"A Sea Change in the Politics of Northern Ireland"?
March 5, 2017 7:22 AM Subscribe
"When the dust finally settled Saturday on Northern Ireland's snap assembly election, it became clear a new political reality now awaits voters there. . . . The result, which also handed fewer seats to a smattering of other parties, leaves unionists without a firm majority — and thus without veto power — for the first time since Ireland was partitioned in 1921, according to Reuters. The Irish Independent reports that all told, the assembly now has '40 unionists and 39 nationalist/republicans, with the remainder of the 90 MLAs affiliated to neither tradition.'" (via NPR)
More context from NPR:
"Now, the province faces a fateful three weeks.
CNN notes that under the 1998 Good Friday peace accord, which ended three decades of sectarian violence in the region, Northern Ireland's government 'must be run jointly by unionist and nationalist parties.'
If the evenly matched parties should fail to reach a power-sharing agreement in the next three weeks — a prospect that many expect — power over Northern Ireland would be returned to British Parliament for the first time since 2007, says Reuters.
'If we can't do it in three weeks it could be a prolonged period of direct rule,' the DUP's Jeffrey Donaldson told BBC Radio, according to Reuters. 'In those circumstances, with Brexit coming down the road, we won't have our own administration to speak for us and offer the best prospect of delivering the kind of outcome we need.'"
More context from NPR:
"Now, the province faces a fateful three weeks.
CNN notes that under the 1998 Good Friday peace accord, which ended three decades of sectarian violence in the region, Northern Ireland's government 'must be run jointly by unionist and nationalist parties.'
If the evenly matched parties should fail to reach a power-sharing agreement in the next three weeks — a prospect that many expect — power over Northern Ireland would be returned to British Parliament for the first time since 2007, says Reuters.
'If we can't do it in three weeks it could be a prolonged period of direct rule,' the DUP's Jeffrey Donaldson told BBC Radio, according to Reuters. 'In those circumstances, with Brexit coming down the road, we won't have our own administration to speak for us and offer the best prospect of delivering the kind of outcome we need.'"
The loss of the DUP's majority means they can't veto stuff like equal marriage, which is by itself good news.
The other interesting thing is the rise in talk about a reunified Ireland, with NI leaving the UK, joining Ireland and retaining EU membership. This would have far fewer problems in economy and infrastructure than, say, an independent Scotland; I have no particular inisght into whether it is politically feasible or not in practice, but I have seen a sudden increase in well-argued and non-alarmist discussions about this from the non-loonies.
posted by Devonian at 8:03 AM on March 5, 2017 [10 favorites]
The other interesting thing is the rise in talk about a reunified Ireland, with NI leaving the UK, joining Ireland and retaining EU membership. This would have far fewer problems in economy and infrastructure than, say, an independent Scotland; I have no particular inisght into whether it is politically feasible or not in practice, but I have seen a sudden increase in well-argued and non-alarmist discussions about this from the non-loonies.
posted by Devonian at 8:03 AM on March 5, 2017 [10 favorites]
The old hardliners are dying off.
posted by srboisvert at 8:18 AM on March 5, 2017 [4 favorites]
posted by srboisvert at 8:18 AM on March 5, 2017 [4 favorites]
I don't think "reunified Ireland" is remotely feasible politically - I think it's still a blood-on-the-streets issue so far as the unionists are concerned - but other options might just begin to cross the line of being imaginable. Independence with British guarantees to the unionist community? Some kind of condominion under another name?
Perhaps not. Anything that gives Northern Ireland a detached status and a continuing place in the EU immediately has implications for Scotland, ones the Westminster government couldn't stomach.
posted by Segundus at 8:23 AM on March 5, 2017 [2 favorites]
Perhaps not. Anything that gives Northern Ireland a detached status and a continuing place in the EU immediately has implications for Scotland, ones the Westminster government couldn't stomach.
posted by Segundus at 8:23 AM on March 5, 2017 [2 favorites]
The old hardliners are dying off.
