I want to be in the room where it happens
August 8, 2016 9:37 AM   Subscribe

Evan McMullin, former policy director, ex-CIA agent, and devout #NeverTrump-er is running for president. Why should we care? Because he could help turn Utah blue.
posted by lalex (3634 comments total) 82 users marked this as a favorite
 
He's running for President?! I thought he was running for D/CIA under Hillary.
posted by grobstein at 9:41 AM on August 8, 2016 [1 favorite]




Looks like the USA is now officially a Banana Republic.
posted by b1tr0t at 9:44 AM on August 8, 2016 [2 favorites]


I thought he was running for D/CIA under Hillary.

Either that or Grand Potentate of Utah.
posted by a lungful of dragon at 9:44 AM on August 8, 2016 [2 favorites]


When reporting @realDonaldTrump ads to Twitter, what do you say is wrong? Serious question.

All I know is that when I saw "TRUMP 2016" scrawled above a urinal, I reported it to a janitor as hate speech. Children shouldn't be exposed to shit like that.
posted by Faint of Butt at 9:44 AM on August 8, 2016 [24 favorites]


For those disappointed in the supposed "lack of choices" in Presidential Candidates (and I am not amongst them. I'm looking forward to helping elect Hillary Clinton! But I digress...) please be aware that in addition to Mr. McMullen, there are many more fine "third party" and alternative candidates to choose from, including The Antichrist, Dat Ass, Sydneys Voluptuous Buttocks, Eric Cartman, Foot Cheese, Crawfish Crawfish, Ourlordandsaviour Cthulhu, Deez Nuts, Kermit Frog, Mister Grump, Frederickson Asshat Kazoo, Gary Johnson, and Jill Stein.
posted by Cookiebastard at 9:44 AM on August 8, 2016 [85 favorites]


He's got a week to get 1,000 signatures in Utah. If word gets out, he should be able to hit that.
posted by Etrigan at 9:44 AM on August 8, 2016 [4 favorites]


Looks like the USA is now officially a Banana Republic.

GO BANANA!
posted by entropicamericana at 9:45 AM on August 8, 2016 [16 favorites]




I haven't been able to determine, and unless I missed it none of the linked articles mentioned: where's his money coming from?
posted by Dashy at 9:45 AM on August 8, 2016 [1 favorite]


The further along this gets the more it seems like Donald Trump is from a future in which Hillary Clinton wins the presidency by an unprecedented landslide and he has gone back in time believing that he alone can stop this from happening. But everything he does makes that future more likely. He's like Voldemort with the prophecy, simultaneously trying to prevent his own defeat and inadvertently assuring its inevitability.
posted by wabbittwax at 9:46 AM on August 8, 2016 [108 favorites]


Ex-CIA, Wharton, and Goldman Sachs - a perfect poster boy for today's center right liberalism.
posted by ryanshepard at 9:46 AM on August 8, 2016 [14 favorites]


I have been following @DanielDale so that I don't have to actually watch any Trump rallies. The latest thread is a real doozy:

Donald Trump, presidential nominee, calls the unemployment rate "one of the biggest hoaxes in American modern politics." What does this even meeeaaaaan??

The election system, the political parties, the media, the Bureau of Labor Statistics - Trump's theme is "trust no one and nothing but me."
The demagogue/dictator approach is still going strong I see.

It's all so laughably crazy but terrifying at the same time?
posted by like_neon at 9:46 AM on August 8, 2016 [9 favorites]


How long before the Republican nominee starts shittalking the Olympic team? Three days? A week?
posted by Excommunicated Cardinal at 9:48 AM on August 8, 2016 [12 favorites]


I thought he was running for D/CIA under Hillary.

Either that or Grand Potentate of Utah.


He's running for Winning Answer At Your Local Bar's 2018 Trivia Night, at best
posted by prize bull octorok at 9:48 AM on August 8, 2016 [66 favorites]


So it's been fun eating all the popcorn and watching this thing go nuts over the last few weeks, but I'm ready to get off the roller coaster now. This sort of insanity can't keep going til November, right? Right!?
posted by andruwjones26 at 9:48 AM on August 8, 2016 [7 favorites]


What is the "MSM machine"?
posted by VTX at 9:48 AM on August 8, 2016 [3 favorites]


Grand Potentate of Utah Deseret.

My hunch is that Evan McMullen will have no effect on the race at all. I'd say there's a very good chance that by next month everyone will be asking themselves "Who was Evan McMullen?"
posted by octobersurprise at 9:49 AM on August 8, 2016 [6 favorites]


Ex-CIA, Wharton, and Goldman Sachs - a perfect poster boy for today's center right liberalism.

So center-right and liberal he was until this morning the House Republican Conference's policy chief.
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 9:49 AM on August 8, 2016 [25 favorites]


MSM = Mainstream Media
posted by showbiz_liz at 9:50 AM on August 8, 2016 [8 favorites]


The further along this gets the more it seems like Donald Trump is from a future in which Hillary Clinton wins the presidency by an unprecedented landslide and he has gone back in time believing that he alone can stop this from happening.

I can't find the tweet anymore, but something to the effect of "What if Donald Trump's election is why we've never seen any time travelers from the future?" literally kept me awake last night.
posted by Etrigan at 9:50 AM on August 8, 2016 [89 favorites]


What is the "MSM machine"?

Chuck Todd's Tinder handle
posted by prize bull octorok at 9:50 AM on August 8, 2016 [76 favorites]


As a sort-of aside, are there any court cases on the legality of gerrymandering which might be on track to make it to the supreme court or otherwise become law of the land? I guess I'm now curious if it's illegal in any state.
posted by maxwelton at 9:50 AM on August 8, 2016 [2 favorites]


Donald Trump, presidential nominee, calls the unemployment rate "one of the biggest hoaxes in American modern politics." What does this even meeeaaaaan??

Republicans have for years been saying unemployment is understated in the official report because it doesn't count people who have stopped looking for work.
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 9:50 AM on August 8, 2016 [6 favorites]


So center-right and liberal he was until this morning the House Republican Conference's policy chief.

Right, my point exactly.
posted by ryanshepard at 9:51 AM on August 8, 2016 [5 favorites]


DAT ASS/DEEZ NUTS 2016
posted by Lyme Drop at 9:51 AM on August 8, 2016 [34 favorites]


where's his money coming from?

He has organizational help from Republican consultants Rick Wilson and Joel Searby. He is getting some funding from John Kingston, a conservative banker and donor who helped Mitt Romney in his 2012 effort.
posted by a lungful of dragon at 9:52 AM on August 8, 2016 [3 favorites]


Asshat Kazoo, Gary Johnson, and Jill Stein.

There's not a dime's worth of difference!
posted by octobersurprise at 9:53 AM on August 8, 2016 [7 favorites]


(According to Wikipedia, only Iowa offers anything like a science-based approach to districting.

Washington, Idaho, California, and Arizona have commissions, in theory non-partison, to handle districting.

Montana, Wyoming and the Dakotas have no districts.

Everyone else gets to watch their legislatures fuck around with that instead of doing actual work.)
posted by maxwelton at 9:54 AM on August 8, 2016 [12 favorites]


I'm sad #neverTrump is so fractured, but I am beginning to believe that all of our efforts combined will win.
posted by corb at 9:55 AM on August 8, 2016 [39 favorites]


That FEC page includes a Clinton, Bill which is really confusing me. Is it some guy with the same name, or is it fraud, and why claim the "Democratic-Farm-Labor" party if you're based in Texas?
posted by ckape at 9:56 AM on August 8, 2016 [1 favorite]


It's probably a joke, not fraud. After Deez Nuts there have been a lot of joke filings.
posted by ROU_Xenophobe at 9:57 AM on August 8, 2016 [1 favorite]


MSM, in my world, also stands for men who have sex with men. So, an MSM machine would be bringing all the boys to the yard, as they say.
posted by Sophie1 at 9:58 AM on August 8, 2016 [36 favorites]


Didn't we do this two months ago? I guess this guy is nominally more qualified than David French but I doubt that he's got any better chance.
posted by octothorpe at 9:59 AM on August 8, 2016 [2 favorites]




...is this the new thread?
posted by infinitewindow at 10:00 AM on August 8, 2016 [7 favorites]


Republicans have for years been saying unemployment is understated in the official report because it doesn't count people who have stopped looking for work.

Eight years, in fact. Shockingly, this grave miscarriage of statistical justice started happening the moment a black Democrat was elected president. Prior to that, it was a perfectly cromulent yardstick. (Except for '92-'00, then it was underreporting again.)
posted by Mayor West at 10:01 AM on August 8, 2016 [85 favorites]


Google tells me that there are a lot of companies called "MSM Machine" or some variation. One of those might specialize in making said machine.

MSM = Mainstream Media

Thanks for clearing it up!
posted by VTX at 10:01 AM on August 8, 2016 [3 favorites]


I'm fascinated by the concept of Utah flipping blue, but the thought of it mattering in an electoral sense is pretty comical. Also, it's Libertarian Johnson that's might help flip Utah, not this guy.
posted by mcstayinskool at 10:01 AM on August 8, 2016 [1 favorite]


...is this the new thread?
Oui.
posted by ROU_Xenophobe at 10:01 AM on August 8, 2016


"Let's flip Utah!"

Sounds great. Arizona and Georgia are now floating into toss-up territory, and Virginia is locked down. Taking Utah only makes sense if you can hold AZ and GA. And take PA. And OH. And FL. And hope the 269-269 math works out.

Trying to siphon off Utah is like betting that the Pirates will win the NL Central because they'll sweep the Reds in September while the Cards and Cubs somehow manage to cancel each other out. A team that has a 0.1% chance of winning the division. Good luck with that.
posted by dw at 10:02 AM on August 8, 2016 [1 favorite]


MSM is like "ATM Machine" - adding the word 'machine' is redundant
posted by pointystick at 10:02 AM on August 8, 2016 [5 favorites]


There's not a dime's worth of difference!

Hey hey hey. At least with Johnson I agree with every other thing he says.
posted by Talez at 10:02 AM on August 8, 2016 [5 favorites]


FACT CHECK: Trump said Detroit and Michigan are run at all levels by Democrats. Michigan's Gov is Republican.
Also both chambers of MI state legislature. This is a written speech?


Well, obviously he didn't mean NOW.
posted by waitingtoderail at 10:02 AM on August 8, 2016 [17 favorites]


What did they say to you to get you to sell the GOP down the river?
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 10:04 AM on August 8, 2016 [16 favorites]


Cookiebastard: there are many more fine "third party" and alternative candidates to choose from, including The Antichrist, Dat Ass, Sydneys Voluptuous Buttocks, Eric Cartman, Foot Cheese, Crawfish Crawfish, Ourlordandsaviour Cthulhu, Deez Nuts, Kermit Frog, Mister Grump, Frederickson Asshat Kazoo, Gary Johnson, and Jill Stein.

Don't forget J. R. "Bob" Dobbs, my perennial write-in candidate.

And before anyone complains, I save my write-ins for unopposed candidates that I don't support.
posted by SansPoint at 10:07 AM on August 8, 2016 [22 favorites]


Taking Utah only makes sense if you can hold AZ and GA.

The whole point of taking Utah is that they're sticking a Mormon Republican as their campaigner because they know Utahns will vote for *any* Mormon over Trump. Once you get a vote you throw it to the house, put your stuffed shirt in and either rule the executive branch from the legislature or the VP is the real president they're trying to install.
posted by Talez at 10:07 AM on August 8, 2016 [2 favorites]


This is a written speech?

So, how's the re-re-reboot going?
posted by kirkaracha at 10:07 AM on August 8, 2016 [1 favorite]


This guy is clearly going to be story of the week before disappearing for all time, so I guess we should try and make the thread last us that long.
posted by Artw at 10:08 AM on August 8, 2016 [8 favorites]




If this guy makes it to story of the afternoon I will be fucking amazed.
posted by prize bull octorok at 10:10 AM on August 8, 2016 [21 favorites]


He's like Voldemort with the prophecy, simultaneously trying to prevent his own defeat and inadvertently assuring its inevitability.

Now that you mention it, there are a lot of similarities between Voldemort and Trump. Both:
-may not be part of the class they claim to be
-seem to be quite fine with using racists for their own gain
-want to ban an entire group of people from immigrating into their society
-get into fights with babies and lose

At least Trump does not have horcruxes. I hope.
posted by ultranos at 10:10 AM on August 8, 2016 [125 favorites]


Clinton: 50
Trump: 37


Ouch.

I love it.
posted by soren_lorensen at 10:10 AM on August 8, 2016 [10 favorites]


This guy is clearly going to be story of the week before disappearing for all time, so I guess we should try and make the thread last us that long.

or until trump punches a republican senator's veteran grandmother, whichever comes first
posted by murphy slaw at 10:10 AM on August 8, 2016 [14 favorites]


FWIW, 538 rates them as an "A+" pollster.

He shits the bed at the Battle of Monmouth.
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 10:11 AM on August 8, 2016 [25 favorites]


Republicans have for years been saying unemployment is understated in the official report because it doesn't count people who have stopped looking for work.

Which, of course, ignores the fact that there are multiple measurements of unemployment and some of them do count people who have stopped looking for work.

And those numbers are looking pretty good. Not fantastic, but pretty good.

On the other hand, the President is black.
posted by It's Never Lurgi at 10:11 AM on August 8, 2016 [29 favorites]


Jesus, 13 points?

For reference, Bush Sr.'s epic thrashing of Dukakis was an 8-point spread.

(I know, it's one poll, it's August, but still.)
posted by argybarg at 10:11 AM on August 8, 2016 [4 favorites]


At least with Johnson I agree with every other thing he says.

I feel like I could go rock climbing with him, at least. I could learn to overlook the incessant Grateful Dead, probably.
posted by octobersurprise at 10:12 AM on August 8, 2016 [5 favorites]


At least Trump does not have horcruxes. I hope.

His hairpiece.
posted by Fizz at 10:13 AM on August 8, 2016 [38 favorites]


What did they say to you to get you to sell the GOP down the river?

Did Reince Priebus know about the dinner?
Was there Super-PAC pressure to deliver?
posted by dw at 10:15 AM on August 8, 2016 [18 favorites]


Supposedly there's more DNC email that may be released, right? And the drumbeat about Trump's whole organization's ties to Russia continues to build.

I wonder if part of this guy's appeal, to his backers, is that he's well positioned to make hay of that on all fronts.
posted by snuffleupagus at 10:15 AM on August 8, 2016 [1 favorite]


[TRUMP]
Hillary doesn’t hesitate
She exhibits no restraint
She takes and she takes and she takes
And she keeps winning anyway
She changes the game
She plays and she raises the stakes
And if there’s a reason
She seems to thrive when she always lie, then Goddamnit—
I'm willing to whine about it
posted by dw at 10:18 AM on August 8, 2016 [34 favorites]




The Upshot: Clinton has 1021 ways to win; Trump has 2 ways to win. Mississippi [!] is on the NYT's list of competitive states now.

If Clinton wins Iowa and Trump wins Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Mississippi, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, and Ohio, Clinton wins.
posted by kirkaracha at 10:19 AM on August 8, 2016 [9 favorites]


At least Trump does not have horcruxes. I hope.

Trump would say he had lots of horcruxes. HUGE horcruxes. The BEST horcruxes. But on investigation, we'd find that he'd never actually killed anybody and all the magical artifacts he used were cheap copies.
posted by wabbittwax at 10:20 AM on August 8, 2016 [46 favorites]


These polls with huge Hillary leads aren't necessarily predictive of where the race will be in November. BUT they do put huge pressure on Senate candidates like Toomey, Ayotte, and McCain. Embrace Trump? Cut bait? The longer the polls say +10 Hillary, the more fractured the GOP will get.
posted by (Arsenio) Hall and (Warren) Oates at 10:21 AM on August 8, 2016 [10 favorites]


My SO is traveling through Tennessee, Arkansas, and Texas. I've asked him to report daily because I don't understand the South. He has reported that he has seen a lot of crosses on the side of the interstate, but no Trump signs. I'm disturbing him by suggesting that those crosses will actually be put to practical use at some point in an apocalyptic future. But no Trump signs. Maybe my SO has to go farther away from the interstate to see the Trump.

Really as a non-believer, this cross business is so weird to me. What if Christ died for our sins in some other way, like roiling acid or leeches. Would we have leech art on our wall. Gah.
posted by angrycat at 10:21 AM on August 8, 2016 [16 favorites]


Mississippi [!] is on the NYT's list of competitive states now.

Missouri.
posted by EarBucket at 10:22 AM on August 8, 2016 [1 favorite]


No, I guess they are rating Mississippi as more competitive than Missouri. That seems weird to me.
posted by EarBucket at 10:24 AM on August 8, 2016


So like does he create a new horcrux every time he files for bankruptcy?
posted by guiseroom at 10:25 AM on August 8, 2016 [18 favorites]


So like does he create a new horcrux every time he files for bankruptcy?

God help us all!
posted by wabbittwax at 10:26 AM on August 8, 2016 [5 favorites]


We should be very careful not to get overconfident. I won't be able to not worry until the results are in on November 8. Remember how sure everyone was last year that Trump was a bad joke who would surely disappear any second now? I think Hillary will win but we shouldn't take anything for granted in this crazy election cycle.
posted by Sangermaine at 10:27 AM on August 8, 2016 [88 favorites]


Mississippi has a sizable Hispanic population post-Katrina to go along with its huge African-American population. Missouri doesn't have the same conditions; it's really drifted to the right in the last 20 years.
posted by dw at 10:27 AM on August 8, 2016 [2 favorites]


So like does he create a new horcrux every time he files for bankruptcy?

Mid-season twist: it turns out that all of his IRS filings are, in fact, themselves horcruxes -- the real reason he won't release his tax returns.
posted by cjelli at 10:27 AM on August 8, 2016 [9 favorites]


Oh god, one of Trump's "economic advisors" is saying they project economic growth under Trump's plan over 4% per year. He says that after Reagan's tax cuts, about 10 years later they had a balanced budget. YES BECAUSE THEY RAISED TAXES AGAIN YOU BUFFOON.
posted by Justinian at 10:27 AM on August 8, 2016 [26 favorites]


i dunno how much we can extrapolate from trump's victory in the primaries. he was the only one with any broad name recognition amongst a squabbling field of 17 candidates.
posted by murphy slaw at 10:29 AM on August 8, 2016 [5 favorites]


We should be very careful not to get overconfident. I won't be able to not worry until the results are in on November 8. Remember how sure everyone was last year that Trump was a bad joke who would surely disappear any second now?

Sure, but Trump actually led in the polls and everyone expected the poll numbers to change. They didn't. The current situation isn't really the same thing.
posted by LionIndex at 10:29 AM on August 8, 2016 [9 favorites]


Which, of course, ignores the fact that there are multiple measurements of unemployment and some of them do count people who have stopped looking for work.

Here's a chart explaining the different measures of unemployment, which have all been changing in about the same way. You can link this 100 times in a thread about how the government lies about unemployment numbers and it won't do any good at all, but there it is.
posted by Huck500 at 10:29 AM on August 8, 2016 [26 favorites]


No, I guess they are rating Mississippi as more competitive than Missouri. That seems weird to me.

Mississippi has the largest proportion of African-American people (37% as of 2010) in the country. Since Clinton will likely win most of those voters, even a small percentage of white people voting for her could make the state much closer than it has been recently.
posted by Excommunicated Cardinal at 10:30 AM on August 8, 2016 [18 favorites]


he was the only one with any broad name recognition amongst a squabbling field of 17 candidates.

I don't know, I think the named "Bush" probably rang a few bells here and there, as well.
posted by infinitywaltz at 10:30 AM on August 8, 2016 [15 favorites]


Maybe my SO has to go farther away from the interstate to see the Trump.

I live in Alabama and I have seen very few Trump signs or bumper stickers, and I'm in a suburb of Birmingham that's 75% white. I've found that very interesting. Also, the story I saw about the Clinton ad that is Trump on the Letterman show said it's being pushed in battleground states, but I'm seeing it all the time in Birmingham. Either they went with a national buy, or Alabama is more in play than I would expect.

No, I guess they are rating Mississippi as more competitive than Missouri. That seems weird to me.

Mississippi has the largest proportion of black voters in the nation, I believe. Plus, the media costs would be much cheaper than Missouri. Frankly, I would really love to see recent polling from more deep south states.
posted by ndfine at 10:31 AM on August 8, 2016 [2 favorites]


or until trump punches a republican senator's veteran grandmother, whichever comes first

After which, CNN will spend the afternoon talking about how many grandmothers older than 90 died in New York while Hillary was a senator.
posted by Celsius1414 at 10:31 AM on August 8, 2016 [14 favorites]


I remember when Trump was a bad joke. Hell, I don't remember a time when we wasn't a bad joke. He wasn't even a joke. For almost my entire life, he has been a punchline. No setup. Just a punchline. And it stopped being funny a long time ago.
posted by wabbittwax at 10:33 AM on August 8, 2016 [21 favorites]


Did we ever get to Steve? I think I fell asleep in the backseat and Cortex carried me inside and tucked me in my own bed.
posted by rikschell at 10:34 AM on August 8, 2016 [36 favorites]


i dunno how much we can extrapolate from trump's victory in the primaries. he was the only one with any broad name recognition amongst a squabbling field of 17 candidates.
murphy slaw

I'm not sure if you meant it that way, but this is exactly the line I've been hearing from my conservative friends/conservatives online: Trump doesn't represent Republicans and his rise says absolutely nothing about the party, he's just some freak accident of celebrity.

It's a form of denial among Republicans to avoid having to confront the possibility that their policies or views just maybe led to Trump and his racist xenophobic nationalism.
posted by Sangermaine at 10:36 AM on August 8, 2016 [34 favorites]


I can't find the tweet anymore, but something to the effect of "What if Donald Trump's election is why we've never seen any time travelers from the future?" literally kept me awake last night.

omg could "Donald Trump" be the answer to Fermi's paradox?
posted by indubitable at 10:37 AM on August 8, 2016 [10 favorites]


So is there any meaningful difference between this guy and this guy?* Or are we just in a world where reality no longer has any coherent meaning, and so some guy who should probably be running for President of his freshman class seems as credible a candidate as anyone else?

Seriously, people run weirdo campaigns for President literally all the time. They don't have a snowball's chance in hell of winning. They don't get on the ballot. They're just goofball campaigns meant to feed someone's delusions. What is different about this guy? I don't see anything. Thinking he's going to become the standard bearer for pissed off Mormons and giving Clinton Utah sounds about as likely as Lyndon LaRouche claiming (as he did) that the Democratic Party would nominate him by acclamation in 1980 because they knew Jimmy Carter stood no chance against Reagan.

* I mean either one would be preferable to Trump, obviously.
posted by Naberius at 10:38 AM on August 8, 2016 [3 favorites]


I think this is a really weak story use as a framework for this week's election thread - he's not even going to be able to get on the ballot in many places and there's little evidence of substantial organization or fundraising to indicate that this is a serious bid
posted by the_querulous_night at 10:38 AM on August 8, 2016 [10 favorites]


It was a fucking awful field of candidates, but they sure did drop out in order of inverse awfulness, so make no mistake: Republucans select for that shit.
posted by Artw at 10:38 AM on August 8, 2016 [16 favorites]


This is silly. For one thing, it's too late to get on the ballot in a lot of states. Perot, for instance, began his effort back in February in 1992.
posted by ph00dz at 10:38 AM on August 8, 2016


I just moved 20 miles north of Seattle a couple of weeks ago and am seeing my first Trump billboards and bumper stickers and whatnot in person. Not a huge amount, but they're noticeable, like the enormous TRUMP billboard a quarter mile down the road from my new place, or the truck parked in the spot next to mine the other morning with TRUMP NATION and HILLARY FOR PRISON painted on the back window (and LET'S GET WEIRD on the driver's side extended cab window).
posted by palomar at 10:40 AM on August 8, 2016 [1 favorite]


What is different about this guy? I don't see anything. Thinking he's going to become the standard bearer for pissed off Mormons and giving Clinton Utah sounds about as likely as Lyndon LaRouche claiming (as he did) that the Democratic Party would nominate him by acclamation in 1980 because they knew Jimmy Carter stood no chance against Reagan.

The various StopTrump PACs have real money.
posted by corb at 10:44 AM on August 8, 2016 [4 favorites]


Shortest election thread ever.
posted by mazola at 10:44 AM on August 8, 2016 [1 favorite]


So is there any meaningful difference between this guy and this guy?

One of them has a hedge fund manager behind them.
posted by a lungful of dragon at 10:44 AM on August 8, 2016


stop saying hamilton lines
posted by Greg Nog at 10:45 AM on August 8, 2016 [18 favorites]


Really as a non-believer, this cross business is so weird to me. What if Christ died for our sins in some other way, like roiling acid or leeches. Would we have leech art on our wall. Gah.

If he had been executed by electric chair or lethal injection the market for tasers and hypodermic syringes would probably be quite interesting.
posted by Bringer Tom at 10:45 AM on August 8, 2016 [2 favorites]


Republucans

That's a great typo.
posted by a lungful of dragon at 10:45 AM on August 8, 2016 [1 favorite]


I just moved 20 miles north of Seattle a couple of weeks ago and am seeing my first Trump billboards and bumper stickers and whatnot in person.

I drove from Seattle to Vancouver a couple weeks ago and the Trump signs were surprisingly thick once you got north of Marysville. Another reminder that while Seattle is a very left-wing town, the libertarian right owns the drives to Portland and Vancouver.
posted by dw at 10:45 AM on August 8, 2016 [12 favorites]


I see the occasional Make America Great Again hat or sticker, always on angry old white men or their trucks, but not as many as I was expecting by this point in the year, in Texas. Meanwhile, when I hear anyone talk about the election around me they mostly say "Trump, ugh, no, so awful."

I told my husband that although I still can't relax till November, shared horror over Trump has made me feel closer to my Republican fellow citizens than I have in a very long time. It's almost heartwarming, in a really disconcerting way.
posted by emjaybee at 10:45 AM on August 8, 2016 [33 favorites]


Palomar - try driving down through Aberdeen.

Though weirdly though I saw a lot of TRUMP and HILARY FOR PRISON around there, there wasn't a sign of PENCE, so maybe it's all pre-convention?
posted by Artw at 10:46 AM on August 8, 2016 [2 favorites]


> The further along this gets the more it seems like Donald Trump is from a future in which Hillary Clinton wins the presidency by an unprecedented landslide and he has gone back in time believing that he alone can stop this from happening. But everything he does makes that future more likely. He's like Voldemort with the prophecy, simultaneously trying to prevent his own defeat and inadvertently assuring its inevitability.

Okay but alternately what if he's from the future where Ted Cruz became president? What if he escaped from the grimdark gulags where Cruz's many enemies are forced to perform scenes from Princess Bride over and over again in one great horde, like a North Korean mass dance but with more ambidextrous swashbuckling? What if he somehow knew that the only way to prevent America and the world from being driven to the pain forever was to travel back in time and spend decades debasing himself just enough to appeal to the Republican Party primary voters of 2016 and then throw the election to Clinton?

What then, huh?
posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 10:47 AM on August 8, 2016 [63 favorites]


Evan McMullin is like the knuckleheads that tried to overthrow Erdogan in Turkey. Too little and way too late.
posted by JJ86 at 10:48 AM on August 8, 2016 [1 favorite]


Really as a non-believer, this cross business is so weird to me. What if Christ died for our sins in some other way, like roiling acid or leeches. Would we have leech art on our wall. Gah.

This is why Mithraism never really took off, it's hard to make a blood-gunked grated pit iconic. What did Christ understand that lesser saviors didn't? That's right, branding
posted by prize bull octorok at 10:48 AM on August 8, 2016 [57 favorites]


Wow, Kaine spending time in Texas is a major deal. It suggests that the Clinton campaign has internal polling for Texas (because IIRC Texas is almost never polled) that suggests that even if flipping the state is very difficult that they could force Trump (who is incredibly thin on the ground) to play defense.

The fact that the Clinton campaign is not just locking down their Blue Wall but also creating a backup New South strategy is a big deal and one that could have deep ramifications not just for the presidency but on down ballot races.
posted by vuron at 10:49 AM on August 8, 2016 [100 favorites]


Regarding Trump's 'rigged election' narrative: What Sean Hannity got wrong about Philly election fraud
Fox News host Sean Hannity won’t let go of the number 59. In 2012, there were 59 divisions in Philadelphia where not a single vote for Mitt Romney was registered in the general election. After CNN’s Brian Stelter slammed him and Bill O’Reilly for not questioning Donald Trump’s predictions that the election will be rigged, Hannity responded to Stelter on Twitter Sunday: “Hey Brian check Philly enquirer (sic) after 2012. How many districts not a single Romney vote. Check Cleveland. Do u prep?”
...
The 59 divisions may appear remarkable if you think of them as “districts,” what Hannity calls them. Divisions, rather, are subzones of wards; the city has 1,686 divisions in all. Godfrey notes that his division encompasses eight square blocks.
...
The divisions that went purely Obama were primarily in overwhelmingly black sections of West and North Philadelphia. The Philadelphia Inquirer visited divisions in question and sought out the small number of registered Republicans. Several had moved or told the paper they didn’t realize they were still in the party.
...
Urban precincts where no one votes for a Republican presidential candidate are not unusual. Five divisions saw zero votes for Bush in 2004. That Obama claimed more divisions than Kerry did has been attributed to his place in history as the first black president. In 2008, there were 57 divisions where no one voted for McCain.
As a Philadelphian, the total lack of fact-checking on the incredibly basic level of failing to ask what a 'voting division' actually is has been quietly infuriating, even leaving aside everything else about this non-story.
posted by cjelli at 10:50 AM on August 8, 2016 [62 favorites]




Really as a non-believer, this cross business is so weird to me. What if Christ died for our sins in some other way, like roiling acid or leeches. Would we have leech art on our wall. Gah.

I read an alt-history story in which Jesus had been only a minor player in the story of John the Baptist. The followers of the ensuing religion, known as Baptists, wore small silver pins in the shape of their holy symbol: a severed head on a platter.
posted by Faint of Butt at 10:52 AM on August 8, 2016 [19 favorites]


Evan has inspired me to run my own campaign. My slogan is "A white guy!" and it's me giving a thumbs up holding a sign that says "jobs!"

I've already been endorsed by Newt Gingrich and a parody twitter account for Gerry Gergich.

Also pony request: Seattle people, now that I'm moved away you have to drive down Nickerson steet and tell me what the new "Wake up, America!" sign (across the street from the house boats) says because good gravy I miss Seattle. Surely some biting commentary about the state of American Sheeple.
posted by Tevin at 10:52 AM on August 8, 2016 [12 favorites]


I love that the 2016 Republican Party is so dysfunctional that it's both the only place where affirmative action actually does mean that massively unqualified candidates for a job are given unfair advantages because of their gender or ethnicity, and, assuming some idiot billionaire blows a couple hundred million dollars on McMullin's laughable campaign, a rare actual example of trickle-down economics.
posted by Copronymus at 10:54 AM on August 8, 2016 [22 favorites]


Wow, Kaine spending time in Texas is a major deal. It suggests that the Clinton campaign has internal polling for Texas (because IIRC Texas is almost never polled) that suggests that even if flipping the state is very difficult that they could force Trump (who is incredibly thin on the ground) to play defense.

Regarding campaigning in Texas, she said this in an article published at the end of May
I asked her whether the time she was spending in Kentucky, a red state, reflected more than her desire to win the primary there the following week (which she did, by a hair). Her eyes lit up; it’s as if she’d been waiting for someone to ask her about the surprising possibilities of the electoral map this year. So which states do you think Trump puts in play? I asked, mentioning the possibility of Georgia, which some think could go Democratic for the first time since her husband won it in 1992.

“Texas!” she exclaimed, eyes wide, as if daring me to question this, which I did. “You are not going to win Texas,” I said. She smiled, undaunted. “If black and Latino voters come out and vote, we could win Texas,” she told me firmly, practically licking her lips.
She definitely thinks Texas is on the cards as a stretch goal.
posted by Francis at 10:55 AM on August 8, 2016 [87 favorites]


Republucans

That's a great typo.


I'm surprised that nobody's coined #Blutah in this thread yet, but I'll happily take the credit.
posted by Strange Interlude at 10:56 AM on August 8, 2016 [6 favorites]


Godfrey's tweetstorm on the vote fraud claims makes the simple-yet-devastating point that you'd have to be a moron to falsify a unanimous vote for any candidate because then anyone who voted for the loser would know beyond a shadow of a doubt that their ballot wasn't counted. And yet nobody spoke up in any of those divisions.
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 10:56 AM on August 8, 2016 [60 favorites]


On the one hand, a 13-point defeat sounds like it would be the firm repudiation that we need to finally drive a stake into the heart of white supremacy as a central tenet of a major political party.

On the other hand, Mondale took an 18-point, 500+ EV thrashing in '88, and it wasn't enough to destroy the Democratic party, so...
posted by Mayor West at 10:56 AM on August 8, 2016 [2 favorites]


Living in Massachusetts, just about the only Trump sign I saw thus far was actually a giant flag, on a bicycle rode by a white guy down Rt 1. The fact that he had one of those child trailer type attachments (presumably with a child inside) and was driving what seemed like a dangerously unstable bike/flagpole combination down a major road on which bikes enter at their own peril seemed like a cogent commentary on the nature of Trump's supporters.
posted by tocts at 10:57 AM on August 8, 2016 [16 favorites]


Evan has inspired me to run my own campaign. My slogan is "A white guy!" and it's me giving a thumbs up holding a sign that says "jobs!"

It's really not about that. It's about giving Republican voters someone to vote for that's not Trump, where they don't feel like they are betraying everything they believe in by voting Clinton. Even if the ultimate upshot is Clinton gets elected. That distance may seem silly, but it's important.
posted by corb at 10:57 AM on August 8, 2016 [27 favorites]


Also pony request: Seattle people, now that I'm moved away you have to drive down Nickerson steet and tell me what the new "Wake up, America!" sign (across the street from the house boats) says because good gravy I miss Seattle. Surely some biting commentary about the state of American Sheeple.

That sign has been consistently pro-left-socialism in the eight or so years I've been here.
posted by a lungful of dragon at 10:57 AM on August 8, 2016 [3 favorites]


Driving through Detroit the other day, I saw an ad for (warning: strip club website) Trumpps Detroit, a strip club that's apparently been around since 1989. That name, with the extra 'p' and lack of apostrophe, was transparently a deliberate choice to glom onto a certain Trumpy tacky luxury aesthetic, but I'll bet their ruing their homophonous pairing these days.
posted by palindromic at 10:57 AM on August 8, 2016 [2 favorites]


Really as a non-believer, this cross business is so weird to me. What if Christ died for our sins in some other way, like roiling acid or leeches. Would we have leech art on our wall. Gah.

They could all be followers of some Odin cult and their symbol be blood eagles, so we got off kind of easy.
posted by maxsparber at 10:59 AM on August 8, 2016 [1 favorite]


Trumpps Detroit

Drop the initial T and you've actually increased the classiness of your strip club's name.
posted by Faint of Butt at 11:00 AM on August 8, 2016 [27 favorites]


Good faith question, posed to a group of people with collectively way more electoral knowledge than me: why does it seem to be generally assumed that politicians' internal polls are more accurate or more believable than widely-available external polling data? And if they in fact are, why don't external polling agencies learn whatever internal polling is doing and ... do the same thing?
posted by penduluum at 11:01 AM on August 8, 2016 [12 favorites]


DynamiteToast - I fell down a hell-hole of #HillarysHealth on Twitter last night and I could not for the life of me figure out where the stairs photo came from. Thanks for the Weigel article. It was certainly enlightening because all I could gather from the tweets I was reading is that Hillary has Parkinson's or something to that effect and therefore is dangerous.
posted by Sophie1 at 11:02 AM on August 8, 2016


On the other hand, Mondale took an 18-point, 500+ EV thrashing in '88, and it wasn't enough to destroy the Democratic party, so...

On the other hand compare Mondale's policy platform to Clinton's in '92. It was a vast swing.
posted by Francis at 11:02 AM on August 8, 2016 [17 favorites]


On the other hand, Mondale took an 18-point, 500+ EV thrashing in '88, and it wasn't enough to destroy the Democratic party, so...

1984. And arguably, it did. It led to a shift to the right over the next 8 years culminating in "neo-liberal" Bill Clinton getting elected president. It also led to the superdelegates coming to the fore to help keep the far left from trying to hijack the election (as it was argued they did in '80 and '84 with Ted Kennedy and Gary Hart even though they weren't exactly "leftists" in the way Sanders is).

2016 has been about the re-awakening of the left wing of the Democratic party. We'll see what happens as the left and center of the Democrats learn to work together again.
posted by dw at 11:04 AM on August 8, 2016 [28 favorites]


It's really not about that. It's about giving Republican voters someone to vote for that's not Trump, where they don't feel like they are betraying everything they believe in by voting Clinton. Even if the ultimate upshot is Clinton gets elected. That distance may seem silly, but it's important.

It also sets the stage for a battle for the soul of the GOP that would be based on some sort of empirical numbers, rather than trying to divine who voted for Clinton with their noses held.

to repeat myself from the other thread, the most interesting part to me is the effect it could have on downticket races if his candidacy actually became a thing. Would it get more Republicans to the polls who would otherwise stay home rather than vote for Trump or Clinton? Or would it enrage the Trump base to see GOP elites trying to stop their candidate, and cost the Republicans their votes for legislatures, governor, etc?
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 11:05 AM on August 8, 2016 [2 favorites]


Suburban Mass. - There's a road I drive on maybe once every 4-6 weeks or so, and a homeowner abutting this road erected an oversized TRUMP sign several months ago, two-sided and oriented facing traffic. Each time I've driven down the road, The Sign has alternated between being clearly vandalized and being replaced by a New, Larger Sign, higher and higher off the ground. The last time I went through that neighborhood, The Sign was 20 feet or so off the ground, bolted to a tree, and had a little sign underneath that said "Smile! You're on camera!".
posted by the painkiller at 11:05 AM on August 8, 2016 [14 favorites]


And yet nobody spoke up in any of those divisions.

FOX News pundits yakyak a lot about (fake) election fraud, but it's too bad they lack the imagination to scale up and consider, say, the effects of Putin's crew hacking our election machines.
posted by a lungful of dragon at 11:08 AM on August 8, 2016 [2 favorites]


More good news for Donald Trump!

Florida Republican Party spokesman quitting because of Trump

posted by murphy slaw at 11:10 AM on August 8, 2016 [5 favorites]


It’s not just that Donald Trump needs to pivot – it’s that he needs to pivot away from being what’s made him Donald Trump. That means traditional-candidate Trump, maybe even boring-candidate Trump, reading from notes or TelePrompTers, and staying away from interviews and Twitter for a while.
...
Remember, with Trump, dominating news cycles is not his problem. It’s dominating them with a message his party can rally behind that has proved vexing.
posted by kirkaracha at 11:11 AM on August 8, 2016 [1 favorite]


why does it seem to be generally assumed that politicians' internal polls are more accurate or more believable than widely-available external polling data?

I believe it is because campaigns pay lots of money for their internal polls, which can get them better data. There is probably much less profit in public polling.
posted by snofoam at 11:11 AM on August 8, 2016 [9 favorites]


FOX News pundits yakyak a lot about (fake) election fraud, but it's too bad they lack the imagination to scale up and consider, say, the effects of Putin's crew hacking our election machines.


Putin's hackers probably lack the expertise to target black voters so it's a non-issue.
posted by murphy slaw at 11:11 AM on August 8, 2016 [1 favorite]


Around the corner from my house, there is a truck my wife and I call the Fail Truck because it sports bumper stickers of unsuccessful Republican candidates. It started this campaign season with a Ben Carson sticker that was clearly printed from an Avery label kit, to a smaller Cruz sticker, and now more recently a ginormous new, professional Ben Carson sticker the size of a dinner plate that the truck owner must have got at a deep discount.
posted by robocop is bleeding at 11:12 AM on August 8, 2016 [11 favorites]


Brian Beutler: Donald Trump is now running Mitt Romney’s campaign plus racism
By advancing a supply-side tax reform that would allow him to bequeath his estate to his children tax free, Trump has surrendered his claim to populism populism, and left himself vulnerable to criticism from Hillary Clinton, who proposes a more genuinely populist tax increase on rich people. To head off those attacks, Trump could have promised to tax the wealthy in other, comparable ways, or propose income support measures for the poor and working class. But those ideas offend GOP leaders like Ryan, so instead of seeking policy balance, he decided to lie about Hillary Clinton’s tax plan instead, and claim that she pledged to raise middle-class taxes.

This never happened, not even in a slip-of-the-tongue kind of way. Clinton specifically promises not to raise taxes on the middle class. But pretending otherwise is the only way Trump can neutralize the weaknesses his new tax policy creates. As a rhetorical gambit this closely resembles the way Republicans distorted and decontextualized President Obama’s words four years ago, to make him seem hostile to business owners, and blunt Democratic criticism of Mitt Romney’s regressive economic policies.
posted by zombieflanders at 11:13 AM on August 8, 2016 [19 favorites]


@ryanstruyk: "Whites in new Monmouth poll:

Men w/o degree: Trump +31
Women w/o degree: Trump +17
Men w/ degree: Trump +11
Women w/ degree: Clinton +30"

I think that this is one of the big stories of this election season. UT and GA even being in question is emblematic of it. Republican presidential efforts hinge on dominating the white vote. trump, for a number of reasons, cannot do that. I don't think that even McMullin really believes he has a snowball's chance at the presidency, but I'm hoping that all of this fracturing in the Republican electorate might point to a massive shift of the Overton window. Bush's victories, the obstructionist tea party, and trump's bald appeal to white nationalism have thrown us so far out of whack that even modest governance from the legislative branch is impossible.

I think, in large part, that's because safe gerrymandered districts mean that many House and Senate seats are officially won in the primary, with whatever right leaning candidate that can be crazy enough to win on GOTV ultimately taking the prize. Then, once in office, moderates have no incentive to bargain and work with Dems, because they cannot give their far right challengers any ammo, and they have no incentive to try and win the general.

I'm praying (such as I pray, anyway) for a Democratic sweep this year for two reasons: one, is that with significant Dem influence on the rules of elections, we might finally get electoral reform that make gerrymandering obsolete; and two, the prospect of the Republican party becoming a rump party made up of a dwindling number of white nationalist voters, and some other party taking up fiscally conservative, socially liberal politics. I will never in a million years vote right wing, but not having to worry about a number of basic civil rights every time I cast a ballot would make me more open to voting further left than the Democratic party, and in general would lead us towards bi-partisan efforts for things like drug legalization, immigration reform, and securing reproductive rights.

Every major Republican loss (and Utah would be a shattering one) brings that closer to reality.
posted by codacorolla at 11:14 AM on August 8, 2016 [28 favorites]


Guys, guys, I just realized that, based on Etrigan's comment in the previous Megathread, it is not entirely impossible that McMullin entering the race could lead to the following outcome, if no candidate gets 270 votes and the House ends up deadlocked:

Joe Biden could be acting president of the United States.
Forever.
posted by Hairy Lobster at 11:14 AM on August 8, 2016 [48 favorites]


I'm a devout Washington Nationals fan. If I'm not at the game, I'm usually watching it on TV.

The most common camera angle is behind the pitcher, facing the batter, so you can watch the entire at-bat, right?

The problem is that you see the people in the first row. And one of the guys in the front row behind home plate at home games wears a "Make America Great Again" hat.

Every.

Goddamned.

Night.

I don't know why that's relevant. I guess it isn't.

I just needed to get that out.
posted by Thistledown at 11:15 AM on August 8, 2016 [17 favorites]


In our neighborhood, the Fail Truck is the jacked-up Chevy Silverado with the (I shit you not) eight-foot Confederate Battle Flag flying from the roll bars.

That it has begun sporting a Trump 2016 sticker has come as a surprise to no one.
posted by Mooski at 11:15 AM on August 8, 2016 [7 favorites]


I think the Texas strategy is bold but is also built around some solid foundations.

1)The Demographics of the state are changing dramatically. Counties that were red even 4 years ago could conceivably shift towards the Democrats.
2)Urbanization of the population is resulting in massive concentrations of voters in the Texas Triangle of Houston-DFW-San Antonio/Austin. These locations are increasingly becoming much more tolerant due to widespread exposure to people outside of your demographic background. While segmentation in suburbs is still very present it's a tangible factor.
3)The Trump effect is very much present in Texas. While there are plenty of angry white guys (seriously guys can you import some of ours to your neck of the woods) there are heaps of minority voters that are going "WTF!" and while it's largely anecdotes I'm getting a very clear picture that minority groups (African-Americans, Latinos, LGBTQ, etc) are not just deeply aware of the potential ramifications of this election but also have an increased desire to participate in the process.
4)In contrast outside of a small group of very vocal supporters I know virtually no Republicans that are excited about Trump. While many or even most will still loyally vote Republican in November the enthuisasm gap is tangible.
5)Court decisions regarding Texas's Voter ID rules are quite likely to result in less disenfranchisement of voters which is a very good thing for both Voter rights and Clinton.
6)The possibility of shedding the "OF course it's Texas!" jokes would be sweet.

I wouldn't put in massive sums of money or personnel but the idea that it could even be competitive could definitely influence some House Races.
posted by vuron at 11:15 AM on August 8, 2016 [23 favorites]



Around the corner from my house, there is a truck my wife and I call the Fail Truck because it sports bumper stickers of unsuccessful Republican candidates.


Mrs. Ocschwar's first car had a number sticker for a Libertarian, because in the days before wireless unlocking, a rare number sticker made it easier to find the car in a large parking lot.
posted by ocschwar at 11:16 AM on August 8, 2016 [3 favorites]


I'm convinced Donald Trump doesn't really want to be president. He knows it would be hard work and no fun at all. So he keeps saying more and more horrible things but the GOP voters just won't react.
posted by Bee'sWing at 11:17 AM on August 8, 2016 [1 favorite]


I'm convinced Donald Trump doesn't really want to be president. He knows it would be hard work and no fun at all.

Well, I think he's finding out that it would be hard work and no fun at all, but my money's on him not having given much thought to it at all beyond Being In Charge.

He can do Being In Charge - he's been doing that his whole life, right?
posted by Mooski at 11:20 AM on August 8, 2016 [11 favorites]


We should be very careful not to get overconfident. I won't be able to not worry until the results are in on November 8.

I'm totally with you on this and have said so in every thread. But now I'm trying to put a more positive spin on it for my own mental health.

It's not so much that everyone needs to keep their heads in the game to prevent any chance of Trump winning. While I firmly believe that any chance of him winning is too high, it's not really about that. He is such a terrible candidate that there is a real possibility now of a landslide victory for Hillary that can trickle down to senate, house, and state races.

We need to keep our game faces on so that we can capitalize on that opportunity and create the largest landslide possible.
posted by VTX at 11:21 AM on August 8, 2016 [29 favorites]


Living in Massachusetts, just about the only Trump sign I saw thus far was actually a giant flag, on a bicycle rode by a white guy down Rt 1.

Come visit me in Middlesex County and I will show you a TON of Trump signs. I live in Scott Brown Country (even though he doesn't/didn't live here). One Trumper even verbally accosted my wife and daughter at the gas pumps of our town's Cumberland Farms because we had the temerity to have a Bernie bumper sticker.
posted by briank at 11:22 AM on August 8, 2016 [2 favorites]


Driving through Detroit the other day, I saw an ad for (warning: strip club website) Trumpps Detroit, a strip club that's apparently been around since 1989. That name, with the extra 'p' and lack of apostrophe, was transparently a deliberate choice to glom onto a certain Trumpy tacky luxury aesthetic, but I'll bet their ruing their homophonous pairing these days.

It sounds like Trump's a fan, though!
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 11:22 AM on August 8, 2016


There’s No Such Thing As A Protest Vote:
A. I prefer Donald Trump be President, rather than Hillary Clinton.
B. I prefer Hillary Clinton be President, rather than Donald Trump.
C. Whatever everybody else decides is OK with me.

That’s it. Those are the choices. All strategies other than a preference for Trump over Clinton or vice-versa reduce to Option C.

posted by roomthreeseventeen at 11:22 AM on August 8, 2016 [102 favorites]


You know, I know a lot of people are kind of cheering about the fracturing of the GOP, but I've actually been thinking, and if even you're a solid Democrat, that's not as good a thing as you might think it is. Let's say 15% - and I'm trying to be conservative - ultimately feel they need to find a new party because the GOP has decided to embrace being the Party of Trump. That's 15% of people who work, generally, really hard, do a lot of volunteering, are active and thinking about politics.

I would lay hard money that the influx of that many people into the Democratic Party would actually pull it back towards the right, not the left. And the Dems would have no reason not to do so - a 65% win sounds way better than a maybe 51% win, every time! It's a real danger - just like it would be if this were a different election, and all the Bernie folks voted R. Large sudden influxes change the parties they migrate to. It's something I've been thinking a lot about, in how to morally switch my party registration - like is it even fair of me to switch to another party (I'm going to, but which one) where my switch could have an outsize impact, given that I volunteer and show up and lobby and all that stuff?
posted by corb at 11:24 AM on August 8, 2016 [35 favorites]


I'm convinced Donald Trump doesn't really want to be president. He knows it would be hard work and no fun at all.

Well, I think he's finding out that it would be hard work and no fun at all, but my money's on him not having given much thought to it at all beyond Being In Charge.


He already said he'd turn everything over to Pence to do the real work. A Trump presidency would be 10% him giving insane media interviews, 5-10% signing ceremonies for whatever ratfuckery came out of the Republican controlled Congress, 5-10% him swooping in to overrule random decisions that Pence had been working on for months, and 70-80% dick waving at China, Iran and Russia/threatening to nuke random countries both allies and adversaries.
posted by T.D. Strange at 11:24 AM on August 8, 2016 [10 favorites]


I see Fail Trucks all the fucking time generally with some combination of the following:

Trump Bumper Sticker
Stupid Come and Take it Snake
Cannon and or AR-15 with the come and take it BS
Confederate Battleflag shit
Pro-Life stickers
BIG ASS EXHAUST PIPE
Metal ballsack hanging from the back bumper.

Let me tell you when those guys decide to be mega-dicks and decide to roll coal with their diesels it definitely get me going "Hrmm you know that guy is so alpha he convinced me to vote for Trump!"

I kind of want to go back to the Calvin peeing on stuff days
posted by vuron at 11:25 AM on August 8, 2016 [15 favorites]


Mississippi has the largest proportion of African-American people (37% as of 2010) in the country.

Doesn't it also have voter suppression laws put into place to mitigate this? Or have they been struck down?
posted by acb at 11:26 AM on August 8, 2016 [1 favorite]


I drove through rural western Pennsylvania this weekend (along US 30 between Breezewood and Greensburg) and there were a TON of Trump signs. They were the first ones I've seen in the wild, in fact -- not surprising, given that I live in the MD suburbs of DC.

As for Texas, I saw a number of my Texas relatives this weekend also (we were all in PA for a family reunion). All are very conservative, all are deeply pious Catholics, and none of them want to vote for Trump. They won't vote for Hillary, of course -- the level of hate they have for her is almost pathological, but whatever. The sense I got is that several of them may simply skip voting for President.
posted by devinemissk at 11:26 AM on August 8, 2016


Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish: I worked as a Machine Inspector for the City of Philadelphia for several elections, and I can confirm every word he says. Voter fraud does not happen at the polling place level. Voting machines, at least in Philadelphia, do not work that way.

And one thing he missed is that we tape the printouts from the machines to the door of the polling place as well, so anyone can see each individual machine's results.
posted by SansPoint at 11:26 AM on August 8, 2016 [2 favorites]


So I'm in Beautiful Downtown Burbank, home of Johnny Carson, Disney Studios, The Ellen Show, Warner Brothers, Nickelodeon and every post-production shop and prop-house you've never heard of. Almost everyone in my neighborhood is in "the industry" in one form or another. That's not to say there are no Republicans, but they tend to be socially left-leaning folks.

There is a guy at the end of my block who has about 20 radio antennae atop his house. He has always had a security camera. Every Christmas, he sets up 3 inflatable Santas, one of whom is wearing a sombrero and shaking maracas. At some point this winter, he put up a handmade Trump for President sign. At the first rain, it bled and crumpled. Currently the house is sporting a black and gold hand made (with sticker lettering) sign that I believe is covered in Saran Wrap for weatherproofing. It is the only Trump sign I have seen and I see it every damn day.

I really have got to order that Hillary yard sign.
posted by Sophie1 at 11:27 AM on August 8, 2016 [14 favorites]


why does it seem to be generally assumed that politicians' internal polls are more accurate or more believable than widely-available external polling data? And if they in fact are, why don't external polling agencies learn whatever internal polling is doing and ... do the same thing?

It's partly because the number of public polls varies between states, and, the farther out from the election we are, the greater the chance that no one has actually released a recent public poll for a given state. Internal polling is, presumably, going to be more accurate than an absence of polling.

Think about it this way: the sampling rate varies between states, and varies within states over time. In non-competitive states, there might not be very much polling at all. Campaigns, which might want to flip states, are incentivized to poll more states more often and more aggressively, and are willing to spend money to find out whether or not that's possible. From that perspective, it's not that a given internal poll is necessarily more or less than a public one, it's that internal polling is more likely to actually happen and more likely to be recent, in many (but not all) cases. The closer to November 8th we get, the less and less true that will become.
posted by cjelli at 11:28 AM on August 8, 2016 [5 favorites]


Usually I see fail trucks tailgating me at 95mph on the interstate. I like to take just slightly too long to let them pass, and then enjoy knowing that they're getting like 6 miles to the gallon redlining their stupid dualie truck down the highway.
posted by T.D. Strange at 11:28 AM on August 8, 2016 [5 favorites]


I'm not sure this cycle fits the conventional wisdom criteria for the idea that positive polls can cause people to decide not to vote. I think that concern is oriented around elections where motivating a disinterested base is key, such as 2000 or 2004, but in this case, things are different. This year, people are often personally motivated in profound and varied ways. One of the reasons the DNC was so effective is because it highlighted this so well. This isn't reason to slack off and back down on the GOTV effort or volunteering or donations, but maybe a note of confidence can appear. Run up the score, you never know what might happen.
posted by feloniousmonk at 11:29 AM on August 8, 2016 [1 favorite]


I drove through rural western Pennsylvania this weekend (along US 30 between Breezewood and Greensburg) and there were a TON of Trump signs. They were the first ones I've seen in the wild, in fact -- not surprising, given that I live in the MD suburbs of DC.

This is why I seldom leave the city of Pittsburgh. Twenty miles out of town and you hit Hooterville.
posted by octothorpe at 11:30 AM on August 8, 2016 [3 favorites]


I believe it is because campaigns pay lots of money for their internal polls, which can get them better data. There is probably much less profit in public polling.

Thanks for answering, and again this is entirely in good faith, but: is the mechanism by which more money gets better data known? Hiring more talented pollsters, buying better lists of people to contact? It just seems like a profession where it would be very hard to throw enough money at the problem to ensure advantage. The systems in play are well-known enough to be able to duplicate them, I would think, at less expense. The only thing I can definitely see money doing for you is buying the confidentiality of your employees and contractors, which is very important but doesn't help your polling data. And the information asymmetry seems like it would create a situation where those same employees and contractors would be able to extract a huge amount of money from you without really being able to show any repeatable, provable results.

It's entirely possible I'm missing something. But if I were a candidate, and an independent poll (which I was able to estimate the reliability of, with ratings from other independent agents, at A+) had me at let's say -5, and my own internal poll (which I'm paying large amounts of money for [which I would think would distort reliability] and which I cannot estimate the reliability of [because it's a trade secret]) says I'm +5 ... I can't think of a reason I wouldn't trust the independent poll more. Perhaps of course that's exactly what they're doing; perhaps the value of internal polling isn't that they're more reliable, but just that they're more data points in general, or more specific data, and more data leads to a clearer picture overall.
posted by penduluum at 11:30 AM on August 8, 2016


...dick waving at China, Iran and Russia/threatening to nuke random countries both allies and adversaries

SHHHHHH!! ... that plan is supposed to be a SECRET!
posted by wabbittwax at 11:30 AM on August 8, 2016 [6 favorites]


I remember when Trump was a bad joke. Hell, I don't remember a time when we wasn't a bad joke.

