 25, 2016 [20 favorites]


    You know who almost always has freedom of movement internationally? The wealthy. You know who are easier to control and exploit if they have less freedom of movement? The working class. Whether they divide us by race or religion or nationalities or party affiliation or class, the more divided we are, the more power they have. The rich can afford to shit the pot, turn a profit and then move somewhere else.

    I can't help but believe that there are s number of people who have made or will make a huge profit off of the Brexit on the backs of the working class (who will now have fewer relocation options even if they could afford it) and who will regretfully move when everything comes crashing down.

    Watch what your government does very closely, UK. Forces are at work right now to make a few people a lot of money
    posted by Joey Michaels at 4:42 PM on June 25, 2016 [15 favorites]


    It's Always Sunny in Europe.
    posted by Talez at 4:43 PM on June 25, 2016


    upthread someone said that immigrants getting jobs in the UK made the economy stronger/bigger. So if the economy has gotten bigger and stronger as a result of immigration, and, as you say, unemployment tracks it, why has it not gone down?

    There are other factors influencing economic growth. I don't really know what else to say to you. Your argument simply isn't compelling. If I invented a new manufacturing process that increased economic growth by .01%, and the economy grew more slowly the same year due to other factors, increasing unemployment, by the strict logic of your argument, we have a reason for believing that my manufacturing process increased unemployment.
    posted by howfar at 4:47 PM on June 25, 2016 [9 favorites]


    Here is the link about the economy getting stronger.

    Mavri: It went down when immigration went down: ""When Steve Hilton left Downing Street in 2012, net immigration had actually fallen quite substantially and had got down, just after he left, to about 154,000 - not far away from the ambition I set, " he told ITV's Lorraine. "

    Ultimately, free movement is another weapon in the arsenal of the rich and poweful and their ongoing class war against the working class as they seek to disempower, impoverish and disenfranchise us.
    posted by marienbad at 4:47 PM on June 25, 2016


    Free movement is absolutely essential to international solidarity. "Socialism in one country" is no more respectable now that when Stalin thought it up 90 odd years ago.
    posted by howfar at 4:49 PM on June 25, 2016 [22 favorites]


    Howfar - upthread someone said that immigrants getting jobs in the UK made the economy stronger/bigger. So if the economy has gotten bigger and stronger as a result of immigration, and, as you say, unemployment tracks it, why has it not gone down?

    Unemployment tracks with the economy, not with immigration. The economy has not been growing consistently since 2004, but has had periods of growth (where unemployment fell) so does not track with immigration. Immigration has not solely saved the economy since 2004, no, but that is because it is not the only factor affecting the economy.
    posted by Dysk at 4:50 PM on June 25, 2016 [2 favorites]


    >: You know who almost always has freedom of movement internationally? The wealthy. You know who are easier to control and exploit if they have less freedom of movement? The working class.

    This is the biggest problem I have with so-called "free trade" agreements. Only the EU "agreement" has allowed all three forms of trade to move equally: capital, goods, and labor. Witness, for example, NAFTA: a bare slice of free movement of labor (basically a temporary skills shortage list) but wow look at those goods and money just go wherever. When a passport can be purchased for a cool quarter-million dollars (same price as my house, for scale) but I can't go to [list of countries] to take the jobs that have moved there, free trade sucks.

    I like the EU because I can go anywhere in the bloc to take a job and live and contribute.
    posted by fireoyster at 4:50 PM on June 25, 2016 [22 favorites]


    If anything, fluctuations in immigration follow the state of the economy, not the other way round - people move to countries where there are jobs available.
    posted by Dysk at 4:53 PM on June 25, 2016 [8 favorites]


    When a passport can be purchased for a cool quarter-million dollars (same price as my house, for scale) but I can't go to [list of countries] to take the jobs that have moved there, free trade sucks.

    Well yes, but if you're a factory worker and your job just moved to country X where they pay less and have worse benefits (and if it doesn't pay less or isn't in some other way worse for workers, why did they move the factory?), you're likely to be excited at the prospect of uprooting your family and chasing after it.
    posted by zachlipton at 4:54 PM on June 25, 2016 [1 favorite]


    But the point is that I still have that option. Less-than-thrilled-but-still-able is a lot better than not-an-option-because-free-trade-shipped-that-job-out-to-somewhere-I-can't-work.

    (See also: IT offshoring, training one's replacement, but can't move to India to take the job no matter how much I might want to do so.)
    posted by fireoyster at 4:56 PM on June 25, 2016 [3 favorites]


    okay I will come back tomorrow and read this, I am very tired as I was at work tonight (why yes, I do work 6 days, that's what it's like being poor and working class in the UK now) and obviously Saturday is our busiest night, so I am very tired, and arguing is not easy when your tired. Upthread someone said, when I mentioned the EU spitting its dummy out and saying we had to leave immediately: "Like, the agreement is only valid so long as the UK stays in the EU and it was invalidated by the British public who can read the agreement for themselves not some faceless "Brussels Bureaucrat" right?" Yeah, because when you are working two jobs and one of them six days a week you really want to come home and read stuff like that. Honestly, people on here have just not got a clue how hard it is for poor people in the UK, and has been for a long time now, and it just constantly gets worse, and free movement was not designed to make things better for us. If you can prove it was, please show your working. Also please answer the questions I posed in my comment above.
    posted by marienbad at 4:56 PM on June 25, 2016 [5 favorites]


    I think it's becoming clear that nobody wants to go to Brussels and trigger Article 50.

    The bleak depths of this farce are only matched by is potential to hurt entire generations.
    posted by Devonian at 4:57 PM on June 25, 2016 [19 favorites]


    All the journalists who attempted to consider Leave voters as something other than racists or idiots, or racist idiots, had to be dismissed on this thread, from Pilger to Greenwald, and perhaps that didn't work, so now we have 'if you're so smart why don't you run the economy?'
    My criticism was of ALL journalists, including the ones who called Leave voters "racists and idiots", but don't let me damage your Wall of Defensiveness. I know YOU aren't a racist or idiot, but like Americans I know who are BernieOrBust-ers and moderate Republicans dedicated to Party Unity, you are doing a stellar job of empowering racists and idiots. However small a part of the 52% of Leave voters are wearing "WE WON NOW YOU LEAVE" shirts, their influence on British Politics is booming thanks to Brexit. Please let down your shields enough to see that; I've seen similar things happen here in the U.S.ofA.

    I've been a Californian for my entire voting life and I have been frequently unhappy with (1) the direction the Federal Government has gone and (2) the effect that our system of Ballot Initiatives and other Propositions/Referendums has had on this state. As a result, I am tempted to support a #CalExit, but I dread seeing it causing a further Republican-ward shift in the rest of the United States. And I am absolutely certain that putting it on the General Ballot is the WORST IDEA EVER.

    Of course, if a split-off of Scotland is one of the results of all this, you'd better expect the two largest parties in the pared-down England for the next generation to be the Tories and the ever-more-inaccurately-named UKIP.
    posted by oneswellfoop at 4:58 PM on June 25, 2016 [5 favorites]


    I am saying it hasn't gone down below a million in years.

    Unemployment around 6.5% is literally government policy, and interest rates are set in part to maintain a certain level of unemployment. There are indeed compelling arguments that this policy benefits wealthy employers at the expense of workers by ensuring a reasonable amount of competition in the labor market, which in turn suppresses wages, but the point is that the issues are rooted in monetary policy and economics, not immigration and the EU.
    posted by zachlipton at 4:58 PM on June 25, 2016 [33 favorites]


    Honestly, people on here have just not got a clue how hard it is for poor people in the UK, and has been for a long time now, and it just constantly gets worse

    Some of us ARE poor in the UK. We know exactly how hard it is. For some of us, the country just voted to make our lives even harder.
    posted by Dysk at 5:00 PM on June 25, 2016 [49 favorites]


    Without free movement of labor you have a race to bottom as every country competes with the others to say "Hey businesses! Come here! You can treat your employees like complete garbage!". And then as soon as the next country over reduces their taxes down a half point or so all those jobs immediately vanish and go to that country until the ones next to them drop it even further and then again the jobs disappear and move on.

    I'm sorry if you don't like it, but eventually we're going to have one world government and one set of tax laws and free movement of all people etc. etc. because there's no way else it can go (assuming we don't blow ourselves up). We have the knowledge of the wider world/the technology to travel quickly and easily/communication with pretty much everyone. And trying to do anything meaningful in terms of governing or organization just isn't going to work if everything can be pulled up and moved somewhere else. Trying to isolate further now because you don't like foreigners is just pissing in the wind ultimately.
    posted by downtohisturtles at 5:01 PM on June 25, 2016 [9 favorites]


    Honestly, people on here have just not got a clue how hard it is for poor people in the UK, and has been for a long time now, and it just constantly gets worse, and free movement was not designed to make things better for us

    I spent 2002 - 2010 working in jobs at or within £1 of the minimum wage. I currently work exclusively for people on very low incomes or state benefits. Please don't make assumptions about my experiences of poverty.
    posted by howfar at 5:02 PM on June 25, 2016 [29 favorites]


    Really interesting comment here re: the political machinations of Brexit. Basically, Boris and Gove are finished in a damned if they do/damned if they don't type of scenario. The next few months should be interesting!
    posted by (Arsenio) Hall and (Warren) Oates at 5:03 PM on June 25, 2016 [10 favorites]


    Really interesting comment here

    Linked earlier in one of the man of twists and turns' excellent link dumps (lots of good stuff in those).
    posted by effbot at 5:16 PM on June 25, 2016 [3 favorites]




    Hilary Benn sacked.
    posted by tinkletown at 5:36 PM on June 25, 2016 [2 favorites]


    Ben Bradshaw calling for the Shadow Cabinet to "act to save the Party". I note that Jess Phillips (who has been a deeply unimpressive MP, I must say) has retweeted - I imagine other Labour MPs will be joining in.
    posted by howfar at 5:44 PM on June 25, 2016 [2 favorites]


    Interesting you should say that, she's seems to be very well liked, although I find her a bit attention-seeking (which, after the likes of Boris or Neil Hamilton, tends to set alarms off for me).
    posted by Grangousier at 5:46 PM on June 25, 2016


    And, at this point, I think all but the most delusional must now accept that the dream of Lexit was utter, utter nonsense.
    posted by howfar at 5:46 PM on June 25, 2016 [8 favorites]


    I thought Corbyn was popular with the rank and file but not popular with the party elite?

    I would hate to feel like this was some kind of opportunistic thing to get him out.
    posted by Frowner at 5:52 PM on June 25, 2016


    Re: the poisoned chalice thing. It's really hard to see how the baby can be unsplit at this point. If the UK doesn't trigger Article 50, they're staying in at the sufferance of the 27 other EU nations who's face they just majorly spat in and who are actively looking for a force out now. The only way might be for new elections and the Tory government to get wiped out on an explicit campaign rally to overturn Brexit, which judging from our UK members' descriptions of the Labor oppositon doesn't sound all that likely. Even if that was successful, the UK's standing and credibility within the EU will have taken a permanent nosedive. The rest of the continent can't trust anything they say from this point forward, because the threat of walking away again hangs over every discussion.
    posted by T.D. Strange at 5:54 PM on June 25, 2016 [2 favorites]


    And, at this point, I think all but the most delusional must now accept that the dream of Lexit was utter, utter nonsense.

    Cameron has resigned. Johnson and Gove are paralyzed by fear. I guess we should have foreseen that at the moment of their foe's weakness the Left would respond with infighting.
    posted by Emma May Smith at 5:55 PM on June 25, 2016 [17 favorites]


    I thought Corbyn was popular with the rank and file but not popular with the party elite?

    They're panicking because their internal polling is horrible, and with the threat of a snap election in a few months (and Scotland on the way out) they can no longer spend four years working on getting things back on track.
    posted by effbot at 6:03 PM on June 25, 2016 [1 favorite]


    Rumour is that Gideon has gone, having sounded out the chances of a leadership run(!) and being swiftly advised of his chances thereof.
    posted by Devonian at 6:04 PM on June 25, 2016 [1 favorite]


    Cameron has resigned. Johnson and Gove are paralyzed by fear. I guess we should have foreseen that at the moment of their foe's weakness the Left would respond with infighting.

    All of this completely mirrors the self-destruction of the weak-willed, reactionary-coddling GOP establishment, and its current eclipsing by said reactionaries both in the legislature and in the running for president. I wonder how many countries is the same process repeating in? How many other eras this has also taken place?
    posted by Apocryphon at 6:05 PM on June 25, 2016 [3 favorites]


    ^I put up the following caveat for all Journalist/Commentators: If they're that smart, why aren't they participating directly in politics?
    Greenwald lives in Rio de Janeiro. He is highly involved in local politics through his partner David Miranda who has just been selected to be a precandidate of PSOL for the forthcoming elections)
    .
    posted by adamvasco at 6:05 PM on June 25, 2016 [3 favorites]


    ^I put up the following caveat for all Journalist/Commentators: If they're that smart, why aren't they participating directly in politics?

    Johnson and Gove are the worst journalist politicians you can imagine: pundits who have prospered by treating public life as a game. Here is how they play it. They grab media attention by blaring out a big, dramatic thought. An institution is failing? Close it. A public figure blunders? Sack him. They move from journalism to politics, but carry on as before. When presented with a bureaucratic EU that sends us too many immigrants, they say the answer is simple, as media answers must be. Leave. Now. Then all will be well.

    — There are liars and then there’s Boris Johnson and Michael Gove
    posted by My Dad at 6:09 PM on June 25, 2016 [5 favorites]


    Tony Judt’s 1996 book A Grand Illusion? An Essay on Europe (cited in the Guardian yesterday) has some prescient thoughts that seem relevant to the Brexit referendum:

    If “Europe” stands for the winners, the wealthy regions and subregions of existing states, who speaks for the losers—the “south,” the poor, linguistically, educationally, or culturally disadvantaged, underprivileged, or despised Europeans who don’t live in golden triangles along vanished frontiers and for whom “Brussels” is at best an administrative abstraction, at worst a politically targeted object of fear and loathing? The risk is that what remains to these Europeans is the “nation,” or, more precisely, nationalism. This is not the same as the national separatism of Catalans or the regional self-advancement of Lombards; it is about preserving the nineteenth-century state as a defense against change, not about breaking it up in favor of smaller units for which change, in association with a larger, transnational unit, is attractive…

    One way or another, the state is likely to be needed in the future. The conventional nation-state is going to be much sought after in the next few years to assist in the preservation of the social fabric, whether by coercion or redistributive intervention, however unpopular this may be in the privileged “super-regions.” It is not only in former Communist states that the self-regulating virtues of the unrestricted market appear to have been oversung. The much-maligned “interventionist state” may have been prematurely consigned to the dustbin of history; it might be better not to partition, decentralize, or reduce its capacities too much and too soon. The years after World War II saw the dramatic restoration of the social and economic functions of nation-states in Western Europe, and this process was aided by the “Europeanizing” of their problems; the years after 1989 will require a rehabilitation of the nation-state’s political and cultural credibility if Europe itself is to remain afloat.


    I am sure Judt would deplore Brexit, but I also think he would understand and perhaps even sympathize with the thoughts of the Brexiters much more than many of the commentators here. The Brexiters are not crazy to recognize that they are the losers of a new European order, and that the opening of financial and human borders has not been to their advantage (even the Financial Times admits that “there is a small negative effect of migration on the wages of low-skilled workers”); furthermore, that the nation-state is realistically the only entity capable or even potentially willing to support them. One need not be a racist to recognize that the European project has created losers just as much as winners, and it’s not crazy to try to understand their motives instead of simply dismissing them.
    posted by crazy with stars at 6:10 PM on June 25, 2016 [17 favorites]


    I think the PLP has fucked up badly over the last year. But I don't see how, in good conscience, I'll be able to vote for Corbyn (again) in the next leadership election. I think his performance has been acceptable, given the constraints he's been working under, but he's dead in the water now. He can't lead this party, and I hope that he will step aside. Because if he runs again and wins then the Labour Party will split and we're fucked six ways from Tuesday.
    posted by howfar at 6:11 PM on June 25, 2016 [1 favorite]


    That FT link about 'negative effects' is behind a paywall but if you are referring to the Bank of England study - then it is worth spelling out what 'small' means


    How small is small? The impact of immigration on UK wages

    The first thing to note is that a 10 percentage point rise in the proportion of migrants working in a sector – the amount needed to generate the “nearly 2 percent” wage impact is very large. Indeed, it is larger than the entire rise observed since the 2004-06 period in the semi/unskilled services sector, which is about 7 percentage points.

    Moreover the estimated impact is partly simply a compositional one – reflecting the fact that migrants earn less, as well as the impact on native wages. Allowing for this, we can calculate that the new paper implies that the impact of migration on the wages of the UK-born in this sector since 2004 has been about 1 percent, over a period of 8 years. With average wages in this sector of about £8 an hour, that amounts to a reduction in annual pay rises of about a penny an hour.

    Now 1 percent, even over 8 years, is not nothing, especially to relatively low paid workers. But it stretches credulity to suggest that other things – the level of the minimum wage, the decline in trade union power, technological and industrial change – have not had far bigger impacts on pay in these sectors.

    In other words, the research confirms what we already thought. Immigration may have some, small, negative impact on wages for some low-paid workers. But the idea that immigration is the main or even a moderately important driver of low pay is simply not supported by the available evidence.

    posted by Flitcraft at 6:34 PM on June 25, 2016 [37 favorites]




    Rumour is that Gideon has gone

    Will resign on Monday, it seems.

    His Twitter is silent, the latest update is a retweet of one from one of his colleagues, a tweet that made me smile: "Today's a good day to say I'm in a happy same sex relationship, I campaigned for Stronger In but sometimes you're better off out! #Pride2016"
    posted by effbot at 6:39 PM on June 25, 2016 [4 favorites]








    Also via Twitter: Ian Paisley tells NI residents to get an Irish passport if they can.

    (well, Ian Paisley Jr., but that's confusing enough).
    posted by effbot at 7:13 PM on June 25, 2016 [5 favorites]




    Brexit was fueled by irrational xenophobia, not real economic grievances
    Torsten Bell, director of the UK economic think tank Resolution Foundation, set out to test the hypothesis that "areas hardest hit by the financial crisis, or those where migration is said to have held down wages, voted heavily to leave."

    In other words, he tested the exact argument the pro-Leave camp is making: that people who voted to leave made a rational decision based on the real economic effects they’ve suffered from the rise in immigration. If that were the case, you’d expect places that have gotten poorer in the past decade (when mass migration took off) would have been the places that voted most heavily to leave the EU.

    But that’s not what Bell found. In fact, he found no correlation at all between areas where wages have fallen since 2002 and the share of votes for Leave in the referendum [...]

    Another point. Support for staying in the EU was concentrated among the UK’s young, whose wages were most hurt during after 2008 recession. Support for leave was concentrated among older Britons, who had less reason to fear wage competition from immigrants.

    So there are lots of reasons to be skeptical that British voters’ concerns about immigration are a rational response to the effect immigration is having on the economy. Instead, it seems, British opposition to immigration stems from a long-lasting, deep-seated hostility towards new people coming into their country.
    posted by tonycpsu at 7:17 PM on June 25, 2016 [45 favorites]




    Democratically, the basic problem is this: there is no way a 51.9% share of a 72.2% turnout (so ~37.5% of voters) provides a remotely comfortable mandate for major constitutional change.

    It's the worst possible result - a 3.8% margin of victory which is neither quite small enough to easily ignore, nor quite large enough to take as an actual mandate.

    1.27 million votes is still a Big Number, though.

    Compare 1975, when the referendum on whether the UK should join the then EEC was won by 67.2% to 32.8%. Some may not have liked it but no-one could argue with that result. Turnout slightly smaller than this time, but still a clear answer to the question.

    This time it's perfectly reasonable to say 'it's about 50/50 and we not only shouldn't but can't and mustn't do anything drastic'. Massive constitutional change of this sort, if it must be taken to referendum, should require a clear majority. Something like 60-65%. That doesn't seem unreasonable, and it is astonishing to me that something like this wasn't put in place in the Political Parties, Elections and Referendums Act 2000.

    Meanwhile, drastic things have already been done, such as the bloody thing having happened in the first place, the perfectly reasonable - if essentially meaningless so far - EU response that we in the UK can fuck off as quickly as possible please before we do any more damage, and the utterly fucking terrifying open racism of so very much of the Leave campaign and the Leave support.

    Of course not all Leave voters have done so on the back of racism. But they have all done so in league with it. I have friends who voted Leave who do not yet realise this and who may never realise this. These are by and large not people who think about politics much and if I haven't raised the point with them it is because I know they will get defensive and start defending the idea of voting along with the fascists when they happen to agree with a tiny part of what they are all voting for. And that is not an argument which will go anywhere helpful.

    I also have far too many friends of friends who have turned out unexpectedly to have openly voted Leave because they actually turn out to think there are too many immigrants in this country. Those are not friends of mine, and it has been terrifying to me - as a third generation immigrant myself - to see first-hand how fucking easy it is for demagogues to get traction among people who don't generally care much for politics and stir up the very worst in them.

    Then there's the Lexit crowd, precisely none of whom have provided any justification for going along with the fascists. Because there is none and can be none.

    And finally, the people who Laurie Penny mentions in her fine article, linked above and again here, where she says 'when all you have is a hammer, all problems start looking like David Cameron's face'. Which is all very well, but also lurches into the territory of oh, these poor people are so fucked, you can't possibly expect them to understand complex things like politics. And here's me thinking that the Labour movement was supposed to be all about people who were so fucked they had no choice but to get a very fucking good understanding of politics PDQ.

    Which it used to be, but hasn't been for too long.

    Obviously it's completely crazy talk but if the Labour movement actually made some kind of effort to connect there it might just gain some traction. Instead everyone wants to knife Corbyn because of unpleasant things he said about their mate in 1994 or whatever else their problem with him may be. Over here in the Green party we're far too busy hugging trees and thinking about the planet to bother with that kind of shit, but someone urgently needs to deal with the fact that UKIP are moving in and need to be confronted, directly, at grass-roots, with a better and non-shit alternative.

    And the vote was *so* close. If they'd extended the franchise to 16-18s we wouldn't be having this conversation, because it would have been 52-48 the other way: in referenda on major change you need a clear majority in favour to proceed; anything else means you don't. The tiny majority in favour - what we have - is the nightmare no-one wins result.
    posted by motty at 8:26 PM on June 25, 2016 [34 favorites]


    tonycpsu, thanks for that article. This line struck me when I read it:

    They see immigrants around them, and they start looking for ways to prevent more from coming in. It’s not about assessing the harm immigrants are doing to Britain; it’s about being terrified that they’re changing the "character" of Britain to be more "foreign."

    There's something important in this about post-nationalism and culture-- and I'm not sure it's simply bigotry. There's something in the stories we tell ourselves about national pride and our own role in national development. It goes something like people are willing to be poor in a Great Nation, where a government makes them feel as though the greatness of the nation is big enough to compensate for individual circumstance. But when the nationhood itself becomes diluted then the personal poverty has no larger meaning. Then do you face the reality that your poverty was never inevitable? Or do you attack the forces you perceive as responsible for the dilution?
    posted by frumiousb at 8:32 PM on June 25, 2016 [8 favorites]


    Really interesting comment here re: the political machinations of Brexit. Basically, Boris and Gove are finished in a damned if they do/damned if they don't type of scenario.

    It sure is a very interesting comment (here it is in the original thread) but sadly it doesn’t seem to take into account the EU terms and the European reaction and the existence of those other 27 countries. It’s been made clear that no one in Europe is inclined to give the Tories all the special extra time in the world for yet more machinations to avoid the consequences of playing with fire.

    See some of the replies in that thread:
    "The decision OUT has been accepted by the other nations, and no wonder, after all the abuse we've been sending their way. The UK no longer controls our destiny. They're deciding our exit terms."

    "This situation is unacceptable. Such prevarication harms the entire economy of Europe through uncertainty. We cannot be held hostage for domestic political games in the disUK.
    Trigger the damn article and get out. You had your stupid vote."

    "They have to - the EU is calling their bluff very forcibly by basically saying come on then, let's get cracking with Brexit."

    "The Lisbon Treaty says negotiations begin when Article 50 is triggered. The Lisbon Treaty will not be changed because we have made a cretinous decision we are beginning to regret. The EU is not going to say, 'Okay, let's sit down and start the negotiations while you see if you like the look of them and decide what you want to do.'"

    "Interesting, but ultimately irrelevant. We’re out; Europe has had enough of us fucking around and won’t have us back. If we don’t set the official wheels in motion soon, they’ll do it for us*. This theory may be right, but if so all it offers us is the satisfaction that those who led us to this point will have their careers ruined as a result."
    * Or something like that at least:
    The president of the European parliament, Martin Schulz, told the Guardian that EU lawyers were studying whether it was possible to speed up the triggering of article 50.

    He said it was difficult to accept that “a whole continent is taken hostage because of an internal fight in the Tory party”, adding that he doubted the timing of article 50 was down to the UK alone.

    “We have to take note of this unilateral declaration that they want to wait until October, but that must not be the last word,” he said.
    All my sympathy to other EU citizens in the UK and Brits living in the EU and all those of any nationality who will suffer the consequences and the nationalistic hatred coming out of this. Hope this is not going to be the complete catastrophe it sounds like today.
    posted by bitteschoen at 8:36 PM on June 25, 2016 [6 favorites]


    Merkel is pushing for not rushing the process, so it isn't quite no one in Europe inclined to give the Tories time.

    Everyone also seems to have forgotten the potential legal challenges on the basis of the Good Friday agreement and the articles of Scottish devolution. There is absolutely no way this isn't going to drag out for a long long time yet.
    posted by Dysk at 8:49 PM on June 25, 2016 [5 favorites]


    To the Leave supporters here, just one basic question: in practical terms, how do you want trade relations with Europe to be? As far as I can see, there exactly five options:
    1) Pre-vote status-quo: In EU, but with "special" rules negotiated in Feb. (Now invalidated)
    2) Pre-negotiations status-quo (as in last year)
    3) EEA, like Norway
    4) FTA like Canada
    5) None, which would mean WTO.

    The first three involve free movement of labour. My sense is that the Brexit Tories are now gunning for #3. Boris Johnson made some noises about getting #4, but I don't think it's possible. Which would leave 5) WTO, but I don't see how that's beneficial, either from a left wing or a right wing perspective.
    posted by the cydonian at 8:49 PM on June 25, 2016


    The reality is the Britain pretty much had it as good as they are going to get under the EU (or any other scenario).

    EU probably want the UK issue solved quickly to settle markets and not undermine the TTIP negotiations and you can pretty much guarantee that the EU is willing to lose the UK at least temporarily to secure TTIP. When the UK comes crawling back and they will the UK has basically lost all it's bargaining power.

    The reality is the threat of Brexit was more powerful than actually going through with the threat. Now that the UK has gone through with the threat all of the power basically shifts back to Brussels who can more or less call the Tory bluff.

    What's interesting is that immigration in the UK was a strong political driver but actually taking steps to curtail immigration actually hurts the Tories because it will also hurt the economy to exit the EU. I don't think there was any real understanding of what to do if leave actually won because you don't really expect the majority of Britons to be willing to drive the economy off of a cliff.
    posted by vuron at 9:11 PM on June 25, 2016 [3 favorites]


    Also via Twitter: Ian Paisley tells NI residents to get an Irish passport if they can.

    What an absolute fucking toolbag. He can get (has got?) an Irish passport so he's insulated from any "trapped in the UK" bullshit if things go south and voted leave. What an absolute cockstain.
    posted by Talez at 9:13 PM on June 25, 2016 [5 favorites]




    What exactly is there to study about Article 50? It seems to me that the only way anyone could think that leaving is already a done deal is if one takes the referendum to be equivalent to the UK notifying the European Council of its intention to withdraw, as required by Paragraph 2 of Article 50. But that can't be right, since the referendum was explicitly non-binding, and the actual government of the UK, i.e. the member state, has not notified the European Council that it intends to withdraw. And even if you went to a metaphysical argument that the people of the UK constitute the UK for the purposes of Article 50, you would have a hard time arguing that the UK has notified the European Council of an intention to withdraw, since, in the first place -- as many here have already pointed out -- the percentage of all eligible voters who voted for Leave is less than 50%, and in the second place, the people who voted didn't send or say anything to the European Council. They said something to the UK's parliament. Right?

    Could someone explain what is supposed to be complicated here?

    Also, supposing the EU wants to speed up the triggering of Article 50 and the UK wants to take its time, what is the relevant judicial body (if any -- maybe the European Parliament?) that would decide the matter?
    posted by Jonathan Livengood at 9:16 PM on June 25, 2016


    Question (and I am completely serious) regarding the framing of the debate: If more media had used "Bremain" instead of "Brexit" to refer to the referendum, would things have turned out differently?
    posted by dhens at 9:20 PM on June 25, 2016 [5 favorites]


    If more media had used "Bremain" instead of "Brexit" to refer to the referendum, would things have turned out differently?

    I doubt it. First thing that comes to mind is "cremains."
    posted by Miko at 9:23 PM on June 25, 2016 [1 favorite]


    Could someone explain what is supposed to be complicated here?

    OK. So let's say you're building a ship. Someone hands you a ship building manual. In it are written instructions:

    Step 1) Get plans
    Step 2) Gather materials
    Step 3) Build the ship

    That's the rough equivalent of what paragraph 2 of article 50 says about someone leaving the EU. Nobody knows what can or cannot be done as part of leaving the EU. There's no written process, nobody has any idea what they can do that won't conflict with existing laws and treaties and nobody has the faintest fucking clue of even what the UK-EU relationship will look like or what both sides even want it to look like in two years.

    Also, supposing the EU wants to speed up the triggering of Article 50 and the UK wants to take its time, what is the relevant judicial body (if any -- maybe the European Parliament?) that would decide the matter?

    That would be the European Court of Justice.
    posted by Talez at 9:30 PM on June 25, 2016


    I don't understand why the EU spokesperson came out minutes after the vote was announced and all but said, "well, fuck you too", by announcing that the vote nullified the Feb treaty. That was the most inflammatory thing Brussels could have done, both diplomatically and economically. I'm no international trade lawyer, but I can't seem to find any way that a treaty is torn asunder by a non-binding referendum. Do EU spokespersons not understand that this type of bully rhetoric plays right into the hands of the far right like ukip and le pen?

    It would have cost Brussels nothing to express sadness, and then given things chance to shake out. Instead, they decided to play the "we will show everyone what happens if you don't vote the way we want you to vote" card, which just fuels the narrative that the EU gives not a rat's ass about actual people, but only businesses and the ruling elite.

    Whether the UK stays or goes, how the vote impacts Scotland and Ireland, how it all ravels or unravels wasn't going to be determined by this referendum, and by jumping into the fight like a patriarchal schoolmaster with a hard on for whipping retralcicant children it seems like they just muddied the water and made it harder for everyone.
    posted by SecretAgentSockpuppet at 9:40 PM on June 25, 2016 [10 favorites]


    will someone explain to a yank why article 50 exists at all? if there's no mechanism for leaving the eu, isn't there more of an incentive to make it work - ie, negotiate, compromise, etc? sorry if this is a super naive question.
    posted by fingers_of_fire at 9:42 PM on June 25, 2016


    a) Fairly sure that one of the clauses of the Feb treaty stated clearly that a 'LEAVE' vote in the referendum would nullify it.

    b) Article 50 *is* the mechanism for leaving the EU. It has never been invoked and it is deliberately a bit vague on constitutional detail as each country would have its own different constitutional mechanism for triggering it.
    posted by motty at 9:45 PM on June 25, 2016 [3 favorites]


    That's the rough equivalent of what paragraph 2 of article 50 says about someone leaving the EU. Nobody knows what can or cannot be done as part of leaving the EU. There's no written process, nobody has any idea what they can do that won't conflict with existing laws and treaties and nobody has the faintest fucking clue of even what the UK-EU relationship will look like or what both sides even want it to look like in two years.