They said that when King Billy popped his clogs.
posted by Segundus at 8:24 AM on March 5, 2017 [6 favorites]
They said that when King Billy popped his clogs.
posted by Segundus at 8:24 AM on March 5, 2017 [6 favorites]
Does anyone have a good article about what actually changed in terms of voting patterns? Did unionist voters stay home or decamp to non-sectarian parties? Is this the result of the demographic shift that everyone has always predicted would happen?
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 8:46 AM on March 5, 2017 [3 favorites]
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 8:46 AM on March 5, 2017 [3 favorites]
CNN notes that under the 1998 Good Friday peace accord, which ended three decades of sectarian violence in the region, Northern Ireland's government 'must be run jointly by unionist and nationalist parties.'So what happens if/when nobody votes for unionist or nationalist parties?
Also I can't see a reunited Ireland happening any time soon. Anyone I've talked to about it here in the Republic doesn't particularly want that to happen. Economic worries and the cost involved are big issues.
posted by Fence at 10:42 AM on March 5, 2017 [3 favorites]
It probably helps to understand the context of the snap election - in brief, when she was Minister for Enterprise, Arlene Foster set up a scheme to subsidize and encourage the use of renewable energy sources such as wood pellets. It turned out that the subsidy effectively paid people £1.60 for every £1 they spent on wood pellets - ie you could make money just by buying and burning as much of the stuff as you could. The bill for this is estimated at around £500 million. There's a timeline here.
By the time this all came to light, Ms Foster was the DUP leader and First Minister. She only survived a no confidence motion due to the slightly fiddly rules about cross-community agreement in Stormont - numerically she lost. The election was called because the deputy First Minister resigned in January.
The DUP have generally tried to make out that this whole thing is "misogynistic" and "purely political", ie nothing to do with their role in a colossal waste of public money, and their campaign generally seemed to run along the lines of "please vote for us otherwise Those People (ie Sinn Fein) will get in", and completely ignoring the RHI scandal.
For some reason the DUP seem to have not done well out of this situation electorally. Sinn Fein are refusing to participate in a new Assembly with Foster as first minister unless she steps aside pending an inquiry into RHI - she is refusing to do so.
posted by doop at 10:43 AM on March 5, 2017 [10 favorites]
By the time this all came to light, Ms Foster was the DUP leader and First Minister. She only survived a no confidence motion due to the slightly fiddly rules about cross-community agreement in Stormont - numerically she lost. The election was called because the deputy First Minister resigned in January.
The DUP have generally tried to make out that this whole thing is "misogynistic" and "purely political", ie nothing to do with their role in a colossal waste of public money, and their campaign generally seemed to run along the lines of "please vote for us otherwise Those People (ie Sinn Fein) will get in", and completely ignoring the RHI scandal.
For some reason the DUP seem to have not done well out of this situation electorally. Sinn Fein are refusing to participate in a new Assembly with Foster as first minister unless she steps aside pending an inquiry into RHI - she is refusing to do so.
posted by doop at 10:43 AM on March 5, 2017 [10 favorites]
There were less seats available this time. Alliance increased their share of the vote - they're a more moderate, "cross community" party. There was a push for people to use all their transferable votes (our votes are under the PR system) and in some constituencies UUP voters gave their transfers to SDLP to keep the DUP out, and vice versa. The DUP vote was down slightly but not as much as some of us hoped given the RHI scandal, which is what triggered the recent Stormont dissolution and subsequent election. Arlene Foster has been accused of motivating the Sinn Féin vote by her behaviour over the whole thing, and especially by using Gerry Adams' name when talking about Sinn Féin (routinely saying "Sinn Féin/Gerry Adams" the way the DUP used to say "Sinn Féin/IRA") and that pissed off Republican voters for whom Adams is a hero.