Yes, this is the ongoing surreal experience of many of us from New York / the NE U.S. He has been a jackass of a megalomaniac celeb, established con man, and pathological liar forever, and it's like watching a really terrible movie to see him acting the role of national politician and apparently being taken serious by some sub-population of rubes.
posted by aught at 11:31 AM on August 8, 2016 [15 favorites]


"Whites in new Monmouth poll:

Men w/o degree: Trump +31
Women w/o degree: Trump +17
Men w/ degree: Trump +11
Women w/ degree: Clinton +30"


For point of comparison, in the CCES (a large academic survey) from 2012, white women with degrees were +17 Obama.
posted by ROU_Xenophobe at 11:31 AM on August 8, 2016 [3 favorites]


As a non-New Yorker, my first exposure to Trump was probably through jokes made at his expense by David Letterman.
posted by wabbittwax at 11:33 AM on August 8, 2016 [3 favorites]


Driving through Detroit the other day, I saw an ad for (warning: strip club website) Trumpps Detroit, a strip club that's apparently been around since 1989.

I live outside tacoma and am not really a strip club kind of person so I really, really cannot figure out why that link is greyed out for me.
posted by stet at 11:34 AM on August 8, 2016 [4 favorites]


Been letting Joe Biden use your computer?
posted by wabbittwax at 11:35 AM on August 8, 2016 [10 favorites]


I would lay hard money that the influx of that many people into the Democratic Party would actually pull it back towards the right, not the left.

I don't think they'll become Democrats. Remember, Trump's platform is pretty much the standard GOP platform, just with blunter language. Every single GOP candidate opined on how various parts of the Constitution didn't apply to women, PoC, Muslims, LGBTQ people, the poor, sexual assault survivors, and anybody to the left of Roger Ailes. Every. Single. One.

If Trump loses, they'll just go back to being run-of-the-mill Republicans. And that's the problem.
posted by zombieflanders at 11:35 AM on August 8, 2016 [25 favorites]


Perhaps of course that's exactly what they're doing; perhaps the value of internal polling isn't that they're more reliable, but just that they're more data points in general, or more specific data, and more data leads to a clearer picture overall.

That, yes: internal polling isn't necessarily more accurate, when compared to, er, comparable public polling, as 2012 proved --
It’s no secret that the Romney campaign believed it was headed for victory on Election Day. A handful of outlets have reported that Team Romney’s internal polling showed North Carolina, Florida, and Virginia moving safely into his column and that it put him ahead in a few other swing states. When combined with Ohio, where the internal polling had him close, Romney was on track to secure all the electoral votes he needed to win the White House. The confidence in these numbers was such that Romney even passed on writing a concession speech, at least before the crotchety assignment-desk known as “reality” finally weighed in.
Additional commentary at the NYT -
Pollsters can expect to take their share of blame when their campaigns lose, and this year has been no exception. Not long after Barack Obama and Democrats had a strong night on Nov. 6, Republicans began to complain publicly that the polls conducted by their campaigns and by affiliated groups implied considerably more optimistic outcomes for them than actually occurred.

Perhaps these Republicans shouldn’t have been so surprised. When public polls conducted by independent organizations clash with the internal polls released by campaigns, the public polls usually prove more reliable.
posted by cjelli at 11:36 AM on August 8, 2016 [5 favorites]


For one thing, it's too late to get on the ballot in a lot of states. Perot, for instance, began his effort back in February in 1992.

Or, almost 25 years ago. Plenty of time to get on the ballot. Say what you will about Perot, he could play the long game.

So what states are we thinking Perot might flip this time?
posted by Naberius at 11:37 AM on August 8, 2016 [18 favorites]


I'm definitely sad that so many white males can't seem to let go of their need to maintain a system that is built around elevating ourselves at the cost of virtually every other population.

It will be sad when the multicultural future decides to build worldships and then leave the Earth to the white guys to fight over like tribal warlords. Yes it could probably work well for a post-collapse sci-fi story or game but it just seems sad that we can't seem to accept that other people want their fair share as well.

But I guess the "When you are used to privilege, equality can feel like oppression" quote is definitely true. Sad but true.
posted by vuron at 11:37 AM on August 8, 2016 [6 favorites]


That #HillarysHealth thing is some seriously crackpot conspiracy nonsense. Since when does the Washington Post cover crackpot conspiracy theories?
posted by devinemissk at 11:39 AM on August 8, 2016 [1 favorite]


Let's say 15% - and I'm trying to be conservative - ultimately feel they need to find a new party because the GOP has decided to embrace being the Party of Trump.

I honestly really doubt that will happen. As zombieflanders said, the vast majority will still be Republicans. I think the likeliest chance for incremental movement in a progressive direction would happen if there was a blowout this year that was big enough to flip congress and the Dems were able to do some stuff that clearly helps people. Even then, many people might appreciate improvements in areas like healthcare, infrastructure and education, but remain ideologically divided.
posted by snofoam at 11:39 AM on August 8, 2016 [2 favorites]


Since at least 1972.
posted by wabbittwax at 11:40 AM on August 8, 2016 [6 favorites]


The only Trump hat I've seen in the wild was on the man half of a Polish speaking couple at a thrift store in the NW side Chicago neighborhood that is made up primarily of Polish nationals. I know people in the neighborhood and used to work in the neighborhood so I assumed it was just a general protest/racial marker rather than suggestive of voting for Trump.
posted by readery at 11:40 AM on August 8, 2016


The only Trump hat I've seen in the wild was on an Asian guy on the train from Boston to NYC. This was a long time ago, before Trump had even won the primaries, so I was surprised to say the least. I wonder if that guy's still a Trump supporter.
posted by peacheater at 11:43 AM on August 8, 2016


It'll be best for Hillary if the polls stay close. A dangerous trend would be for the traditional folks that don't bother to vote start to think Trump has no chance and thus just stay home in November.
posted by sammyo at 11:43 AM on August 8, 2016 [4 favorites]


That's what field is for.
posted by dersins at 11:45 AM on August 8, 2016 [1 favorite]


People like winner and want to join the winners.

People hate losers and want to abandon the losers.

Clinton having a massive lead would be great because the pile-on effect is real and the demoralization of the Republican base would have significant impacts on down-ballot races.
posted by vuron at 11:45 AM on August 8, 2016 [18 favorites]


Thanks for answering, and again this is entirely in good faith, but: is the mechanism by which more money gets better data known? Hiring more talented pollsters, buying better lists of people to contact?

I believe it is mainly buying better lists, often $30k+ per state, and doing more/better polling on a more detailed level (e.g., a whole range of issues and attitudes versus a couple questions about voting preference). A lot of public polls are done by colleges and news companies and the payoff is that they get to report their poll data. The polling itself is probably done at a loss. By comparison, top polling firms can charge lots of money to campaigns. Think about how much you can justify spending to have accurate polling when that data is going to help you maximize tens of millions of dollars in ad spending.

If a polling firm sucks, then they don't get hired by other campaigns, which is pretty equivalent to being wrong in public and not trusted in the future.
posted by snofoam at 11:46 AM on August 8, 2016 [4 favorites]


You know, I know a lot of people are kind of cheering about the fracturing of the GOP,

Speaking only for my far-left self, I'm not cheering this at all. I'm cheering a victory (I hope) for more progressive policies and politicians.

That said, I don't think any country benefits from having a single dominant political party. If I ran the circus, I would want there to be many different voices and opinions contributing to the way our country is run. However, I'd want those voices to be operating in such a way that they recognized that they would need to compromise sometimes and recognizing scientific reality sometimes and keep things the same sometimes and let things change sometimes all in the service of the public good.

Sometimes people on the right have ideas that are excellent and sometimes people on the left have ideas that are lousy. I'm sure some of my ideas are lousy. Perhaps even this one.

I don't want to see the collapse of the Republican party - I'd like to see it purge itself of its members who demand ideological purity at the expense of the public good. At the moment, that looks like defeating Trump and getting Republicans like you back into the driver's seat. We don't often agree, but I believe fervently that you are motivated by good will for your fellow humans and a desire to make things better for everyone.*

*And there are of course some Democrats that are more motivated by self-promotion and greed than desire for public good, too. We must continually work to replace them at the voting booth as well.
posted by Joey Michaels at 11:47 AM on August 8, 2016 [25 favorites]


Latest Utah poll by the locally respected Dan Jones & Associates shows Trump 12 points ahead of Clinton. Some "former policy director, CIA-agent" who may have to be written in on the ballot is not going to turn Utah Democratic.
posted by pashdown at 11:47 AM on August 8, 2016 [1 favorite]


GO BANANA!

GO BANANA!
posted by howling fantods at 11:49 AM on August 8, 2016 [1 favorite]


Come visit me in Middlesex County...

The same Middlesex County that has Cambridge and Somerville?

Man, MA has some weird county lines. I'm glad we've largely abolished them.
posted by explosion at 11:49 AM on August 8, 2016 [2 favorites]


Ticket splitting is a thing. Anyone who's enraged by Trump and wants to vote for Republicans can simply vote for Hillary or Deez Nuts at the top and garden variety GOP candidates downticket. I think we'll see record-setting numbers of that happening, but the idea that this portends doom for Democrats is kind of silly. You take the wins where you can get them.
posted by tonycpsu at 11:49 AM on August 8, 2016


The problem is that you see the people in the first row. And one of the guys in the front row behind home plate at home games wears a "Make America Great Again" hat.

Every.

Goddamned.

Night.


Remember that dude who used to go to ball games in a rainbow clown wig? Maybe you could show up at the next game and get a seat next to him, pretending to be that guy, but then about two innings into the game you could rip the wig off your head, rip the cap off his head and swap it for the wig, and run like hell.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 11:51 AM on August 8, 2016 [4 favorites]


An 'I'm With Stupid' shirt would be easier.
posted by robocop is bleeding at 11:52 AM on August 8, 2016 [19 favorites]


Come visit me in Middlesex County...

The same Middlesex County that has Cambridge and Somerville?


Yes. Come on out to Wilmington, Billerica, Tewksbury, Reading , etc and enjoy the Trumpiness.
posted by briank at 11:55 AM on August 8, 2016 [3 favorites]


One thing that is clearly hurting Trump is that his brand products are made abroad. It's unambiguous, there's nobody who can fail to understand what it means, you can't get around it, you can't square it with his stated policies, and HRC is giving it to him good and hard.

If we wanted to counter that, all he'd have to do is pledge to move all his Trump brand manufacturing back to the US. This would cost him money, but it would close down that attack somewhat - the somewhat being on how fast he did it, how wholehearted he was about it and so on. He could look at it as part of his self-financing strategy; he could even major on that aspect.

It's entirely up to him.

Thus, I propose that we can in some part answer the question 'does he actually want to win?' by whether he does this, as opposed to 'does he want to make a profit out the campaign and be delighted when his exit strategy pays off'.
posted by Devonian at 11:55 AM on August 8, 2016 [17 favorites]


Let me tell you when those guys decide to be mega-dicks and decide to roll coal with their diesels it definitely get me going "Hrmm you know that guy is so alpha he convinced me to vote for Trump!"

oh god oh god oh god

so a friend from grade school/high school is married to her high school sweetheart, she's pretty damn liberal, he unfriended me a year or so ago on Facebook after calling me a racist for saying that white people who deny that our society has a problem with race have their heads so far up their own asses they're wearing themselves as hats. Oh, and also I'm a racist for supporting BLM, because *insert bullshit racist catchphrase here, you know the one*. Over the years he's gone from being a pretty low-key, easygoing average guy to a super macho white American ideal of a man's man -- never not wearing camo, always planning a hunting trip, recently swapped out his old massive coal-rolling diesel truck for an even more massive coal-rolling diesel truck just shy of monster category that is painted white and which he is calling Pride, according to public posts on FB. So.

Anyway, I have no idea how this couple has survived this long with their differences, it's something she's remarked on in previous election years... but she's the high powered executive breadwinner and he just recently went back to work in construction after being a stay at home dad for several years and I know for a fact that she bought him that new truck, among so many other very expensive macho boy toys like new guns and ATVs and on and on and on. And there's just something about that that I find amazing. Did the super macho total dick in this guy rise up as a reaction to all the traditional gender role reversal in his life?
posted by palomar at 11:55 AM on August 8, 2016 [90 favorites]


like, how much toxic masculinity is driving our society right now, and this election? it feels like a lot. a LOT, a lot. am i wrong?
posted by palomar at 11:56 AM on August 8, 2016 [120 favorites]


You know, I know a lot of people are kind of cheering about the fracturing of the GOP,

I would love to see the disappearance of an entirely corrupt party whose primary focus for a half century has been to prop up millionaires and have done so by exploiting wedge issues and gullible single-issue voters and piggybacking on the fears dredged up by hate groups, yes.

I would not mind if it were replaced by an actual party based on economic conservatism and small government. I don't agree with it, but that's an opposition I can respect.
posted by maxsparber at 11:57 AM on August 8, 2016 [62 favorites]




Palomar- sounds like he's overcompensating (well duh) and she's falling into the trap of having to protect his fragile ego.

Continuing to give men's egos a series of crutches isn't doing them any favors. Sometimes you just gotta let go of your manbaby and see if they can survive on their own.
posted by vuron at 11:59 AM on August 8, 2016 [8 favorites]


Clustercuss: It was in the last thread and got squashed pretty fast.
posted by dfan at 12:00 PM on August 8, 2016 [2 favorites]


like, how much toxic masculinity is driving our society right now, and this election? it feels like a lot. a LOT, a lot. am i wrong?

You are not wrong at all. Most of the young Trump supporters in my life are Men's Rights types with a few "kill 'em all" bloodthirsty military types thrown in.

I don't know if there's actually MORE than there used to be or if it's like the uptick in police violence against minorities where it was always there but now we can see more of it.
posted by charred husk at 12:00 PM on August 8, 2016 [5 favorites]


If we wanted to counter that, all he'd have to do is pledge to move all his Trump brand manufacturing back to the US.

Put his money where his mouth is.
posted by kirkaracha at 12:02 PM on August 8, 2016 [1 favorite]


Come visit me in Middlesex County and I will show you a TON of Trump signs. I live in Scott Brown Country (even though he doesn't/didn't live here). One Trumper even verbally accosted my wife and daughter at the gas pumps of our town's Cumberland Farms because we had the temerity to have a Bernie bumper sticker.

I've seen Trump signs in Littleton (there's an office plastered in them right where 2A meets 119) and also Tyngsborough but in Acton I see old Bernie signs and Westford/Chelmsford I don't see much if any Trumpism.
posted by Talez at 12:02 PM on August 8, 2016 [1 favorite]


re: Trump signs - I was driving down the I-5 in WA from the border to Mt. Vernon last week and I was flabbergasted with the number of Trump signs that poked me in the eyeball.

Not a single Hillary sign, though.
posted by porpoise at 12:02 PM on August 8, 2016


Relinked from J.K Seazer - Snopes: Meredith McIver exists.
posted by Joey Michaels at 12:03 PM on August 8, 2016 [3 favorites]


Did the super macho total dick in this guy rise up as a reaction to all the traditional gender role reversal in his life?

Short answer: probably something like that.

In a study done earlier this year in New Jersey, priming male respondents to think about threats to traditional gender roles corresponded to a substantial reduction in support for Clinton:
Among men who did not receive the gender question, Clinton bests Trump by 16 points—49 percent to 33 percent. Among men who were asked the gender question, Trump has more support than Clinton by a margin of 50 points to 42 points. All told, reminding men about gender issues, leads to a 24-point swing in the match up, from a 16-point advantage for Clinton to an eight-point deficit.

posted by dersins at 12:04 PM on August 8, 2016 [22 favorites]


like, how much toxic masculinity is driving our society right now, and this election? it feels like a lot. a LOT, a lot. am i wrong?

I've pretty much reached the point where every cultural and societal ill/problem seems like it has at least part of its roots in toxic masculinity, but that may be my ~misandry~ talking.

Logically, I know not every problem comes down to toxic masculinity, but the spate of shootings, police violence against minorities, terrorist attacks, Trump's everything, online harassment trends, etc. have all combined to make it seem like all our problems come down to the awful ubiquity of toxic masculinity. And for those problems that aren't all on toxic masculinity, it sure seems like there's a high percentage of comorbidity with it, i.e. racism and toxic masculinity, unchecked capitalism and toxic masculinity, etc.
posted by yasaman at 12:04 PM on August 8, 2016 [32 favorites]


re: Trump signs - I was driving down the I-5 in WA from the border to Mt. Vernon last week and I was flabbergasted with the number of Trump signs that poked me in the eyeball.

You should go ask them what they think about Democrats and water rights. They think Trump and the Rs will let them drain whatever the hell river or aquifer they want. What happens after that? I don't know, socializing the losses of farms going down the shitter?
posted by Talez at 12:04 PM on August 8, 2016 [4 favorites]


Put his money where his mouth is.
I don't think he has enough money to accomplish that.
posted by Floydd at 12:05 PM on August 8, 2016 [4 favorites]


Put his money where his mouth is.

You don't want to get money dirty like that.
posted by maxsparber at 12:05 PM on August 8, 2016 [3 favorites]


Relinked from J.K Seazer - Snopes: Meredith McIver exists.

This seems more like proof that the current iteration of Meredith McIver is based on a real person, but that's as far as it really goes.
posted by prize bull octorok at 12:08 PM on August 8, 2016 [9 favorites]


And if you think I'm being hyperbolic, Trump vows to ‘open up the water’ in drought-stricken California.
Speaking at a rally in Fresno, Calif., Trump accused state officials of denying water to Central Valley farmers so they can send it out to sea “to protect a certain kind of three-inch fish.”
In Trump land, if the deltas aren't bone dry and the mud cracking we've fucked our farmers.
posted by Talez at 12:09 PM on August 8, 2016 [16 favorites]


If you think this Presidential Election is a clusterfuck, and you wonder if we'll make it through, I suggest you read up on the Election of 1824. This year is a walk in the park compared to that one! And then things "settled down" when Andrew Jackson got elected twice. Yeesh! As bad as Trump is, he doesn't have the competency of Jackson (just all the racism).

The GOP is not going to dissolve. If the NeverTrumpers had won at the convention, there's a decent chance it might've. If the Evangelical wing had split from the Trump/white/male wing (I know, they're largely the same wing, right?), it might've. But the Bush elites don't have the numbers in the party anymore. They started outsourcing their votes to angry white men in 1964 and never looked back. They made a losing demographic bargain. The GOP may try to reorient itself. But it's going to have a hard time shaking off the base's anti-gay, anti-immigrant, racist tendencies. Those things have no ideological link to low-tax, small government, but they've been the "secret sauce" for more than a generation now.
posted by rikschell at 12:10 PM on August 8, 2016 [10 favorites]


stop saying hamilton lines

*fidgets*
*starts sweating*
*pulls on necktie*
*straightens in chair*
*jiggles leg*
*clears throat*

Hamilton lines.
posted by duffell at 12:10 PM on August 8, 2016 [33 favorites]


> He has reported that he has seen a lot of crosses on the side of the interstate

These are memorials at the site of fatal car accidents.
posted by a mirror and an encyclopedia at 12:14 PM on August 8, 2016 [45 favorites]




Interesting logo Evan McMullan has. It'll look great with a cape and a pair of tights. And the prominent red star made me lol.
posted by octobersurprise at 12:16 PM on August 8, 2016


Is this the right place to post this? Twitter suspends Twitter account of Melania Trump speechwriter Meredith McIver, who probably isn't a real person.

Snopes has dubbed this allegation (that Meredith McIver isn’t real) to be false.
posted by Going To Maine at 12:17 PM on August 8, 2016 [2 favorites]


Anecdata (dada?) from Gersh Lutwin at the New York Daily News:

I've only just started reading but already it's like they're on two different worlds.
posted by Talez at 12:18 PM on August 8, 2016



I kind of want to go back to the Calvin peeing on stuff days


Now I want a Trump sticker. And a Calvin peeing sticker.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 12:21 PM on August 8, 2016 [5 favorites]


So, Carly Fiorina might have a new running mate?
posted by peeedro at 12:21 PM on August 8, 2016 [1 favorite]


like, how much toxic masculinity is driving our society right now, and this election? it feels like a lot. a LOT, a lot. am i wrong?

A friend of mine coined the phrase "Scaredy White Wang" to refer to the reactions she typically got existing in the world as a black woman growing up and going to college in the -tucky part of Pennsyltucky. It's the frothy mix of toxic masculinity and white supremacy even evident in supposedly liberal white college professors who just couldn't quiiiite accept that she might know more about the black experience than they did. This election is the ultimate culmination of Scaredy White Wang. It's like Scaredy White Wang got some water thrown on it and is now growing and reproducing like tumors all over the body politic. The ballot should just have a box to tick that says Scaredy White Wang and that'd pretty much cover it.
posted by soren_lorensen at 12:22 PM on August 8, 2016 [24 favorites]


These are memorials at the site of fatal car accidents.

Not always! I saw a ton of these sets of three crosses while driving through West Virginia.
posted by lalex at 12:22 PM on August 8, 2016 [4 favorites]


Speaking of toxic masculinity, this is a heartening read.
posted by chaoticgood at 12:24 PM on August 8, 2016 [9 favorites]


Snopes has dubbed this allegation (that Meredith McIver isn’t real) to be false.

So I generally find the Snopes.com sleuthery skills to be up there with other fact-checking operations I really respect, like that of the New Yorker. But weirdly enough, I find their evidence for the existence of Meredith McIver really thin attestation.

They're basically citing two pieces of evidence: a voter registration, and an article in the New York Times about a Trump-branded book she ostensibly ghost-wrote. All the registration proves is that there is a Meredith McIver registered to vote — and after all, that's not such a terribly improbable name — while the Times cite ultimately folds back to the Trump Organization itself.

I really, really dislike conspiracy theories, but I'm sorry, that does not strike me as a huge amount of evidence for the existence of a grown-ass woman in the New York City of 2016.
posted by adamgreenfield at 12:26 PM on August 8, 2016 [41 favorites]


It will be sad when the multicultural future decides to build worldships and then leave the Earth to the white guys to fight over like tribal warlords. Yes it could probably work well for a post-collapse sci-fi story or game but it just seems sad that we can't seem to accept that other people want their fair share as well.

posted by vuron at 2:37 PM on August 8 [+] [!]


It does/did. Peter F. Hamilton's six-volume "The Night's Dawn Trilogy" has this basic concept as the underpinning of planetary colonization.
posted by Thistledown at 12:27 PM on August 8, 2016 [3 favorites]


got some water thrown on it and is now growing

I didn't think that was how that worked.
posted by tclark at 12:27 PM on August 8, 2016


2016 - #NEVERTRUMP
2020 - #WHATEVERTRUMP ( Democrats forget to nominate a candidate)
2024 - #FOREVERTRUMP (22nd amendment repealed)
posted by blue_beetle at 12:30 PM on August 8, 2016 [2 favorites]


> He has reported that he has seen a lot of crosses on the side of the interstate

These are memorials at the site of fatal car accidents.


Even if you don't count those, there are a lot of crosses on the side of interstates in the South. Don't think they aren't as much warning as declaration of allegiance, either.
posted by Etrigan at 12:32 PM on August 8, 2016 [1 favorite]


They're basically citing two pieces of evidence: a voter registration, and an article in the New York Times about a Trump-branded book she ostensibly ghost-wrote.

They also cite this Guardian article, in which a reporter sees Meredith.
posted by Jpfed at 12:33 PM on August 8, 2016 [3 favorites]


that does not strike me as a huge amount of evidence for the existence of a grown-ass woman in the New York City of 2016.

Especially one who is supposedly a professional writer and would theoretically have her byline all over the place.
posted by Clustercuss at 12:34 PM on August 8, 2016 [4 favorites]


It seems entirely probable to me that Trump would find any current or former employee who signed an NDA fair game to use as a sockpuppet, scapegoat, unofficial spokesperson, pen name, etc
posted by prize bull octorok at 12:34 PM on August 8, 2016 [9 favorites]


2020 - #WHATEVERTRUMP ( Democrats forget to nominate a candidate)
2024 - #FOREVERTRUMP (22nd amendment repealed)


It's okay. WHATEVERTRUMP is actually the name of John Cho's movie from 2020 and FOREVERTRUMP is a Broadway Musical from 2024 starring Nathan Lane.
posted by charred husk at 12:35 PM on August 8, 2016 [2 favorites]


I've seen a few anti-Hillary bumper stickers that have the HILLARY in big letters and the anti- stuff in small letters. I wonder how effective those are (to the extent bumper stickers are effective at all) considering that unless you're right behind them at a stop light it looks like they're supporting her.
posted by ckape at 12:37 PM on August 8, 2016 [7 favorites]


It seems entirely probable to me that Trump would find any current or former employee who signed an NDA fair game to use as a sockpuppet, scapegoat, unofficial spokesperson, pen name, etc

This seems likely true (though presumably Meredith McIver would be entirely within her rights to take action if she were being impersonated without consent). However, answering that question is kind of beyond Snopes’ purview on this one. The NYT and Guardian are both good at fact-checking, and they verified McIver’s existence. There’s plenty of room for weirdness beyond that.
posted by Going To Maine at 12:38 PM on August 8, 2016 [1 favorite]


If we wanted to counter that, all he'd have to do is pledge to move all his Trump brand manufacturing back to the US.

The latest Hillary ad - the one that shows him on David Letterman - doesn't really indicate he'll do that, though. When called on "where are these shirts made?" and when it is revealed they were made in Bangladesh, Trump says something like, "...well, okay, but we're giving people in Bangladesh jobs, that's good, right?" At least he has the grace to look slightly embarrassed, but probably that's only because he's on camera.

As for Snopes and Meredith - that may not be strong evidence of Meredith's existence, but it's VERY strong evidence that Snopes itself is impartial (the allegation that Snopes has a liberal bias is something I've recently come across on the Social Media Frontier).
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 12:40 PM on August 8, 2016 [2 favorites]


The allegation that all not-explicitly-conservative media has a liberal bias is basically the media literacy version of 'when you’re accustomed to privilege, equality feels like oppression.'
posted by box at 12:44 PM on August 8, 2016 [53 favorites]


Republicans have for years been saying unemployment is understated in the official report because it doesn't count people who have stopped looking for work.

For values of "years" equal to "since the inauguration of Barack Obama," since Republicans by and large touted any positive employment report under Miserable Failure George W. Bush even when job creation failed to match population growth.
posted by Gelatin at 12:45 PM on August 8, 2016 [4 favorites]


the allegation that Snopes has a liberal bias is something I've recently come across on the Social Media Frontier

There you go again, reality, with your confirmed liberal bias.
posted by dis_integration at 12:47 PM on August 8, 2016 [1 favorite]


like, how much toxic masculinity is driving our society right now, and this election? it feels like a lot. a LOT, a lot. am i wrong?

idk if it's because the media is more open to reporting on it or not but i have definitely noticed what seems to be an alarming increase in violence/sexual assault against women in nyc and in the NE region in general over the last 3-4 months
posted by poffin boffin at 12:51 PM on August 8, 2016 [1 favorite]


(the allegation that Snopes has a liberal bias is something I've recently come across on the Social Media Frontier)

This is going to sound more glib than I mean it to be, but Republicans seriously hate facts and research. Conservatives want to believe whatever they initially feel is true about something when they first become aware of it, and they do not like it when people try to change their minds.
posted by IAmUnaware at 12:51 PM on August 8, 2016 [13 favorites]


TRUMP: Meredith! Get in here. The media, they're so biased against me, they don't think you're real. You need to get out there and prove you're real, Meredith.

MEREDITH: Oh gee Mr. Trump

[Meredith stays up all night studying ontological treatises]
posted by prize bull octorok at 12:52 PM on August 8, 2016 [65 favorites]


Gersh Kuntzman's dad (not his real name) might as well be my dad (also not his real name). They have no evidence, they just know Hillary can't be trusted. He cites Fox News/Alex Jones talking points but again, no evidence. So what if every Mayor of Townsville went on speaking tours after their term in office and made millions? If Harvard or Vanderbilt or the Daughters of Bilitis was going to pay me a million bucks to talk about how I feel about child welfare in Arkansas, I'm on the next freaking plane.

It's pretty easy to chalk up a cool 10 million when each of you get a quarter of that every speaking engagement and your calendar's full. To assign it some dastardly agenda is ridiculous. Just because a poor Jewish kid from Brooklyn (what is it with them?) can't imagine how someone could make money without a product to sell doesn't mean it doesn't exist, Zayde!

I know I'm irrationally angry about this, but I'm gearing up to talk to my family and I'm frustrated. I know they're going to pull all of these talking points (her health, the emails, the guns, Benghaaaaaazi) and I'm just trying to figure out the fastest way from conspiracy on tap to a can of shut the fuck up and vote for the woman.
posted by Sophie1 at 12:53 PM on August 8, 2016 [12 favorites]


Anecdata (dada?) from Gersh Lutwin at the New York Daily News:
“Inside the mind of a Trump voter: Part I, where nothing but the Middle East matters”, August 1, 2016.
“Inside the mind of a Trump voter, Part II: My dad continues to be completely irrational about Hillary Clinton”, August 8, 2016.


These aren't particularly good except for being examples of how not to discuss Trump with a Trump voter. Lutwin regularly - and his father notes this - veers away from the ostensible subject matter of the current debate (the Middle East, Hillary's wealth) by complaining about miscellaneous Trump assholery.

Like, this exchange for example:

Dad: I can’t prove that she did anything wrong to get it, but I want to ask your readers this one question: Do you think someone can earn $110 million wealth in 16 years legally? I’m asking your readers!

Gersh: She traded on her good name to make money. I’ll stipulate that.

Dad: Ask your readers: How could they amass that kind of wealth legally? I want your readers to think about that.


This exchange comes after they agree that the Clintons each get a quarter of a million dollars to make a speech.

The answer is "$110 million divided by two hundred and fifty thousand is four hundred and forty. Four hundred and forty speeches. That's over 16 years, because when they left office they were broke. So four hundred and forty, divided by sixteen. That's about twenty-eight speeches a year, that's two or three per month. It's big money, sure, but most of it was Bill - he's worth $80 million of that $110 million they're worth together - and getting a former President to speak is expensive because there's only four of them around. Hell, even Jimmy Carter costs you a hundred grand a pop. Dick Cheney goes for a hundred fifty. You might not like that the Clintons make big money giving speeches, but they're not hiding the fact that they do."

You can't out-evade a Trump voter. Don't even try.
posted by mightygodking at 12:55 PM on August 8, 2016 [50 favorites]


BTW, anybody curious about Texas politics - or who still misses Moly Ivins - should keep up with Juanita Jean at "The World's Most Dangerous Beauty Salon, Inc"
posted by Alter Cocker at 12:57 PM on August 8, 2016 [6 favorites]


(the allegation that Snopes has a liberal bias is something I've recently come across on the Social Media Frontier)

This is going to sound more glib than I mean it to be, but Republicans seriously hate facts and research. Conservatives want to believe whatever they initially feel is true about something when they first become aware of it, and they do not like it when people try to change their minds.

This is going to be glib too, but given the bit of backlash here against Snopes I’d assume that quite a few liberals don’t inherently like facts and research from authority figures either - they just like getting the benefit of said research generally supporting their framing and biases…
posted by Going To Maine at 1:00 PM on August 8, 2016 [5 favorites]


Guysguysguys it's s OK, I'm living proof Meredith exists.

The other night around 3am I was driving through the New Jersey Pine Barrens, and I saw a bright light maneuvering in ways no terrestrial aircraft could. Then my engine died and I saw Meredith hovering above the road only 40 feet away. When I asked her why she was registered Democratic, she took off at impossible speed, using no visible means of propulsion .

I reported the incident, but the Air Force said it was just Venus. But I know what I saw, I am a trained observer.
posted by happyroach at 1:02 PM on August 8, 2016 [32 favorites]


> He has reported that he has seen a lot of crosses on the side of the interstate

One of my favorites is this one, which seems to be installed just to watch over a huge "Adult Store" in Tennessee.
posted by achrise at 1:02 PM on August 8, 2016


- or who still misses Moly Ivins -

well nobody stops missing Molly Ivins.
posted by lalex at 1:04 PM on August 8, 2016 [34 favorites]


They also cite this Guardian article, in which a reporter sees Meredith.

Ah, but did they see her long form birth certificate?
posted by robocop is bleeding at 1:05 PM on August 8, 2016 [1 favorite]


Meredith is not a sockpuppet.

MEREDITH IS THE PUPPET MASTER!!!
posted by Windopaene at 1:08 PM on August 8, 2016


Andrew Kaczynski: Pence: Christians, Jews Would Be Included In Trump’s Territorial Terrorism Ban
“We should temporarily suspend immigration from countries that have been compromised by terrorism, which I think is altogether fitting and appropriate,” Pence said. “When you look at the Syrian refugee program — we had another incident in Belgium over the weekend — the simple fact is that both our Homeland Security and F.B.I. have said there are countries like Syria where people are coming in through routine means, the refugees program and otherwise and we can simply not know who they are for sure. So suspending that program from those countries, I think is in the best interest of the security of our people.”

Pence was asked if this meant the program would include Jewish and Christians citizens of those countries and he reiterated again the policy was based on countries where terrorism existed.
Yeah, those countries with dozens of shootings every day, radicalized religious terrorists who hate entire races and religions, and the corrupt politicians who implicitly and explicitly encourage them. Man, what a bunch of shit-holes!
posted by zombieflanders at 1:08 PM on August 8, 2016 [8 favorites]


So how about that Evan McMullin guy, huh.
posted by a lungful of dragon at 1:09 PM on August 8, 2016 [5 favorites]


Who?
posted by prize bull octorok at 1:11 PM on August 8, 2016 [6 favorites]


Is he still in it?
posted by mazola at 1:11 PM on August 8, 2016 [1 favorite]


Who?
posted by Cookiebastard at 1:12 PM on August 8, 2016 [2 favorites]


Every time I see the name Evan and the bald head, my mind goes straight to Evan Handler. And then I start thinking about Charlie Runkle running a campaign against Trump, and it's all downhill from there.
posted by McCoy Pauley at 1:12 PM on August 8, 2016 [2 favorites]


I feel like if Evan was a Steve we wouldn't be able to stop talking about him.

This election could always use another Steve or two, no doubt.
posted by Tevin at 1:14 PM on August 8, 2016 [1 favorite]


Pence: Christians, Jews Would Be Included In Trump’s Territorial Terrorism Ban

"You're right, religious intolerance is bad. Guess we'll just pivot back to racism."
posted by Etrigan at 1:14 PM on August 8, 2016 [1 favorite]


I enjoy the little "meh" face created by the unnecessary horizontal line in McMullin's logo. It's like the logo is self-aware.
posted by Strange Interlude at 1:16 PM on August 8, 2016 [11 favorites]


I feel like if Evan was a Steve we wouldn't be able to stop talking about him.

well yeah, if there was a Steve running against the Trump campaign we'd have The War of Six Steves and that'd be awesome
posted by prize bull octorok at 1:17 PM on August 8, 2016 [16 favorites]


On the other hand, Mondale took an 18-point, 500+ EV thrashing in '88, and it wasn't enough to destroy the Democratic party, so...

Not end, no, but between that and Newt Gingrich teaching Republicans to demonize their opponents every time they open their mouths, Democrats went into a 20-plus-year defensive crouch that they're only recently beginning, hopefully, to emerge from.
posted by Gelatin at 1:18 PM on August 8, 2016 [16 favorites]




Does that mean Trump will ban the Irish?

Mind you, you get some rum coves from Ireland..
posted by Devonian at 1:20 PM on August 8, 2016 [1 favorite]


They also cite this Guardian article, in which a reporter sees Meredith.

Yes, on reading that carefully, I tend to agree. If Meredith is a shell identity of some sort, that is Deep Game...and if there's anything we know about Team Trump it's that even three-dimensional chess is well beyond them. I withdraw my objection.

I am still in something close to awe that you can live a complete existence and leave so little trace upon the world, apparently without even trying to.
posted by adamgreenfield at 1:22 PM on August 8, 2016 [2 favorites]


Look at his face during the applause break. He's debating whether to correct himself.
posted by roll truck roll at 1:24 PM on August 8, 2016


Indiana Gov. Mike Pence said Donald Trump’s new “expanded” ban would include not just Muslims, but Christians and Jews from countries with a history of terrorism.

“We should temporarily suspend immigration from countries that have been compromised by terrorism, which I think is altogether fitting and appropriate,” Pence said. “When you look at the Syrian refugee program — we had another incident in Belgium over the weekend — the simple fact is that both our Homeland Security and F.B.I. have said there are countries like Syria where people are coming in through routine means, the refugees program and otherwise and we can simply not know who they are for sure. So suspending that program from those countries, I think is in the best interest of the security of our people.”
I so badly want a reporter to press either Trump or Pence on whether Belgium is one of 'those countries,' and if not, why not -- or whether France is one of them, or whether Germany is, or whether England is, and so on. Because the internal logical is nonsensical: it asserts that Belgium cannot accurately screen out terrorists, and uses that as proof for not accepting refugees from Syria; and yet we should accept people who claim to be Belgians, and for whom Belgium has issued visas? Despite just using the lack of appropriate Belgian border controls as evidence of why we need to not let people into the country? (The same for France, and England, and so on).

Taking the argument at face value, it doesn't make internal sense. If perfect vetting is a necessary pre-condition for admitting refugees, and terrorist attacks in Europe are proof thereof, then surely we shouldn't accept immigrants or travelers from any European country in which there has been a terrorist attack? Since that's proof that they can't be trusted to vet emigrants, and since we, apparently, aren't ready to vet immigrants? And yet the closest they've come to naming specific countries is 'from countries or from territories if you will – the caliphate obviously of ISIS expands beyond one country' so, you know, apparently European immigration is fine for some reason that has nothing to do with race or religion, I'm sure.
posted by cjelli at 1:27 PM on August 8, 2016 [11 favorites]


stop saying hamilton lines

That would be enough?
posted by dw at 1:31 PM on August 8, 2016 [23 favorites]


Tim kaine campaigning in Austin. Yes. In Texas.

Damn I was hoping it was going to be later in the week, when I'll be in Austin with nothing to do. I would totally go see Tim Kaine.
posted by threeturtles at 1:31 PM on August 8, 2016 [1 favorite]


That would be enough?

Hamilton > Meredith >>>>>>> Steve
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 1:32 PM on August 8, 2016


seriously though by the time November rolls around there won't be any good lines left and we'll be stuck quoting stage directions for post titles
posted by prize bull octorok at 1:33 PM on August 8, 2016 [11 favorites]


The only Trump hat I've seen in the wild was on the man half of a...

VERY disappointed the next word wasn't "centaur."
posted by Celsius1414 at 1:37 PM on August 8, 2016 [35 favorites]


stop saying hamilton lines

We are the

M E

T A

F I L

T

E R: We are

meant to be

A community weblog running independently
posted by jokeefe at 1:37 PM on August 8, 2016 [28 favorites]


How to discuss Trump with a Trump voter:

Donald Trump claims to be pro-business, but he has declared bankruptcy several times, and refuses to release his tax returns. How can we trust a candidate that doesn't even have two strips of latinum to rub together?

Donald Trump: He Doesn't Have the Lobes for This
Paid for by the Ferenginar Freedom Council


Donald Trump says he's the family values candidate, but he allows his females to acquire profit and wear clothing!

Donald Trump: Wrong on Females, Wrong for Ferenginar
Paid for by the Ferenginar Freedom Council


Donald Trump wants you to think he believes in the Blessed Exchequer, but he couldn't even remember rule #18 during a debate!

Donald Trump: Has He Even Read the Rules of Acquisition?
Paid for by the Ferenginar Freedom Council


Trump is a perfectly good Ferengi name, and yet Donald Trump insists on putting a hu-man name in front of it. So, which is it- Donald or Trump?

Donald Trump: You Can't Sign a Contract With a Man With Two Names
Paid for by the Ferenginar Freedom Council


Donald Trump: Freakishly Small Lobes
Paid for by the Ferenginar Freedom Council
posted by TheWhiteSkull at 1:37 PM on August 8, 2016 [87 favorites]


That would be enough?

DAYENU
posted by poffin boffin at 1:37 PM on August 8, 2016 [13 favorites]


seriously though by the time November rolls around there won't be any good lines left and we'll be stuck quoting stage directions for post titles

EXEUNT
November 9, 2016 12:37 AM [Subscribe]
posted by dersins at 1:38 PM on August 8, 2016 [9 favorites]


Hamilton > Meredith >>>>>>> Steve

the world was wide enough for Meredith and Steve
posted by prize bull octorok at 1:38 PM on August 8, 2016 [8 favorites]


we'll be stuck quoting stage directions for post titles

Election 2016 Megathread: Cross Left!
posted by donatella at 1:38 PM on August 8, 2016 [4 favorites]


seriously though by the time November rolls around there won't be any good lines left and we'll be stuck quoting stage directions for post titles

I'm saving "Who Lives Who Dies Who Tells Your Story" for Election Day myself.
posted by dw at 1:39 PM on August 8, 2016 [7 favorites]


I am still in something close to awe that you can live a complete existence and leave so little trace upon the world, apparently without even trying to.

It’s not that you leave little trace without trying - it’s that leaving a trace requires effort. If you’ve got a stable position, going to the work of making yourself visible on the web isn’t particularly important.
posted by Going To Maine at 1:39 PM on August 8, 2016 [1 favorite]


We'll be putting the rotating stage into play pretty soon, tho.
posted by dw at 1:40 PM on August 8, 2016 [4 favorites]


Election Eve: I know that we can win. I know that greatness lies in you
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 1:41 PM on August 8, 2016 [4 favorites]


Let's say 15% - and I'm trying to be conservative - ultimately feel they need to find a new party because the GOP has decided to embrace being the Party of Trump.

I think there are a couple of different ways this can go down though. Maybe a bunch of the reasonable conservatives, like yourself Corb, will form a new party and a bunch of the more moderate Democrats leave to join that.

Or maybe a bunch of the reasonable types join the dems and then that party splits off into two new ones. I would love to live in a world where people like Corb are holding on the right edge of the overton window and if Hillary ran in 2024, she might run as whatever the conservative party is in the future.

It think it will take a couple of presidential election cycles to emerge, whatever happens but I think that the downfall of the Republican party would be a good thing and represents an opportunity to drop the dead weight and only include mature, reasonable, adults going forward. Unless our voting system undergoes fundamental changes that would allow for more than two parties, the nature of our voting system will ensure that two, roughly equally powerful parties, will emerge. If the Republicans go away, something else will fill that void, it's just a question of what that new party will look like. A massive landslide victory for Dems in November will make me feel a lot better about what those parties will look like and I hope that most mefites have a really hard time deciding between the two.
posted by VTX at 1:42 PM on August 8, 2016 [3 favorites]


So Meredith is a weird JT Leroy thing? I'm confused.
posted by (Arsenio) Hall and (Warren) Oates at 1:43 PM on August 8, 2016


So like does he create a new horcrux every time he files for bankruptcy?

At this point, he could strut onto the stage at every rally with a gigantic snake named Nagini wrapped around his shoulders and declare himself The Dark Lord TrumpdeMort -- and that would still be less disturbing than more than half the shit that he's said already.
posted by zarq at 1:47 PM on August 8, 2016 [9 favorites]




Honestly if the endgame is just for all the Christofascists and white supremacists to be marginalized from mainstream political discourse for-fucking-ever, I will be delighted. However that happens, whatever the names of the parties are that come out the other end of this sausage grinder, I don't really care. Just please can we prove once and for all that those people are a small and ever-dwindling minority of backwards-ass hatemongers and get back to arguing about supply-side economics like a civilized country again?
posted by soren_lorensen at 1:51 PM on August 8, 2016 [18 favorites]


Who?

Maybe we know him better as "Star Lord?"
posted by ROU_Xenophobe at 1:51 PM on August 8, 2016 [2 favorites]


Now I've made you hear that "Who?" in Djimon Hounsou's voice. HA! And THAT in Edna Krabappel's voice!
posted by ROU_Xenophobe at 1:52 PM on August 8, 2016


we'll be stuck quoting stage directions for post titles

Exit Trump, pursued by a bear.
posted by happyroach at 1:57 PM on August 8, 2016 [15 favorites]


Those poor Republicans. They spend 25 years building up this huge propaganda machine trying to convince Americans that Hillary Clinton is literally Beelzebub. And now the long-prophesied day of doom has finally arrived: she's actually going to run for president. She's unpopular. They've got all their plans ready to defeat her.

And then Trump runs out on stage yelling, "Leerooooooooooy Jenkins!"

GOP TPK.
posted by straight at 1:57 PM on August 8, 2016 [85 favorites]


It Sure Sounds Like Donald Trump Just Said ‘Titties’ on Live Television

Just when I think I'm out, you pull me back in
posted by penduluum at 1:58 PM on August 8, 2016 [20 favorites]


This is why Mithraism never really took off, it's hard to make a blood-gunked grated pit iconic.

no, it's because they got their bbq sauce from memphis instead of kansas city ...
posted by pyramid termite at 1:58 PM on August 8, 2016 [3 favorites]


On a more serious note, 50 G.O.P. Officials Warn Donald Trump Would Put Nation’s Security ‘at Risk’


I'm picturing this like Thirty Helens Agree.
posted by TheWhiteSkull at 1:58 PM on August 8, 2016 [14 favorites]


Trump's concession speech: "Least I ain't chicken."
posted by VTX at 2:06 PM on August 8, 2016 [5 favorites]


It's a topsy-turvy world. First there are Deep Space Nine jokes in my election thread - may the Prophets save us from Trump, who has the same braggadocio as Dukat.

And then, for just a little while this afternoon, the Now-Cast had South Carolina blue. SOUTH CAROLINA.

Also, I have three brothers named Steve. None of them are among Trump's economic advisors, but maybe I'll suggest they should apply.
posted by Chanther at 2:07 PM on August 8, 2016 [5 favorites]


I wonder if we're due for a spell of one-party democracy, like Japan or Korea (or Singapore?).
posted by grobstein at 2:13 PM on August 8, 2016


I saw that SC-blue thing, too. I was all, like, HELLS no. But then I remember that the now-cast is all about, as Harry Enten says, "setting your hair on fire."

To all those predicting the end of the GOP as the party of white male hate, where do you think those voters are going to go? They were the single largest bloc in the GOP primary, and they are likely to be the same in four more years. They're not going to suddenly vote for a soft-on-immigration gay-marriage-loving candidate just to win. They're going to vote for Ted Cruz.
posted by rikschell at 2:14 PM on August 8, 2016 [5 favorites]


> And then Trump runs out on stage yelling, "Leerooooooooooy Jenkins!"

Well, at least he's got chicken...
posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 2:17 PM on August 8, 2016 [5 favorites]


They were the single largest bloc in the GOP primary, and they are likely to be the same in four more years. They're not going to suddenly vote for a soft-on-immigration gay-marriage-loving candidate just to win. They're going to vote for Ted Cruz.

Yes, but they will be fewer and fewer relative to everyone else for every election cycle. They are fighting back because they know they are loosing and it hurts.
posted by mumimor at 2:17 PM on August 8, 2016 [5 favorites]


To all those predicting the end of the GOP as the party of white male hate, where do you think those voters are going to go?

The grave, some of them. Part of social progress is old bigots dying off.
Of natural causes, of course!
posted by kirkaracha at 2:22 PM on August 8, 2016 [4 favorites]


Curt Schilling says he'll run for president in 8 years, or 4 if Hillary is elected. I bet he'll take all of the public funding he can get.
posted by mollweide at 2:23 PM on August 8, 2016 [5 favorites]


...because the last windbag bankruptcy abuser from the NE worked out so well for the Republicans.
posted by Fezboy! at 2:25 PM on August 8, 2016 [1 favorite]


Curt Schilling says he'll run for president in 8 years, or 4 if Hillary is elected.

MAKE AMALUR GREAT AGAIN
posted by murphy slaw at 2:29 PM on August 8, 2016 [22 favorites]


The grave, some of them.

Some, sure, but that won't solve the problem. The MRA and alt-right types (who have been cozying up to each other for a while now) are generally younger. The percentage is smaller, which is good, but there's still plenty of racism and sexism to be found in the younger generations. And views aren't static --- those people could "come around", or events could swell their numbers in the future.
posted by thefoxgod at 2:29 PM on August 8, 2016 [13 favorites]


can we stop calling them the alt-right and start calling them fascists yet
posted by murphy slaw at 2:30 PM on August 8, 2016 [51 favorites]


Curt Schilling says he'll run for president in 8 years, or 4 if Hillary is elected.

Waving the Bloody Sock!
posted by kirkaracha at 2:31 PM on August 8, 2016 [3 favorites]


I'm glad everyone is pretty calm in this thread and has moved on to Hamilton quotes because when I saw someone else had declared his candidacy I got wall-eyed with fear because WHAT IF THIS IS OUR ROB FORD SCENARIO YOU GUYS
posted by gusandrews at 2:37 PM on August 8, 2016 [1 favorite]


I personally guarantee you will not hear the name "Evan McMullin" come out of any newscaster's mouth on November 8.
posted by prize bull octorok at 2:38 PM on August 8, 2016 [7 favorites]


Evan McMullin is in Hamilton?
posted by mazola at 2:40 PM on August 8, 2016


FiveThirtyEight's NowCast shows Hillary at 95.2% to Trump's 4.8%.

Their polls-only forecast has her at 86.3% odds, and their quite–conservative polls–plus forecast gives her 78.3%. That includes all possible fluctuations between now and November, presumably, such as "Hillary Clinton kills a man," "Bill Clinton brings that man back to life, just to kill him all over again," and "Tim Kaine's harmonica–playing revealed to be tape–synced."
posted by rorgy at 2:41 PM on August 8, 2016 [39 favorites]


Well, I can live with coverage like this, even as Trump hits (yet another) reset on his campaign:

NYT: Mr. Trump called for ending what Republicans label the “death tax.” He did not mention that the estate tax currently exempts the first $5.45 million for an individual and $10.9 million for a married couple — meaning that only the very wealthy pay even a dime. If Mr. Trump’s net worth is as large as he has says, his heirs would have a great deal to gain from eliminating the estate tax; the typical displaced steelworker or coal miner, or even a relatively prosperous retiree, would have nothing to gain.
posted by RedOrGreen at 2:44 PM on August 8, 2016 [16 favorites]


No Longer a Bounce:
Historically, once the tumult of the conventions has settled, the polls tend to be fairly stable. There's sometimes a closing toward the end. Gore caught up with Bush at the end of the 2000 race. But again, people seem to make basic decisions during the conventions and they're usually hard to dislodge. That seems especially the case when the margin is substantial.
I think Trump has sustained permanent damage that he won't be able to recover from. I'm not saying the race can't tighten up, but he's at an all-time low on PollTracker and his ceiling's around 44%. Third-party candidates might bring Clinton's numbers down a bit, but not enough to make any practical difference.
posted by kirkaracha at 2:45 PM on August 8, 2016 [3 favorites]


Can Curt Schilling even run?
posted by srboisvert at 2:46 PM on August 8, 2016 [1 favorite]


Nah, his knees are shot.
posted by dersins at 2:47 PM on August 8, 2016 [43 favorites]


Can Curt Schilling even run?

What would disqualify him?
posted by waitingtoderail at 2:48 PM on August 8, 2016 [1 favorite]


then, for just a little while this afternoon, the Now-Cast had South Carolina blue. SOUTH CAROLINA.

SC's voted Dem only twice in the last 55 years (1960 & 1976), so I'm just saying, I think it will be a cold day in a hot Carolina summer when that happens again. (I think solid Democratic voters make up well less than half of the state's population. 40+% or something as I recall. The state party isn't even running a serious challenger to Tim Scott this year.)
posted by octobersurprise at 2:49 PM on August 8, 2016 [1 favorite]


Evan McMullin is in Hamilton?

Everybody's in Hamilton. We're all in Hamilton now. You've been in the Metafilter Cast of Hamilton for months (you're understudying Thomas Paine; even though he isn't a character in Hamilton, he is a character in Hamilton, because everybody is a character in Hamilton). All human discourse is conducted through the medium of Hamilton. All recipes and furniture assembly instructions have been replaced by pictorial representations of the major songs of Hamilton (which is to say, all the songs of Hamilton). I'm really looking forward to the release of the video game No Man's Sky, which is a procedural journey of exploration through a universe of quintillions of planets, each of which has their own cast and libretto of Hamilton. The DNA base codes of adenine, thymine, guanine and cytosine have been replaced by the characters of the three Schuyler sisters and very small flintlock pistol.
posted by penduluum at 2:51 PM on August 8, 2016 [52 favorites]


"South Carolina is too small for a republic and too large for an insane asylum." -- James Petigru
posted by kirkaracha at 2:52 PM on August 8, 2016 [3 favorites]


Yes indeedy, that's our motto.
posted by octobersurprise at 2:53 PM on August 8, 2016 [4 favorites]


McMullin cannot win by getting 270-plus electoral votes. It's too late, as people have pointed out above.

Hypothetically, if it were a month or two ago, McMullin could have gotten on the ballot in a couple of swing states. In a three-way contest, it doesn't take 50% to finish in first place, you could win that state with as little as 35% or so. (Compare Jesse Ventura's win in Minnesota in 1998.) It would have been unlikely that McMullin would have won outright, but if he would have kept Clinton to below 270, that would have thrown the election to the House of Representatives......where McMullin is a known GOP advisor.....

But that's all alternate history now. As it stands, McMullin has something like 36 hours to collect 5000 signatures if he wants to be on the ballot in Ohio. Likewise Colorado. The Florida, North Carolina, Nevada, and other swing state deadlines are long past.

If his goal really is only to stop Trump, he could get on the ballot in Arizona still, also a few redder states like Kentucky, Mississippi, Idaho. Any success that he has there would solidify a Clinton win, it seems like, either by winning the state outright, or by pulling votes away from Trump.

(Or, the whole thing is hot air, and we'll all forget about it later this week.)
posted by gimonca at 2:54 PM on August 8, 2016 [1 favorite]


You know what would be weird? If the nowcast kept going so far that eventually it turned over to zero. Maybe that's the Trump plan!
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 2:54 PM on August 8, 2016 [3 favorites]


The McMullin thing is stupid and going nowhere. I may get more votes than he will and I'm only up to 3.
posted by Justinian at 2:57 PM on August 8, 2016 [2 favorites]


Another thing to consider around third party campaigns for President: they're tough just in general. Ross Perot got quite a few votes in 1992, something like 18% of the total? As a reward, he came away with zero electoral votes. George Wallace was the last 3rd party person to get any electoral votes, in 1968, he was basically regional. Before that....off the top of my head, LaFollette won his home state of Wisconsin in the 1920s?
posted by gimonca at 2:59 PM on August 8, 2016


Yeah the titties thing is all well and good but my favorite slip up is Trump calling Clinton short-circulated. Labeling her short-circuited was bad enough but now he is calling her circulation into question. Or maybe he is calling her magazine subscriptions into question-- it is really hard to tell with Trump.
posted by Secret Life of Gravy at 2:59 PM on August 8, 2016 [5 favorites]


The McMullin thing is stupid and going nowhere. I may get more votes than he will and I'm only up to 3.