    Right. I get that. Withdrawal will be extremely complicated and fraught and there are no maps here. What I don't get is this bit from an earlier comment:
    The president of the European parliament, Martin Schulz, told the Guardian that EU lawyers were studying whether it was possible to speed up the triggering of article 50.
    What I take to be obvious (and hence, not requiring any study) is that there is no such mechanism to "speed up the triggering of Article 50" and that the UK has not actually done what is required by Article 50 in order to withdraw or to initiate withdrawal. Am I missing something here?
    posted by Jonathan Livengood at 9:45 PM on June 25, 2016


    Yes, the UK has not yet officially triggered Article 50. That was the big news on Friday, when Cameron didn't trigger it. The David Allen Green feed on Twitter is extremely useful and clear on this point (as indeed he always is when it comes to law and the UK).
    posted by motty at 9:49 PM on June 25, 2016 [1 favorite]


    About that "change in national character" thing. That's one of the first reactions I saw post results, that a nation can recover from economic problems, but "can't regain its national identity once it is lost." And my only reaction was "what the hell does that even MEAN?" As an American that just sounds like "too many brown people" to me. I mean, I consume a lot of UK media, so I feel like I'm not entirely clueless but seriously is there some kind of "English identity" that actually exists and represents more than a minority of Britains? (And that is actually under threat, I suppose being part B.)

    Cause anyone who tries to say anything equivalent here is VERY definitely dogwhistling and what they mean isn't "American" but "white." I realize our cultures do have some fundamental differences, because I think diversity and "the melting pot" is a core part of what American means.
    posted by threeturtles at 9:51 PM on June 25, 2016 [9 favorites]


    David Allen Green (aka Jack of Kent) blog post on Article 50.
    posted by motty at 9:55 PM on June 25, 2016 [1 favorite]


    motty - i understand that article 50 is the mechanism for leaving the eu. what i'm asking is - why was it included at all? i guess i'm looking for a parallel to secession in the us - when slave states tried to leave the union it was clearly illegal and gave the president all the grounds he needed to respond militarily.

    maybe a better analogy is a pre-nup. doesn't leave you with a sense of trust that the partnership will last. what am i missing?
    posted by fingers_of_fire at 9:57 PM on June 25, 2016


    That Vox article quoted above has been getting a lot of attention here and elsewhere, but when I read the quote above I was a little confused since it didn't match quite match my memory.

    It turns out Zack Beauchamp at Vox seems to have written three separate posts on three separate days, each with similar titles making similar points, but each with entirely different content and evidence (and all are still up and link to each other, so they aren't revisions in any sense):

    Brexit isn’t about economics. It’s about xenophobia (6/23).
    Brexit is terrifying — and no, not because of the economics (6/24).
    Brexit was fueled by irrational xenophobia, not real economic grievances (6/25).

    Naturally, the third makes the strongest point, in part due to data cited from a short post by Torsten Bell on 6/24. But oddly, although the last two Vox posts both cite Bell's fairly short post, they include different graphs from it. The final Vox post includes Bell's graph showing the non-correlation between wage changes in the last decade and the Leave vote -- ie, as Beauchamp spells out and tonycpsu emphasizes above, it's not economics, it's xenophobia. But the previous Vox post shows a different Bell graph, illustrating the strong negative correlation between wages and Leave votes (not wage change as in the first, but absolute wage levels). In this earlier Vox post, commenting on this strong negative relationship, Beauchamp writes:
    According to Bell, these lower-income areas aren’t places that lost out recently due to the financial crisis. It’s about a legacy of poverty and inequality. "The shape of our long-lasting and deeply entrenched national geographical inequality that drove differences in voting patterns," he writes.

    These people had little reason to believe Britain’s status quo was benefiting them. They had no reason to restrain their fear and angst at seeing foreigners and no resources for understanding the way in which immigration benefited the UK as a whole. They also had no reason to trust UK or EU elites, or their dire warnings of impending economic doom, given their catastrophic mismanagement of the 2008 financial collapse and the eurozone crisis.

    Instead, they saw more and more foreigners coming into the country and understood it as a threat to their way of life. Fear of foreigners is deeply ingrained in British national culture, as it is almost everywhere. Polling data shows high levels of hostility to immigrants going back decades, and mass immigration brought it to the fore.
    This earlier account of what was going on in Bell's data was thoroughly changed from the second to third Vox post, bringing the content into better accord with the titles and their overall point that economics had nothing to do with it, by dropping the wage/vote chart in favor of the wage-change/vote chart.

    So if Beauchamp has selected and changed his cited data to make his point, what then did Bell himself intend with his post that included both the non-relation between wage change and Brexit, and the strong negative relation between wage levels and Brexit? Bell writes:
    So it’s not the unequal impact of the recent recession driving voting patterns – or indeed as some argue the impact of migration driving down wages in some areas. Instead, in so far as economics drove voters’ behaviour last night, it is areas that are, and have been for some time, poorer. Or to put it another way, it’s the shape of our long lasting and deeply entrenched national geographical inequality that drove differences in voting patterns.

    The legacy of increased national inequality in the 1980s, the heavy concentration of those costs in certain areas, and our collective failure to address it has more to say about what happened last night than shorter term considerations from the financial crisis or changed migration flows.

    Those looking to draw lessons for the future should therefore focus on some of our underlying failures – ones which we should be addressing in or out of the EU and which require us to rethink the ease with which a flexible, globalised economy can generate prosperity that is widely shared.
    This is, unsurprisingly, more consistent with the second Vox post than the third. Yes, immigration has no real economic bearing on anything, and yes, Brexit will by almost all accounts simply make things worse; but although the titles of the three Vox posts are correct inasmuch as they conclude that xenophobia is the proximate cause and that wage changes in the last decade have no connection to Brexit votes, the Vox posts are incorrect to conclude (over and over) that Brexit "isn't about economics" or that the Leave vote is unrelated to "real economic grievances." Nor are these well-shared posts correct in implying that the two are in opposition. As Bell points out (and as Beauchamp pointed out before he streamlined his story), the clear pattern is that poorer areas with low wages voted to Leave. This doesn't mean that these people were necessarily thinking about wage economics in deciding their vote -- arguably, the long-term poverty leads to irrational xenophobia which in turn affects the Brexit vote -- but this story is far from saying that economics has nothing to do with it. The strong correlation between income and Brexit vote shows precisely the opposite: economics has quite a lot to do with it, albeit perhaps via the mediation of xenophobia. And as Bell and others argue, since xenophobia is hard to directly counter, at least as important would be to target the underlying economic problems that lead the impoverished to become bigots.

    (Also, as if this needs to be said again around here, beware of Vox.)
    posted by chortly at 10:05 PM on June 25, 2016 [23 favorites]


    That is an interesting question, fingers_of_fire, and I have *no* idea which country or countries drafted article 50 or pressed for its inclusion. But if I had to guess I'd point straight downwards to the ground on which I am currently standing (sitting) ie the UK.

    On which note, Yes, Minister.
    posted by motty at 10:05 PM on June 25, 2016 [5 favorites]


    Isn't the easy answer to the "why did they allow countries to leave" question that these are all sovereign nations working together as part of a larger union, whereas the US is a single sovereign state? I don't know how many takers there would have been for an EU that answered the "what if we want out" question with "well, the union will respond militarily."
    posted by tonycpsu at 10:12 PM on June 25, 2016 [8 favorites]


    More Yes Minster

    And who can forget the EuroSausage (emulsified high fat offal tube)?
    posted by zachlipton at 10:17 PM on June 25, 2016 [3 favorites]


    Isn't the easy answer to the "why did they allow countries to leave" question that these are all sovereign nations working together as part of a larger union, whereas the US is a single sovereign state? I don't know how many takers there would have been for an EU that answered the "what if we want out" question with "well, the union will respond militarily."

    Sure, but all the States were sovereign too at one point, and theoretically still are, the idea of "dual sovereignty" is still woven into US federalism, and if you asked the same question of the States in 1830-ish, you probably would have gotten similar attitudes to the EU member countries today.
    posted by T.D. Strange at 10:37 PM on June 25, 2016 [5 favorites]


    But there is no "dual sovereignty" as a matter of international law when it comes to the EU. It acts like a sovereign in certain ways, but it really isn't one. The EU is the product of a series of international treaties. Article 50 is not a section of a constitution; it's part of the Treaty of Lisbon. Countries enter into treaties and sometimes they want out of them. The response to backing out of a treaty can be anything from a shrug to total war. Article 50 provides a bare minimum framework for what happens if you want out of the EU treaties: everybody else tries to figure out what the hell to do with you, and if there's no agreement on that in two years, you're still out.

    To put it another way, there is plenty of customary precedent for sovereign nations using force in an attempt to prevent portions of their country from seceding, but no real instances where a country has been forced to remain in an international organization against its will. Nor is it clear how an EU one could never leave would actually work. The EU has no army of its own; what would it do if a member unilaterally decides to start doing non-EU things like refuse free movement or impose duties on EU imports or manufacture non-compliant pillows or whatever?
    posted by zachlipton at 11:05 PM on June 25, 2016 [3 favorites]


    About that "change in national character" thing. That's one of the first reactions I saw post results, that a nation can recover from economic problems, but "can't regain its national identity once it is lost." And my only reaction was "what the hell does that even MEAN?" As an American that just sounds like "too many brown people" to me. I mean, I consume a lot of UK media, so I feel like I'm not entirely clueless but seriously is there some kind of "English identity" that actually exists and represents more than a minority of Britains? (And that is actually under threat, I suppose being part B.)

    You know, I've actually been thinking about this a lot, ever since I read an article from a day or two ago talking about how young people have more of a "European Identity" than a "British Identity", and why that meant this was more of a blow to them, and why they voted overwhelmingly for Remain. And then I look at how the elderly votes went overwhelmingly for "Leave", and I wonder if those two facts are related.

    I also consume a lot of UK media, but from the weird perspective of mostly stuff from around 1780-1960, and I can say that throughout all of those years at least, the idea of a national British character is practically a character in each novel or work. It's woven through every strand in a way that, say, American media from the same time period is not. The idea of "Sleepy England", what it meant to be a "British Gentleman" - from an outsider, looking in, it practically hits you over the head every time you open the books. And it's not just 'compared to brown people' - it's specifically English. There's heavy xenophobia, but it doesn't seem to be race-based xenophobia at all. It's all about "Britishness" - the way you acted and dressed and what you grew up doing. It's constantly suspicious even of British people who went and lived elsewhere and were then subject to "foreign ways."

    And I wonder if that is part of this - if part of it was seeing young Britons become more cosmopolitan, and nobody really caring about that "Britishness" so much as what it meant to be "European". And worrying about what that meant for Britain on the whole. Wanting to still find a way to get back to the past when that was more universally considered and accepted, not really wanting to be one tiny part of a larger whole - wanting to be the biggest fish, even if it meant in only the tiniest sea.
    posted by corb at 11:17 PM on June 25, 2016 [25 favorites]


    @corb If like me you grew up in the UK in the last few decades and consumed the day-to-day humdrum BBC/ITV/C4 media, you'd see that there has always been a LOT of doubt about what it means to "Be British". There's a lot of tension between the kind of isolationist, Rule Britannia (and its flipside, Little England) sentiment you describe and a more progressive multiculturalism. Largely, from my perspective, that has been about considering brown people as "English"- Caribbean and South Asian immigrants who arrived in the late 20th century have been fully accepted in to a notion of "Britain" now. See Nadia Hussein winning Great British Bake Off last year.

    The failure has been to widen that perspective to include other peoples and races- namely Eastern Europeans and Middle Eastern Muslims. It is absolutely a racial issue and it's all about who is seen as an acceptable "other". One would hope that over time a changing face of Britain could come to include these groups as it eventually did with e.g. Caribbeans (they had a fucking awful time of it in the beginning after all). I think the difference now for those of a xenophobic bent is that they feel like the EU was forcing Britain to accept people that "we" don't "want", whereas earlier waves of immigration had still some notion of idk, independence or something. Also the point that many people were coming from former colonies so always had some connection to Britishness (even in an awful way), whereas immigrants now are very much an unknown and perceived as hostile. Give people a way of feeling like they can stop the corrosion of a national identity that's always been very precarious and nebulous and it's hard to resist. After all, if there's little to actually pin an identity on positively, doing it negatively by exclusion is a good way to make it seem stronger. We don't know what it is to be British, but we know what and who it isn't.

    For those parts of the union who DO have a stronger identity (Scotland), it's easier to be accommodating of otherness. Letting other people in isn't seen as diminishing Scottishness the way it does Englishness.

    (Personally I don't feel British or European- I feel like an internet denizen which largely means USian, but that's a whole nother story.)
    posted by mymbleth at 11:50 PM on June 25, 2016 [19 favorites]


    This interview with Alastair Campbell is pretty interesting.
    Like him the point at which I facepalm about the leave voters is the people they have chosen to align themselves with. Farage is an ex commodity broking MEP who is literally married to an immigrant bemoaning the finance industry, Europe and immigration. The world's greatest troll. Throughout the world the working classes are aligning themselves with leaders who are quite literally their enemy.

    The point at which I diverge from the majority of commentators is the idea that it is ignorance which brings them to this point; I believe it is desperation. They have no other options. Voting for Blairite Labour or UKIP has no appreciable difference to their lives than voting Tory does to the "left-wing" middle-classes calling for London independence. The NHS is already fucked in their town. Austerity came a long time ago but it was called deprivation.

    Why do I believe this? Because of history. Because of Paul Robeson because of Bevan because of The Internationale because the wedge that has been driven between the working class left and the middle class left is as manufactured as the wedge between the working class Pole and the working class Brit. They've been played sure, but so have you.

    I know it's hard. Because I too want to throttle every Leave voter I speak to for the poor kid in school next week who will be taunted with "go home" or the racist shitelord who is emboldened by the belief they have some sort of mandate. Oh I'm livid. But I believe this anger is being exploited to create those wedges and perpetuate the unworkable stats quo. So when you want to point out that an unemployed Leave voter has more in common with the immigrant than they know, perhaps you have more in common with the Leaver than you know.

    You know that point where you think "fuck it, let them starve the racist arseholes". They reached that a long time ago. But I promise you that there are Leave voters waking up with the mother of all constitutional hangovers. They are looking at the racists dancing in the streets and they are thinking "what the fuck have I done". If you come at them with hate or derision they will think they made the right choice, if you come at them with an alternative they will join you. You need them as much as they need you, neither side can do this alone. On Thursday the perfect sure as shit kicked the arse of the good. Let's not make the same mistake again.

    We need to give the powerless an option that is not based on hate. The first step is to stop hating them, stop hating me.

    It's not done. It really isn't. Half the Leavers leadership don't want to pull the Article 50 lever because they know they are fucked if they do. We're British ffs. Collectively pretending whatever face-saving story we concoct is the truth is basically the last thousand years of our history. It would be nice to be la-la-la-I'm-not-listening through something good for a change rather than some genocide or other abhorrent act like usual.

    It's time to Make Britain annoy-the-shit-out-of-everyone-by-refusing-to-acknowledge-the-monumentally-stupid-thing-we-have-done Again.
    Brings a tear to my eye.
    posted by fullerine at 12:19 AM on June 26, 2016 [50 favorites]


    Other than a generalised fear of Islam (pushed as the big threat since the end of the Cold War by out betters) I think it comes simply down to language. There are Eastern Europeans that can "pass for British" (yuck) but they will speak to one another in Estonian, Slovakian, Romanian, Polish etc.

    British people have always been dreadful about learning other languages - part of the benefit of the Empire was that everyone was forced to communicate in the same way. Well, now they're here from the Commonwealth and they all speak English. Whilst they might have "funny" accents and different skin colours, at least when they're chatting on the bus we're not thinking that they're talking about us or plotting against us (nothing winds your "White, British" person up like two people chatting on the bus in Urdu).

    The latest group are primarily Eastern Europeans and they (like most migrants) have a tendency to clump in the same area (it's nice to speak to people from the home country - look at British emigrants) but they've had no need to learn English. The British expectation that we shouldn't have to learn different languages is a big part of this distrust and hatred of immigrants. It would be a lot easier for some folks to accept Ondrej if they could just call him Andy and talk to the guy.
    posted by longbaugh at 12:25 AM on June 26, 2016 [8 favorites]


    longbaugh, that's why my Jewish antecedents in Leeds threw away Yiddish for local dialect in one generation.
    posted by i_am_joe's_spleen at 12:35 AM on June 26, 2016 [1 favorite]


    Fintan O'Toole had a sharp column in yesterday's Irish Times which I don't think has been linked here yet.
    It is not even clear that the Brexit coalition can itself hold together in any meaningful way. It is, after all, a weird conjunction. Brexit is not so much a peasants’ revolt as a deeply strange peasants’ – and – landlords’ revolt.

    It is a Downton Abbey fantasy of toffs and servants all mucking in together. But when the toffs, as the slogan goes, “take back control”, the underlings will quickly discover that a fantasy is exactly what it is.
    And from last week in the Guardian, on the mostly empty myth of glorious British isolationism and the total unpreparedness of the leading figures of the Leave campaign for this result.
    Otherwise – and this includes all of the past 400 years – England has always been part of at least one larger entity: an Anglo-French kingdom, the United Kingdom in its various forms, a global empire, the European Union. The English are much less used to being left to their own devices than they think they are.
    posted by o seasons o castles at 12:38 AM on June 26, 2016 [10 favorites]


    Sign the petition! Theresa May would totally go for a second referendum in return for 20 million confirmed as working email addresses.

    Shit, get enough Ahmeds and Tariqs on there and she'd probably just cancel the last one.
    posted by fullerine at 12:56 AM on June 26, 2016 [1 favorite]


    motty's Jack of Kent link makes a lot of sense. The game now is delay, delay, delay, meanwhile playing brinksmanship with your opponents to extract maximum political concessions, in the hope that someone will blink. If the Article 50 button ever actually gets pushed, it will only be because someone fucks up. Even Cameron's resignation plays to this. He will probably have to go through with stepping down, but the delay gives time for things to change.

    One thing that's not on the table is a better deal for the suckers who voted to exit. They will remain poor and neglected, because that pool of disaffected voters is valuable to the rich and powerful. Nor will immigration be significantly affected, although the racial/national profile of the immigrants might change a little.
    posted by Autumn Leaf at 1:03 AM on June 26, 2016 [3 favorites]


    Today: "Up to half of the shadow cabinet is set to resign in a bid to force Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn to step down".

    In reaction to Hilary Benn trying to establish a leadership bid. He was apparently sacked by phone at 1am Sunday.
    posted by Quagkapi at 1:05 AM on June 26, 2016


    "Up to half of the shadow cabinet is set to resign in a bid to force Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn to step down".

    Well, here we go. I hope Labour wins the battle for its soul before the Tories win theirs.
    A plague on both their ignorant, myopic, irresponsible houses.
    posted by fullerine at 1:11 AM on June 26, 2016 [10 favorites]


    FFS. The Labour Party seems to believe a prep-school-educated (current school fees: £5678 per term) hereditary politician is the right leader to reach out to disaffected former voters in the Labour heartlands. Great plan, people!
    posted by Sonny Jim at 1:15 AM on June 26, 2016 [2 favorites]


    There is absolutely no way this isn't going to drag out for a long long time yet.

    Yes, absolutely everyone knows that, but for all that the negotiations have to start, and they can only be started after invoking the article, it’s in the treaty that still applies.

    That’s what was being discussed in that linked thread on the Guardian - the possible scenarios by which invoking Article 50 could be delayed indefinitely while the Tories play more games to deal with the "poisoned chalice". The EU position was being ignored in the otherwise very interesting comment.

    And don’t be fooled, Schulz and Merkel are on the same side there, you can shift the emphasis and tone and say it nicer or a bit more bluntly, Merkel typically plays the good cop every single time, but there are procedures for the exit and saying "It shouldn't take forever, that's right, but I would not fight for a short timeframe" (Merkel) is not in such stark contradiction with "We have to take note of this unilateral declaration that they want to wait until October, but that must not be the last word" (Schulz).

    And then there are concerns about the markets’ reactions to uncertainty etc. The scenarios in that "poisoned chalice" comment ignored that too.
    posted by bitteschoen at 1:17 AM on June 26, 2016


    Hilary Benn statement: “It has now become clear that there is widespread concern among Labour MPs and in the shadow cabinet about Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership of our party. In particular, there is no confidence in our ability to win the next election, which may come much sooner than expected, if Jeremy continues as leader.”
    And rolling a democratically elected leader who's supported by the vast majority of the party membership and replacing him with yet another clueless SPAD with a politics degree from a Russell Group university is going to improve Labour's electoral chances? Enjoy battling with the Greens for metropolitan support while formally surrendering the rest of the country to apathy and UKIP, people!
    posted by Sonny Jim at 1:32 AM on June 26, 2016 [8 favorites]


    > Enjoy battling with the Greens for metropolitan support

    Liberal Democrats pledge to keep Britain in the EU after next election

    > Leader Tim Farron said on Saturday night that he would be “clear and unequivocal” with voters that if elected it would set aside the referendum result and keep Britain in the EU.

    I think the Lib Dems might be competitive (obviously not for a majority, but as a significant spoiler) if they pull this off well.

    I am not a particular follower of Labour, but do the Corbyn supporters in here recognise the feeling that his campaigning was half-hearted? Or is all this just Westminster in-fighting, with no basis in genuine concern for the potential upcoming election? 60% of Labour voters supposedly followed the party line. Why the heck wasn't it more?
    posted by Quagkapi at 1:41 AM on June 26, 2016 [2 favorites]


    It's business as usual for the Blairites. Every single thing is somehow Corbyn's fault, and therefore we must shank him for the good of all.
    posted by skybluepink at 1:49 AM on June 26, 2016 [5 favorites]


    Corbyn was always Lexit personally.
    posted by Coda Tronca at 1:50 AM on June 26, 2016


    I think Corbyn wanted to Leave.

    I am angry that he didn't have enough principles to say so or at least admit he could not bring himself to campaign with Farage and Boris. If he had, the result would probably have been a larger Leave vote, but at least the idea of a left-wing case for Leave would have bee on the table and we wouldn't be hearing that everyone north of Watford is a racist.

    In general I have been disappointed that Corbyn has not taken his populist mandate to force for real change. He seems to think the Blairite PLP can be reasoned with which is insane because they truly despise him.

    I think he'll be gone within a month or the Parliamentary Labour Party will split. Hey, perhaps Labour can keep the socialists this time and send the centrists off to play with others.

    Or they replace him with [ToryLite] and we're down to the greens, or hoping Sturgeon invades or some shit. Hey, the South East can secede and we'll go back to how the country should have been if Glyndwr hadn't just fucked off back to his forest ;)
    posted by fullerine at 1:51 AM on June 26, 2016 [3 favorites]


    The number of Labour voters who went remain was 63%, apparently. That's practically identical to the number of 2015 SNP voters who went remain, and 21% more than the Tory remain campaign managed with their own voters. Hell, it's only 7% less than the corresponding figure for the explicitly Europhile Lib Dems. Where are the critiques of Sturgeon and Farron for failing to mobilise their supporters better?
    posted by Sonny Jim at 1:53 AM on June 26, 2016 [9 favorites]


    hoping Sturgeon invades or some shit

    This is like seriously my second greatest hope, right after my alarm clock going off, and this all being a terrible dream.
    posted by skybluepink at 2:07 AM on June 26, 2016 [6 favorites]


    Tell me again how the vote wasn't about racism.

    It was about other things too, for sure. But if you're upset at people calling the leavers 'racist', you are fucking kidding yourself. These are the people you allied yourself with. Own it.
    posted by His thoughts were red thoughts at 2:09 AM on June 26, 2016 [30 favorites]


    hoping Sturgeon invades or some shit
    Reminds me of something I said to amuse my flatmates back in the run up to the 2010 election. The SNP should run candidates in all English electorates, win, and then declare Greater Scotland.
    posted by Sonny Jim at 2:20 AM on June 26, 2016 [11 favorites]


    How about the Tory party splits and the Labour party splits, and the former Blairite half can team up with the pro-EU Tories to form a centrist party backed by 100 percent of big business, the media, and to judge from the comments here, the intellectual class.

    The working class can continue to be 'something that has to be policed'.
    posted by Coda Tronca at 2:34 AM on June 26, 2016 [2 favorites]


    Ultimately, free movement is another weapon in the arsenal of the rich and poweful and their ongoing class war against the working class

    Right, bring out the arguments used to build the Berlin Wall. Freedom of movement is a human right, not a weapon. Preventing movement: that is a weapon indeed.
    posted by romanb at 2:42 AM on June 26, 2016 [19 favorites]


    I don't understand why the EU spokesperson came out minutes after the vote was announced and all but said, "well, fuck you too", by announcing that the vote nullified the Feb treaty. That was the most inflammatory thing Brussels could have done

    No, that’s not a "fuck you too", that’s simply those boring rules that were mutually agreed precisely for this case!

    Of course the extra special concessions granted in February were nullified by the vote, they were specifically negotiated with the aim to discourage a leave vote and keep the UK in the EU, it was established that a Leave vote would nullify them! The treaty was indeed torn asunder by British voters, not by Brussels - all EU treaties were - that was the whole point of the Leave vote... How is that not self-evident?

    It’s also self-evident that the advisory nature of the referendum is not some kind of magic "reset" button, it’s irrelevant at this stage that the referendum is technically non-binding, it was supposed to have and has obviously had a huge political impact that cannot be ignored or reversed - Cameron resigned straight away - no reasonable honest person could seriously expect the EU to react otherwise and pretend it didn’t count. Seriously?

    Denial of reality is not the kind of attitude that will help in dealing with the whole sorry mess. There was a vote, decry it or defend it, but at least do so honestly - the constant shifting of responsibilities for dealing with the consequences is unsustainable at this stage. This is not Greece strangled by EU austerity, this was entirely made in the UK.

    And all those voices even in this thread expressing fear and concern for their own situation? They are not "the ruling elites", neither are the migrants in the UK or the 20-something generation of Brits who feel screwed over. They don’t deserve this ongoing misidrection of resentment either.
    posted by bitteschoen at 2:47 AM on June 26, 2016 [33 favorites]




    And as Bell and others argue, since xenophobia is hard to directly counter, at least as important would be to target the underlying economic problems that lead the impoverished to become bigots.

    Yes, this. Xenophobia and racism are hard to counter, but note importantly, I do not want to address these concerns (unlike politicians from both major parties, who have been all about doing a much stealth appeasing of racists as possible) at all. Fuck racism, fuck giving in to it, fuck taking racist concerns seriously.

    What I am interested in addressing, are the actual concerns that cause racism. This is both likely to be far more effective, and deals with some actual rational fears that can be meaningfully addressed in a humane way. People hate foreigners because they took all their jobs? That's outright bullshit, and there is no non-harmful way of directly addressing or appeasing that perspective. You can, however, make sure there are enough fucking jobs that nobody is out of one.

    You should not, can not, address racism - it is fundamentally an irrational hatred, and it should be given no quarter whatsoever. Address the actual concerns that people aren't vocalising but that are informing and causing these racist attitudes.
    posted by Dysk at 3:06 AM on June 26, 2016 [17 favorites]


    And all those voices even in this thread expressing fear and concern for their own situation? They are not "the ruling elites", neither are the migrants in the UK or the 20-something generation of Brits who feel screwed over.


    ...and (yet another) friendly reminder that this thread died in fact feature a number of migrants in the UK expressing concern for their situation. We exist. We're right fucking here, and we can hear you talking about us as though we weren't, structuring your sentences to imply that we aren't part of the conversation. Not cool.
    posted by Dysk at 3:09 AM on June 26, 2016 [17 favorites]


    I don't understand why the EU spokesperson came out minutes after the vote was announced and all but said, "well, fuck you too", by announcing that the vote nullified the Feb treaty. That was the most inflammatory thing Brussels could have done


    Upthread:
    Jesus, it's as if half an entire country got drunk at a strip club and left a voice mail telling their girlfriend it's over and I'm in love with Cheyenne here and we're going to get married and their response to discovering all their shit in a pile outside the apartment the next morning is to wonder why they were dating such a bitch."
    posted by Mister Bijou at 3:09 AM on June 26, 2016 [11 favorites]


    Hahaha, the Morning Star. Not sure there is a less credible rag in Britain, especially with huge portions of the left. That particular article is full of gems, but the two that stuck out to me were the idea that Corbyn would win a post-referendum election (with no consideration whatsoever of how shitty most of parliamentary Labour are) and the idea that "there will not be an automatic lurch to the right even with Johnson or May as Tory leader."

    I'm not sure what universe the author is living in, but it ain't the same one as me.
    posted by Dysk at 3:15 AM on June 26, 2016 [9 favorites]


    That’s why defeating the EU will be an advance for the entire fight against racism.

    And yet peruse the link His thoughts were red thoughts just posted. Incident after incident of racism on and on and on. It didn't work.

    There are enormous problems with EU refugee policy to be sure, but walking away from a seat at the able will not help resolve them, and the UK will remain bound by the Refugee Convention no matter what. I fail to see how leaving in any way saves a single life in the Mediterranean.
    posted by zachlipton at 3:16 AM on June 26, 2016 [13 favorites]


    Mod note: A couple of comments deleted. Cut out the personal bickering, and just discuss the issues. If you are commenting, and a significant part of what you are saying has to do with somehow addressing another member about their identity, you're doing it wrong. If you cannot figure out how to participate here without doing this, you will not be able to participate here. If someone says something you disagree with, explain the disagreement rather than focus on the person.
    posted by taz (staff) at 3:50 AM on June 26, 2016 [11 favorites]


    Nicola Sturgeon says MSPs at Holyrood could veto Brexit.

    But will they, given the potential to wedge it for a second indyref?
    posted by biffa at 3:57 AM on June 26, 2016


    Not the hero we deserve but the one we need right now.
    Second indyref? Shit, if they do that she can be Queen.
    posted by fullerine at 4:02 AM on June 26, 2016


    walking away from a seat at the able will not help resolve them, and the UK will remain bound by the Refugee Convention no matter what. I fail to see how leaving in any way saves a single life in the Mediterranean.

    From a week ago:

    The aid group Médecins Sans Frontières will no longer take money from any member of the EU, in protest at the way Europe has responded to the refugee crisis.
    posted by Coda Tronca at 4:03 AM on June 26, 2016 [1 favorite]


    Second EU Referendum Petition Started By Leave Voter William Oliver Healey:
    The petition for a second EU referendum with 3 million signatures was started by a leave voter last month worried the remain camp would win.

    William Oliver Healey, an English Democrat activist, claims it has been "hijacked" and has tried to distance himself from what has become the largest petition of its kind in history.

    THERE WAS NO GUARANTEE OF A LEAVE VICTORY AT THAT TIME!!! Having said that, if it had not been mine, it would have been orchestrated by someone on the remain campaign. However, since I am associated with the petition and before the press further associate me with it I felt the need to better clarify my position on the issue even if it looks bad. I am it's creator, nothing more! The logistical probability of getting a turnout to be a minimum of 75% and of that, 60% of the vote must be one or the other (leave or remain) is in my opinion next to impossible without a compulsory element to the voting system.