There are plenty of hardline politicians on both sides coming up, and I can't see a United Ireland as even a remote possibility at this stage. There are too many tensions on the ground still. But the first thing that my friends and I said when we heard they lost the veto was "marriage equality" so that's a good thing, although unfortunately abortion rights are still nowhere near the table as Nationalist are generally just as opposed to it as Unionists. Some articles on the Belfast Telegraph and Irish News (for balance - both local papers, one considered Unionist, one Nationalist). The feeling is that Sinn Féin are now emboldened and will refuse to power share unless they have the Equality Agenda implemented, and the Unionists won't agree, and SF think they'll get that under Direct Rule anyway, so we're expecting Stormont will go into suspension more than likely.
posted by billiebee at 10:47 AM on March 5, 2017 [10 favorites]
There are plenty of hardline politicians on both sides coming up, and I can't see a United Ireland as even a remote possibility at this stage. There are too many tensions on the ground still. But the first thing that my friends and I said when we heard they lost the veto was "marriage equality" so that's a good thing, although unfortunately abortion rights are still nowhere near the table as Nationalist are generally just as opposed to it as Unionists. Some articles on the Belfast Telegraph and Irish News (for balance - both local papers, one considered Unionist, one Nationalist). The feeling is that Sinn Féin are now emboldened and will refuse to power share unless they have the Equality Agenda implemented, and the Unionists won't agree, and SF think they'll get that under Direct Rule anyway, so we're expecting Stormont will go into suspension more than likely.
posted by billiebee at 10:47 AM on March 5, 2017 [10 favorites]
The other interesting thing is the rise in talk about a reunified Ireland, with NI leaving the UK, joining Ireland and retaining EU membership. This would have far fewer problems in economy and infrastructure than, say, an independent Scotland; I have no particular inisght into whether it is politically feasible or not in practice, but I have seen a sudden increase in well-argued and non-alarmist discussions about this from the non-loonies.
Sure. Yeah. Let's restart The Troubles with even greater capabilities for state surveillance and potential for dirty/biological bombs being used by terrorists.
I hate to say this but people advocating reunification are NOT the non-loonies in this scenario.
posted by Talez at 10:53 AM on March 5, 2017 [2 favorites]
Sure. Yeah. Let's restart The Troubles with even greater capabilities for state surveillance and potential for dirty/biological bombs being used by terrorists.
I hate to say this but people advocating reunification are NOT the non-loonies in this scenario.
posted by Talez at 10:53 AM on March 5, 2017 [2 favorites]
People aren't loonies for suggesting it, they're just not being realistic.
posted by billiebee at 11:00 AM on March 5, 2017 [4 favorites]
posted by billiebee at 11:00 AM on March 5, 2017 [4 favorites]
In an uncertain world, some kind of non-English alliance between the Republic, the North and Scotland is at least worth considering.
posted by stonepharisee at 11:08 AM on March 5, 2017 [4 favorites]
posted by stonepharisee at 11:08 AM on March 5, 2017 [4 favorites]
In an uncertain world, some kind of non-English alliance between the Republic, the North and Scotland is at least worth considering.
United Other Kingdom?
posted by Talez at 11:09 AM on March 5, 2017 [3 favorites]
United Other Kingdom?
posted by Talez at 11:09 AM on March 5, 2017 [3 favorites]
You could probably form an alliance out of everyone not living in greater london
posted by fido~depravo at 11:20 AM on March 5, 2017
posted by fido~depravo at 11:20 AM on March 5, 2017
You could probably form an alliance out of everyone not living in greater londonI think this is a fantasy about finding a way around Brexit, so that's probably not the alliance people are looking for. But it's one of those ideas that is fun to play around with but isn't actually going to happen anytime soon and therefore isn't relevant to the current political mess.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 11:41 AM on March 5, 2017
Arlene Foster set up a scheme to subsidize and encourage the use of renewable energy sources such as wood pellets. It turned out that the subsidy effectively paid people £1.60 for every £1 they spent on wood pellets - ie you could make money just by buying and burning as much of the stuff as you could.