Four!
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 2:59 PM on August 8, 2016 [1 favorite]


Another on-air talent 'disappeared' at Fox News after reporting harassment from Roger Ailes:
Fox News host Andrea Tantaros says she also was a target of ex-network boss Roger Ailes’ alleged sexual harassment and eventually was pulled off the air after rebuffing his advances, according to a New York Magazine report out Monday.
posted by PenDevil at 3:00 PM on August 8, 2016 [5 favorites]


starting to wonder if the entire trump campaign is just a smokescreen to keep the slow-motion collapse of Fox News off the front page (or at least below the fold)

nah, not really
posted by murphy slaw at 3:02 PM on August 8, 2016


i would wear the hell out of a 'make byzantium great again' hat

preferably blue with green letters, of course
posted by tivalasvegas at 3:04 PM on August 8, 2016 [11 favorites]


gimonca -- Harry Byrd got 15 votes in 1960 from faithless electors. And Strom Thurmond got 39 in 1948 because racists gonna racist.
posted by nathan_teske at 3:05 PM on August 8, 2016 [2 favorites]


Only plebs wear the green.
posted by Justinian at 3:07 PM on August 8, 2016 [6 favorites]


Although the U.S. Constitution is typically silent on the details of how the states conduct elections, for unclear reasons the Founders specified that vote counts must be stored in unsigned variables — presumably, this had something to do with the high cost of memory in the computers available at the time. As a result of this, though, if a candidate can somehow get their vote total so low that it's actually too small to store, this will cause the recorded value to loop back around, making it seem as if that candidate has received well over two billion votes.

The strategy of attempting to win by producing an underflow condition hasn't been used successfully since Polk in 1844, which is why the sporadic attempts to correct this bug in the Constitution through an amendment never really go anywhere. FWIW, most other modern democracies have learned from the errors of the drafters of the U.S. constitution, and generally prevent this sort of error by making sure that floating-point arithmetic is never used in vote tabulations.
posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 3:07 PM on August 8, 2016 [78 favorites]


Alternately little Bobby Droptables runs for president.
posted by nathan_teske at 3:09 PM on August 8, 2016 [18 favorites]


...starting to wonder if the entire trump campaign is just a smokescreen...

One of the stupider conspiracy theories floating around is that he and the Clintons are friends, and his entire candidacy is a ruse to destroy the GOP.
posted by zarq at 3:09 PM on August 8, 2016 [1 favorite]


Only plebs wear the green.

Given the average life expectancy of the emperors, I'm ok with pleb status
posted by tivalasvegas at 3:10 PM on August 8, 2016


okay, i really want to know - why do republicans push so hard on the goddamn estate tax? it's an issue that affects a tiny % of voters and i can't believe it moves the needle for anyone else even if they call it the "death tax" or "grave robbing" or "necrotaxation" or whatever is the current formulation.

it doesn't seem like the kind of thing that does any good being in a presidential platform at all. if you want to repeal it, you just push it through the legislature.

but the first minute conservatives get the opportunity to write trump's economic policy, there it is at the top of the list in bright red letters. what gives?
posted by murphy slaw at 3:14 PM on August 8, 2016 [5 favorites]


something something temporarily embarrassed millionaires
posted by entropicamericana at 3:15 PM on August 8, 2016 [12 favorites]


Evan McMullin was on ABC news. He called Trump inhuman and Clinton woefully unfit.
Asked specifically about House Speaker Paul Ryan, Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus and former Republican presidential candidate -- and fellow Republican with deep ties in Utah -- Mitt Romney, McMullin said that he has not spoken to any of those individuals about his run.

"I've been wrestling with the decision for a couple of weeks," noting that he spent "time in prayer" before deciding.
Great. Another person who talked to God about his campaign. God sure does take an interest in American politics although I note God also has a wicked sense of humor since those people that God tells to run for President never have a hope in hell: Carson, Huckabee, Scot Walker, Cruz, Rick Perry AND Rick Santorum, and that's just this election season.
posted by Secret Life of Gravy at 3:15 PM on August 8, 2016 [14 favorites]


but the first minute conservatives get the opportunity to write trump's economic policy, there it is at the top of the list in bright red letters. what gives?

The rich folks.
posted by Celsius1414 at 3:15 PM on August 8, 2016 [10 favorites]


The estate tax thing also sounds good. Most people honestly have no idea that it only begins to apply to $5.45 million dollar estates, $10.9 million for couples, plus all the various avoidance mechanisms. They just hear "death tax" and get angry, despite strikingly low odds they've ever lost a penny because of the tax.
posted by zachlipton at 3:18 PM on August 8, 2016 [17 favorites]


Some pundit noted that Trump succeeded the primaries by "being Trump" but everyone talks about when will he start "talking presidential" and "unifying the party". And he did a bit giving (grudging) support to Ryan. But the point was it was not trump-ish. And the more Trump is less like Trump the weaker he'll become, but if he remains trump-ish the wackiness will also catch up with his message being recognized as, well, wacky.
posted by sammyo at 3:19 PM on August 8, 2016


it's an issue that affects a tiny % of voters

well one possible hypothesis is that a tiny % of voters have a large amount of influence on conservative priorities

crazy talk i know
posted by tivalasvegas at 3:20 PM on August 8, 2016 [34 favorites]


AP Factcheck on today's economic speech.
TRUMP: “The United States also has the highest business tax rate among the major industrialized nations of the world, at 35 percent. It’s almost 40 percent when you add in taxes at the state level.”

THE FACTS: The stated corporate tax rate looks high, but most U.S. businesses don’t pay it. The tax code is full of deductions, credits and loopholes that limit the tax burden for many companies. The effective corporate income tax rate is around 27 percent, roughly in line with global averages, according to government estimates.

Another way to look at it is examining federal corporate taxes as a share of the U.S. economy. Corporate taxes made up just 1.9 percent last year, according to the government. That is well below the historic average of 2.7 percent, but slightly above the Reagan-era levels during the 1980s. In some years, the majority of all large U.S.-controlled corporations reported no federal tax liability, according to the Government Accountability Office.
posted by Secret Life of Gravy at 3:23 PM on August 8, 2016 [7 favorites]


And simply, eliminating the estate tax polls well. 54% support a repeal, 19% disagree, and 26% don't know. Around 1 in 500 estates pay estate tax since the exemption threshold was raised.
posted by zachlipton at 3:23 PM on August 8, 2016 [1 favorite]


Trump on His Trump U Blog: “Outsourcing Jobs…Not Always a Terrible Thing”:
I understand that outsourcing means that employees lose jobs. Because work is often outsourced to other countries, it means Americans lose jobs. In other cases, nonunion employees get the work. Losing jobs is never a good thing, but we have to look at the bigger picture.
posted by kirkaracha at 3:25 PM on August 8, 2016 [1 favorite]




okay i guess i get it. people like you to say you'll eliminate taxes, even if the specific tax doesn't affect them.

i guess the democrats haven't found sufficient judo to sell it as what it is, a hedge against the establishment of a hereditary aristocracy.
posted by murphy slaw at 3:26 PM on August 8, 2016 [14 favorites]


Great. Another person who talked to God about his campaign.

A lot of people in this country are religious. A lot of people pray. As had been noted elsewhere, both Kaine and Clinton have spoken about their religion and its role in their lives. The Muslims who are right wing bug bears are themselves (shockingly, I'm sure) religious, and as they become more involved in American politics they will bring those beliefs with them. Religious political figures are as American as apple pie.
posted by Going To Maine at 3:26 PM on August 8, 2016 [1 favorite]


"the Richie Rich tax"
posted by LobsterMitten at 3:27 PM on August 8, 2016 [3 favorites]


just wondering, is McMullin a Mormon? (not that it will have any effect on his non-existent vote count)
posted by murphy slaw at 3:28 PM on August 8, 2016


Yeah, he's Mormon.
posted by Justinian at 3:30 PM on August 8, 2016 [1 favorite]


Asking in good faith: why would Hillary want Kissinger's endorsement? I understand why she'd want Condi's and other Bush flacks (this would divide the Rs and further emphasize the lack of support Trump has in his family), but how would Kissinger's support help her?
posted by pxe2000 at 3:30 PM on August 8, 2016 [3 favorites]


i guess the democrats haven't found sufficient judo to sell it as what it is

I'd ask why these heirs aren't out there building and creating their own wealth. Why do they need handouts from any source?
posted by tclark at 3:32 PM on August 8, 2016 [4 favorites]


Asking in good faith: why would Hillary want Kissinger's endorsement?

Gotta catch 'em all!
posted by mazola at 3:32 PM on August 8, 2016 [7 favorites]


If Hillary Clinton Seeks (or Accepts) an Endorsement from Henry Kissinger, She's Lost My Vote

The caveat below the headline is that he lives in a super blue state so he gets to have his protest vote confident that others will do the work of electing the qualified president for him. I'm completely done with this vote-as-expression-of-conscience horseshit after the primaries. This is a fucken job interview, there's two candidates, pick one.
posted by prize bull octorok at 3:33 PM on August 8, 2016 [70 favorites]


> okay, i really want to know - why do republicans push so hard on the goddamn estate tax? it's an issue that affects a tiny % of voters and i can't believe it moves the needle for anyone else even if they call it the "death tax" or "grave robbing" or "necrotaxation" or whatever is the current formulation.

Ooh I know this one.

Despite the pretense that the state is responsive to the demands of the public as expressed through electoral means, in practice "democratic" institutions are for the most part controlled by the big bourgeoisie. This is why elected representatives tend to be more concerned with the wants of the very wealthy than they are with the needs of the electorate at large, even though on paper they're meant to represent the electorate as a whole rather than just the big bourgeoisie.
posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 3:33 PM on August 8, 2016 [9 favorites]


Gotta catch 'em all!

i'm assuming "'em" is referring to war criminals

why do the dems make it so hard to vote for them sometimes good lord. like yes i will vote for you HRC because trump is a racist fascist disaster but please PLEASE stop talking to or about henry kissinger other than saying he is a war criminal who should be rotting in jail
posted by burgerrr at 3:36 PM on August 8, 2016 [22 favorites]


Ivanka spoke to the Detroit Free Press today. Ivanka Trump: Critics 'scared' of Donald Trump presidency

I know I personally am frightened by a Trump Presidency because I think he is unstable but go on, Ivanka, you were saying?
she also acknowledged that it is sometimes difficult for her to understand why people don't see her father as the warm and empathetic man she knows well.

Part of the reason, she said, may be that he has been underestimated for far too long.

"They’re scared," Ivanka Trump said of her father's harshest critics. "They never thought that he’d be where he is."

She added that "I think there will be many people who will seek to diminish him." But Ivanka Trump said she has faith in the American's electorate to decide for themselves.

"Everyone has one vote and the American people will make up their own minds," she said. "And they are coming out in droves in support of his fresh perspective, his honesty, his candor, his bold version for the future of this country. And the support has been tremendous."
"His fresh perspective" = No experience
"His honesty" = ??????
"His candor" = Not a PC pussy
"His bold version of the future" = A version of America where only whites are allowed to be immigrants and everyone else is deported, a version of America where Trump is emblazoned on every surface available, a version where NATO, UN, and NAFTA treaties are torn up and our allies must pay us tribute, because apparently we are going to rebuild the country and erect a 20 foot wall along our Southern border while slashing taxes.
posted by Secret Life of Gravy at 3:39 PM on August 8, 2016 [10 favorites]


Around the corner from my house, there is a truck my wife and I call the Fail Truck because it sports bumper stickers of unsuccessful Republican candidates.

My wife and I saw the ultimate Trump truck this weekend - an older Nissan (I think) pick up truck with about 30-40 Trump bumper stickers plastered on the tailgate. Also a custom license plate that read "4 TRMP". It was spotted in the parking lot of a very upscale-looking apartment complex in Reston, VA. Starting to wish I had taken a picture of it.

Besides that, the only trump signage I've seen is another truck with a Trump bumper sticker (just one) in my office parking lot. Funny thing is that I live in Fairfax County, VA (not exactly Trump territory) but I haven't seen any political signs the handful of times this year I've driven elsewhere in Virginia.
posted by photo guy at 3:40 PM on August 8, 2016


PEC has random drift probability of Clinton winning at 70%, Bayesian at 85%. Both pretty close to where they've been all season. c'mon landslide c'mon landslide no whammy no whammy
posted by en forme de poire at 3:41 PM on August 8, 2016 [9 favorites]


Sorry this is way late, had to catch up:

Pence: Christians, Jews Would Be Included In Trump’s Territorial Terrorism Ban

Oh, good. I guess that means all the Hindi, Taoist, Buddhist, Zoroastrian, Shinto, Confucianist, Jains, and Sikh immigrants are a-okay then. /sarcasm
posted by daq at 3:41 PM on August 8, 2016


daq, he means Christian and Jewish refugees would be banned as well.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 3:44 PM on August 8, 2016


I know I'm irrationally angry about this, but I'm gearing up to talk to my family and I'm frustrated. I know they're going to pull all of these talking points (her health, the emails, the guns, Benghaaaaaazi) and I'm just trying to figure out the fastest way from conspiracy on tap to a can of shut the fuck up and vote for the woman.

I hate to say it, but there is no 'short-cut' to argue against this. It really does require deprogramming and counter-programming to get people to understand that their worldview has been skewed so far out of sync with reality.

The good news is that if Clinton's media team does what I think they are going to do, you might start to see your family repeating talking points that are more positive eventually. But that is a very hard nut to crack, even with national advertising buys during major media events.
posted by daq at 3:45 PM on August 8, 2016 [1 favorite]


Oh, wait. I misread you, daq.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 3:46 PM on August 8, 2016


ChurchHatesTucker: oh, I know what he means. I was just trying to point out he left out a bunch of other religions to try and exclude from entering the U.S.

Edit: Is ok, I write funny.
posted by daq at 3:46 PM on August 8, 2016 [2 favorites]


I'm completely done with this vote-as-expression-of-conscience horseshit after the primaries. This is a fucken job interview, there's two candidates, pick one.

Wish I could remember who said this, but: The RSVP for the reception has two choices. You can choose chicken, or you can choose fish. You can throw a tantrum and write in steak, but you aren't getting a steak because the caterers are only providing chicken or fish, so make a fucking choice.
posted by scaryblackdeath at 3:48 PM on August 8, 2016 [55 favorites]


> immigrants are a-okay then. /sarcasm

This is from Pence, who has been downgrading Trumps spew-hole garbage lately, but I'm actually kind of ok with the new redefinition: refugees/immigrants will be barred based on the territory they are from, not the prospective refugee/immigrant's personal religiousity.

I presume that atheists from "banned territories" would also be banned.

Still, it's insanity, and a little confusing that they would muddy up their anti-muslim message. I'm chalking this up as another example of incompetence.
posted by porpoise at 3:50 PM on August 8, 2016


Wish I could remember who said this, but: The RSVP for the reception has two choices. You can choose chicken, or you can choose fish. You can throw a tantrum and write in steak, but you aren't getting a steak because the caterers are only providing chicken or fish, so make a fucking choice.

It's writing "steak" and counting on the person behind you to tell the staff to make you the chicken dish because at least you can eat that whereas the fish is full of little sharp bones and racism. But of course you can't just write down chicken, you need The People to know that you're a steak person and you will not compromise your steak-principles but somebody please make sure you get the chicken when it comes down to it
posted by prize bull octorok at 3:53 PM on August 8, 2016 [88 favorites]


Re: 'Fail Trucks', sighted in suburban Mass. - Hummer H3 with vanity plate "NOMOBO", surprisingly faded "Ben Carson For President" bumper stickers along with (paraphrasing) "It's My Business, I Built It" and "Some People Just Want To Get Everything For Free" stickers.
posted by the painkiller at 3:54 PM on August 8, 2016


It's actually not any more okay to discriminate based on national origin than on religion

they are both really really non-okay
posted by tivalasvegas at 3:54 PM on August 8, 2016 [13 favorites]


The RSVP for the reception has two choices. You can choose chicken, or you can choose fish a live, angry cobra on your plate.
posted by Mayhembob at 3:55 PM on August 8, 2016 [19 favorites]


Wish I could remember who said this, but: The RSVP for the reception has two choices. You can choose chicken, or you can choose fish. You can throw a tantrum and write in steak, but you aren't getting a steak because the caterers are only providing chicken or fish, so make a fucking choice.

Sure, but if Charlie Pierce finds seated next to Henry Kissinger at the reception, it's probably a good thing they aren't serving steak, so there won't be any steak knives around on the table.
posted by zachlipton at 3:56 PM on August 8, 2016 [4 favorites]


Donald Trump on Baltimore’s Mayor: ‘She Is A Joke’

Oh phew. I was afraid he was hiding all his pent-up anger and his head might explode. After all we can't have an election day pass without Trump lashing out at someone-- he might do himself an injury.

During the State of the Union show Sunday morning, Jake Tapper asked Baltimore Mayor Stephanie Rawlings-Blake if Democrats could get too confident.
“I think if we paid attention as much as much as pollsters and as much as the media does to the polling we can get complacent and I think there’s a risk that people might not come out to vote. But we’re not going to do that,” she said. “This election is too important and the poll numbers are great now, but the poll numbers that matter are the polls in November and that’s getting people out to the poll to vote. There’s so much that’s happening with voter’s suppression. Why? Because that’s the only way the republicans win–If they close the tent, reduce the tent, keep voters away from the polls. We are not going to be fooled. So all of this, the bad week for Trump, the good week for Clinton, that’s fine this week, but we’re very focused on a grassroots game to get people to the polls this election matters too much.”

Trump fired back on Twitter calling the Baltimore mayor a joke.

“I see where Mayor Stephanie Rawlings-Blake of Baltimore is pushing Crooked hard,” he said. “Look at the job she has done in Baltimore. She is a joke!”

“Crooked” is a term Trump uses to refer to Hillary Clinton.
Thanks for that little tip, CBS. It's good to have this insider knowledge.
posted by Secret Life of Gravy at 3:56 PM on August 8, 2016 [6 favorites]


I bring my pet mongoose with me to catered events for exactly that eventuality though
posted by tivalasvegas at 3:57 PM on August 8, 2016 [7 favorites]


Well alternately you could be playing a long game, hoping that eventually steak will be an option if enough people request it.

Really though because of the vagaries of FPTP, the proper way to run this strategy is to join up with people asking for something almost but not quite fish, in the interest of splitting the fish vote long-term, thereby sabotaging all fishy parties and freeing up space for the steakmost members of the chicken party to safely push that party toward steakalism.
posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 4:00 PM on August 8, 2016 [10 favorites]


Somebody oughta trick Henry Kissinger onto a non-stop flight to the southern cone. Or Cambodia. Or any of a dozen places that would arrest him.
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 4:01 PM on August 8, 2016 [4 favorites]


Fuck you guys, I'm writing in "Dessert" and I'm eating dessert for every course and if you don't get any because I've eaten it all that'll teach you to vote for Cheesecake in the future.
posted by Secret Life of Gravy at 4:01 PM on August 8, 2016 [6 favorites]


Stephanie Rawlings Blake is fairly unpopular in Maryland, even among ostensibly liberal people. That being said, Maryland is no closer to turning red than [looks through list of red states] uh, Texa- no... [continues to look] um... Kentucky, is to turning blue. Regardless of how much trump panders to the yokels and racists in the county.
posted by codacorolla at 4:02 PM on August 8, 2016


Cheesecake/ Creme Brulee 2020.
posted by Secret Life of Gravy at 4:02 PM on August 8, 2016 [2 favorites]


Stephanie Rawlings-Blake is responsible for the first of many gavel incidents at the DNC. That was top notch physical comedy, not a mere joke.
posted by zachlipton at 4:05 PM on August 8, 2016 [8 favorites]


YCTAB: Really though because of the vagaries of FPTP, the proper way to run this strategy is to join up with people asking for something almost but not quite fish, in the interest of splitting the fish vote long-term, thereby sabotaging all fishy parties and freeing up space for the steakmost members of the chicken party to safely push that party toward steak.

Hamburger?
posted by Scattercat at 4:07 PM on August 8, 2016 [4 favorites]


As Lenin argued in his famous pamphlet, so-called "left-wing" support for dessert before the meal is best understood as an infantile disorder.
posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 4:08 PM on August 8, 2016 [4 favorites]


it doesn't even have to be either/or, chicken can be dessert (I learned this in the Turkish delight thread)
posted by prize bull octorok at 4:10 PM on August 8, 2016 [4 favorites]


LUMPER.
posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 4:11 PM on August 8, 2016 [1 favorite]


My letters are so great

I write fabulous letters. If you read all the letters I have written, you would agree. You would love them. Other letter writers are weak, soft, and out of touch.

posted by zakur at 4:18 PM on August 8, 2016 [10 favorites]



As Lenin argued in his famous pamphlet, so-called "left-wing" support for dessert before the meal is best understood as an infantile disorder.

Could be. Or it could be my momma taught me to eat dessert first because otherwise you might be too full. Our great Thanksgiving tradition was to eat pie the night before because it was so much better when you weren't feeling glutted the day of the big feast. I guess that means my mama never taught me about the miracle of portion control but there we are. Sometimes all you want for dinner is a hot fudge sundae.
posted by Secret Life of Gravy at 4:23 PM on August 8, 2016 [7 favorites]


Sometimes all you want for dinner is a hot fudge sundae.

Ha, yeah, "sometimes."
posted by infinitywaltz at 4:24 PM on August 8, 2016 [22 favorites]


...he lives in a super blue state so he gets to have his protest vote confident that others will do the work of electing the qualified president for him
Strange attitude. Voters in non-swing-states aren't choosing to be disenfranchised; that's just how electoral college math works. I'm strongly in favor of sucking up your pride and choosing the lesser of two evils when your choice actually has a chance of affecting something, but when someone is stuck casting a purely symbolic vote in any case, isn't it a bit entitled to deny them their own choice of symbolism?
posted by roystgnr at 4:24 PM on August 8, 2016 [3 favorites]


I'd ask why these heirs aren't out there building and creating their own wealth. Why do they need handouts from any source?

Okay my attempt at a non-snarky (okay less-snarky) answer is that inheritance is seen as a special kind of transfer, or rather not even a transfer at all. Even people who won't be affected by it still get kind of misty-eyed when they think about passing their mom and pop pickup-truck-full-of-apple-pies-and-guns business on to junior some day, and they don't like government intruding on this, they don't even like the idea of filling out a form, they want the government to fuck off out of this important private special family matter.
posted by nom de poop at 4:25 PM on August 8, 2016 [2 favorites]


isn't it a bit entitled to deny them their own choice of symbolism?

well from my perspective I see the entitlement more along the vector of having the luxury of being able to cast a protest vote while other people have to organize and GOTV and put some real effort into turning their states blue, particularly since I am just complaining on the internet and have no power to deny Charles Pierce a blessed thing. But good god do the annoying guys on your Facebook feed need more encouragement along these lines?
posted by prize bull octorok at 4:28 PM on August 8, 2016 [10 favorites]


Hey! Feynman ate his dessert before the main course, because - as he said - 'you never know'. And if you're asking me to choose between Feynman and Trump...

Feynman may even have been the anti-Trump. If they'd met, it could have been bad news for the solar system.
posted by Devonian at 4:31 PM on August 8, 2016


God, we're all going to need months of deprogramming after this election before the words best, huge, beautiful, great, fantastic, tremendous, sad, incredible, big-league, classy, wall, deal, disaster, trump, and win are usable again.

Win hadn't fully recovered from Charlie Sheen yet. Poor win.
posted by Spathe Cadet at 4:31 PM on August 8, 2016 [16 favorites]


yeah i'm sorry, i'm pretty okay with the government interrupting your misty eyes if it prevents your dad from creating an endless line of people who never have to do a day's work in their lives
posted by murphy slaw at 4:33 PM on August 8, 2016 [12 favorites]




I can't even hear repeated intensifiers like "very, very" or "really, really" at this point without some involuntary twitching

autocorrect suggested "involuntary manslaughter", would also work
posted by tivalasvegas at 4:36 PM on August 8, 2016 [8 favorites]


If ever there were a tax that several of the country's founders would be all for, it's the estate tax.
posted by soren_lorensen at 4:37 PM on August 8, 2016 [3 favorites]


Win hadn't fully recovered from Charlie Sheen yet.

pretty sure dj khaled can reclaim "win" any time he damn well feels like it
posted by murphy slaw at 4:38 PM on August 8, 2016 [1 favorite]


As someone who used to listen to talk radio out of a morbid curiosity, I can say that the death tax thing was sold by Rush Limbaugh pretty much exactly like this: Maw and Paw Farmer are hard working, salt of the earth, Christian, Good People (tm). Their farm has been in their family for generations. Maw and Paw don't have a lot of cash but they eek out an honest existence. Maw and Paw's farm has increased in value over the years so that it is now worth more than the death tax floor. Yes, Maw and Paw's farm is apparently in Brooklyn or maybe San Francisco. Maw and Paw die and their children can't afford to pay the taxes and keep this farm that's been in their family for generations and generations. This is a TRAVESTY that must be avoided at all costs.
posted by gatorae at 4:40 PM on August 8, 2016 [3 favorites]


From "Why Donald Trump Appeals to Evangelicals: A look at the long history of “Christian libertarianism” in the United States":

In his telling, a good Christian goes to heaven; a bad one goes to hell. A good capitalist makes profit, a bad one goes to the poorhouse. In both systems, individuals rise on their own merits.

This is not a good summary of traditional conservative Protestant soteriology.
posted by tivalasvegas at 4:44 PM on August 8, 2016 [8 favorites]


tivalasvegas: "In his telling, a good Christian goes to heaven; a bad one goes to hell."

I hope that in one of the debates, someone asks Trump, "As a Christian, what sins do you struggle with?" I'm genuinely curious to know what his answer would be.

Edit: Okay, I didn't actually read the link, and now I see that that quote was not referencing Trump. Just wanted to acknowledge that here so it doesn't cause future confusion.
posted by roll truck roll at 4:46 PM on August 8, 2016 [3 favorites]


That's how my paw paw lost his mayonnaise farm.
posted by guiseroom at 4:47 PM on August 8, 2016 [17 favorites]


This is not a good summary of traditional conservative Protestant soteriology

yeah, it notably excludes Calvinism and its descendants. "not by works", etc.
posted by murphy slaw at 4:48 PM on August 8, 2016 [1 favorite]


gatorae I remember that was how the "estate tax" was turned into the "death duty." I also remember that when George Steinbrenner died he died conveniently at a moment when the inheritance tax had been allowed to lapse by congress. His heirs saved $600 million.
posted by Secret Life of Gravy at 4:49 PM on August 8, 2016


I hope that in one of the debates, someone asks Trump, "As a Christian, what sins do you struggle with?" I'm genuinely curious to know what his answer would be.

"I just keep winning. I win so much, God is tired of me winning. He says to me, Donald, enough with the winning already."
posted by murphy slaw at 4:51 PM on August 8, 2016 [15 favorites]


Of all the Gods that don't talk to Trump, I think Yahweh doesn't talk to him the most.
posted by maggiepolitt at 4:56 PM on August 8, 2016 [6 favorites]


Their farm has been in their family for generations. Maw and Paw don't have a lot of cash but they eek out an honest existence. Maw and Paw's farm has increased in value over the years so that it is now worth more than the death tax floor. Yes, Maw and Paw's farm is apparently in Brooklyn or maybe San Francisco. Maw and Paw die and their children can't afford to pay the taxes and keep this farm that's been in their family for generations and generations. This is a TRAVESTY that must be avoided at all costs.

This is pretty damn ignorant. An acre of top quality farmland in Indiana runs over $9k. For an individual that equates to about 600 acres or about 1200 for a married couple. That is ignoring all of the extremely expensive specialized equipment that modern grain farmers need.

Does 600 acres sound like a lot? It's not. In fact it would be a small farm and you would have a hard time living solely off of that. 1200 is a moderate sized farm. Si it is indeed very easy for a farm to surpass the inheritance tax threshold. By the way, neither previous scenario is a situation where the inheritance would lead to a wealthy lifestyle - not if you wanted to be a farmer.

Because of this, estate planning is an important consideration for farm families. Continue to support an inheritance tax if you think it is necessary, but try to actually consider the ramifications before spouting off.
posted by nolnacs at 5:02 PM on August 8, 2016 [11 favorites]


Yes, if you own one of the 0.8% of farms that would make you eligible to pay the estate tax, you should definitely plan your legacy accordingly.
posted by TheWhiteSkull at 5:07 PM on August 8, 2016 [93 favorites]


I just saw all of the related posts. From 2000. Why are we even *pretending* there's a third choice?
posted by steady-state strawberry at 5:12 PM on August 8, 2016 [1 favorite]


"They’re scared," Ivanka Trump said of her father's harshest critics. "They never thought that he’d be where he is."
I wish that was a TV clip. I'd love to see an ad that said "Even Ivanka Trump thinks Americans are scared of her father!"

Except as a signalling gesture to a small subset of "very serious" people, I fail to see the point of seeking Henry's approval in any way, shape, or form. I wish she wouldn't do that. OTOH, Charlie Fuckin' Manson could endorse her and she'd still probably get my vote. (Now putting him in her cabinet might give me pause.)
posted by octobersurprise at 5:14 PM on August 8, 2016


I live in a very rural area with some very big farms. Trust me that I say nearly everyone around here has considered the ramifications and isn't "spouting off." A $5M/$10M inheritance puts a family solidly in the top handful percent of wealth in this country.
posted by introp at 5:16 PM on August 8, 2016 [6 favorites]


Re: 'Fail Trucks'

"GUNS KILL hippies"

makes me feel sick whenever I see it
posted by sallybrown at 5:16 PM on August 8, 2016 [2 favorites]


Was told today ALL the polls are by corporations who want Clinton so they can sell more bombs for war. Wait. No Crooked Hillary I mean. ( yeah there are still bitter Sanders supporters out there )
posted by 922257033c4a0f3cecdbd819a46d626999d1af4a at 5:21 PM on August 8, 2016


So Larry Klayman crawled out from under his rock to sue Clinton for Patricia Smith and Charles Woods.

Apparently Klayman missed the classes in law school regarding qualified immunity. How the fuck has he not been disbarred after a decade of this shit?
posted by Talez at 5:23 PM on August 8, 2016 [1 favorite]


The "family farm" argument is always trotted out about the estate tax. First, the exemption, without any estate planning, is over $10 million for a couple. I'm not completely unsympathetic to someone who wants to pass their $10M asset onto their children and considers the estate tax a high price to pay, but it's a pretty bad reason to repeal the tax for every hereditary millionaire that's never been on a farm in their life. Not to mention that if you're sitting on a $10 million asset and you find it difficult to make a living, you just might want to get out of the farming business, no matter how much we need farmers as a society. At the end of the day, a $10M farm, even if it's the family farm, is just another asset, and anybody who owns it is, in fact, extremely wealthy, even if, unfortunately, it's not generating much profit for them.

And then there are a bunch of special exemptions for farmers, such as allowing heirs to pay the taxes off over 15 years at low interest rates (and interest only for the first five years).

Lastly, remember that the basis on the farm is stepped up when it is inherited too. As I understand it, you can buy a farm (or other asset) for $1 million, have it appreciate in value to $5 million, pass it on to your kids with no taxes paid, and they can then sell it without paying any capital gains too.

Maybe there's an argument for some tweaks so nobody has to sell a chunk of the family farm, but we're getting to the point where you want to create national tax policy to give a break to maybe a dozen or two people a year, and that gets harrowing quickly.
posted by zachlipton at 5:25 PM on August 8, 2016 [56 favorites]


How the fuck has he not been disbarred after a decade of this shit?

I mean, Orly Taitz has never been disbarred, either.
posted by octobersurprise at 5:27 PM on August 8, 2016 [1 favorite]


guys guys what if it's not really about farms? what if the farms thing is just a specious cover story?
posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 5:28 PM on August 8, 2016 [83 favorites]


I live in a very rural area with some very big farms. Trust me that I say nearly everyone around here has considered the ramifications and isn't "spouting off." A $5M/$10M inheritance puts a family solidly in the top handful percent of wealth in this country

And I grew up on a farm in rural Indiana [hence my example]. I know how the local farmers live and while they have a great deal of wealth in land, they are not living a luxurious lifestyle.

And farmland prices have increased dramatically in the past decade which would push some of the medium sized family farms into estate tax area.

Yes, if you own one of the 0.8% of farms that would make you eligible to pay the estate tax, you should definitely plan your legacy accordingly.

I would like to know how many of these are full time farmers vs hobby farmers. I know of a lot of them in the area where I grew up. Maybe 20 acres raising horses or cattle. It's not exactly the same thing. Unfortunately, the link doesn't go into details on the breakdown.
posted by nolnacs at 5:30 PM on August 8, 2016


Does 600 acres sound like a lot? It's not. In fact it would be a small farm and you would have a hard time living solely off of that. 1200 is a moderate sized farm.

This is wildly false. Wildly. Take a look at Figure 1 in this report from the USDA (pdf): in 2011, just over half (51.5%) of farms are less than 50 acres; nearly 9 out of 10 (88.9% of) farms are less than 500 acres; and 94.5% are less than 1,000 acres.

As with other kinds of inequality in America, most of the cropland is on a very few farms: the largest 2.2% of farms have 34.3% of the acreage. But the typical family farm -- by any reasonable measure of "typical" -- is smaller than 1,000 acres and unlikely to face any inheritance tax.

And as with other kinds of inequality, it has gotten worse and is getting worse. (Compare Figures 1 and 2 in the linked report.)

Moreover, as the section titled "Continuing Advantages to Size in Crop Farming" makes clear: larger farms have serious financial advantages over smaller farms. So, if you are fortunate enough to actually face an inheritance tax, it is likely that you have made significant money already and can well afford the tax.
posted by Jonathan Livengood at 5:30 PM on August 8, 2016 [64 favorites]


is the klayman lawsuit likely to ever see an initial hearing or will the filing be summarily dismissed due to qualified immunity?

(if you're like me and didn't know what qualified immunity is, it's the doctrine that says that federal officials can't be held liable for conducting the duties of thier office, basically)
posted by murphy slaw at 5:34 PM on August 8, 2016


is the klayman lawsuit likely to ever see an initial hearing or will the filing be summarily dismissed due to qualified immunity?

It looks like they did put a defamation claim in there to see if they can get it to survive summary judgement.
posted by Talez at 5:36 PM on August 8, 2016


I'm not completely unsympathetic to someone who wants to pass their $10M asset onto their children and considers the estate tax a high price to pay

I am. Fuck 'em. Assets are fungible, and if you're leaving $5/10M+ in assets congratulations you were filthy fucking rich and should be treated like other filthy rich fuckers.

I know how the local farmers live and while they have a great deal of wealth in land, they are not living a luxurious lifestyle.

Honestly, if you have $5 million plus in productive assets and can't make a living with them, that's just God's way of telling you to do something else for a living. You know, like everyone who isn't a farmer has to do when the economy shifts away from what they were doing.
posted by ROU_Xenophobe at 5:37 PM on August 8, 2016 [47 favorites]


It's actually not any more okay to discriminate based on national origin than on religion

Well, while I mostly agree with you, the US has done this forever. It definitely does it today. Whereas there is currently no religious-based immigration policy that I am aware of.
posted by thefoxgod at 5:37 PM on August 8, 2016


Obviously everyone is opposed to the estate tax just in case they have some rich distant relative they're not aware of who somehow has no one else to will their estate to.

Clearly the only thing to do is to set up a system to waive the inheritance tax if and only if the beneficiaries can last a full night in a haunted house.
posted by ckape at 5:40 PM on August 8, 2016 [16 favorites]


Honestly, if you have $5 million plus in productive assets and can't make a living with them, that's just God's way of telling you to do something else for a living. You know, like everyone who isn't a farmer has to do when the economy shifts away from what they were doing.

On the one hand, I want to agree with you.

On the other hand, I want to be able to buy a loaf of bread for less than $23.
posted by dersins at 5:41 PM on August 8, 2016 [14 favorites]


This is wildly false. Wildly. Take a look at Figure 1 in this report from the USDA (pdf): in 2011, just over half (51.5%) of farms are less than 50 acres; nearly 9 out of 10 (88.9% of) farms are less than 500 acres; and 94.5% are less than 1,000 acres

You are right. I over generalized based on my experience with grain farming. Many other types of farms are much smaller - such as fruit & vegetable farms.
posted by nolnacs at 5:42 PM on August 8, 2016 [4 favorites]


the estate tax will ruin the adventure game industry if estranged uncles can no longer leave spooky houses full of elaborate machinery to their nephews without government interference
posted by murphy slaw at 5:42 PM on August 8, 2016 [22 favorites]


Unless I'm missing something, the estate tax only applies to the portion above the $5/10 million. If you can't manage that, perhaps the land can be put to better use.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 5:44 PM on August 8, 2016 [5 favorites]


> On the one hand, I want to agree with you.

On the other hand, I want to be able to buy a loaf of bread for less than $23.
posted by dersins at 5:41 PM on August 8 [+] [!]


shoot if it's that hard to grow food at a profit we might as well just go ahead and nationalize the farms i guess.
posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 5:44 PM on August 8, 2016 [30 favorites]


Rush's core audience is people who a) own farms b) know people who own farms or c) have a vested interest in funding propaganda idealizing small farm owners as a stalking horse for policies that reduce taxes owed on their $450 million hedge fund.

This isn't that hard.
posted by T.D. Strange at 5:45 PM on August 8, 2016 [16 favorites]


I mean you're not wrong. Grain farming is clearly a low margin business, especially at current prices, which is how the big players make it work: huge farms mean bigger economies of scale. But it's hard for me to get away from the judgement that if you're sitting on a $10M asset and can't make a living with it, you already are effectively a hobbyist and ought to take the cash, buy yourself a $1M home with cash, and come up with something else to do with the remaining $8-9M or so. What's the argument against that?
posted by zachlipton at 5:51 PM on August 8, 2016 [9 favorites]


c) have a vested interest in funding propaganda idealizing small farm owners as a stalking horse for policies that reduce taxes owed on their $450 million hedge fund.

I have no idea who listens to Rush Limbaugh, but my assumption has tended to be that it isn’t people on Wall Street - especially given the relatively small number of people in the 1% relative to the vast size of his audience. Could well be wrong, though.
posted by Going To Maine at 5:51 PM on August 8, 2016


I thought Rush's core audience was nerds.
posted by kirkaracha at 5:56 PM on August 8, 2016 [2 favorites]


He's back, baby!
Many people are saying that the Iranians killed the scientist who helped the U.S. because of Hillary Clinton's hacked emails.
Note that this was debunked today at noon, long before Donald tweeted.
posted by sallybrown at 5:58 PM on August 8, 2016 [4 favorites]




Of course inheritance tax is one of the few taxes which encourages people to spend money so you'd think the trickle-down people would be all in favor of that.

Almost as if they're not actually concerned with driving the economy and actually only want to hoard their wealth and avoid contributing their share
posted by ckape at 6:00 PM on August 8, 2016 [6 favorites]




But it's hard for me to get away from the judgement that if you're sitting on a $10M asset and can't make a living with it, you already are effectively a hobbyist and ought to take the cash, buy yourself a $1M home with cash, and come up with something else to do with the remaining $8-9M or so. What's the argument against that?

Cashing out that $10 million asset means you need someone to buy it. The parts of the country under till for grain production are not always hotbeds of development -- you might be able to sell a quarter or a section to a neighbor who's financially in the same boat but just a little bit more stubborn.

My family is going to be in the same boat in 20-30 years willing. On paper it's a $2 million estate but $1.9 million of that is in dirt no one wants to buy.
posted by nathan_teske at 6:01 PM on August 8, 2016 [1 favorite]



My family is going to be in the same boat in 20-30 years willing. On paper it's a $2 million estate but $1.9 million of that is in dirt no one wants to buy.


That's still 80 grand more than most see in a year.
posted by 922257033c4a0f3cecdbd819a46d626999d1af4a at 6:06 PM on August 8, 2016 [5 favorites]


Oh absolutely -- it's a windfall that's three generations in the making, all started by getting the land practically for free.
posted by nathan_teske at 6:09 PM on August 8, 2016 [2 favorites]



I mean you're not wrong. Grain farming is clearly a low margin business, especially at current prices, which is how the big players make it work: huge farms mean bigger economies of scale. But it's hard for me to get away from the judgement that if you're sitting on a $10M asset and can't make a living with it, you already are effectively a hobbyist and ought to take the cash, buy yourself a $1M home with cash, and come up with something else to do with the remaining $8-9M or so. What's the argument against that?

Family tradition. It is hard for people to give up the farm that had been in their family for 150+ years - in my family's case since 1844. [As a side note, my family's farm will not exceed the estate tax threshold].

In any case, if you have a farm worth $10M, then you are generally making a living - just not the kind that people would expect from you having that kind of wealth. Which as you point out is a justification for doing something else.

By the way, thank you for the well reasoned argument in favor of the estate tax and farming.
posted by nolnacs at 6:09 PM on August 8, 2016 [6 favorites]


If it's a $2 million estate... it's exempt.
posted by Hairy Lobster at 6:09 PM on August 8, 2016 [8 favorites]


On paper it's a $2 million estate but $1.9 million of that is in dirt no one wants to buy.

It's not subject to the estate tax, so no worries there. Rent it to someone looking to expand without incurring estate problems themselves.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 6:10 PM on August 8, 2016 [5 favorites]


One very easy fix to the tax to address the problem of having most of the value of an estate in land that isn't easy to sell quickly would be to let people pay the relevant tax by turning over to the government some percentage of the land itself. So (simplifying a lot of the details and rounding), if you have, say 2,500 acres worth $25 million, and you owe 40% tax on 2,000 of those acres that make the value go over the $5 million floor, then instead of needing dollars on hand, you could give back 800 acres to the government and keep a 1700 acre estate without paying any actual dollars to the government. The government should have a relatively easy time sitting on the property until it can be sold.
posted by Jonathan Livengood at 6:12 PM on August 8, 2016 [5 favorites]


Estate tax facts

Since we were talking about toxic masculinity: Trump Is a Climax of American Masculinity, from the Atlantic

Also from The Atlantic, a pretty detailed piece about the white underclass.
To zero in on the white underclass in or near slaveholding areas is, understandably, to dwell on the fraught dynamic between poor whites and enslaved African Americans ... But there were whole other swaths of the country where many poor whites lived without any blacks nearby to speak of—not least the broad expanse of Appalachia. ....

In Appalachia, that homogeneity, along with the region’s populist tradition, helps explain why white voters there took so much longer to flip from Democrat to Republican than in the Deep South. This does not mean that racism is absent in these areas—far from it. But it suggests that the racism is fueled as much by suspicion of the “other” as it is by firsthand experience of blacks and competition with them—and that political sentiment on issues such as welfare and crime isn’t as racially motivated as many liberal analysts assume.
It kinda seems like he finds ten ways to say "it's not actually about race" without once mentioning the real racial animus that is actually happening
posted by Rainbo Vagrant at 6:13 PM on August 8, 2016 [3 favorites]


For comparison, death duty (sorry, inheritance tax) in the UK is far more onerous - 40% of the value of estates over £325,000, or 36% if at least 10% of the estate is given to charity. Given that the average house value in England is about that, you can see that you lot have got it very, very easy.

But the nation isn't up in arms about it; there are various things you can do with some planning to transfer your assets to your kids over time, there are a bunch of exemptions and I think the major injustice is that people who are very wealthy can afford to really go to town to manage avoidance - it's the people who've got few liquid assets and a modest home who'll end up paying the most.

My parents haven't got two pennies to rub together, have never owned property, and have been eBaying their knick-nacks for gin money. and I'll get the square root of nothing when they go. I'm very pro inheritance tax. My best friend's parents bought extremely well in the 1960s, and their Hampstead house (so un-hip at the time, a science fiction author owned it) is now worth a squad-oodle. We are very alike in almost every respect of class, income, education, politics and life-view, but he is extremely anti inheritance tax. I don't think that any moral or ethical dimension exists sufficient to shift most people from their own immediate experience when it comes to this, so it's a purely political matter of what you can get away with.
posted by Devonian at 6:14 PM on August 8, 2016 [18 favorites]


Devonian,

Feynman was a great man but he does have at least one thing in common with Trump: they're both really misogynist & into sexual harassment. So he can't be the anti-Trump, sorry!
posted by adrienneleigh at 6:15 PM on August 8, 2016 [9 favorites]


GOP Senator Susan Collins will not vote for Trump.
posted by chris24 at 6:15 PM on August 8, 2016 [38 favorites]


I don't approve this message:
NAMBLA Becomes Donald Trump’s Birther Moment

But, schadenfreude and all that ...
posted by Joe in Australia at 6:19 PM on August 8, 2016 [4 favorites]


From Senator Collins' WaPo: Some will say that as a Republican I have an obligation to support my party’s nominee. I have thought long and hard about that, for being a Republican is part of what defines me as a person. I revere the history of my party, most particularly the value it has always placed on the worth and dignity of the individual, and I will continue to work across the country for Republican candidates. It is because of Mr. Trump’s inability and unwillingness to honor that legacy that I am unable to support his candidacy.
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 6:24 PM on August 8, 2016 [8 favorites]


Oh, not just that - they both have/had yuge egos too, albeit with different structures. Yuge!

But particles and anti-particles can share properties like mass and spin, they're not mirrors in all (or even most) respects. You still wouldn't want them in the same space at the same time. Unless you enjoyed fireworks.
posted by Devonian at 6:26 PM on August 8, 2016 [1 favorite]


NAMBLA Becomes Donald Trump’s Birther Moment

It does explain why he doesn't use email or have a computer on his desk, because the various settlements with his victims forbid it, right?
posted by peeedro at 6:26 PM on August 8, 2016 [3 favorites]


I'm not saying its true but a lot of people are talking about it. A lot of smart people are saying things about it.
posted by Justinian at 6:26 PM on August 8, 2016 [24 favorites]


I am really looking forward to the debates, at this point. Hillary is going to rip Trump to shreds. I cannot wait to see what happens when he has to deal with her face-to-face, one-on-one, in real time, in front of the whole country rather than just an audience of screaming sycophants.

Whatever some people may think about Hillary, she is clearly brilliant. And careful, and experienced, and well-prepared. And there's no way she's gotten to where she is today without a ruthless streak a mile wide. She is going to destroy him in the debates, and it will be glorious.

We still haven't really seen her with her claws out. She and Bernie were being very gentle with each other during the primaries, and for that matter Sanders was a much tougher opponent, in the sense that a lot of what he had to say was actually true and not that far from Clinton's own positions, so it was more about drawing contrasts and highlighting nuances than just flat-out repudiating him. Trump is a monster and a buffoon by comparison.

You can see it in her eyes, you can see it in her smile. She's looking forward to this too.
posted by Anticipation Of A New Lover's Arrival, The at 6:30 PM on August 8, 2016 [61 favorites]


Looking around it appears that if the Trump and anti-Trump ever met, each weighing around 100 kg, the result would be a bang of around 5,000 megatons. That is in the ballpark of the total yield of all nuclear weapons in existence put together. So maybe that's where Trump came from?
posted by Bringer Tom at 6:37 PM on August 8, 2016 [3 favorites]


Man, I ended up falling down a bit of a rabbit hole following the Romney links. I had forgotten how purely delusional he was about his chances at the end of the 2012 campaign. His campaign was telling each other that Virginia was in the bag. Not "If we are very lucky in how the electorate turns out, we could get Virginia", but "Virginia is definitely ours, lets go campaign in Pennsylvania to extend our mandate when we are elected!"
posted by tavella at 6:37 PM on August 8, 2016 [2 favorites]


Mooski: "(I shit you not) eight-foot Confederate Battle Flag flying from the roll bars."

Tall, long or diagonally?

nathan_teske: "On paper it's a $2 million estate but $1.9 million of that is in dirt no one wants to buy."

If no one wants to buy it at 1.9 million it isn't worth 1.9 million.
posted by Mitheral at 6:46 PM on August 8, 2016 [16 favorites]


And those numbers are looking pretty good. Not fantastic, but pretty good.

FRED has a series called PAYEMS -- best title ever -- counting total jobs:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=6uau

I've added 75% of the age 15-64 population in red since that was the level the economy got in 1999, when we were at "full employment" more or less.

By this graph we have 144M jobs and around 154M people of working age (x 75%), for a notional shortage of 10M jobs compared to "full employment". It's probably higher since more age 65+ are working now compared to 2000.

The economy dumped 8M jobs during the recession.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=6uaB

shows that since 2000 we've lost 5M mfg jobs, since 2007 we've lost 1M construction jobs, and since Y2K we've lost 1M information jobs.
posted by Heywood Mogroot III at 6:46 PM on August 8, 2016 [2 favorites]


I know you guys have probably forgotten McMullin already, but...

I live in Utah and this guy may supposedly be the "standard bearer for Mormons" but...

- None of the local news outlets have mentioned his run AT ALL.
- I've never heard of him and none of the Mormons I know has either.
- Mormons won't vote for "any Mormon" over Trump. But they'll vote for Johnson apparently.
posted by mmoncur at 6:51 PM on August 8, 2016 [10 favorites]


Sigh. I feel bad for these parents but their lawsuit is like a mashup of right-wing talking points, including trying to link BENGHAZI and Emailgate (!?!).
posted by dhens at 6:52 PM on August 8, 2016 [3 favorites]


Honestly the family farm argument is total bullshit and everyone knows it's bullshit. The number of "family" farms actually impacted are really small and they tend to be in areas where land prices have dramatically changed in recent decades particularly in areas close to urban/suburban areas.

There is no god given right to hold the land of your forefathers forever especially as economic trends transform land from agricultural use to other uses. More often than not the farms that people are talking about tend to be extremely valuable land close to cities that family members want to hold onto until the maximum market value is achieved before selling to a developer.

Modern agriculture is indeed very capital intensive and the return on investment can be poor but exempting the land assets would just create all sorts of weird dynamics in the real estate market as people would park lots of money into non-productive land because of the tax sheltering capacity of it. In most cases it would be better for the inheritors to sell to the larger farms in the area in order to achieve better economies of scale.

We wouldn't typically dream of exempting a family owned factory from inheritance taxes so why do we want to privilege farms?

Just speculating of course IANAL but most "family" farms are also family run corporations (for liability reasons) so you can generally treat the farm part of the business as the corporation and treat the land part of the business as a familial assets for the purposes of estate planning and transferral.
posted by vuron at 6:53 PM on August 8, 2016 [14 favorites]


In the hysteria following the murder of a New Orleans police chief, 11 Italian-Americans were lynched by a vigilante mob angry about the city’s influx of immigrants. Here’s how the past and future of American nativism may not be that different.
Donald Trump’s entire candidacy has been premised on purging the United States of the foreign enemies within as a means of restoring national greatness. Among his most trusted surrogates are men like Paul Manafort, Chris Christie, and Rudy Giuliani, who now speak of Muslims and Mexicans in the same tone and language that was once reserved for their Italian-American ancestors, targeted by the nativist movement that began in the late 19th century.
But this incident — and the way the accompanying fervor was spread in the national press — helped define the character of Italian immigrants for Americans for generations, providing proof of their fundamental dangerousness for the anti-immigrant backlash that followed.
posted by the man of twists and turns at 6:54 PM on August 8, 2016 [17 favorites]


The Charlie Pierce piece that mentions Kissinger is reacting to Clinton's troubling use of her connections to Kissinger to give herself gravitas. This and her speeches to big investment banks are in large part what pushed me to vote Sanders in the primary. I am gung-ho Clinton now; I even added the H-arrow overlay to my Facebook profile pic. Still, from now on, I hope Clinton will avoid trying to tie herself to Kissinger to show that she is "serious."
posted by dhens at 6:55 PM on August 8, 2016 [6 favorites]


She is going to destroy him in the debates, and it will be glorious.

See, though, even here I am still pretty sure that the Trump supporters are going to do all sorts of mental gymnastics to explain all that away, and we're going to see all sorts of Monday-morning quarterbacking about how Hillary was too shrill/emotional/unemotional/bitchy/direct/indirect/talked circularly/concentrated on things that didn't matter/didn't concentrate enough/concentrated too much on one point/was too egg-heady/used too many fancy words/didn't sound smart enough/looked ugly, and do you want someone like that, or someone like our boy Trump who's reg'lar folk like us?

Trump himself isn't the only danger. The fact that Trump nevertheless has supporters, despite the defcon-1 level warning signs, that's the real danger.

You can't just kill the weed at the head, you have to also pay attention to the roots. Or at least acknowledge that they're a concern.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 7:02 PM on August 8, 2016 [25 favorites]


Another way to look at it is examining federal corporate taxes as a share of the U.S. economy

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=6uaR

effective corporate tax rate since 1950
posted by Heywood Mogroot III at 7:08 PM on August 8, 2016 [2 favorites]


I'd be happy if Kissinger endorsed Hillary. I think it's important to have as little public support for Donald as possible. Every name that goes to her side is a repudiation of Trump, even when that support is coming from a scoundrel.
posted by Joe in Australia at 7:19 PM on August 8, 2016 [4 favorites]


I already knew Trump was a Saddam Hussein fan, but I missed his December take on Hussein's use of chemical weapons during the Iran-Iraq War:
Saddam Hussein throws a little gas, everyone goes crazy, "oh he's using gas!" [@1:08:02]
Iran Still Haunted and Influenced By Chemical Weapons Attacks: "...Iran suffered more than 50,000 casualties from Iraq’s repeated use of nerve agents and toxic gases in the 1980s."
posted by kirkaracha at 7:22 PM on August 8, 2016 [6 favorites]


Not for nothing, but I've ridden the fences on a 600 acre ranch. That's about enough to graze a 100 head of cattle, assuming it rains. That didn't happen for a few years, and pretty much everyone sold off their herds. There's a metric fuckton of farms in the 600_1200 acre range in west Texas, and y'all, ain't nary of em worth enough to tax. Most of them survive only because of government programs. And yet, and yet...you head over to the feed store, and you'll have a passel of old men in John Deere hats, with barely two bits to rub together, who will tell you that family farms are why we shouldn't pass a "death tax".

My point is this, the republicans have mastered messaging. They create semantic programming that is almost unstoppable. They really do create language virii that replicates and spreads and is almost impossible to kill.
posted by SecretAgentSockpuppet at 7:26 PM on August 8, 2016 [57 favorites]


You can't just kill the weed at the head, you have to also pay attention to the roots.

And the roots were there before Trump, before Reagan, before Nixon. Fortunately the roots are a limited subset of our population, not a majority anywhere on a state or national level.

The problem isn't the racist asshole fuckwits themselves, it's the major political party which decided in the 1960's that they would be useful idiots to give them votes while they looted the country. They legitimized the racist asshole fuckwits and gave their idols respectability and a national megaphone. Meanwhile the racist asshole fuckwits obediently voted for people who claimed trickle down would make them rich while they neck-stomped the enemy of the week.

The problem for the Republicans is that the racist asshole fuckwits were never on their own enough to give them the majorities they needed, but they are enthusiastic to an extent most voter aren't, and after years of hinting at it they finally rose up and took over what they came to regard as their party. So now it's kind of up in the air whether the old guard takes it back and the Republicans have to admit they are the party of old self-centered money or they are driven out by the racist asshole fuckwits by the power of the primary that was supposed to be engineered to prevent such a tragically democratic result.

However it shakes out, maybe the rich businesspeople angling to protect their tax breaks will think twice before making such a faustian deal again. Oh wait, who the fuck am I kidding.
posted by Bringer Tom at 7:28 PM on August 8, 2016 [12 favorites]


I'd be happy if Kissinger endorsed Hillary. I think it's important to have as little public support for Donald as possible. Every name that goes to her side is a repudiation of Trump, even when that support is coming from a scoundrel.

I think that the populations of Chile, Bangladesh, Cambodia, and East Timor would use words much stronger than "scoundrel" to describe Kissinger. I would prefer it if Clinton didn't mention Kissinger at all, and if Kissinger, failing any accountability for his actions, kept silent this election. His endorsement would seem to validate some of the hardcore Berners' concerns about Clinton.
posted by dhens at 7:39 PM on August 8, 2016 [38 favorites]


All the talk about Rush Limbaugh earlier got me thinking about Infinite Jest and how Donald Trump is basically Johnny Gentle in a lot of ways just more unpredictable and dangerous.

Did David know all along?
posted by guiseroom at 7:39 PM on August 8, 2016 [2 favorites]


I mean it's been a while since I've read IJ but basically Trump and Johnny Gentle are similar in that they're both cartoonish hyperexaggerations of Reagan. Who was himself a cartoonish hyperexaggeration, so, y'know. we're living in weird times.