    This is too much, I can't
    posted by catchingsignals at 4:03 AM on June 26, 2016 [11 favorites]


    This and this turned up on Facebook right next to each other. Good job Iannucci got out of the political satire thing before reality left him in the dust.
    posted by Grangousier at 4:03 AM on June 26, 2016 [4 favorites]


    Jesus, everything you need to know about western democracies today is mentioned up-thread: The idea that a certain level of unemployment (ie, hardship for people) is considered good because it benefits corporations (ie, vehicles to avoid liability and shelter taxes for the rich) by keeping wages low.

    Heads on pikes.
    posted by maxwelton at 4:10 AM on June 26, 2016 [15 favorites]


    Nicola Sturgeon says MSPs at Holyrood could veto Brexit.

    But will they, given the potential to wedge it for a second indyref?


    No idea if it could/would happen, but worth remembering that the Scottish Parliament was very strongly pro-Remain across all parties, not just the Indy-supporting ones (SNP and Greens). All five party leaders supported Remain, and the vote at Holyrood back in May on Parliament's position was 106 MSPs voting in favour of staying in the EU vs 8 voting against - and one of those eight actually meant to vote in favour but voted the other way by mistake.
    posted by Catseye at 4:16 AM on June 26, 2016


    and one of those eight actually meant to vote in favour but voted the other way by mistake.
    So your pretty standard Leave voter then?
    posted by fullerine at 4:21 AM on June 26, 2016 [8 favorites]


    The aid group Médecins Sans Frontières will no longer take money from any member of the EU, in protest at the way Europe has responded to the refugee crisis.
    Because telling them to keep their £60M will certainly teach them a lesson. This is an even bigger "cutting off your nose to spite your face" move than the British Leave vote. With that judgment, they obviously refused any money from the U.S. after we accidentally bombed their hospital, right?
    posted by oneswellfoop at 4:24 AM on June 26, 2016 [6 favorites]


    I'm getting quite worried about our government now. I think maybe the entirety of the cabinet has been kidnapped. Can someone go round and check to see if they're all okay?
    posted by dng at 4:28 AM on June 26, 2016 [2 favorites]


    A non-EU UK - having been one of the drivers for the EU handling of the refugee crisis, and being the major cause for the Calais jungle - is no more likely to embraced by MSF than the EU as a whole.
    posted by Dysk at 4:29 AM on June 26, 2016 [2 favorites]


    Medicine Sans Frontiers is a charity with no legislative power. Refusing money and choosing suppliers is the only leverage they have, as pissweak and contradictory a move as it is. The UK has members of the EU parliament, their own parliament, and an entire civil service creating hundreds of points of influence and control in the refugee debate. Giving all that up (UK parliament & bureaucracy will now spend at least the next 2 years dealing with the Brexit fallout) in exchange for a boycott of the EU processes (NB boycotts are the weakest force for change) is the height of stupidity. Don't claim you've done this for the sake of refugees when you've effectively abandoned them.
    posted by harriet vane at 4:31 AM on June 26, 2016 [15 favorites]


    British Lose Right to Claim That Americans Are Dumber

    “This is a dark day,” he said. “But I hold out hope that, come November, Americans could become dumber than us once more.”
    posted by TedW at 4:32 AM on June 26, 2016 [10 favorites]


    Although my link above is tongue in cheek, at the bottom are links to more thoughtful analyses, including a depressing article about Jo Cox's district. At least some of them have probably been linked above.
    posted by TedW at 4:39 AM on June 26, 2016


    Well, if you're paying close enough attention, you'll know that Andy Borowitz is the New Yorker's "One-Man Onion", satire-wise - I don't think his tongue has been OUT of his cheek more than a couple times in his entire writing career - but his snark and satire is a good 'gateway' for access to the New Yorker's more serious 'related content'.
    posted by oneswellfoop at 4:44 AM on June 26, 2016


    A non-EU UK - having been one of the drivers for the EU handling of the refugee crisis, and being the major cause for the Calais jungle - is no more likely to embraced by MSF than the EU as a whole.

    Nope. France has the legal responsibility for the Calais Jungle. There is no principle--except for an informal moral argument--that the UK must deal with non-registered refugees in the territory of another state. None. Like the sinking of the Belgrano, I'm constantly amazed that anybody seeks to blame the UK.
    posted by Emma May Smith at 4:47 AM on June 26, 2016 [2 favorites]


    at the bottom are links to more thoughtful analyses

    Succinct: The New Yorker front cover
    posted by Mister Bijou at 4:48 AM on June 26, 2016 [1 favorite]


    Nope. France has the legal responsibility for the Calais Jungle. There is no principle--except for an informal moral argument--that the UK must deal with non-registered refugees in the territory of another state. None.

    We are all responsible for lots of things where we have no legal obligation. I never claimed the UK was legally at fault.
    posted by Dysk at 4:51 AM on June 26, 2016 [1 favorite]


    First of all, Andy Borowitz is potentially the most unfunny person on the internet. You know how right wing political comedy is always a little "off" and you're not quite sure why, it's just odd and tone-deaf and you can always see the jokes coming a mile away? Borowitz is like that, but on the other side. Why and how the New Yorker continues to employ him is an enduring mystery. He and Maureen Dowd should start some sort of union.

    Second of all, Trump is right now going on a Twitter storm accusing Hillary and Obama of being "wrong" on Brexit and how he was "right."

    Crooked Hillary Clinton, who called BREXIT 100% wrong (along with Obama), is now spending Wall Street money on an ad on my correct call. ... Clinton is trying to wash away her bad judgement call on BREXIT with big dollar ads. Disgraceful!

    He seems to be confusing an incorrect prediction with bad judgment. As my kindergarten teacher used to say to, "are you really that dense, or are you just putting us on?"
    posted by (Arsenio) Hall and (Warren) Oates at 4:54 AM on June 26, 2016 [8 favorites]


    We are all responsible for lots of things where we have no legal obligation. I never claimed the UK was legally at fault.

    Then would you kindly explain why the UK should do anything about the Calais Jungle when France is responsible? There seems to be a belief among Leftists that the UK should admit anybody in the Calais Jungle. I have never, ever, understood this point of view, and find it really hard to wrap my head around.
    posted by Emma May Smith at 4:55 AM on June 26, 2016


    Uh no, I'm saying the UK is responsible, regardless of the legal situation (which is only the case because of the unusual case of that British border control being on French rather than British soil). Finding a way to sidestep your legal obligation does not render your responsibility void.
    posted by Dysk at 5:02 AM on June 26, 2016


    Because telling them to keep their £60M will certainly teach them a lesson.

    MSF say they refused the money because "The EU-Turkey deal ... has placed the very concept of 'refugee' and the protection it offers in danger."
    posted by Coda Tronca at 5:14 AM on June 26, 2016 [2 favorites]


    Succinct: The New Yorker front cover
    Some analogies are so easy that multiple political cartoonists (especially American ones) can do essentially the same cartoon: 1, 2, 3 (although the third has the best choice of Stereotypical British Character). But Darrin Bell has a much better analogy.

    And I'm glad Drumpf is going all-in on his support of Brexit. It gives us a four-month pre-warning of what Trumpist policies are and can do, and if a majority of American voters choose him, well, unlike some of the confused Leave voters in Britain, we'll have no excuse.
    posted by oneswellfoop at 5:14 AM on June 26, 2016 [4 favorites]


    The EU will treat Britain like Greece (might need cookies off to read if you have trouble reading it - but it's terrifying so you might not want to.)
    posted by urbanwhaleshark at 5:20 AM on June 26, 2016 [3 favorites]


    Marienbad: Upthread someone said, when I mentioned the EU spitting its dummy out and saying we had to leave immediately: "Like, the agreement is only valid so long as the UK stays in the EU and it was invalidated by the British public who can read the agreement for themselves not some faceless "Brussels Bureaucrat" right?" Yeah, because when you are working two jobs and one of them six days a week you really want to come home and read stuff like that.

    Sure, ordinary people don't have the time to think through stuff like that.

    Firstly, that's why a parliamentary democracy is a pretty good idea. You elect people (or parties) that you think are trustworthy and leave the difficult decisions to them. If you think they're not doing a good job, you get a chance to kick the rascals out after four years or so. Certainly not a perfect system, but better than anything else that was tried so far.

    Secondly, this is why referendums on important things are a really, really bad idea. As should have become very clear now, most ordinary people are generally poorly informed on complex issues and, moreover, easily swayed by charismatic demagogues and the press.

    Thirdly, is the EU inefficient? Does it take forever to implement changes? It certainly is and it certainly does. But that's a feature not a bug. The decision process is structured so that important decions are made after building a consensus among all member states and taking everyone on board. This is to avoid such rash decisions as the Brexit. A consequence of this is that, by design, there is little direct democracy. It is certainly not perfect, but compared to a bunch of nation states acting all in their own interest without giving a fuck about their neighbors, it certainly seems a step in the right direction. Well, I suppose we'll see in a few years whether the UK will fare better with doing everything on their own and leaving the really important decisions (next up: Scoxit II) to the general population and some influential journalists, such as Boris Johnson.

    Incidentally, a lot of changes (such as stricter financial regulations) could not be made because it was impossible to get the UK on board. So, I don't think it's so strange that the EU now calls for a quick implementation of the Brexit: Either get on board or get out of the way!
    posted by sour cream at 5:22 AM on June 26, 2016 [33 favorites]


    He seems to be confusing an incorrect prediction with bad judgment. As my kindergarten teacher used to say to, "are you really that dense, or are you just putting us on?"

    He's not trying to make sense to you. It's a dog whistle. There's no surer sign that there's something fundamentally awful about Brexit when it has become so associated with racism and toxic nationalism that Trump tries to appropriate it.
    posted by frumiousb at 5:23 AM on June 26, 2016 [4 favorites]


    Ok, so, this is a bit of an aside but it's the morning and the coffee is kicking in and can we quickly talk about why the New Yorker cover is so superior to the other examples? Notice that in the NY cover, nothing is labeled, there is no dialogue, nothing needs to be explained. "Here is a posh Britain man (and even better, a *silly* posh British man, already himself a parody of strange Britishness), walking over a cliff." Even if you didn't know Monty Python, you'd get the joke. Knowing Monty Python makes the joke just a bit funnier -- well, maybe not laugh out loud funnier but more clever. Yeah, it's a bit of an inside joke. But it works really well.

    Now take a look at the other examples. The first has a sign "BREXIT" and a man yelling "Rule Brittania" All that is needed to complete the trifecta is a sash across his chest reading "British Man" so that we REALLY get the joke. The second is worse than the first! The plane is labeled EU, the door is labeled Brexit, and as for the man, who could it be? I just don't get this cartoon, who does the man represent!? Aha, I see now, the letters "UK" are written upon his jacket. He must be a man from the UK! The third is slightly better. Wallace and Gromit place us where we need to be, and Wallace is probably better synecdoche than the Man from the Silly Walks Department, but again, is the "BRexit" sign necessary? As though Wallace doing something foolish and falling from a great height wouldn't be sufficient? And then finally the fourth cartoon, the worst of the bunch. This is basically just an internet comment that somebody attached a picture to. There is so much text there, the only value that an illustration brings to the table is to show the UK guy as a sleazy sleazebag. Which could have just as easily been achieved by writing "It's like if the UK was a sleazy guy and EU was his girlfriend, and he said...[the text of the cartoon]."

    In summation, my morning plate of beans was delicious, political cartoonists are almost universally ridiculous, and the New Yorker cover is awesome.
    posted by (Arsenio) Hall and (Warren) Oates at 5:28 AM on June 26, 2016 [21 favorites]


    Oh, and a "Bregret" vote and "Breturn to the EU" seems vaguely possible, but also at a devastating cost to the UK: Basically all leverage that the UK had is gone forever.
    Bregret and Breturn will mean that the Brexit was an just an empty bluff, so why should the EU ever make any special (and endlessly annoying) concessions to the UK ever again?

    Probably not a road that the UK wants to go down either, because it will mean that their standing in the EU will be much, much worse than before the vote, so the whole thing will have been not only pointless but will have wiped out all concessions and goodwill in one stroke. Surely too much to stomach for the UK populace and its politicians.

    So, the best course of action for all involved is a quick Brexit. Give the UK three weeks time to figure out where it is that they want to Brexit to and then get it done as quickly as possible.
    posted by sour cream at 5:32 AM on June 26, 2016 [3 favorites]


    Fairly sure that one of the clauses of the Feb treaty stated clearly that a 'LEAVE' vote in the referendum would nullify it.

    People keep forgetting that the referendum was about that deal; remain was Cameron's treaty amendments, leave was an article 50 exit. The amendments would kick in if the UK voted for remain:
    This Decision shall take effect on the same date as the Government of the United Kingdom informs the Secretary-General of the Council that the United Kingdom has decided to remain a member of the European Union.
    Arguing that it's not nice of the EU to point out that the deal is off the table now that the UK decided not to remain a member is basically arguing that the referendum never happened (I guess you could argue that nobody has told Jagland yet, but he seems to have noticed so not sure if that works.)
    posted by effbot at 5:42 AM on June 26, 2016 [8 favorites]


    The EU will treat Britain like Greece

    Guess who else used to make shit up as the Daily Telegraph's Brussels correspondent.
    posted by effbot at 5:49 AM on June 26, 2016 [3 favorites]


    ...and (yet another) friendly reminder that this thread died in fact feature a number of migrants in the UK expressing concern for their situation. We exist. We're right fucking here, and we can hear you talking about us as though we weren't, structuring your sentences to imply that we aren't part of the conversation. Not cool.

    Dysk, that was so not my implication! Sorry if the wording wasn’t clear but it wasn’t an othering "they" from my point of view, it was in response to the comment speaking of "the elites"... I’m not in the UK but I am an intra-EU migrant myself, I have colleagues and friends from different European countries who live in London and Scotland and Ireland, and lots of young British people around where I live, so I am very much seeing this from that perspective. I had even considered moving the UK, in what feels like a previous universe now.

    And the coverage of that perspective I’ve seen in the British media pre-referendum has been so disappointing, practically lacking. Even the Guardian seemed interested mainly in older British pensioners in Spain...
    posted by bitteschoen at 5:49 AM on June 26, 2016


    One thought regarding lowering immigration:
    It has been argued that a Brexit wouldn't lower immigration because the UK would have to accept freedom of movement (of EU citizens) in order to trade with the EU. While this is true, I think it can be anticipated that immigration by EU citiziens (i.e. primarily from Eastern Europea) would decrease drastically, as the British Pound devalues, the economy tanks and unemployment and anti-immigration sentiments rise. In other words, the more unattractive the UK becomes as a place to live, the fewer immigration there will be from EU member states.

    So congrats, Brexiteers, that part may (partially) work out as planned!

    As for refugees fleeing war zones, such as Syria, my understanding is that under the Dublin accord, the UK could (in theory) send them back to the EU country they first entered. After the Brexit that will not be possible anymore, and sending them back to their home country is not possible under the European Convention of Human Rights. So they're gonna be stuck with the Syrians, Iraqis, Eritreans etc. that make it there. Looks like someone didn't quite think that one through.
    posted by sour cream at 5:55 AM on June 26, 2016 [6 favorites]


    It's completely obvious they didn't think ANY of it through. They didn't expect to win, and they don't have any kind of coherent fucking plan.
    posted by skybluepink at 6:00 AM on June 26, 2016 [18 favorites]


    Looks like someone didn't quite think that one through.
    Looks like a lot of someones didn't quite think a whole lot of things through.

    As I mentioned before, living in California, home of the culture of Ballot Initiatives, I'm used to seeing "unintended consequences" every time one of them passes.
    posted by oneswellfoop at 6:00 AM on June 26, 2016 [8 favorites]


    sending them back to their home country is not possible under the European Convention of Human Rights.

    I'm pretty sure your next PM Teresa May has a plan for that.

    Related: "What has the ECHR ever done for us?"
    posted by effbot at 6:09 AM on June 26, 2016 [4 favorites]




    Nicola Sturgeon says MSPs at Holyrood could veto Brexit.
    But will they, given the potential to wedge it for a second indyref?


    This seems unlikely - but it could be a bargaining chip if trying to get an indy-ref green light from a Brexit led Westminster parliament.
    posted by rongorongo at 6:22 AM on June 26, 2016 [1 favorite]


    So what I am hearing so far appears to be plenty of counter-scaremongering:

    1) the end is nigh, the economy will tank and only then you will learn how lucky you were when you were in deep shit, but your head was still over the top. - I have seen this movie before: the beating will continue until morale improves. Greece is the most recent example coming to my mind.

    2) you do not know jack about the intricacies of an economic system based on a single set of rules, which is the essence of a single market, after all. - Well then, it appears we have yet another case of too big to fail. Alas, the system is more important then its components and the system itself is NOT the mere sum of its components. True enough, but then what the hell of a system is one that feeds on its own components while leaving most a pittance to survive and few an astronomical fortune?

    3) old people vs young people: young people want Europe, the old curmudgeons are going to die soon so fuck em anyway, we are the future of the world - That is a silly re-edition of the infamous Futurism, which was ok as an art movement, but not as a political one. Yet, there is an added bonus: it shifts blames about commoners and pit them one against the other.

    4) the unwashed masses and we, the ones that know what is better for anybody else and know the whole truth - actually, I have not heard that in the mass media very often ...unsurprisingly, but I guess it is in many people minds.

    Darn, still nothing sensible on the horizon.
    posted by elpapacito at 6:22 AM on June 26, 2016 [2 favorites]


    Because telling them to keep their £60M will certainly teach them a lesson. This is an even bigger "cutting off your nose to spite your face" move than the British Leave vote.

    Oh for... MSF is one of the most well-respected NGOs in the world, and being independent and neutral is one of their major assets -- it allows them to work in some really dangerous parts of the world, and they're using that to the full extent (working under circumstances that involve things like "ok, the front line is now less than 20 km from the hospital, time to start moving people" and "no, we cannot use an airlift, both sides will fire at the helicopters"). Almost all of their funding, 92%, comes from private donors (full disclosure: I'm one). The EU part was a few % of the overall budget, and was limited to specific projects.

    Now go give them some money to make up for your uninformed snark. Or donate some time, or something.
    posted by effbot at 6:35 AM on June 26, 2016 [31 favorites]


    The SNP should run candidates in all English electorates, win, and then declare Greater Scotland.

    With First Past the Post voting it'd end up like Canada where the Tory would win the plurality of split left-wing voters further solidifying the Tory grip on power.
    posted by Talez at 6:38 AM on June 26, 2016 [1 favorite]


    it appears we have yet another case of too big to fail

    So let's see... 242,495 km², 65,102,385 people, a GDP of $2.679 trillion. Yeah, seems pretty big to me. I'm not sure why anyone would be ok with having that failing.
    posted by effbot at 6:40 AM on June 26, 2016 [1 favorite]


    zachlipton: >>Unemployment around 6.5% is literally government policy, and interest rates are set in part to maintain a certain level of unemployment.

    maxwelton: >>Jesus, everything you need to know about western democracies today is mentioned up-thread: The idea that a certain level of unemployment (ie, hardship for people) is considered good because it benefits corporations (ie, vehicles to avoid liability and shelter taxes for the rich) by keeping wages low.

    This solidifies something I've been thinking, too--the whole policy of higher unemployment and very, very low inflation pretty clearly is one of the most important factors that has powered the accumulation of wealth by the 0.1%, and the impoverishment of the masses and massive shrinking of the middle class since about the 1970s.

    Low inflation rates encourage the hoarding of wealth rather than spending it and leads to higher concentrations of wealth. High unemployment helps keep wages low, especially right at the bottom end of things--again leading to higher concentration of wealth.

    If you could change one thing about western economies that would most help people at the bottom--and in the middle, for that matter--it just might be re-balancing unemployment/inflation so that your unemployment rate is more like 3-4% and your inflation more like 5-6% - basically reversing the unemployment/inflation targets the U.S and Europe have today.

    This is, in practical terms, how you would run a Worgl Experiment (as mentioned upthread) in a modern economy today.
    posted by flug at 6:47 AM on June 26, 2016 [4 favorites]


    So let's see... 242,495 km², 65,102,385 people, a GDP of $2.679 trillion. Yeah, seems pretty big to me. I'm not sure why anyone would be ok with having that failing.

    The EU is the organisation, not the territory and the people.
    posted by Coda Tronca at 6:51 AM on June 26, 2016


    Wallace is probably better synecdoche than the Man from the Silly Walks Department

    Not so sure about that. Despite Wallace's adventurism he seems to always end up in one piece, whereas Monty Python characters sometimes lose all their limbs.
    posted by iffthen at 6:53 AM on June 26, 2016 [2 favorites]


    The EU is the organisation, not the territory and the people.

    I think those statistics refer to the UK, not the EU.
    posted by Grangousier at 6:55 AM on June 26, 2016


    Grangegrousier: Yeah, when England lose to Iceland on Monday we can just replay the match over and over until we win.
    posted by marienbad at 6:55 AM on June 26, 2016


    The question of immigration is irrelevant. Limits to the free movement of labour aren't on the table. If we want to trade with the EU we have to accept it under whatever model we negotiate. If there's a model that doesn't include it... what is it?

    Although obviously now we just have to accept what we're given, as we're in the minority in a very asymmetrical arrangement.
    posted by Grangousier at 6:59 AM on June 26, 2016


    Oh, and it's not a fucking game.
    posted by Grangousier at 7:00 AM on June 26, 2016 [8 favorites]


    Mod note: A few comments deleted. Marienbad, stop scolding / demanding that people "answer your questions"; this is a conversation, not an interrogation, and no one is obliged to do as you demand. Stop making this personal about people not supporting you, and really, the ranting against the Polish is getting off the rails at this point. Please give this thread a very serious breather.
    posted by taz (staff) at 7:03 AM on June 26, 2016 [35 favorites]


    First of all, Andy Borowitz is potentially the most unfunny person on the internet.

    Let me introduce you to Mallard Fillmore! I think Borowitz is hilarious, but I also realize comedy is one of those things where people have different tastes, so to each his own.

    ...political cartoonists are almost universally ridiculous, and the New Yorker cover is awesome.

    Given that, what did you think of the New Yorker cartoon? I thought it was great, but as always, YMMV.
    posted by TedW at 7:08 AM on June 26, 2016 [3 favorites]


    The question of immigration is irrelevant. Limits to the free movement of labour aren't on the table. If we want to trade with the EU we have to accept it under whatever model we negotiate. If there's a model that doesn't include it... what is it?
    There are two other models as I see it:
    1. A separate free-trade agreement, like the one currently negotiated (but not yet ratified) between Canada and the EU (though I wish this deal did include freedom of movement).
    2. No free trade agreement, just standard WTO rules as for any other country without a special trade deal.
    posted by borsboom at 7:08 AM on June 26, 2016


    The view from Hartlepool
    posted by lalochezia at 7:10 AM on June 26, 2016


    The question of immigration is irrelevant. Limits to the free movement of labour aren't on the table. If we want to trade with the EU we have to accept it under whatever model we negotiate.

    True, but reducing immigration was one of the main goals, if not THE main goal of the Leave vote.
    And as the UK becomes a more unattractive place to live in, there will be less immigration.
    So... mission accomplished!
    posted by sour cream at 7:13 AM on June 26, 2016


    Sort of like getting the living room to yourself by taking a shit in the middle of the carpet?

    Masterful strategy.
    posted by Grangousier at 7:15 AM on June 26, 2016 [4 favorites]


    According to Sky, only 36% of the 18-24 age range bothered to vote, if more had turned out the result may have been very different.

    From here, joining the European Free Trade Association (EFTA) seems like the logical next step.
    posted by Lanark at 7:17 AM on June 26, 2016 [1 favorite]


    Given that, what did you think of the New Yorker cartoon?

    It said "You've hit the wall" but I managed to sneak in. Reminds me a little of this tweet that's been huge on my indian Facebook lately: "Meanwhile India is just blown away that you can get Britain to leave by voting".

    (via the same feed, the best tweet I've seen in ages: When I'm old & my ma is long dead, I'm going to look back on the day her rage was heard across the globe & be proud.)
    posted by effbot at 7:22 AM on June 26, 2016 [6 favorites]


    It has been argued that a Brexit wouldn't lower immigration because the UK would have to accept freedom of movement (of EU citizens) in order to trade with the EU.

    Is this true, though? Doesn't the US trade with the EU? I seem to recall that while it is somewhat easier for EU citizens to immigrate to America, it's not that much easier, as also expressed by some people upthread.
    posted by corb at 7:35 AM on June 26, 2016


    If somebody can figure out what the people in that video are supposed to do (personally or with their vote) so that they get a fair piece of the global economic pie, then we might finally find a cure to what ails us.

    Sure. But none of this actually addresses that. I agree wholeheartedly about those elites and the terrible things they've wrought on our increasingly marginalised communities, but this will change that situation not a bit. It was a vote to give up political status. That's all it was. It was interpreted as many other things, often quite fancifully, but the ballot paper only contained the question of whether to remain in or leave the EU.
    posted by Grangousier at 7:36 AM on June 26, 2016 [8 favorites]


    Is this true, though? Doesn't the US trade with the EU? I seem to recall that while it is somewhat easier for EU citizens to immigrate to America, it's not that much easier, as also expressed by some people upthread.

    Depends on the kind of deal they want. There's always WTO to fall back on. EU or EEA (=EU+EFTA) offers a lot more, but comes with anti-discrimination rules for goods, capital, services, and people.
    posted by effbot at 7:48 AM on June 26, 2016


    Is this true, though? Doesn't the US trade with the EU? I seem to recall that while it is somewhat easier for EU citizens to immigrate to America, it's not that much easier, as also expressed by some people upthread.

    My understanding is that trade within the EU is "freer" than between the EU and the US in that there are fewer regulations. In order to maintain the same trade conditions, the UK would have to accept freedom of movement (the EU has already indicated that this is not negotiable). If the UK does not accept this, they'll get less favorable conditions, say, the conditions under which the EU trades with Canada. So more red tape, making it generally more expensive to do trade with the UK.

    This would hurt the UK more than it would the EU, because the UK does >50% of all its trade with other EU countries. The reverse is not true. So the UK is not in a good bargaining position.
    posted by sour cream at 7:52 AM on June 26, 2016 [4 favorites]


    TBH I could use a cheeky Nando's right about now

    Maybe you should hurry...RIP Nando's?
    posted by biffa at 7:53 AM on June 26, 2016 [1 favorite]




    Is this true, though? Doesn't the US trade with the EU? I seem to recall that while it is somewhat easier for EU citizens to immigrate to America, it's not that much easier, as also expressed by some people upthread.

    The US and EU trade but don't have a free trade agreement. They trade under WTO rules. Free trade was what the TTIP was going to be about. It's not easier for EU citizens to move to the US. Again, that's what TTIP was going to be about. The only country with its own preferential visa as part of a free trade agreement is Australia which has the E-3 visa and even that is a non-immigrant visa. This was a reward that Bush gave Howard for being the US's lapdog during the Iraq War.
    posted by Talez at 7:56 AM on June 26, 2016 [3 favorites]


    "With one fell swoop yesterday at 9:15 am, Cameron effectively annulled the referendum result, and simultaneously destroyed the political careers of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and leading Brexiters who cost him so much anguish, not to mention his premiership."

    "How?"

    "Throughout the campaign, Cameron had repeatedly said that a vote for leave would lead to triggering Article 50 straight away. Whether implicitly or explicitly, the image was clear: he would be giving that notice under Article 50 the morning after a vote to leave. Whether that was scaremongering or not is a bit moot now but, in the midst of the sentimental nautical references of his speech yesterday, he quietly abandoned that position and handed the responsibility over to his successor."

    "And as the day wore on, the enormity of that step started to sink in: the markets, Sterling, Scotland, the Irish border, the Gibraltar border, the frontier at Calais, the need to continue compliance with all EU regulations for a free market, re-issuing passports, Brits abroad, EU citizens in Britain, the mountain of legistlation to be torn up and rewritten ... the list grew and grew."

    ...

    "The Conservative party election that Cameron triggered will now have one question looming over it: will you, if elected as party leader, trigger the notice under Article 50?"

    "Who will want to have the responsibility of all those ramifications and consequences on his/her head and shoulders?"
    (via)

    I'm particularly amused by the replies observing that the decision to leave was embraced by the rest of the E.U. who can now suspend the U.K., or sanction it under Article 7, for failing to trigger Article 50. In short, Europe is likely to throw the U.K. out for being such an awful member over the past decades. :)
    posted by jeffburdges at 7:57 AM on June 26, 2016 [5 favorites]


    UK, June 2016: "As these seem like incidents we should all be aware of I've made an album for them."
    One of them reads
    "Sad text from French friend: worst thing is that now France needs everything to go wrong for the UK, otherwise Le Pen will get stronger.."
    Sadly, this is how I feel as a Dutch citizen w.r.t. Geert Wilders.
    posted by borsboom at 8:10 AM on June 26, 2016 [14 favorites]


    I keep just remembering this is really happening and being stunned. And I'm getting more and more pissed off that here in NI, and also in Scotland, we voted to Remain and that just didn't count. If this is proof of how democratic the UK is, especially compared to the EU, then how come we were asked a question, we answered, and then we were told "tough shit it's happening anyway oh and by the way it might negatively impact your peace over there but to be honest we don't actually care".
    posted by billiebee at 8:12 AM on June 26, 2016 [28 favorites]


    Losing an election and still getting your way is the opposite of democracy.
    posted by JPD at 8:20 AM on June 26, 2016 [3 favorites]


    My point being our regional interests are as always irrelevant in the face of the Greater British interests. In this case our political, economic and security issues don't matter as long as the Tories can resolve their ideological struggles and the English can reassert some idea they have of what being British means (hint: mostly white).
    posted by billiebee at 8:25 AM on June 26, 2016 [10 favorites]


    My point being our regional interests are as always irrelevant in the face of the Greater British interests.

    yes, and a european countries' interests, say greece's, are as always irrelevant in the face of the greater EU interests

    which is why the pro-leave people voted as they did - they didn't want to be subjected to the rules or the identity of a greater whole

    and so we have a massive clusterfuck

    all i can say is that we need to find better ways to define and regulate national identity than this, because this looks awful
    posted by pyramid termite at 8:36 AM on June 26, 2016 [2 favorites]


    H. L. Shit.

    The Brexit campaign leaders really didn’t have *any* kind of plan for post-leave negotiations. Faisal Islam has just been Sky News: http://news.sky.com/video/1717859/islam-there-is-no-brexit-plan quoting a Conservative Leave MP & Boris backer: "there is no plan. Leave campaign don't have a post Brexit plan, Number 10 should have had one"

    "Number 10 should have had a plan". You have got to be shitting me.

    Boris, Gove and IDS should be charged with misfeasance in a public office. They have done more damage to the UK in pursuit of their narcisstic little england agenda than any politician for decade upon decade.

    I really cannot express how angry I am about this.
    posted by pharm at 8:36 AM on June 26, 2016 [62 favorites]


    Yeah access to the EU markets either happens with the EEA and I doubt the UK would get the weird Swiss rules.

    FTA I guess but that will presumably be superseded by TTIP although now that the UK is leaving the EU it's unclear how TTIP would work for you guys.