This was really odd, GB (ie UK minus NI) has been one of the first countries to sport out an incentive specific to renewable heat and it took them over 5 years to do so because it is hard to avoid this sort of perverse incentive. The NI mechanism seems to have just been made up without any resort to learning from the GB experience (NI has a separate energy system, regulator and body of regulation) and they basically walked right into an incredibly basic error. i would really like to know what underlay the whole process of adopting it.
posted by biffa at 1:09 PM on March 5, 2017 [2 favorites]
This was really odd, GB (ie UK minus NI) has been one of the first countries to sport out an incentive specific to renewable heat and it took them over 5 years to do so because it is hard to avoid this sort of perverse incentive. The NI mechanism seems to have just been made up without any resort to learning from the GB experience (NI has a separate energy system, regulator and body of regulation) and they basically walked right into an incredibly basic error. i would really like to know what underlay the whole process of adopting it.
posted by biffa at 1:09 PM on March 5, 2017 [2 favorites]
The DUP don't even believe in climate change. The whole process was greenlit to gift free money to their supporters - many rural farmers are DUP voters and that's who were mainly profiting from the incentive. They walked into the error because they knew exactly what it meant. That SF didn't support a recent vote of no confidence in Foster suggests to me that plenty of SF voting farmers were also benefiting. Martin McGuinness is clearly in ill health, although they haven't admitted it publically we all know it, and his stepping down was nominally in protest at Foster's refusal to resign but was an easy way for them to transition McGuinness out and look like they were holding the moral high ground. The corruption here is gross and tons of MLAs were in it up to their necks, cross-party, though no doubt DUP were the worst and did their usual heel-digging when confronted with the facts, and that's why we were hoping they'd get a bloody nose at the polls. But they're all as fucking bad. TL;DR it was adopted error and all to suit the sleekit money-grabbing bastards on the Hill.
posted by billiebee at 1:21 PM on March 5, 2017 [9 favorites]
posted by billiebee at 1:21 PM on March 5, 2017 [9 favorites]
"A Sea Change in the Politics of Northern Ireland"?
Careful, there may be a Catch-22!
posted by thelonius at 1:24 PM on March 5, 2017
Careful, there may be a Catch-22!
posted by thelonius at 1:24 PM on March 5, 2017
Thanks for that billiebee, it does make me think about looking into it a bit more.
posted by biffa at 1:33 PM on March 5, 2017
posted by biffa at 1:33 PM on March 5, 2017
Oh actually, he admitted in January he was ill, apologies. I avoid 90% of local news for self-care reasons.
posted by billiebee at 1:33 PM on March 5, 2017 [2 favorites]
posted by billiebee at 1:33 PM on March 5, 2017 [2 favorites]
biffa local BBC tv and radio presenter Stephen Nolan had a special investigation show just before Christmas which gives the best overview up to that point, before the Assembly collapsed. It's still available on iPlayer. The DUP were especially aggrieved at the mean old beeb for being unkind to them, and Arlene pulled a Trump after the election by refusing to be interviewed by them.
posted by billiebee at 1:36 PM on March 5, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by billiebee at 1:36 PM on March 5, 2017 [1 favorite]
A reunified Ireland is a false flashpoint and a complete non-starter. People in the North can feel however they want to feel about it, but it can't happen without the consent of the Republic of Ireland. The idea that the South is sitting down here just longing for the joyful day when we reunite with our long lost cousins over the wall like this is post-war Berlin is a romantic notion held until you ask people in the Republic if they're still keen if they have to pay for it, in which case the numbers fall through the basement.
Regardless, though, the biggest problem isn't this election. It's Brexit and the threat of a hard border, which would be an absolute catastrophe and cannot happen. How we're all going to make that not happen is a bit of an open question, since Westminster appears to not give a fuck about the consequences of re-instating border points. And won't, until someone starts shooting the people posted to those shiny new stationary targets and we all roll the clock back 25 years.
posted by DarlingBri at 2:02 PM on March 5, 2017 [5 favorites]
Regardless, though, the biggest problem isn't this election. It's Brexit and the threat of a hard border, which would be an absolute catastrophe and cannot happen. How we're all going to make that not happen is a bit of an open question, since Westminster appears to not give a fuck about the consequences of re-instating border points. And won't, until someone starts shooting the people posted to those shiny new stationary targets and we all roll the clock back 25 years.
posted by DarlingBri at 2:02 PM on March 5, 2017 [5 favorites]
"our long lost cousins"
I mean to some people here it's "brothers and sisters" - we were one people. But we know that the South doesn't give a shit about us or they wouldn't have sold us out in 1922, and one of the really annoying things about the reunification debate is Southerners saying "Well you know actually we don't want you back" and we're like "we fucking know ok?"