Also the experialist scheme from Infinite Jest makes way more sense than Trump's wall.
posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 7:47 PM on August 8, 2016 [4 favorites]


Still, from now on, I hope Clinton will avoid trying to tie herself to Kissinger to show that she is "serious."

And hey, Reince Priebus still hopes that Donald Trump can turn into a Serious Candidate. People can change, you know! Reboot XIV
posted by indubitable at 7:51 PM on August 8, 2016


Why does Kissinger have to endorse anybody? Why do we even have to ask him?


Why can't he just lie down and die somewhere? I'm sure Margaret and Augusto are saving him a bunk.
posted by TheWhiteSkull at 7:56 PM on August 8, 2016 [22 favorites]




His endorsement would seem to validate some of the hardcore Berners' concerns about Clinton.

The thing about democracy is (and we've been explaining this to the sulking Bernie crowd since the day he stopped his campaign), it doesn't matter why you vote for someone, just that you do. If Kissinger were to get Clinton another four votes in South Carolina, then by God, I want Kissinger's endorsement. If an Ouija board channelling the ghost of Hitler (just to Godwinize this line of thought immediately) were to get Clinton another two votes in Georgia, then start a seance.

Winner-take-all politics aren't about purity. Hardcore Bernie supporters seem unable to grasp this. Quite frankly, I don't think we're going to win them over, and I'm not sure why anyone should be treating anything they say as anything other than purposeful derailment.
posted by steady-state strawberry at 8:04 PM on August 8, 2016 [9 favorites]


Their farm has been in their family for generations. Maw and Paw don't have a lot of cash but they eek out an honest existence.

On stolen land. If we want to get into the question of issues of justice and fairness w/r/t intergenerational land tenure, I know some Native Americans who would like their inheritances back.
posted by spitbull at 8:06 PM on August 8, 2016 [42 favorites]


My family is going to be in the same boat in 20-30 years willing. On paper it's a $2 million estate but $1.9 million of that is in dirt no one wants to buy.

I mean, uh, then it ain't worth dirt, friend.
posted by odinsdream at 8:07 PM on August 8, 2016 [1 favorite]


In any other year, I would be side-eyeing the hell out of all these Republican and right wing endorsements, up to and including Kissinger. It would reflect badly on Clinton, absolutely. HOWEVER, it's important to remember that

a) This year is exceptional. The Republican candidate is quite literally a madman. Endorsements right now are mainly just indicating "I would like to not die in a nuclear wasteland."
b) Hillary has no control over who endorses her. Some people she courts but others just show up in the WSJ op-ed with their endorsement. No one needs her permission to endorse her.

So, while I might wish that some people who are endorsing her would just quietly pull the lever in November and not shoot their mouth off about it ahead of time because it does definitely look bad if you forget for a second what the alternative is, I'm not going to be sweating bullets over it.
posted by soren_lorensen at 8:13 PM on August 8, 2016 [27 favorites]


Senator Susan Collins: "I will not be voting for Donald Trump for president"
posted by chrchr at 8:15 PM on August 8, 2016 [1 favorite]


okay but what happens if trump endorses her
posted by murphy slaw at 8:15 PM on August 8, 2016 [12 favorites]



I mean you're not wrong. Grain farming is clearly a low margin business, especially at current prices, which is how the big players make it work: huge farms mean bigger economies of scale.


Seems y'all are forgetting that corporate farms are immortal, and therefore never subject to estate tax.

Meaning once market forces push the typical farm size up to where inheritance tax kicks in, they also immediately push the typical farm over to become a corporate plantation.

Obviously that happens quickly with cereal farms, owing to the large acreage.

But I would not be surprised if it happens quickly with orchards too. Once those acres are productive, I 'spect their value per acre shoots up.
posted by ocschwar at 8:16 PM on August 8, 2016 [3 favorites]


Hillary has never been one to merely win. She wants to run up the score against Trump. So she'll go get Kissinger's endorsement if it brings along the conservative, realpolitik sorts that are Trump-shy.

The South is in play. Texas is potentially in play. The House and Senate are in play. She could potentially destroy the GOP as we know it. If it takes getting our favorite warmonger and Ironic Nobel Peace Prize Winner's endorsement, she'll do it.
posted by dw at 8:17 PM on August 8, 2016 [11 favorites]


>>My family is going to be in the same boat in 20-30 years willing. On paper it's a $2 million estate but $1.9 million of that is in dirt no one wants to buy.

I mean, uh, then it ain't worth dirt, friend.


Some of it can just be that supply and demand for farmland are irregular. So there's only a buyer every three years, but he's willing to pay $2million because there's hardly anyone selling. If you can find one or more buyers, you'll get that much money, but there are long stretches of time when there are zero buyers.
posted by Blue Jello Elf at 8:20 PM on August 8, 2016



Hillary has never been one to merely win. She wants to run up the score against Trump. So she'll go get Kissinger's endorsement if it brings along the conservative, realpolitik sorts that are Trump-shy.

The South is in play. Texas is potentially in play. The House and Senate are in play. She could potentially destroy the GOP as we know it. If it takes getting our favorite warmonger and Ironic Nobel Peace Prize Winner's endorsement, she'll do it.


She's a politician, not a kryptonian. Let's not get overconfident.
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 8:25 PM on August 8, 2016 [9 favorites]


A very wealthy Scottish gentleman I heard of once had the same issue when he went to sell his 1916 quarter.
posted by yhbc at 8:26 PM on August 8, 2016 [9 favorites]


Clinton's opponent has been endorsed by David Duke, Vladimir Putin, and Kim-Jong Un, and hasn't bothered to disavow any of them. I'm not going to freak out too much if Kissinger supports Clinton.
posted by mmoncur at 8:35 PM on August 8, 2016 [35 favorites]


Many people say Trump excels at beach volleyball.
posted by sallybrown at 8:36 PM on August 8, 2016 [4 favorites]


A very wealthy Scottish gentleman I heard of once had the same issue when he went to sell his 1916 quarter.

i am in awe of this, the deepest of pulls
posted by murphy slaw at 8:38 PM on August 8, 2016 [4 favorites]


Clinton accepts three debate invitations:
"It is concerning that the Trump campaign is already engaged in shenanigans around these debates," said Podesta. "It is not clear if he is trying to avoid debates, or merely toying with the press to create more drama."

Said Podesta: "Either way, our campaign is not interested in playing along with a debate about debates or bargaining around them. The only issue now is whether Donald Trump is going to show up to debate at the date, times, places and formats set by the commission last year through a bipartisan process. We will accept the commission's invitation and expect Donald Trump to do the same."
posted by kirkaracha at 8:41 PM on August 8, 2016 [20 favorites]


Hannity ran segments trying to smear Khizr Khan and spread the "Hillary has parkinsons" meme tonight, which seems a bit out there even for his astoundingly low standards. If this keeps up he'll be well into Alex Jones territory before the election is over.
posted by murphy slaw at 8:45 PM on August 8, 2016 [11 favorites]


No, but Clinton should be playing up the fact that she's got supporters from Susan Collins to Tim Kane to Bernie Sanders, all of whom represent vastly different segments of the electorate, all of are respected by their supporters (and more-or-less non-toxic to everybody else), and all of whom are former opponents of Clinton herself.

Who is Clinton trying to win over by supporting Kissinger? What does she stand to lose?

This irked me during the primaries, and it irks me now. For all the reputation that Hillary has for being a cold, calculating politician, her relationship with Kissinger always seemed brazenly tone-deaf. It plays into all of the worst stereotypes about her governing philosophy, and seems unlikely to win her any votes (apart from Henry Kissinger's, I guess).

Clinton's (inspired) VP selection, and presentation at the DNC wiped away any remaining doubts about having her as president. I am enthusiastically campaigning for her, not simply because she's a lesser-evil, but because I think that she will be an excellent president.

But her continued public relationship with Henry Kissinger continues to be a huge, inexplicable WTF.
posted by schmod at 8:45 PM on August 8, 2016 [17 favorites]


I suppose it's too early yet to bust out with, "Awwwwww, is widdle Donnie scared? Are his wee tiny hands shaking cuz he's so scared of 'Crooked' Hillary? Is he a chicken? We think he's a chicken. BAWWWNK BAWWWK BAWWWK DONNIE'S A CHICKEN."
posted by yasaman at 8:46 PM on August 8, 2016 [5 favorites]



Whatever some people may think about Hillary, she is clearly brilliant. And careful, and experienced, and well-prepared. And there's no way she's gotten to where she is today without a ruthless streak a mile wide. She is going to destroy him in the debates, and it will be glorious.


Eh, I dunno. You could have said the same of Obama, or Romeny; neither destroyed the other. Obama didn't destroy McCain. Beat, sure, destroy, no. When people talk about Presidential debates they still bring up Lloyd Benson's You're no JFK line or Reagan's There You Go Again. These things happenned 30 and 40 years ago, ish. Nothing that's happenned in a Presidential debate since has been more interesting or memorable. People give careful, well-trained answers to questions they have by and large anticipated and prepped for. I certainly trust Clinton to anticipate and to prep. But to destroy...destroying would be something that's memorable and pithy and spontenous. Christie's attack on Rubio in the primaries had that quality, and Rubio's malfuctioning robot response did him in.

There's certainly a really strong chance of that, of Trump self-destructing in some way --- being caught off guard and unable to come up with an answer, going over the top in his response to something, losing his cool. I wouldn't bet on it not happenning. I would bet against Clinton being able to generate that, to instantly put a pin through him the way Christie did with Rubio. She's a contract lawyer, not a litagator --- careful with her clauses, plays excellent defense, knows the issues cold, down to the smallest detail --- but she's not light on her feet and she doesn't have that instinct for the jugular, the abilty to spot a weakness and exploit it immediately. Good prosecutors do. So do bullies, and Trump is the later. I think he'll try to goad her and (hopefully) find his hits can't make her jump; I think she'll try and goad him and be too slow to get her jabs in, he'll deflect with some nonesense and ramble off into a tangent of his own. And he's far better than her at coming up with pithy soundbites off the cuff, stuff that's plain English and memorable, instead of regurgitated bureaucratese.
posted by maggiepolitt at 8:46 PM on August 8, 2016 [16 favorites]


> Nothing that's happened in a Presidential debate since has been more interesting or memorable.

Please proceed.
posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 8:55 PM on August 8, 2016 [55 favorites]


Many people say Trump excels at beach volleyball.

Only time I've ever not outright loathed the man.

Don't ever do that again!
posted by Atom Eyes at 9:06 PM on August 8, 2016 [1 favorite]


She has already accepted the endorsement of Ironic Nobel Peace Prize winners: consider the speech that President Obama gave at the convention. It pains me to say it, but if I keep myself from being sentimental and look at this objectively, Kissinger's endorsement wouldn't be much worse on that basis alone. Such an endorsement arguably signals to the Right People, ultimately, that the arms deals will keep going, that the perpetual state of war we are in will continue more or less unimpeded. It's just business.
posted by a lungful of dragon at 9:11 PM on August 8, 2016 [2 favorites]


Manage expectations. Remember Obama's first debate with Romney.
posted by Devonian at 9:11 PM on August 8, 2016 [2 favorites]


Please proceed.

A big part of Trump's debate strategy will be to attack the moderator. See what he does to Larry King here; he'll make a dominance display to both forestall a Candy Crowley moment and, by creating conflict with the moderator, feed into the narrative of the media not treating him fairly.
posted by peeedro at 9:12 PM on August 8, 2016 [2 favorites]




posted by Devonian Manage expectations. Remember Obama's first debate with Romney.

Remember Gore's debate with Bush.
posted by mattdidthat at 9:21 PM on August 8, 2016 [4 favorites]


Oh, come on, a lungful of dragon. You really think Obama's endorsement is fundamentally equivalent to Kissinger's? Really? Obama is a quite popular sitting president, someone whose election was historic. Yes, there are people out there who have issues with his foreign policy, but it's easy for people across a broad swath of the political spectrum to find something to like about the man.

By contrast, in a word association game, many people with very middle-of-the-road political views hear "Kissinger" and blurt "war criminal." These endorsements may send the same message to some of the Right People, but they send a very different message to the average American left-wing voter.
posted by town of cats at 9:22 PM on August 8, 2016 [5 favorites]


My cousin is coming from a "terror affected" country to go to school in a few weeks. He's not Muslim but the trumpences don't care. What if some tragedy befalls my family and they can't come here to visit?
I have an upset stomach just thinking about it so I went to watch the election night coverage of the 2012 election just to feel a bit better.
posted by zutalors! at 9:24 PM on August 8, 2016 [4 favorites]


> Remember Gore's debate with Bush.

No, I put that entire campaign memory in a lockbox, and you can't make me take it out.
[Heavy sighs, amped up by mic.]
Got some wood?
posted by RedOrGreen at 9:24 PM on August 8, 2016 [11 favorites]


It Has Been 17 Months and Counting Since Donald Trump Last Took Off His Jacket
The funny thing is, there’s a side of Donald that not even [Marla] has seen. She has never seen him completely naked—at least almost never—because he won’t let her. Whenever they’re about to have sex, he makes her go into the bathroom while he gets undressed. As soon as he takes off his clothes, he jumps into the bed and pulls up the covers.
Paging Doctor Fünke. Paging Dr. Fünke. Please pick up the blue courtesy phone.
posted by schmod at 9:26 PM on August 8, 2016 [16 favorites]


Okay, I give up - can someone please explain the reference to the wealthy Scotsman and the 1916 quarter?
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 9:30 PM on August 8, 2016 [8 favorites]


Got some wood?

It's "need some wood".

Bush wasn't requesting your wood, he was offering to give his wood to you.
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 9:31 PM on August 8, 2016 [2 favorites]




Bush wasn't requesting your wood, he was offering to give his wood to you.

And boy howdy, did he ever!
posted by notyou at 9:37 PM on August 8, 2016 [5 favorites]


kirkaracha: If Clinton wins Iowa and Trump wins Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Mississippi, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, and Ohio, Clinton wins.

New Mexico isn't competitive, which is reassuring, because the local TV reporters are kind of rubbish tonight. "Hillary Clinton says she can improve the economy, but the Republican candidate, Donald Trump, disagrees." Gee, thanks for that balanced coverage.
posted by filthy light thief at 9:43 PM on August 8, 2016 [3 favorites]


By contrast, in a word association game, many people with very middle-of-the-road political views hear "Kissinger" and blurt "war criminal." These endorsements may send the same message to some of the Right People, but they send a very different message to the average American left-wing voter.

I see "war criminal", but I also see "opened door to China," "sealed the Sino-Soviet split and increased American leverage during the Cold War," and "pressured Rhodesia to drop white rule and allowed Zimbabwe to form."

Sure, with the former, he sold out Taiwan, but tbh, Taiwan is doing reasonably well for itself and now China has lifted hundreds of millions out of crushing poverty (and into enervating poverty, but it's still progress)

He does not have clean hands, no. But he is hardly the unadulterated evil people make him out to be.
posted by qcubed at 9:44 PM on August 8, 2016 [5 favorites]


also his dissertation on metternich was fascinating. but the dude's still a creep.
posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 9:45 PM on August 8, 2016 [1 favorite]


Not saying he's not a creep. I've found that a lot of IR realists are... odd in that regard.
posted by qcubed at 9:46 PM on August 8, 2016


I mean I guess the point is that on the whole Kissinger's spent his time on this godforsaken planet making it worse. The omelet he made was def not worth the eggs he cracked to make it.
posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 9:49 PM on August 8, 2016 [7 favorites]


for reals though the book he wrote about Metternich was some captivating — though at times you could sort of tell that he wanted to be done with writing for the day and go back to playing his favorite board game.
posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 9:53 PM on August 8, 2016


Qcubed, he organised the secret bombings in South East Asia of civilians who weren't at war. He's a war criminal who should be in jail, and I'm very surprised he hasn't been assassinated yet. He must have good personal security.
posted by dorothyisunderwood at 9:54 PM on August 8, 2016 [6 favorites]


New Mexico isn't competitive

Oh, I know! Just pointing out that Clinton would win if she wins Iowa even if Trump takes every other state the New York Times lists as competitive. She'll get most of them.
posted by kirkaracha at 9:55 PM on August 8, 2016


I mean, say what you want about the ethics of Henry Kissinger, at least he rocked his cameo in Steven Colbert's "Get Lucky" video.
"The best part with Kissinger is that Colbert's making that weird "jerking off in your face" dance move at him." -- mrgoat
posted by kirkaracha at 10:11 PM on August 8, 2016 [3 favorites]


Qcubed, he organised the secret bombings in South East Asia of civilians who weren't at war.

Well aware of this.

He's a war criminal who should be in jail,

No real disagreement here.

and I'm very surprised he hasn't been assassinated yet. He must have good personal security.

I could say the same about Trump. Or Dubya. Or... well, I suppose you get the picture.

I'm just saying, I'm not sure I'd agree with the whole argument that the man is "evil". I also don't know if I'd agree that the eggs, omletes, etc, are necessarily worse.

The Sino-Soviet split had some long-lasting repercussions, not all of which are bad, at least in certain frames. I'm not exactly crying here that the USSR is gone in part because of it, or that North Korea is down to one "ally" that barely tolerates it.

Then again, I'm not particularly interested in litigating this. Obviously a lot of people hate him, and others, such as myself, view him in a more complicated light; but, tbh, Kissinger's endorsement of Hillary is, in my eyes, a net gain.
posted by qcubed at 10:18 PM on August 8, 2016 [2 favorites]


If Clinton wins Iowa and Trump wins Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Mississippi, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, and Ohio, Clinton wins.

The NBC battleground has Clinton at 255, just on safe or heavily likely states. Sabato has 347 leaning Clinton. Absent a complete reversal in the basic election assumption, she's looking at stretch goals and how to ensure a wave election.

There's a non-zero chance she could win all of those. Plus maybe Missouri and Indiana. And that should be the Democrats' goal at this point. Trump's floor is something like 142 EC votes, winning only the high plains states, the unrepentant old confederacy, and Texas.
posted by T.D. Strange at 10:20 PM on August 8, 2016 [1 favorite]


Look guys, I love this landslide porn as much as anyone. But the election is 3 months away. Yeah, if we had it today, Clinton would win. But three months is a long time.
posted by great_radio at 10:26 PM on August 8, 2016 [37 favorites]


But three months is a long time

It's sure gonna feel like it
posted by aubilenon at 10:42 PM on August 8, 2016 [17 favorites]



Look guys, I love this landslide porn as much as anyone.


Polls plus looks like polls only! Polls only looks like the now cast! The now sat looks like a ridiculous strip of blue and a few pixels of red!

Theres 3 months to go, but it's quite a thing to see compared with a couple of weeks back.
posted by Artw at 10:46 PM on August 8, 2016 [3 favorites]


Oh, come on, a lungful of dragon. You really think Obama's endorsement is fundamentally equivalent to Kissinger's? Really?

No, but I think, unfortunately, we're in a grey area where we are probably past the point of being able to be upset at the prospects of a Kissinger endorsement. That's not so much a criticism of Hillary, Kissinger or Obama, but about our own complacency at our favored candidate getting a thumbs-up from a war criminal, whose actions have contributed to why the US is reviled globally, where he has contributed to foreign policy. I just think we do better voting with open eyes, I guess. Personal weakness.
posted by a lungful of dragon at 10:46 PM on August 8, 2016


Who is Clinton trying to win over by supporting Kissinger? What does she stand to lose?

Kissinger's going to come down on one side or the other because that's what he does: his career consists of making pronouncements on political subjects. A lot of people think of Kissinger as an elder statesman and I think it would be disastrous for Hillary if Kissinger endorsed Trump; the last thing she needs is an excuse for people to think that Trump can't be that bad. So by welcoming him, she neutralises him. That's the only benefit to her that I can see.
posted by Joe in Australia at 10:47 PM on August 8, 2016 [6 favorites]


Kissinger endorsing Trump, though... I don't see him doing that unless a
there's something in it for him. But what would that be? He's too old to take a fast paced job like SecState, and I don't see Trump actually listening to him.

The ideal state would be Kissinger staying neutral, but no one can make that decision but Kissinger.

Maybe the people are clamoring "Dear Mr. Kissinger: your fellow Repub'cans would like to know how you’ll be voting" but I don't hear that where I am.
posted by dw at 11:12 PM on August 8, 2016 [2 favorites]


Polls plus looks like polls only! Polls only looks like the now cast! The now sat looks like a ridiculous strip of blue and a few pixels of red!

This is good for bitcoin.
posted by Going To Maine at 11:19 PM on August 8, 2016 [4 favorites]


Uh, also, like it or not but not everyone thinks Kissinger is a horrible war criminal. Like a substantial number of people (some relatively well educated in politics and 20th century history, and many others that aren't), think of Kissinger as an elder statesman. If Kissinger is someone's "bridge too far" in supporting Hillary Clinton then (a) they don't have very much perspective, or (b) they were going to find some other reason not to vote for Clinton. Given the risk of a Trump presidency -- I doubt HRC is taking anything for granted, poll numbers or not -- getting one more senior dude that many see as "reasonable" to endorse you doesn't have a lot of downside. Reasonable people who may not like him are also likely to swallow their distaste.
posted by R343L at 11:23 PM on August 8, 2016 [13 favorites]


But three months is a long time.

trump and everything he stands for is horrifying and the terror he inflicts on me and most of the people i love is real and the people who nominated him should think long and hard about how they got to this point but lmfao if you think hillary is going to lose this
posted by edeezy at 11:31 PM on August 8, 2016 [3 favorites]


I'm sure that most people under 50 will think Kissinger is some sort of sexting app.
posted by Devonian at 11:51 PM on August 8, 2016 [40 favorites]


Devonian: but that's kind of my point. I think a large fraction of Americans are likely to hear the name "Kissinger" and have vaguely positive notions about him being a diplomat or something. It's just not much of anything other than maybe will get a little semi-positive press about how (yet another) conservative who doesn't think Trump would make a good president.
posted by R343L at 11:54 PM on August 8, 2016 [2 favorites]


I trust Hills at this point. Whatever she thinks can get her closer to the Oval Office, I'm for it.
posted by suburbanbeatnik at 12:07 AM on August 9, 2016 [4 favorites]


I think I'm seeing a weird tendency to attribute genius to whoever's ahead in the polls.

I saw it when Trump was winning the Republican primary. A lot of people were talking about his brilliant strategy. I sat there wondering what they were talking about, because the guy looked like an ignoramus who got lucky from where I was sitting.

I see it now when people are talking about Clinton. It sounds like she's got a great organization and ground game, which is huge, but she is sometimes not the best in the world at speechmaking, debating, or interviewing. None of that matters much to me, because I'm a policy voter and she's a policy wonk with policies I 90%+ like, but it matters to a lot of people. Her current lead comes mostly from her opponent imploding while she (admitted wisely) lets him.

Will she crush Trump in the debates? Maybe. Maybe not. As has been pointed out upthread, policy wonk vs. ignoramus debates have not always gone great for the policy wonk. If he self-destructs on stage, great. But there's a good chance he won't. There's some nonzero chance that she will. And the expectations game is going to be miserably lopsided this year.

I'm taking nothing for granted this year. I hope that the debates either improve Clinton's standing or simply don't matter. But I wouldn't assume either one.
posted by kyrademon at 1:16 AM on August 9, 2016 [34 favorites]


This Kissinger thread is hilarious. If you say his name three times in the mirror...

Kissinger and the Clintons literally actually spend Christmas together. If he endorses he's endorsing her unless there's some realpolitik chess move in endorsing Trump that I'm too dim to see.
posted by dis_integration at 4:44 AM on August 9, 2016 [2 favorites]


Uh, also, like it or not but not everyone thinks Kissinger is a horrible war criminal. Like a substantial number of people (some relatively well educated in politics and 20th century history, and many others that aren't), think of Kissinger as an elder statesman.

I bet they're all Americans.
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 4:57 AM on August 9, 2016 [14 favorites]


Putting on my pundit/oracle hat and I expect this to be the Republican McGovern moment. The electoral victory won't be as gaudy as 1972, 1980, 1984 but it will be bad. The Republican Solid South has been breached and while the great plains show no sign of moving towards blue the electoral votes required to be competitive simply aren't there.

Republicans have a default generic environment where they simply spot the Democrats close to 250+ solid electoral votes. This requires winning virtually all battleground states and going on the offense in Democratic states. This is a tall order during presidential election years and almost require scandal or recession to doom the Democrats.

Combined with the loss of values voter referendums to inspire GOTV efforts (gay marriage is no longer a winner, bathroom bills don't seem to be driving turnout, etc) and most of the GOTV strategies of the right are toast other than the evergreen abortion issue.

This is a bad environment for Republicans and Trump makes it way worse because the demographics they were most targeting with outreach efforts are getting pushed to the left by openly racist attacks.

Granted Republicans can be successful at other levels but losing the presidency for 12-16 years would be devastating due to the impact on the executive functionality and the judiciary.
posted by vuron at 4:59 AM on August 9, 2016 [3 favorites]


Hannity ran segments trying to smear Khizr Khan and spread the "Hillary has parkinsons" meme tonight, which seems a bit out there even for his astoundingly low standards. If this keeps up he'll be well into Alex Jones territory before the election is over.

By October he'll be sitting behind his desk reading the ICD-10 codes straight from the manual in the hopes that something sticks.

"What about W56.09XA people? Initial encounter with a dolphin! Did that dolphin know about Benghazi? Can we trust someone who pals around with dolphins??" (takes another swig of Wild Turkey as terrified staffers look on, mentally updating their resumes)
posted by splen at 5:01 AM on August 9, 2016 [5 favorites]


New: NBC/SurveyMonkey poll:

2-WAY
Clinton 51
Trump 41

4-WAY
Clinton 44
Trump 38
Johnson 10
Stein 4
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 5:01 AM on August 9, 2016 [1 favorite]


I bet they're all Americans.

Well, yes, but Americans make up a shockingly high number of voters in American elections, so...
posted by Mayor West at 5:02 AM on August 9, 2016 [55 favorites]


Peter Serafinowicz gives Donald Trump different voices.

Did I really need more reasons to love Serafinowicz?!
posted by winna at 5:18 AM on August 9, 2016 [2 favorites]


Kissinger was/is a horrible person but through the lens of the dominant paradigm of his time period of dominance over US Foriegn policy he and the other practitioners of Realpolitik were hardly out of the mainstream of thought in the US and in much of Europe.

US foriegn policy is typically governed under similar policies to this day. Yes there are elements of idealism in the rhetoric most of the time but when push comes to shove the US tends to push pragmatic goals in regards to foreign policy situations.

There are the obvious exceptions such as the less than pragmatic policies in regards to the Israel-Palestine conflict but those are unusual.
posted by vuron at 5:20 AM on August 9, 2016 [1 favorite]


Hillary's a policy-wonk and kind of a square but you're forgetting one key fact. She's married to Bill Clinton. Forty years she's spent, arguing and debating with one of the great communicators of our age. I'd be willing to bet that she's won well over half of those arguments. Hillary Clinton, who sat through hours of excruciatingly stupid cross-examination by Congress over Benghazi, is going to own the debates. If Donald Trump isn't quaking in his boots, it's just more proof of his unbelievable idiocy.
posted by wabbittwax at 5:24 AM on August 9, 2016 [31 favorites]


I tried to read Kissenger's Wikipedia article, in hopes of better understanding his specific crimes and contributions (why do some people I admire say he is monster, and other people I admire say he is a genius? What exactly was his role in Vietnam?), but I can tell it's been subject to some edit wars even without looking at the edit history. Wikipedia is not a good source for controversial subjects.

Now I've been looking around the internet for an hour, and in some ways I'm more confused than ever. I'm just gonna leave these links here because I don't relly have any conclusions, but these seem like relevant background... Salon magazine on Kissenger's "Genocidal Legacy"

This history from a professor at Yale tells a slightly different story about the bombing of Cambodia, places the blame more squarely on Nixon, while noting that it actually started under Johnson. It suggests escalated because we were trying to pull out of Vietnam in a hurry without surrendering all the territory we'd held.

Both articles above address the relationship between the bombing of Cambodia and drone strikes by Obama, and between Cambodia and Iraq, so some further context..

Obama's attempts to limit military intervention, against the foreign policy community consensus

Obama advisor Samantha Power once harshly criticized Kissenger, before going to the Red Socks game with him described in that Salon link and accepting an award from him...

Samantha Power once called Hillary Clinton "a monster" but later apologized.

It seems Samantha Power has sometimes been described as Kissinger's opposite, an idealist where he was a realist, but both seem to be "hawks" albeit with different goals -- military intervention in the service of humanitarian goals vs. in the service of American national interests. Power was "considered to have been a key figure in the Obama administration in persuading the president to intervene militarily in Libya"

The most prominent figures who oppose both Kissenger and Power, though, seem to be not "doves" but isolationists, like Trump, whose "America first" slogan recalls the foremost non-interventionist pressure group against the American entry into World War II. Who history does not remember kindly.

I don't know. What a mess.
posted by OnceUponATime at 5:25 AM on August 9, 2016 [10 favorites]


In conclusion, Kissinger is a man of contrasts.
posted by wabbittwax at 5:26 AM on August 9, 2016 [10 favorites]


2-WAY
Clinton 51
Trump 41

4-WAY
Clinton 44
Trump 38
Johnson 10
Stein 4


Has FiveThirtyEight (or one of its contemporaries) done any longform analysis of what these 4-way numbers actually mean? Because in every election during which I've been of age, third-party candidates have polled between 3 and 10 percent all the way up until the election, but have never garnered more than 2 or 3% in the general. People wildly overstate their willingness to go third-party, especially after watching the Nader spectacle unfold in 2000, but the numbers get reported with a straight face, and then get incorporated into the models.
posted by Mayor West at 5:30 AM on August 9, 2016 [1 favorite]


Has FiveThirtyEight (or one of its contemporaries) done any longform analysis of what these 4-way numbers actually mean? Because in every election during which I've been of age, third-party candidates have polled between 3 and 10 percent all the way up until the election, but have never garnered more than 2 or 3% in the general.
FWIW, FiveThirtyEight currently has Johnson with 7.8% in the nowcast and 5.3% in the polls-plus, which gives you an idea of how much they're discounting his current numbers. Of course that still doesn't capture the difference, if any, between what people say in today's polls and how they would vote today (which 538 may also be doing, but doesn't show up in outward-facing numbers).
posted by dfan at 5:35 AM on August 9, 2016 [2 favorites]


Okay, I give up - can someone please explain the reference to the wealthy Scotsman and the 1916 quarter?

Empress, the kicker to the story is that when he finally replaced the unique and incredibly valuable quarter he went to sell it and only then learned that the only person in the world wealthy enough to afford it - is himself.
posted by yhbc at 5:40 AM on August 9, 2016 [8 favorites]


Also, 538 says this about how their model handles third-party candidates:
Historically, third-party candidates tend to underperform their early polls. Essentially, some third-party voters may really be undecided voters using the third-party candidate as a placeholder. (Note that third-party candidates do not necessarily underperform their late polls. This is more of a concern in the summer and early fall.)
Therefore, early in the race, the polls-plus model will subtract some of the vote from the third-party candidate based on this pattern and reallocate it to undecided.
posted by dfan at 5:41 AM on August 9, 2016 [1 favorite]


>I bet they're all Americans.

Well, yes, but Americans make up a shockingly high number of voters in American elections, so...


Bloody foreigners, eh? Lots of keyboard warriors out there but how many of them actually bother to turn up on election day? #slacktivists
posted by modernnomad at 5:47 AM on August 9, 2016 [4 favorites]


Mitch McConnell's Supreme Court Dilemm: If Republicans are looking for any way to separate themselves from Trump, moving on Garland would do the trick. "Congress is likely to be in session for a grand total of 20 days between now and the election, and it's clear that confirming Garland a vote is the only concrete, news-driving step that Republicans can take to separate themselves from Trump," a top Democratic Senate official says.
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 5:48 AM on August 9, 2016 [4 favorites]


The 538 predictions for DC made me smile this morning, so deep blue with Johnson showing a higher chance of winning than Trump.
posted by C'est la D.C. at 5:49 AM on August 9, 2016 [4 favorites]


why do some people I admire say he is monster, and other people I admire say he is a genius?

Those are not mutually exclusive statements.

Kissinger's own accounts of what he did and why are enough to damn him.
posted by winna at 5:51 AM on August 9, 2016 [14 favorites]


Uh, also, like it or not but not everyone thinks Kissinger is a horrible war criminal. Like a substantial number of people (some relatively well educated in politics and 20th century history, and many others that aren't), think of Kissinger as an elder statesman. If Kissinger is someone's "bridge too far" in supporting Hillary Clinton then (a) they don't have very much perspective, or (b) they were going to find some other reason not to vote for Clinton. Given the risk of a Trump presidency -- I doubt HRC is taking anything for granted, poll numbers or not -- getting one more senior dude that many see as "reasonable" to endorse you doesn't have a lot of downside. Reasonable people who may not like him are also likely to swallow their distaste.

Amen. Ain't gonna let that stinkin' Kissinger turn me around.
posted by duffell at 6:06 AM on August 9, 2016 [1 favorite]






I suppose I should be glad that the news cycle has slowed down enough for us to discuss Vague-Possibility-Of-Kissinger-Endorsing-Gate in the Guy-No-One's-Heard-Of-Declares-Candidacy-In-August thread.
posted by kyrademon at 6:34 AM on August 9, 2016 [24 favorites]


Mormons’ Distaste for Donald Trump Puts Utah Up for Grabs

tl;dr: "After Trump's done with Muslims and Jews we're probably next"
posted by Talez at 6:38 AM on August 9, 2016


Mormons’ Distaste for Donald Trump Puts Utah Up for Grabs

The latest polls give Trump a 12 point lead. It is however Gary Johnson's best shot.
posted by Francis at 6:38 AM on August 9, 2016 [2 favorites]


I though W had put Kissinger in charge of the eventual Congressional 9/11 commission, but then I realized I must be out of my damned mind because that would just be too f*#%ing weird even for the Cheneydog. I mean, *record scratch* wh-whaaa?!

And you were there, MeFi! And you were there too MSM! /faints
posted by petebest at 6:50 AM on August 9, 2016 [1 favorite]


I thought the focus on Henry Kissinger was weird when Sanders brought it up in the debates, and I think it's weird now. Not a fan in the least, but he seems about as relevant to the current geopolitical situation as Captain Kangaroo.
posted by EarBucket at 7:00 AM on August 9, 2016 [8 favorites]




The latest polls give Trump a 12 point lead. It is however Gary Johnson's best shot.

538 hates that polling outfit and gives them very bad marks. Better pollsters have it closer.
posted by (Arsenio) Hall and (Warren) Oates at 7:19 AM on August 9, 2016


Not a fan in the least, but he seems about as relevant to the current geopolitical situation as Captain Kangaroo.

I think Kissinger is the result of a desperate search for an albatross to hang around Clinton's neck, since the other attempts appear to be failing spectacularly.
posted by Mooski at 7:20 AM on August 9, 2016 [4 favorites]


Henry Kissinger is a snake who spent his life sucking up to power and to evil and to powers of evil. There aint no frigin contrast about it. You can get a copy of Seymour Hersh Price of Power for one cent plus postage at Amazon. It is interesting and readable but it is one of those books you don't want to even pick up and glance at unless you have a strong stomach.
posted by bukvich at 7:22 AM on August 9, 2016 [7 favorites]


I can see it now. Trump will continue to become more and more unacceptable, and we will all see the worst qualities of ourselves in that orange manifestation implode before our very eyes. We will come to terms with the darkness in ourselves that sought to cultivate this monster, and we will all put our differences aside to achieve a common goal. Democrats and Republicans alike will come together in harmony to build a wall around Trump, and Mexico will insist on paying for it. We will then all live together and love each other in peace, racial tensions will disintegrate, and foreign relations will be the best they've ever been. And America will be Great Again™.
This is how you make America great again.
posted by Talez at 7:25 AM on August 9, 2016 [14 favorites]


That Utah is even within 12 points is freaking amazing. Yes there has been a big influx of all sorts of people into SLC in recent years to the point where if not a multicultural oasis it looks very different than it used to look but even if Clinton wins SLC it's unlikely that she could carry the rest of the state without a wholesale repudiation of Trump by the Mormons in the form of a protest vote for Johnson.

I don't expect Utah to become another one of the Desert Southwest blue states but the simple fact of the matter is that despite the traditionally conservative lean of the Southwest the influx of Latinx and younger voters into hot job markets has created a very significant shift in electoral politics.

The Oldies in Phoenix-Scottsdale are still holding firm in Arizona but their bastion is weakening as the death of older white voters is changing demographics in the Phoenix area. Of course there are always new retirees to replace the old ones but hopefully they are more centrist.

New Mexico is already solid blue, Colorado and Nevada are getting there. Utah will be the Red Fortress for the next generation at least but team Blue definitely looks like it's got Team Red in retreat.
posted by vuron at 7:26 AM on August 9, 2016 [1 favorite]


By contrast, in a word association game, many people with very middle-of-the-road political views hear "Kissinger" and blurt "war criminal."

I'm pretty sure that many more voters have no idea who he is.
posted by JakeEXTREME at 7:27 AM on August 9, 2016 [9 favorites]


I though W had put Kissinger in charge of the eventual Congressional 9/11 commission, but then I realized I must be out of my damned mind because that would just be too f*#%ing weird even for the Cheneydog. I mean, *record scratch* wh-whaaa?!

Yeah, Kissinger was W's first choice to head the 9/11 Commission. Most likely because he was Nixon's NSA, and then Secretary of State under Nixon and Ford. He resigned only a few weeks after accepting the post, when he realized he'd have to dissolve his private consulting business to prevent conflicts of interest.
posted by zarq at 7:28 AM on August 9, 2016 [1 favorite]


PPP: Clinton leads in NC for first time since March
-69% of Trump voters think that if Hillary Clinton wins the election it will be because it was rigged, to only 16% who think it would be because she got more vote than Trump. More specifically 40% of Trump voters think that ACORN (which hasn't existed in years) will steal the election for Clinton. That shows the long staying power of GOP conspiracy theories.

-48% of Trump voters think that Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton deserve the blame for Humayun Khan's death to 16% who absolve them and 36% who aren't sure one way or the other (Obama was in the Illinois Legislature when it happened.) Showing the extent to which Trump supporters buy into everything he says, 40% say his comments about the Khans last week were appropriate to only 22% who will grant that they were inappropriate. And 39% of Trump voters say they view the Khan family negatively, to just 11% who have a positive opinion of them.

-Even though Trump ended up admitting it didn't exist 47% of his voters say they saw the video of Iran collecting 400 million dollars from the United States to only 46% who say they didn't see the video. Showing the extent to which the ideas Trump floats and the coverage they get can overshadow the facts, even 25% of Clinton voters claim to have seen the nonexistent video.

-Trump said last week that Hillary Clinton is the devil, and 41% of Trump voters say they think she is indeed the devil to 42% who disagree with that sentiment and 17% who aren't sure one way or the other.

We've been writing for almost a year that there's a cult like aspect to Trump's supporters, where they'll go along with anything he says. Trump made some of his most outlandish claims and statements yet last week, but we continue to find that few in his support base disavow them.

The public as a whole is a different story though.
posted by zombieflanders at 7:31 AM on August 9, 2016 [40 favorites]


“I certainly don’t think it’s appropriate to start changing all of a sudden when you’ve been winning,” Trump told reporters this morning.
posted by EarBucket at 7:32 AM on August 9, 2016 [1 favorite]


I don't think Kissinger is irrelevant. I think Kissinger is "Pax Americana" personified. Can we and should we enforce "peace" with military power? The Romans managed it for a while. If that is what America is doing, what means are justified by that end? Is it even possible to do that without killing civillians? And what happens if we stop trying to enforce that peace? And what is the value of "peace" here when it really means "only small wars" -- but no big ones, no WWIII or nuclear war..?

Is Henry Kissinger's a record of success because we never (yet) fought WWIII or faced nuclear armageddon, or a record of failure because of the horrible things we've done in all the "little" wars we fought instead?

I think we need to have that conversation. And I hope it doesn't hurt Clinton to have it now. I really, warmly admire her in many, many ways, and hope desperately that she beats Trump, and am contributing to her campaign and doing what I can to warn people about the dangers Trump presents. I think if anyone decides not to vote for Clinton because of her relationship with Kissinger they need to accept that they are responsible for helping to elect a man who wants to pull out of NATO because Putin can play him, to encourage nuclear proliferation, to "bomb the shit out of" ISIS, to take over oil fields, "take out their families," torture prisoners and abandon the Geneva conventions, feed the terrorist propaganda narrative that America hates Muslims, and wonder why we can't use nuclear weapons... Trump is not a "peace candidate" and we need to do everything we can to stop him from being elected. Full Stop.

But while I think we have no choice but to vote for Clinton under the circumstances, I am still not totally comfortable with her foreign policy either, and it seems fair (assuming we all agree we have to vote for her anyway) to talk about that.

I think Clinton is a big believer in Pax Americana. With all that entails. Drone strikes and Henry Kissinger and all of it.

And I think Trump wants to withdraw from the world stage and let anybody who wants nuclear weapons have them, let anyone who wants to invade their neighbors do it, as long as they leave us alone.

And NEITHER of these visions makes moral sense to me. But I'm not sure what the third option is.

And I want to talk about it. I really, really wrestle with these questions, and I want to hear the opinions of the smart, confident people of Metafilter who I respect. I want to hear the criticisms and the defenses.

But we all still have to vote for Hillary Clinton, regardless. That's just a given.
posted by OnceUponATime at 7:32 AM on August 9, 2016 [30 favorites]


I consider myself more aware of politics than a lot of my peers (mid thirties, college educated, work in tech) and I don't really know who Kissinger is or what he represents. I think the main message my friends (who I am pretty sure are all voting for Clinton) will think "Hmm seems like another person who was supposed to endorse Republican is endorsing Hillary instead."
posted by like_neon at 7:33 AM on August 9, 2016 [4 favorites]


40% of Trump voters think that ACORN (which hasn't existed in years) will steal the election for Clinton.

ACORN's ability to rig the election despite their lack of existence is just further evidence of their evil genius.
posted by diogenes at 7:39 AM on August 9, 2016 [46 favorites]


> "'I certainly don’t think it’s appropriate to start changing all of a sudden when you’ve been winning,' Trump told reporters this morning."

From the article: "But while a wave of recent public polls have shown Trump trailing Hillary Clinton by double digits, the Manhattan billionaire said his campaign’s internal polling paints a rosier picture ..."

Just like his earlier stated plan to wait until the fall and then roll out a massive ad blitz, this is another comment made by losers with losing campaigns.

I'm always astonished that there's anyone who still says these kinds of things without realizing what they reveal.
posted by kyrademon at 7:40 AM on August 9, 2016 [5 favorites]


I think Kissinger is the result of a desperate search for an albatross to hang around Clinton's neck, since the other attempts appear to be failing spectacularly.

It's been reported by multiple outlets that her campaign has reached out to former Secretaries of State, including Rice, Baker, Shultz and Kissinger. That fits what we know -- they're definitely interested in endorsements and support from prominent Republicans who can't stomach Trump.

The Clintons and Kissingers are reportedly social friends.
posted by zarq at 7:41 AM on August 9, 2016 [2 favorites]


New Mexico isn't competitive, which is reassuring, because the local TV reporters are kind of rubbish tonight. "Hillary Clinton says she can improve the economy, but the Republican candidate, Donald Trump, disagrees." Gee, thanks for that balanced coverage.
Isn't local news always like that? Last night, I was listening to local radio where some police talking head was being given ten minutes of free airtime to talk unchallenged about why new police body-cameras were going to keep us all safe. No questions were asked, other than things like "so this is going to keep us all much safer, right?" and "this is going to save public money, right?"

A lot of the time, it feels like the "reporter" feels almost awe-struck by the idea that someone is deigning to talk to them and fill airtime on their radio or TV station. The smaller the market, the more this seems to happen.
posted by winterhill at 7:43 AM on August 9, 2016 [1 favorite]


How liberals helped enable the rise of Trump
Donald Trump is the Republican presidential nominee. He was chosen by Republican voters in Republican primaries, and then backed by Republican elites at the Republican National Convention. And less proximally, but no less obviously, much of his rise is the direct result of the Republican Party's behavior and decisions over the last several years.

But Trump is about much more than the GOP.
posted by the man of twists and turns at 7:48 AM on August 9, 2016 [2 favorites]


Religion Dispatches interview with historian Darren Grem, author of The Blessings of Business: How Corporations Shaped Conservative Christianity:

Evangelical Trump fandom is no deviation:
We also have to wrestle with what evangelicalism actually was and remains, which is a religious identity shaped by money, marketing, corporate power, corporate executives, and private-sector places and spaces.

Indeed, places and people typically deemed “secular” or “non-evangelical” were also the means by which the evangelical sense of “the religious” was made. Detailing evangelical activities in the business world reveals the porous boundaries around a modern faith that—especially in journalistic treatments—typically appears as anti-modern or reactionary. Resistance to change is a part of the story, to be sure. But when taking account of its friendliness toward business, conservative evangelicalism emerges as a proactive, pragmatic faith.

Its practitioners were savvy and strategic, welcoming a variety of ideas from what they certainly saw as “outside” their world (from reformist progressivism to positive thinking to ecumenical pluralism) when constructing their visions for what it meant to live, think and work in a nation of corporations.

This insight should help to contextualize the present with the past, especially in this election year. White conservative evangelical fandom for a tycoon and top-down authoritarian such as Donald Trump is hardly out of step with how previous born-again Americans wooed business elites who seemed the best champions for their social, economic and political aspirations.
posted by palindromic at 7:49 AM on August 9, 2016 [2 favorites]


Hasn't the Trump campaign indicated a dismissal of the need for internal polling in the past? Suddenly they are dependent on internal polls that paint a different picture than the public polling.

Unfortunately while internal polling can be extremely useful especially in situations where public polling is extremely infrequent or is only done by extremely small polling outfits with dubious reputations you need to have some damned good reasons to discount public polling if the poll is relatively fresh and is indicating similar trend lines to just about every other poll. It's possible that the poll in NC is an outlier but the statistical improbability of every current state poll that shows crumbling support for Trump is not a good thing for Trump.

The reality is that the perception has already set in based upon the craptacular RNC and the WTFuckery of the Khan debacle that Trump is a loser and a loose cannon. That's going to require a very compelling Trump Comeback manufactured narrative to undo. When late night talk show hosts are more or less devoting large segments of time to handle your daily gaffes and blunders that means the media smells blood.

The media were willing to promote a false "Romney Comeback" narrative 4 years ago even though the polling showed a solid trend line but I'm not sure they are going to go with that this year because frankly it provides viewership to watch the flaming 20 car pileup that is the Trump campaign so you don't even need to go with the typical horse race narrative.
posted by vuron at 7:50 AM on August 9, 2016 [7 favorites]


I'm an old school test kernels and greasy brown paper bag man and this election has made me sick of popcorn. Make it stop!
posted by whuppy at 7:52 AM on August 9, 2016 [4 favorites]


Hasn't the Trump campaign indicated a dismissal of the need for internal polling in the past? Suddenly they are dependent on internal polls that paint a different picture than the public polling.

It's entirely possible that when Trump refers to internal polling, he means "how I, Donald Trump, feel the election is going for me today."
posted by Blue Jello Elf at 7:53 AM on August 9, 2016 [52 favorites]


Hasn't the Trump campaign indicated a dismissal of the need for internal polling in the past? Suddenly they are dependent on internal polls that paint a different picture than the public polling.

You misunderstood -- when Trump said "Internal polls" he meant the ones inside his own head. (Current results: Trump 105%, Lyin' Hillary Clinton 0%)
posted by mmoncur at 7:55 AM on August 9, 2016 [8 favorites]


How liberals helped enable the rise of Trump

I enjoy this genre of nonsense much more than I should, because it's always so desperate and pleading. We could have had Ted Cruz if you just eased up in the political correctness, guys!
posted by Artw at 7:55 AM on August 9, 2016 [65 favorites]


And NEITHER of these visions makes moral sense to me. But I'm not sure what the third option is.

That's the thing, though, right? How would we know if we were in the best possible timeline? How can we possibly evaluate that Pax Americana calculus without access to the information that goes into those decisions? Without knowing what the alternatives are?

I think any conversation about these things (and I'm including things like the TPP here) is very much hampered by the fact that there are only a handful of people on the planet with access to all the relevant information. We simply can't evaluate them as a whole. This is why we have representative democracy right?

So we're left discussing philosophical abstractions, rather than the particulars of a given situation, and I feel like anyone who's ever had to try to apply an abstract model to a real world situation knows how much bullshit that is.

I don't know. Honestly. I do think that there's no such thing as a neutral position for us--we are the world super power, whether we like it or not, and a choice for inaction is also a choice (sometimes with monstrous consequences). Our existence in the geopolitical sphere alters it.

I do think in that context that someone with Kissinger's skills -- whatever his moral failings, he has been a remarkably successful negotiator, right? -- is best seen as a tool. How the President uses that tool is up to them.
posted by schadenfrau at 7:55 AM on August 9, 2016 [8 favorites]


Let's be fair, Trump's polling isn't just what's inside his own head, he is culling it from his Twitter replies. Same place where he finds those weird nuggets of fiction that he "read" that "people are talking about."
posted by gatorae at 7:59 AM on August 9, 2016 [7 favorites]


It's entirely possible that when Trump refers to internal polling, he means "how I, Donald Trump, feel the election is going for me today."

Makes sense. Trump - I'm worth whatever I feel.

TRUMP: My net worth fluctuates, and it goes up and down with the markets and with attitudes and with feelings, even my own feelings, but I try.

CERESNEY: Let me just understand that a little. You said your net worth goes up and down based upon your own feelings?

TRUMP: Yes, even my own feelings, as to where the world is, where the world is going, and that can change rapidly from day to day ...
posted by chris24 at 8:00 AM on August 9, 2016 [11 favorites]


Please let Trump keep talking like this until election day: No Pivot Here: Trump Asks, Why Would I Tone It Down When I'm 'Winning?'
"I think that you know my temperament has gotten me here. I've always had a good temperament and it's gotten me here," Trump said in an interview with Fox Business, according to a transcript of the appearance. "I certainly don't think it is appropriate to start changing all of a sudden when you have been winning."
posted by murphy slaw at 8:01 AM on August 9, 2016 [9 favorites]


Things I note about that interview: Trump takes the word "temperament" away from his critics and waves it like an amulet. I wonder what words pundits could force into his speech if they set their minds to it.

Trump's mind divides the world into "winning" and "losing", with no possible middle ground, and since he doesn't *feel* like he's losing, the only possible conclusion is that he is winning.

The more ominous read on this is "I'm winning, any polls that show otherwise are rigged, so if I don't win on election day, it is plain that massive fraud has occurred." Part of me suspects that Trump actually believes this.
posted by murphy slaw at 8:05 AM on August 9, 2016 [5 favorites]


we're going to see all sorts of Monday-morning quarterbacking about how Hillary was too shrill/emotional/unemotional/bitchy/direct/indirect/talked circularly/concentrated on things that didn't matter/didn't concentrate enough/concentrated too much on one point/was too egg-heady/used too many fancy words/didn't sound smart enough/looked ugly, and do you want someone like that, or someone like our boy Trump who's reg'lar folk like us?

You forgot "sighed."

(For the benefit of those who missed this glorious moment in American journalism, the media took Gore's sighs not as an indicator that George W. Bush was spouting nonsense but as indication that he wasn't a regular guy you'd want to have a beer with. That's right, they penalized him for being more knowledgable and better prepared than Bush.

That said, I don't think Trump is capable of Bush's folksy charm, shallow and phony as it was, and the "Trump is just making things up as he goes along" narrative is, in the immortal words of pundit Cokie Roberts, "out there," so I suspect Clinton will benefit more from the debates despite the press' bias against her.)
posted by Gelatin at 8:12 AM on August 9, 2016 [11 favorites]


I do think in that context that someone with Kissinger's skills -- whatever his moral failings, he has been a remarkably successful negotiator, right? -- is best seen as a tool. How the President uses that tool is up to them.

Whatever his moral failings, indeed.

This seems like rather awful logic to me - should Clinton woo everyone, no matter how vile or problematic, as long as they have some useful skill? Shouldn't we hope that she's better than that? And no, this isn't some sort of purity test or fluffy fantasy world politics, it's morality, which is important, no matter that Trump has frigging abandoned it. She doesn't need him. I doubt he'll swing a single vote her way if none of the other defections have. It's just spitting on the many dead that Kissinger left behind him wantonly and with a carelessness that is vile to read about.
posted by lesbiassparrow at 8:12 AM on August 9, 2016 [8 favorites]


...should Clinton woo everyone, no matter how vile or problematic, as long as they have some useful skill?

Say what you will about him, but Charles Manson has demonstrated some great organizational skills.
posted by Floydd at 8:15 AM on August 9, 2016 [8 favorites]


> Trump responded to Hillary Clinton's criticism that his economic policy team is loyal to special interests and just composed of "six guys named Steve" by saying more names for his advisory team would be announced in coming weeks.

Starting a pool for how many more "Steves" we'll have. At least a brace, maybe a hattrick if we're really lucky.
posted by Tevin at 8:16 AM on August 9, 2016 [6 favorites]


You know, I know a lot of people are kind of cheering about the fracturing of the GOP, but ...

Sometimes people on the right have ideas that are excellent.

Name one -- seriously.
posted by JackFlash at 8:17 AM on August 9, 2016


JackFlash - Obamacare is largely based on what Romney did in MA, right? There's lots wrong with Romeny, but credit where credit is due?
posted by Sweetdefenestration at 8:22 AM on August 9, 2016


Romneycare.

Good first step.
posted by qcubed at 8:22 AM on August 9, 2016 [2 favorites]


Explicitly pointing out that this is parody, because the arguments are all real enough: The Evangelical Case for Voting for David Duke:
As I said, I can understand why my evangelical friends would choose not to support Duke. But based on my extensive years studying Christian ethics I disagree. Since Duke has announced his candidacy for the senate race in Louisiana, I think it is a morally good choice to support David Duke.

Now, I know some of you will be wondering how an evangelical like myself could support a self-described white supremacist and neo-Nazi like Duke. How could someone who has previously expressed such concern about the moral qualifications of office holders suddenly turn a blind eye to Duke’s considerable failings? Am I simply sacrificing all of my credibility as a public Christian in order to seize a final dying chance at political power such that I’m willing to even support a charlatan who has so far furnished us with no credible reasons to think he will fulfill his promises to my constituency?

No, the truth is that I have credible reason to believe that Duke is a baby Christian. In fact, a friend of mine who pastors a large church in Houston, which is located quite close to Duke’s home state of Louisiana, has given me his personal assurance that Duke prayed the sinner’s prayer with him recently.
posted by palindromic at 8:22 AM on August 9, 2016 [4 favorites]


Trump's internal polling probably consists of him asking his family and friends business associates cronies if they're planning on voting for him.
posted by The Card Cheat at 8:23 AM on August 9, 2016 [1 favorite]


‘Sesame Street’ parodied Donald Trump in sketch 10 years ago

I enjoy this genre of nonsense much more than I should, because it's always so desperate and pleading.

I should make a collection.
posted by the man of twists and turns at 8:25 AM on August 9, 2016 [3 favorites]


Other ideas from the right which weren't terribad.

- rapprochement with China
- SALT 1/2
- Eisenhower Interstate System
posted by qcubed at 8:25 AM on August 9, 2016 [13 favorites]


47% of his voters say they saw the video of Iran collecting 400 million dollars from the United States to only 46% who say they didn't see the video.

And this is something even Trump has said didn't happen.

That's 20 percent of all voters buying into consensual high fantasy, and why con artist will remain a serious career option for any ambitious young person well into the future.
posted by Devonian at 8:26 AM on August 9, 2016 [9 favorites]


okay, i really want to know - why do republicans push so hard on the goddamn estate tax? it's an issue that affects a tiny % of voters and i can't believe it moves the needle for anyone else even if they call it the "death tax" or "grave robbing" or "necrotaxation" or whatever is the current formulation.