    WTO rules hahahaha enjoy getting totally boned

    I really don't understand the left argument in favor of exit. Currently the UK is dominated by Right leaning parties that are arguably even more likely to push a conservative agenda than the EU as a whole.

    The Tories at least have some sort of nationalist agenda to explain their preferences for exit but nationalism + socialism often work in counterproductive ways.

    I fail to see how the left expects the Tories to suddenly abandon monetarist policies for keynesian pump priming strategies. Especially when the UK economy implodes because it's no longer a industrial power house.

    So congratulations I guesd instead of the left pushing for increased quality of life across the entire eurozone you guys get to be divided. It's as if the idea that stronger together and collective bargaining didn't sink in.
    posted by vuron at 8:38 AM on June 26, 2016 [9 favorites]


    According to Sky, only 36% of the 18-24 age range bothered to vote, if more had turned out the result may have been very different.

    If this whole godawful mess ends up convincing young people on both sides of the Atlantic that it's important to actually use their votes, that would be one tiny straw of consolation. By staying away from the polls, all Sky's remaining 64% achieved was to ensure that old farts like me (58) decided their future for them instead.

    Same goes for Bernie supporters who engage in a fit of pique by refusing to vote for Hillary in November. If anyone tells you there's no need to vote against Trump because can't win anyway, just remember that's what many of us thought about the Brexiteers.
    posted by Paul Slade at 8:41 AM on June 26, 2016 [5 favorites]


    "Number 10 should have had a plan". You have got to be shitting me.

    "Don't blame me, blame the dipshits that I blindly trusted!"
    posted by tonycpsu at 8:41 AM on June 26, 2016 [1 favorite]


    Of course they didn't have a plan. This was about fending off the UKIPs and dividing Labour.

    A political bluff meant to advance BoGo but never intended to be called. Of course the proles did it anyway the absolute madmen.
    posted by vuron at 8:42 AM on June 26, 2016 [4 favorites]


    "Number 10 should have had a plan". You have got to be shitting me.
    In fairness, they are the ones who called the referendum and so yeah, they probably should have had a plan in case it didn't go their way!
    posted by borsboom at 8:42 AM on June 26, 2016 [3 favorites]


    I'd imagine they did have a plan and are sticking to it.

    Leave Victory, Plan A:
    PM announces "Fuck the lot of you, you work it out, bye."
    Fin.

    It's going quite well so far.
    posted by billiebee at 8:46 AM on June 26, 2016 [23 favorites]


    In fairness, they are the ones who called the referendum and so yeah, they probably should have had a plan in case it didn't go their way!

    They did. "You fucking figure it out. I'm off."
    posted by chimaera at 8:48 AM on June 26, 2016 [2 favorites]


    PM announces "Fuck the lot of you, you work it out, bye."

    This is so apt now.
    posted by Talez at 8:52 AM on June 26, 2016 [1 favorite]


    Those that are arguing for a change should be the ones who actually *have a plan to implement the change*. In these circumstances to do anything else is beyond mere incompetence, it’s practically mendacious.

    Gove & Boris should be kicked out of office, not standing for PM.
    posted by pharm at 8:53 AM on June 26, 2016 [2 favorites]




    Oh yeah, not saying Leave shouldn't have a plan. And you're right, I guess #10 did have a plan.
    posted by borsboom at 8:58 AM on June 26, 2016




    "You fucked up! You trusted us!"
    posted by tonycpsu at 9:20 AM on June 26, 2016 [9 favorites]


    Jeremy Corbyn has made his point. Now it’s time for Labour to move on

    Who will they be moving on to? Empty suit Andy Burnham? Quasi-Tory sneerer Chuka Umunna? Who exactly do the Labour party have to put forward who can demonstrate that they offer any kind of solution to the issues that led to Corbyn being overwhelmingly elected by his party? What is that solution? Do they even have anyone who understands the nature of the problem? Why did the poorest sections of UK society feel Miliband wasn't a possible alternative to a Tory party which had scapegoated them and stripped them of everything it could for five straight years? Why do they think Corbyn got all those votes and what is their plan to have their internal electorate pick an alternative that will be centrist in nature, when both the party and the national electorate seem to prefer the idea of alternatives to the centre ground.

    Who do Labour have who can fashion a solution which will enable them to make any kind of claim on Scottish votes, while remaking ground on UKIP in Eastern England and nailing down their traditional electorate in Northern England? No one, that's who they have and not a fucking clue.
    posted by biffa at 9:20 AM on June 26, 2016 [16 favorites]


    Hahaha.

    "We campaigned on stopping immigrants from coming to England but we really can't deliver. Sorry for the deception"

    So when UK firms relocate to the continent because it's better for their business and lots of middle class jobs disappear I guess the elites can still get Eastern Europeans to handle all the blue collar jobs.

    Of course that will just increase the perception that immigrants are the problem sending more working class Britons into the arms of the nationalist parties like UKIP because scapegoating the other is a great way to divide and conquer the underclass.

    But I guess Freedom isn't free or something stupid like that. It's just depressing to see the UK falling for the same sorts of identity politics that the Republicans have used to divide the American working class.
    posted by vuron at 9:20 AM on June 26, 2016 [6 favorites]


    biffa: Tom Watson?

    The problem with Corbyn isn’t so much his politics - although there are clearly issues there - but rather the man himself. He’s the living incarnation of the word "ineffectual". Politics is a contact sport not a field of gentlemanly conduct & if you can’t embrace that reality then you’re not fit to be leader.
    posted by pharm at 9:28 AM on June 26, 2016 [3 favorites]


    Labour is fucked of course. Corbyn would get hammered in a snap election and it seems like Labour is looking around for someone who could at least stem the bleeding.

    Of course the Tory leadership is in disarray as well because nobody wants to be the one stuck pulling the lever on article 50.

    But it's basically a given that Labour will be more dysfunctional than the right any time that there is an opportunity to improve vs the right.

    And of course if Scotland jumps ship back to the EU because Britain and Wales are full of racist dickbags then Labour is permanently fucked. People will look back on the Thatcher period with warm memories in comparison to the mess the UK will be without Scotland providing a moderating force.
    posted by vuron at 9:30 AM on June 26, 2016 [1 favorite]


    It turns out the "redo" petition is being massively signed by bots.

    This may have been an effort by the legendary "Anonymous". In any case, there's boasting about it on 4chan.
    posted by Chocolate Pickle at 9:34 AM on June 26, 2016


    billiebee said:
    My point being our regional interests are as always irrelevant in the face of the Greater British interests. In this case our political, economic and security issues don't matter as long as the Tories can resolve their ideological struggles and the English can reassert some idea they have of what being British means (hint: mostly white).

    pyramid termite said:
    yes, and a european countries' interests, say greece's, are as always irrelevant in the face of the greater EU interests
    which is why the pro-leave people voted as they did - they didn't want to be subjected to the rules or the identity of a greater whole


    The thing is that "greater EU interests" are far less monolithic than the interests of the Tory elite. We had some experience of that in Ireland, where after centuries of being subjected to English interests, we became an independent country. But in practice, our economy was so small and so tied to the UK that economically, our power to do anything was actually very limited.

    When we joined the EU, we gave up some degree of sovereignty, but we got a seat at the table, and we were now part of a bloc where British interests were balanced by others. Between the Council of Ministers and the Commission, the smaller EU countries actually have an influence out of proportion to their size - the democratically elected European Parliament is actually where the smaller states have least chance of influencing events. Think of the US comparison, where the Senate representation gives smaller states a bigger seat at the table than the House of Representatives.

    Anyway, I think the practice of the British press and politicians of presenting every issue as being "Us versus the EU" totally obscured the fact that on any particular point, the UK usually had at least one ally, and usually a bloc. Working within the EU, they have actually been successful in their efforts an awful lot of the time (too bad that a lot of those efforts were to pull the EU rightwards). Once they leave, it really will be "Us against the EU" for them on every issue, and I think we will all see the difference.
    posted by Azara at 9:44 AM on June 26, 2016 [19 favorites]


    Is this true, though? Doesn't the US trade with the EU? I seem to recall that while it is somewhat easier for EU citizens to immigrate to America, it's not that much easier, as also expressed by some people upthread.

    Another way to see this is that the way the UK and France trade now, inside the EU, is a lot closer to how California and Oregon trade than it is to how the US and France trade. After they leave the EU, sure, the UK and France will still trade... but, unless they negotiate a specific deal with the EU, they'll trade like the US and France do. Which will absolutely fuck a bunch of the economy that's come to rely on (or are part of) supply chains that depend on trade that's free like California/Oregon, not free like US/France.
    posted by ROU_Xenophobe at 9:45 AM on June 26, 2016 [5 favorites]


    Jesus, everything you need to know about western democracies today is mentioned up-thread: The idea that a certain level of unemployment (ie, hardship for people) is considered good because it benefits corporations (ie, vehicles to avoid liability and shelter taxes for the rich) by keeping wages low.

    Unemployment has been brought up several times in the thread along with citations of unemployment statistics, but without much apparent understanding of what those statistics mean. I think most of us when we think of "unemployment" think of people who have been out of work for months or years and are desperate for a job. This is definitely a bad thing. But it's not what unemployment statistics measure. Economists call this "structural unemployment," and it is only a subset (and generally an unmeasured subset) of the total unemployment statistics. Unemployment statistics also include people who recently left their job but will find a new one relatively quickly. Some of these are people who were fired for a variety of reasons including poor performance or poor fit; arguably this type of unemployment is morally neutral. And some of these are people who quit their jobs with an expectation to find a better job after a period of looking; arguably this type of unemployment is a good thing. Economists call these shorter-term forms of unemployment "frictional unemployment," and at any given time in a modern economy there should be a certain level of this type of unemployment; otherwise it means people are trapped in their current jobs with no hope of improvement. And finally, our common-sense notion of unemployment usually includes people who have been without work for so long that they've basically given up looking, but economists don't technically consider this to be "unemployment" because these people have supposedly left the labor market entirely.

    So basically, unemployment statistics simply don't measure what most people think they do. A certain level of unemployment is considered good not because it keeps wages low (in fact I think it has the opposite effect) but because a certain level of frictional unemployment is neutral-to-good, and very low overall unemployment tends to be tied to inflation. And figures showing that there are a million British people unemployed at any given time doesn't translate to a million British people "on the dole." Rather, many of those million people happen to be in a temporary period of transition between jobs. How many? I don't know, the unemployment figures don't tell us. And, there's an unknown number of British people who have given up looking for work, and the unemployment figures don't tell us that, either. The one thing that is pretty clear from the figures marienbad keeps linking is that there's basically no relationship between total measured unemployment and immigration in Britain.

    Statistics are useful because they help distill complex phenomena to simple quantities, but they are dangerous because they only capture those aspects of the complex phenomena they are designed to address.

    IANAEconomist, TINEconomicA.
    posted by biogeo at 9:51 AM on June 26, 2016 [37 favorites]


    Tories simply didn't have a Brexit plan, the only person in UK politics at the moment who has any credible clue is apparently Nicola Sturgeon. Astounding piece on Sky News two hours ago.
    posted by the cydonian at 9:51 AM on June 26, 2016 [2 favorites]


    Relevant XKCD
    posted by T.D. Strange at 9:53 AM on June 26, 2016 [16 favorites]


    I really don't understand the left argument in favor of exit.

    The EU is a neoliberal octopus that is menacing Lady Liberty Europa, and disrupting it will be, in the long term, good for everyone.

    At least that's what I get after I sift out the unbearable sneering, unexamined nativism, etc.
    posted by nom de poop at 10:00 AM on June 26, 2016 [7 favorites]


    Tom Watson?

    Tom is back from Glastonbury and has issued a statement. TL;DR as per the G: "declines to endorse Corbyn’s leadership; Labour needs to be “an effective opposition”; predicts an early general election." More analysis in the link.
    posted by effbot at 10:01 AM on June 26, 2016


    Leave Victory, Plan A:
    PM announces "Fuck the lot of you, you work it out, bye."
    Fin.


    From David Mitchell’s opinion piece on the referendum last month:
    We’ve stopped looking to MPs to display great intelligence, insight, fortitude or a cool head in a crisis. Now they just get to shrug and say “It’s tricky, isn’t it?” “Vote for me, I think it’s tricky too!”

    They won’t step up and lead. They won’t say they know. Expertise is dismissed as elitist. It’s worse to be “out of touch” with the price of milk than to misunderstand the consequences of Britain suddenly severing all its trade deals.
    posted by bitteschoen at 10:08 AM on June 26, 2016 [17 favorites]


    In that Telegraph article already linked above
    The EU will treat Britain like Greece
    Matthew Holehouse seems to be setting up the position that Brexit would be fine except that the EU are going to be nasty.

    One really depressing thing, if true (which is always debatable with the British press), is where he describes what Whitehall civil servants were allowed to do:
    A ban issued from Downing Street on Brexit preparations – lest it boost the leave campaign – meant Britain’s most senior officials were permitted to “think” about a Brexit, but not allowed to write anything down.
    (his italics)

    People here have been working seriously on contingency plans, and we're not the ones leaving.
    posted by Azara at 10:09 AM on June 26, 2016 [1 favorite]


    Come on BaggyMP your country needs you!
    posted by fullerine at 10:09 AM on June 26, 2016


    It turns out the "redo" petition is being massively signed by bots.

    This may have been an effort by the legendary "Anonymous". In any case, there's boasting about it on 4chan.


    That second article is written by Louise "I'm The Opposite Of A" Mench so I'll take it with a pinch of salt.
    posted by billiebee at 10:10 AM on June 26, 2016 [2 favorites]


    Theresa Villiers is a fucking moron and this is my shocked face.
    posted by billiebee at 10:13 AM on June 26, 2016 [7 favorites]


    Analysis: Tom Watson is positioning himself to replace Jeremy Corbyn this week as a caretaker Labour leader - perhaps with a view to grabbing the job permanently. At least, that’s what his statement implies.

    Called it.

    Boris is *still* AWOL, as is Gove.
    posted by pharm at 10:15 AM on June 26, 2016 [2 favorites]


    Boris is still AWOL, as is Gove.

    Boris might be stuck in a car, somewhere.
    posted by effbot at 10:21 AM on June 26, 2016


    Fairly sure that one of the clauses of the Feb treaty stated clearly that a 'LEAVE' vote in the referendum would nullify it.

    But that sort of goes to my point that the EU parliamentarians are acting like bullies. Basically what that says is that the populace of a country are forbidden to have any voice, even in the case of an nonbinding referendum, lest they be immediately punished. How is that not profoundly undemocratic?
    posted by SecretAgentSockpuppet at 10:24 AM on June 26, 2016 [1 favorite]


    Just realised if Theresa May succeeds Cameron then Carwyn Jones will be the only male leader in the UK. Yes I am frantically looking for a silver lining why do you ask
    posted by billiebee at 10:25 AM on June 26, 2016 [5 favorites]


    But that sort of goes to my point that the EU parliamentarians are acting like bullies

    Another way to look at it is as if an entire nation had never heard the expression "you can't have your cake and eat it".
    posted by billiebee at 10:27 AM on June 26, 2016 [18 favorites]


    How is that not profoundly undemocratic?

    Democracy doesn't include a codicil requiring third parties affected by your votes to act like enablers.
    posted by fatbird at 10:28 AM on June 26, 2016 [13 favorites]


    Another way to look at it is as if an entire nation had never heard the expression "you can't have your cake and eat it".

    Or "either shit or get off the pot".
    posted by Talez at 10:28 AM on June 26, 2016


    Does Tom Watson deserve hyperbolic internet memery?
    posted by Apocryphon at 10:31 AM on June 26, 2016 [1 favorite]


    Why would anyone shit in a pot?
    posted by Grangousier at 10:31 AM on June 26, 2016 [3 favorites]


    But that sort of goes to my point that the EU parliamentarians are acting like bullies. Basically what that says is that the populace of a country are forbidden to have any voice, even in the case of an nonbinding referendum, lest they be immediately punished. How is that not profoundly undemocratic?

    Again, those treaty amendments were the remain alternative. You voted against them, hence they no longer apply to you. How is that not profoundly democratic?
    posted by effbot at 10:33 AM on June 26, 2016 [12 favorites]


    Why would anyone shit in a pot?

    When they don't have indoor plumbing you elitist, futurist snob.
    posted by Talez at 10:33 AM on June 26, 2016 [17 favorites]


    I disagree, because the vote was nonbinding. There is no cake. This was an opinion poll, for all intents, legally. The treaty forbade even allowing Brits express an opinion without sanction.
    posted by SecretAgentSockpuppet at 10:34 AM on June 26, 2016 [1 favorite]


    But why a pot? Are they going to preserve it in case winter comes round and they've run out of fresh shit?
    posted by Grangousier at 10:35 AM on June 26, 2016 [3 favorites]


    Chamber pot.
    posted by Ilira at 10:36 AM on June 26, 2016 [3 favorites]


    But why a pot? Are they going to preserve it in case winter comes round and they've run out of fresh shit?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chamber_pot
    posted by effbot at 10:36 AM on June 26, 2016 [1 favorite]


    I disagree, because the vote was nonbinding. There is no cake. This was an opinion poll, for all intents, legally. The treaty forbade even allowing Brits express an opinion without sanction.

    Then Mr Cameron and co shouldn't have let that provision into the treaty? It wasn't a unilateral decree by unelected bureaucrats in Brussels. The UK's representatives also entered into it.

    But why a pot?

    Because it's got handles to carry the shit outside you twat!
    posted by Talez at 10:36 AM on June 26, 2016 [7 favorites]


    Oh. I thought you meant some kind of jam jar.
    posted by Grangousier at 10:37 AM on June 26, 2016 [5 favorites]


    In what universe is a jar a pot?
    posted by Talez at 10:37 AM on June 26, 2016 [5 favorites]


    when it's not a door

    wait hold on
    posted by cortex at 10:38 AM on June 26, 2016 [47 favorites]


    Bdmm Tschh!
    posted by Grangousier at 10:40 AM on June 26, 2016


    Having eaten "potted meat" from UK supermarkets I'm not surprised by your confusion, Grangousier.
    posted by howfar at 10:40 AM on June 26, 2016 [9 favorites]


    Now I know I've been in the states for a while and I've caught a bit of their vernacular like saying "sweater" instead of "jumper" and "jelly donut" instead of "jam donut" but I'm 100% positive that a jar is a jar and a pot is a pot in both the states and the Commonwealth.
    posted by Talez at 10:41 AM on June 26, 2016 [1 favorite]


    Oh, it all makes sense now.

    Ugh.

    Anyway, Europocalypse...
    posted by Grangousier at 10:41 AM on June 26, 2016 [1 favorite]


    Fairly sure that one of the clauses of the Feb treaty stated clearly that a 'LEAVE' vote in the referendum would nullify it.

    But that sort of goes to my point that the EU parliamentarians are acting like bullies. Basically what that says is that the populace of a country are forbidden to have any voice, even in the case of an nonbinding referendum, lest they be immediately punished. How is that not profoundly undemocratic?


    The referendum choice was either accept the Feb treaty and stay, or reject the Feb treaty and leave. The voters chose the latter. Taking away the concessions of the treaty isn't punishment by the EU- it's what UK voters wanted and chose for themselves.
    posted by rocket88 at 10:43 AM on June 26, 2016 [6 favorites]


    Corbyn would get hammered in a snap election

    This is 22nd June thinking. Everything is up for grabs now. Corbyn has been eloquent and perceptive in his comments about those who voted Leave.
    posted by Coda Tronca at 10:43 AM on June 26, 2016 [2 favorites]


    It says:
    This Decision shall take effect on the same date as the Government of the United Kingdom informs the Secretary-General of the Council that the United Kingdom has decided to remain a member of the European Union.
    That wording does seem to imply that, should the UK end up deciding to remain a member of the EU despite the referendum, The Decision would take effect.
    posted by borsboom at 10:45 AM on June 26, 2016


    This was an opinion poll, for all intents, legally.

    Are you trying to say the PM doesn't speak for the sitting government? Because the EU sure thinks he does, and here's what he said on Friday:
    The British people have voted to leave the European Union and their will must be respected. [...]
    The will of the British people is an instruction that must be delivered. It was not a decision that was taken lightly, not least because so many things were said by so many different organisations about the significance of this decision.
    So there can be no doubt about the result.
    Sure, Cameron can still go to Brussels and say "oops, I misspoke, can we go back to the remain option" but what mandate does he have for that at this point, and how would that be more democratic?
    posted by effbot at 10:48 AM on June 26, 2016 [1 favorite]


    That wording does seem to imply that, should the UK end up deciding to remain a member of the EU despite the referendum, The Decision would take effect.

    That's from paragraph 2 of the European Council conclusions. But paragraph 4 is the important one here:
    4. It is understood that, should the result of the referendum in the United Kingdom be for it to leave the European Union, the set of arrangements referred to in paragraph 2 above will cease to exist.
    Paragraph 4 is not at all ambiguous or vague in the way that paragraph 2 is.
    posted by Jonathan Livengood at 10:52 AM on June 26, 2016 [10 favorites]


    Imagine your boss offering you a raise to keep you after you threaten to leave. After weighing up the offer you come back and say "No I've decided to quit. It's not enough money, I'm sick of being told what to do, you don't give a shit about me, you in your ivory tower. Your ideas, sir, are no better than Hitler and I'll be better off on my own."
    "Fine" says your boss. "I respect your decision. Of course I'll need that in writing asap."
    "That's a bit rude isn't it? Verging on bullying I'd say. I'm planning on staying another few months as it happens. And while we're on the subject, I expect the offer of the raise still stands?"
    posted by billiebee at 10:52 AM on June 26, 2016 [81 favorites]


    The EU can say whatever they like. The referendum is *not* binding on Parliament unless and until Parliament says it is. If the EU wants to kick the UK out then they can start invoking Article 7 to force the UK to act. Otherwise the UK begins the process of leaving the EU when the PM invokes Article 50 of the Convention & not before.
    posted by pharm at 10:53 AM on June 26, 2016 [1 favorite]


    This was an opinion poll

    Jesus Christ. The people have spoken. Not the media or the corporations or the political elite. The people. At least acknowledge it, even if you don't like what they chose.
    posted by Coda Tronca at 10:54 AM on June 26, 2016 [4 favorites]


    “The people have spoken, the bastards.” — Dick Tuck

    What the people think they voted for & what the people are going to get are going to be two very different things regardless of whether we actually leave the EU.
    posted by pharm at 10:56 AM on June 26, 2016 [9 favorites]


    What the people think they voted for & what the people are going to get are going to be two very different things

    ...which you could have said about any election in a mature western democracy in the last few decades. I think they voted in Obama for 'hope'.
    posted by Coda Tronca at 10:57 AM on June 26, 2016 [2 favorites]


    Quick reality check - I think Corbyn is the most honest and decent man that has ever held a senior political position in the last half century. If there is a leadership vote I'd almost certainly pick him again because he is literally the only pol pushing against austerity and we all know that's the problem, right?

    So here's the thing - he doesn't like the media and he doesn't do sound bites. How does he get his message out?

    My experience with the majority of the racist right wing working class (UKIP, EDL et al) is that they support Keynesian economics when it suits them but they fundamentally won't vote Labour any more.

    If there is one thing this referendum has shown it is that the vast majority of folks don't know a fucking thing about anything. They don't know which sources to trust, where to get information and so on. What percentage of voters will go for Corbyn? The media won't let him talk and they won't provide useful analysis of his positions vs the status quo.

    So if not Jez then who? I don't trust Tom any more (sorry!) Who else could stand against UKIP (the Tories are spent IMO) and who else can sell an anti austerity position?
    posted by longbaugh at 11:02 AM on June 26, 2016 [5 favorites]


    So here's the thing - he doesn't like the media and he doesn't do sound bites. How does he get his message out?


    That's an easy one - his enormous and totally committed social media following is what has made him the leader, and it's precisely this that the BBC et al cannot cope with.
    posted by Coda Tronca at 11:06 AM on June 26, 2016 [1 favorite]


    Quick reality check - I think Corbyn is the most honest and decent man that has ever held a senior political position in the last half century.

    That’s great, but the man has so far demonstrated himself to be incapable of inspiring any kind of following outside of his initial circle of left-wing cheerleaders. It *does* *not* matter if his policies are the best thing since sliced bread if he is incapable of getting that message across to the electorate. You can see by the way Labour MPs who initially supported him have started to peel off that they have come to exactly the same conclusion.

    This is politics. The right policies mean nothing without the power to implement them.
    posted by pharm at 11:07 AM on June 26, 2016 [4 favorites]


    Right - so who else is there? Without PR the Greens are DOA. Who else is selling anti austerity with a loud enough voice?
    posted by longbaugh at 11:11 AM on June 26, 2016


    Eurocrats seem determined to provide Leavers with all the retrospective justification they could possibly ask for -- how is this remotely rational behavior on their part?

    By now I guess I should be over my amazement at how closely politics at the highest level seems to replicate the dynamics of an average street gang, but goodness!
    posted by jamjam at 11:25 AM on June 26, 2016 [3 favorites]


    They don't want to have to deal with similar demands from the rest of Europe, that's how. If they give in to the British threat of an exit, they'll have to give something to everybody else as well.

    Huh, not being the problem child in the European family for a while feels kind of weird.
    posted by Dr Dracator at 11:29 AM on June 26, 2016 [4 favorites]


    The treaty forbade even allowing Brits express an opinion without sanction.

    Democracy doesn't happen in a vacuum.
    posted by fatbird at 11:34 AM on June 26, 2016


    The treaty forbade even allowing Brits express an opinion without sanction.

    The "poor us" narrative coming from the side that fucking won is making me sick.
    posted by billiebee at 11:38 AM on June 26, 2016 [50 favorites]


    The EU wishes to avoid further days of 5-10% movements on all of their stock markets. Frankly, as inconvenient as it is to the very strong remainer that I am, I can very much see how much people want us to stop causing that kind of chaos during a slow burn refugee and Greek crisis.
    posted by jaduncan at 11:38 AM on June 26, 2016 [3 favorites]


    Who else is selling anti austerity with a loud enough voice?

    Vote #1 quidnunc kid?
    posted by urbanwhaleshark at 11:40 AM on June 26, 2016 [9 favorites]


    They don't want to have to deal with similar demands from the rest of Europe, that's how. If they give in to the British threat of an exit, they'll have to give something to everybody else as well.

    this is why i suspect there's not much future ahead for the EU - the fault lines have been showing for a long time and the british, in the long run, may have done the right thing for the wrong reasons
    posted by pyramid termite at 11:41 AM on June 26, 2016 [2 favorites]


    Europe as a collection of individual and separate nation-states acting in their own interests has been a continuous succession of brutal and bloody wars. I don't see how a return to that could be the right thing.
    posted by rocket88 at 11:47 AM on June 26, 2016 [19 favorites]


    Quick reality check - I think Corbyn is the most honest and decent man that has ever held a senior political position in the last half century.

    How soon we forget Robin Cook.
    posted by My Dad at 11:49 AM on June 26, 2016 [7 favorites]


    Could this be a path to render the unfortunate referendum outcome moot:

    Both main parties are caught in leadership challenges. Immediate general election. A reborn Labour makes common cause with LibDems, anyone but leaver-Tories on a single issue: remaining. This coalition receives such a majority that the case for a second referendum to deliver the correct answer makes itself. And democracy lives to fight another (CGI) day.
    posted by stonepharisee at 11:51 AM on June 26, 2016 [1 favorite]


    It turns out the "redo" petition is being massively signed by bots.

    This may have been an effort by the legendary "Anonymous". In any case, there's boasting about it on 4chan.


    According to your link, fewer than 100K signatures out of more than 3 million have been found to be invalid. Not sure that necessarily constitutes "massively."
    posted by dersins at 11:52 AM on June 26, 2016 [3 favorites]


    Corbyn has been eloquent and perceptive in his comments about those who voted Leave.

    He probably voted leave himself, so that's not very surprising.

    (The only thing I've seen from him after the referendum was that clip where he looks like a very confused and slightly scared owl and mumbles "I did my best" when confronted by a heckler at pride, which didn't strike me as especially eloquent. But I'm sure he sounded better when talking to the already converted :-)
    posted by effbot at 12:00 PM on June 26, 2016


    ...which you could have said about any election in a mature western democracy in the last few decades. I think they voted in Obama for 'hope'.

    Ok, but the equivalent here is Obama standing up immediately after he won in 2008 and saying "I know a lot of you voted for me because you wanted 'hope' and wanted 'change.' I am here tonight to say that there will be absolutely no hope and no change. Shut it down. Obama out."

    Now did we all get the hope and change everybody wanted? Not really. There was a recession, the time we collectively voted in a bunch of obstructionist right-wingers who shut the government down in protest of Obamacare, we point where Obama turned out to embrace the national security state more than we had feared, etc...

    But at least we weren't told the whole thing was a bunch of lies two goddamn hours after it ended. Because that's what actually happened here. Farage went on Good Morning Britain and described a major part of the Leave campaign, one he participated in spreading, one so central to the campaign they painted it on the side of a giant bus, as a mistake. A few hours later, Leave campaigners admitted the UK might have to keep free movement, despite control of immigration being the centerpiece of the campaign.

    It took less than two hours for the wheels to come off the bus. The lies that were revealed after the referendum were over things any remotely informed voter could have concluded by listening to any of the much distrusted experts who said as much. No election fulfills all its promises, but usually it takes far more than a few hours to realize that.
    posted by zachlipton at 12:04 PM on June 26, 2016 [56 favorites]


    I understand that the EU is some sort of neoliberal bugaboo to the left but what are you trading that for? Neoliberal Tories most likely. Is there really any indication that the Tories will actually abandon austerity? What are the chances that Labour can actually deliver a strong enough majority to adopt Keynesian policies?

    Seems like a long shot at best and people are willing to risk a whole lot of damage to the economy in order to bet on a long shot.

    What's amusing is that the politicians seemed to think blackmailing the EU was a compelling threat but the response has basically been a decided go have fun by yourself coming out of Brussels, Berlin and Paris.

    Hollande and Merkel seem secure enough that they can pretty much tell Westminster to fuck off
    posted by vuron at 12:06 PM on June 26, 2016 [5 favorites]


    A reborn Labour makes common cause with LibDems, anyone but leaver-Tories on a single issue: remaining. This coalition receives such a majority that the case for a second referendum to deliver the correct answer makes itself.

    As for coalitions, Mason's Labour/SNP/Greens/Plaid proposal and a centrist-Labour/LibDem/centrist-Tory combo are the alternatives I've seen mentioned.

    Right now SNP looks like the only actually functional party, so maybe you should just let them run the show for a bit.
    posted by effbot at 12:06 PM on June 26, 2016 [2 favorites]


    Wasn't Corbyn already vulnerable following the terrible Labour council election results had and the ineffective investigation into anti-Semitism amongst Labour-ites? If the result had been Remain then I can see people ignoring his ho-hum attitude to campaigning in the referendum, but seeing as it's Exit is anyone surprised that the massive target on his back now has a laser red dots all over it?
    posted by PenDevil at 12:09 PM on June 26, 2016




    Eurocrats seem determined to provide Leavers with all the retrospective justification they could possibly ask for -- how is this remotely rational behavior on their part?

    "Eurocrats"? Why the name calling? The people that have spoken on that matter were Juncker and (elected president of the European parliament) Schulz. Why not call them "European politicians"?
    Next up: Dismissing them as Nazis.
    posted by sour cream at 12:18 PM on June 26, 2016 [7 favorites]


    Jesus, everything you need to know about western democracies today is mentioned up-thread: The idea that a certain level of unemployment (ie, hardship for people) is considered good because it benefits corporations (ie, vehicles to avoid liability and shelter taxes for the rich) by keeping wages low.