But yes, a United Ireland is a red herring and the real-life border that the rest of the UK blithely foisted upon us in the Brexit vote is a real concern. As is the loss of EU support and funding which, as Donaldson points out, loathe as I am to agree with him on anything, is going to be even harder to negotiate favourable terms over with no direct Assembly intervention.
posted by billiebee at 2:22 PM on March 5, 2017 [6 favorites]
I mean to some people here it's "brothers and sisters" - we were one people. But we know that the South doesn't give a shit about us or they wouldn't have sold us out in 1922, and one of the really annoying things about the reunification debate is Southerners saying "Well you know actually we don't want you back" and we're like "we fucking know ok?"
But yes, a United Ireland is a red herring and the real-life border that the rest of the UK blithely foisted upon us in the Brexit vote is a real concern. As is the loss of EU support and funding which, as Donaldson points out, loathe as I am to agree with him on anything, is going to be even harder to negotiate favourable terms over with no direct Assembly intervention.
posted by billiebee at 2:22 PM on March 5, 2017 [6 favorites]
Regardless, though, the biggest problem isn't this election. It's Brexit and the threat of a hard border, which would be an absolute catastrophe and cannot happen.
Ireland isn't part of Schengen so the CTA should continue on as it always has and the Irish will show passports on all flights except within GB.
posted by Talez at 3:16 PM on March 5, 2017
Ireland isn't part of Schengen so the CTA should continue on as it always has and the Irish will show passports on all flights except within GB.
posted by Talez at 3:16 PM on March 5, 2017
Talez, the CTA is not the issue. The border between Northern Ireland and the Republic is the issue.
posted by DarlingBri at 3:21 PM on March 5, 2017 [3 favorites]
posted by DarlingBri at 3:21 PM on March 5, 2017 [3 favorites]
Talez, the UK government is planning to leave the European Customs Union, and other Supranational European Bodies that will mean that there ends up being some kind of official border check in place.
As far as I can tell, the eventual aim is that the UK is stuck on the outside of that Venn diagram like Kazakhstan (and unlike Russia, Belarus and Turkey, famous developed free countries).
posted by ambrosen at 3:27 PM on March 5, 2017 [3 favorites]
As far as I can tell, the eventual aim is that the UK is stuck on the outside of that Venn diagram like Kazakhstan (and unlike Russia, Belarus and Turkey, famous developed free countries).
posted by ambrosen at 3:27 PM on March 5, 2017 [3 favorites]
Talez, the CTA is not the issue. The border between Northern Ireland and the Republic is the issue.
Uhhhh.... The CTA is what keeps that border open.
posted by Talez at 3:27 PM on March 5, 2017
Uhhhh.... The CTA is what keeps that border open.
posted by Talez at 3:27 PM on March 5, 2017
Talez: For many Leave voters, Brexit is about controlling immigration, and that requires closed borders. How will the UK stop EU citizens arriving in the UK without a hard border between Northern Ireland and Ireland?
That the current Tory government doesn't seem to have spent any time considering how badly this issue could play out should tell you everything about how badly the Brexit negotiations could go. We're being led by incompetents and demagogues.
posted by mushhushshu at 4:37 PM on March 5, 2017 [9 favorites]
That the current Tory government doesn't seem to have spent any time considering how badly this issue could play out should tell you everything about how badly the Brexit negotiations could go. We're being led by incompetents and demagogues.
posted by mushhushshu at 4:37 PM on March 5, 2017 [9 favorites]
Also I can't see a reunited Ireland happening any time soon. Anyone I've talked to about it here in the Republic doesn't particularly want that to happen. Economic worries and the cost involved are big issues.