Okay, like, I'm never ever going to vote for Trump even if he promises me ponies and cake, but he's trying to attract people like me. I find taxation on land and valuables not just a bad idea, but actually immoral from my ethical POV. (I understand other people have different ethical systems and they're not bad people for believing in this). It doesn't matter to me whether or not it's going to affect me - I think it's morally wrong to force children to sell the things someone has spent a lifetime building (land, valuables) in order to pay the government. This is just a fundamental difference between liberals and conservatives like me - I believe in accumulating land and valuables to help the family in the future and make the lives of children easier. I don't believe that forcibly breaking up land accumulation is a thing the government should have an interest in.

In an election between two people who are relatively similar, the guy who promises a scaling back of the estate tax - and more broadly, who believes in the accumulation of wealth for families - is going to matter to me. I generally think generationally - not, how will this policy matter to me, but how will this policy matter to my kids and grandkids and great grandkids.

However, for me, the candidate being an actual proto-fascist is non-negotiable. It doesn't matter how much land he is going to let me and my kids acquire if he's a monster.
posted by corb at 8:27 AM on August 9, 2016 [12 favorites]


One old school right wing idea that seems to be enjoying a renaissance at least in some circles is the idea of implementing a universal basic income.

While I don't necessarily agree with some of the underlying assumptions of the initial proponents like the idea that basically all government programs result in undesirable economic distortions due to the lack of flexibility inherent in government programs there are some potential valuable concepts that can be applied from the idea of implementing a universal basic income as a remedy for some long standing social issues.
posted by vuron at 8:27 AM on August 9, 2016 [1 favorite]


Other ideas from the right which weren't terribad.
- Eisenhower Interstate System


I think we're going to have to agree to disagree on that one.
posted by entropicamericana at 8:28 AM on August 9, 2016 [4 favorites]


good ideas from the right:
the 13th amendment wasn't bad
kidding!
posted by murphy slaw at 8:29 AM on August 9, 2016


"'I certainly don’t think it’s appropriate to start changing all of a sudden when you’ve been winning,' Trump told reporters this morning."

I read this with disbelief this morning: WaPo: Donald Trump still hasn’t figured out the ground game

Here is what is going on in Cincinnati, Ohio
Trump has a staffer in the region, the Enquirer reports -- a woman named Missy Walters who has been with the Trump campaign since January. That "ground zero" doesn't appear to have been her work, though. According to a campaign official, it's a function of enthusiastic volunteers -- volunteers filling a vacuum left by the Trump campaign's non-existent outreach operation on the ground in the region.

It's not clear where Trump's team is running anything of any scale. The campaign continues to trail Hillary Clinton's staff head-count by a wide margin. Trump has regularly argued that his low spending on staff saves him money, but organizing in battleground states requires staff in those states. The internet allows campaigns to coordinate phone calling remotely, but no one has yet figured out how to knock on a voter's door over the web. Volunteers can run phone banks or precinct walks, but relying on unpaid staff to do that effectively is risky.
What is he doing with all of that money he raised last month? He isn't spending it on staff, he isn't spending it on ads, and he sure isn't spending it on a GOTV strategy.

Speaking of the staff, not only is his numbers minuscule in comparison to Clinton's, they all seem to be incredibly incompetent. For example, yesterday speaking in front of the Detroit Economic Club on Monday his prepared speech stated that Detroit is a city controlled by Democrats at "every level." Michigan has a Republican Governor and a Republican controlled House and Senate. A quick Google would have not gone amiss when you are writing a speech that will be read and parsed Nation-wide. Are his speech writers that incompetent, that lazy, or are they so underpaid they don't give a shit?
posted by Secret Life of Gravy at 8:32 AM on August 9, 2016 [9 favorites]


good ideas from the right:
the 13th amendment wasn't bad
kidding!


Just remember that any time somebody starts talking about how the GOP is the "party of Lincoln" that they disavow pretty much everything he did. Or as Charlie Pierce says:
Jesus H. Christ on a biscuit, can we stop with the Party of Lincoln crapola?

You forfeited the right to that title the moment that Harry Dent sat down to write a memo. You are now the Party of Calhoun, the party of voter suppression. Hell, I don't know what "constitutional conservatism" even means any more, except to note that it seems to involve radical Tentherism and a desire to roll back the effects of Amendments 13-15.
posted by zombieflanders at 8:35 AM on August 9, 2016 [7 favorites]


> What is he doing with all of that money he raised last month? He isn't spending it on staff, he isn't spending it on ads, and he sure isn't spending it on a GOTV strategy.

I think it might start with a T and end with a rump?
Good hair like that isn't cheap, you know.
posted by RedOrGreen at 8:35 AM on August 9, 2016 [3 favorites]


Just remember that any time somebody starts talking about how the GOP is the "party of Lincoln" that they disavow pretty much everything he did.

thats_the_joke.gif
posted by murphy slaw at 8:37 AM on August 9, 2016


(oh by the way on a total sidenote because I think all the people are here, I am slow on the enhattening but it is still happening)
posted by corb at 8:37 AM on August 9, 2016 [9 favorites]


What is he doing with all of that money he raised last month?

Trump steaks.
posted by Artw at 8:37 AM on August 9, 2016 [2 favorites]


Even if you disagree with the concept of taxing private property which is definitely out there even among conservatives corb you have to admit that there are negative impacts of allowing incredible accumulation of wealth by pre-existing wealthy people. The truism that money attracts money is definitely true and by allowing for unchecked gathering of wealth in the hands of the elite you are not just perpetuating but reinforcing wealth built on the exploitation of others.

For instance if a family was wealthy from the exploitation of slaves in the plantation system they should be expected to continue to collect assets without taxation the remainder of their existence? Doesn't that create the very systems of nobility that the founding fathers were so adamant on not replicating?

No the accumulation of wealth in the hands of the few especially over successive generations has been correctly seen as corrosive to the functioning of our democracy and something to be avoided. If anything the current low rates of taxation on inherited wealth should be reversed.

The other major reason for taxation of private property is that accumulated wealth in the form of large hoards is extremely nonproductive from an economic perspective. Our economy is largely built around consumption (do not get me started) but money collecting dust in ancestral homes and moldy bank vaults is far less productive than money that is continually churning through the economy in a series of constant interactions.
posted by vuron at 8:38 AM on August 9, 2016 [54 favorites]


That would require the speech writer to stop, doubt that he had something less than perfect knowledge of what he was talking about, and then be confident enough in himself (I was going to use a non-gendered pronoun here but it's Trump) to actually go and check.

Critical thinking and self-doubt are things that Trump and his supporters seem to simply lack. It's the only reason I can find to explain why otherwise nice people still support him. They know what the right position is and no amount of "facts" or "reality" will divert them from it.

This line of thinking always leads me to ask myself if I exhibit that same kind of entrenched thinking that they do, just from a liberal perspective (and with in-person debates, regrettably, I do) but when I'm on my own pondering my world-view I realize that if I was like that, I wouldn't even be asking myself that question.
posted by VTX at 8:41 AM on August 9, 2016 [5 favorites]


Sometimes people on the right have ideas that are excellent.

Name one -- seriously.


The Carbon Tax.

Cap & Trade.
posted by ocschwar at 8:42 AM on August 9, 2016 [4 favorites]


Obamacare is largely based on what Romney did in MA, right? There's lots wrong with Romeny, but credit where credit is due?

Credit for what. Obamacare is a horribly compromised plan that Obama was forced to offer in the mistaken idea that Republicans would accept it because it was a "Republican idea." Yet not one single Republican voted for it. And Republicans have voted 60 times to repeal it. So where are the good Republican ideas about healthcare?

- rapprochement with China
- SALT 1/2
- Eisenhower Interstate System


When you have to reach back more than half a century you are just proving my point. Republicans haven't had a single good idea on any substantive public policy since before Ronald Reagan.

Why are the NeverTrumpers agonizing that they " feel like they are betraying everything they believe in by voting Clinton." If it isn't the racism, then why do they cling to the Republican Party like a religious cult they can't shake. It certainly isn't because of their great policy ideas.
posted by JackFlash at 8:44 AM on August 9, 2016 [15 favorites]


To be clear, I am okay with taxing actual money in bank vaults and stocks and things. What gets me all maddened is when someone dies with a gorgeous art collection that they loved dearly and wanted to pass on to their kids which has increased in value and not a lot of cash money, so the art collection has to be broken up and sold in order to pay the tax on the art collection. Or especially when someone has this wonderful family estate but is cash-poor, so they have to figure out how to sell off part of the land in order to pay the tax.
posted by corb at 8:45 AM on August 9, 2016 [2 favorites]


The carbon tax was most definitely not an idea from the right, and to the extent that cap & trade can be called an idea from the right, it's mainly because they wanted minimal actual regulation with maximal profit for large corporations.
posted by zombieflanders at 8:46 AM on August 9, 2016


The EPA was a good idea from the right.

I think for this discussion to mean anything, we should limit it to good ideas from the contemporary right. Much more challenging that way!
posted by notyou at 8:46 AM on August 9, 2016 [1 favorite]


"How liberals helped enable the rise of Trump" feels like a rehash of "How Paul Krugman Made Donald Trump Possible." Both say that liberals "cried wolf" about such sane and down-to-earth candidates like George W. Bush, McCain, and Romney, thus making it hard to make such arguments when an "actual" dangerous person like Trump comes along. Such a line of reasoning requires ignoring the truly odious policies advocated by earlier GOP candidates who had the good graces not to seem like megalomaniacal windbags.
posted by dhens at 8:54 AM on August 9, 2016 [33 favorites]


TLDR: McCain, Romney et al. were dangerous, Trump is super mega double-secret dangerous.
posted by dhens at 8:55 AM on August 9, 2016 [7 favorites]


Trump Exposes Trump (h/t: BoingBoing)
posted by zombieflanders at 8:56 AM on August 9, 2016 [18 favorites]


So where are the good Republican ideas about healthcare?

Does this count?
posted by Groundhog Week at 8:57 AM on August 9, 2016 [1 favorite]


Republicans haven't had a single good idea on any substantive public policy since before Ronald Reagan.

Okay, well, when you specify it like that... but it feels like you moved the goalpost rather obviously here.

I mean, I get it, it's easy to just write off the right's idea people right now, but.
posted by qcubed at 9:00 AM on August 9, 2016 [1 favorite]


The EPA was a good idea from the right.

The National Environmental Policy Act, which led to the establishment of the EPA a few months later, was written by Democrat Henry Jackson. Environmentalism was hardly a right wing cause. Spiro Agnew made sport of attacking environmentalists.

And of course that was 45 years ago, an entirely different Republican Party, just a few years after the passage of the Civil Rights Act and before the cementing of the Southern Strategy.
posted by JackFlash at 9:01 AM on August 9, 2016 [12 favorites]


corb, how often does that actually happen though? And if the estate is worth a lot of money but there's no cash in hand, is the public interest actually better served by having the art sit in a private mansion somewhere, or being sold off, often to large museum collections, where it can actually be viewed by people who aren't wealthy elites?

Ditto for land; are we to retain an idea of the commons, or is everything to be parceled up and fenced in?
posted by aspersioncast at 9:01 AM on August 9, 2016 [18 favorites]


What gets me all maddened is when someone dies with a gorgeous art collection that they loved dearly and wanted to pass on to their kids which has increased in value and not a lot of cash money, so the art collection has to be broken up and sold in order to pay the tax on the art collection.

Ok Corb, I can speak to this.

When you have people who are very fortunate to accumulate massive amounts of wealth in their lifetime and they decide to spend it buying up artwork, that is fine-- great even. But when that artwork stays in the family and only guests get to see it, then that is a tragedy. Great Art created for the world should never remain in families for generations. One really wonderful thing that happened when Great Britain started taxing their aristocrats heavily and the family estates had to be restructured or turned to the public was that many great masterpieces that had been seen only by a few, very lucky individuals were sold and bought by museums so that they can be shared and appreciated by anyone with an interest.

What if one very wealthy guy bought up all the Beatles songs and didn't allow anyone to play them but only played them in the privacy of his home? (I know this isn't possible, I'm just using this as an hypothetical question.) Would that be a right and fair thing? Do you think his family should be the only ones to enjoy the Beatles' oeuvre for hundreds of years? Or what if there was only one copy of Hamlet which was in the hands of one family and they passed it down from family member to family member but never let the public read it, would that be fair?
posted by Secret Life of Gravy at 9:03 AM on August 9, 2016 [42 favorites]


The contemporary right doesn't have much it's for. It has lots of things it's against, changes it wants to reverse, changes it wants to prevent. Maybe that's part of why it's hard to point to any 'good ideas,' if 'good ideas' carries with it an implication of new ideas.
posted by snuffleupagus at 9:03 AM on August 9, 2016 [8 favorites]


Sometimes people on the right have ideas that are excellent.

Name one -- seriously.


The Earned Income Tax Credit.
posted by dw at 9:05 AM on August 9, 2016 [8 favorites]


No Pivot Here: Trump Asks, Why Would I Tone It Down When I'm 'Winning?'

Yuuup. And he is winning, according to his own metric of "Getting my ego fed, flying around and bellowing nonsense at adoring crowds and being on TV a lot."

It's not like he cares about the GOP. He hasn't been involved in it for very long. He used to be a Democratic Party member and a Reform Party member. He could give a shit about the GOP. He seems barely aware of their platform, or what it even means for a party to have a platform.

He's having the time of his life. This is like Spring Break for him.
posted by Cookiebastard at 9:05 AM on August 9, 2016 [5 favorites]


Okay, well, when you specify it like that... but it feels like you moved the goalpost rather obviously here.

Next you will tell me that Abraham Lincoln was a Republican. The question is why NeverTrumpers are still clinging to the Republican Party today, when the Party hasn't had any good ideas for half a century.
posted by JackFlash at 9:05 AM on August 9, 2016 [4 favorites]


Yeah no exempting whole classes of assets from inheritance taxes would make for massive distortions in the markets as all sorts of people would park assets in the form of artistic goods and land and so forth. The art market is already distorted like crazy because of a variety of factors but that would be an awful idea. Same with exempting real estate.

Simply put if your grandfather assembled a massive art collection or a massive estate you by no means are entitled to inherit that without taxation. If you want to make the art collection stay intact then donate to an institution so that the public can enjoy it.

Encouraging the wealthy to donate a portion of their estate to the benefit of all of humanity rather than the enrichment of a small number of people is well established in this country and foundations typically form the bulk of charitable giving in many cases.

Exempting church property from taxation already creates massive distortions in many local economies (how many mefites live close to a large established church that has massive amount of assets but an old and greying number of congregants and barely any social outreach?)
posted by vuron at 9:07 AM on August 9, 2016 [34 favorites]


-Trump said last week that Hillary Clinton is the devil, and 41% of Trump voters say they think she is indeed the devil to 42% who disagree with that sentiment and 17% who aren't sure one way or the other.

I can honestly say that I'm not sure whether or not Hillary Clinton is literally Satan, but I'm still voting for her.

And if corb's hypothetical art collection has cultural value beyond its financial worth, it should be confiscated and placed in a museum for the benefit of the public. Put up a nice plaque to recognize the efforts of the person who accumulated it.
posted by Faint of Butt at 9:08 AM on August 9, 2016


Guys, guys you're forgetting Iraq War I, starring Poppy Bush, and Iraq War II: The Befuckening, starring G.W. Bush and a young Dickard Cheney as "Tank".

The Right is just compacted with fantastical ideas. Oh and Freedom Fries, right? Man I could eat a ton of those little crispy things.
posted by petebest at 9:09 AM on August 9, 2016 [2 favorites]


How hard is it really to put your glorious estate and massive horde of treasure into some kind of trust or other instrument, then rent it out to yourself, or hide it behind some kind of private club membership, etc. anyway? If you want your family to be an undying legal entity, go ahead and make it an undying legal entity.
posted by nom de poop at 9:10 AM on August 9, 2016 [6 favorites]


How liberals helped enable the rise of Trump
"Pascal-Emmanuel Gobry is a writer and fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center. His writing has appeared at Forbes, The Atlantic, First Things, Commentary Magazine, The Daily Beast, The Federalist, Quartz, and other places."
"I heard that Commentary and Dissent had merged to form Dysentery."

Speaking of Kissinger, 40 years ago today, Nixon resigned the Presidency. Curiously, this morning, William Ruckelshaus, Nixon's first EPA Administrator and, in his later position as Deputy Attorney General, one of the men fired in the Saturday Night Massacre for his refusal to dismiss the Watergate Special Prosecutor Archibald Cox, endorsed Clinton.
posted by octobersurprise at 9:10 AM on August 9, 2016 [14 favorites]





The carbon tax was most definitely not an idea from the right, and to the extent that cap & trade can be called an idea from the right, it's mainly because they wanted minimal actual regulation with maximal profit for large corporations.


The right wing has policy people, it has politics people, and it has political theater people.

Both cap&trade and the carbon tax came from economists who were decidedly right wing policy wonks.

The political mercenaries, meanwhile, indeed only cared about these ideas to the extent they might have to. That's how the process goes.
posted by ocschwar at 9:25 AM on August 9, 2016 [1 favorite]


I had a comment written about the art thing but it's too much of a derail to argue about here.

Nevermind, carry on.
posted by VTX at 9:26 AM on August 9, 2016 [1 favorite]


The Earned Income Tax Credit.

The EITC was introduced by the Tax Reduction Act of 1975. It is written and sponsored by Democrat Albert Ullman of Oregon. There has been a some Republican support for it over the years as a strategy of reducing overall welfare spending, but it has been Democrats that have pushed and prodded the Republicans on the EITC.
posted by JackFlash at 9:26 AM on August 9, 2016 [12 favorites]


Regarding the accumulation of land specifically, and the estate tax, it's perhaps worth noting that very early in the history of the common law it became necessary to curtail the growth and maintenance of estates, evasion of their taxation on death, and the attempts to maintain them in perpetuity through restraints on alienation, which was bad for the state (the Crown, at the time) and the rest of society, and eventually became inconvenient even for the inheriting landholders. A huge amount of basic property law, which was the bulk of the early common law, was developed because of these issues.

Thus, the Rule Against Perpetuities, the Doctrine of Worthier Title, the Rule in Shelly's Case and so forth.

This is a basic concern that arises early in any property system that allows ownership of land and its inheritance. Especially in any society that wants to think of itself as an egalitarian, democratic meritocracy and not, say, a inter-generational oligarchy.

As the old saying in real estate goes, 'they're not making any more of it.' But we're still making more humans.
posted by snuffleupagus at 9:26 AM on August 9, 2016 [21 favorites]


if corb's hypothetical art collection has cultural value beyond its financial worth, it should be confiscated and placed in a museum for the benefit of the public.

I had responded to the initial question because I had hoped to explain something that a fellow mefite said they had difficulty understanding - not because I wanted to start an argument about What Is Better. I know that people who believe in liberal values often do not share what are ultimately very conservative ones - that they fall harder on the "assuring the public good at the expense of the private good" scale. It is neither my intention nor desire to convince you that your way is wrong.

If you want to understand why Republicans, or at least why conservatives like me think a certain way, I am more than happy to help. I am desperately sad over what seems like enormous gulfs of understanding in this country that we can't get over and that produce horrible election nightmares like the one we are experiencing. But I see a strong difference between trying to understand each other so that we can understand how we are divided, and just fighting about random political stances in the already enormous election thread.
posted by corb at 9:27 AM on August 9, 2016 [76 favorites]


As always, if anyone feels like they want to talk about said political stances in greater detail, or wants to hear a specific response to their query, my memail is open and I am always happy to hear from folk.
posted by corb at 9:29 AM on August 9, 2016 [12 favorites]


What is he doing with all of that money he raised last month? He isn't spending it on staff, he isn't spending it on ads, and he sure isn't spending it on a GOTV strategy.

10% of it is the campaign paying Trump to get Trump home by bedtime every night. Trump's HQ is in Trump Tower paying Manhattan real estate rates (Hillary is in Brooklyn where office space is cheaper). He's also spending a third of his money on media. He's not actually getting any ad buys or anything like that with that money, it looks like purely design and consulting work.
posted by Talez at 9:29 AM on August 9, 2016 [3 favorites]


Talez, where are you getting those numbers from? I'd be very interested in looking at them.
posted by kyrademon at 9:31 AM on August 9, 2016


What gets me all maddened is when someone dies with a gorgeous art collection that they loved dearly and wanted to pass on to their kids which has increased in value and not a lot of cash money, so the art collection has to be broken up and sold in order to pay the tax on the art collection. Or especially when someone has this wonderful family estate but is cash-poor, so they have to figure out how to sell off part of the land in order to pay the tax.

A lot of people are jumping on you for this, so I will preface this by saying that I am asking a sincere question. In fact, lemme ask it of the room - is there a way to actually find out how frequently this sort of thing actually happens?

Others before me have raised the issue of whether someone who has amassed a gorgeous art collection should keep it within the family, where no one but the family can see it. I'll offer the counterpoint that I once went to Hearst Castle, and there they claimed that Hearst felt that his privilege obligated him to collect as much art as he did - the very reason he was buying up 1st Century Roman temples and furniture from 14th-century European mansions was "I'm part of the privileged class that is able to afford going to Europe, whereas many others cannot - so I need to invest in bringing this stuff back to the United States so other people who CAN'T afford to go to Europe will be able to enjoy it."

On the other hand, though, Hearst didn't found a museum to house those artifacts; instead, he installed them in his own house, where it was still only a privileged few who could enjoy it anyway. Even today, it's $25.00 per person to get into the place, and when Hearst was alive the spot was probably invitation only. So Hearst's motivations may have been pure as all hell; but ultimately his actions worked against those motivations and ended up creating a tiny debt in the commons.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 9:32 AM on August 9, 2016 [1 favorite]


He's also spending a third of his money on media. He's not actually getting any ad buys or anything like that with that money, it looks like purely design and consulting work.

If MeFi allowed images I'd simply add the first Trump Pence logo after that comment. But to second kyrademon, where do these numbers come from please? I'd love to see them!
posted by Francis at 9:34 AM on August 9, 2016 [1 favorite]


The Guilford County, NC Board of Elections (which is made of of one Democrat and two Republicans) proposed a new early voting plan, as required by the recent district court ruling - but it was still pretty shitty. It cut the number of early voting sites in half from 2012. In particular it included no early voting sites at two of Greensboro's colleges, including N.C. A&T, the historically black college, and it had no Sunday voting.

The lone Democrat on the board had an alternative proposal, but it was going to be heard and voted on by the board in the middle of the day on a Monday, with no opportunity for public comment.

So hundreds of people showed up to protest this three-person meeting. And despite the fact that the Board still didn't allow for any official public comments, the Democrat's proposed plan passed. It actually includes more early voting sites and hours than the 2012 election had.

So why should you care?

Guilford County is the third most populous county in NC. It also leans Democratic, very much so in comparison to the rest of the state. Obama won 59.2% of the vote there in 2008 and 57.8% in 2012, and his victory in NC in 2008 was due to his overperformance in the handful of the most populous counties in NC, including Guilford County.

(Incidentally, Guilford County is also the site of the original Woolworth's sit-in.)
posted by showbiz_liz at 9:34 AM on August 9, 2016 [73 favorites]


An amusing result of these megathreads is that my favorited list sometimes show me who is catching up. (Hi, Tehhund!)
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 9:34 AM on August 9, 2016 [12 favorites]


when Hearst was alive the spot was probably invitation only

It was definitely invitation only. I clearly recall that being part of the anecdote about the butt-squirting patio benches. (Hearst liked to troll people in person, not just in print.)
posted by snuffleupagus at 9:35 AM on August 9, 2016


There has been a some Republican support for it over the years as a strategy of reducing overall welfare spending

Like, oh, Milton Friedman.

The GOP has a very love-hate relationship with the EITC, but most of its opposition comes from the simple-minded libertarians who don't understand how the EITC works to reduce welfare by not penalizing people with jobs for going off welfare. You talk to most standard-issue Republicans and they gladly support it. And the EITC exists because the alternative (basic income) wouldn't have made it through... a Democratic Congress in 1975... because it was too liberal.
posted by dw at 9:36 AM on August 9, 2016 [2 favorites]


10% of it is the campaign paying Trump to get Trump home by bedtime every night.

This reminds me, I had been wondering exactly how a President Trump would behave in a natural disaster or large casualty event. Can you imagine him going to some tornado-flattened town and listening to devastated people who voted for him, who are begging for his help? Talking to local officials about what they need? Giving a talk to raise morale? And then flying right back to the rebranded Trump House at 1600 Pennsylvania?

Of course not. Trump probably doesn't imagine it, either; if he has, he means to farm it out to Pence. He might be in the mood to give a speech if there was a villain to blame. But otherwise, he would be completely incapable of one of the few acts of emotional labor that men in public life really do have to perform. I don't like to pretend to know what the Founders thought, or that it is always relevant to our modern nation, but I am certain they never imagined the Presidency held by a man who would not spend a single night away from home.
posted by Countess Elena at 9:39 AM on August 9, 2016 [6 favorites]


If you want to understand why Republicans, or at least why conservatives like me think a certain way, I am more than happy to help.

I really appreciate this. Speaking from a progressive perspective, the thing that makes this usually go immediately off the rails is that so-called "conservatives" (which may not even include you, mind), can't even take for granted my basic humanity. So, it quickly devolves into a situation where I feel forced to literally eliminate their ability to cause me harm in the legislature, much less being able to have a nuanced policy discussion.
posted by odinsdream at 9:41 AM on August 9, 2016 [17 favorites]


This seems like rather awful logic to me - should Clinton woo everyone, no matter how vile or problematic, as long as they have some useful skill?

No, and this is a useless comparison. I didn't say "anyone" if they have a "useful" skill, because that would be stupid.

But the set of people with deep personal and historical knowledge of the global elites who make actual decisions around the world is very, very small. I see little reason to dismiss that knowledge because it comes from a moral monster. You're not obligated to do the monstrous things just because you get data from monster.

I'm much less comfortable with a president who does feel that way, honestly. I don't think you should, or can be, what we think of as a normal, moral human being to be able to wield the power and responsibility that resides in the Oval Office, and to think otherwise seems frankly childish. The drone program feels, deeply, like a moral monstrosity, but what is the alternative? That's not a rhetorical question; none of us know.

But someone has to be presented with those choices, and has to make them. I think anyone who dismisses data or experience or skills out of hand, because of their source, when faced with decisions of that magnitude, is probably unfit for office. I couldn't do it, but I'm not running for President.

I'm glad someone who listens is, though.
posted by schadenfrau at 9:43 AM on August 9, 2016 [8 favorites]


Incidentally, Guilford County is also the site of the original Woolworth's sit-in.

It's not at all incidental. The blood spilled in Greensboro by white supremacy and from PoC and their supporters is an ancient river that flows deep and fast.
posted by zombieflanders at 9:45 AM on August 9, 2016 [10 favorites]


The drone program feels, deeply, like a moral monstrosity, but what is the alternative? That's not a rhetorical question; none of us know.

Just gonna go out on a limb here and say "not using flying murder robots to kill people"
posted by Greg Nog at 9:46 AM on August 9, 2016 [19 favorites]


I know this is a stupid derail and it'll serve me right if it's deleted, but we haven't yet implemented those merit badges for comments not posted, and it's marginally relevant, so ...

> What if one very wealthy guy bought up all the Beatles songs and didn't allow anyone to play them but only played them in the privacy of his home? (I know this isn't possible, I'm just using this as an hypothetical question.)

Once Upon a Time in Shaolin, the final album by the Wu-Tang Clan, is owned by Martin Shkreli, everyone's favorite pharma asshole, and has never been performed commercially.
posted by RedOrGreen at 9:49 AM on August 9, 2016 [19 favorites]


Speaking of Trump's predilection towards sleeping at home, is there some kind of Trump Tracker map of his campaign stops somewhere? Not finding anything with a quick Google but my blood pressure can't take too deep a dive into these search results. Ever since I saw it pointed out a few weeks ago that he hasn't really left the east coast since the convention, I have been trying to keep an eye out to see how widely he's been travelling and it still seems to be limited.
posted by feloniousmonk at 9:50 AM on August 9, 2016


Hillary may not be the best natural debater, but she's very smart and very competitive. She's also going to have the best coaching in the world going into the debates, and I think she'll be smart enough to losten to her coaches.

Yes, she's running a traditional, even somewhat boring campaign—she's mostly getting out of the way and letting Trump make his own mistakes, rather than competing with him for the media spotlight. She's focusing on the nuts and bolts of campaigning, on the mechanics of organizing and mobilizing her constituency in the places where it matters most. In today's ultra-polarized political climate, where turnout matters as much as or more than persuasion, I really think that's the right thing to do.

But in the Fall, when the debates kick off, I think her staff is going to try to get her to use that venue as an opportunity to showcase her qualities as an individual, to let us see some of the character attributes that will make her a great president. The debates are an opportunity to show her strength as a person—something particularly hard for her due to the handicap that sexism imposes on her—and the way she can do that is by appearing as a poised, confident, well-prepared, unflappable rock against which Trump can smash himself. It will give her an opportunity to directly repudiate his falsehoods, to contrast his childishness against her maturity, and to expose the xenophobia and fear that drives hus campaign. I expect to see him thoroughly crushed and deflated, or at least reduced to frothing incoherency. If I were her, I'd be warming up already.
posted by Anticipation Of A New Lover's Arrival, The at 9:50 AM on August 9, 2016 [5 favorites]


Talez, where are you getting those numbers from? I'd be very interested in looking at them.

Open Secrets has a good disbursement summary.

Tag Air is Trump's private jet airline.
posted by Talez at 9:50 AM on August 9, 2016 [4 favorites]


What if Clinton keeps Kissinger in a glass box prison and occasionally asks for his thoughts on matters of geopolitical significance on the grounds that hey, evil genius is still genius

He would dispense useful information and cryptic aphorisms interspersed with mockery
posted by prize bull octorok at 9:51 AM on August 9, 2016 [22 favorites]


Just gonna go out on a limb here and say "not using flying murder robots to kill people"

Okay, but weren't drones used because we didn't want to risk soldiers and pilots? It kind of became a monkey paw wish, where clearly less American military lives are at risk but people are still dying.

So, if the wish is now not to use flying murder robots to kill people, it's probably going to be monkey pawed into having flying robots scoop people up and throw them in hidden prisons away from public sight. WISH GRANTED!
posted by FJT at 9:51 AM on August 9, 2016 [5 favorites]


Who would Team Hillary get to play Trump in mock debates?
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 9:53 AM on August 9, 2016


Huh. So, largely unnoticed because it was in the same end-of-July interview where Trump slandered the Khans, Trump said he believes Romney lost because he released his tax returns. Which is ... deranged on so many levels.
posted by kyrademon at 9:53 AM on August 9, 2016 [3 favorites]


I think it's morally wrong to force children to sell the things someone has spent a lifetime building (land, valuables) in order to pay the government.

In the American context, this is a fascinating and difficult topic.

As I've suggested here a few times, a huge amount of individual private property ownership in the USA begins with some kind of grant or subsidy from the state, whether it's a homestead or an underwritten mortgage or a tax incentive. After a few generations, the initial assistance is forgotten. Yes, the homesteading model was based upon granting something considered abundant (undeveloped land without title) in exchange for something scarcer: a willingness to settle and improve it. Yes, the GI Bill was a peace dividend and a reward for service. But it's all part of a grand American political mechanism to turn various groups of people into property owners, which you can only do when you literally appropriate -- that is, turn into property -- a vast continent that had supported an indigenous population without it being treated as property.

In that context, Jefferson's "the earth belongs in usufruct to the living" remains an astonishingly radical statement over 200 years after it was written, befitting someone from a newly-independent settler nation writing from revolutionary Paris while the old inherited hierarchies of wealth and power were being challenged around him. His argument that societies should govern in the interest of the living (as a whole) and not the dead -- and his objection to both inherited wealth and inherited indebtedness where it binds the living -- also extends to the generational binding powers of a constitution.
posted by holgate at 9:54 AM on August 9, 2016 [52 favorites]


Who would Team Hillary get to play Trump in mock debates?

Gotta be Bill, right?
posted by dersins at 9:56 AM on August 9, 2016 [6 favorites]


What if Clinton keeps Kissinger in a glass box prison and occasionally asks for his thoughts on matters of geopolitical significance on the grounds that hey, evil genius is still genius

Nope. You're not gonna trick me into dignifying Kissinger by comparing him with Loki, even if I love the idea of Clinton baiting him into a sexist tirade that inadvertently reveals all the Republicans' evil plans.
posted by straight at 9:56 AM on August 9, 2016 [3 favorites]


Once Upon a Time in Shaolin, the final album by the Wu-Tang Clan, is owned by Martin Shkreli, everyone's favorite pharma asshole, and has never been performed commercially.

They should re-remix it with the left and right channels reversed, call it Shaolin Foreverafter, and distribute it for free. Fuck that twerp.
posted by snuffleupagus at 9:56 AM on August 9, 2016 [3 favorites]


Once Upon a Time in Shaolin, the final album by the Wu-Tang Clan, is owned by Martin Shkreli, everyone's favorite pharma asshole, and has never been performed commercially.

It’s worth remembering, too, that this was always the plan for the album. The Wu-Tang are mad that a jerk like Shkreli bought it, but this was specifically their intent - one owner who gets to call all of the shots.
posted by Going To Maine at 9:57 AM on August 9, 2016 [2 favorites]


True. They do indeed seem less than pleased with how it worked out, though. I guess that's how the cookie crumbles, but ugh.
posted by snuffleupagus at 9:59 AM on August 9, 2016 [1 favorite]


Gotta be Bill, right?

Yep. Bill would love hamming it up. Or could be another Bill. I could see William Shatner showing up on request.
posted by honestcoyote at 9:59 AM on August 9, 2016 [6 favorites]


I think we're going to have to agree to disagree on that one.

It's hard to argue against the interstate system as a grand scheme, but running interstates through the middle of cities -- almost always by levelling minority communities -- was a choice that didn't need to be taken, especially if you look at how contemporary European high-speed road networks were built between cities and not through them.
posted by holgate at 9:59 AM on August 9, 2016 [16 favorites]


Who would Team Hillary get to play Trump in mock debates?
Oh, it would definitely be Tim Kaine, believe me.
posted by dfan at 10:01 AM on August 9, 2016 [15 favorites]


What if Clinton keeps Kissinger in a glass box prison

I just remembered this is actually a plotline in Futurama
posted by Greg Nog at 10:01 AM on August 9, 2016 [9 favorites]


Fascinating link, Talez. The top spend is on the agency who ran theSwift Boat Vets canpaign...
posted by Devonian at 10:01 AM on August 9, 2016 [7 favorites]


schadenfrau: The drone program feels, deeply, like a moral monstrosity, but what is the alternative? That's not a rhetorical question; none of us know.

Greg Nog: Just gonna go out on a limb here and say "not using flying murder robots to kill people"


While I am also completely against the drone program, I think shadenfrau meant more along the lines of "What bad things would the terrorist leaders killed by the drone program have done if they had lived, and does preventing that morally outweigh using remote killing robots?" or "What would be the consequences of assassinating those terrorist leaders using other means like elite soldiers." This is an incredibly difficult question, possibly starting with should the US government even be assassinating people at all no matter how "evil" they are, but my point is there are some arguments that can be made in favor of the drone program by reasonable people who hold reasonable values that happen to differ from mine.
posted by Mayhembob at 10:01 AM on August 9, 2016 [8 favorites]


I submit that inherited wealth has played a major part in the problem of our current election. The Party of Thurmond's nominee received massive financial support from his father, while the father was alive and after he died. The inherited wealth allowed said nominee to see himself as a self-made man while simultaneously allowing him far more influence and a larger platform than a run-of-the-mill bully.

Similar descriptions could easily be applied to Charles and David Koch, George W. Bush, and Mitt Romney (who all seem like more decent human beings than the Republican nominee and don't seem to bully people in public). On the Democratic side, John Kerry has likely benefited from his wife's inherited fortune.

Definitely not a fan of massive, tax-free asset transfers to descendants because it perpetuates structural wealth inequality. I think the wealth has to move around through the economy to be useful.
posted by Excommunicated Cardinal at 10:02 AM on August 9, 2016 [22 favorites]


Gotta be Bill, right?

This keeps coming up. After watching Bill play with balloons at the DNC, I can't see him doing it. I don't think you can gawk in starry-eyed childlike wonder at balloons like that and still have enough venom left in your soul to properly perform Trump attempting to take Hillary Clinton down.

Darrell Hammond? No. Hammond's Trump is idiosyncratic, a mellow, dopey version of Trump that doesn't resemble the hateful demagogue he currently presents as.

They should call in Taran Killam. His Trump was never quite as funny as Hammond's but there is a weird, unpleasant darkness to his best SNL characters and I think he could spit the necessary acid.
posted by prize bull octorok at 10:05 AM on August 9, 2016 [4 favorites]




Also everybody knows the only morally acceptable way to use robots in warfare is to make them extremely large and anthropomorphic and to have angsty teenagers operating them from inside the chest cavity
posted by prize bull octorok at 10:08 AM on August 9, 2016 [47 favorites]


> I think shadenfrau meant more along the lines of "What bad things would the terrorist leaders killed by the drone program have done if they had lived, and does preventing that morally outweigh using remote killing robots?" or "What would be the consequences of assassinating those terrorist leaders using other means like elite soldiers."

That feels like a hell of a dodge. By that logic, whenever anyone says “we should stop doing X,” you could sow doubt by saying, “look, we honestly don’t know what the alternatives to X are, and what their unintended consequences would be, because in this universe we chose to do X.”

The other half of it makes sense — let’s try to quantify the risk versus the reward of each option, and do whichever one gives us the best outcome — but framing it your way reinforces the status quo side even more than usual. Just because we have a better sense of the numbers with option X doesn’t mean that we should prefer it over the uncertainty of option Y.
posted by savetheclocktower at 10:09 AM on August 9, 2016 [1 favorite]


Who would Team Hillary get to play Trump in mock debates?

I hear they're sending someone to Arkham to set up auditions.
posted by PlusDistance at 10:11 AM on August 9, 2016 [3 favorites]


The only issue now is whether Donald Trump is going to show up to debate at the date, times, places and formats set by the commission last year through a bipartisan process. We will accept the commission's invitation and expect Donald Trump to do the same.

Oh, snap! There's a shot right across Trump's dominance-politics-playing bow. Now if he bows out, he's a chicken; if he shows up, he's doing as he was told. Well played, Team Clinton!
posted by Gelatin at 10:14 AM on August 9, 2016 [18 favorites]


> "Open Secrets has a good disbursement summary."

Interesting.

Trump: 39.3% Media ($20.1 Million)
Clinton: 43.4% Media ($74.8 Million)

Trump: No Comparable Category
Clinton: 27% Salaries ($46.6 Million)

Trump: 19% Administrative ($9.7 Million)
Clinton: 11.6% Administrative ($19.9 Million)

Trump: 15.3% Unclassifiable ($7.8 Million)
Clinton: 4.4% Unclassifiable ($7.6 Million)

Trump: 9.1% All Other ($4.7 Million)
Clinton: 6.4% All Other ($11.1 Million)

Trump: 8.9% Strategy and Research ($4.6 Million)
Clinton: No Comparable Category

Trump: 8.5% Campaign Expenses ($4.3 Million)
Clinton: No Comparable Category

Trump: No Comparable Category
Clinton: 7.1% Fundraising ($12.3 Million)
posted by kyrademon at 10:14 AM on August 9, 2016 [5 favorites]


Who would Team Hillary get to play Trump in mock debates?

I would choose Sen. Al Franken myself.
posted by ZeusHumms at 10:15 AM on August 9, 2016 [9 favorites]


Playing Trump in the debates isn't about an impression of mannerisms the way an SNL performer would do - it's who can most convincingly respond in the way he would, who would seek to interrupt Hillary constantly, answer questions illogically though grounded in his "positions", etc.

Watch how he is in interviews - he constantly interrupts with an "excuse me, EXCUSE ME!" and then the journalists typically stop talking and let him go on. How Hillary responds to this will be interesting... gotta strike the right balance between assertiveness/aggression/exasperation with incompetence, but not come across as "shrill" (nb - not saying this is fair, but we all recognise the unfair gendered expectations Hillary will have to confront, esp if trying to strip away more of Trump's base).

How the candidate responds to the other candidate often seems more important than what they do independently - remember how Obama just calmly sat there while McCain wandered around the stage in an attempt to dominate the space, but instead just looked confused?
posted by modernnomad at 10:15 AM on August 9, 2016 [20 favorites]


After the last round, I no longer understand how manners are supposed to work in presidential debates at all. Constant interruptions of others and talking over the moderators. It seems to be a dominance game now, and the time limits are about as well observed as speed limits.
posted by Countess Elena at 10:20 AM on August 9, 2016 [7 favorites]


I just got the following email from the Sanders folks:

roomthreeseventeen:

Many of you already know that I've endorsed a candidate, Tim Canova, who is challenging the former head of the Democratic Party Debbie Wasserman Schultz in Florida.

This race is very important for Our Revolution because if we can win this tough fight in Florida, it will send a clear message about the power of our grassroots movement that will send shockwaves through the political and media establishments. The latest poll shows us within reach.

July 31 Poll
Debbie Wasserman Schultz: 46%
Tim Canova: 38%
Undecided: 16%

This is going to be close. Please chip in to Tim Canova's campaign so that we can get as many voters to the polls as possible before the August 30th primary:

posted by roomthreeseventeen at 10:21 AM on August 9, 2016 [2 favorites]


How the candidate responds to the other candidate often seems more important than what they do independently

I thought Hillary did pretty well up against Sanders, who had a finger-wagging EXCUSE ME attitude, although he's far more polite than Trump. She didn't seem that fazed by it. I expect them to have someone to practice with who interrupts, insults, cajoles and mocks, and to have her work on the most effective strategy with Trump, which is keeping your cool and making him look like a baby.
posted by dis_integration at 10:21 AM on August 9, 2016 [7 favorites]


I really don't understand the fauxtrage over, like, "murder robots" or whatever.

Look, I would love it if the United States military did a shitload less killing, but the fact is that this is a thing that the US military has done, is doing, and almost certainly will continue to do.

Other than offering differing levels of precision and risk-to-US-military-lives, what fucking difference does it make if this killing is done by "flying murder robot" or "dudes with M4 rifles and night vision goggles" or "guy pressing button in cockpit of B2 bomber?"

Again, I am not defending the killing thing, but why this extra special level of "OMG EVIL" over what amounts to no more than remote control plane / helicopter things?
posted by dersins at 10:21 AM on August 9, 2016 [23 favorites]


Radicals with badges: Mark Potok explains why renegade sheriffs are a growing threat in the U.S.:

You mentioned that the roots of this movement are very racist. Do you think race continues to play a role in the existence of these kinds of sovereign citizen and sovereign law enforcement movements?


No, I don’t think that race or anti-Semitism really play any part in this anymore. Certainly I would not accuse Richard Mack of being an anti-Semite or a racist. I think he does have extremely radical ideas, but they are built around the idea that the federal government is about to steal away all of our freedoms and so on. So the scary thing about Richard Mack and CSPOA is not that they’re out there, like some of the groups we cover at the Southern Poverty Law Center, trying to start a race war or whatever it may be, but the idea of creating real conflicts, sometimes armed conflicts, among the citizens of this country.

It’s worth remembering that Richard Mack and the CSPOA very much backed the family of Cliven Bundy and the hundreds of militiamen who supported him in defying the federal government in April of 2014. That whole standoff that occurred on Bundy’s ranch in Nevada very nearly came to a serious bloodshed. There were a very large number of the followers of Bundy who actually got to the point of pointing semi-automatic weapons at the heads of law enforcement officials. So it’s a dangerous game.

It is highly likely that some of these people are taking to heart Trump's message of a rigged/stolen election. The GOP and Trump are being extremely reckless in their rhetoric. Irrespective of who wins, I am increasingly worried about post-November America.
posted by palindromic at 10:22 AM on August 9, 2016 [32 favorites]


Next you will tell me that Abraham Lincoln was a Republican. The question is why NeverTrumpers are still clinging to the Republican Party today, when the Party hasn't had any good ideas for half a century.

But he was a Republican?

Look, JackFlash, I get that you want to get your hate on the Republican Party. I'm not stopping you here. The modern GOP is a fetid morass of mendacious pigfuckers.

But there's a difference between the very vague, wide, somewhat nebulous descriptor that is "the right" and "conservatism" and the Republican Party. Just like how there's a very big difference between "the left" and "liberalism" and the Democratic Party.

To say that the "right" has not contributed some ideas to governance is to discount actual evidence--something that the Republican Party is known for, as well as the fringe Left.
posted by qcubed at 10:23 AM on August 9, 2016 [7 favorites]


You're not gonna trick me into dignifying Kissinger by comparing him with Loki

Hmm, I immediately assumed Hannibal Lector in the glass box prison. I guess I'm out of touch with MCU or Norse legend.
posted by chris24 at 10:25 AM on August 9, 2016 [1 favorite]


Definitely not a fan of massive, tax-free asset transfers to descendants because it perpetuates structural wealth inequality. I think the wealth has to move around through the economy to be useful.

I'll argue the other side to some extent here, because I think corb taps into a legitimate sentiment about inheritance, which is tied to broader economic and social anxiety.

Baby Boomers collectively represent a kind of repository for late 20th-century American economic prosperity -- home equity, final salary pensions, Social Security obligations, personal investments -- but they also face uncertainty in old age. They live in suburbs or small towns even as they lose the capacity to drive safely, and may have to consider selling their homes and liquidating other assets to cover medical needs, assisted living or home care.

At the same time, the children and grandchildren of Boomers have a much higher debt load from college, and face the prospect of increasing rents or high barriers to get on the property ladder, along with more uncertainty about their long-term career prospects. Even if you're fortunate enough to have Boomer parents or grandparents who are comfortable in retirement, you can't reasonably expect them to tap deep into their savings to support you, because they don't know their own futures.

Inheritance on a small scale is also seen as a way to preserve social cohesion and continuity in places where that's under pressure. It's potentially a way to stay in the place you come from if the property market has become too hot to support local buyers versus those with wealth from elsewhere.

That's why it's a difficult topic: the way in which inheritance is perceived may not match up with how it actually works, especially in a country where the Walton spawn are collectively worth $150bn for choosing their ancestors wisely, but for many families it's considered a generational buoyancy aid, and small-scale inheritance has deep roots in the American mythos.
posted by holgate at 10:26 AM on August 9, 2016 [15 favorites]




Other than offering differing levels of precision and risk-to-US-military-lives, what fucking difference does it make if this killing is done by "flying murder robot" or "dudes with M4 rifles and night vision goggles" or "guy pressing button in cockpit of B2 bomber?"

I believe that the "risk to US military lives" bit is actually a strong argument against drones. Because:

* If engaging in war has a really heavy price tag when it comes to "potential death to soldiers", then it sets up war as something that you really wanna think about before you do it.
* On the other hand, if war means "drones" and the risk to soldiers' lives is minimal, then that creates a situation where military aggression ain't no thang for us, and we may be more likely to use military aggression as a result.

I want risk to US Military lives - because that puts a check on the hawks in our governments' inclination to be hawkish.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 10:28 AM on August 9, 2016 [19 favorites]


The question is why NeverTrumpers are still clinging to the Republican Party today, when the Party hasn't had any good ideas for half a century.

As far as clinging to the Republican Party, I have no fucking clue. I noped out of even coming close to supporting them in the closing months of 2001/2002, and watching their behavior over the past 16 years more or less solidified that; I can't honestly understand why a reasonable person would still be a member of the Party except out of misguided tribalism that outweighs pragmatism and sanity.

But again. the GOP doesn't represent all of the right. It never has.
posted by qcubed at 10:30 AM on August 9, 2016 [1 favorite]


Again, I am not defending the killing thing, but why this extra special level of "OMG EVIL" over what amounts to no more than remote control plane / helicopter things?

It further removes the killers from the act, and also in a way the responsibility of killing. I don't think drones are more evil, in the way something like using gas weapons is. But I think their use should be banned by an international treaty because they make killing too easy, and change the equation of how often the government decides to pull the trigger.
posted by Mayhembob at 10:30 AM on August 9, 2016 [12 favorites]


* If engaging in war has a really heavy price tag when it comes to "potential death to soldiers", then it sets up war as something that you really wanna think about before you do it.
* On the other hand, if war means "drones" and the risk to soldiers' lives is minimal, then that creates a situation where military aggression ain't no thang for us, and we may be more likely to use military aggression as a result.

I want risk to US Military lives - because that puts a check on the hawks in our governments' inclination to be hawkish.


This is a totally reasonable hypothesis--one that seems to me to be totally plausible. But is there any data to support it? Because unless there is data to back it up, it remains nothing more than a hypothesis.
posted by dersins at 10:32 AM on August 9, 2016 [4 favorites]


> That's why it's a difficult topic: the way in which inheritance is perceived may not match up with how it actually works, especially in a country where the Walton spawn are collectively worth $150bn for choosing their ancestors wisely, but for many families it's considered a generational buoyancy aid, and small-scale inheritance has deep roots in the American mythos.

Well but okay it's also necessary to sort of keep one's eye on the ball in this case, since on the one hand we're discussing the estate tax and on the other hand we're discussing small-scale inheritance.

Since inheritors get the first 10 million free there is no non-specious relationship between small-scale inheritance and the estate tax, unless you consider like 12 million dollar estates to be small-scale.
posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 10:35 AM on August 9, 2016 [23 favorites]


I'm much less comfortable with a president who does feel that way, honestly. I don't think you should, or can be, what we think of as a normal, moral human being to be able to wield the power and responsibility that resides in the Oval Office, and to think otherwise seems frankly childish.

I don't think it's childish to find this statement profoundly and deeply disturbing. No one is superhuman and being elected president - or any major political office - should not mean that you get to step out of what is normal human morality or decency. The president is not elected to be god for 4 years. They are elected to lead the country in tandem with other branches of the government (well, if the other branches allow them to) and not to stand as some higher moral authority with apparently miraculous abilities to just judge things purely, cleanly, and without prejudice, a feat which no human being has ever achieved.
posted by lesbiassparrow at 10:35 AM on August 9, 2016 [2 favorites]


How liberals helped enable the rise of Trump

I enjoy this genre of nonsense much more than I should, because it's always so desperate and pleading. We could have had Ted Cruz if you just eased up in the political correctness, guys!



That article was the perfect place to try my shiny new find-replace "PC" --> "treating people with respect culture" mental Internet-filter:

"And yes, it's absolutely true that a lot of so-called anti-treating people with respect culture rhetoric is just racism or trolling"

"And you can bet they're going to just love a guy who goes up against every single treating-people-with-respect-culture taboo (yes, including ones that are taboos for very good reasons). They might not agree with everything he says, but they like that he's saying it."
posted by tivalasvegas at 10:36 AM on August 9, 2016 [6 favorites]


I want risk to US Military lives - because that puts a check on the hawks in our governments' inclination to be hawkish.

This is a totally reasonable hypothesis--one that seems to me to be totally plausible. But is there any data to support it? Because unless there is data to back it up, it remains nothing more than a hypothesis.


Has the US been using drone strikes long enough to gather meaningful data? It seems intuitively clear that constituents are less likely to support war if it means putting lives at risk (just look back at the past decade of politicians' speeches that mention that phrase or some variant).
posted by Mayhembob at 10:37 AM on August 9, 2016


To say that the "right" has not contributed some ideas to governance is to discount actual evidence

So where is that evidence? The best anyone here has been able to come up with goes back almost a half century. Conservatives have nothing to contribute to political policy. The country and the world would be a better place if they did not exist.

A better place would be a new two-party system which included the traditional Democratic Party and a left Progressive Party. Conservatives have no place in a better world. They want the status quo or reversal to some imagined idyllic past.
posted by JackFlash at 10:37 AM on August 9, 2016 [2 favorites]


I think debating whether drone warfare is especially evil in itself distracts from debating whether the United States should operate an imperialistic foreign policy which includes an assassination program that kills more civilians than "terrorists."
posted by Rustic Etruscan at 10:38 AM on August 9, 2016 [17 favorites]


I think it's morally wrong to force children to sell the things someone has spent a lifetime building (land, valuables) in order to pay the government.

I think it's morally monstrous to privilege the right of children of multimillionaires to inherit vast wealth they did nothing to earn, over the right of children who actually need money for food and shelter. I can't see how anyone's conscience lets them argue that breaking up an art collection is worse than the many lives that money could save.
posted by Proofs and Refutations at 10:40 AM on August 9, 2016 [52 favorites]


Trump is going to anti-LGBT event in Orlando.
Ask the gays what they think and what they do...and then you tell me — who's your friend, Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton?
posted by kirkaracha at 10:41 AM on August 9, 2016 [2 favorites]


So where is that evidence? The best anyone here has been able to come up with goes back almost a half century.

The original formulation of the question placed zero time limits. Note the pains I've taken to agree that in recent years that idea trove has been, more or less, bankrupt.

Conservatives have nothing to contribute to political policy. The country and the world would be a better place if they did not exist.

Man, I always thought I was being a horrid asshole saying that entire groups of people should not exist. At least you're owning it.

A better place would be a new two-party system which included the traditional Democratic Party and a left Progressive Party. Conservatives have no place in a better world. They want the status quo or reversal to some imagined idyllic past.

The traditional Democratic Party would then be the conservatives, though... I mean, they're fairly conservative now...
posted by qcubed at 10:44 AM on August 9, 2016 [7 favorites]


Well but okay it's also necessary to sort of keep one's eye on the ball in this case, since on the one hand we're discussing the estate tax and on the other hand we're discussing small-scale inheritance.

Of course. It's the same conflation that made "Joe The Plumber" an advocate against a tax rate he was never likely to pay at his current income, but maybe in a couple of years... The "temporarily embarrassed millionaires" quote assigned to Steinbeck is apocryphal, but that doesn't make it any less applicable to American politics.
posted by holgate at 10:44 AM on August 9, 2016 [1 favorite]


Speaking of the staff, not only is his numbers minuscule in comparison to Clinton's, they all seem to be incredibly incompetent. For example, yesterday speaking in front of the Detroit Economic Club on Monday his prepared speech stated that Detroit is a city controlled by Democrats at "every level." Michigan has a Republican Governor and a Republican controlled House and Senate.

Plus, you know, the fact that the Republican governor of Michigan appointed what amounts to a modern-day procurator to subvert the democratic will of the largely African-American people of Detroit.

A quick Google would have not gone amiss when you are writing a speech that will be read and parsed Nation-wide. Are his speech writers that incompetent, that lazy, or are they so underpaid they don't give a shit?

What we see here is the complex interplay of incompetence, subconscious resistance and subtle acts of intentional defiance. That's our Meredith!
posted by tivalasvegas at 10:46 AM on August 9, 2016 [10 favorites]


I want risk to US Military lives - because that puts a check on the hawks in our governments' inclination to be hawkish.

Isn't the trend the opposite though? I think it's true that even before drones, war technology advances have focused on the ability to neutralize people and resources of the enemy while minimizing your own losses. Yet, this hasn't caused more war to happen, we're at a relatively peaceful era with less violence occurring.
posted by FJT at 10:46 AM on August 9, 2016


Conservatives have nothing to contribute to political policy. The country and the world would be a better place if they did not exist.

No it wouldn't. Conservatives exist so that progressives can't get too stupid and vice versa. Each group pushes back on the other if the other goes too far.
posted by Talez at 10:47 AM on August 9, 2016 [20 favorites]


Conservatives have nothing to contribute to political policy.

Nonsense. Brexit would have been avoided if there was a clearer voice for the status quo.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 10:47 AM on August 9, 2016 [10 favorites]


The drone program has been problematic since its inception, not least because:

1. There is no public oversight or open policy discussion on the use of drones. Drones have been used to carry out extralegal execution of American citizens, for example, and when you have a President suspend habeas corpus, that's openly controversial. Doubly so when Congress has not authorized war.