    I want to come back to this, because it's important. Yes, interest rates and other economic levers are essentially set to maintain a certain amount of unemployment and central banks are often more consumed with preventing inflation than preventing unemployment. Those levers are pulled by people who tend to represent big banks and capital interests and aren't generally trusted with the welfare of workers. There's an inherent incentive for them to keep unemployment on the higher side, lest workers start asking for a raise.

    But the economic theory on which this is based, which is one of the fundamental theories behind how central banks work, is the link between unemployment rates and inflation. Economists accept and intend, messed up as it may be, that there will be a certain level of unemployment in exchange for economic stability.

    And yes, this sucks for the people who find themselves unemployed. That's precisely where unemployment benefits come from. Unemployment benefits aren't simply a liberal feel-good social program: they compensate, at least partially, the unlucky people who are out of work. They're supposed to be part of a bargain: workers have a safety net against job loss, and capital gets the benefits of lower inflation and greater worker mobility. That's why it's so infuriating when the Right cuts benefits for jobseekers: they're changing one side of that bargain without touching the other.
    posted by zachlipton at 12:25 PM on June 26, 2016 [41 favorites]


    The 'heckler' at Pride has been fully exposed as a paid PR professional Blairite.

    In the run up to the publication of the Chilcot Report on the Iraq war, these animals will do everything they can. We've all seen 'House of Cards', right?
    posted by Coda Tronca at 12:29 PM on June 26, 2016 [4 favorites]


    "So basically, unemployment statistics simply don't measure what most people think they do. A certain level of unemployment is considered good not because it keeps wages low (in fact I think it has the opposite effect) but because a certain level of frictional unemployment is neutral-to-good, and very low overall unemployment tends to be tied to inflation."

    I may not be following your argument correctly, but it seems a bit muddled. You're quite right to note that a) the common intuition that "unemployment" is equivalent to "people who are not employed" is incorrect both technically and qualitatively (are stay-at-home parents "unemployed"?), and that b) even within the category of what is technically understood as unemployment, this includes several different kinds of things, some which we'd probably agree are good (such as people transitioning to better or higher-paying jobs) and some that we'd probably agree are bad. So a blanket idea that "unemployment" is a bad thing that any decent person would want to eliminate entirely, and that it's only tolerated because it benefits the wealthy, is very wrong-headed.

    Structural unemployment, by the way, is understood to be unemployment that is created by a market failure -- such as a huge surplus of unemployed steelworkers without training to do anything else. If you're on the side of labor and not the capitalists, you should be careful with this idea because it's often used to justify tolerating high unemployment rates, usually with accompanying implicit or explicit moral claims that it's the government's fault (policy has interfered with the market correctly matching industry with skilled labor) or it's the fault of the unemployed individual for making "foolish" decisions. Any claims that structural unemployment accounts for the bulk of unemployment requires evidence of those supposed large sectors that are genuinely starved for workers -- in other words, with structural unemployment, for every unemployed worker without the skills for a good job, there's a job without a skilled worker which necessarily means that wages would be rapidly rising for that job as it desperately seeks a worker. If someone tries to argue that the unemployment is structural, ask them to show evidence of rising wages in the sectors that are presumed to be starving for workers.

    Note that it is the consensus of European policymakers that unemployment in Europe is primarily "structural".

    Anyway, to go back to the claim that tolerating any unemployment is oppressive to workers, history demonstrates that this is false. And it's obviously false for exactly the same reason that people (correctly) argue that unemployment favors the wealthy by suppressing wages. There's clearly a limit to this in that direction, as unemployment that is sufficiently high ends up with more and more broke people, suppressing demand, and then the capitalists go bankrupt. The wealthy want unemployment high enough to keep wages from rising, but not too high such that the economy collapses. But you can see how the argument works in reverse, too. Workers want unemployment to be low so that they can find jobs and have good bargaining power for good wages, but as unemployment approaches zero then the competition for workers causes wages to rise rapidly, which in turn causes prices to rise, inflation, and when inflation is sufficiently high, even when it's fully demand-driven, it also can trigger economic collapse. Those of us who know enough recognize that a certain amount of inflation isn't harmful to workers, but I think most workers instinctively distrust inflation and the higher it goes, the more unhappy they get. Historically, government policy (anywhere in the world) that attempts to push unemployment to zero becomes dramatically inflationary as the rate approaches zero, and not linearly. Going from 6% to 5% doesn't do much to the inflation rate, but going from 2% to 1% is calamitous.

    In sum, a small amount of unemployment and a small amount of inflation is best for everyone. Where all the argument arises is which side of this government policy believes is most important. Favoring low inflation over low unemployment is to favor the wealthy over the workers, and vice-versa.

    Note that while the US's central bank has a so-called "dual mandate" to consider both inflation and unemployment when setting monetary policy, the European Central Bank is directed by law to only consider inflation.
    posted by Ivan Fyodorovich at 12:37 PM on June 26, 2016 [23 favorites]


    Wasn't Corbyn already vulnerable following the terrible Labour council election results had and the ineffective investigation into anti-Semitism amongst Labour-ites?

    The latter was entirely manufactured outrage and the former he actually outperformed projections. The problem is that UKIP will smash Labour in the heartlands in the next GE and it appears that Labour have no plans to staunch this flow.
    posted by longbaugh at 12:40 PM on June 26, 2016 [4 favorites]


    It was interesting that not literally 5 minutes after Cameron had resigned, voices in the PLP were demanding Corbyn do the same. "Never let a good crisis go to waste."
    posted by My Dad at 12:43 PM on June 26, 2016 [1 favorite]


    Basically what that says is that the populace of a country are forbidden to have any voice, even in the case of an nonbinding referendum, lest they be immediately punished.

    What really puzzles me with this argument is how everyone seems to be convinced that an EU membership without Cameron's deal is so much worse than a membership with more UK-specific exceptions that it qualifies as a punishment for the people (rather than just a disappointed politician).

    I mean, if you look at the actual requests, there's plenty of perfectly decent things that Cameron desperately wanted to get rid of, like working hour regulations (UK hates that, like really really hates that, especially the fact that it "lays down minimum safety and health requirements" because having that is just horrible), the right of people who work and pay taxes in a country to get social security and child benefits from that country (UK hates that, because fucking foreigners coming here and paying taxes and... wait, what?), the right for anyone accused of a crime to refer to human rights issues in their defense (UK hates that, for selected, primarily non-white groups of people), etc.

    The EU may not have been a "socialist project" (modern mainland Europe has always been a mix of progressive and culturally conservative), but Cameron isn't your friend.
    posted by effbot at 12:45 PM on June 26, 2016 [30 favorites]


    I read somewhere reputable about a year ago that Len McCluskey (I think it was a direct quote) said that Unite and other trade unions would continue to nominate and support unelectable leaders like David Milliband until Labour formally and completely renounces the neoliberal policies of Blairism/New Labour.
    posted by My Dad at 12:47 PM on June 26, 2016


    My Dad: Given that he appears to have covertly sabotaged the campaign by the Labour Party for the UK to remain in the EU & thrown the country into disarray in the process, are you surprised? The overwhelming majority of Labour MPs are pro-remain & Corbyn’s support for the campaign was tepid enough to be wildly unheplful.

    If he had stood up and said that he was for Leave & the rest of the party were free to campaign according to their consciences then that would at least have been honest. But no, he pretends to be in and then doesn’t *do* anything while continually giving the impression that, no really, he’s going to be doing all sorts of stuff very soon, so don’t you worry about anything. Is it really any surprise after this that many Labour MPs have concluded that he has to go?
    posted by pharm at 12:52 PM on June 26, 2016 [4 favorites]


    if you look at the actual requests

    Do you have a link for that? (not being challengy I'm actually curious)
    posted by Grangousier at 12:52 PM on June 26, 2016


    NB My Dad. David Miliband was the one that lost. Ed Miliband was the one that became leader of the Labour party & then lost the GE.
    posted by pharm at 12:52 PM on June 26, 2016 [1 favorite]


    The latter was entirely manufactured outrage

    I can assure you that some people are actually legitimately concerned about anti-Semitism and find no need to manufacture any outrage over it.
    posted by zachlipton at 12:53 PM on June 26, 2016 [5 favorites]


    I totally understand the desire on the left to defend Corbyn and to be suspicious of those who criticize him, but as far as I can see, there's abundant evidence that Corbyn botched his leadership responsibility for Labour's advocacy of Remain, i.e., the emails from and regarding Seumas Milne.
    posted by Ivan Fyodorovich at 12:55 PM on June 26, 2016 [6 favorites]


    The 'heckler' at Pride has been fully exposed as a paid PR professional Blairite.

    Sure, but I was talking about Corbyn's reaction, not the heckler. Would he have looked less confused if it had been an amateur heckler?
    posted by effbot at 12:55 PM on June 26, 2016


    NB My Dad. David Miliband was the one that lost. Ed Miliband was the one that became leader of the Labour party & then lost the GE.

    Whoops, thanks for that!
    posted by My Dad at 12:58 PM on June 26, 2016






    Quick Q for the policy wonks: If Article 50 is triggered is an exit the only result? Could the outcome of the EU/UK negotiations it starts not be "we looked into it and it sucks for everyone so we're not going through with it"?
    posted by PenDevil at 1:05 PM on June 26, 2016


    So now the issue is not the content or the provenance of the paid-for Pride heckle, but how Corbyn looked?

    Jeremy Corbyn threatens economic ‘consequences’ for anti-gay countries

    One of the first MPs in Parliament to break ranks and vote for LGBT equality.

    posted by Coda Tronca at 1:08 PM on June 26, 2016


    Yes, interest rates and other economic levers are essentially set to maintain a certain amount of unemployment and central banks are often more consumed with preventing inflation than preventing unemployment.

    Whether independent central banks is a good or bad idea is a huge topic that deserves its own threads, but when I get too worried over how horrible the idea is, I tend to look at graphs like this (swedish inflation, the Mål middle line is the target) and realize that they're not really in control of anything anyway (and a bit later that makes me really worried, but that's another story).
    posted by effbot at 1:08 PM on June 26, 2016


    Pretty much all economist pretty much accept that full employment is impossible and even counterproductive to a degree. There are always going to be times when full employment is not achievable due to incompatibility between jobs available in a local economy and the number of workers looking for work.

    Structural unemployment is the more serious problem and traditionally the sort of market failure that liberal economists worry about. Historically Keynesian policies have been the preferred method of dealing with these issues but in the wake of stagflation in the 70s Keynes was perceived as flawed and monetarist policies became dominant on the world stage.

    Continued failures of pump priming in emerging markets was seen as negative as they resulted in unmanageable debt loads.

    However there is an appreciation that strict austerity strategies are also deficient it's just that acceptance if the limits of austerity is slow. Unfortunately for the UK there is a rush to abandon the EU before the ECBs were quite ready.
    posted by vuron at 1:10 PM on June 26, 2016 [3 favorites]


    Article 50 is not reversible. Once it is brought into play, the UK exits the EU within two years regardless of the outcome of negotiations.

    The deadline can be extended:

    The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.

    But to abort, you'd probably have to reapply.

    There's of course the option of not triggering the article, ever. There's kind of prior art for that with Sweden's switch to Euro, which (very simplified) they've agreed to at the treaty level (i.e. no explicit opt-out) and all that's left is to sign the papers for joining the ERM II, but nobody seems to have a pen.
    posted by effbot at 1:19 PM on June 26, 2016 [2 favorites]


    Quick Q for the policy wonks: If Article 50 is triggered is an exit the only result? Could the outcome of the EU/UK negotiations it starts not be "we looked into it and it sucks for everyone so we're not going through with it"?

    And ignore the will of the people? Are you nuts?

    Just think about how many years we'd all have to endure insufferably smug British politicians being all like "See? What'd I tell you? Totally undemocratic institution!"

    No, better get it over with quickly.
    Informed, ill-informed or not informed at all: The British people have spoken.
    posted by sour cream at 1:24 PM on June 26, 2016 [3 favorites]


    Just think about how many years we'd all have to endure insufferably smug British politicians being all like "See? What'd I tell you? Totally undemocratic institution!"

    Just imagine three million people living in the UK, many of them at the very bottom of the economic ladder, suddenly being assured they can continue to have a future.
    posted by Dysk at 1:27 PM on June 26, 2016 [14 favorites]


    Ian Duncan Smith is mystified where people got that £350m for NHS myth from.

    Ian Duncan Smith: "Our promises were a series of possibilities."

    What the people think they voted for & what the people are going to get are going to be two very different things

    ...which you could have said about any election in a mature western democracy in the last few decades. I think they voted in Obama for 'hope'.


    There are presidential elections every 4 years (and Congressional elections every 2) in the United States, and general elections every 5 in the UK. This provides people the ability to rectify their mistakes or regretted choices. How do the people do so with a referendum?

    As a fellow historian of mine said, reflecting on the Lord Ashcroft polling:

    maybe most striking of all, apart from Ukippers, most Leave voters thought that they would lose and that the vote would make little difference (in sharp contrast to Remainers) - suggesting for most this was a protest vote
    - conclusion (mine) - referenda are no fit way to decide on complex political questions of profound significance for a country's future

    posted by dhens at 1:28 PM on June 26, 2016 [4 favorites]




    Ugh, that is disgusting and unfortunately going to be more and more commonplace. Brexit was just lighting a fuse for a powder keg of extreme hate and now they feel empowered to hurt people to make others feel their "pain".

    Leave supporters might not all be racist but they sure as hell empowered the racists
    posted by vuron at 1:36 PM on June 26, 2016 [5 favorites]


    Just imagine three million people living in the UK, many of them at the very bottom of the economic ladder, suddenly being assured they can continue to have a future.

    I hear what you're saying, Dysk, but EU foreigners getting kicked out of the UK seems to be a rather unlikely scenario. More likely is only a minor variation of the current situation. Even the Leave people say so.

    Look at it that way: When planning your future, you don't want uncertainty. It's better to have this decided quickly than spending years in limbo wondering whether they'll kick you out eventually.
    posted by sour cream at 1:38 PM on June 26, 2016


    Just think about how many years we'd all have to endure insufferably smug British politicians being all like "See? What'd I tell you? Totally undemocratic institution!"

    I think the assumption was that the UK would abort. The EU won't (UK is a sunk cost at this point).

    But blaming the EU for your own mistakes is an old UK tradition so that doesn't rule out your scenario, of course :-)

    (that entire site is mostly just UK media lying, btw, either because the journalist is a Boris wannabe or because they're complete and utter idiots, as when interpreting the Pizza Napoletana TSG as a binding law for all pizza).
    posted by effbot at 1:42 PM on June 26, 2016


    EU foreigners getting kicked out of the UK seems to be a rather unlikely scenario. More likely is only a minor variation of the current situation. Even the Leave people say so.

    So remaining at the sufferance of the majority rather than through the power of international treaty.

    When planning your future, you don't want uncertainty. It's better to have this decided quickly than spending years in limbo wondering whether they'll kick you out eventually.

    This seems kind of gross.
    posted by dhens at 1:49 PM on June 26, 2016 [11 favorites]


    They don't want to have to deal with similar demands from the rest of Europe

    Frankly, a lot of us here in the rest of Europe ALSO don’t want to have to deal with similar disasters in our own countries. We may not all worship the Seven Gods of Brussels, but we’re not all voting for Le Pen or AfD or Golden Dawn down here, you know.

    The EU wishes to avoid further days of 5-10% movements on all of their stock markets. Frankly, as inconvenient as it is to the very strong remainer that I am, I can very much see how much people want us to stop causing that kind of chaos during a slow burn refugee and Greek crisis.

    ευχαριστώ! Thank you for saying that!

    Just in case someone forgot, the EU is also made of actual countries with actual people in it, people moving about and working and trading with each other, and with the UK... It’s not just a bunch of councils and commissions and technocratic elites in Brussels sitting around waiting to inflict pain and punishment and exemplary lessons. A lot of people in Europe do not want to be dragged into even more unnecessary political and economic chaos.
    posted by bitteschoen at 1:51 PM on June 26, 2016 [26 favorites]


    I hear what you're saying, Dysk, but EU foreigners getting kicked out of the UK seems to be a rather unlikely scenario. More likely is only a minor variation of the current situation. Even the Leave people say so.

    Look at it that way: When planning your future, you don't want uncertainty. It's better to have this decided quickly than spending years in limbo wondering whether they'll kick you out eventually.


    When planning my future I need to consider that my life savings don't amount to three digits, my income so far this year is literally zero (what with me - as an EU citizen having lived here over a decade, which is my entire adult life - not counting as "habitually resident" here if I'm not in full time employment, and being unable to work due to complications arising from a major surgery) and I can't even afford a coach to the airport and a Ryanair ticket. Added to that, as a Danish citizen not having lived there for over twenty years, I'm entitled to precisely jack shit there - and the medical expertise to get me back on my feet doesn't exist there. Uncertainty is better than certainty that I'd have to try and make an undocumented and illegal life. I have no support network anywhere but here, and right now I rely on it. The only assurances that anyone has offered this far is that things won't change "immediately". If I lose access to the NHS before I get to the front of a currently year-long (and growing!) waiting list, my life is effectively over. That is well within the "minor changes" promised - what with Cameron's deal having ensured I would be ineligible for council tax benefit and housing benefit even if and when I'm able to return to work, despite almost certainly needing it. I've never had a job that wasn't menial minimum wage work. My rights have been continually stripped bit by bit over the last few years in an attempt to appease the xenophobes who have just won the day. I'm trans. I'm not able to work. I'm poor. I have no wealth or income whatsoever. I'm reliant on the NHS to survive. The world is not my fucking oyster and I don't need certainty to consider my options because I DON'T HAVE OPTIONS.

    My case is unique, and it is not unique. There aren't three million people in situations like mine, but there are hundreds if not thousands.
    posted by Dysk at 2:00 PM on June 26, 2016 [22 favorites]


    Obviously, I could be mistaken from my vantage way over here across the Atlantic, but I really think that people are misinterpreting some of the signaling from European leaders. I'm strongly reminded of the rhetoric during Greece's negotiations and the referendum -- there was a fair amount of angry, hard-line rhetoric in Germany and elsewhere, but when it came right down to it, almost no one wanted to risk Grexit. The anger at Greece was real, the impatience and desire to punish Greece was real, the desire to just say "good riddance" was real, but in the end the fear of falling dominoes breaking the EU apart massively dominated what actually happened. I think this is all true with regard to Brexit.

    Furthermore, the hardline signaling back then with Greece was functional. It reinforced the troika's bargaining position.

    Imagine for the moment that the EU leaders are actually terrified at the implications of Brexit and would like nothing more than for this be reset. And they are terrified -- Brexit all on its own vastly undermines confidence in the European project. But also you have the Scotland issue -- could the EU refuse an independent Scotland? But what would an independent EU Scotland imply to all those other separatist movements in the EU? In every practical respect Brexit is a nightmare to the EU, even if they are damn tired of negotiating with the UK.

    But saying so doesn't do the EU any good right at this moment. Allowing publicly for the possibility that Article 50 won't be invoked also doesn't help. The referendum nullified the negotiated agreement, the EU doesn't want to be in this position again, so even if the desired outcome is to avoid Brexit, right now the best public stance is force Britain to come to terms with what Brexit will mean. There's little benefit to signaling that there's a way out of this mess, especially given that the UK leaders all seem very reluctant to push that button. In this light, the Juncker/Merkel responses make perfect sense to me. One is the bad cop, the other is saying we're going to step outside and get some coffee and you can think about what you're going to do next.

    This also explains why despite discussion here and elsewhere about Article 7, all the messaging in the last day has been unequivocal that there's no way for the EU to force Britain out. And the attorneys have argued that the referendum itself doesn't constitute official notice and no one has really been making that argument that strongly, anyway. The referendum was not binding on the government, the margin was moderately small and turnout was not huge, the majority of MPs don't want to Leave, and Article 50 isn't triggered until the government explicitly does so. If there is a huge institutional fear of Brexit everywhere and apparent ambivalence even on the part of Leave backers for triggering Article 50, then I am having trouble understanding why so many people are certain that it's inevitable.

    I similarly see some careful positioning by Sturgeon. Talking about a second referendum on Scottish independence and that possibly Holyrood could block Brexit puts enormous pressure on the government and Leave backers to think about what kind of disaster they are bringing on the UK. Saying that Scotland will block Brexit would be stupid -- that would be giving Johnson a lifejacket and telling him to go ahead and reap the political benefits of the vote and push the button and, if Brexit is blocked, the right can vilify Scotland. That's arguably the worst possible outcome. But what's she's saying both makes the high stakes very clear while also allowing that, if all else fails, there's one possible method of stopping this runaway train. And, of course, she's reassuring Scottish voters.

    People in the UK and in the EU are going to be forced to reckon what Brexit would ultimately mean. It's hard to see how a Norway kind of solution would be politically viable in the UK given that it would include a fair amount of economic disruption of Brexit while also failing to do anything about the things that the Leave voters actually cared about. Surely Article 50 negotiations that don't restrict immigration will just infuriate the UKIP right (and likeminded). But Scotland is trending strongly toward independence under Brexit and surely this would also include (eventually) EU membership, like Ireland. Meanwhile, Ireland and NI. This outcome would mean a controlled border between Ireland/NI and England/Scotland. These are just the regional implications of Brexit, which both the EU and Britain would have to deal with, and not even including the potential breakup of the EU that could be triggered. I think there is enormous pressure to somehow avoid Brexit that is not being accounted for.
    posted by Ivan Fyodorovich at 2:03 PM on June 26, 2016 [15 favorites]


    Hi, all! I was traveling when all this was going on so haven't had a chance to comment yet. When the results came in, we spent a day crying, a day discussing job openings in other countries, and the remaining time frantically trying to read the tea leaves to figure out what's going to happen. Here is our low-level, ignorant view as immigrants to Scotland of possible ways this could all go down in the end:

    1) The "Norway". The UK technically leaves the EU, but pays in to continue to function as an EU and EEA member in all ways that matter except they no longer get a vote in any EU concerns. In many ways, this would be one of the least-bad ways to go for the UK as a whole after the vote in terms of real effects. Although it would also, of course, be completely stupid, and would fail to make any political side in this issue happy. Because of that, I do not know what the likelihood of it is.

    2) The "Netherlands". Westminster effectively says, "Thank you for your stupid opinion, UK citizens, and thanks be to all that is holy that this was a nonbinding vote which we shall now proceed to completely ignore". While many have pointed out that this is a legal possibility, I personally consider it wishful thinking to believe this is going to happen.

    3) The "Greenland". Taking the example of Denmark/Greenland, England and Wales withdraw from the EU, while Scotland and possibly Northern Ireland stay in, without an independence vote. Complex but possible, and perhaps the most reflective of the will of the majority in all areas, it would give the UK a "back door" to continue to experience many of the benefits of belonging to the EU. It depends, however, on Westminster giving what would amount to a huge economic gift to Scotland and the SNP, which makes it less likely than it probably should be in a just world.

    4) The "Yugoslavia". Scotland goes independent after another referendum, and either rejoins or remains in the EU. This would probably result in Scotland recovering after an unknown number of years for this all to shake out, while the rest of the former UK ends up wherever it ends up. Depends on Westminster allowing and acknowledging another independence referendum quite soon after the last one, though; while many people think this is quite possible I am less confident.

    5) The "Full Stupid". The UK withdraws from the EU, full stop, and drags Scotland and Northern Ireland kicking and screaming with it.
    posted by kyrademon at 2:07 PM on June 26, 2016 [26 favorites]


    Meanwhile, Ireland and NI. This outcome would mean a controlled border between Ireland/NI and England/Scotland.

    Actually Ireland is outside Schengen which means passport controls coming off any EU flight as prescribed by the CTA. There's no reason to believe that a Brexit would scrap the CTA agreement. Ditto with creating CTA with an EU Scotland. If they're outside of Schengen the border can remain open.
    posted by Talez at 2:10 PM on June 26, 2016 [1 favorite]


    If there is a huge institutional fear of Brexit everywhere and apparent ambivalence even on the part of Leave backers for triggering Article 50, then I am having trouble understanding why so many people are certain that it's inevitable.

    Well, there's the bit where neither Labour nor the Tories want to lose more voters to the UKIP, which is a very real risk if they ignore the referendum result.

    And while it's obviously more fiction than a serious prediction, if you start with the latest polls, and imagine a worst case snap election scenario where Labour loses 1/3 of their voters (something their internal polling apparently has indicated could happen) and those all go to UKIP, and the Conservatives lose a similar amount, King Nigel will suddenly have his own majority in the House of Commons.
    posted by effbot at 2:22 PM on June 26, 2016


    And then we'll really see what A Man Without a Plan looks like.
    posted by Grangousier at 2:23 PM on June 26, 2016 [2 favorites]


    I was going to crack a joke about how the political climate depicted in Children of Earth suddenly seems terrifyingly plausible, so I searched Twitter to see if anybody funnier than me had already made the same joke, but instead found out that there's a (real-life) vocal Brexit supporter named John Frobisher, and I can't even anymore....
    posted by schmod at 2:25 PM on June 26, 2016


    Children of Earth

    Children of Men.
    posted by Phersu at 2:28 PM on June 26, 2016 [1 favorite]


    Boris re-emerges with a column in the Telegraph.
    posted by kariebookish at 2:34 PM on June 26, 2016 [3 favorites]


    The EU ministers have to show that they don't bargain with " terrorists" otherwise every EU member could more or less hold the EU hostage over all sorts of issues in the name of national sovereignty. It would literally never stop until the EU collapses.

    Letting the UK go isn't ideal but it's clear that the UK has never been fully committed to the concept of a European federal state. Brussels might just be looking to cut their losses in a desire to preserve the institution.

    Of course the reality is that yes the EU needs reform but the UK was much more equipped to reform it from the inside than the outside.

    The EU needs to retain a hard line and the pro Brexit faction needs to maintain a hard line so it seems like the only solution will be for moderates within labour and the conservatives to work together to reverse this debacle.

    Both the Tories and Labour are probably too vulnerable to block this stupidity by themselves so it's probably going to require moderates in both parties along with the Scots to work together.

    Either that or they have to hope that buyers remorse will cause UKIP support to drop like a rock
    posted by vuron at 2:36 PM on June 26, 2016


    Boris re-emerges with a column in the Telegraph.
    I cannot stress too much that Britain is part of Europe – and always will be
    You've got to be fucking kidding me. This is a stupid fucking joke at this point, right?
    posted by Talez at 2:37 PM on June 26, 2016 [14 favorites]


    On first read-through: Boris can talk a fine game but has no actual real proposals as to how to proceed. Right, nothing's changed.
    posted by kariebookish at 2:38 PM on June 26, 2016


    Children of Earth

    Children of Men


    Although we do have a political class who'd be perfectly happy to serve up our children to aliens for fun, so I think both count.
    posted by Grangousier at 2:39 PM on June 26, 2016 [4 favorites]


    It would literally never stop until the EU collapses.

    That genie is out of the bottle. Denmark and Holland will go next.
    posted by Coda Tronca at 2:39 PM on June 26, 2016 [1 favorite]


    From Boris Johnson's Guardian column:
    British people will still be able to go and work in the EU; to live; to travel; to study; to buy homes and to settle down. As the German equivalent of the CBI – the BDI – has very sensibly reminded us, there will continue to be free trade, and access to the single market.
    ...
    Yes, there will be a substantial sum of money which we will no longer send to Brussels, but which could be used on priorities such as the NHS.
    It is like he's a lying machine that just can't stop.
    posted by vacapinta at 2:40 PM on June 26, 2016 [32 favorites]


    Yes, we will be able to do free trade deals with the growth economies of the world in a way that is currently forbidden.

    Translation: "Yes, we will be able to embark on a new era of colonialism without those bureaucrats in Brussels telling us that we can't buy diamonds dug out the ground by child slave labor!"
    posted by Talez at 2:41 PM on June 26, 2016 [2 favorites]


    kariebookish: pretty much. Also, how he thinks he can negotiate a deal which includes access to the common market & free movement of UK citizens in the EU but not the converse for EU citizens in the UK is beyond me. Cloud cuckoo land politics.
    posted by pharm at 2:41 PM on June 26, 2016 [1 favorite]


    That genie is out of the bottle. Denmark and Holland will go next.

    I wouldn't be so sure about that. Here in the Netherlands everybody is eurosceptic, but leaving ? I don't think so.
    posted by Pendragon at 2:42 PM on June 26, 2016 [1 favorite]


    Boris Johnson announces free unicorns for all, in his post-Brexit world of endless summer.
    posted by Grangousier at 2:43 PM on June 26, 2016 [2 favorites]


    he thinks he can negotiate a deal which includes access to the common market & free movement of UK citizens in the EU but not the converse for EU citizens in the UK

    ...which shows precisely what all the assurances that the status of EU citizens in the UK will be protected are worth. They may be forced to honour them, but they do not in any way plan to if they can help it at all.
    posted by Dysk at 2:44 PM on June 26, 2016


    Right. So Boris' absence can be explained by the fact that he's clearly been on a different fucking planet. Jesus Christ, I reiterate: there is no plan. There was never a plan. We are so fucked.
    posted by skybluepink at 2:44 PM on June 26, 2016 [8 favorites]


    Sounds like Boris is pushing the Norway solution.

    Which of course does nothing to help out the working class poor and nothing to resolve the fears about immigrants.

    Which is of course not what were the selling points of Brexit but fools and their money I guess.

    Pretty fun stuff of course he's going to soft pedal on his promises but I guess in 2 years you guys got some sovereignty back. Fun times in between I guess as the racists are emboldened and the working class poor feel lied to.
    posted by vuron at 2:44 PM on June 26, 2016 [1 favorite]


    Why exactly does Norway seem to like the Norway solution? They are firmly opposed to joining, but accept basically everything except the Euro, including Schengen for which the UK negotiated an opt out because islands are supposedly different. They seem to have all the rights and obligations of membership except for voting. How is that a model that works for Norway let alone one that should be replicated?
    posted by zachlipton at 2:49 PM on June 26, 2016


    It is my understanding that it is a widespread opinion in Norway that the Norwegian model with regards to the EU is a bad one.
    posted by Dysk at 2:52 PM on June 26, 2016 [3 favorites]


    This is an even bigger "cutting off your nose to spite your face" move than the British Leave vote. With that judgment, they obviously refused any money from the U.S. after we accidentally bombed their hospital, right?

    A little post-mortem, since I just looked it up: MSF stopped taking money from the US Government in 2004, primarily because the US tends to be military or otherwise directly involved in the conflicts where MSF operates, which results in unnecessary risks. So yeah, they've refused any money from the US government, both before and after the bombing.
    posted by effbot at 2:53 PM on June 26, 2016 [5 favorites]


    I may not be following your argument correctly, but it seems a bit muddled.

    Well, either I was unclear, or I'm misreading your response. I think we're pretty much saying the same thing, though I appreciate your expanded points. The only argument I was really trying to make is that things like unemployment statistics don't measure what most people think they measure, and policies targeted at fixing unemployment at a specific, non-zero level aren't necessarily evidence for some neoliberal corporatist scheme to oppress workers. I'm not saying corporations don't try to exploit workers, but this isn't evidence for it.