I think that might be the case now, but if the UK screws this up and we're back to a hard border and the Troubles and a failure of the Good Friday agreement, a lot will change, because then who knows how things play out.
Ireland isn't part of Schengen so the CTA should continue on as it always has and the Irish will show passports on all flights except within GB.
Well, it should continue, but given that at one point the Brexit minister forgot we were an independent nation, it would be as risky to assume that as to assume Donald Trump ever speaks truth. And what if the EU pressurizes us to join Schengen? We don't exactly have a lot of bargaining power. The whole thing is going to be an enormous mess, and it's not made better by the fact that no one really has thought through to what if the worst happens, and the Irish lose their favoured status in the UK as immigrants.
posted by lesbiassparrow at 8:27 PM on March 5, 2017
I think that might be the case now, but if the UK screws this up and we're back to a hard border and the Troubles and a failure of the Good Friday agreement, a lot will change, because then who knows how things play out.
Ireland isn't part of Schengen so the CTA should continue on as it always has and the Irish will show passports on all flights except within GB.
Well, it should continue, but given that at one point the Brexit minister forgot we were an independent nation, it would be as risky to assume that as to assume Donald Trump ever speaks truth. And what if the EU pressurizes us to join Schengen? We don't exactly have a lot of bargaining power. The whole thing is going to be an enormous mess, and it's not made better by the fact that no one really has thought through to what if the worst happens, and the Irish lose their favoured status in the UK as immigrants.
posted by lesbiassparrow at 8:27 PM on March 5, 2017
If being outside Schengen was enough for the brexit lot, there would probably have been a different result.
This was a mixed election. The DUP kept their own base mobilised by amping up the threat of Sinn Fein and taking hardline positions like "No Irish Language Act ever!" or cancelling the £50,000 gaeltacht bursary fund. Sinn Fein were then effectively able to say to nationalist voters - "you guys gonna stand for this?". Together this boosted nationalist turnout.
Calling the Shinners a hungry crocodile that, if you give them anything, will keep coming back for more, was also a mistake. It highlighted DUP arrogance, made them look like a dishonest partner and gave Gerry Adams the opportunity to reply "See you later, alligator!" The number of people campaigning or voting (for SF) while wearing crocodile costumes shows the motivating effect this had.
On the plus side, people like Nelson McCausland lost his seat andcross community transfers helped get people like Pat Catney (SDLP) elected in Lagan Valley or Clare Bailey (for the Greens) elected in South Belfast at the expense of Emma Little Pengelly, a particularly irritating DUPer. Without this, the DUP might still have unilateral power to issue petitions of concern.
posted by knapah at 11:27 PM on March 5, 2017 [1 favorite]
This was a mixed election. The DUP kept their own base mobilised by amping up the threat of Sinn Fein and taking hardline positions like "No Irish Language Act ever!" or cancelling the £50,000 gaeltacht bursary fund. Sinn Fein were then effectively able to say to nationalist voters - "you guys gonna stand for this?". Together this boosted nationalist turnout.
Calling the Shinners a hungry crocodile that, if you give them anything, will keep coming back for more, was also a mistake. It highlighted DUP arrogance, made them look like a dishonest partner and gave Gerry Adams the opportunity to reply "See you later, alligator!" The number of people campaigning or voting (for SF) while wearing crocodile costumes shows the motivating effect this had.