2. Drones increase the extent to which our wars are privatized, by replacing more of the public war-fighting element—human beings—with commodity products we buy from one or another arms dealer.

3. As an adjunct, the public is further removed from involvement in its wars by deploying drones. A public that doesn't have to fight its wars is removed from the bloody consequences both physically and morally, which makes it easier to look aside when innocent people are killed.

4. Drones further establish the power imbalance over the people that we target drones against, which leads to increased global terrorism.

I mean, we're far afield of the subject at hand, but it is pretty and plainly ridiculous to suggest that use of drones is not controversial, or that the use of drones by whoever is elected President would not still be controversial.
posted by a lungful of dragon at 10:48 AM on August 9, 2016 [15 favorites]


At the same time, the children and grandchildren of Boomers have a much higher debt load from college, and face the prospect of increasing rents or high barriers to get on the property ladder, along with more uncertainty about their long-term career prospects. Even if you're fortunate enough to have Boomer parents or grandparents who are comfortable in retirement, you can't reasonably expect them to tap deep into their savings to support you, because they don't know their own futures.

These people you cite will never pay a dime of estate tax, so why are they worried about it. Under current law parents can give each of their 10 (!) children a million dollars each tax-free. You don't think that million dollars is enough of a head start for your children?
posted by JackFlash at 10:48 AM on August 9, 2016 [6 favorites]


Conservatives have no place in a better world.

I keep trying to respond to this, but whoof - what a statement. I think I'm just going to leave it at that - people exist, whether you want them to or not, and it's a lot easier to find ways to get them invested in the world you want them to create than to just wish them gone.
posted by corb at 10:49 AM on August 9, 2016 [89 favorites]


> I expect them to have someone to practice with who interrupts, insults, cajoles and mocks, and to have her work on the most effective strategy with Trump, which is keeping your cool and making him look like a baby.

oh god i've got such a dorky analogy. I shouldn't post it. I'll post it.

hey remember the first Final Fantasy game, for the original NES? Remember how your first quest is fighting this Garland guy who was kind of weak and silly? and you beat him, of course, and he runs away, then you spend a huge amount of time slowly leveling up and eventually fighting dragons and giants and elemental gods and whatever, and then eventually you learn that the big bad is this thing called Chaos, but when you finally confront him you learn that — oh em gee! — Chaos is actually Garland, that scrub you fought at the start who you've totally forgotten about!

okay now remember Clinton/Lazio in 2000. We already know Clinton's great at exploiting the aggressiveness of loudmouth New York bros to get them to do campaign-wreckingly stupid shit — we saw her do it back in 2000, it was like literally the first political skill Clinton deployed back in the day.

Trump is the apotheosis of Lazio. He's Chaos to Lazio's Garland. But he's still just a loudmouth New York bro. Clinton's got this.

alternate dorky analogy: expecting to beat Clinton with loudmouth bro-ness is like trying to kill Dr. Manhattan by removing his intrinsic field.
posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 10:50 AM on August 9, 2016 [13 favorites]


Maybe losing Military lives was a preventative back when we had a draft, but I wonder if it has any effect when the military is "volunteer".
posted by wittgenstein at 10:51 AM on August 9, 2016 [4 favorites]


I want risk to US Military lives - because that puts a check on the hawks in our governments' inclination to be hawkish.

Losing US military lives has never been a check on the hawks or their inclination to be hawkish. Viet-fucking-nam QED.
posted by Talez at 10:52 AM on August 9, 2016 [15 favorites]


> "I mean, we're far afield of the subject at hand ..."

I would like to state, for the record, that I am strongly opposed to the use of drones against Evan McMullin.
posted by kyrademon at 10:52 AM on August 9, 2016 [14 favorites]


> Or especially when someone has this wonderful family estate but is cash-poor, so they have to figure out how to sell off part of the land in order to pay the tax.

For whatever a personal anecdote is worth, this has happened with neighbors of mine. They have a nice spread of land that has been owned by the family since it was given to them by Lord Fairfax. Selling the land is not the only option, these neighbors have greatly reducing their tax liabilities by donating parts of it to the county for public parks, and putting other parts into conservation trusts to retain both their ownership with historical and environmental benefits to the community. That seems like a pretty fair trade.

Of course, the other option for land-rich, cash-poor family is to put unproductive assets to work. This particular family has recently built a business on their land to provide income and jobs, a concept that I thought was pretty well favored by conservatives. They now have a successful winery to which supports the family and secures their private ownership, bringing economic benefits to the wider community while preserving the rural character and cultural history of the land. That seems like a win-win compared to hundreds of acres of very pretty land sitting idle.

But the bigger picture is that I don't think it's a particularly American ideal that we should give preferential tax treatment to their family assets that were built by their slave-owning ancestors, who were granted the land by a English Lord, who received the land for political patronage from the King of England. But that's just me I guess.
posted by peeedro at 10:53 AM on August 9, 2016 [35 favorites]


I keep trying to respond to this, but whoof - what a statement. I think I'm just going to leave it at that - people exist, whether you want them to or not, and it's a lot easier to find ways to get them invested in the world you want them to create than to just wish them gone.

I mean, I'm not a conservative, but it's also hard for me to hear something like this. Wishing entire groups out of existence is something I tend to only think, very briefly, in fits of rage; it's the basest, darkest instinct that's borne of vengeance, not rationality.

Saying entire groups of people should not exist is exactly the kind of rhetoric I've heard said about my kind. In many different formulations.
posted by qcubed at 10:53 AM on August 9, 2016 [26 favorites]


Jeet Heer of the New Republic says that we should be prepared for an October surprise, courtesy of the twin Kings of the Ninth Circle of Hell, Roger Stone and Julian Assange.
posted by holborne at 10:54 AM on August 9, 2016 [2 favorites]


holgate: Inheritance on a small scale is also seen as a way to preserve social cohesion and continuity in places where that's under pressure. It's potentially a way to stay in the place you come from if the property market has become too hot to support local buyers versus those with wealth from elsewhere.

Small-scale inheritance makes sense in this light; however, what counts as a 'small' estate is between 5 and 10 million dollars, so conflating the two is...perilous in my mind.

That's why it's a difficult topic: the way in which inheritance is perceived may not match up with how it actually works, especially in a country where the Walton spawn are collectively worth $150bn for choosing their ancestors wisely, but for many families it's considered a generational buoyancy aid, and small-scale inheritance has deep roots in the American mythos.

This argument seems like a great case for a progressive estate tax. Under such a scheme, I could be open to the current, erm, state of the estate tax, where 5-10 million is exempt since clearly, not everyone is going to agree on the extent to which inheritance should(n't) be taxed (as is evident in this thread). Very complex topic.
posted by Excommunicated Cardinal at 10:54 AM on August 9, 2016 [2 favorites]


Hell, do you think Cheney was thinking of US military lives when he dragged us into Iraq? No. He was thinking of the massive fucking payday for Haliburton.
posted by Talez at 10:54 AM on August 9, 2016 [10 favorites]




[Folks, maybe let's steer things back toward the election and away from drones, etc. Also: please DON'T flag tons of comments, it actually inhibits me looking at them effectively. If there are a lot you want to object to, come to the contact form.]
posted by LobsterMitten (staff) at 10:58 AM on August 9, 2016 [6 favorites]


> Again, I am not defending the killing thing, but why this extra special level of "OMG EVIL" over what amounts to no more than remote control plane / helicopter things?

DHS wants Silicon Valley to develop drones with facial recognition technology: "The machines would look for questionable activity, scan faces of suspects and compare them against a database for prior criminal history..." and then kill them.

> I want risk to US Military lives - because that puts a check on the hawks in our governments' inclination to be hawkish.

Proposal: keep the nuclear launch codes in an innocent volunteer's chest-cavity: "what if the codes to launch nuclear war were kept inside the chest-cavity of a young volunteer, and the President would have to hack them out of this young man's chest before he could commence armageddon?"

> Jefferson's "the earth belongs in usufruct to the living" remains an astonishingly radical statement over 200 years after it was written...

fwiw, just learned this about silvio gesell: "He considered himself a world citizen and was inspired by Henry George to believe that the Earth should belong to all people, regardless of race, gender, class, wealth, religion and age and that borders should be made obsolete. His land reform proposal is essentially what is known presently as Georgism... This included the removal of all legal and inherited privileges."
posted by kliuless at 11:00 AM on August 9, 2016 [8 favorites]


I want to thank corb for sticking with us despite our obvious tendencies.

Also, what happened with the RNC balloons?
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 11:01 AM on August 9, 2016 [37 favorites]


shadenfrau

The user's name is shadenfrau actually, though shadenfreude is quite an excellent descriptor of my mood rn
posted by tivalasvegas at 11:02 AM on August 9, 2016


At what point do the various leaders of the western world call Quito and go, "Look, if Assange ends up giving us President Trump, your only trading partner will be the US, and you'll be as much a pariah as they are."
posted by dw at 11:02 AM on August 9, 2016


> Who would Team Hillary get to play Trump in mock debates?

Jesus, these election threads:

Clinton's debate rehearsals are gonna be interesting. Wonder who's gonna play Trump.
posted by prize bull octorok at 8:06 PM on June 1 [has favorites +] [!]

Here's a fun thing to ponder (that I just found myself wondering) during the next few days: Who would make an effective stand-in for Trump during Clinton's mock debates in prep for the actual debates?
posted by dry white toast at 3:10 PM on July 18 [has favorites +] [!]
posted by peeedro at 11:02 AM on August 9, 2016 [2 favorites]


> "... what if the codes to launch nuclear war were kept inside the chest-cavity of a young volunteer, and the President would have to hack them out of this young man's chest before he could commence armageddon?"

TRUMP: Gimme the axe!
AIDE: What? We're not even at war!
TRUMP: I'm not gonna launch now, I just want to see 'em! Gimme the axe!
posted by kyrademon at 11:05 AM on August 9, 2016 [15 favorites]


Jesus, these election threads:

If there is a silver lining, it's that everyone gets talked out by election day and that thread will be pretty quiet.
posted by mazola at 11:06 AM on August 9, 2016 [7 favorites]


I think if we're going to be comparing Trump to Final Fantasy villains he's probably Ultros, specifically his use of LV3 Muddle and Confuse and preference to targeting to Terra.

Oh and also he's a joke.
posted by Tevin at 11:10 AM on August 9, 2016 [7 favorites]


Also, what happened with the RNC balloons?

Oh man! Okay. So caveat, this is what I heard from hanging out with reporters - specifically, I ran into someone from 538 while I was finishing up an interview with Robert from Cracked, and they wound up getting into a conversation about the oddball stories they were being tasked with. (Thus why I didn't want to spoil the Cracked story, but it looks like it went to publication before the balloon drop, so thus missed the causal link). According to the Cracked reporter, he'd spent a lot of time investigating the balloons, specifically, and the facility was not actually really designed with the idea of having lots of balloons drop from the ceiling - so there was a lot of machine gunk and stuff there, and they were put up way, way early. His story wound up focusing on the idea of having these gross balloons fall on the gross convention, but I think it actually may explain why the balloons fell so weirdly, if they were put up there for a week and let to attach to gross gunk.
posted by corb at 11:12 AM on August 9, 2016 [33 favorites]


Does Trump actually fly back to NY to sleep every single night?
posted by arm426 at 11:12 AM on August 9, 2016


So, I had this weird dream a few days ago. You know the scene in Legend where Lily/Mia Sara gets the dancing dress and meets Darkness? I was there with Lily (who was wearing a less revealing version of the dress) and we were both concerned because that room we were in was actually under the RNC arena, and we could hear people applauding for Trump upstairs. Then Darkness came out of the mirror, much like in the film. He smiled his wicked smile at us and announced "He is here!" and pointed at the fireplace. Laibach's Leben heißt leben started playing loudly in the background, and Reince Priebus walked out of the fireplace. He just stood there silently, staring at us with that stupid smile of his while Darkness laughed, and I noticed the lyrics had changed "leben heißt leben" to '"Priebus! Reince Priebus!" (now I hear that song in my head every time I read his name or see his smug face on TV.) Lilly turned to me with a WTF look on her face and asked me "what does it mean?" and I told her that I didn't know and that I'd have check MeFi.

So I ask you, o' wise sages of the blue bean plate, on the off chance that I encounter Mia Sara again, what should I tell her?
posted by homunculus at 11:13 AM on August 9, 2016 [17 favorites]


[Several deleted, please drop the thing about "world would be better without" - it's fine to say you wish people would relinquish those views, no need to go down the road of how close to interpretable-as-eliminationist rhetoric we want to get.]
posted by LobsterMitten (staff) at 11:13 AM on August 9, 2016 [9 favorites]


Does Trump actually fly back to NY to sleep every single night?

I actually don't care one way or the other. I would do it if I were running for president and could afford to fly home and see my fiance and cat.
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 11:13 AM on August 9, 2016


Does Trump actually fly back to NY to sleep every single night?

Reportedly.
posted by OmieWise at 11:15 AM on August 9, 2016


Small-scale inheritance makes sense in this light; however, what counts as a 'small' estate is between 5 and 10 million dollars, so conflating the two is...perilous in my mind.

Like I suggested, that conflation is something you have to address, because the aspiration towards a considerably wealthier future (whether a few years' hence or for the next generation) and a willingness to support policies based on projection runs deep in American culture and politics. Conflation is how you get people on $40,000 household incomes voting for tax cuts that mostly benefit millionaires' non-wage income. Conflation is why people think Trump is the exemplary billionaire because they've seen his bullshitty reality show and pictures of his gaudy lifestyle.
posted by holgate at 11:16 AM on August 9, 2016 [4 favorites]


His story wound up focusing on the idea of having these gross balloons fall on the gross convention

Oh, I saw that. Didn't realize that was the explanation.

Does Trump actually fly back to NY to sleep every single night?

AFAICT. It's been brought up that it may be limiting his campaigning, which is based on personal rallies.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 11:17 AM on August 9, 2016 [2 favorites]


Causes of Trump: Economic or Political?
Contrary to what Boot might think, populists have a point. Elites are necessary, but just at this moment in American history, elites have a lot to answer for.


Consider that it was the political elite that got us into the Iraq War, a conflict now reviled by both parties. Do you recall any social or political movement demanding that Saddam Hussein be removed? Iraq was an elite project (re Boot, a foreign policy elite project) through and through. Elites leaned against more regulation from the 1980s onward and so weren’t looking out for ordinary citizens when the shadow banking sector got big. In one of their biggest failures that still doesn’t get enough attention, elites didn’t care to explain why they had to save the banks during the 2008 financial crisis and then didn’t hold anyone responsible. Elites produced endless budget dysfunction in Congress. Elites (one elite, John Boehner) didn’t allow immigration reform to proceed to a vote in the House, thus setting in motion a chain of events which aided Trump immensely. Elites created an impression among voters of DC gone wild and they hoped voters wouldn’t notice. But it’s not just immigration. Trump’s anti-policy platform, his claim to legitimacy, is constructed out of the many bridges to the voters that DC elites deliberately burned, starting with the Iraq War.
posted by the man of twists and turns at 11:17 AM on August 9, 2016 [4 favorites]


So when I was growing up the NUMBER ONE thing that we were NEVER TO DO was to negatively label a person's identity.

We could call out actions, sure. "Mom, Josh (my little brother) is being stupid / lying / bugging me", sure.

But:

"Josh is stupid"
"Josh is a liar"
"Josh is a pest"

No. go. Immediate tongue-lashing and/or grounding to ensue.

We're not fighting for the destruction of persons who are racist/sexist/xenophobic; we're condemning their racist/sexist/xenophobic actions and working to destroy racism, sexism and xenophobia themselves, insofar as that is possible.
posted by tivalasvegas at 11:18 AM on August 9, 2016 [29 favorites]


maybe the way to save this conversational thread is to step back a little from talking about identity and instead talk about political theories. I think the thrust of the "conservatism shouldn't exist" idea is that the cluster of political ideas associated with conservatism (especially but not exclusively the contemporary whatever-it-is that's been traveling under the name "conservatism" in America since Reagan) are dangerously bad, and that in a sane world conservatism would be a fringe ideology instead of something that has to be taken seriously.

But in the world we're stuck living in, conservatives aren't a fringe group; they control a major party and are influential in the other. This is a problem — sort of like how it'd be a problem if I were put in charge of the Democratic Party and suddenly people had to start taking You Can't Tip a Buickism seriously.
posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 11:18 AM on August 9, 2016 [2 favorites]


Yeah the RNC balloons were blown up the Friday before the convention by a bunch of mostly black teens who don't like Trump. DNC balloons were blown up the day of by professionals and college students.
posted by acidic at 11:19 AM on August 9, 2016 [9 favorites]


Does Trump actually fly back to NY to sleep every single night?

He doesn't, I think, although there were claims that he he did fly back to NYC after every night of the RNC, which was unusual (although I wouldn't judge him for it).

There have been suggestions that he does always sleep at Trump-owned properties -- which has led some people (citation needed) to question whether his choice of campaign destinations is driven by polling (as is typical) or, instead, by proximity to airstrips that are also conveniently accessible to one of his hotels or resorts. To the degree that it's A Thing, it's A Thing in that it might be affecting where and how he campaigns, because of where his properties happen to be. I think the only-sleeps-in-NYC thing is false, though -- he's definitely stayed at Mar-A-Lago, right?
posted by cjelli at 11:22 AM on August 9, 2016


DNC balloons were blown up the day of

I wonder if that was the reason for everyone's delight. They weren't shitty week old balloons.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 11:22 AM on August 9, 2016 [5 favorites]


This Benghazi lawsuit against Clinton is going to be dismissed right?
posted by chrchr at 11:23 AM on August 9, 2016


Does Trump actually fly back to NY to sleep every single night?

Word has it that he stands in his regeneration alcove for 6-8 hours while regenerating. Alcoves are power hungry and don't fit on a 757 so they're only installed at trump opened properties.
posted by nathan_teske at 11:27 AM on August 9, 2016 [10 favorites]


Looking at the poll results that go into the RCP average is always instructive. We've had 17 national polls in a row all won by Clinton. In the 17 polls before that, only 5 were won by Trump. Every single poll but one in June was won by Clinton.

For two days in May Trump has a 0.2% lead in the average, and he had a three day period post GOP convention when he lead, with a one-day high of +1.1%. Clinton is a +7.5 now, and just eyeballing the average for her puts it around +3 or 4%. The only times she is inside that are around Trump's two small moments of leading.
posted by OmieWise at 11:28 AM on August 9, 2016


Does Trump actually fly back to NY to sleep every single night?

NYC or Mar-a-Lago or Beverly Hills, and perhaps the Kluge Estate at the winery near Charlottesville. He's in NC today, southwest VA and FL tomorrow afternoon/evening, FL Thursday, then PA on Friday, so assume the winery or Mar-a-Lago tonight, Mar-a-Lago Wednesday, then back to NYC on Thursday night.

It's hard to prove beyond a doubt that he spends every night in a Trump-owned property, or that he's planning his rallies based upon easy plane commutes, but his schedule definitely points in that direction, while Pence is putting in all the miles in the midwest.
posted by holgate at 11:29 AM on August 9, 2016 [5 favorites]


> Word has it that he stands in his regeneration alcove for 6-8 hours while regenerating. Alcoves are power hungry and don't fit on a 757 so they're only installed at trump opened properties.

now I want to write a script for a television series, or maybe a graphic novel, set in a world where all the things that people say as jokes about the 2016 election are actually true. Trump spends six to eight hours a day standing in a regeneration alcove. Cruz is thousands of lizards in a skin suit. Clinton is a malfunctioning robot that killed Vince Foster. Bernie Sanders only owns one pair of underwear. Peter Thiel is... pretty much the same as he is in the real world...
posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 11:32 AM on August 9, 2016 [16 favorites]


Don't forget Meredith and Reek.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 11:33 AM on August 9, 2016 [5 favorites]


This Benghazi lawsuit against Clinton is going to be dismissed right?

Yes. It's a show lawsuit by that insane asshole Larry Klayman.
posted by holborne at 11:35 AM on August 9, 2016 [4 favorites]


I'm thrilled with the implosion of the Republican party of 2016, but not at all because I want Republicans to go away or think conservatism is evil. It's because they are an absolute corruption of ideals and so far gone they have to tear down and start again.

But I absolutely want a real adult 49% conservative opposition to a liberal majority. It's completely necessary for a healthy government. Without that the Democrats will just become corrupt and implode. Checks and balances, they're for everyone.
posted by bongo_x at 11:41 AM on August 9, 2016 [31 favorites]


As I see it the happy ending to the "what if all the jokes are true" story comes about only after lil Lincoln Chaffee, who's portrayed as a bit like Neville from Harry Potter and a bit like Arthur from The Tick, regains his lost confidence and finally stands up for himself, using his skill as a farrier to somehow save the day.
posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 11:41 AM on August 9, 2016 [6 favorites]


> But I absolutely want a real adult 49% conservative opposition to a liberal majority. It's completely necessary for a healthy government. Without that the Democrats will just become corrupt and implode. Checks and balances, they're for everyone.

Or alternately we could become a sane country and have a real, healthy liberal opposition to a social-democratic majority.
posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 11:42 AM on August 9, 2016 [49 favorites]


holgate: The "temporarily embarrassed millionaires" quote assigned to Steinbeck is apocryphal, but that doesn't make it any less applicable to American politics.

Not so much apocryphal, but a paraphrase by Ronald Wright being cited as a direct quote -- Steinbeck's phrase was "temporarily embarrassed capitalist".
posted by tavella at 11:43 AM on August 9, 2016 [1 favorite]


This argument seems like a great case for a progressive estate tax. Under such a scheme, I could be open to the current, erm, state of the estate tax, where 5-10 million is exempt since clearly, not everyone is going to agree on the extent to which inheritance should(n't) be taxed (as is evident in this thread). Very complex topic.

And this, ladies and gentleman, is how you govern in a world of sane, reasonable adults. A reasonable disagreement, a reasonable discussion and debate, and a reasonable compromise (I'm assuming that our conservative contingent would be okay with something like this).

#metafilterforcongress
posted by VTX at 11:44 AM on August 9, 2016 [10 favorites]


oh god now I'm shipping Meredith and Lincoln Chaffee. stop it, brain. do something useful with yourself.
posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 11:45 AM on August 9, 2016 [6 favorites]




Media Matters: Roger Stone Confirms That He's In Communication With Julian Assange.
"ROGER STONE: Well, it could be any number of things. I actually have communicated with Assange. I believe the next tranche of his documents pertain to the Clinton Foundation but there's no telling what the October surprise may be."
Knowing Stone and Assange, I'll bet it's the whitey tape.

(If Media Mattered that headline would read "Roger Stone Says That He's In Communication With Julian Assange.")
posted by octobersurprise at 11:47 AM on August 9, 2016 [3 favorites]


The local news is covering the trump rally and there are currently 3 different blurb/story-type items on the front page of their website.

I am not protesting because I don't want to get into a fight or arrested or feel badly because I'd see someone I know and possibly had held some respect for them.

The pictures show so. Many. White. People.
posted by sara is disenchanted at 11:47 AM on August 9, 2016


Trump Agrees To Three Debates—But He Wants To See The Conditions First

Because everything is a negotiation with him.
posted by zachlipton at 11:49 AM on August 9, 2016 [2 favorites]


Ugh.

Orlando shooter’s father spotted at Clinton rally (Washington Post)
posted by carrienation at 11:51 AM on August 9, 2016




Quinnipiac lifts embargo (presumably to beat competition) FL: Clinton 46, Trump 45 OH: Clinton 49, Trump 45 Pa: Clinton 52, Trump 42

I thought Florida was more strongly for Clinton than that at the moement. But that's a five point swing from Quinnipac polling the same states at the end of June. Other than Penn where Quinnipac had Trump ahead six points at the last poll.
posted by Francis at 11:55 AM on August 9, 2016


> Not always! I saw a ton of these sets of three crosses while driving through West Virginia.

> One of my favorites is this one, which seems to be installed just to watch over a huge "Adult Store" in Tennessee.

Huh! Okay, I stand corrected. I've actually lived my entire life in the South and while I've seen plenty of little memorial crosses, I've never noticed big, showy roadside displays like this.

I'm in total sympathy with anybody who thinks that kind of ostentation is obnoxious or even threatening.
posted by a mirror and an encyclopedia at 11:55 AM on August 9, 2016 [3 favorites]


And hilariously, someone on Twitter noticed that Trump has tweeted---wait for it--almost 33,000 times.
posted by zombieflanders at 11:56 AM on August 9, 2016 [15 favorites]




Hey, um, if anyone was still skeptical about the DNC hack being done by Russians, apparently Russians hacked the DNC back in June. That's an old story from before the big leak in July, and it indicates that they had access to all the emails that were later leaked.
posted by Rainbo Vagrant at 11:58 AM on August 9, 2016 [1 favorite]


Every time I hear an aspiring Republican refer to the GOP as "the party of Lincoln" as though it will make the party appeal to would-be voters, it plays in my head like Roger Gooddell referring to the Colts as "the team of Baltimore" to try to appeal to folks in Maryland. OK, that's fine, go ahead and call it whatever you want, guy, but eventually someone's going to pull up the Wikipedia article and then they're gonna be pisssssssssssed.
posted by Mayor West at 11:58 AM on August 9, 2016 [7 favorites]


Just to note: that Q poll is the first from them to use a likely voter model rather than a registered voter model, according to r/hillaryclinton.
posted by peacheater at 11:58 AM on August 9, 2016


Governor Scott asks Congress to go back to work.

"Back". Ha.
posted by Etrigan at 11:59 AM on August 9, 2016 [5 favorites]




It's hard to prove beyond a doubt that he spends every night in a Trump-owned property, or that he's planning his rallies based upon easy plane commutes, but his schedule definitely points in that direction,

He's running his campaign using as many Trump properties as possible so he can bill himself. Many people are saying it.
posted by hydrophonic at 12:00 PM on August 9, 2016 [10 favorites]


Florida officials identify 4 more people who likely contracted Zika through mosquitoes, bringing total to 21 people, Governor Scott asks Congress to go back to work.

I saw a tweet that I saw that said something along the lines of "Gov Rick Scott warns about mosquitoes bearing Zika because some shithead named Rick Scott cut funding for mosquito control in 2011."
posted by zombieflanders at 12:02 PM on August 9, 2016 [33 favorites]


I thought Florida was more strongly for Clinton than that at the moement.

Quinnipac has a pretty strong R lean.
posted by OmieWise at 12:04 PM on August 9, 2016


He's running his campaign using as many Trump properties as possible so he can bill himself.

Many people are saying it.


It is known.
posted by snuffleupagus at 12:04 PM on August 9, 2016 [1 favorite]


If Clinton wins PA & MI, she can lose FL, OH, & NC and still win.
posted by OmieWise at 12:05 PM on August 9, 2016


Current NYT upshot analysis is interesting... based on most recent set of polls, # of possible routes to 270 that the Donald has is down to two (scroll to bottom of page to play with possibilities).
posted by modernnomad at 12:06 PM on August 9, 2016 [1 favorite]


Oh boy. He's off the chain again. 2nd-ammendment remedies.
posted by Don Pepino at 12:07 PM on August 9, 2016 [7 favorites]


Governor Scott asks Congress to go back to work.

"Back". Ha.


It bears repeating that the Congressional GOP (yes, even the so-called "sane" and "moderate" ones) are holding the funds for fighting Zika hostage because they love Confederate flags and hate regulating insecticide pollution, Planned Parenthood, and Obamacare. Because obviously those are totally the things to be pushing in response to a disease that is expected to overwhelm the entire former Confederacy, is carried by insects, and requires both excellent reproductive/neonatal healthcare and a federalized health response.

If you want to see evil in both its pure and "when good [people] do nothing" forms, there it is.
posted by zombieflanders at 12:11 PM on August 9, 2016 [45 favorites]


Without that the Democrats will just become corrupt and implode.

*flourish*

I give you... *gesticulates wildly* ...Illinois!
posted by tivalasvegas at 12:13 PM on August 9, 2016 [12 favorites]




@CandaceSmith_: Here's Trump saying that maybe "the 2nd Amendment folks" can maybe prevent Hillary from choosing judges.

Surely this must be illegal.
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 12:19 PM on August 9, 2016 [26 favorites]


What gets me all maddened is when someone dies with a gorgeous art collection that they loved dearly and wanted to pass on to their kids which has increased in value and not a lot of cash money, so the art collection has to be broken up and sold in order to pay the tax on the art collection.

As someone who has spent a decade breaking up and selling off my father's collection that he poured years of effort and TONS of money into, and which isn't actually worth what he spent on it, I kinda wish he had just left me a bank account of money, even if I had to give the government a percentage. (I mean, I know it made him happy, but as an heir it's been a pain in the butt.)
posted by threeturtles at 12:19 PM on August 9, 2016 [7 favorites]


God his word salad is so infuriating because it always leaves him an out of plausible deniability even though everyone freaking knows what he means.
posted by soren_lorensen at 12:20 PM on August 9, 2016 [19 favorites]


"God his word salad is so infuriating because it always leaves him an out of plausible deniability"

Perhaps not with Secret Service agents, though.
posted by klarck at 12:23 PM on August 9, 2016 [4 favorites]


Also when it comes to drones, the invisible flying murder robots maybe wouldn't be so bad if they weren't being used to kill civilians and terrorize children. The technology isn't inherently unethical (like gas or nuclear bombs, which inherently have spill-over effects) but using them for war crimes is.
posted by Rainbo Vagrant at 12:24 PM on August 9, 2016 [3 favorites]




Trump Agrees To Three Debates—But He Wants To See The Conditions First

"I want to debate very badly." I'm sure he will.
posted by kirkaracha at 12:26 PM on August 9, 2016 [61 favorites]


NYC or Mar-a-Lago or Beverly Hills, and perhaps the Kluge Estate at the winery near Charlottesville. He's in NC today, southwest VA and FL tomorrow afternoon/evening, FL Thursday, then PA on Friday, so assume the winery or Mar-a-Lago tonight, Mar-a-Lago Wednesday, then back to NYC on Thursday night.

I wonder when the Republicans will nominate a candidate who only has, like, one or two houses.
posted by tivalasvegas at 12:28 PM on August 9, 2016 [3 favorites]


> Surely this must be illegal.

(I think I'll use "Surely This" as the title of the graphic novel series based on a world where every joke about the 2016 election is true.)
posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 12:30 PM on August 9, 2016 [38 favorites]


Sooooooo, that was essentially a provocation to attack Clinton if she is elected. Is there anything anyone can do about that? Because if it was Joe Schmoe on the street, they'd be getting a call from the Secret Service.
posted by codacorolla at 12:30 PM on August 9, 2016 [15 favorites]


Here is the video of the 2A comment.

Wow. By his pacing and his intonation -- and the nervous crowd laughter in response -- that's a lot more blatant that it is in the transcript. Plausibly deniable, sure, but in watching that his meaning is clear; it comes off as a joke, but that is something the nominee of the major party should never, ever be 'joking' about. As if that needs to be said. After Trump's comments, maybe, sadly, it does.
posted by cjelli at 12:31 PM on August 9, 2016 [12 favorites]


What. The. Fuck.
posted by rp at 12:32 PM on August 9, 2016 [3 favorites]


MSF (Doctors Without Borders), among (many) other aid organizations, have experimented with humanitarian uses for drones, like delivering medical supplies to remote locations. Imagine how drones could be used to save lives and alleviate suffering by bringing food, water, cash, medicine, or other supplies to remote parts of the world. (Not trying to reopen the whole can of worms, just pointing out that drones aren't limited to being weapons of war.)
posted by fragmede at 12:34 PM on August 9, 2016 [5 favorites]


OK, this whole derail about conservatives was in response to this thing I wrote, which I'm quoting myself:

Sometimes people on the right have ideas that are excellent and sometimes people on the left have ideas that are lousy. I'm sure some of my ideas are lousy. Perhaps even this one.

I don't want to see the collapse of the Republican party - I'd like to see it purge itself of its members who demand ideological purity at the expense of the public good. At the moment, that looks like defeating Trump and getting Republicans like you back into the driver's seat. We don't often agree, but I believe fervently that you are motivated by good will for your fellow humans and a desire to make things better for everyone.


My point had almost nothing to do with specific policies and more to do with process. When people are working towards the greater public good, it is usually good to have a few people who push hard for change and a few people who go "whoa whoa whoa - remember that thing about how people who forget the past are doomed to repeat it?" Sometimes the idea of progress and change is excellent and sometimes its useful to say "but what we have right now is working" or "that would be an awesome thing to do, but let's sit down for a few minutes and ponder what the unintended consequences might be" or even "hey, we can't afford that right now." Having those conservative ideas in the mix of any conversation means that the plan to move forward (or not) will be thoroughly discussed, debated and nitpicked over in such a way that it will be a much, much better plan.

In my opinion, the problem with the current ideologically pure far right is twofold. First, I don't believe they are working for the common good - just the good for a small subset of our population. Second, by refusing to compromise on anything, they are not entering into the process of governing in good faith. Indeed, they seem to obstinately refuse to govern.

Having a conservative party that is interested in having a functioning government can only help us. Its the "interest in governing for the good of your fellow humans" part that matters most. The bend of history leans towards progress but it doesn't hurt to have an intelligent, good willed group of conservative people saying "Hey, before we do this, can we think it through first?"
posted by Joey Michaels at 12:36 PM on August 9, 2016 [22 favorites]


What is the threshold for inciting violence?

Does Trump want to create a new generation of right wing domestic terrorists, or is he just an idiot?
posted by vuron at 12:37 PM on August 9, 2016 [4 favorites]


Does Trump want to create a new generation of right wing domestic terrorists, or is he just an idiot?

Yes?
posted by Spathe Cadet at 12:38 PM on August 9, 2016 [88 favorites]


Surely this must be illegal.

Republicans say all kinds of seditious stuff without consequences. It would play into Trump's hands to make him a free-speech martyr.
posted by a lungful of dragon at 12:38 PM on August 9, 2016 [3 favorites]


Does Trump want to create a new generation of right wing domestic terrorists, or is he just an idiot?

Both.
posted by pracowity at 12:38 PM on August 9, 2016 [1 favorite]


Trump rolls out “Gold Executive Membership Card” for donors.

That's it! Gloves are off! No one tries to steal Telly's steeze and gets away with it!
posted by octobersurprise at 12:39 PM on August 9, 2016 [1 favorite]


Wait. If you currently need a path to 270 to get into the debates, soon Trump would be ineligible?
posted by corb at 12:40 PM on August 9, 2016 [19 favorites]


Corb with the #bantz
posted by vuron at 12:41 PM on August 9, 2016 [2 favorites]


Amanda Marcotte: It’s still Trump’s show: Journalists should avoid the temptation to assume Mike Pence is the power behind the throne:
Already, there’s indications that Pence is stepping into the role of being the “real” candidate who will get the forgiving, “balanced” coverage the Republican usually gets against a Democratic nominee. After Trump made headlines by issuing baseless attacks on Khizr and Ghazala Khan, who criticized Trump at the Democratic National Convention and who lost their son in the Iraq War in 2004, Pence stepped up to do clean-up work, issuing a statement calling Captain Human Khan a “hero” and making all the respectful noises we expect out of a major party candidate to make when asked about soldiers who die in battle.

Pence has since dug in, using his rally time to praise Captain Khan and grab headlines that read far more like the ones you’d get in a typical election cycle, where candidates busy themselves praising our troops for their service instead of hinting that their parents are secretly terrorist sympathizers.

But journalists should not give into the temptation to allow Pence to hoodwink them into thinking he’s the true voice of the campaign.
Am looking forward to Pence's attempt to turn this '2nd Amendment folks' thing into something less... death threat-y.
posted by palindromic at 12:43 PM on August 9, 2016 [4 favorites]


So, off the back deck of my house, I look out onto the next street over in my neighborhood, where there is an empty lot. There used to be a house there. The house was torn down a few years ago, because it was the site of the ambush and killing of three police officers, and the terrorizing of my entire neighborhood, in 2009, a few months after Obama took office. The shooter was a white supremacist ammosexual twerp who was convinced (as many white supremacists have been over the past 8 years) that Obama was going to "abolish the 2nd amendment."

Ever since that morning I've been A LITTLE JUMPY about politicians implying that any politician can just abolish an amendment and come and remove all however-many-million-I-don't-care guns there are in private hands in this country, because all it is is a goddamn dog-whistle invitation for people to shoot some shit up with the blessing of whomever is pouring that poison in the ears of a bunch of scaredy white wangs.

So, once again, this time with feeling: FUCK THAT GUY.
posted by soren_lorensen at 12:43 PM on August 9, 2016 [82 favorites]


i have to stop checking 538 polling results because full-blown erections at work are embarrassing
posted by Tevin at 12:44 PM on August 9, 2016 [19 favorites]


Suggesting that someone should go murder your opponent is bad enough when you haven't been arguing that she is not merely incompetent or too liberal, but in fact hates America and is working to destroy it for her own personal gain
posted by theodolite at 12:44 PM on August 9, 2016 [9 favorites]


Conservatives who have claimed they are defending the 2nd Amendment have been threatening "2nd Amendment solutions" for decades. Hillary's not even the first Clinton who had a powerful GOP official use that rhetoric against them. It's not the new normal, it's been completely normalized as acceptable behavior from both them and supporters for years now.
posted by zombieflanders at 12:45 PM on August 9, 2016 [19 favorites]


so, this is where the republican party becomes a terrorist organization?
posted by pyramid termite at 12:48 PM on August 9, 2016 [7 favorites]


Man, this is going to be a spectacular pivot.
posted by Spathe Cadet at 12:48 PM on August 9, 2016 [12 favorites]




(Sorry, just posted the "second amendment" article at the same time everyone else did.)
posted by roll truck roll at 12:49 PM on August 9, 2016


If pivoting 360 to the center isn't doing it maybe he needs to be pivoting 720 to the center.
posted by vuron at 12:50 PM on August 9, 2016 [2 favorites]


"Who sends 33,000 emails?" says Trump, who doesn't use email it all.

Then wtf does he do all day? How does he "run" his businesses? I've reviewed tens of thousands of emails in the course of discovery for various civil lawsuits, one of which involved a fairly large company and one which involved a smallish mom-and-pop type business. Even the small business had hundreds of emails going in and out on a weekly basis, and the emails from the big company included C-level executives. That volume of emails is nowhere close to remarkable to me, or I'd wager to anyone with an email-heavy job.
posted by yasaman at 12:51 PM on August 9, 2016 [7 favorites]


so, this is where the republican party becomes a terrorist organization?

"My fellow Americans, I'm pleased to tell you today that I've signed legislation that will outlaw the Republican Party forever...."
posted by entropicamericana at 12:51 PM on August 9, 2016 [4 favorites]


Trump Exposes Trump

I don't want to bring back the awkward mental illness discussion, but watching this video, "old Trump" seems noticeably smarter than "new Trump". That stood out for me more than the hypocrisy, which I was already quite familiar with.
posted by mmoncur at 12:52 PM on August 9, 2016 [5 favorites]




And here's the walkback on the 2nd amendment comment:

a Trump spokesperson is saying she thinks he meant that the NRA (which she called the most powerful lobbying organization in the US) could use its pressure to prevent her from getting elected or fulfilling her agenda.
posted by diogenes at 12:52 PM on August 9, 2016 [1 favorite]


Huh what! Gingrich is actually comparing Trump to Jackson and trying to make that seem positive?

I bet that is the sort of language that will make outreach to First Nations members really easy.
posted by vuron at 12:52 PM on August 9, 2016 [3 favorites]


It's not like any misogynist conspiracy theorists have shot any congresswomen recently, or anything
posted by theodolite at 12:53 PM on August 9, 2016 [70 favorites]


It's not like any misogynist conspiracy theorists have shot any congresswomen recently, or anything

Or MPs...
posted by soren_lorensen at 12:54 PM on August 9, 2016 [60 favorites]


How does he "run" his businesses?

I think you mean, how does he run his "businesses"?

As far as I can tell the whole Trump enterprise is basically at the same level as when I used to build little villages in the sandbox* and requires about the same level of email usage.

It's just that he started out with a few hundred million bucks and all I had was some beach sand and a mental model of minas tirith

*to clarify: this was some years ago
posted by tivalasvegas at 12:57 PM on August 9, 2016 [7 favorites]


Do we really need a national-scale reenactment of that Atwood quote about men being afraid women will laugh at them
posted by theodolite at 12:58 PM on August 9, 2016 [35 favorites]


I bet that is the sort of language that will make outreach to First Nations members really easy.

The First Nations will certainly be smacked in the face at this weird and new misplaced affection for the guy on the $20 bill
posted by beerperson at 12:58 PM on August 9, 2016 [1 favorite]






Whoever had August as the month Trump would dogwhistle a death threat against Clinton has won the pool. I had October.
posted by tclark at 1:00 PM on August 9, 2016 [17 favorites]


Betcha those 2nd Amendment boys can take care of that dadgum "dishonest media", too.
posted by yhbc at 1:01 PM on August 9, 2016 [1 favorite]


Holy shit that response would be hilarious if this were an episode of any number of politically themed middlebrow television programs.
posted by MCMikeNamara at 1:02 PM on August 9, 2016 [3 favorites]


It's not like any misogynist conspiracy theorists have shot any congresswomen recently, or anything

Or MPs...


Or female heads of state.
posted by zombieflanders at 1:02 PM on August 9, 2016 [9 favorites]


That statement is titled "Trump campaign statement on dishonest media."

This isn't a media thing. Watch the video. There's a man sitting behind Trump who literally has his mouth agape after hearing Trump's 2nd Amendment comment. And he certainly didn't have any time for the media to tell him what to think.
posted by zachlipton at 1:03 PM on August 9, 2016 [15 favorites]


TRUMP: *fwwwweeeeeeeeeeeeeee* I'm dogwhistling. Can you hear me dogwhistling? *fwwwwweeeeeeeeeeeeeee*

MANAFORT: Actually a dogwhistle is when you--

TRUMP: *FWWWWWEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE*
posted by prize bull octorok at 1:03 PM on August 9, 2016 [58 favorites]


I think the "October surprise" is the new "Clinton will be indicted by the FBI.." Also if they had a surprise, why are they saying anything. Not much of a surprise attack when you tell everyone you are going to do it.
posted by humanfont at 1:03 PM on August 9, 2016 [1 favorite]


Here's Trump saying that maybe "the 2nd Amendment folks" can maybe prevent Hillary from choosing judges.


They'll regulate her militia, IYKWIM.

(AITYD.)
posted by dersins at 1:04 PM on August 9, 2016 [2 favorites]


I don't want to bring back the awkward mental illness discussion, but watching this video, "old Trump" seems noticeably smarter than "new Trump". That stood out for me more than the hypocrisy, which I was already quite familiar with.

I think an explanation that moves away from mental illness (although, hey, it's possible) is that trump is in his element when he can freely say whatever he thinks the listener wants to hear, and when the interviewer is treating him like a lovable joke. Once he gets questioned or called on his beliefs in any way, it seems like he has trouble operating, which I think leads to a lot of the word salad, and the bold faced contradictions. trump got a pass throughout much of the Republican primary season, and once the questions got hotter (like during the debates, especially as they winnowed down to the main 4), he was already in a position where it didn't matter, or he was able to use his personality to deflect. Now it's down to 2, and he actually has to put forward the Republican platform. His rhetorical tricks are far less effective, and such as they work, they work on people who represent his floor of support.
posted by codacorolla at 1:05 PM on August 9, 2016 [5 favorites]


I think the "October surprise" is the new "Clinton will be indicted by the FBI.."

paging user 15312... user 15312, please come over here and explain yourself
posted by tivalasvegas at 1:05 PM on August 9, 2016


There's a man sitting behind Trump who literally has his mouth agape after hearing

And then he kind of does an "Oh snap ahahahahaha" face alongside the woman guffawing next to him. So, like, let's not give that dude too much credit for his outstanding moral compass.
posted by soren_lorensen at 1:07 PM on August 9, 2016 [13 favorites]


I think the "October surprise" is the new "Clinton will be indicted by the FBI.." Also if they had a surprise, why are they saying anything. Not much of a surprise attack when you tell everyone you are going to do it.

Assange, Stone, and the fringe media are certainly posturing as such. I agree - if they have a bombshell, then they should probably use it. Clinton being +10 in PA in Quinnipiac seems like the sort of thing that's nearly impossible to recover from. What could they be waiting for?

That leads me to believe that a) they have nothing and are sowing doubt for the sake of sowing doubt, or b) they realized that what they have isn't particularly useful or shocking.

Assuming that they actually have an October surprise also means that you buy into the idea that Clinton has covered up something damning, and I honestly think that means buying into a lot of kookie right wing conspiracy theory that is just plainly untrue.
posted by codacorolla at 1:09 PM on August 9, 2016 [7 favorites]




Losing US military lives has never been a check on the hawks or their inclination to be hawkish.

If memory serves me correctly, when the US military had Osama bin Laden cornered in Tora Bora, the stated reason for not sending in the military to finish him off was that the American people would disapprove if the casualties were too high (this is pre-Iraq War, you understand, and I thought the argument was a load of hogwash at the time, too).

But speaking of Iraq, part of the reason it was such a tragedy is that George W. Bush really, actually wasn't willing to ask the American people to pay the necessary price to support his Excellent Adventure. That's why National Guard units were deployed over there far longer than expected and regular troops served multiple tours -- the aftershocks of which we're only beginning to deal with.

He also wasn't willing to ask the US taxpayer for dime one to finance the war. No, he paid for the war with a tax cut, and put the tab on the national credit card.

So I disagree -- the lesson of the Vietnam War was indeed well learned. Mr. and Mrs. John Q. Citizen will not accept the tens of thousands of casualties (and ongoing casualties with no end in sight, just like Iraq was turning into). That's why Republicans -- you know, the so-called "strong on defense" party -- ever since have run their wars on the cheap.
posted by Gelatin at 1:10 PM on August 9, 2016 [2 favorites]


Politically Re-active with W. Kamau Bell & Hari Kondabolu had an interesting episode with Ian Haney López where Lopez discussed how dog whistles work, and that they are more complicated than they seem, because not only do they need to offer the candidate reasonable deniability that he was saying what we all know what he was saying, but they also need to give his followers reasonable deniability that they are not racists, or sexist, or whatever the dog whistle is playing into. They want to believe that they support Trump because he's actually trying to keep out terrorists, not because he and his followers have decided it is all right to demonize Muslims.

The trouble with Trump is that he has no finesse here. And so after a while the supporters who are engaged in self-denial must start saying, well, crap, this is just racism. Am I actually a racist?

And he just keeps heaping it on. Now his supporters must say, well, jeez, I thought we were all on the same page that it is the other side that is violent, that we were forcefully ejecting potentially violent protestors, and that Hillary was the one who kills political opponents. But now I am starting to think that maybe Trump wants real violence, and maybe I did too, and, oh jeez, cognitive dissonance crashing ....

That's how you go from national frontrunner to a guy with a parking lot full of red-faced, screaming men with Confederate flags and no chance of winning an election. I just wish it were possible, once he's gone, to make the guys in the parking lots go away, but he's given them a place to grow, like a disease.
posted by maxsparber at 1:11 PM on August 9, 2016 [31 favorites]


I know there will be no real consequences for that line but it must really piss off the Secret Service, which is not a super great plan when they are also protecting you??
posted by theodolite at 1:12 PM on August 9, 2016 [10 favorites]


diogenes: "And here's the walkback on the 2nd amendment comment:
"

its like watching a child pick mushrooms out of a salad
posted by boo_radley at 1:13 PM on August 9, 2016 [29 favorites]


I don't want to bring back the awkward mental illness discussion

Let's not, please, especially in the same kind of "Well, I'm just saying, some people may think..." talk that Trump himself is using right now.
posted by Etrigan at 1:16 PM on August 9, 2016 [2 favorites]


Brian Beutler: Trump’s “joke” about a violent coup-slash-assassination is fine due to the possibility of tax cuts, apparently
If past is prologue, GOP leaders like Paul Ryan will condemn the comment, but not the candidate, because helping to elect Hillary Clinton, and giving up the dream of supply side tax cuts, would be worse than supporting a guy who makes jokes about armed revolt and presidential (or is it judicial?) assassination.

This isn’t a new problem for the GOP. Back in 2010, when then-Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid was facing a tough reelection campaign, his Tea Party opponent Sharron Angle appeared on conservative talk radio and warned, “I’m hoping that we’re not getting to Second Amendment remedies. I hope the vote will be the cure for the Harry Reid problems.” Angle was widely condemned and went on to lose in a winnable race that embarrasses the party to this day. But for Republicans, the past six years haven’t been defined by learning from obvious mistakes.
posted by zombieflanders at 1:17 PM on August 9, 2016 [30 favorites]




I think he meant you could shoot the judges.

Phew, I guess that makes it OK then. Paul Ryan -- here's your out!
posted by tclark at 1:20 PM on August 9, 2016 [4 favorites]


I think he meant you could shoot the judges.

Because that's better?

Anyway, as some on Twitter have noticed, Trump praised an adviser who called for Clinton to be shot by firing squad just three days ago.
posted by zombieflanders at 1:20 PM on August 9, 2016 [3 favorites]


Hey remember when Trump said 'titties' on live TV. What was that? Like a day ago?
posted by PenDevil at 1:22 PM on August 9, 2016 [9 favorites]




Somewhere, somebody is composing a think-piece about how liberal-created PC Culture is why we can't make jokes about shooting our political opponents anymore and that's exactly why people want to hear more jokes about shooting political opponents.
posted by Joey Michaels at 1:23 PM on August 9, 2016 [35 favorites]


I poked my head into /r/the_donald to see if they were talking about the 2nd amendment remarks (they mostly weren't afaict) and came across this amusing exchange, which I will paraphrase in order to not repeat offensive language:

POSTER: Hey should we be phonebanking
COMMENTER 1: lol
COMMENTER 2: no
COMMENTER 3: lol no
posted by prize bull octorok at 1:24 PM on August 9, 2016 [57 favorites]


Somewhere, somebody is composing a think-piece about how liberal-created PC Culture is why we can't make jokes about shooting our political opponents anymore and that's exactly why people want to hear more jokes about shooting political opponents.

Somewhere, somebody wrote that years ago and has been waiting to dust it off. Just watch to see if they forget to replace "Obama" with "Clinton".
posted by Etrigan at 1:25 PM on August 9, 2016 [5 favorites]


I'm looking forward to another round of half-assed denunciations from Ryan, McConnell, etc. that redefine the phrase "mealy-mouthed."
posted by The Card Cheat at 1:26 PM on August 9, 2016 [4 favorites]


Somewhere, somebody is composing a think-piece about how liberal-created PC Culture is why we can't make jokes about shooting our political opponents anymore and that's exactly why people want to hear more jokes about shooting political opponents.

$5 on it being from Milo Yiannopolous and the gamergate/puppies/etc crowd lapping it up per usual.
posted by zombieflanders at 1:27 PM on August 9, 2016 [5 favorites]


I poked my head into /r/the_donald to see if they were talking about the 2nd amendment remarks (they mostly weren't afaict) and came across this amusing exchange, which I will paraphrase in order to not repeat offensive language:

POSTER: Hey should we be phonebanking
COMMENTER 1: lol
COMMENTER 2: no
COMMENTER 3: lol no


I sometimes wonder if maybe trump is right, and he can win an election with no actual volunteer base or ground game, and then I'm like "nah".
posted by codacorolla at 1:28 PM on August 9, 2016 [3 favorites]


Okay, yeah, I'm horrified. I'm also waiting with a sick stomach for how the fucker tops himself, 'cause he seems to have an infinite knack for it.
posted by Mooski at 1:28 PM on August 9, 2016 [6 favorites]


Or alternately we could become a sane country and have a real, healthy liberal opposition to a social-democratic majority.

Is it open mic night already? I gotta bunch of sick knock-knock and yo-mama stuff I been wanting to try out
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 1:30 PM on August 9, 2016


The Second Amendment comment is the top story on CNN now. Surely this will cause another flurry of sane GOP people to defect? It's very interesting watching what the last straw is for each person.
posted by gatorae at 1:32 PM on August 9, 2016 [8 favorites]






ew NPR said he encouraged 2nd amendment folks should "defeat" Clinton
which of course if you equate death as the ultimate defeat.
then NPR was like well what did he meeeeean

he means he wants somebody with a gun could shoot her in the head. there is no other interpretation
posted by angrycat at 1:33 PM on August 9, 2016 [13 favorites]




But what a fucking weak headline on CNN - Trump calls out to gun owners? What did he call out? What did he call for them to do? Can't the media just report what happened?
posted by peacheater at 1:35 PM on August 9, 2016 [3 favorites]


codacorolla: "I sometimes wonder if maybe trump is right, and he can win an election with no actual volunteer base or ground game, and then I'm like "nah".

I can't imagine that any good would come from Trump supporters calling people or knocking on doors. They'd probably get into screaming fights with people on the phone or fist-fights while they were out canvassing.
posted by octothorpe at 1:35 PM on August 9, 2016 [3 favorites]


Can't the media just report what happened?

Trick is, if they do they're repeating the "shoot Hillary" dogwhistle.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 1:36 PM on August 9, 2016 [4 favorites]


NPR is skating the melted edge of me never donating another dime.
posted by Mooski at 1:37 PM on August 9, 2016 [18 favorites]


I'm also waiting with a sick stomach for how the fucker tops himself ...

Just yesterday, Eugene Robinson wrote "This campaign could get worse — a lot worse. Here’s why." Abstract: As Trump continues to fail, he's going to double down on everything he thinks appeals to his core supporters.

I don't doubt it. If he continues to fail—and it seems likely that he will—he'll be into the serious Alex Jones shit in another month. By October he might just be grunting and rending his flesh.
posted by octobersurprise at 1:38 PM on August 9, 2016 [13 favorites]


I just assumed he meant he hoped the NRA lobby would be as successful shutting down future judicial nominees as they were with Merrick Garland (who is widely considered anti-gun by the right).
posted by Jpfed at 1:40 PM on August 9, 2016


Maybe the 15th and 19th amendment folks can prevent Trump from choosing judges.
posted by phunniemee at 1:40 PM on August 9, 2016 [41 favorites]


They'd probably get into screaming fights with people on the phone or fist-fights while they were out canvassing.

I saw that Reddit thread on the Sanders campaign too.
posted by tclark at 1:40 PM on August 9, 2016 [2 favorites]


Oh, so is the October Surprise going to be the revelation that Clinton had a DNC employee murdered for leaking sensitive material? Guys, it's not an October Surprise if you say it in August!
posted by (Arsenio) Hall and (Warren) Oates at 1:41 PM on August 9, 2016


Oh man, I'd forgotten mefi went to bat for Henry Kissinger this morning.

The thread has move on since then, but the Trial of Henry Kissinger by Chris Hitchens is a well written brief on Kissinger that you can read in one sitting.
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 1:42 PM on August 9, 2016


is the October Surprise going to be the revelation that Clinton had a DNC employee murdered for leaking sensitive material?

I liked "The Clintons murdered Vince Foster" better the first time. That's the problem with this generation: everything's a reboot.
posted by octobersurprise at 1:45 PM on August 9, 2016 [18 favorites]


NYT is on it now.
posted by guiseroom at 1:46 PM on August 9, 2016 [2 favorites]


The liberal media has given him a pass on the "Lock Her Up" and "Trump That Bitch" chants / merchandise, so why not let a flat-out call for Clinton's assassination slide too? Clinton conspiracy fan fiction is currently dominating the Amazon sales charts. The Fail Truck in my neighborhood has a "Hillary For Prison" sticker on the bumper. There is an entire industry built up around telling Shitty White Guys that the Clintons - Hillary in particular - is pulling a fast one on them. You keep waving a bloody shirt at a mob, eventually they'll want to see some up close.