    In sum, a small amount of unemployment and a small amount of inflation is best for everyone. Where all the argument arises is which side of this government policy believes is most important. Favoring low inflation over low unemployment is to favor the wealthy over the workers, and vice-versa.

    This exactly. This is one of those incredibly important but highly technical and boring to talk about policy points that has huge ripple effects throughout our societies. So a bunch of policy nerds in a room somewhere make judgment calls on how to balance inflation versus unemployment, and when they due to political pressure or myopia or overt classism choose a set of numbers that slightly favor the wealthy over time, millions of people suffer. But instead of addressing the real problem with real solutions (greater transparency and oversight, clearer policy goals that favor the poor, etc.), people focus on the easier-to-understand but irrelevant issue of immigrants "taking their jobs."

    Personally I believe a certain level of inflation is a moral good, because productivity now is more socially valuable than the same productivity in the past.
    posted by biogeo at 2:53 PM on June 26, 2016 [4 favorites]


    "The only change – and it will not come in any great rush – is that the UK will extricate itself from the EU’s extraordinary and opaque system of legislation: the vast and growing corpus of law enacted by a European Court of Justice from which there can be no appeal. This will bring not threats, but golden opportunities for this country – to pass laws and set taxes according to the needs of the UK."

    So this is what it was about for Boris. Not immigration, not the cost. Freedom from the European Court. What laws do he and his cronies want to pass? What taxes are they planning on setting? And why am I hearing alarm bells go off?
    posted by billiebee at 2:57 PM on June 26, 2016 [22 favorites]


    This is an even bigger "cutting off your nose to spite your face"

    I have the utmost respect for MSF. There is absolutely no way that I, an anonymous Internet commentator, would ever second-guess their strategy. They are the good guys, and they know what they're doing; I would rather learn from them.
    posted by My Dad at 2:59 PM on June 26, 2016 [6 favorites]


    Ok, I know nothing about this situation is funny... but this did make me laugh, because it's true.
    posted by TwoStride at 2:59 PM on June 26, 2016 [3 favorites]


    That genie is out of the bottle. Denmark and Holland will go next.

    If I've learned one thing from this referendum, it is how much Brits simply do not understand about Europe. This comment does nothing to change my mind.

    There are at least two Danes in this thread (Dysk and myself). I'm pretty sure we'd both be happy to discuss the intricacies of Danish EU membership & the complexities of Danish politics - but maybe now's not the time & place.
    posted by kariebookish at 3:02 PM on June 26, 2016 [9 favorites]


    Johnson making pretty clear that he is going to look for EEA membership as an alternative to EU membership. THEN WHAT THE FUCK DID WE JUST GO THROUGH ALL THIS SHIT FOR YOU FUCKING POSH, SOCIOPATHIC, FLOPPY HAIRED PRICK????
    posted by howfar at 3:07 PM on June 26, 2016 [15 favorites]


    Guys, I feel like I've stumbled of something of legit political interest here.

    Here is Jill Stein's original post supporting Brexit.

    The post has been silently replaced by one claiming she never supported Brexit. "I still support Corbyn's, Lucas' and the UK Greens' view".
    posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 3:08 PM on June 26, 2016 [51 favorites]


    talez said

    Actually Ireland is outside Schengen which means passport controls coming off any EU flight as prescribed by the CTA. There's no reason to believe that a Brexit would scrap the CTA agreement. Ditto with creating CTA with an EU Scotland. If they're outside of Schengen the border can remain open.

    The problem is that while they check passports coming off an EU flight, anyone with an EU passport has an automatic right to be here, and will be waved through. So all those EU migrants that the UK would turn back are legally entitled to come here. If there's no border check, they can then cross into NI - while they might not be legally entitled, in practice there's no way at present to stop them. That's why people are wondering whether Brexit will result in an internal UK border, where checking for EU migrants is left to the controllable ferry and airport crossing from NI to Britain.

    A Common Travel Area where one side is part of the EU and freely open to all EU citizens, and the other side is neither, is not sustainable in the long term.
    posted by Azara at 3:08 PM on June 26, 2016 [3 favorites]


    Why exactly does Norway seem to like the Norway solution? They are firmly opposed to joining

    They tried to join in 1962 together with a few more countries, but the French didn't want any fucking UK in the EEC at that point ("Angleterre, ce n'est plus grand chose") so it got derailed. Since then they've had two referendums, both resulting in narrow No wins. Norwegian Labour, Conservatives and Liberals all want to join, but they generally end up with coalitions of both pro-EU and anti-EU parties, and the opinion is strongly against it at the moment (70,9% No in the latest poll, if I'm reading things correctly) so nobody's going to call a third referendum at this point.
    posted by effbot at 3:11 PM on June 26, 2016 [1 favorite]


    howfar, my gut feeling is that has to do with human rights & the European Court of Justice.
    posted by kariebookish at 3:11 PM on June 26, 2016 [5 favorites]


    I'm pretty sure we'd both be happy to discuss the intricacies of Danish EU membership & the complexities of Danish politics - but maybe now's not the time & place.

    Seems like the perfect place and I would welcome hearing views on whether or not other EU states are getting closer to leaving.
    posted by Coda Tronca at 3:12 PM on June 26, 2016


    Given that new EU membership currently requires joining the Euro & everyone has seen how the EU treated Greece, joining the EU is suddenly no longer quite the no-brainer it previously appeared to be for small countries on the periphery of Europe.

    If the EU drops the Euro requirement, then sentiment might shift back towards joining I suspect.
    posted by pharm at 3:14 PM on June 26, 2016 [5 favorites]


    Seems like the perfect place and I would welcome hearing views on whether or not other EU states are getting closer to leaving.

    Seeing as the two Danes in here are more concerned with the turmoil their lives in the UK have been thrown into, and the UK situation is the topic of the thread, it's not.
    posted by Dysk at 3:16 PM on June 26, 2016 [9 favorites]


    Stein being completely uneducated about intricate geopolitical issues really doesn't surprise me at all.

    Anyway yeah Norway kinda thinks EEA and EFTA membership kind of sucks but they can't afford to withdrawal from the current arrangement and they don't have the internal support for EU membership.

    So basically they get all of the responsibilities of having to comply with EU laws IIRC they are exempt from some of the agricultural rules and fishing (I guess killing whales is really important for some Norwegians or something) but basically in return for increased autonomy in a small number of areas they are basically completely cut out of decision making process.

    What's really fun is that the Norwegians kind of rely on free market types in the UK pushing against the interventionist tendencies of the rest of the EU. Now the UK will be basically letting France and Germany dictate even more policies. What's also interesting is that it's quite possible that France and Germany can push a harder line against Russia in the future.
    posted by vuron at 3:18 PM on June 26, 2016 [2 favorites]


    If I've learned one thing from this referendum, it is how much Brits simply do not understand about Europe. This comment does nothing to change my mind.

    There are also quite a few Dutch people (myself included, allochtoon though I am). I'd unfortunately need to agree there is risk from NL, but as in the UK, mostly coming from the far right (Wilders, et al). Most of the Dutch would not want to separate from Europe, but there would be risk they wouldn't be arsed to vote (or would do a protest vote to be stubborn). There's a lot of complexity in Dutch politics, too.

    Anyone who would think it a good development leaves me gobsmacked. There would be so much suffering.
    posted by frumiousb at 3:19 PM on June 26, 2016 [4 favorites]


    The representation in the UK media is that continued Norwegian control of Norwegian fishing rights is a powerful motivator for Norwegians to stay as EEA rather than go full EU. I'd be interested to hear from Norwegians whether this is an accurate representation of how things are there.
    posted by biffa at 3:21 PM on June 26, 2016 [1 favorite]


    Given that new EU membership currently requires joining the Euro & everyone has seen how the EU treated Greece, joining the EU is suddenly no longer quite the no-brainer it previously appeared to be for small countries on the periphery of Europe.

    On the contrary, the Baltics have quite happily taken the plunge into the Eurozone. If the shit doesn't hit the fan and the budget isn't filled with massive holes hidden by Goldman Sachs the lowered borrowing costs for governments, the lower costs of international trade, the low inflation all make the Euro a nice little currency to use.

    The problem is when things spiral out of control.
    posted by Talez at 3:28 PM on June 26, 2016 [3 favorites]


    There won't be a referendum in the Netherlands soon. Wilders may want one, but the current referendum law doesn't allow referendums to be held about existing laws and treaties, only about new laws and treaties.

    The dutch parliament would have to create a new law for a Nexit referendum, and I don't see that happening soon.
    posted by Pendragon at 3:32 PM on June 26, 2016 [2 favorites]




    I'd be interested to hear from Norwegians whether this is an accurate representation of how things are there.

    Not a MeFite, but here's Norway's PM's take on things, in a recent interview.

    (the bits about "relying on London’s free-market zeal" is similar to Brexit comments by the Swedish PM, but cannot find any english-language links right now).
    posted by effbot at 3:42 PM on June 26, 2016 [1 favorite]


    On the contrary, the Baltics have quite happily taken the plunge into the Eurozone. If the shit doesn't hit the fan and the budget isn't filled with massive holes hidden by Goldman Sachs the lowered borrowing costs for governments, the lower costs of international trade, the low inflation all make the Euro a nice little currency to use.

    The problem is when things spiral out of control.


    What's the mechanism the United States uses to ensure poorer / less productive states don't end up like Greece or Ireland?

    In Canada, which is also a decentralized federation, we have equalization payments that help ensure "have-not" provinces can still receive some revenues in order to support a somewhat standardized level of services. Currently Canada has its own "Greek crisis" brewing, as Labradour and Newfoundland's commodity revenues have tanked and the province is running a massive deficit. But the provincial government has the autonomy to run deficits, cut budgets or even default.
    posted by My Dad at 3:45 PM on June 26, 2016 [1 favorite]


    What's the mechanism the United States uses to ensure poorer / less productive states don't end up like Greece or Ireland?

    There are larger swings of living standards between states and also Federal money gets spent in poorer states depending on the ability of a congresscritter/senator to snag the pork for their state.
    posted by Talez at 3:48 PM on June 26, 2016 [3 favorites]


    A little post-mortem

    Eh, meant post-script. To this comment. Note to self: use the abbreviation next time, to avoid mistakes.
    posted by effbot at 3:50 PM on June 26, 2016


    What's the mechanism the United States uses to ensure poorer / less productive states don't end up like Greece or Ireland?

    i don't believe there is one - it's quite possible we may find out within 5 years - illinois, for example, is in really shaky shape
    posted by pyramid termite at 4:10 PM on June 26, 2016


    What's the mechanism the United States uses to ensure poorer / less productive states don't end up like Greece or Ireland?

    Speed traps
    posted by Flashman at 4:14 PM on June 26, 2016 [24 favorites]


    It's simply fascinating to observe the similarity between Greece and Mississippi in a functional sense (a poor subpart of a federal whole receiving more money than it contributes) and the utter disparity of the public reaction to their tax money being used in that manner. Few people care that Mississippi takes their money; indeed your average Mississippian is a person most likely to oppose government spending. But since Greece has a different language and is referred to as a different "country" rather than "state", people become enraged.
    posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 4:19 PM on June 26, 2016 [18 favorites]


    In Canada, which is also a decentralized federation, we have equalization payments.... Currently Canada has its own "Greek crisis" brewing

    The Maritimes have been this way for decades. We grumble about equalization, but I can't remember a serious attempt to alter the basic premise that the poor provinces are supported by the rich, especially since it was federal controls on fishing that hobbled the maritime economies. Albertans will never stop bitching about "their" oil money keeping fishermen on welfare... until the price of oil dropped and suddenly Alberta was on the receiving end of transfer payments.

    This is by way of saying that equalization schemes aren't fatally flawed, even when some members will obviously be long term receivers. It just requires a larger whole that everyone is relatively invested in.
    posted by fatbird at 4:22 PM on June 26, 2016 [8 favorites]


    I'd be interested to hear from Norwegians whether this is an accurate representation of how things are there.

    Also, Espen Barth Eide, a former Norwegian Foreign Minister, wrote a piece for the Guardian about Norway's relationship with the EU.


    tl;dr - Norway is actually more integrated into the European project than some EU nations - it takes on about three-quarters of EU laws, and has to make sure all its exports are EU-compatible, of course - but has no say in how those laws are made. For Norway, a small if prosperous nation with a largely moral role in world politics which was never a part of the EU, this is OK. For the UK, which is a larger economy, a more global political player and previously a major part of the EU, less so.
    posted by running order squabble fest at 4:23 PM on June 26, 2016 [2 favorites]


    George Will may have recently announced that he's quitting the Republican party because he does not wish to associate with Trump, but he just showed that he is on the same side with him on "Brexit: Britain’s welcome revival of nationhood".

    Which just helps reinforce the argument that Britain outside the EU will be more oppressive, more coporatist and more awful than inside. As per miorita's link.
    posted by oneswellfoop at 4:27 PM on June 26, 2016 [1 favorite]


    Well even though the US and the EU are both federal states there are obvious differences in terms of perceived sovereignty for the states.

    Yes there is a lot of distributed authority delegated to the states or more explicitly reserved to the states but we also have roughly 100 years since resolving the federal vs state dichotomy with a pretty crushing loss to the forces of disunion
    posted by vuron at 4:29 PM on June 26, 2016 [2 favorites]


    What's the mechanism the United States uses to ensure poorer / less productive states don't end up like Greece or Ireland?

    Pretty sure everyone in Kansas would like to know the answer to that right now.
    posted by scaryblackdeath at 4:32 PM on June 26, 2016 [6 favorites]


    What laws do he and his cronies want to pass? What taxes are they planning on setting? And why am I hearing alarm bells go off?

    I'm only guessing but I'd say labor laws are ones the big business backers would be in favor of working on. They likely believe it's entirely too easy to form unions and go on strike in the UK, and part of that is because of the EU.
    posted by cell divide at 4:34 PM on June 26, 2016 [9 favorites]


    Environmental laws are apparently largely derived from the EU, too. Then there's human rights law which is definitely a bugbear for the right. They'll finally have the freedom to deport all those hate preachers to countries that might torture them!
    posted by Pink Frost at 4:38 PM on June 26, 2016 [4 favorites]


    Also the cultural differences between California and Mississippi might seem massive but the mean standard of living between those states is not that massive.

    Also we have a much higher degree of nationalism built around the US as a whole than focused on individual state nationalism.

    Of course college football and Texas reveal the still deep divisions but the US id more divided on the basis of political ideology
    posted by vuron at 4:38 PM on June 26, 2016 [1 favorite]


    Smugly talking about how this presages the future and can't we have a good abstract talk about how it'll happen and how great it'll be feels borderline sociopathic in a thread where people are talking about their fear of actually dying over this, broken up by breaking news stories about Polish families having the shit kicked out of them by celebrating Brits. Especially when you follow that up by literally repeating Sarah Palin talking points about Barack Obama(???? is this not 2016 where health care got passed, gay marriage got legalized, and a bunch of other real good things happened, over the course of eight goddamn years???????? thanks to America not voting for nationalist, economically selfish bigoted elites?????????????????????).
    posted by rorgy at 4:40 PM on June 26, 2016 [8 favorites]


    Um... thanks.
    posted by Grangousier at 4:41 PM on June 26, 2016 [1 favorite]


    So, the latest from the Brexit campaign: Plans? Why would we have plans?
    posted by His thoughts were red thoughts at 4:43 PM on June 26, 2016 [1 favorite]


    The Atlantic: Europe’s Counterrevolution Has Begun
    How, in just 10 years, did we go from the European Century to European Collapse? Leonard, the London-based director of the European Council on Foreign Relations, is one of the closest and most thoughtful observers of Britain’s complex relationship with Europe. On Friday, after a sleepless night of tracking the knife-edge vote, he spoke with me about what went wrong with the European project, what’s behind Britain’s exit, and what comes next.
    posted by Joe in Australia at 4:50 PM on June 26, 2016 [5 favorites]


    Turns out that to do Democracy, you need to address inequality. All the time. Every damn day.. Because--get this--capitalism and democracy are uneasy bedfellows.

    The tragedy here is that the working class in England had a real gripe, but by voting to exit, they've put themselves in an every worse position.

    So, so grim.
    posted by Joseph Gurl at 4:51 PM on June 26, 2016 [42 favorites]


    Smugly talking about how this presages the future and can't we have a good abstract talk about how it'll happen and how great it'll be feels borderline sociopathic in a thread where people are talking about their fear of actually dying over this, broken up by breaking news stories about Polish families having the shit kicked out of them by celebrating Brits.

    This is one of the most shocking and important global political events of our lifetime. Requesting people ignore that to only talk about individual stories of suffering is unrealistic and bizarre.
    posted by Drinky Die at 5:00 PM on June 26, 2016 [15 favorites]




    What's the mechanism the United States uses to ensure poorer / less productive states don't end up like Greece or Ireland?
    I think the short answer is that there isn't one. Smug people from rich states like to point out that the poor states, which tend to be conservative, get more from the Federal government than they contribute. But there's no special mechanism to make that happen: they're getting the same highway funding and anti-poverty programs as the rich states. It's just that they contribute less because people there pay less taxes. Also, people in those states are more likely to qualify for anti-poverty programs, and things like Federal highway funds are more important to a state's economy when there isn't a lot of other economic activity going on.

    At any rate, I don't think the US should necessarily be anyone's model for how to handle regional economic disparities.
    posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 5:04 PM on June 26, 2016 [4 favorites]


    Oh, and this:
    BASE AND SUPERSTRUCTURE, MOTHERFUCKERS
    posted by Joseph Gurl at 5:04 PM on June 26, 2016 [2 favorites]


    It's simply fascinating to observe the similarity between Greece and Mississippi in a functional sense (a poor subpart of a federal whole receiving more money than it contributes) and the utter disparity of the public reaction to their tax money being used in that manner. Few people care that Mississippi takes their money; indeed your average Mississippian is a person most likely to oppose government spending. But since Greece has a different language and is referred to as a different "country" rather than "state", people become enraged.

    But few Europeans cared that Greek government spending was being subsidized by the EU prior to the recession of 2008. Indeed, net transfers from Brussels accounted for 2.5% of the Greek GNI in 2007, a fact which garnered little attention at the time. Only when the profligacy of the Greek government became apparent, in the aftermath of the 2008 recession, were loans totaling several hundred billions of dollars offered to Greece. The offering of these loans indeed met with outrage among several European publics, for they were being asked not to foster the development a poor country (to which request they had acceded without demur), but to soften the consequences of its government's unsustainable largesse. Similarly, the American tax-payer readily fosters the development of various poor states (including Mississippi); but s/he has never been asked to save such states from their extravagant spending habits.
    posted by Abelian Grape at 5:07 PM on June 26, 2016 [1 favorite]


    BASE AND SUPERSTRUCTURE, MOTHERFUCKERS

    Can you be more explicit? For the slow thinkers among us.

    Like, y'know, me.
    posted by Grangousier at 5:09 PM on June 26, 2016 [2 favorites]


    Turns out that to do Democracy, you need to address inequality. All the time. Every damn day.

    This is a wonderful rallying sentiment but I have no idea what it means from a policy standpoint, especially given that it seems like the British left -ostensibly the more anti-inequality part of the spectrum- was quite divided over what to do about this.
    posted by Going To Maine at 5:09 PM on June 26, 2016 [1 favorite]


    (So in other European voting news, the Spanish conservatives PP gained a bit in today's repeat election, but is still far from a majority, while social-democrat PSOE mostly kept their share, and anti-austerity coalition Unidos Podemos (previously) under-performed; they were expected to win 20 seats, but barely held on to the current number after losing over a million voters. The hunt for a working coalition continues.)
    posted by effbot at 5:24 PM on June 26, 2016 [2 favorites]


    BASE AND SUPERSTRUCTURE, MOTHERFUCKERS

    Can you be more explicit?


    Uh... I think he was trying to underscore his earlier point about democracy and capitalism? (base, superstructure = marxist social theory terms... economic base driving the ideological superstructure & being the ultimate determinant in their dialectical relationship... etc etc)
    posted by aielen at 5:29 PM on June 26, 2016 [3 favorites]


    Our Senate (which provides equal representation to every state) and the weirdness around having Representative boundaries being limited by state boundaries creates a certain degree of congressional focus on the concerns of smaller less industrial states. A lot of large programs are also explicitly designed to provide a degree of transfer payments to smaller states in the form of defense appropriations and other forms of pork barrel politics.

    Until the standard of living in Eastern Europe gets closer to that of Northern and Western Europe there is going to be a fairly constant transfer of immigrants looking for greater prosperity in the more prosperous parts of Europe. This is largely only limited by nationalism within the individual EU states (it seems unlikely that poor British are going to immigrate to Sweden for instance) and language barriers. But for some percentage of Eastern Europeans the economic advantages possible in seeking their fortunes in western Europe exceed the likely negatives.

    The optimal solution would be to view the Eurozone as a holistic economy and then focus a lot of investment aimed at increasing labor standards in the East as soon as possible to make up for decades of under investment by the Warsaw Pact and the Soviets but it feels like nationalistic interests have limited the amount of economic development focused in the former Soviet satellites.

    If there was a desire to invest more in the east the concerns about the ability of Eastern and Southern European states to properly manage their economy (as revealed by Spain and Greece debt crisis situations) has probably limited the tolerance of the dominant Eurozone economies for bankrolling economic development of emerging markets. Thus austerity became the default solution even though there is widespread belief among economists that austerity actually did more harm than good.

    In the short term I would expect to see continued internal migration as people seek out improved opportunities elsewhere in the Eurozone. This is pretty much the default state in the US as there has been extended periods of internal migration in the US over the last century. What's interesting of course is that the UK is unlikely to change that economic reality anytime soon because there seems to be no indication that the UK will do anything other than enter the EEA and EFTA upon exit from the EU and free movement is guaranteed in the EEA and EFTA.

    And of course eventually the UK will probably be really mad if the EU ever offers EU membership to Turkey but they will be able to do absolutely nothing about it.
    posted by vuron at 5:33 PM on June 26, 2016 [3 favorites]


    Wasn't Corbyn already vulnerable following the terrible Labour council election results had and the ineffective investigation into anti-Semitism amongst Labour-ites?

    The latter was entirely manufactured outrage [...]


    The UK Jewish communal media was outraged, and the current and former chief rabbis were outraged, and many non-Jewish politicians and activists felt the same. Please don't tell us that our concerns were imaginary, or that there was some secret agenda behind them, or that Jewish concerns shouldn't count because anti-Semitism isn't the sort of thing people ought to be concerned about.
    posted by Joe in Australia at 6:02 PM on June 26, 2016 [13 favorites]


    Back home after a weekend with the parents (don't ask).

    I woke quite gently on Saturday morning in their spare room. I was quite happy as I drowsily worked out where I was, checked that nothing had been slept on awkwardly and I had no hangover or other morning malaise. There was something nagging, though... that feeling when you wake from a really bad dream and gradually realise that the panic and fear and despair can be totally discarded? Reverse of that. We had voted Brexit. The last time I felt anything like this was shortly after I'd left my wife and child, and woke up in a state of forgetfulness about that.

    So, what have we learned so far?

    1. The Leave campaign openly admits it lied. About everything.
    2. The Leave campaign has no workable plan. And claims that it never had to have one.
    3. The government has abdicated.
    4. All the things the experts said would happen, are happening. All the things they said were impossible about the Leave campaign's claims... are impossible.
    5. The rest of the world cannot believe our stupidity (if allies) or their luck (if a-democratic)
    6. The thugs, having done their part, are demanding their payment.
    7. The Labour party has chosen this moment to self-destruct.
    8. The only politically functioning part of the UK is Scotland, and it is tied to a madman.
    9. The Tory party is going to have to choose whether to anoint the most transparent liar of the lot as Primte Minister. He has penned a work of impossible fantasy as a policy document.
    10. Our allies are rapidly restructuring their relationships to exclude the UK, because they have to. This is the extinguishing of the last of our post-Imperial pretensions. Irony - oh, we do irony.

    My initial analysis stands - we are so fucked.

    The least bad option now is to vacate the referendum, say sorry, and start to repair what damage has been done so far. We can do this, if we want, but the window is closing. It will have terrible domestic consequences, but the consequences of not doing it will be more terrible.
    posted by Devonian at 6:08 PM on June 26, 2016 [60 favorites]


    I'm starting to see the shit come through on social media now. There's nothing more fucking depressing than seeing a stream of screen shots you know are people being yelled at and assaulted by racist twats and then seeing "+114" on the last picture of the preview.

    For fucks sake Britain fought against the Nazis.
    posted by Talez at 6:28 PM on June 26, 2016 [11 favorites]


    Devonian - I agree with every point, but who is the madman in point 8 I don't understand?

    I mean, I'd agree to a temporary government led by Nicola Sturgeon like a shot, as she seems to be the only person who has any fucking idea what the fuck is going on. There are precedents for this (see General Monck for details).
    posted by Grangousier at 6:35 PM on June 26, 2016 [4 favorites]


    Devonian - I agree with every point, but who is the madman in point 8 I don't understand?


    From the context, I'd say the British Government as a whole, or England, specifically.
    posted by Nice Guy Mike at 6:41 PM on June 26, 2016


    That seems a bit poetic for a generally prosaic post, but we'll see.
    posted by Grangousier at 6:44 PM on June 26, 2016


    For fucks sake Britain fought against the Nazis.
    There were plenty of Nazi supporters in England, but most of them knew to shut up when Axis bombs started falling on London. Of course, there were also a LOT of Nazi sympathizers in the USofA; that's why FDR couldn't get us into the War while our 'special ally' was being blitzed; not until Japan made the worst strategic move of the 20th century by bombing Pearl Harbor and it "got personal". And there was still less enthusiasm among many for fighting the Nazis than for fighting the Japs (I've mentioned earlier that my 2nd Generation German-American father was sent from Maryland to California to be deployed in the Pacific because of concerns about that). WWII was one of the few conflicts the British Empire was involved in where they were clearly the Good Guys (and not merely the Lesser of Two Evils).
    posted by oneswellfoop at 6:49 PM on June 26, 2016


    Does it feel strange to anyone else to suddenly find ourselves in a post-Godwin era?

    Probably not sudden, but still.
    posted by frumiousb at 6:56 PM on June 26, 2016 [2 favorites]


    What's the mechanism the United States uses to ensure poorer / less productive states don't end up like Greece or Ireland?

    The fiscal union.

    W/r/t the Norway path (i.e. membership of the EEA and ETFA) forward, someone linked this (fascinating) paper from Clifford Chance above and they call the Norway option "highly unlikely".

    Also, I stumbled across this legal working paper put out by the ECB probably five years ago, at the height of (one of) the Greek crises and printed it off for later reading. I never would have imagined a scenario like this causing me to go dig it out again, but here we all are: Withdrawal and expulsion from the EU and EMU: some reflections
    posted by triggerfinger at 6:56 PM on June 26, 2016 [5 favorites]


    Does it feel strange to anyone else to suddenly find ourselves in a post-Godwin era?

    Thing is, none of these people get to be Nazis. The hyper-tattooed, blubbery National Front, BNP, EDL types, yeah whatever. When they can actually get the trains to run on time, come back and we'll talk. Until then, they're just thugs with delusions of grandeur.

    I accept that "thugs with delusions of grandeur" pretty much defined the Nazis during the 1920s.

    I have contradicted myself in a single post.

    This is where we are.
    posted by Grangousier at 7:01 PM on June 26, 2016 [16 favorites]


    Does it feel strange to anyone else to suddenly find ourselves in a post-Godwin era?

    Peter Sagal officially suspended Godwin's law a few months ago, and as the host of America's foremost public radio news quiz show, I believe he has that authority according to an overlooked part of the Patriot Act.
    posted by zachlipton at 7:02 PM on June 26, 2016 [14 favorites]


    What are the odds on UKIP partly or completely cannibalizing the other two parties if the government doesn't invoke Article 50?
    posted by BungaDunga at 7:05 PM on June 26, 2016


    Too fucking narrow.
    posted by Grangousier at 7:07 PM on June 26, 2016


    Thing is, none of these people get to be Nazis. The hyper-tattooed, blubbery National Front, BNP, EDL types, yeah whatever. When they can actually get the trains to run on time, come back and we'll talk. Until then, they're just thugs with delusions of grandeur.

    I just finished reading Berlin Diary: The Journal of a Foreign Correspondent, 1934-1941-- If you aren't frightened enough already, give it a whirl. If Shirer is to believed, those other Nazi selling points never worked all that well either. He talks about the government collecting money to ensure trains/Volkswagen/etc. but says how at a certain moment everyone in Berlin knew this was just a thinly disguised war tax.

    And today there are pictures of immigrants being beaten in the streets of England, and people who are not cranks ranting about Polish workers on mefi, and the US seriously talking about forcing Mexico to build a wall. Strongman leaders are rising in Russia, China, India-- old territory disputes are rising again. How else can you talk about any of this?
    posted by frumiousb at 7:11 PM on June 26, 2016 [17 favorites]


    If you aren't frightened enough already

    I'm fucking terrified, sorry, I didn't make myself clear. Government by a toxic cocktail of greedy and stupid with a twist of panic. Things don't happen again: The next thing happens. What I meant was that the classic dictatorships actually had to make things happen - real, brick and mortar, steel and concrete things. This lot can just glide along on a miasma of fantasy. Nothing real has to happen at all, other than the pain of the people they grind under their wheels. This is something new. And dangerous. And very, very stupid.
    posted by Grangousier at 7:20 PM on June 26, 2016 [3 favorites]


    We couldn't even make it one single century.
    posted by biogeo at 7:20 PM on June 26, 2016 [10 favorites]


    Yes the reality is that the UKIPs would probably be able to win a decent number of seats from Labour and the Conservatives in an election if Article 50 is ignored or the next government walks back from the edge.

    I'm not entirely convinced that they would be able to form a government though.

    The smart move would actually involve both the Centrist Tories and Centrist Labour forces to hold off on holding elections until the reality of how ghastly exiting the EU would be for the UK. Right now it seems like a sizable number of people feel like Brussels will back down and that the UK is too big for the EU to be willing to lose (because otherwise the Dutch and Danes might exit next). But the ticking clock is probably felt more in England as some very very big banks lost a ton of value Friday and they are going to want the bleeding to stop as soon as possible.

    If Boris and company can't promise an orderly exit to EEA/EFTA status (which of course still has free movement) then I think the big banks will have to start making moves to get the fuck out of the city because it'll be too toxic for doing business. HSBC is already putting on the pressure and I expect others to follow.

    At a certain point in time even completely amoral opportunists like Boris know that it's better to deal with a bunch of mad heartlanders voting for Farage and company rather than imploding the economy. At least I hope that's true for your sake.
    posted by vuron at 7:45 PM on June 26, 2016 [1 favorite]


    There's a historical tendency for the Anything-Below-Top-Upper Classes of an ethnic majority to put blame and hate on other ethnic groups instead of the rulers in their own group. After all, they usually can't see, let alone reach out and punch the noble folks in their noble homes (with their noble bodyguards), but the local minorities are right there, sticking out. It's a sad aspect of General Human Nature, but seems more prominent among Guys Like Me (White, Anglo, Xtian). At least it is to me, but I grew up with a one-generation-from-German-immigrants father who was an equal-opportunity bigot (he was also estranged from his parents so there are conflicting theories about where he got his hate from). In recent centuries, Guys Like Me have had the lion's share of power, so maybe it's less our unique problem than something we've been in the best position to have. Also, during a period in history when Guys Like Me are losing their dominance over the nation/world/neighborhood, of course they're going to fight back against The Others. As I said, General Human Nature, and any claims that Guys Like Me are the Best of Humanity is bullsh!t
    posted by oneswellfoop at 7:50 PM on June 26, 2016 [1 favorite]


    Does it feel strange to anyone else to suddenly find ourselves in a post-Godwin era?