On the plus side, people like Nelson McCausland lost his seat andcross community transfers helped get people like Pat Catney (SDLP) elected in Lagan Valley or Clare Bailey (for the Greens) elected in South Belfast at the expense of Emma Little Pengelly, a particularly irritating DUPer. Without this, the DUP might still have unilateral power to issue petitions of concern.
posted by knapah at 11:27 PM on March 5, 2017 [1 favorite]
Clare Bailey (for the Greens) elected in South Belfast at the expense of Emma Little Pengelly
That was my favourite result. Bailey is my MLA - an actual pro-choice representative with a manifesto not based on sectarian politics, who'da thought?! - and I was worried that she'd lose her seat so soon after winning it last time. That Little Pengelly lost was a bonus, and of course it was someone else's fault.
posted by billiebee at 12:19 AM on March 6, 2017 [3 favorites]
That was my favourite result. Bailey is my MLA - an actual pro-choice representative with a manifesto not based on sectarian politics, who'da thought?! - and I was worried that she'd lose her seat so soon after winning it last time. That Little Pengelly lost was a bonus, and of course it was someone else's fault.
posted by billiebee at 12:19 AM on March 6, 2017 [3 favorites]
Absolutely. I was delighted to see her get back in, even if I did have to stay up way too late #awake4bailey!
posted by knapah at 1:50 AM on March 6, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by knapah at 1:50 AM on March 6, 2017 [1 favorite]
Twitter has been awesome. #votetilyouboke And @LADFLEG has been doing sterling work.
posted by billiebee at 3:10 AM on March 6, 2017 [2 favorites]
posted by billiebee at 3:10 AM on March 6, 2017 [2 favorites]
I've actually been in London & Dublin the past couple of weeks. Interesting to watch as an outsider. Anecdote, of course, but the concern I hear most consistently is what DarlingBri pointed out: going back to a hard border is going to suck for everyone involved.
posted by kjs3 at 10:07 AM on March 6, 2017
posted by kjs3 at 10:07 AM on March 6, 2017
You could probably form an alliance out of everyone not living in greater london
Eh? When it comes to Brexit, London is in agreement with Scotland, Northern Island and most (but not all) major cities. It's most of rural and suburban England and Wales who want to leave.
posted by rhymer at 12:47 PM on March 6, 2017 [2 favorites]
Eh? When it comes to Brexit, London is in agreement with Scotland, Northern Island and most (but not all) major cities. It's most of rural and suburban England and Wales who want to leave.
posted by rhymer at 12:47 PM on March 6, 2017 [2 favorites]
You could probably form an alliance out of everyone not living in greater londonI think this is a fantasy about finding a way around Brexit, so that's probably not the alliance people are looking for. But it's one of those ideas that is fun to play around with but isn't actually going to happen anytime soon and therefore isn't relevant to the current political mess.
If this is part of a fantasy of going around Brexit all I can say is "You don't have the votes!"And you certainly won't without London.
More accurately Westminster is not controlled from Greater London and London, Manchester, Birmingham, and other major urban areas voted strongly against Brexit - only five of London's boroughs voted Leave. If you cut London out of the equation then Westminster (or wherever it moves to) gets even more heavily run by rural and Suburban England and the Home Counties than it already is. And the Tory majority goes up 15.
Right now the Labour Party is an alliance between the cities. Remain only had a heartland inside the M25 (the other cities were very split), in Scotland, and in Northern Ireland. Your alliance formed out of everyone not living in Greater London is one that was behind the coalition, is strongly behind Brexit, and in which UKIP is powerful.
Is that the alliance you actually want? Brexit Max, Tory Max? Because if it means home rule for London and we get to remain in the EU I for one will take it. And we will no longer be blamed for rural and suburban England imposing Westminster on us.
posted by Francis at 2:37 AM on March 7, 2017 [2 favorites]
I think the idea is that an independent Scotland and Northern Ireland would get to stay in the EU, and England and Wales could take care of their own problems. That would be sad for the political minority in England and Wales, but that's not the primary consideration of the people to whom the fantasy appeals. (And my guess is that this is more of a Scottish fantasy than a Northern Irish one. Brexit has got to be an especially bitter pill for Scottish people who voted their heads, not their hearts, and rejected independence partly because they were afraid an independent Scotland wouldn't get to be in the EU.)
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 5:20 AM on March 7, 2017
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 5:20 AM on March 7, 2017
« Older Janoschs Traumstunde | Red Families and Blue Families Newer »
This thread has been archived and is closed to new comments
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 7:42 AM on March 5, 2017 [5 favorites]