I stopped expecting to ever see the bottom of Trump and the GOP's depravity but goddamn, he still managed to surprise me today. Let's see what mush-mouthed talking point Ryan and the party make of this. Let's look forward to the Newtsplanation for this latest outrage.
posted by EatTheWeak at 1:46 PM on August 9, 2016 [6 favorites]


Points to locked-up bicycle - there's no way to get that bike except with a set of bolt cutters.

By which I mean, you can wait for the bike's owner to show up, and then offer to trade him your bolt cutters for his bike. We're going to make some incredible deals folks, incredible deals. China's going to give us four bikes for every set of bolt cutters we make. Incredible.
posted by 0xFCAF at 1:47 PM on August 9, 2016 [11 favorites]


MSNBC is leading with the even-more-pusilanimous "Trump campaign defends 2nd Amendment comment." Miserable.
posted by argybarg at 1:48 PM on August 9, 2016 [4 favorites]


Maybe the 15th and 19th amendment folks can prevent Trump from choosing judges.

If they can't, I'll certainly be taking solace in the 21st amendment.
posted by leotrotsky at 1:48 PM on August 9, 2016 [5 favorites]


Jon Favreau: What to remember when the Trump comeback begins.
Again, the final tally could be much closer, but we should remember that Trump’s current predicament is not the result of any one gaffe or misstep or string of bad luck — it’s the result of an actual campaign that Hillary’s running very well and Trump is running very poorly. I’m convinced that if Donald Trump and his entire staff were replaced tomorrow with a drunken Fox News viewer chosen at random, that person would probably run a better campaign. It’s a level of ineptitude that relieves me as a citizen, but offends me as a political professional.
In a similar vein: Keepin' it 1600: Trump's Bubble, GOPers for Hillary, and the "Poller Coaster", discussing last weeks events.
posted by ltl at 1:48 PM on August 9, 2016 [3 favorites]


I stopped expecting to ever see the bottom of Trump and the GOP's depravity but goddamn, he still managed to surprise me today. Let's see what mush-mouthed talking point Ryan and the party make of this. Let's look forward to the Newtsplanation for this latest outrage.

Ryan's primary is tonight. If he wins let's see what he says.
posted by Talez at 1:48 PM on August 9, 2016 [5 favorites]


Oh, so is the October Surprise going to be the revelation that Clinton had a DNC employee murdered for leaking sensitive material? Guys, it's not an October Surprise if you say it in August!

Christing fuck has Assange ever turned out to be an even more garbage-y garbage person than I'd thought.

Seriously, to call him a useless piece of shit is an insult to both uselessness and pieces of shit.
posted by dersins at 1:49 PM on August 9, 2016 [42 favorites]


I'm also waiting with a sick stomach for how the fucker tops himself

I reeeeeally don't think his um fingers are long enough to do this
posted by tivalasvegas at 1:50 PM on August 9, 2016 [6 favorites]


As the cornerstone of PBS for decades, "Sesame Street" has occasionally been maligned as a vessel for indoctrinating children with progressive values, but it's hard to recall a more overtly direct hit at a conservative figure than the Donald Grump sketch.

Except that sketch aired in 2005, when Trump was identified chiefly as a pop-culture phenomenon with easily ridiculed qualities, and only very distantly if at all as a conservative figure.

Sure, unearthing that clip now is a politically motivated move, but it's blatant dishonesty to suggest the original sketch was openly political.
posted by jackbishop at 1:51 PM on August 9, 2016 [11 favorites]


Christing fuck has Assange ever turned out to be an even more garbage-y garbage person than I'd thought.

My slightly warmed-over take on it is he's an acclerationist. The sooner he can get a human negative integer into the White House, the sooner everything implodes.
posted by Mooski at 1:52 PM on August 9, 2016


I half expect Trump to start calling for The Purge.

"You know I saw this movie and for one night, everyone could do whatever they wanted. Everyone got it out of their system. There was no crime, no problems. People were able to air out their greivances with one another, it was all *VERY* cathartic. I think we could do that here and stop a YUUUUUUUGE amount of crime." [fake]
posted by Talez at 1:53 PM on August 9, 2016 [10 favorites]


NYT seems to be going with the Trump campaign "explanation" in their headline.

Also, it's funny but I remember when MF loved Assange.
posted by OmieWise at 1:54 PM on August 9, 2016 [4 favorites]


Christing fuck has Assange ever turned out to be an even more garbage-y garbage person than I'd thought.

Remember, you can't spell Assange without "an ass."
posted by Joey Michaels at 1:55 PM on August 9, 2016 [3 favorites]


A solid majority of white American men still support Trump?
posted by pracowity at 1:56 PM on August 9, 2016


"Mr. Trump was saying exactly what he said. Hillary Clinton is a gun grabber."

Ah, I see. The "she was going for my gun" excuse.
posted by NMcCoy at 1:56 PM on August 9, 2016 [40 favorites]




One hour until Trump's rally in Fayetteville, NC, starts. There's tons of open space and no line waiting outside. (twitter)
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 1:57 PM on August 9, 2016 [2 favorites]


Sarah Glidden at The Nib: “Spoiler: On The Campaign Trail With Jill Stein”
posted by Going To Maine at 1:58 PM on August 9, 2016 [1 favorite]


Also, it's funny but I remember when MF loved Assange.

Collateral Murder and Cablegate etc. are in the past. What has he done for us lately, right?
posted by a lungful of dragon at 1:58 PM on August 9, 2016 [1 favorite]


I saw an NRA mailer the other day that said, "ENTER A RAFFLE TO WIN ONE OF THESE WEAPONS THAT CLINTON WILL BAN" and then the mailer had pictures of big huge fucking gun after huge fucking gun

I mean it's not surprising but this stupid country
posted by angrycat at 1:58 PM on August 9, 2016 [6 favorites]


"Will no one rid me of this meddlesome presidential candidate?"
posted by kirkaracha at 1:59 PM on August 9, 2016 [26 favorites]


Even Drudge has it now, sandwiched between all of his anti-Hillary conspiracy theories.
posted by guiseroom at 1:59 PM on August 9, 2016


Donors for Bush, Kasich and Christie Are Turning to Clinton More Than to Trump:
Of the donors who gave at least $200 to Jeb Bush, Gov. John Kasich, Gov. Chris Christie or Senator Lindsey Graham in the Republican primaries, more of them have also contributed to Mrs. Clinton than to Mr. Trump, according to Federal Election Commission filings through June.
posted by kirkaracha at 2:00 PM on August 9, 2016 [2 favorites]


“The Secret Service is aware of the comment." (cite)
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 2:01 PM on August 9, 2016 [2 favorites]


Also, it's funny but I remember when MF loved Assange.

It's almost like stuff you do in the past doesn't absolve you of things you do in the present.
posted by qcubed at 2:02 PM on August 9, 2016 [51 favorites]


I just assumed he meant he hoped the NRA lobby would be as successful shutting down future judicial nominees as they were with Merrick Garland (who is widely considered anti-gun by the right).

C'mon, now, let's not fall for his spin like the media does. The context and ordering of his statements make it pretty clear what he thought, and those familiar with political violence are saying this is exactly what they hear from groups that have assassinated their cohorts.
posted by zombieflanders at 2:03 PM on August 9, 2016 [17 favorites]


From that theringer.com article, something to keep in mind when dealing with Busters:
Unlike Trump, she also won over voters who backed her opponent in the primary, and is now winning between 85–90 percent of Bernie supporters.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 2:04 PM on August 9, 2016


Tonight's rally will probably feature Trump complaining about the Secret Service infringing on his first amendment rights.
posted by The Card Cheat at 2:06 PM on August 9, 2016




Even if people buy that he didn't mean to threaten her, how can they not be terrified at the idea of electing someone president who is such an epically bad communicator that he accidentally implied he wanted people to assassinate his opponent? I don't mean his core of racist monsters, but the Paul Ryans and Mitch McConnell's, etc.? If this isn't a bridge too far then I don't think anything will be.
posted by gatorae at 2:07 PM on August 9, 2016 [16 favorites]


for christ's sake it's not even Labor Day yet, how are we going to make it to november
posted by murphy slaw at 2:08 PM on August 9, 2016 [10 favorites]


surely THIS
posted by town of cats at 2:11 PM on August 9, 2016 [9 favorites]


As long as Trump's threats and insults are directed against the Other, there is literally nothing he can say that will discourage his core supporters. They are nihilists. If they can't have their privilege, then they're willing to burn everything to the ground to spite those who would take it.

There is no bridge too far when you want to see carnage and upheaval.
posted by escape from the potato planet at 2:11 PM on August 9, 2016 [5 favorites]




538 disagrees: About A Third Of Bernie Sanders’s Supporters Still Aren’t Backing Hillary Clinton
Before we get to all the data, let’s be clear about what we’re discussing: The Sanders holdouts aren’t that large a group. If they were forced to choose only between Clinton and Trump, the vast majority would choose Clinton and yet they would add only about 1 percentage point to her overall margin over Trump, according to current polls. That could matter in a close election, but the election isn’t looking all that close at the moment.
posted by Rustic Etruscan at 2:13 PM on August 9, 2016 [7 favorites]


Trump rolls out “Gold Executive Membership Card” for donors.

So Hillary donors can get the woman card; Trump donors can get a faux credit card. Both are markers of status, I guess, but they each speak volumes about the choices of each campaign - not just in terms of donor recognition, but in terms of actual policy and direction.
posted by nubs at 2:14 PM on August 9, 2016 [3 favorites]


538 Statistical Polling Model - Pretty solid although I think the Nowcast has basically zero value
538 Punditry - Lol Nope not even remotely decent, go back to moneyballing sports guys
posted by vuron at 2:15 PM on August 9, 2016 [14 favorites]


David Robinson of Stack Overflow on his blog: “Text analysis of Trump's tweets confirms he writes only the (angrier) Android half”
(Related: @realrealDonaldT)
posted by Going To Maine at 2:15 PM on August 9, 2016 [12 favorites]


But I absolutely want a real adult 49% conservative opposition to a liberal majority. It's completely necessary for a healthy government. Without that the Democrats will just become corrupt and implode. Checks and balances, they're for everyone.

Sure, sure. But, should we get a super-liberal government, could we just hold off on the conservative checks and balances until after I get my government-issued electric car with a trunk full of medical cannabis?
posted by Cookiebastard at 2:16 PM on August 9, 2016 [2 favorites]


About A Third Of Bernie Sanders’s Supporters Still Aren’t Backing Hillary Clinton

That article also shows the discrepancy in reporting that we see. If you only include Clinton and Trump, up to 91% back Clinton depending on poll. Lots of polls/reporting only cover them, so you get the "90% of Bernie supporters back Hillary".

If you inlcude third party, it drops by a lot, so you get closer to 2/3 of Bernie supporters backing Hillary.

While the actual election of course includes third party, I've also seen a lot of analysis that shows people tend to overreport their willingness to vote third party (in polls, they say they want Green or Libertarian, but actual vote totals show that people pull the lever for D or R in the end).
posted by thefoxgod at 2:16 PM on August 9, 2016 [5 favorites]


"One of the hardest jobs in politics must be cleaning up after @JoeBiden gaffes. I feel sorry for his spokespeople."

I know! Joe Biden! He comes out supporting gay marriage. YUUUUUUUUUGE mistake. Next he'll be saying that it doesn't matter what bathroom a trans person uses!
posted by Talez at 2:17 PM on August 9, 2016 [1 favorite]


Sure, sure. But, should we get a super-liberal government, could we just hold off on the conservative checks and balances until after I get my government-issued electric car with a trunk full of medical cannabis?

Man, I want to elect the Democratic Party you're in.
posted by Rustic Etruscan at 2:18 PM on August 9, 2016 [15 favorites]


Me too.
posted by Cookiebastard at 2:19 PM on August 9, 2016 [3 favorites]


Oh you've done it now Stack Overflow, now Ivanka is going to have to switch from her iPhone to a stinky android smartphone just so you guys won't out her.
posted by vuron at 2:19 PM on August 9, 2016 [4 favorites]


538's own Polls Plus incorporates the outsized early lead of third party candidates, so they should know better.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 2:19 PM on August 9, 2016


[One deleted; please drop the Assange thing.]
posted by LobsterMitten (staff) at 2:21 PM on August 9, 2016 [2 favorites]


Sure, sure. But, should we get a super-liberal government, could we just hold off on the conservative checks and balances until after I get my government-issued electric car with a trunk full of medical cannabis?

You’re talking about a super liberal government but still only expect to get medical cannabis? Oh, how far to the right the country has drifted!
posted by Going To Maine at 2:21 PM on August 9, 2016 [11 favorites]


i had a dude on twitter tell me this was shorthand for being interested in the constitution

what kind of garbage is this

"as a 2nd amendment person, I'm very concerned about the federal debt"

"because I'm an NRA member, I think Puerto Rico should be granted statehood"

none of these make sense, please teach your candidate to speak in full sentences and not to interrupt himself in the middle of a single thought.
posted by boo_radley at 2:23 PM on August 9, 2016 [4 favorites]


> 538 Statistical Polling Model - Pretty solid although I think the Nowcast has basically zero value

I know people who get high off that thing like it's a crack rock soaked in heroin, so that's a form of value I suppose.
posted by The Card Cheat at 2:24 PM on August 9, 2016 [2 favorites]


From a chicken in every pot, to pot in every Tesla.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 2:24 PM on August 9, 2016 [33 favorites]


It has been  0 days since Donald Trump did something that would end the career of any other candidate.
posted by kirkaracha at 2:26 PM on August 9, 2016 [127 favorites]


Any polling that show either major third party getting more than 2% of the vote is seriously sketchy because yeah people say they are going to vote third party but they rarely actually do that.

Yes Trump is insane and Hillary is apparently a robot remotely controlled by the banks but it's not like either of the third party options are remotely appealing.

Libertarians - Zero charisma candidate plus wackadoodle economic policies
Green - Zero charisma candidate plus wackadoodle BIG SCIENCE skeptics

Plus you know everyone knows that a third party candidate is nonviable and who wants to vote for a protest candidate when you can jump on the bandwagon instead. You know how cities with teams in championship sports events somehow have about 1000% more fans suddenly even if average attendance was garbage most of the season that's basically US presidential elections. The only one going to all the elections during the off season (Midterms and State and Local elections) are the diehard fans and suddenly you got some sports star with a big infectious grin and a message of Hope and suddenly everyone is a part of team Dem.

All but the most stubborn (and misogynistic) BoBs will be pulling the lever for Clinton in November because Stein and Johnson are garbage candidates and who really wants to vote for someone who shows absolutely zero capability of actually inspiring people.
posted by vuron at 2:30 PM on August 9, 2016 [5 favorites]


Current polling is useless now, when are we going to see some new polls that include

[scrolls way up]

...Evan McMullin?
posted by prize bull octorok at 2:32 PM on August 9, 2016 [33 favorites]


You should make that post into a dynamic web site kirkaracha because that's going to be something you are going to have to post daily otherwise.
posted by vuron at 2:32 PM on August 9, 2016 [2 favorites]


As an NRA member I think chili shouldn't have beans in it. There I said it. FROM MY COLD DEAD HANDS.
posted by the uncomplicated soups of my childhood at 2:33 PM on August 9, 2016 [6 favorites]


Re Trump's 2nd amendment comment, here's what I posted in the other (now unbearably long) thread:

I am a gun owner. The statement is unmistakeable. I am quite certain he is not calling for me to vote. (Note also the timing for this supposed vote -- AFTER HRC is elected and nominates SCOTUS justices. What "vote" would anyone have then?)

I'm also a lifetime NRA member -- my dad signed me up when I was a kid. I'm real clear he wasn't referring to the NRA lobby either.
posted by bearwife at 2:34 PM on August 9, 2016 [6 favorites]


codacorolla: "I sometimes wonder if maybe trump is right, and he can win an election with no actual volunteer base or ground game, and then I'm like "nah"."

In a weird, perverse way, that would be the one and only good thing about a Trump presidency. It would prove that someone can still become president based just on their words, not their campaign strategy.
posted by roll truck roll at 2:35 PM on August 9, 2016


It has been 0 days since Donald Trump did something that would end the career of any other candidate.

Honestly, this seems like the sort of vague faux pas that some candidate who wasn’t Trump would be able to wave away as a mis-speaking. What’s amazing to me is that the day began with news about the Orlando shooter’s Dad being at a Clinton rally. Not scandalous in any way, but something that the Clinton folks were doing damage control on and that you could imagine being used to cast aspersions on her character. Needless to say, that story is now down the memory hole.
posted by Going To Maine at 2:37 PM on August 9, 2016 [4 favorites]


You should make that post into a dynamic web site kirkaracha because that's going to be something you are going to have to post daily otherwise.

Pretty sure a static "0" would work throughout the campaign.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 2:37 PM on August 9, 2016 [12 favorites]


It would prove that someone can still become president based just on their words, not their campaign strategy.

Truly inspiring how lies, conspiracies, and bald appeals to idiot nativism and xenophobia can make ur dreams come true
posted by theodolite at 2:38 PM on August 9, 2016 [6 favorites]


In a weird, perverse way, that would be the one and only good thing about a Trump presidency. It would prove that someone can still become president based just on their words, not their campaign strategy.

this is the most ridiculously optimistic thing i've heard since that guy in napoleon's army said "we are not retreating from moscow, comrades, we are advancing on paris!"
posted by murphy slaw at 2:38 PM on August 9, 2016 [7 favorites]


Washington Post: Trump appears to encourage gun owners to take action if Clinton appoints anti-gun judges

They have another story filed earlier in their "The Fix" section, which has a looser editorial tone: Donald Trump says ‘Second Amendment people’ may be the only check on Clinton judicial appointments
To be very clear: Trump is referring to remedies for judicial picks made by Hillary Clinton once she takes office. The remedy he proposes is that the "Second Amendment people" -- gun owners -- deal with it. There are at least two plausible ways to read this: Either Trump is casually suggesting that a sitting president could be shot or he's arguing that gun owners engage in armed conflict with federal officials sent to collect their weapons.
posted by peeedro at 2:40 PM on August 9, 2016 [16 favorites]


Yeah, seconding bearwife and my own comment from the other thread:

As a gun owner and target shooter who has spent time on gun forums, "2nd Amendment solution" means shooting people / organizations. Its one of the justifications regularly given by the extreme/NRA gun types, that they need guns to protect themselves against the government (always seems laughable to me, if the government wants me dead they can launch a missile from a drone and vaporize my house, and even a pile of ARs isn't going to do anything...). This is often called a "2nd Amendement solution".

In other words, classic dogwhistling (even if it is a defective dogwhistle that humans can kinda hear too). It might be ambiguous to the general public, but it is a familiar phrase/idea to those in or familiar with right-wing gun culture. (Those of us who are recreational shooters but also liberal are used to hearing extreme/crazy right wing rhetoric even just hanging out at a range or an a forum ostensibly about the more mundane elements of gun ownership/usage/care).

posted by thefoxgod at 2:41 PM on August 9, 2016 [22 favorites]


It would prove that someone can still become president based just on their words, not their campaign strategy.

Truly inspiring how lies, conspiracies, and bald appeals to idiot nativism and xenophobia can make ur dreams come true


Also the decades of built up name recognition, the personal jet and network of properties and the backstop of extreme wealth [of some amount] to see the campaign through difficult times.
posted by EatTheWeak at 2:42 PM on August 9, 2016 [1 favorite]


As an NRA member I think chili shouldn't have beans in it. There I said it.

I respect your position, but you're totally wrong. Unless you're talking about chili dogs, maybe we can find common ground there. If there's anything I learned from Jimmy Carter on King of the Hill it's that you can always find common ground.
posted by bongo_x at 2:43 PM on August 9, 2016 [5 favorites]


Orlando shooter’s father spotted at Clinton rally (Washington Post)

Jesus, this should have been a goddamn miracle gift-wrapped for the Trump campaign. (Note: not talking about the merits, just how it would play). Any competent campaign would be running the pictures of the Orlando shooter's dad with the Clinton sign into the ground, propping it back up, making a campaign ad to run in the battleground states with it, and then running it into the ground again.

Instead Trump threatens violence to stop Clinton from appointing judges. Which is the exact opposite; another perfect example for the Clinton campaign of how Trump cannot be let anywhere near the levers of power. It also happens to be, on its merits, an incredibly dangerous and awful thing for Trump to have done. Disqualifying in and of itself.

It's surreal. Trump... he just can't help it.
posted by Justinian at 2:44 PM on August 9, 2016 [11 favorites]


I think the Nowcast has basically zero value

Not zero value. I like saying "Push the button, Frank," then going "Whee!"
posted by octobersurprise at 2:45 PM on August 9, 2016 [5 favorites]


Current polling is useless now, when are we going to see some new polls that include

[scrolls way up]

...Evan McMullin?


Egg McMuffins? Probably polling pretty well after the 24-hour breakfast rollout.
posted by jason_steakums at 2:47 PM on August 9, 2016 [11 favorites]


All of this stuff. The Orlando shooter's dad, Clinton's incredibly idiotic gaffe soft-pedaling Comey's comments followed by the even stupider short-circuit line. Even the Iran stuff. If Trump could keep his mouth shut for 12 seconds, he could actually get a few minutes of press going sort of his way, but no. The story has to be all about him, and he'll interrupt it even if the story he's interrupting is a negative one about his opponent.
posted by zachlipton at 2:48 PM on August 9, 2016 [1 favorite]




God the Trump campaign is like a circus caught fire and no one is doing anything about it
posted by the uncomplicated soups of my childhood at 2:49 PM on August 9, 2016 [7 favorites]


I do expect Trump to try to nail the Orlando shooter thing at some point, I hope and expect the Clinton camp has a response ready. Like... everybody with a brain knows you don't pick who is at your rallies but the optics of the guy standing just over Clinton's left shoulder as she gives her speech are really bad.

I assume she will point out that Trump himself threatened gun violence which you'd think would more than negate such an attack but...
posted by Justinian at 2:50 PM on August 9, 2016


Jesus, this should have been a goddamn miracle gift-wrapped for the Trump campaign.

Trump just has a innate knack for knowing when he's got a chance to one-up his opponent. With Clinton, it's rare, because she outclasses him in most regards, but whenever something goes wrong for the Clinton campaign, he realizes, that's his big chance to outdo them!
posted by aubilenon at 2:51 PM on August 9, 2016 [4 favorites]


...Evan McMullin?


Who?
posted by TheWhiteSkull at 2:52 PM on August 9, 2016 [4 favorites]


Egg?
posted by Cookiebastard at 2:53 PM on August 9, 2016 [27 favorites]


God the Trump campaign is like a circus caught fire and no one is doing anything about it

That explains the odor of burning popcorn and greasepaint.
posted by NoxAeternum at 2:53 PM on August 9, 2016 [4 favorites]


I look forward to taking the phrase "bad optics" out into the yard with a shovel after this election cycle.
posted by prize bull octorok at 2:53 PM on August 9, 2016 [20 favorites]


Egg McGuffin
posted by a lungful of dragon at 2:54 PM on August 9, 2016 [21 favorites]


I recall seeing a clip a bit ago where Trump talked positively about Russiad and that they kill journalists there. If the mainstream media didn't take him to task for that one, I'm not sure anything will.
posted by fragmede at 2:54 PM on August 9, 2016


The video of Trump's threat is even more clear in context. There is no spinning this away.
posted by Justinian at 2:59 PM on August 9, 2016 [7 favorites]


Not to distract from one nominee giving barely concealed hints for the assassination of the other nominee, but Paul Ryan's primary is today. Nehlen is a longshot, but I wouldn't put it past this election season to see an upset.
posted by codacorolla at 2:59 PM on August 9, 2016


Circus fires are actually pretty awful; the tents used to be waterproofed with paraffin dissolved in gasoline, so just one misplaced cigarette and whoosh. Say what you will about a dumpster fire, but I doubt they've killed anyone.... yet.
posted by peeedro at 3:01 PM on August 9, 2016 [4 favorites]




I recall seeing a clip a bit ago where Trump talked positively about Russiad and that they kill journalists there. If the mainstream media didn't take him to task for that one, I'm not sure anything will.

wait did this really happen I thought I was joking
posted by prize bull octorok at 3:03 PM on August 9, 2016 [9 favorites]


goddamn, liz
posted by murphy slaw at 3:03 PM on August 9, 2016 [4 favorites]


> The video of Trump's threat is even more clear in context. There is no spinning this away.

"That's not at all what he said, but as usual, what can we expect from the liberal MSM except more lies, spin and misinformation?" (Canadian readers may be amused to see the commenter refer to the National Post as "left-leaning.")

> Nehlen is a longshot, but I wouldn't put it past this election season to see an upset.

It'll have to be a hell of an upset.
posted by The Card Cheat at 3:04 PM on August 9, 2016 [3 favorites]


Katrina Pierson(YT) attempting to... I'm not even sure what she's trying to do, walk it back a little bit. Didn't work.

"thats actually not what he was talking about because just before that he was saying what could happen, as you just said, what could happen.

he does not want that to happen and in order to stop that, people that support their 2nd amendment rights need to come together and get out there and stop Hillary Clinton from winning [...]"
posted by the uncomplicated soups of my childhood at 3:04 PM on August 9, 2016


Really, "Trump Rallies Gun Supporters Against Clinton Presidency" is about the most pusillanimous possible way of describing what he actually said. I know better than to expect more from the Times at this point, I'm afraid, but I would hope they would at least have the courage to come up with a plain description of a widely-witnessed event. Bad!
posted by adamgreenfield at 3:04 PM on August 9, 2016 [4 favorites]


God the Drumpf campaign is like a circus caught fire and no one is doing anything about it

Remember back when he was just a dumpster fire? Simpler times.
posted by EatTheWeak at 3:05 PM on August 9, 2016 [4 favorites]


.@realDonaldTrump makes death threats because he's a pathetic coward who can’t handle the fact that he’s losing to a girl. --@elizabethforma (Verified Account)

Your reckless comments sound like a two-bit dictator, @realDonaldTrump. Not a man who wants to lead the greatest democracy on the planet. --@elizabethforma



Warren is not fucking around.
posted by dersins at 3:06 PM on August 9, 2016 [34 favorites]


I look forward to taking the phrase "bad optics" out into the yard with a shovel after this election cycle.

Yeah, we need to recontextualize this. Let's touch base later.
posted by bongo_x at 3:08 PM on August 9, 2016 [14 favorites]


Maybe Trump saw this article and decided to do something about it:
Clinton Has Nearly Caught Up To Trump In Media Coverage

posted by murphy slaw at 3:11 PM on August 9, 2016 [5 favorites]


You don't understand, he was up against the medal round of the Women's Gymnastics Team competition. He had to say something!
posted by palindromic at 3:13 PM on August 9, 2016 [7 favorites]


And in the midst of all this, apparently the HFA people in NC are apparently poorly organized. I showed up to register people to vote today (an "Official Event" on hillaryclinton.com), and no one from the campaign showed up. I asked someone who worked at the restaurant where it was happening, and apparently this has been happening *twice a week for a month*.

I called the national HQ about it and the guy on the other end of the phone sounded pissed. Hopefully they can sort themselves out and capitalize on all of ^^^^^this.
posted by Maecenas at 3:14 PM on August 9, 2016 [19 favorites]


I agree with others on the Quinnipiac polls; The PA one is simply great news for Clinton. On their face the Florida/Ohio polls (particularly Florida) seem like good news for Trump. But Q had much more favorable-for-Trump results in Florida than most pollsters in their last round of polls as well, so a 5 point shift towards Clinton is in line with other pollsters.

I'll have to look at the crosstabs. No idea why Q is more favorable in FL and OH than others.

Q having Trump down 10 in Pennsylvania is ridiculously bad for him. What is Trump's path without PA?
posted by Justinian at 3:14 PM on August 9, 2016


Seen on another site on Clinton ramping up campaigning in AZ and GA:

"Blood coming out of his Arizona, his Georgia, his...wherever."
posted by Talez at 3:15 PM on August 9, 2016 [63 favorites]


I asked someone who worked at the restaurant where it was happening, and apparently this has been happening *twice a week for a month*.

They may have made something a recurring event that was meant to be a one-time thing.
posted by dersins at 3:16 PM on August 9, 2016 [6 favorites]


Open racism and religious hatred and sexism
A willingness to abrogate our alliances and our treaties as if the United States' signature on legal documents was nothing
Strong ties to an unfriendly major power and a willingness to parrot its foreign policy line
The corrupt selection of contributors as economic advisors -- and an economic plan that is mostly a gift to the 1%
A reckless, terrifying fascination with the actual use of nuclear weapons
Contempt for our veterans and their families
Incitement of violence, a commitment to torture (including harm to innocent family members), and open invitation to assassination

HRC is right, there is no bottom. And this is the real Donald Trump.
posted by bearwife at 3:16 PM on August 9, 2016 [28 favorites]


> Even if people buy that he didn't mean to threaten her, how can they not be terrified at the idea of electing someone president who is such an epically bad communicator

My first thought was that this didn't sound like Trump-- Sarah Palin, yes-- but not Trump. I'm wondering if this was a scripted moment and if so, who scripted it?

By the way, Rolling Stone is not afraid to use the "A" word: Donald Trump Hints at Hillary Clinton Assassination


...Evan McMullin?

Who?


Oh I know this. Wait. Ummmm It's the guy who wrote the 87th Precinct novels.
posted by Secret Life of Gravy at 3:18 PM on August 9, 2016 [3 favorites]


Nothing in (somewhat lacking) available crosstabs of the Q poll strikes me as obviously off kilter. So it must be that their likely voter screen is a bit more favorable to Trump than the other pollster's likely voter screens. Here's hoping Q is the one thats wrong.
posted by Justinian at 3:19 PM on August 9, 2016


So basically Trump is doing the "grown-up" equivalent of upending the board game when it looks clear that you are going to get routed by your little sister.

"UHH MY HANDS SLIPPED! I GUESS WE'LL NEED TO PLAY A NEW GAME!"

Pathetic. And now the MSM is like a scolding parent asking Donald what he did to start a fight and he's like I didn't do anything it's her fault.

Too bad someone can't seem to put him into time out.
posted by vuron at 3:19 PM on August 9, 2016 [3 favorites]


.@realDonaldTrump makes death threats because he's a pathetic coward who can’t handle the fact that he’s losing to a girl. --@elizabethforma (Verified Account)

Notice how Warren doesn't bother trying to debate about whether Trump actually made a death threat and gets right into talking about why he made the death threat that he obviously made.
posted by straight at 3:21 PM on August 9, 2016 [63 favorites]


Q having Trump down 10 in Pennsylvania is ridiculously bad for him. What is Trump's path without PA?

Assuming that Virginia is now safe? The Upshot to the rescue. He needs all of Florida, Ohio, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, and Missouri. And three of Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada. (Possibly only two if he picks up an odd seat from the split states).
posted by Francis at 3:23 PM on August 9, 2016


i don't think that's a particularly good tweet if it's aimed at the voting public, but it's a perfect tweet if you're trying to goad donald trump into doubling down or something even stupider than that
posted by murphy slaw at 3:23 PM on August 9, 2016 [14 favorites]


I want the news to focus more on the fact that his meaning is up for debate at all. Nothing a president says should be that vague and ambiguous, especially if it can be interpreted as a call for violence. Trump defenders claim his strength is that he says what he means and a straight talker. Why are they all of a sudden falling over themselves to explain what he "actually" meant? Why can't he explain himself right now?
posted by like_neon at 3:25 PM on August 9, 2016 [26 favorites]


I don't think Elizabeth Warren is aiming at the voting public. She's aiming directly at Trump's ego and his tiny hands.
posted by zachlipton at 3:25 PM on August 9, 2016 [26 favorites]


i don't think that's a particularly good tweet

Blunt outrage is absolutely right and called for and anybody who doesn't get that is beyond the Democrats' reach as a voter.
posted by chris24 at 3:26 PM on August 9, 2016 [10 favorites]


Too bad someone can't seem to put him into time out.

Donald For The Corner For Five Minutes
posted by NMcCoy at 3:26 PM on August 9, 2016 [1 favorite]


ew NPR said he encouraged 2nd amendment folks should "defeat" Clinton
which of course if you equate death as the ultimate defeat.
then NPR was like well what did he meeeeean


Funny enough: before I heard NPR's "oh god don't make us hold anyone accountable for anything" handwringing, I heard this reported on the BBC News hour program...carried on the same channel. Those guys? Not remotely fucking around about this. They played the clip, the anchor said (paraphrasing) "WTF?" and his guest said -- with some stunned preamble -- that nobody in politics, particularly at this level, should come anywhere near anything that could be misconstrued as talk of assassinations.

And then I heard NPR's headline on this a little while later and wanted to smash my head into the dashboard of my car.
posted by scaryblackdeath at 3:26 PM on August 9, 2016 [47 favorites]


I feel like I'm referencing something that happened two weeks ago instead of yesterday, and it brings me no joy to report this, but Trump might have said "cities" yesterday.

Darn.
posted by slmorri at 3:26 PM on August 9, 2016 [2 favorites]


And three of Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada. (Possibly only two if he picks up an odd seat from the split states).

The theory is he picks up a seat in Maine? That seems... unlikely. Hell, I think its more likely that Clinton picks up one in Nebraska than Trump one in Maine.

Three of CO, IA, NH, and NV seems like the firewall against Trump. I don't see that happening unless Clinton's campaign implodes.
posted by Justinian at 3:27 PM on August 9, 2016


That's the thing, vuron, we are in such weird territory here that nobody can figure out what constitutes a "time out." Normally bad polls would have the effect of forcing the serious candidate to change but Trump already announced this morning that he won't change because his internal polls tell him he is doing fine. The media has become so wishy-washy that they can barely bring themselves to tell the truth about him. The RNC and the rest of the GOP don't know what to do. The big donors have never gotten on board. It's truly fascinating yet terrifying to see how there are no restraints on a guy like Trump.

I fully expect at an upcoming Trump rally to hear that the crowd has started chanting, "Shoot the bitch."
posted by Secret Life of Gravy at 3:30 PM on August 9, 2016 [4 favorites]


Too bad someone can't seem to put him into time out.

Not for the first time, it occurs to me how shitty it must feel to be on Trump's Secret Service detail. "Seriously? I'm supposed to take a bullet for this dickhead?"
posted by dersins at 3:30 PM on August 9, 2016 [44 favorites]


I'm starting to feel like Hillary has been preparing to make a run at the White House for a while so they've been preparing for best the GOP could possibly have to offer since the mid-90's when it was conceivable that she might be facing off against Michael Jordan of candidates.

Instead she got Trump. What do you do if you've trained for 20 years to turn yourself into Stephan Curry just so that you'd be ready to face off against MJ and a deranged homeless man shows up shouting insults at you and telling you how much of a loser you are?

You pretend is is MJ and run up the fucking score.

To that end, I'm sure she'll play the debates straight. But I would love to see her come out, give her standard "I'd like to thank..." spiel, a super quick stump speech (10 seconds, tops) and then say, "I yield the remainder of my time to Mr. Trump." Then not say another word for the rest of the night.
posted by VTX at 3:31 PM on August 9, 2016 [33 favorites]


Not for the first time, it occurs to me how shitty it must feel to be on Trump's Secret Service detail. "Seriously? I'm supposed to take a bullet for this dickhead?"

And "Seriously? Now my colleagues who protect Hillary Clinton are in at least some greater danger."
posted by zachlipton at 3:33 PM on August 9, 2016 [16 favorites]


Why are they all of a sudden falling over themselves to explain what he "actually" meant?

the trap they have fallen into is thinking that he means anything at all, that there is a thought process that leads to his utterances
posted by murphy slaw at 3:33 PM on August 9, 2016 [4 favorites]


> I'm starting to feel like Hillary has been preparing to make a run at the White House for a while so they've been preparing for best the GOP could possibly have to offer since the mid-90's when it was conceivable that she might be facing off against Michael Jordan of candidates.

In this analogy the GOP field turned out to be the 1972-73 Philadelphia 76ers.
posted by The Card Cheat at 3:39 PM on August 9, 2016 [2 favorites]


My god, all my dreams will come true if Liz Warren is the one to induce Trump's surely inevitable unhinged, spittle-flecked meltdown. The only thing better would be for Hillary to deal the final blow in a debate on live national television. (In my ideal world, Hillary's response to said meltdown will be a look of genuine alarm and concern and saying, "Are you okay, Donald?" while the moderators mutter, not quite off-mic, about whether Mr. Trump needs medical attention.)

Yes, this election is driving me to write wish fulfillment fanfiction, because it's either that or DRINK TO FORGET.
posted by yasaman at 3:40 PM on August 9, 2016 [28 favorites]


In this analogy the GOP field turned out to be the 1972-73 Philadelphia 76ers.

Or the Washington Generals.
posted by dersins at 3:40 PM on August 9, 2016 [8 favorites]


Not for the first time, it occurs to me how shitty it must feel to be on Trump's Secret Service detail.

Imagine how Katy Tur feels.
posted by Room 641-A at 3:40 PM on August 9, 2016 [6 favorites]


In this analogy the GOP field turned out to be the 1972-73 Philadelphia 76ers.

Or any recent 76ers team.
posted by Special Agent Dale Cooper at 3:41 PM on August 9, 2016 [5 favorites]


Deadspin: An Oral History of Our 'Go Fuck Yourself' Tweet to Donald Trump:
On January 16, 2013, Deadspin published an exposé of Notre Dame linebacker Manti Te’o’s fake dead girlfriend. The next morning, reality TV personality Donald Trump tweeted his congratulations. Fourteen minutes later, Deadspin tweeted back “Go fuck yourself.” This is the story of that tweet, as told by those who lived it.

[...]

Ley: Trump had just started doing his thing on Twitter, and I think he was still in that “LOL this guy is a lovable dummy on the internet!” phase.

Craggs: We were just given a rare opportunity to say something to his face.

Burke: I try not to think about that tweet very much. The idea of Donald Trump thinking about me or even being aware I exist is very unsettling to me.

Craggs: I am exceedingly proud of that tweet, and proud of Barry for having tweeted that tweet in our name.
posted by palindromic at 3:41 PM on August 9, 2016 [17 favorites]


Pence in Pa.: 'Donald Trump just gets it'
"Donald Trump just gets it," the Indiana governor told a crowd of cheering supporters at a rally here. "He's a doer in a game usually reserved for talkers, and when he does his talking, he doesn't go tip-toeing around those thousands of rules of political correctness."
Gets what, Pence? You want to spell it out for me? He gets the anger of some men at the specter of being led by a woman?
posted by Secret Life of Gravy at 3:42 PM on August 9, 2016 [8 favorites]


Trump Live (NC)
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 3:43 PM on August 9, 2016 [1 favorite]


The NPR subhead, incidentally:
Falsely charging that Hillary Clinton wanted to “abolish the Second Amendment,” the GOP nominee then appeared to many observers to suggest taking up arms against his Democratic rival.
posted by Going To Maine at 3:43 PM on August 9, 2016 [2 favorites]


I honestly think Trump might have just been babbling nonsense and had no idea of the implications of what he was saying, but it's... pretty bad that my benefit-of-the-doubt best case scenario is "he literally just has no idea what he is saying."
posted by showbiz_liz at 3:44 PM on August 9, 2016 [21 favorites]


As a reminder: Obama lost that first debate with Romney. The "proceed, governor" moment was the next debate.

I wouldn't look at these debates as "she's going to ream Trump!" What she needs is sound like the adult in the room and let Trump be Trump. That's it. That's not reaming your opponent; that's letting your opponent beat themselves.
posted by dw at 3:45 PM on August 9, 2016 [10 favorites]


The problem is, the GOP as a whole is like the completely burnt-out and gutted state of basketball in Breaking Madden's Jon Bois' "Slow Death of the NBA", engineered to die. Obama becoming president-for-life from that playthrough suddenly becomes more poignant in that regard.
posted by Apocryphon at 3:46 PM on August 9, 2016 [5 favorites]


I think Politico.com has zeroed in on this very accurately: Trump’s loaded words fuel campaign freefall;
Detouring off script again lands the GOP nominee in perilous territory
.
posted by bearwife at 3:47 PM on August 9, 2016 [4 favorites]


It doesn't matter if he was joking. Anyone without the sense or control to not joke about that shouldn't be president.

And he wasn't joking.
posted by chris24 at 3:47 PM on August 9, 2016 [43 favorites]


One of the hardest jobs in politics must be cleaning up after @JoeBiden gaffes. I feel sorry for his spokespeople.

@LEBassett Katrina Pierson's long-awaited explanation: Trump was saying an assassination "could" happen, not that it "should" happen.

At least Joe Biden has competent staff who can actually do their job.
posted by Secret Life of Gravy at 3:47 PM on August 9, 2016 [7 favorites]


It's telling that the best way to handle Donald Trump is to treat him like a small child. If he misbehaves take his toys away and make him sit in a corner. If he throws a temper tantrum just stand back and let him wear himself out.
posted by nathan_teske at 3:48 PM on August 9, 2016 [2 favorites]


He's just chattin' again. Why are they allowing him to extemporize? Get out the paper, read the words on the paper, all the words, one after another, 'til you get to the end of the words. You can put the paper away again in your jacket once you've read all the words on it in order. Then pull a fire alarm or something, anything to get him off stage.
posted by Don Pepino at 3:48 PM on August 9, 2016 [3 favorites]


please be aware that in addition to Mr. McMullen, there are many more fine "third party" and alternative candidates to choose from, including The Antichrist, Dat Ass, Sydneys Voluptuous Buttocks, Eric Cartman, Foot Cheese, Crawfish Crawfish, Ourlordandsaviour Cthulhu, Deez Nuts, Kermit Frog, Mister Grump, Frederickson Asshat Kazoo, Gary Johnson, and Jill Stein.

The exclusion of Limberbutt McCubbins from this list and this discussion is further proof of the mass media's collusion against his candidacy and the sweeping changes he will bring to DC and our great country.
posted by schroedinger at 3:48 PM on August 9, 2016 [6 favorites]


At what point are the Secret Service agents allowed to tackle somebody for threatening a Presidential candidate?
posted by schmod at 3:49 PM on August 9, 2016 [10 favorites]


@realDonaldTrump makes death threats because he's a pathetic coward who can’t handle the fact that he’s losing to a girl. --@elizabethforma (Verified Account)

Amanda Marcotte: Trying to make America male again: Women control the ballot box — and angry, sexist Trump voters can’t deal:
Women may have won the vote in 1920, but men were the majority of voters for the next six decades. That started to change in the early ’80s, when women started out-voting men. In 2012, 58.5% of women reported voting, compared to 54.4% of men. While most office holders are still men, women have quietly reshaped the nation’s political discourse.

The nomination of Trump — a loudmouthed misogynist who can’t seem to name a single talented woman besides his own daughter — can be understood in large part as a reaction to this trend, a temper tantrum thrown by angry men whose idea of making America great again means wresting control of it back from women.
posted by palindromic at 3:49 PM on August 9, 2016 [25 favorites]


Katrina Pierson may be the dumbest person on cable news, which is really quite an accomplishment.
posted by EarBucket at 3:49 PM on August 9, 2016 [20 favorites]


It's telling that the best way to handle Donald Trump is to treat him like a small child. If he misbehaves take his toys away and make him sit in a corner. If he throws a temper tantrum just stand back and let him wear himself out.

I think I'd rather everyone treat him like an adult and force him to face adult consequences for his actions.
posted by scaryblackdeath at 3:50 PM on August 9, 2016 [19 favorites]


An ABC story on some telling Twitter reaction to Trump's effort to spin his comment as humor, including a response from a Sandy Hook victim family member.
posted by bearwife at 3:50 PM on August 9, 2016 [3 favorites]


Pierson's nickname is "Hurricane" Katrina. I just assume it's a reference to Bush's response.
posted by Justinian at 3:51 PM on August 9, 2016 [3 favorites]


Next up on Deadspin: An oral history of how we decided to get burritos for lunch.
posted by ckape at 3:51 PM on August 9, 2016 [9 favorites]


My friend in NC informs me that Trump delivered those Second Amendment remarks in “the home of America's only successful violent political coup d'état,” the Wilmington insurrection of 1898.

Originally described by European-Americans as a race riot caused by blacks, the events are now classified as a coup d'etat; white Democratic Party insurgents overthrew the legitimately elected local government, expelling black leaders from the city. In addition, a mob of nearly 2,000 white men attacked the only black newspaper in the state, and persons and property in black neighborhoods, killing an estimated 15 to more than 60 victims, and destroying homes and businesses built up since the Civil War.

The event marks an era of more severe racial segregation and effective disenfranchisement of African-Americans throughout the South, a shift already underway since passage by Mississippi of a new constitution in 1890 raising barriers to voter registration. Laura Edwards wrote in Democracy Betrayed (2000), "What happened in Wilmington became an affirmation of white supremacy not just in that one city, but in the South and in the nation as a whole."


So that's, uh
posted by showbiz_liz at 3:51 PM on August 9, 2016 [78 favorites]


Why are they allowing him to extemporize?

Who is this "they" you are imagining have the power to tell Trump what to do?
posted by straight at 3:53 PM on August 9, 2016 [6 favorites]


Maecenas - I signed up via the HFA site a few weeks ago, but no one has contacted me yet. I walked into the New Hanover Co Dem Party HQ about a week and a half ago and have been recruited to work for state-level and downticket candidates (phonebanking and data entry mostly, because I'm a local govt employee and not looking to canvass door-to-door and show my face and put strain on my employer), which is great, but I was hoping to also do some work for the national campaigns. If any North Carolinians in the thread have any new information about Clinton volunteering opportunities, I'd love to hear.
posted by sara is disenchanted at 3:54 PM on August 9, 2016 [3 favorites]


Next up on Deadspin: An oral history of how we decided to get burritos for lunch.

That is basically what they are doing:
This is Gawker Media’s last week as an independent media operation, and while that shouldn’t affect you much one way or the other as a reader, we’re still going to take advantage of a pretext to run some especially stupid posts. If you have any ideas for such posts, hit us at tips@deadspin.com.
posted by palindromic at 3:55 PM on August 9, 2016 [17 favorites]


Dropping a cat joke into the middle of a discussion of assassination threats, good timing, me!
posted by schroedinger at 3:56 PM on August 9, 2016 [3 favorites]


About an hour ago on NPR I heard Sen. Susan Collins make a vague claim that the lurkers support her in email. And I actually hope that it's true.
posted by puddledork at 3:56 PM on August 9, 2016 [3 favorites]


@SecretService [verified]: The Secret Service is aware of the comments made earlier this afternoon.
posted by glhaynes at 3:56 PM on August 9, 2016 [11 favorites]


Katrina Pierson may be the dumbest person on cable news, which is really quite an accomplishment.

But wait, there's more. From the link posted by bearwife

"Mr. Trump was saying exactly what he said," spokeswoman Katrina Pierson said on CNN."


I don't know what Trump is paying her but whatever it is, it is too much.
posted by Secret Life of Gravy at 3:56 PM on August 9, 2016 [10 favorites]


Former CIA director Michael Hayden: "If someone else had said that outside the hall, he'd be in the back of a police wagon now, with the Secret Service questioning him." Hayden also managed to - -inadvertently? pun that it was a "very arresting" comment by Trump.
posted by bearwife at 3:57 PM on August 9, 2016 [11 favorites]


Dropping a cat joke into the middle of a discussion of assassination threats, good timing, me!
posted by schroedinger


Maybe. Maybe not.
posted by Celsius1414 at 4:01 PM on August 9, 2016 [75 favorites]


I keep wondering which gaffe will finally be Trump's You Thanked Hitler moment.
posted by Joey Michaels at 4:02 PM on August 9, 2016 [9 favorites]


ABC News opened with "BREAKING NEWS" and tearing into Trump about the assassination remarks.
posted by bongo_x at 4:03 PM on August 9, 2016 [19 favorites]


Also everybody knows the only morally acceptable way to use robots in warfare is to make them extremely large and anthropomorphic and to have angsty teenagers operating them from inside the chest cavity

NERF THIS
posted by poffin boffin at 4:03 PM on August 9, 2016 [9 favorites]


Jill Stein Is Outspending Donald Trump on Campaign Ads
What’s more, as the Washington Post’s Philip Bump notes, the longer Trump waits to buy ad time, the more expensive it will be. As any deal-maker knows, a rare commodity is a pricey one. And by the time his fellow presidential hopefuls — and other down-ballot politicians — reserve their ad time, there will be precious little remaining for the Republican standard-bearer.

All of which raises the question: What exactly is Trump spending his money on? We’ll have to wait for the campaign’s July spending report to know for certain. But in June, Trump’s biggest spending category was “fundraising consultants.” Which makes some sense, since his fundraising over the first half of this year was dismal.

He also spent a lot on advertising that month, although strictly in the digital realm, putting $1.63 million into online ads — four times as much as Hillary Clinton did over the same period. Trump also invested $29,000 in Facebook advertising in June. Which is roughly 15 percent of what the campaign spent on branded trucker hats in May.
posted by Secret Life of Gravy at 4:03 PM on August 9, 2016 [3 favorites]


Tales from Ohio Phone Bank #2:

I just want to take a moment to dispel the myth that people are not excited for Hilary. Nearly every "I'm voting for Hilary!" I hear on the phone is preceded by an enthusiastic "Hell yes!" and I never get tired of hearing it.
posted by Tevin at 4:04 PM on August 9, 2016 [72 favorites]


Anecdotally, I've seen Stein ads multiple times and never seen a single Trump ad.
posted by Justinian at 4:05 PM on August 9, 2016


“Mr. Trump was saying exactly what he said,” spokeswoman Katrina Pierson said on CNN.

There’s both a Rumsfeld and a Bill Clinton joke waiting to be made here, but I lack the skill.
posted by Going To Maine at 4:08 PM on August 9, 2016 [5 favorites]


Guiliani is defending Trump as well.
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 4:10 PM on August 9, 2016


Even FOX News: Dana Perino: If Clinton Made That ‘Second Amendment’ Remark About Trump, We Would Freak Out
Geraldo Rivera was mortified by what Trump said, declaring, “This is a federal crime if he means waht he says.”

“Imagine,” Dana Perino said, “if [Clinton] had said, or somebody had said, that about Donald Trump––like carelessly say ‘Oh, maybe someone will assassinate him’––we would all be going crazy.”
"I could stand in the middle of 5th Avenue and shoot somebody and I wouldn't lose voters," Trump said [Real] "However, it turns out what I can't do is tell someone else to shoot somebody"[Fake]
posted by Secret Life of Gravy at 4:11 PM on August 9, 2016 [16 favorites]


Giuliani is defending Trump as well.
Of course he is.
posted by adamgreenfield at 4:11 PM on August 9, 2016 [8 favorites]


I expect that by now the desks at the RNC must have permanent forehead dents in them.
posted by Jalliah at 4:12 PM on August 9, 2016 [31 favorites]


Waiting for Paul Ryan's "Of course we should not be threatening our political opponent's with gun violence but I support our party's nominee."
posted by Justinian at 4:14 PM on August 9, 2016 [47 favorites]


Holy shit.

I have no words.
posted by kyrademon at 4:14 PM on August 9, 2016 [2 favorites]


Imma need a "you're losing to a girl" shirt.
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 4:14 PM on August 9, 2016 [34 favorites]


Trump is praising the Great Wall of China, apparently unaware that it didn't work.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 4:14 PM on August 9, 2016 [3 favorites]


so after the primary tonight, will Paul Ryan rescind his endorsement, revealing himself to be a moral coward, or will he stand by it, revealing himself to be an even greater moral coward? exciting times, these
posted by prize bull octorok at 4:15 PM on August 9, 2016 [50 favorites]


I would expect that by now, the desks at the RNC must have permanent forehead dents in them

And just like that...I haz a sad for the RNC!
posted by Secret Life of Gravy at 4:15 PM on August 9, 2016 [1 favorite]


Currently Trump is saying it's a waste of money to build the sound barrier walls next to highways, people who bought houses next to a highway should have known the road was noisy. This is the guy who has been fighting for 20 years to reroute the Palm Beach Airport flight paths away from his Mar a Lago club.
posted by peeedro at 4:15 PM on August 9, 2016 [44 favorites]



So Trump is just merrily toodling along speaking whatever words pass through his brain and is unaware of the new shitstorm he's caused?
posted by Jalliah at 4:18 PM on August 9, 2016 [2 favorites]


Why are they allowing him to extemporize?

Look, Ivanka's got a life. She can't watch him 24/7.

"Mr. Trump was saying exactly what he said," spokeswoman Katrina Pierson said on CNN."

A trump is a trump is a trump. She's like an idiot-savant Gertrude Stein.
posted by octobersurprise at 4:18 PM on August 9, 2016 [7 favorites]


Ned Resnikoff: T-minus 30 minutes until Paul Ryan issues a statement that's mildly critical of political assassination
posted by Secret Life of Gravy at 4:18 PM on August 9, 2016 [11 favorites]


There’s both a Rumsfeld and a Bill Clinton joke waiting to be made here, but I lack the skill.

You go the lectern with the verb you have, not the verb you want.
posted by snuffleupagus at 4:19 PM on August 9, 2016 [10 favorites]


btw has Evan McMullin given a statement on Trump's 2nd amendment remarks yet
posted by prize bull octorok at 4:19 PM on August 9, 2016 [11 favorites]


Trump is praising the Great Wall of China, apparently unaware that it didn't work.

or that it took generations to finish
posted by murphy slaw at 4:19 PM on August 9, 2016 [2 favorites]


okay it's amanda marcotte so i know i shouldn't be surprised but when will people STOP SAYING "Women may have won the vote in 1920,..."

white women got the vote at that time. i think it's a super important thing to note that WOC couldn't freely vote until decades later and it just drives me bonkers when it gets glossed over
posted by burgerrr at 4:19 PM on August 9, 2016 [44 favorites]


Trump is praising the Great Wall of China, apparently unaware that it didn't work.

According to L. Brooks Patterson, an odious racist toad, suburban sprawl advocate, and Oakland County Commissioner, “China built a wall 2,000 years ago. In Beijing, they don’t have any Mexicans, so it’s working."
posted by palindromic at 4:20 PM on August 9, 2016 [3 favorites]


> "Currently Trump is saying ..."

Sorry, my brain is still stuck on the part where he CALLED FOR THE ASSASSINATION OF HIS OPPONENT.
posted by kyrademon at 4:21 PM on August 9, 2016 [17 favorites]




Trump is praising the Great Wall of China, apparently unaware that it didn't work.

or that it took generations to finish


Or that almost a million people died building it.
posted by zombieflanders at 4:23 PM on August 9, 2016 [5 favorites]


or that i drew a peen on it with chalk
posted by poffin boffin at 4:26 PM on August 9, 2016 [37 favorites]


oh god, trump is going to guest on hannity's show tonight
posted by murphy slaw at 4:26 PM on August 9, 2016


You go the lectern with the verb you have, not the verb you want.

there are the known nouns and then there are the unknown nouns.
posted by Cold Lurkey at 4:27 PM on August 9, 2016 [7 favorites]


Pretty sure a static '0' would work throughout the campaign.

Done!
posted by kirkaracha at 4:28 PM on August 9, 2016 [36 favorites]


[checks news for first time in hours]

[mournfully deletes 10,000 word comment on Evan McMullin, Kissinger, and drone warfare]

. . .

Tronald Dump

. . .
posted by Copronymus at 4:29 PM on August 9, 2016 [25 favorites]


Caught a little of the Fayetteville rally, and the crowd didn't even fill the pretty small venue it was in.
posted by codacorolla at 4:29 PM on August 9, 2016


He is done talking in Fayetteville.

Daniel Dale: Trump is finished at his second rally. He didn't address his earlier remark, even to bash the media, and left the cleanup to Giuliani

Interesting. I would have expected him to double down or at least try to "clear up" what he said earlier. I guess this is his great Presidential Moment. He didn't tell people to shoot his opponent during his second speech of the day.
posted by Secret Life of Gravy at 4:31 PM on August 9, 2016 [5 favorites]


Even FOX News: Dana Perino: If Clinton Made That ‘Second Amendment’ Remark About Trump, We Would Freak Out

For whatever it's worth, this story is buried waaaay underneath the fold on their website. The currently leading headline is:
BIAS ALERT
Media confess to Trump bashing, try justifying it
So, yeah. Fox is still run by a group of unapologetic monsters not unlike Trump himself. They sure as fuck don't deserve a pass on this.
posted by schmod at 4:31 PM on August 9, 2016 [15 favorites]


He didn't tell people to shoot his opponent during his second speech of the day.