    Mike Godwin is very much alive, and is tweeting about Brexit: "I must say David Cameron has gone to extraordinary lengths not to be remembered primarily for that pig thing."
    posted by justsomebodythatyouusedtoknow at 7:55 PM on June 26, 2016 [71 favorites]


    Bless you, justsomebodythatyouusedtoknow-- that made me laugh out loud.
    posted by frumiousb at 8:02 PM on June 26, 2016 [4 favorites]


    George Soros: Brexit and the Future of Europe
    Chris Patten: A British Tragedy in One Act
    Kenneth Rogoff: Britain’s Democratic Failure
    Mark Leonard: The Rise of Demotic Democracy in Europe

    John Quiggen of Crooked Timber talks about the Three Party System and Reaping The Whirlwind
    The surprising decision by English and Welsh (though not Scottish and Northern Irish) voters to leave the European Union only makes sense in the broader context of the breakdown of the ideological consensus that dominated politics throughout the world until the global financial crisis. Precisely because of its dominance, this ideology was seen as common sense by its adherents. Its opponents gave it various names, including economic rationalism (in Australia), Thatcherism (in Britain) and the Washington Consensus (in the Third World), but the most common was “neoliberalism.”

    As neoliberalism has declined, it has been challenged on the right by the politics of tribalism, embodied in the Brexit vote and the rise of Donald Trump in the United States. There have also been challenges from the left, reflected in the election of Jeremy Corbyn as the leader of the British Labour Party and the strong showing of Bernie Sanders in the US Democratic primaries. To understand what is going here, it is necessary to go beyond using neoliberalism simply as a pejorative, and to understand it as a powerful, but ultimately wrong and dangerous, way of thinking about the world.
    Dollars and Sense: Brexit: The Day We Entered the Eye of the Maelstrom - "The lesson for the Clinton campaign is it must move beyond rhetoric criticizing neoliberalism and adopt serious remedies that tackle its legacy of inequality, economic insecurity and loss of hope. Neoliberalism is the ultimate cause of the establishment’s rejection. Racism, immigration and nationalism may be the match for the anti-establishment fire: wage stagnation and off-shoring of jobs are the fuel."

    Ian Welsh: On the Anti-Corbyn Coup
    The Psychology Of Brexit
    An anthropologist looks at Brexit: The World Changed Overnight
    Brexit: Christmas, Or The Fourth Of July? - Passchendaele or The Somme?
    Brexit- Whistling Past the Graveyard
    Brexit: Fear, Loathing, and Anger on Both Sides of the Channel
    posted by the man of twists and turns at 8:21 PM on June 26, 2016 [21 favorites]


    Ooooh, John Oliver is going to town on the Brexit.
    posted by TwoStride at 8:22 PM on June 26, 2016 [2 favorites]


    I'm getting a historical vibe here, but I can't quite pin it down. Is the world in another 1914 time frame or is this more like 1933? I am serious, unfortunately. Either one is very obviously not good.
    posted by InsertNiftyNameHere at 9:13 PM on June 26, 2016


    We are living in Weimar times, babies.
    posted by Joseph Gurl at 9:27 PM on June 26, 2016 [4 favorites]




    Mod note: A few comments deleted. Let's try to avoid turning this into a huge side discussion about the US. Thanks.
    posted by taz (staff) at 9:43 PM on June 26, 2016 [7 favorites]


    InsertNiftyNameHere asked: Is the world in another 1914 time frame or is this more like 1933?

    I don't know how typical are the events that were linked by His thoughts were red thoughts above. If they're becoming common, especially if they're tacitly understood, accepted, or (heaven help us!) endorsed then we're heading towards 1933. It's possible that in retrospect we will say that Farage's anti-immigrant rhetoric was what paved the way to Fortress Britain or whatever, just as in retrospect Hitler's antisemitic rhetoric was what paved the way for the Nuremberg Laws. But we're a long way off from that at present.
    posted by Joe in Australia at 9:57 PM on June 26, 2016 [1 favorite]


    Two possibilities with the Boris article:

    1) he genuinely believes that it will all be roses and honey.
    2) he's aware that's not going to happen, but is still lying to people.

    I don't know which is worse.
    posted by MattWPBS at 10:32 PM on June 26, 2016 [3 favorites]




    Is the world in another 1914 time frame or is this more like 1933?

    Historical analogies can be dangerously misleading. Those at the time who thought that 1939 would be another 1914 were unprepared for blitzkrieg.

    Besides, the UKIP is clearly analogous to the civilization destroying Sea Peoples circa 1200 BC.
    posted by justsomebodythatyouusedtoknow at 12:00 AM on June 27, 2016 [9 favorites]




    This is so scary.

    About the Danes: there is no way we "are next" - even the Danish Peoples Party (Farage's besties in the EP) are quiet, and expressing hope that the Brexit can somehow be avoided. On the more personal level, all of my anti-EU FB friends are apparently shell-shocked. Both those on the left and those on the right.
    Friday morning, the Danish Prime Minister did something unprecedented: he stated clearly that the EU is an European Union, and as such it is governed by European politicians elected by European voters. Since 1972, we've heard a similar lying rhetoric as that in the UK - that there are faceless technocrats down in Brussels who are imposing crazy laws and regulations on us randomly. Suddenly our PM has discovered how that rhetoric can backfire terribly. So that 's something.

    Without the UK, the EU can head towards democratic reforms: the UK has been a very strong force against reform. Other things we can have without the UK: more and better regulations on banks, on the environment, on workers rights, on food safety. All stuff the current Danish Government are against, but now they don't have their British allies in negotiations and they have less of a say. If the UK gets a Norwegian solution, the Brits will get all these nice things too, as well as free movement of labour, and no say at all, so maybe this is a good solution.

    There is still the problem with all these people who have been led to think immigrants are the cause of the changes and problems we have in all our societies. What will they do when they discover that "leave" didn't mean immigrants leaving? With Farage exposed as a liar, where will they go now? The leader of the Danish Peoples Party said something to that end on Friday, and I didn't get it, why would a far right, racist demagogue warn us that the Brexit could lead to fascism? Now I see.
    posted by mumimor at 12:01 AM on June 27, 2016 [19 favorites]


    Integration was an attempt by the ruling classes of the continent, with the support of the United States, to prevent a new eruption of national conflicts that had twice plunged the world into all-out war. However, “unity” within the framework of capitalism could never mean anything other than the domination of the most powerful nations and corporations over the continent and its peoples.

    WWII killed more than 60 million people, a figure that included millions of European civilians. To view European integration simply as a tool by the "ruling classes" ignores the fact that everyone in Europe benefits greatly by not getting sucked into a massive worldwide conflict in which enormous numbers of people, mostly poor working people, would die.

    Anyway, the article you linked goes on to say:
    The Socialist Equality Party [ed: who wrote the article] advocated an active boycott of the referendum, explaining that neither the Leave nor Remain camps spoke for the working class. The Labour Party and the Trades Union Congress lined up behind the EU, while the advocates of a “Left Leave” vote sided with the ultranationalists of the Tory right and UKIP. It was this comprehensive political betrayal that allowed the right wing to dominate opposition to the EU.
    An active boycott of the referendum is utterly pointless. Leave or Remain were, for better or for worse, the only choices on the ballot. Do you know how to ensure nobody speaks for you? By not bothering to show up and vote.

    It's perfectly reasonable, if not noble, to advocate for reform, whether in or out of the EU, that would improve the lives of workers. Refusing to participate in the process because you're hoping for a continent-sized wave of socialism to sweep across the land is unrealistic and generally a waste of time. To the extent that the disaffected masses are siding with anyone, it appears to be with right-wing nationalists. Perhaps the SEP could have spent more time countering that instead of performing "concrete analysis of the balance of class forces, informed and guided by historically derived Marxist principles," or whatever.
    posted by zachlipton at 12:25 AM on June 27, 2016 [25 favorites]


    George Osborne found! No reports on where he's been hiding.
    posted by zachlipton at 12:29 AM on June 27, 2016


    You make strong points, zachlipton, but performing "concrete analysis of the balance of class forces, informed and guided by historically derived Marxist principles" is just part of building the revolutionary party, not something only a maniac would do. Cross out the word 'Marxist' and it's what many are doing on this thread.
    posted by Coda Tronca at 12:38 AM on June 27, 2016


    Do these Blairites have an actual fucking Tony Blair equivalent* stuck up their sleeves? That would almost be welcome in this climate, as opposed to them having more shitiness and chaos in which case they can jump into the same bonfire they're throwing Corbyn into.

    * not the actual Tony Blair, obvs, since he's a war criminal.
    posted by Artw at 1:03 AM on June 27, 2016 [8 favorites]


    Brexit has now completely displaced all of the other important stuff that's supposed to be filling my head right now, and promises to do so for months if not years. The same must be true for countless others in the UK and elsewhere. The opportunity cost will be enormous, and is only going to get worse; other crises don't stop happening simply because Britain's voters have self-inflicted the biggest crisis of them all - they compound one another.

    This is another spectacular implication of the older generations voting this onto the younger: not only have they stolen the potential of a future as a full part of Europe, they've dictated what the rest of us will have to do to secure a least-worst future. Instead of helping plan how we'll cope with climate change and energy shocks, how to address inequalities in society, how to help solve the biggest refugee crisis since the War, how to protect the NHS in actual fact rather than "extra £350 million a week" fantasy, we'll be running around trying to reinvent long-forgotten bureaucratic wheels.

    I don't absolve the younger generations here, either; turnout among 18-24s was apparently half the national average, and the missing half might have helped put Remain over the line, so every generation is culpable. (In any case, those missing 18-24-year-olds might not have been as strongly Remain as the ones who actually turned out to vote.) And despite the enormous temptation to do so, I can't hate on the Leave voters expressing buyer's remorse (although this particular example is hard to stomach). They were sold a lie by very practiced and persuasive liars. It's the ones who aren't expressing any sort of remorse who should worry us. Can they not read, or hear, or see what's happening around us?

    It's with no great pleasure that I contemplate my vote in the second Scottish independence referendum - many of the potential problems that gave me pause last time still apply, and even some Yes voters from 2014 must have realised that we had a near-miss once oil prices halved. But the game has changed so utterly that I feel I really have no choice, and from the weekend's polls half a million No voters (out of a total Scottish population of five million) appear to agree. Not least, we need to be able to draw a clear line between Scottish civil society - emphasis on the word "civil" - and the horrific racism now let loose in England. If I were in England, I would do whatever I could to fight that racism on the beaches, to speak up when I see or hear it on a bus or in a cafe, to help any fellow immigrants - and native-born Britons! - under attack, and I am filled with admiration for those English and Welsh people who are steeling themselves for that fight. If I see any of it here in Scotland, I'll do the same, but the mood here is different enough that the racists are still largely lurking rather than revealing themselves - as they pretty much had been in the rest of the UK since the days of the National Front.

    I feel awful about this, as if I'm abandoning the English friends I voted to stick with in 2014. Maybe some last-minute diplomatic miracle will head off Brexit and IndyRef2, but whatever happens the mental landscape of the UK has irrevocably changed. It's going to get so much worse before it gets better.

    (One further reflection that's pretty irrelevant now: the Leave vote among SNP voters was high enough that I can't help wondering if some proportion of them voted that way deliberately to trigger IndyRef2. Something similar has been suggested of Republican voters in NI. People take whatever opportunities they can, I suppose. but it's further evidence of how spectacularly short-sighted and ill-advised David Cameron was to call this referendum in the first place, after No voters saved his bacon in 2014.)
    posted by rory at 1:07 AM on June 27, 2016 [14 favorites]


    On the blairites: Fair question. Not really, except for maybe Chuka Umunna? Who I don’t like (as a politician) for reasons I can’t honestly put my finger on.

    rory: Scotland now has only bad or worse choices. Sorry about that :(
    posted by pharm at 1:09 AM on June 27, 2016


    winterhill: It’s not a reshuffle, it’s a full on coup in progress. At any other time, a cabinet revolt on this scale would be the *only* story on the news.
    posted by pharm at 1:14 AM on June 27, 2016 [3 favorites]


    So why is the news media, including the BBC, focusing so much on internal problems at the Labour party?

    They've been doing that since well before Brexit and would have done it had there been a Remain vote, because they want to be part of the coup against him. Corbyn, for whatever faults he has, represents a genuine threat to the way politics is done in the UK. He has the support of the unions and armies of activists who actually do stuff rather than just show up obediently every five years to vote, plus a vast social media following.
    posted by Coda Tronca at 1:16 AM on June 27, 2016


    oneswellfoop: "It's a sad aspect of General Human Nature, but seems more prominent among Guys Like Me (White, Anglo, Xtian)."

    It just looks that way when you're in a country traditionally ruled by White Anglo Xtian folks. Unfortunately, venturing outside these countries you'll find it's equally prominent pretty much everywhere.
    posted by Bugbread at 1:19 AM on June 27, 2016 [6 favorites]


    When I was talking this over with my folks on the phone yesterday they said they'd seen a TV news clip of a Leave voter on Friday saying they'd won back the Britain of Winston Churchill. "Great," I said, "bombed into ruins, and facing a decade of rationing."
    posted by rory at 1:28 AM on June 27, 2016 [24 favorites]


    Right. I'm sure it has nothing to do with the fact that Corbyn failed to display any enthusiasm for Remain and stood by as a giant chunk of Labour's base has apparently walked out the door to join with UKIP and the Tories. If he represents such a genuine threat, why isn't he leading a grand lefty revolution right now instead of watching his former supporters march with right-wing nationalists?
    posted by zachlipton at 1:36 AM on June 27, 2016 [4 favorites]


    Do these Blairites have an actual fucking Tony Blair equivalent* stuck up their sleeves? That would almost be welcome in this climate, as opposed to them having more shitiness and chaos in which case they can jump into the same bonfire they're throwing Corbyn into.

    David Miliband spotted flying home over the weekend.
    posted by rory at 1:39 AM on June 27, 2016


    why isn't he leading a grand lefty revolution right now

    He's an MP not a revolutionary. He's doing what he thinks is right for the people that voted him leader, not the people who've been plotting against him for months, but as everyone knows, the issue is confused by the fact that he had some perfectly legitimate reasons for not supporting the EU strongly.
    posted by Coda Tronca at 1:54 AM on June 27, 2016


    I don't absolve the younger generations here, either; turnout among 18-24s was apparently half the national average, and the missing half might have helped put Remain over the line, so every generation is culpable.

    Not intervening to help a shooting victim, and pulling the trigger while pointing the barrel at someone's face, these are not equivalent acts. Some degree of culpability for not getting involved may be warranted, but you do nobody any justice to pretend like this wasn't the older generation voting to burn it all down, and they should consequently bear the brunt of the blame (even as the young bear the brunt of the consequences).
    posted by Dysk at 1:58 AM on June 27, 2016 [1 favorite]


    That genie is out of the bottle. Denmark and Holland will go next.

    So, this is what it feels like when your blood runs cold.

    I just emailed my husband and told him it's time at least one of us (intra-EU immigrants living permanently in the Netherlands) starts applying for Dutch citizenship. We haven't done that in all these years because NL expects you to give up your original nationality, and that still feels quite awful to me.

    But having built a life here for more than 12 years, with kids who've lived here since they were babies and who identify as Dutch (despite not being that on paper), too much is at risk, no matter how small the chance of Nexit is.

    My deepest sympathies to everyone in the UK. If anything, hearing that ominous 'you're next' gave me a glimpse of how it must feel. I'm so sorry. This is madness.
    posted by sively at 2:00 AM on June 27, 2016 [7 favorites]


    My deepest sympathies to everyone in the UK. If anything, hearing that ominous 'you're next' gave me a glimpse of how it must feel. I'm so sorry. This is madness.

    This also helps to illustrate how hurtful and spiteful those gloatingly and gleefully celebrating this are being, really.
    posted by Dysk at 2:05 AM on June 27, 2016 [2 favorites]


    you do nobody any justice to pretend like this wasn't the older generation voting to burn it all down, and they should consequently bear the brunt of the blame

    I'm not pretending that at all. I'm Gen X - I've been living with the voting legacies of boomers my whole life. But the 36% turnout among youngest voters is significant - it does weaken the "75% of the young were Remain" claim, as we can't be sure how many of the non-voters would have been. Even if it was 75% across the board, we still saw 25% of young voters chuck their own future out of the window.

    People of all ages did this. People of all parts of Britain did this. Yes, 3 in 5 Scottish voters went for Remain, but the other 2 in 5 were part of Leave's victory just as much as Angry of Bolton.
    posted by rory at 2:06 AM on June 27, 2016 [3 favorites]


    I am completely fine with holding everyone who voted leave responsible, regardless of their demographics. I will not for a moment accept those who did not vote to throw the rights and lives of their fellow European citizens (British and otherwise) into turmoil being held responsible on anything like the same level as those that did.
    posted by Dysk at 2:10 AM on June 27, 2016 [2 favorites]


    rory: Scotland now has only bad or worse choices. Sorry about that :(

    The Wings Over Scotland post "Notes from the Madhouse" provides an interesting (albeit partisan) summary of the changes afoot here since Friday morning. Scotland has a substantial set of media commentators, business leaders and electors who have expressed guarded or heartfelt pledges to change to the "Yes" side.

    My personal take is that focused leadership, an unambiguous pro-European stance, the influx of businesses wanting access to the wider market, and a relatively export-focused economy - would all bode pretty well for an independent Scotland. The biggest issue would probably be our relationship with Westminster and with an England going who knows where.
    posted by rongorongo at 2:17 AM on June 27, 2016 [1 favorite]


    No, but surely if you abdicate your responsibility (by not voting) - essentially you're saying "I don't care, do what you want" - you lose the moral high ground on outrage. It's not the same level of responsibility, but you have contributed to what happened.
    posted by Ilira at 2:20 AM on June 27, 2016 [2 favorites]


    Not on anything like the same level, Dysk - I absolutely agree. But "not intervening to help a shooting victim" is still not great.

    I'm from one of the few countries in the world that has compulsory voting. This is why it matters. Even when it gives us a crap result, at least we can collectively, definitively own it.
    posted by rory at 2:20 AM on June 27, 2016 [1 favorite]


    Le Monde posted a commentary late on Sunday that draws heavily on a longish comment from a couple of days ago in the Graunaid..

    Someone called 'Teebs' wrote...

    posted by Mister Bijou at 2:21 AM on June 27, 2016


    A crucial part of what tripped up the "Regrexit" camp is that they're used to General Elections fought under first past the post, where again and again their vote makes no difference, and in safe seats they can piss about with protest votes and what have you. They totally misunderstood the nature of a national referendum where every vote towards either side counts.

    But that misunderstanding isn't all on them: it's on the political classes failing to inform them properly, and sometimes even wanting to keep them ill-informed. I think now that the AV referendum was a big part of why this one went as it did: an obvious improvement to Britain's voting system was undermined because the two main parties wanted to play party politics with it, and wanted to preserve their own chances of winning absolute power outright rather than risk a future of messy coalitions and compromise. AV was portrayed as "too complicated", when from the voter's point of view all it involved was numbering the candidates to rank them rather than writing an X in a box. The AV debate indulged a popular sense that votes didn't matter, that, literally, how you vote doesn't matter.
    posted by rory at 2:22 AM on June 27, 2016 [3 favorites]


    The Hamptons is not a defensible position

    (The pithy and wonderful Mark Blyth on the Brexit vote)
    posted by Joseph Gurl at 2:28 AM on June 27, 2016 [4 favorites]


    (Just to note that I won't be ignoring any replies to any of these latest comments of mine, but am tied up for the rest of the day, so apologies in advance for the silence. I'll keep trying to take part in the conversation when I can.)
    posted by rory at 2:31 AM on June 27, 2016


    Not intervening to help a shooting victim, and pulling the trigger while pointing the barrel at someone's face, these are not equivalent acts.

    It's not that young people who didn't vote failed to help a shooting victim - it's that they failed to help prevent the shooting in the first place. They saw a man in real danger of being shot, a man whose death would severely damage their own futures, and decided they couldn't be bothered to help stop it.

    I'm not for a moment absolving any generation from blame in this - least of all the older Leave voters - but the fact remains that a higher turnout among the young may have been enough to prevent the disaster we're now embarking on. Same goes for the fools of all ages who thought they could cast a harmless protest vote for Leave without tipping the verdict.

    What's done is done, but I hope the lessons this result offers for all of us will not be wasted: Use your vote, and take its consequences seriously.
    posted by Paul Slade at 2:36 AM on June 27, 2016 [1 favorite]


    They saw a man in real danger of being shot, a man whose death would severely damage their own futures, and decided they couldn't be bothered to help stop it.

    Given that the idea of leave winning had little enough credibility anywhere that even Farage was declaring defeat after the polls closed, in bit sure characterising what people saw a a man in servere danger of getting shot. A possibility of that happening, yes.

    ...and while we all rush to damn those that did not intervene, we allow those that pulled the trigger to fade slowly from view, never to be held responsible for their actions. Because it's so much more important to start pointing fingers at people who didn't get involved.
    posted by Dysk at 2:40 AM on June 27, 2016


    Oh, so that Independent link to the regretful Leave voter is a piece of work, but I'm pretty sure I see the outlines of the Regrexit defence now: Those snotty Remainers are to blame, because they weren't nice enough to us.

    However, it does point something out pretty clearly, which is that a hell of a lot of UK voters have got so used to treating ANY EU-related vote as an opportunity to protest, if they can be bothered to vote at all, that this horrible outcome is much more predictable than it seems. The high turnout is the only thing that surprises me now.
    posted by skybluepink at 2:44 AM on June 27, 2016 [4 favorites]


    This was Owen Jones calling it last Tuesday. Leave was a clear threat right up to Thursday. If anyone was complacent about that, and either capriciously voted Leave or figured it didn't matter and so didn't bother voting, then they're part of Leave's victory.

    But yes, absolutely, definitely, the ones who actually voted Leave brought us here the most, whether they feel bad about it now or not. A "Regrexit" voter had exactly the same influence in the actual voting booth as Nigel Farage himself.
    posted by rory at 2:48 AM on June 27, 2016 [2 favorites]


    How many of the people that didn't vote read Owen Jones, do you reckon? There was a widespread understanding, however wrong, however misguided, and however pocked with exceptions (I have been certain of this outcome since before the last GE, when the idea of a referendum was first floated, for example), that it would go to Remain. This was widespread and credible enough with enough people to induce huge movements in both currency and betting markets before the result.
    posted by Dysk at 2:56 AM on June 27, 2016 [1 favorite]


    This Teebs person could probably get a job in punditry by now.
    posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 3:08 AM on June 27, 2016 [1 favorite]


    Mod note: A couple of comments deleted. Dear friends, as a quick "state of the thread" address: this discussion is coming up on 3,000 comments (and whenever a new one is posted, it, too, will become a megathread), so in light of this, I'd like to ask that we refrain from pursuing every derail (including deconstructing analogies at length, as difficult as that may be), making jokey comments about all the suffering everyone has in store, reposting that one link to the teebs/guardian comment over and over again, and finally, if you have a high number of comments here, please consider slowing it way down. We don't have the bandwidth to be an IRC chat or twitter equivalent here, so let's try to keep it focused. (There is Mefi chat for anyone who wants to chat, and threads like this are actually the reason we originally established that option.)
    posted by taz (staff) at 3:08 AM on June 27, 2016 [14 favorites]


    The madman is England. We have taken leave of our senses, in every respect.

    (Trading in RBS was suspended earlier, after ten billion pounds had been wiped off the banks value. As the state is the majority shareholder, we have lost more since Thursday in that one holding than we sent to the EU last year. The FTSE as a whole is down one percent this morning.)

    I have a fantasy - no more than that, alas - that the SNP, being the only functioning political party in Westminster, sets out an emergency manifesto for a coalition of national unity and creates a majority in the HoC of anti-Brexit MPs from all sides. It would suspend any intention to invoke Article 50 pending the creation of a workable post-Brexit model agreed in principle with EU, with a time limit after which the referendum result would be put aside if no agreement in principle can be reached. I think that is a good democratic compromise in a representative Parliament.

    There will be riots. But there will be riots anyway, either when a post-Brexit Britain reaches an agreement with the EU that includes free movement of people, or when no such agreement is reached, the economy goes into deep recession and the state social contract collapses. And the argument can be advanced that if an agreement can be reached with the EU that does deliver on the Leave promises, then the referendum will stand.

    There's a whole bunch of other things that need doing immediately, because we are now deep into a really major financial crisis, the reality of which is being masked by the political chaos distracting the nation.

    It's a really hard path to go down, but I think it would be the least bad way forward. If I were an MP of any party, I'd like to think that I'd be prepared to take the very real risk to my political career in supporting such a move, because I would feel I had been elected to represent the best interests of my electorate and this is what is now needed.

    A fantasy. It's all I have.
    posted by Devonian at 3:24 AM on June 27, 2016 [25 favorites]


    Thank you, of course that's what you meant. And yes, you're right. The General Monck solution.

    Brexit impact will be worse than the 2008 crash.
    posted by Grangousier at 3:47 AM on June 27, 2016 [1 favorite]


    My biggest concern right now, other than finding a job up there, is the thought that increased Scottish nationalist sentiment could cause problems for me as an English person.

    winterhill - For what it's worth, I'm an English person who's lived and studied/worked in Scotland for nearly 18 years now, and this has not been a problem in my experience. I'm not going to claim that anti-English sentiment doesn't exist anywhere for anyone (or that it doesn't get a little bit wearying every time there's a global football tournament and people won't shut up about how England won't shut up about 1966, sigh), but virulent anti-English sentiment has not at all been a part of my experience. The SNP have been pushing a model of civic nationalism (including calls for increased immigration) for a good length of time now, and the xenophobic model of nationalism is much more in a minority than it is in many other countries with a strong nationalist voice.

    That said I don't look forward to the prospect of another independence referendum, and I am not even sure which way I would vote. But whatever happens with that, I am staying in Scotland.
    posted by Catseye at 3:51 AM on June 27, 2016 [4 favorites]


    Some thoughts (Context 39 yo Scottish citizen with wife from another EU country).

    1. To start this lightly- my wife and I often joked that she had married me for my passport (she having come from a Eastern European country who hadn't then joined the EU). That joke remains but is reversed.
    2. I picked my son up from nursery in Glasgow Friday- due to his mother's passport he may be free to live love and learn anywhere in the EU, his classmates could be denied that opportunity in full should the UK remain whole and go all in on the "our country" schtick.
    3. The Leave camp was made up of many disparate pieces. It is possible to be a lefty utopian or a right wing xenophobe and to have voted Leave. (The majority of Leave seemed fuelled by the xenophobe view imo.) There is no coherent or cogent Leave negotiating position or indeed even principles that are broadly agreed upon.
    4. The true believers who voted for Leave "to take our country back" will see very little of what they assumed would happen (in order to retain some EU trade deals likely UK will have even less say over immigration and legislation a la Norway). These people will become more aggrieved due to perceived betrayal. ("How come the Asians are still here, I voted them out?" These people are morons, and I am not in any way defending them, but it'll be even easier for someone to sell them a further narrative of betrayal, to assure them that if we are even more hateful they can achieve their goals.)
    5. The urge for a strong (wo)man... Looking to someone who has a clue is all too human an impulse in crisis. When Nicola Sturgeon comes on the radio and sounds assured, stateswomanlike, and generally together, I get some relief. This is not healthy though- when people feel uncertainty they go for those that seem as though they have the answers. (This isn't a criticism of Sturgeon by the way, I really couldn't think of a better First Minister for these times, but people looking for a saviour with answers is not healthy).

    I see four likely scenarios for the UK.
    i) Kick the can down the road and never push the article 50 button. (Leading to feelings of betrayal, a narrative of democracy denied for those that voted leave and have not since regretted it.)
    ii) UK leave and EU play hard ball pour encourager les autres, and give UK a bully ramming economically. (Which some see as unlikely as Europe "needs" UK trade- however EU may feel it "needs" to play rough to head off other countries going the same route as UK.)
    iii) Scotland remain in Europe, backed by EU in negotiations with rUK. (This could be a best case scenario for those primarily interested in Scottish independence. Having EU strongly on Scotland's side in divorce proceedings would be as good a bargaining position that Scotland could wish for. (Could Scotland end up being asked to "take on" some form of role for Northern Ireland should they decide to stick around in EU?)
    iv) General Election where Leave get a hammering and Ref result considered overtaken by this mandate- but as no UK-wide political party has been able or willing to nail its colours to the mast as unrepentantly pro Europe this seems unlikely without a major realignment in British politics.

    Sorry for the (Hadrian's) wall of text.
    posted by Gratishades at 3:54 AM on June 27, 2016 [17 favorites]


    About anti-Englishness in Scotland - it's worst in deprived and/or isolated communities. In Edinburgh, where I now live, I haven't encountered it once. But that's Edinburgh. Also, I have no interest in sport and will cheerfully agree with anyone who disses the English in that arena, which does have certain disarming properties.

    Family members who live in a very deprived and isolated area of Scotland (how that came to be will be a novel one day - it all started with an orgy in a Newham terrace) say the anti-Englishness is real, wearing but not particularly threatening.

    There are a LOT of English people in Scotland. It is, in general, a very friendly place for immigrants.
    posted by Devonian at 4:05 AM on June 27, 2016 [2 favorites]


    I wonder how Scottish tolerance will fare against the (potential) extra influx of English. I have heard many people quite seriously discussing a move north of the border, and I'm having similar thoughts. Obviously not everyone who talks about it will go, but it seems likely there'll be a surge.

    There's irony in that.
    posted by Ilira at 4:07 AM on June 27, 2016 [1 favorite]


    ... but as no UK-wide political party has been able or willing to nail its colours to the mast as unrepentantly pro Europe ..

    Well, technically the Lib Dems.
    posted by vacapinta at 4:19 AM on June 27, 2016 [4 favorites]


    How many brexiters does it take to change a lightbulb?

    I NEVER SAID THERE WAS A LIGHTBULB
    posted by litleozy at 4:22 AM on June 27, 2016 [65 favorites]


    An alternative view (I know this kind of thing is not popular at all here at the moment but I still think the thread benefits from a mix):

    Now much of the English middle class is wringing its hands crying “How could the Chav-Losers do this to us?” The answer is because you have treated them like rubbish for decades.
    posted by Coda Tronca at 4:30 AM on June 27, 2016 [6 favorites]




    My current least worst option ideas/hopes:

    1) Norway route. We satisfy the letter of the referendum by leaving the EU, but retain access to the common market along with all obligations that go with that. Politicians have to work hard to sell this to the population, but avoids the economy tanking. EU are able to point to us as an example that all a leave vote means is paying more and getting less input.