Pivot!
posted by prize bull octorok at 4:32 PM on August 9, 2016 [35 favorites]


"No trying-to-be objective and fair journalist, no citizen who cares about the country and its future can ignore what Donald Trump said today. When he suggested that "The Second Amendment People" can stop Hillary Clinton he crossed a line with dangerous potential. By any objective analysis, this is a new low and unprecedented in the history of American presidential politics. This is no longer about policy, civility, decency or even temperament. This is a direct threat of violence against a political rival."

This and more from Dan Rather.
posted by chris24 at 4:33 PM on August 9, 2016 [66 favorites]


Love that half of the response to the Jenna Johnson tweet is "YOU LIE TRUMP HAS THE BIGLYEST CROWDZ" and like the third or fourth one down actually refers to Clinton as a "lesbo." JFC.
posted by aspersioncast at 4:34 PM on August 9, 2016


Predicted spin from GOP "Leadership": What Trump said was awful. But please vote for him, because eliminating the estate-tax that affects the richest .5% of Americans is more important than having a President who doesn't openly threaten opponents with assassination.
posted by Cookiebastard at 4:35 PM on August 9, 2016 [25 favorites]


According to L. Brooks Patterson, an odious racist toad, suburban sprawl advocate, and Oakland County Commissioner,

Not just a commissioner, he's been co. exec. for about 49 years. And ugh Denise Ilitch quoted there too- how I'm coming to loathe that family.
posted by NorthernLite at 4:35 PM on August 9, 2016 [1 favorite]


> Love that half of the response to the Jenna Johnson tweet is "YOU LIE TRUMP HAS THE BIGLYEST CROWDZ" and like the third or fourth one down actually refers to Clinton as a "lesbo." JFC.

I scrolled down as far as "You wouldn't know a steady stream if it hit you in the face." Classy bunch. The classiest!
posted by The Card Cheat at 4:37 PM on August 9, 2016


so, this new donald trump reality show - when is this episode going to be over?

don't we even get a commercial break once in a while?

WHO IS THIS HORRIBLE ORANGE MAN ON MY TV SET AND WHY WON'T HE STOP SAYING STUPID THINGS?
posted by pyramid termite at 4:38 PM on August 9, 2016 [15 favorites]


btw has Evan McMullin given a statement on Trump's 2nd amendment remarks yet

Who?
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 4:42 PM on August 9, 2016 [10 favorites]


Classy bunch. The classiest!

has anyone noticed that on public comment boards that certain local stories are attracting a shitload of unpleasant conservative hatefest comments? - many more than one would expect given the significance of the news story and the audience that a local story should get?

furthermore, they all seem to be somewhat coordinated in theme and outlook

are those local media sites that still allow comments being astroturfed by some political organization? - i'm really starting to wonder about that
posted by pyramid termite at 4:44 PM on August 9, 2016 [6 favorites]


What the hell does Egg McMuffin have to do with anything??
posted by Cookiebastard at 4:45 PM on August 9, 2016 [2 favorites]


> WHO IS THIS HORRIBLE ORANGE MAN ON MY TV SET?

Agent Orange
posted by guiseroom at 4:45 PM on August 9, 2016 [2 favorites]


(Not to derail, but back to Michigan politics, I was confused by the Ilitch quotes re Arab Americans. I guess she's a Dem, so she's a good Ilitch. ;))
posted by NorthernLite at 4:46 PM on August 9, 2016


In all the talk of assassinating his opponent during the Wilmington speech, I somehow missed the great IQ Showdown.

From Time's full Transcript of the Wilmington speech (or as Time calls it, "The Second Amendment Speech"):
I mean, we have great people. We have the most loyal people. We have the smartest people. You know, so many of my people, they’re so smart. They like to say, well, Trump, I don’t know if he’s got this right — let me tell you, we have the smartest people. We have the people that are the smartest, and the strongest, and the best and the hardest working.

(APPLAUSE)

We have the smartest people. We’ll put I.Q.s among — some of us, we couldn’t say all of us, right — against any I.Q.s that we — we have to deal with, that I can tell you. I would love to do that.
Who is willing to take on Katrina Pierson?
posted by Secret Life of Gravy at 4:46 PM on August 9, 2016 [1 favorite]


Are any US residents here considering emigrating, by whatever means necessary, if Trump is elected?

I've been trying to think of ways, if the day comes, to help out fellow Americans leave and come to Canada. This might seem ridiculous at this point, but, without wanting to implicate Godwin's law in any way, what if Trump does come to power and leaving becomes necessary? What if unthinkable violence becomes the norm?

The latest Second Amendment comment scared me more than anything that he has recently said, and I've been following this way too closely for way too long.
posted by vert canard at 4:46 PM on August 9, 2016 [1 favorite]


Who is willing to take on Katrina Pierson?

My four-year-old.
posted by kirkaracha at 4:47 PM on August 9, 2016 [11 favorites]


Susan Collins on Trump: "He was suggesting that 2nd Amendment advocates around the country might come together to pressure the Senate."

Bold Maverick Susan Collins is still carrying water for Trump, who she supposedly disavowed, what, 12 hours ago?
posted by T.D. Strange at 4:49 PM on August 9, 2016 [16 favorites]




My money's on the four year old.
posted by InsertNiftyNameHere at 4:51 PM on August 9, 2016 [1 favorite]


So as of 7:44 PM EST if you type "Trump" into google and click on the news tab, these are the sort of headlines you get on the first page:

Trump's Assassination Dog Whistle Was Even Scarier Than...
Trump's economic plan was a huge mistake
Donald Trump's worst-of-both-worlds campaign
What plan?
The Trump campaign's absurdity, in one nonsensical statement
How Trump's poll decline could lead to a self-perpetuating death spiral for his campaign
With only 90 days until the election, Trump's steady decline in the polls means he needs a miracle to win
Is it over? Donald Trump's Republican abandonment issues spread across party
The Trump Panic
Trump would be 'dangerous' president, Republican security officials say
posted by The Card Cheat at 4:51 PM on August 9, 2016 [4 favorites]


> "Are any US residents here considering emigrating, by whatever means necessary, if Trump is elected?"

Not "considering". My spouse and I have a plan in place and ready to go should it come to that. We're extremely fortunate in that our situation allows for that, though.
posted by kyrademon at 4:51 PM on August 9, 2016 [1 favorite]


Clinton campaign email:

Donald Trump said this at a rally in North Carolina today:

"If she gets to pick her judges, [there's] nothing you can do folks. Although, the Second Amendment people, maybe there is. I don’t know."

This is not normal or acceptable talk from a presidential candidate.

But when decent people stay silent at moments like this, we let it become normal.

We all need to stand up right now and show that we don't tolerate this kind of politics in America -- before future candidates get the impression that they would benefit from running this kind of campaign.
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 4:52 PM on August 9, 2016 [15 favorites]


So as of 7:44 PM EST if you type "Trump" into google and click on the news tab, these are the sort of headlines

too bad trump supporters are completely impervious to media
posted by murphy slaw at 4:53 PM on August 9, 2016 [1 favorite]


Are any US residents here considering emigrating, by whatever means necessary, if Trump is elected?

Given his itchy nuclear trigger finger and potentially disastrous economic plans, I don't think it will help. What happens is going to happen everywhere, one way or the other. I.e., we either all have a global economic collapse together, or destruction is mutually assured, but it's not good either way.
posted by Blue Jello Elf at 4:53 PM on August 9, 2016 [5 favorites]


anyway, i'm not worried about trump winning anymore, i'm worried about what happens when he loses
posted by murphy slaw at 4:54 PM on August 9, 2016 [36 favorites]


Are any US residents here considering emigrating, by whatever means necessary, if Trump is elected?

Sort of. My wife and I are about 50/50 split on moving out of the US and back to her country. Long list of pro/cons, many unrelated to politics. If Trump is elected, it would be a huge number of points on the "pro moving" side, and I suspect might tip the balance. (Already, just this year and Trump's nomination and all the people who are willing to support him are points in the "pro moving" side). But I don't think I would move _just_ because Trump was elected if that was the only factor (and possibly not if I didn't have such an obvious and easy place to move to).
posted by thefoxgod at 4:55 PM on August 9, 2016


> too bad trump supporters are completely impervious to media

True, but he needs to gain supporters between now and November and these are not the headlines of a campaign that is on its way to doing so.
posted by The Card Cheat at 4:56 PM on August 9, 2016 [2 favorites]


i'm worried about what happens when he loses

That, and what happens next time around when somebody refines his basic approach and appeal but manages not to fuck up the operational part so badly.
posted by contraption at 4:56 PM on August 9, 2016 [24 favorites]


Given his itchy nuclear trigger finger and potentially disastrous economic plans, I don't think it will help.

At least in my case, it's less about avoiding disaster (economic disaster overseas might be less, but still there as you say) and more about getting the fuck out of the US, which has gotten dramatically worse in terms of public discourse and behavior in the past couple years. It includes stuff like police violence, gun nut craziness, etc beyond just Trump himself, although I think all of these things are related. I'm sick of it here, really, even if Clinton does win; but it would be even harder to take if Trump won.
posted by thefoxgod at 4:57 PM on August 9, 2016 [4 favorites]


If Trump wins, I'm staying and fighting. I could not leave my fellow Americans behind when they will get the worst of it.
posted by J.K. Seazer at 4:57 PM on August 9, 2016 [64 favorites]


I can see now that I was prematurely slightly concerned when Trump went a whole 24 hours without making me think, damn! Somehow he has said something even more ridiculous/frightening as hell than I had even considered he could!
posted by thebrokedown at 4:58 PM on August 9, 2016


So, how's the re-re-re-reboot going?
posted by kirkaracha at 5:01 PM on August 9, 2016 [2 favorites]


> That, and what happens next time around when somebody refines his basic approach and appeal but manages not to fuck up the operational part so badly.

The hardest part is copying the celebrity cult of personality aspect he built up over the past few decades. Without that you're just another crazy tea party type.
posted by The Card Cheat at 5:01 PM on August 9, 2016 [8 favorites]


My dad is convinced of the conspiracy theory that Trump is Clinton plant and is throwing the election. He becomes more convinced by the day.
What is a good argument against this or is it foolish to even attempt to argue with conspiracy theories?
posted by Waiting for Pierce Inverarity at 5:01 PM on August 9, 2016 [2 favorites]


If Trump wins, I'm staying and fighting.

Well, it's also quite possible to leave and fight. I'd rather not fund Trump's insanity (thanks to tax treaties, even though I'd be liable for US tax very little of it would go to the US). I can still contribute, vote, talk to people, etc from overseas. None of that changes.
posted by thefoxgod at 5:02 PM on August 9, 2016


My money's on the four year old.

She's pretty fucking smart!
/dadbrag

posted by kirkaracha at 5:02 PM on August 9, 2016 [5 favorites]


She IS fighting below her weight, tho
posted by thebrokedown at 5:03 PM on August 9, 2016 [6 favorites]


My dad is convinced of the conspiracy theory that Trump is Clinton plant and is throwing the election. He becomes more convinced by the day.
What is a good argument against this or is it foolish to even attempt to argue with conspiracy theories?


Even if Clinton planned it, Trump is only slightly turning up exactly what he was doing in the primaries. The Republican Party voted for him.
posted by Francis at 5:04 PM on August 9, 2016 [4 favorites]


Charles Pierce: The Moment You Realize Trump Finally Crossed the Line:
Is that The Line?

You know, The Line, the one that He, Trump has to cross before the entire Republican Party, not to mention a good portion of the human race, finds him too revolting for their delicate stomachs? What say you, Paul Ryan? Is that the line? John McCain? Mitch McConnell? All you clowns in the tricorns and the Watering The Tree Of Liberty tank tops? What say you all? Do you stand by this?

How about the elite political press? Is this enough to push you over the line to admitting every day in your coverage that this is not a normal election because the Republican Party has nominated a public sociopath for President of the United States?
posted by palindromic at 5:05 PM on August 9, 2016 [32 favorites]


Trumpophasis: On What Cannot Be Said
This structure – where a speaker announces that they will not say something and then promptly goes own to say it – is a classic rhetorical device. The Greeks called it paraleipsis (a setting-aside), the Romans, praeteritio (a going-beyond). The feint of passing over something as unworthy of attention actually flags and underscores it, even as the speaker preserves the pretense of discretion and the position of taking the moral high road. Sly transgression is garbed in the appearance of probity; finger-pointing mixes with handwashing. Modern TV audiences may associate paralipsis with courtroom dramas, something right out of Law & Order (Prosecutor: “Without mentioning the Defendant’s previous affairs –” Defense Lawyer: “Objection!” Judge: “Sustained! The Jury is instructed to disregard that statement! McCoy, one more time, and you’re in contempt!”). The association of paralipsis with courtroom drama is accurate – its forensic pedigree is ancient.
posted by the man of twists and turns at 5:06 PM on August 9, 2016 [21 favorites]


If Trump wins, I'm staying. I have a nasty sense in that case, there would be a need for a Second Underground Railroad, and we will be pretty prepared as a stop. My husband and I have already had the bizarre "do we hide Muslims" (answer: yes) conversation that we never thought would be a real conversation.
posted by corb at 5:08 PM on August 9, 2016 [65 favorites]


If Paul Ryan and Reince Priebus want an excuse to bail out of the clown car before it flies over the cliff and explodes, this would be a good one.
posted by EarBucket at 5:08 PM on August 9, 2016 [18 favorites]


My dad is convinced of the conspiracy theory that Trump is Clinton plant and is throwing the election. He becomes more convinced by the day.
What is a good argument against this or is it foolish to even attempt to argue with conspiracy theories?

Even if Clinton planned it, Trump is only slightly turning up exactly what he was doing in the primaries. The Republican Party voted for him.


This idea made more sense in the primaries when Trump was just wrecking shit but nobody thought he would win. Mostly because it seemed like it would just raise his profile even more and inflate the Trump brand some more. But now he's damaging his brand, and when he loses (which surely by god he will) he'll be a loser not a fake-billionaire winner. Why would he sign up to be a loser?
posted by dis_integration at 5:08 PM on August 9, 2016 [2 favorites]


I can't bring myself to leave the United States. Not just that it's my home, but as a US citizen, I have to take responsibility for what my government does. That's what democracy means. If I have the vote, I have at least nominal symbolic power, I have this responsibility.

So instead of plans for leaving, I have this 2-am-can't-sleep nightmare plan for if there are ever actually death camps.

But I think people overestimate the propensity for real violence. From what I've seen, Trump supporters are just ... they're the type of people who yell a lot but will back down from a real fight. Like Trump. Just in general, there's a strong social taboo against actual fist-to-face violence, especially with these middle-class people. They're socialized to keep their hands clean. And they're just too lazy to actually riot or form a militia that does something real.

All the violent incidents in the past year have been done by people working alone, or cops. The isolated militants don't scale up.

(nota bene that the immigrant detention centers look and smell kinda like death camps and I don't know what to do about that)
posted by Rainbo Vagrant at 5:09 PM on August 9, 2016 [11 favorites]


What is a good argument against this or is it foolish to even attempt to argue with conspiracy theories?

Well, does he want Trump or Clinton to win? Don't try to argue him out of it if Trump; and if Clinton, then roll your eyes and ... don't bother trying to argue him out it.
posted by octobersurprise at 5:09 PM on August 9, 2016 [2 favorites]


"The ballot or the bullet? What's the difference?" -- Donald Trump [fake]
posted by kirkaracha at 5:09 PM on August 9, 2016


My dad is convinced of the conspiracy theory that Trump is Clinton plant and is throwing the election. He becomes more convinced by the day.
What is a good argument against this or is it foolish to even attempt to argue with conspiracy theories?


Even if Clinton planned it, Trump is only slightly turning up exactly what he was doing in the primaries. The Republican Party voted for him.

This idea made more sense in the primaries when Trump was just wrecking shit but nobody thought he would win. Mostly because it seemed like it would just raise his profile even more and inflate the Trump brand some more. But now he's damaging his brand, and when he loses (which surely by god he will) he'll be a loser not a fake-billionaire winner. Why would he sign up to be a loser?

If Clinton planned this she’s playing the game at Vetinari levels and we can only hope she will be an excellent enlightened despot.
posted by Going To Maine at 5:10 PM on August 9, 2016 [33 favorites]


My dad is convinced of the conspiracy theory that Trump is Clinton plant and is throwing the election. He becomes more convinced by the day.
What is a good argument against this or is it foolish to even attempt to argue with conspiracy theories?


"So you're saying the Republican base was so simple, so easy to read and manipulate, that Clinton could pick a candidate and a message that would break through an incredibly crowded field, gain a rabid following, and take over the whole party? All this from months in advance? That sounds really sad, Dad."
posted by PlusDistance at 5:12 PM on August 9, 2016 [23 favorites]


If Trump wins, I'm staying.

girl you know we're both getting deported
posted by poffin boffin at 5:12 PM on August 9, 2016 [22 favorites]


I realized something this week - save for the age requirement, I honestly think that I, personally, would be a better president than Donald Trump. I'm not sure that could be said of any other major party nominee ever.
posted by showbiz_liz at 5:13 PM on August 9, 2016 [63 favorites]


My dad is convinced of the conspiracy theory that Trump is Clinton plant and is throwing the election. He becomes more convinced by the day.
What is a good argument against this or is it foolish to even attempt to argue with conspiracy theories?


Occam's razor. What is more likely? The Clinton campaign decided planting a fake candidate was worth the risk of this information being discovered (which would surely ruin the campaign) considering there was no guarantee Trump would even get any traction in the primaries. Trump went along with this despite the damage to his reputation if found out? Or, perhaps he is just a terrible candidate who got propelled further than he should be because primary voters tend to be more hardcore.
posted by Mayhembob at 5:14 PM on August 9, 2016 [2 favorites]


Re: Chinese Wall.

In The Art of Not Being Governed James Scott said the purpose of the wall was to keep peasants in, not invaders out.
posted by bukvich at 5:14 PM on August 9, 2016 [2 favorites]


I realized something this week - save for the age requirement, I honestly think that I, personally, would be a better president than Donald Trump. I'm not sure that could be said of any other major party nominee ever.

Man, yeah. I hadn't thought of it like that, but me too. And I'm lazy as hell.
posted by rifflesby at 5:15 PM on August 9, 2016 [7 favorites]


So, how's the re-re-re-reboot going?

Not so good. The health inspector accused us of serving human flesh.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 5:15 PM on August 9, 2016 [9 favorites]


> My dad is convinced of the conspiracy theory that Trump is Clinton plant and is throwing the election. He becomes more convinced by the day.
What is a good argument against this or is it foolish to even attempt to argue with conspiracy theories?


It's foolish to argue, and I don't think there's a good argument against it. Lately I'm feeling like there's maybe a 15% chance it's correct.

> But now he's damaging his brand, and when he loses (which surely by god he will) he'll be a loser not a fake-billionaire winner. Why would he sign up to be a loser?

He's got a much longer list of potential suckers now than he did before, and wider visibility. At least, he has a longer list if his team has been even remotely competent at saving e-mail addresses. Which I suppose we can't take as a given.

There's also the factor that even if he doesn't win the election, Trump's narcissism will find a way for him to see himself as a victor. So there's no actual risk to his ego.
posted by Spathe Cadet at 5:15 PM on August 9, 2016


No fewer than three times in the last five minutes I have copy-pasted, mentally written a reply and then scrolled down to find that someone has already written word-for-word the comment I was going to post when I got to the end of the thread.

I am one with the hive mind now

subsumed into the vastness of blue
posted by tivalasvegas at 5:16 PM on August 9, 2016 [55 favorites]


All the violent incidents in the past year have been done by people working alone, or cops. The isolated militants don't scale up.

There is, thankfully, not the sort of nationalist structure available to build a fascist state on -- the most ardent of Trump supporters are the sort of people we made fun of at Malheur -- but that doesn't mean a proto-fascist like Trump can't do damage, and inspire violence.
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 5:16 PM on August 9, 2016 [1 favorite]


If Trump wins, I'm gonna need to avail myself of your Second Underground Railroad services, or in the alternative, find someone Canadian or European or whatever to marry me, because I am definitely headed to the camps, or deported off to Afghanistan I guess (I WASN'T EVEN BORN THERE). I definitely already had the deeply distressing realization that I would not pass a REAL AMERICAN purity test, despite not being religious, despite having only stepped foot in a mosque once in the last 10 years.

So yeah, I've thought about it. My family has thought about it. We had to flee one country, I cannot begin to tell you how dispiriting it is to contemplate doing it again.
posted by yasaman at 5:19 PM on August 9, 2016 [19 favorites]


There is, thankfully, not the sort of nationalist structure available to build a fascist state on -- the most ardent of Trump supporters are the sort of people we made fun of at Malheur -- but that doesn't mean a proto-fascist like Trump can't do damage, and inspire violence.

We can quibble about terminology, and of course the US is not Germany and 2016 is not 1933.

History won't repeat itself. But its rhyme is equally terrifying.
posted by tivalasvegas at 5:20 PM on August 9, 2016 [5 favorites]


Inside Clinton's GOP recruitment plan:
The unprecedented desertion of the GOP nominee by leading members of his own party — and their embrace of Hillary Clinton — is partly organic, but for the most part it’s being midwifed by the Clinton campaign, which is beginning to reap the rewards of a behind-the-scenes recruitment effort that’s been months in the making.
posted by kirkaracha at 5:21 PM on August 9, 2016 [7 favorites]


I was saving this for if he actually won, but since y'all brought it up:

Attention Canadian Women: Reasonably fit fortysomething liberal male American refugee seeks marriage of convenience or.... I cook, make excellent coffee, and have over 28k favorites on MetaFilter. MeMail for further info.
posted by entropicamericana at 5:23 PM on August 9, 2016 [18 favorites]


Hillarious Clinton just now on Twitter: "Our kids are watching, Donald."

Also: new ad
posted by guiseroom at 5:24 PM on August 9, 2016 [14 favorites]


Yea sorry, this isn't the time for fucking Team of Rivals. She has the opportunity for a wave election, and she's choosing to court Meg Whitman and Henry Kissinger.

How about supporting your down ballot candidates, who you fucking need to get anything done?
posted by T.D. Strange at 5:24 PM on August 9, 2016 [9 favorites]


I have stepped foot in more mosques in the past ten years than yasaman has, and I'm a late middle-aged white athiest.
None of us will be safe.
posted by Floydd at 5:27 PM on August 9, 2016 [1 favorite]


re: leaving the US, allow me to paraphrase the tick and say "Egad, I hope not. That's where I keep all my stuff!"
posted by murphy slaw at 5:27 PM on August 9, 2016 [7 favorites]


I don't have immediate plans to emigrate if Trump wins.

But I do have friends and aquaintances in Ireland and Canada, and an association with someone in France, and should Trump win I may start ramping up contact with them and having somewhat serious conversations about certain things "just in case".
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 5:27 PM on August 9, 2016


If Paul Ryan and Reince Priebus want an excuse to bail out of the clown car before it flies over the cliff and explodes, this would be a good one.

Honestly, I expect Ryan to desperately duck, dodge, and avoid this issue until his primary is over. Then maybe he'll come out with a statement against it, or maybe even (we can hope) revoke his endorsement...but again, not until after his primary.
posted by scaryblackdeath at 5:28 PM on August 9, 2016


No plans (or resources) to leave the country, but in the event that they arrive to take me to the camps, I intend to beg them to hold off for five minutes so I have time to call my Dad and say "I FUCKING TOLD YOU."
posted by Spathe Cadet at 5:31 PM on August 9, 2016 [40 favorites]


My dad is convinced of the conspiracy theory that Trump is Clinton plant and is throwing the election. He becomes more convinced by the day.

What is a good argument against this or is it foolish to even attempt to argue with conspiracy theories?


I genuinely believe that Trump had no expectation that he would win the primary, then after a point there was no way out of the nomination that would a) allow him to save face (eg, blame it on the RNC for rigging the primary) and b) not blow up the Republican Party (eg, why the RNC did not try to force him out or entertain the appeals the Free the Delegates/Never Trump party members).

The primary was great for him: he got a bunch of free media exposure, an updated list of gulls for future conning, and he got to look all dominant over a bunch of people with access to real political power. I think his ideal scenario was to get in an early win or two, then claim some sort of RNC malfeasance when a Rubio or Bush started to pull ahead, then bow out. That did not happen.

Given the nature of his celebrity, there was no ego-salving way to say to his voters that actually he didn't want this job after all or that he lost or whatever. He was like an evil win shark, that had to keep evilly winning to live. He is now sharking it up so evil in front of everyone and it is not working, and people are not coming to his casinos or licensing his shitty condos or respecting his line of steaks.

He plans to keep this 'I'm a winner!' charade running until well after Clinton is sworn in as POTUS 45, with talk of rigged elections and stolen votes. Once that lost its lustre, I would not be surprised if he budded off as a third party candidate for the next few cycles.

I believe in the effectiveness of Trump's Razor: "Ascertain the stupidest possible scenario that can be reconciled with the available facts."

The stupidest scenario, to me, is one where he treated his campaign as a means to transform free campaign publicity into those wingnutdollars, and it spiraled out of his control, and he can't betray any loss of dominance or he will lose the only way to recoup sunk costs. Any other scenario would have him make secret plans and quietly execute them, which cannot be reconciled with the available facts.
posted by palindromic at 5:31 PM on August 9, 2016 [31 favorites]


How about supporting your down ballot candidates, who you fucking need to get anything done?

Is she not doing this?
posted by Going To Maine at 5:32 PM on August 9, 2016 [31 favorites]


Yea sorry, this isn't the time for fucking Team of Rivals. She has the opportunity for a wave election, and she's choosing to court Meg Whitman and Henry Kissinger.

How do you get a wave election if you don't get voters from the other party? It's either them or non-voters, and the thing about non-voters is that they don't vote.
posted by chrchr at 5:35 PM on August 9, 2016 [54 favorites]


I've been upset about all of this for months and refreshing this thread every 2 minutes, but after the speech today, I keep thinking how insane it is that we all have to spend money (donate) and put forth effort (volunteer) to keep such a piece of shit out of power. That seems so ridiculous to me. It makes sense that he should have to spend a ton of money to obtain power. But it doesn't make any sense that me, and millions of of others, have to spend money to keep him from gaining power. He just threatened his rival candidate, and now I have to send her money so that he doesn't become president.
posted by monkeystronghold at 5:36 PM on August 9, 2016 [27 favorites]


She has the opportunity for a wave election, and she's choosing to court Meg Whitman and Henry Kissinger.

Although I agree Kissinger is a bridge too far, getting people like Whitman saying "vote Hillary" is actually really important. In order to get anything actually done, Hillary needs both the House and Senate. She has an okay chance at the Senate at best, and a miniscule chance at the House.

Going after the Whitmans and actively getting them on board matters. It matters because a lot of those downballot races are no-hopers even if GOP turnout is depressed and Dem turnout heightened; to flip the house, Hillary basically needs Republicans to switch sides, not just stay home or vote for her instead of Trump but otherwise check R in every column. The Whitmans of the world actively campaigning for Hillary normalize voting Democrat for people who otherwise won't. That's why she's going after them now. It doesn't matter what Meg Whitman actually wants the day after election day, because Meg Whitman isn't running for anything. The Dem candidates in districts where Meg Whitman might stump, on the other hand, are.

And even then, if Hillary gets the House and Senate, she's got a safe threshold of two years to get a decade's worth of governance done, because there's a likelihood she loses one or both in 2018. She needs to address all the operating problems with Obamacare, she needs to get a real climate change plan passed, she needs to get a real infrastructure plan passed, nominate three to four Supreme Court justices, all of it. There's an insane amount of work to get done in a very short window of time, and Hillary knows that in advance.

Remember: you might not agree with her on everything, but she's insanely smart and although she's too hawkish for most of us here on the blue, her domestic policies trend left in all the proper ways, and she needs Congress for that. I trust her to get that done.
posted by mightygodking at 5:38 PM on August 9, 2016 [72 favorites]


You know who is gonna vote for Donald Trump, besides all this? My parents, two retired people who live in a middle-class New York neighborhood. They are going to vote for a man who is the opposite of everything they taught me about what makes a decent human being.

Why? Because he said he would appoint judges to overturn Roe v Wade. No other potential tragedies of a Trump presidency, not the abuse of minorities, not bankrupting the nation, not getting Twitter-baited into thermonuclear war, outweigh that in their values calculus.

Even if he melts down in an orange puddle of hate before the election, they wouldn't vote for Hillary. The GOP and Fox News, led by men whose known sexual misdeeds make an intern BJ seem kinda quaint, have thoroughly convinced my parents that HRC has done terrible things that they can't quite explain.

Hinting that his 2nd Amendment friends should rid us of this troublesome woman? "Come on, he was just saying what's everyone's minds. He just has the balls to say it."

I want HRC and all she commands put pedal to the metal for 90 days and never let up, not one day. I want her so far ahead that if another psychotic shitheel decides to paint his name in AR-15 bullets or some terrorist attack freaks everybody out, it won't matter. If Julian Assange really does have something interesting, it won't be enough to matter.

I want my parents, and everyone like them, to know that they are nor America, not any more.
posted by sacre_bleu at 5:40 PM on August 9, 2016 [118 favorites]


I intend to beg them to hold off for five minutes so I have time to call my Dad and say "I FUCKING TOLD YOU."

One of the more horrifying use cases for dead man's switch email services.
posted by tivalasvegas at 5:41 PM on August 9, 2016 [8 favorites]


If I'm, say, a Republican house member in one of the top 10% closest districts, and Clinton rides in on a wave, I have two options: I can stay the course and keep being obstructionist, even though that is clearly looking like an unpopular strategy in the long run, or I can consider crossing the aisle to work with the president who, instead of dunking on my entire party when it would have been totally justified, said "hey guys. Aren't you tired of this? Wouldn't it be nice to actually work together and pass some legislation? Maybe something we can all more or less agree on, like a nice juicy jobs bill that would employ people in your district?"

Listen I can dream ok
posted by showbiz_liz at 5:41 PM on August 9, 2016 [16 favorites]


You can get waves various ways.

a) appeal to untapped voters - everything already suggests that Clinton is doing a ton of outreach to new voters
b) reach across the aisle and get converts - this is already going on and let's be honest Clinton is not backing down on her platform.

This isn't pivoting to the middle this is giving a life line to various conservatives that might be going that Trump is not what they signed up for.

Considering passing Clinton's platform requires recapturing the senate and house and many of those seats are in Republican leaning districts I see absolutely no harm in trying to convert Republicans.
posted by vuron at 5:41 PM on August 9, 2016 [14 favorites]


the crowd didn't even fill the pretty small venue it was in.

They knew that he'd done his Day's Crazy at the earlier rally, and wouldn't get to see it in person. Sad!
posted by holgate at 5:46 PM on August 9, 2016 [5 favorites]


If I'm, say, a Republican house member in one of the top 10% closest districts, and Clinton rides in on a wave, I have two options:

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhaaaaaaa, oh, I can't breathe. Have you met Mitch McConnell?

They're still going to be far more terrified of primaries, and Trump's rank incompetance gives them a very easy out, they can blame him personally for all of the fail, and keep on pursuing the same policies as always because hey, he still only lost by 8 and we still held the House (or whatever is the outcome). There is absolutely zero chance of a return to anything approaching normal governance now, Republicans have been radicalized.
posted by T.D. Strange at 5:47 PM on August 9, 2016 [8 favorites]


Yeah, as the article described it:

“They’re hardly recruiting Republicans,” said Democratic consultant Karen Skelton, who has been helping the Clinton campaign with outreach to Republicans in California. “They have their baseball mitt out and they’re catching balls.”

There are Republicans out there who really want to ditch Trump, either because they're just decent people or because they believe he is bad for them politically in their own district (or both!). It sounds like the Clinton campaign is doing a low-key thing to basically say "Hey, it's OK, you don't _have_ to support him if you don't want to, we're here for you" and encouraging them to publicly dump Trump / support Clinton. That seems like common sense politics, to me.

I don't see any indication that Clinton is radically changing her policies to attract Republicans, which I could understand people being upset about. Thanks to Trump, she doesn't really have to do that to attract some minor GOP support, since at least some of them either don't want Trump to be President or just don't want to be associated with Trump.
posted by thefoxgod at 5:47 PM on August 9, 2016 [32 favorites]


But it doesn't make any sense that me, and millions of of others, have to spend money to keep him from gaining power.

The 2000 and 2004 elections were tough on me, having the non-fuckstick candidate lose by just ~600 votes in FL and then 100,000 in OH.

2006 was a hopeful change that maybe the electorate was seeing the error in their ways, but then 2010 and then 2014 hit us.

We've got the 27% crazification factor, but on top of that ~40% of the population are apparently easily bamboozled and/or gaslighted (I get the 40% from this, 72% support for the Iraq war in 2003 vs 32% in 2007).

Several years ago I came across J.S. Mill's quip in parliament saying "not all conservatives are stupid, but generally speaking all stupid people are conservative" and that hit too close to home.
posted by Heywood Mogroot III at 5:49 PM on August 9, 2016 [8 favorites]




Yea sorry, this isn't the time for fucking Team of Rivals. She has the opportunity for a wave election, and she's choosing to court Meg Whitman and Henry Kissinger.

How about supporting your down ballot candidates, who you fucking need to get anything done?


She's been supporting the down ballot for a long time. And if she wants to support the down ballot candidates then one of the best things she can do is flip Republican voters. Meg Whitman is an excellent choice to try to bring tens of thousands of Republicans over in a year Democratic turnout should be a trump card (Kissenger not so much - an evil genius is still evil).

In short this is going for a wave election. And she won't get one without courting people like Meg Whitman.
posted by Francis at 5:52 PM on August 9, 2016 [20 favorites]


Also keep in mind that Meg Whitman is incredibly wealthy and money isn't red or blue it's green and it spends equally well coming from a disaffected Republican or a loyal Democrat.
posted by vuron at 5:57 PM on August 9, 2016 [3 favorites]


Who will be the first reporter to ask Profiles in Courage Paul Ryan his thoughts on this?
posted by leotrotsky at 5:57 PM on August 9, 2016 [5 favorites]


how sad is it that after election day, which looks like it will be the biggest victory for leftist politics in decades, which will usher in the administration of the first woman chief executive in our history, which will be an utter repudiation of the politics of nihilism

my greatest hope is that i no longer wake up several times a night gripped by a feeling that something terrible has just happened, that i might get through a day without shaking with rage, that i might for a moment not feel battered by constant reminders that evil has no consequences and the bad guys always win

this year is just wrecking me
posted by murphy slaw at 6:00 PM on August 9, 2016 [17 favorites]


I'm pretty sure Paul Ryan is in a safe house somewhere trying on wigs and learning a foreign accent.
posted by chrchr at 6:06 PM on August 9, 2016 [12 favorites]


the most ardent of Trump supporters are the sort of people we made fun of at Malheur

Speaking of which, Jon Ritzenheimer (the "Daddy swore an oath"/angry dildo guy) plead guilty today. That makes him one of a half-dozen or so that have plead out so far this year. (Greasy Dave & the Bundy clan are still in for the long haul. Tho Ryan Bundy has struck upon the startlingly original strategy of declaring himself an idiot Unfrozen Caveman-stylee.)

re: leaving the US, allow me to paraphrase the tick and say "Egad, I hope not. That's where I keep all my stuff!"

to which I can only say "Hell, yes" and "Spoon!"
posted by octobersurprise at 6:11 PM on August 9, 2016 [5 favorites]


Robert Costa ‏@costareports 1m1 minute ago
Ryan isn't holding a rally. Instead, he bought volunteers cheese curds and beer. He'll hold a news conference after the race is called.

posted by waitingtoderail at 6:12 PM on August 9, 2016 [1 favorite]


Instead, he bought volunteers cheese curds and beer.

Never change Wisconsin, never change.
posted by nathan_teske at 6:13 PM on August 9, 2016 [13 favorites]


Yea sorry, this isn't the time for fucking Team of Rivals. She has the opportunity for a wave election, and she's choosing to court Meg Whitman and Henry Kissinger.

How about supporting your down ballot candidates, who you fucking need to get anything done?
posted by T.D. Strange at 8:24 PM on August 9 [3 favorites +] [!]


Oh, look, another specious uninformed reason to bash the female candidate. Let me get my applause meter.
posted by OmieWise at 6:13 PM on August 9, 2016 [25 favorites]


This guy is blogging the Wisconsin primary results. The polls just closed. You can also watch them here.
posted by guiseroom at 6:14 PM on August 9, 2016 [2 favorites]


My sister is trans, and had a conversation with her fiancée along these lines:

- If things get bad, we're going to fight, right?
- No, if things get bad, we're going to run away.

Because her fiancée's grandmother fled Germany as a child, and lived. That connection made it real -- my sister says: "now when I think about a Trump presidency, I think about getting on a boat with my family and burning my passport." Not as a first response, but as a real thing to be prepared for.

So yeah, people are considering it.

My sister is optimistic. She's hopeful that Trump loses hard, and that a lot of people will really reconsider what it is they've been supporting and how close they came to pushing us all over the cliff.

But she spends time in fear, too. If he had done nothing else wrong, I could never forgive Trump for that.
posted by john hadron collider at 6:21 PM on August 9, 2016 [60 favorites]


Hillary Clinton reaching right for allies is part of how she plays against Trump. I've said for months that this summer would see a lot of people convincing themselves that it really is okay to vote for Hillary or Trump after all- this is how Hillary makes sure that as many people as possible are saying "You know, I always vote Republican, but I guess she's not as bad as that Trump asshole".

I don't like it, especially since some of the people she's reaching out to (Kissinger in particular) are filth, but if that filth will vote to keep the violent fascist out of the White House I'm happy for the moment.
posted by Pope Guilty at 6:22 PM on August 9, 2016 [17 favorites]


For a long time, I've been sorta prepping for a move to Korea, in case I ever wanted to. You know, back where I'm really from or some shit.

The whole Trump thing? I'm kinda honestly glad that I'm reasonably prepared for it.

Mom can stay in the US though. She's voted for him.
posted by qcubed at 6:24 PM on August 9, 2016 [3 favorites]


HAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhaaaaaaa, oh, I can't breathe. Have you met Mitch McConnell?

I mean, do you really think this state of affairs is going to continue on indefinitely? There's absolutely no way the House gets even a little less entrenched? No scenario in which this visibly shaky coalition of weirdly non-compatible interests cracks just a tiny bit?
posted by showbiz_liz at 6:29 PM on August 9, 2016 [2 favorites]


I suppose I can check off the "Threaten to put a hit on someone" square on my Trump Bingo card.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 6:30 PM on August 9, 2016 [19 favorites]


Hinting that his 2nd Amendment friends should rid us of this troublesome woman? "Come on, he was just saying what's everyone's minds. He just has the balls to say it."

Certainly not the first time he tried to normalize violent rhetoric.
"I could stand in the middle of 5th Avenue and shoot somebody and I wouldn't lose any voters,"

-- Donald "I'll pay my debts in Bankruptcy Court" Trump

I'm interested in if there will be any reprecussions from the NRA's blatant electioneering. I mean, they shouldn't be using their 501(c)3 to be tweeting against Hillary Clinton.
posted by mikelieman at 6:31 PM on August 9, 2016 [7 favorites]


Well done, prescient bingo card person.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 6:32 PM on August 9, 2016 [4 favorites]


Ambulatory void Paul Ryan wins primary, per MSNBC
posted by prize bull octorok at 6:35 PM on August 9, 2016 [2 favorites]


Whoa! It looks like Ryan is squatting on top of Nehlen and making him smell his farts.
posted by octobersurprise at 6:38 PM on August 9, 2016 [3 favorites]


All righty Paul, anything to say now that you don't have to worry about getting Cantored?
posted by saturday_morning at 6:39 PM on August 9, 2016 [5 favorites]


Have I ever been excited for a Paul Ryan press conference before?
Has anyone?

posted by saturday_morning at 6:40 PM on August 9, 2016 [8 favorites]


I just got a glimpse of what Trump supporters are saying about this on Facebook and it's like the fucking Upside Down over there, complete with "this is what the second amendment is actually for" rallying cries. Holy shit.

I've been very removed from the actual Trumpian rhetoric (thank you, well curated friends list!) and I'm genuinely frightened by what I read.
posted by lydhre at 6:43 PM on August 9, 2016 [8 favorites]



Great job Ryan! Hope your bar is stocked up for your upcoming loss.
posted by Yowser at 6:44 PM on August 9, 2016


Wasn't the Ryan primary tracking much closer? Should we be worried about polling?
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 6:48 PM on August 9, 2016


Ryan with a 69 point lead. That little munster!
posted by octobersurprise at 6:50 PM on August 9, 2016 [3 favorites]


Wasn't the Ryan primary tracking much closer? Should we be worried about polling?

No.
posted by (Arsenio) Hall and (Warren) Oates at 6:50 PM on August 9, 2016


do you really think this state of affairs is going to continue on indefinitely? There's absolutely no way the House gets even a little less entrenched?

No. They've created an alternate reality where ever the tiniest concession to Democratic priorities is viewed as treason, and enforced by a rabid mob of the radical base ready to primary any elected official who shows the slightest inclination to work with Democrats. On top of that, they've also created an environment absolutely opposed to rational or evidence based argument, so no matter how far to the right the base moves, the "moderate" leaders have no authority or credibility to move the needle back towards the middle.

I don't know what changes that dynamic, but I suspect it's "nothing". They're too far gone. the Democrats need to win to maintain a functioning government, and need to hold on for as long as it takes for Republicans to either implode once and for all, or become demographically irrelevant. Because if Trump, Trumpism, or it's cheerleaders in the current Republican leadership comes into power, they will never relinquish it.
posted by T.D. Strange at 6:50 PM on August 9, 2016 [16 favorites]


There's absolutely no way the House gets even a little less entrenched? No scenario in which this visibly shaky coalition of weirdly non-compatible interests cracks just a tiny bit?

not as long as the GOP fears the primary more than the general.

2018 is an off-year election, you know how those go . . . apparently only the crazies vote for those.

The GOP strategy is to simply prevent things from getting better and then blaming the black guy.

For the past 6 years Congress has mainly focused on renaming post offices. That's not a joke, and the lost opportunity of what could have been done in the last 3/4 of Obama's presidency is beyond calculation, really.

One, example, we had 1 million more construction workers in 2007 than now. For $80B/yr we could have put them all to work, but we didn't.
posted by Heywood Mogroot III at 6:51 PM on August 9, 2016 [14 favorites]


Wasn't the Ryan primary tracking much closer? Should we be worried about polling?

66 point lead a few days ago. I wouldn't worry.
posted by waitingtoderail at 6:51 PM on August 9, 2016 [2 favorites]


Hinting that his 2nd Amendment friends should rid us of this troublesome woman? "Come on, he was just saying what's everyone's minds. He just has the balls to say it."

tell ur fuckin parents to meet me in the pit
posted by poffin boffin at 6:55 PM on August 9, 2016 [26 favorites]


Yeah, I'm about forty comments late, but I'm staying no matter what, and I'm starting a list of people I can call, text and PGP with if the unthinkable happens.

I can't think how it would happen, but I can't think how Donald Trump didn't get arrested today, either.
posted by Mooski at 7:00 PM on August 9, 2016 [4 favorites]


Yeah, count me in the Underground fucking Railroad 2016 or whatever if the unthinkable happebs. I've got wifi, spare beds, futons, and beer. Come on over.
posted by Existential Dread at 7:02 PM on August 9, 2016 [7 favorites]


I have dual citizenship with Canada in my back pocket, but no family there anymore and not enough liquid assets to realistically make a go of it (especially with my spouse being 100% American and having to go through what I assume are some lengthy processes before being able to work). And we just bought a house.
posted by soren_lorensen at 7:04 PM on August 9, 2016


If the unthinkable happens those assholes are going to find out what a real militia looks like.

(Which is to say, the National Guard.)
posted by snuffleupagus at 7:04 PM on August 9, 2016 [5 favorites]


Yea sorry, this isn't the time for fucking Team of Rivals. She has the opportunity for a wave election, and she's choosing to court Meg Whitman and Henry Kissinger.

Sorry to pile on, but you know what kind of politics I have no interest in and am completely sick of? Us against them. "We'll show them" "Smite my enemies" all that shit is tiresome. I like the kind where someone says "This train is moving forward and we're going to get shit done, anyone who wants on, get on". That seems to be Clinton plan, and I'm on board.

Since I seem to have an uncanny knack of being the statistically average person I've got to think a lot of other people are feeling the same way about now.
posted by bongo_x at 7:04 PM on August 9, 2016 [56 favorites]


Lawrence O'Donnell is saying now that the Secret Service tweet is the first time in history they have made a statement about a political candidate.
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 7:04 PM on August 9, 2016 [23 favorites]


My sister is optimistic. She's hopeful that Trump loses hard, and that a lot of people will really reconsider what it is they've been supporting and how close they came to pushing us all over the cliff.

I said it elsewhere on this, but it remains true: I want a memorial to all of the Trump voters. A memorial to complacency and to false equivocation and to putting party over country. Something that can remind everyone that this was an edge that people were really willing to go over, and that we should demand our politicians -if not each other- mean what they say and say what they mean.

My monument of choice also remains an enormous eggplant surrounded by eggs, but I’ll take something more somber and fitting as well.
posted by Going To Maine at 7:06 PM on August 9, 2016 [13 favorites]


Yeah, I'm honestly hoping Clinton sincerely means bipartisan governance with reasonable people, because there are a lot of us huddled over here weeping and we would kind of like to go back to just having different ideas and compromise without people hurling the word "traitor" around.
posted by corb at 7:10 PM on August 9, 2016 [38 favorites]


Her record suggests she means it. It's one of the reasons she has trouble with staunchly partisan progressives.
posted by snuffleupagus at 7:12 PM on August 9, 2016 [13 favorites]


a lot of people will really reconsider what it is they've been supporting and how close they came to pushing us all over the cliff

Anyone who was open to reconsidering has already reconsidered. The ones that are left will just double-down and make it so much easier to prune your Facebook. Losing real bad won't change anything because these people already think they are the most downtrodden victims to ever trod down. It'll just be another data point on their Wall of Crazy. What I would hope to see happen, though, is for everyone else to stop treating these people like they have legitimate things to say about governance. Stop giving them a national spotlight to spew their Alex Jones conspiracy theory batshittery as if it's equivalent to a press release from the Brookings Institution.
posted by soren_lorensen at 7:14 PM on August 9, 2016 [7 favorites]


Sorry to pile on, but you know what kind of politics I have no interest in and am completely sick of? Us against them. "We'll show them" "Smite my enemies" all that shit is tiresome. I like the kind where someone says "This train is moving forward and we're going to get shit done, anyone who wants on, get on". That seems to be Clinton plan, and I'm on board.

The worst thing about truly crushing Trumpism as is deserved is that it will become like racism - not something that anyone “is”, but a behavior that folks manifest - “that sounds really trumpy”, etc. I mean, heck, white nationalists accuse their opponents of being racist, and talk about their celebration of European heritage. On the plus side, unlike with many racist things, there’s going to be a really easy, bright line to identify Trumpists in our own time: if they vote for or endorse the man. But hell, I’d rather we all get together to smash something truly awful than grouse about the worst of our allies. Trump is the White Walkers, and Kissinger is, I guess, Cersei.
posted by Going To Maine at 7:15 PM on August 9, 2016 [3 favorites]


Man, Don Lemon and the Republican guy defending Trump's comments are tearing into eachother. In very personal fashion. Did Don Lemon finally find some testicular fortitude?
posted by Justinian at 7:17 PM on August 9, 2016


That doesn't look like Calvin peeing.
posted by JJ86 at 7:18 PM on August 9, 2016 [1 favorite]


Anyone who was open to reconsidering has already reconsidered.

Most people haven't given serious thought to the election yet. Because it's three months out and they have more pressing concerns. Sept./Oct. is when they'll start caring.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 7:20 PM on August 9, 2016 [5 favorites]


People accuse Hillary Clinton of changing her position based on what the voters want - but that's completely misunderstanding her ideals because changing to suit the voters is a part of her ideals. Her fundamental belief, so far as I can tell, is quite simply that the government should be there to support, help, and make things better for all the people in the United States. This means she's about listening to them rather than being precious about her ideas.

She really really dislikes the Republican Party as an institution and I think thinks that Donald Trump is the candidate the institution deserves. But she has always been very good at reaching across the aisle to individuals who are willing to work for the good of the people. I think both Corb and a lot of progressives are going to get some very nice surprises from her if (or hopefully when) she becomes President.
posted by Francis at 7:20 PM on August 9, 2016 [49 favorites]


Kissinger is, I guess, Cersei.

Surely Qyburn.

Although he sounds more like Pycelle.
posted by snuffleupagus at 7:20 PM on August 9, 2016 [1 favorite]


Most people haven’t given serious thought to the election yet. Because it's three months out and they have more pressing concerns. Sept./Oct. is when they'll start caring.

As long as enough people have taken an interest for 538’s estimates to be on the mark, I feel good.
posted by Going To Maine at 7:22 PM on August 9, 2016


On emigrating if Trump wins: I have a Facebook friend (an old high school classmate) who moved from the Philippines to the US with her family when she was young. She says that she and some of her Filipino friends are making plans to return to the Philippines if Trump wins.

It is appalling that people should even have to consider such things. She grew up here. She has built a life and raised a family here. This is her country. She should not have to fear her neighbors and her own fucking government simply because she is not white.

In one of these threads, someone argued that this year-long national dumpster fire may ultimately be a good thing – for having laid bare the long-simmering racist ugliness underneath the surface of American society (and the lengths to which the GOP will go to make apologies for it). I hope that's true. I hope some nut doesn't accept Trump's invitation to turn this cold war hot. I hope that the GOP, and the country at large, is able to learn the right lessons from all of this. I really hope we can figure out what to do with this mass of fellow Americans who are willing to vote for a fascist loon – because our democracy won't be safe until we do.

I hope that 2016 is the worst American year that I witness, because I don't want to know what's worse than this.
posted by escape from the potato planet at 7:24 PM on August 9, 2016 [16 favorites]


Lawrence O'Donnell is saying now that the Secret Service tweet is the first time in history they have made a statement about a political candidate.

And now he has a Russian Trump advisor named "Boris" declaring that Trump, no how no way has crossed any lines. Nope, Trump isn't indebted to Putin and besides, Mrs. Trump is gonna have a press conference soon and clear up all this immigration stuff.

They're shitting me, aren't they?
posted by octobersurprise at 7:25 PM on August 9, 2016 [2 favorites]


"Boris" is a classic upper-class English name, though. I mean, look at Boris Johnson Trump.
posted by qcubed at 7:27 PM on August 9, 2016


Epshteyn is from Russia.
posted by Yowser at 7:29 PM on August 9, 2016


I'm honestly hoping Clinton sincerely means bipartisan governance with reasonable people

It depends how you define 'bipartisan', given how the caucuses have moved apart in recent years. Kansas offers some hope there, with the reaction to ideologues who impoverished the state. But it requires reasonable Republicans to reject in very vocal terms the idea that the elected GOP can obstruct everything for two years and then run in the mid-terms on "government is fucked up".
posted by holgate at 7:29 PM on August 9, 2016 [9 favorites]


Michael Barbaro and Amy Chozick at The New York Times: “Donald Trump’s Support Among Republican Women Starts to Slide”
posted by Going To Maine at 7:30 PM on August 9, 2016 [2 favorites]


As someone mentioned, I'm really worried that there will be a LOT of trump-supporting men who are going to try to convince their wives that they should do mail-in votes... together.
posted by Yowser at 7:32 PM on August 9, 2016 [13 favorites]


Previously linked Vox article ("Understanding Hillary") has a relevant quote from her:
“A lot of governing is the slow, hard boring of hard boards,” she says. “I don’t think there's anything sexy, exciting, or headline-grabbing about it. I think it is getting up every day, building the relationships, finding whatever sliver of common ground you can occupy, never, ever giving up in continuing to reach out even to people who are sworn political partisan adversaries.”

... the Times tallied up Clinton’s unusual alliances: “With Representative Tom DeLay it was foster children. Newt Gingrich, the former speaker of the House, jumped in with her on a health care initiative, and the Senate majority leader, Bill Frist, was a partner on legislation concerning computerized medical records. The list goes on: Senator Robert Bennett on flag-burning; Senator Rick Santorum on children's exposure to graphic images; Senator John Sununu on S.U.V. taillights; Senator Mike DeWine on asthma.”

This wasn’t an accident, and it definitely wasn’t an inevitability. “When she hired me, she said, ‘There is nobody I won’t work with,’” recalls a former Clinton staffer. “I didn’t believe it. So many of the people in the Senate had voted to impeach her husband. But it was true. There was no one she wouldn’t work with.”
That's the kind of governing I can get behind, honestly. Governing is not about winning. It's about getting stuff done.
posted by Rainbo Vagrant at 7:32 PM on August 9, 2016 [95 favorites]


Ryan presser going on... Can't pronounce "irrevocably" properly.

Sigh.
posted by modernnomad at 7:33 PM on August 9, 2016 [3 favorites]


someone argued that this year-long national dumpster fire may ultimately be a good thing – for having laid bare the long-simmering racist ugliness underneath the surface of American society (and the lengths to which the GOP will go to make apologies for it). I hope that's true.

I hope so too, but I doubt it. I think this year has made America worse for the forseeable future, that people who want to say racist and bigoted and sexist things have become emboldened by it and will double down on that if Trump wins. Even if Trump gets "only" 30% or 40% of the vote, thats an awful lot of people who are OK with open hostility and hatred. Even the worst Republican nominees/Presidents of my living memory (from Reagan on) don't hold a candle to the depths of Trump.

I'm not saying America can't eventually recover, but it will be a long long time I expect. The damage is mostly done (although it will get much much worse if by some crazy chance Trump manages to win) and its much quicker to destroy than to rebuild.
posted by thefoxgod at 7:33 PM on August 9, 2016 [7 favorites]


Did Don Lemon finally find some testicular fortitude?

No. Equivocators get no pass whether they're GOP pols or media talking heads.

I don't care if you're Susan fuckin centrist Main Street Collins. If you were too much of a coward to stand up for us when it might've made a difference, you get no quarter and no relief. You have to live with the fact that you cared more about your goddamn career than you did about the lives of your fellow citizens who are black, brown, gay, trans, disabled, leftist and/or low-income.

You have disqualified yourselves from public office and from claims of journalistic integrity. Fuck right off and find an honest line of work, such as home health care worker or retail cashier.
posted by tivalasvegas at 7:34 PM on August 9, 2016 [12 favorites]


I don't disagree with that, but I'm seeing a lot of people who have suddenly realized that they stand for something - that they stand against trumpism. That's a good thing.
posted by Rainbo Vagrant at 7:35 PM on August 9, 2016 [4 favorites]




Yeah, I'm honestly hoping Clinton sincerely means bipartisan governance with reasonable people, because there are a lot of us huddled over here weeping and we would kind of like to go back to just having different ideas and compromise without people hurling the word "traitor" around.
posted by corb at 9:10 PM on August 9


corb,

I would politely suggest that you consider that neither Obama nor Clinton has been or potentially will be, the barrier to bipartisan government in the US. It seems clear to me that the obstructionists who refuse to participate are almost exclusively members of the GOP.

For the sake of the country, we need to get every last one of them out of government.
posted by InsertNiftyNameHere at 7:36 PM on August 9, 2016 [70 favorites]


Ryan: didn't hear comments directly, sounds like a joke gone bad.
posted by modernnomad at 7:37 PM on August 9, 2016 [1 favorite]


Paul Ryan claims he didn't hear Trumps comments, but they "sound like a joke."
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 7:37 PM on Aug