    2) "We can't negotiate what we promised". BoJo/Gove end up in power, and take a few months for negotiations. Over this time the economy and media coverage continues negatively. On the basis that the economy is in a decline and the EU will not give us a favourable EEA deal, the government call a swift re-run of the referendum. Argument being that the main points have already been given, but that the Leave case has been substantially altered by negotiations. Campaigning this time around is essentially "We're into a recession, losing jobs, your money is worth less, and your holidays cost more - do you want to stop this?" versus "carry on with the decline". UKIP on one side, rest of the Leave campaign moving to Remain. Does depend on people not repeating what happened in the first round, but hopefully people are scared enough by then to turn out/not protest vote. EU are able to point at the UK as an example of the damage that a Leave vote can do to yourself.
    posted by MattWPBS at 5:01 AM on June 27, 2016 [3 favorites]


    I'm afraid a hardline EU stance and the mechanics of Article 50 invalidate scenario #2 - the EU won't negotiate until UK pulls the trigger, and there's no going back once they do.
    posted by Dr Dracator at 5:05 AM on June 27, 2016 [3 favorites]


    Does anyone have any idea who organised the #MoreInCommon campaign? Google is just turning up a bunch of idiotic newspaper articles about the Remain campaign unnecessarily politicising the political assassination of Jo Cox by a right wing terrorist. I want to get in contact with them, so just knowing their names would be a start!
    posted by asok at 5:05 AM on June 27, 2016


    Goes the day well?

    Boris: The pound is stable

    Pound continues free-fall collapse through multi-decade lows - four percent down on the day. So far.

    Boris: It's the end of Project Fear

    Markets: AAAAAARGH!

    Press: Look! it's all about Labour!

    Me: is it too soon for gin?
    posted by Devonian at 5:06 AM on June 27, 2016 [7 favorites]


    Does anyone have any idea who organised the #MoreInCommon campaign?

    Looks like this may be the origin: http://freedomfund.org/blog/moreincommon/
    posted by effbot at 5:08 AM on June 27, 2016 [1 favorite]



    2) "We can't negotiate what we promised".


    2a) We can't negotiate what we promised...... but we lie about it anyway to keep power and blame it on the lefties, the immigrants and all the non-real british people.
    posted by lalochezia at 5:08 AM on June 27, 2016 [2 favorites]


    Me: is it too soon for gin?

    The answer to that question is always, always "no" and in this case it's positively required.
    posted by billiebee at 5:15 AM on June 27, 2016 [3 favorites]


    A vote for gin is a vote against gout.
    posted by vbfg at 5:19 AM on June 27, 2016 [11 favorites]


    This is another spectacular implication of the older generations voting this onto the younger

    Nah ... as mentioned above, turnout among 18-24 year-olds was only 36%.
    So this means that 66% of them simply didn't care either way. At least not enough to go vote.

    If you don't care enough to have an opinion, someone else will make the decision for you.
    posted by sour cream at 5:19 AM on June 27, 2016


    Coda Tronce: Now much of the English middle class is wringing its hands crying “How could the Chav-Losers do this to us?” The answer is because you have treated them like rubbish for decades.

    Being fair, this seems to be a journalist calling the mood and motivations of the British working class, despite living in Berlin since the 1990s.

    Dr Dracator: I'm afraid a hardline EU stance and the mechanics of Article 50 invalidate scenario #2 - the EU won't negotiate until UK pulls the trigger, and there's no going back once they do.

    I'm hoping they'll be satisfied with the prospect of showing the damage to the UK with scenario #2, rather than forcing Article 50. Alternatively, the lack of negotiation could be used as the argument for "we can't get what we promised". I'll admit, they're hopes rather than expectations. My expectation is more along the lines of this scene from a stereotypical British film.
    posted by MattWPBS at 5:25 AM on June 27, 2016




    What I keep thinking is that people who consider themselves left in any country should be paying very, very close attention to what happens next. This is exactly what many [middle class - that gets left out all the time] people on the left say they want - a vote against neoliberalism and for economic chaos from the working class, which [says the middle class left] has made an informed decision to stick it to Brussels and/or burn things to the ground. Working people understand, we say, that things can't possibly get worse for them - so it's completely rational to vote from a position of absolute anti-.

    And now we get to see what happens. Is there enough strength in existing left formations to make something good happen politically? Will some new thing emerge in the next six months? Was popular intuition right and crashing the pound, the Dow and the City have some kind of redistributive effect since it will weaken the wealthy?

    I would like nothing better and I am absolutely willing to eat my words in a couple of years if we're looking at a rump UK that is in some meaningful sense better for working people [including that forgotten constituency, working class people of color*]. Maybe I am a giant, reformist pessimist and if I were more revolutionary I'd be siding with the Trots. I don't even know. It's possible that I am blinded by my experiences and class position.

    But if things are terrible in six months, in a year, in two years - everyone who has been talking accelerationism, burning things to the ground and the intuitive force of working class consciousness needs to take a hard, hard look at where things ended up.

    *This thought is what drove me to comment in this thread, because it is a commonality of UK and American politics that we talk as though "the working class" is only white people. How did working class people of color vote on Brexit, and what are they enduring now? I have seen very little actual commentary from working class leftists, for that matter - lots of middle class leftists with secure jobs and international fame, of course.
    posted by Frowner at 5:32 AM on June 27, 2016 [20 favorites]


    So Corbyn says he's not going to step down, since he's not going "betray the trust of those who voted for me", yet all signs indicate that he actively hindered the Remain campaign, and most likely voted Leave himself. Classy guy.

    MP Jess Philips definitely didn't hold back the punches in her resignation letter:
    Writing or saying anything against you risks my job, the livelihood of my family, the threats are already rolling in. Turns out when you stand up for what you believe in you are principled; when I do it, I am an opportunist, careerist, Blairite of even a Zionist plotter. Funny that. I am a socialist. I live my life as a socialist. I speak up regardless of the risk because I am considerably less important than the struggle. [...]
    I am really worried that you cannot see that you have made this all about you and not about [the people in UK]. Be the socialist you say you are, do the right thing and let the Labour party be the opposition it needs to be now, when people need it most.
    (her latest update is a retweet of some twitter egg going "why Dnt u go to hell with ur lover Tony Blair ??". They're such nice people, the Corbynistas.)
    posted by effbot at 5:36 AM on June 27, 2016 [3 favorites]


    The "we can't get what we promised" argument would be a pretty spectacular about-face, given how it was already put in writing and signed by both parties that there's not going to be any more negotiation after the referendum.

    Then again I seem to recall another recent case of an EU referendum that turned out more or less this way.
    posted by Dr Dracator at 5:37 AM on June 27, 2016


    I walked from Liverpool to London - Brexit was no surprise
    Oh, my next door neighbour wrote that.
    He always has such interesting stories to tell...
    posted by Just this guy, y'know at 5:38 AM on June 27, 2016 [1 favorite]


    Being fair, this seems to be a journalist calling the mood and motivations of the British working class, despite living in Berlin since the 1990s.

    He's an American "investigative journalist" who lives in Germany and hates the German establishment more than anything else in the world (the EU is part of that establishment, of course). A bit of a twist on the "these pesky foreigners" thing.
    posted by effbot at 5:38 AM on June 27, 2016 [1 favorite]


    Meanwhile the Scottish Government has tabled a motion on Scotland's relationship with the EU that will be debated in the Scottish Parliament tomorrow.

    Right now I feel like we are having several years' worth of history happening over just a few days.
    posted by kariebookish at 5:38 AM on June 27, 2016 [7 favorites]


    This is exactly what many [middle class - that gets left out all the time] people on the left say they want - a vote against neoliberalism and for economic chaos from the working class, which [says the middle class left] has made an informed decision to stick it to Brussels and/or burn things to the ground.

    Maybe I'm misreading this, but when you say "many" do you mean "a lot, possibly most" or do you mean "a very very small number of loud people on the internet"? Because I very much don't want to burn things to the ground and I think (but hey, maybe I'm way off here), but I think I'm in the comfortable majority on this one.
    posted by (Arsenio) Hall and (Warren) Oates at 5:38 AM on June 27, 2016 [3 favorites]


    View from a Northern Irish person on twitter. I want to stress that this not a new concept for us. I'm 30, so I remember checkpoints as a kid. I remember machine guns and dogs. My dad making sure we weren't nervous while he was being asked patronising questions by the armed men inspecting his driving license...and checking under our car forexplosives. This used to be EVERY FUCKING DAY. This won't be some new, weird thing - this will be a direct, unbidden return to something we worked very, very hard to get away from.
    posted by T.D. Strange at 5:40 AM on June 27, 2016 [28 favorites]


    I am really worried that you cannot see that you have made this all about you

    I really can't back this.
    Corbyn just is not the egotist that she seems to make out.
    By all accounts Jess Phillips is an excellent constituency MP, but she isn't shy of taking centre stage when she can.

    It's terrible that it's come to this for the Labour party, but I think the time for compromise is gone.
    It probably has to come to a split, because the membership won't accept Corbyn being replaced, but he's not at all supported by the machinery or the MPs.

    Corbyn's position on the EU was the only one which talked to me. Because he's the only UK politician who said, that the EU isn't very good, but staying is better than leaving.
    That's a stance I totally buy. All the people who came out and said that the EU was the best thing ever were being transparently disingenuous. Sadly that's probably what's needed. A firebrand rabble rouser is exactly what Corbyn isn't. If only there was a respectably left leaning shiny suited orator that Corbyn could endorse before he's pushed.
    posted by Just this guy, y'know at 5:55 AM on June 27, 2016 [10 favorites]


    John Oliver
    posted by Joey Michaels at 6:06 AM on June 27, 2016


    View from a Northern Irish person on twitter.

    Expanded edition here.
    posted by snuffleupagus at 6:08 AM on June 27, 2016 [6 favorites]


    Just this guy, y'know:

    Pretty much. I think the mass resignations demonstrate a lack of confidence in Corbyn's managerial and leadership competence as much as - or more than - any right wing plot. That seems to be the Angela Eagle position: sorry but he's just not up to it. However much the membership like him, if he can't manage the available team to actually get things done, then what's the point to him? It's necessary for any half-way competent leader to sacrifice some of their autonomy to unify the team - any leader, any team, not just party politics. A failure or refusal to do that will fail. The alternative strategy - to build a team in your own image - isn't leadership either. And will fail.

    I'm 51. I've seen too many honourable Labour failures to be enthused about another one.
    posted by Grangousier at 6:08 AM on June 27, 2016 [8 favorites]


    It probably has to come to a split, because the membership won't accept Corbyn being replaced, but he's not at all supported by the machinery or the MPs.

    He also has the support of the unions and they won't stand for the Blairites trying to change the rules to kill off Corbyn in a new leadership election.
    posted by Coda Tronca at 6:10 AM on June 27, 2016


    Corbyn's position on the EU was the only one which talked to me. Because he's the only UK politician who said, that the EU isn't very good, but staying is better than leaving.

    Sure, if he had actually canvassed that viewpoint with any enthusiasm, or let someone more enthusiastic be the face of Remain for Labour.
    posted by Azara at 6:11 AM on June 27, 2016 [5 favorites]


    Yeah, I mean.. my sympathies are with Corbyn. Strongly so.
    the Labour party desperately need a return to these sorts of policies, and would pick up votes if it ran with them.
    But by this point Corbyn's media image is so damaged I think there's probably nothing more he can do. Maybe he should go.
    I just don't want to see him go and have him replaced by any of Tony Blair's proteges.

    I don't disagree with you Azara,
    except to say that it's pretty hard to passionately preach a view of "the eu is not very good but leaving would be worse" It's not a very pithy slogan.
    posted by Just this guy, y'know at 6:20 AM on June 27, 2016 [3 favorites]


    So this means that 66% of them simply didn't care either way. At least not enough to go vote.

    That they didn't vote doesn't mean they didn't care. Maybe they didn't feel informed enough and didn't want to make exactly the mistake we now see so many people in the Daily Mail comments rueing having made. The election was held right at the start of university and school holidays, with many people being caught out by being registered somewhere they moved out of a week or two before the vote. Maybe they felt competely disengaged from everything politics in the UK, but decided against acting out with a protest vote to burn it all down.



    I would like nothing better and I am absolutely willing to eat my words in a couple of years if we're looking at a rump UK that is in some meaningful sense better for working people [including that forgotten constituency, working class people of color*].

    Doubly forgotten - working people from other EU countries, especially when marginalised in some other way as well (PoC, queer, disabled, etc). There is literally no talk of our acknowledgment of this demographic existing (and being the most at risk at present) even when people dehumanisingly talk about Polish workers purely as an economic force competing with Working People (utterly failing to recognise that this makes them Working People as well).
    posted by Dysk at 6:28 AM on June 27, 2016 [6 favorites]


    Except that Corbyn thinks that things may not be all bad, forever, as a result of the collapse of the EU (I am well aware that everyone on this thread disagrees).

    As things stand maybe he will emerge as the only option for getting Britain out with the interests of workers as even a consideration in the negotiations: this would be 'Jexit.'
    posted by Coda Tronca at 6:29 AM on June 27, 2016


    Corbyn also lacks the support of the media, not in the way that Labour have often been opposed by most of the papers for a long time but he is opposed by a broadcast media which is supposed to be balanced but seems to be in a sort of parasitic/symbiotic relationship with the right hand half of his party.

    Is there a labour candidate who can link up the wishes of the Labour members but also get the media more on side? And then actually do the job of brining his key areas of support back on board in the country? Earlier in the thread people said Watson, can he do all of these things?
    posted by biffa at 6:35 AM on June 27, 2016


    Ha, and how.

    Did you see the story about how Corbyn was heckled at pride?

    Did you see any newspapers reporting that the Heckler was Tom Mauchline, a PR professional for PR firm Portland Communications, formerly working on the Liz Kendall leadership campaign.
    Did any papers ever report any other politician being heckled, as they all are, always?
    Nope.
    posted by Just this guy, y'know at 6:39 AM on June 27, 2016 [9 favorites]


    "I am really worried that you cannot see that you have made this all about you"

    Coming from Jess Phillips, to a personally modest but totally dedicated activist for 30 years on everything from LGBT rights to Amnesty International, that just says it all about the type of MP Labour has allowed to thrive inside its system.
    posted by Coda Tronca at 6:40 AM on June 27, 2016 [1 favorite]


    when you say "many" do you mean "a lot, possibly most" or do you mean "a very very small number of loud people on the internet"

    I mean quite a few people who consider themselves left-as-opposed-to-reformist (and in the US, left-as-opposed-to-liberal) - New Left Review people, for instance. I think this is a huge test of the ideas of that left - if at least a meaningful even if unsuccessful left movement emerges out of this, or if in three or four years things are more equal generally and living conditions aren't worse, then that's a case (to a degree) for that left. If no significant movement coalesces and/or things go absolutely to hell, it's a case against. I've spent my whole life around people who ardently believe that given a serious enough crisis, a powerful left movement will emerge, not quite from nothing but certainly from very little, and that therefore crisis should generally be understood as opportunity. I desperately hope this is correct and that my doubts are wrong.

    posted by Frowner at 6:42 AM on June 27, 2016 [2 favorites]


    Stop the tiny writing please.
    posted by biffa at 6:48 AM on June 27, 2016 [13 favorites]


    But by this point Corbyn's media image is so damaged

    By at this point you meant the moment Blairites joked ha ha ha lets put the old trot on the ballot so we don't look completely out of touch oh shit he might win quick send Tony do an op-ed on the Guardian ?

    I agree Corbyn is too much of an idealist and not too enough of a simpleton mouthing off slogans which is what campaign politics is all about now (look Boris, Farage), but the moment he was elected, New Labour was already plotting to take him out. Same thing is happening here, and the current Socialist Party head isn't even a socialist (he just hangs around them).
    posted by lmfsilva at 6:48 AM on June 27, 2016 [2 favorites]


    A Polish ex-colleague of mine who lives in London (and has lived there for 20+ years) posted on FB that she was worried post-ref about what might happen to her. First comment (from a co-worker, I believe) read: "well, you have a Polish passport, don't you?"

    I no longer have words.
    posted by kariebookish at 6:51 AM on June 27, 2016 [11 favorites]


    Also, the Polish Centre here in Hammersmith was attacked.
    posted by Just this guy, y'know at 6:55 AM on June 27, 2016 [1 favorite]


    BBC -- Brexit: Germany rules out informal negotiations

    The German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, has said there can be no talks on Brexit before the UK formally begins the process of leaving the EU.
    While accepting the UK needed time, she added it should not be a "long time".
    Mrs Merkel is due to meet the French president and Italian prime minister later in Berlin, with the speed of negotiations for the UK's exit high on the agenda.


    The UK's chief finance minister issued a statement to try to calm markets.

    Nonetheless, Sterling falls and bank, airline and property shares tumble:

    Yields on 10-year government bonds sank below 1% for the first time.
    Shares in airlines, housebuilders and banks were worst hit, with sharp falls causing a momentary halt in trading as automatic circuit breakers kicked in.
    The falls came after Chancellor George Osborne tried to calm the markets.

    ...
    The pound fell 3.6% to $1.3170, having earlier hit a fresh 31-year low of $1.3151, sinking below the level it had fallen to on Friday when it recorded its biggest one-day fall ever against the dollar. Against the euro, it was down 2.5% at €1.2016.
    ...
    The FTSE 250 index, which mostly contains companies that are more UK-focused, was down 6% on Monday after sliding 7% on Friday.
    posted by snuffleupagus at 7:02 AM on June 27, 2016 [1 favorite]


    View from a Northern Irish person on twitter.
    Expanded edition here.


    "The Troubles, back as A SIDE EFFECT of a tussle for the leadership of the Conservatives, a party NI citizens don't even fucking vote for."

    For the people who voted to Leave I wonder if any single one of them gave one single thought to the repercussions here. Just a nano-second consideration of what leaving us as the only UK territory with an EU land border would do. A brief contemplation of the effects on the Peace Process of destabilising the Union. Anything at all? Probably not. Much more important to stick it to Europe.
    posted by billiebee at 7:05 AM on June 27, 2016 [30 favorites]


    The UK's chief finance minister issued a statement to try to calm markets.


    Look everyone its the chap who 2 weeks ago said we would have a £30bn hole in national finances if we voted leave, and made it clear there would be a punishment budget. I feel fully reassured.
    posted by biffa at 7:09 AM on June 27, 2016


    > I've spent my whole life around people who ardently believe that given a serious enough crisis, a powerful left movement will emerge, not quite from nothing but certainly from very little, and that therefore crisis should generally be understood as opportunity. I desperately hope this is correct and that my doubts are wrong.

    As an old leftie, I understand the attractiveness of this idea, but history proves it wrong. The main opportunity crisis in this sense (things going to hell in a handbasket) presents is for a new set of jerks to seize power. Now, those jerks may happen to be lefties, but that does not mean they will make things better. See the history of every country that has had a left-wing revolution (as opposed to the kind of "soft" socialism that Lenin despised being voted into power). Anyone who takes the position that "the worse things get, the better" (aka accelerationism) is a scoundrel.
    posted by languagehat at 7:11 AM on June 27, 2016 [51 favorites]


    Michael Rosen's poem sums it up.


    Fascism: I sometimes fear...


    "I sometimes fear that
    people think that fascism arrives in fancy dress
    worn by grotesques and monsters
    as played out in endless re-runs of the Nazis.

    Fascism arrives as your friend.
    It will restore your honour,
    make you feel proud,
    protect your house,
    give you a job,
    clean up the neighbourhood,
    remind you of how great you once were,
    clear out the venal and the corrupt,
    remove anything you feel is unlike you...

    It doesn't walk in saying,
    "Our programme means militias, mass imprisonments, transportations, war and persecution."
    posted by lalochezia at 7:19 AM on June 27, 2016 [45 favorites]


    Much as I'm loath to giving this guy any wordage...: Donald Trump predicts breakup of EU.

    Please let's not let his ramblings get this right, even by accident.
    posted by progosk at 7:40 AM on June 27, 2016


    David Cameron: We have no plan. We will implement this plan.
    posted by dng at 7:40 AM on June 27, 2016 [7 favorites]


    > According to Sky, only 36% of the 18-24 age range bothered to vote, if more had turned out the result may have been very different.

    Wow, that's depressing. It's just your future, kids, but whatevs.
    posted by The Card Cheat at 7:40 AM on June 27, 2016


    The air Trump emits from his arsehole is literally as useful to the debate as that which he emits from his gurning facehole so this thread could probably survive without his moronic witterings ta.
    posted by billiebee at 7:49 AM on June 27, 2016 [20 favorites]


    My biggest concern right now, other than finding a job up there, is the thought that increased Scottish nationalist sentiment could cause problems for me as an English person.

    Back in 2014 there was a strand of SNP/Yes supporters who bemoaned the prevalence of "no" voters in parts of the country with a high number of English residents. But the same people also complained about elderly voters, rugby players, golfers, Rangers supporters, oil rig workers and anybody else from demographics that were thought to have unionist leanings. Sour grapes really - and the majority of nationalists - especially these days - are more likely to reach out to these groups (the SNP party contains a fair number of English members for example).

    If Scotland were to become an independent country within the EU - while England were to exit it - then I guess there is a possibility that your coming here to live and work could prove to be just as bureaucratically complex as going to work in any other European country. So now would be a good time to consider re-location. Bring a jumper and waterproofs.
    posted by rongorongo at 7:53 AM on June 27, 2016 [4 favorites]


    Geoffrey Robertson QC
    How to stop Brexit: get your MP to vote it down
    posted by adamvasco at 8:03 AM on June 27, 2016 [1 favorite]


    Cameron's response right now to Angus Robertson:"Scotland benefits from being in 2 single markets - the UK and the EU. In my opinion the best outcome is to keep Scotland in both." (Emphasis mine)
    posted by vacapinta at 8:04 AM on June 27, 2016 [1 favorite]


    Trump should be left out of any serious discussion about anything that is in any way serious.

    Also this,

    Geoffrey Robertson QC
    How to stop Brexit: get your MP to vote it down
    posted by adamvasco at 8:03 AM on June 27 [+] [!]


    is very interesting. And reassuring.
    posted by From Bklyn at 8:06 AM on June 27, 2016


    If the UK never invokes Article 50, things will "stay the same", but Britain has completely lost any moral authority to negotiate in good faith, or even play any sort of role in the EU as it had up until Thursday.

    Maybe the only thing that could save Britain in the short-term is if a Remain coalition of some kind won the next election.

    However, it seems likely a Conservative-hard Right (UKIP) movement will win the election anyway...

    It will be interesting to see how Johnson, Gove and Farage start to blame Remain for all of the problems Britain is facing post-referendum ("you distorted and misrepresented what the Leave campaign was abou, the elites all immediately said the sky is falling, which became a self-fulfilling prophecy," etc)
    posted by My Dad at 8:13 AM on June 27, 2016


    There was a related Ask on Trump re:Brexit. I complained to the BBC using that link there, namely that they were giving free, front-page coverage to an overt sexist and racist, and got back a response (that I predicted in my complaint and told them was unacceptable) citing their preference for "fair and impartial reporting" and the desire to "bring a range of views to our audiences."

    Maybe someday the media will finally wake up to realizing that they have burnt their value on the pyre of fairness and all we're left with is smoke. A smoke that chokes and makes decent visibility impossible. You'd think that Brexit itself would be the start of a wake-up call. How is it fair and impartial to repeat lies without analysis? Ugh.
    posted by fraula at 8:16 AM on June 27, 2016 [10 favorites]


    I do worry about the fascist backlash that will most assuredly come if Parliament ignores the referendum result. But I also worry about fascist backlash (frontlash?) from Brexit actually proceeding.

    Basically, fascists will take any excuse they can find to go knock heads out in the street, and I don't see anywhere the Britain can go from here that doesn't result in them doing exactly that. What a shitty time to be someone who isn't a dyed in the wool Anglo-Saxon or Celt. For lots of reasons, but also this.
    posted by tobascodagama at 8:16 AM on June 27, 2016 [2 favorites]




    Corbyn totally fucked up in regards to the remain campaign.

    People expect a leaders who will be willing to help them make the hard decisions and despite there being obvious problems with the EU the right decision was staying with Remain. So instead of actually doing the job that a leader should which is helping the public choose between a bunch of fairly bad decisions he kind of abdicated leadership.

    I don't know if that is a reflection of Labour's fear of losing voters to hardcore nationalist parties like the UKIPs or just a reflection of poor leadership abilities on his part because he couldn't whip the Labour MPs into speaking with a joint voice but regardless it shows that despite having some good ideas it's clear that Corbyn seems unable to actually lead a coherent Labour reaction during stressful times.

    The reality is of course Labour needs to be willing to make some strange bedfellows with other Remain supporters. The majority of Labour voters supported remain according to reports so it seems the majority of Labour think that remaining under a European Federal system is preferable to being under a conservative coalition government. It seems like Labour should look to other parties with similar viewpoints and try to form a viable challenge to the Conservatives (who are obviously split in regards to Remain or Leave).

    I just don't know that Corbyn will ever be the type of leader that can inspire a broad coalition of interest groups or if you guys need a Blairite that can present a centrist opposition to Leave. Regardless I can't see the next year going particularly well for Labour even if the next PM holds off on snap elections.

    I'm just kind of shocked that there are people on the left that would rather deal with Tory neoliberal privatization efforts which is much harsher than EU Federalism would ever be. It's totally a case of jumping out of the hot pan and into the fire. Does the left really believe that an exit from the EU would actually result in things being appreciably better for the working class?

    It just seems like a protest vote made in anger rather than an attempt to find a workable solution to the problems of EU bureaucratic opacity. I understand that some on the left are saying this is the result of Chavs raging against austerity and neoliberalism but honestly at least from the sort of anti-immigrant violence thus far it seems like the Chav underclass are more focused on glassing Poles and other immigrants than protesting the elites in the City. This does not seem like a population that is liable to rise up in a proletarian revolution and wash away the neoliberal regime so strategies predicated on that happening seem delusional and destructive. Making the economic situation worse so that more people are willing to take desperate action is the strategy of privilege because presumable those advocating for that are relatively well insulated from the potential impacts of violent change.
    posted by vuron at 8:19 AM on June 27, 2016 [6 favorites]


    Today's House of Commons debate on referendum vote: parliamentlive.tv

    Notable absences: Boris and Gove.
    posted by Mister Bijou at 8:27 AM on June 27, 2016 [3 favorites]



    Re: those who wanted to remain: Cameron, Osbourne, the Corporations, the rich, the powerful - do you think any of these wanted us to stay in the EU as they are progressive and believed that staying in the EU would benefit the poorest, the workers? If you honestly belive that, I don't know what to tell you.


    HITLER WAS A VEGETARIAN! EAT MEAT!
    posted by lalochezia at 8:33 AM on June 27, 2016 [10 favorites]


    > "A future? Really? Please explain how staying in the EU would have given the poorest in the UK a 'future.'"

    You are aware that the people specifically under discussion there are EU citizens from other countries who are resident in the UK, right?
    posted by kyrademon at 8:39 AM on June 27, 2016 [5 favorites]



    Re: those who wanted to remain: Cameron, Osbourne, the Corporations, the rich, the powerful - do you think any of these wanted us to stay in the EU as they are progressive and believed that staying in the EU would benefit the poorest, the workers? If you honestly belive that, I don't know what to tell you.


    also: gove and boris who want to privatize the NHS and remove worker protection laws. those are YOUR standard bearers (and now they can, thanks to removing EU checks on their right wing insanity!). Good luck with that! I can't emphasize this enough. Leavers have taken a shit situation for the poor and working class AND MADE IT WORSE.
    posted by lalochezia at 8:42 AM on June 27, 2016 [16 favorites]


    Of course the EU will want access to the UK markets.

    But the UK absolutely needs access to the EU markets. Yes the UK have the 5th/6th largest economy in the world by GDP (although that number drops dramatically if you look at PPP) but it's an economy that is absolutely dependent on concepts of free trade.

    So what really makes people think that the UK can create a bargain where they get access to the EFTA and even EEA (because that's what Boris is talking about) but then also get control over Britain's borders?

    The Citizen Right Directive is an absolute requirement of being a part of EEA. Brussels will not scrap it. Switzerland is a part of the EFTA and thus isn't subject to the CRD but they already have bilateral deals with the EU.

    So the reality is that Boris and Farage and all the other liars are promising something they absolutely cannot give. The UK is not the US, TTIP is getting negotiated without freedom of movement (which would be a non-starter in the US unfortunately) but there is absolutely no indication that the UK would be able to get access to the EU without doing some sort of reciprocal freedom of movement rule.

    And furthermore even if you somehow eliminated the freedom of movement rules the alternatives are worse. There will still be a demand for cheap workers and plenty of supply in Eastern Europe/Africa/ the Middle East and instead of having legal immigration you will be trading that for undocumented workers which as a Usian living in Texas is a fucking mess.

    Seriously don't make the same mistakes that we did, right wing nationalism does not help workers it just exploits their anger and directs it at minority groups.
    posted by vuron at 8:47 AM on June 27, 2016 [14 favorites]


    Fresh thread: The Full English Brexit
    posted by Mister Bijou at 9:33 AM on June 27, 2016 [3 favorites]


    Did any papers ever report any other politician being heckled, as they all are, always?

    I dunno, I was in Dublin when people threw shoes at Blair. His motorcade nearly hit me when I was crossing a street. The papers wrote quite a bit about that (the shoes, that is, not the random jaywalker).
    posted by effbot at 9:33 AM on June 27, 2016


    Mod note: A few comments removed. marienbad, you need to not keep swinging back to this thread (or the new one) to drop a load of gripes about other comments/commenters and relitigating your position on the subject. Making a post about something contentious and then posting repeated long-form arguments in that post really isn't good MeFi posting practice, please avoid it from now on.
    posted by cortex (staff) at 9:42 AM on June 27, 2016 [7 favorites]


    Mister Bijou, the Guardian says Gove was at the debate, but out of sight by the Speaker's chair or something.
    posted by paduasoy at 10:06 AM on June 27, 2016


    Thanks for the update.

    Out of sight. Not a word.
    posted by Mister Bijou at 10:24 AM on June 27, 2016 [1 favorite]


    Metafilter: it all started with an orgy in a Newham terrace

    Sorry, but don't we all need a laugh at this point?
    posted by mumimor at 10:58 AM on June 27, 2016 [1 favorite]


    As this thread closes and the new one begins, I wanted to say thank you to all who participated in this thread. As a USian who was following closely, it provided an incredible insight into an event that is affecting the entire world. Most importantly, it gave voice to those who are being hurt terribly in this whole process - either by the long-standing systemic inequalities or by the damage wrought by the Brexit vote itself. My best wishes to all of you from across the pond.
    posted by Chanther at 11:30 AM on June 27, 2016 [33 favorites]


    There are a variety of links to left wing pundits in the old thread who are going with the "well serves you right for ignoring the problems of the chavs you posh twits" sort of narrative. I don't know that it is indicative of the majority of pundits on the left many of which seem to be aligning with centrist "elites" in going "Oh shit what have we done".

    But it seems common enough to be annoying, like they are trying to provide moral cover for the Left Leavers and trying to refute the narrative that Leave was primarily motivated by xenophobic racism.

    Aligning yourself with the aims of racists no matter how noble your ends is still aligning yourself with racists.
    Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.


    The emboldening of racists was the most foreseeable outcome of a successful Brexit vote. Leave voters who aren't unapologetic racists, themselves, had no problem risking the happiness and safety of the immigrants and minorities in their community. They looked into the face of xenophobia and shrugged. Now, they tell us about their intentions and their anti-racist stances, like they matter. Meanwhile the emboldened racists are busily making life miserable for anyone with an accent or skin tone they don't like.

    The lesson? Racism is a cancer, not a cold. You do not get better by waiting for it to go away on its own.
    posted by CatastropheWaitress at 2:05 PM on June 27, 2016 [35 favorites]


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